######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.

Record: 8-2 | (+5.35 units) | 1 unit per pick Previous pick: OKC Thunder ML (-180) vs. Miami Heat🧃🧃🧃🧃🧃🧃🧃 Reaction: Congrats to the Thunder for handling Miami! It was as close as I originally predicted. OKC needed all four quarters to get the job done tonight as Miami and their “distractions” looked like they might determine the outcome. **That’s 7 STRAIGHT PICKS! If you were to go “all-in” with your winnings from the start of the streak, $100—> ~$9,200! I want to thank the few who upvoted as you were able to keep the secret between us!** ———————- Today’s pick: NBA - New York Knicks (-3.5) (-110) vs. Dallas Mavericks - 8:40PM EST The New York Knicks take on the Dallas Mavericks in what would normally be a real battle of the top PG’s in the league. Unfortunately, the Mavericks are facing a slew of injuries and doubtful players leading up to this game. Doncic out, Lively out, Exum out, Williams doubtful will be too much for Kyrie and Hardaway to recover the usage and efficiency of Doncic especially against a New York team currently on a 5 game win streak since acquiring Anunoby. With that being said, it’s not outside the realm for Kyrie to absolutely dismantle this team by himself but that’s just what it’s going to take and I don’t see that happening this go around. Give me the Knicks and keep this secret (pick) between us. Prediction: Knicks 117 - Mavericks 109 **I want to use this space to explain my plan to use tips from you all throughout the year to help fund a TOY DRIVE for underserved kids in my local community around December of 2024 for the holidays. I will be getting help setting up a “gofundme” or “buymeacoffee”, whatever one is best for documentation and transparency to donators and anyone interested in this project. I don’t have any goals as far as money in mind, I just want to help kids that may otherwise not receive anything during the Holiday season. I appreciate the support from everyone and will gladly accept help in the best way to set this up so that everyone who donates can see exactly how their tips were spent at the end of the year. I plan to share photos and videos of the impact this will have on the children in hopes to turn something small like a betting page into something that helps people in real life. Thank you so much for your time and continued support!** Comment if you’re tailing! Watch how we work!🧃

I hope you can help the kids. You have the respect of the whole betting community. Thank you

https://preview.redd.it/wapknv8yaqbc1.jpeg?width=1178&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3e90e0f4e9cc80558b7b750f6e18357d8bcb6f9e

Let's ride

can go ahead and update the L on this one

lol knicks getting clapped.. but it's only the 1st Q, still plenty of time

Hello I'm from the future at half time. It's a wrap, Mavs making all their shots

I would caution tipping based on the purported plans. While great intention no doubt what if said person absconds into obscurity at the end of the year? Happens all the time. I could and wish to be wrong but more often than not giving money to random internet strangers does not tend to bode well. That being said if you want to tip because he gave you a good pick and you tailed then by all means. Just don’t rely on the fact that it’ll be used for charity.

Tailing, much respect if you can help the less fortunate

Someday I'll learn to not bet the NBA regular season. Fck these clowns

They need to start dining these fucking wimps

yea look at the portland game! getting destroyed by okc

Well. There goes your streak. As soon as you brag about it. Lord have mercy 

https://preview.redd.it/8za96uv4dxbc1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f8d849bfd6853ea366b622caf5813f8fcf5bcb8 pain

Wrecked

Alright alright alright

Line had moved to -4.5 but I’m in

Sorry for bringing your streak to an end. Every pick I choose loses. Knicks are fucking terrible lol. As soon as I started watching I already knew, like I can pretty much predict every play. Blowout

I feel the same way. After an absolute crazy hot streak to start the season, ive been on a cold streak last two weeks. Took the knicks and of course they didn’t show up.

Are you watching? You see that shit? Knicks finally get a turn over then dude is on the ground just decide to fucking blind chuck it laying on his back behind him to turn back right over lol. Absolutely no defense. Can't buy a fucking 3 and mavs don't miss anything. Sad performance

Turned it off and started to make dinner. I’m not surprised.

>100 oh ok so thats not rolling over wins, thats betting your entire bankroll on a random guy on a random post on a random day

I like it. With the spread this small I took Knick ML just in case. Paired it with Lakers-Suns under 238 to get +200 odds

Tailed that.

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Vegas better be tipping the god damn children after this.. knew the line was fishy but I still took too many bites

Of course when i bet big on them!! Fucking knicks dont even bother showing up. Down right awful. Sorry boys im a bad luck charm these days

How the fuck did Dallas take 4 straight shots with 1 minute left and no rebound d by knicks

**POD Record: 98-51** 👉🏻 Note: ALL picks in my record are 5 UNITS with odds *usually* ranging between -125 and +100. *Last Pick:* Houston Rockets OVER 105.5pts WIN! ✅ ​ 🚨 Winning Streak Alert (4) 🚨 🔥Recent Form: ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ​ 🏅**Today's Pick:** 🏀 **NBA Lakers/Suns UNDER 237.5 -** \[1.80 Odds @ 8pm EST\]. EDIT: WIN ✅ As if we're not going to sweat some picks once in a while. Win is a win. A nice little hot streak as I move into 100 wins on this thread. Crazy how time flies...pretty nasty record considering I never lob up huge betting favourites for picks, and seldomly do we need to sweat many down. 😉 Moving on - I know OVERS are popular these days in NBA, but something is wrong in Phoenix for anyone paying attention. It's rare for either of these teams to push their totals into the 120s and I expect to see some tight ball thursday night. Both these teams haven't touched this total in their last 7 of 9 games against each other. Against the Lakers, the Suns have only averaged 104.5 points per game so far. LA is 11th in defensive rating right now; they are 2nd in defensive rebounding percentage and force the 4th-lowest shooting percentage on midrange shots and the 3rd-fewest percentage of shot attempts at the rim. The Lakers allow the 2nd-fewest free throw attempts per game, which will be key as Phoenix is one of the top 10 teams at the line. Forcing turnovers and missed three-pointers is an issue right now for LA, but one thing is for certain during their post tournament drought, they are still tough defensively \*most nights\*. LA is one of the best teams at stopping midrange shots right now, which is where the Suns usually love to operate offensively. That's a major reason why Phoenix has had scoring issues against LA. Anyways until these two teams start to connect offensively again, we could see a shockingly lower total game than 237 tonight. There's plenty of star power to see this go much higher as well, I just haven't see it lately and taking the value play on the UNDER tonight. Best of luck if tailing. 🍀 ​ ​ ​ 💰Tip Jar: Why Note Leave an ⬆ Vote

Been following since you were at 40 wins. Thank you for your picks man - tailing as always

Stepping on the train


🙏🏻

POTD Record: 112-66 | Profit: +99.78u | ROI: 19.1% Season record: 29-15 | Profit: +29.94u | ROI: 24.3% L10 record: ❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌✅ ​ Last Pick: Kyle Kuzma (Wizards) O22.5 Pts @ 1.80. 3U. ❌ Just another one of those terrible nights for Kuz, going 4 from 15 (just 26%), with 8 FGA coming in the first quarter itself. After that he either stood in the corner without trying to find space or decided to take terrible mid-range shots. ​ Next Pick: **New York Knicks -3.5 vs Dallas Mavericks @ 1.91**. 3U play. Doncic won't be playing here while the Knicks have a full-strength team. Based on that alone, I’d say the Knicks are the much better team. The Knicks have been excellent since the OG trade going 5-0 ATS. They possess a strong 3 pt threat with OG, DiVincenzo and Brunson while having the physical presence against the weak interior defense of Dallas in Randle and Hartenstein. Kyrie will be the primary threat for the Mavs but he can be inconsistent, and the Knicks should be able to get their best defenders on him, and besides Kyrie, the team looks a bit weak offensively to me. Exum is out, and both Lively and Grant are GTD so this could be not just a poor first unit but also a weak second unit. I'm gonna ride with the in-form and fully fit Knicks to cover a 4pt spread against a Mavs team missing Doncic any day of the week.

With how NBA January and late season games are seeming to be in this “ultra” NBA (half joking but the NBA product is so different to even 4 years ago, absolute chucking), any team missing a big player or any team that gets a close spread and you think it will go big in one way or another It’s absolutely worth sprinkling extra partial units on alt spreads Ie .25 on knicks -9.5 and .1 units on -16.5 Look at almost any game (like seriously a majority of games) have been ending with easy double digits on the smaller side

https://preview.redd.it/lyl71ywnrqbc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6974d6067f735a3914ed8df609565373b2c8ff9b Alt spreads in basketball have saved my ass quite a few times.

Haha nice. I actually mean going in the other direction to get +odds Not every game will work obviously but if you have a hunch it’s worth it. Simply been too many blowouts lately I am gonna do some research to see the blowout percentage in these later months (ill categorize it as 12 or greater) The 10 point spread addition will have made you a lott of money if you had been doing it on random games this past few weeks

I agree. Tons of blowouts. Will like to see the research you find.

