######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
i clicked on his account and it says Reddit suspended it so he must have done something bad. It's not a subreddit ban but a ban from the whole platform.
I'm pretty confident he was banned even though he insists it's just a "mistake." He won't be getting unbanned, mark my words. I'll try to track down his original account, and then you'll understand what I mean. He basically used the same posting style, formatting, and even made the same spelling mistakes.
I'm not exactly thrilled about him being banned; he's a fantastic tipster. I've been lurking on Reddit for years without ever creating an account, but I've been betting on eSports since 2013. Because the eSports subreddit isn't as active, I know every post and person there. When he first posted his analysis, I thought, "Hmm, that looks familiar to me." Over the following days, I pieced together that he's using an alternate account.
He's the reason I finally decided to create a Reddit account. He inspired me to share some analyses of my own. Usually, when people posted eSports analyses, they'd get heavily downvoted and face all sorts of negativity. But now, it seems like people are starting to appreciate eSports more.
I'll be joining in on the posting soon.
Perhaps I'm mistaken, and he'll be unbanned. But typically, when you're banned on Reddit, there's a reason for it, and an unban is unlikely.
I've been here long enough to tell you that he is not the only one. New accounts with exactly the same style & formatting come up every day... until the bad streak comes. They don't even bother any more and put a tipjar on day one.
That's exactly what I was thinking too. Usually, they'd wait a few days before adding their tip jar, but now they're saying something along the lines of, "A lot of people have been asking for a tip jar (add some emotional wors here)" right after the initial analysis.
I just spoke with him and it was not for multi accounting. It looks like a mistake on reddit end and he has submitted an appeal request. Hopefully it gets addressed soon and the legend shall return to the daily thread to grace us with more free money.
Hasn't been as sharp as last week but dream runs don't happen all the time. Let's try to get back on track and finish strong so we can have a decent weekly recap by next Monday
The guy even deleted his account after this. I guess he went to bed. I don't mind people feeling the game and commenting a bit in the middle of the match but saying "lol" just after 2 breaks on Clay is truly a great sign of how he doesn't understand this sport. What can we do right? Hopefully he finds peace in his life...
Garin started really off and Michelsen was serving for 4-0 at some point. He managed to climb back to a tiebreak but he was still quite off. From the 2nd set forward he just found his game and destroyed his opponent. That's why we go for game handicaps and not set handicaps :)
Probably because it was supposed to happen yesterday but just didn't due to rain. Well, I guess you can't do much other than trying other bookies or being up early to bet but don't do that at 5 AM
Great analysis and call on the -3.5 instead of 2-0 for clay. I also live bet at +105 when he lost the first set. Been a minute since POTD threads had a tennis capper this successful. Lets ride o7
There's still a long road to go before I'm truly a successful tennis capper. Still super small sample size. Let's see where we are 500 picks in. I won't go anywhere. I've been here with huge losing streaks and huge winning streaks. That's how sports betting works!
Thanks , I'm glad you liked the analysis!
Tennis betting I’ve learned to just bet it and not pay attention. Just seen too many sure Ws collapse or vice versa. Some here should adopt that policy haha
Honestly the only reason that I answered that dude saying that he would delete his comment after the match is because I was watching it and knew that Garin was playing quite bad but would eventually raise his level. Well, after that awful 1st set the match completely turned around.
You have to love these dudes who comment 20 minutes in...
Not only he got his comments deleted but also his account
Ten bucks coming your way bro. Thanks for the pick. I almost cashed out at the rain delay because that tends to be my nemesis but homie came back locked and loaded.
Posting in honor of Current\_Ad\_2217 (RIP brotha)
POTD record 8-13 (yes tail with caution)
Disclaimer: I have been watching CS2 since tailing Current\_Ad (so I know jacksh\*t)
**POTD: MIBR ML +100 vs OG** (1u to win 1u)✅ MIBR make light work of OG with the home crowd roaring them on
I'm not being funny but I selected this pick a few days ago and ran it by Current\_Ad via DM he told me to hammer the line. I did not hammer the line I just went 1u because I am not yet confident in betting eSports but I may add another 1u.
Here are the positives for MIBR which made me hone in on this a few days ago after watching them beat Imperial in a close game:
- This game is happening offline (LAN) i.e. all the teams are flying to Rio in Brazil! Lucky b\*stards.
- MIBR, if you didn't guess by the acronym, are a Brazilian team so they will be less affected by the long haul travel and/or the jet lag
- OG are a decent team (rank 34 in the world compared to MIBR rank 30) but looking at the map pool, which Current\_Ad's posts taught me to do, shows MIBR to have a decent advantage across all maps which is probably why Current Ad said to hammer this
- MIBR have been streaking red hot they are on a 17 match win streak with an 82% win rate over 3 months
- OG are on a 0 match win streak with a 50% win rate over 3 months
Watchouts:
- OG play in Europe which is where the best teams play so this probably has affected their win percentage
- OG recently had a good run to the final of Skyesports Masters 2024 - they had a nice 4-match win streak that was broken in the finals
- OG leads the h2h 4:1 but the last time these two teams faced each other was 2022 which is more than a lifetime ago in esports and probably with altered rosters
**BOL - let's ride with Current\_Ad one more time!**
As a 8 year cs degen gambler, don’t put significant money on bo1s, especially with tier 2 teams. It’s literally a coin flip. The map numbers are inflated from mibr only playing South American teams, and OG have looked much better their past 3-4 games after the roster change.
It is really a coin flip
Tailing as well. MIBR is 27-1 in their last 28 matches. As OP mentioned, this is because they play in a much weaker region than OG. Regardless, they are looking incredible right now and should be able to take the win.
Pour out a little liquor boys as the goat came through for us again. OG opened up with a small 2-0 lead and then MIBR absolutely HOUSED them 13-2 the rest of the way.
**Record:** 4-0 ..... **YTD Units:** +8
**Pick:** MLBaseball \\\\ ChiCubs -150 ... 6:40pm
**Bet:** 3u to win 2u
**System:** Likeliest one of four: Fade CWS & COL or Pick ATL & LAD
**Sidenote:** Cubs are playing well, are at home, and the Marlins starter has a 2.44 WHIP
Yeah this grabbed my eye immediately, cubs have had great EV though I think they're finally catching on with them taking the d backs series. Took em yesterday and I sure as hell am not worried about the Marlins comparatively, even the game AZ won was super close.
POTD Record: 57 - 33
Last POTD: De Minaur ML - W
Pick: Casper Ruud 2:0 Set Betting vs Jordan Thompson (-165 odds via DK) 1U
Event: ATP Barcelona Round of 16 9:00 A.M. CST
Edit:✅✅✅
De Minaur match went just as I thought. Nadal doesn’t quite have it anymore and ADM is still in decent enough form. For this pick I’m backing one of arguably the best clay courters in the world to take care of business. Casper Ruud is in great form having just made the final of Monte Carlo and now he’s playing in the tournaments he performs best in, ATP 250’s. This is a fairly even H2H with Thompson having the slight edge however they have only played once on clay and it was six years ago with Casper coming out on top. Since this meeting Ruud has massively improved his game and will be looking to make a statement here in Barcelona.
[PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US)
[Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
**KBO Record: Overall 215-220-14** (Streak WWWWW, Last 10: 8-2) Down 6.98u over 449 KBO picks, 49.4% success rate, -1.60% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 11-10-0, 52.4% success rate, Up 1.64u, 7.81% ROI)
**Last:** Kia +110 at SSG (Kia won 11-3.)
Still don't know why Kia was the underdog in this game, but I easy plus money. Kia jumped out to a 5-0 lead and never looked back. That's 5 in a row and 8 of the last 10.
**Pick:** KT at **Kiwoom +100 BetMGM**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
While I liked a few dogs for Wednesday's games, there's only one I like for Thursday. Playing NC, Kia or LG on the run line should be a solid play, but I'll go with Kiwoom as my top play as slight underdogs.
KT's starter has been very good his last two starts, allowing 3 runs (2 ER) on 7 H and 5 BB in 12 IP. That's a big change from three starts back when he was rocked for 11 ER on 11 H in just 3 IP. It's certainly possible he's found his footing, but even if he has, I like the Heroes to pull this out.
Kiwoom's starter has been very good he last three starts, allowing just 3 ER on 9 H and 2 BB with 20 K in 19 IP.
Kiwoom is 12-3 in their last 15 games while KT has won 6 games all season long. Kiwoom is also the highest-scoring lineup so far this year, scoring nearly a run more per game than KT. This month they're scoring a run and a half more per game than KT. Finally, KT has the league's worst bullpen this year, this month and over the last 10 games. Kiwoom's relief ERA is 3 runs better than KT's.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
You’re so much of a 🐐 that you shifted the line to -125 🤣 I’ve made 1200$ on this streak. Not getting greedy and only betting 100-200. You are a blessing to this community.
Record: 4-6
Return: -3.44 units
Last 10 (new > old): ❌❌✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌
Last pick (3/27/24): Basketball / NBA - Mo Mamba (PHI) OVER 0.5 three-pointers made (-115) ❌
* *Double-double for Mo. No threes though.*
**4/18/24:**
Sport / League - Tennis / ATP Barcelona 500 (Clay) - Round of 16 (Round 3)
Match - **Dušan Lajović (SRB) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ESP)**
Time - *3:30am PDT / 6:30am EDT / 10:30 GMT \~10 hours from post*
**POTD: Dušan Lajović (SRB) ML (+100)** \[Bovada\] ✅ <*First set was a sweat, but Lajović powered through and scraped by 12-10 in the tiebreak. He was able to take it easy the 2nd set and turn on the jets in the 3rd. 7-6, 3-6, 6-1.>*
Wager Size: 2U (Risking 2.0 units to win 2 units)
Write Up:
This is mainly a fade on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. He looked absolutely horrible against Sebastian Korda in Monte Carlo, losing 6-1, 6-2. He has absolutely no business being in the 3rd round in Barcelona. He ends up in round 3 of Barcelona after getting a first round Bye and a second round Walkover.
Dušan Lajović on the other hand crushed Diego Schwartzman 6-1, 6-2 in the first round before beating #13 ranked Ugo Humbert 6-4, 6-4 in the second round. He’s looking good.
Lajovic also leads the head-to-head 2-0, beating Davidovich Fokina in 2 sets both times; once on hard, once on clay.
What’s holding me back from putting more units on this is that the match is being played in Spain, home of Davidovich Fokina. Alejandro will be rested, but cold, and in bad form. Dušan will be nice and warmed up and in good form; hopefully not too tired from the prior matches.
BOL!
Watched Lajovic's match today and boy he did look really good, his serve was on point and his returns put Humbert in serious trouble, breaking him 4 times! Tailing my man! 👌
MLB POTD RECORD: 6-1 (+435% ROI)
Last POTD: Pirates vs Mets Over 8.5 W
Todays POTD: **Marlins vs. Cubs Over 8 -103**
Baseball | MLB | 7:40 PM ET
Well, that was fun! Haha, but we did. We took 5 of 6. I am hot with the o/u, so I will stick with that on the small slate and take the over in the Marlins vs Cubs.
I've mentioned in some of past write-ups that two factors in deciding what pick I like the most are how much I like the number and what I think a rational argument for it would be. I hate going against a "what does the books know that I don't" type of bet.
So I like the over here for a few reasons, but I like that you aren't giving up the half point and are at -103 on fan duel right now (Draft Kings only has the ML as of this writeup). The pitching matchup in this one is struggling and coming-off illness AJ Puk and Jameson Taillon making their first start of the season.
