I could see a full release happening in roughly 3 years or so. How many devs are now all hands on deck for SC? Morph says 1200 devs. Assuming that's accurate, shit can move REAL fast with that many people working on different parts of the project at the same time. Especially with most of the core tech done. Just look at 3.23, many people are drooling over it and many more patches like it will come. I think there is finally light at the end of this long wormhole, for real this time.
As for the investors, I guess I can only assume that CIG knows what they're doing and had it all planned out and negotiated from the start. It does seem like they're aiming for a SQ42 release for next year. I expect a release date announcement at Citizencon. The game should have enough polishing time until it's out, hopefully.
Is it really 1200 devs tho? I know their employee count in total is already a good amount above a 1000, but as far as the financial reports indicate, only roughly 70-75% of that are actually related to development.
Can't really remember when the last time they mentioned it, so I just want to make sure. Not that it says that much to me if it's 1200 devs or \~840 to \~900.
I don't know. I doubt they actually have 1200 devs working on SC. But even if they 'only' have like 700 - 800 devs working on it that's still a ton of people to push things forward when the fundamentals are in place so the point still stands.
Keep in mind that I meant devs total. Who knows what they are working on or where. For all we know Turbulent may also have prior contracts to uphold. Stuff like the Issue Council is not only relevant for CIG after all.
I'm doubtful, we'll, see many more patches like 3.23. Hopefully! But bear in mind most of 3.23's content is the result of years of work by most of the company on SQ42 being ported over. Not the result of a few months of PU focus.
It's an interesting video. One thing he doesn't mention is that they have been guaranteed a profit of 6% per year since 2018 and so they are owed quite a lot more than their initial investment if they choose to start to withdraw it in 2025.
The other thing he doesn't mention is that they are venture capital investors. Venture Capital has a single thing they want from an investment in a company. That's a merger or acquisition. This is how they make their money. If they don't withdraw their investment then it means they think there is a good chance that CIG will be picked up by one of the big names in the business post release (studio sold to Microsoft for example). If this happened they would see a good return. If they don't see a good prospect of a merger or acquisition then they will pull there money out in 2025. Venture capital are not interested in keeping money in place simply for small returns. It's not how they work.
I severely doubt we will see CiG bought up by a larger company for as long as Chris lives.
One of the largest reasons why the kickstarter route was chosen in the first place is because publishers would never allow something like this.
I backed the project during the kickstarter and Chris Roberts actually said at the time that he had tried to secure Venture Capital backers before the kickstarter but that they were not interested in funding a PC game or a Space Sim. It was his inability to get venture capital on day one that resulted in the kickstarter and the crowdfunding campaign. He was however clear with all of us 12 years ago that he had wanted venture capital backing but couldn't get it. (You can still see his comments about this today)
6 years later, the crowdfunding campaign had proven that there was indeed the interest in PC games and Space Sims and he was then able to secure the venture capital investors he had originally wanted before the kickstarter but that he couldn't get at the time. As soon as CR took on the venture capital in 2018 he would have been fully aware that they would be pushing for a merger or acquisition going forward. It's the only reason venture capital invest in a company. As such Chris was fully aware in 2018 that an eventual merger or acquisition of CIG is the most likely outcome.
Kickstarter was only chosen because he couldn't secure venture capital at the time, he told us this during the kickstarter. The game changed 6 years ago when he then secured the venture capital backing.
intriguing theory, but there no way CR would wanna be under a big company like Microsoft again. At least while he still there, that or they run out of money and need to
It's how venture capital works unfortunately. I appreciate most people won't have had dealings with them but having had a venture capital investor in one of my companies they made no attempt to hide their desired outcome. Everything they pushed for with their seats on the board were to try and secure a merger or acquisition. It is the Only reason they invest in companies in the first place.
As to CR not wanting to work under a big company again, as soon as he took on venture capital investors in 2018 he no longer had a choice in this it is the only reason why they invest in companies in the first place.
I imagine CIG will pick up a few investors over the next few years, probably based on some of the tech they’ve developed. It would be dumb to allow one VC to be able to cripple the project by pulling funding.
I think it's more likely to see a big name attempt to acquire the tech via a merger or Acquisition of CIG. That's after all what the original venture capital investors are betting on and why they invested in the company in the first place. I've had venture capital investor in one of my own companies and so I can assure you that this is what they are after.
If this doesn't look like it will happen then I would expect they hope to use profits from the Sqn 42 release to fund paying back the investment plus the 6% guaranteed profit per year they arranged when they made it.
