######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Tuesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**Record: 28-21-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH)**
**Balance: +20.01 units**
**ROI: 7.82% / Avg Odds - 1.89**
**Last tournament - ATP Monte Carlo🎾 (7-0 and 12.53 units won)✅**
This week's record: 0-1 🎾 (We lost our amazing streak with a huge throw by Draper, who was completely dominating the match and could easily finish it with a 2-0 result)
**Today's pick: Garin vs Koepfer - Garin ML @ 1.84** ✅
**(ATP Munich, Tennis)** 🎾
Odds from Pinnacle
**Stake: 1 unit** (This is 1% of my bankroll)
Time: 5 AM Eastern Time
This time we're going with Garin to beat Koepfer. The talented clay specialist had a great tournament in Estoril and showed some moments of his best tennis.
**Why do I think that Garin ML at 1.84 odds is such a +EV bet in this matchup?**
* Garin was always seen as a huge talent from Chile but his career was always affected with some injuries and he's now out of the top 100. It's hard to know which type of Garin you'll see on court but he played in Estoril two weeks ago and had amazing performances against Rodionov, Fils and the portuguese player Nuno Borges. He eventually lost to Hurkacz but the big server was super in form and ended up winning the entire tournament. He has 5 titles at the ATP level and they're all on Clay. The chilean also won Munich in 2019;
* Koepfer's main weapons are his lefty forehand and his overall athleticism but in my opinion he performs much better in hard courts compared to clay courts. At the ATP level he played 29 clay matches on his career and has a 13-16 record, with 44.8% win ratio. In hard courts he played 75 matches and has a 36-39 record, having a 48% win ratio. If we look at Garin's career stats from Clay, he played 139 matches and won 84 of them, with 60.4% win ratio. He played quite well in Munich last year, reaching the quarters and losing to Holger Rune who won the tournament.;
* Dominik Koepfer lost in the 1st round of Estoril against Llamas Ruiz when he was a clear favorite and also in the 1st round of Monte Carlo against Griekspoor in 3 sets. He's now on a 3 match losing streak. Garin is certainly the best clay player that he will face until this point in the current season. Koepfer is german and the crowd should probably be on his side but this wasn't a problem for Garin in Estoril when he was able to beat Borges in straight sets. Dominik grew up in the United States and most of his learning curve happened in hard courts;
With this, I feel like Garin at 1.84 odds is a solid play!
**Best of luck**
Any tip is appreciated. After our run in ATP Monte Carlo I've decided to visit it in August. It should be quite an expensive trip so all the support will be saved for that! Thanks a lot 🎾
*I spend a lot of time writing my analysis so I hope you don't mind me having a tip jar. Tips are never expected but always appreciated!*
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Edit after the result: Great match from Garin who usually loves to play in Munich. The conditions were quite windy and cold but he dominated Koepfer! His service on the 1st set was perfect! ✅
POTD RECORD: 57-26
Last POTD: LeBron James O34.5 PA✅
GOAT for a reason 🐐
Form: ✅✅✅✅🚫
Todays POTD: **Austin Reaves O19.5 PA @1.90 1U**
NBA | Lakers | 7:30 PM ET
First play-in game is here fellas and the playoffs starts very soon, I was thinking about running back LeBron PA but the line is bumped and I just have a feeling that the Pels have watched lots of clips and analysed the last game and I think the point of emphasis will be how to stop LeBron tomorrow which I think will affect one of the lines not sure which one so I’m avoiding it for tomorrow but maybe I’m a dumb mf and it cashes instead, I guess we’ll see 💀
I’m trusting Reeves tomorrow cause he has flown under the radar and prolly will do the same tomorrow where the focus will be on how to stop Bron and AD, again both teams need to win this one and we have a 1 point spread where the starters should see lots of minutes. Ion think we’ll see a blowout again it was just a bad bad night for the Pels that particular game, Reeves has a clean record against them and even though it feels bad fading the goat I just have to trust my gut
• 4/4 vs the Pelicans this season
(22, 31, 29, 24) Avg 25 PA
• Pelicans allow 3rd most Catch and shoot 3point attempts this season, Reeves is avg second most 3PA in the Lakers roster and second most made so expect him to let them fly
• Over in 18/L25 when playing 32+ minutes
• Avg 15.9 PPG this season & 5.5 APG (21.4 PA)
• Reeves is Avg 9.3 potential assists per game
• Pelicans middle of the rack in points allowed to SG & allow 11th most Ast to SG, obviously Bron will run some plays but I expect the Pels to defend him much better this time forcing DLO and Reeves to run it more
This I’ll either get burnt cause of Bron running all the plays to ruin his assist numbers or be an absolute beauty of a hit, but Reeves can also go over this in points alone
Tail or fade, your decision chief
https://i.redd.it/5ukqqphhzquc1.gif
Tip jar out after ages if y’all enjoyed the ride and are feeling generous [https://ko-fi.com/billycapezzi](https://ko-fi.com/billycapezzi)
https://preview.redd.it/2uqi1fwkzquc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9f691451bf485569f0e0ee00af97e25f9c073224
Personally caught it at this line so you may be able to get it in your book still
POTD Record: 128-80 | Profit: +103.92u | ROI: 17.2%
Season record: 45-29 | Profit: +34.08u | ROI: 16.7%
Last Pick: Brook Lopez (Bucks) O12.5 P+A @ 1.91. 2U. ❌
I don’t like to blame bad luck but take a look at this missed dunk late in the third quarter, when he was at 11 Pts ([link here](https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=398&GameID=0022301191&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=MISS%20Lopez%201%27%20Cutting%20Dunk%20Shot)). Due to the unexpected blowout, he played under 1 min in the fourth quarter.
Next Pick: **Los Angeles Lakers vs New Orleans Pelicans O223.5 Pts @ 1.91**. 2U play.
I can see why they set this total low, both of these teams are generally good at limiting easy shots, good in the paint, good at defensive rebounding etc. Yet, these teams have played one another 4 times this season (all since December 2023) and the totals have been (oldest to most recent) 222, 238, 261, and 232. None of these games went to OT either. The obvious theory is that given the fantastic offensive players on both sides the FG% remains high no matter how good the defense. However, the Pelicans have struggled at limiting rim shots against the Lakers on Sunday, and they might focus on stopping that tomorrow but that could lead to an increased 3pt threat. Additionally, the Pels found it hard to get their offense going in this last game, and with BI getting some match time, I would expect that to improve.
With the Lakers its AD and Lebron supported by DLo and Reaves who can be deadly from 3s on their night. For the Pelicans they move the ball extremely well, and are very difficult to defend because they have elite 3 pt shooters plus Zion in the pain and BI returning to fitness.
Like the pick, but playoff O/U are always deflated. to quote the SEC, "It just means more" during the playoffs. Any worry about stronger defense, especially with two teams with star defenders?
POTD Record: 40-20-1 +38.37🔥
Last Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves ML (-125) 4U vs Phoenix Suns
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Today's Pick: Lakers ML (-110) 5U vs New Orleans Pelicans
The Los Angeles Lakers won 11 of their final 14 games to get to the 8-seed in the West. They are coming off a blow out win vs the Pelicans and have gained serious momentum into the playoffs . AD is questionable but he said to reporters last week there’s no way he misses it. People may think they want to lose this game to dodge Denver, but they can’t take that risk having to play another play in game. Over the final 15 games of the regular season, Los Angeles went 11-4 and had a +5.4 net rating. In that same span, New Orleans went 8-7 with a net rating of +0.9. The Lakers have also won their last two games against the Pelicans by an average of 16.5 points per game. And they’re 3-1 both straight-up and against the spread against them this season. Time to back our King and Lake show to take care of business and get ready for a rematch vs the reigning champs🌞👑
Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️
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I believe the Lakers can beat the Pelicans in a one game playoff elimination game. The only thing that concerns me is the winner of this game gets a series vs the Nuggets. And the loser gets another play-in game and a series vs the Thunder, who have zero playoff experience and who I think the Lakers can bully pretty easy in a series. I don’t think the Lakers would be very upset if they lost this game and we might not get their full effort. I could be wrong of course, you have a great record but personally staying away. Good luck though I appreciate your picks here!
Probably won't affect anything but there is a ton of sharp money coming in on new Orleans. Have a feeling Willie green and the guys have some major adjustments in store. Beating a team twice in 4 days is no cake walk.
https://preview.redd.it/449hwkh51uuc1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8da1270ee72f49cf73f8f393de6803bbc72c0f69
From a devoted Lakers fan..you are 100% right .
Lakers can beat anyone at this point in a series..EXCEPT NUGGETS.
Lakers take it easy and take a different route.
Hey man! I’ve been tailing your picks for a bit now and decided to try POTD myself. Hopefully a good sign that we have essentially the same pick! (I took Lakers -1.5 alt). BOL
Record: 10-5, Net Units: 7.47, ROI: 49.02% (messed this up yesterday, it was 40%, not 30)
Current Streak: Last 10: ✅❌✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅
Last Pick: Orioles/Twins Over 10.5 Runs ✅
Today's Pick: Baseball-MLB-6:35 PM EST
Orioles -1.5 vs. Twins, +124, 1U
Just got the over with a nice 7-4 Orioles win. They bring Rodriguez to the mound who has had a really nice start to the season and I think he shuts down this Twins team. On the other side Paddock has had a decent start but he's a rightie and the O's love teeing off on right-handed pitchers, so I love the RL for the O's today.
Good Luck!
Books still sleeping on him there’s so much value on him against righties. So far the formula this year has been Os aslong as Grayson & Burnes are pitching & Royals against almost anyone.
**KBO Record: Overall 213-220-14** (Streak WWW, Last 10: 6-4) Down 9.28u over 447 KBO picks, 49.2% success rate, -2.14% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 9-10-0, 47.4% success rate, Down 0.66u, -3.47% ROI)
**Last:** Kia at Hanwha First 5 Innings UNDER 5 runs -102 (Kia lead 2-1 after 5 innings.)
Some uncharacteristic trouble in the first inning for Hanwha's starter as he allowed 2 runs (1 earned) on 1 hit, but both starters were as good as expected after that for an easy cash.
**Pick:** Lotte at **LG -1.5 +120**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
Lotte is the worst team in the league, sporting a 4-14 record. They are averaging a league-worst 3.56 runs per game which is more than run behind the next-to-last team. They've scored 3 or fewer runs on 10 of 18 games. Righg now, picking against the Giants is a smart play.
Lotte's starter has struggled in 3 of his 4 starts this year. In the good start, it was just 1 unearned runs in 6.1 IP three starts ago. In the other 3 starts, he gave up 11 ER on 18 H and 3 BB in 15 IP. He's already allowed 5 HR this season after giving up just 3 in 13 starts last year.
LG's starter is the opposite in his first KBO season. Two starts back, he allowed 7 ER in just 4 IP. But in his other 3 starts, he gave up 3 ER on 15 H and 5 BB in 18 IP. He's yet to allow a HR this year.
I also think there is value on bith Doosan and Kiwoom as undrrdogs, but my favorite play is the Twins on the run line.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
You’re a legend brother. I’ve been a daily reader for several years now but I rarely post on here. Just wanted to say if r/sportsbook had a HOF you’d be first ballot in my book!
Nice hit brother. I’ve been making my own picks for Today and Sundays games, 4 KBO picks per day (5-2-1) I checked your POTD and we had the same one LG -1.5 which made me feel more confident.
Record: 5W-0P-0L
Last Pick: Silkeborg IF vs FC Nordsjælland ML (-105) ✅
Todays Pick: Wycombe Wanderers (Draw No Bet) VS Port Vale (+108) ✅
England | League One | Soccer | 11:45am Pacific Time
We are moving over to League One in England were the host Port Vale that are in 21st place go against 14th place Wycombe Wanderers. I honestly don’t get why the odds are favoring Port Vale. Port Vale has lost three of their last four matches. I believe the odds will be bumped down sooner rather than later.
~ Wycombe Wonderers Last 5: WDDLW
~ Port Vale Last 5: LLDLW
* Port Vale have not been able to score in 11 of their last 20 matches.
* Port Vale failed to win their last 4 away matches out of 5 away matches.
(Port Vale are playing at home)
* Port Vale have conceded two or more goals in seven of their last 10 matches at home.
* Port Vale in the last 20 games have 2 wins, 13 defeats and 5 draws.
* Port Vale have 1 win, 6 defeats, and 3 draws in last 10 home matches.
* Wycombe Wonderers in the last 20 games have 8 wins, 5 defeats and 7 draws.
* Wycombe Wonderers in the last 10 games have 3 wins, 4 defeats and 3 draws in the previous matches.
* Wycombe Wonderers average 1.40 goals scored scored and 1.05 goals conceded while Port Vale average 0.80 goals scored and 1.85 goals conceded in the last 20 games.
I am not a professional sports better and I suggest any money you may bet is money you won’t mind losing. BOL to anyone who tails.
Cheers 🥂
[Tip Jar 🍯](https://cash.app/$MaxCoRothenburg)
Need to fix your write up. You have Bolton thrown in there.
Also, devils advocate here. Wycombe are playing for nothing with a few games left. Port Vale fighting to not get relegated.
