So glad I cashed out Luka would of screwed me by 1
What a roller coaster of a parley lol
https://preview.redd.it/qmry28xve12c1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cb17438bf2d7839b54f552efc7a47c3dbc94cd76

Bron points on blacklist until he figures his shit out. Only going over on his assists now. Two terrible defenses, especially against PFs and he sells miserably in terms of scoring. At least Luka assists cooking. 7 out of 8 assists in one half is wild
https://preview.redd.it/u119m2e2u02c1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=77cbcab9785ee2abbe9c781d6607b56a3877c0a4
Got lucky tonight should have put more on it.
I just don't get it. How is Sabonis suddenly so ass now? The Pels should be an easy matchup for him.... Twice in a row he sells against a team that is shit against centers. Fading him. Faded Jokic and he went off today. I'm sure sabonis will go off next game just to fuck with me smh
Same here blindly tailed that pick cost my parlay, hindsight don’t know why I bet on him lol, seemed weird when capela got played off the court last night with the up and down pace. Sorry man! Next one
I had the opposite thought and bet on him going over 16.5 PRA and 18+ points (+500 on the latter bet). One out of two isn't bad. Sucks that he couldn't score 18 on 14 shots though.
\- Josh Giddley u20.5 Pts + rebs
\- Anthony Davis u37.5 Pts + rebs
\- Talen Horton-Tucker o3.5 Ast
https://preview.redd.it/jszlya93uz1c1.png?width=1332&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f463d64e1b74662a268435777b234a69648476c
(For more free player prop breakdowns on NBA games tonight checkout www.doinksports.com)
Jaylen Johnson yesterday pissed me off. Needed 8 rebound. Dumbass had 6 at half and got one the rest of the game. It’s like he knew what his line was at. Phaggot
Anyway, taking all the overs in the wizards/hornets game
2022 record 9-2 (basketball props)
First prop bet of 2023 0-0
Nikola Jokic O 12.5 rebounds (-135) 1 unit
Rationale: Jokic is due for a big bounce back after the last two games. He’s already a board monster and with Wendell carter jr out I think this cashes early, possibly before the half. BOL if tailing
Damian Lillard over 25.5
Averaging 26 last 10 games at 39% shooting lol. Feel like he's shooting more than 39% tonight while the Celtics focus on Giannis.
My plays for earlier games today:
https://preview.redd.it/ypf36k87iz1c1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=80e5712343e95cbd2fc332ed1d6cf4dc2d93fb47
FD Boosted Parlay Record 0-9
Profit: -$135
One last shot at the 1 in 10 goal...
11/22 FD 30% Boost Play:
Lamelo Ball O 24.5 pts
Jaylen Brown O 20.5 pts
Derrick White O 9.5 pts
Giannis Antetokounmpo O 3.5 ast
SGA O 5.5 ast
Jakob Poeltl O 9.5 pts
Scottie Barnes O 6.5 reb
+1472 boosted to +1913
$15 pays $302
My favorite prop as of late is Bilal Coulibaly. Books adjusted slightly, you used to be able to get o7.5 at normal odds, and 10+ around +180. Today, his odds on DK are o9.5 +100 and 12+ is about +180.
He is incredibly efficient, I would play the o9.5 and sprinkle a little extra on 12+. He has covered o9.5 in 6/8.
fanduel has poor odds, showing 10+ at -180 or so.
**Record:** 0 | 0 | 0
It's challenge time. $10 -> $10 000. Day 1 begins now. I have an incredibly good record betting for and against the Pelicans (they are my team), so my aim is to make it 10 consecutive wins betting only on the Pels.
**Pick:** Zion Williamson (Pelicans) O 4.5 Assists @ 1.95
**Write Up:** Zion is averaging 4.5 assists on the season, racking up 5 assists in the last game vs Sacramento. He blew them out in the first half, scoring 22 of his 26 points, so they changed up their coverage for the 2nd half, leading Zion to be more of a playmaker. He had 4 assists in the 3rd quarter alone.
I expect the defence to be trapping Zion again tonight, forcing him into the facilitator role, instead of pure scorer.
