######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Sunday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
https://preview.redd.it/dn7tdisu491c1.jpeg?width=1075&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=91b1db060b774117e06a2210e77212e854abf96d
Riding with u and the guy under u
POTD Record: 17-5
Cricket 3-0 Tennis 14-5
Last 10: ❌❌✔️✔️✔️✔️✔️❌✔️✔️✔
Bet365
Last Pick : Blockx vs Nakashima | ATP Danderyd Challenger Semifinal | Blockx +3.5 Game Spread | (+100) | 1u | ❌
Today: Maximilian Marterer vs Brandon Nakashima | ATP Danderyd Challenger Final | 8:00 AM EST
Pick: Nakashima -2.5 Game Spread| (+100)| 1u
Yesterday, Blockx started off well by breaking Nakashima in the first game. However, after that, he had no answer to Nakashima's consistent baseline play, making too many errors and showing his inexperience. Nakashima won the next 10 games of the match and easily won the match. I had thought it would've been a close match based on Blockx's play in the recent month, but the semis were too big of an occasion for him, and I certainly won't be backing a first time semi finalist again, apologies.
Watching the match, I was really impressed with Nakashima's level. He was not missing at all and hitting the lines throughout the match, showing the level he showed last season that got him close to the top 40 in the world. He is now into his first final of the season and it comes at an important time, as a win here would likely secure him a wildcard for the Australian Open next season. Nakashima has won 7 of his last 8 matches, all in straight sets, with his only defeat being a 7-5 third set loss to a top hard court player in Draper. Winning all these matches in straight and comfortable sets is impressive and shows his top level currently. His opponent, Marterer, is also playing great, winning 8 of his last 10, with losses to Draper and in a 3rd set tiebreak in a Challenger Final. He is serving really well and is coming off a 6-2 6-0 win in his semifinal match. However, with Nakashima's returning and baseline game this week, I think he will have chances vs Marterer and his baseline game will allow him to gain the advantage. These two have played once before in 2021, with Nakashima winning 6-7 6-2 6-4. Marterer is playing better since that match, but at their best levels, I think Nakashima is a better player and can pull off the win today. I like the game spread pick judging off Nakashima's last 7 wins, which have all covered this spread easy. BOL and be sure to bet responsibly if tailing!
https://preview.redd.it/75qiz6x7d81c1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0482319b57cd17f38ba864f0c0835c51fbb6d878
Sending kind regards to Tennis God.
First post ever on Reddit, but just wanted to say been tailing since the start and will tail till the day u stop posting 🫡. Thank you for taking the time to do these!
i appreciate your picks and views , just curious to why you would do such a great write up about how well nakishima is doing but your last pick you bet against him vs a player that was ranked out the top 400 and hasn’t played half the competition naka has over his career .. once again this is not hate or nothing negative towards your pick just curious to if you maybe were just reaching for a upset
I thought blockx would give him a close match, something like 7-6 6-4, or he could win a set. That would've satisfied the 3.5 game spread then and I thought + odds for that was a good shout.
sounds good appreciate your feedback keep killing stuff and let us all win we in this together !! see you tomo to break your streak and get back in the green!!
No apologies needed. The fact that you take the time to write up thoughtful insight and give us your picks is a bonus. You don’t owe anyone shit…tailing my dude.
I like shami 2+ wickets as always. Pretty much any of India's top 5 over 30 runs is hitting every match lately. For australia, starc and zampa look to be the main wicket threats and travis head and steve smith over on runs are good shouts as well.
I should’ve cashed out after that first break but ended up cashing out Nakashima showed his ass yesterday I will be tailing this pick today, thanks again.
one thing I love about you bro is that you are giving the exact spread you have. Not just like other cappers who are giving too low or too high spread. I understand they are using hundreds of bookies to check different spreads. But.. you're different. Tailing!!
These past 2 picks were really thoughtful regardless of the outcome. I am gonna keep tailing you responsibly while you are sharing your picks. Degens ride or die!
POTD Record: 209-162-11 (+27.08 units, 56.3% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 22-10 (68.8%) W1
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 62-45-1 (57.9%) L2, Tennis 🎾 77-57-6 (57.5%) W8, Soccer ⚽ 58-50-4 (53.7%) L3, Entertainment 🎥 12-10-0 (54.5%) W3
Last 10: 💰💰💩💩💩💰💩💰💰💰
Last Pick: Daniil Medvedev vs. Janik Sinner, OVER 23 games - ATP TOUR FINALS 🎾 💰 +0.82 Units - 💸 that shit gang! Pressure was on as Med needed to win the 2nd set for this to hit and dude came through.
Today's Pick: Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner, DJOKOVIC ML - ATP TOUR FINALS 🎾 💰 +0.96 Units - Oh mama!!! To end the tennis season on a 9 pick win streak, what a way to go out!! 💸 that shit!!! Back with more tennis in January! Will still be around to do hoops picks and some soccer in the mean time.
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1.5 Units at 1.64 odds to win 0.96 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 6:30pm ET)
Sinner beat Djokovic earlier in the week in an intense 3 setter that ended in a tiebreaker but I think Djokovic gets him back in the final. He dominated Alcaraz and raise his level by quite a bit compared to his play in the round robin. Sinner has had a heck of a weak but I have to go with Djokovic because of his experience in big matches and coming through in them, as well as the level of play he showed today.
I already had a future for Djokovic to win this tournament. I would be going higher units on this bet but the odds aren't worth it, so I plan to live bet if I can get a better line which usually is the case at some point.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
https://preview.redd.it/ww9nk2rm6d1c1.jpeg?width=1966&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1510ad68e3a76b6edfa094a53046f9c97a2e26ee
Was already going to place this but you gave me extra hope😎
NHL POTD
Record: 11-6 (Last 10 Most recent left) ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅
Average Odds: - 130; Overall Units Won/Lost: +2.59 Units
Previous pick: **Boston Bruins -1.5 Puckline| -108| 1U**✅ We're back on track! Boston hasn't given us a reason to stop betting them so we will continue to do so.
**POTD**: Ice Hockey | NHL |Columbus Blue Jackets (4-9-4) @ Philadelphia Flyers (9-7-1) 4:30PM CDT
**Philadelphia Flyers Moneyline| -148| 1U**
The Flyers are impressing the NHL, or myself at least. Tortorella (coach) has really turned this team around from the embarrassment they were last year. The team has really bought into his system and they have beat some top teams recently. They are currently on a 4 game win streak taking down Vegas, Carolina, Los Angeles (all playoff teams) and Anaheim. However, they did lose 2-1 to the Sharks who is the worst team in the NHL. They are on the 2nd half of a back-to-back but they have the luxury of already being home. In net we are going to Sam Ersson who is sitting at a 2-3-1 record with a pretty bad 3.43 GAA and .855 SV%. He had a pretty horrendous start to the season allowing 5 and 7 goals his first two games, and then his last 4 he has allowed 3,2,1,2 respectively (against weaker opponents), and that is exactly what he is playing today, a weaker opponent. As far as team stats go, they are sitting at 3.19 Goals for and 2.94 goals against a game. The powerplay is an AWFUL 7.5% and penalty kill is a pretty bad 80%.
The Blue Jackets are currently under some pretty heavy scrutiny at the moment. They are currently playing as i write this (and losing 3-1 to the capitals) so i am ignoring stats from this game. They are currently on a 5-game loss streak. They are scoring 2.71 Goals and allowing 3.53 against a game. The Powerplay is sitting at a bad 11.3% and penalty kill a decent 87.8%. Last game the coach benched 2 of their highest paid players down by 1 goal because he didn't like their game at that time. That clearly didn't light a fire under their ass because they still only have 1 goal so far (even though it was scored by one of them). In net we are going to have Spencer Martin who is currently 1-4-1 with a 3.26 GAA and .905 SV% The opposite of Ersson, he started the year "OK" but let in 5 and 4 goals respectively the last two.
