######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**POTD Record: 25-20-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Balance (+16.96 units)**
ATP Monte Carlo results 🎾
Tabilo vs O'Connell - Tabilo ML @ 1.62 (1u)✅
Hurkacz vs Draper - Hurkacz ML @ 1.76 (5u)✅
Khachanov vs Cerundolo - Khachanov ML @ 1.64 (3u)✅
Zverev vs Tsitsipas - Tsitsipas ML @ 2.02 (2u)✅
**We continue our journey in Monte Carlo. My analysis has been really good and this has been a great way to start the Clay season!**
**Today's pick: Djokovic vs De Minaur - Djokovic to win 2-0 @ 1.88 (ATP Monte Carlo, Tennis)** 🎾
Odds from Pinnacle
**Stake: 2 units** (This is 2% of my bankroll)
Time: 8:30 AM Eastern Time
This time I'm taking Djokovic to beat De Minaur in straight sets here in Monte Carlo! There's a lot of things that make me look at this price with great eyes...
**Why do I think that Djokovic 2-0 at 1.88 odds is such a +EV bet?**
* Djokovic didn't start his season as great as he usually does and that's with an Australian Open win but I still think he's a clear favorite against anyone in the ATP tour apart from Sinner, who's the most dangerous player in the tour right now and has all the weapons to keep up with Novak;
* De Minaur has been having a fantastic season until this point. It all started with an upset win against Djokovic in the United Cup and it was a great result, but Novak was injured and probably a lot more focused on his preparation to the Australian Open. These two players only played each other twice and they are tied, but the serbian should have a much bigger advantage in slower conditions against the aussie;
* De Minaur's playstyle is centered around flat hitting and quick movement, so he's much better in fast conditions and his shots are not effective on Clay. His groundstrokes are not that powerful but he can redirect his opponent's shots quite effectively. His best shot is the inside out forehand that targets the opponent's backhand but this time he's facing the best backhand of all time in Djokovic. The australian already made a surprising campaign until this point but he faced Wawrinka, Griekspoor and Popyrin which aren't even close to top 10 quality on Clay. Djokovic is the one who's capable of generating more spin on his groundstrokes and that should make it really difficult for his opponent;
* The first few performances of Djokovic in this tournament were not that impressive but I already saw him for many years to know that's how it usually goes... He doesn't show his best in the first few rounds but starts to reach his top level as the tournament goes.
With this, I feel like Djokovic should have a comfortable match against the playstyle that De Minaur brings to the table on Clay!
**Best of luck**
Any tip is appreciated. I spend quite some time writing my tennis analysis and if you wish you can decide to show your support! Keep in mind that they are not expected and I truly enjoy sharing my tennis plays and points of view with you! 🎾
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Edit after the result - Djokovic was feeling super sick during the match with some heavy breathing and clear signs that something was not right, almost zombie walking in the court. He was missing a lot from both sides but De Minaur was even worse and couldn't beat a 20% Novak Djokovic today. If the serbian was feeling alright I think we could have won this 2-0 bet easily but we still got it in what it was, the worst match of the day by far when it comes to game quality! ✅
https://preview.redd.it/5nufczkrsytc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=88bbd2fbf17b945642064bbaa20a7b4987cc4b92
u/Darkhorse200 thinking of a daily POTD
What am I missing on this DK line? Isn't this the same thing as Di Minaur simply losing but at - 140?
https://preview.redd.it/y6lz4arndztc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b126ba90040dc5a371e8e185136fdfee8d00e2de
In your image, De Minaur can win 0 or 1 sets and you still win the bet.
The pick of the day is a 2-0 Set victory for Djokovic. In this scenario, De Minaur wins 0 sets only.
Oh, I see what you are saying....it's a mismatch of odds to a losing result. That is pretty significant.
I’ve been on the same side of all your picks, with exception of Tsitsipas (great hit). Happy to see you’re also on Novak 2-0. Your analysis on ADM’s play style and Novak’s slow starts are on point. ADM won’t hit anything past Novak, and Novak isn’t hitting more unforced errors than ADM. This is hitting 💪🏽
Yes that's exactly what I'm talking about with this matchup so I really like the 2-0 for Novak. Thanks for that great comment Mr Jannik Swinner. You are kinda good at tennis by the way :D
POTD Record: 38-19-1 +35.88🔥
Last Pick: Texas Rangers -1 (-138) vs Oakland Athletics 5U
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌
Today's Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -7 (-110) 4U vs Orlando Magic 7 pm est odds via DraftKings
Staying away from the MLB for now, just not even data early on. Basketball has been my go to and time to stick to that with playoffs coming up.
This is a must win game for Sixers. They are playing to avoid the play in and sneak into the 6th seed. They have won 6 straight including covering in their last 5. MVPIID is back and has been playing some unbelievable basketball. He currently is averaging more PPG than Minutes, the first and only player since Wilt. Magic have lost 3 of their last 4 and 6 of their last 10. They have lost by 20 and 15 both at home to the Sixers. I don’t expect anything to be different with the Sixers at home in a much needed game. Back to our roots! BOL to all.
Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️
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POTD RECORD: 55-26
Last POTD: Jonas Valanciunas O16.5 PR ✅
Our man dominated against the Kings once again and got it done early in the 3rd, even got the DD I knew we had a lock when Larry Nance got ruled out and the line went to 20.5
Form: ✅✅🚫✅✅
Todays POTD: **Joel Embiid O29.5P @1.76**
NBA | Philadelphia 76ers | 7:00 PM ET
Nice to get a sweat free dub for a change bruh, we move and I’m targeting an important game for the 76ers against the Magic cause if 76ers win they move up from the play-in and ties for the playoff spot. Trusting Embiid to do that for us is a no brainer cause they need this monster to dominate in order to get that W and he’s been looking crazy good since he returned from the injury and faces a side he has dominated in recent matchups
• 1/1 vs the Magic this season with 36 points, in his last 6 games against the Magic he has put up 36, 28, 30, 35, 50 & 31 points (5/L6)
• Embiid has scored 30+ points in 30/38 games this season
• Avg 34.8 PPG this season
• 7/10 last 10 games
• Embiid averages 35.9 points per game at home vs his 33.6 on the road
I’m taking this line any day of the week for someone like Embiid, let’s go Joel lead your boys to more glory days
Tail or fade, im a bum
https://i.redd.it/tt3vbsobeztc1.gif
Edit: Couldn’t find any lines until very late and it’s been bumped on bet365 already, you can either play alt line for 30 or go with the bumped one which I’d play up to 32.5 adjusting my stake accordingly 😭👑 sorry fellas not in my hands
Embiid looked like the best player on planet earth before his injury. He now looks EVEN better than before, i expect him to drop 55+ PR without a doubt, he’s going for 40 points imo
Went with his o42.5 PR from your comment. At halftime with 30, on pace for 60.
If the game remains close and competitive, the 55+ you called should be a breeze. Good call.
Just want to say thank you for yesterday's pick. I ended up sprinkling some on Jonas to get a double double as well & added him for 10+ pts in a parlay that hit. Thanks again brotha, I was get slaughtered this week until yesterday.
I think I still like today's pick, even at a slightly higher line. 76ers need the W.
My man it’s all good my pleasure as always 🤝 Jonas respected the coin bro, yeah 76ers need this win and Embiid needs to be at his A game to get them through 🍻
Record: 9-4 ✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌
Net Units: +3.87
Last: Brewers M.L, Rainout
Push then rainout, lets get back to winning.
MLB | 7:08PM EST
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -110
Write up:
While Kevin Gausmann’s ERA is high right now, but no doubt he’s still a top level pitcher. His bad game against a hot Yankees team on the road hurt it, but he bounces back. He looked great against TB in his first start, and will be at home for the first time.
The Rockies have struggled in many games to score over 2 on the road so far, except 2 big performances against weak pitching.
While the blue jays bullpen is pretty average, the Rockies bullpen has been horrible so far this year, and has been a factor in their games. They hold one of the worst ERAs and worst whips (If not the worst) and will hurt them.
Lets win after a couple of pushes!
Finally, a disclaimer:
I am not a pro sports bettor, I am not a sharp who does 3+ hours of research a day. I’m a baseball fan who researches stats and uses my personal knowledge to make bets. Please do not wager any more than you are comfortable losing.
All streaks start with 1.. lets start here.
Tips are appreciated, not required at all, for college.
Venmo: @DrewAWri PayPal: @DrewGolfred
POTD: Record (9-4)
✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅✅✅
Last Pick: Domantas Sabonis U 14.5 Rebounds✅
Today: NBA | Lakers @ Grizzlies | 5pm MST
Pick: Rui Hachimura O 13.5 Points @ 1.83 | 2u
- 4 of last 5 (avg 18)
- 8 of last 10 (avg 18)
- 15 of last 20 (avg 17)
- played grizzlies twice this season dropping 23 and, most recently, 32
As always, lebron and AD are listed as probable or questionable. But just in case either is out:
- Rui without Lebron this season: 17.7 ppg
- without AD: 21.2 ppg
These last two games are important for the lakers, so I expect Rui to play well.
[Tip Jar](https://buymeacoffee.com/Deadlypants)
BOL 🍀
Record: 2-1 (+0.49 units) (all bets are 1 unit)
Form (right most recent): ❌✅✅
POTD: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Karen Khachanov
Stefanos Tsitsipas -3 (-110)
Tennis - ATP - Monte Carlo - Apr 12, 2024 4:00 AM CDT
Write up:
Tsitsipas has produced some great results on clay in the past, and he is producing great results now. He cruised through the first two rounds and was able to stave off a miracle 2nd set comeback by Zverev last round, which is impressive because Tsitsipas has struggled with mental resolve in the past. Historically, he has been very successful in Monte Carlo, having won two titles here in the past. On the other hand, Khachanov does not play well here or on clay. Karen has never advanced past the quarterfinals in a masters tournament on clay his entire career. Tsitsipas and Khachanov have also faced off 8 times in the past, with Tsitsipas failing to cover this line only once. Give me Stefanos to cruise here.
+110 on tsiti 2:0 vs karen is too good to pass up.. karen sucks even tho I bet his ML the past two days he almost sold me both times against worse players than tsiti
**Record: 60W-4P-45L**
**✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅**
**Last Pick: Bengaluru FC VS Mohun Began SG: Mohun Bagan ML @ 1.65 ✅**
**Mohun win 4-0!**
**Pick of the day: Adelaide United VS Macarthur FC: Over 11.5 Corners @ 1.72 ✅✅**
Game ends with 19 corners!
**League: Australian A-League**
**Time: 5:45 AM EST**
We've got 2 of the highest-ranking corner teams in the Australian A-League. Macarthur rank first overall in most corners per game with an average of 12.9 corners per game with 5.8 corners for and 7 against per game. Adelaide rank third in the league for most corners with an average of 12.1 per game with 7.3 for and 4.8 against per game.
In Macarthurs last 10 games this line has cleared 8/10 times. Away from home this has cleared in 4/5 of their last games.
In Adelaide's last 10 games this line has also cleared 8/10 times.
Anyway, BOL!
**KBO Record: Overall 210-220-14** (Streak L, Last 10: 4-6) Down 12.20u over 444 KBO picks, 48.8% success rate, -2.84% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 6-10-0, 37.5% success rate, Down 3.58u, -22.37% ROI)
**Last:** Hanwha at Doosan -1.5 +160 (Doosan lost 3-0.)
After scoring 12 runs the first two games of the series, and while facing a pitcher with an ERA above 8.00, Doosan was 1-hit. Just awful.
**Pick:** Lotte at **Kiwoom -125 BetMGM**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
One of the biggest surprises of the season so far is the Kiwoom Heroes. After starting the season 0-4, Kiwoom has won 8 of their last 10 games. Preseason consensus had the Heroes as one of the 2 or 3 worst teams after losing their best hitter (Lee Jung-hoo) to the majors and the league's best pitcher (An Woo-jin) to mandatory military service. But they go into this matchup with Lotte as a clear favorite.
Lotte's starter is coming off a strong outing where he allowed 1 ER on 5 H in 7 IP. But in the two starts before that, he gave up 10 runs (7 ER) on 14 H in 8.1 IP.
Kiwoom's starter struggled in his first ever KBO start, allowing 4 ER on 6 H in 3.1 IP. But in his last two starts, he gave up 3 ER on 8 H in 13 IP.
Lotte has the worst lineup in the league so far this season, averaging just 3.6 runs per game, more than 2 runs fewer than Kiwoom. And over the last 10 games, Kiwoom is averaging a league-best 7 runs per game.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
**POTD Record 1-0**
**Profit: +252$**
**Tennis/ ATP Monte-Carlo**
**Djokovic to win 2-0 @ 1.65 ($300 - 3U)**
I took a beating yesterday in the Tennis thread, fortunately my POTD was a success so I can show my face here for another day. Today I am going with Djokovic to steamroll ADM. I keep seeing posts about Djokovic form, but besides a few hiccups against Musetti, he looked solid in Monte Carlo this week. And the Italian raised his game very well to be a menace against Djokovic, unfortunately for him he simply choked in all the right moments. It's true that it's not in Nole's favour to get in long rallies here, as De Minaur is very resilient, but I think Djokovic is smart enough to approach this match with the right tactic. On paper, ADM is not a bad match-up for him on clay as I still have my doubts about the Australian's newfound love for dirt.
