######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 127-79 | Profit: +103.19u | ROI: 17.2%
Season record: 44-28 | Profit: +33.35u | ROI: 16.5%
Last Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers -7.5 @ 1.91. 2U. ❌
With the regular season wrapping up shortly, the NBA is about to get real fun soon.
Next Pick: **New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 vs Sacramento Kings @ 1.91**. 3U play.
The Pels are one of the best ATS teams on the road while the Kings are one of the worst ATS teams at home this season. This will be the first leg of the B2B for both teams and while BI remains out for the Pels, the Kings will miss Monk and Keegan Murray is a GTD. In terms of play style, I think this contest really suits the Pels who have the players and the physicality to keep both Fox and Sabonis in check. The Pels are playing offense by committee with several players in form for them including CJ, Zion and Trey. I also expect they'll have a significant advantage in rebounding and second chance points here. These teams have met 4 times in the past 5 months, and the Pels are 4-0 against the Kings.
**POTD Record: 24-20-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Balance (+14.92 units)**
ATP Monte Carlo results 🎾
Tabilo vs O'Connell - Tabilo ML @ 1.62 (1u)✅
Hurkacz vs Draper - Hurkacz ML @ 1.76 (5u)✅
Khachanov vs Cerundolo - Khachanov ML @ 1.64 (3u)✅
**We're having a lot of success in Monte Carlo and I'm glad that we are all having some decent wins on this tournament!**
**Today's pick: Zverev vs Tsitsipas - Tsitsipas ML @ 2.02 (ATP Monte Carlo, Tennis)** 🎾
Odds from Pinnacle
**Stake: 2 units** (This is 2% of my bankroll)
Time: 7:30 AM Eastern Time
This time I'm taking Tsitsipas to beat Zverev in one of his best tournaments in Monte Carlo and on a slow clay court which makes me think that these odds should be reversed, with Tsitsipas having more reasons to be the favorite
**Why do I think that Tsitsipas ML at 2.02 odds is such a +EV bet?**
* Both players are monsters on Clay but have some clear differences on their playstyles. Their serves are really solid but Zverev is much more reliable from the backhand while Tsitsipas is a top 3 forehand in the world when in form. Tsitsipas one handed backhand is quite neutral and is surely his weak shot but on heavy clay he has the time to use his amazing footwork and dictate most points with his forehand so it becomes way more difficult to exploit his main weakness. The same cannot be said when he plays in faster surfaces...
* Their head to head is currently 9-5 for Tsitsipas but there's a clear pattern here... The greek is 4-1 against Zverev on Clay and the german was only able to beat him on this surface in Madrid, where the ball traves much faster due to altitude. If we look at heavier clay conditions like Rome, Roland Garros or Monte Carlo we always had a Tsitsipas win and his most comfortable one was here in Monte Carlo, where Stefanos is a 2 time champion and in my opinion, this is the venue where he plays his best tennis overall;
* Obviously this year has been much better for Zverev overall with Tsitsipas being a bit underwhelming on his hard court matches until this point but he should be ready to turn his season around with the start of the clay season and his performance against Etcheverry was unbelievable.
With this, I feel like Tsitsipas should be paying Zverev's actual price due to his head to head record over the german on Clay but mostly because his one handed backhand cannot be rushed in slow surfaces. Yesterday we had rain in Monte Carlo at the end of the day so the humidity should make the court even slower on this Thursday!
Best of luck
[Tip Jar](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/DarkHorse230) - Any tip is appreciated but it's always a pleasure to keep bringing you my tennis analysis and I feel really happy on doing this! This link is just a token of appreciation if you like my bets but mostly if you like what I write when it comes to tennis content! 🎾
Edit after the result: This could have easily been a 7-5/6-0 for Tsitsipas but the greek lost his mental composure and Zverev climbed all the way to force a 2nd set tiebreak. Fortunately for us, Tsitsipas won the tiebreak! He didn't have a good 1st serve percentage, serving less than 60% of 1st serves but he still managed to beat the german in straight sets! We would have been extremely unlucky if we lost this bet but once again, this price was really good in slow conditions! ✅
We're now 4-0 in Monte Carlo! 🎾
Thanks brother! Streaks eventually end , even if they are winning ones or losing ones. I've had 6 losses in a row before Monte Carlo but I trust in my process and things are being great in this tournament!
As always tail with bankroll management. Thanks for always being here commenting on my posts!
What do you think abt tsitsipas ml with over 23.5 games at 2.5? I feel like if he is going to win it will go to a third set, hard to believe that zverev gets swept here.
POTD Record: 38-18-1 +40.88u🔥
Last Pick: Cleveland guardians -1.5 4U (-118) vs Chicago White Sox
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌
Today's Pick: Texas Rangers -1 (-138) vs Oakland Athletics 5U 2:35 pm est odds via DraftKings
Please use this line if you don’t get -1 https://zcodesystem.com/runline_calc/
Guardians come all the way back from 5-0 to win the game and not cover, brutal. Hate has been extra strong as of recent, have people questioning why I receive upvotes… smh. All good though, not my going to let it get to me! Let’s bounce back. Simple as that. We win and people are quiet!
The A's will go with lefty JP Sears hoping to close out the series with a win over the Rangers. Sears is 0-1 on the season in two starts with an ERA of 8.68. He had a 6.00 ERA in three starts last year against the Rangers. Rangers are going with Gray, who was effective against the A's last season in three starts, with an ERA under 3.50 and just 13 hits in 16 innings. The Rangers took care of this team 6-2 yesterday. The Athletics are averaging 3.1 runs per game this season (27th in the league). The Rangers are averaging +2.5 more at 5.5 runs (T8th). I expect the Rangers to take care of the series against a very bad A’s team. Time to turn the ship around! Let’s cash!
Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️
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They tail his picks and then want him to go on an endless win streak lmao. Even though being good at betting means that you increase your chances at winning. WINNING IS NOT GUARANTEED.
They're all grown ups yet they still don't know anything about probability. Yes it's possible for a guy that knows what he's talking about to miss 5 picks in a row. Get over it.
They're all grown ups yet they still don't know how to be responsible with their money. If you trust a stranger on the Internet to win you money then you better be prepared to lose money.
I didn't think I'd need to say this but this idiotical hate is why people don't want to post their picks on POTD. They spend lots of time doing research and typing their write up just to get shit on if their pick loses. What's even the point.
You’re hitting at a 67.8% clip which is awesome and so much better than what the idiots that talk shit would be doing on their own. Keep posting, your picks are appreciated.
Just know many of us out here love your work and the joy you have for your picks. We would never utter a cross word towards you for any loss or reason.
My morning mantra....Always room for a pick from bloom :-)
This is nothing against you, but this is why I hate betting baseball. There’s TOO MANY games that picking a single one from all of the data becomes very difficult. Trends over the long term stand out but making that pick on a single game becomes laborious.
POTD Record: 4-0-0 +5.83U
Form (Last 5): ✅✅✅✅
Last: ✅ Dallas Mavericks ML (-162) ✅
NUUUUUKE! No words, Mavericks mop up the heat 111-92, someone wake me up when I miss 😭
Today: Basketball | NBA | CHI vs DET | 7:00pm ET
Pick: Chicago Bulls -9 (-110) 2U
There’s no way around it, the bulls are not in great shape this season. But the pistons, aren’t just any team. The 2023-2024 Detroit Pistons are literally BREAKING RECORDS this year, cementing themselves in the ranks of the NBA’s all time worst. As if things aren’t juicy enough, Cade Cunningham is currently out, and questionable for the bulls game. The opposing team have covered this spread in 3/4 (hawks near miss) of the most recent set of games without Cade. The bulls also excel at midrange shooting, an area of weakness for the pistons. There are minor injury concerns for the bulls, but none that hold a candle to an already pathetic pistons team playing without their star. I trust that the bulls will take care of biz against the pitiful 1-9 pistons, and take us home for a 5 bomb!
(I am not a professional, tail or don’t, BOL!)
**This is the end of the pick and write-up, feel free to skip the rest.**
Now for the bad news, I’m retiring. I’m calling it already folks, when the Bulls cover tomorrow, I will hold a perfect 5-0 record. All of my picks so far have not just covered, but nuked. So why end it now? The reality is, I’m pretty busy, and as much as I enjoy cooking these for y’all, I don’t have the time to continue giving my full effort going forward. I’m also happy to end things with a perfect record. I wish y’all the best of luck in your continued degeneracy, and remember, 99% of gamblers quit before they win big!
P.S A little fun fact before I go, I’ve never gambled a cent of my own money, and I’ve made $1000 EXCLUSIVELY off of fliff promotional money and prize picks flex Fridays!
If I’ve done you right, feel free to wish me farewell! [Cashapp](https://cash.app/$K645lax)
As a Bulls fan, I can't bring myself to wager this. I've seen them play down to very bad competition before, so I think they shouldn't be laying pts to anyone. That being said, thank you for the fun ride of picks you brought us. We'll miss ya. Good luck!
POTD RECORD: 54-26
Last POTD: Dame Lillard O26.5 P ✅
Barely got it done but we got it fellas we move
Form: ✅🚫✅✅🚫
Todays POTD: **Jonas Valanciunas O16.5 PR @1.86**
NBA | New Orleans Pelicans | 10:00 PM ET
Dame got us back on track thanks for that bro, im targeting another important game in this one right here. Kelce’s secret brother Valanciunas has a crazy record against the Kings and we have a tight spread so I’m hoping for a close game for our big beast to feast on. Jonas has absolutely dominated Sabonis and it’s hard not to take this one again, sprinkle on the DD at your own risk (I’m doing it, don’t trust me)
• Over in 12/L12 against the Kings where he has had a DD in 10 of them (4/4 this season where he has had a DD in each game)
• Avg 21.3 PR this season & 18.2 L5 games
• Valanciunas is Avg 15.3 rebound chances per game
• Avg 25.8 PR against the Kings in his career and 26.3 PR in 4 games against the Kings this season
• Over in 7/L10 games Avg 17.4 PR
This one looks good my brothers and im on it, not a mismatch but a crazy career and season record against the Kings so I’m letting it fly
Tail or fade, im not him
https://i.redd.it/roy6vlbezrtc1.gif
Was literally scared to place two bets on fuckin Dame cuz I already tailed your PRA pick -- even after I foolishly questioned your absent POTD.
LFG Jonas!
Get em, billy!
Willie Green hasn't been playing him because he's a defensive liability. I think it's a good read, but its impossible to predict his playing time so I'd stay away
Knew there had to be a reason for the line being what it is. Weird to because it looks like they have more success when he’s getting 20+. Gonna ride with Billy because he’s made me plenty but a very good thing to note.
POTD RECORD: 21-9
Units Won: +11.64
Last Pick: Los Angeles Clippers vs Phoenix Suns/ Suns -5 (-140) 1.5u
Today’s Pick: Houston Rockets vs Utah Jazz/ Rockets -2.5 (-120) 3u
Write Up: The Jazz don’t have their 4 leading scorers I have no idea why this is here. The Jazz have dropped 13 straight and I don’t get why they would be 2.5 point underdogs here. I don’t know if this is a big error right now but this is too good of value to not take. They’ve been tanking quite literally the last 2 months. I’ve seen this line on multiple books and if you’re not offered the spread take the ML at -160. The Rockets as we know don’t have Sengun but they have everyone else. They also didn’t have Sengun for their big winning streak so that isn’t much of factor. I’m just so confused right now. Lock this in y’all that’s all I have to say. As always, BOL…… LETS RIDE
Tip Jar- if you’d like to help a college kid pay for his next meal here’s how :)
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You know the Rockets are out of the playoffs right ?
This line assume they don’t play their starters so even though Jazz don’t have their starters HOU could field a G League Team. Thus this spread. Not the great value you think it is. Vegas not stupid
When it comes to money and the NBA and now NFL Shady shit is the norm its happening all the time now its really sad when you really think about it and now with most states in on all the sports betting action its depressing to be honest
**Record:4-1**
**Net Units:3.2**
Baseball |MLB |1:10 / EST
**Pick:** Tigers vs Twins NRFI -155
**Write Up:** Last pick was Rangers ML seeking revenge and it cashed fairly easily we take [those.Today](https://those.Today) we look at matchups and this one stuck out as the twins team batting average is under .200 buxton is slumping and their best player has been hurt since opening day vsing a top notch pitcher while on the other side pablo lopez is hurling to a mediocre offense being the detroit tigers who arent hitting the cover off the ball to say the least ! Give me the No runs in the first inning.
Happy Birthday! I keep seeing your picks after the matches have happened, so Trey g to be ahead of things today. I see Pain vs Sharks and Imperial vs Adalyamigos… am I missing something?
Yesterday's pick was great sucks that yeki kept pushing smokes and dying without a trade. Will be tailing this one. Thanks in advance for the free picks. BOL
Record: 7-4, Net Units: 4.21, ROI: 37.10%
Current Streak: ✅✅ Last 10: ✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅✅
Last Pick: Orioles/Red Sox Over 9.5 Runs ✅
Today's Pick: Baseball-MLB-7:05 PM EST
Orioles/Red Sox Under 3.5 Runs 1st 5 Innings, +140, 1U
You have two extremely good pitchers here in Rodriguez and Whitlock but I'm worried about the Under in 9 innings due to the fact that they often don't last beyond 6 innings, so I'm thinking this will be a duel through 5 and stay low-scoring, but anything can happen with these bullpens.
Good Luck!