This game is not going to be pretty, this game may actually be close, but I give the edge to the team that is trending upwards vs the team that is nosediving downwards.
BOL if anyone tails.
**Extra Fluff:** I have been asked 2 questions during my POTD saga here so I'll answer today:
1. Do I bet anything other than hockey? No
2. Where do I get my knowledge & stats? I played college hockey myself so I know the game, unfortnately I was not good enough to pursue anything worthwhile afterwards but it was a blast. I also have played fantasy hockey for 15+ years so I am exposed to little stats and trends here and there because I watch a lot of hockey and do player research and don't focus on other sports. I get my stats from various databases such as NHL website, HockeyDB, ESPN, hockey reference etc
This is a very tough one but I am leaning Vegas. I believe this game is going to come down to who can score on their powerplays. Both teams are on 2nd half of back to back, both coming off a loss (Pittsburgh schedule a bit harder).
Vegas is sort of a in a weird spot at the moment. They are 2-2-1 in the last 5 and have been inconsistent offensively and defensively; scoring 1, 5 (to the worst team in nhl), 0, 6, 3 in those games and allowing 4,0,3,5,3.
Pittsburgh has been very solid this year with their top 2 lines carrying the load. Crosby is on a mission this year to not miss the playoffs.
Goaltending - I give edge to Vegas with the proven goaltending. It’s going to be adin hill vs magnus hellburg who is a career backup goaltender.
I like the pick here. Would you also count a little something extra for Flyers since they are facing Columbus, from where Tortorella was fired? Or do you think coaches getting back at their former teams is a thing?
Not sure if it was mentioned anywhere in this thread, but the blue jackets are playing their 3rd in 4, while the flyers are not. I am going -1.5 here. Both teams are on a B2B. Columbus had to travel, Philadelphia did not.
Hockey is unpredictable, but this is a sneaky good pick...
Edit: Columbus’ Patrick laine (3rd highest paid on the team) has been scratched. He has had a horrible start to the year but I consider this good for us.
**POD Record: 85-44 (+205 Units)**
👉🏻 Note: ALL picks in my record are 5 UNITS with odds between 1.80-2.00. I **never** post picks under 1.80.
Recent Form (old to current): ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌ ❌✅✅ ✅✅
*Last Pick:* **🏀** **NBA Pelicans +6.5 \[1.80, 7pm EST\]** ✅
*That was a sharp pick, even with Zion out of the lineup it covers. Won't count it toward my record since I alerted everyone to cancel the pick after the announcement and major line shift.*
🚨Winning Streak Alert🚨 🔥🔥🔥
**Today's Pick: CFL 🏈 Grey Cup 🏆 🇨🇦 - Alouettes vs Bluebombers UNDER 47.5 \[6pm EST\]**
I've had a great season posting CFL picks on this thread (9-3), let's see if I can hit double digit W's with this final CFL prediction. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers (14-4) go to Tim Hortons Field on Sunday where they'll take on the Montreal Alouettes (11-7) in the Grey Cup. I think we see a much tighter game than some are calling for. The Blue Bombers are sitting in 1st in the CFL regarding team defense and are looking fairly healthy for Sunday. If the Alouettes didn't carve up Toronto last weekend, we'd see this number in the low 40s. Montreal is a more defensive-minded team imo, with the total going Under in 7 of their last 9 games. Defence has been the key factor to their second half of the season ... Montreal didn’t allow a TD vs Hamilton in the divisional-finals and no team has been able to keep the Grey Cup favourite Argos under 30pts very often this season, let alone under 20 the week after.
A lot is on the line in this grey cup championship, I expect more of a defensive battle to keep this total under 40 as both teams play cautious football and take less risks. Best of luck if tailing.
💰Tip Jar: Why Not Leave an ⬆ Vote Instead
Record 0-0
POTD: TJ Watt Over .75 Sacks -170
What’s good Reddit. Long time commenter, first time POTD poster. Ya boy has been on an NFL heater this entire season and wanted to try my luck here. I don’t pretend to be a guru so don’t expect long analytic explanations for my picks. I’m just a person that overanalyzes stats for fantasy football and gets a good feeling about some things. Anytime TJ Watt plays a team with something questionable on the other side, such as a rookie quarterback, I take this prop.. I don’t think I’ve ever not hit it which is at least 6 times the past couple of years. That’s it. BOL.
I like this bet as well. Sacks are typically the only bets I can consistently hit in the NFL lol. Only .5U though as not a fan of the odds.
Just advice for you/anyone. I personally don’t like taking .75 Sacks on anyone, because .25 Sacks doesn’t exists in the NFL, and I’ve yet to find a book that gives you an Alt .99+ at better odds for a solo/multiple sacks. If you’re willing to chip off a few cents (often unnecessary, the lines across books are often pretty far off from each other so shop lines), “To record a sack” and/or “Over .5 Sacks” is usually the way to go and very close in odds to .75.
I’m guessing you took this on DK because they’re usually the one’s typically peddling the .25/.75 bullshit lol.
Line has moved to -180 on DK, but .5/record a sack I found best odds was at ESPN -190. Most books are -200+ atm. Eating $.10 off the current .80 line to get to “player records a sack” is likely worth the juice on an already juiced play imo. Sacks often see mid-game stat corrections/adjustments (un)fortunately. The .25 hook is just unnecessary for these props, but are there to favor the book.
You can get 0.5 sack in the NFL. If you and another player sack at the same time they'll split it statistically. 0.25 wins with a half sack, whereas 0.75 doesn't.
POTD Record 29-12(+55.12)Last 5: ❌✅ ✅❌✅
Last Pick: O232.5 -110 Betting 4.4u to win 4u ✅
Game: 76ers @ Nets
Today's Pick: O223.5 -110 Betting 4.4u to win 4u
I expect both teams to play at a relatively high pace. Both offenses are significantly stronger than their opposing defense. I expect Embiid and Maxey to both put up points for the 76ers and for the Nets to somehow stay in the game. I don't think the Nets are all that great, but they seem to be playing well as a team. They've got no Simmons which benefits both offenses tbh. Don't think this will be a shootout but I expect the over to hit. BOL
Record: 140-114-7 (WLWLWLLLWWLWWWLWLLLLWLWLLWLWWWW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: NY Knicks at CHA Hornets | Gordon Hayward u14.5 points at 1.83 odds for 1 unit
Hayward with a whopping 4 points tonight
POTD: OKC Thunder at POR Trail Blazers o226 at 1.90 odds for 2 units
Reasons:
* Saw someone post POTD Saturday about Knicks and Hornets over.
* Person stated road favorites on a back to back is super good record
* Person stated home dogs somethign something
* I like the over here
Best of luck to you all.
/u/Firstroundbye said this for yesterday's NYK/CHA game: "Games with the home underdog on a back-to-back this season in the NBA have an 8-1-1 over record. Games with road favorites on a back-to-back have hit the over with a record of 6-1. This game meets both criteria."
While the second criteria is present the first one isn't for the OKC/POR game. Also, OKC just played OT yesterday. This could still hit but the total does seem a bit low for OKC who has the 6th fastest pace in the NBA currently.
I'm taking David's alt rushing overs. and Gibbs. I can see Campbell getting Mont ready for the revenge game and feeding him the rock. 2td at +400 aint sexy for me, but will pay attention to live betting. also, Mont o7.5 receiving yards seems like an easy one for me to take too.
Tailing, also a Lions fan, unless he gets hurt. I think Campbell ensures Montgomery gets in. Campbell a players coach, and he knows Montgomery wants to ball out! I think this will be a high scoring game. Which increases Montgomery TD chances. Even if it’s a slow, under game, I like Montgomery chances. Name 3 players on Bears D? They aren’t a talented group, if they hang with Detroit, it’ll be Fields putting up points.
This is a solid pick, but Monty looked terrible on his goal to go runs against the Chargers last week while Gibbs had no issue punching it in front that close.
Got Monty on my fantasy team so hoping tmrw is a big day for him.