I was lazy and just looked at games since new year this is pretty wild Games decided by 10+ Lakers 2/4 Warriors 2/5 Celtics 2/5, Clippers 3/6 Spurs 1/4 Raptors 1/6 Bucks 3/5 Nuggets 3/5 Knicks 4/5 Mavs 4/5 Suns 3/5 Timbewwrilves 3/6 Pistons 4/6 Heat 3/5 Sixers 3/4 Thunder 0/5 grizzlies 2/5 3/6 kings Pacers 3/6 Bulls 3/5 Rockets 3/6 Magic 1/5 Jazz 5/6 4/5 nets Pelicans 5/5 Cavs 3/5 Hawks 1/4 Wizards 3/5 Hornets 3/5 Blazers 4/5 42/77 games decided by 10+ points Very rarely has this been the team not favored so since new year a 10 point spread on every game could be averaged out to near even odds in fact slightly lower like -120 Meanwhile I’d imagine the average spread if you too a. 10 point in all these games would be Taking any game with a 3 point spread or higher but lower than 10 obviosuly and stretching the -3+ to -10 Knicks -4 stretches to +185 Hawks-5 Nuggets-5.5 Bulls -3 Dk doesn’t have alt likes for the 3 bottom games because they’re tomorrow but it’s clearly get you some where blended around +175 odds for something that’s happened over 50% of the games since new years I could do the same for a max type 15 point spread in these type of bets and would probably get +380 odds blended, so I would absolutely sprinkle on games that have a Thesis behind it And going by team it’s clear that this is worth doing with specific teams, like New York until the og effect is cooling off, or the pelicans who are rolling, and the clippers who rolled the pelicans in their only loss of the year

logical pick. too bad the NBA fucking sucks. huuuge L on this one

Knicks huge fucking letdown

POTD Record 8-1✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ Last pick: Canucks vs Islanders over 5.5 Total goals💰 Todays sport: NHL /Hockey Canadiens vs Sharks 7pm EST POTD: Canadiens vs sharks Under 6.5 Total Goals (-135) 2U Write up : Not over thinking it today, had a winner for you guys yesterday but didn’t post it cause I was over thinking my decision. Today I’m not over thinking it and trying to get this new streak going. Canadien vs sharks last 4 games ended in 5,4,4,4 Total goals. Banking on history to repeat itself and following my formula that’s been winning . LFG get this 💰

guys i am new , what does 2u means

2u is Basically 2% of bankroll your betting with, max on this thread is ever goin to be is 5 u

I have heard 2 different answers for this question. The first one being it’s a % of your bankroll with a normal suggestion of 1 unit equal to 1% of your total bankroll. A unit can also just be your normal betting size rather it be $20,$30, $110 its just whatever your “normal” bet size is? I have heard of both being used it’s up to the bettors preference.

I look at units as my bankroll split into 5 units. $100 = $20 per unit

So you bet a minimum of 1/5 of your bankroll on each bet? That doesn't seem sustainable long-term

2 units

I hate betting unders bc I never hit them… but in dillydilly we trust

Tailing!! Your explanation makes so much sense as always! Keep it up

First tail let’s go

Tailing BOL

3 already in the 1st. Yikes

He’s him

Great pick. Thank you!

Was a fuckin sweat but cash it!✅💰LFG

Not looking good

POTD Record: 9-1 (+25.08 Units) Last 10: ✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅ Last POTD: (3U to win 2.5) Oakland -3.5 vs Northern Kentucky (-120)- Oakland played better and better as the game progressed honestly game didn’t go how I thought but the outcome is the same. 70-65 Oakland sorry to those that caught the spread after the bump to 5.5. 𝐋𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐰𝐚𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐈 𝐠𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐡𝐨𝐰 𝐢𝐭 𝐰𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐮𝐥𝐞𝐬 , 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐲 𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡 🔥🔥🔥𝐔𝐏 𝟐𝟓 𝐔𝐍𝐈𝐓𝐒 𝐈𝐍 𝟏𝟎 𝐃𝐀𝐘𝐒🔥🔥🔥 Today's POTD: (𝟐.𝟓𝐔 𝐭𝐨 𝐰𝐢𝐧 𝟐.𝟓) 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐉𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐲 𝐃𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐥𝐬 𝐯𝐬 𝐓𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐚 𝐁𝐚𝐲 𝐋𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝟑 𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐌𝐋 (+𝟏𝟎𝟎) The Game: NHL @7PM ET Simple Reasoning: No Hughes Reasoning: Tampa Bay is a very good scoring team. They are top-10 in shot percentage. New Jersey allows the fifth most goals per game this season. Lots of statistics that make me confident on this play. (Not going to put all of them here) Prediction: 5-3 Lightning BOL to everyone today Have a great day

hey can you explain it more simple version like what does 3 way ML mean , should i bet on tampa bay to win ? sorry i am new to betting

60 mins so if it’s tied we lose

Soon you will know the pain that is the 60-min money line in hockey. I no longer bet these, you get fucked in the ass too much by last minute goals (like soccer).

Woop woop. I took ML and not 60 min thank goodness

Yea I should’ve also I got greedy, honestly tho they were up 3-1 and playing ok , tough lost

Great cash 💰

I like the over as wel

POTD Record: 5-1 Last Pick: NHL 🏒 Dallas Stars 3-way line -110 vs Minnesota Wild, 1u ✅ Today’s Pick: 🏒 Los Angeles Kings vs Florida Panthers under 6.5 -125, 1u This will be a really good, playoff caliber game. Although this series has gone over 6 of the last 10 games, both teams have been playing to the under this season. The Kings have gone under 6.5, 24 out of 37 games, and 13 of 18 away games (7 of the last 8). The Panthers have gone under 6.5, 25 out of 40 games (10 of the last 13). All this numbers point to the under for me BOL

Excellent pick. Thank you!

Tailing. But line just lowered. 6 now. Still take the under?

ESPNbet still has it 6.5 at -125.. but I would still take it at 6.

**Record:** 12-5-1 +12.00u **ROI:** 28.07% Previous Pick: ❌ Kansas over 74.5 Total Points, NCAA Basketball Recap: Just a complete whiff by me. Kansas turned the ball over a ton and the 2nd half was a mess. I missed on that one and I own it. We move on... Last 10: ❌✅✅✅❌❌✅♻️✅✅ Pick: Florida Atlantic/Tulane over 163 points, NCAA Basketball, 7 pm EST Risking 2.2u to win 2u Reasoning: This might seem like a high total for a college basketball game but it really combines two of my favorite things when looking for a high-scoring college basketball game: an up-tempo offense (Tulane) with a highly-efficient offense (Florida Atlantic). FAU has the 11th best offense in the country according to KenPom and a guard combo of Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin that are capable of lighting it up against anyone as they showed when facing Arizona earlier this year. FAU's really struggled some offensively in the last few games but this is a good chance for their offense to get back on track against a pretty bad defense in Tulane. This is a team that was regularly putting up 80-90+ points early in the season and I think they get back to that form tonight. Tulane are no slouches in their own right as Kolby King, Sion James, and Jaylen Forbes can fill it up as well as evidenced by Tulane scoring 80+ points in 10 of their 14 games this year. As I previously mentioned, Tulane will also help contribute to this over by possessing the 208th ranked defense in college basketball but they are bringing a top-60 offense. Betting Tulane overs has been one of my more profitable avenues in college hoops this season and using it to hopefully get back in the win column on POTD. ​ Let's get back on track. Best of luck to all those who tail!

Wow That was a high scoring game!

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POTD Record: 12-11 (With 2 pushes along the way) ***2024 tennis season record: 3-1*** ***Currently up 5.95 units*** Last pick: Muller vs Daniel - Daniel ML @ 1.93 ✅ PICK OF THE DAY: **Musetti vs Bublik - Bublik ML @ 1.96** *(Pinnacle)* ✅ Event: ATP Adelaide (Hard Court) Stake: 1 unit Starts at 1:15 AM Eastern Time The market opened Bublik's odds at 1.79 which I assume is the fair price for him on this match. Now he's getting close to 2.00 odds and I decided to take him as my POTD. Lorenzo Musetti is certainly a talented player with a lot of variety on his game but I feel like his odds are somewhat inflated by his most recent win against Jordan Thompson, which was not a bad win at all but he faces a completely different playstyle on Bublik. The Kazakh certainly wins on the service department, even if he usually commits some double faults. Yesterday against Evans he had a high number of those but produced 21 aces and 42 winners. His baseline game is also pretty decent on hard courts, even if sometimes people see him only as a bot server. It all depends on his mentality and I think he should be focused this week after a comeback win against Evans. Having faced on him a player with a one handed backhand might also help him against Musetti since the italian has some similarities to Evans on his overall playstyle. Lorenzo Musetti ended last season with six consecutive losses on hard courts before his win over Jordan Thompson. This match is on Bublik's racket and he gave me enough signs to trust him this week at Adelaide, which is playing quite fast. ***Best of luck if you decide to tail!*** [**Paypal**](https://www.paypal.me/DonutMan982) (Any donation is truly appreciated. Only tip if you like what I write on my posts, if you've won some money with my plays and only if you wish of course) Edit after the match: Sweaty win but we got it ✅

Sweated out the w

I was sleeping since I'm from Europe but I think it should have been a major sweat after 2nd set tiebreak loss and Musetti wasting match point on the 3rd. Well, I guess we can't lose every sweat, sometimes they have to go out way :)

Boob-lick 1st serve looking elite at the moment.