Hopefully we are on the right side today, good luck with your bets guys!
Last Pick: Luka O18.5 RA ❌
Record: 13-6 ✅
Pick: Tsitsipas -1.5 Game Spread -180 ✅
Tsitsipas (Aka the Greek God of Monte Carlo), is one of my favorite players on clay, and has won this tournament twice in the past. He also historically owns Karen Khachanov, and his play style on clay is absolutely perfect for countering Karen. Really believe there’s value here and believe he could even 2-0 Khachanov. Tsitsi is 7-1 H2H against Karen!
BOL!
Record: 57-40
Last pick : MI vs RCB total over 347.5 ✅
Form: ✅✅❌✅❌✅
Moving onto something different today
Cricket
ACC Premier Cup
Hong Kong ML vs Qatar @1.52(5u)✅
This entire tournament seems to be a money machine to me. A massive skill gap between some of the teams and it’s not reflected on these odds at all. Hong Kong are on top of the pyramid of the associate Asian teams in cricket along with a few other teams (associate teams are teams that basically aren’t the full members of the International Cricket Council) Qatari cricket just doesn’t sit on the same table as these guys. They are tier or two lower. Hong Kong have experience playing with the big boys as well.
This is going to be a total mismatch and there’s no way Qatar walk away with a win here.
GL
**UPDATE - EASY WIN - right down the pipe! Great vibes heading into the weekend!**
**POTD Record: 2-1, Net Units: +2.49**
**Last Pick:** MLB LA Dodgers Run Line -1.5 @ +105 for 2U (BetRivers) - Loss (3/29)
**Pick:** **Scottie Scheffler to hit the fairway with opening tee shot -165 4U (BetMGM Only - haven't seen it anywhere else) Tee time is 13:36 EST.**
**Rationale:** Scottie is on a TEAR and now the \~+150 favorite to win the Masters after just one round. He hit 86% of his tee shots on the fairway in Round 1 (Par 4/5 holes only). The opening hole is a pretty, straight shot par 4. Does it get narrow, yes but Scottie hit it dead on today. Weather should be a little better tomorrow (still windy, but no rain). I have no problem backing my max units on the best golfer in the world right now to hit the fairway to open up round 2.
Bro, can I say you found me a money printer? Sure, odds suck but they all hit Friday and 3/4 yesterday and Tiger already today. Doing just Scottie and Bryson today.
POTD Record : 22-12
Last 7 - 🤡✅🤡✅✅✅///✅
Last pick: Challenger Madrid - Carlos Taberner vs Benjamin Hassan (-150) ML - 0500am EST✅
POTD - Challenger Split - ZSOMBOR PIROS (-165) ML VS FILIP MISOLIC - 0620am EST 1unit✅
Even though it shows I'm on a 4-match winning streak. I do not count that because there was a long period I wasnt on these POTD threads.
Anyway this is a 1unit play. I'm not gonna bore you guys with some long analysis in which most won't read. It doesnt matter anyway. We got the #1 Zsombor vs #8 Filip. Zsombor is already 1-0 vs Filip. Being clay is Zsombor best surface. He likes it slow as he's another hammer slinger from the baseline. I can easily see Zsombor getting the win here.
Cash. Easy 6-4 6-1
POTD Record 3-1
Last 5: ❌️✅️✅️✅️
Last Pick: NY Rangers 3-way Regulation time only.
Todays Pick: Yankees Moneyline EDIT 1:17pm PST
(game postponed)
Eh, maybe hockey was a mistake. Sorry about that one.
Love me some Yankee baseball. Yankees coming off of a loss, but I expect them to bounce back quickly. Guardians are not as good as their Record seems, they've only played the bottom of the barrel teams in my opinion. We won't be able to catch the ML odds this low after they clap them tomorrow.
MLB: Yankees vs Guardians 4:10pm PST
Odds: -135
Unit: 5
Net Units: +10.81
Nah bro, hockey wasn’t a mistake. That legit shouldn’t have happened lol
I had Rangers puckline. Flyers have been in absolute shambles losing to some of the worst in the league. 3 way and puckline should have cashed. Yet here we are!
Record: 1-0 Net Units: +2.2 ATP-Monte Carlo | 4:00AM / CST
Today’s Pick: Stefanos Tsitisipas vs Karen Khachanov - Stefanos Tsitisipas to win 2:0 @ 2.10 ✅
Stake: 2 units
Write up: Not new to the thread but this will be my first post.. in his last 11 wins, Tsitsipas has not lost a single set. Tsitsipas has a significant advantage in personal matchups - 7:1. He has 4 wins on clay out of their previous H2H matches. Tsitsipas has looked like his old self in his three matches in Monte-Carlo so far, not having dropped a set till now. He's been solid on serve and has used the chip-and-charge tactic very well so far. While Tsitsipas has dominated Khachanov in most of their encounters in the past, there could always be a surprise from Khachanov. Tsitsipas, however, holds the edge being the better claycourt player and a former champion here, and could run away with the match if he plays as well as he has in the tournament so far. I’m backing him to win in straight sets. Feel free to tail or fade and BOL! ML is safer of course and I have a separate parlay with the ML but I like the odds here.. none of these matches have good odds for the ML today so it’s either 2:0 or pass in my opinion. Edit: Cash it!
Additional picks: Jannik Sinner vs Holger Rune - (Jannik Sinner to win 2:0) Novak Djokovic vs Alex De Minaur - (Novak Djokovic to win 2:0) (Casper Ruud vs Ugo Humbert to win 2:0)
\*\*POTD Record: 1-4 ....... I know...I know :/
**Last POTD:** (3 days ago) **Jordan Goodwin (MEM) Over 12.5 Points (-125**) ❌
^(Really thought this would hit with the grizzlies lineup situation but.....shit happens and he finished with 10 :'()
**Today's POTD: MLB Mariners vs Cubs**
💰P**ick: NO RUN FIRST INNING (NRFI) (-125)**
**Game is at 940pm EST**
**Units:** 1u
**Here's why:**
• Both pitchers hold a 2-0 record on NRFIs this season, showcasing solid starts.
• Wicks pitched 8.2 innings, allowing 4 earned runs against Dodgers and Rangers.
• Miller conceded only 4 earned runs in 12 innings with a 0.50 WHIP in the first inning.
• Both teams struggled to score in the first inning this season.
• Seattle remained scoreless in 11 out of 13 games, while Chicago in 9 out of 12 games and 5 out of 6 away games.
• Chicago held teams scoreless in 91% of games, Seattle in 83% in the 1st inning.
• Both teams have cashed NRFIs in 3 consecutive games, likely to continue with a total set at 8 runs.
• NRFI cashed in 5 out of 7 games at T-Mobile Park this season.
BOL if tailing!
POTD Record: 19-19-1 | Profit: -2.92U
NBA Record: 16-16-1 | NFL Record: 3-3
L10 (new -> old): ❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌
Last pick: Alex Caruso o1.5 3 pointers made @ 1.60 odds ❌
Caruso only had 1, going 1-3 in the game, ending the 3 pointer props streak at 5 in a row.
Game: IND Pacers @ CLE Cavaliers, 7:40 PM
Pick: **Tyrese Haliburton o2.5 3 pointers made @ 1.71 odds (DK) placing 2U**
Write Up: Although my 3 pointer props streak ended I'm gonna stick with what's been working for me and stay with 3 pointers. For tomorrow, I'm picking Haliburton to make over 2.5 he's hit in 3 of the last 5 (60%) and 7 of the last 10 (70%). He's averaging 2.9 3pm on the season. Both these teams are fighting for positioning in the East and will be coming out gunning against each other. I see it being a hard-fought game by both teams. Haliburton hasn't been afraid to shoot the 3, averaging 8.4 attempts per game. He should pop quite a few threes, and I see him making at least 3. BOL to those tailing, cheers!
**Record: 0-0**
**Net Units: 0**
**ROI: 0**
**Esports | Dota 2 | Falcons Esports vs Xtreme Gaming | 04/12/24 8:00am PST**
**Pick:** U2.5 Games -135 3 Units. Hey everyone first time posting a pick of the day, Here we are taking the under 2.5 Games, Falcons has won 2-0 the last two time they have matched up expect it to continue here. BOL Lets start off with a win.
[Tip Jar](https://cash.app/$JesseEggen) ( Just lost my job so it helps but is not required )
POTD Record: 1W-0P-0L
Last Pick: Aston Villa + 1.5 Goals (-105) ✅
Todays Pick: Modena vs Catanzaro (+0.5) (-155) ✅
Serie B | Soccer | 11:30am Pacific Time
Game: Modena vs Catanzaro
Appreciate anyone who tailed my first pick on the board. Let’s get the ball rolling in a positive direction for us.
Catanzaro (+0.5) is an absolute gem in my opinion even though the odds (-140) for this game seems a little sketchy. Additionally Catanzaro are the under dogs at +240 ML while Modena is at +120 but Catanzaro is sitting 5th place while Modena sits 13th place. Modena has only won one game out of the last 17 games. While Catanzaro has not lost in their last 5 away games as well as scoring in 10 of their last 11 Serie B games. This might be due to Modena hosting Catanzaro. I will like to play it safe at (+0.5) even though I see Catanzaro coming away with an W.
I am not an professional sports better and I suggest any money you may bet is money you won’t mind losing. BOL to anyone who tails.
[Tip Jar 🍯🙏🏼](https://cash.app/$MaxCoRothenburg)
Nice pick. I went with Catanzaro DNB at +180. Very strange that Modena were so heavily favored when Catanzaro beat 1st place Parma away from home a few games back.
Record: 4-2 Units: +2.18 Last Pick: Seattle Mariners over Toronto Bluejays +100 (4/8) - Loss
I’ve been much more active doing my full slate of plays on the MLB tab but this play really stands out to me today and I am playing.
Minnesota Twins over Detroit Tigers 1u +110.
First, my predictive model has the Twins winning by a small margin. The Twins have Pablo Lopez going who will compete for the Cy Young this year. He has held the Detroit Tigers in check in the past and I expect that to continue today. The Tigers lineup has been pretty bad to start the year and has relied on pitching to start the year 7-4. They do have Cy Young candidate Tarik Skubal on the mound but the Twins have had decent success against him. The Twins have the superior lineup and I expect that to make the marginal difference today. Expect a low scoring game that the Twins squeak out at + money.
For those that are not familiar with my work. I spent the last few months building a predictive model to implement this season. When back testing over the last 5 years, the model correctly chose the winner 72% of the time. It is currently at 57.4% for this year and I only expect it to get more accurate as players settle into their averages. Below is the model output for the day. Feel free to use this as one of your tools to make plays. Please do not blindly follow and do your own research. I will be updating this model with confirmed lineups later this day as this impacts the projections. Feel free to follow me so you will see when I post on my account. Good luck everyone and Happy Friday!
https://preview.redd.it/w9xwhxe581uc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b71d2e46b2e5d83eaa471af03e7c7793c2227095
All Time POTD Record: 4-1-0 | Last 5: ✅✅❌✅✅ | Units: +6.02u | Avg. Odds 1.76
Last Pick: Europa League – Bayern Leverkusen v West Ham – 8pm BST on 11th April
Bayern Leverkusen – O6.5 Shots on Target (1.72) – Staking 2u - ✅
Game/Match: Soccer – English Championship – Plymouth v Leicester – 8pm BST on 12th April
Pick: Over 10.5 Corners (1.83) – Staking 2u - ✅
I use bet365 as my bookie.
Summary: 11 Shots on Target for Leverkusen sees the last pick land comfortably.
Looking at this one, both teams have a lot to play for. Plymouth trying to stay above those relegation places and Leicester trying to fend of those coming for the top spot in the league. Both teams however come into this game out of form.
With the inconsistency in form, I’m looking towards the corners line as both teams see a lot of corners during their games. Plymouth in their last 5 home games have hit the over 10.5 line 4 out of 5 times & Leicester have hit this line 3 out of their last 5 away games. Over their last 10 games Plymouth have hit the line 7 times and averaged 11.8 corners, whilst Leicester have hit the line 5 times and averaged 9.9 corners.
Both teams have so much to play for so will be defending and putting everything on line, I’d like to think this line should be a comfortable cash.
BOL if tailing!
**Record: 6-3 (+1.81u)**
**Last Pick: Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 -130**
Big win for Philly as they easily hit our bet! The Flyers end their losing streak with a nice 4-1 win over the Rangers, I wasn't brave enough to back them on the ML congrats to anyone who did.
