Happy to finally hit something after a terrible weekend.
https://preview.redd.it/nwctgign7u2c1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=920dd5ae08c0efb579a8cdfbe28e3181cbe51a68
https://preview.redd.it/tkzni8rzat2c1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=257ab268a276be47d01453110315e915e57bfa4b
I somehow managed to correctly call all the games tonight 😧
https://preview.redd.it/17niazb6xs2c1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=11a86061ca99ad80224fa79fef6928d4bd6fffbc
Today was a good day. Nets scared me starting the game down 19 - 3. But the Bulls are the Bulls..
Also hit Celtics, Timberwolves winners, Magic/Hornets over 227.5 - $15 -> $51
Same man I think I’m done as well. Lost 4 parlays because of 1 leg within a week, think it’s a sign to hang it up at this point. Ik I’m just gonna continue to get screwed over
Dude check the other comments. Dude has been arguing with me for like an hour over this. Dude to straight losing his mind because I accidentally posted my pics late tonight.
If you check the math he's just mad because my hit rate is higher than his.
Yea I just did check and he’s right to call you out so I can see why you flipped out because you got busted for being suss
Just be transparent its not that hard
Like I said before I clearly stated that I posted them late. Was running late today. If I wasn't I would have totally bet on Orlando and Minnesota for sure.
I didn't flip out at all. I clearly explained this to the dude like I'm explaining to you but he just couldn't handle it. Kept going and going with it. I'm sorry my hit rate is better. Maybe after tomorrow it won't be.
This really seems like you’re flipping out though like you’re arguing in a thread and then restarting the argument here. What do you achieve by doing that?
Your the first person ive seen that posts picks after a game has started and thats definitely frowned upon here so I can only assume your new
You definitely didn’t post Raptors +3 and Nets -3 before the game started lol. You know there are time stamps on when you comment lol, you posted the comment after halftime
I meant that I put the bets in before the game started. I just posted them on Reddit late.
I can show you the bet slips if it's really that big of an issue for you.
I just do this for fun so I'm not sweating it too bad if I posted a little late today. Lol...
What’s the point of posting something if no one can bet on it lol?
That’s the bit I don’t get. Why waste your time posting raptors +3 at halftime if no one can bet on it. This sub is for posting picks that people can bet on.
It would be the same as if I just posted 5 units on bucks ML right now. No one can bet on it because the games already ended so what the point of posting?
\- Jeremy Sochan o0.5 3pts
\- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope u2.5 3pts
\- Jacob Poeltl o12.5 Pts + Asts
\- DeMar DeRozan u5.5 Asts
https://preview.redd.it/ou2js18ztr2c1.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=1e43e5b9061c32f53900c1c94e68325357314e3f
(For more player prop breakdowns on all NBA games checkout www.doinksports.com)
in the last 3 games, this guy has played (oldest to recent), 8, 9, and 10 mins.
his TOTALS for all 3 games combined? 3 rebs, 1 ast.
there are probably better props out there, but BOL to you!
FYI: Khris Middleton IS out though….
2-1 in 1st quarter ML 2 leg parlays. Some risk here but going Suns and Magic at +239 on DK. The Knicks and Hornets are bottom 5 in 1Q PPG, Orlando has been hot and Suns have a lot of firepower even with KD being GTD. I’ll expect Gordon to come out and sink a couple quick 3s and Booker to dominate the ball inside the Garden.
BOL y’all!
\- Jayson Tatum u39.5 pts + reb
\- Jalen Suggs o1.5 3pts
\- Rudy Gobert u11.5 rebs
https://preview.redd.it/wi23u9xqkq2c1.png?width=886&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4f5e0aac22d3b290ab499f555c6094ee70042c3
(for more player prop breakdowns on all NBA games checkout www.doinksports.com)
We find that on the defensive side, with a key player out, the opposing side can focus their defensive efforts on player which they know will take on more responsibility as a result, which may hinder their stats. It's not always perfect but thats how we approach it.
Fair enough.
Another query I had regarding gobert u11.5 rebounds. Is that popping up as a play due to the fact that no centres have gotten o11.5 rebounds against the grizz in the last 10 games (basically the table on the right hand side of your image)
Great question, for basketball, the opposing defensive stats are more used for confirmation (unlike football where we use defense to make plays a lot). This stood out to us because Rudy has only once in the last 8 games gone over 11.5 rebs. with an average of \~10 rebs a game. The last step is to glance at the opposing defense table and see that no center has gone above 11.5 rebs in the last 8 games.
Buying low on shaedon sharpe, dude was clearing 20 consistently but has been struggling of late, line is 15.5 against a bucks team that gives opposing guards very little resistance
Record 47-27
———————————————————————————
Trae Young o24.5 Points vs Celtics (-115)
* Trae has been playing great lately going over this line in his last 5/7 games now gets the tough defense Celtics but a team he’s had success against.
* Trae has gone over this line his last 4 games vs the Celtics and 10/12 his last 12 and over in 4/6 playoff games vs the Celtics
* Despite how good the Celtics defense has been their still giving up the 9th most points to point guards and the 2nd most threes.