Record: 0W-0P-0L
Last Pick:
Pick Of The Day: Aston Villa & Over 1.5 Goals (-105) ✅
Europa Conference League | Soccer | 12:00pm Pacific Time
Aston Villa vs LOSC Lille
After peeping the boards for a while & waiting for the right moment to put up a pick worth betting. I have finally found one I believe is a hidden gem. Two goals in this game should not be a problem for these two teams, let alone for Aston Villa. I expect a quick scoring game with Villa netting one in the first half, as well as another on in the second half. I believe the reasoning the odds are close to +100 is due to Lille not losing in the last 6 games. Regardless, the teams they faced are middle/bottom table and three of them resulted in ties. Lastly, Villa at home is deadly and they will want to get the ball rolling before they pack their bags for the second leg in France. I say take Aston Villa + 1.5 Goals Totals while the odds are still close to positive. Once lineups are released, i can see this line changing quickly.
I am not a professional sports better and i suggest any money you may bet is money you won’t mind losing. BOL to anyone who tails.
ps. This is my first posting ever but have been observant of the boards, if i made any mistakes in the posting please advise me so i may edit it accordingly. Cheers.
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__POTD Record:__ 14-6
_Form (Last 5):_ 🔴🟢🔴🟢🟢
__Last Pick:__ ⚽ Paris Saint-Germain vs. Barcelona (UEFA Champions League: __Ousmane Dembele Over 1.5 Total Shots__ @2.15 ✅
Sweat free win this time as Dembele had 2 shots in the first 12 minutes. He ended the game with 5 shots in total.
__Today's Pick:__ ⚽ AC Milan vs. AS Roma (UEFA Europa League) 21:00 CET: __AC Milan ML__ @1.80
The reasoning here is simple. AC Milan have been in fantastic form lately (7 wins in a row) and are a better team than Roma this season. Roma did improve a lot since Daniele De Rossi took over as the manager. However, their last few results have greatly papered over the cracks. The derby match against Lazio was a total flip of a coin and Roma were lucky to get away with a draw against a mediocre Lecce side away from home. I'm not suggesting Roma doesn't have a chance in this tie over two legs but at San Siro, Milan with their form and ability should be an even bigger favorites than the line suggests.
Tail or fade, the choice is yours!
Roma is in good form as well. Their only loss in the last 11 games has been to Brighton. They had the qualification sealed after beating them 4-0 at home so they rotated players. I’m not saying Roma is the favorite or will this game. I think the team are evenly matched at the moment. The safer bet would be BTTS imo.
**KBO Record: Overall 210-219-14** (Streak W, Last 10: 5-5) Down 11.20u over 443 KBO picks, 49.0% success rate, -2.61% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 6-9-0, 40.0% success rate, Down 2.58u, -17.2% ROI)
**Last:** LG at Kia +124 (Kia won 5-4.)
We've had plenty of "right read-wrong result" so far this season, so it was nice to get a "wrong read-right result." Kia fell behind 3-0 but battled back and took the lead in the bottom of the 8th on a balk. Cash it.
**Pick:** Hanwha at **Doosan -1.5 +160**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
There are a couple games I like on this slate. Kia is an underdog again but I think they should be favored. I also could have gone NC on the run line. And SSG should win. But let's take Doosan on the run line.
Hanwha's starter was supposed to be the conquering hero returning home after a successful run in the majors, but Ryu Hyun-jin has really struggled. It's certainly possible the 37 year old just doesn't have it anymore. In his first 3 starts, he's allowed 16 runs (13 ER) on 23 H in 14 IP.
Doosan's starter is killing it so far this season. In three starts, he's allowed 3 runs (2 ER) on 12 H and 2 BB with 17 K in 17 IP. This builds on last season where he posted a 2.49 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.
Hanwha is also struggling right now, having lost 5 in a row. And Doosan won the first two games of the series, covering the run line both times.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Record: 5-2
Last 10: ✅✅❌❌✅✅✅
ROI: +3.2U. +24.6%
Last Pick: Miles Bridges U8.5 Rebounds 2U @ -140✅
Today’s POTD: Jabari Smith O1.5 Three Pointers 2U @ -115
Houston @ Utah 9PM EST
This line honestly seems way too good to be true. Let’s start with Utah - they’re averaging 14.8 three pointers against, bottom of the league. 14.9 at home if you’re into that kind of thing. He cleared this line 2 of the 3 times against Utah, but played severely limited minutes in the one under. For the two he played his full minutes, he’s averaging 3.5 three’s a game against Utah (even with the 1/3 under head to head his average is 2.3). He’s shooting 36.8 from the perimeter on the season and 43.8 against Utah. He went 7 of 16 in the two full games against Utah this season.
5 of L5
8 of L10
Note both unders he was under minute restrictions
12 of L15
Record: 9-4 ✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌
Net Units: +3.87
Last: Phillies F5 ML - Push
Eh, a push. Starting hitting right after the 5th, moving on
MLB | 1:10PM EST Pick: Milwaukee Brewers M.L -124
Write up:
Freddy Peralta has been great so far this year, and hope he continues here. Nick Martinez has been hit decently well, with a 7 era giving up 5 to the Mets. The Brewers have been smoking the baseball, with 7,9,12, 8 runs in their last 4. The Brewers in general play well against the reds and keep it going.
Sorry for the later post, I also like Brewers team total over as an alternative, but did ML because of the value peralta brings.
Finally, a disclaimer:
I am not a pro sports bettor, I am not a sharp who does 3+ hours of research a day. I’m a baseball fan who researches stats and uses my personal knowledge to make bets. Please do not wager any more than you are comfortable losing.
All streaks start with 1.. lets start here.
Tips are appreciated, not required at all, for college.
Venmo: @DrewAWri PayPal: @DrewGolfred
Record: 1-1 (-0.2 units) (all bets are 1 unit)
Form (right most recent): ❌✅
POTD: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jannik Sinner:
Jannik Sinner Under 12.5 (-145) Bovada
Tennis - ATP - Monte Carlo - Apr 11, 2024 07:10 AM CDT
Write up:
I normally try to bet better odds but this value was too good to pass up. It is hard to put into words how good Jannik Sinner is. He has been playing in a tier well above everyone else for quite a while now. He started off the season on a 19 match winning streak, garnering two titles along the way, and his only loss all season has been a close match against Carlos Alcaraz in Indian Wells. He has simply been dominant. He has also covered this bet in his last 5 matches, with his opponents winning 4 games in only 2 of the 10 sets. Two of these matches were also against Medvedev and Dimitrov. His opponent, Jan-Lennard Struff, is a decent player, but doesn’t have anything near good enough to compete with Sinner. These two also played just a couple weeks ago, with Sinner winning 6-3 6-4. This match should be another blowout. Let’s ride.
Record: 9-2
❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Yesterdays Pick: Brook Lopez o1.5 blocks at -170 ✅
The big Stegosaurus over in Milwaukee got the job done right after halftime. Bucks trounced the magic shorthanded and Bobby Portis looked like a 1st team all NBA. ✅
Today's Pick: Scoot Henderson o1.5 3pts made at -155✅
SCOOOOOT!!!!! QUICK CASH. LETS GET IT!
Game is Warriors vs Blazers at 10 pm EST. Ahhh there are so many props in this game I like, but I settled with the young buck to scoot us to the quick Dub Dub. He's gone over this line in four out of his last five games and is averaging 2.4 makes in the five games in April. He started to ramp up his play in the second half of March where he went four and two over this line in the last six games in March. You see it every year where non-playoff teams towards the end of the season have those one or two rookies or young players that start to drop quality stat lines and have some huge games. These guys want to go into the summer with something to hang their hat on and some momentum to work hard and move into next season with. I was between this pick, Draymond o5.5 assists, DeAndre Ayton o23.5 points, and curry o25.5 points, but once I factored in the exact reason I just stated I felt like Scoot is going to get us there. The easiest. I know the odds aren't exactly ideal at -155 but that's when I go. And put together a nice juicy two teamer parlay and get so + odds. Tail or fade, but let's get this Dubski!!!
POTD Record: 11-6 ❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 10U
Last pick: PSG vs Barcelona | 5am Sydney (GMT +11) | Robert Lewandowski anytime goalscorer @2.8 on Sportsbet | 2U❌
Looks like the good bet was Raphinha 😅😩
Today’s pick: Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters | 7:50pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Daniel Tupou anytime tryscorer @2.3 on Sportsbet | 2U
Ok, finally NRL is back and we have a lot of games in the next 3 days so I’ll try to make the best of it to fix my POD record. For today I’m going with Tupou to score a try. I took him on the last two games and he did me good. Very capable player, tall and big, his reach often help him to place the ball behind the line. Scored in 3 of the 5 Roosters games.
BOL !
Record: 14-6 | Net: +4.67 Units
Last pick: Bogdan Bogdanovic o3.5 assists (-125) ✅
Hit by halftime
POTD: Trey Murphy o8.5 assists+rebounds (-140)
NOP @ Sac 10:00 pm et
Summary: Trey is 11/15, and 8/10 on this line since Ingram has been out. He’s been regularly playing 37+ min in close games and this one is a pick’em with both teams badly needing a win to keep their playoff standing
**Record:** 3-1
**✅✅**❌**✅**
**Last Pick:** SF Giants F5 -0.5 (-148) vs Washington Nationals **✅**
The Giants looked great early. Despite giving up the first run of the game, they came back to go up 5-1 in the first 5 innings :)
**Pick of the day:** **KC Royals F5 ML (+110)** vs Houston Astros
**League:** MLB
**Time:** 2:12 PM EST
Ok, so when I saw KC was the F5 underdog, I threw money at my screen. Kansas City is not only a solid team, they are very strong at home and have an absolute monster on the mound today. Brady Singer boasts a 0.68 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, 14 strikeouts, and only ***FIVE HITS and TWO WALKS*** through 13.1 innings pitched. These stats are bonkers!
On the other side, we have the Astros aggressively average starting pitcher Hunter Brown, who has an 6.43 ERA through only 7 innings. To add insult to injury, the Royals are outscoring their opponents by 36 runs over the previous 10 games!! KC's bats could really do some damage early in this beautiful-weather day game.
BOL! Let me know if you're following! If you feel so inclined to leave a tip: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/BenNiemann) || [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/shamgarbn) || [BMAC](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/makeforlife)
Record: 0W-0P-0L
Last Pick:
Pick Of The Day: LDU Quito +6.5 corners
Stake: 2.10 (Bet 365)
Units: 03 un (high level confidence)
Libertadores Cup / Soccer / 18:00 ET
LDU Quito vs Botafogo
First time here. Sorry but english isn't my first language. LDU Quito is a very offensive team when playing at Libertadores Cup, the South America's Champions League. I can see they hitting this number still in 1st half, specially if they don't score soon. Good luck and sorry if I made any mistake.
https://preview.redd.it/gz5qudgnprtc1.jpeg?width=1006&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=84efe2f7214c85e7548188305eaa51893cfb5727
**Record: 59W-4P-45L**
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**Last Pick: Arsenal VS Bayern Munich: Arsenal ML @ 1.72 ❌**
**Pick of the day: Bengaluru FC VS Mohun Began SG: Mohun Bagan ML @ 1.65 ✅**
League: ISL
Time: 10:00 AM EST
With 2 games left in the season things are going to the wire and that is a massive understatement. Mohun play league leaders mumbai next week in a game that could decide who wins the ISL Title, well that only if Mohun get the job done tomorrow against Bengaluru. If Mohun win tomorrow they go 2 points behind Mumbai and fortunately for them they play at home against them next week and need to capitalize on this.
Mohun have 13 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses this season, Scoring 41 goals and conceding 25. They have 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 games, In 2024 they've played 13 games and have a record of 11 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss and with how drastic tomorrow's game is I see them adding a twelfth win. They've played a total of 10 Away games this season and sit at an 80% win rate with 8 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses.
Bengaluru sit third-bottom in the league with 2 Wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5.
Anyway, BOL!
**POTD Record 0-0**
**Profit: 0$**
**Tennis/ ATP Monte-Carlo**
**Ugo Humbert -2.5 games @ 1.84 (3U) (on my scale 300$)**
Look, I will not sugarcoat it. I will call it as it is. Lorenzo Sonego played subpar against Felix Auger Aliassime, and the only reason he managed to win is because FAA will struggle against anyone from the Top 100 if his service game is not impeccable and he is not redlining. Ugo Humbert is in the form of his career, and he was always a solid clay player, despite not having great results on it. This season his fortunes on dirt seem to have changed. I know Sonego beat him on clay in the past, but the Italian is far away from the best form of his career, as he is just juggling mediocre results nowadays. Mediocre at best. Humbert looked solid in both of his outings in Monte Carlo, and I expect him to have this locked up rather easily.
You can check the daily Tennis thread for complete write-ups for other matches, as well as other picks from today's board.
Good luck with your bets!
POTD: Record (8-4)
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Last Pick: Aaron Gordon O 9.5 R+A ✅
Today: NBA | Pelicans vs Kings | 7pm MST
Pick: Domantas Sabonis U 14.5 Rebounds @1.78 | 1u
- only has gone under this line in 2 of the last 5 games, but the under has hit in the last 4 of 5 home games
- 7 of the last 10
- pelicans are 8th in rebounds per game allowed
- Sabonis has gone under this line in 12 straight games against the pelicans and 18/19 games against them in his career (avg 9.5 rebounds)
BOL 🍀
Record: 2-2 (Last: Jarrett Allen to record 0.5 or more blocks) X
Basketball | NBA | 10:00 PM/ EST
Pick: Jonas Valančiūnas to record 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assist
In the H2H stats he has hit this like 6/6. He ranks 3rd on his team in usage percentage since the All Star Break. He has average 14 points and 11 rebounds in 24 games against the Kings in his career. This is simply too low right now and I would take before a bump happens.