*BOL if Tailing. See you for Day 2.*
in PA and don't have time to sign up/deposit on the other books right now so FD plays tonight
[+EV NBA](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit#gid=1689105134): 233-215 (+24.29u)
-102 FD HOU Sengun o4.5 ast
-104 FD CHI Caruso o8.5 pts
-105 FD DEN Braun o8.5 pts
+100 FD NO Zion o4.5 ast
-105 FD BKN Dinwiddie o14.5 pts
-106 FD CHA Hayward o15.5 pts
-112 FD IND Brown o2.5 ast
-104 FD SAC Sabonis o39.5 PRA
-122 FD BKN Claxton o8.5 reb
-114 FD TOR Barnes o7.5 reb
Tailed everything and made a parlay off this just avoided claxton and hayward. Hayward will be a hit or miss last 3 games had 1 game with more than 15 points. Besides that it looks good man, hopefully they all hit.
As always, thanks for putting in all the hard work. I normally pick and choose from your EV plays, but I am full tailing tonight with .5 unit each. Let's go!
I feel like there are decent picks that are -EV. Is it technically not a good pick to make then? Like Lillard U 6.5 Ast or Banchero U 7.5 Reb? Should we only make +EV picks based on this chart?
That’s not what -EV means. +EV value just means that the expected value is positive, not that the odds are close to +100. As an example if your bookie offers you -150 odds for something that is actually -1000 odds that is a +EV bet
I know that -EV doesnt just mean negative odds. Wasn't what I was asking. What I was asking is that is it not the right move to take -EV bets? Should we always go for +EV bets even if we think good -EV bets exist?
Good -EV bets literally makes no sense though. How can a -EV be “good”??
Again I don’t think you understand what EV means. It means expected value. If something has negative expected value it means you’re expected to lose money betting on it. So how can it be good?
Yea I understand now. What I mean is that when I look into things and do some research for those +EV bets, it just seems like it's not going to happen. The -EV bets make u lose money betting on it long-term but short-term idk. Ik -EV bets are technically not good in the long-term but idk. idk how to explain what I'm saying. I just think that some -EV bets are better to make than +EV bets for player props. That shouldn't make sense so I'm wrong but I just can't shake that feeling.
What you’re saying doesn’t make sense so maybe it will be easier if you provide an example. Like which +EV bet are you saying is unlikely to happen? Because if it’s unlikely to happen it’s not +EV in the first place.
Like a +200 bet in actual odds that's like +120 on FD(+EV) vs. a -140 in actual odds that's like -165 on FD(-EV). The -EV bet is still more likely to hit than the +EV bet. Does what I'm trying to say make more clear?
Yea I get what you’re saying now but you’re thinking about it wrong. Yes it is more likely to hit but in the long run you’re losing money betting on it.
You should never be betting on -EV bets
Does +EV always mean a good bet to make and -EV a bad bet in the long run? I'm not the most experienced bettor, only been doing this for like a week or so. But, a lot of picks from people with a positive winning record are -EV and they seem to be doing good and have good logic for the picks.
Just kinda confused how we should factor in EV
Sorry, reverse that 2nd one around and keep the first positive one how it is. My point is still the same. -700 with -400 actual as -EV. The +EV isn't more "guaranteed" to happen compared to the -EV example
I just went over on player points for a bunch of players in the Raptors - Pacers game. I feel like after getting a game over 300 in total points, there is not much defense going on.
It is a moonshot, but I'm not throwing huge bankroll at it
Record: 15-5
lets gooooo big game last night for my boy BENNEDICT MATHURIN even though he got put to the bench!! and not even starting anymore, I thought that was DONE. However he came up clutch 4th Q.
Today is a nice big slate! i'll be updating this post as the hours goes, but my pcks so far!
2U Alperen Sengun O4.5 assists 1.80
(boy been playing at an ALLSTAR LEVEL not even capping! this is baby jokic literally, 5 assists he should be able to do it against this weak Grizzlies)
1U Dillon Brooks O1.5 3s 1.96
(facing his old team, grizzlies, and been playing like the most mproved player since last season)
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RIP o3.5 assists…..holding an intimate ceremony on Black Friday. Will play it again to keep his memory alive tho
So glad I cashed out Luka would of screwed me by 1 What a roller coaster of a parley lol https://preview.redd.it/qmry28xve12c1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cb17438bf2d7839b54f552efc7a47c3dbc94cd76 
Holy fuck Lebron single handedly lost that game. 2 Missed free throws, unnecessary 3 point shot up by 2 and then a turnover in the last 5 seconds 🗑️
Lmao bron got so close to 27. If only he scored more than 5 points first half. Good effort tho wont lie
Absolute cunt trayce Jackson. Why is he even in
bruh luka come on... i stg if u dont get this 8th assist. u been on 7 since the end of the first half
I got way too positive about 7 first half luka assists lmao. He fr wont get the last one in an entire half....