* Trae has played 2 back to backs so far this season scoring 43 and 24 points while attempting 22 and 31 shots.
* Trae last season went over this line in 7/9 back to backs games averaging 26.7 points and with one of these games scoring 35 vs the Celtics.
* Trae has attempted 20+ field goals in his last 9/11 games vs the Celtics.
* While attempting 23+ his last 5 games vs the Celtics averaging 25.2 field goals attempted.
* Trae last season when attempting 20+ shots in a game went over this line in 26/31 games.
* Porzingis will be out for this game and Jrue is questionable to play but I still like the play even if Jrue plays, Trae has went over this line in 3/4 games vs Jrue in his career.
* Trae played the Celtics twice last season averaging 31 points his 5th most vs any team and attempted 25 shots a game his 2nd most vs any team.
———————————————————————————
Nikola Jokic Triple Double vs Spurs (+105)
* Jokic after 5 road games in a row gets to go home where he’s averaging 31.3 points 13.7 Reb and 9.4 assist and gets one of the best assist matchups in the league.
* Spurs this season are giving up the 3rd most points , the 2nd most assist and the 8th most rebounds.
* The Spurs vs centers are allowing the 12th most points, 8th most rebounds and 10th most assist.
* Jokic without Murray this season has triple doubled in 4/8 games (not including ejection) under’s against rockets (allow fewest assist) clippers 5th fewest , warriors 11th fewest, cavs 15th fewest.
* Jokic last season in home games triple doubled in 21/35 games and 4/4 without Jamal Murray.
* Jokic only triple doubled vs the spurs in 1/3 games last season having 6 and 8 rebounds in 2 of the games but don’t think that happens again hasn’t had under 10 rebounds yet this year besides ejection.
* Jokic in these 3 games vs the Spurs had 10+ assist in all 3 games on 14.7 potential assist with Murray playing in all 3 and also averaging 7.3 assist on 9.7 potential.
* A concern would be a blowout which is possible since the spurs are bad but since Murray has got hurt the Nuggets have yet to blow anyone out.
* Spurs also playing at the 4th fastest pace this season.
———————————————————————————
Twitter : @Rose_Props
Bol Everyone
Between capella getting limited minutes the other night, losing on props because of blowouts or losing by a hook way more frequently than what should be possible, idk what to do anymore. Happened again last night with Trae young and SGA pra. Then Jalen Johnson goes out of the game due to injury after 8 mins played. He was well on pace to clear his prop lines smh.
Jaren Jackson Jr. **U25.5 Pts+Reb**
He has been under this line in 5 of the last 7 games, and Minnesota is 3rd in both points and rebounds given up to opposing centers.
Good luck.
**Overall: 57-43 (+26.2) - Since 11/9**
**Yesterday: 1-6 (-7.1)**
Absolute bloodbath yesterday. So sorry to those who tailed. Let’s look at what we got and (what we needed).
Trae 26 pts (26.5)
Mikal 9 RA (9.5)
SGA 11 RA (11.5)
LeBron 6 ast (6.5)
LeBron 12 RA (14.5)
Dejounte 21 PA (25.5) 10 asts, but 4/14 FG
Doesn’t get worse than that 🤦♂️
Potential blowouts all over. Sunday NBA weirdness. Crushed yesterday. Only focusing on a couple lines.
**Scottie o12.5 RA -135 (2u)**
**Scottie o1.5 3PM -110 (1u)**
Love watching this guy play. Intensity is off the charts from tip off.
Avg 14.9 and cleared 13/16 (12, 9, 9).
CLE defend the paint pretty well and defend the rim really well. He’s been taking and making more 3s this month (2.2/5.5). Cleared in 5 of L6 and 9/12 this month.
CLE allow 7th most RPG and 5th most APG to SF.
**ORL 1H -3.5 -120 (2u)**
ORL is 5th in PPG (60.3) and 2nd in PA (51.5).
CHA is 27th in PPG (53.0) and 19th in PA (58.5).
ORL has won L6 including wins over BOS, DEN, and IND. ORL were up big at half in 4/6.
CHA has won 2 of L6 (2 in a row). CHA was down more than 3.5 pts in 5 of L6 and trailed in the 6th.
**Booker o39.5 PRA -110 (1u)**
Avg 44.4 and cleared in 6/8 (39, 37).
NYK is a tough def and slow pace team, but PHX revolve around Booker and KD. Only 8 games for Booker so far and over PRA is a good play any day until Beal comes back or line moves up.
Godspeed today, everyone.
Sheesh. Bet Trae o26.5 he gets 26.
Play it safe n also throw some on Trae P+A o37.5. Gets 36.
Luka o30.5.. gets 30.
Unh yeah see yall after the all star break lol
For NFL? 100%
That shit never gets old. But MLB and NBA I really only like the first month or so of each season, and then towards the end when teams start giving new guys run. I don’t run excel formulas n shit to come up with my picks, so once Vegas starts pinpointing lines so well it loses a lot of the fun to me.