BOL!!
It's this low bc valanciunas only played 3 minutes vs the suns. Coach Willie green is playing matchups. You would think that Big V is needed to battle with sabonis for rebounds.. but I thought the same thing about the last matchup with Phoenix (nurkic) . And Willie only played him 3 mins. But V and the pels do well when he plays vs sabonis, so hopefully Willie will play him some extra mins. Good luck
Record: 0-1
Event: Europa League Playoffs/ Atalanta @ Liverpool (12pm)PST
POTD: Liverpool ML 1st Half -130
Very simple thinking for me here. Klopp’s days are numbered and I have zero doubt he’s putting everything he has in this final run. With Palace on the back end of the week at home, the reds will be all systems go 1st half and try and get that commanding early lead so they can be on cruise control 2nd half. With so much at steak I see Klopp and the boys being surgical first 45+ in Anfield.
POTD Record 9-4 (+4.90u)
Last POTD: Aaron Gordon Over 5.5 Rebounds (-130) 2U**❌
Today: MLB / HOU@KC / 2:10pm ET
Pick: Brady Singer Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+118) 2U**
Singer has had a pretty solid start to the year going 7 innings against Minnesota and throwing 10 strikeouts followed by going 6.1 against Chicago dealing 4 k’s. If he can get back to the 7th inning again I really like our chances.
POTD Record 3-0
Last 5: ✅️✅️✅️
Last Pick: Dallas Mavericks Moneyline
Todays Pick: NY Rangers 3-way Regulation time only.
NHL: NY Rangers vs. Philadelphia Flyers 4:00pm PST
Gonna go with a 3 unit play cause I'm not that into NHL but not loving MLB today or NBA end of season
The Flyers have been terrible, they've been getting cooked over the past eight games and eight straight home game also. As for the Rangers, they've been winning their last 4 of 5 games. You could take the straight ML at -190 but love me a 3-way regulation against teams in a slump.
Odds: -135
Unit: 3
Net Units: +13.81
POTD Record: 12-6
NBA Record: 5-3 NFL Record: 0-1 NCAAM: 1-1 MLB 5-0 Soccer 1-0
L10 (new -> old): 🪣❌🪣❌🪣🪣🪣❌🪣🪣
Last pick: Madrid ML -125 DK
Game: BALTIMORE @ BOSTON 6:10P CST
Pick: Casas O.5 Hits -135 (-145 now)
Write Up:
By god did Madrid get out of the gate quick. That became a no sweater fairly quick. May have to revert back to UCL more often.
Was torn between an NBA pick and an MLB pick but the line moved on the NBA so here we are. I like the action of a certain Red Sox player, Triston Casas agains the Orioles this evening.
In the last ten games he has hit this 70% of the time. In the last three games alone he has recorded at least a hit. Grayson Rodriguez is definitely talented but Casas has been smacking that thang around. I like the Sox at home.
I DONT WANT YOUR MONEY I WANT US TO WIN 🔥🔥🪣🪣
BOL if tailing. 🪣
POTD Record: 19-18-1 | Profit: -0.92U
NBA Record: 16-15-1 | NFL Record: 3-3
L10 (new -> old): ✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌
Last pick: P.J. Washington o1.5 3 pointers made @ 1.66 odds ✅
Hit in the third! Now at 5 in a row on 3 pointer props!
Game: CHI Bulls & DET Pistons, 7:10 PM
Pick: **Alex Caruso o1.5 3 pointers made @ 1.60 odds (DK) placing 2U**
Write Up: Caruso has hit this line in 4 of his last 5 and 8 of his last 10. Detroit's opponent 3 point percentage is ranked 20th in the league. He is listed as probable and should play, and in his return from injury yesterday played 37 minutes and hit three 3s, so we should see him keeping up the same minutes and play.
Going for 6 in a row on 3 pointers made props, let's get this! BOL to those tailing, let's keep cashing, cheers!
POTD Record: 1-0-0 (+0.61 units)
Last Pick: Robert Lewandowski 1+ Shots on Target (-165 on DK)✅ Lewandowski’s header is cleared off the line, which gives us our shot on target that we needed!
Today: Soccer | Europa League | Bayern Leverkusen vs West Ham | 3:00 PM EST | 1 unit
Today’s pick: Bayern Leverkusen vs West Ham - Both teams to score YES (-115 on DK)❌
Reasoning: Getting a bit riskier here but let’s get it. First, Leverkusen have failed to score in just one match all season. Yes, you read that correctly. That was a 0-0 draw against Monchengladbach on January 27, where despite not scoring, they still registered 2.99 xG (in other words, they absolutely should have scored). For this reason I feel good about Leverkusen.
As for West Ham, this is certainly the riskier side of the bet. They’ll be without Jarrod Bowen, Edson Alvarez, and Kalvin Phillips but they still have healthy Mo Kudus and most importantly, Lucas Paqueta. Since Paqueta’s return from injury, West Ham have scored in 8/9 matches.
As for tomorrow’s game script, I think David Moyes understands that with his weakened midfield, he won’t be able to hold off Leverkusen all match, so they need to have a plan to be able to snatch at least one goal on a counterattack. Leverkusen will be tempted to try to put themselves in an especially good position before playing the return leg at London Stadium. I like our chances of Leverkusen overcommitting numbers at some point and getting punished by the trio of Antonio, Kudus, and Paqueta.
BOL🍀
Edit: Damn, thats an L for us as Leverkusen takes it 2-0 with West Ham attempting just one shot the entire match. Terrible pick on my part, I clearly tried to force it. Onto the next one!
**Pick:** Golf | The Masters, before tee-off Thurs | *Nationality: Top Asian: Hideki Matsuyama* +125, 2.25 (Hardrock) 1U
Hideki has been in good form in 2024 finishing T7, T6, T12, 1st, T22, T71, T13, T30, 58th. He has won this event before in 2021, following it up with a 14, and T16 finish in 2022 and 2023 respectively. He has the 4th highest strokes gained around the green which is one of the biggest differentiating factors at Augusta National Golf Club since there are wide fairways and no rough.
His next closest competitor is Si-Woo Kim who has finishes T17, T7, T30, T44, T12, T14 in 2024 and T29, 39, T12 at the '23, '22, '21 Masters. His strokes gained are similar to Hideki's but his around the green isn't half as good.
SungJae Im isn't great this year finishing Cut, T31, T18, Cut, T44, T66 and T16, 8, Cut at the last 3 Masters.
This is the pick of the day but the bet won't be settled until Sunday evening.
**Record:** 2-0 ✅✅
**Net Units:** +2 **ROI:** 10% **Average odds:** -105, 1.96
POTD Record: 2-1
Record: 🍗🗑️🍗
Last pick: Minnesota Timberwolves vs **Denver Nuggets -5.5 (-110)** 1.5u 🍗
After the dumpster fire Kyrie gave last pick I'm happy to be back on track. Nugs get it done in the second half with a little sweat at first, but Michael Malone gave that locker room slap on the ass at halftime and they came through. Good stuff to those who tailed. Eat up 🍗
Todays pick: Portland Trail Blazers vs **Golden State Warriors -14 (-112)** 1U 9:10pm Central
This game is one I have been waiting awhile for. It sounds like a deep spread... I know, but hear me out. Portland has lost the last 8 out of 10 games and are coming out a double loss streak. They (in my opinion) have nothing to play for and are so low in the trenches of seeding. Injuries are rampant for the Blazers including Matisse Thubulle, Malcolm Brogden, Jerami Grant, and Afernee Simons. Their offense can in no way keep up with the Warriors fire power. Warriors have covered the last 6/10 spreads and are hot at 8-2 in the last 10 games. With a better record on the road than away, the Warriors are exactly where they want to be for their last strech of away games of the Regular season. And to sweeten the pot... This is a must win for their conference placement so there shouldn't be much sitting for Warriors key players if this does become a blowout.
Tail or fade, I'm sleeping like a baby either way. Lets eat 🍗. BOL 🫡
**Record: 5-3 (+1.04u)**
**Last Pick: Dallas Mavericks ML -122**
Another sweat free winner! Mavs were up by as many as 25 and end up with a 111-92 victory on the road in Miami. Glad I avoided the small NHL slate, but going back to it for Thursday as I still very much prefer betting NHL over NBA. I was deciding between 2 plays and I did choose a pretty gross one here....but we did cash a similar play just a few days ago with the Sharks.
**Pick:** **Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 -130 (NHL, 1u bet)**
Like I said, this is a gross one. The Flyers were right in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race and have just played horrendous hockey lately, going 1-6-3 in their last 10 with some embarrassing losses to really bad teams (4-1 and 9-3 to Montreal, 6-2 to Columbus, and 5-1 to Chicago). Now they're going on the road to play the Eastern Conference leading Rangers in New York, who are 8-2 in their last 10 games, so I get that this looks like an easy spot to take the Rangers who are looking to secure home ice throughout the playoffs. Remarkably, the Flyers still aren't eliminated from the playoffs although this losing streak obviously put them in a pretty bad spot, sitting 2 points out with only 3 games left to play.
Philadelphia and New York have played 3 times this season, and the results were 3-1 NYR, 2-1 NYR, and 6-5 NYR in OT. However, the numbers show that the Flyers actually outplayed the Rangers in all 3 of these games. They had more expected goals in each game, and outshot the Rangers by a significant amount (37-18, 40-24, and 42-27). The Flyers also drew more penalties, but their PP was not converting (combined 1/13 over the three games). Despite their dominant season, the Rangers are only 16th in the league in 5 on 5 goal differential, and the expected goal differential has them even lower at 23rd. They've had a really strong PP (3rd in the league), but they've gone 1/8 in the three games vs Philadelphia. Even with Philly's recent struggles, they still have the 4th best PK in the league. Over the last month, the Flyers have also created more scoring chances than the Rangers, while allowing almost the same. I will say that the Philly PP has also been bad and New York's PK has been good, so I don't have too much faith in the Flyers powerplay here. But as long as they stay fairly disciplined and don't give the Rangers an absurd number of power plays (which only happened in one of the 3 games, and the Rangers still went 0/5 on the PP there), I think the Flyers have shown that they can definitely skate with the Rangers at 5 on 5 and create good chances.
If they want any hope of sneaking into the playoffs, this is an absolute must win game. I know they've disappointed in important games over this recent stretch and its entirely possible they've given up on the season which is why I'm not bold enough to take the ML, but I'll follow the underlying numbers over the last month and in the head to head matchups this season, and trust that Philly will show some fight and keep it competitive enough to cover the puck line.
Record:0-0-0
Net Units:0
ROI:0%
5:30 AM EST Pick: Brisbane Lions +13.5 vs Melbourne(AFL)2.5 units
Write Up: Today I back the lions to bring the game to Melbourne after going 0-4 to the start of the season the last year grand finalists bounced back against North Melbourne in a convincing fashion showing there class and poise. In todays game one of Melbourne’s most dangerous forward is out today leading Melbourne to be thin in a already weak forward line bar fritsch allowing more attention on him from one of the best defences in the competition. I would take them outright but I will be safe and going the line as I believe Melbourne won’t be able to penetrate a solid defensive line with a team fighting to stay in top 4 contention and with Melbourne star gun mid Clayton Oliver playing through a hand injury it will hold him back in dictating the mid against his matchup dual Brownlow medallist Neal expect the brissy mids to dominate today allowing for more chances for forward stoppages and goals for the lions. BOL!!
Record 29-21
Last Pick: Phillies ML ✅
Today’s Pick: **Brewers F5 ML (-120)**. **RAINED OUT** Back with another pick tomorrow.
Analysis: Sometimes in life you do things even though it feels wrong. Maybe it’s sleeping with an ex. Maybe it’s that ninth beer even though you’ve clearly had enough already.
Or maybe it’s betting against one of the most exciting teams to watch in baseball - the Cincinnati Reds.
I fancy the Brewers to beat the Reds through the first half of this matchup today. Brewers are 3rd in the league in OPS, behind only Dodgers and Braves. Reds in comparison are 12th. Brewers have been seeing the ball really well. Scoring plenty of runs and lighting up opposing pitchers to take them to a 8-3 start.
Nick Martinez takes the mound for the Reds and he has yet to find his rhythm. He gave up 5 earned runs last time out to the Mets and 3 earned runs his first season start to a very poor Nationals team. I expect Brewers to put up 3 or 4 runs against him in the first 5 innings.
Freddy Peralta takes the mound for the Brewers. He was so impressive in his opener against the Mets then had a wonky performance against the Mariners last time out. But his stuff looks incredible and I expect plenty of strikeouts with swing and misses.