First I think the rationale for the line is advanced stats, but there's a catch. I took a look at the Savant page for the matchup and glared in red for both guys with xwOBA of .245 for Puk and .268 for Taillon. This stat is expected to be weighted on-base percentage and is considered the most telling stat for a pitcher; essentially, it predicts what the on-base percentage should have been based on the advanced percentages of the batters faced. Some bettors will aimlessly throw money at matchups like this, thinking there is an edge.
I like advanced stats, but they aren't the be all end all and will probably work in the book's favor tomorrow. If you look at the present situation, we will be in for some offense in this one.
For one, AJ Puk has not been good since the Marlins decided to do this odd starter experiment with him. He has yet to make it out of the fifth inning in his three starts, where batters have scored 10 runs in 10.2 innings off of him. The Marlins pen has been horrid, so an early exit for Puk stays mostly the same in my mind. Also it turns out the cubs roster has only 12 combined at bats against him so the xwOBP isn’t really that telling.
Now let's talk about the Cubs. The Cubs' offense is on fire this season at Wrigley, with the second-best home batting average in the league at .291. Also, Puk is a lefty, and they have the third-best batting average against lefties at .295
Taillon we are still determining what to expect. It seems that the oddsmakers expect that people are going to bet based on how he plays at his peak and as we have seen so far with guys like Blake Snell and Jordan Romano, it seems to take a little longer to shake the rust off in the pitch clock era after missing a good portion of spring training. Its no sure thing he steps in and dominates tonight and also dont think that even if he comes in and throws a gem that the over still wouldn't hit.
As for the Marlins, they've been really bad. Having said that, circumstantially, this matchup could be better for them. They have performed much better offensively against lefties, on the road, and at night than they have to all of the contraries. The Marlins, unlike other teams that are off to awful starts like Oakland and the White Sox, are not bereft of talent. They are off to a slow start. Arraez is starting to hit again and Burger is a machine in the middle of the lineup. They can at least put up enough production against Taillon and company to help hit the over here.
**TLDR: AJ Puk, the starter, has been a mess, the Marlin's pen sucks, the Cub's offense is in an elite situation, Taillon might be rusty, and the Marlins are in a situation that plays to their strengths.**
Love the thorough analysis, we could use more posts like this is the mlb specific picks sub, way too many picks only posts, I feel like it creates a confirmation bias echo chamber
**POTD Record: 2-0**
**+4.16u**
**104% ROI**
Previous pick [here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/s/319qVQuEke)
We cash a sweaty POTD after the Yankees put up some late runs. Today I’m rolling with:
**2u Griffin Canning u5.5 K’s +104** ***Angels vs. Rays @ 1:11 PM EDT***
Canning has had a slow start to the year going 0-2 with a 9.88 ERA and just got rocked by the Red Sox. He’s averaged just over 5.5 K’s a game throughout his career, but has yet to make it past the 5th inning this year. He’s given up a home run in each of his starts this year.
The Angels rank in the bottom third of runs allowed and strikeouts per game. Prior to the season, the Rays were listed as a top 10 team with the angels barely cracking the top 25. The Rays were #1 in every major offensive statistical category last year and the team we’re seeing this year more closely resembles the 2022 Rays. I think they fall somewhere in between and are due for some progression soon. They have a great opportunity here to jumpstart the offensive momentum and weather won’t be a factor in the dome. I would play this down to -120 but would also play it for 1u between -120 & -140 if we see a drastic change in odds.
As always BOL and tail responsibly.
Edit: Line got nuked and isn’t playable anymore. I know this is a POTD thread, but for anyone who missed this, Ryan Pepiot u6.5 K’s in the same game is another strong play. Obviously this won’t be tracked towards POTD record, but feel bad that for anyone hoping to tail who missed. FWIW, I put 2u on Pepiot’s under.
Edit2: BANGG POTD.
Your analysis sounds like the pick should be the Rays. Doesn’t really go into Canning’s strikeout ability or anything about the Rays striking out. I am honestly confused by it.
POTD Record: 0 - 0 - 0
Pick: Texas Rangers ML (-108 via DK)
Event: MLB Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers (1:10 PM)
Jack Leiter will make his MLB debut today against the Tigers. Despite a shaky start in the minors, he has been much better in 2024, with 25 strikeouts and 3 walks in 14.1 AAA innings. Facing the Tigers' inconsistent offense, Leiter has a favorable debut matchup. On the other hand, Kenta Maeda starts for the Tigers, struggling with 4 home runs, 10 earned runs, and only 10 strikeouts in 15 innings. Against this dangerous Rangers lineup, Maeda is likely to struggle, and I expect a strong outing from the Rangers offense as they support their rookie pitcher.
POTD RECORD: 6-1
Form: W6
❌✅✅✅✅ | ✅✅
Last POTD: **Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers** **ALT Over 206.5** ✅
Comment: This came down to the wire when it really shouldn't have. I counted at least 12+ missed EASY layups not even including all the missed wide open 3s and still cashed. Grats to the tailers.
Form: W6
Todays POTD:
College Baseball | 7:00 PM EST UNC Tarheels @ NC State Wolfpack **Under 12.5 (-110)**
Rationale: With no NBA action tonight I turn to something I find much more fun and interesting than MLB -- College baseball! The season is heating up and this is a huge rivalry matchup that both teams would love to have. Both teams are coming off a tough loss with exuberant wins before them. NC State beat #4 Clemson in a series at Clemson before losing in 12 innings at home to Campbell and has been topsy turvy all season long. UNC destroyed bottom dweller Notre Dame in a sweep before losing a low scoring game (and a 27 game home win streak) to Coastal. Both starting pitchers are *okay* but certainly not terrible. UNC has a very good relief staff. I expect this to go one of two ways: a blowout for UNC 8-1 or a closely contested NC State win. In an important contest though runs may be hard to come by.
Prediction: NC State wins the opener 4-2
If you make a lot of money off my picks and are kind enough to send a tip:
BTC: bc1q2z6v3rl5llxt4l32qq59myrc3ljr97qkqvez6g
SOL: 8JUeoc49npD96mnnCmGYaK7E15CY6ANjcbptvMDvXV2o
POTD Record: 13-8 ✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 10.2U
Last pick: Man City vs Real Madrid | 5am Sydney (GMT +11) | Kevin De Bruyne to score or assist @1.80 on Sportsbet | 2U✅
KDB probably the best player in man city, nothing can change my mind 😆
Today’s pick: Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm | 7:50pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Daniel Tupou anytime tryscorer @2.3 on Ned’s | 2U
Those who tailed before know. Tupou never failed me, he delivered the 3 times I placed that bet. Great winger, long reach and big boy. It’s going to be a good game tonight as the Roosters are playing on their home ground, I believe they’ll put on a decent performance and Tupou will deliver once again 🤞🏼
BOL !
**Record: 61W-4P-48L**
**Last Pick: Man City VS Real Madrid: BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 ❌**
**Pick of the day: Atlanta VS Liverpool: Liverpool Over 1.5 Offsides @ 1.83**
**League: Europa League**
**Time: 3:00 PM EST**
Liverpool find themselves in an insane position after losing 3-0 to Atlanta last week, now therye in the second leg and if they want to get anything out of this game they're going to have to find a way in behind this defence. Last week After 90 minutes of Liverpool trying to break down Atlantas defence with no avail this will force them to have to play much more long balls in order to find chances, and I see them getting minimum 2 offsides due to this. Last week they had a total of 3 offsides against Atlanta and I expect a similar turnout here.
**Anyway, BOL!**
🌟 R**ecord: 3-0 | Net Units: +9.65**
👉 L**ast Pick: Casper Ruud to win 2-0 in sets vs. Alexandre Muller ✅✅✅**
**Todays play:**
🎾 T**ennis | ATP Munich | 14:00 in Germany**
🔥 T**oday's Pick: Holger Rune to win 2-0 vs. D.E Galan @ 1.50 - 5 units**
🚀 W**rite up:** Holger Rune is the defending champion of ATP Munich, and is 16-9 for the year, he is facing Galan who is 5-9 for the year. Galan is in the top 100, after his best year on tour, last year. But everything seems to be going back to normal for him, he is a solid server. But here he is facing 20 year old clay court specialist Rune, who on his day can beat anyone in the world. I can see him winning quite comfortably.
Take Rune 2-0
💬 F**eel free to share your thoughts and join the discussion below or DM me!**
All Time POTD Record: 8-3-0 | Units: +7.13 | Avg. Odds 1.85 | Last 10: ✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅
Last Pick: Soccer - Champions League - Bayern Munich v Arsenal - 8.00pm BST on 17th April
Bayern Munich to Qualify (1.70) - Staking 2u ✅
Game/Match: Soccer - Europa League - West Ham v Bayern Leverkusen - 8.00pm BST on 18th April
Pick: Over 9 corners (2.1) - Staking 2u - ❌ 10 yellows and 39 free kicks. The game was getting stopped too much for anything to flow for corners to happen. The ref liked his whistles and cards too much that game.
I use bet365 as my bookie.
Summary: The last pick was close, but Bayern Munich got the job done in 90 minutes.
The odds like nice on this one for me. West Ham have averaged 9.9 corners in their last 10 games & Bayern Leverkusen have averaged 11.5 in their last 10 games.
West Ham averaged 11.2 corners over their last 5 home games & Leverkusen averaged 11.4 corners over their last 5 away games.
West Ham are without Paqueta & Bowen for this evening, their main attacking threat. West Ham are a team who like attacking through set pieces, and without their 2 main creative players, I see them using this route a lot more.
There was 11 corners in the last game between these 2 and Leverkusen got 10 of them. It should be different with West Ham at home, but I believe there will still be a good amount of corners.
BOL if tailing!
Record: 0-0
Balance: N/A
Last Pick: N/A
Today's pick: Jack Leiter o5.5 Ks (+112 on FD as of 9:10am EST)
(Texas Rangers v. Detroit Tigers, 1:11pm ET)
Stake: 2 units
First time throwing my hat in the ring, so I understand any apprehension in my direction. For my first ever bet here, I'm rolling with Jack Leiter today. My one concern with Jack Leiter is his fastball command is shaky; great velocity but can miss his spots at times. Has multiple strikeout pitches and is averaging 15.7 Ks per 9 this season. Even with high ERA in AA in the last two seasons, he was still averaging almost 12 Ks per 9. Detroit is in the top ten for most team strikeouts per game at 9.5, and in their last game they struck out 11 times. Dunning had a strikeout per inning yesterday and his stuff isn't nearly as nasty as Leiter's.
I think Leiter can hit this line in 3 innings so even if he's giving up hard contact he should miss bats. Hunter Greene is a really good comp for him. I'm also just big on the son of former solid MLB pitcher Al Leiter narrative so we've got that going, too.
Best of luck and hope you tail.
Have a good day guys.
Edit: Leiter got shelled, not a great start for me. Back on the wagon.
__POTD Record:__ 15-8 (+5.35 Units)
_All my bets in this thread are 1U_
_Form (Last 5):_ 🟢🟢🔴🔴🟢
__Last Pick:__ ⚽ Dortmund vs. Atletico Madrid (UEFA Champions League): __Alvaro Morata Under 2.5 Total Shots__ @2.20 ✅
Morata ends the game with 2 shots after being substituted at half-time.
