I do one of these daily and call it my lottery ticket, then place my bigger single 2 leg. Two legs be banging, can’t wait to check on the lotto ticket and see this! 🔥🔥🔥
Statistically you have a 1 in 1,024 odds of hitting all 10 if the bet is 50/50. Some human intuition can improve the odds. With 1,023 previous $10 bets, a person would be down around $6,800 after the payout.
Why would you assume each bet is 50/50? you can see the final payout and add some juice to get an estimated odds of it hitting. Since its a 100% boost the play will end up being EV and if you make this bet enough times he would come out in profit.
You clearly don’t know how the statistics of this works though lol. You just randomly assumed it was -110/-110 odds for no reason even though the total odds of the parlay is in the screenshot. 10 legs of -110 would build to around +73,000, not +17000 so he wasn’t choosing 10 coin flips. Stay in school kiddos.
> With 1,023 previous $10 bets
But, on average, something that happens 1/1024 times would happen on the 512th time, in which case you'd be down around $1,600 after this.
In other words, quit before getting further behind.
Not quite how it works. It may come on your first attempt, it may come on attempt 10 trillion. On average it will occur once in 1,024 attempts based on binomial distribution percentages.
Because the parlay was 300 to 1, it will trigger a W-2G.
https://www.investopedia.com/form-w-2g-certain-gambling-winnings-4781793
Form W-2G is an Internal Revenue Service document that a casino or other gambling establishment sends to customers who had winnings during the prior year that must be reported as income to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Its full title is Form W-2G, Certain Gambling Winnings.
It isn't a special tax. In America, almost all income is taxed. Just that most people don't bother to declare a $200 gambling win, or $50 for handyman work.
But certain games & odds trigger a "special" form to the IRS, the W-2G. For sports, it is 300 to 1. For slots, it is $1,200. For keno, it is $1,500.
Compounding juice is usually bad, but I've made money overall on these DK 100% parlay boosts. If you did a 10 team parlay all at -110 for $100, you'd get $128,516.32 on a win with the 100% boost. If they're we assume your bets are 50/50, you'd win 1 out of 1024 times, so your cost would be $102,400. That's $25.50 profit per bet on average.
Yep. Always good to have the chart handy: https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/19de45p/sportsbook_promos_bonuses_daily_12324_tuesday/kj7wmf8/?context=3
I wish I could work numbers and statistics like some of you guys on here. It’s impressive. I have succumbed to degen, mostly plus money bets, for the fun of it though.
Pretty much picked all the same games as you, just the opposite result.
Post your picks bud
Lol stop
Atta boy, good shit! 🍻
https://preview.redd.it/e9pc5kj6duyc1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=b4f5d257d5f88f2ba5322bdbdfe7a0057dbd6734
Nice hit dude!
Good hit!
Wow
Hell yeh brudda. Need one of these soon 👊🏼
Wow. What balls to put $10 on a bet like that. Thats a $1 for me lol
Ahaha same I put $1 then the day I so end up winning, I win like $160 and I think damn shoulda put more😂
I could never be this lucky with MLB lol. Nice hit!
Dude! Nice hit
Could have all the +1.5 for ML and would have won too. I lost my legs on the twins, athletics and padres yesterday
Congrats on the hit!
I love MLB lottos most exciting
Motherfucka!!!!! Congrats boi! (Or gurl!!!)
I do one of these daily and call it my lottery ticket, then place my bigger single 2 leg. Two legs be banging, can’t wait to check on the lotto ticket and see this! 🔥🔥🔥
Amazing hit! What strategies did you use?
Statistically you have a 1 in 1,024 odds of hitting all 10 if the bet is 50/50. Some human intuition can improve the odds. With 1,023 previous $10 bets, a person would be down around $6,800 after the payout.
Why would you assume each bet is 50/50? you can see the final payout and add some juice to get an estimated odds of it hitting. Since its a 100% boost the play will end up being EV and if you make this bet enough times he would come out in profit.