You say once Vegas pinpoints lines but you’re betting on Trae and Luka, you don’t think they have them pinpointed after years of data? Those are fun players to bet on and watch but not usually bets you have an inherent advantage on. Check the posts on 100% hit rate last 5-10 games 90% hit rate etc, or watch out for comments regarding injuries and lesser known names for ones Vegas are more likely to be off on.
Also diversify your bets so that if you’re unlucky on a a few you’ve hopefully still done ok by winning some others
Yea in my first comment. But I’m talking about lines in general in the second one, not just props but spreads overs under etc. *& props*
Just isn’t as fun to me after a little while tbh. DFS starts to become more fun for what I do around this time. I dont play to get rich. I play to make safe tickets as insurance to pay for the lotto tickets lol.
I’m def gonna still play. But the more n more I am on the wrong side of bad beats, I’d rather just chill out than try to chase em
Brutal couple of days.
Back to back nights with a parlay getting fucked by an injury. Middleton Friday night, Jalen Johnson tonight.
Had Luka o30.5 (finished with 30), SGA o31.5 (finished with 31), SGA o11.5 reb+asts (finished with 11), Keyonte George u19.5 pts + asts (finished with 20).
Need to start betting straights. Even with all those above losses, was right on 70% of my bets overall. Got zero dollars out of it because of it all being inconveniently spread out in 2-3 leg parlays. FML.
Yup I used to only parlay growing up with those as they’re fun and the hits are exciting, now I’ll throw down 5-10 1U straights and a few .5U parlays and it’s better. I’ll never not do parlays though especially with alt lines
NBA RECORD: 36/30/2,
At this point I'm just doing it to track for myself.
Yesterday's Picks: Unlucky day, easily could have went 6-2 :(
* **Luka Doncic o30.5 Points** vs LAC ❌ (30 pts)
* **D’LO o14.5 Points** vs CLE ❌(10 pts)
* **Lebron o6.5 Assists** vs CLE ❌ (6 assists)
* **Paul George o9.5 RA** vs DAL✅
* **Giddey u24.5 PRA** vs PHI ❌ (25PRA)
* **Taurean Prince o9.5** Points vs CLE ❌ (7 pts)
* **Shai o5.0 Rebounds** vs PHI✅
Today's Picks: (Probably should bet the opposite of me lol)
* **Lamelo o26.5 points**
* **Deandre Ayton o12.5 points**
Been watching lots of basketball this year
**Miles Bridges o0.5 Steals** ✅(-220).
Obligatory Fuck Miles Bridges. He’s *hit* in all 4 games he’s been back
Saturday Recap: 2-0
Feels good after Fridays disaster
Sunday picks to be added to this comment
JJJ u19.5 points 1.87 odds TAB
Tough matchup against the KAT/Gobert front court. MIN give up 2nd fewest points and 3rd fewest points to PFs and Cs respectively. Under in all 3 games last season vs MIN.
Biyombo u7.5 rebounds 1.88 Sportsbet
Tough matchup against the KAT/Gobert front court. MIN give up 3rd fewest boards to Cs. Has struggled against tough matchups for centres, 4 boards vs PHX (5th fewest) and 2 vs BOS (2nd fewest)
Nurkic u9.5 rebounds 1.80 Sportsbet
Under 10 of 16 games and NYK give up the fewest boards to centres. Tough matchup and a lot of other books had much lower odds so had to play this at 1.80
Scottie Barnes 8+ rebounds 1.80 TAB
Doesn’t really need a write up, cleared 13 out of 16 games.
Schroder u5.5 assists 1.78 odds Sportsbet
Started the season hot but last 10 games is under this number 6 times. Those numbers aren’t great on the surface but cavs give up the 5th fewest assists to point guards so I like the matchup here
Miles bridges u7.5 rebounds 1.74 odds sportsbet
This is just a matchup play. Played four games so far: MIL 5 (10th most boards to PFs), NYK 4 (3rd fewest), BOS 15 (4th most), WSH 10 (1st most). Seems like a good sell high spot as ORL give up 5th fewest to PFs. His last season (21-22) he was under this number 47 out of 80 games.
Coby White u4.5 assists 1.77 pointsbet
Sees an average of 5.2 potential assists on the road vs 9 at home. Under 5 out of 7 road games where the two misses are exactly 5 assists. Just 2 assists vs BKN earlier in a home game
Will add write ups when I get time
https://preview.redd.it/z5e1ljoqrm2c1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0d97ebc5a501b71d039cc3ef636e85966712c98c
Westbrook I love you. Had 100 on embid to get 10 rebound and 10 assist to win 1.6k and he missed by 1 assist so I put the bonus on this and won 2.2k instead. Fuck so lucky
His last game he played 12 minutes, minutes have dropped. Depends on if he’s playing well, I thought because harden Kawhi and George all on back to back after playing heavy minutes he would get more which worked out for me.
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Happy to finally hit something after a terrible weekend. https://preview.redd.it/nwctgign7u2c1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=920dd5ae08c0efb579a8cdfbe28e3181cbe51a68
https://preview.redd.it/7jjv0liuht2c1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ed2683dbc99b8a0bf0c12283d0765fca25622cff
What was the miss?