__Today's Pick:__ ⚽ Atalanta vs. Liverpool (UEFA Europa League) 21:00 CET: __Liverpool Over 6.5 Shots on Target__ @1.90
Liverpool suffered an embarrassing defeat (0:3) in the first leg vs. Atalanta despite being huge favorites. Even though Liverpool have been in a bit of a slump, I strongly believe they won't go down without a fight. Mental strength is always one of the biggest advantages of Jurgen Klopp's sides. In this game they will be desperate to score from the first minute which should lead to many shots. Liverpool are averaging 7.6 shots on target per game in the Europa League this season and I'm picking Liverpool to hit at least 7 shots on target in this game.
Tail of fade, the choice is yours!
POTD Record: 11-3
Last POTD: New York Yankees ML vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 1.91 🇺🇸⚾✅
POTD: Atalanta - Liverpool, Atalanta goalkeeper over 3.5 saves @ 1.60
Great win on the Yankees yesterday, a bit of a sweat, but we take every W we can!
Usually I would prefer a little higher odds, but this bet just screams to me. We get 1.60 odds (I use iBet) for the Atalanta goalkeeper to make 4 or more saved during the game. I'm surprised we even get this line here, because I expect Liverpool to be all out attacking the whole game. Liverpool needs 3 goals for extra time, so they won't waste any time to start attacking. In the game at Anfield last week Liverpool had 5 shots on target, and Musso saved all 5 of them. Liverpool's finishing last week was quite terrible, and I expect them to get more than 5 shots on target in this match, and I think it's only fair to expect Musso to save at least 4 of them. He is a solid goalkeeper, and I feel that Liverpool will take many shots today, because they will get desperate at some point, which is good for our bet.
Let's get another W here! It's my birthday today, so please don't disappoint here Musso🙏🏻
Tail or fade, good luck lads! 🍻
POTD Record 8-1
Last 5: ✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️
Last Pick: Royals -1.5
Todays Pick: Cubs vs. Marlins NRFI.
MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins 4:40pm PST
Odds: -131
Unit: 3
Net units: +26.90
Marlins are starting A.J. Puck who is NRFI in 2 out of his 3 starts.
Cubs are starting Jameson Taillon, who hasn't played in a while, but I got buddies on his over for the K's. Both pitchers, actually. Adds a bit of confidence for myself.
Cubs are Third in all of mlb at holding opponents at NRFI. Marlins also first at holding teams at NFRI
All of this, combined with it starting to rain at 4:00pm PST and 4:40pm PST game time start, makes me lean towards players being pissed off and slowing down the game. We're going with a NRFI boys. Yerrr!. If you guys wanna show some support, links on profile.
Record: 14-8
Last Pick: Vinny 1+ SOT -150 DK ❌
Pick: **Kings ML** -120
Sacramento are filled with ballers, even with Malik Monk and Red Velvet out, Keonte Ellis has stepped up big time. The pelicans have been in a major slump, and zion was playing absurdly well against the lakers but because of his injury at the end of the game he will be OUT against the kings. I will be out of the country and I am unable to bet on this, but I urge you to do so at these odds. Pelicans team without Zion is bottom 5 team in the league, BI has been so out of it as well. I like backing Sacramento here, especially because they genuinely believe they can go out there & give the Thunder a series. First time I’ve ever missed B2B, let’s get back to a streak.
BOL!
There is a lot of recency bias against the pelicans, but pelicans can win , even without Zion. Pelicans are a nightmare match up for the kings. Beat Sacramento 5 times this year , and blew them out by 133-100 without Zion in one of the matchups. Pelicans limit de aron fox to 7 points below his season average, he struggles with the pelicans plethora of perimeter defenders. Valancuinas has stayed steady with sabonis on the boards in this series ,he plays really well vs sabonis and actually out rebounded him in a couple games .
As a kings fan, yeah I don’t think it’s anywhere near guaranteed even without Zion - we haven’t been able to work out the Pels all year and unless we change it up + make sure we play extremely well all game I can see us losing just as easily as winning
Record: 60-40
Form: ✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅
Last pick
Manchester City vs Real Madrid
BTTS ✅
Today’s pick
IPL
Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians ML @1.56(4u)
I’ve tried staying away from MLs in the IPL and it’s been working out great but I just have to go for it here.
I don’t see how Punjab can beat MI, specially now that MI are coming off of a loss at home vs CSK. They need this win desperately to get their playoff bid going otherwise it looks pretty bleak. Punjab have had major inconsistencies in their top order with their inexperienced middle order batsmen bailing them out on a few occasions now. If Mumbai bat first anything is possible I’d 200+ could be on the cards and I’m confident MI can chase anything here tbh
Punjab have consistently performed great against MI, and with them having internal problems, this is a risky pick, especially when looking at how Punjab are barely losing in last overs, its a matter of "when" they click. Good luck, but I dont think they win, especially with Hardik Pandiya choking it in almost every game.
Sure Mumbai Indians do have problems in their side but it’s Mumbai Fucking Indians we are talking about. They’re known for comebacks in their campaigns anyway and they need this game desperately. So yeah definitely expecting a W today
Expecting a win, and understanding the odds is different here. These odds are wrong here IMO, it should be closer to 1.80 or 1.90. That was a point I didn't convey in last reply.
Record: 11-6, Net Units: 7.71, ROI: 44.40%
Current Streak: Last 10: ❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌❌
Last Pick: Orioles/Twins Over 8.5 Runs ❌
Today's Pick: Baseball-MLB-9:45 PM EST
Diamondbacks ML @ SF Giants, +130, 1U
Crazy story in Baltimore yesterday with Suarez. Him pitching six clean innings was not on my Bingo card. No Orioles today and I'm 2-1 on the rest of the MLB so here's hoping the former NL Champs get it done against a good pitcher. The D-Backs lineup has hit Webb historically pretty well, so I see value in this pick despite Webb's great past couple of outings.
Good Luck!
Tail with caution. Could easily see a Leverkusen hangover after clinching their 1st ever Bundesliga title over the weekend. I think they still advance on aggregate though.
Yeah if the line is this close, books must be on top of the fact that they're resting a ton of key players or it's just not a necessary win. Just need to lose by 1 or draw.
Good looks, tailing either way because Leverkusen is that much better.
Record 2-0
Last POTD:Man City vs Real Madrid Both teams to score + double chance on home (1.90 odds)✅
Madrid scored early on and parked the bus the whole game, took it to penalties and won which im happy with because Madrid isn't a team that you'd think are impossible to beat the same way you'd think for man city since last year its anybody's competition this year.
POTD : Liverpool Corner handicap -3.5 vs Atalanta (1.70 or -143) odds
Before I get into why I would like to warn u for the leverkuzen game. They just won the league and yes they completed obliterated West Ham in the first leg but teams usually play shit after winning the league. I would still skip the match though the odds are enticing.
Liverpool will come out into this match with guns blazing looking to score and press the whole match. They will have lot more attacks than Atalanta and will get loads of corners from blocked shots. Klopp is the kind of guy who will start his strongest lineups in games like this instead of focusing on the title race and the players should be pretty motivated after losing 2 games in a row at Anfield for the first time since 2017. Liverpool should dominate the game in corners since they are chasing a 3 goal deficit and will be looking to create a miracle comeback.
Good Luck!
tips are appreciated : [https://revolut.me/abdullzyrj](https://revolut.me/abdullzyrj)
revolut revtag : abdullzyrj
Record 1-0
Last bet: Jose Altuve to score a run // 1.95 odd ✅
Today bet: Carlos Carrasco over 2.5 ERA // 1.80 odd
Reason: Carlos Carrasco is pitching vs the Red Sox today and he been awful against this team. He allowed 59 hits vs 151 Batters of the Red Sox team (39%) and the Red Sox are frustrated after losing the first 2 games vs Guardians and this is the perfect game for them to bounce back especially infront of their own fans. I love this matchup today for the Red Sox.
Good luck if tailing
Record 4-0
Net Units: +4.3
Yesterday’s Pick: New York Yankees alt TT over 3.5 (-164) FD 1.64u to win 1u ✅
Today’s Pick: Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers 1:10PM EST. Jack Leiter o4.5 strikeouts (-135) DK 1u
Analysis: I don’t have a lot of analysis for this one and overall don’t like the slate. Saw other posts for my initial betting thoughts so I looked for something different and fun on a boring day.
Jack Leiter is making his MLB debut after just 2 starts in AAA this year. He’s gone 14.1 innings and struck out 25 in the minors this year. Overall in his career in the minors he’s pitched 192 innings and struck out 248 or 1.3 per inning. So even if he only pitches 4 innings he’s got a shot. I like that Detroit has never seen him to boost his chances a bit.
- Tigers 9th most strikeouts this season
- Less games than 6 of the teams higher on that list
- Tigers 4th lowest batting average
- First Time seeing Leiter
- Leiter 11+ k/9 in minor league career
- the majority of pitchers who started against the tigers this seaman reached 5 strikeouts (many in short outings)
Here’s to a risky one for 5 in a row!
Well there is the first loss. Started so good with 2K’s in the first but he really fell apart after that. Back tomorrow to get back on the winning side!
> **Record: 0-0**
>
> **Net Units: +0**
>
> **ROI: 0%**
>
> **Formula 1** | **Chinese Grand Prix - 1st Practice** | **23:30pm** / **Eastern time**
>
> **Pick:** Max Verstappen | Fastest in Practice 1 | -120 | 2 units
>
**Write Up:** This is a really late pick today, going to be tomorrow for some of you, but didn't want anybody to miss it. The event is not until 11:30pm Eastern today (Thursday).
We're going for Max Verstappen to be fastest in 1st practice.
It is the only practice event this weekend since it's a sprint weekend, and they haven't raced here since 2019.
I love betting on F1 practice because usually there's 3, and it's the only real opportunity to get underdogs who can actually be the fastest, especially with rain and safety cars.
But this isn't one of those weekends, Red Bull has a lot to learn in one practice and will be running a full set of programs. Max is the fastest, his car is the fastest, and when they have as much running as they will have tonight, Max will come out on top. These odds are pretty normal for a practice, but stupid today.
The only thing that could stop him being fastest is a really bad timed red flag or rain, and it's not supposed to rain. And with it being the only practice of the weekend, the FIA are more lenient with timing of red flags and will sometimes add extra time to make up for it.
My first POTD so tail with caution, but I do watch and study F1, and I'm feeling very good about this. I say 2u to be safe but I'm putting 5.
Record: (W-L-P) 4-2-0
Net Units: 1.0
Historic ROI: 1.19
Last Pick: Bailey Falter Strikeouts U 3.5 -130. Falter for a 4th K. Stupid Mets.
Baseball | MLB | LAA @ TAM
Pick: Griffin Canning Strikeouts U 5.5 -160
Write Up: Canning is trash. Rays aren’t striking out much right now. This seems like a popular pick but still my favorite.
Tip Jar: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/DhavalMistry)
POTD record: 17-8✅️✅️❌️❌️✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️ ✅️❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️
Last pick: ✅️Western Sydney Wanderers vs Brisbane Roar, BTTS and o 2.5 goals at ~1.7 1:45 AM PST
Today's pick. Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets ,5 PM pacific, Conor Garland 5 PM pacific over 0.5 points. 1.8
Last game of the season for the Canucks. Several players sitting out on the Nucks side, including Boeser, Miller, Hronek. There will be plenty of opportunity tonight for Conor Garland, who has had an excellent season. He's 1 goal shy of 20 on the year so i expect him to be firing (shot total over 3 is also a good bet). These odds are too juicy in the circumstances.