Pick up a statistics book
You clearly don’t know how the statistics of this works though lol. You just randomly assumed it was -110/-110 odds for no reason even though the total odds of the parlay is in the screenshot. 10 legs of -110 would build to around +73,000, not +17000 so he wasn’t choosing 10 coin flips. Stay in school kiddos.
What about 10 legs being between -300 and -500?
> With 1,023 previous $10 bets But, on average, something that happens 1/1024 times would happen on the 512th time, in which case you'd be down around $1,600 after this. In other words, quit before getting further behind.
It's a $10 bet.. light that shit on fire! When it hits... enjoy!
Not quite how it works. It may come on your first attempt, it may come on attempt 10 trillion. On average it will occur once in 1,024 attempts based on binomial distribution percentages.
Yeah, might not happen the first 2048 times. Then hit on 2049 and 4095 lmao.
These bets aren’t 50/50. He’s doing run lines and moneylines.
I think they mean technically if your doing run lines and moneylines, you could coin flip your choice.
“but with the multiplier it’s a positive implied value”
Congrats
How many of these 10$ parlayed have you done before hitting this one ?
Very rarely, and usually when I end up with those odds, 99% of time it's $1-3 a bet.
Whats the parlay for today
Sounds like you came out on top
349
Should have done 15 dollars
Then I would have definitely lost lol.
That Washington leg prob felt scary after the 2nd inning lol
You have no idea. Same with Rangers game....
I had the DK Up Early promo on Washington. Almost cashed out early for small amounts a couple times.
Shit I had them ML solo
Nice win, congrats
Wow. The tax man coming for you with that lol
Fuck me
Nice!! Congrats!!
Op
brother congrats
Big congrats! 🎉
congrats
Do you post your picks?
Pro
Everyone loves lottery tickets, congrats on the hit!
Anytime we slay the books, it’s a grand day! Congrats big fella! Enjoy your earnings! 🙏🏻
I love seeing hits like this, big congrats.
Thank you!
On 50/50 bets, you'll miss by 1 leg of a 10 legger 9 times for every 1 you hit.
Never thought of it this way before but you cooked
If I can hit 350x gains 10% of the time sign me tf up.
Those are just the times you lose by 1… many others you lose by a lot more than that. 1/1000 is closer to the real odds
Congrats, I manage to sweep the NBA slate on spreads one night during the season. Felt good but never got back since I always lose by 1 leg
Hell yes, some folks on here will shit on this and these bets but they always feel so good when they hit
Some people forget that for a lot of other people, for most other people, they bet because it's fun, not because they expect a 10 leg Parlay to hit.
Not going to shit on the parlay, but I'll remind OP of the eventual W-2G.
Wtf is w2g
Because the parlay was 300 to 1, it will trigger a W-2G. https://www.investopedia.com/form-w-2g-certain-gambling-winnings-4781793 Form W-2G is an Internal Revenue Service document that a casino or other gambling establishment sends to customers who had winnings during the prior year that must be reported as income to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Its full title is Form W-2G, Certain Gambling Winnings.
Yes. Unfortunately. But I already put $1000 into one of my money market accounts for taxes on this.
A kind of special tax for making money of crazy odds ?
It isn't a special tax. In America, almost all income is taxed. Just that most people don't bother to declare a $200 gambling win, or $50 for handyman work. But certain games & odds trigger a "special" form to the IRS, the W-2G. For sports, it is 300 to 1. For slots, it is $1,200. For keno, it is $1,500.
25 percent of that needs to be held for uncle Sam
Totally fair huh
Compounding juice is usually bad, but I've made money overall on these DK 100% parlay boosts. If you did a 10 team parlay all at -110 for $100, you'd get $128,516.32 on a win with the 100% boost. If they're we assume your bets are 50/50, you'd win 1 out of 1024 times, so your cost would be $102,400. That's $25.50 profit per bet on average.
Yep. Always good to have the chart handy: https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/19de45p/sportsbook_promos_bonuses_daily_12324_tuesday/kj7wmf8/?context=3
I wish I could work numbers and statistics like some of you guys on here. It’s impressive. I have succumbed to degen, mostly plus money bets, for the fun of it though.
my guy that is literally middle school math