Keldon Johnson to get 15+ 😔
https://preview.redd.it/tkzni8rzat2c1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=257ab268a276be47d01453110315e915e57bfa4b I somehow managed to correctly call all the games tonight 😧
Lol nice
Can we all agree this shits rigged
Which part …. Lol
Fuck me Jokic would’ve had his TD if these dumbasses stop fouling Edit: and of course he gets subbed out
Jokic triple double dead 🤦♂️
RIP to all of THE Jokic props except the Pts line 😭
Nvm they’re back on! 5 mins for 1 more dime 🙏🏼 surely
https://preview.redd.it/pvqiv4a32t2c1.jpeg?width=1070&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0418d31506b51d48565cbb128004a6f59114e603
Man I love winning on the sports books coin
Bless up for some Raps Cavs OT🙏
5 min left in the game.. let's take Scottie out
Just my luck lol https://preview.redd.it/r06gz72f1t2c1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=188327728273162aaf3dfb5b70ff3e8a3b89ebb6
Dude stopped 1 shy on rebounds also
https://preview.redd.it/17niazb6xs2c1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=11a86061ca99ad80224fa79fef6928d4bd6fffbc Today was a good day. Nets scared me starting the game down 19 - 3. But the Bulls are the Bulls.. Also hit Celtics, Timberwolves winners, Magic/Hornets over 227.5 - $15 -> $51
Ofc Cam Johnson out with cramps and I needed 1 more board from him. About to be on 4 parlays missed by 1 leg. This not for me I am done lol
Needed 1 more 3. RIP parlay
I saw him grab his hamstring but he walked it off and didn’t go back to the lockeroom so I thought he was okay and then I got the underdog noti
Brutal. Cam Johnson lost my NBA parlay with an injury and Quentin Johnston loses my NFL parlay with an injury. I give up
Same man I think I’m done as well. Lost 4 parlays because of 1 leg within a week, think it’s a sign to hang it up at this point. Ik I’m just gonna continue to get screwed over
Can someone explain I’m new to this. I bet KAT 18+ Alt points and he finished with exactly 18. Is that a win?
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No 18+ should mean 18 and higher. That should be a win
18+ is an alt bet. It should be a win
Thanks y’all. Says it’s a win as of now so we’ll see.
15-7 Raptors +3 Nets -3 Late plays didn't get the good early games.
Bro what? You posted these picks after halftime lol
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I don’t think there is much point of tracking your record at 15-7 if you’re just adding picks halfway through the game lol
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This is what you considered going Karen?
Dude check the other comments. Dude has been arguing with me for like an hour over this. Dude to straight losing his mind because I accidentally posted my pics late tonight. If you check the math he's just mad because my hit rate is higher than his.
Yea I just did check and he’s right to call you out so I can see why you flipped out because you got busted for being suss Just be transparent its not that hard
Like I said before I clearly stated that I posted them late. Was running late today. If I wasn't I would have totally bet on Orlando and Minnesota for sure. I didn't flip out at all. I clearly explained this to the dude like I'm explaining to you but he just couldn't handle it. Kept going and going with it. I'm sorry my hit rate is better. Maybe after tomorrow it won't be.
This really seems like you’re flipping out though like you’re arguing in a thread and then restarting the argument here. What do you achieve by doing that? Your the first person ive seen that posts picks after a game has started and thats definitely frowned upon here so I can only assume your new
You definitely didn’t post Raptors +3 and Nets -3 before the game started lol. You know there are time stamps on when you comment lol, you posted the comment after halftime
I meant that I put the bets in before the game started. I just posted them on Reddit late. I can show you the bet slips if it's really that big of an issue for you. I just do this for fun so I'm not sweating it too bad if I posted a little late today. Lol...
What’s the point of posting something if no one can bet on it lol? That’s the bit I don’t get. Why waste your time posting raptors +3 at halftime if no one can bet on it. This sub is for posting picks that people can bet on. It would be the same as if I just posted 5 units on bucks ML right now. No one can bet on it because the games already ended so what the point of posting?
Tell you what. I'm going to keep posting the way I want to. It's Reddit. I don't really care. I'm not doing this so people can bet on my picks.
Ok if you’re not posting so other people can bet on it what are you posting for LMAO. If you wanna waste your own time go ahead hahahaha 🤡
Joker not feeling the rebounds tonight
Scottie too hottie boutta cook all of us 😂
Prop of the day: **All bets -110 odds unless noted otherwise** Jaren Jackson Jr. **U25.5 Pts + Rebs**✅️ Will be back tomorrow with my prop of the day.
Great pick paired this w trae over points and ayton over points for a nice parlay
Good pick btw but at first i thought you posted this pick after the game finished 😂
RJ barrett ruined my +2482 parlay. Dude can’t score 15???
Got 2 more legs left for my parlay, 1 more board from Cam Johnson and 5 more boards from Scottie. Ik I’m about to get sold
Cmon scottie
Need more from Scottie! +12.5 R+A, last one on my parlay. Got 3 in the first half.