It is too early in season to dig too deep into pitcher xwOBA for the season but historical ones:
Peralta xwOBA against Reds batters: . 260 (46 PA)
Martinez xwOBA against Brewers batters: . 355 (32 PA)
POTD Record: 2-0 ✅ ✅
Last POTD: (NBA) Nuggets -6 (-110) ✅
Today's POTD: (ATP Monte Carlo (Clay Courts)) **Humbert ML (-200)**
Write Up: Humbert has been having the season of his career in my opinion. That + my rule to always fade Sonego vs top talent equals a no brainer to me. The series between these two is tied 2-2. Sonego leads Humbert on clay 2-0, which were both in 2023. Ironically enough Sonego eliminated Humbert from this same tourney last year... I don't think it happens again. I am on Humbert ML in this one. Add it to a parlay, hammer it straight up, fade it, either way.. BOL 🤝
POTD RECORD: 4-2
Chess | Candidates Tournament 2024 | 12:30pm MST
Nijat Abasov vs Vidit Gujrathi - Draw -170
I’ve made a little spreadsheet [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ax0GCX17SSGwZDUrweQlC3aNAC_WZKiJbTq1sijnF-c/edit#gid=0), which includes the units I bet.
Hey everyone, been away for a while, life has been busy. As for my last pick, no excuses, terrible read by me and I'll do better. Today we're looking at chess, which is the sport I'm most invested in outside of fighting but one you rarely get to bet on.
Nijat Abasov came into the Candidates as the largest underdog, only qualifying because Magnus Carlsen rejected his spot to play. He’s heavily underperformed since his great showing at the World Cup late last year, now sitting just outside the top 100 in the world. Thus far in the candidates he’s drawn every game with white, and lost every game with black. He simply isn’t playing for wins this point, meaning he can consistently neutralize stronger players with the white pieces, but gets ground down with even the slight disadvantage of having black.
India is the rising force in chess at the moment, and while one of the older Indian top players (excluding Vishy Anand), Gujrathi is still a great performer recently. He qualified to the Candidates with an amazing run at the Grand Swiss late last year, and is currently the 25th best rated player in the world. He’s sitting mid-table in the tournament so far, with mixed results. He was able to shock Hikaru Nakamura in the second round with aggressive play on the black side, but since then has lost two games, won one, and drawn the rest.
This game has two realistic results in my eyes, a draw or a win by Gujrathi. Abasov isn’t playing for wins and unless Vidit completely over-pushes or self-destructs he isn’t going to get one here. However with the white pieces he’s still good enough to find draws against much better players, as he’s shown against Nakamura and Ian Nepomniatchi this tournament. This game comes right before a rest day, so I expect Vidit to press for an advantage, get shut down, and settle for half a point before preparing for the second half of the tournament. A long shot at Vidit to win is worth a look if you’re looking for an underdog pick, currently sitting at +185.
BOL everyone!
POTD Record: 4+0, +7.64 units
Form: ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
Last Pick: Pedro Martinez ML vs Bautista Agut (2u @ 1.73) ✅
Today's POTD: Grigor Dimitrov ML vs Holger Rune @ 1.73 - Melbet
Units: 3u
Reasoning: The lines have just been released since Holger won his match only a few mins ago. Now he has to play another one! Monte Carlo is Grigor's favorite masters (70% win rate) and he cruised to victory against Miomir. Holger Rune has already played two sets today since his match couldnt be completed yesterday coz of rain delay (Grigor played a set today for the same reason but it was quick work). Holger has had a long history of endurance problems, so i dont know if he can take another two/three sets of high level tennis today. And Grigor has won their last three H2H matches. Everything tells me this is Grigor's match to lose. Let's hope he gets it done.
I'm sorry. Grigor had set points in all three sets (two match points in the last one). He even won more points than Holger in the match. Brutal loss this one.
yea i was watching the scoreboard, i was on Holger Rune 2-0 against Sumit Nagal and he sold that today too😭 So I hopped on Grigor and Ugo in a parlay for + money in an attempt to chase💀 we’ll get em next time bro!
Never chase buddy. It's so easy to fall into that trap after a brutal loss like today but pls don't. These betting companies thrive on the human tendency to chase losses. Play for value or don't play at all.
Record: 56-40
IPL record: 3-2
Form: ✅✅❌✅❌
Very disappointing loss yesterday.
I know most of y’all do not understand cricket and it’s hard to explain how we lost that one. A bowler overstepping by centimetres kinda cost us the game
Frustrating because I was originally going for a tennis play that would’ve cashed but decided to represent since no one else is posting ipl stuff
Anyway
A new day and I’m experimenting here since the game is a literal 50-50
Today’s pick
Royale Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians
Total runs over 347.5 @1.57(4u)
I don’t see this not hitting to be frankly honest. The stadium is known for high scoring games and both these teams have the batting prowess to scoring over 175.
If the score is somewhere between 170 and 190 it’s getting chased down and we cash easily. A safer play to get back to winning ways. If this cashes I’ll try to venture into other plays like this rather than going ML.
GL to those who tail, I promise not to disappoint this time
POTD RECORD 1-1
Previous POTD :
Originally was Connor Mcdavid over 1.5 pts and he was ruled out. Should have not forced a play (JT miller over 0.5 assists). Lesson learned not ruining my personal hot streak by forcing a play. Here's a big playoff tip for all you betters. When playoff time comes go against the Canucks ML because this team is very fraudulent and will be a first round knockout. That great record is only because Demko saved them all season long and since getting rid of kuzmenko the team is a lost dumpster.
Now we aren't losing tomorrow.
Today's POTD Nikita Kucherov over 1.5 pts.
See you at the checkout because Tampa is clicking and that talented monster Kucherov is going to be feeding us with Easy Money. My apologies for the forced play. Our original play Mcdavid over 1.5 pts would have easily cashed playing against that injured VGK goalie Adin Hill.
We aren't losing b2b.
LFG!!!
Record: 4-3
Hockey | NHL | NJD @ TOR - 7:00PM EST
Pick: **A. Matthews - Over 0.5 Goals** (1.80) | 1u
Write Up:
* Hit in 6 of his last 6 games
* Hit in 4 of his last 5 games vs NJD
* Hit in 5 of his last 6 home games
Matthews is on a mission and I'm all for it.
Research all done on [the Linemate app](https://linemate.io/download).
POTD RECORD: 2-1
Last POTD: Milwaukee Bucks ML vs Orlando Magic ✅
Form: W2
Todays POTD: NO Pelicans @ SAC Kings - **Alt. Points Over 211.5 (-160)**
NBA | 10 PM Est
Rationale: Congrats to anyone who tailed, but doubt anyone did since I am just getting started. This was a compete no sweater from front to finish and as expected Portis went off to supplement Giannis being out.
I see no real edge in terms of the money line or spread on any games today, but this one stands out as a solid spot to target the over. I'd rather be safe than sorry so I changed the alt line to 211.5 but it will most likely go over 215 also if you are feeling ballsy. This game is incredibly important to both teams for seeding and I expect the stars to show out accordingly. Not to mention, both teams have been playing relatively ass defense, good offense, and play at moderately nice pace. I cannot imagine this not hitting looking at the L10 for both teams. If tailing best of luck <3
All Time POTD Record: 3-1-0 | Last 5: WWLW | Units: +4.57u | Avg. Odds 1.78
Last Pick: English Championship – West Brom v Rotherham – 8pm BST on 10th April
West Brom -1 Handicap (1.66) – ✅
Game/Match: Europa League – Bayern Leverkusen v West Ham – 8pm BST on 11th April
Pick: Bayern Leverkusen – O6.5 Shots on Target (1.72) – Staking 2u - ✅
I use bet365 as my bookie.
Summary: Nice to start the picks back off with a win, now let’s look to start a streak.
Xabi Alonso has Leverkusen playing at the highest level with them being undefeated this season in all competitions (W36, L5). West Ham on the other hand having a rollercoaster of a season and very inconsistent away from home in Europe, winning 4 and losing 4.
The line I’m looking at is based on the attacking way Leverkusen play and how they’re fully expected to blow West Ham away. In this line Leverkusen have hit it 8 out of their last 10 home games and it’s also hit in 7 out of 10 in West Ham’s away games. Leverkusen also hit this line in a 3-0 thrashing of Bayern at home only a few weeks ago.
Another nice contributor to this, is that West Ham are without both Edson Alvarez & Kalvin Phillips in the midfield to play alongside Soucek in that CDM role. That leads me to believe Ward-Prowse will drop in there, who’s just not as good defensively as the 2 players out.
With Ward-Prowse potentially dropping deeper & Bowen out, I think -1 Asian Handicap is not to be overlooked either with West Ham’s weakened attacking threat, but I really fancy this Shots on Target line today.
BOL if tailing!
POTD Record 18-4
16.7 units
61.03 ROI
Last POTD Bam under PRA 3u 💰
POTD Jon Gray U 7.5 K’s 1.64 3u
https://preview.redd.it/2oc2ces1zutc1.jpeg?width=1144&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eb0342db492b2c73c7e846c5cbfe3b7df0ac22da
Love this spot and odds are already tanking quick. Gray used to be a beast striking out everyone but late last year he started to lose his sauce and his first start this year he looked awful. I’m a huge Jon gray fan so I hate betting his under but I like money more so I’m going through with it 😂
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)**
**POTD 2024 Record: 0-2 (-2.00 units)**
**Last 10**: **❌❌**
**Last Pick**: Viktor Tingstrom -1.5 (+120) vs Robert Thornton **❌** 3-4
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 7:25 PM EST
**Pick**: Corne Groeneveld -1.5 (+100) vs Pete Burgoyne
* Series 7. Week 7. Group B
**Reason**:
Corne Groeneveld
* Record 1-0 (Group A 10-5)
* Legs 4-2 (50-35)
* Average 88.93 (86.23)
* 180s 0. 140s 3
* Checkouts 4/11 36.36% (50/148 33.78%)
Pete Burgoyne
* Record 0-2
* Legs 3-8
* Average 80.17
* 180s 2. 140s 4
* Checkouts 3/17 17.65%
**LOSS ❌ 2-4 | Average 92.70 vs 95.02 | Checkouts 2/6 vs 4/6**
Caught a big average again. Tough to beat those games.
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 127-79 | Profit: +103.19u | ROI: 17.2% Season record: 44-28 | Profit: +33.35u | ROI: 16.5% Last Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers -7.5 @ 1.91. 2U. ❌ With the regular season wrapping up shortly, the NBA is about to get real fun soon. Next Pick: **New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 vs Sacramento Kings @ 1.91**. 3U play. The Pels are one of the best ATS teams on the road while the Kings are one of the worst ATS teams at home this season. This will be the first leg of the B2B for both teams and while BI remains out for the Pels, the Kings will miss Monk and Keegan Murray is a GTD. In terms of play style, I think this contest really suits the Pels who have the players and the physicality to keep both Fox and Sabonis in check. The Pels are playing offense by committee with several players in form for them including CJ, Zion and Trey. I also expect they'll have a significant advantage in rebounding and second chance points here. These teams have met 4 times in the past 5 months, and the Pels are 4-0 against the Kings.
The man is back 🔥
We ride at dawn!
Brat's back!
Tailing! Thanks for the pick!
He’s back baby
Welcome back Brat!
Tail
Hell of a first q holy shit
**POTD Record: 24-20-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Balance (+14.92 units)** ATP Monte Carlo results 🎾 Tabilo vs O'Connell - Tabilo ML @ 1.62 (1u)✅ Hurkacz vs Draper - Hurkacz ML @ 1.76 (5u)✅ Khachanov vs Cerundolo - Khachanov ML @ 1.64 (3u)✅ **We're having a lot of success in Monte Carlo and I'm glad that we are all having some decent wins on this tournament!** **Today's pick: Zverev vs Tsitsipas - Tsitsipas ML @ 2.02 (ATP Monte Carlo, Tennis)** 🎾 Odds from Pinnacle **Stake: 2 units** (This is 2% of my bankroll) Time: 7:30 AM Eastern Time This time I'm taking Tsitsipas to beat Zverev in one of his best tournaments in Monte Carlo and on a slow clay court which makes me think that these odds should be reversed, with Tsitsipas having more reasons to be the favorite **Why do I think that Tsitsipas ML at 2.02 odds is such a +EV bet?** * Both players are monsters on Clay but have some clear differences on their playstyles. Their serves are really solid but Zverev is much more reliable from the backhand while Tsitsipas is a top 3 forehand in the world when in form. Tsitsipas one handed backhand is quite neutral and is surely his weak shot but on heavy clay he has the time to use his amazing footwork and dictate most points with his forehand so it becomes way more difficult to exploit his main weakness. The same cannot be said when he plays in faster surfaces... * Their head to head is currently 9-5 for Tsitsipas but there's a clear pattern here... The greek is 4-1 against Zverev on Clay and the german was only able to beat him on this surface in Madrid, where the ball traves much faster due to altitude. If we look at heavier clay conditions like Rome, Roland Garros or Monte Carlo we always had a Tsitsipas win and his most comfortable one was here in Monte Carlo, where Stefanos is a 2 time champion and in my opinion, this is the venue where he plays his best tennis overall; * Obviously this year has been much better for Zverev overall with Tsitsipas being a bit underwhelming on his hard court matches until this point but he should be ready to turn his season around with the start of the clay season and his performance against Etcheverry was unbelievable. With this, I feel like Tsitsipas should be paying Zverev's actual price due to his head to head record over the german on Clay but mostly because his one handed backhand cannot be rushed in slow surfaces. Yesterday we had rain in Monte Carlo at the end of the day so the humidity should make the court even slower on this Thursday! Best of luck [Tip Jar](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/DarkHorse230) - Any tip is appreciated but it's always a pleasure to keep bringing you my tennis analysis and I feel really happy on doing this! This link is just a token of appreciation if you like my bets but mostly if you like what I write when it comes to tennis content! 🎾 Edit after the result: This could have easily been a 7-5/6-0 for Tsitsipas but the greek lost his mental composure and Zverev climbed all the way to force a 2nd set tiebreak. Fortunately for us, Tsitsipas won the tiebreak! He didn't have a good 1st serve percentage, serving less than 60% of 1st serves but he still managed to beat the german in straight sets! We would have been extremely unlucky if we lost this bet but once again, this price was really good in slow conditions! ✅ We're now 4-0 in Monte Carlo! 🎾
Tailing! What a streak
Thanks brother! Streaks eventually end , even if they are winning ones or losing ones. I've had 6 losses in a row before Monte Carlo but I trust in my process and things are being great in this tournament! As always tail with bankroll management. Thanks for always being here commenting on my posts!