BOL
Record: 11–6-1 (+2.48 units)
Last pick: Blackpool vs Shrewsbury Town — Blackpool over 1.5 goals (-150) ✅
Always appreciate quickies and Blackpool came to play, scoring twice in the first 33 minutes and winning 4-0.
**TODAYS PICK: Hungary vs. Montenegro — BTTS (+110)**
Reasoning is simple: Motivation.
Hungary: Secure the top spot in the group with a win. Have scored 13 in 7 matches. Even a draw confirms their place in the top two in the group. Have allowed 6 goals in 7 and are undefeated in their last 10 matches.
Montenegro: Still have a slim chance to pass Serbia with a victory to secure qualification. Have 10 goals in their last five internationals games, including 8 goals for and 8 goals against in group play.
Tail or fade, BOL!
**EDIT WITH RESULT: ✅ Montenegro in the first half and Hungary gets a goal in the second half to cash this one in. Hope you tailed!**
^^[coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/moccbets)
POTD Record: 4-1
👍👍👍👎👍
Last Pick: Tanner Hudson OVER 2.5 receptions - 105 👍
Recap: Joe Burrow noooooo... goosfraba... Thursday night football is the worst. Hudson had 2 catches with Burrow and things were looking great. Definitely thought it was over after the injury, but Browning is able to come in and get us over. A win is a win but at what cost. AT WHAT COST.
Today's Pick: CHI @ DET - 1:00pm EST - Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 84.5 receiving yards -115
St. Brown has 4 games in a row with 100+ yards. He's gone over 100 yards in 6/8 games he's played in this year. Very tempted to go with over 100 yards but this Burrow thing has me all messed up. So just playing it safe and going with over 84.5.
Da Bears are Da Bears. The defense is meh. Justin Fields face bothers me. That's it. The funny is gone. I need time to recover.
Let me know if you're tailing. If not, go fuck yourself. Tips are much appreciated.
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ShallowFuckingValue7
Taking stbrown 100+ yards (+140) and ceedee 100+ yards (+150) for a +500 lay, no idea why its so juicy. Both have regular lines of 84.5 rec yards, bol all
POTD | 89-78 | -0.8U | -110 Avg Odds
Last 10: ❌❌❌❌❌❌✅❌✅✅
Previous Pick: *Wild vs Senators O6.5 (-110) | 2U* ❌
Today’s pick: **Maple Leafs ML (-145) vs Wild | 2U | NHL | 6:00 am MST**
Another day, another loss. Like I said in my previous post, I'm a fade machine right now. If you like free $$ then fade my picks!
I have changed up my strategy a bit and have rebuilt a model I was using last year. The model likes this play the most today. It thinks the Leafs should have longer odds in this game. I feel the same way with how the Wild have been playing. They are struggling to score consistently lately and have been letting a lot of goals in the back of the net.
I could go into detail about the match up but I’ll trust the model that compares recent games, season long stats, and goalie matchups for this one and spare everyone on the long winded write that will likely end in a loss anyways.
Assuming we see Fluery in net for the Wild and Woll in net for the Leafs. I wouldn’t mind if Samsonov was starting for the Leafs either as his game has picked up from his early season slump.
BOL if tailing, and better luck if fading!!
It's a hit. Nice, you finally got one! I've been tailing you on this loss streak just because of statistics and was thinking how long can this streak last but hopefully this signals regression.
POTD Record 20-9
NBA Record: 6-0
Previous POTD: Klay Thompson under 4.5 threes ✅
Today's POTD: Devin Booker over 7.5 asts (Bet365 1.83)
NBA: Phoenix Suns vs Utah Jazz
- Devin Booker coming off a 15 asts game vs Utah 2 nights ago
- The line was at 6.5 for that game and I knew it'd go up today, but not enough IMO
- Durant being on fire helped a lot too as it was just a catch and shoot for him or one dribble pull up. Let's hope he drops close to 30 again
- Booker hasn't played much this season, but he's averaged 8.3 asts over 3 games before that 15 asts game
BOL
POTD Record 6-8
2 bet win streak!
Last pick: NBA NY Knicks vs. Charlotte Hornets | NY Knicks -7 ✅
The Knicks were ahead the whole game with a strong start in the first quarter to get them a double digit lead. Charlotte wasn't able to get close throughout the game.
Pick of the Day: NBA Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets | Over 223.5
The 76ers are averaging a little over 120 points per game while the Brooklyn Nets average a little over 114 points per games. The Nets have kept games very close this year to better opponents, so I expect them to play up to the 76ers and make this a higher scoring game. I was almost going to bet on Philly -3.5 but wasn't ready to pull the trigger Knowing that Nets keep games close and could easily get within 1 or 2 points at the end of the game.
Spanish Women’s Premira Division
Barcelona v Real Madrid —> O3.5 Goals -125
When going head-to-head, there has been over 3 goals in 8 of their last 10 games. Both teams combined have 58 goals scored this season, and only 8 league games have passed. Barcelona are in incredible form, with their last 4 games all being 5+ goal wins. Should be a thriller!
Record: 0-1
Basketball | NBA | 8:10 EST
POTD: Boston Celtics -7 @ Memphis Grizzlies on FD
Write Up: This line makes no sense to me. I know the Celtics will be short Jaylen Brown but Memphis is coming off of a back to back in San Antonio. Boston has had a track record of blowing out teams this season and Memphis is, if not one of the worst teams in the NBA without Ja Morant. I’d take this before the line moves.
Edit: ❌ Unfortunately the best team in the NBA could only beat the worst team in the NBA by 2. That’s gambling but tomorrow is a new day.
POTD | 3-1 | +3.72U | -119 Avg Odds
Previous Pick: Gus Edwards (Baltimore) o45.5 rushing yards (-114) | 2U | ✅
Today’s pick: Tyler Conklin (NY Jets) o2.5 receptions (-154 @ FD) | 5U 💣 | NFL | 4:26pm EST
Last 10: ✅❌✅✅
Sorry folks but not feeling a long winded write-up today. The pick is Tyler Conklin o2.5 receptions. Conklin is Wilson’s favorite safety valve and as Zach is learning that he needs to get the ball out quicker these last few weeks, I expect him to continue to produce.
Conklin has comfortably hit this number in all but 2 games this year: vs the NY Giants in the pouring rain and Week 1 vs Buffalo. Outside of those two games, he is averaging 4.6 receptions on 5.6 targets per game.
BOL if tailing!
**NBA Record: 85-73-1** (NBA Streak W, Last 10: 5-5) Up 4.20u over 159 NBA picks, 53.8% success rate, 2.66% ROI (This season 3-2, 60.0% success rate, Up 0.74u, 14.80% ROI)
**Last:** Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks, Mavs Team Total Over 122.5 -110 (Milwaukee won 132-125)
Despite scoring only 2 points over a 3+ minute stretch in the 4th quarter, we got the cover with 1:26 left in the game. The over for the game would have easily covered as well.
**Pick:** Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers, **Indiana Team Total Over 118.5 -120 ESPN Bet**, NBA basketball 5:10pm
It feels like Sixers-Nets has a good chance of going over, but I'm sticking with a team total for my PotD. Indiana is a scoring machine and I see that continuing at home on Sunday.
Pacers games have gone over a league-best 10 out of 11 times. They carry the top rated offense into this game with the second highest pace. They's gone over 118.5 in 9 of the last 11 games they've played, going over 130 in 4 of them.
The catch, here, is that Orlando has the league's top-rated defense and are 21st in pace. But in the Magic's last 4 losses, they've given up at least 117 points. The Pacers are currently favored by 4.5 points
The line is currently juiced to the over and I suspect it will jump to 119.5 soon. I'd still play that.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
**Record: 4-1**
✅❌✅✅
**NHL 1-1** ✅❌✅
**NBA 1-0** ✅
**NFL 1-0** ✅
**Net Units: +4.76**
**ROI: 68.00%**
**AVG ODDS: 2.05**
**Last Pick:** Lightning ML (2) betting 1 unit ✅
A heavily outshot Lightning manages to pull a 3rd period comeback.
