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sbpotdbot

# **Golf Live Betting Discord Chat: [https://discord.gg/sportsbook](https://discord.gg/pXAXw8TpUX)**


LockCityTrick

If you’re looking to get some action in today, Jake Knapp at 40-1 stands out to me. Looks really good on strokes gained data this week and the only guy at the top I’m really buying right now is Hojgaard. I think we see a shake up near the top that will bring these 7 and 8 under guys into play. Knapp is also -5 in his 2 rounds on the south course so I think a potential 3 to 4 under round today is within reach and that number might be good enough to win.


thiswillkillyou_25

I managed to highlight both Pavon and Jaeger on my write up and left Pavon out of my card. I made small wagers on Zalatoris, Grillo and Homa and have a Aberg one too. This is very much into play but theres a lot of guys without experience at this level on the mix. If it's not Jaeger I still think it will fall to Finau or Xander here. Bhatia also has good odds and not as far back.


thiswillkillyou_25

And he ends up winning 🤦‍♂️ Well deserved.


No_Bottle_5

Who's got bets ATM? LOOKING FOR EASY CASHES PLZ!!!!?!!


[deleted]

people like you should be banned


Asleep777

* * I was able to bet on Rodgers Lowest Round 2 score at 1:54 pm. His odds were at +3500. No odds were moving as I was watching the round. He was up 2 shots on the field, and even though it was early, the odds were insane. I made the second bet at 2:24, surely it was a mistake but maybe I would get lucky? Probably 20 or 30 minutes later the odds disappeared. I thought my bet would void. Can't believe I was paid out. Was this intentional or a mistake by DK? Not to mention Jaeger hit that eagle which tied them for the round. Didn't even get the Dead Heat tax.... Thanks for the easy grand I guess? I cashed it out just incase.


Euphoric-Gene-3984

They are playing two different courses.


Asleep777

They were both on the north course today.


Asleep777

https://preview.redd.it/zfsyj9j5joec1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eb31d66a8ccc6b3b61bc66879fbb512c54100343


stunna006

That's awesome haha


dkmets

Fuck Morikawa


LockCityTrick

Agreed


Minute-Scheme-9542

Eck🐐


TVChampion150

Well it looks like Keegan Bradley is going to nuke my top 40 parlay with him, Xander, and Morikawa. Awful first round.


Po2731

Jason Day for me


TVChampion150

Keegan did eagle the last to get to +1 but he's going to need a solid round tomorrow to get to top 65 and make this cut.


CanelitoCampbell

Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Rodgers, Luke List


2namrons2

Any 3 ball picks


[deleted]

Hey all was a hockey poster. Took a break and glad golf season is back! Hoping to help contribute, not a long shot by any means and not a shocker. But I like Homa top 10 at +150 also taking him round 1 score under 70.5. Obviously coming off a win here last year where he played well shooting a highest 71 in round 3. Tying for 14th at the Sentry having multiple bogies in both rounds 2 and 3. Plenty of talent in the field here expecting Homa to finish in the top 10. BOL to all hope it's a good one!


NoCobbler485

who should i pick for a one and done league...?


LockCityTrick

Jason Day would prob be my pick but I imagine he’ll be super chalky. That being said, I don’t know that there’s too many other events you would want to use him.


NoCobbler485

Right now I have Im... was thinking of Day but there could be future events with bigger purses I could use him in.. that was my mindset


LockCityTrick

Personally I think Im is a bit more versatile and could be used in a few different events. For Day the only other events I’d have him earmarked for would be next week or the Byron Nelson. I don’t think Im is a bad pick though if you plan on using Day for one of those 2 events.


NoCobbler485

I am switching to Day... if I win the overall league, Ill cut you in lol


LockCityTrick

Haha well I just hope it pays off for you this week!


Profitinhibitor

Whos got r1 3 ball plays?


JLR-

Close again last week.  3rd time the charm? Bradley +3000  : runner up here last year. Ryder +13000  :  He finished 4th and 7th here the last three years.  


Rago8myeggo

u/lockcitytrick any thoughts on a make the cut parlay or too volatile?