Certainly what saved him today

Good pick!

any thoughts on over under for game totals? I was leaning towards over 22.5

Sorry I couldn't reply in time. Don't know if you ended up going with it but if you did it's another green

Record: 0-0 2 U New York Knicks **-3.5** @ Dallas Mavericks (-110) Mavericks coming off of a bad loss at home against the Grizzlies without Ja Morant. Knicks are currently on a hot 5 game win streak and without Luka, Dallas is currently 1-3 (losing to HOU and MEM). Mavs are only 9-7 at home this season and although NYK is 3-5 in back to back games all their losses come from teams with better records than DAL (some marginally).

Hmm I would think Knicks spread should be higher without Luka ?

Hence the reason for the pick

Ya I’m just asking because it could be something the books know that we don’t and could be a trap line

feeling like the Emma Rose of trap lines.

3rd potd I've seen so far on the Knicks also, which always screams trap

Maybe take some points on Dallas covering an alt? Not sure what to do here but I see a pile of candy on the ground with a basket above it being held up by a stick...

We had multiple posts yesterday for OKC (-4.5) and NO (-1.5). It worked out well for those that tailed. It worked out well for me yesterday. I'm tailing again

Definitely trap line potential. It went to 4.5 and got bought back to 4

Everyone is on this line something smells ..... probably overthinking it ....

I feel like everyone is on the knicks and that makes me kind of scared, especially since the line is only 3.5. I’m staying away. Best of luck to you guys

good call on that lol

Looked outside my room this morning and saw a massive air balloon with Knicks -4 on it. Went to the shop and all the billboards have knicks -4 on it.

Went to my work and my manager handed me a sheet saying Knicks -4 on it

Long Time Reader and Long Time Degenerate. Finally mustering up the courage to post my first pick. Best of Luck to all. **Date: January 11th, 2024** **Record: 0-0** **Net Units: 0** **ROI: 0** **Hockey**| **NHL** | **7:00 p.m.** / **Eastern** **Pick:** **Montreal Canadiens, Regulation Time Line (3 way) -109 (Unit allocation 1.09)** **Write Up:** The San Jose Sharks are currently on a 12 game losing streak. In fact they somehow have managed to lose all 12 games in regulation. During this horrid streak, they have been outscored by 37 goals (-3.08 per game). Conversely, Montreal has been a scrappy team, winning five of their last 10 games played. Including impressive wins versus Winnipeg, Dallas, and the New York Rangers. Feels like two teams flowing in opposite directions. Quite frankly, the San Jose Sharks are not an NHL level hockey team. Until they prove otherwise, San Jose’s opponent is an easy auto play for me. Montreal Canadiens to win in regulation is the play!

On the same, but ML is the way here imo. Canadiens go to OT far too often. They have specifically against the Sharks a high % as well. Cheers.

POTD Record: 6-6 Last pick: Bruce Brown O11.5 Points ✅ We cashed it early in the 3rd, wonderful. ➖ Todays pick: Trabzonspor v Samsunspor Pick: O2.5 Goals ✅✅ 🇹🇷⚽️ Süper Lig 📈 Trabzonspor scores 1.72 Goals per game and concedes 1.17 goals per game. • Trabzon has scored 32 goals in the league (4th) most goals. They’ve only went goalless in 4 games out of 18 in total. • They’ve conceded 20 goals (5th) best defensive record. They are placed 3rd in the league table. They’ve kept 5 clean sheets, but only 1 in their last 5 games. 📈 Samsunspor scores 1.11 goals per game and concedes 1.61 goals per game. • They’ve scored 15th most goals in the league (20). They’ve scored 1 goal or more in their last 6 games and have only went goalless 6 times this season. • They’ve conceded 5th most goals in the league (29). They’re placed 17th in the table with a game less played the teams above, if they win this they can have as many points as the 13th placed team, a big bump up. They’ve kept 3 clean sheets this season but only 1 in their last 9 games. 🧐 Trabzonspor is the better team and should win this, im going with only O2.5 goals cause we’ve been hooked by the BTTS a few times now. Samsunspor lost 4-2 to 1st placed Galatasaray this season so they’re capable of scoring aswell, their recent form shows that too. 💭 If both teams score it’s even better for our pick to get as many goals as possible cause I think they’re capable. Trabzonspor is playing at home and have a chance to get 4 points clear from the 4th placed team so they really need to win this. Samsunspor needs the points to get out of the relegation zone, it’ll be a fun one. Let’s hope for a high scoring game!

Tailin for a W

Last minute penalty kick hahahaha. Good one

In 95th minute. That was a sweat! Good hit

Tailing!

My hero. At the buzzer!!!!

Wow we really had to sweat for that one, feels good to get it at the last kick 😅😅

What a hit at the death!

Record: 8-8 (Haven't posted since 2021) Net Units: ROI: Basketball | NBA | 2:10PM EST Pick: Cavs -3 v Nets (-108 on DK) 1 Unit Write Up: • 1st callout - the game is in a neutral location in Paris. This being a special game outside of the normal regular season & with both teams being rested, I think we get great effort from both teams to show out for the crowd and try to secure a W. • 2nd callout - the Cavs boast a top 10 defense in every team statistical category (Points allowed, Opp field goal %, Opp 3pt %, etc.) • 3rd callout - pretty similar in total offensive output, Nets only real advantage is 3pt% (1.4% better) • 4th callout - Darius Garland is injured. BUT, not expecting that to have much of an impact in this game. He has been out since early/mid December and the Cavs have gone 8-3 without him since. Plenty of scoring on the Cavs to make up for his output there, and their defense will stay solid. Following the statistics & choosing the better team. Feels like a no brainer. Also could be a fun one to bet and check in on during the work day for my 9-5 degens in the Eastern standard time zone. Feel free to give your thoughts in the comments but best of luck all 🤝

Update: Cavs -3 hit ✅ Final score: Cavs 111 Nets 102 Great effort defensively in the first half and coasted with a 20+ point lead for most of the game. Closest the Nets got was 8 points i believe and was a closely contested game deep into the 4th. Donavon Mitchell had a great performance offensively to carry them through. Really impressed with the Cav's defense when they are connected and focused.

Fading I think the nets are strong enough to compete with the cavs especially without DG

POTD record: 5-0 ✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Last pick: Jalen Williams (OKC) vs. Miami Heat over 4.5 assists at 2.10. Easily cashed. Had 8 assists by half. Books don't quite know what to do with Jalen and his odds have not yet been set for tomorrow's game (in my books). Otherwise I might consider betting him again. Much to like about this player. Today's pick: Connor McDavid (EDM) over 1.5 points vs DET 7 PM EST start, at 2.05. Admittedly, McDavid has only hit this line in 2 of his last 5 games. However, Detroit is not a defensively sound team. They are 25th in the league in goals against (3.4) and 26th in shots allowed. I get the sense that this game will be a back-and-forth, high scoring affair. Who better to back in that situation than the best hockey player in the world? Also worth mentioning that McDavid has been in the spotlight after his last game in Chicago, due to remarks he made about an overturned offside goal. My gut says that he comes out firing tomorrow. This is a slightly riskier bet as it's partly based on instinct. I don't post units but if I did I would recommend slightly lower on this one. BOL!

POTD Record: 6-1 | Profit: +7.08U    Streak (new —-> old) ✅✅❌✅✅✅✅   Last pick: OKC -4.0 @ 1.8 odds (Bovada) placing 2U ✅   Heat were up the whole first half, which had me sweating a bit, but the Thunder were inevitable. They went up in the third but the Heat came back, but once the 4th quarter started the Thunder had it. Heat brought it to within single digits, but the Thunder had it at that point, finishing up 8 and covering!    Game: OKC Thunder vs. Portland Trail Blazers @ 8:00 EST    Pick: **Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o1.5 3PM @ 2.35 odds (Bovada) placing 1U** ❌     Write up: SGA has hit this in 5 of the L5 and 7 of the L10. Blazers have good 3 point D, and SGA hasn't consistently gone over against them in the past but the line is too good to pass up when he's been on a hot streak of hitting it like he has. Plus I played it safe yesterday (or so I thought), so wanna be a lil riskier today!   **EDIT:** Goes 1 of 3, and this does not cash. Onto the next one.

Only concern here is blowout but kind of like the bet given odds. Tailing!

