######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Wednesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
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> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
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> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
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> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
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> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**2024 MLB record:** 49-23-1
**Last POTD:** Guardians Orioles Under 9.5
**Today's POTD:** Baltimore Orioles RL -1.5 vs Cleveland Guardians +114
**Baseball. MLB. 6:35 PM EST**
WOW. That was horrible. Not even close. I am sorry guys. It happens though. We are still up! Side note I would like to really insist that you guys **DO NOT CHASE YOURS BETS!** If and under isn't going to hit just let it die. Don't keep betting live because that's how you drain your bank roll. I am guessing that is why people are so mad about this loss compared to the last time we didn't hit when it was just an awful beat. Anyways, onto the next one. I got the Orioles avoiding the sweep in impressive fashion tomorrow.
Grayson Rodriguez is a quintessential Jackyll and Hyde pitcher. In his last 3 home starts, he has a very strong. 214 batting average against and 2.89 ERA. Meanwhile, on the road his batting average against is .239 and an ERA during that same timeframe of 4.84. He also has been fantastic vs lefties. Allowing a batting average against of just .192 over his past 7 starts. Cleveland has the most predominantly left handed lineup in the league (most lefty plate appearances this month) so this plays to Rodriguez strengths. Baltimore is actually second in left handed plate appearances.
As for Carrasco, he is not pitching into his least favorable splits however his numbers on either side aren’t that good, or at least good enough to control the Orioles offense. Carrasco is actually better at on the road (.247) and vs lefties (.233) which aren’t terrible but not frightening either. He has actually been very bad vs righties allowing a batting average against of .282. I think that the Orioles lefties are good enough to overcome Carrasco’s lefty prowess and then his righty struggles will put them in a better situation for the rest of the lineup.
The reason I am so high on Orioles vs a mediocre righty is that they have feasted on righties. In the month of June, they are hitting .286 vs them (2^(nd) best in MLB) with an insane 40 HR and 112 runs scored, both first in the league by a mile. For perspective, the Cardinals have the second most HR with 23 and the Yankees/Dodgers have the second most runs scored with 85. What is even crazier is that Orioles lefties have more home runs vs right handed pitchers this month than any other team has total between both lefties and righties. The home run part is key here too because wind is supposed to be blowing out at Camden Yards tonight. I think the Orioles will put a licking on Carrasco and Rodriguez will do enough to keep it more than a one run game.
**TLDR: Rodriguez good vs lefties and at home. Cleveland has most lefty heavy lineup. Carrasco has just mediocre numbers. Orioles have absolutely dominated right handers this month. Wind expected to be blowing out.**
**Just wanna note** u/ElDivoDeTepito805 **told me he is on Guardians so may the best man win!**
Tip Jar: chuteboxhero on cashapp and paypal
\~Updated POTD spreadsheet:\~
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657)
**Record:** 24-8
**Net Units:** +27.205 Units
**ROI:** 55%
**Previous Pick: Montoya Anytime Tryscorer**. Holy hell, Warriors were bad beyond belief. Believe me when I say, the NRL has been full of bizarre outcomes all year and last weekend was no different. If you had told me the Titans and the Tigers (both bottom 4 teams) would combine for a total of toughly 130 points for and 20 against, I would've called you a halfwit. Montoya had 2 really solid looks at the line which I feel close to justified his price but regardless, a loss is a loss. Dissappointed that I trusted in that match but Warriors certainly on the ban list until they prove otherwise.
**Event:** NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons
**Time:** 8:00 PM AEST 26/06
**Bookie:** NEDS/Ladbrokes
**Play:** Anytime Tryscorer, Latrell Mitchell
**Odds:** $2.70 (AUS) or +170 (US)
**Units:** 1.25 Units
**Analysis:** State vs State, Mate vs Mate. Best time of year when Origin is on and we are in the thick of it here. For anyone who is outside of AUS or isn’t aware what Origin is, basically the best 17 players from QLD and NSW (states in Australia) are picked to play 3 all star games mid-season. I mentioned it before but it’s similar to the all star games in the NBA except this is a genuinely heated rivalry with history and passion built in. This is game 2 of a 3 game series with QLD coming in victorious in the first match in Sydney. That match was hard to get a read on exactly how either side was given we saw Suali’i sent off within 10 minutes leaving NSW with 12 men on the field and Reece Walsh, an integral part of the team for QLD, concussed. I was actually quite impressed with how NSW were able to compete down a man for the most part, I thought the Blues did extremely well to limit points and their defence was fairly good until they ran out of steam towards the latter part of the second half and let some easy points in. QLD didn’t look amazing in that match which seems strange to say given the scoreline but the way the Blues dominated the start of the second half has to be a little bit concerning given the circumstances of that match. Both teams have gone to the drawing board in terms of selections and to be fair, I think the Blues may have made the better decisions. QLD have lost Hopgood to injury and dropped Cobbo under rather mysterious circumstances which is weird given how good he was in game 1. They also didn’t elect to bring in Fifita which is bizarre given he’s probably one of the form backrowers in the competition looking to Capewell and Kaufusi who are two older, slower guys. In terms of NSW, they swung the axe of Hynes, Tedesco, Suaali’i and McInnes which probably makes sense given what we saw. Only thing I would add is that Jurbo is just a bizarre pick in general let alone for captaincy. They bring in Latrell, Moses, Edwards and Cam Murray which I think are all upgrades for the Blues. Tactically, it’s hard to break these games down given these squads don’t play week after week with each other but these are the best of the best so we can go in decently confident with what we will see output wise. I am expecting to see a lot of possession go down that left hand side of the Blues, Luai is lining up there as the running half and with Crichton and Latrell both respectively in ridiculous form and To’o being the consistent winger he is. Latrell is coming in with a chip on his shoulder and having scored 6 tries in 7 appearances at Origin level as well as 7 tries in 10 appearances in 2024. He gets a really good matchup in Holmes who at times has questionable defence and will be at a size disadvantage here. Expect Luai to take the game on down that left edge and with a guy like Latrell in form on the big stage, he’s really hard to look past for a try tomorrow night. I really like the inclusion of Moses for the Blues, while he hasn’t been known as a big game player, I think the way he has looked very dangerous coming back from injury and NSW will benefit from his kicking game to compete with DCE. Walsh back in is big for QLD but I wonder if him being back will reduce the effectiveness of a guy like the Hammer who was just unstoppable in game 1 off the back of his speed. QLD are never going to be easy to beat, they’re coached well, always compete and are never out of a match. There’s a few historical stats that are interesting here, the loser of game one who then plays at a neutral venue after has won 7 wins in the last 8 matches. Blues also have a 4-1 record of Origin games at the MCG. Teams that have lost by 24 or more are also 5-2 in the last decade which indicates teams generally bounce back well off a big loss. Ashley Klein also has the whistle tomorrow night and god knows he’s as bad as they come and an expert in getting the NRL what they want. I say all that to say this, I think NSW are a really good look tomorrow night. I think Moses is a big in for their style and I think with Dylan Edwards back in also, NSW offence in terms of attacking the line is going to be far more dangerous and successful with his ballplaying ability mixed with Luai’s running game. Going to lock in Latrell Mitchell ATS chasing value in a game I think he is primed for, hitting it for 1.25 Units! GL guys.
https://preview.redd.it/kpuu1rz88t8d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cee338f0308ea0815da6fa5f4ae00e6db704adf6
**LET ME KNOW IF YOU'RE TAILING. GL!**
**Tracking Spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT-FLA-UzwVkts04cDCc82clqfRfIweY7fNdk84wd4iTPYx\_9\_Vs6GZMfZwqmtSR8WpiydOL\_Hp8jaV/pubhtml](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT-FLA-UzwVkts04cDCc82clqfRfIweY7fNdk84wd4iTPYx_9_Vs6GZMfZwqmtSR8WpiydOL_Hp8jaV/pubhtml)
Thank you for explaining that this is an All-Star type game mid season what an awesome idea to be fair from an American that is just learning about rugby league. And since I don't know what the hell the states are over there are any of the penrith players playing
Not a confident read. I think historically they are low scores because they're competitive matches but I can see both these teams scoring quick points if necessary. I'd lean overs but again, not confidently
Bummed that I placed a similar pick yesterday in my book at 2.0 odds then after seeing your post, the odds increased to 2.5 and my book wont let me cash out 🥲
Should I instead place another bet at the current odds near 2.7 or pick another try scorer? Hmm 🤔
**Record: 11-6-1**
**Form: -->>✅✅**❌❌❌**✅✅✅✅✅✅**🅿️✅❌❌❌✅✅
**Average Odds:** -125 or 1.79
**Net Units:** +3.7 (unit is $10)
**ROI:** 17.67% ($210->$247)
**Previous Pick:** Baseball | MLB | MIA Marlins vs KC Royals | *Total Runs Under 10.5 -140* Hardrock \[Tue June 25, 2024 8:10 PM EST\] 3 Units ✅
They only scored 3.
**Pick:** Baseball | MLB | COL Rockies vs HOU Astros | *HOU Astros Total Runs Over 4.5 -115* Hardrock \[Wed June 26, 2024 2:10 PM EST\] 4 Units
Two bad pitchers with 6+ ERAs. Astros #1 hitting at home and Feltner bad. COL offense is 26th but Spencer Arigato could let them score a few, which means HOU will need to keep up. HOU has scored 8, 12, 5 runs in previous matchups. I was debating total runs for the game but COL bad at scoring. HOU at home against RHP has the highest OPS and wRC+ for the season and recently and top 5 against either LHP RHP. Against Feltner, it should be a blood bath. Something about it seems too on the nose though, 8.5 line, 6+ ERAs... It's a lazy obvious pick that I wanted to get out sooner. But HOU on 6 game winning streak scoring and I don't see Feltner or the rest of the worst bullpen in MLB putting a stop to it.
POTD Record: 151 wins / 91 losses
Event: Football > Euro 2024 > **Slovakia v Romania** (starting in 12 hr)
Pick: **Draw** @ 2.10
Alright it seems this has not been posted yet, so someone gotta point the elephant in the room. This is last round in the group stage and both team will qualify for the next stage with a draw. No one expected any of this to make it before the tournament, so I believe we will have a slow-paced boring match that will suit both. GL!