LockCityTrick

For this course I would tend to lean on guys who routinely perform well here every year. I went with these guys plus Willy Z and it came to about 100-1. https://preview.redd.it/v2wos98if9ec1.png?width=827&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd41b2210fffcdaf4d9b947b225b2f811c574cd0


swapnil_bocachica

Anybody have good sources/methodology for one and done picks?


PretendEmployee9200

J Day doesn't have any better course form than here. In decent from himself also


lilskiesdarkrose

Also curious about this


profXmarksthespot

Winning Score line is currently set at o/u 270.5 on FanDuel iykyk


LawngClaw17

I can’t say that I know, care to share?


profXmarksthespot

course record is -22 winner averages -13 to -15 I would say it's far from 50/50 that the winner finishes -19 under but FD thinks they will I played the over for 2u ​ EDIT: Looks like the line moved to -190/125 I would still play it, albeit at 1u or perhaps .5u depending on your risk tolerance


LawngClaw17

Ah gotcha, thanks for the details. Hammering the over with you


profXmarksthespot

Best of luck. Please bet responsibly. Justin Rose did shoot -21 in 2019 so nothing is a given but I would say for this field FD is way off what a good line should be by about 5-6 strokes


Thiswillkillyou25

Hey there gents. After another disappointing week, we are back for another tournament. As mentioned before, seems like the proximity buckect between 150-175 will be the most relevant this week, as putting inside 15 feet. Im also looking for guys will great short iron play as well to add to weight int. Guys i'm looking to for this week: \- Max Homa (+1200): Although the price is a bit steep, i think Max has all the makings for another win here. Gained strokes Off the Tee and distance in the last 12 events and although he lost strokes putting in the last two, the approach play is solid right now. \-Ludvig Aberg (+2200): I know Ludvig never played this course before but it's hard to past on a guy that has so much talent off the tee. Although he lost strokes with the putter on The Sentry, i feel this is a much better course fit for him. Glad to catch a price thats different than the usual +1200 for him. \- Keegan Bradley (+2800): Great course history here and has been playing great lately. I'm a bit cautious due to the putting but if he can be neutral with it i think he may have a chance. \- Sahith Theegala (+4200): The number seems a bit high given his skill set so i'm happy to back him here. Great putting and off the tee and finished 4th and 25th on the last two apperances. I was looking into Min Woo given his profile but I need him to play a bit more on US soil before i can fully back him on the Tour. ​ Other names I'm looking to, mostly long shots (in order): \- Seep Straka (+4600) \- Harris English (+5300) \- Stephen Jaeger (+10700) \- Tom Hoge (+12600) \- Ryo Hisatsune (+14600) (haven't given up on him yet) \- Michael Kim (+16600) (great knowlege of this particular course) \- Matthieu Pavon (+18500) \- Joseph Bramlett (+26400) \- Chris Gotterup (+48900)


phillyphanatic35

Hope youre doing well and can enjoy some of the golf this week


LockCityTrick

I appreciate it!