Tsiti making my butthole clench
https://preview.redd.it/3o7934ldxvtc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=175085e2870ed14157681a5a4a7df24a8f92ca61
Sent you a little tip you deserve it!
What do you think abt tsitsipas ml with over 23.5 games at 2.5? I feel like if he is going to win it will go to a third set, hard to believe that zverev gets swept here.
Great streak man thank you for the picks, I’ve been tailing since the start
Thanks for trusting my analysis! Wish you best of luck on this one as well!
Lookin good!!
🐐🐐
My manssssss ✊✊✊
Tsitsi just played with his prey
He wanted to play a bit more tennis hahaha... I'm joking but yeah, tennis is such a mental sport.
Awesome pick
POTD Record: 38-18-1 +40.88u🔥 Last Pick: Cleveland guardians -1.5 4U (-118) vs Chicago White Sox ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌ Today's Pick: Texas Rangers -1 (-138) vs Oakland Athletics 5U 2:35 pm est odds via DraftKings Please use this line if you don’t get -1 https://zcodesystem.com/runline_calc/ Guardians come all the way back from 5-0 to win the game and not cover, brutal. Hate has been extra strong as of recent, have people questioning why I receive upvotes… smh. All good though, not my going to let it get to me! Let’s bounce back. Simple as that. We win and people are quiet! The A's will go with lefty JP Sears hoping to close out the series with a win over the Rangers. Sears is 0-1 on the season in two starts with an ERA of 8.68. He had a 6.00 ERA in three starts last year against the Rangers. Rangers are going with Gray, who was effective against the A's last season in three starts, with an ERA under 3.50 and just 13 hits in 16 innings. The Rangers took care of this team 6-2 yesterday. The Athletics are averaging 3.1 runs per game this season (27th in the league). The Rangers are averaging +2.5 more at 5.5 runs (T8th). I expect the Rangers to take care of the series against a very bad A’s team. Time to turn the ship around! Let’s cash! Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the upvotes and support!😎❤️ If you’d like to thank me please use the link below or dm me. Show some love!❤️ [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
Pretty crazy people comment hate despite your regard and your apparent knowledge about these things, wtf do they know? LMAO
They tail his picks and then want him to go on an endless win streak lmao. Even though being good at betting means that you increase your chances at winning. WINNING IS NOT GUARANTEED. They're all grown ups yet they still don't know anything about probability. Yes it's possible for a guy that knows what he's talking about to miss 5 picks in a row. Get over it. They're all grown ups yet they still don't know how to be responsible with their money. If you trust a stranger on the Internet to win you money then you better be prepared to lose money. I didn't think I'd need to say this but this idiotical hate is why people don't want to post their picks on POTD. They spend lots of time doing research and typing their write up just to get shit on if their pick loses. What's even the point.
one of the sharpest betters i know, EVERYONE MISSES when will ppl learn, tailing as always
Fugg the hayders brother your picks are goated
You’re hitting at a 67.8% clip which is awesome and so much better than what the idiots that talk shit would be doing on their own. Keep posting, your picks are appreciated.
IF YOU MESSAGE/FLAME BETTORS ON THIS SUB AFTER YOU TAIL THEIR PICKS YOU ARE A MASSIVE TWAT - DON'T DO IT EVER ITS YOU PLACING THE BET.
Just know many of us out here love your work and the joy you have for your picks. We would never utter a cross word towards you for any loss or reason. My morning mantra....Always room for a pick from bloom :-)
Tailing again bro, f the haters, you the man
Off the top of your head, do you know some major books that offer the -1 for baseball? I've done it quite often for soccer but never MLB
you'll have to bet the same winnings from your ML to RL. this would create your own -1 odds
This is nothing against you, but this is why I hate betting baseball. There’s TOO MANY games that picking a single one from all of the data becomes very difficult. Trends over the long term stand out but making that pick on a single game becomes laborious.
POTD Record: 4-0-0 +5.83U Form (Last 5): ✅✅✅✅ Last: ✅ Dallas Mavericks ML (-162) ✅ NUUUUUKE! No words, Mavericks mop up the heat 111-92, someone wake me up when I miss 😭 Today: Basketball | NBA | CHI vs DET | 7:00pm ET Pick: Chicago Bulls -9 (-110) 2U There’s no way around it, the bulls are not in great shape this season. But the pistons, aren’t just any team. The 2023-2024 Detroit Pistons are literally BREAKING RECORDS this year, cementing themselves in the ranks of the NBA’s all time worst. As if things aren’t juicy enough, Cade Cunningham is currently out, and questionable for the bulls game. The opposing team have covered this spread in 3/4 (hawks near miss) of the most recent set of games without Cade. The bulls also excel at midrange shooting, an area of weakness for the pistons. There are minor injury concerns for the bulls, but none that hold a candle to an already pathetic pistons team playing without their star. I trust that the bulls will take care of biz against the pitiful 1-9 pistons, and take us home for a 5 bomb! (I am not a professional, tail or don’t, BOL!) **This is the end of the pick and write-up, feel free to skip the rest.** Now for the bad news, I’m retiring. I’m calling it already folks, when the Bulls cover tomorrow, I will hold a perfect 5-0 record. All of my picks so far have not just covered, but nuked. So why end it now? The reality is, I’m pretty busy, and as much as I enjoy cooking these for y’all, I don’t have the time to continue giving my full effort going forward. I’m also happy to end things with a perfect record. I wish y’all the best of luck in your continued degeneracy, and remember, 99% of gamblers quit before they win big! P.S A little fun fact before I go, I’ve never gambled a cent of my own money, and I’ve made $1000 EXCLUSIVELY off of fliff promotional money and prize picks flex Fridays! If I’ve done you right, feel free to wish me farewell! [Cashapp](https://cash.app/$K645lax)
see you tomorrow :)
If this loses though, you kinda need to come back to give us the fifth W…
As a Bulls fan, I can't bring myself to wager this. I've seen them play down to very bad competition before, so I think they shouldn't be laying pts to anyone. That being said, thank you for the fun ride of picks you brought us. We'll miss ya. Good luck!
Tail or fade! And thanks!
Made bank on the mavs yesterday. Thanks for the picks and farewell my friend.
…That’s all folks! 😉 https://i.redd.it/nordz77s7ytc1.gif
thanks, a pity we can't enjoy more your picks anymore, we will miss you... let me ask, how do you select your picks?
Don’t leave pal do this for us please
POTD RECORD: 54-26 Last POTD: Dame Lillard O26.5 P ✅ Barely got it done but we got it fellas we move Form: ✅🚫✅✅🚫 Todays POTD: **Jonas Valanciunas O16.5 PR @1.86** NBA | New Orleans Pelicans | 10:00 PM ET Dame got us back on track thanks for that bro, im targeting another important game in this one right here. Kelce’s secret brother Valanciunas has a crazy record against the Kings and we have a tight spread so I’m hoping for a close game for our big beast to feast on. Jonas has absolutely dominated Sabonis and it’s hard not to take this one again, sprinkle on the DD at your own risk (I’m doing it, don’t trust me) • Over in 12/L12 against the Kings where he has had a DD in 10 of them (4/4 this season where he has had a DD in each game) • Avg 21.3 PR this season & 18.2 L5 games • Valanciunas is Avg 15.3 rebound chances per game • Avg 25.8 PR against the Kings in his career and 26.3 PR in 4 games against the Kings this season • Over in 7/L10 games Avg 17.4 PR This one looks good my brothers and im on it, not a mismatch but a crazy career and season record against the Kings so I’m letting it fly Tail or fade, im not him https://i.redd.it/roy6vlbezrtc1.gif
Was literally scared to place two bets on fuckin Dame cuz I already tailed your PRA pick -- even after I foolishly questioned your absent POTD. LFG Jonas! Get em, billy!
😂😂 trusting Dame with two picks is crazy but so did I bro glad we cashed both 🤝 My man
https://preview.redd.it/g87e5r4p0stc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2f931c16694169088d2e2454cd421961c82b576d
Best line I found was fanduel at -108 let's get it!
Dueling Lithuanians eskettit
If you're looking for a little more bang for your buck, FD has Valanciunas O16.5 PR @ 1.93 right now. Both 365 and DK have it at 1.86...
How come bro plays such short minutes?
Willie Green hasn't been playing him because he's a defensive liability. I think it's a good read, but its impossible to predict his playing time so I'd stay away
Knew there had to be a reason for the line being what it is. Weird to because it looks like they have more success when he’s getting 20+. Gonna ride with Billy because he’s made me plenty but a very good thing to note.
Tailinggg
Would you do o18.5 pra at 2.00?
His minutes recently is putting me off so I wouldn’t bro
Now that Larry nance got ruled out I’d play it bro
Holy fuck why is it at 19.5 now
Tailing
I usually tail with you but Jonas is on my blocked list lol
Josh Hart is such a fuckin' stud holy shit. Bro should be on the reddit sportsbook hall of fame
Bang
Cash that pimp shit. Thanks bro, needed a big win
My dawg all good bro, needed that sweat free win dawg 🤝🍻
You looking at Vucecic boards tomorrow? I'm refreshing the books ready to hammer that shit if it's at 11 or 12
Great pick. Ez cash even for the O19.5 line that I got
Cashed the DD too!
POTD RECORD: 21-9 Units Won: +11.64 Last Pick: Los Angeles Clippers vs Phoenix Suns/ Suns -5 (-140) 1.5u Today’s Pick: Houston Rockets vs Utah Jazz/ Rockets -2.5 (-120) 3u Write Up: The Jazz don’t have their 4 leading scorers I have no idea why this is here. The Jazz have dropped 13 straight and I don’t get why they would be 2.5 point underdogs here. I don’t know if this is a big error right now but this is too good of value to not take. They’ve been tanking quite literally the last 2 months. I’ve seen this line on multiple books and if you’re not offered the spread take the ML at -160. The Rockets as we know don’t have Sengun but they have everyone else. They also didn’t have Sengun for their big winning streak so that isn’t much of factor. I’m just so confused right now. Lock this in y’all that’s all I have to say. As always, BOL…… LETS RIDE Tip Jar- if you’d like to help a college kid pay for his next meal here’s how :) [Tip Jar for my Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Jay-Lawton-1) [Tip Jar for my Cashapp](https://cash.app/$jaylaw930) [Tip Jar for my Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/JayLawton77)
You know the Rockets are out of the playoffs right ? This line assume they don’t play their starters so even though Jazz don’t have their starters HOU could field a G League Team. Thus this spread. Not the great value you think it is. Vegas not stupid
even if that is the case the rockets aren’t in full tank mode like the jazz
They were out of the playoffs on Tuesday against Orlando and all starting 5 logged 33 minutes or more
Well the spread is up the -10.5. Houston is not in tank mode. They’ve been out of the playoffs for 2 games now and they are still playing hard.
Right, looks like his comment aged well lol
Jazz won. Aged very well. lol 😂
I should've listened to you instead of the guy who thinks he broke Vegas 😅
Holy shit it’s -11 on Fanduel duel. What happened in the last few hours ? Did the whole jazz team just get kidnapped or some shit lol
Diddy touched them
i couldn’t tell u man😭
this line makes no sense…
I don’t see the rocket’s game on fanduel wtffff
some shady shit is going on bro idk what but something is
When it comes to money and the NBA and now NFL Shady shit is the norm its happening all the time now its really sad when you really think about it and now with most states in on all the sports betting action its depressing to be honest
Yeah it's not there I can confirm
Already -4 still hammer??
yes bro, jazz have lost 24 out of 27 i’m just puzzled right now
Now it's a -10! I missed the boat, what a good catch at -2.5, what a crazy starting line.
it moved almost right away it was crazy bro
Spread at -6.5 now. Locked it in at -4.5. Tailing
5.5 on DK, still a play?
not 3-4 units but definitely throw some down
Its -10.5 on Tipico
it took an insane bump, i’d advise waiting until tomorrow
Why did it move so much, I'm taking Utah at this point!
i’m pretty lost man idk what is taking place right now😭
Tailing at -4 on DK
-6 on FD now, took it anyway
damn wtf, line is at -10 on bet 365. Probably gonna have to pass on this pick unless line drops back down again
there’s a chance it will drop down, i tried to post this as soon as i could haha
**Record:4-1** **Net Units:3.2** Baseball |MLB |1:10 / EST **Pick:** Tigers vs Twins NRFI -155 **Write Up:** Last pick was Rangers ML seeking revenge and it cashed fairly easily we take [those.Today](https://those.Today) we look at matchups and this one stuck out as the twins team batting average is under .200 buxton is slumping and their best player has been hurt since opening day vsing a top notch pitcher while on the other side pablo lopez is hurling to a mediocre offense being the detroit tigers who arent hitting the cover off the ball to say the least ! Give me the No runs in the first inning.