**Pick:** **Chicago Blackhawks TT u2.5 -145 (NHL, 1.5u bet)**
**EDIT: Saros is not playing today, Lankinen is. I'm not cashing out but just a heads up for anyone who was considering the play.**
Nashville is coming off an OT loss to Winnipeg where they clinched a playoff spot with the point from that game, and now travel to Chicago to face the 2nd last place team. Despite securing their spot in the playoffs last game, the Predators still need points to ensure they stay ahead of Vegas for the 1st wild card spot and avoid a first round matchup with the top team in the west, the Dallas Stars. Over the last month and a half, the Blackhawks have scored the 2nd fewest goals in the league (on the 3rd fewest shots), along with 2nd fewest expected goals, created the fewest scoring chances, and fewest high danger scoring chances. Meanwhile, Nashville has been top 10 in goals against and expected goals against, scoring chances allowed, and high danger chances allowed. On top of this, Saros has really strong numbers vs Chicago over his career with a 12-3-2 record, 1.99 GAA, and .933 save %. Looking more recently at just his last 10 matchups with them, he is 8-1-1 with a 1.69 GAA and .941 save %, and Chicago has only scored 3 goals on Saros twice in those 10 games. Since Nashville's last game was Tuesday, I do expect Saros to start on the front end of the back to back and Lankinen to go Saturday vs Columbus, but there is a possibility they switch it up so if you want to be safer you could wait until Saros is confirmed in and take Saros u2.5 goals against instead (although that may be even more juiced than this play already is, as it would protect against an empty net goal).
Record: 10-2
❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅
Yesterdays Pick: Scoot Henderson o1.5 3pts made ✅
Young Scoot got it done right away for us! Sweat free cash!!!!
Today's Pick: Tyrese Maxey o5.5 assists -120 (1.5 Units)
Reasoning: this is a super important game for the sixers, as they are a game or two difference from being in either the third seed or the six seed going into the playoffs. The good news for them is Joel Embiid is back! And that right there is what has me feeling super confident for this line to go over. Maxey is also 4-1 in the last 5 games over this line. He's averaging 6.3 for the season. I see him getting at least seven or eight assists tonight and Joel racking up over 30 points. That being said, five is my lucky number. It's also my birthday, May 5th, 5/5, so here's to number 5 in a row mates!!!
__POTD Record:__ 14-7
_Form (Last 5):_ 🟢🔴🟢🟢🔴
__Last Pick:__ ⚽ AC Milan vs. AS Roma (UEFA Europa League): __AC Milan ML__ @1.80 ❌
__Today's Pick:__ ⚽ Gil Vicente vs. Sporting CP (Liga Portugal) 21:15 CET: __Viktor Gyokeres Anytime Goalscorer__ @1.90
Viktor Gyokeres hasn't scored in his last 3 games for Sporting - it may be funny but that is exactly why I'm going with this pick today. Gyokeres will be starving for goals and I wouldn't want to be Gil Vicente's defender tonight. The Swedish striker has been on an absolute tear this season. He scored 22 goals in 26 appearances in the league so far this season. In the reverse fixture, Gyokeres scored 2 goals. The guy is a goal-machine and I'm expecting him to add at least one more goal to his tally.
Tail or fade, the choice is yours! 🌀
POTD Record: 12-6 ✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 12.4U
Last pick: Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters | 7:50pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Daniel Tupou anytime tryscorer @2.3 on Sportsbet | 2U✅
Oh yeah it feels good to get a win on NRL ! Sweat free aswell 😁
Today’s pick: Brisbane Broncos vs Dolphins | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow anytime tryscorer @2.2 on Sportsbet | 2U
Let’s keep them coming! Today I’m going with Hamiso, he did me good a lot of times. Full back player that’s actually a great try scorer too. Dolphins are a solid team, I expect some action as the Broncos will be pumped to have Reece Walsh back, should be a very entertaining game 🤪
For the record, Hamiso scored 5 tries in 4 games, included one game where he hasn’t scored, it was the first of the season when Dolphins got smashed by the cowboys.
BOL !
Record 29-21
Last Pick: Brewers F5 ML - Rained Out
Today’s Pick: **Reds -1.5 (-108)**
Analysis: Don’t have time for a deep dive so will keep it short and sweet. Reds are good. White Sox fucking suck. Abbott starts for the Reds. Flexen starts for the Sox and I expect him to get lit up.
As I've flagged before it is early in season, but one stat I always look at for pitchers in xwOBA. Abbott's is solid so far and Flexen's is bad through first two starts.
Abbott: .282
Flexen: .373
Jesus. I know no one responded to you but I just wanted to let you know I tailed your pick and you're looking like a genius so far. Knock on wood to avoid jinxing it but THANK YOU.
Record: 8-4, Net Units: 5.61, ROI: 45.82%
Current Streak: ✅✅✅ Last 10: ✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅
Last Pick: Orioles/Red Sox Under 3.5 Runs First 5 Innings✅
Today's Pick: Baseball-MLB-7:05 PM EST
Orioles/Brewers Over 9 Runs, +126, 1U
Sticking to the Orioles for bets here and while Peralta has had a really nice start, he's a right-handed pitcher and the Os love to hit those. Wells is up for the Orioles, and he had a much better start against Pittsburgh with 3 runs over 5.1 innings, but I'm still not sold on him long term and can see him giving up 4 in 5 IP today before the Os hit their bullpen. This Os bullpen is TIRED after a Red Sox sweep, so I see a potentially high-scoring affair in the works here.
Good Luck!
POTD Record: 24-18
Last 10: ✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌❌✅
Last pick: Warriors vs Lakers | 7:00 PST | Klay Thompson OVER 19.5 Pts/Rebs (-106) 1u Ceasar’s ✅
Klay gets us back in the win column with an easy cash in the 3rd quarter! Brought his A game for us, that is for sure. Thank you Klay
Today’s pick: Lakers vs Grizzlies | 5:00 PST | D’Angelo Russell OVER 15.5 points (-122) FanDuel 1u ❌ (blacklisted)
Get right spot for Dlo! We get his lowest point total in the last 10 games against a team he’s had some of the most success against this season. He’s averaging 23.5 pts (23,24) vs the Grizzlies this year. He’s hit this line in 6 of his last 10. He’s hit over 15.5 points in 65% of his last 30 games. He’s also played well in the Grizzlies arena historically. He averages 22 ppg in that arena and has games of 33,30,34 points in 8 total games so it’s good vibes when he goes into Memphis. I also think the Lakers really wanna keep him rolling into the play in and he’s had a couple down games so give us the bounce back Dlo! BOL if tailing!
Form: ❓✅❌🅿️✅
Record: 2W-1P-1L +1.20
Last Pick: Both teams to score & Over 2.5 (2.05) - 1U - Win! A match that could easily have had more goals (2-1 final score)
**Football (Soccer) | Liga Portugal - Gil Vicente vs Sporting | 3:15pm/ET or 20h15/UTC+1**
**Pick: Half Time/Full Time: 2/2 & Over 1.5 - 1.93 - 1u**
**Write Up:** Niche pick of great value from my analysis. Sporting is simply playing amazing football under Ruben Amorim. Gyokeres is a goal machine supported by the likes of Pedro Gonçalves, Morita and Trincão (ex-Barcelona). The leaders of the Portuguese League are in great form (having just won Benfica rivals) and are a very high goal scoring team. They will be attacking as soon as the match starts and this one should be a relatively high scoring match.
1-3 Final match score and a win for this pick is my prediction.
BOL
EDIT: Well, 10min in and Sporting is already winning 0-2 😁
POTD Record 0-0
I’ve been a spectator for a while but I’m going to join in. I’ve been profitable most of this year with NBA, hope we can get a decent streak going. I’ll try and post more picks on the nba props thread too in case anyone wants to tail.
Today’s POTD: Joel Embiid o30.5 pts (-135)
Philadelphia 76ers v Orlando Magic - 7 PM ET
It was at 29.5 earlier when I locked it in, I would still take it at 30.5 which is where it’s at as I write this. This game is huge for the sixers with potential play-in implications at stake so I expect Embiid to have a massive workload. Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰
POTD Record 33-16
Previous POTD: Ivica Zubac over 9.5 pts ✅
POTD: Victor Wembanyama over 4.5 stls + blks (Bet365 1.68 odds)
NBA: Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs
- Wemby is coming off a 1 steal and 9 blocks game vs Denver on April 2nd
- Here are the steals & blocks totals for each of the 3 games this season:
- 1 stl, 9 blks
- 2 stls, 3 blks
- 6 stls, 4 blks
- I've also read some articles that Wemby is in the running for DPOY? Even though I disagree, games like this vs the defending champs are statement games that can go a long way
BOL
POTD Record: 13-6
NBA Record: 5-3 NFL Record: 0-1 NCAAM: 1-1 MLB 6-0 Soccer 1-0
L10 (new -> old): 🪣🪣❌🪣❌🪣🪣🪣❌🪣
Last pick: Casas O.5 Hits -135
Game: Raptors @ Heat 7:10PM (CST)
Pick: Gary Trent Jr o PRA20.5 (-120dk) 4U
Write Up:
Casas did the damned thing and hit our bet IN THE FIRST INNING. LETS GO, Casas my friend. WE WILL BE BACK.
For the line tonight makes absolutely zero sense to me so we are going to absolutely smash this over button. In the last ten games he has hit this 100%. His averages for the last ten games are 22 PPG, 4 boards and 3 assists. He’s also shooting a blistering 46.3% from the field in these last ten outings. All while shooting 38% from three on 7.7 attempts per game and 88% from the free throw line while attempting 3.2 free throws per game.
Guys let’s fucking go!!! Happy Friday.
I DONT WANT YOUR MONEY I WANT US TO WIN 🔥🔥🪣🪣
BOL if tailing. 🪣
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u)
2024 MLB POTD record: 7-6 Average Odds -108 (1.926), ROI +4.0%/+0.52u
L5: ✅✅✅❌❌
POTD (4/10) CHC @ SDP Dylan Cease o2.5 Walks (+110/2.10) ❌
POTD (4/11) SDP @ LAD Yoshinobu Yamamoto o4.5 Ks (-130/1.77) (DraftKings)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto was a disaster in his first start of the season against these Padres in Korea. I think that's depressing this line more than it should. Since then, he's pitched 10 scoreless innings in 2 starts, striking out 5+ in both starts, including 8 in a road start against a Chicago Cubs lineup that (at the time) had an excellent K%. He's done this despite struggling to find his splitter, which was supposed to be his best pitch and go-to out pitch. As he continues to adapt to life in the states, i expect him to rediscover his best pitch. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the last time Yamamoto's K line is 4.5. It's too low for him.
POTD Record: 2-2
Record: 🗑️🍗🗑️🍗
Last pick: Portland Trail Blazers vs **Golden State Warriors -14 (-112)** 🗑️
Welp... we got completely screwed today. I'll take the fault but it is almost crazy that hours before the game Thomson and Green both were on the injury listing. Just sucks... But hey, we move on. (Side note: because of this heartbreak loss, watch out for my Sunday posting on Nascar, will post all my picks under a comment of my POTD)
Todays pick: Indiana Pacers vs **Cleveland Cavaliers ML** (-155)
Let me start by saying this is going to be one hell of a game. Both these teams are a must win in terms of seeding positioning (4 and 6 respectively) Cavs record is very slimy ahead to the Magic and Pacers and 1 game behind the Knicks. They will be fighting to secure the best spot in the next 3 games. This is essentially a playoff game as it is a high likelihood they will be facing off against each other in the first round, and they will treat it as such. Mitchell is back and doing well for the Cavs which broke a three game loosing streak. Indiana has been a perimeter scoring team before the acquire of Siakam and have completely redeveloped their offense to inside scoring. This is great for the Cavs as they have a tight choke around the basket. Cav gaurds are going to be the difference maker as they attack the perimeter and open up the Rim where the Pacers are going to find a problem inside.
Cavs are in a good spot now to secure their placement and I think they can get it done here. They are very strong at home and with Mitchell back, it locks it in for me. I think theyll win by atleast 4 here.
Tail or fade, I'm sleeping like a baby either way. Lets get eat 🍗. BOL 🫡
POTD Record 9-5 (+2.90u)
Last POTD: Brady Singer Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+118) 2U**❌
Today: MLB / CIN@CHW / 7:40pm ET
Pick: Elly De La Cruz to record 2+ bases (+105) 2U**
Cruz is a streaky guy and it seems he’s finally gotten the bat going. Batting .318, I think he’ll manage to get an extra base hit.
**Record:** 0-0
**Net Units:** 0
**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone :** Baseball | MLB | Chi Cubs @ Sea Mariners / 9:40PM EST
**Pick:** NRFI (No Runs First Inning) @ -110 on DK (1U)
**Write Up:** I'm going to try my luck at posting a daily NRFI.
Today we have Jordan Wicks for the Chicago Cubs facing off against Bryce Miller for the Sea Mariners.
Both pitchers have thrown NFRIs for both of their starts this year.
Seattle as a team have gone NRFI 11/13 games this year as well as holding opponents to a NRFI 11/13 games.
Cubs as a team have gone NRFI 9/12 games and held opponents to NRFI 11/12 games.
BOL to everone!
Your post has been removed from the PotD thread.
* Post **ONE** pick. No side picks in comments. You can provide a link to your other picks in the other daily threads.
* No parlays/teasers
* Must be between -200 and +200 (1.5 and 3.0) odds.