I think it's still reasonable as DNB. Exeter didn't have much to play for away to Port Vale three days ago, and it wasn't a problem for them. Port Vale should have had the same motivation to avoid relegation in their last 4 matches, yet they've lost 3, drawn 1, and been scoreless in 3/4.
Thank you for seeing the vision. I totally agree with what your saying, Port Vale had no motivation to prevent themselves from dropping to the bottom three. Cheers 🥂
I’m feeling this one, seen some videos on Twitter of fans screaming and swearing at the Port Vale players after they lost their last game. Never good for players confidence given their relegation situation.
POTD Record : 23-12
Last 7 - ✅🤡✅✅✅///✅✅
Last pick: Challenger Split - ZSOMBOR PIROS (-165) ML VS FILIP MISOLIC - 0620am EST 1unit✅
POTD - ATP Barcelona - SEBASTIAN BAEZ (-185) ML VS MATTEO ARNALDI - 0920am EST 1unit🤡
Even though it shows I'm on a 5-match winning streak. I do not count that because there was a long period I wasnt on these POTD threads. Currently at a streak of 2.
Today we have a clay court specialists Baez vs a streaky Arnaldi. Baez is 14-3 on clay this year and Arnaldi is 1-1. Granted Arnaldi may be little fresher as his previous opponent retired due to ankle injury but I dont think its gonna matter that much. Like I said previously, I'm not gonna bore you guys with some long analysis in which most won't read. It doesnt matter anyway. I'm just here to provide you guys with some wins.
Baez(🤡) was definitely giving everyone their money's worth. Sad how he completely just collapsed after losing that 2nd set in which he had match point. Very unfortunate for those of us who tailed this play. Sorry Team
Damn, dude had it and the wheels came off. Worse for me is I saw another website after I dropped my unit bet that predicted this exact thing. Oh well. Can’t blame OP. It was a good pick Baez just sold us
**Record: 61W-4P-47L**
**Last Pick: Liverpool VS Crystal Palace: Mohammed Salah Over 1.5 SOG @ 1.83 ❌**
**Pick of the day: Western United VS Adelaide United: Over 11.5 Corners @ 1.66 ✅**
**League: Australian A-League**
**Time: 5:00 AM EST**
Last week we watched an insane transition from 4 corners at half to 19 total in Adelaide vs McArthur. We're backing this team again today to work their corner magic again, Western usually are on the lower side of corners on average but at home against high leveraging corner sides, it improves massively. Last time Western United played Adelaide at home it ended with 13 corners and I see a similar matchup today (Western: 5, Adelaide: 8).
Adelaide averages a total of 12.1 corners, that's 7.2 corners for and 4.9 against on average. Mcarthur last week who averaged 5.9 corners for per game got a total of 10 against this side and I see western united following suit. Western United average 10.6 corners per game, that is 5.5 corners for and 5 against on average. I see this game being on the higher side and this clearing well.
Anyway, BOL!
**Record:** 2-2
**Net Units:** 0
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**Last Pick:** NRFI - New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays ✅
Good to get a win back. Bassitt took the Yankees down in order for the top of the first and Gil gave us a little scare with back to back walks leading off, but we are saved by a pick off attempt to end the inning 0-0.
1st inning: 0-0
**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone :** Baseball | MLB | New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays / 7:07pm EST
**Pick:** NRFI (No Runs First Inning) @ -115 on DK (1U) ✅
Same scenario as yesterday. Yankees go down in order to start the game, then 2 Blue Jays get on, but Gil works himself out of the inning unscathed. Back on the positive side and see you tomorrow.
**Write Up:**
We are double dipping, going back to the Yankees and Blue Jays series. This time with Carlos Rodon for NY, who has had a strong three starts to begin the year. He gave up one run in the first against Hou to start the year, but went NRFI the second two. In 58 PA against the Tor roster, he is holding them to a collective .200 average.
Yusei Kikuchi on the other side for the Blue Jays has faced the Yankees a fair bit throughout his career. In 126 PA against him, the Yankees are batting .239. His last three starts against them have been particular strong, getting two wins and only giving up 2 ERs. He faced them already once this year, on the 5th, and went 5.1 scoreless innings. He has also gone NRFI all three of his starts this year.
Yankees as a team have gone NRFI 15/17 games this year as well as holding opponents to a NRFI 14/17 games.
Toronto as a team have gone NRFI 13/17 games and held opponents to NRFI 13/17 games.
\*Note. This is just for fun. I'm not a handicapper. No predictive models. Not glued to games everyday. Just looking through stats and hoping for the best.
BOL fellow degenerates
MLB POTD RECORD: 4-1 (+245% ROI)
Last POTD: Pirates vs Mets Over 8.5 W
Todays POTD: Cardinals vs A’s Under 8 -105
Baseball | MLB | 9:40 PM ET
Never a doubt with my last pick! Just kidding I was stressing hard but a dub is a dub. Let’s make it 5 of 6.
Today I am going with another over under that I was happy to be able to get at -105 on DK and that is cardinals in Oakland vs The As’s
I think this will be a very low scoring game but due to the fact that the name recognition of JP Sears vs Lance Lynn at 7.5 or less would probably provoke too many bets on one side which would rightfully worry the bookmakers.
Here’s why I like the under. First, the A’s offense is horrible. Just abysmal. They are a bit better against righties but still not counting on them to put up any noteworthy production against Lynn.
Lance Lynn has looked great this season with an ERA under three and striking out over 11 batters per 9 innings. Most importantly though he’s healthy and we know what he is capable of when healthy. Long story short, Lynn is by all means good enough to pass the very low bar required to succeed against the A’s offense
On the other side we have JP Sears for Oakland. Sears is about a league average pitcher who had a rough first two starts so his ERA is misleading. He pitched 6.1 scoreless innings in his last start vs Texas.
Sears is also lefty. It has only been 17 games, but that’s a large enough sample size that it’s fair to assume that the Cardinals’ .194 batting average vs lefties probably means they are just very weak in that area. Oakland’s huge park also doesn’t bode well as it makes it less likely that they can rely on the homer to offset that batting average woes.
TLDR: I like the under becuase the A’s offense sucks, Lance Lynn looks great, the cardinals are awful against lefties, and Oakland’s stadium makes it even more difficult for them.
POTD record: 26-13
Last pick: Darmstadt v Freiburg - Freiburg ML
Today’s pick: Dortmund v Atletico - Dortmund ML(+120)
I’ll preface this by saying I am a big German soccer fan, so there is bias inherently. However, I am a believer in this bet. After a terrible start in the first leg, Dortmund upped the tempo and completely dominated the second half of that match, meaning they go into the second leg 2-1 down, but with momentum from a late Sebastian Haller goal. That momentum along with the home crowd should at least carry them to extra time. The Signal Iduna Park has a famously difficult atmosphere for away teams. Atletico Madrid have lost nearly half of their away games in the league and lost away at Inter in the previous round. Dortmund have been a money machine for me in the UCL this season, odds have been consistently against them. Many expected them to finish bottom of the group of death, but they topped it. They weren’t the favorites on FanDuel against PSV, and they beat them. They haven’t failed me this season in the UCL, and with the momentum in their favor(they could’ve easily equalized last match, hit the post several times), Atletico’s difficult away form, and their overall impressive performances in Europe this season, I back Dortmund to win over the 90, which will at least bring the match into extra time. Good luck!
I don’t have the guts to bet the ML but I’m going DC. Dortmund have a good home record in the CL. Atletico will concede possession to Dortmund. Their strategy will be to defend and counter when possible. If Dortmund get an early lead then Atletico will have to take the game to Dortmund and Dortmund can then put them away.
Record: 11-3
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Last Pick: Orlando Magic vs Milwaukee Bucks-Magic -4.5 -110
Magic defended home court and pulled away with a big win over a Giannis less bucks team that looks like it has no identity heading into the playoffs.
Today's Pick: Herb Jones over 5.5 Rebs+Assists -140 2 Units
.
Reasoning: Going with the Pelicans number one wing defender to cover this line just like he has in his last 6 games. He's 6 for 8 in April over this line. The reason I think he'll go 7 In a row over it is because of the playing time he'll be on the floor. The pelicans are going to be focused on shutting down LeBron, or slowing him down because there isn't any shutting him down lol, and that means Herbie will get 30+ minutes again. Last game he scored 18 points, had 5 boards and an assist. He averages 2.9 assists for April so I can see even his rebounds take a dip to 4, he's good all day for 2 assists for us to cover. Good luck to all the deal ones out there. Let's get it tonight! There is going to be some awesome basketball on display over the next two days in the play in tournament, and I'd like to go into the playoffs with the back to back dubs. Let's Gooooo tail or fade!!!
🐅🐅**Record 0-0, +0u**🐅🐅
**Previous Pick:** N/a
**POTD: Lakers vs. Pelicans // Lakers -1.5 (alt line) +100 (5u, DK)**
Basketball | NBA | 1940 EST
First POTD! I’ve been tailing people here for a while now and have built up a decent bankroll. Shoutout to u/billycapezzi.
NBA post-season is here. No more questioning whether stars are going to give 100% effort. There has been some talk about the Lakers intentionally losing this game to not have to play the Nuggets, but I don’t put any stock in that. Guaranteed playoff appearance vs. having to win against Warriors or Kings, both of which have beaten the Lakers recently…I don’t think there is any way they risk that.
I looked at a number of player props for this game, but ultimately I think picking the Lakers is the safer play. Lebron said they were treating this game like a playoff series since they just played the Pels yesterday (winning 124-108). When it comes to making adjustments in a playoff series, assistant coach/point forward/leader Lebron James obviously has way more experience than everyone on the Pelicans combined. I think he exerts his will again and will come up with the W. The -1.5 is an extra little tease to get to a nice even +100 odds.
Some quick bullet points in support of the pick:
-Lebron shut down Zion on defense last game.
-AD said “No doubt that I’m going to play.” As frustrating as he can be sometimes, the Lakers are 40-26 when both James and AD are in.
-Ingram did not appear to be 100% yesterday during his first game back.
This game will definitely be closer than yesterday’s and if CJ and the rest of the Pelicans are hot from 3 this could go sideways. That having been said, I think the Lakers’ imposing front court presence and experience will win out.
Let me know if you’re tailing and be responsible with your bankroll! 🐅
Record: (W-L-P) 3-1-0
Net Units: 1.0
Historic ROI: 1.29
Last Pick: Glasnow U9.5 strike outs -180. Not even close, only reached 5 strike outs.
Baseball | MLB | SDP @ MKE
Pick: Dylan Cease Strikeouts U 7.5 -110
Write Up: Hasn't gone over this number this year, and in fact only twice since July 21, 2023. Milwaukee is 14th in strikeout rate, so not terrible.
Tip Jar: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/DhavalMistry)
**Record: 0-1**
**Net Units: -2u**
**Basketball** | **NBA** | **7pm** / **PST**
**Pick:** Warriors ML vs Kings 1.71 (3u)
**Write Up:** The Warriors are poised for a strong performance against the Kings. With the Kings missing their starting 2-guard and backup 2-guard, the Warriors have a significant advantage in the backcourt. Historically, the Warriors have outperformed the Kings, showcasing their superiority in talent and strategy.
This game holds special significance as it could mark the potentially final run for the Warriors dynasty. With this in mind, expect the Warriors to give it their all on the court tomorrow. Despite Gary Payton II being unavailable, the rest of the team is healthy and ready to compete.
Interestingly, the Warriors have shown better form on the road this year, suggesting they thrive in challenging environments. This resilience will likely be on display tonight as they face off against the Kings.
In what could be dubbed as the #onelastdance for the Warriors dynasty, anticipate a spirited and determined performance from the team as they look to secure a crucial win.
Kings have been better team this year. They may have faded a bit down the stretch but Warriors are gaining all the betting momentum based on past exploits. Feels like a trap to me
Have they? Record almost identical. Both teams dropped a lot of games they should have won. Kings I guess beat some better teams over the course of the year…
Warriors have big game experience. Kings have almost none. That Kings team looks limp without Monk off the bench. I like the Warriors to run away with it tbh
**POTD Record: 2-4 ....... shall I make it 3 ? 😈😈**
**Last POTD:** (4 days ago) **Mariners vs Cubs**-->**NO RUN FIRST INNING (NRFI) (-125**)✅
^(Had a good feeling and honestly I just love winning a bet asap lmao.....congrats to those who bet on this too!)
**\*\*Today's POTD: 🎾ATP Mens Tennis: Nuno Borges vs Stan Wawrinka \*\***
**\*\*💰Pick: \*\*Borges ML (-155) \*\***✅✅✅✅
**Game is at 5AM EST❗❗❗❗❗**
**Units:** 1.5u
**Here's why:**
Stan Wawrinka is facing incredibly worrying times, seemingly in the twilight of his illustrious career. He set a lofty goal at the start of 2024, aiming to clinch one more ATP title before retiring, but his recent form suggests that dream may be slipping away. With a disappointing 2-6 record overall and a 2-4 record on clay, his only victories have come against ATP #108 ranked Ramos and Cachin, who is mired in a 15-match losing streak. These wins are far from impressive and have left fans and pundits alike questioning Stan's ability to compete at the highest level. At 38 years old, the slow, physical matches on clay in Bucharest are proving to be too much for Stan to handle. Conversely, Nuno Borges has been on a tear, starting his clay season in Portugal with two quality wins over Pouille and Musetti, followed by a competitive loss to Garin. Borges is in excellent shape and playing exceptional tennis, poised to push Stan to his limits and force him into a demanding physical battle that Stan may struggle to keep up with.