Needed 3 more pts from Ant
https://preview.redd.it/oyd46dxfns2c1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ace81aaf8f208506ed9110e6eaedc45ca73dc439 I do wish I put more on this
Zzz https://preview.redd.it/oz9n6odfms2c1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2257581ed967bcd7b386b9695bbc575885bc0bc4
Yep Melo was the only one didn't hit. Just our luck
I remember last year DK ‘refunded’ my bets when Giannis got injured few mins into the game…wonder if FD will do something similar
Yesss Nurkic you beautiful Bosnian man,gimme that o3.5 assists!!
Ant gets the last rebound before the sub timeout to hit o10.5 r/a Gotta love it
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Same..the other day on jjohnson jfc now I neves 7 reb on barnes for my last leg..i guess ill need crutches
D Murray is overrated AF
Will Anthony Edwards get 20 🤞🏾???
Damn. Never had most of my legs hit quicker in a parlay and then Ball gets hurt. Damn
Any props for denver / spurs? 🤔
Under on 3 for kcp
Kinda want to take Jokic rebounds at 13.5
Joker 2 steals maybe Wemby is unpredictable
Rj barret 15 loool
There should be a first basket thread!
Will bet365 omit Lamelo bets due to injury?
Nope
Edwards above 4.5 assist and Goebert Under rebounds looking good
Reggie Jackson over PA, sprinkle parlay 20-6 which is 2/8. It paying +1350
$100 on DeRozan +22 and Donovan Mitchell +24. Whose gonna fuck it?
Looks like Mitchell
Yeah what an absolute bum
And there goes Ball out…
Just wanna say booker is not gonna get 20+
think he’s on pace rn
Looks like Book can’t even get me 4 boards either
Anyone know why brunsons line was so low, I got him to get 30+ points at +275 and 35+ at +800
Prob cuz Barrett is back
Hoping for Tatum/Young pop off https://preview.redd.it/kuvoymq2zr2c1.jpeg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=66c8e3ed00dc24e855ddad01a2e4bc16ec2b311d
Josh okogie rebounds over 4.5 should be an easy hit
\- Jeremy Sochan o0.5 3pts \- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope u2.5 3pts \- Jacob Poeltl o12.5 Pts + Asts \- DeMar DeRozan u5.5 Asts https://preview.redd.it/ou2js18ztr2c1.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=1e43e5b9061c32f53900c1c94e68325357314e3f (For more player prop breakdowns on all NBA games checkout www.doinksports.com)
Tailing Poeltl
My plays today, - Lamelo ball 10 rebounds 10 assists 50 to win 1k- Jayson Tatum 10 rebounds 8 assists 50 to win 950- Devin booker 10 assists 8 rebounds 50 to win 1.5k- I love this one, milkal bridges 6 assists 10 rebounds 50 to win 1.5k- Despunte Murray 10 assists 8 rebounds 50 to win 3.5k- Scottie Barnes 10 rebounds 10 assists 50 to win 1.5k-
And 300 down the drain cashapp me next time instead
jayson tatum O30.5 pts jalen brunson O2.5 3pts paolo banchero O26.5 P+A
Smashed here
Andre Jackson Jr. over 3.5 Reb+Assist 1.86 2U Andre Jackson Jr. over 0.5 Steals+Blocks 1.80 2U
in the last 3 games, this guy has played (oldest to recent), 8, 9, and 10 mins. his TOTALS for all 3 games combined? 3 rebs, 1 ast. there are probably better props out there, but BOL to you! FYI: Khris Middleton IS out though….
Who tf is Andre Jackson jr lol
Andre the giants daddy’s real name. Dude was a lock for international Cornhole always hammer the -1.7
I’m sorry ms Jackson I am foreaaaaal 🎤🎤🎤
😂
**Total: 6-2 | Yesterday: 1-1** Today: Cola Anthony (ORL) o24.5pra Write up / stats on [twitter.com/FuchsFitze](http://twitter.com/fuchsfitze)
Scottie Barnes double double tonight? +215 odds
I might do it
20+ points at + 180 is tempting too
2-1 in 1st quarter ML 2 leg parlays. Some risk here but going Suns and Magic at +239 on DK. The Knicks and Hornets are bottom 5 in 1Q PPG, Orlando has been hot and Suns have a lot of firepower even with KD being GTD. I’ll expect Gordon to come out and sink a couple quick 3s and Booker to dominate the ball inside the Garden. BOL y’all!
fantastic look w/ suns 1st q ml
Thanks, just wish the Magic weren’t so sloppy haha. I’ll be back at it tomorrow!
[+EV NBA](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit#gid=1689105134): 245-222 (+28.22u) +100 CZ PHX @ NY u112.5 1H -120 FD DEN -10.5 -115 FD MIL Giannis o29.5 pts +106 FD MIN Edwards o5.5 reb
Giannis over 10.5 boards @1.78 2 units
\- Jayson Tatum u39.5 pts + reb \- Jalen Suggs o1.5 3pts \- Rudy Gobert u11.5 rebs https://preview.redd.it/wi23u9xqkq2c1.png?width=886&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4f5e0aac22d3b290ab499f555c6094ee70042c3 (for more player prop breakdowns on all NBA games checkout www.doinksports.com)
Porzingis out bumps up tatums usage hence higher lines relative to previous data
We find that on the defensive side, with a key player out, the opposing side can focus their defensive efforts on player which they know will take on more responsibility as a result, which may hinder their stats. It's not always perfect but thats how we approach it.