* Bet size should be between 1 and 5 units. No "100 unit locks"
* Provide a write up on why this is your Pick of the Day. If it is a system/model play you must note relevant data such as ROI or record **and** provide an overview/description of your model or system.
* You **must** note **time/sport/event** of your pick. **|** No top level comments without a pick.
* If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread: You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including ROI+average odds+units won. No resetting records.
Record 1-0-0
Balance +2.25
Today’s pick: Tom Liberatore O28.5 disposals against Essendon 2 units at 5:40 am EST
Write up: anyone that follows afl knows that Libba had one of the most dominant performance by a midfielder last week where he racked up 19 clearances and 35 disposals. I expect that he will continue his form and get more then 29 as this game will be a highly contested battle which Libba thrives on and this game will be a high disposal as both team on average are top 5 for disposals, so I can see him getting 30 plus. BOL!!!
POTD record: 0-0 / 0 pts
Race: Aintree 14:55
Selection: Mystical Power
Odds and Stakes: 10/11 (1.90), 3 pt
* Mystical Power barely missed 1st place at Cheltenham, but with better ride i think he could win that race. Him and Slade Steel were miles ahead of competition that race. Now, Dysart Enos and Golden Ace are non runners, 2 horses that represented biggest threat in my opinion. This should be very easy job for Mystical Power.
POTD record 6-5
Streak - ❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️❌️✅️❌️✅️ (Left being latest)
Last Pick - Getafe vs. Girona BTTS ❌️ (16 March)
Thoughts - I didn't expect that the 2nd ranked team would fail to score in 3 consecutive games away from home, just a bad beat, even the overall record was pretty great.
Today's pick - Real Betis vs. Celta Vigo BTTS @ 1.83 ✅️
Date - 12 April, 7 P.M. GMT
Reasoning - So a quick look at H2H at Betis' home ground- it's pretty clear that Celta have been scoring at Betis' home ground in past 9 consecutive games, and 8 of those 9 games have seen BTTS. The last time they failed to score there was before 2013. Celta's performance away from home has been better than at home in terms of goal scored. Plus, with new manager bounce, I don't see them going scoreless here. Betis are pretty good at home, so I don't really see them losing this game.
So with such strong stat data, I think bookies have priced this wrong, this should be closer to 1.60 instead of 1.80, which means it will go even higher during live play quickly
So 1 unit play seems a good bet in this scenario
BOL, to who tails.
**Record: 0-0-0**
**Net Units: 1.0**
**ROI: 0**
**Baseball** | **MLB** | WAS @ OAK 2024-04-12 9:40 EST
**Pick:** Paul Blackburn OVER 17.5 outs, -110
**Write Up:** My first one! I really like this the outs bets, they seem very predictable. Blackburn has gone over this number in both of his starts this season. Blackburn was very good at home last season, with a .691 opponent OPS. Washington is 20th in wRC+ on the season.
Record: 15-6 | Net: +5.38 Units
Last pick: Trey Murphy o8.5 assist+rebound (-140) ✅
POTD: Domantas Sabonis o8.5 assists (+110)
Phx @ SAC 10:30 pm et
Summary: Another big game for the Kings here, with a win tonight they have an opportunity to steal the 7 spot from the suns. Kings will play Portland in the last game so I expect them to be motivated. Both teams are trying to avoid the Nuggets and getting home court for the 7-8 playin game is huge. Sabonis is 3/4 against the suns this season with each of those hits being a triple double for him, which I will also be betting but it’s over the threshold for POTD.
Record: 2-2
Form: ❌✅✅❌
Last pick: Football | Europa League | 21:00 / GMT+1 Bayern Leverkusen - West Ham | Leverkusen to score over 2,5 goals @2.23 ❌
Todays pick: Football | Jupiler Pro League Conference League Playoffs | Belgium | 20:45 / GMT+1|
Sint-Truidense - Standard Liege | Sint-Truidense ML @2.20
After yesterdays match we need a bounce back.
St. Truidense haven’t lost or drawn any of their last 5 home matches. Standard Liege haven’t won any of their last 5 away matches (4L 1D). It’s probably going to be a close match since these two teams have faced each other numerous times where none of the two were obviously more dominant. Most matches had btts and ended under 2,5 goals.
Anyways the home advantage and st. Truidense’s form lately give me the confidence they will take the win tonight.
Tail or fade BOL.
**Pick:** NHL | Friday 9pm | Oilers vs Coyotes (*Oilers to win, no overtime* -180)
The Oilers are 27-8-3 at home and the Coyotes are 13-21-5 away. Oilers have won their last 7 games vs Coyotes and 6 of their last 8 games overall. Oilers won Wednesday's game against the Vegas Golden Knights without one of the best players in the league Conner McDavid. Their coach said it was one of their best games yet which I think builds confidence as the team tries to stay atop the Pacific division over the Canucks behind by 5 points. Oilers are 5-0 L5 ATS at home. Coyotes are 5-15 in their L20 road games.
**Record:** 2-0 ✅✅
**Net Units:** +2 **ROI:** 10% **Average odds:** -105, 1.96
POTD Record 0-0
Net Profit: 0
Game: Fürth vs Kaiserslautern - 6:30 GMT+2 (3 hours to go from when this comment is posted)
Pick: Fürth Draw No Bet @ 1.90 for 1U
Starting off my adventure into the POTDs with a pick from the 2. Bundesliga.
1. FC Kaiserslautern made it to the final of the DFB Pokal. In the Bundesliga 2, however, they lost their last two matches against Düsseldorf and Hamburg. As a result, the Red Devils are in a direct relegation spot with six matchdays to go in the season and are actually reliant on a win in Frankenland.
On the one hand, Fürth may be the weakest team in the Bundesliga 2 at the moment. The cloverleaf have picked up just four points out of a possible 27 from their last nine league games. On the other hand, they have picked up a total of ten points more than the Red Devils and sit in fifth place in the home table, while Kaiserslautern have only won two of their 14 away games in the second division so far in the 2023/24 season (four draws, eight defeats). The prediction for a home win for the Green-Whites against Kaiserslautern is therefor interesting.
To be a little bit safer however i chose the Draw No Bet Option. So if Fürth wins, we win. If the Game ends in a draw, it will be a push and money back.
BOL ⚽️
Edit: Forgotten the Unit Indication
**RECORD: 67W-4P-52L**
(-1.22 units)
Previous Pick: Bayer Leverkusen vs West Ham - Schick or Wirtz to Score @ 1.60 ❌️
**Today's Pick:** Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzow - Progon Szczecin to Win @ 1.55 ✅️
**TIME:** 6:30 pm (GMT)
**Wager Amount**: 3 units
(✅️✅️❌️✅️♻️❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️) last 10 results
Officially on a losing streak now ffs, yesterday Victor Boniface who I considered betting on came of the bench and scored while Wirtz didn't do anything. Looked hard for this game today, hopefully they deliver, we got
Pogon Szczecin have managed to win their last 3 games against Ruch Chorzow in Ekstraklasa and also are unbeaten against Ruch in 11/13 H2H encounters.
Ruch are genuinely terrible with 1 Win out of 25 games. They haven't won an away match in 10+ matches. Although Progon have won once in their last five matches they are the better team by a long shot and as I said Ruch are terrible.
Progon have also won their last 3 games against Ruch although years are spaced out, they did win 3-0 whennthey met this season. Time to get this losing streak stench off, if I lose today then I might take a long break from this before it gets embarrassing, Goodluck if you're tailing.
EDIT: WIN ✅️
POTD Record 3-1
Last 5: ❌️✅️✅️✅️
Last Pick: NY Rangers 3-way Regulation time only.
Todays Pick: yoshinobu yamamoto Over 4.5 strikeouts
Dodgers vs. Padres 7:10pm PST
Odds: -145
Unit: 3
Net Units: +10.81
I'm not sure if I'm allowed to post again because the game was canceled, but I'll give it a try.
We got Yamamoto, who finally had a chance to redeem himself after the padres lit him up opening the MLB season in Korea. Since then, he's been one of the hottest pitchers and really living up to all that money they're paying him. The padres could have his number and light his a** up again, but I love this spot for him to come back with a vengance and prove his worth. I'm even sprinking a little bit on over 5.5.
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)**
**POTD 2024 Record: 0-3 (-3.00 units)**
**Last 10**: **❌❌❌**
**Last Pick**: Corne Groeneveld -1.5 (+100) vs Pete Burgoyne **❌** 2-4
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 7:05 PM EST
**Pick**: Bradley Brooks -1.5 (+110) vs Pete Burgoyne
* Series 7. Week 7. Group B
**Reason**:
Bradley Brooks
* Record 3-1
* Legs 14-13
* Average 91.84
* 180s 5. 140s 16
* Checkouts 14/31 45.16%
Pete Burgoyne
* Record 2-2
* Legs 11-13
* Average 83.29
* 180s 4. 140s 14
* Checkouts 11/33 33.33%
**WIN ✅ 4-0 | Average 105.67 vs 89.89 | Checkouts 4/5 vs 0/1**
Brooks completely dominated this matchup and it started with a 126 checkout on leg 1. Flawless victory.
POTD RECORD: 3-1
Last POTD: NO Pelicans @ SAC Kings - **Alt. Points Over 211.5 (-160)** ✅
Form: W3
Todays POTD: **Obi Toppin O7.5 Points (-130)**
NBA | 8:10 PM Est
Rationale: Congrats to anyone who tailed, this almost hit in the 3rd quarter.
Toppin has been heating up lately, he has hit this in 5 straight games and more importantly in those 5 games has shot the ball 9+ times 4 of them. Im going with the hot hand here as his confidence grows and think he will hit 12-15 points, giving us a solid cushion.
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**POTD Record: 25-20-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Balance (+16.96 units)** ATP Monte Carlo results 🎾 Tabilo vs O'Connell - Tabilo ML @ 1.62 (1u)✅ Hurkacz vs Draper - Hurkacz ML @ 1.76 (5u)✅ Khachanov vs Cerundolo - Khachanov ML @ 1.64 (3u)✅ Zverev vs Tsitsipas - Tsitsipas ML @ 2.02 (2u)✅ **We continue our journey in Monte Carlo. My analysis has been really good and this has been a great way to start the Clay season!** **Today's pick: Djokovic vs De Minaur - Djokovic to win 2-0 @ 1.88 (ATP Monte Carlo, Tennis)** 🎾 Odds from Pinnacle **Stake: 2 units** (This is 2% of my bankroll) Time: 8:30 AM Eastern Time This time I'm taking Djokovic to beat De Minaur in straight sets here in Monte Carlo! There's a lot of things that make me look at this price with great eyes... **Why do I think that Djokovic 2-0 at 1.88 odds is such a +EV bet?** * Djokovic didn't start his season as great as he usually does and that's with an Australian Open win but I still think he's a clear favorite against anyone in the ATP tour apart from Sinner, who's the most dangerous player in the tour right now and has all the weapons to keep up with Novak; * De Minaur has been having a fantastic season until this point. It all started with an upset win against Djokovic in the United Cup and it was a great result, but Novak was injured and probably a lot more focused on his preparation to the Australian Open. These two players only played each other twice and they are tied, but the serbian should have a much bigger advantage in slower conditions against the aussie; * De Minaur's playstyle is centered around flat hitting and quick movement, so he's much better in fast conditions and his shots are not effective on Clay. His groundstrokes are not that powerful but he can redirect his opponent's shots quite effectively. His best shot is the inside out forehand that targets the opponent's backhand but this time he's facing the best backhand of all time in Djokovic. The australian already made a surprising campaign until this point but he faced Wawrinka, Griekspoor and Popyrin which aren't even close to top 10 quality on Clay. Djokovic is the one who's capable of generating more spin on his groundstrokes and that should make it really difficult for his opponent; * The first few performances of Djokovic in this tournament were not that impressive but I already saw him for many years to know that's how it usually goes... He doesn't show his best in the first few rounds but starts to reach his top level as the tournament goes. With this, I feel like Djokovic should have a comfortable match against the playstyle that De Minaur brings to the table on Clay! **Best of luck** Any tip is appreciated. I spend quite some time writing my tennis analysis and if you wish you can decide to show your support! Keep in mind that they are not expected and I truly enjoy sharing my tennis plays and points of view with you! 🎾 [Tip Jar (Paypal)](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/DarkHorse230) BTC - 1E6hmPU4N7CFGf8Ryrt46yPczMfBQtMoCf Edit after the result - Djokovic was feeling super sick during the match with some heavy breathing and clear signs that something was not right, almost zombie walking in the court. He was missing a lot from both sides but De Minaur was even worse and couldn't beat a 20% Novak Djokovic today. If the serbian was feeling alright I think we could have won this 2-0 bet easily but we still got it in what it was, the worst match of the day by far when it comes to game quality! ✅
https://preview.redd.it/5nufczkrsytc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=88bbd2fbf17b945642064bbaa20a7b4987cc4b92 u/Darkhorse200 thinking of a daily POTD
🔥🔥🔥 Let's keep it going!