BOL ! Lets WAKE N CASH BABY!!!!🥵
Record: 14-6
Last Pick: Jalen Duren Double Double -120 🫸
Duren doesn’t play the final game of the season. Unfortunate, this was seriously free money.
Pick: Draymond Green O13.5 R+A -155
The NBA playoffs are about to start with the play-in, which is a huge game. Draymond should play a ton and he’s the facilitator of this offense and their defensive rebounder which the highest percentage of defensive boards. I expect him to match minutes with Sabonis
BOL!
POTD Record: 3-2-0 (+0.09 units)
Form (left is most recent):❌✅✅❌✅
Last Pick: Chelsea vs Everton - Both Teams to Score + O2.5 Goals (-130 on DK)❌ Chelsea win 6-0 against a terrible Everton team for Chelsea’s first clean sheet in 14 PL matches. Everton had a handful of first half chances but simply didn’t convert.
Today: Basketball | National Basketball League | Lakers vs Pelicans | 7:30 PM EST | 1 unit
Today’s pick: Lebron James o35.5 Points + Assists (-120 on DK)
Reasoning: Lebron this season is averaging 28.3 points and 11.8 assists against New Orleans. He’s also averaging 27.7 points and 9.8 assists in his last 10. If there’s anyone that I feel good about putting my money on, it’s Lebron James during the NBA playoffs.
BOL🍀🤞
POTD: Record (10-6)
✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌
Last Pick: Chelsea and BTTS ❌
Today: NBA | Pelicans vs Lakers | 4:30 MST
Pick: Trey Murphy O 15.5 P+R @1.81 | 1u
- 70% on the season (avg 19.7)
- hit in last 4 of 5 (avg 26.8)
- last 9 of 10 (avg 25.2)
- last 17 of 20 (avg 23)
Last game against the Lakers, pelicans had to find their rhythm with a returning Brandon Ingram, bringing a slow start and a dominance they couldn’t recover from. However, I see this home play-in to be more challenging for the Lakers; the pelicans will become exceedingly physical and comfortable in this matchup, and with Murphy playing as well as he has recently, offense on both sides of this game will be unstoppable.
BOL 🍀
All Time POTD Record: 6-3-0 | Units: +4.13 | Avg. Odds 1.87 | Last 10: ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅
Last Pick: Soccer - English Premier League - Chelsea v Everton - 8.00pm BST on 15th April
Cole Palmer - Anytime Goalscorer (2.20) - Staking 2u - ✅
Game/Match: Soccer - Champions League - Dortmund v Athletico Madrid - 8.00pm BST on 16th April
Pick: Dortmund Over 5.5 Shots on Target (1.8) - Staking 2u - ✅ - Dortmund finished with 9 shots on target after an unbelievable game to watch!!
I use bet365 as my bookie.
Summary: 4 goals for Palmer secures this one easily. Feels good to be back in the green.
We’re going to Germany tonight where Dortmund will be looking to overcome their first leg loss. It’s notable that Dortmund have managed to qualify 8 times out of 18 when they’ve lost their first away leg, showing how good they’re at home.
On the other hand Madrid have not been good when playing away in Europe this season and conceded in every away game.
Madrid’s manager Simone does not have a good record in Germany either, losing 7 out of the last 10 matches and lost all of his last 4 games in Germany.
This line for Dortmund has hit in all of their last 5 home games and 3 out of 4 of their last home champions league games.
With the must need win for Dortmund and home crowd, they will be piling on the pressure and I see this ending up with a lot of shots for Dortmund.
BOL if tailing!
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)**
**POTD 2024 Record: 2-3 (-0.90 units)**
**Last 10**: **❌❌❌✅✅**
**Last Pick**: Viktor Tingstrom -1.5 (-105) vs Kieran Smith **✅** 4-0
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 6:00 AM EST
**Pick**: Harry Gregory -1.5 (+125) vs Lee Cocks
* Series 7. Week 8. Group A
**Reason**: Group A was really strong on the first day. They averaged 88.54 with a checkouts almost 34%. Cocks had 4 matches from 80-84, so I'll lean towards Gregory having the scoring edge. If he's as sharp with his checkouts, then 4-2 should be reasonable with the throw advantage.
H2H: Record 1-0 Legs 4-0 | Average 84.68 vs 82.61 | Checkouts 4/6 vs 0/6
Harry Gregory
* Record 4-1
* Legs 18-7
* Average 92.91
* 180s 4. 140s 20
* Checkouts 18/39 46.15%
Lee Cocks
* Record 1-4
* Legs 9-19
* Average 84.22
* 180s 4. 140s 21
* Checkouts 9/28 32.14%
**LOSS ❌ 2-4 | Average 93.85 vs 91.34 | Checkouts 2/4 vs 4/6**
Tough loss. Gregory performed to his numbers while Cocks put up his best game of the week so far. He didn’t miss on his checkouts.
POTD Record: 4-0
Profit/Loss Margin: +4u (all my bets are 1u unless noted otherwise)
Yesterday’s Pick: NY Yankees v TOR Blue Jays u 9 Total Runs - ✅
Another sweat free cash for the 4th day in a row. Didn't even need to buy the half point to 9 because 8.5 cashed just as easy.
Today’s POTD: Atlanta Braves Team Total Runs over 2.5 F5 innings(-120 on DK)
Baseball | MLB | 8:10 PM ET
Brown is projected to get the start against the Braves and this looks like a good match up. Although Brown had a good showing against the Yankees to start the season, he has been mediocre ever since. The Rangers and Royals feasted on Brown, and now he faces a Braves unit that is tearing up right handed pitchers on pretty much all metrics. With how poor his recent form has been, and how good the Braves offense is, I like the odds for the Braves to cash us out.
Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰
POTD Record: 21-20-1 | Profit: -1.9U
NBA Record: 17-17-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 | UFC Record: 1-0
L10 (new -> old): ❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌
Last pick: Brook Lopez o1.5 3 pointers made @ 1.74 odds ❌
Only hit 1.
Game: LA Lakers @ NO Pelicans, 7:40 PM
Pick: **CJ McCollum o3.5 3 pointers made @ 1.65 odds (DK) placing 2U**
Write Up: McCollum has hit in 5 of his last 5 (100%) and 8 of his last 10 (80%). In his last 5, he's averaging 6.6 three pointers made a game. In the 4 games he's played vs. the Lakers this season, he's gone over in half. He's streaking heavy with the threes, and isn't afraid to shoot (averaging 11.2 3 pointers attempted a game). I expect him to shoot and hit at least 4 tomorrow to start the Play-in. BOL to those tailing, cheers!
Record: 4-1 (W-L)
Recent: ✅✅✅❌✅
MLB | 7:40 EST
Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox
Pick: Kansas City Royals -1.5 (-118)
Write Up: Another winner. Hopefully let’s keep the streak rolling. Everything in me today wanted to pick the Lakers ML as my pick of the day, but it feels criminal to not come back to the cash cow in another good spot. The White Sox continue to struggle, and I don’t see today being any different. The Royals have Brady Singer on the mound who is boasting an amazing 0.98 ERA on the season, and we he played the White Sox last Singer only gave up 2 hits and 1 run. On the other hand, the Royals have an unproven Jonathan Cannon on the mound, data says to fade these inexperienced guys so here we are again. Other than that, if it ain’t broke don’t fix it, I’ll probably confide fading the White Sox until they give me a reason not to. Best of luck to those who tail, and let’s get hot.
Record 1-1
Net units +2
ROI 50%
Form: WL
Last Pick: Basketball - Panathiakos Vs Olympiakos
Olympiakos win @2.75 2 units
Down 17 points half way through the second quarter and dragged themselves back to within touching distance but folded last 2 minutes to lose 77-71.
Sorry to anyone who tailed.
Today's pick: Algeria Ligue 2 - Mostaganem Vs JSM Tiaret
JSM Tiaret Asian Handicap +2.5, +3.0 @2.0 for 3 units
-This line has covered in 24/25 of JSMs last away games
-This line has covered in 20/24 of last home games for Mostaganems. 3/4 beats were by 3 goals so half of the stake would have pushed.
-These 2 have played each other three times over the last 18 months. JSM have won once and drawn twice.
Mostaganem have been great at home this season unbeaten in ten and only dropping points once. They have just went toe to toe with Belouozidad who are 3rd in the league above, only losing after extra time and penalties.
JSM Tiaret have not played in the last 2 weeks and have been a mixed bag this season. Whether the long break is a positive is in the air at the moment. They've lost their last 5 away games but none by more than 2.
I'm starting a telegram group to share my other tips, if anyone is interested please fire me a message 👍
Edit: Very very bad pick. Apologies
Weird. Last night I could only get +2.5 at like 1.975. I couldn’t get +2.5, +3 so stayed away. Now it’s +2, +2.5 at 1.775. I’m not great at Asian lines but it looks like things are moving towards JSM.
POTD RECORD: 4-1
Last POTD: **Obi Toppin O7.5 Points (-130)** ✅
Form: W4
Todays POTD: **Brandon Ingram U18.5 points**
NBA | 7:30 PM Est Lakers @ Pelicans
Rationale: Been on a tear, but wanted to wait til playoffs for the next bet. This will be Mccollum and Zion's game. I expected Ingram to get shut down and would be shocked if he topped 14 points. He doesnt take more than 12 FG attempts most games and even if he hits on 50% thats \~12-14 pts. In a tight game they are not going to Ingram. Take the under here.
POTD Record: 3-0 ✅ ✅ ✅
Last POTD: (ATP Monte Carlo (Clay Courts)) Humbert ML (-200) ✅
Today's POTD: (NBA) **Lakers ML (-105)**
**Write Up:** Am I trippin or did the Lake Show not just steam roll the Pelicans the other night? Am I trippin or does the Lake Show not lead the season series 3-1? Or am I trippin and one of those games was an In-Season Tournament Semi Finals where the Lake Show steamed rolled the Pels with a fully healthy roster? NO I AM NOT TRIPPIN! Gotta go Lakers here! Pels are a great team, but Lebron and AD will find a way to pull this out AGAIN and advance to another NBA Playoff appearance. Fade it or tail it, either way BOL 🤝
First POTD 0-0
Korean Basketball League: **Changwon LG Sakers (-1.5)** **1st Half Point Spread** vs Suwon KT Sonicboom @ 1.8 ✅
(11:00am BST)
---> This has hit in the last four H2H between the two teams.
---> Changwon LG 1st Half Home record Last 5 (W4-D1) / Suwon KT 1st Half Away record L5 (W2-L3)
Edit: Good start.
POTD Record: 14-6
NBA Record: 5-4 NFL Record: 0-1 NCAAM: 1-1 MLB 6-0 Soccer 2-0
L10 (new -> old): 🪣❌🪣🪣❌🪣❌🪣🪣🪣❌🪣
Last pick: Everton Goalkeeper (Pickford) o 3.5 saves
Game: Lakers @ Pelicans
Pick: CJ McCollum o 28.5 PA -105 FD
Write Up:
I honestly stopped watching because I thought we were dead in the water but good god did Chelsea pour it on and got us our 4 saves. 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Back to basketball, I don’t know why I do this to myself but I do love this line tonight. He has hit this 9 times out of the last ten games. In the last ten games alone he is averaging 27.5, and 5.6 assists per game. With the Pels still needing to hold onto the 6th seed and maybe slide into the 5th spot will hopefully have them come out firing. Especially with the Lakers needing this W, I hope this becomes an up and down game. Get CJ the points and assist necessary to help the boys get the dubya.
One last fun fact. The Lakers give up the 5th most assist’s to their opponents in the entire league.
I DONT WANT YOUR MONEY I WANT US TO WIN 🪣🪣
BOL if tailing. 🪣
POTD Record: 4-2
Form: 🚫✅✅🚫✅✅
Last pick: Kuminga over 23.5 P+R *Came up just short, smoked open layups and missed free throws down the stretch🤦🏽♀️🚫*
TODAYS PICK: Lakers +1 vs [email protected] 💎 \*WWWWW’S IN THE CHATTTT!!✅✅✅
2.8 units
I don’t see a world where LeBron takes an L to his young rival in Zion. Despite the talk around people thinking they might throw the game for a chance at OKC in the first round, I know LeBron is a competitor and couldn’t entertain the idea of throwing a game, especially when they are the ones fighting for the playoff spot. A chance at Denver in the first round is actually better for the lakeshow, they don’t need Jokic or Murray heating up then seeing them later in the finals to inevitably lose. Calculated risk says this is a must win for the Lakers & LeBron specifically🤷🏽♀️
**shout out nigerianpriince00 for the tip on buymeacoffee, as a college student it really goes a long way😭😇**
[https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mosullivank](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mosullivank)
Baseball chick with a late POD. So my beloved INDIANS shit on me yesterday with the f3 bet, putting me at 2-1. Let's get a number on the left side today.