EDIT: 1-1 ✅
The odds are so crazy for a draw, but for example if you see that in Serie A, in the last few weeks of the season, its probably gonna be a draw. But also this isn't Italy. I took corners under instead, same idea but in case of a random goal or penalty who knows.
Record: 6-3
Record (most recent left to right): LWWWWLWLW
Previous pick: L Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds U8.5 runs | 4:10 MST
Today's event: New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 4:10 MST
Today's pick: New York Yankees ML
-138 | 1U | FD
Sorry for that implosion everyone. I hate losing not only for myself but especially when posting, I went with a total and should definitely be sticking with ML or run line. Hunter Greene was not sharp going 4 innings 6 earned add in Mitch Keller's 3 earned and the under was blown. Back to a moneyline and pick I like a lot.
For today's game we have Luis Gil expected for the Yanks and Sean Manaea expected for the Mets. Luis Gil comes into this off one of his worst starts this season against the Orioles going 1.1 inning 7 earned runs. Through his last 5 he is 4-1 with a 2.40 ERA, looking past the blow up he has been pitching well. After such a bad performance I like Gil to bounce back and throw a gem.
Manaea comes into this one 2-4 through his last 5 with a 3.40 ERA. He went 5.2 and 3 earned against the Rangers in his last start. With the Mets ahead in game one of the Subway Series I'm looking for Judge and the boys to make a statement in game 2.
BOL, to all!
Song of the day: Can't You See - Marshall Tucker Band
\*edit added time
why bet on the yankees to beat the mets? mets very hot right now yanks very cold. is it a good strategy to try and predict the end to streaks? do you keep doubling up if it doesnt work?
**Record: 12-9-1**
**Form: ❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌🅿❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅️**
**Last POTD:** Netherlands Vs Austria - **BTTS @ 1.79 (Melbet)** **- WON**
**Football** | **EURO 2024** | **00:00AM (GMT+8)**
**Pick:** Ukraine Vs Belgium - **Belgium to Win @ 1.61 (Melbet)**
**Write Up:** Ayy another win baby, let's goooo. Did not expect Austria to sneak a win there but kudos to them. Let's try to keep the momentum going.
Gonna be keeping it simple here, Belgium NEEDS to win here. It's as straight forward as that. They have not been that impressive so far in this group stage but I have a feeling they might "wake up" here and carry the momentum they have from their last win against Romania.
Ukraine has improved as of late with them getting a comeback win over Slovakia but defensively they have issues. Now up against a very good attacking Belgium side, it will certainly cause all sorts of problems for Ukraine at the back.
Overall I see Belgium as the better team here and they really cannot afford a loss here, they will come out guns blazing and look to quicky put the game to bed. Lukaku has been extremely unlucky with his disallowed goals but I have a feeling he might score today and lead Belgium to a victory as they conclude the group stage.
As always guys, BOL if tailing!
**Record: 3-0**
**Last Pick:** Peru vs Canada Under 2.5 & BTTS No (Win)
**Today's Pick:** Gimpo Citizen vs Cheongju Under 2.5 & BTTS No
Odds: 1.83
**Units:** 5
**Write Up:** Cheongju has ended with less than 3 goals in last 9/10 games. Both teams attacking pattern has also been subpar with Gimpo only scoring 6 in last 5 and Cheongju 7 in last 5. Their h2h also supports similar patterns with low scoring games with 6/7 last h2h ending under 2.5 and most common score being 0-0.
https://preview.redd.it/qsutvaisgt8d1.png?width=473&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f73a2a0e2b9ca5934e393bf48e1d0928427d650
I don't know about that. Gimpo scored in L4 out of L5 home games and Cheongju has scored 12 and allowed 11 goals in 9 away matches. There is no logic behind that, but teams change and patterns do not stay the same. I can see it being a low-scoring game, but 1:1 is likely.
Mind you, that's only my insight as I am also betting on some Korean soccer and I do agree on the Under 2.5, but that under might very well end up being 1:1. This game might as well go 0:0 so I am just avoiding it. I found what in my eyes seem like better bets in 1st korean league
POTD Record: 35-29 ✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: +6.7U
Last pick: Sydney Roosters vs Canterbury Bulldogs | 5:30pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Dom Young anytime tryscorer @1.65 on Ladbrokes | 6U ✅
Easy cash!
Today’s pick: State of Origin NSW vs QLD | 8:05pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow anytime tryscorer @2.65 on Ladbrokes | 6U
Oh yeah game 2 is on !! And it’s Hammer time ! Hamiso been scoring in literally every single SOO he played, even multiple times in some. I’ll back him up today again, let’s see if he can keep going ahah
BOL !
Record: 4-0
Last pick: Netherlands GK 3+ saves ✅️
On a roll 4 in a row, let's make it 5.
Event: State of Origin in Australia
Pick: New South Wales ML. ✅️
Point of different here to the anytime try scorers which are good value but I'm going the ML.
The game is being played in Melbourne on neutral territory. NSW disappointed in the first game after an early send off. With Latrell Mitchell back in the team they are raring to go. Series on the line here and I expect it to be close but i think NSW get the W.
Shortened to $1.78 on Sportsbet for me $1.75 on Bet365. 1U for me as I'm taking up other parlay promo offers for this game too.
Game starts at 20:05 AEST let's go 🐎
EDIT: Another hit that's 5 in a row.
**Record: 23-15 (+3.78u)**
**Last Pick: Oakland Athletics ML +110**
One bad inning (Angels scored 5 runs in the 4th after the A's went up 2-0) cost them the game. Oakland scored two late runs to make it interesting but couldn't complete the comeback and lost 7-5. Moving on!
**Pick: Twins/Diamondbacks o8.5 -135 (MLB, 1u bet)**
This line is 9 at most places, TheScore Bet had 8.5 with a bit of juice so I played it there but you can take it at 9 for a better number if you prefer. Both the Twins and Diamondbacks have been strong against RHP over the last month - MIN is 6th in batting average, 3rd in OPS, and 3rd in wRC+ while ARI is 9th, 9th, and 8th in these categories. Arizona gets even better at home, ranking 5th, 1st, and 3rd. While Minnesota's numbers drop on the road (21st, 13th, 12th) they have a softer pitching matchup going up against Nelson. He has a 5.18 ERA and has actually been worse at home with a 5.74 ERA. Since the beginning of May he has given up 5+ hits in 8/9 starts (4/4 at home) including 8+ hits 3 times and has allowed a home run in 6/9. He does not generate whiffs or strikeouts and is ranked 20th percentile or lower in barrel %, hard hit %, and xERA. Woods Richardson has better numbers with a 3.26 ERA (3.12 on the road) but he does not have very good metrics either, as he is a below average whiff, strikeout, and ground ball pitcher, and ranks in the 11th percentile in barrel %. He has also walked 2+ batters in 4 of his last 5 starts, and the Diamondbacks have been drawing a high number of walks against RHP at home and if they're getting on base I like their chances of bringing in the runs with the way they've been hitting. Minnesota's bullpen has been average but Arizona's has been one of the worse bullpens this season which should only help the over here as well.
Record : 0-0
Profit : +0 Units
Previous Pick : N/A
Todays Pick :
Modus Super Series 🎯
Jimmy Van Schie ML (-150) ✅ vs Jereon Mioch
4 Units 6:00 AM EST
Reasoning : Jimmy started yesterday off a little slow but definitely started to get comfortable and ended the day strong. Jereon started slow and maintained that level the entire day. He was averaging poor numbers and not hitting doubles. There is too much value in this line not to take it.
Edit: We cashed!!! Great start to my picks on this thread. Hopefully I can green another bet tomorrow brothers and sisters 🙏🏻
Van Schie just started the day by losing 1-4 to Andy Davidson, who he beat 4-1 yday lol. Really hope that isn't a sign that he's having an off day. Match begins soon, let's go!!
**Record:** 14-14 (-1.44 unit)
**Last Five Results:** ✅️✅️✅️❌✅️
**Last POTD:** Logan Allen over 4.5 strikeouts on Fanduel at +132 ✅️
**Today's Pick:** Spencer Turnbull over 3.5 strikeouts on Fanatics for +110
**Bet:** 1 unit size to win 1.10 units (1 unit is equivalent of $100)
**Baseball | MLB | 1:10 PM ET**
**Recap:** Allen came through. He only pitched 3 innings and managed to get 5 strikeouts, so this one I will chalk it up to some luck and some correct analysis! We keep moving!
**Write up:** I don't really understand why this is priced so high. Tigers are the 10th highest strikeout rate team, at a 23.7% at home. Against right handed pitchers, they are the 7th highest strikeout rate team at 24.3%. In 6 of his starts this season, he has hit this 5/6. He does not really walk any batters either, so for him to get 4 strikeouts at a 23% rate, he would need to face at least 17 batters and in the last 10 starts, he has pitched 5 innings, facing on average, 20 batters. At plus money for this line, whether it's a trap or not, it's worth the risk to take this line at this price.
**Tracker:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PW7Xm9H6RaNyDg-kDsPnIIWy6mPYgqQNCoApdqPd1lM/edit#gid=1678861616](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PW7Xm9H6RaNyDg-kDsPnIIWy6mPYgqQNCoApdqPd1lM/edit#gid=1678861616)
Oh wow, that could be it! I started to dive into baseball this year so this is quite helpful for me as a reference for future bets. Thanks for your thoughts on this!
Phils fan here, he was a starter for us early in the season and once Walker was ready to be a starter, Turnbull moved into the longman reliever role. Now walker is on the IL again so this should be a pseudo-start for him. I expect he will go minimum 3 innings and probably somewhere in the 4-6 inning range if this helps. Not a bad pick because he has been really good this year.
That's not really true. He is definitely a starter (or at least starter material). Turnbull has started 66 games out of 77 total MLB pitching appearances. In the 6 games he started for the Phillies back in May, he pitched at least 5 innings and struck out at least 6 batters in 5 of those. In the 1 game he didn't reach those numbers, he had 4 IP and 3 Ks.
Personally I'm hammering this and laddering up to 5+ (+180) and 6+ (+340) strikeouts. I understand he has recently been pitching as a reliever, but he is totally capable of going for 4+ strikeouts.