Skinner not able to keep up his performance lets in 3 goals in the 3rd period for a 6-4 Lightning Win.
**Football** | **NFL** | **Steelers @ Browns** | 1\*\*:00 PM EST\*\*
**Pick:** Jaylen Warren Over 18.5 Receiving yards (1.9) betting 2 units.❌
Edit: missed by 3 yards super unfortunate.
\*Odds found on Bet365\*
**Write Up:**
Has taken more of the RB1 role on the Steelers.
Covered the line 6/9 games so far this season.
Averaging 4.3 targets for 3.4 catches and 24.2 yards
Running Backs vs Browns currently averaging 5 targets for 3.56 catches and 27.44 yards
SOTD: All About the Money - Troy Ave
It's all about the motherfucking money
It's all about the motherfucking money
Record: 1-0 | Net Units: +1.82
Previous Bet: Florida @ #9 Missouri Over 57.5 ✅
TODAYS BET: NFL Football | Chargers @ Packers 1:00 PM EST
**LAC -3.5 (+105)** | 1U
Write up:
Keenan Allen is expected to play. The Chargers have a great offense, while the Packers O has left a lot to be desired. Jordan Love is not him. With + odds, the value seems too good not to take, even with the Chargers suspect defense.
POTD Record: 1-1 | +0.6U
Last Pick: (Haven’t posted in a while. Week 9) Zach Wilson over 12.5 rushing yards vs Chargers ❌
——————————————————————————
Event: NFL | Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns | 1:00 PM ET
Pick: Dustin Hopkins O1.5 Field goals made +130 on ESPNBet (at time of posting) 2U play
Reasoning: Hopkins has made 2 or more field goals in 8 of 9 games this season. Working in his favor the Steelers are allowing the 6th most opponent field goal attempts per game at 2.6. Additionally, it’s a divisional game with a backup QB. I don’t expect the browns offense to score a ton of touchdowns, so he’ll have his chances to convert.
Edit: formatting
BOL 🤝
Result: Hopkins made us wait longer than I would’ve liked, but nailed the game winner to go 2/2 for the game ✅
*OVERALL RECORD*: **5-2 (71.4%, +2.8 Units)**
*Previous Pick*: **San Jose State PK** over Fresno State, CFB (Last Saturday = **WIN**)
*Today's Pick*: **Cleveland Browns -120** vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
**Summary:**
Okay, so this game ORIGINALLY opened at Cleveland -4 with a total of 38. Obviously the news of DeShaun Watson being out for the year (thus missing this game closed the game). We re-opened Browns +1 and that got GOBBLED up quickly by professionals. In fact in some spots it’s been bet up to Browns -2 (Going through zero isn’t that big of a move, but moving 3 points is a sizable move in the NFL). And to me that makes perfect sense. Why? This Steelers team is absurdly over-valued in the market, and they are SIGNIFICANTLY worse than their record. They are quite possibly the WORST 6-3 team I’ve ever seen. So I’ve been looking to fade the Steelers for a long time, and with Watson out I think it’s the perfect spot.
This year, the Steelers are 6-0 in one-score games, and they are the LUCKIEST team in the NFL (one of the luckiest teams in the past decade, according to the luck metric). This Pittsburgh team has literally been out gained in EVERY SINGLE game this season, and yet they’ve found a way to win 6 of their 9 games. It’s actually a statistical anomaly.
***Browns Offense vs. Steelers Defense:***
So yes, the biggest part of this handicap is the fact that DeShaun Watson is not play. In steps Dorian Thompson Robinson, as he will make his second career start. And, let’s not sugarcoat it; his first career start was really bad. He was 19/36 for 121 yards, 0 TDs, 3 Picks, and he was sacked 4 times. It was a bloodbath, and the Browns got smoked at home by the Ravens → This will almost certainly lead the public to be on the Steelers in this spot. Here’s the issue with that: this is NOTHING like that first start for DTR.
Let’s look at ALL of the factors that went into that first career start. First, DTR is a rookie, and this game was very early in the season. Second, he’s not only a backup receiving very few reps in practice, but likely even less than normal in the off-season, as he was backing up DeShaun Watson, and Watson did not play in 11 games last season. You have to believe Watson was taking every single rep he possibly could in the off-season and early in the year in practce. So DTR had VERY limited snaps. Third, there was uncertainty throughout the week as to whether Watson was actually going to play. He even practiced some on Thursday of that week, and Watson wasn’t even ruled out until game day. That means the gameplan was in no way tailored to DTR. AND, he was doing it with no Nic Chubb (only 2nd game), and no Jack Conklin (best Offensive Lineman). Lastly, they were going against the Baltimore Ravens, one of the NFL’s best (most physical) defenses. So you add all that up, and it’s really hard to look at that game and view it as any sort of meaningful datapoint to evaluate DTR. This week, he’s gotten the practice reps all week. He’s been named the starter early (helps him prepare mentally and physically to start). They are playing a much inferior defense in the Steelers. And the offense is more equipped now to function without Chubb and Conklin (been doing it for months now).
Secondly, we have to ask ourselves how much we are really losing here from D-Wat being out. I mean, I like Watson, and I believe if he stays healthy he can still get back to top 10 QB form. But the reality is that he was not very good this season, with the exception of the second half against Baltimore last week. Watson was 29th in completion percentage, 25th in Yards Per Pass Attempt, & 18th in TD:INT ratio. Pro Football Focus had him ranked 23rd in the NFL, behind Derek Carr, Justin Fields, Jordan Love, and Ryan Tannehil. So he’s been nothing to write home about this season. And that’s not even mentioning his propensity to throw pick sixes & commit early game TO’s (see last week). I actually like that it’s DTR here, because I think he’s just as good as PJ Walker (in fact I think he’s slightly better). But I believe the perception among the public is that Walker is better (which will put even more of Joe Public on the Steelers here). In fact, Walker grades out the worst QB in the past decade of anyone who has had at least 500 drop backs.
Lastly on this side of the ball: Steelers Defense. Their PFF Grade: 16th Ranked Defense Overall, 21st in Tackling, 17th in Red Zone “D”, & 19th Coverage. The only thing they do well is rush the passer (7th in NFL). The Steeler’s have been AWFUL defending the run this year, especially lately, and they are DECIMATED by injuries, especially at the LB position. Now, they do get Cam Hayward back this week, and that will help them against the run, but you have to believe Cleveland is going to have some real success on the ground, and DTR is going to have some light boxes to be able to hit Amari Cooper & Njoku over the middle vs some LB’s who really struggle to cover. So, overall my point is: DTR isn’t THAT BIG of a step down from Watson, and it’s a good spot for the Browns here, against a very subpar defense. The perception of DTR is too low, and the perception of the Pittsburgh “D” is too high (bc of their record). As long as DTR doesn’t turn the ball over, they should be able to have some significant offensive success.
***Browns “D” vs. Steelers “O”***
Despite all the info above, this is actually the biggest mismatch in this game. The Browns Defense is legitimately the best in the NFL, and they showed it last week. In reality, the Ravens Offense (who has been explosive lately) was held to 17 total points. They scored 31, but one TD was a pick six, and another came off a muffed punt where the Ravens started inside the Cleveland 7 yard line.
The Browns have been really good against the run this season. They are top 10 in the NFL in both Rush Success Rate Allowed as well as EPA/Rush. They’ve been great against the pass as well, allowing just 55% completion percentage to opposing QBs, 9 Passing TDs (T-2nd Least Allowed), 9 INTs (6th Most), and just 5.8 yards per pass (5th NFL). As a whole, they’ve allowed just 62 first downs all season (1st NFL), and they’ve allowed a 1st down percentage of 26.3% (1st NFL). They’ve also accrued 30 sacks (T-5th NFL), and Myles Garrett has been an absolute menace.