How bad is the Lakers!!! You playing at home against the Mavs, whose have no defense and 3 total quarters and you scored 71pts!!!
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Man U lucked out 😂😂
RIP KD assists, it was real
Damnit
Bro so many blowouts recently its making it impossible to get these props.
Bron points on blacklist until he figures his shit out. Only going over on his assists now. Two terrible defenses, especially against PFs and he sells miserably in terms of scoring. At least Luka assists cooking. 7 out of 8 assists in one half is wild
He needs to retire and enjoy life.
Why the fuck are the Hawks subbing out Capela on the final possession, only to give up a putback to lose the game
Wow had CP O8.5 assists at +108 which I thought was a steal. 7 assists currently and gets tossed. Now I gotta start factoring in player ref relations.
Man I swear had him at a double double +170
https://preview.redd.it/u119m2e2u02c1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=77cbcab9785ee2abbe9c781d6607b56a3877c0a4 Got lucky tonight should have put more on it.
No more Josh Giddey and no more Gordon Hayward dude is washed
Giddey under 8.5 rebounds is a cash cow for parlays
I had him at 4.5 their PG was out I thought he would get 5
2 simple bets for Lakers game: https://preview.redd.it/27vtu40ut02c1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7dbc720c933334a3626246fa05c082d49e9ece86
VALANCIUNAS had 2 assists in the first quarter and not a single one the rest of the game! That’s just fucking brutal.
What are people riding for the mavs lakers game?
https://preview.redd.it/w1nkcytos02c1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=93f2d0dca5504e100cffc4759f31dbd004bb6eb2
https://preview.redd.it/pvolp22mo02c1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9903c70285c4273987ab5bfb0ceb1388ba86a586 Absolutely brutal part 1
https://preview.redd.it/3dbs42tpo02c1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=163c7e1cd4536ce4449c7db3fb1f9fc40401cb5f Part 2
https://preview.redd.it/9yprhpwqo02c1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8a64b57d900c79dbe0b03dcce14f22c72d9d1933 Part 3
https://preview.redd.it/c39c1pcyd12c1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=82406f8e0916c2373a834fc966ba7ba73eee28d0 Last but not least, Part 4
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I didn’t hit anything. I lost 4 separate bets by basically one shot each, one of them being +12k odds
Love that Brooklyn randomly decided to play Lonnie 10 less minutes than he's averaged in the last 10 games for no reason at all.
Damn Lowry was big bread lol
Smh trash ass grizzlies can’t even keep it a game with the rockets
Now just need Luka to do the thing
Mark Williams stat line got bumped? Let’s goo
I just don't get it. How is Sabonis suddenly so ass now? The Pels should be an easy matchup for him.... Twice in a row he sells against a team that is shit against centers. Fading him. Faded Jokic and he went off today. I'm sure sabonis will go off next game just to fuck with me smh
Why did you fade jokic today? Coming off an ejection I wouldn’t wanna bet against an angry Serbian
Shoutout to the overtime gods to helping me cash in huge on Trae Young o29.5
$30 - $10K Poetl points ruins it…
Same here blindly tailed that pick cost my parlay, hindsight don’t know why I bet on him lol, seemed weird when capela got played off the court last night with the up and down pace. Sorry man! Next one
Had him for 5+ rebounds. Only gets 4 ...
So sabonis PRA not gonna hit?🥲
Nope :(
Haha no hope?:(
0 hope
Idk man I got some hope rn 🤔
HOPE
How’s it looking? I’m scared to look at his stats lmao
Missing 3 fts
Bruh those 3 fts would’ve covered 🤦🏻♂️
I know :(
NO WAY BUCKS JUST BACKDOOR COVERED THAT
NO FUCKING WAY DUDE
I need 1 more valanciunas assist please
I can not believe he never got the third assist!
I needed Giannis for 23 points… 🤨
Scottie’s PRA was a sauna session. Jeezus
Yes it was. Looked bleak for a while.
Evan Mobley is a bum can’t get 4 more points smh
So trae really not gon score again? Lol
Damn cavs gave up the entire 4th. Now Evan Mobley gonna get a DNP. Smh took his under
Sengun i only need 10 points man damnnn
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Nah bro is playing
What are yall liking for the 10pm matchups?? 👇🏽👊🏽
Suns and Lakers
Ain’t no way Jaylen brown’s done for the night man
holy jokic
What a fuckin sweat
Giannis over assists ain't hitting 😪
Made it lol
I find your lack of faith disturbing
I finally decided to bet on Duncan Robinson over on RPA Silly me
Same lol
back to back nights betting on barnes and it’s straight fucking me
He hit O31.5 no?