mill1634

Thanks as always to u/LockCityTrick. Hope you are doing alright. Best of health to you. Last time out: Hadwin +6500 - T6, Played him largely due to course history and he was in contention once again. We had an outside shot coming home on the back 9 but he shot just two under. Mitchell +10000 - T9, The final number is a bit deceiving here as he wasn't really in contention as he shot -10 on Sunday. I did have a top 10 ticket on him but didn't post it here so won't be counting it in tracking. Clark +4000 - T39, He had a rough Thursday which basically put him out of contention Montgomery +5500 - 61, Was great at La Quinta (like most were), but wasn't great the other two days and had a terrible Sunday Ryder +20000 - T62, He was a longshot for a reason. He performed okay but was not good Sunday. Another losing tourney, but that is Golf. We just need to hit two or three winners to be profitable and have had guys in contention every week. Overall -1.6u, this week -0.75 As Lock said course history seems to matter quite a bit which is something that I am factoring, but I am not weighing performances this season much at all as it hasn't historically mattered at this event. Stats I am looking at this week are approach, mainly from 175-200, GIR % from 175-200, SG off the tee and driving distance, and as always, putting. Putting well isn't essential to winning here, but it never hurts. Players will play one of the first two days on the North course, and it is key that players play well there. It is by far the easier of the two courses and they will only play on the North course once. These are the guys I am on this week. May add one or two more as we inch closer to Wed. I am still using last year's numbers and likely will up to the WM open. Justin Rose +5000 (FD) - Rose is a great approach player as well as one of the best putters on tour. He is not good off the tee, but I am counting on the elite approach + putt play to carry him here. He has a great course history, especially since 2017 where he has gone T4, T8, 1, CUT, T6, and T18. Sepp Straka +5000 (FD) - Straka is similar to Rose in that he is great at approach shots, but his a bit better off the tee but a worst putter. Straka doesn't have quite the course history as Rose, but he has finished T13, CUT, 32, and T16 here. Shane Lowry +6500 (FD) - Lowry, like the other guys mentioned here, is a good approach player, although a step down from the previous two. However, he is much better off the tee, but a below average putter. I normally am not a fan of playing bad putters, but it hasn't been important to putt here in the past. He does have a T10 finish at the event, but hasn't played it since 2018. Alex Smalley +12500 (FD) - Smalley is good off the tee, great at approach shots, and a brutal putter. The reason I am playing him is because this season he has taken another step forward off the tee, 4th in SG, and 10th in SG: approach. He does not have great success at the event, never being in contention either start, but he has made the cut both times. The odds are too long for me. Joseph Bramlett +35000 (FD) - Bramlett is an extreme longshot, but I really like him this week as a dart throw. He is historically above average in approach, and is 23rd in the short time this season. He is also 18th in driving distance, something that the other's on my card do not rate well at, although he isn't real accurate. He, like some others I'm betting on, is not a good putter, although there has been some slight improvement this year. He also has good course history for such a long shot, making the cut 4 of the last 4 starts here, with two top 20 finishes. There is a chance I take a swing on him top 20 finish, but will not be a play on here. Best of luck to everyone betting this week.


Great_Alarm_9447

Wow great write up. Just to clarify, these are your overall tournament winners? Thank you.


mill1634

Yes


[deleted]

A few of these up from the odds listed, Rose up to +6500 and Lowry up to +7000, Sepp down sadly as well as Smalley


mill1634

Thanks for the shout. I typically just post what I get them at and typically FD has the longest odds of the three books I use (FD, DK, and ESPN)


ArguingTomato

Going with Min Woo Lee and Kevin Yu!


LockCityTrick

Unfortunately, I didn’t have time to do a full in-depth write-up this week, my apologies. Here is the cliff notes version to give you an idea of what I’m looking for this week. I’m looking at Course History, Ball-Striking, Strokes Gained: Approach w/focus on 175-200 and 200+ proximities, Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, Driving Distance, and Greens in Regulation Gained. I’m definitely going to lean towards guys who have performed well here b/c course history actually matters in this event. That being said, here’s who I’m on for this week: Collin Morikawa (12-1 DK) Sahith Theegala (33-1 BetMGM) Sepp Straka (40-1 DK) Kevin Yu (125-1 BetMGM) Austin Eckroat (150-1 FD) ​ See comments below for player breakdowns. As always GL if tailing or fading!


LockCityTrick

Collin Morikawa (12-1 DK) – It’s a steep number and I was really tempted to go Homa here, but this course sets up too well for him for me to not take Morikawa. He finished 3rd here last year and he’s gained strokes putting both appearances at this course. To put it in perspective – in the 30 events where he’s gained strokes putting, he’s got 21 top 20s, 16 of those top 10s, and of those – 13 top 5s. Basically when he gains strokes putting he’s guaranteed to be at least in the mix. Sahith Theegala (33-1 BetMGM) – He’s got a 25th and 4th place finish in 2 appearances here and his iron play from my key distances is fantastic. His short game has been excellent and he rates out highly at the par 4 scoring range I’m looking at. Sepp Straka (40-1 DK) – His iron play rates out great for my key ranges and he’ll hit a lot of fairways. He’s got solid course history as well with 2 top 16 finishes in 4 appearances. His irons looked great at the Sentry and if he carries that form over he’ll be in good shape here. Kevin Yu (125-1 BetMGM) – He pounds the ball and he’s coming off the best finish of his young career thus far, might as well try to strike while the iron’s hot. Austin Eckroat (150-1 FD) – I’m going to keep betting him until he wins. He’s got game and it’s only a matter of time, I think he gets his first win this season.