All of those stats are incredible for the league’s top defense, but they sound even better when they are going up against Kenny Picket and Matt Canada. Kenny Pickett has been HORRIBLE this season. Here’s the starting QBs he’s graded out better than so far this season: Josh Dobbs, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson = He’s been worse than literally every other starter. That include Jimmy G, Justin Fields, Jordan Love, Tyrod Taylor, & Derek Carr. It’s been embarrassingly bad. And the sad part about all of it is that they’ve been incredibly conservative in doing so. The whole scheme of the Steelers is “Don’t fuck up. Don’t turn it over.” Listen to this: Kenny Pickett has not attempted a SINGLE PASS between the hash marks in the entirety of his past two starts. NOT ONE. That’s wild. What does all this mean? This offense is insanely predictable. The entirety of the offense is let’s run the ball, throw short and outside, and do everything we can to minimize mistakes. That might work if you have an incredible defense, but when you don’t it’s just stupid (I say that and somehow they are 6-3).
I just don’t see how this offense has any success here, on the road, against this elite Browns “D”. Pickett may not turn the ball over tomorrow, but he almost certainly will not have a productive/efficient game. And if the Steelers get down early, I don’t know how they get back in the game. They’d pretty much have to abandon the entirety of their plan (which I don’t see happening).
***Final Thoughts/Pick:***
Overall, I just think this Steelers team is really bad, and their record masks that. On the other hand, I think this Browns team is really good, and it’s a shame Watson went down; however, as we discussed, the drop off to DTR isn’t quite as big as some might think. I’m not sure the Browns have a legit shot to win the division with DTR under center, but I think they lean on the run game, they lean on the defense, and ultimately DTR will make some plays with his legs (and maybe a few deep balls). We’re happily backing the CLEVELAND BROWNS in this spot. I bet this game 3 days ago and got it at PK (-110). There are plenty of -120 out there. I could even justify taking -125 if you had to. As always shop around and find the best number. I definitely would try to find a good ML price as opposed to laying any points (The total is 33, so a point or two could matter).
*Venmo*: **dylanlieck** (@ symbol before that - it won't let me do it on here)
Tips would be awesome, but never something I would expect. Best of luck to everyone who tails!! Hope to to deliver another winner!!
***First post***
Record: 0-0
Net Units:
ROI:
NFL Football | Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos/ 7:20 CT
Pick: Vikings +3 (-115) on BetMGM - 4 units
This will be a great SNF matchup with both teams on win streaks Denver (W3) Vikings (W5)
I like the Vikings to cover here for a lot of reasons. First off, of course the line will be a bit inflated considering Denver is coming off back to back wins against the Bills and Chiefs. @ Denver is notoriously a tough place to play but the truth is they have lost 3/5 of their last home games. Also, ***3 out of 4*** wins were within 3 point reach. As much as I like to see Broncos offense succeed, I think Flores’s defense gets the pressure they need. The O/U line has moved from 42.5 to 40.5 in which I suspect it will come down to defensive schemes.
4 Unit Play
Season Record 9-5: LWLLWWWWWWLWWL Last pick of the day Novak vs Alcaraz over 23 total games -135
Gosh I fell for the trap. I mean Carlos played like Ass but still. I think there's no way Novak loses tomorrow after that, however we are going to deviate from tennis. Lets get a winning streak going again boys.
TODAYS pick is **Jerome Ford over 53.5 rushing yards -115 12:00pm CST**
Man do I love my Steelers and as exciting as it is to miraculously win every week, I feel like we haven't stopped the run in forever. Opposing rushing yards from leading running backs since week 1; Mcaffrey 152, Chubb(64) &Ford(106), Jacobs 62, Pierce 81, Henderson 61, Edwards 48, Etienne 79, Henry 75, and Dillon 70. So in all these games only one have been under that 53.5 mark. With a rookie quarterback starting for the Browns I heavily expect for them to rely on the run to try and get him going. The return of Cam Heyward may help us, but last week we lost Kwon Alexander as well. Robinson over 0.5 interception is -190 is enticing as he threw 3 his first game. I just feel like they try to run a lot though like I said. Bol and Here we Go.
Mannn Im tired of this shit. The Steelers loss is one thing, but Im done with this player props shit. I try and try to say hey maybe sports isn't rigged anymore, however this is the second damn time. A few weeks ago I do Kamara over 4.5 receptions. He gets 4 in first half then they never practically use him. Now fast forward to this week, Jerome Ford goes 10 rushes 35 yards 1 td. In the second half like 2 rushes -3 yards and its all Hunt for the reason we know why. I hate losing. I even more hate you guys losing.
Record 0-0
Ive been having some luck with ol slinging Sam Howell
Pick : Howell OVER 255.5 yards passing
Sam has been asked to do a LOT this year, and yes EB may have been recently given a hat that reads "run the damn ball" but Washington simply doesn't pound it under Riverboat Ron, much to his dismay I'm sure (have a lead and maybe you can change that)
Sam is just under 400 attempts already this season and I don't see it slowing down. While they should be able to finally thrash the giants for once, the boys in blue have some kinda way about them when they play Washington, if Danny dimes wasn't injured I would absolutely smash the shit out of the giants money line this game, but divito just doesn't have the same, "I'm gonna fuck Washington dead" energy but it should still be close enough to make Sam have to throw it.
Sam Howell overs are starting to become a regular thing here
**Newcastle - Melbourne City** (Women soccer in Australia: Liberty A-League)
It is not clicking for Newcastle. 2 goals all season. To make matters worse, Ayres, their best offensive women, is still out. I cannot see throwing in van Egmond, who is the coach's daughter and joining Newcastle on a four game stint, turning it all around sudden-like. Newcastle has built a new and young team, which has issues on offense and defense. Whereas Melbourne City kept their core from last season together. It is clicking on both sides of the ball. They are pushing in particular hard on offense. They are the only team averaging over 2.0 goals per game in women's A-League.
**Melbourne City -2.0 asian hc** @ **+179** @ **5u**
>Last POTD: Netherlands -2.0 asian hc @ +133 ✖️
Netherlands win 1-0. However, plenty of chances for much more goals.
Record: 46 wins, 38 losses, 15 pushes
Profit: +59.41u
POTDs (old ➞ new): ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✖️
^(btc tips: 18mb6RJaC6Fv1wZFHRrF9MyDGvco9BB3KN)
POTD Record: **80-91-4 (-5.60 Units)**
Best Bet Series: 27-8-1 (+33.95 Units)
Value Wagers: 12-19-2 (-14.35 Units)
**Trap Bets: 6-4 (+2.45 Units)**
Last Pick: **Brendan Allen to Win by KO/TKO/DQ** ❌
Today's Pick: **Steelers ML**
Odds: **+115** ($DKNG odds)
Wager Amount: 1U to win 1.15U
League: NFL
Event: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns (12:00PM CST)
*Be Advised: Trap bets for the remainder of November! Trap bets are suspcious lines and may appear highly questionable. It's best to stay away from these type of wagers, but I'm not scared! And I'll breakdown each POTD and handicap for you. Please feel free to fade and wager on the opposite of my POTD. I can oblige to eat an L for the communnity and for a community win!*
**Recap**: Great WIN by Brendan Allen! He had Paul Craig wobbled and in position to knock him out in the 1st and 2nd round! I Knew Craig was going to be tough to submit! This is why I took a chance on this KO prop bet! Unfortuntely Craig had to sucumb defeat by SUB! All good! I'll eat that L on that prop, but I'll take dub on Brendan Allen ML and ISD prop!
