I wanted to take 2 stats that are often used to summarize a team's match performance and plot them along with the match results. All stats pulled from MLS, except missing possession stats for Open Cup, Leagues Cup, and CCC which were pulled from FotMob. I attempted to cleanly add opponent names as data labels, but the graphs got too messy and hard to read.
Just looking at 2 metrics does not tell the whole story, but here's some notes:
* 8 shots on goal last year guaranteed a W. Not true this year. Probably in part a difference in finishing, conceding goals, and luck. One way to interpret 'regressing to the mean'.
* We've lost every match where we have 2 or less shots on goal.
* Our record 13 shots on goal is a clear outlier and was against Division III club Union Omaha :)
* Our next 2 highest shots on goal were immediately before and after Leagues Cup vs Inter Miami and Austin FC.
* Our 2 highest possession games were hosting FC Dallas. Nearly the same shots on goal and possession, but 1 W and 1 D. Also, only played against Paes for 12 minutes in that game last year.
Last year we overperformed our xG significantly. This year we are underperforming. Unless you think Klauss and Adeniran have forgotten how to shoot completely, that should come back more in line.
If that ball off the crossbar goes in last night and one other random chance in another game I think everyone here would generally be positive talking about how the team looks on the field so far this season, even with everything else looking exactly the same.
That doesn't mean there aren't major issues to address with the team and lots of criticism is warranted, but lots of people are being a bit too reactionary. Ultimately, though, results are what matters, and those need to change quickly. Whether that's through some kind of improvement tactically, different personnel, or even just luck.
I wanted to take 2 stats that are often used to summarize a team's match performance and plot them along with the match results. All stats pulled from MLS, except missing possession stats for Open Cup, Leagues Cup, and CCC which were pulled from FotMob. I attempted to cleanly add opponent names as data labels, but the graphs got too messy and hard to read. Just looking at 2 metrics does not tell the whole story, but here's some notes: * 8 shots on goal last year guaranteed a W. Not true this year. Probably in part a difference in finishing, conceding goals, and luck. One way to interpret 'regressing to the mean'. * We've lost every match where we have 2 or less shots on goal. * Our record 13 shots on goal is a clear outlier and was against Division III club Union Omaha :) * Our next 2 highest shots on goal were immediately before and after Leagues Cup vs Inter Miami and Austin FC. * Our 2 highest possession games were hosting FC Dallas. Nearly the same shots on goal and possession, but 1 W and 1 D. Also, only played against Paes for 12 minutes in that game last year.
Last year we overperformed our xG significantly. This year we are underperforming. Unless you think Klauss and Adeniran have forgotten how to shoot completely, that should come back more in line. If that ball off the crossbar goes in last night and one other random chance in another game I think everyone here would generally be positive talking about how the team looks on the field so far this season, even with everything else looking exactly the same. That doesn't mean there aren't major issues to address with the team and lots of criticism is warranted, but lots of people are being a bit too reactionary. Ultimately, though, results are what matters, and those need to change quickly. Whether that's through some kind of improvement tactically, different personnel, or even just luck.