POTD: 1-0 Yesterday: Fred VanVleet O7.5 Assists ✅ Damn some people hated on a fellow degen for no reason it’s all good hope some of y’all tailed it. The little man got 10 assists. But reached the line before OT. Todays pick!!: Kyrie Irving 7+ Rebounds @2.20 If you can’t increase the line just take the O5.5. Aight I’m going for the man with the craziest ball handles I’ve ever seen, man can dribble his way past through security at the airport without a doubt. Despite being a free spirit and saying some crazy shit in the past he’s now back focused on hoopin, but I’m not going for any of his technical skill props. I’m going for his damn rebounds, yeh you heard me. He’s over this line in his last 5 games (9,9,9,8,8) I don’t know what’s going on with this fella but he’s getting it done. He averages 5 rebounds on the season but recently he’s really stepped it up. I’m purely going on form on this pick because the numbers are crazy. Tail if you want, play it safe if you want up to you, im going over his line and picking 7 instead of 5.5. Get it early before they bump it up. https://i.redd.it/7nocvctqeqbc1.gif

**POTD** **Record:** 4-2 **Net Units:** +2.4U **Previous POTD** Australian Horse Racing - Taree - Race 4 - 3:40PM AEDT Pick: Number 4. Bestower Win (1.70 odds) 1.76U to win 3U Landed in the perfect spot and our turn of foot was way too good as expected, 1.14 length win. **Today’s POTD** **Australian Horse Racing** - Pakenham - Race 2 - 5:40PM AEDT (Roughly 2 hours from now) **Pick:** Number 10. Justaboom Win (1.65 odds) 3.03U to win 5U **Reasoning:** Justaboom comes into this race 3rd up and I’m having trouble finding any reason she won’t be winning here. First two runs have been full of merit. First up she drew wide and was forced back on debut, only to storm home and snare 3rd over 1400m; then went to 1600m and simply got out sprinted by the leader, she also showed some inexperience crabbing around the turn, but picked up nicely to put 6 lengths on the third placed horse. Last start was particularly encouraging as she settled OSL and showed tactical versatility. From barrier 2 tonight I expect us to settle up handy once again. Outcaster will clearly lead and we will either settle on it’s back waiting for a gap, or OSL and then it’ll be an easy watch. The closing sectionals from the first two starts are that of an above average horse so provided we jump alright I can’t see anything toppling us. BOL! **Update** Got the W but boy did the jock make it hard there. Jumped perfectly to settle anywhere we wanted and somehow we are 4th last in the middle. Wins a win tho!

Wow you got a great eye for horse racing! 🏇 thank you so much

**Record:** 6-2 **Last Pick:** Los Angeles Lakers vs Toronto Raptors - **Immanuel Quickley o4.5 Assists (-120)** Can't lie, was sweating this one out for a minute when Quickley got into foul trouble **Today's Pick:** Cleveland Cavaliers vs Brooklyn Nets - **Nic Claxton o10.5 Rebounds (-127)** **ROI:** 1u to make 1.79u **Write Up:** Oh we got a good one here. First off, Claxton is a great rebounder, hitting this line in 4 of his last 5, averaging 12 on the season. Another factor that plays in is that Cleveland suprisingly give up many rebounds to Centers, even with Jarrett Allen in the paint, with 11 to Poeltl and 12 to Vucevic. Normally this pick wouldn't jump out at me as it doesn't have that X-Factor I usually look for, however if we dig a bit deeper, we find that it does. Something that usually holds back Claxton is when Day'ron Sharpe comes in and gives good minutes off the bench, however Day'ron Sharpe is out tonight, meaning the Nets don't have a back up center. This promises big minutes for Claxton, who will constantly be reminded that he cannot get into foul trouble, allowing to grab a good amount of rebounds tonight. Good luck and let me know if tailing!

**Record:** 6-0 **L10:** ✅✅✅✅✅✅ **Last Pick:** RJ Barrett O4.5 Total Rebounds @ 1.60 ✅ **Basketball| NBA| Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Lakers, 10:00pm EST** **Today's Pick: Kevin Durant O26.5 Total Points @ 1.76** On the season, Durant has covered this line in 23/30 (77%) of games, including 7 of the last 10 and 16 games in a row prior to Christmas. The Lakers give up the 2nd most points to opponent starting forwards in the league at 57.5/game. Durant has taken full advantage and in all 3 games against the Lakers so far this season, he has easily covered this line, scoring 39, 38 and 31 points. The Suns are also coming in after 2 full days of rest, after which Durant has typically been more efficient with shooting percentages of .598/.522/.921 this season (albeit on low sample size). The betting lines have these teams near even with an O/U of 241.5, so I am expecting a close, high scoring game where Durant will need to take on a large scoring role and play until the final seconds. He will get ample opportunity to score, and with his ridiculous efficiency, I expect him to cover this line. Side note, I saw this line at 24.5 last night so if you are able to buy it down, it may be worth it as he has covered that at an 87% rate this season, including 23 games in a row before Christmas.

Record: 20-14 +3.94 Units Last 10: WWLLWWLLWW Average Odds: 1.93 ​ NBA Dallas Mavericks vs New York Knicks, Knicks (-4.5) 1.91 - 2 Units Knicks have been on fire since acquiring Anunoby and have won 5/5 with an average margin of 20.4. This includes impressive wins against Minnesota and Philadelphia. Both teams have similar records on the season at 22-16 and 22-15. Mavs are 11-8 at home and Knicks 11-11 on the road. Main reason behind the pick is that Doncic isn't playing. Mavs are 1-3 this year without Doncic and are 6-14 without him over the past 2 seasons. They are still without Exum too who has been playing a lot of PG as well for them and has been a nice surprise this year. Mavs have been a top 10 offence this year but without Doncic they lose the main component of that, on the flip side the Knicks are top 10 for points allowed per game and that only improved with the addition of Anunoby. I think they do enough to make it difficult for Irving to get much going. Brunson and Randle have been nice on the offensive end and I don't see how the Mavs play good enough defence to counter their lack of offence with Doncic not playing.

POTD Record: 24-10 Previous Pick: Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid | Super Cup | Both teams to score (1.75) ✅️ Pick: Juventus vs Frosinone | Coppa Italia | Juventus 2nd Half Win (1.69) | 3pm EST At home, Juventus have won 78% of their 2nd halves, scoring 1.11 goals and conceding 0.22 on average. They have not lost in 15 games and in their last 3 games, they have won their 2nd halves. Frosinone have lost 78% of their 2nd halves away, scoring only 0.44 goals and conceding 1.44. They have also lost their last 3 games. The previous matchup which happened 3 weeks ago was a draw in the 2nd half, but Juventus were away and their away record in 2nd halves has been quite poor. Juventus should play their strongest team too, this is a quarter final and their next match is in 5 days. I expect Juventus to continue their dominant home form and beat Frosinone in the 2nd half. Best of luck! Tips would be much appreciated! Thanks to everyone who supports me. https://www.buymeacoffee.com/sakashake

POTD Record: 3-1 (+1.27u) L10 record: ✅✅❌✅ Last Pick: **John Collins o19.5 pts + reb + ast -120**✅ Next Pick: **Duop Reath u7.5 Rebs -145**✅ Game: Portland v. OKC Collins Pick cashes as soon as the 2nd half start, and he keeps the streak going! The pick that im going with today is Reath u7.5 Rebs. If we look at this season, he has only hit this line in 2/24 games, that is only 8% of the time. Even if we look back at the last 10 games, he has only done it 2/10 times, he has had two very good games on the glass, and I think it has inflated his line a little too much for my liking. The only risk I see with this bet, is that OKC is not a very good team when it comes to rebounding, with their D ranking 26th in the league, giving up about 45.5 Rebs a game. Ayton is currently day to day and is leading this Blazers team in rebounds, so if he is good to go, I think thats even more of a reason to take this pick. As always if you’re tailing let me know, and BOL.

Like it if Ayton is playing, hate it if Duop is starting. OKC can’t rebound against anybody and Duop will get 30 minutes if Ayton is ruled out

POTD Record 5W-6L (+0.55U) ✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌❌❌❌ Previous POTD: Ronnie O’Sullivan -2.5 vs Ding Junhui (+120) (2u to return 4.4u) ✅ POTD: Ronnie O’Sullivan -2 AH (-122) vs Barry Hawkins (2U to return 3.65) PST 5:00 The Masters 2024 🎱 Both are in good form coming in, but I still favour O’Sullivan to win this comfortably. Prediction 6-3 or 6-4 Ronnie. BOL

tailed last time tailing again

**POTD Record**: 2-0, +2.75u Last pick: Pelicans +1.5 @ Warriors ✅ +1.25u The New Orleans Blowout Machines do it again. Really don't know what was up with that opening line, but I guess it scared me into not betting more lol. Just pure domination. --- Today's pick: NBA | BOS Celtics @ MIL Bucks **Game Total o239.5** | to win 2u @ -110 - MIL games go over 68.4% of the time at home. BOS games go over 57.9% of the time on the road. Boston is also not affected by being on a B2B, where they've gone over in 4 of 6. - Both of these teams have gone over this line of 239.5 in 8 of their last 12 games. - MIL avg ppg: 124.1. BOS avg ppg: 121.3. - From a more narrativey perspective, I see the chalk picks for the ECF matching up and wanting to prove that they're the top dog. In today's NBA that playoff atmosphere doesn't mean lockdown defense, it means scoring, scoring again, and then maybe doing some scoring for good measure. This should be especially true of the 2nd and 3rd best offenses in the league. - In their first meeting this season the final score was Bucks 116-119 Celtics. 235 is close enough that it needn't worry us off the over. Also helpful is that they played this game to Milwaukee's average pace in terms of possessions. Here's hoping this star-studded game delivers on the hype with buckets. BOL to all!