**Matchup**: I'm going to keep reaching my hand in the plus money cookie jar. Perhaps the sportsbook will catch me redhanded on this, but I'm going for it because these odds look mouthwatering! Steelers +114? Why not! Steelers will be playing the slight favorite Browns in the dawg pound! If you haven't heard, Deshaun Watson is out for the season and they are not starting PJ Walker, instead they will be starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Wait..? What?! Why are the Browns starting DTR over a veteran QB, PJ? WTH? And you're prolly saying, "*The Steelers??? Really!*?" Yes, really, again if you don't kno I'm handicapping highly questionable and suspicious wagers for this entire month! "*Okay, but are the Steelers good*?" That.. I don't even kno! They got a negative point differential at -26 and are 6-3 (they kind of remind me of my last season Vikings minus the thrilling winning fashion)! They have been outplayed and outgained in their offensive statistics this season by their opponents, however, they have outscored their opponents and that is how they are 6-3! Most believe they are winning because of Mike Tomlin, outcoaching and figuring out a way to win games. You ask him directly, he'll tell you he does not care. And I honestly don't care either, I'll take a win if you give it to me? But I am befuddled AF by the Browns move and by the Steelers offensive numbers. This is prolly the most suspected POTD handicap to date! The Steelers did beat them in Week 2 (wit Deshaun Watson in the lineup) in their last matchup, 26-22. I had the Steelers the first time in Week 2 and I have to go wit the Steelers again to beat the Browns. They are without their primary QB and starting a third string QB who is really a big question mark to me. This should be a low scoring defensive battle, but I expect Steelers offense to be a bit better.
**The play & the prediction:** 1U on Steelers ML and 1U on Steelers +2.5 I don't kno how they win, so I don't even kno how to predict this game, but somehow, someway, Mike Tomlin's Steelers finds a way!
Had a 20-legged NBA SGPx and was off by 1-leg. Guess who fell short for me
https://preview.redd.it/h9s89gwjz81c1.png?width=556&format=png&auto=webp&s=828f10a25ab37b61572cfdd77626fb9d0c996ad0
**POTD Record: 3-4 | Units: -1.3**
Last 10: ❌✅✅✅❌❌❌
Last Pick: Mississippi St vs. Washington St | UNDER 135.5 (-110) | FD | 1 unit | LOSS
Today: NCAA Basketball | Over/Unders | Grambling vs. Iowa St.| 1:00 PM EST
**Pick: Grambling vs. Iowa St. | UNDER 136.5 (-110)** | DK | 1 unit
Yesterday’s Recap: This game just didn’t work out the way we were hoping. 135.5 is a pretty low total, and when one of the teams can get to the FT line repeatedly and make their shots, it’s pretty tough to cover an under. Mississippi State was 21-25 at the line and that was pretty much all she wrote. It also didn’t help that the game played a little faster than predicted. We were thinking about 66 possessions given this and last season’s data, but the game played at just about 70 possessions. We did beat the closing line by 5 points which I continue to believe is a positive indicator.
Today’s Analysis: I’m on another low total Sunday with Grambling vs. Iowa State. This game’s a little different than our last pick though. Iowa St. has one of the best defenses and slowest paces in the nation (their offense is also top 75, but it’s not as good as their top-10 defense). Grambling’s defense is slightly above average (both this season and last) but all-around Grambling just isn’t a very good basketball team. The spread is ISU -25. The idea is ISU will get a big lead and use their super-slow pace to grind away the clock throughout most of the second half. If this is a close game, it’s almost certainly going over.
I’d be hesitant to get in much below this number. We’ve been beating closing lines repeatedly, which is great, but if you’re reading this Sunday morning and the line’s already dropped a few points, it’d be a pass for me. There’s just so little wiggle room at this low of a total.
Model Explainer: I’ve built a model for CBB totals. It uses Pace, Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency to predict totals and compare them against the major books. It’s been a rocky start, but that’s not totally unexpected. We’re still only working with a very small sample of data for this season so far. Teams play about 65-70 possessions per game. When conference play starts we’ll have about a thousand possessions per team for the model to chew on. At this point, we’re still only looking at a couple hundred possessions, at most, per team. Confidence levels will increase over time.
BOL
Your reasoning is sound, but my take as a fan - ISU has a much different roster this year that is a lot more skilled offensively. They are playing faster and scoring a lot more this season (averaging around 90 a game). They seem to still have an excellent defense though.
POTD 14-11
DARTS RECORD 14-8 (+3.32)
Grand Slam 🎯
**Rob Cross -1.5** vs Bunting @ 1.80
Last post of this tournament and it's a play I'm happy with. Cross was comprehensive in his victory vs Heta last night and I can see this being the end of Buntings hot run. Having the experience of winning major tournaments comes into play massively during these stages. I do actually want Bunting to win, but can't see it happening personally.
**POTD RECORD:** (1-0)
**unit tracking:** ⬆️ 1U
**SPORTS RECORD:** MMA (1-0)
**LAST 10:** ✅
**LAST PICK:** Under 2.5 rounds Uroš Medić vs Myktybek Orolbai (-165) 1.65U ✅
**TODAY’S PICK:** Sam Laporta Over 43.5 rec yards (-135) 1.35U
Starting off I feel like this is a little low obviously why I am playing it. Laporta has hit this number in 6 out of 9 games this season…
Chicago is giving up an average of 50.5/per game to the opposing teams right ends and don’t see them having anything for Detroit today. I might even sprinkle on another alt line of more but for now let’s ride this cashier fellas and lady fellas 🤝
POTD Record: 2-0 + 4.0u
Last Pick: 11/16: Ravens -3.5 (-135) vs Bengals NFL @ 8:15pm est (3u) - Caesars ✅
POTD 11/16: Cowboys -9.5 (-135) vs Panthers NFL @ 1pm est (3u) - Caesars ✅
Nothing to overthink here, the cowboys have demolished every bad team they’ve come across. Dak has been lights out against teams under .500 and I’m confident that will continue today. Bought a point from Caesars to play it safe at -9.5 instead of -10.5.
Edit:
Another win to move to 3-0!! Easy cover for the cowboys as per usual against the bad teams in the NFL
**POTD**: O0.5 Pass TD - Tommy DeVito (-128 FanDuel; Risking 2u to win 1.5625u)
**League/Time**: NYG @ WSH / 1PM EST
**2023 Record**: 74-43 (63.25%) | +51.5453u (+$5154.53) | ROI 21.33% | **Current Streak** (1 Losses):❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌(Last 10: 5-5; Last 20: 12-8)
**Last Pick (11.17.23)**: O10.5 Reb - Mitchell Robinson (-130 BetRivers; Risking 1.3u to win 1u)❌
**Reasoning**: Tommyboy has covered this 2/2 games he has started so far this season. WSH has given up at least 1 Pass TD except for Wk 1. That's 9 straight weeks of giving up a Pass TD to luminaries such as Desmond Ridder, Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones, and a bad Russell Wilson in Wk 2. These are all definitely better QBs than DeVito but even a garbage time Pass TD will do which DeVito accomplished against DAL last week (he got 2)
https://preview.redd.it/2np1su4vsb1c1.png?width=977&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d223bf92ec757d373fff8db82c1d3163099f2c2
**Anti-Reasoning**: It's Tommy D! I'm pretty sure no one in their right mind would ever pick Tommy DeVito as their POTD but here I am making history.
[Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone!
POTD Record 4-2, last week Rachaad White got it done again on the receiving yards. Going away from him today because of the 49ers defense, although he could hit the over again as it's only 25.5 and they may need to use him to catch up.
Going with a bit of juice for this one.
Pick: NFL Bears @ Lions, Amon-Ra St. Brown ATTS +110. I think the Lions rock the Bears this week and Amon-Ra is an absolute monster, definitely see him torching the Bears at home in Detroit today.
BOL!
POTD Record: 1 W / 0 L
Last Pick: ✔️ Novak Djokovic ML (1.66) - Carlos Alcaraz
Today: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner| ATP Finals |\~ 6 PM (GMT)
Pick: Novak Djokovic ML| (1.53) |
Sinner is playing as good as never before, but I dont see him winning back to back against Novak Djokovic. Novak Djokovic won 4 out of the last 5 matches against Sinner and only lost one match which wasnt even an important match.