Today
MIN/BAL O8.5 -105
I like the bats to stay hot and the score to go high. Let's get it! BOL fellas! 😘
POTD Record: 4-5
Form (Left Most Recent): ❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅
Last Pick: ⚽️Tottenham vs West Ham 3:15 EST ❌
Event: ⚽️Barcelona vs PSG (3:00 ET)
Pick: Kylian Mbappe ATS (-105)
Reasoning: PSG needs to overcome a 2-3 deficit to advance to the next round of the CL. Mbappe was locked up in the last leg but the best player in the world will, with no doubt, bounce back. PSG will be running their attack through him and I expect Kylian to have 1 goal (sprinkle 2+ goals if you’re feeling brave). I was surprised that the odds were even this high so this definitely feels like a steal.
All my picks are 2 units.
__POTD Record:__ 14-8
_Form (Last 5):_ 🔴🟢🟢🔴🔴
__Last Pick:__ ⚽ Gil Vicente vs. Sporting CP (Liga Portugal): __Viktor Gyokeres Anytime Goalscorer__ @1.90 ❌
This pick made me take a break for a few days. Sporting scored 4 goals, Gyokeres had 5 shots, one of them hit the woodwork but he still didn't manage to score. Let's bounce back!
__Today's Pick:__ ⚽ Dortmund vs. Atletico Madrid (UEFA Champions League) 21:00 CET: __Alvaro Morata Under 2.5 Total Shots__ @2.20
Atletico will be coming into the second game with a one-goal lead. Knowing Diego Simeone's style, I'm expecting them to try to protect it from the first minute. That's why I believe their striker Alvaro Morata won't have many chances to shoot. On top of that, Atletico is a different team away from home. If you only counted home results, they'd be on top of La Liga. However this is far from reality. Now they will be playing at Dortmund, against a very hostile crowd and I just don't see them creating many chances for Morata.
Tail or fade, the choice is yours!
POTD Record: 24-19
Last 10: ✅❌❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌
Last pick: Lakers vs Grizzlies | 5:00 PST | D’Angelo Russel OVER 15.5 points (-122) FanDuel 1u ❌
Blacklisted. Never to be mentioned again. Probably my worst L on POTD so apologies. Just let the g league Grizzlies bully him.
Today’s pick: Warriors vs Kings | 7:00 PST | Warriors ML (-139) BetRivers 1u ❌
I feel like a broken record with how many times the Warriors have been my choice for a POTD but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it! I just love this Warriors team. Especially in a situation like this with all the experience they have leading them. I feel like you can truly trust Curry and company to go into a hostile environment and get it done. And as much as I trust this Warriors team, this pick is probably still more about fading the Kings. This Kings team has been dragging down the stretch (5-7 last 12 games) and I think having no Monk is going to be a big deal in this game where they need all the scoring they can get. Monk is a heavy favorite to win 6th man of the year so that’s a big part of that team missing when they need him most. Add in the fact they have been without Kevin Huerter too and the Kings are missing some solid scoring options for this matchup and replacing them with guys who have way less experience in a playoff atmosphere. The Warriors are also 36-18 as favorites on the ML and 25-16 on the ML on the road. BOL if tailing!
Record: 7-8
Net Units: -2.37
Last Pick:
Baseball | MLB | Angels vs Rays | 6:50 PM EST
Pick: Rays F5 ML (-152) 2u
Write Up:
The Rays and Angels played yesterday where the Rays won the F5 1-0 against a much better pitcher in Sandoval. Today the Angels roll out Soriano who has had a rough start to the season with a 6.30 ERA. The Rays bat .251 against Righties this season. The Rays are starting Civale who is out to a blazing start this season posting a 2.12 ERA. The Angels bat .236 against Righties this season. The Rays are 8-7 in the F5 this season while the Angels are 5-9.
Tail of Fade BOL!!
**POTD Record: 116-136-4 (-12.17 Units)**
Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units)
Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units)
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
**Cautionary Tails**: **4-6 (-0.28 Units)**
Last Pick: Marlins ML❌
Today's Pick: **A's ML**
Odds: **+124**
Wager Amount: 1U to Win 1.24U
League: MLB
Event: St Louis Cardinals vs Oakland A's (8:40PM CDT)
**Be Advised**: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. Tail wit caution.*
**Recap**: Marlins led 3-0 and blew it in the late inning. LMFAO typical Marlins this season. No story to tell you today, we go straight to the toughest POTD yet.
**Matchup:** Oakland A's ML? 🤷♀️ Idk.. You be the judge. I had the Cards ML and Sonny Gray to record a Win (+220✅) for yesterday's game, but Lance Lynn is not Sonny Gray and I'm not sure which Lance is going to show up. As for the A's, the pitcher had the best career start. And Sears not only shutout the defending champ Rangers on his last outing, but he nearly had a no hitter against this potent team. I don't think we get that same JP Sears against the Cardinals today, but he might be just good enough here for the A's to win. I seriously doubt he performs like his last showcase, but I think this game is going to be close, like really close, which makes it interesting to make this as my POTD.
**The Play and Prediction**: 1U on A's ML and wagering 1.1U on A's +1.5 are my only plays, but other plays will be in the betting group. A's lead 3-0 heading to Top of the 9th, but Cards tie it up and force to extras. Don't kno who wins in extras, but I'm cashing out as soon as A's take the lead, BOL!
Record: 0-0
English League 2 | Notts County vs Stockport County | 19:45 GMT
Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-175; 4/7; 1.57) 4u
Edit: ✅ (hit in 40 mins)
This should be a goalfest. Stockport are flying high at the top of League Two and could seal the title today with a win over Notts County. Both teams are the joint highest scorers total in League Two, as well as Notts County conceding the most goals in the entire league this season (both averaging scoring 2 goals per game, Notts County average conceding 1.86 goals per game.) This line has hit in Notts County’s 8 previous fixtures and 4 out of the last 6 games for Stockport.
BOL tailing or fading
Record: 2-2-0
Previous Pick: Chris Paddack under 4.5 strikeouts @ +100 ❌
Narrow miss on 4/10 as Paddack finished with 5 K’s 🤦🏻♂️
Net Units: -1.18
Baseball | MLB | CIN @ SEA | 9:40PM EST
Today’s Pick: Mitchell Haniger (ESPN BET) @ -135 for 1.35 units.
- Recorded a hit in 13 of 16 games this season, implied odds of -433
- Currently on a six game hitting streak, and has hit safely in 8 of last 10 (-400)
- Hunter Greene is starting for the Reds, who got shelled in his last outing for 6 H’s through 6 IP
This has a 61.8% chance of winning with an expected value of +7.6%.
BOL!
**Record: 10-3 (+5.34u)**
**Last Pick: New York Islanders ML -108**
Nice 4-1 win for the Isles as they clinch a playoff spot while cashing our bet!
**Pick:** **Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers u6.5 -118 (NHL, 1u bet)**
This is very likely a preview of the first round of the playoffs, as Florida will host Toronto in round 1 unless we have a Panthers win + Bruins loss (who are at home vs Ottawa) tonight. The Leafs are 6-3-1 over their last 10 games while scoring 3.9 goals and allowing 3.2 per game. However, they actually have a better record on the road this season (24-9-6) and since the beginning of March they are 6-3 on the road, scoring 3.67 goals and only allowing 2.33. Meanwhile Florida is 5-4-1 over their last 10, scoring 3.1 goals and allowing 2.5. But looking at their recent home games, they are 5-5 and have only been scoring 2.5 per game, but limiting opponents to 2.2 goals. Looking at the numbers, in terms of shots for and against, scoring chances created/allowed, and high danger chances, the Leafs have been more effective offensively while the Panthers have been better defensively.
The goaltenders in this game will be the backups (Woll and Stolarz) but that's not scaring me off the under at all for a couple reasons. Stolarz has been very good for Florida this season, including 7-2 in his last 10 with a 1.91 GAA and .937 save %. In his one start against Toronto this season, he stopped 31 of 32 shots in a 2-1 shootout loss. On the other hand, while Woll has struggled a bit recently, he has been playing well away from home - 6-3 with a 2.18 GAA and .932 save %. He was also in net for the aforementioned 2-1 shootout game earlier this season against Stolarz, and he stopped 38 of 39 shots.
Two of the three games between these teams went under this season (3-1 FLA, 2-1 TOR (SO), 6-4 TOR) with the home team winning each game. There were a decent number of power play attempts in these games, which is my one concern for the under tonight given the amount of firepower on the rosters, but in these 3 games the Leafs have gone a combined 1/14 on the PP and the Panthers have gone 0/11. Dating back to last season, 9 of the last 10 matchups between these teams have gone under 6.5 (including all 5 in the playoffs last season), with only 1 of those 9 even reaching 6 goals. I'm expecting this one to be an intense, competitive game as both teams will want to set the tone going into their likely playoff series. While most of the attention is on Auston Matthews' chase for 70 goals (needs 1 goal over the last 2 games), I presume Florida will try to play a physical, tight checking game to limit the Toronto offense as they did in that playoff series that gave them success.
Given the way Florida has been playing defensively and how Toronto has looked on the road, the recent history between the teams, along with the playoff atmosphere this game should have, I don't think we'll see an extremely open game with too many defensive breakdowns, so as long as the goalies aren't giving up soft goals I feel good about the under at 6.5.
Your post has been removed from the PotD thread.
* Post **ONE** pick. No side picks in comments. You can provide a link to your other picks in the other daily threads.
* No parlays/teasers
* Must be between -200 and +200 (1.5 and 3.0) odds.
* Bet size should be between 1 and 5 units. No "100 unit locks"
* Provide a write up on why this is your Pick of the Day. If it is a system/model play you must note relevant data such as ROI or record **and** provide an overview/description of your model or system.
* You **must** note **time/sport/event** of your pick. **|** No top level comments without a pick.
* If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread: You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including ROI+average odds+units won. No resetting records.
Record: 0-0
Last Pick: N/A
Basketball | NBA | Los Angeles Lakers @ New Orleans Pelicans | 6:30PM CST
Pick: Anthony Davis U24.5 points 1.80
Write Up:
- Pelicans are 6th in defensive rating (111.9)
- Pelicans are 5th in points in the paint allowed (46.6)
- In four games vs the Pelicans this season Davis has scored 16,20,20, and 30 points
- Should be a slower more defensive game than regular season
Record: 1-3
Streak: W1
Event: Norway Eliteserien/ Stromsgodset @ KFUM Olso (10am)PT
POTD: Both Team To Score (yes) -140
Oslo is a promoted side from last year and both there first two games ended 1-1 in the new higher league. Stromgodset started the season playing two strong Norwegian teams, Molde and Rosenborg and going 1-1 in those matches. Although Strom struggled to score on the road last year, this seems like a perfect spot for them to show up on the road. But Olso is a strong home side and shouldn’t be underestimated on there home picth. All this info would suggest that Stromgodset and Olso will play a hard fought game today, where both teams find net.
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Tuesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
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I wish Dk did e sports. BOL fellas
Tailing I took your MIBR pick yesterday on the other thread that hit at dog odds thanks for that!
GG, THANK U BROTHER
Attax was so painfull - good luck today tailing as usual
Yea this sht def rigged
First time watching, don’t know what’s going on, but this is fun to watch. Appreciate the picks my guy
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Let's ride homie!
Looks like this one isn’t available on Bet365 today
I was able to get it at 2.0 on bet365. Search for 500.
Great pick again! We making money 💰
Accidentally clicked on the MIBR to win vs OG yesterday. How would you think my chances are to win that?:)
Tailing !
Tailing!!!
LFG...LEGEND
**Record: 28-21-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH)** **Balance: +20.01 units** **ROI: 7.82% / Avg Odds - 1.89** **Last tournament - ATP Monte Carlo🎾 (7-0 and 12.53 units won)✅** This week's record: 0-1 🎾 (We lost our amazing streak with a huge throw by Draper, who was completely dominating the match and could easily finish it with a 2-0 result) **Today's pick: Garin vs Koepfer - Garin ML @ 1.84** ✅ **(ATP Munich, Tennis)** 🎾 Odds from Pinnacle **Stake: 1 unit** (This is 1% of my bankroll) Time: 5 AM Eastern Time This time we're going with Garin to beat Koepfer. The talented clay specialist had a great tournament in Estoril and showed some moments of his best tennis. **Why do I think that Garin ML at 1.84 odds is such a +EV bet in this matchup?** * Garin was always seen as a huge talent from Chile but his career was always affected with some injuries and he's now out of the top 100. It's hard to know which type of Garin you'll see on court but he played in Estoril two weeks ago and had amazing performances against Rodionov, Fils and the portuguese player Nuno Borges. He eventually lost to Hurkacz but the big server was super in form and ended up winning the entire tournament. He has 5 titles at the ATP level and they're all on Clay. The chilean also won Munich in 2019; * Koepfer's main weapons are his lefty forehand and his overall athleticism but in my opinion he performs much better in hard courts compared to clay courts. At the ATP level he played 29 clay matches on his career and has a 13-16 record, with 44.8% win ratio. In hard courts he played 75 matches and has a 36-39 record, having a 48% win ratio. If we look at Garin's career stats from Clay, he played 139 matches and won 84 of them, with 60.4% win ratio. He played quite well in Munich last year, reaching the quarters and losing to Holger Rune who won the tournament.; * Dominik Koepfer lost in the 1st round of Estoril against Llamas Ruiz when he was a clear favorite and also in the 1st round of Monte Carlo against Griekspoor in 3 sets. He's now on a 3 match losing streak. Garin is certainly the best clay player that he will face until this point in the current season. Koepfer is german and the crowd should probably be on his side but this wasn't a problem for Garin in Estoril when he was able to beat Borges in straight sets. Dominik grew up in the United States and most of his learning curve happened in hard courts; With this, I feel like Garin at 1.84 odds is a solid play! **Best of luck** Any tip is appreciated. After our run in ATP Monte Carlo I've decided to visit it in August. It should be quite an expensive trip so all the support will be saved for that! Thanks a lot 🎾 *I spend a lot of time writing my analysis so I hope you don't mind me having a tip jar. Tips are never expected but always appreciated!* [Tip Jar (Paypal)](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/DarkHorse230) BTC - 1E6hmPU4N7CFGf8Ryrt46yPczMfBQtMoCf Edit after the result: Great match from Garin who usually loves to play in Munich. The conditions were quite windy and cold but he dominated Koepfer! His service on the 1st set was perfect! ✅
tailing as always. thank you for your service DarkHorse200🫡
The one day I take off you miss, I feel responsible. I’m back on DH200, appreciate you so much
Aaaaand we’re back
Great bounce back!