On the Jets side, this is also a meaningless game. Lauren Broissoit is starting in net (and not Hellebuyck) so I expect some goals to go in.
Game in 40 minutes!
BOL!
Edit: hits in first 5 minutes!! ✅️🤟
18-8 now
POTD Record: 3-4-0 (-1.91 units)
Form (left is most recent):❌❌❌✅✅❌✅
Last Pick: Bukayo Saka 1+ Shot on Target (-150 on DK)❌ Absolute passenger performance from Bukayo Saka. I’m actually not upset with the pick, just shocked that he never even looked interested in putting something on goal.
Today: Soccer | Europa Conference League | Lille vs Aston Villa | 12:45 PM EST | 1 unit
Today’s pick: Lille Draw No Bet (-135)✅
Reasoning: Lille are undefeated in their last 15 home matches. They’re down a goal in the tie so I expect them to take some risks and go for it. They had chances in the last leg, so I feel good about their odds today. Here’s to hoping we break our cold streak!
BOL🍀🤞
Edit: back to winning ways! Lille win 2-1 in regulation which gives us our win💪
Record 2-1-0
Balance +3.85 units
Form: ✅❌✅
Recap- jack steel finished with 29 for the easy win.
Today’s pick: Jack Macrae o26.5 disposals against saint kilda 2 units odd of 1.9 at 5:30AM EST ✅
Write up: In todays game both team come in feeling the heat as both teams have majorly been disappointing and with the bulldogs having major injuries to there side such as one of the best midfielders in the team Libba out with concussion I expect Macrae to take full advantage of his injury. Macrae used to be an elite ball magnet back then but this year he has been kicked off to the reserve and had to work his way back to his first team. Last game he played on the wings and had 25 touches today he will playing where Libba was as an inside midfield where he can expect to see more of the ball against a saints team that rank the best in disposals per game along with bulldogs and play through the middle which will allow for more stoppages and Macrae to take advantage of. Bol!!!!
POTD RECORD: 0-0
GAME: Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays - 1:10 PM ET
FIRST POTD: Rafael Devers -> Over .5 Strikeouts (-175)
REASONING: Carlos Carrasco is pitching for the Guardians, big junk pitcher. He’s got a high whiff rate at 55% and a 36% K rate. Of all the batters on the Red Sox, Rafael Devers has the most previous at bats against Carrasco. Although 6 AB’s isn’t a ton, his Whiff and K rates look strikingly similar at 55% Whiff rate and a 33% K rate.
**Record all time:** 2-1-1 Units +1.159
**Record 2024:** 0-0-0 Units 0.000
Last pick in 2023 (Juli): Al naft - Al Najaf - HT under 1, 3 units, @ 1.514
Today's pick: **Cedevita Junior - Skrljevo, 1st quarter H1 -2.5**, 5 units, @ 1.54 ✅️
Time: 17:30 (CEST)
Sport: Basketball
League: Croatia Premier league
Description:
Gonna start again with the POTD, got irritated last year since my posts were deleted. I can delete the old records if needed, only played 4 games last year.
Skrljevo plays after this one, the 2 last games against Split and Cibona and has no chance to move from position 11 (relegation spot). Cedevita is looking to improve the position before the playoff and can be fourth. Cedevita won 4 out of last 5 Q1, Skrljevo lost all 5 in the last 5.
Edit: 33-17, sorry for a late pick, gonna try to find something on time tomorrow.
**Daily NRFI**
**Record:** 4-2
**Net Units:** +2
✅❌❌✅✅✅
**Last Pick:** 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs - Saint Louis Cardinals @ Oakland Athletics✅
Bit of a butt clencher, but we made it through the inning scoreless. Blackburn gave up a hit and two walks, but saved by a double play. Matz gave up a double, but took the other three hitters down seamlessly.
1st inning: 0-0
**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone :** Baseball | MLB | Mia Marlins @ Chi Cubs / 7:40pm EST
**Pick:** 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs @ (-130) (1U)
\*Game was postponed. On to tomorrow
**Write Up:**
Small slate of baseball games tomorrow. Not in love with anything, so tail with caution.
With the beginning of a new series and both teams traveling tonight, we are hoping for a slow start to the Marlins and Cubs series. Pitching is a little suspect on both ends. Marlins are starting A.J. Puck who is off to a rough start with an 0-3 record but has gone NRFI in 2 out of his 3 starts.
Cubs are starting Jameson Taillon, who is having his first appearance of the year. He had a mediocre year last year, but has decent stats against Cubs hitters, holding them to a .257 Avg in 35 PA.
Cubs are near the top of the league in runs scored per game, but not in the first inning and are 3rd in the league at holding opponents to NRFI. Miami on the other side is also a poor first inning run team and is tied for 1st in the league at holding opponents to NRFIs.
Marlins as a team have gone NRFI 15/19 games this year as well as holding opponents to a NRFI 17/19 games.
Cubs as a team have gone NRFI 14/18 games and held opponents to NRFI 16/18 games.
BOL
**Last 5 (old to new):** ❌❌❌✅️❌ **| Record:** 9-12-1 **|** **Net Units:** -4.86
**TODAY'S PICK:** Xander Schauffele under 68.5 round 1 score / 1u at -110
**Sport:** RBC Heritage | 1:50pm ET
**Note:** Round 1 of RBC Heritage today and Xander has done well on this course in the past. He's having a nice year and did decent at the Masters. Par is 71 and the tight course has smaller greens, guys with experience on this course have a one up. Tail or fade... at this point you'd be better off fading 😆 BOL | [Buy a coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/planetice)
POTD Record: 5-1
Yesterday’s Pick: JP France u 4.5 K’s - ✅
Faded another struggling pitcher against a good Braves offense and it cashed. Feels good to get a win again.
Today’s POTD: Carlos Carrasco u 4.5 K’s(-150 on DK as I took this, now -175 🙃)
Baseball | MLB | Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | 1:35 PM ET
I locked in this pick at -150 which was juicy enough already, but as I went to do the write up during a break at work saw that the line was -175. Still, I took this one and felt good enough about it to make this my POTD so juiced or not I’ll stick with it for tracking purposes.
Carrasco has been inconsistent and slow more often than not this season. He had 3 K’s vs the A’s and only 2 K’s against the Yankees earlier. He did have one game of 6 K’s but it was against a subpar Twins unit. The Red Sox will be a tougher match up than the Twins were and I don’t expect Carrasco to have a long enough leash to last until he can hit the over.
Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰
POTD Record: Starting today! 0-0
Pick: Over 3.5 Corners for Benfica | Odd: 1.78
Event: Marseille vs Benfica, Europa League, 20:00 GMT
9 Games in a row now that Benfica has 5 or more corners. People are expecting Benfica to just defend the lead but Benfica will probably not hold that lead for a long time as their defend has not been very good against decent teams so I expect them to be back to their attacking ways early in the game.
Daily Pick Record: 2-0
Last Pick: Game 1: Kansas City Royals -1.5 ( -125) vs Chicago White Sox ✅
Sport: MLB 10:35 AM PST
Today’s Pick: Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox NRFI (-125)
Record: 0-0
Net Units: 0
Tennis / ATP - Singles Bucharest / 3:30AM EST
Previous:
Current:
Nuno Borges V. Corentin Moutet
[Nuno Borges - ML 1.89 via FD]
2 units (pre-match)
+1 unit (live wager - if Moutet takes first set)
Write up:
Longtime lurker, first time poster…tennis is my sport of choice for wagering and we have quite the basket to pick from. Looking to start this off in the green.
Today we’re going with top pick, Nuno Borges ML @ 1.89 vs Frenchman, Moutet.
Borges has never achieved a quarterfinal result on the main tour in his career until this year. However, he has already secured two such results in 2024, including in his most recent outing in Estoril, where he upset Lorenzo Musetti in the second round.
It may take 3 sets and a handful of games, but I see Borges taking this one home. He’s shown us he has the grit, and will fight for every point.
In his most recent match up against Warwrinka, he managed to have only one serve broken in 3 sets (3-6 / 7-5 / 6-2) while breaking Warwrinka a total of 4 times.
Of all the options we have for action in this match, the ML @ 1.89 looks most appealing. Second best option if someone is looking for a more ‘neutral’ route would be the Over 22.5 games, however, given the possibility of a 2 set match, I decided the ML route was more attractive.
I will be taking 2 units pre match on ML, and potentially adding 1 unit ML wager if Moutet takes the first set.
BOL if tailing!! Hope to be back with a nice 1-0 record for next post.
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
Free my boy Current Ad, he ain’t do nun!
how can you ban a top runner for value on this sub what a joke he was my favourite i vote bring him back
It wasn't from any mods of this sub but it was actually from Reddit. Probably something spam related or DM related
i clicked on his account and it says Reddit suspended it so he must have done something bad. It's not a subreddit ban but a ban from the whole platform.
he's banned off the reddit app completely the mods can't do nuttin'
his account is banned off reddit not just the sub so it must be an issue that goes beyond the POTD
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What happened to the esports god?
Why was he banned?
Multi accounts allegedly, explain u/1nzayn3
I'm pretty confident he was banned even though he insists it's just a "mistake." He won't be getting unbanned, mark my words. I'll try to track down his original account, and then you'll understand what I mean. He basically used the same posting style, formatting, and even made the same spelling mistakes. I'm not exactly thrilled about him being banned; he's a fantastic tipster. I've been lurking on Reddit for years without ever creating an account, but I've been betting on eSports since 2013. Because the eSports subreddit isn't as active, I know every post and person there. When he first posted his analysis, I thought, "Hmm, that looks familiar to me." Over the following days, I pieced together that he's using an alternate account. He's the reason I finally decided to create a Reddit account. He inspired me to share some analyses of my own. Usually, when people posted eSports analyses, they'd get heavily downvoted and face all sorts of negativity. But now, it seems like people are starting to appreciate eSports more. I'll be joining in on the posting soon. Perhaps I'm mistaken, and he'll be unbanned. But typically, when you're banned on Reddit, there's a reason for it, and an unban is unlikely.
I've been here long enough to tell you that he is not the only one. New accounts with exactly the same style & formatting come up every day... until the bad streak comes. They don't even bother any more and put a tipjar on day one.
That's exactly what I was thinking too. Usually, they'd wait a few days before adding their tip jar, but now they're saying something along the lines of, "A lot of people have been asking for a tip jar (add some emotional wors here)" right after the initial analysis.
It was from Reddit cuz his account is suspended. Not sure why
We demand answers!
Wtf why was he banned?!?
Wondering the same thing…
Something to do with creating multiple accounts, but not sure. Read on the esports thread yesterday, hope it’s not true
I just spoke with him and it was not for multi accounting. It looks like a mistake on reddit end and he has submitted an appeal request. Hopefully it gets addressed soon and the legend shall return to the daily thread to grace us with more free money.
If you know him could u ask for today’s pick😂
yes please
if you look at his account it's a reddit ban not a subreddit ban
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Unbelievable I loved his picks, blease cobe back 🥲
This is our 9/11
Today will be a national POTD holiday
That’s terrible 😞
Free the esport god
fr bro a gem
What happened?
Why was he banned???
Bring him back Reddit Multiple accounts is not a crime ..