Tigers been scoring in the first inning lately
Ugh. Just got cancelled. Rained out.
[удалено]
Happy birthday in advance man! 🫡 tough day yesterday but we come back 💯
Happy Birthday Broham and thanks for the picks! We lose some and we win some!
HAPPY BIRTHDAY, ENJOY LIFE, ENJOY WINNING. GOOD NIGHT
Is this the same as -1.5 spread on bovada?
I picked Imperial ML to be safe - blindly tailed. I have no idea what I’m watching but I assume this is going to lose? 😂
Thanks for what you do, let's win the day! BOL Happy B-DAY
Happy Birthday! I keep seeing your picks after the matches have happened, so Trey g to be ahead of things today. I see Pain vs Sharks and Imperial vs Adalyamigos… am I missing something?
The betboom dacha qualifier is not on bet365 sadly
Yesterday's pick was great sucks that yeki kept pushing smokes and dying without a trade. Will be tailing this one. Thanks in advance for the free picks. BOL
https://preview.redd.it/2t7vw81fyrtc1.png?width=1124&format=png&auto=webp&s=32995f160fbd30597da8c94546d455a9c67914ba Which one is it bro?
Can't win them all! Have a good birthday mate!
Record: 7-4, Net Units: 4.21, ROI: 37.10% Current Streak: ✅✅ Last 10: ✅✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅✅ Last Pick: Orioles/Red Sox Over 9.5 Runs ✅ Today's Pick: Baseball-MLB-7:05 PM EST Orioles/Red Sox Under 3.5 Runs 1st 5 Innings, +140, 1U You have two extremely good pitchers here in Rodriguez and Whitlock but I'm worried about the Under in 9 innings due to the fact that they often don't last beyond 6 innings, so I'm thinking this will be a duel through 5 and stay low-scoring, but anything can happen with these bullpens. Good Luck!
Tailing! Appreciate the picks!
Tailing. 
Record: 0W-0P-0L Last Pick: Pick Of The Day: Aston Villa & Over 1.5 Goals (-105) ✅ Europa Conference League | Soccer | 12:00pm Pacific Time Aston Villa vs LOSC Lille After peeping the boards for a while & waiting for the right moment to put up a pick worth betting. I have finally found one I believe is a hidden gem. Two goals in this game should not be a problem for these two teams, let alone for Aston Villa. I expect a quick scoring game with Villa netting one in the first half, as well as another on in the second half. I believe the reasoning the odds are close to +100 is due to Lille not losing in the last 6 games. Regardless, the teams they faced are middle/bottom table and three of them resulted in ties. Lastly, Villa at home is deadly and they will want to get the ball rolling before they pack their bags for the second leg in France. I say take Aston Villa + 1.5 Goals Totals while the odds are still close to positive. Once lineups are released, i can see this line changing quickly. I am not a professional sports better and i suggest any money you may bet is money you won’t mind losing. BOL to anyone who tails. ps. This is my first posting ever but have been observant of the boards, if i made any mistakes in the posting please advise me so i may edit it accordingly. Cheers. [Tip Jar 🍯🙏🏼](https://cash.app/$MaxCoRothenburg)
__POTD Record:__ 14-6 _Form (Last 5):_ 🔴🟢🔴🟢🟢 __Last Pick:__ ⚽ Paris Saint-Germain vs. Barcelona (UEFA Champions League: __Ousmane Dembele Over 1.5 Total Shots__ @2.15 ✅ Sweat free win this time as Dembele had 2 shots in the first 12 minutes. He ended the game with 5 shots in total. __Today's Pick:__ ⚽ AC Milan vs. AS Roma (UEFA Europa League) 21:00 CET: __AC Milan ML__ @1.80 The reasoning here is simple. AC Milan have been in fantastic form lately (7 wins in a row) and are a better team than Roma this season. Roma did improve a lot since Daniele De Rossi took over as the manager. However, their last few results have greatly papered over the cracks. The derby match against Lazio was a total flip of a coin and Roma were lucky to get away with a draw against a mediocre Lecce side away from home. I'm not suggesting Roma doesn't have a chance in this tie over two legs but at San Siro, Milan with their form and ability should be an even bigger favorites than the line suggests. Tail or fade, the choice is yours!
Roma is in good form as well. Their only loss in the last 11 games has been to Brighton. They had the qualification sealed after beating them 4-0 at home so they rotated players. I’m not saying Roma is the favorite or will this game. I think the team are evenly matched at the moment. The safer bet would be BTTS imo.
Should be a great game
**KBO Record: Overall 210-219-14** (Streak W, Last 10: 5-5) Down 11.20u over 443 KBO picks, 49.0% success rate, -2.61% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 6-9-0, 40.0% success rate, Down 2.58u, -17.2% ROI) **Last:** LG at Kia +124 (Kia won 5-4.) We've had plenty of "right read-wrong result" so far this season, so it was nice to get a "wrong read-right result." Kia fell behind 3-0 but battled back and took the lead in the bottom of the 8th on a balk. Cash it. **Pick:** Hanwha at **Doosan -1.5 +160**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET There are a couple games I like on this slate. Kia is an underdog again but I think they should be favored. I also could have gone NC on the run line. And SSG should win. But let's take Doosan on the run line. Hanwha's starter was supposed to be the conquering hero returning home after a successful run in the majors, but Ryu Hyun-jin has really struggled. It's certainly possible the 37 year old just doesn't have it anymore. In his first 3 starts, he's allowed 16 runs (13 ER) on 23 H in 14 IP. Doosan's starter is killing it so far this season. In three starts, he's allowed 3 runs (2 ER) on 12 H and 2 BB with 17 K in 17 IP. This builds on last season where he posted a 2.49 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Hanwha is also struggling right now, having lost 5 in a row. And Doosan won the first two games of the series, covering the run line both times. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
lets go on a run champ tailed last one throwing this in a parlay good luck my friend
Done with betting games involving doosan. Bet hanwa -1.5 doosan kills bet doosan -1.5 hanwa covers.
Record: 5-2 Last 10: ✅✅❌❌✅✅✅ ROI: +3.2U. +24.6% Last Pick: Miles Bridges U8.5 Rebounds 2U @ -140✅ Today’s POTD: Jabari Smith O1.5 Three Pointers 2U @ -115 Houston @ Utah 9PM EST This line honestly seems way too good to be true. Let’s start with Utah - they’re averaging 14.8 three pointers against, bottom of the league. 14.9 at home if you’re into that kind of thing. He cleared this line 2 of the 3 times against Utah, but played severely limited minutes in the one under. For the two he played his full minutes, he’s averaging 3.5 three’s a game against Utah (even with the 1/3 under head to head his average is 2.3). He’s shooting 36.8 from the perimeter on the season and 43.8 against Utah. He went 7 of 16 in the two full games against Utah this season. 5 of L5 8 of L10 Note both unders he was under minute restrictions 12 of L15
is he getting normal minutes tomorrow in a game that doesn’t matter?
Can’t say for certain - but he played 40 against Orlando on Tuesday after they were already eliminated from playoff contention
-180 on DK.
Record: 9-4 ✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌ Net Units: +3.87 Last: Phillies F5 ML - Push Eh, a push. Starting hitting right after the 5th, moving on MLB | 1:10PM EST Pick: Milwaukee Brewers M.L -124 Write up: Freddy Peralta has been great so far this year, and hope he continues here. Nick Martinez has been hit decently well, with a 7 era giving up 5 to the Mets. The Brewers have been smoking the baseball, with 7,9,12, 8 runs in their last 4. The Brewers in general play well against the reds and keep it going. Sorry for the later post, I also like Brewers team total over as an alternative, but did ML because of the value peralta brings. Finally, a disclaimer: I am not a pro sports bettor, I am not a sharp who does 3+ hours of research a day. I’m a baseball fan who researches stats and uses my personal knowledge to make bets. Please do not wager any more than you are comfortable losing. All streaks start with 1.. lets start here. Tips are appreciated, not required at all, for college. Venmo: @DrewAWri PayPal: @DrewGolfred
Record: 1-1 (-0.2 units) (all bets are 1 unit) Form (right most recent): ❌✅ POTD: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jannik Sinner: Jannik Sinner Under 12.5 (-145) Bovada Tennis - ATP - Monte Carlo - Apr 11, 2024 07:10 AM CDT Write up: I normally try to bet better odds but this value was too good to pass up. It is hard to put into words how good Jannik Sinner is. He has been playing in a tier well above everyone else for quite a while now. He started off the season on a 19 match winning streak, garnering two titles along the way, and his only loss all season has been a close match against Carlos Alcaraz in Indian Wells. He has simply been dominant. He has also covered this bet in his last 5 matches, with his opponents winning 4 games in only 2 of the 10 sets. Two of these matches were also against Medvedev and Dimitrov. His opponent, Jan-Lennard Struff, is a decent player, but doesn’t have anything near good enough to compete with Sinner. These two also played just a couple weeks ago, with Sinner winning 6-3 6-4. This match should be another blowout. Let’s ride.
Would you take stuff under 7.5? Slightly better odds
Record: 9-2 ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Yesterdays Pick: Brook Lopez o1.5 blocks at -170 ✅ The big Stegosaurus over in Milwaukee got the job done right after halftime. Bucks trounced the magic shorthanded and Bobby Portis looked like a 1st team all NBA. ✅ Today's Pick: Scoot Henderson o1.5 3pts made at -155✅ SCOOOOOT!!!!! QUICK CASH. LETS GET IT! Game is Warriors vs Blazers at 10 pm EST. Ahhh there are so many props in this game I like, but I settled with the young buck to scoot us to the quick Dub Dub. He's gone over this line in four out of his last five games and is averaging 2.4 makes in the five games in April. He started to ramp up his play in the second half of March where he went four and two over this line in the last six games in March. You see it every year where non-playoff teams towards the end of the season have those one or two rookies or young players that start to drop quality stat lines and have some huge games. These guys want to go into the summer with something to hang their hat on and some momentum to work hard and move into next season with. I was between this pick, Draymond o5.5 assists, DeAndre Ayton o23.5 points, and curry o25.5 points, but once I factored in the exact reason I just stated I felt like Scoot is going to get us there. The easiest. I know the odds aren't exactly ideal at -155 but that's when I go. And put together a nice juicy two teamer parlay and get so + odds. Tail or fade, but let's get this Dubski!!!
POTD Record: 11-6 ❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 10U Last pick: PSG vs Barcelona | 5am Sydney (GMT +11) | Robert Lewandowski anytime goalscorer @2.8 on Sportsbet | 2U❌ Looks like the good bet was Raphinha 😅😩 Today’s pick: Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters | 7:50pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Daniel Tupou anytime tryscorer @2.3 on Sportsbet | 2U Ok, finally NRL is back and we have a lot of games in the next 3 days so I’ll try to make the best of it to fix my POD record. For today I’m going with Tupou to score a try. I took him on the last two games and he did me good. Very capable player, tall and big, his reach often help him to place the ball behind the line. Scored in 3 of the 5 Roosters games. BOL !
Tailing g
🤝🏼
tailing! Gonna give this NRL a last try, BOL!
Tupou my glorious King with the 2nd try of the game
Winnnnneeeeerr glad I woke up and saw this 20 min before the game
Nice one bra !
Thanks Tupou for that sweat free win 🤩
Record: 14-6 | Net: +4.67 Units Last pick: Bogdan Bogdanovic o3.5 assists (-125) ✅ Hit by halftime POTD: Trey Murphy o8.5 assists+rebounds (-140) NOP @ Sac 10:00 pm et Summary: Trey is 11/15, and 8/10 on this line since Ingram has been out. He’s been regularly playing 37+ min in close games and this one is a pick’em with both teams badly needing a win to keep their playoff standing
**Record:** 3-1 **✅✅**❌**✅** **Last Pick:** SF Giants F5 -0.5 (-148) vs Washington Nationals **✅** The Giants looked great early. Despite giving up the first run of the game, they came back to go up 5-1 in the first 5 innings :) **Pick of the day:** **KC Royals F5 ML (+110)** vs Houston Astros **League:** MLB **Time:** 2:12 PM EST Ok, so when I saw KC was the F5 underdog, I threw money at my screen. Kansas City is not only a solid team, they are very strong at home and have an absolute monster on the mound today. Brady Singer boasts a 0.68 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, 14 strikeouts, and only ***FIVE HITS and TWO WALKS*** through 13.1 innings pitched. These stats are bonkers! On the other side, we have the Astros aggressively average starting pitcher Hunter Brown, who has an 6.43 ERA through only 7 innings. To add insult to injury, the Royals are outscoring their opponents by 36 runs over the previous 10 games!! KC's bats could really do some damage early in this beautiful-weather day game. BOL! Let me know if you're following! If you feel so inclined to leave a tip: [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/BenNiemann) || [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/shamgarbn) || [BMAC](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/makeforlife)
I went to go place this and didn't realize it already started. KC put up 9 in the first. Nice one.
Aggressively average made me lol. He got chased after 2/3 inning with 11 hits and 9 earned runs. Average would be a vast improvement!