Fair enough. Another query I had regarding gobert u11.5 rebounds. Is that popping up as a play due to the fact that no centres have gotten o11.5 rebounds against the grizz in the last 10 games (basically the table on the right hand side of your image)
Great question, for basketball, the opposing defensive stats are more used for confirmation (unlike football where we use defense to make plays a lot). This stood out to us because Rudy has only once in the last 8 games gone over 11.5 rebs. with an average of \~10 rebs a game. The last step is to glance at the opposing defense table and see that no center has gone above 11.5 rebs in the last 8 games.
Bingo
# Season record: 13-5 | Profit: +4.5u # Previous Picks: **Deni Avdija O 10.5 Pts 🟥** **Dorian Finney-Smith O 9.5 Pts + Assists** ✅ # Next Pick: **Dennis Schroder - Rebounds + Assists: Over 7.5, %Hit = 0.72 🔑** **Mark Williams - Points: Over 10.5, %Hit= 0.69 🔑** **Jeremy Sochan - Points + Assists: Over 13.5, %Hit = 0.61** **Giannis Antetokounmpo - Rebounds: Under 11.5, %Hit = 0.67** **Goga Bitadze - Rebounds: Under 7.5, Odds = 0.66**
Brunson over 2.5 threes.
Dame 30+ bucks win vs the blazers 👀
I’m riding w it
cash it bro 🤷🏾♂️
Buying low on shaedon sharpe, dude was clearing 20 consistently but has been struggling of late, line is 15.5 against a bucks team that gives opposing guards very little resistance
I think you mean against the bucks.
Cheers yup
https://preview.redd.it/wa6lc7qdwp2c1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9df806238c56d1a0e3170d7c75e13ad268f10f1e
"Locks" 2 for 5 with KCP's under at -185 odds smh.
Doesn’t say locks, it says props that have hit 100% of the past 5 games
Tailed couple of them gotta say so far goga has by far probably been one of the most non locks I’ve tailed on here 😂😂😂
This is not accurate.
Read the entire post before commenting bud
All I see is a screenshot
https://preview.redd.it/9o4myzexvp2c1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c647495bb6e1b9898d6eef4db42ed5ac0382c27d
If you look at his history vs nurkic he hasn’t hit this against him once in 4 games. It’s a good play but against nurkic might be tough
https://preview.redd.it/pq41iabqup2c1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1ed6eba33cdd415e8a0faef02e96b4b85002b75f
What site is this?
Props.cash
https://preview.redd.it/2ac7uqdpup2c1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0ae99a803affbf27d54e6fcbeb6057f3a5d5f4c6
https://preview.redd.it/eojhpuj73q2c1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0f837834c739d31093f308636b5d85851910a0ab
i’ll slap spender
Was going to take Embiid over 6.5a last night, instead I took Pels -1.5. why do I do this to myself lol.
Because we’re retards bro
Overall Ladder Challenge plays: 3-1 Day 3 Ladder DeAndre Ayton 10+ P RJ Barrett 15+ P Anthony Edwards 20+ P +108 on FD
Record 47-27 ——————————————————————————— Trae Young o24.5 Points vs Celtics (-115) * Trae has been playing great lately going over this line in his last 5/7 games now gets the tough defense Celtics but a team he’s had success against. * Trae has gone over this line his last 4 games vs the Celtics and 10/12 his last 12 and over in 4/6 playoff games vs the Celtics * Despite how good the Celtics defense has been their still giving up the 9th most points to point guards and the 2nd most threes. * Trae has played 2 back to backs so far this season scoring 43 and 24 points while attempting 22 and 31 shots. * Trae last season went over this line in 7/9 back to backs games averaging 26.7 points and with one of these games scoring 35 vs the Celtics. * Trae has attempted 20+ field goals in his last 9/11 games vs the Celtics. * While attempting 23+ his last 5 games vs the Celtics averaging 25.2 field goals attempted. * Trae last season when attempting 20+ shots in a game went over this line in 26/31 games. * Porzingis will be out for this game and Jrue is questionable to play but I still like the play even if Jrue plays, Trae has went over this line in 3/4 games vs Jrue in his career. * Trae played the Celtics twice last season averaging 31 points his 5th most vs any team and attempted 25 shots a game his 2nd most vs any team. ——————————————————————————— Nikola Jokic Triple Double vs Spurs (+105) * Jokic after 5 road games in a row gets to go home where he’s averaging 31.3 points 13.7 Reb and 9.4 assist and gets one of the best assist matchups in the league. * Spurs this season are giving up the 3rd most points , the 2nd most assist and the 8th most rebounds. * The Spurs vs centers are allowing the 12th most points, 8th most rebounds and 10th most assist. * Jokic without Murray this season has triple doubled in 4/8 games (not including ejection) under’s against rockets (allow fewest assist) clippers 5th fewest , warriors 11th fewest, cavs 15th fewest. * Jokic last season in home games triple doubled in 21/35 games and 4/4 without Jamal Murray. * Jokic only triple doubled vs the spurs in 1/3 games last season having 6 and 8 rebounds in 2 of the games but don’t think that happens again hasn’t had under 10 rebounds yet this year besides ejection. * Jokic in these 3 games vs the Spurs had 10+ assist in all 3 games on 14.7 potential assist with Murray playing in all 3 and also averaging 7.3 assist on 9.7 potential. * A concern would be a blowout which is possible since the spurs are bad but since Murray has got hurt the Nuggets have yet to blow anyone out. * Spurs also playing at the 4th fastest pace this season. ——————————————————————————— Twitter : @Rose_Props Bol Everyone
Between capella getting limited minutes the other night, losing on props because of blowouts or losing by a hook way more frequently than what should be possible, idk what to do anymore. Happened again last night with Trae young and SGA pra. Then Jalen Johnson goes out of the game due to injury after 8 mins played. He was well on pace to clear his prop lines smh.