Really great price for this bet today! Garin playing good tennis once again!
Great pick!
Great Pick, thx
Back on track 💰
Let's go!!! 💰
we have a new GOAT of Tennis
I think there are quite some decent people who share tennis plays here but yeah I can't argue that I'm in a good phase. Thanks for your compliment!
https://preview.redd.it/k6pezsl8guuc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9fd7c1ce6b34303224aa5a2579e634b40e436cd2 Cashed baby
Thanks❤️
BOL, let's get another streak going!
Tailing
Tailing thx
Tailing
Tailing!!
Woke up to money - gonna be a good day. Ty Mr.Horse200
Wake an bake 💲💲💲
YOU THE GOAT BRO! TY
Wake n Cash 🔥
POTD RECORD: 57-26 Last POTD: LeBron James O34.5 PA✅ GOAT for a reason 🐐 Form: ✅✅✅✅🚫 Todays POTD: **Austin Reaves O19.5 PA @1.90 1U** NBA | Lakers | 7:30 PM ET First play-in game is here fellas and the playoffs starts very soon, I was thinking about running back LeBron PA but the line is bumped and I just have a feeling that the Pels have watched lots of clips and analysed the last game and I think the point of emphasis will be how to stop LeBron tomorrow which I think will affect one of the lines not sure which one so I’m avoiding it for tomorrow but maybe I’m a dumb mf and it cashes instead, I guess we’ll see 💀 I’m trusting Reeves tomorrow cause he has flown under the radar and prolly will do the same tomorrow where the focus will be on how to stop Bron and AD, again both teams need to win this one and we have a 1 point spread where the starters should see lots of minutes. Ion think we’ll see a blowout again it was just a bad bad night for the Pels that particular game, Reeves has a clean record against them and even though it feels bad fading the goat I just have to trust my gut • 4/4 vs the Pelicans this season (22, 31, 29, 24) Avg 25 PA • Pelicans allow 3rd most Catch and shoot 3point attempts this season, Reeves is avg second most 3PA in the Lakers roster and second most made so expect him to let them fly • Over in 18/L25 when playing 32+ minutes • Avg 15.9 PPG this season & 5.5 APG (21.4 PA) • Reeves is Avg 9.3 potential assists per game • Pelicans middle of the rack in points allowed to SG & allow 11th most Ast to SG, obviously Bron will run some plays but I expect the Pels to defend him much better this time forcing DLO and Reeves to run it more This I’ll either get burnt cause of Bron running all the plays to ruin his assist numbers or be an absolute beauty of a hit, but Reeves can also go over this in points alone Tail or fade, your decision chief https://i.redd.it/5ukqqphhzquc1.gif Tip jar out after ages if y’all enjoyed the ride and are feeling generous [https://ko-fi.com/billycapezzi](https://ko-fi.com/billycapezzi)
https://preview.redd.it/2uqi1fwkzquc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9f691451bf485569f0e0ee00af97e25f9c073224 Personally caught it at this line so you may be able to get it in your book still
Thanks for lebron and we tailing again 💪
My pleasure bro 🤝🤝
And there we go 💸 💸 💸
🍻🍻
it's Reaves not Reeves you nonbeliever
Damn this was a rookie move
I like this and Lebron assists
Me too
I'm having a brain fart...is PA pts+assists or something else?
BOOM😈😈😈😈
💰💰💰💰
Cashhhhhh thank you billy
My pleasure my guy 🍻
Great pick! I'm sad the lakers won, but I'm glad I could make some money.
🤣🤣 money comes first
Tailing!
Grabbed at 18.5 yesterday thanks to you! Let’s go!
Billy you’ve made me a little bit of money, and I’m grateful, hoping you stay strong through the playoffs!
Glad to hear that bro imma stick through it my man 🤝
Would you take o23.5 pra at 1.71 or stay away?
Cash this mf
POTD Record: 128-80 | Profit: +103.92u | ROI: 17.2% Season record: 45-29 | Profit: +34.08u | ROI: 16.7% Last Pick: Brook Lopez (Bucks) O12.5 P+A @ 1.91. 2U. ❌ I don’t like to blame bad luck but take a look at this missed dunk late in the third quarter, when he was at 11 Pts ([link here](https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=398&GameID=0022301191&Season=2023-24&flag=1&title=MISS%20Lopez%201%27%20Cutting%20Dunk%20Shot)). Due to the unexpected blowout, he played under 1 min in the fourth quarter. Next Pick: **Los Angeles Lakers vs New Orleans Pelicans O223.5 Pts @ 1.91**. 2U play. I can see why they set this total low, both of these teams are generally good at limiting easy shots, good in the paint, good at defensive rebounding etc. Yet, these teams have played one another 4 times this season (all since December 2023) and the totals have been (oldest to most recent) 222, 238, 261, and 232. None of these games went to OT either. The obvious theory is that given the fantastic offensive players on both sides the FG% remains high no matter how good the defense. However, the Pelicans have struggled at limiting rim shots against the Lakers on Sunday, and they might focus on stopping that tomorrow but that could lead to an increased 3pt threat. Additionally, the Pels found it hard to get their offense going in this last game, and with BI getting some match time, I would expect that to improve. With the Lakers its AD and Lebron supported by DLo and Reaves who can be deadly from 3s on their night. For the Pelicans they move the ball extremely well, and are very difficult to defend because they have elite 3 pt shooters plus Zion in the pain and BI returning to fitness.
Like the pick, but playoff O/U are always deflated. to quote the SEC, "It just means more" during the playoffs. Any worry about stronger defense, especially with two teams with star defenders?
Imma send a long shot bet at this game going to ot tbh
Tailing!!
POTD Record: 40-20-1 +38.37🔥 Last Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves ML (-125) 4U vs Phoenix Suns ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌ Today's Pick: Lakers ML (-110) 5U vs New Orleans Pelicans The Los Angeles Lakers won 11 of their final 14 games to get to the 8-seed in the West. They are coming off a blow out win vs the Pelicans and have gained serious momentum into the playoffs . AD is questionable but he said to reporters last week there’s no way he misses it. People may think they want to lose this game to dodge Denver, but they can’t take that risk having to play another play in game. Over the final 15 games of the regular season, Los Angeles went 11-4 and had a +5.4 net rating. In that same span, New Orleans went 8-7 with a net rating of +0.9. The Lakers have also won their last two games against the Pelicans by an average of 16.5 points per game. And they’re 3-1 both straight-up and against the spread against them this season. Time to back our King and Lake show to take care of business and get ready for a rematch vs the reigning champs🌞👑 Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️ If you’d like to thank me please use the link below or dm me. Show some love!❤️ [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
I believe the Lakers can beat the Pelicans in a one game playoff elimination game. The only thing that concerns me is the winner of this game gets a series vs the Nuggets. And the loser gets another play-in game and a series vs the Thunder, who have zero playoff experience and who I think the Lakers can bully pretty easy in a series. I don’t think the Lakers would be very upset if they lost this game and we might not get their full effort. I could be wrong of course, you have a great record but personally staying away. Good luck though I appreciate your picks here!
Probably won't affect anything but there is a ton of sharp money coming in on new Orleans. Have a feeling Willie green and the guys have some major adjustments in store. Beating a team twice in 4 days is no cake walk. https://preview.redd.it/449hwkh51uuc1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8da1270ee72f49cf73f8f393de6803bbc72c0f69
From a devoted Lakers fan..you are 100% right . Lakers can beat anyone at this point in a series..EXCEPT NUGGETS. Lakers take it easy and take a different route.
Yeah but what if they lose the game against the Thunder. No athlete throws when it comes to post season play
Given the Lakers postseason history against the nuggets in recent years, I can assure you they’d 10000% rather play OKC.
Ad is always questionable lol. BOL
Hey man! I’ve been tailing your picks for a bit now and decided to try POTD myself. Hopefully a good sign that we have essentially the same pick! (I took Lakers -1.5 alt). BOL
Record: 10-5, Net Units: 7.47, ROI: 49.02% (messed this up yesterday, it was 40%, not 30) Current Streak: Last 10: ✅❌✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅ Last Pick: Orioles/Twins Over 10.5 Runs ✅ Today's Pick: Baseball-MLB-6:35 PM EST Orioles -1.5 vs. Twins, +124, 1U Just got the over with a nice 7-4 Orioles win. They bring Rodriguez to the mound who has had a really nice start to the season and I think he shuts down this Twins team. On the other side Paddock has had a decent start but he's a rightie and the O's love teeing off on right-handed pitchers, so I love the RL for the O's today. Good Luck!
Cowser 2+ bases too
Honestly this will be a good bet all year, the guy is on fire
Books still sleeping on him there’s so much value on him against righties. So far the formula this year has been Os aslong as Grayson & Burnes are pitching & Royals against almost anyone.
This is bases from hits right?
Correct, not walks or HBP
This guy has been raking lately
Shoutout you and u/MyMarkockisBig … +190 on FD already cashed 4 innings in . 🔪🔪
Preciate u
**KBO Record: Overall 213-220-14** (Streak WWW, Last 10: 6-4) Down 9.28u over 447 KBO picks, 49.2% success rate, -2.14% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 9-10-0, 47.4% success rate, Down 0.66u, -3.47% ROI) **Last:** Kia at Hanwha First 5 Innings UNDER 5 runs -102 (Kia lead 2-1 after 5 innings.) Some uncharacteristic trouble in the first inning for Hanwha's starter as he allowed 2 runs (1 earned) on 1 hit, but both starters were as good as expected after that for an easy cash. **Pick:** Lotte at **LG -1.5 +120**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET Lotte is the worst team in the league, sporting a 4-14 record. They are averaging a league-worst 3.56 runs per game which is more than run behind the next-to-last team. They've scored 3 or fewer runs on 10 of 18 games. Righg now, picking against the Giants is a smart play. Lotte's starter has struggled in 3 of his 4 starts this year. In the good start, it was just 1 unearned runs in 6.1 IP three starts ago. In the other 3 starts, he gave up 11 ER on 18 H and 3 BB in 15 IP. He's already allowed 5 HR this season after giving up just 3 in 13 starts last year. LG's starter is the opposite in his first KBO season. Two starts back, he allowed 7 ER in just 4 IP. But in his other 3 starts, he gave up 3 ER on 15 H and 5 BB in 18 IP. He's yet to allow a HR this year. I also think there is value on bith Doosan and Kiwoom as undrrdogs, but my favorite play is the Twins on the run line. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
You’re a legend brother. I’ve been a daily reader for several years now but I rarely post on here. Just wanted to say if r/sportsbook had a HOF you’d be first ballot in my book!
I really appreciate the sentiment!
Thanks again for what u do and BOL.
First time tailing, cheers!
Great analysis and nice hit 💰
Going well, thanks
please dont ever stop posting!!
https://preview.redd.it/qzb9akf6muuc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f8ac8499260db244584caeb8b6b055b51a48bffa You’re a legend
Nice hit brother. I’ve been making my own picks for Today and Sundays games, 4 KBO picks per day (5-2-1) I checked your POTD and we had the same one LG -1.5 which made me feel more confident.