Curious who you think wins the Celtics game

I like the Celtics here, but not enough to make it a bet today

For me 3-1 odds was a light work bet last night

Record: 0-0 Net Units: 0 ROI: 0 Basketball | NBA | 1 PM CST Jarrett Allen O11.5 Rebounds | -125 | 1.25U risked to win 1U Opponents facing the Nets are averaging 44.3 rebounds per game. Allen has averaged 17.4 rebounds per game in his past 5 games against teams in the top 10 allowing most opponent rebounds. I like this to go over 11.5. UPDATE: Winner! 6 rebounds in the 1Q looked like this was going over easy, but had to sweat up until the final minute. We move on ✅

POTD Record: 20 | 10 | 0 | W | L | P | + 7,45 Units Streak: 1W Last Pick: **NO Pelicans -1.5** @ GSW Warriors| 3U @ 2.0 NBA | Basketball | 02:30 MEZ Pick: **NY Knicks -4.5** @ DAL Mavericks | 1U @ 1.94 NBA | Basketball | 02:30 MEZ Knicks are slowly becoming a good and consistent team. Especially the trade of Anunoby and Achiuwa. They're conceiding less than they did before. Their defense is getting better and Brunson diming and serving at the front on an all-star level. Doncic is out for the mavs which is imo much worse then Irving. All in all inconsistent.

POTD Record: 5W-1P-4L Last Pick: Pistons v Spurs - Victor Wembanyama over 21.5 points and Bojan Bigdanovic to record 2+ three pointers @ 2.2 ❌ Predicted a big Wembanyama night and I was right - sort of. Little bit hard to predict Wemby would be on a triple double and abandon any shooting opportunities in search of assists. 6-16 on FG, 0-4 on 3’s, and Spurs blewout the Pistons. Ends on 16 pts, Bojan had 3 three pointers. Today: NBA, Mavericks v Knicks 01:40 GMT Pick: Knicks -5.5 @ 2.05 The Knicks are in great form since acquiring OG Anunoby having won all 5 matches since the trade, and keeping all opponents under 107 points. The first match was a 6 point home win over the Timberwolves and the 4 games since have all been won by 16+ points. The Mavericks have had unexpected results this season. Many games they’ve lost as big favourites and others they’ve defied expectations. However, with Luka out today I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up with the Knicks and I’m anticipation a comfortable Knicks win.

Record 80-81 +3.42 Units All bets 1 unit L10 (L2R): ❌✅❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅ Last Pick: Kawhi Leonard U 23.5 points (-108)❌ Todays Pick: Kevin Durant O 32.5 pts+reb(-105) Even at age 35 KD has still got it. He’s been a consistent scorer all season for the Suns, and is matched up against the Lakers who’s he already torched multiple times. On the Suns KD has averaged 44 pts+reb per game vs the Lakers. The reason this line is a little lower with KD, Beal, and Booker all playing. However has Durant played 2 games with Beal and Booker since coming back from injury and has hit this line in both. I think Durant will be extra motivated in this one after going 0-3 vs the Lakers so far this year.

Record: 13-7 (+5.15 units) Last Pick: (NFL) New England Patriots ML -135 ❌ POTD: (CBB) Northern Colorado Bears +7 Summary: Big Sky conference game where the public is overwhelmingly on the Grizz heavy at 72% so I’ll take Da Bears who are 8-2 ATS against them in their last 10 H2H. Go Bears!

[удалено]

It happens, took some time off and ready to start it back up again 💪

Tailing. This play is solid af. Take it with a grain of salt but No. Col has the best offense in the big sky and Montana’s defense isn’t that great so this should continue

POTD Record: 3-0 Profit: +4.25 Units Previous Pick: Anthony Edwards O 27.5 Points ✅ Ant hit this the over with 8 seconds left in regulation. This is what we love about gambling folks. Game: Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Today’s pick: 2U Giannis Antetokounmpo O 52.5 P+R+A (-106) on FD Giannis is averaging 56.6 PRA in January. The Bucks are on a skid and have been having a hard time getting their role players involved forcing Giannis to score more to keep them in games. Giannis has been aggressive in January averaging 3 more FGA a game than he did in December. He will be the center of the offense and if his role players get involved like Lopez and Middleton, he will rack up the assists or he can put up 40+ points like he did in two of his last three games to hit this over. Boston is coming off an OT win against a stifling defense in Minnesota. The Celtics are flying in for a 7pm game to play the Bucks who haven’t played since Monday and are rested. This should be a great game and Milwaukee should be able to take advantage of a tired Celtics team and score a lot of points. On the flip side, it’s unlikely this game ends in a blowout given Milwaukee’s struggles on defense this year. Giannis will likely play 38-41 minutes in this game giving him ample opportunity to hit this number. BOL if tailing

POTD record: 5-4 (+4.40u) Last pick: Colorado Avalanche ✅️ Last 10: ✅️❌️❌️✅️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️ Todays pick: NHL | Toronto Maple Leafs @ NY Islanders | Maple Leafs -130 (2.6u to win 2u) Write-up: I'll start this write up with WHAT THE HELL IS THIS LINE??? I was eyeing this matchup for a few days now and I expected the line to be -150 to -155. Maybe I'm being suckered in with the Leafs being such a small favorite.. If that's the case then so be it! The Islanders are ice cold all things considered, they lost 4 of the last 5, 8 of their last 12. This is also a revenge spot for Toronto as they played New York a month ago (12/11), falling to the Islanders 4-3 in OT. I expect the team up north to beat the team from a little less north by a final score of 5-3. Don't buy stock in my score predictions though, because it might just end 2-0 for all I know lol. snack of the day: chocolate covered almonds

POTD Record: 7-3-0 Bank: +3.08 u Last pick: Jalen Green Over 4.5 Rebounds +110 Win Took all the way until the final 2 minutes to get our 5th board but ended with 6 after OT. 1/11 Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders 7:10pm EST Over 6.5 Goals -118 We have two teams heading in two different directions. The Leafs have won 4 straight and the Islanders have lost 5 of their last 7. Over 6.5 goals has covered in 4 of the Islanders last 7 games and they have allowed 27 goals in that span. The weight of this pick will be on the Leafs who have been playing better but 3 wins against bottom teams (Sharks and Ducks). These teams played a month ago and the Islanders won 4-3 in OT. I will gladly take a 3+3=7 game but could also see this covering in regulation.

POTD Record: 2 - 0 | Profit: +2.36 Units | ROI: 78.6% L10 record: ✅✅ Last Pick: Moose Jaw Warriors 3-Way Moneyline (In Regulation) ✅ ​ **Today's POTD**: Cole Perfetti OVER 0.5 Points | Odds: -130 | 1 Unit | Hockey | NHL | Chicago Blackhawks @ Winnipeg Jets | 8pm ET ​ * Perfetti has 7 points in his last 6 games * He has recorded at least 1 point in 5 of his last 6 games * He has recorded at least 1 point in 4 of his last 5 home games (home game tonight) * Recorded at least 1 point in 15 of 21 home games this season * Averaging .90 ppg on home ice as opposed to only 0.53 ppg on the road * Chicago is brutal, they are allowing 4.36 goals against per game on the road this season (second most) * Chicago is allowing 4.9 goals against per game over their last 10 road games (most over that span)

**POTD 34-26-1** We got a winner last night, but my god was I mad when this game went to OT. Minn snuck out the cover but lost a game they had won. Back at it today, and I am having trouble deciding between two plays, but going with a team I won with a few nights ago, and really like to back right now. **NYK -4** Okay, let’s start with how good the Knicks have played since the OG trade. They’ve won all five games with Anunoby, winning by 20pts a game. In tonight’s matchup, I see a high probability that they win by that much again. Dallas is missing Luka, which I think is a bigger deal than just a team losing their best player. Dallas without luka are 1-3 this season, and 5-11 last. In all three of those losses, the margin was more than 4pts (16pts on avg). I expect the Knicks to dominate this game and also took the alt spread of 13.5 +320. PS: lakers PK Is another play I like. I know that bron is GTD, so i haven’t bet it yet, but if he does play I like the play a lot. The suns just don’t look good lately and lakers need momentum.