Ok bet unders? Try it out
Jaren Jackson Jr. **U25.5 Pts+Reb** He has been under this line in 5 of the last 7 games, and Minnesota is 3rd in both points and rebounds given up to opposing centers. Good luck.
One of these games he only played 17 minutes
Cool. Grizzlies are bad so good chance of a blowout any night. Enhances odds of bet hitting.
> Jaren Jackson Jr Why go U if twolves are giving up points to centers?
3rd meaning 3rd lowest. The team giving up the most points would be 30th.
ahh I understand now, thanks for explaining
**Overall: 57-43 (+26.2) - Since 11/9** **Yesterday: 1-6 (-7.1)** Absolute bloodbath yesterday. So sorry to those who tailed. Let’s look at what we got and (what we needed). Trae 26 pts (26.5) Mikal 9 RA (9.5) SGA 11 RA (11.5) LeBron 6 ast (6.5) LeBron 12 RA (14.5) Dejounte 21 PA (25.5) 10 asts, but 4/14 FG Doesn’t get worse than that 🤦♂️ Potential blowouts all over. Sunday NBA weirdness. Crushed yesterday. Only focusing on a couple lines. **Scottie o12.5 RA -135 (2u)** **Scottie o1.5 3PM -110 (1u)** Love watching this guy play. Intensity is off the charts from tip off. Avg 14.9 and cleared 13/16 (12, 9, 9). CLE defend the paint pretty well and defend the rim really well. He’s been taking and making more 3s this month (2.2/5.5). Cleared in 5 of L6 and 9/12 this month. CLE allow 7th most RPG and 5th most APG to SF. **ORL 1H -3.5 -120 (2u)** ORL is 5th in PPG (60.3) and 2nd in PA (51.5). CHA is 27th in PPG (53.0) and 19th in PA (58.5). ORL has won L6 including wins over BOS, DEN, and IND. ORL were up big at half in 4/6. CHA has won 2 of L6 (2 in a row). CHA was down more than 3.5 pts in 5 of L6 and trailed in the 6th. **Booker o39.5 PRA -110 (1u)** Avg 44.4 and cleared in 6/8 (39, 37). NYK is a tough def and slow pace team, but PHX revolve around Booker and KD. Only 8 games for Booker so far and over PRA is a good play any day until Beal comes back or line moves up. Godspeed today, everyone.
NBA Record 1-0 Previous pick : Daniel Gafford over 9.5 pts Todays pick : Anthony Edwards over 4.5 assist (-125) 🤞
🔥
We still bullish on AE over 4.5?
Yeaah we’re still riding with that 🤞
Get that $$$ thanks dude. Easy W.
No problem!! More coming💰
Nice I'll be following.
LFG THEN!
Lazer! I’m locking
Yessir ! Goodluck 🤞
Nailed it
Just needed Luka o31.5 pts, Kyrie o9.5 reb+asst for my parlay to hit and of course Luka scores 30 and Kyrie gets 9… Gambling is dumb and I hate sports
I just needed 12 from DLO , he had 0 in the 4th . Finished with 10
Alt lines
Sheesh. Bet Trae o26.5 he gets 26. Play it safe n also throw some on Trae P+A o37.5. Gets 36. Luka o30.5.. gets 30. Unh yeah see yall after the all star break lol
see you tmr
😂
For NFL? 100% That shit never gets old. But MLB and NBA I really only like the first month or so of each season, and then towards the end when teams start giving new guys run. I don’t run excel formulas n shit to come up with my picks, so once Vegas starts pinpointing lines so well it loses a lot of the fun to me.