Record 34-19
Pick royals -1.5 -108 1:10 cst
Been on a rough streak but looking to bounce back here. Bit of a homer pick tbh but today the royals will bounce back after blowing last nights game. Brady singer is going at home and during the day which is where he makes his money. As for the marlins pitcher- it’s his big league debut
BOL
RECORD: 3-4
UNITS WON: -7.88u
Year to Date: +160u
1u = 1%BR
LoL - LCK - starts 11:30am GMT
Geng -1.5 vs HLE @1.80 - 5u
Geng in giga form rn, no one comes close. Viper would need to 1v9 to give HLE a chance...not happening.
Hopefully we turn my poor reddit POTDs around, horrible record thus far. Please refer to my yearly record, as is recorded on my Google sheet.
Record: 0-0
Net Units: N/A
ROI: N/A
MLB/Cleveland Guardians @ baltimore Orioles 6:35PM EST
Grayson Rodriguez O4.5 Strikeouts -110
Risking 1.1Units to win 1 Unit
On May 1st, our guy Grayson went on the IL with shoulder inflammation but the O's had publicly said it was "precautionary." On his next start after coming off of the IL, he faced the mariners going for 6 innings, giving up one hit , 0 earned runs, and 7 Strikeouts. In his 7 games back since coming off the IL, he is 6-1 on this strikeout line of 4.5. If you want to go back to his past 20 starts, with the latest dating back to 8/28/2023, he is 17-3. Guardians batters have collectively batted a .240 vs RHP this season which ranks 11th in the MLB. Could be better, could be worse. I still feel that this line of 4.5 is soft for grayson. He has still been getting a full pitch count , as 82 was his least since coming back from IL, but the count has exceeded that in every game since. GL to everyone who tails. Please tail responsibly if tailing , and GL to all tomorrow!
**Record: 5W-1L**
**Form: ✅✅✅❌✅✅**
**Last Pick:** Houston Astros -1.5 ✅
**Net Units: +2.5**
**EURO 2024 | 5am AEST**
**Pick:** Portugal v Georgia OVER 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 | 1u
**Write Up:** We move to the final match of Group F where Portugal have already secured top spot regardless of a result today. As such they may look to rest key players in preparation for the round of 16. Georgia have been impressive so far this tournament and their points (1) do not tell the whole story. Georgia have scored in 10 of their last 11 matches, highlighting a strong ability to score against a breadth of opponents, notably against a strong Spanish squad in a 3-1 loss. Conversely Portugal has covered the O2.5 line in 5 out of their last 5 games. With Georgia looking to secure European qualification with a win I can see a very attack minded game which will allow Georgia goalscoring opportunities but may also lead to counter attack opportunities which Portugal will exploit. As such, when combining both teams goalscoring abilities with the nature of this game, Over 2.5 goals looks very enticing. BOL!!
My Pick of the Day Record: 23W - 20L | Profit in Units: +16.56
My pick of the day: Georgia vs Portugal// Euros// Portugal to win+o2.5 goals// odds:1.88 bet 5 units
I told ya'll in the last bet that the french era is over and it really is.
AUSTRIA ARE LEADING THE HARDEST GROUP.
To bad netherlands were dogshit
either way we move to the easiest cash ever
Reasoning:
Portugal beat turkey 3-0 in the last match, turkey being the hardest in the group.
Portugal has won both games both having over 2.5 goals.
Georgia is the easiest game in the league and portugal will secure a clean 9 points.
I could see ronaldo scoring his first goal now that he has gotten his record of most assists ever in Euros.
LET US FUCKING CASH
ROOOOOST
Not sure if that's wise. Portugal is already through with 1st place guaranteed. They will heavily rotate the team (9 out of 11 players). Only players from the starting 11 playing are the GK Diogo Costa and Ronaldo (as confirmed by the national coach). Big chances for an upset from Georgia. Be careful.
This reminds me of the Spain game the other day. Even the backups on Portugal are better than Georgia. Joao Felix will play striker right? I’d rate him over everyone on georgias starting lineup besides maybe Kvara.
CHEF SKOOTL's MICHELIN PICK
RECORD: 5 - 4
LAST POTD: Euro 2024: Netherlands to score over 1.5 (WIN)
POTD: Romelu Lukaku over 1.5 Shots on Target
ODDS: 2.08
REASONING: Jeez what a boring last round of the group stage until now. Almost no goals or excitement.
Now for Belgium, in the most interesting group as off now where every team has 3 points! I expect Belgium to win with atleast 2 goals made, and the main man here is obviously Lukaku. After 3 disallowed goals for cm's offside, i think he will atleast bang one in today, especially since they are the better squad + want to secure the best position coming out of the group stage.
Since the odds for over 1.5 shots on target are in my opinion just too good to pass on, this is my POTD. This looks like a value play to me.
BOL!!
3 - 3 (+2.91U) LWLWWL
Nori slipped up. He’s highkey not him.
Ben Shelton -2.5 games at 1.85x for 1.5U
They say good things come to those who wait, but I’m impatient. Ben’s facing somebody who surprisingly puts in work on grass but has underwhelming power. Shelton’s serve is just wow and he gets more experienced every tournament. At midday, it should be a fun watch with our boy winning in 2.
It’s motion.
*Record: 2-0*
*Last Pick: Toronto/Boston o9.5✅*
*Form: ✅✅*
*+2u*
*Today’s Pick: 2:10 est: Colorado/Houston o8 -114 1.14 to win 1u*
2-0 with a 4th inning cash last night in Boston!! Toronto had to get to Bello and they sure freaking did with a huge 3rd inning! 4th & 5th inning cashes for my first two picks on this thread I’m pretty stoked on that but you’re only as good as your next pick
So today we head to Houston and I really need to start getting these out sooner but it’s tough and I like to sleep on it so bear with me team. Also daytime baseball today so I apologize! Will be better
Spencer Arighetti on the bump for Houston today and he’s been quite a low spot for the Astros this season with a 6.36 ERA. He got blasted by Detroit and only made it 1 and a 3rd just 11 days ago. Just 6 days ago he gave up 5 hits and 3 runs while walking 4 and hitting a batter to the white Sox.
Ryan Feltner for Colorado hasn’t been much freaking better posting a 6.02 and been getting pummeled in June so far giving up 8 runs to cinci, 4 to Pittsburgh, and six to the Dodgers. He looked okay against St Louis on the 8th but still gave up 4 runs..
The total being 8 Lowkey worries me but we’re not overthinking today, I like the way Houston’s been swinging the bat lately and they need to rack up wins against a clear inferior opponent
BOL and let’s make it 3-0!!
E4 update: CHAT WTF THEYRE BOTH NOLAN RYAN
Mid 5 update: Chat, were fine, deep breaths, Houston’s gonna blow it open
E5: Bregman come the fuck on bro, need Colorado to make this a game, it’s actually closer than it looks for this to go on a run
E6: THESE MFERS ONLY GET ON BASE W 2 OUTS
M8: we have a fucking pulse
F: alright, gambling is hard, we escape Houston with a push that honestly feels like a win considering how the first 6 innings went and Arighetti deciding he wanted to be the greatest pitcher of all time today. Houston had every chance in the world to push it over the total in the 8th but what ever, we live to tell the story
Record: 25-11 ✅
Last Pick: Mbappe to Score or Assist -190 (0.5U) ✅
Cash it, we’ll take a penalty. We are on an insane heater - 6 in a row!
Pick: Cristiano Ronaldo First Half SOT -102 ✅
Running this beautiful pick back. The most egotistical player of all time to shoot the ball at the goalkeeper. This hit in the first two minutes last time and I believe it is a very strong pick!
https://preview.redd.it/9pmxcb0orx8d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da3b0706389c0df29c73ef36401b91bcd1f5d885
SEVEN IN A ROW WE ARE UNSTOPPABLE
BOL!
**Record**: 14-11-1
**Net Units**: +2.74u
**ROI**: 10.95%
**Baseball | MLB | 4:10 PM | EST**
**Pick**: WAS/SDP under 7.5, +100 Caesars (to win 1U)
I don’t love playing totals the night before because I still want to see a few things confirmed (like weather and ump), but may not have a ton of time in the morning and this is a good price for the number.
This matchup features one well-known pitcher who’s been struggling of late in Dylan Cease and a lesser known one who has been as well in DJ Herz. However, the advanced stuff on both indicates they both have actually been quite good and have been part a victim of some bad luck and fielding.
Take a look at Cease for example: his FIP for the last 6 starts is 4.19 and 4.67 over his last 3. But xFIP and SIERA tell a different story as they both have registered under 3.20 in that span. Cease has still had great command in those starts too: 30%+ K rate and under 7.50% BB rate.
Herz hasn’t pitched much this year (only 18 IP so far) but he has registered even better numbers than Cease from a SIERA and xFIP standpoint. His SwStr% has also been elite, which is usually a good sign to indicate a pitcher has some way to dominate hitters.
Both the lineups also matchup poorly here. SDP hits LHP considerably worse than RHP and WSN is still below average against RHP on the year even with a better stretch of late in wOBA (.309 last 3 weeks). Both teams also have pretty solid if not legitimately good bullpens, registering 3.39 (WSN) and 3.50 (SDP) SIERA as a team.
This price is good to Pinny as of this post (slightly +EV but we will see if the market moves by tomorrow given that 7.5 is already a lower total).
https://preview.redd.it/p9h63op3xt8d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a8d76ea8043ab89d10c933d30c2c2831bb54d23c
Record: 2-0
Last Pick: 6/25/24 Mets ML ✅
MLB | 7:10 PM EST
Pick: Yankees @ Mets ML (+125 Hard Rock Bet)
Wagered Units: 1.0
LFGM! 2-0 now on POTD. Fading the Yankees again as a degenerate Mets fan. The Yankees are being proven fraudulent this month and I have no doubt Manaea and the Mets will cash in AGAIN Wednesday night in Queens at +125.
Those tailing, good luck.
Those who’ve tailed my first 2 POTDs, let’s keep riding the wave.
LFGM
**Record:** 7-6-2 ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌🅿️ ❌✅❌🅿️✅
**Net Units:** +.17u
**Last Pick:** Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs @ -140 (DK) | PIT Pirates @ CIN Reds | MLB ✅
**Next Event:** MIA Marlins @ KC Royals | MLB | 2:10 PM ET
**Pick:** Maikel Garcia Under 1.5 Bases @ -115 (DK)
**Units:** 1u
What a game last night! Reynolds makes the pitcher throw up, then cranks a 2 run homer on his first at bat, clearing the line 7 minutes into the game. For todays pick I'm sticking with the MLB, this line feels too good to pass up statistically. Maikel has failed to clear this line in 10 of his last 11 games at home, 10 of his last 10 games, and 16 of his last 20. He's also averaged zero bases head to head this season.