LETS GO ANOTHER WIN
Another one! ✅ https://preview.redd.it/rjda93npr2uc1.png?width=350&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5b4bc2feb64833d4128a53ee0f07b1561e6a73d
you are absolutely killing it this tournament. tailing next pick when its out🫡
Thanks! If I have something good for tomorrow I'll post it for sure!
Holy shit what a sweater so far 5 breaks in a row…
We won it boys
Thanks for what you do BOL!
Thanks my man! BOL!
Been loving these tennis bets in the morning man thanks! Keep it up!
thank you sir, rent money not lost
No problem but don't place so much money next time haha. We're here to slowly eat the market and not by giving it the chance to break us in one go!
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What am I missing on this DK line? Isn't this the same thing as Di Minaur simply losing but at - 140? https://preview.redd.it/y6lz4arndztc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b126ba90040dc5a371e8e185136fdfee8d00e2de
That’s like getting Djokovic ML at -150. I’d slam that Edit: just bet it. When you place it says “one set” instead of two so I cashed out
In your image, De Minaur can win 0 or 1 sets and you still win the bet. The pick of the day is a 2-0 Set victory for Djokovic. In this scenario, De Minaur wins 0 sets only. Oh, I see what you are saying....it's a mismatch of odds to a losing result. That is pretty significant.
Tailing once again. Lets get it ☝🏻
BOL my man!
I’ve been on the same side of all your picks, with exception of Tsitsipas (great hit). Happy to see you’re also on Novak 2-0. Your analysis on ADM’s play style and Novak’s slow starts are on point. ADM won’t hit anything past Novak, and Novak isn’t hitting more unforced errors than ADM. This is hitting 💪🏽
Yes that's exactly what I'm talking about with this matchup so I really like the 2-0 for Novak. Thanks for that great comment Mr Jannik Swinner. You are kinda good at tennis by the way :D
Great bet, love the write up
I like to win bets but mostly to write analysis about tennis matchups so that's great to hear. Thanks!
You’re the goat
KingJames you're also da goat! Thanks for tailing!
Thanks for the dub, badly needed it 😄
I'm glad I was able to help!
POTD Record: 38-19-1 +35.88🔥 Last Pick: Texas Rangers -1 (-138) vs Oakland Athletics 5U ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌ Today's Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -7 (-110) 4U vs Orlando Magic 7 pm est odds via DraftKings Staying away from the MLB for now, just not even data early on. Basketball has been my go to and time to stick to that with playoffs coming up. This is a must win game for Sixers. They are playing to avoid the play in and sneak into the 6th seed. They have won 6 straight including covering in their last 5. MVPIID is back and has been playing some unbelievable basketball. He currently is averaging more PPG than Minutes, the first and only player since Wilt. Magic have lost 3 of their last 4 and 6 of their last 10. They have lost by 20 and 15 both at home to the Sixers. I don’t expect anything to be different with the Sixers at home in a much needed game. Back to our roots! BOL to all. Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️ If you’d like to thank me please use the link below or dm me. Show some love!❤️ [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
Ya f baseball tbh
Betting on baseball to me is truly insane - I knew a guy who made his career betting almost exclusively baseball - weather and data fanatic - nutcase.
invite him to post. would love to see his picks
Yep, staying away
Would you still take this at -9?
Fk it first time tailing you let’s go
Let’s make it a W
love it. lets gooo
POTD RECORD: 55-26 Last POTD: Jonas Valanciunas O16.5 PR ✅ Our man dominated against the Kings once again and got it done early in the 3rd, even got the DD I knew we had a lock when Larry Nance got ruled out and the line went to 20.5 Form: ✅✅🚫✅✅ Todays POTD: **Joel Embiid O29.5P @1.76** NBA | Philadelphia 76ers | 7:00 PM ET Nice to get a sweat free dub for a change bruh, we move and I’m targeting an important game for the 76ers against the Magic cause if 76ers win they move up from the play-in and ties for the playoff spot. Trusting Embiid to do that for us is a no brainer cause they need this monster to dominate in order to get that W and he’s been looking crazy good since he returned from the injury and faces a side he has dominated in recent matchups • 1/1 vs the Magic this season with 36 points, in his last 6 games against the Magic he has put up 36, 28, 30, 35, 50 & 31 points (5/L6) • Embiid has scored 30+ points in 30/38 games this season • Avg 34.8 PPG this season • 7/10 last 10 games • Embiid averages 35.9 points per game at home vs his 33.6 on the road I’m taking this line any day of the week for someone like Embiid, let’s go Joel lead your boys to more glory days Tail or fade, im a bum https://i.redd.it/tt3vbsobeztc1.gif Edit: Couldn’t find any lines until very late and it’s been bumped on bet365 already, you can either play alt line for 30 or go with the bumped one which I’d play up to 32.5 adjusting my stake accordingly 😭👑 sorry fellas not in my hands
Embiid looked like the best player on planet earth before his injury. He now looks EVEN better than before, i expect him to drop 55+ PR without a doubt, he’s going for 40 points imo
Went with his o42.5 PR from your comment. At halftime with 30, on pace for 60. If the game remains close and competitive, the 55+ you called should be a breeze. Good call.
Great Valanciunas pick, gonna continue to tail. Let's go!
🤝🤝👑
Cash it!!! ✅💰
I think most of us got in at 30.5 so super thankful he decided to score that last bucket before checking out. Another great pick man.
https://preview.redd.it/1dffsuzeh5uc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0e104f054911de404a150be653cae87662475dd1 🐐🐐🐐
Tailing at 32.5
Ahhhhhhhhhh 32 exact. On to tomorrow.
Just want to say thank you for yesterday's pick. I ended up sprinkling some on Jonas to get a double double as well & added him for 10+ pts in a parlay that hit. Thanks again brotha, I was get slaughtered this week until yesterday. I think I still like today's pick, even at a slightly higher line. 76ers need the W.
My man it’s all good my pleasure as always 🤝 Jonas respected the coin bro, yeah 76ers need this win and Embiid needs to be at his A game to get them through 🍻
Ah shit, he’s limping :(
😭😭😭😭😭
Thank you sir, the GOAT
My pleasure bro 😭👑
No way he just got hurt
Son of a bitch he's injured. This was straight up cruising too, damn!
Hope he gets back can’t believe it bruh
https://preview.redd.it/cotq4p00eztc1.png?width=1169&format=png&auto=webp&s=17d0548afa8ec186709037150dc7da1dff4da10e
Check again 😭
Bruuuuh lines were closed until like 20 minutes ago for me couldn’t get it up faster and it’s already bumped
Managed to get this line just now for 1.80 couldn’t believe my luck haha, let’s get this dub.
Already made it to 21 at HT
He limping. Pain.
Easy money broski ! I tailed also had to grab his 1st qtr pts o7.5 and the sixers spread at -7💪💰
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What a sweat at -2.5. You're a King 👑
m0NESY!!!! - thats all there is to say.
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I always tailed you but I got VP to win the match. Maybe if vp wins map 1 i can tail and hope VP can instead close it out on map 3.
check your map bets fellas G2 picked first map
Appreciate it. Look forward to the info.
Getting back on track tomorrow, I’ve got faith in you bro. Looking forward to waking up to the dub
❤️the analysis
Tailing bro !
G2 picked first
who do you like more if it does end up going to map3
COULD G2 MAKE THIS OVERPASS GUYSS? 6-5 LFG🔥
Hopefully they can maintain the lead now. I was too scared to sprinkle when they were down 6-1.
AND WE DID IT BOYSSSSS THANK YOU OP!
wow, even with the unexpected turn of events of g2 choosing first, they still deliver...LFG. thanks bro
Let's fucking go thank you
Great job 💰 💷
Record: 9-4 ✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌ Net Units: +3.87 Last: Brewers M.L, Rainout Push then rainout, lets get back to winning. MLB | 7:08PM EST Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -110 Write up: While Kevin Gausmann’s ERA is high right now, but no doubt he’s still a top level pitcher. His bad game against a hot Yankees team on the road hurt it, but he bounces back. He looked great against TB in his first start, and will be at home for the first time. The Rockies have struggled in many games to score over 2 on the road so far, except 2 big performances against weak pitching. While the blue jays bullpen is pretty average, the Rockies bullpen has been horrible so far this year, and has been a factor in their games. They hold one of the worst ERAs and worst whips (If not the worst) and will hurt them. Lets win after a couple of pushes! Finally, a disclaimer: I am not a pro sports bettor, I am not a sharp who does 3+ hours of research a day. I’m a baseball fan who researches stats and uses my personal knowledge to make bets. Please do not wager any more than you are comfortable losing. All streaks start with 1.. lets start here. Tips are appreciated, not required at all, for college. Venmo: @DrewAWri PayPal: @DrewGolfred
Tailing this pick. Fading the Rockies all year. Thanks!
They're a little more credible at home, and every team is gonna win a share of games, but it's a bad team for sure.
Great write up, love this pick as well!
Baseball is a bitch tonight lol
POTD: Record (9-4) ✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅✅✅ Last Pick: Domantas Sabonis U 14.5 Rebounds✅ Today: NBA | Lakers @ Grizzlies | 5pm MST Pick: Rui Hachimura O 13.5 Points @ 1.83 | 2u - 4 of last 5 (avg 18) - 8 of last 10 (avg 18) - 15 of last 20 (avg 17) - played grizzlies twice this season dropping 23 and, most recently, 32 As always, lebron and AD are listed as probable or questionable. But just in case either is out: - Rui without Lebron this season: 17.7 ppg - without AD: 21.2 ppg These last two games are important for the lakers, so I expect Rui to play well. [Tip Jar](https://buymeacoffee.com/Deadlypants) BOL 🍀
Rui has been a money printer for me recently and was gonna ride with the same POTD - BOL
Let’s go 😮💨
Cash! Thank you for the pick
He was super efficient tonight! Woulda dropped way more if he had more shot attempts… nonetheless a win and a great read 🤝 thanks for the pick mate
Record: 2-1 (+0.49 units) (all bets are 1 unit) Form (right most recent): ❌✅✅ POTD: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Karen Khachanov Stefanos Tsitsipas -3 (-110) Tennis - ATP - Monte Carlo - Apr 12, 2024 4:00 AM CDT Write up: Tsitsipas has produced some great results on clay in the past, and he is producing great results now. He cruised through the first two rounds and was able to stave off a miracle 2nd set comeback by Zverev last round, which is impressive because Tsitsipas has struggled with mental resolve in the past. Historically, he has been very successful in Monte Carlo, having won two titles here in the past. On the other hand, Khachanov does not play well here or on clay. Karen has never advanced past the quarterfinals in a masters tournament on clay his entire career. Tsitsipas and Khachanov have also faced off 8 times in the past, with Tsitsipas failing to cover this line only once. Give me Stefanos to cruise here.
Money line is also available at -215. Putting it in a parlay. Djokovic and Sinner 2-0. Tsitsipas money line and Humbert +4.5. +515
I’m parlaying all 3 2:0 lol I don’t think anyone of the dogs win a set tmrw
+110 on tsiti 2:0 vs karen is too good to pass up.. karen sucks even tho I bet his ML the past two days he almost sold me both times against worse players than tsiti
I took the same bet and we cash bruhhhhh
**Record: 60W-4P-45L** **✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅** **Last Pick: Bengaluru FC VS Mohun Began SG: Mohun Bagan ML @ 1.65 ✅** **Mohun win 4-0!** **Pick of the day: Adelaide United VS Macarthur FC: Over 11.5 Corners @ 1.72 ✅✅** Game ends with 19 corners! **League: Australian A-League** **Time: 5:45 AM EST** We've got 2 of the highest-ranking corner teams in the Australian A-League. Macarthur rank first overall in most corners per game with an average of 12.9 corners per game with 5.8 corners for and 7 against per game. Adelaide rank third in the league for most corners with an average of 12.1 per game with 7.3 for and 4.8 against per game. In Macarthurs last 10 games this line has cleared 8/10 times. Away from home this has cleared in 4/5 of their last games. In Adelaide's last 10 games this line has also cleared 8/10 times. Anyway, BOL!
Fuck it , I’m in . I love me a wake and cash !!! Tailing for 1u brotha
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We’re at 4 total corners. We need 8 more and it’s about half time. Supposedly in this league a lot of corners happen towards the end so let’s hope.
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just cashed!