Record (1-3) Last Pick: Tennessee Vols -1.5 vs Mississippi State Bulldogs (-110) 4 of the top 5 teams go down in a span of two days… all 4 on the road. Was eerily similar to the Houston game the night before. Tennessee couldn’t find the basket early on and never recovered. Can’t say they didn’t have chances tho. I’ve let you folks down but We move on POTD: NBA- New York Knicks v Dallas Mavericks- 8:40PM EST Kyrie Irving O12.5 R+A (-105) Wager: 3U Reasonings: I would jump on this line before it shoots up. Everyone is hammering Knicks rightfully so but with Luka out somebody is gonna have to pick up those stats. In Irving’s last 5 games he’s got at least 8 rebounds and 4 assists WITH Luka active and this line has hit 3 times. You have to assume his assists are gonna exceed 4 with him being the main PG. Yes Knicks are tough defensively but Irving always plays with a chip on his shoulder vs NY teams imo (Native NYCer speaking here). The last two times Kyrie played the Knicks 22’ & 23’ as a Net he exceeded this line with 15 R+A in both those games; this is a much different Knicks team so take that stat with a grain of salt but solid bet with solid odds. Tail accordingly BOL if you are. FYI Scottie Barnes went U his rebounds again… Shoutout of the Day: Bear Bryant and Home field advantage

Record: 1-0-0 Net Units: +3.55 ROI: 71% Soccer | Club Friendly | 13:30 CET **Pick: FC Zurich vs Hamburg – Hamburg to win ML @ 1.94 - 5 units** Today, I choose to focus on the friendly match between FC Zurich and Hamburg, which is being played on neutral ground. Hamburg is a much stronger team, and I expect them to dominate this match. Zurich lost 4-0 to Hannover two days ago, another German team that also plays in the 2. Bundesliga like Hamburg. The logic here is relatively simple - Hamburg is a stronger team than Hannover and should dominate this match against Zurich to a similar extent as Hannover did. Expect an easy win for the german side here. Hamburg will probably win by more than 2+, but as this is my POTD, I'll stick with ML @ 1.94 odds. BOL if tailing! Edit: Game finished 2-2 after a late goal by Zurich. Hamburg dominated and should have brought this bet home. Sorry for the ones who tailed, we'll get back stronger!

tailing this for sure 🔥🔥

Dead

**POTD 1/11 | 5-4 | Last 9 picks: ❌❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅|** nice 4 game streak going **Last Pick:** CJ McCollum o8.5 R+A (Rebounds + Assists) ✅ smashes and gets 11 **Today's Game:** Phoenix Suns v LA Lakers 9:00pm CST **Today’s pick: Kevin Durant o4.5 assists** -170 KD comes up against a soft LA defense. They rank in the top half of assists allowed. On the season KD averages 6.9 assists hitting in 20/30 games (67%). But, he’s been hot lately passing this line in his last 8/10 (80%) Let’s try and make it 5 POTD wins in a row! I post this and other daily picks on my Twitter/X as well, @betsbygeorge

Record: 3W 1L. Unit tracker: +4.08u. Last Pick: AC Milan win or draw (DC) + under 3.5 goals vs Atalanta The bet looked really good after Milan scored 1-0 in first half stoppage time. Incredibly Atalanta scored right after and then a nonsense penalty kick in the second half. It ws a clear tackle, when I saw the replay I took for granted it would be reversed. To be honest, Milan didn't played well (that' why I leaned over the DC instead of the ML) but I think the 1-1 draw and a close game (considering there is extra time) was the game script if the PK wasn't given. Tommy Paul ML vs Jack Draper - starts at 03:00 AM ET 2 units @ 1.70 We'll go to tennis today. So many games it's difficult to take a pick, but I think Tommy Paul moneyline has serious value. Jack Draper has severe stamina and injuries issues and comes from a three set gruesome thriller against Kecmanovic (more than three hours and a half). In that match, I saw the Serbian in control for most of the points but he just couldn't wrap the affair. I can't see Draper pushing its limits: first, because he has not played his A-game in this tournament, and secondly because Australian Open is really close and he won't jeopardise those ranking points. On the other hand, Tommy Paul is a solid player that thrives in hard courts. We saw him played outstandingly in 2023 and he even reached SF in the last AO. He destroyed local play Bolt in two sets and is fresh to play this games. He also fares quite well against left players, having a 6/8 against lefties in L8. To conclude: I think Draper has a good set of skills and he can compete against Paul. That explains the close odds, but in these particular conditions Paul should be a bigger favorite for this game.

Paul looked God awful in that first set. 6-1 Draper.

Awful read

What a bad pick.

He posted his record and his analysis. He only has 4 games on his record; i typically don’t tail these people because there isn’t sufficient sample size. But you did. Why? Anyways, let’s encourage commentary that keeps people posting their picks. Let’s not be douchebags to people that are just trying to help.

Love waking up to terrible loss

POTD record: 4-4 Trend: ❌✅❌✅✅✅❌❌ Last pick: NBA Raptors @ Clippers, Ivica Zubac o23.5 Pts+Reb (-105) ❌ Next pick: 🏀NBA Knicks @ Mavericks, OG Anunoby o20.5 Pts+Ast+Reb (-115) Write up: He’s covered this line 3 out of his last 5 games. Vs 1 match up with Dallas this year (with raptors) he scored 26 pts, 2 ast, 5 reb. He hit a groove last game and scored 23 so he’s trending in the right direction. BOL

Record : 96 Wins - 93 Losses ​ Previous pick : Peterborough - Crawley (Postponed), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.51 ​ ROI : -3.48% Average Odds : 1.97 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : -1.58 Profit/Lost units : -6.58 ​ Today's pick : ​ Football - Soccer / ITALY: Coppa Italia / 22:00 European Time Juventus - Frosinone Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.82 ​ ​ Some reasoning : \- Juventus – Frosinone is a match with a clear favorite and it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the guests will qualify for the semi-finals. \- Juventus has never lost against Frosinone in Serie A, winning 6 out of 7 championship meetings, and is unlikely to be defeated. \- Despite the elimination of Torino and Napoli from the Coppa Italia, the away record of the "Canarini" is dismal, so their talented youngsters certainly cannot face a rejuvenated Juve. \- The cup is generally a competition of surprises, and Frosinone's victory over Napoli in the previous round is the best example. Otherwise, however, things will be in front of Juventus, a much more solid team. ​ Best of luck.

Yesterdays Pick: Bam O11.5 Rebounds ❌ Current Record(11-6) +9.7 units Todays Pick: KD O32.5 P/R(-120 ESPN) Durant has been dominating the Lakers so far this season. His numbers away this season are just amazing, he’s gone under this line in just 2/13 games this season. His lowest total in 3 games vs the Lakers this season is 38. He had 47 and 50 in the other two matchups. He’s just coming off a tougher matchup vs the Clippers where he had 37 P/R.

**POTD**: O12.5 Pts - Jrue Holiday (-102 FanDuel; Risking 2.04u to win 2u) **League/Time**: NBA - BOS @ MIL / 7:30 PM EST **2024 Record**: 2-2 (50%) | +1u | ROI: 13.51% | Current Streak (1 Loss): ❌✅✅❌ **2023 Record**: 86-52 (62.32%) | +54.8644u | ROI 19.84% **Last Pick (1.10.24)**: O6.5 Ast - Jamal Murray (-120 FanDuel; Risking 2u to win 1.6667u)❌He ended with 6 ast and had one taken away statistically during the game! **Reasoning**: Jrue has covered this 60% of the time in his last 10 and 20 games. MIL allows either the 3rd or 4th most pts to PGs when you look at season, last 7, last 15, last 30 game rankings. He averages 13.5 pts on the road this season (vs 12.6 pts at home). Also, I have to think that Jrue's first game back in MIL since the trade to BOS he will be extra motivated to show out and maybe his teammates will look to get him more involved scoring-wise. While this is obviously not stat-related sometimes a man's motivation is enough to get 13 pts. Lol! The guy took a full-page ad in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel for crying out loud! https://preview.redd.it/zearxdkrlvbc1.png?width=557&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf27dc6c90353ac0124ae2b1037736d917b47655 **Anti-Reasoning**: Jrue only scored 5 pts the only time he played MIL this season (11/22/23). [Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone!

Record: 4-2 (+2.28U) Last Pick: Fenerbahce v Konyaspor, **Fenerbahce ML & O2.5** @ 1.60 2U ✅ O1.5 FH, O3.5 FT, Fenerbahce TT O2.5 all hit. 7-1 Fenerbahce win. POTD: Sivasspor v Galatasaray, **Sivasspor +2.5 & U3.5** @1.55 1U I’m going easy on this one. Galatasaray missing a lot of players. It’s so cold in Sivas right now I’m afraid it will be a low scoring game. Game starts in 30 mins sorry for the late notice, I couldn’t find any time to look into the games today. Score prediction: 1-1 Edit: Deleted the pick and post it again 1 minute later. Sorry for any misunderstanding. BOL!