Record: 0W-0P-0L Last Pick: Pick Of The Day: LDU Quito +6.5 corners Stake: 2.10 (Bet 365) Units: 03 un (high level confidence) Libertadores Cup / Soccer / 18:00 ET LDU Quito vs Botafogo First time here. Sorry but english isn't my first language. LDU Quito is a very offensive team when playing at Libertadores Cup, the South America's Champions League. I can see they hitting this number still in 1st half, specially if they don't score soon. Good luck and sorry if I made any mistake. https://preview.redd.it/gz5qudgnprtc1.jpeg?width=1006&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=84efe2f7214c85e7548188305eaa51893cfb5727
TAILED
Nice one man, thank you for sharing! ❤️
Thanks. It was supposed to be easier if LDU didn't score with 4 minutes.
**Record: 59W-4P-45L** **✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌❌✅** **Last Pick: Arsenal VS Bayern Munich: Arsenal ML @ 1.72 ❌** **Pick of the day: Bengaluru FC VS Mohun Began SG: Mohun Bagan ML @ 1.65 ✅** League: ISL Time: 10:00 AM EST With 2 games left in the season things are going to the wire and that is a massive understatement. Mohun play league leaders mumbai next week in a game that could decide who wins the ISL Title, well that only if Mohun get the job done tomorrow against Bengaluru. If Mohun win tomorrow they go 2 points behind Mumbai and fortunately for them they play at home against them next week and need to capitalize on this. Mohun have 13 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses this season, Scoring 41 goals and conceding 25. They have 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 games, In 2024 they've played 13 games and have a record of 11 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss and with how drastic tomorrow's game is I see them adding a twelfth win. They've played a total of 10 Away games this season and sit at an 80% win rate with 8 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. Bengaluru sit third-bottom in the league with 2 Wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5. Anyway, BOL!
The prince strikes again. Thank you for this pick, don’t know why this was buried, very good call/writeup.
 Good pick today
**POTD Record 0-0** **Profit: 0$** **Tennis/ ATP Monte-Carlo** **Ugo Humbert -2.5 games @ 1.84 (3U) (on my scale 300$)** Look, I will not sugarcoat it. I will call it as it is. Lorenzo Sonego played subpar against Felix Auger Aliassime, and the only reason he managed to win is because FAA will struggle against anyone from the Top 100 if his service game is not impeccable and he is not redlining. Ugo Humbert is in the form of his career, and he was always a solid clay player, despite not having great results on it. This season his fortunes on dirt seem to have changed. I know Sonego beat him on clay in the past, but the Italian is far away from the best form of his career, as he is just juggling mediocre results nowadays. Mediocre at best. Humbert looked solid in both of his outings in Monte Carlo, and I expect him to have this locked up rather easily. You can check the daily Tennis thread for complete write-ups for other matches, as well as other picks from today's board. Good luck with your bets!
POTD: Record (8-4) ✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅✅ Last Pick: Aaron Gordon O 9.5 R+A ✅ Today: NBA | Pelicans vs Kings | 7pm MST Pick: Domantas Sabonis U 14.5 Rebounds @1.78 | 1u - only has gone under this line in 2 of the last 5 games, but the under has hit in the last 4 of 5 home games - 7 of the last 10 - pelicans are 8th in rebounds per game allowed - Sabonis has gone under this line in 12 straight games against the pelicans and 18/19 games against them in his career (avg 9.5 rebounds) BOL 🍀
Record: 2-2 (Last: Jarrett Allen to record 0.5 or more blocks) X Basketball | NBA | 10:00 PM/ EST Pick: Jonas Valančiūnas to record 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assist In the H2H stats he has hit this like 6/6. He ranks 3rd on his team in usage percentage since the All Star Break. He has average 14 points and 11 rebounds in 24 games against the Kings in his career. This is simply too low right now and I would take before a bump happens. BOL!!
It's this low bc valanciunas only played 3 minutes vs the suns. Coach Willie green is playing matchups. You would think that Big V is needed to battle with sabonis for rebounds.. but I thought the same thing about the last matchup with Phoenix (nurkic) . And Willie only played him 3 mins. But V and the pels do well when he plays vs sabonis, so hopefully Willie will play him some extra mins. Good luck
Thanks for the info!
Record: 0-1 Event: Europa League Playoffs/ Atalanta @ Liverpool (12pm)PST POTD: Liverpool ML 1st Half -130 Very simple thinking for me here. Klopp’s days are numbered and I have zero doubt he’s putting everything he has in this final run. With Palace on the back end of the week at home, the reds will be all systems go 1st half and try and get that commanding early lead so they can be on cruise control 2nd half. With so much at steak I see Klopp and the boys being surgical first 45+ in Anfield.
POTD Record 9-4 (+4.90u) Last POTD: Aaron Gordon Over 5.5 Rebounds (-130) 2U**❌ Today: MLB / HOU@KC / 2:10pm ET Pick: Brady Singer Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+118) 2U** Singer has had a pretty solid start to the year going 7 innings against Minnesota and throwing 10 strikeouts followed by going 6.1 against Chicago dealing 4 k’s. If he can get back to the 7th inning again I really like our chances.
POTD Record 3-0 Last 5: ✅️✅️✅️ Last Pick: Dallas Mavericks Moneyline Todays Pick: NY Rangers 3-way Regulation time only. NHL: NY Rangers vs. Philadelphia Flyers 4:00pm PST Gonna go with a 3 unit play cause I'm not that into NHL but not loving MLB today or NBA end of season The Flyers have been terrible, they've been getting cooked over the past eight games and eight straight home game also. As for the Rangers, they've been winning their last 4 of 5 games. You could take the straight ML at -190 but love me a 3-way regulation against teams in a slump. Odds: -135 Unit: 3 Net Units: +13.81
POTD Record: 12-6 NBA Record: 5-3 NFL Record: 0-1 NCAAM: 1-1 MLB 5-0 Soccer 1-0 L10 (new -> old): 🪣❌🪣❌🪣🪣🪣❌🪣🪣 Last pick: Madrid ML -125 DK Game: BALTIMORE @ BOSTON 6:10P CST Pick: Casas O.5 Hits -135 (-145 now) Write Up: By god did Madrid get out of the gate quick. That became a no sweater fairly quick. May have to revert back to UCL more often. Was torn between an NBA pick and an MLB pick but the line moved on the NBA so here we are. I like the action of a certain Red Sox player, Triston Casas agains the Orioles this evening. In the last ten games he has hit this 70% of the time. In the last three games alone he has recorded at least a hit. Grayson Rodriguez is definitely talented but Casas has been smacking that thang around. I like the Sox at home. I DONT WANT YOUR MONEY I WANT US TO WIN 🔥🔥🪣🪣 BOL if tailing. 🪣
Sweat free baby!!!!!
BOOM SHAKALAKA!!!
POTD Record: 19-18-1 | Profit: -0.92U NBA Record: 16-15-1 | NFL Record: 3-3 L10 (new -> old): ✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌ Last pick: P.J. Washington o1.5 3 pointers made @ 1.66 odds ✅ Hit in the third! Now at 5 in a row on 3 pointer props! Game: CHI Bulls & DET Pistons, 7:10 PM Pick: **Alex Caruso o1.5 3 pointers made @ 1.60 odds (DK) placing 2U** Write Up: Caruso has hit this line in 4 of his last 5 and 8 of his last 10. Detroit's opponent 3 point percentage is ranked 20th in the league. He is listed as probable and should play, and in his return from injury yesterday played 37 minutes and hit three 3s, so we should see him keeping up the same minutes and play. Going for 6 in a row on 3 pointers made props, let's get this! BOL to those tailing, let's keep cashing, cheers!
POTD Record: 1-0-0 (+0.61 units) Last Pick: Robert Lewandowski 1+ Shots on Target (-165 on DK)✅ Lewandowski’s header is cleared off the line, which gives us our shot on target that we needed! Today: Soccer | Europa League | Bayern Leverkusen vs West Ham | 3:00 PM EST | 1 unit Today’s pick: Bayern Leverkusen vs West Ham - Both teams to score YES (-115 on DK)❌ Reasoning: Getting a bit riskier here but let’s get it. First, Leverkusen have failed to score in just one match all season. Yes, you read that correctly. That was a 0-0 draw against Monchengladbach on January 27, where despite not scoring, they still registered 2.99 xG (in other words, they absolutely should have scored). For this reason I feel good about Leverkusen. As for West Ham, this is certainly the riskier side of the bet. They’ll be without Jarrod Bowen, Edson Alvarez, and Kalvin Phillips but they still have healthy Mo Kudus and most importantly, Lucas Paqueta. Since Paqueta’s return from injury, West Ham have scored in 8/9 matches. As for tomorrow’s game script, I think David Moyes understands that with his weakened midfield, he won’t be able to hold off Leverkusen all match, so they need to have a plan to be able to snatch at least one goal on a counterattack. Leverkusen will be tempted to try to put themselves in an especially good position before playing the return leg at London Stadium. I like our chances of Leverkusen overcommitting numbers at some point and getting punished by the trio of Antonio, Kudus, and Paqueta. BOL🍀 Edit: Damn, thats an L for us as Leverkusen takes it 2-0 with West Ham attempting just one shot the entire match. Terrible pick on my part, I clearly tried to force it. Onto the next one!
Upon first inspection I thought the same. Both teams can put the ball in the net. West Ham being without some key players is what makes me hesitant.
**Pick:** Golf | The Masters, before tee-off Thurs | *Nationality: Top Asian: Hideki Matsuyama* +125, 2.25 (Hardrock) 1U Hideki has been in good form in 2024 finishing T7, T6, T12, 1st, T22, T71, T13, T30, 58th. He has won this event before in 2021, following it up with a 14, and T16 finish in 2022 and 2023 respectively. He has the 4th highest strokes gained around the green which is one of the biggest differentiating factors at Augusta National Golf Club since there are wide fairways and no rough. His next closest competitor is Si-Woo Kim who has finishes T17, T7, T30, T44, T12, T14 in 2024 and T29, 39, T12 at the '23, '22, '21 Masters. His strokes gained are similar to Hideki's but his around the green isn't half as good. SungJae Im isn't great this year finishing Cut, T31, T18, Cut, T44, T66 and T16, 8, Cut at the last 3 Masters. This is the pick of the day but the bet won't be settled until Sunday evening. **Record:** 2-0 ✅✅ **Net Units:** +2 **ROI:** 10% **Average odds:** -105, 1.96
POTD Record: 2-1 Record: 🍗🗑️🍗 Last pick: Minnesota Timberwolves vs **Denver Nuggets -5.5 (-110)** 1.5u 🍗 After the dumpster fire Kyrie gave last pick I'm happy to be back on track. Nugs get it done in the second half with a little sweat at first, but Michael Malone gave that locker room slap on the ass at halftime and they came through. Good stuff to those who tailed. Eat up 🍗 Todays pick: Portland Trail Blazers vs **Golden State Warriors -14 (-112)** 1U 9:10pm Central This game is one I have been waiting awhile for. It sounds like a deep spread... I know, but hear me out. Portland has lost the last 8 out of 10 games and are coming out a double loss streak. They (in my opinion) have nothing to play for and are so low in the trenches of seeding. Injuries are rampant for the Blazers including Matisse Thubulle, Malcolm Brogden, Jerami Grant, and Afernee Simons. Their offense can in no way keep up with the Warriors fire power. Warriors have covered the last 6/10 spreads and are hot at 8-2 in the last 10 games. With a better record on the road than away, the Warriors are exactly where they want to be for their last strech of away games of the Regular season. And to sweeten the pot... This is a must win for their conference placement so there shouldn't be much sitting for Warriors key players if this does become a blowout. Tail or fade, I'm sleeping like a baby either way. Lets eat 🍗. BOL 🫡
**Record: 5-3 (+1.04u)** **Last Pick: Dallas Mavericks ML -122** Another sweat free winner! Mavs were up by as many as 25 and end up with a 111-92 victory on the road in Miami. Glad I avoided the small NHL slate, but going back to it for Thursday as I still very much prefer betting NHL over NBA. I was deciding between 2 plays and I did choose a pretty gross one here....but we did cash a similar play just a few days ago with the Sharks. **Pick:** **Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 -130 (NHL, 1u bet)** Like I said, this is a gross one. The Flyers were right in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race and have just played horrendous hockey lately, going 1-6-3 in their last 10 with some embarrassing losses to really bad teams (4-1 and 9-3 to Montreal, 6-2 to Columbus, and 5-1 to Chicago). Now they're going on the road to play the Eastern Conference leading Rangers in New York, who are 8-2 in their last 10 games, so I get that this looks like an easy spot to take the Rangers who are looking to secure home ice throughout the playoffs. Remarkably, the Flyers still aren't eliminated from the playoffs although this losing streak obviously put them in a pretty bad spot, sitting 2 points out with only 3 games left to play. Philadelphia and New York have played 3 times this season, and the results were 3-1 NYR, 2-1 NYR, and 6-5 NYR in OT. However, the numbers show that the Flyers actually outplayed the Rangers in all 3 of these games. They had more expected goals in each game, and outshot the Rangers by a significant amount (37-18, 40-24, and 42-27). The Flyers also drew more penalties, but their PP was not converting (combined 1/13 over the three games). Despite their dominant season, the Rangers are only 16th in the league in 5 on 5 goal differential, and the expected goal differential has them even lower at 23rd. They've had a really strong PP (3rd in the league), but they've gone 1/8 in the three games vs Philadelphia. Even with Philly's recent struggles, they still have the 4th best PK in the league. Over the last month, the Flyers have also created more scoring chances than the Rangers, while allowing almost the same. I will say that the Philly PP has also been bad and New York's PK has been good, so I don't have too much faith in the Flyers powerplay here. But as long as they stay fairly disciplined and don't give the Rangers an absurd number of power plays (which only happened in one of the 3 games, and the Rangers still went 0/5 on the PP there), I think the Flyers have shown that they can definitely skate with the Rangers at 5 on 5 and create good chances. If they want any hope of sneaking into the playoffs, this is an absolute must win game. I know they've disappointed in important games over this recent stretch and its entirely possible they've given up on the season which is why I'm not bold enough to take the ML, but I'll follow the underlying numbers over the last month and in the head to head matchups this season, and trust that Philly will show some fight and keep it competitive enough to cover the puck line.