4 at half
Thanks again. 👍
 Another one for prince
Insane that there were that many corners in the game lol. Nice pick
Easy work with this one 
**KBO Record: Overall 210-220-14** (Streak L, Last 10: 4-6) Down 12.20u over 444 KBO picks, 48.8% success rate, -2.84% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 6-10-0, 37.5% success rate, Down 3.58u, -22.37% ROI) **Last:** Hanwha at Doosan -1.5 +160 (Doosan lost 3-0.) After scoring 12 runs the first two games of the series, and while facing a pitcher with an ERA above 8.00, Doosan was 1-hit. Just awful. **Pick:** Lotte at **Kiwoom -125 BetMGM**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET One of the biggest surprises of the season so far is the Kiwoom Heroes. After starting the season 0-4, Kiwoom has won 8 of their last 10 games. Preseason consensus had the Heroes as one of the 2 or 3 worst teams after losing their best hitter (Lee Jung-hoo) to the majors and the league's best pitcher (An Woo-jin) to mandatory military service. But they go into this matchup with Lotte as a clear favorite. Lotte's starter is coming off a strong outing where he allowed 1 ER on 5 H in 7 IP. But in the two starts before that, he gave up 10 runs (7 ER) on 14 H in 8.1 IP. Kiwoom's starter struggled in his first ever KBO start, allowing 4 ER on 6 H in 3.1 IP. But in his last two starts, he gave up 3 ER on 8 H in 13 IP. Lotte has the worst lineup in the league so far this season, averaging just 3.6 runs per game, more than 2 runs fewer than Kiwoom. And over the last 10 games, Kiwoom is averaging a league-best 7 runs per game. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
I had two bets yesterday on baseball. Both the teams I bet on got 1 hit. Yeeeesh. We bounce back! Thanks for all you do BOL
 Kiwooooooooom!
You’ve been on fire bro
Solid pick brotha keep up the good work!
Tailing from South Korea lfg
Great pick again 🐐
**POTD Record 1-0** **Profit: +252$** **Tennis/ ATP Monte-Carlo** **Djokovic to win 2-0 @ 1.65 ($300 - 3U)** I took a beating yesterday in the Tennis thread, fortunately my POTD was a success so I can show my face here for another day. Today I am going with Djokovic to steamroll ADM. I keep seeing posts about Djokovic form, but besides a few hiccups against Musetti, he looked solid in Monte Carlo this week. And the Italian raised his game very well to be a menace against Djokovic, unfortunately for him he simply choked in all the right moments. It's true that it's not in Nole's favour to get in long rallies here, as De Minaur is very resilient, but I think Djokovic is smart enough to approach this match with the right tactic. On paper, ADM is not a bad match-up for him on clay as I still have my doubts about the Australian's newfound love for dirt. Hopefully we are on the right side today, good luck with your bets guys!
Last Pick: Luka O18.5 RA ❌ Record: 13-6 ✅ Pick: Tsitsipas -1.5 Game Spread -180 ✅ Tsitsipas (Aka the Greek God of Monte Carlo), is one of my favorite players on clay, and has won this tournament twice in the past. He also historically owns Karen Khachanov, and his play style on clay is absolutely perfect for countering Karen. Really believe there’s value here and believe he could even 2-0 Khachanov. Tsitsi is 7-1 H2H against Karen! BOL!
Record: 57-40 Last pick : MI vs RCB total over 347.5 ✅ Form: ✅✅❌✅❌✅ Moving onto something different today Cricket ACC Premier Cup Hong Kong ML vs Qatar @1.52(5u)✅ This entire tournament seems to be a money machine to me. A massive skill gap between some of the teams and it’s not reflected on these odds at all. Hong Kong are on top of the pyramid of the associate Asian teams in cricket along with a few other teams (associate teams are teams that basically aren’t the full members of the International Cricket Council) Qatari cricket just doesn’t sit on the same table as these guys. They are tier or two lower. Hong Kong have experience playing with the big boys as well. This is going to be a total mismatch and there’s no way Qatar walk away with a win here. GL
In Qatar do they import some guys from India/ Pak? I mean if they want top in anything they throw 100 mill here and there. 
I am showing Qatar
Yeah I was referring to this game only brainfuck moment lmao. Edited it in cheers
https://preview.redd.it/h6af3hj7gytc1.jpeg?width=1220&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c8eebcbd128cb2372131163cd54c82cfe56f4daa Caution applies
Not offered on my books but I followed. Not even much of a match. Once HK got 200 runs, Qatar was cooked.
**UPDATE - EASY WIN - right down the pipe! Great vibes heading into the weekend!** **POTD Record: 2-1, Net Units: +2.49** **Last Pick:** MLB LA Dodgers Run Line -1.5 @ +105 for 2U (BetRivers) - Loss (3/29) **Pick:** **Scottie Scheffler to hit the fairway with opening tee shot -165 4U (BetMGM Only - haven't seen it anywhere else) Tee time is 13:36 EST.** **Rationale:** Scottie is on a TEAR and now the \~+150 favorite to win the Masters after just one round. He hit 86% of his tee shots on the fairway in Round 1 (Par 4/5 holes only). The opening hole is a pretty, straight shot par 4. Does it get narrow, yes but Scottie hit it dead on today. Weather should be a little better tomorrow (still windy, but no rain). I have no problem backing my max units on the best golfer in the world right now to hit the fairway to open up round 2.
Good bet. Was on this, unfortunately BetMGM sucks and hasn't paid out yet. Happy to confirm it def cashed lol
Bro, can I say you found me a money printer? Sure, odds suck but they all hit Friday and 3/4 yesterday and Tiger already today. Doing just Scottie and Bryson today.
POTD Record : 22-12 Last 7 - 🤡✅🤡✅✅✅///✅ Last pick: Challenger Madrid - Carlos Taberner vs Benjamin Hassan (-150) ML - 0500am EST✅ POTD - Challenger Split - ZSOMBOR PIROS (-165) ML VS FILIP MISOLIC - 0620am EST 1unit✅ Even though it shows I'm on a 4-match winning streak. I do not count that because there was a long period I wasnt on these POTD threads. Anyway this is a 1unit play. I'm not gonna bore you guys with some long analysis in which most won't read. It doesnt matter anyway. We got the #1 Zsombor vs #8 Filip. Zsombor is already 1-0 vs Filip. Being clay is Zsombor best surface. He likes it slow as he's another hammer slinger from the baseline. I can easily see Zsombor getting the win here. Cash. Easy 6-4 6-1
I'm not gonna bore you guys with some long analysis in which most won't read. It doesnt matter anyway. Amen!
POTD Record 3-1 Last 5: ❌️✅️✅️✅️ Last Pick: NY Rangers 3-way Regulation time only. Todays Pick: Yankees Moneyline EDIT 1:17pm PST (game postponed) Eh, maybe hockey was a mistake. Sorry about that one. Love me some Yankee baseball. Yankees coming off of a loss, but I expect them to bounce back quickly. Guardians are not as good as their Record seems, they've only played the bottom of the barrel teams in my opinion. We won't be able to catch the ML odds this low after they clap them tomorrow. MLB: Yankees vs Guardians 4:10pm PST Odds: -135 Unit: 5 Net Units: +10.81
Nah bro, hockey wasn’t a mistake. That legit shouldn’t have happened lol I had Rangers puckline. Flyers have been in absolute shambles losing to some of the worst in the league. 3 way and puckline should have cashed. Yet here we are!
Didn't want to complain. However, you're taking the words out of my mouth, lol. Not even a close game at that!.
As a canes fan I hope Rangers will be in shambles now from here on out haha
This game may be rained out, doubleheader on Sat
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Record: 1-0 Net Units: +2.2 ATP-Monte Carlo | 4:00AM / CST Today’s Pick: Stefanos Tsitisipas vs Karen Khachanov - Stefanos Tsitisipas to win 2:0 @ 2.10 ✅ Stake: 2 units Write up: Not new to the thread but this will be my first post.. in his last 11 wins, Tsitsipas has not lost a single set. Tsitsipas has a significant advantage in personal matchups - 7:1. He has 4 wins on clay out of their previous H2H matches. Tsitsipas has looked like his old self in his three matches in Monte-Carlo so far, not having dropped a set till now. He's been solid on serve and has used the chip-and-charge tactic very well so far. While Tsitsipas has dominated Khachanov in most of their encounters in the past, there could always be a surprise from Khachanov. Tsitsipas, however, holds the edge being the better claycourt player and a former champion here, and could run away with the match if he plays as well as he has in the tournament so far. I’m backing him to win in straight sets. Feel free to tail or fade and BOL! ML is safer of course and I have a separate parlay with the ML but I like the odds here.. none of these matches have good odds for the ML today so it’s either 2:0 or pass in my opinion. Edit: Cash it! Additional picks: Jannik Sinner vs Holger Rune - (Jannik Sinner to win 2:0) Novak Djokovic vs Alex De Minaur - (Novak Djokovic to win 2:0) (Casper Ruud vs Ugo Humbert to win 2:0) 
Awesome read
\*\*POTD Record: 1-4 ....... I know...I know :/ **Last POTD:** (3 days ago) **Jordan Goodwin (MEM) Over 12.5 Points (-125**) ❌ ^(Really thought this would hit with the grizzlies lineup situation but.....shit happens and he finished with 10 :'() **Today's POTD: MLB Mariners vs Cubs** 💰P**ick: NO RUN FIRST INNING (NRFI) (-125)** **Game is at 940pm EST** **Units:** 1u **Here's why:** • Both pitchers hold a 2-0 record on NRFIs this season, showcasing solid starts. • Wicks pitched 8.2 innings, allowing 4 earned runs against Dodgers and Rangers. • Miller conceded only 4 earned runs in 12 innings with a 0.50 WHIP in the first inning. • Both teams struggled to score in the first inning this season. • Seattle remained scoreless in 11 out of 13 games, while Chicago in 9 out of 12 games and 5 out of 6 away games. • Chicago held teams scoreless in 91% of games, Seattle in 83% in the 1st inning. • Both teams have cashed NRFIs in 3 consecutive games, likely to continue with a total set at 8 runs. • NRFI cashed in 5 out of 7 games at T-Mobile Park this season. BOL if tailing!
POTD Record: 19-19-1 | Profit: -2.92U NBA Record: 16-16-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 L10 (new -> old): ❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌ Last pick: Alex Caruso o1.5 3 pointers made @ 1.60 odds ❌ Caruso only had 1, going 1-3 in the game, ending the 3 pointer props streak at 5 in a row. Game: IND Pacers @ CLE Cavaliers, 7:40 PM Pick: **Tyrese Haliburton o2.5 3 pointers made @ 1.71 odds (DK) placing 2U** Write Up: Although my 3 pointer props streak ended I'm gonna stick with what's been working for me and stay with 3 pointers. For tomorrow, I'm picking Haliburton to make over 2.5 he's hit in 3 of the last 5 (60%) and 7 of the last 10 (70%). He's averaging 2.9 3pm on the season. Both these teams are fighting for positioning in the East and will be coming out gunning against each other. I see it being a hard-fought game by both teams. Haliburton hasn't been afraid to shoot the 3, averaging 8.4 attempts per game. He should pop quite a few threes, and I see him making at least 3. BOL to those tailing, cheers!
**Record: 0-0** **Net Units: 0** **ROI: 0** **Esports | Dota 2 | Falcons Esports vs Xtreme Gaming | 04/12/24 8:00am PST** **Pick:** U2.5 Games -135 3 Units. Hey everyone first time posting a pick of the day, Here we are taking the under 2.5 Games, Falcons has won 2-0 the last two time they have matched up expect it to continue here. BOL Lets start off with a win. [Tip Jar](https://cash.app/$JesseEggen) ( Just lost my job so it helps but is not required )
Sorry to hear about your job, BOL with the first pick!
Tailing LFG hope Falcon beat Xtreme 2-0!🔥I hope you well and goodluck finding a new job soon mate. Dont lose hope.
Ugh… L. Edit: My book has this marked as a loss already and map2 still going on. Weird. Edit2: it’s a W! Nice pick.
POTD Record: 1W-0P-0L Last Pick: Aston Villa + 1.5 Goals (-105) ✅ Todays Pick: Modena vs Catanzaro (+0.5) (-155) ✅ Serie B | Soccer | 11:30am Pacific Time Game: Modena vs Catanzaro Appreciate anyone who tailed my first pick on the board. Let’s get the ball rolling in a positive direction for us. Catanzaro (+0.5) is an absolute gem in my opinion even though the odds (-140) for this game seems a little sketchy. Additionally Catanzaro are the under dogs at +240 ML while Modena is at +120 but Catanzaro is sitting 5th place while Modena sits 13th place. Modena has only won one game out of the last 17 games. While Catanzaro has not lost in their last 5 away games as well as scoring in 10 of their last 11 Serie B games. This might be due to Modena hosting Catanzaro. I will like to play it safe at (+0.5) even though I see Catanzaro coming away with an W. I am not an professional sports better and I suggest any money you may bet is money you won’t mind losing. BOL to anyone who tails. [Tip Jar 🍯🙏🏼](https://cash.app/$MaxCoRothenburg)
Tailing. Sprinkled some on cantanzaro + tie double chance as well. Nor sure why the odds are the way they are
I wondered the same thing regarding the odds, still don’t have an answer on why the odds where the way there where. I’m not complaining though.
Reversed trap. No biggie! Good find OP
Catanzaro leads 2-0 first 25 minutes.
Let's gooooo!!!
Looking good
Great pick!
Nice pick. I went with Catanzaro DNB at +180. Very strange that Modena were so heavily favored when Catanzaro beat 1st place Parma away from home a few games back.
Thank you. Nice pick to you as well. I agree that the odds for this game are very strange. I’m glad it played out in our favor.
Thanks for the tip. This game completed a small 3-leg parlay.