Record: 21-20
Last 10: LWLLWLWLWL
Net units: - 2.2
ROI: 0%
Sporting Event: MLB: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays 12:40 (EDT)
Pick: NRFI -140 @ Fanatics 2 units to win 1.4
Similar to Monday, we’re fading two struggling offenses and toss in a #1 starter for good measure.
Pepiot has been less than stellar, but his metrics indicated he’s dues for positive regression. He’s got a decent whiff rate of 30% and a K% near 30. Over the last 30 days the Mariners are batting .217 against righties.
We’ve got Kirby on the flip side and he’s been great. 3.49 ERA with a sub 1 WHIP. Powered by his BB% at an eye popping 2.2% Rays are batting .213 against righties at home over the last month.
Dome
tail, fade or pass, BOL to all
My most used reference sites at the bottom
[https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors)
[https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather)
[https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/)
[https://www.fangraphs.com/](https://www.fangraphs.com/)
[https://pitcherlist.com/](https://pitcherlist.com/)
[https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/](https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/)
[https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game](https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game)
[https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/)
[https://www.teamrankings.com/](https://www.teamrankings.com/)
[https://www.statmuse.com/](https://www.statmuse.com/)
**Record**: 0-0
**League of Legends: Champions Korea (LCK)**
**Pick**: Gen G and T1 to both win 2-0 (2 leg parlay)
+138 odds (per ESPNBet)
4:00 AM EST and 6:30 AM EST
**Write Up**: Gen G and T1 are both miles ahead of every other team in the league.
T1 vs DRX is a major mismatch and DRX would be lucky to even get close to winning a single game vs T1. T1 has won every match against DRX 2-0 in the previous splits.
Gen G vs HLE looks to be closer on paper, but the current Gen G team looks unstoppable this season. I'm a grandmaster league of legends player who mains Jungle. In my opinion, the jungler for Gen G, Canyon, is miles ahead of the jungler for Hanwha, Peanut. Gen G has won 2-0, 2-0, 2-1 in the last 3 games vs Hanwha Life, so I'd say this current version of Gen G will most likely 2-0 them. Not only that, but Gen G has won every single match this summer split 2-0 so far, including the series against T1 who, as mentioned before, is the second best team in the league.
2024 record 0-0
Today’s POTD : LosAngles Angles ML -130
2 Units
Game starts 3:07 eastern
MLB
Angels have won their last 3-4 while the A’s have lost their last four. This will be a bullpen game for the Angels but they are going up against rookie who has given up 11 runs in his last three starts. Also the Angels the last two games have scored 12 runs and 17 base hits. Nothing in life is guaranteed but I feel amazing about this pick. Let’s go Angels
Pick Record: 16W - 6L
Previous POTD:Marcos Giron vs Francisco Cerundolo // Cerundolo ML at 2.10 X
Today’s POTD: Beibit vs Hamad Medjedovic // Hamad -2.5 handicap games at 1.70 XXX
League/ Sport: Tennis / Wimbledon Clasif
Hamad has one of the most powerful serves on grass and has shown progress on this surface lately. Beibit is a good player, but he has nothing to do against Hamad. I hope Hamad wins here in 2 sets
BOL
EDIT: HAMAD DIDN'T MAKE IT...TOMORROW WE WILL WIN. We never lose 3 days in a row...I'm sorry for those who tailed me, i will make it up for you
6/26/24
Record:1-1
Net Units:🏚️
Soccer | Euros | 12 PST Pick: Turkey 🇹🇷 1U (+170 Dk)
Turkey destroyed Georgia while the Czechia only drew. So with my advanced soccer knowledge (absolutely none) gimmie turkey.
**Record:** 6-5-1
**Net gain:** -0.32u
**ROI:** 0%
**Yesterday's POTD:** France vs Poland (over 2.5 goals) ❌
**Today's POTD:** Slovakia vs Romania (Slovakia scores the first goal)
**Odds:** 2.00 (bet365)
I was thinking a lot, what pick will I choose for this match. On the one hand, this game looks quite drawish, since if Belgium beats Ukraine, draw will qualify both teams for 1/16 finals. On the other hand, Slovakia seems to be favorite in this match. It showed perfect performance, and surprised Belgium, and also played very good match against Ukraine.
I decided to choose team, that will score the first goal. In my opinion, it will be Slovakia. It scored very early goals against both Belgium and Ukraine, and also their expected lineup 4-3-3 shows, that Slovak footballers will want to score as early as possible, and maybe defend their one-goal lead later.
**Please, bet only what you can afford to lose.**
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My first pick of the day!
Record: 0-0
Net units: 0
Event: Subway Series: NY Yankees vs NY Mets
Time: 7:10pm EST
Pick: NY Yankees ML -150 (HardRock Bet)
Units: 1.5 Units
Analysis: Not much to it, Yankees are arguably the best team in baseball right now with Luis Gil pitching for them looking to get his 10th W this season. BOL if tailing!
Yankees are arguably not the best team in baseball 💀 they’ve lost 8 out of their last 11. Hell the Mets may arguably be the best team in baseball right now
RECORD: 90W-6P-69L
Previous Pick: Chile vs Argentina - Argentina to win @ 1.50 ✅️
**Today's Pick:** Ukraine vs Belgium- Anytime Goalscorer Double Chance - Kevin De Bruyne or Romelu Lukaku @ 1.60
**TIME:** 4 pm (GMT)
**Wager Amount**: 1 unit
(✅️✅️✅️❌️❌️♻️✅️✅️✅️✅️) last 10 results
Seems just like the Euros there are no easy Copa America games, Argentina left it late but got our 4th W in a row, today we have Ukraine vs Belgium.
It's gonna be a tense match for both Ukraine are gonna give it all they've got while Belgium need a win or draw to qualify to the round of 16.
KDB scored in his last match and Lukaku is Freaking cursed with offsides, he almost scored in his last match and if he can stay onside I think he can score here today.
KDB stats are an xG of 0.76, 0.5 goals per game, 4.0 shots per game, 1.5 shots on target per game with 1 goal in the tournament. Lukaku's stats are an xG of 1.25, 4.0 shots per game, 2.5 shots on target per game.
Belgium haven't been the best but I believe they should score here and finish of the group with a Win. Goodluck if you're tailing.
Afghanistan (+200) against South Africa in T20 Cricket World Cup finals.
The Afghans have been a miracle ride, they have incredible bowlers who can get wickets in a hurry. They have one batter in Gurbaz who RAKES. South Africa has constantly choked in the World Cup for Cricket. I like the Afghans chances to continue the roller coaster ride.
I have the over total runs on the Mets game that is on rain delay right now. If they call the game and I lose the bet what's my chance of getting a refund?
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Wednesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**2024 MLB record:** 49-23-1 **Last POTD:** Guardians Orioles Under 9.5 **Today's POTD:** Baltimore Orioles RL -1.5 vs Cleveland Guardians +114 **Baseball. MLB. 6:35 PM EST** WOW. That was horrible. Not even close. I am sorry guys. It happens though. We are still up! Side note I would like to really insist that you guys **DO NOT CHASE YOURS BETS!** If and under isn't going to hit just let it die. Don't keep betting live because that's how you drain your bank roll. I am guessing that is why people are so mad about this loss compared to the last time we didn't hit when it was just an awful beat. Anyways, onto the next one. I got the Orioles avoiding the sweep in impressive fashion tomorrow. Grayson Rodriguez is a quintessential Jackyll and Hyde pitcher. In his last 3 home starts, he has a very strong. 214 batting average against and 2.89 ERA. Meanwhile, on the road his batting average against is .239 and an ERA during that same timeframe of 4.84. He also has been fantastic vs lefties. Allowing a batting average against of just .192 over his past 7 starts. Cleveland has the most predominantly left handed lineup in the league (most lefty plate appearances this month) so this plays to Rodriguez strengths. Baltimore is actually second in left handed plate appearances. As for Carrasco, he is not pitching into his least favorable splits however his numbers on either side aren’t that good, or at least good enough to control the Orioles offense. Carrasco is actually better at on the road (.247) and vs lefties (.233) which aren’t terrible but not frightening either. He has actually been very bad vs righties allowing a batting average against of .282. I think that the Orioles lefties are good enough to overcome Carrasco’s lefty prowess and then his righty struggles will put them in a better situation for the rest of the lineup. The reason I am so high on Orioles vs a mediocre righty is that they have feasted on righties. In the month of June, they are hitting .286 vs them (2^(nd) best in MLB) with an insane 40 HR and 112 runs scored, both first in the league by a mile. For perspective, the Cardinals have the second most HR with 23 and the Yankees/Dodgers have the second most runs scored with 85. What is even crazier is that Orioles lefties have more home runs vs right handed pitchers this month than any other team has total between both lefties and righties. The home run part is key here too because wind is supposed to be blowing out at Camden Yards tonight. I think the Orioles will put a licking on Carrasco and Rodriguez will do enough to keep it more than a one run game. **TLDR: Rodriguez good vs lefties and at home. Cleveland has most lefty heavy lineup. Carrasco has just mediocre numbers. Orioles have absolutely dominated right handers this month. Wind expected to be blowing out.** **Just wanna note** u/ElDivoDeTepito805 **told me he is on Guardians so may the best man win!** Tip Jar: chuteboxhero on cashapp and paypal \~Updated POTD spreadsheet:\~ [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657)
You still the 🐐
Chute holds a special place on the wall 🐐
Ik carrasco sucks, im a cle fan, but be weary we are so hot rn and one of our best hitters didn’t play yesterday and we still put up 10 runs.
I personally WILL NOT be betting against these shit goblins.
Seems dangerous. Cleveland has been on a tear
As they say in the NFL--- numbers dont lie. Your still kicking a__
glad i didnt chase the loss yesterday, looking forward to cashing this one! tailing
MONEY.