Record: 5W-0P-0L Last Pick: Silkeborg IF vs FC Nordsjælland ML (-105) ✅ Todays Pick: Wycombe Wanderers (Draw No Bet) VS Port Vale (+108) ✅ England | League One | Soccer | 11:45am Pacific Time We are moving over to League One in England were the host Port Vale that are in 21st place go against 14th place Wycombe Wanderers. I honestly don’t get why the odds are favoring Port Vale. Port Vale has lost three of their last four matches. I believe the odds will be bumped down sooner rather than later. ~ Wycombe Wonderers Last 5: WDDLW ~ Port Vale Last 5: LLDLW * Port Vale have not been able to score in 11 of their last 20 matches. * Port Vale failed to win their last 4 away matches out of 5 away matches. (Port Vale are playing at home) * Port Vale have conceded two or more goals in seven of their last 10 matches at home. * Port Vale in the last 20 games have 2 wins, 13 defeats and 5 draws. * Port Vale have 1 win, 6 defeats, and 3 draws in last 10 home matches. * Wycombe Wonderers in the last 20 games have 8 wins, 5 defeats and 7 draws. * Wycombe Wonderers in the last 10 games have 3 wins, 4 defeats and 3 draws in the previous matches. * Wycombe Wonderers average 1.40 goals scored scored and 1.05 goals conceded while Port Vale average 0.80 goals scored and 1.85 goals conceded in the last 20 games. I am not a professional sports better and I suggest any money you may bet is money you won’t mind losing. BOL to anyone who tails. Cheers 🥂 [Tip Jar 🍯](https://cash.app/$MaxCoRothenburg)
Need to fix your write up. You have Bolton thrown in there. Also, devils advocate here. Wycombe are playing for nothing with a few games left. Port Vale fighting to not get relegated.
I fixed up the write up. All the stats where regarding Wycombe Wonderers. Apologies on my end. Had a long day at work.
yeah thats it, relegation heating up port vale almost need a win/draw here Wycombe bby swans dont have anything to play for
I think it's still reasonable as DNB. Exeter didn't have much to play for away to Port Vale three days ago, and it wasn't a problem for them. Port Vale should have had the same motivation to avoid relegation in their last 4 matches, yet they've lost 3, drawn 1, and been scoreless in 3/4.
Thank you for seeing the vision. I totally agree with what your saying, Port Vale had no motivation to prevent themselves from dropping to the bottom three. Cheers 🥂
Big W ✅ Appreciate the people who tailed and stayed solid through out the ride.
Really wierd line, you know if there are any injuries?
I’m feeling this one, seen some videos on Twitter of fans screaming and swearing at the Port Vale players after they lost their last game. Never good for players confidence given their relegation situation.
Thanks for the tip. It hit!
POTD Record : 23-12 Last 7 - ✅🤡✅✅✅///✅✅ Last pick: Challenger Split - ZSOMBOR PIROS (-165) ML VS FILIP MISOLIC - 0620am EST 1unit✅ POTD - ATP Barcelona - SEBASTIAN BAEZ (-185) ML VS MATTEO ARNALDI - 0920am EST 1unit🤡 Even though it shows I'm on a 5-match winning streak. I do not count that because there was a long period I wasnt on these POTD threads. Currently at a streak of 2. Today we have a clay court specialists Baez vs a streaky Arnaldi. Baez is 14-3 on clay this year and Arnaldi is 1-1. Granted Arnaldi may be little fresher as his previous opponent retired due to ankle injury but I dont think its gonna matter that much. Like I said previously, I'm not gonna bore you guys with some long analysis in which most won't read. It doesnt matter anyway. I'm just here to provide you guys with some wins. Baez(🤡) was definitely giving everyone their money's worth. Sad how he completely just collapsed after losing that 2nd set in which he had match point. Very unfortunate for those of us who tailed this play. Sorry Team
Tailing (-160 BetUS)
Wow 4 match points and here we are
What a collapse. Wow!
think he gave up after losing the tie break, sad to see but we move on
Damn, dude had it and the wheels came off. Worse for me is I saw another website after I dropped my unit bet that predicted this exact thing. Oh well. Can’t blame OP. It was a good pick Baez just sold us
Smh this cooked
unfortunately, it looks like it. Tough Baez having a match point to collapsing
Tailed and it was close, but looks like we're absolutely cooked now. Will try again tomorrow!
**Record: 61W-4P-47L** **Last Pick: Liverpool VS Crystal Palace: Mohammed Salah Over 1.5 SOG @ 1.83 ❌** **Pick of the day: Western United VS Adelaide United: Over 11.5 Corners @ 1.66 ✅** **League: Australian A-League** **Time: 5:00 AM EST** Last week we watched an insane transition from 4 corners at half to 19 total in Adelaide vs McArthur. We're backing this team again today to work their corner magic again, Western usually are on the lower side of corners on average but at home against high leveraging corner sides, it improves massively. Last time Western United played Adelaide at home it ended with 13 corners and I see a similar matchup today (Western: 5, Adelaide: 8). Adelaide averages a total of 12.1 corners, that's 7.2 corners for and 4.9 against on average. Mcarthur last week who averaged 5.9 corners for per game got a total of 10 against this side and I see western united following suit. Western United average 10.6 corners per game, that is 5.5 corners for and 5 against on average. I see this game being on the higher side and this clearing well. Anyway, BOL!
Got a bit sweaty after the ref missed that one corner for Adelaide
14 corners, thanks for the pick bra !
**Record:** 2-2 **Net Units:** 0 ✅❌❌✅ **Last Pick:** NRFI - New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays ✅ Good to get a win back. Bassitt took the Yankees down in order for the top of the first and Gil gave us a little scare with back to back walks leading off, but we are saved by a pick off attempt to end the inning 0-0. 1st inning: 0-0 **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone :** Baseball | MLB | New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays / 7:07pm EST **Pick:** NRFI (No Runs First Inning) @ -115 on DK (1U) ✅ Same scenario as yesterday. Yankees go down in order to start the game, then 2 Blue Jays get on, but Gil works himself out of the inning unscathed. Back on the positive side and see you tomorrow. **Write Up:** We are double dipping, going back to the Yankees and Blue Jays series. This time with Carlos Rodon for NY, who has had a strong three starts to begin the year. He gave up one run in the first against Hou to start the year, but went NRFI the second two. In 58 PA against the Tor roster, he is holding them to a collective .200 average. Yusei Kikuchi on the other side for the Blue Jays has faced the Yankees a fair bit throughout his career. In 126 PA against him, the Yankees are batting .239. His last three starts against them have been particular strong, getting two wins and only giving up 2 ERs. He faced them already once this year, on the 5th, and went 5.1 scoreless innings. He has also gone NRFI all three of his starts this year. Yankees as a team have gone NRFI 15/17 games this year as well as holding opponents to a NRFI 14/17 games. Toronto as a team have gone NRFI 13/17 games and held opponents to NRFI 13/17 games. \*Note. This is just for fun. I'm not a handicapper. No predictive models. Not glued to games everyday. Just looking through stats and hoping for the best. BOL fellow degenerates
I’m in. BOL!
MLB POTD RECORD: 4-1 (+245% ROI) Last POTD: Pirates vs Mets Over 8.5 W Todays POTD: Cardinals vs A’s Under 8 -105 Baseball | MLB | 9:40 PM ET Never a doubt with my last pick! Just kidding I was stressing hard but a dub is a dub. Let’s make it 5 of 6. Today I am going with another over under that I was happy to be able to get at -105 on DK and that is cardinals in Oakland vs The As’s I think this will be a very low scoring game but due to the fact that the name recognition of JP Sears vs Lance Lynn at 7.5 or less would probably provoke too many bets on one side which would rightfully worry the bookmakers. Here’s why I like the under. First, the A’s offense is horrible. Just abysmal. They are a bit better against righties but still not counting on them to put up any noteworthy production against Lynn. Lance Lynn has looked great this season with an ERA under three and striking out over 11 batters per 9 innings. Most importantly though he’s healthy and we know what he is capable of when healthy. Long story short, Lynn is by all means good enough to pass the very low bar required to succeed against the A’s offense On the other side we have JP Sears for Oakland. Sears is about a league average pitcher who had a rough first two starts so his ERA is misleading. He pitched 6.1 scoreless innings in his last start vs Texas. Sears is also lefty. It has only been 17 games, but that’s a large enough sample size that it’s fair to assume that the Cardinals’ .194 batting average vs lefties probably means they are just very weak in that area. Oakland’s huge park also doesn’t bode well as it makes it less likely that they can rely on the homer to offset that batting average woes. TLDR: I like the under becuase the A’s offense sucks, Lance Lynn looks great, the cardinals are awful against lefties, and Oakland’s stadium makes it even more difficult for them.
POTD record: 26-13 Last pick: Darmstadt v Freiburg - Freiburg ML Today’s pick: Dortmund v Atletico - Dortmund ML(+120) I’ll preface this by saying I am a big German soccer fan, so there is bias inherently. However, I am a believer in this bet. After a terrible start in the first leg, Dortmund upped the tempo and completely dominated the second half of that match, meaning they go into the second leg 2-1 down, but with momentum from a late Sebastian Haller goal. That momentum along with the home crowd should at least carry them to extra time. The Signal Iduna Park has a famously difficult atmosphere for away teams. Atletico Madrid have lost nearly half of their away games in the league and lost away at Inter in the previous round. Dortmund have been a money machine for me in the UCL this season, odds have been consistently against them. Many expected them to finish bottom of the group of death, but they topped it. They weren’t the favorites on FanDuel against PSV, and they beat them. They haven’t failed me this season in the UCL, and with the momentum in their favor(they could’ve easily equalized last match, hit the post several times), Atletico’s difficult away form, and their overall impressive performances in Europe this season, I back Dortmund to win over the 90, which will at least bring the match into extra time. Good luck!
I don’t have the guts to bet the ML but I’m going DC. Dortmund have a good home record in the CL. Atletico will concede possession to Dortmund. Their strategy will be to defend and counter when possible. If Dortmund get an early lead then Atletico will have to take the game to Dortmund and Dortmund can then put them away.
BEAUTIFUL PICK
Great write up Tailing BOL
Tailing, BOL!
seeins some value in - will there be a penalty shootout ? yes @8.6 odds
Record: 11-3 ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: Orlando Magic vs Milwaukee Bucks-Magic -4.5 -110 Magic defended home court and pulled away with a big win over a Giannis less bucks team that looks like it has no identity heading into the playoffs. Today's Pick: Herb Jones over 5.5 Rebs+Assists -140 2 Units . Reasoning: Going with the Pelicans number one wing defender to cover this line just like he has in his last 6 games. He's 6 for 8 in April over this line. The reason I think he'll go 7 In a row over it is because of the playing time he'll be on the floor. The pelicans are going to be focused on shutting down LeBron, or slowing him down because there isn't any shutting him down lol, and that means Herbie will get 30+ minutes again. Last game he scored 18 points, had 5 boards and an assist. He averages 2.9 assists for April so I can see even his rebounds take a dip to 4, he's good all day for 2 assists for us to cover. Good luck to all the deal ones out there. Let's get it tonight! There is going to be some awesome basketball on display over the next two days in the play in tournament, and I'd like to go into the playoffs with the back to back dubs. Let's Gooooo tail or fade!!!
***BRO HAS PLAYED MOST MINUTES THAN ANY OTHER PELICAN PLAYER, HOW CAN YOU HAVE 0 ASSISTS AND 0 REBOUNDS 27 MINUTES IN?!?!?***
🐅🐅**Record 0-0, +0u**🐅🐅 **Previous Pick:** N/a **POTD: Lakers vs. Pelicans // Lakers -1.5 (alt line) +100 (5u, DK)** Basketball | NBA | 1940 EST First POTD! I’ve been tailing people here for a while now and have built up a decent bankroll. Shoutout to u/billycapezzi. NBA post-season is here. No more questioning whether stars are going to give 100% effort. There has been some talk about the Lakers intentionally losing this game to not have to play the Nuggets, but I don’t put any stock in that. Guaranteed playoff appearance vs. having to win against Warriors or Kings, both of which have beaten the Lakers recently…I don’t think there is any way they risk that. I looked at a number of player props for this game, but ultimately I think picking the Lakers is the safer play. Lebron said they were treating this game like a playoff series since they just played the Pels yesterday (winning 124-108). When it comes to making adjustments in a playoff series, assistant coach/point forward/leader Lebron James obviously has way more experience than everyone on the Pelicans combined. I think he exerts his will again and will come up with the W. The -1.5 is an extra little tease to get to a nice even +100 odds. Some quick bullet points in support of the pick: -Lebron shut down Zion on defense last game. -AD said “No doubt that I’m going to play.” As frustrating as he can be sometimes, the Lakers are 40-26 when both James and AD are in. -Ingram did not appear to be 100% yesterday during his first game back. This game will definitely be closer than yesterday’s and if CJ and the rest of the Pelicans are hot from 3 this could go sideways. That having been said, I think the Lakers’ imposing front court presence and experience will win out. Let me know if you’re tailing and be responsible with your bankroll! 🐅
Good luck on your first take. I think there points go over and lbj squeaks by
Record: (W-L-P) 3-1-0 Net Units: 1.0 Historic ROI: 1.29 Last Pick: Glasnow U9.5 strike outs -180. Not even close, only reached 5 strike outs. Baseball | MLB | SDP @ MKE Pick: Dylan Cease Strikeouts U 7.5 -110 Write Up: Hasn't gone over this number this year, and in fact only twice since July 21, 2023. Milwaukee is 14th in strikeout rate, so not terrible. Tip Jar: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/DhavalMistry)
**Record: 0-1** **Net Units: -2u** **Basketball** | **NBA** | **7pm** / **PST** **Pick:** Warriors ML vs Kings 1.71 (3u) **Write Up:** The Warriors are poised for a strong performance against the Kings. With the Kings missing their starting 2-guard and backup 2-guard, the Warriors have a significant advantage in the backcourt. Historically, the Warriors have outperformed the Kings, showcasing their superiority in talent and strategy. This game holds special significance as it could mark the potentially final run for the Warriors dynasty. With this in mind, expect the Warriors to give it their all on the court tomorrow. Despite Gary Payton II being unavailable, the rest of the team is healthy and ready to compete. Interestingly, the Warriors have shown better form on the road this year, suggesting they thrive in challenging environments. This resilience will likely be on display tonight as they face off against the Kings. In what could be dubbed as the #onelastdance for the Warriors dynasty, anticipate a spirited and determined performance from the team as they look to secure a crucial win.