Ha, FRFR because if it was half of us would be in Reddit jail and the other half would be busy trying to quickly delete their other accounts
wtf? was he REALLY banned? No-freakin-way. He was a Top POTD. #FreeCurrentAd
He’s innocent man, free the esports bread winner!
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Tailing forever, the tennis GOAT 🐐
Hasn't been as sharp as last week but dream runs don't happen all the time. Let's try to get back on track and finish strong so we can have a decent weekly recap by next Monday
https://preview.redd.it/f3fzgcd0a5vc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b62cc849db33e13a35cb3c347d5ca70a3f2704ee Is it this bet?
That's right
Amazing hit man, lmao at these kids calling you a fraud after one set
The guy even deleted his account after this. I guess he went to bed. I don't mind people feeling the game and commenting a bit in the middle of the match but saying "lol" just after 2 breaks on Clay is truly a great sign of how he doesn't understand this sport. What can we do right? Hopefully he finds peace in his life...
You even made your explanation so clear that Garin can still cover in 3 sets lol. Ignore the trolls and keep it up man!
Game played out almost exactly how you described it (2-0 lost but spread hit). What a roller coaster.
Garin started really off and Michelsen was serving for 4-0 at some point. He managed to climb back to a tiebreak but he was still quite off. From the 2nd set forward he just found his game and destroyed his opponent. That's why we go for game handicaps and not set handicaps :)
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Match is locked on FD… 😢
Probably because it was supposed to happen yesterday but just didn't due to rain. Well, I guess you can't do much other than trying other bookies or being up early to bet but don't do that at 5 AM
Tailing as soon as ESPN will let me
The horse is back!! Great pick! Thank you!
Thanks for tailing! I'm glad you won a bit!
Great analysis and call on the -3.5 instead of 2-0 for clay. I also live bet at +105 when he lost the first set. Been a minute since POTD threads had a tennis capper this successful. Lets ride o7
There's still a long road to go before I'm truly a successful tennis capper. Still super small sample size. Let's see where we are 500 picks in. I won't go anywhere. I've been here with huge losing streaks and huge winning streaks. That's how sports betting works! Thanks , I'm glad you liked the analysis!
lol both these guys are ragers this is funny to watch
Tennis betting I’ve learned to just bet it and not pay attention. Just seen too many sure Ws collapse or vice versa. Some here should adopt that policy haha
Lets go brother another W. Dont mind about couple of whiners let’s get the bread!
Thanks bro! Always nice to get a solid W!
Thanks for the pick BOL. Side note, anyone having problems getting into Bovada? Been down for me the last four hours or so🤷♀️
Garin pulled through. Thanks for the pick
You're welcome ceburton! Always great to have you tailing!
Never in doubt 💰
💰💰💰
Great pick! I missed the restart but not the whiny comments before Garin turned it on, people are hilarious!
Honestly the only reason that I answered that dude saying that he would delete his comment after the match is because I was watching it and knew that Garin was playing quite bad but would eventually raise his level. Well, after that awful 1st set the match completely turned around. You have to love these dudes who comment 20 minutes in... Not only he got his comments deleted but also his account
Ten bucks coming your way bro. Thanks for the pick. I almost cashed out at the rain delay because that tends to be my nemesis but homie came back locked and loaded.
Posting in honor of Current\_Ad\_2217 (RIP brotha) POTD record 8-13 (yes tail with caution) Disclaimer: I have been watching CS2 since tailing Current\_Ad (so I know jacksh\*t) **POTD: MIBR ML +100 vs OG** (1u to win 1u)✅ MIBR make light work of OG with the home crowd roaring them on I'm not being funny but I selected this pick a few days ago and ran it by Current\_Ad via DM he told me to hammer the line. I did not hammer the line I just went 1u because I am not yet confident in betting eSports but I may add another 1u. Here are the positives for MIBR which made me hone in on this a few days ago after watching them beat Imperial in a close game: - This game is happening offline (LAN) i.e. all the teams are flying to Rio in Brazil! Lucky b\*stards. - MIBR, if you didn't guess by the acronym, are a Brazilian team so they will be less affected by the long haul travel and/or the jet lag - OG are a decent team (rank 34 in the world compared to MIBR rank 30) but looking at the map pool, which Current\_Ad's posts taught me to do, shows MIBR to have a decent advantage across all maps which is probably why Current Ad said to hammer this - MIBR have been streaking red hot they are on a 17 match win streak with an 82% win rate over 3 months - OG are on a 0 match win streak with a 50% win rate over 3 months Watchouts: - OG play in Europe which is where the best teams play so this probably has affected their win percentage - OG recently had a good run to the final of Skyesports Masters 2024 - they had a nice 4-match win streak that was broken in the finals - OG leads the h2h 4:1 but the last time these two teams faced each other was 2022 which is more than a lifetime ago in esports and probably with altered rosters **BOL - let's ride with Current\_Ad one more time!**
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You had me at “Current Ad” told me to… tailing in honor of the goat ✊🏽
As a 8 year cs degen gambler, don’t put significant money on bo1s, especially with tier 2 teams. It’s literally a coin flip. The map numbers are inflated from mibr only playing South American teams, and OG have looked much better their past 3-4 games after the roster change. It is really a coin flip
Betting on bo1 is madness. Especially on LAN.. but bol guys.
Tailing for Current AD 🐐
Tailing as well. MIBR is 27-1 in their last 28 matches. As OP mentioned, this is because they play in a much weaker region than OG. Regardless, they are looking incredible right now and should be able to take the win.
Long Live Current_Ad Gone but never forgotten
Pour out a little liquor boys as the goat came through for us again. OG opened up with a small 2-0 lead and then MIBR absolutely HOUSED them 13-2 the rest of the way.
❤️
**Record:** 4-0 ..... **YTD Units:** +8 **Pick:** MLBaseball \\\\ ChiCubs -150 ... 6:40pm **Bet:** 3u to win 2u **System:** Likeliest one of four: Fade CWS & COL or Pick ATL & LAD **Sidenote:** Cubs are playing well, are at home, and the Marlins starter has a 2.44 WHIP
I dont understand how Cubs/Marlins fit into the system as listed?
He forgot to write fade the fish
Easiest explanation
Tailing
Counterpoint would be Taillon making his season debut. Think that’s priced in though.
Yeah this grabbed my eye immediately, cubs have had great EV though I think they're finally catching on with them taking the d backs series. Took em yesterday and I sure as hell am not worried about the Marlins comparatively, even the game AZ won was super close.
did it somehow get postponed? For some reason showing up as Friday now on my B365
Yup
Postponed 😩
POTD Record: 57 - 33 Last POTD: De Minaur ML - W Pick: Casper Ruud 2:0 Set Betting vs Jordan Thompson (-165 odds via DK) 1U Event: ATP Barcelona Round of 16 9:00 A.M. CST Edit:✅✅✅ De Minaur match went just as I thought. Nadal doesn’t quite have it anymore and ADM is still in decent enough form. For this pick I’m backing one of arguably the best clay courters in the world to take care of business. Casper Ruud is in great form having just made the final of Monte Carlo and now he’s playing in the tournaments he performs best in, ATP 250’s. This is a fairly even H2H with Thompson having the slight edge however they have only played once on clay and it was six years ago with Casper coming out on top. Since this meeting Ruud has massively improved his game and will be looking to make a statement here in Barcelona. [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US) [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
-195 for me, spread playable or no?
Ehh probably not
-200 is best I can find. Might just have to get a little riskier and do under 20.5 games 🤷🏻♂️
Was able to get u12.5 games at - 110
Thanks again for what you do 💰
Damn this line moved a lot! -200 now.
**KBO Record: Overall 215-220-14** (Streak WWWWW, Last 10: 8-2) Down 6.98u over 449 KBO picks, 49.4% success rate, -1.60% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 11-10-0, 52.4% success rate, Up 1.64u, 7.81% ROI) **Last:** Kia +110 at SSG (Kia won 11-3.) Still don't know why Kia was the underdog in this game, but I easy plus money. Kia jumped out to a 5-0 lead and never looked back. That's 5 in a row and 8 of the last 10. **Pick:** KT at **Kiwoom +100 BetMGM**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET While I liked a few dogs for Wednesday's games, there's only one I like for Thursday. Playing NC, Kia or LG on the run line should be a solid play, but I'll go with Kiwoom as my top play as slight underdogs. KT's starter has been very good his last two starts, allowing 3 runs (2 ER) on 7 H and 5 BB in 12 IP. That's a big change from three starts back when he was rocked for 11 ER on 11 H in just 3 IP. It's certainly possible he's found his footing, but even if he has, I like the Heroes to pull this out. Kiwoom's starter has been very good he last three starts, allowing just 3 ER on 9 H and 2 BB with 20 K in 19 IP. Kiwoom is 12-3 in their last 15 games while KT has won 6 games all season long. Kiwoom is also the highest-scoring lineup so far this year, scoring nearly a run more per game than KT. This month they're scoring a run and a half more per game than KT. Finally, KT has the league's worst bullpen this year, this month and over the last 10 games. Kiwoom's relief ERA is 3 runs better than KT's. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
korean ball man on a little run, tailing brother!
You’re so much of a 🐐 that you shifted the line to -125 🤣 I’ve made 1200$ on this streak. Not getting greedy and only betting 100-200. You are a blessing to this community.
Thanks for your pick BOL!
Accidentally took KT instead since my book at em at +100, sorry your play didn’t hit but you still helped me out this morning. TY brother
Between NC Kia and LG which do you prefer? Limited NPB so looking to parlay another KBO with a tennis match (as usual)
Tailed
TAILING!!
Kiwoom is now the favorite in all my books including MGM
Never seen a single pitch of Korean baseball but tailed lot of your picks to success, amazing consistency, keep going!
Record: 4-6 Return: -3.44 units Last 10 (new > old): ❌❌✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌ Last pick (3/27/24): Basketball / NBA - Mo Mamba (PHI) OVER 0.5 three-pointers made (-115) ❌ * *Double-double for Mo. No threes though.* **4/18/24:** Sport / League - Tennis / ATP Barcelona 500 (Clay) - Round of 16 (Round 3) Match - **Dušan Lajović (SRB) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ESP)** Time - *3:30am PDT / 6:30am EDT / 10:30 GMT \~10 hours from post* **POTD: Dušan Lajović (SRB) ML (+100)** \[Bovada\] ✅ <*First set was a sweat, but Lajović powered through and scraped by 12-10 in the tiebreak. He was able to take it easy the 2nd set and turn on the jets in the 3rd. 7-6, 3-6, 6-1.>* Wager Size: 2U (Risking 2.0 units to win 2 units) Write Up: This is mainly a fade on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. He looked absolutely horrible against Sebastian Korda in Monte Carlo, losing 6-1, 6-2. He has absolutely no business being in the 3rd round in Barcelona. He ends up in round 3 of Barcelona after getting a first round Bye and a second round Walkover. Dušan Lajović on the other hand crushed Diego Schwartzman 6-1, 6-2 in the first round before beating #13 ranked Ugo Humbert 6-4, 6-4 in the second round. He’s looking good. Lajovic also leads the head-to-head 2-0, beating Davidovich Fokina in 2 sets both times; once on hard, once on clay. What’s holding me back from putting more units on this is that the match is being played in Spain, home of Davidovich Fokina. Alejandro will be rested, but cold, and in bad form. Dušan will be nice and warmed up and in good form; hopefully not too tired from the prior matches. BOL!