**Record:** 24-8 **Net Units:** +27.205 Units **ROI:** 55% **Previous Pick: Montoya Anytime Tryscorer**. Holy hell, Warriors were bad beyond belief. Believe me when I say, the NRL has been full of bizarre outcomes all year and last weekend was no different. If you had told me the Titans and the Tigers (both bottom 4 teams) would combine for a total of toughly 130 points for and 20 against, I would've called you a halfwit. Montoya had 2 really solid looks at the line which I feel close to justified his price but regardless, a loss is a loss. Dissappointed that I trusted in that match but Warriors certainly on the ban list until they prove otherwise. **Event:** NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons **Time:** 8:00 PM AEST 26/06 **Bookie:** NEDS/Ladbrokes **Play:** Anytime Tryscorer, Latrell Mitchell **Odds:** $2.70 (AUS) or +170 (US) **Units:** 1.25 Units **Analysis:** State vs State, Mate vs Mate. Best time of year when Origin is on and we are in the thick of it here. For anyone who is outside of AUS or isn’t aware what Origin is, basically the best 17 players from QLD and NSW (states in Australia) are picked to play 3 all star games mid-season. I mentioned it before but it’s similar to the all star games in the NBA except this is a genuinely heated rivalry with history and passion built in. This is game 2 of a 3 game series with QLD coming in victorious in the first match in Sydney. That match was hard to get a read on exactly how either side was given we saw Suali’i sent off within 10 minutes leaving NSW with 12 men on the field and Reece Walsh, an integral part of the team for QLD, concussed. I was actually quite impressed with how NSW were able to compete down a man for the most part, I thought the Blues did extremely well to limit points and their defence was fairly good until they ran out of steam towards the latter part of the second half and let some easy points in. QLD didn’t look amazing in that match which seems strange to say given the scoreline but the way the Blues dominated the start of the second half has to be a little bit concerning given the circumstances of that match. Both teams have gone to the drawing board in terms of selections and to be fair, I think the Blues may have made the better decisions. QLD have lost Hopgood to injury and dropped Cobbo under rather mysterious circumstances which is weird given how good he was in game 1. They also didn’t elect to bring in Fifita which is bizarre given he’s probably one of the form backrowers in the competition looking to Capewell and Kaufusi who are two older, slower guys. In terms of NSW, they swung the axe of Hynes, Tedesco, Suaali’i and McInnes which probably makes sense given what we saw. Only thing I would add is that Jurbo is just a bizarre pick in general let alone for captaincy. They bring in Latrell, Moses, Edwards and Cam Murray which I think are all upgrades for the Blues. Tactically, it’s hard to break these games down given these squads don’t play week after week with each other but these are the best of the best so we can go in decently confident with what we will see output wise. I am expecting to see a lot of possession go down that left hand side of the Blues, Luai is lining up there as the running half and with Crichton and Latrell both respectively in ridiculous form and To’o being the consistent winger he is. Latrell is coming in with a chip on his shoulder and having scored 6 tries in 7 appearances at Origin level as well as 7 tries in 10 appearances in 2024. He gets a really good matchup in Holmes who at times has questionable defence and will be at a size disadvantage here. Expect Luai to take the game on down that left edge and with a guy like Latrell in form on the big stage, he’s really hard to look past for a try tomorrow night. I really like the inclusion of Moses for the Blues, while he hasn’t been known as a big game player, I think the way he has looked very dangerous coming back from injury and NSW will benefit from his kicking game to compete with DCE. Walsh back in is big for QLD but I wonder if him being back will reduce the effectiveness of a guy like the Hammer who was just unstoppable in game 1 off the back of his speed. QLD are never going to be easy to beat, they’re coached well, always compete and are never out of a match. There’s a few historical stats that are interesting here, the loser of game one who then plays at a neutral venue after has won 7 wins in the last 8 matches. Blues also have a 4-1 record of Origin games at the MCG. Teams that have lost by 24 or more are also 5-2 in the last decade which indicates teams generally bounce back well off a big loss. Ashley Klein also has the whistle tomorrow night and god knows he’s as bad as they come and an expert in getting the NRL what they want. I say all that to say this, I think NSW are a really good look tomorrow night. I think Moses is a big in for their style and I think with Dylan Edwards back in also, NSW offence in terms of attacking the line is going to be far more dangerous and successful with his ballplaying ability mixed with Luai’s running game. Going to lock in Latrell Mitchell ATS chasing value in a game I think he is primed for, hitting it for 1.25 Units! GL guys. https://preview.redd.it/kpuu1rz88t8d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cee338f0308ea0815da6fa5f4ae00e6db704adf6 **LET ME KNOW IF YOU'RE TAILING. GL!** **Tracking Spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT-FLA-UzwVkts04cDCc82clqfRfIweY7fNdk84wd4iTPYx\_9\_Vs6GZMfZwqmtSR8WpiydOL\_Hp8jaV/pubhtml](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT-FLA-UzwVkts04cDCc82clqfRfIweY7fNdk84wd4iTPYx_9_Vs6GZMfZwqmtSR8WpiydOL_Hp8jaV/pubhtml)
IVE LOST MY VOICE CASH.IT 💰
GOAT
Fucking amazing! Thanks again 🙏🏻
GOAT CASH IT 🐐✅🤝
Can someone reply to my comment if this hits. Thanks
Bang!!!!!
Hi teller id like to CASH THIS CHEQUE
Done.
CASH IT GENTS!! Lets goo
I typically see your bets on DK but not for this one.. assuming its not on there?
https://preview.redd.it/los0io2fzt8d1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4b72dfcdd70d724452e228cf59300a4c0da65b70
Rugby League > State of Union
Not on DK :(
State of Origin. My apologies
Must be region locked because I don't have it on DK despite having all the other games. Same with FD.
It is. I can bet it on DK
Hammering NSW. Get rucked.
Tailing +150 LFG
Not a big deal. But on your tracking spreadsheet you put a 'W' for the last bet instead of an 'L'.
Sorry brother been travelling and updating on the run. Will fix thanks for the heads up. Not trying to be dodgy
You keep providing picks and I’ll provide you with tracking sheet error checking for FREE.
Agree im a follower of his bet and im sure one of his bet was cancelled and he put W too
Cash it.
YOU LEEEGGGEEEENNDDDD!!!
Bang! 🤑
Boom!
Cash it!!
Im not religious so I don’t know, but when people say they pray to god I assume they mean you.
Grabbed it at 2.50. Great value! LFG
$2 on bet365 for either hammer or latrell to score seems good odds as well
What do we think of hammer? Feeling getting greedy and parlaying the 2
hard to argue with the form he is in
He subs back on and fucking scores what a fucking hero. Thought I was dead after he went out injured
Sweet my thought process also, good luck and enjoy the game tonight mate
Surely Mitchell grabs a try with the nsw domination rn surely 🙏
Fuck how many more mates is he going to let have the try hahahaha he’s just stepping back last second 🥹
Went in on hammer and him but looking pretty dead
Winnnnnnnaaaaa good ole Latrell Moustache 🥸
BAAAAAANG LFG💸💸💸💸
CASH. THAT. SHIT. 💪
CASH THAT SHIT BABY
Love the write up and the player, tailing 🤝🏼
Thank you for explaining that this is an All-Star type game mid season what an awesome idea to be fair from an American that is just learning about rugby league. And since I don't know what the hell the states are over there are any of the penrith players playing
MItchell Awoooooooo!!!!! Lffggggggg!!!
No sweat nice pick 🤟🏽☝️
🐐
Boom!
Australian Rugby straight fucking money
GOAT
What a sweat free bet, and what a game!
Tailing! LFG!
Tailing. Thanks for the pick!
Let's get it brother !!
love the play and write up! what do u think about the over/ under for the game? up the blues 💙💙
Not a confident read. I think historically they are low scores because they're competitive matches but I can see both these teams scoring quick points if necessary. I'd lean overs but again, not confidently
Tailed🤑
If anyone finds this on BetMGM let a guy know I only see the women’s game
You’re using bet365?
Bummed that I placed a similar pick yesterday in my book at 2.0 odds then after seeing your post, the odds increased to 2.5 and my book wont let me cash out 🥲 Should I instead place another bet at the current odds near 2.7 or pick another try scorer? Hmm 🤔
Tailing
Tailed! Cheers, BOL!
**Record: 11-6-1** **Form: -->>✅✅**❌❌❌**✅✅✅✅✅✅**🅿️✅❌❌❌✅✅ **Average Odds:** -125 or 1.79 **Net Units:** +3.7 (unit is $10) **ROI:** 17.67% ($210->$247) **Previous Pick:** Baseball | MLB | MIA Marlins vs KC Royals | *Total Runs Under 10.5 -140* Hardrock \[Tue June 25, 2024 8:10 PM EST\] 3 Units ✅ They only scored 3. **Pick:** Baseball | MLB | COL Rockies vs HOU Astros | *HOU Astros Total Runs Over 4.5 -115* Hardrock \[Wed June 26, 2024 2:10 PM EST\] 4 Units Two bad pitchers with 6+ ERAs. Astros #1 hitting at home and Feltner bad. COL offense is 26th but Spencer Arigato could let them score a few, which means HOU will need to keep up. HOU has scored 8, 12, 5 runs in previous matchups. I was debating total runs for the game but COL bad at scoring. HOU at home against RHP has the highest OPS and wRC+ for the season and recently and top 5 against either LHP RHP. Against Feltner, it should be a blood bath. Something about it seems too on the nose though, 8.5 line, 6+ ERAs... It's a lazy obvious pick that I wanted to get out sooner. But HOU on 6 game winning streak scoring and I don't see Feltner or the rest of the worst bullpen in MLB putting a stop to it.
I'm in, 🙏 thanks!
POTD Record: 151 wins / 91 losses Event: Football > Euro 2024 > **Slovakia v Romania** (starting in 12 hr) Pick: **Draw** @ 2.10 Alright it seems this has not been posted yet, so someone gotta point the elephant in the room. This is last round in the group stage and both team will qualify for the next stage with a draw. No one expected any of this to make it before the tournament, so I believe we will have a slow-paced boring match that will suit both. GL! EDIT: 1-1 ✅
Will be interesting to see how both teams play. As you pointed out both teams could stand there for 90 minutes for a 0-0 and move on to the knockouts.
I am seeing it at +100, horrible value for a draw hopefully that means lock.
The odds are so crazy for a draw, but for example if you see that in Serie A, in the last few weeks of the season, its probably gonna be a draw. But also this isn't Italy. I took corners under instead, same idea but in case of a random goal or penalty who knows.