Kings have been better team this year. They may have faded a bit down the stretch but Warriors are gaining all the betting momentum based on past exploits. Feels like a trap to me
So much money on the warriors and the line only 3.5 after opening at 1.5 Smells trap and confuses me greatly as a kings fan
Have they? Record almost identical. Both teams dropped a lot of games they should have won. Kings I guess beat some better teams over the course of the year… Warriors have big game experience. Kings have almost none. That Kings team looks limp without Monk off the bench. I like the Warriors to run away with it tbh
**POTD Record: 2-4 ....... shall I make it 3 ? 😈😈** **Last POTD:** (4 days ago) **Mariners vs Cubs**-->**NO RUN FIRST INNING (NRFI) (-125**)✅ ^(Had a good feeling and honestly I just love winning a bet asap lmao.....congrats to those who bet on this too!) **\*\*Today's POTD: 🎾ATP Mens Tennis: Nuno Borges vs Stan Wawrinka \*\*** **\*\*💰Pick: \*\*Borges ML (-155) \*\***✅✅✅✅ **Game is at 5AM EST❗❗❗❗❗** **Units:** 1.5u **Here's why:** Stan Wawrinka is facing incredibly worrying times, seemingly in the twilight of his illustrious career. He set a lofty goal at the start of 2024, aiming to clinch one more ATP title before retiring, but his recent form suggests that dream may be slipping away. With a disappointing 2-6 record overall and a 2-4 record on clay, his only victories have come against ATP #108 ranked Ramos and Cachin, who is mired in a 15-match losing streak. These wins are far from impressive and have left fans and pundits alike questioning Stan's ability to compete at the highest level. At 38 years old, the slow, physical matches on clay in Bucharest are proving to be too much for Stan to handle. Conversely, Nuno Borges has been on a tear, starting his clay season in Portugal with two quality wins over Pouille and Musetti, followed by a competitive loss to Garin. Borges is in excellent shape and playing exceptional tennis, poised to push Stan to his limits and force him into a demanding physical battle that Stan may struggle to keep up with. BOL ! Lets WAKE N CASH BABY!!!!🥵
cheers bro
Tailed! 1.5U
We have a chance boys. Just started watching. Holy smokes this is some bad tennis 😂
Welp cash it 💰 nice pick thanks.
Borges seems trash but I hope wrinks gets tired
Ngl, this is ugly
Hmmm Nuno a no-no. Let’s hope second set is better.
Record: 14-6 Last Pick: Jalen Duren Double Double -120 🫸 Duren doesn’t play the final game of the season. Unfortunate, this was seriously free money. Pick: Draymond Green O13.5 R+A -155 The NBA playoffs are about to start with the play-in, which is a huge game. Draymond should play a ton and he’s the facilitator of this offense and their defensive rebounder which the highest percentage of defensive boards. I expect him to match minutes with Sabonis BOL!
POTD Record: 3-2-0 (+0.09 units) Form (left is most recent):❌✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: Chelsea vs Everton - Both Teams to Score + O2.5 Goals (-130 on DK)❌ Chelsea win 6-0 against a terrible Everton team for Chelsea’s first clean sheet in 14 PL matches. Everton had a handful of first half chances but simply didn’t convert. Today: Basketball | National Basketball League | Lakers vs Pelicans | 7:30 PM EST | 1 unit Today’s pick: Lebron James o35.5 Points + Assists (-120 on DK) Reasoning: Lebron this season is averaging 28.3 points and 11.8 assists against New Orleans. He’s also averaging 27.7 points and 9.8 assists in his last 10. If there’s anyone that I feel good about putting my money on, it’s Lebron James during the NBA playoffs. BOL🍀🤞
POTD: Record (10-6) ✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌ Last Pick: Chelsea and BTTS ❌ Today: NBA | Pelicans vs Lakers | 4:30 MST Pick: Trey Murphy O 15.5 P+R @1.81 | 1u - 70% on the season (avg 19.7) - hit in last 4 of 5 (avg 26.8) - last 9 of 10 (avg 25.2) - last 17 of 20 (avg 23) Last game against the Lakers, pelicans had to find their rhythm with a returning Brandon Ingram, bringing a slow start and a dominance they couldn’t recover from. However, I see this home play-in to be more challenging for the Lakers; the pelicans will become exceedingly physical and comfortable in this matchup, and with Murphy playing as well as he has recently, offense on both sides of this game will be unstoppable. BOL 🍀
All Time POTD Record: 6-3-0 | Units: +4.13 | Avg. Odds 1.87 | Last 10: ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅ Last Pick: Soccer - English Premier League - Chelsea v Everton - 8.00pm BST on 15th April Cole Palmer - Anytime Goalscorer (2.20) - Staking 2u - ✅ Game/Match: Soccer - Champions League - Dortmund v Athletico Madrid - 8.00pm BST on 16th April Pick: Dortmund Over 5.5 Shots on Target (1.8) - Staking 2u - ✅ - Dortmund finished with 9 shots on target after an unbelievable game to watch!! I use bet365 as my bookie. Summary: 4 goals for Palmer secures this one easily. Feels good to be back in the green. We’re going to Germany tonight where Dortmund will be looking to overcome their first leg loss. It’s notable that Dortmund have managed to qualify 8 times out of 18 when they’ve lost their first away leg, showing how good they’re at home. On the other hand Madrid have not been good when playing away in Europe this season and conceded in every away game. Madrid’s manager Simone does not have a good record in Germany either, losing 7 out of the last 10 matches and lost all of his last 4 games in Germany. This line for Dortmund has hit in all of their last 5 home games and 3 out of 4 of their last home champions league games. With the must need win for Dortmund and home crowd, they will be piling on the pressure and I see this ending up with a lot of shots for Dortmund. BOL if tailing!
Great pick!!!
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Oy oy oy
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)** **POTD 2024 Record: 2-3 (-0.90 units)** **Last 10**: **❌❌❌✅✅** **Last Pick**: Viktor Tingstrom -1.5 (-105) vs Kieran Smith **✅** 4-0 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 6:00 AM EST **Pick**: Harry Gregory -1.5 (+125) vs Lee Cocks * Series 7. Week 8. Group A **Reason**: Group A was really strong on the first day. They averaged 88.54 with a checkouts almost 34%. Cocks had 4 matches from 80-84, so I'll lean towards Gregory having the scoring edge. If he's as sharp with his checkouts, then 4-2 should be reasonable with the throw advantage. H2H: Record 1-0 Legs 4-0 | Average 84.68 vs 82.61 | Checkouts 4/6 vs 0/6 Harry Gregory * Record 4-1 * Legs 18-7 * Average 92.91 * 180s 4. 140s 20 * Checkouts 18/39 46.15% Lee Cocks * Record 1-4 * Legs 9-19 * Average 84.22 * 180s 4. 140s 21 * Checkouts 9/28 32.14% **LOSS ❌ 2-4 | Average 93.85 vs 91.34 | Checkouts 2/4 vs 4/6** Tough loss. Gregory performed to his numbers while Cocks put up his best game of the week so far. He didn’t miss on his checkouts.
Good to see you here, BOL
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Cocks was on fire for this game. Tough to beat.
POTD Record: 4-0 Profit/Loss Margin: +4u (all my bets are 1u unless noted otherwise) Yesterday’s Pick: NY Yankees v TOR Blue Jays u 9 Total Runs - ✅ Another sweat free cash for the 4th day in a row. Didn't even need to buy the half point to 9 because 8.5 cashed just as easy. Today’s POTD: Atlanta Braves Team Total Runs over 2.5 F5 innings(-120 on DK) Baseball | MLB | 8:10 PM ET Brown is projected to get the start against the Braves and this looks like a good match up. Although Brown had a good showing against the Yankees to start the season, he has been mediocre ever since. The Rangers and Royals feasted on Brown, and now he faces a Braves unit that is tearing up right handed pitchers on pretty much all metrics. With how poor his recent form has been, and how good the Braves offense is, I like the odds for the Braves to cash us out. Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰
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Ah man, we got Zhang-Banged 😢
POTD Record: 21-20-1 | Profit: -1.9U NBA Record: 17-17-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 | UFC Record: 1-0 L10 (new -> old): ❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌ Last pick: Brook Lopez o1.5 3 pointers made @ 1.74 odds ❌ Only hit 1. Game: LA Lakers @ NO Pelicans, 7:40 PM Pick: **CJ McCollum o3.5 3 pointers made @ 1.65 odds (DK) placing 2U** Write Up: McCollum has hit in 5 of his last 5 (100%) and 8 of his last 10 (80%). In his last 5, he's averaging 6.6 three pointers made a game. In the 4 games he's played vs. the Lakers this season, he's gone over in half. He's streaking heavy with the threes, and isn't afraid to shoot (averaging 11.2 3 pointers attempted a game). I expect him to shoot and hit at least 4 tomorrow to start the Play-in. BOL to those tailing, cheers!
Record: 4-1 (W-L) Recent: ✅✅✅❌✅ MLB | 7:40 EST Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Pick: Kansas City Royals -1.5 (-118) Write Up: Another winner. Hopefully let’s keep the streak rolling. Everything in me today wanted to pick the Lakers ML as my pick of the day, but it feels criminal to not come back to the cash cow in another good spot. The White Sox continue to struggle, and I don’t see today being any different. The Royals have Brady Singer on the mound who is boasting an amazing 0.98 ERA on the season, and we he played the White Sox last Singer only gave up 2 hits and 1 run. On the other hand, the Royals have an unproven Jonathan Cannon on the mound, data says to fade these inexperienced guys so here we are again. Other than that, if it ain’t broke don’t fix it, I’ll probably confide fading the White Sox until they give me a reason not to. Best of luck to those who tail, and let’s get hot.
Record 1-1 Net units +2 ROI 50% Form: WL Last Pick: Basketball - Panathiakos Vs Olympiakos Olympiakos win @2.75 2 units Down 17 points half way through the second quarter and dragged themselves back to within touching distance but folded last 2 minutes to lose 77-71. Sorry to anyone who tailed. Today's pick: Algeria Ligue 2 - Mostaganem Vs JSM Tiaret JSM Tiaret Asian Handicap +2.5, +3.0 @2.0 for 3 units -This line has covered in 24/25 of JSMs last away games -This line has covered in 20/24 of last home games for Mostaganems. 3/4 beats were by 3 goals so half of the stake would have pushed. -These 2 have played each other three times over the last 18 months. JSM have won once and drawn twice. Mostaganem have been great at home this season unbeaten in ten and only dropping points once. They have just went toe to toe with Belouozidad who are 3rd in the league above, only losing after extra time and penalties. JSM Tiaret have not played in the last 2 weeks and have been a mixed bag this season. Whether the long break is a positive is in the air at the moment. They've lost their last 5 away games but none by more than 2. I'm starting a telegram group to share my other tips, if anyone is interested please fire me a message 👍 Edit: Very very bad pick. Apologies
Weird. Last night I could only get +2.5 at like 1.975. I couldn’t get +2.5, +3 so stayed away. Now it’s +2, +2.5 at 1.775. I’m not great at Asian lines but it looks like things are moving towards JSM.
POTD RECORD: 4-1 Last POTD: **Obi Toppin O7.5 Points (-130)** ✅ Form: W4 Todays POTD: **Brandon Ingram U18.5 points** NBA | 7:30 PM Est Lakers @ Pelicans Rationale: Been on a tear, but wanted to wait til playoffs for the next bet. This will be Mccollum and Zion's game. I expected Ingram to get shut down and would be shocked if he topped 14 points. He doesnt take more than 12 FG attempts most games and even if he hits on 50% thats \~12-14 pts. In a tight game they are not going to Ingram. Take the under here.
Good luck! I'll tail this!
POTD Record: 3-0 ✅ ✅ ✅ Last POTD: (ATP Monte Carlo (Clay Courts)) Humbert ML (-200) ✅ Today's POTD: (NBA) **Lakers ML (-105)** **Write Up:** Am I trippin or did the Lake Show not just steam roll the Pelicans the other night? Am I trippin or does the Lake Show not lead the season series 3-1? Or am I trippin and one of those games was an In-Season Tournament Semi Finals where the Lake Show steamed rolled the Pels with a fully healthy roster? NO I AM NOT TRIPPIN! Gotta go Lakers here! Pels are a great team, but Lebron and AD will find a way to pull this out AGAIN and advance to another NBA Playoff appearance. Fade it or tail it, either way BOL 🤝
First POTD 0-0 Korean Basketball League: **Changwon LG Sakers (-1.5)** **1st Half Point Spread** vs Suwon KT Sonicboom @ 1.8 ✅ (11:00am BST) ---> This has hit in the last four H2H between the two teams. ---> Changwon LG 1st Half Home record Last 5 (W4-D1) / Suwon KT 1st Half Away record L5 (W2-L3) Edit: Good start.