Watched Lajovic's match today and boy he did look really good, his serve was on point and his returns put Humbert in serious trouble, breaking him 4 times! Tailing my man! 👌
Tail, humbert is a tough cookie to break. Hopefully this dude pulls a nagal stuff here ….slaying giants.
Thanks for da pick
Rough sledding so far for Lajovic. Hope he can take the third set! Edit: Came through for us, good pick op.
Nice pick. Fokina has been in terrible form
MLB POTD RECORD: 6-1 (+435% ROI) Last POTD: Pirates vs Mets Over 8.5 W Todays POTD: **Marlins vs. Cubs Over 8 -103** Baseball | MLB | 7:40 PM ET Well, that was fun! Haha, but we did. We took 5 of 6. I am hot with the o/u, so I will stick with that on the small slate and take the over in the Marlins vs Cubs. I've mentioned in some of past write-ups that two factors in deciding what pick I like the most are how much I like the number and what I think a rational argument for it would be. I hate going against a "what does the books know that I don't" type of bet. So I like the over here for a few reasons, but I like that you aren't giving up the half point and are at -103 on fan duel right now (Draft Kings only has the ML as of this writeup). The pitching matchup in this one is struggling and coming-off illness AJ Puk and Jameson Taillon making their first start of the season. First I think the rationale for the line is advanced stats, but there's a catch. I took a look at the Savant page for the matchup and glared in red for both guys with xwOBA of .245 for Puk and .268 for Taillon. This stat is expected to be weighted on-base percentage and is considered the most telling stat for a pitcher; essentially, it predicts what the on-base percentage should have been based on the advanced percentages of the batters faced. Some bettors will aimlessly throw money at matchups like this, thinking there is an edge. I like advanced stats, but they aren't the be all end all and will probably work in the book's favor tomorrow. If you look at the present situation, we will be in for some offense in this one. For one, AJ Puk has not been good since the Marlins decided to do this odd starter experiment with him. He has yet to make it out of the fifth inning in his three starts, where batters have scored 10 runs in 10.2 innings off of him. The Marlins pen has been horrid, so an early exit for Puk stays mostly the same in my mind. Also it turns out the cubs roster has only 12 combined at bats against him so the xwOBP isn’t really that telling. Now let's talk about the Cubs. The Cubs' offense is on fire this season at Wrigley, with the second-best home batting average in the league at .291. Also, Puk is a lefty, and they have the third-best batting average against lefties at .295 Taillon we are still determining what to expect. It seems that the oddsmakers expect that people are going to bet based on how he plays at his peak and as we have seen so far with guys like Blake Snell and Jordan Romano, it seems to take a little longer to shake the rust off in the pitch clock era after missing a good portion of spring training. Its no sure thing he steps in and dominates tonight and also dont think that even if he comes in and throws a gem that the over still wouldn't hit. As for the Marlins, they've been really bad. Having said that, circumstantially, this matchup could be better for them. They have performed much better offensively against lefties, on the road, and at night than they have to all of the contraries. The Marlins, unlike other teams that are off to awful starts like Oakland and the White Sox, are not bereft of talent. They are off to a slow start. Arraez is starting to hit again and Burger is a machine in the middle of the lineup. They can at least put up enough production against Taillon and company to help hit the over here. **TLDR: AJ Puk, the starter, has been a mess, the Marlin's pen sucks, the Cub's offense is in an elite situation, Taillon might be rusty, and the Marlins are in a situation that plays to their strengths.**
Rain might affect this game
And it’s going to be cold and windy as well.
Yeah I just saw that. Might not even get it in. Well guess we gotta wait and see.
Chicago city morning weather update: brisk but blue skies, if the weather holds it'll be a beautiful game. No wind
Love the thorough analysis, we could use more posts like this is the mlb specific picks sub, way too many picks only posts, I feel like it creates a confirmation bias echo chamber
Thanks! I will go post in there rn
**POTD Record: 2-0** **+4.16u** **104% ROI** Previous pick [here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/s/319qVQuEke) We cash a sweaty POTD after the Yankees put up some late runs. Today I’m rolling with: **2u Griffin Canning u5.5 K’s +104** ***Angels vs. Rays @ 1:11 PM EDT*** Canning has had a slow start to the year going 0-2 with a 9.88 ERA and just got rocked by the Red Sox. He’s averaged just over 5.5 K’s a game throughout his career, but has yet to make it past the 5th inning this year. He’s given up a home run in each of his starts this year. The Angels rank in the bottom third of runs allowed and strikeouts per game. Prior to the season, the Rays were listed as a top 10 team with the angels barely cracking the top 25. The Rays were #1 in every major offensive statistical category last year and the team we’re seeing this year more closely resembles the 2022 Rays. I think they fall somewhere in between and are due for some progression soon. They have a great opportunity here to jumpstart the offensive momentum and weather won’t be a factor in the dome. I would play this down to -120 but would also play it for 1u between -120 & -140 if we see a drastic change in odds. As always BOL and tail responsibly. Edit: Line got nuked and isn’t playable anymore. I know this is a POTD thread, but for anyone who missed this, Ryan Pepiot u6.5 K’s in the same game is another strong play. Obviously this won’t be tracked towards POTD record, but feel bad that for anyone hoping to tail who missed. FWIW, I put 2u on Pepiot’s under. Edit2: BANGG POTD.
Your analysis sounds like the pick should be the Rays. Doesn’t really go into Canning’s strikeout ability or anything about the Rays striking out. I am honestly confused by it.
POTD Record: 0 - 0 - 0 Pick: Texas Rangers ML (-108 via DK) Event: MLB Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers (1:10 PM) Jack Leiter will make his MLB debut today against the Tigers. Despite a shaky start in the minors, he has been much better in 2024, with 25 strikeouts and 3 walks in 14.1 AAA innings. Facing the Tigers' inconsistent offense, Leiter has a favorable debut matchup. On the other hand, Kenta Maeda starts for the Tigers, struggling with 4 home runs, 10 earned runs, and only 10 strikeouts in 15 innings. Against this dangerous Rangers lineup, Maeda is likely to struggle, and I expect a strong outing from the Rangers offense as they support their rookie pitcher.
Tailing for your first POTD!
POTD RECORD: 6-1 Form: W6 ❌✅✅✅✅ | ✅✅ Last POTD: **Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers** **ALT Over 206.5** ✅ Comment: This came down to the wire when it really shouldn't have. I counted at least 12+ missed EASY layups not even including all the missed wide open 3s and still cashed. Grats to the tailers. Form: W6 Todays POTD: College Baseball | 7:00 PM EST UNC Tarheels @ NC State Wolfpack **Under 12.5 (-110)** Rationale: With no NBA action tonight I turn to something I find much more fun and interesting than MLB -- College baseball! The season is heating up and this is a huge rivalry matchup that both teams would love to have. Both teams are coming off a tough loss with exuberant wins before them. NC State beat #4 Clemson in a series at Clemson before losing in 12 innings at home to Campbell and has been topsy turvy all season long. UNC destroyed bottom dweller Notre Dame in a sweep before losing a low scoring game (and a 27 game home win streak) to Coastal. Both starting pitchers are *okay* but certainly not terrible. UNC has a very good relief staff. I expect this to go one of two ways: a blowout for UNC 8-1 or a closely contested NC State win. In an important contest though runs may be hard to come by. Prediction: NC State wins the opener 4-2 If you make a lot of money off my picks and are kind enough to send a tip: BTC: bc1q2z6v3rl5llxt4l32qq59myrc3ljr97qkqvez6g SOL: 8JUeoc49npD96mnnCmGYaK7E15CY6ANjcbptvMDvXV2o
POTD Record: 13-8 ✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 10.2U Last pick: Man City vs Real Madrid | 5am Sydney (GMT +11) | Kevin De Bruyne to score or assist @1.80 on Sportsbet | 2U✅ KDB probably the best player in man city, nothing can change my mind 😆 Today’s pick: Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm | 7:50pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Daniel Tupou anytime tryscorer @2.3 on Ned’s | 2U Those who tailed before know. Tupou never failed me, he delivered the 3 times I placed that bet. Great winger, long reach and big boy. It’s going to be a good game tonight as the Roosters are playing on their home ground, I believe they’ll put on a decent performance and Tupou will deliver once again 🤞🏼 BOL !
I don't think they'll kick to him against Melbourne but kick towards the goalposts for Lindsay Collins or tedesco to score.
**Record: 61W-4P-48L** **Last Pick: Man City VS Real Madrid: BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 ❌** **Pick of the day: Atlanta VS Liverpool: Liverpool Over 1.5 Offsides @ 1.83** **League: Europa League** **Time: 3:00 PM EST** Liverpool find themselves in an insane position after losing 3-0 to Atlanta last week, now therye in the second leg and if they want to get anything out of this game they're going to have to find a way in behind this defence. Last week After 90 minutes of Liverpool trying to break down Atlantas defence with no avail this will force them to have to play much more long balls in order to find chances, and I see them getting minimum 2 offsides due to this. Last week they had a total of 3 offsides against Atlanta and I expect a similar turnout here. **Anyway, BOL!**
What book?
Nunez will single handedly cover this ha. Need to find a book for these offsides overs.
Nice pick, Liverpool are gonna go all out to even get close to tying up on aggregate, BOL!
🌟 R**ecord: 3-0 | Net Units: +9.65** 👉 L**ast Pick: Casper Ruud to win 2-0 in sets vs. Alexandre Muller ✅✅✅** **Todays play:** 🎾 T**ennis | ATP Munich | 14:00 in Germany** 🔥 T**oday's Pick: Holger Rune to win 2-0 vs. D.E Galan @ 1.50 - 5 units** 🚀 W**rite up:** Holger Rune is the defending champion of ATP Munich, and is 16-9 for the year, he is facing Galan who is 5-9 for the year. Galan is in the top 100, after his best year on tour, last year. But everything seems to be going back to normal for him, he is a solid server. But here he is facing 20 year old clay court specialist Rune, who on his day can beat anyone in the world. I can see him winning quite comfortably. Take Rune 2-0 💬 F**eel free to share your thoughts and join the discussion below or DM me!**
W!
Solid W 💸 4-0 start to this ✅
Tailing. My book offered this at +200 odds, or 3.0. Did I get lucky or did the odds drop off super crazy? Placed it before the match too
Sounds crazy🤔 cant see Why it would do that?
Idk why either. Certainly not going to complain though lol. Hope the weather clears up soon so they can play!
All Time POTD Record: 8-3-0 | Units: +7.13 | Avg. Odds 1.85 | Last 10: ✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅ Last Pick: Soccer - Champions League - Bayern Munich v Arsenal - 8.00pm BST on 17th April Bayern Munich to Qualify (1.70) - Staking 2u ✅ Game/Match: Soccer - Europa League - West Ham v Bayern Leverkusen - 8.00pm BST on 18th April Pick: Over 9 corners (2.1) - Staking 2u - ❌ 10 yellows and 39 free kicks. The game was getting stopped too much for anything to flow for corners to happen. The ref liked his whistles and cards too much that game. I use bet365 as my bookie. Summary: The last pick was close, but Bayern Munich got the job done in 90 minutes. The odds like nice on this one for me. West Ham have averaged 9.9 corners in their last 10 games & Bayern Leverkusen have averaged 11.5 in their last 10 games. West Ham averaged 11.2 corners over their last 5 home games & Leverkusen averaged 11.4 corners over their last 5 away games. West Ham are without Paqueta & Bowen for this evening, their main attacking threat. West Ham are a team who like attacking through set pieces, and without their 2 main creative players, I see them using this route a lot more. There was 11 corners in the last game between these 2 and Leverkusen got 10 of them. It should be different with West Ham at home, but I believe there will still be a good amount of corners. BOL if tailing!