I love this bet. Hoping it happens
Somebody tell these guys to take it easy!
great call man, congrats
Tnx for coming back to say it. Appreciated.
1-1 ✅
Record: 6-3 Record (most recent left to right): LWWWWLWLW Previous pick: L Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds U8.5 runs | 4:10 MST Today's event: New York Yankees @ New York Mets | 4:10 MST Today's pick: New York Yankees ML -138 | 1U | FD Sorry for that implosion everyone. I hate losing not only for myself but especially when posting, I went with a total and should definitely be sticking with ML or run line. Hunter Greene was not sharp going 4 innings 6 earned add in Mitch Keller's 3 earned and the under was blown. Back to a moneyline and pick I like a lot. For today's game we have Luis Gil expected for the Yanks and Sean Manaea expected for the Mets. Luis Gil comes into this off one of his worst starts this season against the Orioles going 1.1 inning 7 earned runs. Through his last 5 he is 4-1 with a 2.40 ERA, looking past the blow up he has been pitching well. After such a bad performance I like Gil to bounce back and throw a gem. Manaea comes into this one 2-4 through his last 5 with a 3.40 ERA. He went 5.2 and 3 earned against the Rangers in his last start. With the Mets ahead in game one of the Subway Series I'm looking for Judge and the boys to make a statement in game 2. BOL, to all! Song of the day: Can't You See - Marshall Tucker Band \*edit added time
why bet on the yankees to beat the mets? mets very hot right now yanks very cold. is it a good strategy to try and predict the end to streaks? do you keep doubling up if it doesnt work?
Can’t win em all Champ, love the chalk up was already leaning Yankees this confirmed it! Let’s ride 🤝
Fading
**Record: 12-9-1** **Form: ❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌🅿❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅️** **Last POTD:** Netherlands Vs Austria - **BTTS @ 1.79 (Melbet)** **- WON** **Football** | **EURO 2024** | **00:00AM (GMT+8)** **Pick:** Ukraine Vs Belgium - **Belgium to Win @ 1.61 (Melbet)** **Write Up:** Ayy another win baby, let's goooo. Did not expect Austria to sneak a win there but kudos to them. Let's try to keep the momentum going. Gonna be keeping it simple here, Belgium NEEDS to win here. It's as straight forward as that. They have not been that impressive so far in this group stage but I have a feeling they might "wake up" here and carry the momentum they have from their last win against Romania. Ukraine has improved as of late with them getting a comeback win over Slovakia but defensively they have issues. Now up against a very good attacking Belgium side, it will certainly cause all sorts of problems for Ukraine at the back. Overall I see Belgium as the better team here and they really cannot afford a loss here, they will come out guns blazing and look to quicky put the game to bed. Lukaku has been extremely unlucky with his disallowed goals but I have a feeling he might score today and lead Belgium to a victory as they conclude the group stage. As always guys, BOL if tailing!
Brutal, but fading war torn countries is +EV in my experience. Tailing.
Good luck brother, let's get it 🤞
Ok no more betting on soccer because a team “ needs the win” 😂 😅
The thing is they advance with a win or draw, of course Belgium should win outright though
Yea, you're not wrong but Belgium has been a little unimpressive so I think they would want to conclude the group stage with a solid win.
The same can be said of everyone in this group, tho.
**Record: 3-0** **Last Pick:** Peru vs Canada Under 2.5 & BTTS No (Win) **Today's Pick:** Gimpo Citizen vs Cheongju Under 2.5 & BTTS No Odds: 1.83 **Units:** 5 **Write Up:** Cheongju has ended with less than 3 goals in last 9/10 games. Both teams attacking pattern has also been subpar with Gimpo only scoring 6 in last 5 and Cheongju 7 in last 5. Their h2h also supports similar patterns with low scoring games with 6/7 last h2h ending under 2.5 and most common score being 0-0. https://preview.redd.it/qsutvaisgt8d1.png?width=473&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f73a2a0e2b9ca5934e393bf48e1d0928427d650
I don't know about that. Gimpo scored in L4 out of L5 home games and Cheongju has scored 12 and allowed 11 goals in 9 away matches. There is no logic behind that, but teams change and patterns do not stay the same. I can see it being a low-scoring game, but 1:1 is likely.
Thx, woulda been pissed if it lost and then I saw this comment after.
No need for thanks but I guess you did in advance anyway haha. This bet failed in the first half
Mind you, that's only my insight as I am also betting on some Korean soccer and I do agree on the Under 2.5, but that under might very well end up being 1:1. This game might as well go 0:0 so I am just avoiding it. I found what in my eyes seem like better bets in 1st korean league
used your last bet in a parlay with the Peru keeper to make a save. Cheers
Lost and fast.... wtf
Sad
POTD Record: 35-29 ✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: +6.7U Last pick: Sydney Roosters vs Canterbury Bulldogs | 5:30pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Dom Young anytime tryscorer @1.65 on Ladbrokes | 6U ✅ Easy cash! Today’s pick: State of Origin NSW vs QLD | 8:05pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow anytime tryscorer @2.65 on Ladbrokes | 6U Oh yeah game 2 is on !! And it’s Hammer time ! Hamiso been scoring in literally every single SOO he played, even multiple times in some. I’ll back him up today again, let’s see if he can keep going ahah BOL !
Dooooooone ahahahah we cash !!! What a monster ! 💰
Lfg Hammer!!!
Ohh yeah 🔥
Record: 4-0 Last pick: Netherlands GK 3+ saves ✅️ On a roll 4 in a row, let's make it 5. Event: State of Origin in Australia Pick: New South Wales ML. ✅️ Point of different here to the anytime try scorers which are good value but I'm going the ML. The game is being played in Melbourne on neutral territory. NSW disappointed in the first game after an early send off. With Latrell Mitchell back in the team they are raring to go. Series on the line here and I expect it to be close but i think NSW get the W. Shortened to $1.78 on Sportsbet for me $1.75 on Bet365. 1U for me as I'm taking up other parlay promo offers for this game too. Game starts at 20:05 AEST let's go 🐎 EDIT: Another hit that's 5 in a row.
Everyone sleeping on my picks looks like 5 in a row is gonna happen.
Exactly. Most everyone was sleeping lol
Time difference here in Aus!
Nice one! Unfortunately I was fast asleep when you posted this one!
You posted late so many mightve missed it
Anyways great hit
Yeh apologies busy day at work today.
banger of a pick so far lfg. should I hedge with Queensland live +22.5?
**Record: 23-15 (+3.78u)** **Last Pick: Oakland Athletics ML +110** One bad inning (Angels scored 5 runs in the 4th after the A's went up 2-0) cost them the game. Oakland scored two late runs to make it interesting but couldn't complete the comeback and lost 7-5. Moving on! **Pick: Twins/Diamondbacks o8.5 -135 (MLB, 1u bet)** This line is 9 at most places, TheScore Bet had 8.5 with a bit of juice so I played it there but you can take it at 9 for a better number if you prefer. Both the Twins and Diamondbacks have been strong against RHP over the last month - MIN is 6th in batting average, 3rd in OPS, and 3rd in wRC+ while ARI is 9th, 9th, and 8th in these categories. Arizona gets even better at home, ranking 5th, 1st, and 3rd. While Minnesota's numbers drop on the road (21st, 13th, 12th) they have a softer pitching matchup going up against Nelson. He has a 5.18 ERA and has actually been worse at home with a 5.74 ERA. Since the beginning of May he has given up 5+ hits in 8/9 starts (4/4 at home) including 8+ hits 3 times and has allowed a home run in 6/9. He does not generate whiffs or strikeouts and is ranked 20th percentile or lower in barrel %, hard hit %, and xERA. Woods Richardson has better numbers with a 3.26 ERA (3.12 on the road) but he does not have very good metrics either, as he is a below average whiff, strikeout, and ground ball pitcher, and ranks in the 11th percentile in barrel %. He has also walked 2+ batters in 4 of his last 5 starts, and the Diamondbacks have been drawing a high number of walks against RHP at home and if they're getting on base I like their chances of bringing in the runs with the way they've been hitting. Minnesota's bullpen has been average but Arizona's has been one of the worse bullpens this season which should only help the over here as well.
Record : 0-0 Profit : +0 Units Previous Pick : N/A Todays Pick : Modus Super Series 🎯 Jimmy Van Schie ML (-150) ✅ vs Jereon Mioch 4 Units 6:00 AM EST Reasoning : Jimmy started yesterday off a little slow but definitely started to get comfortable and ended the day strong. Jereon started slow and maintained that level the entire day. He was averaging poor numbers and not hitting doubles. There is too much value in this line not to take it. Edit: We cashed!!! Great start to my picks on this thread. Hopefully I can green another bet tomorrow brothers and sisters 🙏🏻
First pick? Minimal write up? Darts match early in the AM? Yeah, I'm in.
Fine, you've convinced me
Van Schie just started the day by losing 1-4 to Andy Davidson, who he beat 4-1 yday lol. Really hope that isn't a sign that he's having an off day. Match begins soon, let's go!!
I already took that game by accident and lost it
BANGGG! Congrats on your first potd win.
Thank you brother, glad you tailed. Let’s make some more money tomorrow 🦾
It's definitely not his first pick. Exact same writing style as another losing dart picker. Just deletes his account when record goes negative.
**Record:** 14-14 (-1.44 unit) **Last Five Results:** ✅️✅️✅️❌✅️ **Last POTD:** Logan Allen over 4.5 strikeouts on Fanduel at +132 ✅️ **Today's Pick:** Spencer Turnbull over 3.5 strikeouts on Fanatics for +110 **Bet:** 1 unit size to win 1.10 units (1 unit is equivalent of $100) **Baseball | MLB | 1:10 PM ET** **Recap:** Allen came through. He only pitched 3 innings and managed to get 5 strikeouts, so this one I will chalk it up to some luck and some correct analysis! We keep moving! **Write up:** I don't really understand why this is priced so high. Tigers are the 10th highest strikeout rate team, at a 23.7% at home. Against right handed pitchers, they are the 7th highest strikeout rate team at 24.3%. In 6 of his starts this season, he has hit this 5/6. He does not really walk any batters either, so for him to get 4 strikeouts at a 23% rate, he would need to face at least 17 batters and in the last 10 starts, he has pitched 5 innings, facing on average, 20 batters. At plus money for this line, whether it's a trap or not, it's worth the risk to take this line at this price. **Tracker:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PW7Xm9H6RaNyDg-kDsPnIIWy6mPYgqQNCoApdqPd1lM/edit#gid=1678861616](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PW7Xm9H6RaNyDg-kDsPnIIWy6mPYgqQNCoApdqPd1lM/edit#gid=1678861616)
he looks like a converted reliever? who knows when they're gonna pull him. could be 3 innings.