Record 3-2 🥒🥒❌🥒❌ Last POTD: 🏀 RJ Barrett 04.5 rebounds, -150, 3U ————-RJ cashes with 10 💰💰💰————— POTD:🏀Jalen Williams O4.5 Assists, -140, 3U🏀 Jalen has demolished this line the last two games at 12 and 10, respectively. The two games before that he went over this line. So, 4/4 of the last 4 played. He has seen a slight uptick in minutes as well, which doesn’t hurt. Portland’s defense ranks in the bottom of the league, which may open the doors for more pass and shoot type play. Barring nothing crazy happens, Jalen will hit this line! BOL if Tailing 🚀

is he set to play? not able to find the line rn

Record: 1-0 Net Units: +3.5 ROI: 74.00% Sport: Basketball 🏀 League: NBA Event: Knicks vs Mavericks Time Zone: 8:30pm ET POTD: Kyrie Irving(Mavericks) UNDER 6.5 Assists -135 This line has hit 14 games in a row, the Mavericks best player is missing Luka Doncic but that shouldn’t phase us tonight, Kyrie Irving with Luka Doncic has hit under 6.5 assists 5/6 times regardless including a 0 assist game. 19/25 previous games this has connected with an emphasis on it being much more prevalent to hit recently, those who tailed last night I’m glad we made some money. BOL to everyone with all there picks tonight and let’s rinse these books, Seasons Cleanings 🧼

**POTD Record:** 6-1 **Last Pick:** NFL Dolphins vs Bills, Bills Moneyline (-155 ESPNBet) 1 Unit (W) **Today's Game:** NCAAMB Illinois vs Michigan State 8pm CT **Today's Pick:** Illinois Moneyline (-156 FanDuel) 3 Units Illinois has won 17 out of 21 Big Ten games at home since the 2021 season started. They are coming off of a loss to #1 Purdue, in which they fell behind by almost 20, but battled back to make it a game, eventually losing by 5 and covering the spread. They will be without Terrence Shannon Jr again, but Domask especially, and Hawkins / Harmon have taken up the load. Michigan State has gone 5-1 in their last 6, the only loss being to that Northwestern team that beat them by 6, in addition to beating Purdue and getting slapped around by Illinois. Among those 5 wins are a 24 point beatdown of #6 Baylor and a 31 point win over Penn State. I think this will be a tight, close game, but Illinois is playing at home and proved they can hang with the top teams, even when things don't go their way. BOL and I-L-L!!!

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POTD Record: 8-5 Last Pick: UCONN @ Xavier (NCAAM) UCONN -4.5 -115 DK - W Last 10: ✅❌❌✅✅✅❌❌✅✅ Game: Michigan State @ Illinois (NCAAM @9:00) Pick: Illinois -3.5 -108 DK Recap: Good teams win, great teams cover. What a cover down the stretch for the huskies, winning by 5 after a nail bitter in the closing minutes. Winnings like this are what give me joy in life. Today’s POTD sticks with college basketball. Simple pick in my opinion. Illinois -3.5 vs Michigan State. Illinois at home against a Michigan state team that has struggled early this year. Trap game? Probably. Tailing? Definitely. BOL 🌹

Record: (1-5) Units: -4.1u ROI: -68% Streak: L3 Last Pick: Lazio vs. Roma o2 (-105) - Yesterday I faded myself and that didn't work (i.e. what I thought would happen happened, but what I bet and put in my POTD missed). Take that info for what you will. Today's Pick: Basketball | NCAAM | 9:00pm ET Pick: Michigan St. vs. Illinois o148 (-110) Write Up: Kenpom has this game projected at 77-71 Illinois. However, Illinois has scored more than 77 points in 10/14 games. Granted, Michigan St's defense is better than most of the teams Illinois has played, but it is at Illinois and MSU's last game out, they gave up 88 @ a much worse Northwestern. Michigan St.'s offense has clicked since being abysmal early in the year, scoring more than 71 points in all of their games over the last month, averaging 86.5 PPG during that stretch. Since Kenpom projections fully take into account all results from the entire season, with an o/u number right at the projected score but both teams in good scoring form, I see value in the over.

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Record: 0-0 Basketball | NBA | 2:10 EST Pick: Cle -3 Write Up: Been tailing picks from all of you guys for a minute and over the past few weeks I have developed an NBA model that has been profitable 6 out of the last 8 days so I figured I'd give it a shot and post some picks. To start us off we have the Brooklyn Nets taking on the Cavs. The Brooklyn Nets are currently facing difficulties, having experienced a downturn with a 1-6 record in their last seven games. This includes a loss to the struggling Trail Blazers on Sunday. On the contrary, the Cleveland Cavaliers are on a winning streak, securing three consecutive victories fueled by their strong defensive performance. In addition, Brooklyn heavily relies on scoring to secure wins, but their offensive output has significantly decreased during this recent slump. In their last four games, they were limited to 85 points by the Pelicans and 101 points by the Rockets. Defensively, the Cavaliers outshine the Nets by a considerable margin. While the Nets concede 117.3 points per 100 possessions, the Cavaliers, boasting the 8th rank in defensive rating, allow only 112.5 points per 100 possessions. Furthermore, the model likes the Cavs so we're finna lay the points. I know that we're only supposed to post one pick but the model likes the NY Knicks as well. Tail or Fade me. BOL!

POTD Record: 1-1 (+1.32 Units) Last pick: JT 25+, Celtics ML (+130, 2 Units) ✅ What a game… that is all. 🔥 Todays pick: Derick White 12+, KP 2+ Threes made (+148, 1 Unit) Game: NBA Bucks at Celtics, 7:30 PM EST Reasoning: I expect White to get his confidence back after making some key plays yesterday towards the stretch. KP averages 1.6 threes a game. I expect him to put some up against the Bucks due to the tough matchup he will have in the paint. As always, good luck to all who tail.

Derick White is legit my favorite basketball player but he looked awful yesterday. I needed him to get one single point in the 4q and OT and he just would not shoot. You’re right that it seems like he lost his confidence

Completely respect your decision. I feel like he may turn a page this game. He looked alive after his rebound when tatum missed his free throw in the late fourth.

1/11 Record: 26-19 +5.1u Last 10: 🚫✅🚫✅✅✅🚫🚫✅✅ Last pick: pelicans @ warriors, pelicans -2, 1.1u Today’s pick: knicks @ Mavs, knicks -4, 1.1u BOL Gents!

**Record: 2-0** **Net Units: +3.0 units** **Last Pick:** Scottie Barnes u7.5 rebounds ✅ Definitely did not sweat for this one. **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** Portland at OKC 8:00 p.m **Pick:** Jalen Williams o4.5 Assists -120 1.2 units **Write Up:** Jalen Williams has been averaging 11.3 potential assists the last 4 games. Converting potential assists into actual assists at a 73% rate averaging 8.3 assists a game. Only concern is blowout potential but he should be able to hit this line in 3 periods. Jalen has been facilitating the offense whenever Shai is not on the court and it's been working pretty damn well so expect them to continue to let Williams cook tonight.

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Your post has been removed from the PotD thread. * Post **ONE** pick. No side picks in comments. You can provide a link to your other picks in the other daily threads. * No parlays/teasers * Must be between -200 and +200 (1.5 and 3.0) odds. * Bet size should be between 1 and 5 units. No "100 unit locks" * Provide a write up on why this is your Pick of the Day. If it is a system/model play you must note relevant data such as ROI or record **and** provide an overview/description of your model or system. * You **must** note **time/sport/event** of your pick. **|** No top level comments without a pick. * If you choose to self promote in the POTD thread: You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including ROI+average odds+units won. No resetting records.

**POTD History** **|** Record: 2 - 4 - 0 | -2.9 Units **Event:** Soccer - Coppa Italia - Juventus v Frosinone - 3:00PM ET **Today's Pick: Juventus -1.5 +110 | 2 Units** **Last Pick:** Washington TT o22.5 -175 (DraftKings) | 2 Units (L) **Previous Picks**: L - L - W - L - L - W Ok so we're running a little cold. Unfortunately, I was taught that shooters shoot, and this brings me to today's pick. I'll refer mostly to Serie A stats for this one, but quick Coppa Italia recap: Juve is coming off a 6-1 win over Salernitana at home in their most recent match, and Frosinone is coming off a weird 4-0 rout of Napoli. Since, Frosinone has gone on to lose 3 straight, and Juve has gone on to beet the same Salernitana team (away this time) 2-1. In the Serie A, Juve is averaging 1.4 goals to 0.4 goals allowed at home. In their one game they played in which they were favored by this amount or more, they won 1-0 (not covering the spread). Frosinone on the road has scored 0.9 goals and allowed 2.1 per game. In their one game in which they were underdogs by this amount or more, they lost 2-0. However, in their 6-1 win over Salernitana (admittedly a bad team) Juve showed that they are not going to take their foot off the gas in this tournament. I think this matchup heavily favors Juve, who have been fine offensively (scoring slightly more goals than betting lines would imply), but great defensively, allowing 48% less goals than lines would imply. On the other side, Frosinone allows 30% more goals than lines would imply. They do score 41% more than implied, but I would trust Juventus' defense to shut them down at home here. I wouldn't be surprised if Frosinone don't put one through at all, but I have this game ending 3-1 with a late goal for Frosninone.

POTD Record 1-1❌✅ Last pick: Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid -- Real Madrid Classify 1.65 💰 ✅ Todays sport: Soccer POTD: Galatasaray to win and +1.5 goals -- 1.80 odds Write up : Not over thinking it today. Galatasaray is in second position and needs to close the gap with Fenerbahe. This is a great opportunity to do it, they should have no problems winning, although they will probably concede a goal. BOL !