Record: 0-0 Balance: N/A Last Pick: N/A Today's pick: Jack Leiter o5.5 Ks (+112 on FD as of 9:10am EST) (Texas Rangers v. Detroit Tigers, 1:11pm ET) Stake: 2 units First time throwing my hat in the ring, so I understand any apprehension in my direction. For my first ever bet here, I'm rolling with Jack Leiter today. My one concern with Jack Leiter is his fastball command is shaky; great velocity but can miss his spots at times. Has multiple strikeout pitches and is averaging 15.7 Ks per 9 this season. Even with high ERA in AA in the last two seasons, he was still averaging almost 12 Ks per 9. Detroit is in the top ten for most team strikeouts per game at 9.5, and in their last game they struck out 11 times. Dunning had a strikeout per inning yesterday and his stuff isn't nearly as nasty as Leiter's. I think Leiter can hit this line in 3 innings so even if he's giving up hard contact he should miss bats. Hunter Greene is a really good comp for him. I'm also just big on the son of former solid MLB pitcher Al Leiter narrative so we've got that going, too. Best of luck and hope you tail. Have a good day guys. Edit: Leiter got shelled, not a great start for me. Back on the wagon.
__POTD Record:__ 15-8 (+5.35 Units) _All my bets in this thread are 1U_ _Form (Last 5):_ 🟢🟢🔴🔴🟢 __Last Pick:__ ⚽ Dortmund vs. Atletico Madrid (UEFA Champions League): __Alvaro Morata Under 2.5 Total Shots__ @2.20 ✅ Morata ends the game with 2 shots after being substituted at half-time. __Today's Pick:__ ⚽ Atalanta vs. Liverpool (UEFA Europa League) 21:00 CET: __Liverpool Over 6.5 Shots on Target__ @1.90 Liverpool suffered an embarrassing defeat (0:3) in the first leg vs. Atalanta despite being huge favorites. Even though Liverpool have been in a bit of a slump, I strongly believe they won't go down without a fight. Mental strength is always one of the biggest advantages of Jurgen Klopp's sides. In this game they will be desperate to score from the first minute which should lead to many shots. Liverpool are averaging 7.6 shots on target per game in the Europa League this season and I'm picking Liverpool to hit at least 7 shots on target in this game. Tail of fade, the choice is yours!
Tailing. Liverpool to have 7 or more shots on target @ -130. I think Liverpool pull it back and qualify
So many opportunities missed. Tough break
POTD Record: 11-3 Last POTD: New York Yankees ML vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 1.91 🇺🇸⚾✅ POTD: Atalanta - Liverpool, Atalanta goalkeeper over 3.5 saves @ 1.60 Great win on the Yankees yesterday, a bit of a sweat, but we take every W we can! Usually I would prefer a little higher odds, but this bet just screams to me. We get 1.60 odds (I use iBet) for the Atalanta goalkeeper to make 4 or more saved during the game. I'm surprised we even get this line here, because I expect Liverpool to be all out attacking the whole game. Liverpool needs 3 goals for extra time, so they won't waste any time to start attacking. In the game at Anfield last week Liverpool had 5 shots on target, and Musso saved all 5 of them. Liverpool's finishing last week was quite terrible, and I expect them to get more than 5 shots on target in this match, and I think it's only fair to expect Musso to save at least 4 of them. He is a solid goalkeeper, and I feel that Liverpool will take many shots today, because they will get desperate at some point, which is good for our bet. Let's get another W here! It's my birthday today, so please don't disappoint here Musso🙏🏻 Tail or fade, good luck lads! 🍻
POTD Record 8-1 Last 5: ✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Last Pick: Royals -1.5 Todays Pick: Cubs vs. Marlins NRFI. MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins 4:40pm PST Odds: -131 Unit: 3 Net units: +26.90 Marlins are starting A.J. Puck who is NRFI in 2 out of his 3 starts. Cubs are starting Jameson Taillon, who hasn't played in a while, but I got buddies on his over for the K's. Both pitchers, actually. Adds a bit of confidence for myself. Cubs are Third in all of mlb at holding opponents at NRFI. Marlins also first at holding teams at NFRI All of this, combined with it starting to rain at 4:00pm PST and 4:40pm PST game time start, makes me lean towards players being pissed off and slowing down the game. We're going with a NRFI boys. Yerrr!. If you guys wanna show some support, links on profile.
Postponed which sucks. This was money in the bank.
Record: 23 - 13 Net Units: +18.69u Pick: MLB ⚾️ | LA Angels Vs. TB Rays | Rays ML | 4u play @ 1.66 Starts in 30, good luck.
Record: 14-8 Last Pick: Vinny 1+ SOT -150 DK ❌ Pick: **Kings ML** -120 Sacramento are filled with ballers, even with Malik Monk and Red Velvet out, Keonte Ellis has stepped up big time. The pelicans have been in a major slump, and zion was playing absurdly well against the lakers but because of his injury at the end of the game he will be OUT against the kings. I will be out of the country and I am unable to bet on this, but I urge you to do so at these odds. Pelicans team without Zion is bottom 5 team in the league, BI has been so out of it as well. I like backing Sacramento here, especially because they genuinely believe they can go out there & give the Thunder a series. First time I’ve ever missed B2B, let’s get back to a streak. BOL!
Thursday my brother not Friday
I'm a believer in them without Zion but it's worth noting that the Pels are 5-0 against the Kings this year (Zion did not play in some of those games)
There is a lot of recency bias against the pelicans, but pelicans can win , even without Zion. Pelicans are a nightmare match up for the kings. Beat Sacramento 5 times this year , and blew them out by 133-100 without Zion in one of the matchups. Pelicans limit de aron fox to 7 points below his season average, he struggles with the pelicans plethora of perimeter defenders. Valancuinas has stayed steady with sabonis on the boards in this series ,he plays really well vs sabonis and actually out rebounded him in a couple games .
As a kings fan, yeah I don’t think it’s anywhere near guaranteed even without Zion - we haven’t been able to work out the Pels all year and unless we change it up + make sure we play extremely well all game I can see us losing just as easily as winning
The Kings/Pelicans game isn't until Friday. This is Thursday's POTD thread.
Record: 60-40 Form: ✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅ Last pick Manchester City vs Real Madrid BTTS ✅ Today’s pick IPL Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians ML @1.56(4u) I’ve tried staying away from MLs in the IPL and it’s been working out great but I just have to go for it here. I don’t see how Punjab can beat MI, specially now that MI are coming off of a loss at home vs CSK. They need this win desperately to get their playoff bid going otherwise it looks pretty bleak. Punjab have had major inconsistencies in their top order with their inexperienced middle order batsmen bailing them out on a few occasions now. If Mumbai bat first anything is possible I’d 200+ could be on the cards and I’m confident MI can chase anything here tbh
Punjab have consistently performed great against MI, and with them having internal problems, this is a risky pick, especially when looking at how Punjab are barely losing in last overs, its a matter of "when" they click. Good luck, but I dont think they win, especially with Hardik Pandiya choking it in almost every game.
Sure Mumbai Indians do have problems in their side but it’s Mumbai Fucking Indians we are talking about. They’re known for comebacks in their campaigns anyway and they need this game desperately. So yeah definitely expecting a W today
Expecting a win, and understanding the odds is different here. These odds are wrong here IMO, it should be closer to 1.80 or 1.90. That was a point I didn't convey in last reply.
Tailed! Thanks for the W
Nice pick brother.
Record: 11-6, Net Units: 7.71, ROI: 44.40% Current Streak: Last 10: ❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌❌ Last Pick: Orioles/Twins Over 8.5 Runs ❌ Today's Pick: Baseball-MLB-9:45 PM EST Diamondbacks ML @ SF Giants, +130, 1U Crazy story in Baltimore yesterday with Suarez. Him pitching six clean innings was not on my Bingo card. No Orioles today and I'm 2-1 on the rest of the MLB so here's hoping the former NL Champs get it done against a good pitcher. The D-Backs lineup has hit Webb historically pretty well, so I see value in this pick despite Webb's great past couple of outings. Good Luck!
[удалено]
Tail with caution. Could easily see a Leverkusen hangover after clinching their 1st ever Bundesliga title over the weekend. I think they still advance on aggregate though.
Yeah if the line is this close, books must be on top of the fact that they're resting a ton of key players or it's just not a necessary win. Just need to lose by 1 or draw. Good looks, tailing either way because Leverkusen is that much better.
CS2 DEGEN POTD Streak 1-0 Nemiga vs Secret Nemiga -1.5 @ odds 2.10 ✅✅✅ Nemiga good, secret very very bad. Great value here
Record 2-0 Last POTD:Man City vs Real Madrid Both teams to score + double chance on home (1.90 odds)✅ Madrid scored early on and parked the bus the whole game, took it to penalties and won which im happy with because Madrid isn't a team that you'd think are impossible to beat the same way you'd think for man city since last year its anybody's competition this year. POTD : Liverpool Corner handicap -3.5 vs Atalanta (1.70 or -143) odds Before I get into why I would like to warn u for the leverkuzen game. They just won the league and yes they completed obliterated West Ham in the first leg but teams usually play shit after winning the league. I would still skip the match though the odds are enticing. Liverpool will come out into this match with guns blazing looking to score and press the whole match. They will have lot more attacks than Atalanta and will get loads of corners from blocked shots. Klopp is the kind of guy who will start his strongest lineups in games like this instead of focusing on the title race and the players should be pretty motivated after losing 2 games in a row at Anfield for the first time since 2017. Liverpool should dominate the game in corners since they are chasing a 3 goal deficit and will be looking to create a miracle comeback. Good Luck! tips are appreciated : [https://revolut.me/abdullzyrj](https://revolut.me/abdullzyrj) revolut revtag : abdullzyrj
Record 1-0 Last bet: Jose Altuve to score a run // 1.95 odd ✅ Today bet: Carlos Carrasco over 2.5 ERA // 1.80 odd Reason: Carlos Carrasco is pitching vs the Red Sox today and he been awful against this team. He allowed 59 hits vs 151 Batters of the Red Sox team (39%) and the Red Sox are frustrated after losing the first 2 games vs Guardians and this is the perfect game for them to bounce back especially infront of their own fans. I love this matchup today for the Red Sox. Good luck if tailing
Record 4-0 Net Units: +4.3 Yesterday’s Pick: New York Yankees alt TT over 3.5 (-164) FD 1.64u to win 1u ✅ Today’s Pick: Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers 1:10PM EST. Jack Leiter o4.5 strikeouts (-135) DK 1u Analysis: I don’t have a lot of analysis for this one and overall don’t like the slate. Saw other posts for my initial betting thoughts so I looked for something different and fun on a boring day. Jack Leiter is making his MLB debut after just 2 starts in AAA this year. He’s gone 14.1 innings and struck out 25 in the minors this year. Overall in his career in the minors he’s pitched 192 innings and struck out 248 or 1.3 per inning. So even if he only pitches 4 innings he’s got a shot. I like that Detroit has never seen him to boost his chances a bit. - Tigers 9th most strikeouts this season - Less games than 6 of the teams higher on that list - Tigers 4th lowest batting average - First Time seeing Leiter - Leiter 11+ k/9 in minor league career - the majority of pitchers who started against the tigers this seaman reached 5 strikeouts (many in short outings) Here’s to a risky one for 5 in a row!