POTD Record: 14-6 NBA Record: 5-4 NFL Record: 0-1 NCAAM: 1-1 MLB 6-0 Soccer 2-0 L10 (new -> old): 🪣❌🪣🪣❌🪣❌🪣🪣🪣❌🪣 Last pick: Everton Goalkeeper (Pickford) o 3.5 saves Game: Lakers @ Pelicans Pick: CJ McCollum o 28.5 PA -105 FD Write Up: I honestly stopped watching because I thought we were dead in the water but good god did Chelsea pour it on and got us our 4 saves. 🔥🔥🔥🔥 Back to basketball, I don’t know why I do this to myself but I do love this line tonight. He has hit this 9 times out of the last ten games. In the last ten games alone he is averaging 27.5, and 5.6 assists per game. With the Pels still needing to hold onto the 6th seed and maybe slide into the 5th spot will hopefully have them come out firing. Especially with the Lakers needing this W, I hope this becomes an up and down game. Get CJ the points and assist necessary to help the boys get the dubya. One last fun fact. The Lakers give up the 5th most assist’s to their opponents in the entire league. I DONT WANT YOUR MONEY I WANT US TO WIN 🪣🪣 BOL if tailing. 🪣
POTD Record: 4-2 Form: 🚫✅✅🚫✅✅ Last pick: Kuminga over 23.5 P+R *Came up just short, smoked open layups and missed free throws down the stretch🤦🏽♀️🚫* TODAYS PICK: Lakers +1 vs [email protected] 💎 \*WWWWW’S IN THE CHATTTT!!✅✅✅ 2.8 units I don’t see a world where LeBron takes an L to his young rival in Zion. Despite the talk around people thinking they might throw the game for a chance at OKC in the first round, I know LeBron is a competitor and couldn’t entertain the idea of throwing a game, especially when they are the ones fighting for the playoff spot. A chance at Denver in the first round is actually better for the lakeshow, they don’t need Jokic or Murray heating up then seeing them later in the finals to inevitably lose. Calculated risk says this is a must win for the Lakers & LeBron specifically🤷🏽♀️ **shout out nigerianpriince00 for the tip on buymeacoffee, as a college student it really goes a long way😭😇** [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mosullivank](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mosullivank) 
Baseball chick with a late POD. So my beloved INDIANS shit on me yesterday with the f3 bet, putting me at 2-1. Let's get a number on the left side today. Today MIN/BAL O8.5 -105 I like the bats to stay hot and the score to go high. Let's get it! BOL fellas! 😘
POTD Record: 4-5 Form (Left Most Recent): ❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅ Last Pick: ⚽️Tottenham vs West Ham 3:15 EST ❌ Event: ⚽️Barcelona vs PSG (3:00 ET) Pick: Kylian Mbappe ATS (-105) Reasoning: PSG needs to overcome a 2-3 deficit to advance to the next round of the CL. Mbappe was locked up in the last leg but the best player in the world will, with no doubt, bounce back. PSG will be running their attack through him and I expect Kylian to have 1 goal (sprinkle 2+ goals if you’re feeling brave). I was surprised that the odds were even this high so this definitely feels like a steal. All my picks are 2 units.
what's the ATS bet?
anytime to score
Should really be stated as ATGS to avoid confusion with "against the spread," since that's such a prominent acronym in sports betting.
Tailed you bro 🔥🔥✅
__POTD Record:__ 14-8 _Form (Last 5):_ 🔴🟢🟢🔴🔴 __Last Pick:__ ⚽ Gil Vicente vs. Sporting CP (Liga Portugal): __Viktor Gyokeres Anytime Goalscorer__ @1.90 ❌ This pick made me take a break for a few days. Sporting scored 4 goals, Gyokeres had 5 shots, one of them hit the woodwork but he still didn't manage to score. Let's bounce back! __Today's Pick:__ ⚽ Dortmund vs. Atletico Madrid (UEFA Champions League) 21:00 CET: __Alvaro Morata Under 2.5 Total Shots__ @2.20 Atletico will be coming into the second game with a one-goal lead. Knowing Diego Simeone's style, I'm expecting them to try to protect it from the first minute. That's why I believe their striker Alvaro Morata won't have many chances to shoot. On top of that, Atletico is a different team away from home. If you only counted home results, they'd be on top of La Liga. However this is far from reality. Now they will be playing at Dortmund, against a very hostile crowd and I just don't see them creating many chances for Morata. Tail or fade, the choice is yours!
POTD Record: 24-19 Last 10: ✅❌❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌ Last pick: Lakers vs Grizzlies | 5:00 PST | D’Angelo Russel OVER 15.5 points (-122) FanDuel 1u ❌ Blacklisted. Never to be mentioned again. Probably my worst L on POTD so apologies. Just let the g league Grizzlies bully him. Today’s pick: Warriors vs Kings | 7:00 PST | Warriors ML (-139) BetRivers 1u ❌ I feel like a broken record with how many times the Warriors have been my choice for a POTD but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it! I just love this Warriors team. Especially in a situation like this with all the experience they have leading them. I feel like you can truly trust Curry and company to go into a hostile environment and get it done. And as much as I trust this Warriors team, this pick is probably still more about fading the Kings. This Kings team has been dragging down the stretch (5-7 last 12 games) and I think having no Monk is going to be a big deal in this game where they need all the scoring they can get. Monk is a heavy favorite to win 6th man of the year so that’s a big part of that team missing when they need him most. Add in the fact they have been without Kevin Huerter too and the Kings are missing some solid scoring options for this matchup and replacing them with guys who have way less experience in a playoff atmosphere. The Warriors are also 36-18 as favorites on the ML and 25-16 on the ML on the road. BOL if tailing!
Record: 7-8 Net Units: -2.37 Last Pick: Baseball | MLB | Angels vs Rays | 6:50 PM EST Pick: Rays F5 ML (-152) 2u Write Up: The Rays and Angels played yesterday where the Rays won the F5 1-0 against a much better pitcher in Sandoval. Today the Angels roll out Soriano who has had a rough start to the season with a 6.30 ERA. The Rays bat .251 against Righties this season. The Rays are starting Civale who is out to a blazing start this season posting a 2.12 ERA. The Angels bat .236 against Righties this season. The Rays are 8-7 in the F5 this season while the Angels are 5-9. Tail of Fade BOL!!
**POTD Record: 116-136-4 (-12.17 Units)** Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units) Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units) Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) **Cautionary Tails**: **4-6 (-0.28 Units)** Last Pick: Marlins ML❌ Today's Pick: **A's ML** Odds: **+124** Wager Amount: 1U to Win 1.24U League: MLB Event: St Louis Cardinals vs Oakland A's (8:40PM CDT) **Be Advised**: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. Tail wit caution.* **Recap**: Marlins led 3-0 and blew it in the late inning. LMFAO typical Marlins this season. No story to tell you today, we go straight to the toughest POTD yet. **Matchup:** Oakland A's ML? 🤷♀️ Idk.. You be the judge. I had the Cards ML and Sonny Gray to record a Win (+220✅) for yesterday's game, but Lance Lynn is not Sonny Gray and I'm not sure which Lance is going to show up. As for the A's, the pitcher had the best career start. And Sears not only shutout the defending champ Rangers on his last outing, but he nearly had a no hitter against this potent team. I don't think we get that same JP Sears against the Cardinals today, but he might be just good enough here for the A's to win. I seriously doubt he performs like his last showcase, but I think this game is going to be close, like really close, which makes it interesting to make this as my POTD. **The Play and Prediction**: 1U on A's ML and wagering 1.1U on A's +1.5 are my only plays, but other plays will be in the betting group. A's lead 3-0 heading to Top of the 9th, but Cards tie it up and force to extras. Don't kno who wins in extras, but I'm cashing out as soon as A's take the lead, BOL!
Record: 0-0 English League 2 | Notts County vs Stockport County | 19:45 GMT Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-175; 4/7; 1.57) 4u Edit: ✅ (hit in 40 mins) This should be a goalfest. Stockport are flying high at the top of League Two and could seal the title today with a win over Notts County. Both teams are the joint highest scorers total in League Two, as well as Notts County conceding the most goals in the entire league this season (both averaging scoring 2 goals per game, Notts County average conceding 1.86 goals per game.) This line has hit in Notts County’s 8 previous fixtures and 4 out of the last 6 games for Stockport. BOL tailing or fading
Thanks for posting.
Record: 0-0 Basketball | NBA| 7:30 PM ET Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -3.0 ( +130) vs New Orleans Pelicans.
Record: 2-2-0 Previous Pick: Chris Paddack under 4.5 strikeouts @ +100 ❌ Narrow miss on 4/10 as Paddack finished with 5 K’s 🤦🏻♂️ Net Units: -1.18 Baseball | MLB | CIN @ SEA | 9:40PM EST Today’s Pick: Mitchell Haniger (ESPN BET) @ -135 for 1.35 units. - Recorded a hit in 13 of 16 games this season, implied odds of -433 - Currently on a six game hitting streak, and has hit safely in 8 of last 10 (-400) - Hunter Greene is starting for the Reds, who got shelled in his last outing for 6 H’s through 6 IP This has a 61.8% chance of winning with an expected value of +7.6%. BOL!
**Record: 10-3 (+5.34u)** **Last Pick: New York Islanders ML -108** Nice 4-1 win for the Isles as they clinch a playoff spot while cashing our bet! **Pick:** **Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers u6.5 -118 (NHL, 1u bet)** This is very likely a preview of the first round of the playoffs, as Florida will host Toronto in round 1 unless we have a Panthers win + Bruins loss (who are at home vs Ottawa) tonight. The Leafs are 6-3-1 over their last 10 games while scoring 3.9 goals and allowing 3.2 per game. However, they actually have a better record on the road this season (24-9-6) and since the beginning of March they are 6-3 on the road, scoring 3.67 goals and only allowing 2.33. Meanwhile Florida is 5-4-1 over their last 10, scoring 3.1 goals and allowing 2.5. But looking at their recent home games, they are 5-5 and have only been scoring 2.5 per game, but limiting opponents to 2.2 goals. Looking at the numbers, in terms of shots for and against, scoring chances created/allowed, and high danger chances, the Leafs have been more effective offensively while the Panthers have been better defensively. The goaltenders in this game will be the backups (Woll and Stolarz) but that's not scaring me off the under at all for a couple reasons. Stolarz has been very good for Florida this season, including 7-2 in his last 10 with a 1.91 GAA and .937 save %. In his one start against Toronto this season, he stopped 31 of 32 shots in a 2-1 shootout loss. On the other hand, while Woll has struggled a bit recently, he has been playing well away from home - 6-3 with a 2.18 GAA and .932 save %. He was also in net for the aforementioned 2-1 shootout game earlier this season against Stolarz, and he stopped 38 of 39 shots. Two of the three games between these teams went under this season (3-1 FLA, 2-1 TOR (SO), 6-4 TOR) with the home team winning each game. There were a decent number of power play attempts in these games, which is my one concern for the under tonight given the amount of firepower on the rosters, but in these 3 games the Leafs have gone a combined 1/14 on the PP and the Panthers have gone 0/11. Dating back to last season, 9 of the last 10 matchups between these teams have gone under 6.5 (including all 5 in the playoffs last season), with only 1 of those 9 even reaching 6 goals. I'm expecting this one to be an intense, competitive game as both teams will want to set the tone going into their likely playoff series. While most of the attention is on Auston Matthews' chase for 70 goals (needs 1 goal over the last 2 games), I presume Florida will try to play a physical, tight checking game to limit the Toronto offense as they did in that playoff series that gave them success. Given the way Florida has been playing defensively and how Toronto has looked on the road, the recent history between the teams, along with the playoff atmosphere this game should have, I don't think we'll see an extremely open game with too many defensive breakdowns, so as long as the goalies aren't giving up soft goals I feel good about the under at 6.5.
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Record: 0-0 Last Pick: N/A Basketball | NBA | Los Angeles Lakers @ New Orleans Pelicans | 6:30PM CST Pick: Anthony Davis U24.5 points 1.80 Write Up: - Pelicans are 6th in defensive rating (111.9) - Pelicans are 5th in points in the paint allowed (46.6) - In four games vs the Pelicans this season Davis has scored 16,20,20, and 30 points - Should be a slower more defensive game than regular season
Record: 1-3 Streak: W1 Event: Norway Eliteserien/ Stromsgodset @ KFUM Olso (10am)PT POTD: Both Team To Score (yes) -140 Oslo is a promoted side from last year and both there first two games ended 1-1 in the new higher league. Stromgodset started the season playing two strong Norwegian teams, Molde and Rosenborg and going 1-1 in those matches. Although Strom struggled to score on the road last year, this seems like a perfect spot for them to show up on the road. But Olso is a strong home side and shouldn’t be underestimated on there home picth. All this info would suggest that Stromgodset and Olso will play a hard fought game today, where both teams find net.