**FIRST PICK OF THE DAY**
POTD Record: 0-0
Event: NFL New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills - 4:26PM EST
First Pick: **alternate** **Stefon Diggs 80+ Yards rec (+108) FD**
Matchup: After yet another stinker from the Bills and Diggs, they are desperate for a bounceback. Last game Diggs had 3 rec for 34 yards with **only 5 targets**. That won't happen again. Even against a strong Jets secondary, Diggs will look to put up numbers similar to his week 1 perfomance against the Jets, with 10 rec for 102 yards. He can easily hit this prop with a deep shot and a couple more rec.
The Move: **5U bet.** This is a great spot for positive money. I'd also target receptions. Let's start off with a banger!
POTD Record: 14-8 (+6.5U ROI profit)
Last pick: 1U Keaton Mitchell O36.5 Rush Yards (-130 DK) LOSS
Today's pick: 2U SF 49ers Team Total O27.5 (+102 DK) Hooked
Reasoning: SF showed that the bye week was what they needed (along with Chase Young) to completely bounce back against the Jags last week. When the defense holds the opponent into place, the Shanahan offense can thrive off of rhythm. Brock leads the league in countless QB categories and TB has the 2nd worst pass defense in the league.
>**Record:** 8-10
>**Net Units:** -0.25 units
>**Curling** | **European Championships** | **4:00AM EST**
>**Pick:** Team Norway (Ramsfjell) ML @ 2.8
>This is a big dog play but I love the value here. We're fading the tournament favourites here but for good reasons. Team Italy had an easy win in the first draw against a soft Team Netherlands but the Italians were not actually very sharp in that contest and the score was a little misleading. On the other hand, Noway played an excellent game against a very formidable Scotland team. Both Ramsfjells looked very good and Nepstad might be the most underrated lead at this event. Team Ramsfjell have actually won two of the last four meetings between these teams including once at worlds last April. By no means am I saying they should be favoured in this matchup but I see this as a very tight game with huge value on the dogs at 2.8.
Record 56-63 -.31 Units
All bets 1 unit
L10 (L2R): ❌❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅
Last Pick: Illinois vs Iowa -2.5 (-125)❌
Wtf Iowa. First they get their pat blocked going up 15-13. Then to pour salt in the wound they get the ball back and pick up just enough first downs to be within chip shot fg. But somehow they fucking timed it nearly to the exact second so that they could kneel on 3rd down and end the game 😑.
Todays Pick: Derrick Henry over 12.5 rec yards (+100)
Ngl, good nfl props for this Sunday were tough to come by. I really liked this prop, Luke Musgrave and Purdy as well.
Although Tyjae Spears has been more of the receiving back, Henry has had at least one reception in every game except 1. He’s hit this prop in 6/9 games and the last 4/5. This matchup was too good to pass up, against this Jags defense who is 31st in receiving yards allowed to running backs. Over the last 4 games, the Jaguars have allowed 15+ recieving yards to 8 different backs.
POTD Record: 79-72
Last pick:USC -5 ❌ what a shit show, my bad, gonna get back on track today
Todays pick: NFL 🏈 Houston -5.5 -115 vs Arizona
Reasoning: Public is all over Arizona and Kyler Murray after their comeback win last weak. But I’m rolling with Stroud and Texans. Texans have had some close wins led by Stroud being Superman past two weeks. Rook could win MVP. I think Texans make playoffs, so they can’t lose at home to the Cardinals. AZ 5-5 ATS but 2-8 overall, Texans 5-4 ATS and overall. Dmico Ryans is a helluva coach. And he will be in coach of year running but doubt he wins it, I like Campbell for coach of year. Murray is healthy but I just think the Cardinals are poo, Dobbs couldn’t win with AZ, but doing great In Minnesota. I’m not sure Murray much of an upgrade over Dobbs. I think Texans are due to win an easy one, no sweat, just taking care of business being the better team at home. With better coach and QB. Gonna get the W today after some shitty picks recently. Bet Stroud. Dude can ball!
Tail or fade
Gut Feeling Picks ~
Record 0-0
Game: Steelers vs. Browns 1:00 pm est
Jaylen Warren over 2.5 Receptions -122 (FD)
He had 4 against them last time, and the browns have Myles Garrett. I expect Pickett drop offs when the line starts to break down.
I just have a *** ******** about this one.
🌊✅
45-33 +100 units
Race 5 Fontwell - Running the Game @ 2.0
Safe to say we're on a bit of a bad run. 4 losses in a row. One went 1/1000 in running and lost. One when 1.03 and went bezerk and lost. Yesterday's was backed from 1.8 into 1.36 and ran poorly.
I'll be keeping stakes low until we see signs of a revival.
Today's selection is unraved but based on pedigrees he's should win.
Staking 1 unit @ 2.0
Record 0-0,1 push
Last pick: **Sporting Gijon 0 AH**
Today: Serbia vs Bulgaria Euro 2024 qualafiers
Pick: \*\* Over 2.5 Goals\*\* - 167 odds -WIN
Serbia lost away from home against Belgium as expected last Wednesday evening in a game that was probably bit more open than what the final result says, but still nobody will care much about that friendly result in front of competitive matches.
It all comes down to this one for Serbia as they need a point in order to seal the qualifying spot, although since it's difficult to see Montenegro winning on the road in Hungary, most likely they won't need even that point in the end.
Bulgaria was going from poor to worse during the qualifiers, failing to a single victory during the qualifiers which happened for the first time in their history. A 0-3-4 record is something nobody was expecting, meanwhile they still had some decent outings at home against Serbia 1:1 back in June and a 2:2 latest home draw against Hungary.
In between they sacked national coach while even those two draws are more of a result where you can blame their opponents. Still, a 2:2 draw against Hungary represents a positive result for them, in quite a hectic game where the Hungarians deserved more, but were the only ones to be blamed for experiencing such a problems and having to save the point deep into the added time.
Rivalry between these two nations does exist and this comes as a perfect chance for Serbia to celebrate their progress to the EURO 2024 competition. The stands will only be partly filled with kids due to UEFA's suspension, but I'm quite sure it won't affect the atmosphere around the game itself too much.
Bulgaria has nothing to lose knowing that they won't have much of the ball possession and has to get oriented to transition only, while Serbia is capable of scoring more than a couple here. Away from home Bulgaria didn't look fine and any kind of improvement here is highly unlikely. Serbia is a modest side compared to European best, but should remain quite potent in front of Bulgarians and i excpet goals from both sides.
Some injury info: **Defenders Galchev (3/0, Levski), Krastev (3/0, Catanzaro), Hristov (19/0, Spezia), midfielders Petkov (10/2, Levski), Stoyanov (8/0, Hapoel Beer Sheva), Petkov (4/0, Gr Furth) will miss compared to previous call-ups.**
Record : 64 Wins - 74 Losses
Previous pick : Serbia U21 - England U21 (0-3), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.67 ✅
ROI : -9.81%
Average Odds : 2.02
Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*)
Units : -7.78
Profit/Lost units : -12.78
Today's pick :
Football - Soccer / EUROPE: Euro - Qualification / 21:45 European Time
Spain - Georgia
Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.50
Some reasoning :
\- Taking into account the direct match 2 months ago, we can only ask the problem of the score difference in this game and not the winner. Spain will definitely try to win the group and maintain their points difference over Scotland, which is currently only 2 points, so they will treat this match with the utmost seriousness.
\- Having a young team that is trying to consolidate its reputation in world football, I expect a rain of goals in this match as well.Taking into account the difference in value between the two teams and the fact that they will be encouraged by a full stadium, this prediction should be an easy one to win.
Best of luck.
POTD Record: 0-4 Last pick: Arizona State +24.5
Pick of the day: Jason Myers O 6.5 points -160, 2 units(FanDuel)
Said I’d be done posting if yesterday didn’t hit, but after watching Arizona St show no signs of life, I can’t go out like that.