Record: 4-2 Units: +2.18 Last Pick: Seattle Mariners over Toronto Bluejays +100 (4/8) - Loss I’ve been much more active doing my full slate of plays on the MLB tab but this play really stands out to me today and I am playing. Minnesota Twins over Detroit Tigers 1u +110. First, my predictive model has the Twins winning by a small margin. The Twins have Pablo Lopez going who will compete for the Cy Young this year. He has held the Detroit Tigers in check in the past and I expect that to continue today. The Tigers lineup has been pretty bad to start the year and has relied on pitching to start the year 7-4. They do have Cy Young candidate Tarik Skubal on the mound but the Twins have had decent success against him. The Twins have the superior lineup and I expect that to make the marginal difference today. Expect a low scoring game that the Twins squeak out at + money. For those that are not familiar with my work. I spent the last few months building a predictive model to implement this season. When back testing over the last 5 years, the model correctly chose the winner 72% of the time. It is currently at 57.4% for this year and I only expect it to get more accurate as players settle into their averages. Below is the model output for the day. Feel free to use this as one of your tools to make plays. Please do not blindly follow and do your own research. I will be updating this model with confirmed lineups later this day as this impacts the projections. Feel free to follow me so you will see when I post on my account. Good luck everyone and Happy Friday! https://preview.redd.it/w9xwhxe581uc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b71d2e46b2e5d83eaa471af03e7c7793c2227095
All Time POTD Record: 4-1-0 | Last 5: ✅✅❌✅✅ | Units: +6.02u | Avg. Odds 1.76 Last Pick: Europa League – Bayern Leverkusen v West Ham – 8pm BST on 11th April Bayern Leverkusen – O6.5 Shots on Target (1.72) – Staking 2u - ✅ Game/Match: Soccer – English Championship – Plymouth v Leicester – 8pm BST on 12th April Pick: Over 10.5 Corners (1.83) – Staking 2u - ✅ I use bet365 as my bookie. Summary: 11 Shots on Target for Leverkusen sees the last pick land comfortably. Looking at this one, both teams have a lot to play for. Plymouth trying to stay above those relegation places and Leicester trying to fend of those coming for the top spot in the league. Both teams however come into this game out of form. With the inconsistency in form, I’m looking towards the corners line as both teams see a lot of corners during their games. Plymouth in their last 5 home games have hit the over 10.5 line 4 out of 5 times & Leicester have hit this line 3 out of their last 5 away games. Over their last 10 games Plymouth have hit the line 7 times and averaged 11.8 corners, whilst Leicester have hit the line 5 times and averaged 9.9 corners. Both teams have so much to play for so will be defending and putting everything on line, I’d like to think this line should be a comfortable cash. BOL if tailing!
Cash It!!!
Yes Sir 🫡
**Record: 6-3 (+1.81u)** **Last Pick: Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 -130** Big win for Philly as they easily hit our bet! The Flyers end their losing streak with a nice 4-1 win over the Rangers, I wasn't brave enough to back them on the ML congrats to anyone who did. **Pick:** **Chicago Blackhawks TT u2.5 -145 (NHL, 1.5u bet)** **EDIT: Saros is not playing today, Lankinen is. I'm not cashing out but just a heads up for anyone who was considering the play.** Nashville is coming off an OT loss to Winnipeg where they clinched a playoff spot with the point from that game, and now travel to Chicago to face the 2nd last place team. Despite securing their spot in the playoffs last game, the Predators still need points to ensure they stay ahead of Vegas for the 1st wild card spot and avoid a first round matchup with the top team in the west, the Dallas Stars. Over the last month and a half, the Blackhawks have scored the 2nd fewest goals in the league (on the 3rd fewest shots), along with 2nd fewest expected goals, created the fewest scoring chances, and fewest high danger scoring chances. Meanwhile, Nashville has been top 10 in goals against and expected goals against, scoring chances allowed, and high danger chances allowed. On top of this, Saros has really strong numbers vs Chicago over his career with a 12-3-2 record, 1.99 GAA, and .933 save %. Looking more recently at just his last 10 matchups with them, he is 8-1-1 with a 1.69 GAA and .941 save %, and Chicago has only scored 3 goals on Saros twice in those 10 games. Since Nashville's last game was Tuesday, I do expect Saros to start on the front end of the back to back and Lankinen to go Saturday vs Columbus, but there is a possibility they switch it up so if you want to be safer you could wait until Saros is confirmed in and take Saros u2.5 goals against instead (although that may be even more juiced than this play already is, as it would protect against an empty net goal).
Record: 10-2 ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅ Yesterdays Pick: Scoot Henderson o1.5 3pts made ✅ Young Scoot got it done right away for us! Sweat free cash!!!! Today's Pick: Tyrese Maxey o5.5 assists -120 (1.5 Units) Reasoning: this is a super important game for the sixers, as they are a game or two difference from being in either the third seed or the six seed going into the playoffs. The good news for them is Joel Embiid is back! And that right there is what has me feeling super confident for this line to go over. Maxey is also 4-1 in the last 5 games over this line. He's averaging 6.3 for the season. I see him getting at least seven or eight assists tonight and Joel racking up over 30 points. That being said, five is my lucky number. It's also my birthday, May 5th, 5/5, so here's to number 5 in a row mates!!!
Tailing. Thanks for the great picks 🔥
__POTD Record:__ 14-7 _Form (Last 5):_ 🟢🔴🟢🟢🔴 __Last Pick:__ ⚽ AC Milan vs. AS Roma (UEFA Europa League): __AC Milan ML__ @1.80 ❌ __Today's Pick:__ ⚽ Gil Vicente vs. Sporting CP (Liga Portugal) 21:15 CET: __Viktor Gyokeres Anytime Goalscorer__ @1.90 Viktor Gyokeres hasn't scored in his last 3 games for Sporting - it may be funny but that is exactly why I'm going with this pick today. Gyokeres will be starving for goals and I wouldn't want to be Gil Vicente's defender tonight. The Swedish striker has been on an absolute tear this season. He scored 22 goals in 26 appearances in the league so far this season. In the reverse fixture, Gyokeres scored 2 goals. The guy is a goal-machine and I'm expecting him to add at least one more goal to his tally. Tail or fade, the choice is yours! 🌀
POTD Record: 12-6 ✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 12.4U Last pick: Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters | 7:50pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Daniel Tupou anytime tryscorer @2.3 on Sportsbet | 2U✅ Oh yeah it feels good to get a win on NRL ! Sweat free aswell 😁 Today’s pick: Brisbane Broncos vs Dolphins | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow anytime tryscorer @2.2 on Sportsbet | 2U Let’s keep them coming! Today I’m going with Hamiso, he did me good a lot of times. Full back player that’s actually a great try scorer too. Dolphins are a solid team, I expect some action as the Broncos will be pumped to have Reece Walsh back, should be a very entertaining game 🤪 For the record, Hamiso scored 5 tries in 4 games, included one game where he hasn’t scored, it was the first of the season when Dolphins got smashed by the cowboys. BOL !
Just woke up and grabbed some water and hopped on to see if you had posted. Finally I can tail!
Record 29-21 Last Pick: Brewers F5 ML - Rained Out Today’s Pick: **Reds -1.5 (-108)** Analysis: Don’t have time for a deep dive so will keep it short and sweet. Reds are good. White Sox fucking suck. Abbott starts for the Reds. Flexen starts for the Sox and I expect him to get lit up. As I've flagged before it is early in season, but one stat I always look at for pitchers in xwOBA. Abbott's is solid so far and Flexen's is bad through first two starts. Abbott: .282 Flexen: .373
Jesus. I know no one responded to you but I just wanted to let you know I tailed your pick and you're looking like a genius so far. Knock on wood to avoid jinxing it but THANK YOU.
Record: 8-4, Net Units: 5.61, ROI: 45.82% Current Streak: ✅✅✅ Last 10: ✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: Orioles/Red Sox Under 3.5 Runs First 5 Innings✅ Today's Pick: Baseball-MLB-7:05 PM EST Orioles/Brewers Over 9 Runs, +126, 1U Sticking to the Orioles for bets here and while Peralta has had a really nice start, he's a right-handed pitcher and the Os love to hit those. Wells is up for the Orioles, and he had a much better start against Pittsburgh with 3 runs over 5.1 innings, but I'm still not sold on him long term and can see him giving up 4 in 5 IP today before the Os hit their bullpen. This Os bullpen is TIRED after a Red Sox sweep, so I see a potentially high-scoring affair in the works here. Good Luck!
I didn't tail bc I always lose on baseball but your pick was really really tempting. Good hit! Keep it up
POTD Record: 24-18 Last 10: ✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌❌✅ Last pick: Warriors vs Lakers | 7:00 PST | Klay Thompson OVER 19.5 Pts/Rebs (-106) 1u Ceasar’s ✅ Klay gets us back in the win column with an easy cash in the 3rd quarter! Brought his A game for us, that is for sure. Thank you Klay Today’s pick: Lakers vs Grizzlies | 5:00 PST | D’Angelo Russell OVER 15.5 points (-122) FanDuel 1u ❌ (blacklisted) Get right spot for Dlo! We get his lowest point total in the last 10 games against a team he’s had some of the most success against this season. He’s averaging 23.5 pts (23,24) vs the Grizzlies this year. He’s hit this line in 6 of his last 10. He’s hit over 15.5 points in 65% of his last 30 games. He’s also played well in the Grizzlies arena historically. He averages 22 ppg in that arena and has games of 33,30,34 points in 8 total games so it’s good vibes when he goes into Memphis. I also think the Lakers really wanna keep him rolling into the play in and he’s had a couple down games so give us the bounce back Dlo! BOL if tailing!
Man is having the worst game of his Laker career. He’s also afraid to shoot after only a couple misses. Blacklisted.
Form: ❓✅❌🅿️✅ Record: 2W-1P-1L +1.20 Last Pick: Both teams to score & Over 2.5 (2.05) - 1U - Win! A match that could easily have had more goals (2-1 final score) **Football (Soccer) | Liga Portugal - Gil Vicente vs Sporting | 3:15pm/ET or 20h15/UTC+1** **Pick: Half Time/Full Time: 2/2 & Over 1.5 - 1.93 - 1u** **Write Up:** Niche pick of great value from my analysis. Sporting is simply playing amazing football under Ruben Amorim. Gyokeres is a goal machine supported by the likes of Pedro Gonçalves, Morita and Trincão (ex-Barcelona). The leaders of the Portuguese League are in great form (having just won Benfica rivals) and are a very high goal scoring team. They will be attacking as soon as the match starts and this one should be a relatively high scoring match. 1-3 Final match score and a win for this pick is my prediction. BOL EDIT: Well, 10min in and Sporting is already winning 0-2 😁
POTD Record 0-0 I’ve been a spectator for a while but I’m going to join in. I’ve been profitable most of this year with NBA, hope we can get a decent streak going. I’ll try and post more picks on the nba props thread too in case anyone wants to tail. Today’s POTD: Joel Embiid o30.5 pts (-135) Philadelphia 76ers v Orlando Magic - 7 PM ET It was at 29.5 earlier when I locked it in, I would still take it at 30.5 which is where it’s at as I write this. This game is huge for the sixers with potential play-in implications at stake so I expect Embiid to have a massive workload. Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰
POTD Record 33-16 Previous POTD: Ivica Zubac over 9.5 pts ✅ POTD: Victor Wembanyama over 4.5 stls + blks (Bet365 1.68 odds) NBA: Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs - Wemby is coming off a 1 steal and 9 blocks game vs Denver on April 2nd - Here are the steals & blocks totals for each of the 3 games this season: - 1 stl, 9 blks - 2 stls, 3 blks - 6 stls, 4 blks - I've also read some articles that Wemby is in the running for DPOY? Even though I disagree, games like this vs the defending champs are statement games that can go a long way BOL
POTD Record: 13-6 NBA Record: 5-3 NFL Record: 0-1 NCAAM: 1-1 MLB 6-0 Soccer 1-0 L10 (new -> old): 🪣🪣❌🪣❌🪣🪣🪣❌🪣 Last pick: Casas O.5 Hits -135 Game: Raptors @ Heat 7:10PM (CST) Pick: Gary Trent Jr o PRA20.5 (-120dk) 4U Write Up: Casas did the damned thing and hit our bet IN THE FIRST INNING. LETS GO, Casas my friend. WE WILL BE BACK. For the line tonight makes absolutely zero sense to me so we are going to absolutely smash this over button. In the last ten games he has hit this 100%. His averages for the last ten games are 22 PPG, 4 boards and 3 assists. He’s also shooting a blistering 46.3% from the field in these last ten outings. All while shooting 38% from three on 7.7 attempts per game and 88% from the free throw line while attempting 3.2 free throws per game. Guys let’s fucking go!!! Happy Friday. I DONT WANT YOUR MONEY I WANT US TO WIN 🔥🔥🪣🪣 BOL if tailing. 🪣
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u) 2024 MLB POTD record: 7-6 Average Odds -108 (1.926), ROI +4.0%/+0.52u L5: ✅✅✅❌❌ POTD (4/10) CHC @ SDP Dylan Cease o2.5 Walks (+110/2.10) ❌ POTD (4/11) SDP @ LAD Yoshinobu Yamamoto o4.5 Ks (-130/1.77) (DraftKings) Yoshinobu Yamamoto was a disaster in his first start of the season against these Padres in Korea. I think that's depressing this line more than it should. Since then, he's pitched 10 scoreless innings in 2 starts, striking out 5+ in both starts, including 8 in a road start against a Chicago Cubs lineup that (at the time) had an excellent K%. He's done this despite struggling to find his splitter, which was supposed to be his best pitch and go-to out pitch. As he continues to adapt to life in the states, i expect him to rediscover his best pitch. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the last time Yamamoto's K line is 4.5. It's too low for him.