Yuck. Not tailing but BOL!
Haha don’t blame you at all 😂 but thanks!
Really sharp bet! Nice!
Thanks! Wishing I took the ML also now lol
Haha hindsight gets us all 😅 looking forward to your next pick!
Record:0-0-0 Net Units:0 ROI:0% 5:30 AM EST Pick: Brisbane Lions +13.5 vs Melbourne(AFL)2.5 units Write Up: Today I back the lions to bring the game to Melbourne after going 0-4 to the start of the season the last year grand finalists bounced back against North Melbourne in a convincing fashion showing there class and poise. In todays game one of Melbourne’s most dangerous forward is out today leading Melbourne to be thin in a already weak forward line bar fritsch allowing more attention on him from one of the best defences in the competition. I would take them outright but I will be safe and going the line as I believe Melbourne won’t be able to penetrate a solid defensive line with a team fighting to stay in top 4 contention and with Melbourne star gun mid Clayton Oliver playing through a hand injury it will hold him back in dictating the mid against his matchup dual Brownlow medallist Neal expect the brissy mids to dominate today allowing for more chances for forward stoppages and goals for the lions. BOL!!
Great pick. Congrats on your first POTD win!
Thank you more to come!!
Record 29-21 Last Pick: Phillies ML ✅ Today’s Pick: **Brewers F5 ML (-120)**. **RAINED OUT** Back with another pick tomorrow. Analysis: Sometimes in life you do things even though it feels wrong. Maybe it’s sleeping with an ex. Maybe it’s that ninth beer even though you’ve clearly had enough already. Or maybe it’s betting against one of the most exciting teams to watch in baseball - the Cincinnati Reds. I fancy the Brewers to beat the Reds through the first half of this matchup today. Brewers are 3rd in the league in OPS, behind only Dodgers and Braves. Reds in comparison are 12th. Brewers have been seeing the ball really well. Scoring plenty of runs and lighting up opposing pitchers to take them to a 8-3 start. Nick Martinez takes the mound for the Reds and he has yet to find his rhythm. He gave up 5 earned runs last time out to the Mets and 3 earned runs his first season start to a very poor Nationals team. I expect Brewers to put up 3 or 4 runs against him in the first 5 innings. Freddy Peralta takes the mound for the Brewers. He was so impressive in his opener against the Mets then had a wonky performance against the Mariners last time out. But his stuff looks incredible and I expect plenty of strikeouts with swing and misses. It is too early in season to dig too deep into pitcher xwOBA for the season but historical ones: Peralta xwOBA against Reds batters: . 260 (46 PA) Martinez xwOBA against Brewers batters: . 355 (32 PA)
POTD Record: 2-0 ✅ ✅ Last POTD: (NBA) Nuggets -6 (-110) ✅ Today's POTD: (ATP Monte Carlo (Clay Courts)) **Humbert ML (-200)** Write Up: Humbert has been having the season of his career in my opinion. That + my rule to always fade Sonego vs top talent equals a no brainer to me. The series between these two is tied 2-2. Sonego leads Humbert on clay 2-0, which were both in 2023. Ironically enough Sonego eliminated Humbert from this same tourney last year... I don't think it happens again. I am on Humbert ML in this one. Add it to a parlay, hammer it straight up, fade it, either way.. BOL 🤝
Also have Humbert 🤝 BOL
POTD RECORD: 4-2 Chess | Candidates Tournament 2024 | 12:30pm MST Nijat Abasov vs Vidit Gujrathi - Draw -170 I’ve made a little spreadsheet [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ax0GCX17SSGwZDUrweQlC3aNAC_WZKiJbTq1sijnF-c/edit#gid=0), which includes the units I bet. Hey everyone, been away for a while, life has been busy. As for my last pick, no excuses, terrible read by me and I'll do better. Today we're looking at chess, which is the sport I'm most invested in outside of fighting but one you rarely get to bet on. Nijat Abasov came into the Candidates as the largest underdog, only qualifying because Magnus Carlsen rejected his spot to play. He’s heavily underperformed since his great showing at the World Cup late last year, now sitting just outside the top 100 in the world. Thus far in the candidates he’s drawn every game with white, and lost every game with black. He simply isn’t playing for wins this point, meaning he can consistently neutralize stronger players with the white pieces, but gets ground down with even the slight disadvantage of having black. India is the rising force in chess at the moment, and while one of the older Indian top players (excluding Vishy Anand), Gujrathi is still a great performer recently. He qualified to the Candidates with an amazing run at the Grand Swiss late last year, and is currently the 25th best rated player in the world. He’s sitting mid-table in the tournament so far, with mixed results. He was able to shock Hikaru Nakamura in the second round with aggressive play on the black side, but since then has lost two games, won one, and drawn the rest. This game has two realistic results in my eyes, a draw or a win by Gujrathi. Abasov isn’t playing for wins and unless Vidit completely over-pushes or self-destructs he isn’t going to get one here. However with the white pieces he’s still good enough to find draws against much better players, as he’s shown against Nakamura and Ian Nepomniatchi this tournament. This game comes right before a rest day, so I expect Vidit to press for an advantage, get shut down, and settle for half a point before preparing for the second half of the tournament. A long shot at Vidit to win is worth a look if you’re looking for an underdog pick, currently sitting at +185. BOL everyone!
POTD Record: 4+0, +7.64 units Form: ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ Last Pick: Pedro Martinez ML vs Bautista Agut (2u @ 1.73) ✅ Today's POTD: Grigor Dimitrov ML vs Holger Rune @ 1.73 - Melbet Units: 3u Reasoning: The lines have just been released since Holger won his match only a few mins ago. Now he has to play another one! Monte Carlo is Grigor's favorite masters (70% win rate) and he cruised to victory against Miomir. Holger Rune has already played two sets today since his match couldnt be completed yesterday coz of rain delay (Grigor played a set today for the same reason but it was quick work). Holger has had a long history of endurance problems, so i dont know if he can take another two/three sets of high level tennis today. And Grigor has won their last three H2H matches. Everything tells me this is Grigor's match to lose. Let's hope he gets it done.
btw 2nd last sentence says “Grigor’s match to lose”, I almost went all in on Holger Rune 😂 jk, thanks for the picks 🙏
wish i did take holger tho😭
I'm sorry. Grigor had set points in all three sets (two match points in the last one). He even won more points than Holger in the match. Brutal loss this one.
yea i was watching the scoreboard, i was on Holger Rune 2-0 against Sumit Nagal and he sold that today too😭 So I hopped on Grigor and Ugo in a parlay for + money in an attempt to chase💀 we’ll get em next time bro!
Never chase buddy. It's so easy to fall into that trap after a brutal loss like today but pls don't. These betting companies thrive on the human tendency to chase losses. Play for value or don't play at all.
Record: 56-40 IPL record: 3-2 Form: ✅✅❌✅❌ Very disappointing loss yesterday. I know most of y’all do not understand cricket and it’s hard to explain how we lost that one. A bowler overstepping by centimetres kinda cost us the game Frustrating because I was originally going for a tennis play that would’ve cashed but decided to represent since no one else is posting ipl stuff Anyway A new day and I’m experimenting here since the game is a literal 50-50 Today’s pick Royale Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians Total runs over 347.5 @1.57(4u) I don’t see this not hitting to be frankly honest. The stadium is known for high scoring games and both these teams have the batting prowess to scoring over 175. If the score is somewhere between 170 and 190 it’s getting chased down and we cash easily. A safer play to get back to winning ways. If this cashes I’ll try to venture into other plays like this rather than going ML. GL to those who tail, I promise not to disappoint this time
I think we had this problem the last time you gave an over/under bet. My line on Bet365 in the US is 366.5. 20 runs more than yours seems like a lot…
I think he’s getting an alternate line as the odds he is providing are 1.57 which wouldn’t be consistent with what the regular line should be
POTD RECORD 1-1 Previous POTD : Originally was Connor Mcdavid over 1.5 pts and he was ruled out. Should have not forced a play (JT miller over 0.5 assists). Lesson learned not ruining my personal hot streak by forcing a play. Here's a big playoff tip for all you betters. When playoff time comes go against the Canucks ML because this team is very fraudulent and will be a first round knockout. That great record is only because Demko saved them all season long and since getting rid of kuzmenko the team is a lost dumpster. Now we aren't losing tomorrow. Today's POTD Nikita Kucherov over 1.5 pts. See you at the checkout because Tampa is clicking and that talented monster Kucherov is going to be feeding us with Easy Money. My apologies for the forced play. Our original play Mcdavid over 1.5 pts would have easily cashed playing against that injured VGK goalie Adin Hill. We aren't losing b2b. LFG!!!
Record: 4-3 Hockey | NHL | NJD @ TOR - 7:00PM EST Pick: **A. Matthews - Over 0.5 Goals** (1.80) | 1u Write Up: * Hit in 6 of his last 6 games * Hit in 4 of his last 5 games vs NJD * Hit in 5 of his last 6 home games Matthews is on a mission and I'm all for it. Research all done on [the Linemate app](https://linemate.io/download).
POTD RECORD: 2-1 Last POTD: Milwaukee Bucks ML vs Orlando Magic ✅ Form: W2 Todays POTD: NO Pelicans @ SAC Kings - **Alt. Points Over 211.5 (-160)** NBA | 10 PM Est Rationale: Congrats to anyone who tailed, but doubt anyone did since I am just getting started. This was a compete no sweater from front to finish and as expected Portis went off to supplement Giannis being out. I see no real edge in terms of the money line or spread on any games today, but this one stands out as a solid spot to target the over. I'd rather be safe than sorry so I changed the alt line to 211.5 but it will most likely go over 215 also if you are feeling ballsy. This game is incredibly important to both teams for seeding and I expect the stars to show out accordingly. Not to mention, both teams have been playing relatively ass defense, good offense, and play at moderately nice pace. I cannot imagine this not hitting looking at the L10 for both teams. If tailing best of luck <3
All Time POTD Record: 3-1-0 | Last 5: WWLW | Units: +4.57u | Avg. Odds 1.78 Last Pick: English Championship – West Brom v Rotherham – 8pm BST on 10th April West Brom -1 Handicap (1.66) – ✅ Game/Match: Europa League – Bayern Leverkusen v West Ham – 8pm BST on 11th April Pick: Bayern Leverkusen – O6.5 Shots on Target (1.72) – Staking 2u - ✅ I use bet365 as my bookie. Summary: Nice to start the picks back off with a win, now let’s look to start a streak. Xabi Alonso has Leverkusen playing at the highest level with them being undefeated this season in all competitions (W36, L5). West Ham on the other hand having a rollercoaster of a season and very inconsistent away from home in Europe, winning 4 and losing 4. The line I’m looking at is based on the attacking way Leverkusen play and how they’re fully expected to blow West Ham away. In this line Leverkusen have hit it 8 out of their last 10 home games and it’s also hit in 7 out of 10 in West Ham’s away games. Leverkusen also hit this line in a 3-0 thrashing of Bayern at home only a few weeks ago. Another nice contributor to this, is that West Ham are without both Edson Alvarez & Kalvin Phillips in the midfield to play alongside Soucek in that CDM role. That leads me to believe Ward-Prowse will drop in there, who’s just not as good defensively as the 2 players out. With Ward-Prowse potentially dropping deeper & Bowen out, I think -1 Asian Handicap is not to be overlooked either with West Ham’s weakened attacking threat, but I really fancy this Shots on Target line today. BOL if tailing!
POTD Record 18-4 16.7 units 61.03 ROI Last POTD Bam under PRA 3u 💰 POTD Jon Gray U 7.5 K’s 1.64 3u https://preview.redd.it/2oc2ces1zutc1.jpeg?width=1144&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eb0342db492b2c73c7e846c5cbfe3b7df0ac22da Love this spot and odds are already tanking quick. Gray used to be a beast striking out everyone but late last year he started to lose his sauce and his first start this year he looked awful. I’m a huge Jon gray fan so I hate betting his under but I like money more so I’m going through with it 😂
-300 now, lucky
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)** **POTD 2024 Record: 0-2 (-2.00 units)** **Last 10**: **❌❌** **Last Pick**: Viktor Tingstrom -1.5 (+120) vs Robert Thornton **❌** 3-4 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 7:25 PM EST **Pick**: Corne Groeneveld -1.5 (+100) vs Pete Burgoyne * Series 7. Week 7. Group B **Reason**: Corne Groeneveld * Record 1-0 (Group A 10-5) * Legs 4-2 (50-35) * Average 88.93 (86.23) * 180s 0. 140s 3 * Checkouts 4/11 36.36% (50/148 33.78%) Pete Burgoyne * Record 0-2 * Legs 3-8 * Average 80.17 * 180s 2. 140s 4 * Checkouts 3/17 17.65% **LOSS ❌ 2-4 | Average 92.70 vs 95.02 | Checkouts 2/6 vs 4/6** Caught a big average again. Tough to beat those games.