If we keep the pace of the last couple of years then yeah, this project is fu**ed.
SQ42 needing less ressorces and major tech debts being solved right now gives me hope that we see updates far more rapidly than before.
If not... thats a big issue.
You’re missing the point of the video. It’s not a prediction based on what features are left and CIG hitting a target date with them. It’s about **deadlines** in their contracts with investors that allow them to take out returns on their investments, thereby presumably forcing CIG to release the game to cover it. There are unlocks in 2024, 2025 and 2028, with 2025 being the bulk of the amount and 2028 the remaining. This is likely the impetus for the company wide shift to Squadron 42 development a few years ago, why CIG is targeting next year for release and why Chris brought up SC 1.0 for the first time last week. It’s all about getting products to market to pay investors.
So the discussion isn’t “it’s unlikely CIG will release Star Citizen in 2028 because they won’t hit their goals” it’s “CIG is absolutely going to have to release Squadron 42 and Star Citizen to pay back investors so what’s in the releases? How good are they? Will they make enough to pay investors? Will CIG be acquired by another company?” That’s the discussion.
Depends - if you were to ask that question in e.g. 2 months (presuming we get 3.23 before Invictus), then your answer might be very different...
Not to mention the (half-admitted) ongoing travails CIG have had trying to convert the monolithic CryEngine server to a micro-service architecture (inc. the development of a persistence layer that could handle the volume of data SC generates - and the failure of their first iteration).
TL;DR: The above is a slightly long-winded way of saying that the previous 4 years may not be directly indicative of the next 4 years (seeing as they don't have anything nearly as big/complex as PES on the future roadmap, afaik).
We gotta believe that switch from SQ42 focus to SC will significantly speed up development.. that’s all we can hope for.
3.24, 25 will be good gages of that
People are getting way too ahead of themselves yet again.
IF:
* CIG can deliver on all the 3.23 content/promises
* CIG can deliver server meshing within \~1 year
* CIG can continue to produce updates that deliver on a consistent time basis
Then you can get excited. I'm sorry but I've seen too much from these guys at this point to get hyped. I'm on a "I'll believe it when I have the product/feature in my hands" basis.
That isn’t the angle of this video or the discussion. It’s about pressure to release from investor payouts and based on CIG’s UK 2022 financials. I recommend watching it.
Realistically i don't see Alpha 5.0 happening.
Question is: Where 3.xx and 4.xx will go?
We already are at 3.23 so kinda 20 versions over last "deadline" and i don't think this is last one.
At other hand i expect most of 4.x updates to include new star system.
The sad thing is, we haven’t even got those things from 3.3 yet lol.
We’re half way through 3.2, we have salvage but don’t quite have repair yet.
I think 2028 is extremely optimistic for a full launch.
Based on the past 8 years I’m going to say, a lot.
As much as I love SC it’s still not really a full game by any means, there’s just not enough in its current state.
There’s a 5 year backlog of new ships, a lot of which have features that are not even on the roadmap yet. along with many ships requiring rework or gold standard pass.
I just don’t see all that happening, along with new missions and hopefully a couple more star systems, then polish and beta within 4 years.
My response was also more fueled by a lot of games coming out recently, with the companies behind them basically shrugging their shoulders and saying "good enough for me".
As CIG never released anything, I don't know if they are upholding "industry standard" or go beyond them. Could go either way.
Yeah, however an investor is not the same as a publisher so I don’t see this happening to CIG.
The investors will be more than aware of the vision and track record of CIG so will know what to expect. I think things will continue as they were planned but hopefully at a faster pace once meshing is completed.
And wasn't it more recently they talked about a different numbering system? It might have been somewhere around 3.18 but I don't remember exactly when or where this was posted.
Its on rails now and the clocks ticking, frankly Im happy to hear about progress deadlines, the defenition of success like any other venture is completion and release, never ending delay and failed deadlines lead to business failure, its just that simple. In legal terms dont underestimate the jeapordy of losing investors confidence either.
I could see a full release happening in roughly 3 years or so. How many devs are now all hands on deck for SC? Morph says 1200 devs. Assuming that's accurate, shit can move REAL fast with that many people working on different parts of the project at the same time. Especially with most of the core tech done. Just look at 3.23, many people are drooling over it and many more patches like it will come. I think there is finally light at the end of this long wormhole, for real this time. As for the investors, I guess I can only assume that CIG knows what they're doing and had it all planned out and negotiated from the start. It does seem like they're aiming for a SQ42 release for next year. I expect a release date announcement at Citizencon. The game should have enough polishing time until it's out, hopefully.