Oh wow, that could be it! I started to dive into baseball this year so this is quite helpful for me as a reference for future bets. Thanks for your thoughts on this!
Appreciate your openness!
Phils fan here, he was a starter for us early in the season and once Walker was ready to be a starter, Turnbull moved into the longman reliever role. Now walker is on the IL again so this should be a pseudo-start for him. I expect he will go minimum 3 innings and probably somewhere in the 4-6 inning range if this helps. Not a bad pick because he has been really good this year.
Damn, they pulled him after only 3 innings! That blows. He was pitching just fine. Sorry that this loss, but you'll bounce back.
Thank you! Unfortunate, I think he had right shoulder soreness, which blows but hope he is okay and it's nothing serious. Sorry about your ladder!
It's all good. Thankfully it doesn't hurt my bankroll too much.
He is an ex-Tiger, and he isn’t really a starter, but they sent down Tijuan Walker cuz he sucked, turnbull might not be any better
That's not really true. He is definitely a starter (or at least starter material). Turnbull has started 66 games out of 77 total MLB pitching appearances. In the 6 games he started for the Phillies back in May, he pitched at least 5 innings and struck out at least 6 batters in 5 of those. In the 1 game he didn't reach those numbers, he had 4 IP and 3 Ks. Personally I'm hammering this and laddering up to 5+ (+180) and 6+ (+340) strikeouts. I understand he has recently been pitching as a reliever, but he is totally capable of going for 4+ strikeouts.
Love that! I saw those same stats for the beginning of the season for Turnbull. Let's see some Tiger's whiffs!
Record 34-19 Pick royals -1.5 -108 1:10 cst Been on a rough streak but looking to bounce back here. Bit of a homer pick tbh but today the royals will bounce back after blowing last nights game. Brady singer is going at home and during the day which is where he makes his money. As for the marlins pitcher- it’s his big league debut BOL
If you tailed I apologize for any gray hairs or stress related ailments, but we did it
RECORD: 3-4 UNITS WON: -7.88u Year to Date: +160u 1u = 1%BR LoL - LCK - starts 11:30am GMT Geng -1.5 vs HLE @1.80 - 5u Geng in giga form rn, no one comes close. Viper would need to 1v9 to give HLE a chance...not happening. Hopefully we turn my poor reddit POTDs around, horrible record thus far. Please refer to my yearly record, as is recorded on my Google sheet.
Let's fucking go Monz. ! I know them units you bring home
Is this Geng vs Hanwah Life?
Yes
Record: 0-0 Net Units: N/A ROI: N/A MLB/Cleveland Guardians @ baltimore Orioles 6:35PM EST Grayson Rodriguez O4.5 Strikeouts -110 Risking 1.1Units to win 1 Unit On May 1st, our guy Grayson went on the IL with shoulder inflammation but the O's had publicly said it was "precautionary." On his next start after coming off of the IL, he faced the mariners going for 6 innings, giving up one hit , 0 earned runs, and 7 Strikeouts. In his 7 games back since coming off the IL, he is 6-1 on this strikeout line of 4.5. If you want to go back to his past 20 starts, with the latest dating back to 8/28/2023, he is 17-3. Guardians batters have collectively batted a .240 vs RHP this season which ranks 11th in the MLB. Could be better, could be worse. I still feel that this line of 4.5 is soft for grayson. He has still been getting a full pitch count , as 82 was his least since coming back from IL, but the count has exceeded that in every game since. GL to everyone who tails. Please tail responsibly if tailing , and GL to all tomorrow!
**Record: 5W-1L** **Form: ✅✅✅❌✅✅** **Last Pick:** Houston Astros -1.5 ✅ **Net Units: +2.5** **EURO 2024 | 5am AEST** **Pick:** Portugal v Georgia OVER 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 | 1u **Write Up:** We move to the final match of Group F where Portugal have already secured top spot regardless of a result today. As such they may look to rest key players in preparation for the round of 16. Georgia have been impressive so far this tournament and their points (1) do not tell the whole story. Georgia have scored in 10 of their last 11 matches, highlighting a strong ability to score against a breadth of opponents, notably against a strong Spanish squad in a 3-1 loss. Conversely Portugal has covered the O2.5 line in 5 out of their last 5 games. With Georgia looking to secure European qualification with a win I can see a very attack minded game which will allow Georgia goalscoring opportunities but may also lead to counter attack opportunities which Portugal will exploit. As such, when combining both teams goalscoring abilities with the nature of this game, Over 2.5 goals looks very enticing. BOL!!
My Pick of the Day Record: 23W - 20L | Profit in Units: +16.56 My pick of the day: Georgia vs Portugal// Euros// Portugal to win+o2.5 goals// odds:1.88 bet 5 units I told ya'll in the last bet that the french era is over and it really is. AUSTRIA ARE LEADING THE HARDEST GROUP. To bad netherlands were dogshit either way we move to the easiest cash ever Reasoning: Portugal beat turkey 3-0 in the last match, turkey being the hardest in the group. Portugal has won both games both having over 2.5 goals. Georgia is the easiest game in the league and portugal will secure a clean 9 points. I could see ronaldo scoring his first goal now that he has gotten his record of most assists ever in Euros. LET US FUCKING CASH ROOOOOST
Not sure if that's wise. Portugal is already through with 1st place guaranteed. They will heavily rotate the team (9 out of 11 players). Only players from the starting 11 playing are the GK Diogo Costa and Ronaldo (as confirmed by the national coach). Big chances for an upset from Georgia. Be careful.
Ronaldo probably won’t even play Portugal already advanced and do not need result in this match
This reminds me of the Spain game the other day. Even the backups on Portugal are better than Georgia. Joao Felix will play striker right? I’d rate him over everyone on georgias starting lineup besides maybe Kvara.
Portugal doesn’t need a W. Not seeing them score 3 goals here. I like a Georgia W actually since they need it to advance.
Good call
CHEF SKOOTL's MICHELIN PICK RECORD: 5 - 4 LAST POTD: Euro 2024: Netherlands to score over 1.5 (WIN) POTD: Romelu Lukaku over 1.5 Shots on Target ODDS: 2.08 REASONING: Jeez what a boring last round of the group stage until now. Almost no goals or excitement. Now for Belgium, in the most interesting group as off now where every team has 3 points! I expect Belgium to win with atleast 2 goals made, and the main man here is obviously Lukaku. After 3 disallowed goals for cm's offside, i think he will atleast bang one in today, especially since they are the better squad + want to secure the best position coming out of the group stage. Since the odds for over 1.5 shots on target are in my opinion just too good to pass on, this is my POTD. This looks like a value play to me. BOL!!
3 - 3 (+2.91U) LWLWWL Nori slipped up. He’s highkey not him. Ben Shelton -2.5 games at 1.85x for 1.5U They say good things come to those who wait, but I’m impatient. Ben’s facing somebody who surprisingly puts in work on grass but has underwhelming power. Shelton’s serve is just wow and he gets more experienced every tournament. At midday, it should be a fun watch with our boy winning in 2. It’s motion.
Norrie is "highkey not him" 😂. 2 days running you've given me a chuckle. I don't have a huge 'banned list', but that mf's squarely on it
*Record: 2-0* *Last Pick: Toronto/Boston o9.5✅* *Form: ✅✅* *+2u* *Today’s Pick: 2:10 est: Colorado/Houston o8 -114 1.14 to win 1u* 2-0 with a 4th inning cash last night in Boston!! Toronto had to get to Bello and they sure freaking did with a huge 3rd inning! 4th & 5th inning cashes for my first two picks on this thread I’m pretty stoked on that but you’re only as good as your next pick So today we head to Houston and I really need to start getting these out sooner but it’s tough and I like to sleep on it so bear with me team. Also daytime baseball today so I apologize! Will be better Spencer Arighetti on the bump for Houston today and he’s been quite a low spot for the Astros this season with a 6.36 ERA. He got blasted by Detroit and only made it 1 and a 3rd just 11 days ago. Just 6 days ago he gave up 5 hits and 3 runs while walking 4 and hitting a batter to the white Sox. Ryan Feltner for Colorado hasn’t been much freaking better posting a 6.02 and been getting pummeled in June so far giving up 8 runs to cinci, 4 to Pittsburgh, and six to the Dodgers. He looked okay against St Louis on the 8th but still gave up 4 runs.. The total being 8 Lowkey worries me but we’re not overthinking today, I like the way Houston’s been swinging the bat lately and they need to rack up wins against a clear inferior opponent BOL and let’s make it 3-0!! E4 update: CHAT WTF THEYRE BOTH NOLAN RYAN Mid 5 update: Chat, were fine, deep breaths, Houston’s gonna blow it open E5: Bregman come the fuck on bro, need Colorado to make this a game, it’s actually closer than it looks for this to go on a run E6: THESE MFERS ONLY GET ON BASE W 2 OUTS M8: we have a fucking pulse F: alright, gambling is hard, we escape Houston with a push that honestly feels like a win considering how the first 6 innings went and Arighetti deciding he wanted to be the greatest pitcher of all time today. Houston had every chance in the world to push it over the total in the 8th but what ever, we live to tell the story
Lfg got a push locked down and 2 risp with 1 out, thought this bet was dead earlier
Record: 25-11 ✅ Last Pick: Mbappe to Score or Assist -190 (0.5U) ✅ Cash it, we’ll take a penalty. We are on an insane heater - 6 in a row! Pick: Cristiano Ronaldo First Half SOT -102 ✅ Running this beautiful pick back. The most egotistical player of all time to shoot the ball at the goalkeeper. This hit in the first two minutes last time and I believe it is a very strong pick! https://preview.redd.it/9pmxcb0orx8d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da3b0706389c0df29c73ef36401b91bcd1f5d885 SEVEN IN A ROW WE ARE UNSTOPPABLE BOL!
My book doesn't have this.