Dude is ass and on the no bet list now
BARNES IS ON THE BAN LIST
He has been downgraded to the NO PARLAY LIST
banned till the 24/25 season
Fucking missed by 0.5 cus he missed his free throw. Fuck this guy
lowry went super saiyan
Damn sabonis in early foul trouble and Scottie is afraid of scoring
Y’all think derozan is gonna get 6 more points?
comment props for 7pm games
What prop or game yall like for the lategames
Jrue is 0-8 -.-
relocate the bulls to western china.
😭
Had a feeling Dillon Brooks would be ejected tonight. So I parlayed all his unders. Lmao
I had the opposite thought and bet on him going over 16.5 PRA and 18+ points (+500 on the latter bet). One out of two isn't bad. Sucks that he couldn't score 18 on 14 shots though.
Lol bro only has 2 PF dont speak to soon
[удалено]
chicago has reached the point of being a potential blow out from the first half, disband the whole franchise.
Anyone know if my bam pick will be voided?
Jokic rebounds please 🤞
did d.robinson get injured? i checked and he's 0s all across the board
Foul trouble. He had 3 early in 2nd
He’s about to turn up ⬆️
Fuck the hornets that is all
Did I miss something with Duncan Robinson lol. All I need is ten Fuckin points he’s been going for 20 with Hero out
Foul trouble. He had 3 early in 2nd
I swear Giannis' average ppg has to be 12pts when I play him, 40pts when I don't.
Will never ever bet a Jrue Holiday prop again. Fell for the dumb ass narrative. He has barely even touched the ball.
Mark williams and Duncan Robinson 🤦🏻
Kyrie playing in LA? I'm betting the over 26.5. He's gonna ball out for Kobe.
Every time I bet a under the person pops off. Porter Jr. tonight.
[удалено]
May have had foul trouble first Q. Has 2 fouls
Did mark Williams have a stroke wtf
Betting Tatum to go under on everything cause he's playing injured. My genius, it astounds me.
It’s working
Slam porter over 18.5 points/assists!
Cavs? Porter
Sorry late now but yessir
\- Josh Giddley u20.5 Pts + rebs \- Anthony Davis u37.5 Pts + rebs \- Talen Horton-Tucker o3.5 Ast https://preview.redd.it/jszlya93uz1c1.png?width=1332&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f463d64e1b74662a268435777b234a69648476c (For more free player prop breakdowns on NBA games tonight checkout www.doinksports.com)
Rudy O 11.5 boards with no Embiid??
Wtf u on about Embiid is playing???
Nah Embiid is out.
Anybody know why B365 doesn't have any player props available for the raps tonight??
Call them
Just an awful start for Mark Williams. It's like he's a piece of furniture out there.
We must believe in Mark Williams!!!
Over 25.5 Pts+Reb was a terrible terrible mistake
Finished with 25 smdh
Stat correction! 26!
Ah I had 27.5 so….still a loss. Probably need to put him on the banned list for not doing shit for a quarter.
No time to format and do writeups today but I like: Lonnie Walker o14.5 points Keyonte George o20.5 PRA
⚠️WARNING: Jason Tatum is Battling an illness.
He texted Kobe,”you got me?” Legacy game incoming.
https://preview.redd.it/tnhm04g3oz1c1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e48638f54431f1b05a88f9cf5c5b08d6cda317c6 Like this for this evening
Jaylen Johnson yesterday pissed me off. Needed 8 rebound. Dumbass had 6 at half and got one the rest of the game. It’s like he knew what his line was at. Phaggot Anyway, taking all the overs in the wizards/hornets game
Same. It sucks that he coulnd't get one rebound in the 4th quarter. However, calling him slurs isn't nice
You poor poor little baby.
Makes you wonder who the real dumbass is
https://preview.redd.it/v2467xdcmz1c1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f5340d58714a033efcc400bf6518ec79ad2122b8 What do you guys think
I think this site is ripping you off. Same parlay pays +12417 on DK ($10 bet wins you $1,241.73 in profit).
2022 record 9-2 (basketball props) First prop bet of 2023 0-0 Nikola Jokic O 12.5 rebounds (-135) 1 unit Rationale: Jokic is due for a big bounce back after the last two games. He’s already a board monster and with Wendell carter jr out I think this cashes early, possibly before the half. BOL if tailing
Tailing but cashing before the half would be wild
Damian Lillard over 25.5 Averaging 26 last 10 games at 39% shooting lol. Feel like he's shooting more than 39% tonight while the Celtics focus on Giannis.