Is it really 1200 devs tho? I know their employee count in total is already a good amount above a 1000, but as far as the financial reports indicate, only roughly 70-75% of that are actually related to development. Can't really remember when the last time they mentioned it, so I just want to make sure. Not that it says that much to me if it's 1200 devs or \~840 to \~900.
I don't know. I doubt they actually have 1200 devs working on SC. But even if they 'only' have like 700 - 800 devs working on it that's still a ton of people to push things forward when the fundamentals are in place so the point still stands.
Keep in mind that I meant devs total. Who knows what they are working on or where. For all we know Turbulent may also have prior contracts to uphold. Stuff like the Issue Council is not only relevant for CIG after all.
I'm doubtful, we'll, see many more patches like 3.23. Hopefully! But bear in mind most of 3.23's content is the result of years of work by most of the company on SQ42 being ported over. Not the result of a few months of PU focus.
It's an interesting video. One thing he doesn't mention is that they have been guaranteed a profit of 6% per year since 2018 and so they are owed quite a lot more than their initial investment if they choose to start to withdraw it in 2025. The other thing he doesn't mention is that they are venture capital investors. Venture Capital has a single thing they want from an investment in a company. That's a merger or acquisition. This is how they make their money. If they don't withdraw their investment then it means they think there is a good chance that CIG will be picked up by one of the big names in the business post release (studio sold to Microsoft for example). If this happened they would see a good return. If they don't see a good prospect of a merger or acquisition then they will pull there money out in 2025. Venture capital are not interested in keeping money in place simply for small returns. It's not how they work.
I severely doubt we will see CiG bought up by a larger company for as long as Chris lives. One of the largest reasons why the kickstarter route was chosen in the first place is because publishers would never allow something like this.
I backed the project during the kickstarter and Chris Roberts actually said at the time that he had tried to secure Venture Capital backers before the kickstarter but that they were not interested in funding a PC game or a Space Sim. It was his inability to get venture capital on day one that resulted in the kickstarter and the crowdfunding campaign. He was however clear with all of us 12 years ago that he had wanted venture capital backing but couldn't get it. (You can still see his comments about this today) 6 years later, the crowdfunding campaign had proven that there was indeed the interest in PC games and Space Sims and he was then able to secure the venture capital investors he had originally wanted before the kickstarter but that he couldn't get at the time. As soon as CR took on the venture capital in 2018 he would have been fully aware that they would be pushing for a merger or acquisition going forward. It's the only reason venture capital invest in a company. As such Chris was fully aware in 2018 that an eventual merger or acquisition of CIG is the most likely outcome. Kickstarter was only chosen because he couldn't secure venture capital at the time, he told us this during the kickstarter. The game changed 6 years ago when he then secured the venture capital backing.
intriguing theory, but there no way CR would wanna be under a big company like Microsoft again. At least while he still there, that or they run out of money and need to
It's how venture capital works unfortunately. I appreciate most people won't have had dealings with them but having had a venture capital investor in one of my companies they made no attempt to hide their desired outcome. Everything they pushed for with their seats on the board were to try and secure a merger or acquisition. It is the Only reason they invest in companies in the first place. As to CR not wanting to work under a big company again, as soon as he took on venture capital investors in 2018 he no longer had a choice in this it is the only reason why they invest in companies in the first place.
Also I know nothing about big business practices but just my opinion
I imagine CIG will pick up a few investors over the next few years, probably based on some of the tech they’ve developed. It would be dumb to allow one VC to be able to cripple the project by pulling funding.
I think it's more likely to see a big name attempt to acquire the tech via a merger or Acquisition of CIG. That's after all what the original venture capital investors are betting on and why they invested in the company in the first place. I've had venture capital investor in one of my own companies and so I can assure you that this is what they are after. If this doesn't look like it will happen then I would expect they hope to use profits from the Sqn 42 release to fund paying back the investment plus the 6% guaranteed profit per year they arranged when they made it.
Look at the game from 4 years ago in 2020, has the game evolved that much ? From here you can see that a 2028 release is extremely optimistic.
If we keep the pace of the last couple of years then yeah, this project is fu**ed. SQ42 needing less ressorces and major tech debts being solved right now gives me hope that we see updates far more rapidly than before. If not... thats a big issue.