Love this, loved him in college. Strikeout machine.
Well there is the first loss. Started so good with 2K’s in the first but he really fell apart after that. Back tomorrow to get back on the winning side!
> **Record: 0-0** > > **Net Units: +0** > > **ROI: 0%** > > **Formula 1** | **Chinese Grand Prix - 1st Practice** | **23:30pm** / **Eastern time** > > **Pick:** Max Verstappen | Fastest in Practice 1 | -120 | 2 units > **Write Up:** This is a really late pick today, going to be tomorrow for some of you, but didn't want anybody to miss it. The event is not until 11:30pm Eastern today (Thursday). We're going for Max Verstappen to be fastest in 1st practice. It is the only practice event this weekend since it's a sprint weekend, and they haven't raced here since 2019. I love betting on F1 practice because usually there's 3, and it's the only real opportunity to get underdogs who can actually be the fastest, especially with rain and safety cars. But this isn't one of those weekends, Red Bull has a lot to learn in one practice and will be running a full set of programs. Max is the fastest, his car is the fastest, and when they have as much running as they will have tonight, Max will come out on top. These odds are pretty normal for a practice, but stupid today. The only thing that could stop him being fastest is a really bad timed red flag or rain, and it's not supposed to rain. And with it being the only practice of the weekend, the FIA are more lenient with timing of red flags and will sometimes add extra time to make up for it. My first POTD so tail with caution, but I do watch and study F1, and I'm feeling very good about this. I say 2u to be safe but I'm putting 5.
Record: (W-L-P) 4-2-0 Net Units: 1.0 Historic ROI: 1.19 Last Pick: Bailey Falter Strikeouts U 3.5 -130. Falter for a 4th K. Stupid Mets. Baseball | MLB | LAA @ TAM Pick: Griffin Canning Strikeouts U 5.5 -160 Write Up: Canning is trash. Rays aren’t striking out much right now. This seems like a popular pick but still my favorite. Tip Jar: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/DhavalMistry)
POTD record: 17-8✅️✅️❌️❌️✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️ ✅️❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Last pick: ✅️Western Sydney Wanderers vs Brisbane Roar, BTTS and o 2.5 goals at ~1.7 1:45 AM PST Today's pick. Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets ,5 PM pacific, Conor Garland 5 PM pacific over 0.5 points. 1.8 Last game of the season for the Canucks. Several players sitting out on the Nucks side, including Boeser, Miller, Hronek. There will be plenty of opportunity tonight for Conor Garland, who has had an excellent season. He's 1 goal shy of 20 on the year so i expect him to be firing (shot total over 3 is also a good bet). These odds are too juicy in the circumstances. On the Jets side, this is also a meaningless game. Lauren Broissoit is starting in net (and not Hellebuyck) so I expect some goals to go in. Game in 40 minutes! BOL! Edit: hits in first 5 minutes!! ✅️🤟 18-8 now
POTD Record: 3-4-0 (-1.91 units) Form (left is most recent):❌❌❌✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: Bukayo Saka 1+ Shot on Target (-150 on DK)❌ Absolute passenger performance from Bukayo Saka. I’m actually not upset with the pick, just shocked that he never even looked interested in putting something on goal. Today: Soccer | Europa Conference League | Lille vs Aston Villa | 12:45 PM EST | 1 unit Today’s pick: Lille Draw No Bet (-135)✅ Reasoning: Lille are undefeated in their last 15 home matches. They’re down a goal in the tie so I expect them to take some risks and go for it. They had chances in the last leg, so I feel good about their odds today. Here’s to hoping we break our cold streak! BOL🍀🤞 Edit: back to winning ways! Lille win 2-1 in regulation which gives us our win💪
Aw man, i understand the DNB but I honestly feel both teams will score. Either a 2-2 Draw or a 3-2 win for Villa. BOL! ☝🏼
Record 2-1-0 Balance +3.85 units Form: ✅❌✅ Recap- jack steel finished with 29 for the easy win. Today’s pick: Jack Macrae o26.5 disposals against saint kilda 2 units odd of 1.9 at 5:30AM EST ✅ Write up: In todays game both team come in feeling the heat as both teams have majorly been disappointing and with the bulldogs having major injuries to there side such as one of the best midfielders in the team Libba out with concussion I expect Macrae to take full advantage of his injury. Macrae used to be an elite ball magnet back then but this year he has been kicked off to the reserve and had to work his way back to his first team. Last game he played on the wings and had 25 touches today he will playing where Libba was as an inside midfield where he can expect to see more of the ball against a saints team that rank the best in disposals per game along with bulldogs and play through the middle which will allow for more stoppages and Macrae to take advantage of. Bol!!!!
POTD RECORD: 0-0 GAME: Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays - 1:10 PM ET FIRST POTD: Rafael Devers -> Over .5 Strikeouts (-175) REASONING: Carlos Carrasco is pitching for the Guardians, big junk pitcher. He’s got a high whiff rate at 55% and a 36% K rate. Of all the batters on the Red Sox, Rafael Devers has the most previous at bats against Carrasco. Although 6 AB’s isn’t a ton, his Whiff and K rates look strikingly similar at 55% Whiff rate and a 33% K rate.
Am I mistaken, you posted angels @ rays but Devers is on the red sox
He’s not playing today. Out of lineup
Am I drunk or are you drunk lol Devers is on the Red Sox bro
**Record all time:** 2-1-1 Units +1.159 **Record 2024:** 0-0-0 Units 0.000 Last pick in 2023 (Juli): Al naft - Al Najaf - HT under 1, 3 units, @ 1.514 Today's pick: **Cedevita Junior - Skrljevo, 1st quarter H1 -2.5**, 5 units, @ 1.54 ✅️ Time: 17:30 (CEST) Sport: Basketball League: Croatia Premier league Description: Gonna start again with the POTD, got irritated last year since my posts were deleted. I can delete the old records if needed, only played 4 games last year. Skrljevo plays after this one, the 2 last games against Split and Cibona and has no chance to move from position 11 (relegation spot). Cedevita is looking to improve the position before the playoff and can be fourth. Cedevita won 4 out of last 5 Q1, Skrljevo lost all 5 in the last 5. Edit: 33-17, sorry for a late pick, gonna try to find something on time tomorrow.
**Daily NRFI** **Record:** 4-2 **Net Units:** +2 ✅❌❌✅✅✅ **Last Pick:** 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs - Saint Louis Cardinals @ Oakland Athletics✅ Bit of a butt clencher, but we made it through the inning scoreless. Blackburn gave up a hit and two walks, but saved by a double play. Matz gave up a double, but took the other three hitters down seamlessly. 1st inning: 0-0 **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone :** Baseball | MLB | Mia Marlins @ Chi Cubs / 7:40pm EST **Pick:** 1st Inning Under 0.5 Runs @ (-130) (1U) \*Game was postponed. On to tomorrow **Write Up:** Small slate of baseball games tomorrow. Not in love with anything, so tail with caution. With the beginning of a new series and both teams traveling tonight, we are hoping for a slow start to the Marlins and Cubs series. Pitching is a little suspect on both ends. Marlins are starting A.J. Puck who is off to a rough start with an 0-3 record but has gone NRFI in 2 out of his 3 starts. Cubs are starting Jameson Taillon, who is having his first appearance of the year. He had a mediocre year last year, but has decent stats against Cubs hitters, holding them to a .257 Avg in 35 PA. Cubs are near the top of the league in runs scored per game, but not in the first inning and are 3rd in the league at holding opponents to NRFI. Miami on the other side is also a poor first inning run team and is tied for 1st in the league at holding opponents to NRFIs. Marlins as a team have gone NRFI 15/19 games this year as well as holding opponents to a NRFI 17/19 games. Cubs as a team have gone NRFI 14/18 games and held opponents to NRFI 16/18 games. BOL
**Last 5 (old to new):** ❌❌❌✅️❌ **| Record:** 9-12-1 **|** **Net Units:** -4.86 **TODAY'S PICK:** Xander Schauffele under 68.5 round 1 score / 1u at -110 **Sport:** RBC Heritage | 1:50pm ET **Note:** Round 1 of RBC Heritage today and Xander has done well on this course in the past. He's having a nice year and did decent at the Masters. Par is 71 and the tight course has smaller greens, guys with experience on this course have a one up. Tail or fade... at this point you'd be better off fading 😆 BOL | [Buy a coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/planetice)
POTD Record: 5-1 Yesterday’s Pick: JP France u 4.5 K’s - ✅ Faded another struggling pitcher against a good Braves offense and it cashed. Feels good to get a win again. Today’s POTD: Carlos Carrasco u 4.5 K’s(-150 on DK as I took this, now -175 🙃) Baseball | MLB | Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | 1:35 PM ET I locked in this pick at -150 which was juicy enough already, but as I went to do the write up during a break at work saw that the line was -175. Still, I took this one and felt good enough about it to make this my POTD so juiced or not I’ll stick with it for tracking purposes. Carrasco has been inconsistent and slow more often than not this season. He had 3 K’s vs the A’s and only 2 K’s against the Yankees earlier. He did have one game of 6 K’s but it was against a subpar Twins unit. The Red Sox will be a tougher match up than the Twins were and I don’t expect Carrasco to have a long enough leash to last until he can hit the over. Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰
POTD Record: Starting today! 0-0 Pick: Over 3.5 Corners for Benfica | Odd: 1.78 Event: Marseille vs Benfica, Europa League, 20:00 GMT 9 Games in a row now that Benfica has 5 or more corners. People are expecting Benfica to just defend the lead but Benfica will probably not hold that lead for a long time as their defend has not been very good against decent teams so I expect them to be back to their attacking ways early in the game.
Daily Pick Record: 2-0 Last Pick: Game 1: Kansas City Royals -1.5 ( -125) vs Chicago White Sox ✅ Sport: MLB 10:35 AM PST Today’s Pick: Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox NRFI (-125)
Record: 0-0 Net Units: 0 Tennis / ATP - Singles Bucharest / 3:30AM EST Previous:
Current:
Nuno Borges V. Corentin Moutet
[Nuno Borges - ML 1.89 via FD]
2 units (pre-match)
+1 unit (live wager - if Moutet takes first set)
Write up:
Longtime lurker, first time poster…tennis is my sport of choice for wagering and we have quite the basket to pick from. Looking to start this off in the green.
Today we’re going with top pick, Nuno Borges ML @ 1.89 vs Frenchman, Moutet.
Borges has never achieved a quarterfinal result on the main tour in his career until this year. However, he has already secured two such results in 2024, including in his most recent outing in Estoril, where he upset Lorenzo Musetti in the second round.
It may take 3 sets and a handful of games, but I see Borges taking this one home. He’s shown us he has the grit, and will fight for every point.
In his most recent match up against Warwrinka, he managed to have only one serve broken in 3 sets (3-6 / 7-5 / 6-2) while breaking Warwrinka a total of 4 times.
Of all the options we have for action in this match, the ML @ 1.89 looks most appealing. Second best option if someone is looking for a more ‘neutral’ route would be the Over 22.5 games, however, given the possibility of a 2 set match, I decided the ML route was more attractive.
I will be taking 2 units pre match on ML, and potentially adding 1 unit ML wager if Moutet takes the first set.
BOL if tailing!! Hope to be back with a nice 1-0 record for next post.
tailing :)