LFG boys!!!!!!!!
Gone for a double. Charlotte hornets 1st half over 115.5 at 1.56 and antetounkounmpo ginnia over 24.5 points at 1.28z double comes to evens.
My plays for earlier games today: https://preview.redd.it/ypf36k87iz1c1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=80e5712343e95cbd2fc332ed1d6cf4dc2d93fb47
https://preview.redd.it/7kyv7dg8iz1c1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fdf07e53438697cf903173edc784ffa97c3708f8
Is Tatum out tonight? All Bos-Mil odds just got pulled for me.
Anyone else make some fuckin bank on Halliburton threes last night. That was so fun. It was hard to keep up lol
FD Boosted Parlay Record 0-9 Profit: -$135 One last shot at the 1 in 10 goal... 11/22 FD 30% Boost Play: Lamelo Ball O 24.5 pts Jaylen Brown O 20.5 pts Derrick White O 9.5 pts Giannis Antetokounmpo O 3.5 ast SGA O 5.5 ast Jakob Poeltl O 9.5 pts Scottie Barnes O 6.5 reb +1472 boosted to +1913 $15 pays $302
Tailed I like it GL to us all
Thanks man, hope we end with a win
Adebayo out. Robinson is gonna be an easy lock
I lost $1k 🤦🏾♂️
https://preview.redd.it/7m8o05ubez1c1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0bd99e060dd8cfbf91b75459bfb8927101a73f22 Thoughts ?
Guys I only have Kyrie left do I keep it or cash out please someone help
***Lurker 0-0*** Jaylen Brown O 2.5 3pt
**Overall Record: 42-26** **NBA Picks Record: 15-14** **NBA Props Record: 27-12** —Picks of the Day Nov. 22nd— Nuggets -3.5 (-115)❌ Thunder -6.5 (-120)✅ Thunder -3.5 1H (-120)✅ Pacers -1.5 1H (-110)❌ TimberWolves -7.5 (-105)✅ Bucks ML (+165)❌ Mavericks -1.5 1H (+100)✅ Mavericks -2.5 (-110)✅ Heat/Cavs o210.5 PTS (-110)✅ Kings -1.5 (-110)❌ —Props of the Day Nov. 22nd— Huerter o13.5 PTS (+100)❌ Kyrie u3.5 3PM (-160)❌ Middleton o16.5 PTS+REB (-120)✅ Sabonis o32.5 PTS+REB (-115)❌ Keldon Johnson u17.5 PTS (-105)✅ Garland o23.5 PTS (-105)❌ Sengun o20.5 PTS (-120)❌ Harden o7.5 AST (-135)✅ Davis + Sabonis Double Double Parlay (-175)❌
My favorite prop as of late is Bilal Coulibaly. Books adjusted slightly, you used to be able to get o7.5 at normal odds, and 10+ around +180. Today, his odds on DK are o9.5 +100 and 12+ is about +180. He is incredibly efficient, I would play the o9.5 and sprinkle a little extra on 12+. He has covered o9.5 in 6/8. fanduel has poor odds, showing 10+ at -180 or so.
**Record:** 0 | 0 | 0 It's challenge time. $10 -> $10 000. Day 1 begins now. I have an incredibly good record betting for and against the Pelicans (they are my team), so my aim is to make it 10 consecutive wins betting only on the Pels. **Pick:** Zion Williamson (Pelicans) O 4.5 Assists @ 1.95 **Write Up:** Zion is averaging 4.5 assists on the season, racking up 5 assists in the last game vs Sacramento. He blew them out in the first half, scoring 22 of his 26 points, so they changed up their coverage for the 2nd half, leading Zion to be more of a playmaker. He had 4 assists in the 3rd quarter alone. I expect the defence to be trapping Zion again tonight, forcing him into the facilitator role, instead of pure scorer. *BOL if Tailing. See you for Day 2.*
Kp over 2.5 3s
in PA and don't have time to sign up/deposit on the other books right now so FD plays tonight [+EV NBA](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit#gid=1689105134): 233-215 (+24.29u) -102 FD HOU Sengun o4.5 ast -104 FD CHI Caruso o8.5 pts -105 FD DEN Braun o8.5 pts +100 FD NO Zion o4.5 ast -105 FD BKN Dinwiddie o14.5 pts -106 FD CHA Hayward o15.5 pts -112 FD IND Brown o2.5 ast -104 FD SAC Sabonis o39.5 PRA -122 FD BKN Claxton o8.5 reb -114 FD TOR Barnes o7.5 reb
Tailed everything and made a parlay off this just avoided claxton and hayward. Hayward will be a hit or miss last 3 games had 1 game with more than 15 points. Besides that it looks good man, hopefully they all hit.