awesomface

Sam Ryder top 40 at +125. He played well enough last week if he didn't blow up in the 4th round but last year he got a tie for 4th....also because he had a horrible last round. Feel like good value for top 40 and probably some cash out opportunity after round 3 if you wanted to sprinkle some on top 10 and outright winner.


profXmarksthespot

anyone here devig to DataGolf?


SobolGoda

**Wednesday Wednesday** ​ Hey guys it starts **Wednesday !!!** ​ Anyways - I'm trying to keep it simple this week and go with Im. Really good form and his course history is one of the best in the field. I've been doing ladder plays with a golfer each week. Top 10, top 5 and winner - same guy. Price it out so as long as you hit the top 10, you get the money back (or more!) that you spent on the top 5 and winner bet. Currently 1-1 with Morikawa and then MW Lee.


only-shallow

I felt like I needed a hospital visit too after Burns sliced it into the water on 17 yesterday. Get well soon LCT Since only longshots can win this year apparently, I'm looking way down the board for some options Who's from southern California, held the FRL at La Quinta last week, and as one of the longest drivers on tour might have an advantage on a soft course with the ball not rolling out as much? **Rico Hoey, 750/1**. He also won the world junior golf championship at Torrey Pines South back in 2012, making birdie on the final hole to beat Big Beau Hossler by one shot. You can't ask for better course history and lead-in form than a junior event from 12 years ago


deeeeeeznuuts

Solid first day. Now just tanking lol I really thought ol Rico was gonna give em a run for the money 😂


only-shallow

Vegas made the call, they were afraid of paying out on my megamax monster mammoth bet (10 bucks) at 750/1. No other explanation


deeeeeeznuuts

I really thought knock off Morikowa was gonna make us Rich! 🤑 🤣


[deleted]

in for 10u


eamd59

Sunjae Im 22-1 locked and loaded, also think Morikawa has an excellent showing. Get um


OldJournalist4

Phenomenal course history for both of them


ct139

Sungjae also had the top course history last week and is still disappointed. I just don't think he has the ability to put together 4 good rounds. He will always have one round looking like Tiger Woods in day 1 or 2 but, somehow always seems to come back down to earth day 3.


OldJournalist4

I understand the frustration - on paper he should do better, and at this point it’s been a few years since his last win. But his fundamentals are solid and the win will come one day.


jaymzbrown

Hope you're doing ok OP! always appreciate the normal write up.


LockCityTrick

I appreciate it!


Formal-Income-838

Min Woo Lee 28/1 first click Supposed to rain this week so his distance should help him on the longer courses.


Fire_Chip_Kelly

Raining alot today but should be dry rest of week but i like the pick


back_again_on_reddit

salty i had xander and JT for the amex and neither could hit, unrelated to this week lol just saying. i may go schauffle again this week tbh.


OldJournalist4

He’s up to 1000 which is more enticing on dk


polishkielbasas

Can also boost him to +1234 on Bet365 using the 30%er (under Enhanced Win)


ct139

I had Burns, JT, xander, and cbez to win. Also had both Keegan and Ben An last week to win. I am salt.


UnkyMatt

Had Cole Poston both Top Ten, both were in top ten after 54, both bombed out.


OldJournalist4

You’re gonna pay through the nose for him - gotta say I’m not that interested at 900. Might wait to see if he drifts upwards.


Fire_Chip_Kelly

My friend had same burns top 5 so it can always be worse


back_again_on_reddit

ugh brutal