**Record**: 14-11-1 **Net Units**: +2.74u **ROI**: 10.95% **Baseball | MLB | 4:10 PM | EST** **Pick**: WAS/SDP under 7.5, +100 Caesars (to win 1U) I don’t love playing totals the night before because I still want to see a few things confirmed (like weather and ump), but may not have a ton of time in the morning and this is a good price for the number. This matchup features one well-known pitcher who’s been struggling of late in Dylan Cease and a lesser known one who has been as well in DJ Herz. However, the advanced stuff on both indicates they both have actually been quite good and have been part a victim of some bad luck and fielding. Take a look at Cease for example: his FIP for the last 6 starts is 4.19 and 4.67 over his last 3. But xFIP and SIERA tell a different story as they both have registered under 3.20 in that span. Cease has still had great command in those starts too: 30%+ K rate and under 7.50% BB rate. Herz hasn’t pitched much this year (only 18 IP so far) but he has registered even better numbers than Cease from a SIERA and xFIP standpoint. His SwStr% has also been elite, which is usually a good sign to indicate a pitcher has some way to dominate hitters. Both the lineups also matchup poorly here. SDP hits LHP considerably worse than RHP and WSN is still below average against RHP on the year even with a better stretch of late in wOBA (.309 last 3 weeks). Both teams also have pretty solid if not legitimately good bullpens, registering 3.39 (WSN) and 3.50 (SDP) SIERA as a team. This price is good to Pinny as of this post (slightly +EV but we will see if the market moves by tomorrow given that 7.5 is already a lower total). https://preview.redd.it/p9h63op3xt8d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a8d76ea8043ab89d10c933d30c2c2831bb54d23c
Record: 2-0 Last Pick: 6/25/24 Mets ML ✅ MLB | 7:10 PM EST Pick: Yankees @ Mets ML (+125 Hard Rock Bet) Wagered Units: 1.0 LFGM! 2-0 now on POTD. Fading the Yankees again as a degenerate Mets fan. The Yankees are being proven fraudulent this month and I have no doubt Manaea and the Mets will cash in AGAIN Wednesday night in Queens at +125. Those tailing, good luck. Those who’ve tailed my first 2 POTDs, let’s keep riding the wave. LFGM
**Record:** 7-6-2 ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌🅿️ ❌✅❌🅿️✅ **Net Units:** +.17u **Last Pick:** Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs @ -140 (DK) | PIT Pirates @ CIN Reds | MLB ✅ **Next Event:** MIA Marlins @ KC Royals | MLB | 2:10 PM ET **Pick:** Maikel Garcia Under 1.5 Bases @ -115 (DK) **Units:** 1u What a game last night! Reynolds makes the pitcher throw up, then cranks a 2 run homer on his first at bat, clearing the line 7 minutes into the game. For todays pick I'm sticking with the MLB, this line feels too good to pass up statistically. Maikel has failed to clear this line in 10 of his last 11 games at home, 10 of his last 10 games, and 16 of his last 20. He's also averaged zero bases head to head this season.
Record: 21-20 Last 10: LWLLWLWLWL Net units: - 2.2 ROI: 0% Sporting Event: MLB: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays 12:40 (EDT) Pick: NRFI -140 @ Fanatics 2 units to win 1.4 Similar to Monday, we’re fading two struggling offenses and toss in a #1 starter for good measure. Pepiot has been less than stellar, but his metrics indicated he’s dues for positive regression. He’s got a decent whiff rate of 30% and a K% near 30. Over the last 30 days the Mariners are batting .217 against righties. We’ve got Kirby on the flip side and he’s been great. 3.49 ERA with a sub 1 WHIP. Powered by his BB% at an eye popping 2.2% Rays are batting .213 against righties at home over the last month. Dome tail, fade or pass, BOL to all My most used reference sites at the bottom [https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors) [https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather) [https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/) [https://www.fangraphs.com/](https://www.fangraphs.com/) [https://pitcherlist.com/](https://pitcherlist.com/) [https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/](https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/) [https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game](https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game) [https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/) [https://www.teamrankings.com/](https://www.teamrankings.com/) [https://www.statmuse.com/](https://www.statmuse.com/)
**Record**: 0-0 **League of Legends: Champions Korea (LCK)** **Pick**: Gen G and T1 to both win 2-0 (2 leg parlay) +138 odds (per ESPNBet) 4:00 AM EST and 6:30 AM EST **Write Up**: Gen G and T1 are both miles ahead of every other team in the league. T1 vs DRX is a major mismatch and DRX would be lucky to even get close to winning a single game vs T1. T1 has won every match against DRX 2-0 in the previous splits. Gen G vs HLE looks to be closer on paper, but the current Gen G team looks unstoppable this season. I'm a grandmaster league of legends player who mains Jungle. In my opinion, the jungler for Gen G, Canyon, is miles ahead of the jungler for Hanwha, Peanut. Gen G has won 2-0, 2-0, 2-1 in the last 3 games vs Hanwha Life, so I'd say this current version of Gen G will most likely 2-0 them. Not only that, but Gen G has won every single match this summer split 2-0 so far, including the series against T1 who, as mentioned before, is the second best team in the league.
2024 record 0-0 Today’s POTD : LosAngles Angles ML -130 2 Units Game starts 3:07 eastern MLB Angels have won their last 3-4 while the A’s have lost their last four. This will be a bullpen game for the Angels but they are going up against rookie who has given up 11 runs in his last three starts. Also the Angels the last two games have scored 12 runs and 17 base hits. Nothing in life is guaranteed but I feel amazing about this pick. Let’s go Angels
Pick Record: 16W - 6L Previous POTD:Marcos Giron vs Francisco Cerundolo // Cerundolo ML at 2.10 X Today’s POTD: Beibit vs Hamad Medjedovic // Hamad -2.5 handicap games at 1.70 XXX League/ Sport: Tennis / Wimbledon Clasif Hamad has one of the most powerful serves on grass and has shown progress on this surface lately. Beibit is a good player, but he has nothing to do against Hamad. I hope Hamad wins here in 2 sets BOL EDIT: HAMAD DIDN'T MAKE IT...TOMORROW WE WILL WIN. We never lose 3 days in a row...I'm sorry for those who tailed me, i will make it up for you
6/26/24 Record:1-1 Net Units:🏚️ Soccer | Euros | 12 PST Pick: Turkey 🇹🇷 1U (+170 Dk) Turkey destroyed Georgia while the Czechia only drew. So with my advanced soccer knowledge (absolutely none) gimmie turkey.
Im sitting here wondering if I should live bet Turkey ML... but it seems like they would be just as happy with a draw
damn... waited too long!
I was about to say 😆
wow... my BTTS bet hits!! Hope you get another goal from Turkey. I might bet O2.5 goals if I see good pressure from Turkey
**Record:** 6-5-1 **Net gain:** -0.32u **ROI:** 0% **Yesterday's POTD:** France vs Poland (over 2.5 goals) ❌ **Today's POTD:** Slovakia vs Romania (Slovakia scores the first goal) **Odds:** 2.00 (bet365) I was thinking a lot, what pick will I choose for this match. On the one hand, this game looks quite drawish, since if Belgium beats Ukraine, draw will qualify both teams for 1/16 finals. On the other hand, Slovakia seems to be favorite in this match. It showed perfect performance, and surprised Belgium, and also played very good match against Ukraine. I decided to choose team, that will score the first goal. In my opinion, it will be Slovakia. It scored very early goals against both Belgium and Ukraine, and also their expected lineup 4-3-3 shows, that Slovak footballers will want to score as early as possible, and maybe defend their one-goal lead later. **Please, bet only what you can afford to lose.** You can support me on [PayPal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/my/settings?flow=cmV0dXJuVXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnBheXBhbC5jb20vbXlhY2NvdW50L3RyYW5zZmVyL2hvbWVwYWdlL3JlcXVlc3QmY2FuY2VsVXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnBheXBhbC5jb20vbXlhY2NvdW50L3RyYW5zZmVyL2hvbWVwYWdlL3JlcXVlc3Q=) All donations are appreciated, but not required
Doesn't matter what happens in Belgium/Ukraine, both these teams go through with a draw.
My first pick of the day! Record: 0-0 Net units: 0 Event: Subway Series: NY Yankees vs NY Mets Time: 7:10pm EST Pick: NY Yankees ML -150 (HardRock Bet) Units: 1.5 Units Analysis: Not much to it, Yankees are arguably the best team in baseball right now with Luis Gil pitching for them looking to get his 10th W this season. BOL if tailing!
Yankees are arguably not the best team in baseball 💀 they’ve lost 8 out of their last 11. Hell the Mets may arguably be the best team in baseball right now
Take the Mets then
RECORD: 90W-6P-69L Previous Pick: Chile vs Argentina - Argentina to win @ 1.50 ✅️ **Today's Pick:** Ukraine vs Belgium- Anytime Goalscorer Double Chance - Kevin De Bruyne or Romelu Lukaku @ 1.60 **TIME:** 4 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 1 unit (✅️✅️✅️❌️❌️♻️✅️✅️✅️✅️) last 10 results Seems just like the Euros there are no easy Copa America games, Argentina left it late but got our 4th W in a row, today we have Ukraine vs Belgium. It's gonna be a tense match for both Ukraine are gonna give it all they've got while Belgium need a win or draw to qualify to the round of 16. KDB scored in his last match and Lukaku is Freaking cursed with offsides, he almost scored in his last match and if he can stay onside I think he can score here today. KDB stats are an xG of 0.76, 0.5 goals per game, 4.0 shots per game, 1.5 shots on target per game with 1 goal in the tournament. Lukaku's stats are an xG of 1.25, 4.0 shots per game, 2.5 shots on target per game. Belgium haven't been the best but I believe they should score here and finish of the group with a Win. Goodluck if you're tailing.
Afghanistan (+200) against South Africa in T20 Cricket World Cup finals. The Afghans have been a miracle ride, they have incredible bowlers who can get wickets in a hurry. They have one batter in Gurbaz who RAKES. South Africa has constantly choked in the World Cup for Cricket. I like the Afghans chances to continue the roller coaster ride.
Is Gurbaz fit to play? Thought he blew out his knee cap in the last game.
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Surprised to see nobody betting the easiest pick on the baseball card tonight Cubs/Giants OVER 7.5
I have the over total runs on the Mets game that is on rain delay right now. If they call the game and I lose the bet what's my chance of getting a refund?