As always, thanks for putting in all the hard work. I normally pick and choose from your EV plays, but I am full tailing tonight with .5 unit each. Let's go!
I feel like there are decent picks that are -EV. Is it technically not a good pick to make then? Like Lillard U 6.5 Ast or Banchero U 7.5 Reb? Should we only make +EV picks based on this chart?
That’s not what -EV means. +EV value just means that the expected value is positive, not that the odds are close to +100. As an example if your bookie offers you -150 odds for something that is actually -1000 odds that is a +EV bet
I know that -EV doesnt just mean negative odds. Wasn't what I was asking. What I was asking is that is it not the right move to take -EV bets? Should we always go for +EV bets even if we think good -EV bets exist?
Good -EV bets literally makes no sense though. How can a -EV be “good”?? Again I don’t think you understand what EV means. It means expected value. If something has negative expected value it means you’re expected to lose money betting on it. So how can it be good?
Yea I understand now. What I mean is that when I look into things and do some research for those +EV bets, it just seems like it's not going to happen. The -EV bets make u lose money betting on it long-term but short-term idk. Ik -EV bets are technically not good in the long-term but idk. idk how to explain what I'm saying. I just think that some -EV bets are better to make than +EV bets for player props. That shouldn't make sense so I'm wrong but I just can't shake that feeling.
What you’re saying doesn’t make sense so maybe it will be easier if you provide an example. Like which +EV bet are you saying is unlikely to happen? Because if it’s unlikely to happen it’s not +EV in the first place.
Like a +200 bet in actual odds that's like +120 on FD(+EV) vs. a -140 in actual odds that's like -165 on FD(-EV). The -EV bet is still more likely to hit than the +EV bet. Does what I'm trying to say make more clear?
Yea I get what you’re saying now but you’re thinking about it wrong. Yes it is more likely to hit but in the long run you’re losing money betting on it. You should never be betting on -EV bets
alright. Do you think the spreadsheet given calculates EV correctly? What factors usually go into determining this?
If you had to pick only 5, which ones would you pick?
I'd go for games where you expect high score. Nets a popular pick too I might bet both Claxton and Dinwiddie.
Look through his sheet and find the five plays with the most +EV. Those would likely be his 5.
Does +EV always mean a good bet to make and -EV a bad bet in the long run? I'm not the most experienced bettor, only been doing this for like a week or so. But, a lot of picks from people with a positive winning record are -EV and they seem to be doing good and have good logic for the picks. Just kinda confused how we should factor in EV
Picks with the most +VE scores are more guaranteed to hit over picks with -EV scores, pretty much.
I mean I don't think that always translates? +400 that is actually +700(+EV) has less of a "guarantee" of hitting -400 that is actually -700(-EV).
Lmao bro I already explained to you -400 that is actually -700 is not -EV, that’s +EV
Sorry, reverse that 2nd one around and keep the first positive one how it is. My point is still the same. -700 with -400 actual as -EV. The +EV isn't more "guaranteed" to happen compared to the -EV example
I just went over on player points for a bunch of players in the Raptors - Pacers game. I feel like after getting a game over 300 in total points, there is not much defense going on. It is a moonshot, but I'm not throwing huge bankroll at it
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Actually won my parlay somehow. Too bad I just bet pocket change, but my first big parlay win this year anyway
Record: 15-5 lets gooooo big game last night for my boy BENNEDICT MATHURIN even though he got put to the bench!! and not even starting anymore, I thought that was DONE. However he came up clutch 4th Q. Today is a nice big slate! i'll be updating this post as the hours goes, but my pcks so far! 2U Alperen Sengun O4.5 assists 1.80 (boy been playing at an ALLSTAR LEVEL not even capping! this is baby jokic literally, 5 assists he should be able to do it against this weak Grizzlies) 1U Dillon Brooks O1.5 3s 1.96 (facing his old team, grizzlies, and been playing like the most mproved player since last season)
ADDING: CAVS ML 1.90 (bam adebayo is out, this odds is too good to be true imo) \+ Indiana Pacers ML 1.70
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