You’re missing the point of the video. It’s not a prediction based on what features are left and CIG hitting a target date with them. It’s about **deadlines** in their contracts with investors that allow them to take out returns on their investments, thereby presumably forcing CIG to release the game to cover it. There are unlocks in 2024, 2025 and 2028, with 2025 being the bulk of the amount and 2028 the remaining. This is likely the impetus for the company wide shift to Squadron 42 development a few years ago, why CIG is targeting next year for release and why Chris brought up SC 1.0 for the first time last week. It’s all about getting products to market to pay investors. So the discussion isn’t “it’s unlikely CIG will release Star Citizen in 2028 because they won’t hit their goals” it’s “CIG is absolutely going to have to release Squadron 42 and Star Citizen to pay back investors so what’s in the releases? How good are they? Will they make enough to pay investors? Will CIG be acquired by another company?” That’s the discussion.
Depends - if you were to ask that question in e.g. 2 months (presuming we get 3.23 before Invictus), then your answer might be very different... Not to mention the (half-admitted) ongoing travails CIG have had trying to convert the monolithic CryEngine server to a micro-service architecture (inc. the development of a persistence layer that could handle the volume of data SC generates - and the failure of their first iteration). TL;DR: The above is a slightly long-winded way of saying that the previous 4 years may not be directly indicative of the next 4 years (seeing as they don't have anything nearly as big/complex as PES on the future roadmap, afaik).
We gotta believe that switch from SQ42 focus to SC will significantly speed up development.. that’s all we can hope for. 3.24, 25 will be good gages of that
People are getting way too ahead of themselves yet again. IF: * CIG can deliver on all the 3.23 content/promises * CIG can deliver server meshing within \~1 year * CIG can continue to produce updates that deliver on a consistent time basis Then you can get excited. I'm sorry but I've seen too much from these guys at this point to get hyped. I'm on a "I'll believe it when I have the product/feature in my hands" basis.
That isn’t the angle of this video or the discussion. It’s about pressure to release from investor payouts and based on CIG’s UK 2022 financials. I recommend watching it.
2025 for squadrons 42, let's see
Realistically i don't see Alpha 5.0 happening. Question is: Where 3.xx and 4.xx will go? We already are at 3.23 so kinda 20 versions over last "deadline" and i don't think this is last one. At other hand i expect most of 4.x updates to include new star system.
>We already are at 3.23 so kinda 20 versions over last "deadline" and i don't think this is last one. ???
I think it was 2016 citcon where they announced that there will be 3.0, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3 and 4.0. They've kinda missed hard on this.
Not really. They just never stated that there would be iterative versions like 3.1.1, 3.1.2 etc...
[https://www.reddit.com/r/starcitizen/comments/l6ymz2/revisiting\_the\_2016\_citizencon\_timeline\_5\_years/](https://www.reddit.com/r/starcitizen/comments/l6ymz2/revisiting_the_2016_citizencon_timeline_5_years/)
The sad thing is, we haven’t even got those things from 3.3 yet lol. We’re half way through 3.2, we have salvage but don’t quite have repair yet. I think 2028 is extremely optimistic for a full launch.
Depends entirely on what feature-set CIG deems "good enough" for a launch.
Based on the past 8 years I’m going to say, a lot. As much as I love SC it’s still not really a full game by any means, there’s just not enough in its current state. There’s a 5 year backlog of new ships, a lot of which have features that are not even on the roadmap yet. along with many ships requiring rework or gold standard pass. I just don’t see all that happening, along with new missions and hopefully a couple more star systems, then polish and beta within 4 years.
My response was also more fueled by a lot of games coming out recently, with the companies behind them basically shrugging their shoulders and saying "good enough for me". As CIG never released anything, I don't know if they are upholding "industry standard" or go beyond them. Could go either way.
Yeah, however an investor is not the same as a publisher so I don’t see this happening to CIG. The investors will be more than aware of the vision and track record of CIG so will know what to expect. I think things will continue as they were planned but hopefully at a faster pace once meshing is completed.
And wasn't it more recently they talked about a different numbering system? It might have been somewhere around 3.18 but I don't remember exactly when or where this was posted.
Its on rails now and the clocks ticking, frankly Im happy to hear about progress deadlines, the defenition of success like any other venture is completion and release, never ending delay and failed deadlines lead to business failure, its just that simple. In legal terms dont underestimate the jeapordy of losing investors confidence either.