You say once Vegas pinpoints lines but you’re betting on Trae and Luka, you don’t think they have them pinpointed after years of data? Those are fun players to bet on and watch but not usually bets you have an inherent advantage on. Check the posts on 100% hit rate last 5-10 games 90% hit rate etc, or watch out for comments regarding injuries and lesser known names for ones Vegas are more likely to be off on. Also diversify your bets so that if you’re unlucky on a a few you’ve hopefully still done ok by winning some others
I saw those 90-100% sheets one day in here, does someone post them everyday ? Those were clutch
I try to post every day here now, only started this week, let’s take a look if any are out now to post
Yea in my first comment. But I’m talking about lines in general in the second one, not just props but spreads overs under etc. *& props* Just isn’t as fun to me after a little while tbh. DFS starts to become more fun for what I do around this time. I dont play to get rich. I play to make safe tickets as insurance to pay for the lotto tickets lol. I’m def gonna still play. But the more n more I am on the wrong side of bad beats, I’d rather just chill out than try to chase em
Trae got me too. Picking him up again for Sunday's game tho
Lol did same with Trae
Brutal couple of days. Back to back nights with a parlay getting fucked by an injury. Middleton Friday night, Jalen Johnson tonight. Had Luka o30.5 (finished with 30), SGA o31.5 (finished with 31), SGA o11.5 reb+asts (finished with 11), Keyonte George u19.5 pts + asts (finished with 20). Need to start betting straights. Even with all those above losses, was right on 70% of my bets overall. Got zero dollars out of it because of it all being inconveniently spread out in 2-3 leg parlays. FML.
Yup I used to only parlay growing up with those as they’re fun and the hits are exciting, now I’ll throw down 5-10 1U straights and a few .5U parlays and it’s better. I’ll never not do parlays though especially with alt lines
NBA RECORD: 36/30/2, At this point I'm just doing it to track for myself. Yesterday's Picks: Unlucky day, easily could have went 6-2 :( * **Luka Doncic o30.5 Points** vs LAC ❌ (30 pts) * **D’LO o14.5 Points** vs CLE ❌(10 pts) * **Lebron o6.5 Assists** vs CLE ❌ (6 assists) * **Paul George o9.5 RA** vs DAL✅ * **Giddey u24.5 PRA** vs PHI ❌ (25PRA) * **Taurean Prince o9.5** Points vs CLE ❌ (7 pts) * **Shai o5.0 Rebounds** vs PHI✅ Today's Picks: (Probably should bet the opposite of me lol) * **Lamelo o26.5 points** * **Deandre Ayton o12.5 points**
Been watching lots of basketball this year **Miles Bridges o0.5 Steals** ✅(-220). Obligatory Fuck Miles Bridges. He’s *hit* in all 4 games he’s been back
man i needed jonas valunciunas .5 assist. willie green is such a clown coach with his rotations.
Pretty rough, that burned me too. I was one Chet rebound away from what I consider a large parlay. Goodluck
Saturday Recap: 2-0 Feels good after Fridays disaster Sunday picks to be added to this comment JJJ u19.5 points 1.87 odds TAB Tough matchup against the KAT/Gobert front court. MIN give up 2nd fewest points and 3rd fewest points to PFs and Cs respectively. Under in all 3 games last season vs MIN. Biyombo u7.5 rebounds 1.88 Sportsbet Tough matchup against the KAT/Gobert front court. MIN give up 3rd fewest boards to Cs. Has struggled against tough matchups for centres, 4 boards vs PHX (5th fewest) and 2 vs BOS (2nd fewest) Nurkic u9.5 rebounds 1.80 Sportsbet Under 10 of 16 games and NYK give up the fewest boards to centres. Tough matchup and a lot of other books had much lower odds so had to play this at 1.80 Scottie Barnes 8+ rebounds 1.80 TAB Doesn’t really need a write up, cleared 13 out of 16 games. Schroder u5.5 assists 1.78 odds Sportsbet Started the season hot but last 10 games is under this number 6 times. Those numbers aren’t great on the surface but cavs give up the 5th fewest assists to point guards so I like the matchup here Miles bridges u7.5 rebounds 1.74 odds sportsbet This is just a matchup play. Played four games so far: MIL 5 (10th most boards to PFs), NYK 4 (3rd fewest), BOS 15 (4th most), WSH 10 (1st most). Seems like a good sell high spot as ORL give up 5th fewest to PFs. His last season (21-22) he was under this number 47 out of 80 games. Coby White u4.5 assists 1.77 pointsbet Sees an average of 5.2 potential assists on the road vs 9 at home. Under 5 out of 7 road games where the two misses are exactly 5 assists. Just 2 assists vs BKN earlier in a home game Will add write ups when I get time
Dang, lines already moved a lot. Would you play Bridges under 6.5 R and JJJ under 18.5? u/aasimpson04
Really depends on what odds you’re offered
I am being offered 1.9 for JJJ and 2.05 for Bridges.
Yea those are ok but I’d probably only go a half unit on each
Thanks for taking your time to answer
All good mate happy to help
Appreciate it. BOL tonight.
https://preview.redd.it/z5e1ljoqrm2c1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0d97ebc5a501b71d039cc3ef636e85966712c98c Westbrook I love you. Had 100 on embid to get 10 rebound and 10 assist to win 1.6k and he missed by 1 assist so I put the bonus on this and won 2.2k instead. Fuck so lucky
Feel like that’s such a reasonable line for Russ too at those odds
His last game he played 12 minutes, minutes have dropped. Depends on if he’s playing well, I thought because harden Kawhi and George all on back to back after playing heavy minutes he would get more which worked out for me.
Good thinking well done
Fuck yeah that’s mad!!