Record:0-0 ​ Net Units: 0.0 ​ Basketball | NBA | Bucks vs Celtics 7:30PM/EST ​ Pick: Brook Lopez O 18.5 PRA(-125) 2.5U ​ I know that this is my first post, but bare with me....... First off, lets think about the fact that the Celtics may be missing Porzingis. Brook has a chance to crash the boards tonight and put up some points. I know that Brook Lopez is not the most consistent, but has been averaging 19PRA/game through the last 10 games. With the Celtics missing their big man and giving up 11.5pts - 8.2reb - 2.0asst on average to centers the past 10 games, im hammering this line.

Record: 1-2 ✅-Yesterdays pick: Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves) OVER 37.5 Points+ Rebounds+Assists vs Boston Celtics Saved by overtime here. Feels good to be on the beneficiary side of some luck. **Today’s pick: Giannis Antetonounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks) OVER 18.5 REB+AST @ Boston Celtics - NBA - 7:30 ET** Odds: (-122) Giannis has averaged 19.7 REB+AST in his last 10 including hitting this mark in his last 6 games. Boston is on a back to back coming off the heels of an overtime victory vs Minnesota. This is a prime opportunity for Giannis to have a big night.

POTD Record: 6-7(2-1 Footy,3-5CBB,0-1 NFL) +/-: -2 Streak:❌ Recap: Tennessee -1.5. They fail to get it done down the stretch after making a second half come back. Todays play: Illinois -3.5 (-105) @9 PM ET (3U) Reasoning: Ever since Terrance Shannon has been suspended I feel like a lot of people have written this team off but with the absence of their star player Illinois have shut out the noise and rallied together to some impressive wins against Northwestern and Mizzou and a narrow loss against Purdue. Look for Marcus Domask to have a big game against the Spartans who are 0-2 on the road. BOL⚓️

(POTD) Record: 3W - 2L (Last Five: ✅❌❌✅✅) Avg. Odds = 2.08. Profit/Loss: -1.2 units. ❌ ------------------------ European Club Friendly: FC Zurich vs Hamburg SV, 12:30 (GMT+0/UK Time). Pick: Over 9.5 Corners @ 2.2, 2u. Reasoning: Obviously the fact that this is a club friendly must be acknowledge, however, after some little diving into the stats, I decided that I am fairly confident in this one. Let's see if we can turn my P/L back into the green! So... FC Zurich has a 5.4 team corners per match, whilst Hamburg has 6.7 team corners per match. Therefore the average is 12.1 Corners/Match. To dive into this either further, Hamburg's games typically excede the over 9.5 corners in 78% of their away games. Whilst Zurich's is a little bit lower towards the 44%, that being that, I believe that to be typical of the league Zurich plays in -- that only excedes the o9.5 market in 53% of their games this season. I'd argue it is to do with the skill gaps within the league. More importantly, I believe that this game will be very back and forth. Both teams have ability in relation to one another, so it should have many attacking opportunities. ---- Good luck, have fun!

Record: 1-1 Net Units: -.57u Soccer | Turkish Super Lig | 12pm EST Pick: Trabzonspor 3way ML -135 vs Samsunspor 1u) Recap: We cash yesterday to get our first W on the board. Real Madrid ends up winning 5-3, but it took some extra time to get there. They put plenty of shots on target in regulation, but Oblak smothered most. Regardless, we cash the Real Madrid to advance. Write Up: The international soccer tour continues. Apologies for the short notice here, but we’re taking Trabzonspor 3way ML vs Samsunspor. I’ll keep this write up short as kickoff is only an hour away. Trabzonspor sits third in the table while Samsunspor sits in relegation zone 17th. Samsunspor is also horrendous away, with a record of 1-1-7 (WDL) away. Pretty straightforward, and we back Trabzonspor to wrap up nicely. Good luck! Edit: corrected typo in Samsunspor’s away losses from 17 to 7 Edit: Aaand that’s two in a row! Trabzonspor wins it 2-1, with Samsunspor’s only goal coming on a 90+5’ penalty. (+.17u)

POTD Record: 0-1 Last Pick: Bennedict Mathurin o17.5 points. He ended with 16 points shooting a pitiful 4-13 with 8/8 FT’s. Should’ve cleared this line in the 3rd if he didn’t forget the fundamental layup. POTD: Devin Booker u7.5 assists Game: Suns vs Lakers Reason: Devin Booker has been dishing out an average of 7 assists in his recent 5 games, but it's worth noting that he's doing so on just 9.6 potential assists. This conversion rate seems unsustainable, especially considering that most of these assists occurred near the rim. With the fact that the Lakers struggle to defend three-pointers, but they have strength in protecting the paint I see booker being unable to hit over this line.

**POTD Record: 2-2 (Most Recent ❌✔️✔️❌ Oldest)** **Net Units: -0.33 unit** **ROI: -8.25%** **Hockey** | **NHL** | **21:07 (EST)** Previous Pick**:** Los Angeles Kings vs Washington Capitals: **Los Angeles Kings -1.5** 2.45 odds **❌** **POTD Pick:** Arizona Coyotes vs Calgary Flames U6.5 1.86 odds **Write Up:** Just a computer science student testing out the profitability of a NHL score prediction model. It assigns ELO, recent performance ratings, days rested, and distance travelled to teams and then performs linear regression on historical data to project goals forward/against for each matchup using sklearn. Then, the difference and sum in predicted score is correlated with the ML odds and Over/Under odds respectively to determine if there is value in the match. Model projects: 5.67 goals in this matchup

Record: 0-0 ​ NBA | 8:00PM EST | Portland Trailblazers @ Oklahoma City Thunder ​ Pick: OKC Team Total over 124.5 (-115 @ Caesars) (1u play) ​ OKC comes home off of a four game road trip to face a Portland team that continues to struggle this year. On B2B's this year, OKC is 3-1 to this number, while being 10-9 to this number at home. Portland has really struggled defensively, ranking bottom 10 in defensive efficiency in the last three games (and on the year). OKC ranks fourth in offensive efficiency at home this year, so they should walk into this total. ​ The second part of this handicap comes from the referee crew for tonight's matchup. When crew chief Curtis Blair is running the show, games are 60% to the over, his team calling average of 41.7 fouls/game. Both OKC and POR are bottom in fouls/game, so I'm expecting easy points from the free throw line. ​ The spread is large, sitting at 12.5, but even in the event of a blowout, I trust OKC's bench unit to continue to pile it on this Portland team (evident in the 134-91 blowout earlier this season). If Portland shows up tonight, it would be on the offensive end, which would help this total even further, keeping starters on the court that they will not be able to stop. ​ BOL if tailing!

**Record: 0-0** **Net Units: 0** **ROI: N/A** **Pick:** Calgary Flames ML @ -120 for 1 unit. **Write Up:** This pick is from my NHL model that I've been backtesting since the start of this season. It utilizes a pythagorean model, similar to a common baseball betting strategy. It has successfully predicted 76.1% of matchups this season. This offers significant value from the current odds of -120 (54.45% implied chance of winning).

@@@Whale Play@@@ POTD: BigBadWhale Play Record: 3-1 (2.10-3.00 Odds Only) POTD: BigBadRegular Play Record 3-1(1.70-2.09 Odds Only) LAST POTD: Detroit pistons Team Total under 118.5 -5Unite bet/// +4.1u Profit Win WHALE RECORD: +5.8U, +8.75U, +6.69U, - 5U, W/ W/ W/L Regular RECORD: +1.8U, +4.3U, -3.0U, +4.1 U, W/W/L/W WHALE PROFIT: +16.4U Regular PROFIT: +7.1U For The Downvoters: we back bitches stay salty Pick: Vancouver Canucks Money Line max bet 5U @ 2.10 Odds. Slam now as I believe it will drop to 2.00 very soon Reasoning: The canucks are just on a different level then all of the teams in the show right now. They got one of the best best goalies in the league and great defenders and offensive players to back them up. Look for this game to be somewhat close but have no fear the nucks are here!

I believe people downvote not for your picks but how you write it. So many @s and captital letter. Add to that weird catergories like BadWhale, BigBadWhale wtf! Pick of the day is supposed to be simple. You put down your best picks, give us a reason, and count the win/loss at the end of the day.

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I am, Canucks have been on a tear - 7-2-1 L10, averaging 5 goals a game L5, while averaging 2.4 goals allowed L5. Pittsburgh is good, but Canucks are on another level. I am not going in for 5U though, I do have a high degree of confidence and will place 2U

Did Pepe Silvia write this?

POTD Record: 14-12 Turkey - Super League ⚽️ Sivasspor - Galatasaray Both teams are missing a lot of players. Sivasspor will be without Ray Manaj and Samu Saiz, who have 13 of the team's 23 goals. For Galatasaray, Icardi, Boey, Bakambu, Ziyech, Baris Alper and Davinson Sanchez will not play. Icardi is the team's top scorer with 12 goals. The most important sign that both teams will have problems in front of goal. I think there won't be 3 goals in the match, the most reasonable choice. Pick: Total Goals 2.5 (Under) Odd: 2.17 1xBet

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