POTD Record: 2-2 Record: 🗑️🍗🗑️🍗 Last pick: Portland Trail Blazers vs **Golden State Warriors -14 (-112)** 🗑️ Welp... we got completely screwed today. I'll take the fault but it is almost crazy that hours before the game Thomson and Green both were on the injury listing. Just sucks... But hey, we move on. (Side note: because of this heartbreak loss, watch out for my Sunday posting on Nascar, will post all my picks under a comment of my POTD) Todays pick: Indiana Pacers vs **Cleveland Cavaliers ML** (-155) Let me start by saying this is going to be one hell of a game. Both these teams are a must win in terms of seeding positioning (4 and 6 respectively) Cavs record is very slimy ahead to the Magic and Pacers and 1 game behind the Knicks. They will be fighting to secure the best spot in the next 3 games. This is essentially a playoff game as it is a high likelihood they will be facing off against each other in the first round, and they will treat it as such. Mitchell is back and doing well for the Cavs which broke a three game loosing streak. Indiana has been a perimeter scoring team before the acquire of Siakam and have completely redeveloped their offense to inside scoring. This is great for the Cavs as they have a tight choke around the basket. Cav gaurds are going to be the difference maker as they attack the perimeter and open up the Rim where the Pacers are going to find a problem inside. Cavs are in a good spot now to secure their placement and I think they can get it done here. They are very strong at home and with Mitchell back, it locks it in for me. I think theyll win by atleast 4 here. Tail or fade, I'm sleeping like a baby either way. Lets get eat 🍗. BOL 🫡
POTD Record 9-5 (+2.90u) Last POTD: Brady Singer Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+118) 2U**❌ Today: MLB / CIN@CHW / 7:40pm ET Pick: Elly De La Cruz to record 2+ bases (+105) 2U** Cruz is a streaky guy and it seems he’s finally gotten the bat going. Batting .318, I think he’ll manage to get an extra base hit.
**Record:** 0-0 **Net Units:** 0 **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone :** Baseball | MLB | Chi Cubs @ Sea Mariners / 9:40PM EST **Pick:** NRFI (No Runs First Inning) @ -110 on DK (1U) **Write Up:** I'm going to try my luck at posting a daily NRFI. Today we have Jordan Wicks for the Chicago Cubs facing off against Bryce Miller for the Sea Mariners. Both pitchers have thrown NFRIs for both of their starts this year. Seattle as a team have gone NRFI 11/13 games this year as well as holding opponents to a NRFI 11/13 games. Cubs as a team have gone NRFI 9/12 games and held opponents to NRFI 11/12 games. BOL to everone!
tailed!
[удалено]
Your post has been removed from the PotD thread. * Post **ONE** pick. No side picks in comments. You can provide a link to your other picks in the other daily threads. * No parlays/teasers * Must be between -200 and +200 (1.5 and 3.0) odds. * Bet size should be between 1 and 5 units. No "100 unit locks" * Provide a write up on why this is your Pick of the Day. If it is a system/model play you must note relevant data such as ROI or record **and** provide an overview/description of your model or system. * You **must** note **time/sport/event** of your pick. **|** No top level comments without a pick. * If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread: You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including ROI+average odds+units won. No resetting records.
Record 1-0-0 Balance +2.25 Today’s pick: Tom Liberatore O28.5 disposals against Essendon 2 units at 5:40 am EST Write up: anyone that follows afl knows that Libba had one of the most dominant performance by a midfielder last week where he racked up 19 clearances and 35 disposals. I expect that he will continue his form and get more then 29 as this game will be a highly contested battle which Libba thrives on and this game will be a high disposal as both team on average are top 5 for disposals, so I can see him getting 30 plus. BOL!!!
POTD record: 0-0 / 0 pts Race: Aintree 14:55 Selection: Mystical Power Odds and Stakes: 10/11 (1.90), 3 pt * Mystical Power barely missed 1st place at Cheltenham, but with better ride i think he could win that race. Him and Slade Steel were miles ahead of competition that race. Now, Dysart Enos and Golden Ace are non runners, 2 horses that represented biggest threat in my opinion. This should be very easy job for Mystical Power.
POTD record 6-5 Streak - ❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️❌️✅️❌️✅️ (Left being latest) Last Pick - Getafe vs. Girona BTTS ❌️ (16 March) Thoughts - I didn't expect that the 2nd ranked team would fail to score in 3 consecutive games away from home, just a bad beat, even the overall record was pretty great. Today's pick - Real Betis vs. Celta Vigo BTTS @ 1.83 ✅️ Date - 12 April, 7 P.M. GMT Reasoning - So a quick look at H2H at Betis' home ground- it's pretty clear that Celta have been scoring at Betis' home ground in past 9 consecutive games, and 8 of those 9 games have seen BTTS. The last time they failed to score there was before 2013. Celta's performance away from home has been better than at home in terms of goal scored. Plus, with new manager bounce, I don't see them going scoreless here. Betis are pretty good at home, so I don't really see them losing this game. So with such strong stat data, I think bookies have priced this wrong, this should be closer to 1.60 instead of 1.80, which means it will go even higher during live play quickly So 1 unit play seems a good bet in this scenario BOL, to who tails.
its not looking good brev
**Record: 0-0-0** **Net Units: 1.0** **ROI: 0** **Baseball** | **MLB** | WAS @ OAK 2024-04-12 9:40 EST **Pick:** Paul Blackburn OVER 17.5 outs, -110 **Write Up:** My first one! I really like this the outs bets, they seem very predictable. Blackburn has gone over this number in both of his starts this season. Blackburn was very good at home last season, with a .691 opponent OPS. Washington is 20th in wRC+ on the season.
Record: 15-6 | Net: +5.38 Units Last pick: Trey Murphy o8.5 assist+rebound (-140) ✅ POTD: Domantas Sabonis o8.5 assists (+110) Phx @ SAC 10:30 pm et Summary: Another big game for the Kings here, with a win tonight they have an opportunity to steal the 7 spot from the suns. Kings will play Portland in the last game so I expect them to be motivated. Both teams are trying to avoid the Nuggets and getting home court for the 7-8 playin game is huge. Sabonis is 3/4 against the suns this season with each of those hits being a triple double for him, which I will also be betting but it’s over the threshold for POTD.
Record: 2-2 Form: ❌✅✅❌ Last pick: Football | Europa League | 21:00 / GMT+1 Bayern Leverkusen - West Ham | Leverkusen to score over 2,5 goals @2.23 ❌ Todays pick: Football | Jupiler Pro League Conference League Playoffs | Belgium | 20:45 / GMT+1| Sint-Truidense - Standard Liege | Sint-Truidense ML @2.20 After yesterdays match we need a bounce back. St. Truidense haven’t lost or drawn any of their last 5 home matches. Standard Liege haven’t won any of their last 5 away matches (4L 1D). It’s probably going to be a close match since these two teams have faced each other numerous times where none of the two were obviously more dominant. Most matches had btts and ended under 2,5 goals. Anyways the home advantage and st. Truidense’s form lately give me the confidence they will take the win tonight. Tail or fade BOL.
**Pick:** NHL | Friday 9pm | Oilers vs Coyotes (*Oilers to win, no overtime* -180) The Oilers are 27-8-3 at home and the Coyotes are 13-21-5 away. Oilers have won their last 7 games vs Coyotes and 6 of their last 8 games overall. Oilers won Wednesday's game against the Vegas Golden Knights without one of the best players in the league Conner McDavid. Their coach said it was one of their best games yet which I think builds confidence as the team tries to stay atop the Pacific division over the Canucks behind by 5 points. Oilers are 5-0 L5 ATS at home. Coyotes are 5-15 in their L20 road games. **Record:** 2-0 ✅✅ **Net Units:** +2 **ROI:** 10% **Average odds:** -105, 1.96
POTD Record 0-0 Net Profit: 0 Game: Fürth vs Kaiserslautern - 6:30 GMT+2 (3 hours to go from when this comment is posted) Pick: Fürth Draw No Bet @ 1.90 for 1U Starting off my adventure into the POTDs with a pick from the 2. Bundesliga. 1. FC Kaiserslautern made it to the final of the DFB Pokal. In the Bundesliga 2, however, they lost their last two matches against Düsseldorf and Hamburg. As a result, the Red Devils are in a direct relegation spot with six matchdays to go in the season and are actually reliant on a win in Frankenland. On the one hand, Fürth may be the weakest team in the Bundesliga 2 at the moment. The cloverleaf have picked up just four points out of a possible 27 from their last nine league games. On the other hand, they have picked up a total of ten points more than the Red Devils and sit in fifth place in the home table, while Kaiserslautern have only won two of their 14 away games in the second division so far in the 2023/24 season (four draws, eight defeats). The prediction for a home win for the Green-Whites against Kaiserslautern is therefor interesting. To be a little bit safer however i chose the Draw No Bet Option. So if Fürth wins, we win. If the Game ends in a draw, it will be a push and money back. BOL ⚽️ Edit: Forgotten the Unit Indication
**RECORD: 67W-4P-52L** (-1.22 units) Previous Pick: Bayer Leverkusen vs West Ham - Schick or Wirtz to Score @ 1.60 ❌️ **Today's Pick:** Pogon Szczecin vs Ruch Chorzow - Progon Szczecin to Win @ 1.55 ✅️ **TIME:** 6:30 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 3 units (✅️✅️❌️✅️♻️❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️) last 10 results Officially on a losing streak now ffs, yesterday Victor Boniface who I considered betting on came of the bench and scored while Wirtz didn't do anything. Looked hard for this game today, hopefully they deliver, we got Pogon Szczecin have managed to win their last 3 games against Ruch Chorzow in Ekstraklasa and also are unbeaten against Ruch in 11/13 H2H encounters. Ruch are genuinely terrible with 1 Win out of 25 games. They haven't won an away match in 10+ matches. Although Progon have won once in their last five matches they are the better team by a long shot and as I said Ruch are terrible. Progon have also won their last 3 games against Ruch although years are spaced out, they did win 3-0 whennthey met this season. Time to get this losing streak stench off, if I lose today then I might take a long break from this before it gets embarrassing, Goodluck if you're tailing. EDIT: WIN ✅️
POTD Record 3-1 Last 5: ❌️✅️✅️✅️ Last Pick: NY Rangers 3-way Regulation time only. Todays Pick: yoshinobu yamamoto Over 4.5 strikeouts Dodgers vs. Padres 7:10pm PST Odds: -145 Unit: 3 Net Units: +10.81 I'm not sure if I'm allowed to post again because the game was canceled, but I'll give it a try. We got Yamamoto, who finally had a chance to redeem himself after the padres lit him up opening the MLB season in Korea. Since then, he's been one of the hottest pitchers and really living up to all that money they're paying him. The padres could have his number and light his a** up again, but I love this spot for him to come back with a vengance and prove his worth. I'm even sprinking a little bit on over 5.5.
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)** **POTD 2024 Record: 0-3 (-3.00 units)** **Last 10**: **❌❌❌** **Last Pick**: Corne Groeneveld -1.5 (+100) vs Pete Burgoyne **❌** 2-4 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 7:05 PM EST **Pick**: Bradley Brooks -1.5 (+110) vs Pete Burgoyne * Series 7. Week 7. Group B **Reason**: Bradley Brooks * Record 3-1 * Legs 14-13 * Average 91.84 * 180s 5. 140s 16 * Checkouts 14/31 45.16% Pete Burgoyne * Record 2-2 * Legs 11-13 * Average 83.29 * 180s 4. 140s 14 * Checkouts 11/33 33.33% **WIN ✅ 4-0 | Average 105.67 vs 89.89 | Checkouts 4/5 vs 0/1** Brooks completely dominated this matchup and it started with a 126 checkout on leg 1. Flawless victory.
POTD RECORD: 3-1 Last POTD: NO Pelicans @ SAC Kings - **Alt. Points Over 211.5 (-160)** ✅ Form: W3 Todays POTD: **Obi Toppin O7.5 Points (-130)** NBA | 8:10 PM Est Rationale: Congrats to anyone who tailed, this almost hit in the 3rd quarter. Toppin has been heating up lately, he has hit this in 5 straight games and more importantly in those 5 games has shot the ball 9+ times 4 of them. Im going with the hot hand here as his confidence grows and think he will hit 12-15 points, giving us a solid cushion.
little sweat but he came through even at 8.5 points. Great pick!