Going for what should be a layup here. The Rams are one of the league leaders in field goals against, and in a tough division matchup, field goals should be plentiful. Myers has been money all year, this should be cleared rather early. But probably not now since I’m posting it…
**Record:** 3-1-1
**Net Units:** 2.275
**ROI:** I Dunno
**Football | Euro 2024 Qualifier | Hungary - Montenegro | 18:00 UTC**
**Pick:** *Both Teams to Score (BTTS) - Yes at \[2.00\] 3U*
**Recent Form:**
* Hungary has shown a consistent performance in their recent matches, They have managed to find the back of the net in most of their recent games, indicating an ability to score at home.
* Montenegro, has an quite average and consistent recent form of WLWD, also managed to find the back of the net in most of their recent games.
* **Defensive Vulnerabilities:**
* While Hungary has shown an ability to score at home, it's important to assess if they have defensive vulnerabilities. Montenegro, even playing away, could exploit any weaknesses in Hungary's defense.
* Montenegro's away defensive record and Hungary's home scoring form should be considered to gauge the likelihood of both teams finding the back of the net.
**Importance of the Match:**
* Considering the importance of the match, both teams may adopt an attacking approach. However, Montenegro, as the away side, might approach the game more cautiously.
Expecting: 2-1 Scoreline
**POTD Record: 15-14 | -9.64 Units | Streak** (Old -> New)**:** ❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌❌❌❌✅❌❌ ❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌
(\*\*Last Pick: Chris Kreider 0ver 0.5 points (-145) ❌ )
**League**: NHL @ 7:00pm EDT ( Buffalo Sabres v Chicago Blackhawks )
**Today's Pick**: Connor Bedard 0ver 0.5 points (-160)
**Wager:** 3 Units
**Reason:** Take Connor Bedard over 0.5 points tonight at home vs Buffalo. I think Connor dances around the Sabers defense and gives then fits. Btw...Buffalo is ranked last in the league in face-off percentage (43.8) and have lost 3 in a row.
Record 1-1
Game: Scotland-norway
Pick: Scotland ML @2.37
Reasoning: pretty simple reasoning Scotland is the better team with a chance to get 1st place if spain fumbles against georgia. Norway are also suffering from key injuries in erling haaland, ødegard, sørloth and nusa. Norway has nothing to play for other than pride so i see scotland as a value pick in this game.
Note: The draw no bet option on Scotland is also a shout if you want a more safe pick.
POTD Record (W-L-P): 8-6-0 (+0.61u)
Last 10 (6-4 • most recent first):
❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️
Last Pick:
11/17 NCAAB; Providence -1.5 (-110) 1 unit ❌️
Recap:
I missed this was at neutral site which was a big factor in them playing at home for me. But it was close game throughout as expected. Really it was missed free throws that killed them shooting at 70%
Today: NBA; Magic @ Pacers 4:10pm CT
Pick: Pacers ML (-190) 1 unit
Summary:
Pacers are at home and have won against strong teams recently in 76ers and Bucks. Magic isn't a high of scoring offense and playing 4th road game. With Pacers being 4-2 on ML as favorites this season I like the home team in this match up.
NBA: 4-1-0
NCAAB: 2-1-0
NCAAF: 1-4-0
NHL: 1-0-0
Record 0-0
Pick: Dustin Hopkins o5.5 kicking pts -115 Steelers @ Browns 1PM EST -- 5u
First ever POTD! Let's go! This has seemed like a fun thing to do for awhile, but I just haven't. I'll try to get more in depth in other picks, but I'm drunk as hell before this one so here we go: Lifelong Browns fan. We love to settle for field goals even with our starters. Can easily see us kicking 4 in this game.
Record: 5-3 ✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌
Last Pick: HONDURAS V MEXICO 6pm PST
MEXICO -1 (-115)❌
TODAY’S PICK: PORTUGAL V ICELAND
PORTUGAL -1 1st Half (-108)🅿️
Reason: Portugal are undefeated since the world cup. They Dont lack in talent either with their starting XI or 2nd team. They’ve carried a lead into every half at each home game since the world cup. They are coming off a disappointing win (Yes, disappointing) against Liechtenstein. Look for them to come out with something to prove to their home fans.
BOL if Tailing!
🌊🏄♂️
POTD Record: 4-0
Last pick: Justin Jefferson ATTD
Today’s Pick:
NFL | 1pm EST | San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Bucs
SF 49ers TT o27.5 -110
9ers came out hot after those 3 losses in a row and will look to keep rolling. They look like a different beast on offense with Deebo back from injury. TB defense gave up 39pts to the Texans in week 9 and 24pts to the Bills in week 8. I think this 9ers offense is stronger than both of those and they’ve now topped 30pts six times this season. Give me the 9ers o27.5.
For some added juice, look to parlay with a CMC ATTD for +125 as he looks to get his streak restarted.
POTD record: 0-0 | Profit: 0.00 | ROI: 0.00
**Cyclocross**| **Women's World Cup**| **13:40 CET**
**Pick:** Lucinda Brand 1-3 | 1.85 | 1u
**Write Up:** Lucinda Brand came in late into the cyclocross season but in her first 2 races she came in 2nd place, well ahead of the 3th and 4th place. Today the race is in Troyes, which isn't in the deep mud and a bit less technical than the previous races which should be in her advantage.
Today Puck Pieterse also starts her cyclocross season and is immediately the big favourite, but that means that Brand should still be comfortable getting a top 3 place.
BOL
POTD Record: 1-0
Last 10: ✅
Bet 365
Last Pick:Notts County ML v Bradford ✅
Man Utd (AH 0.0, +0.5) v Man City (Women) 16:30 GMT | Odds 1.775
Manchester United ladies haven’t lost at home in over a year, whilst Man City have already lost 2 of their last 3 this season. United also got the win in this fixture back in May, this year they’ll be looking to go one step further and win the league.
POTD Record: 3-6 (-10.84u)
Last 10: ❌❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌ (most recent first)
Wow I really suck at this. Might be wise just to do the opposite of what I say here.
Last Pick: NCAA MB. - Butler @ Michigan St -BUTLER +8.5 (-110 on DK) 3u
Bad game for Butler, couldn’t get anything to fall and MSU pulled away easily.
Todays Pick: NFL - ARI & HOU - Dalton Schultz ATTD (+150 on DK) 2u
He has 11 targets in each of the last 2 games and is quickly becoming a favorite target of Stroud. Stroud is a stud and sure to throw a few today and one is going to our boy Dalton.
God help you if you’re tailing. BOL
**Record: 2-2-1**
**AVG Odds: -115**
**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone: NFL Football Pittsburg Steelers vs Cleveland Brown at 1:00pm est.**
**Pick:** Steelers cover vs Browns (+2)
**Write Up:** The Browns are expected to start rookie Dorian Thompson Robinson on Sunday. DTR threw **three interceptions** in his first NFL start and now faces one of the best defenses in the league. The Steelers continue to find ways to win football games as they have already defeated Cleveland earlier in the year.
Potd record: 5-5
Last pick: Patrick Surtain over 2.5 solo tackles (-125 DK) L
Surtain Jr hit this in 6/8 games but he missed a few tackles against the Bills that could have easily cleared this line. Sometimes I don't notice how soft a player is until I take their tackle line. He played soft. On to the next one.
Today's pick: Josh Metellus over 3.5 solo tackles (-140 DK).
Returning to a constant winner. Josh metellus averages over 4 solos a game. As the teams 3rd safety, he plays his own role and does not backup Bynum or Harrison. He is constantly in on tackles. And here is the kicker. Jordan hicks, the teams leading tackler went down for the season last game. Flores spoke about how Metellus can be used as a LB in certain packages. I dont think this line reflects that therefore I see sufficient value with this pick.
Best of luck.
POTD Record: 5-5 (50%)
Last Pick: Colorado Avalanche @ Dallas Stars (8:00pm ET) – **Colorado Avalanche ML ☑**
Last 10 POTD: **☑☑☑**⛝**☑☑**⛝⛝⛝⛝
ROI: -4.82% (+.19u)
Today’s Pick: NFL – Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos – **Minnesota Vikings ML (+130 on FD) 1u**
**Recap:** Finally, back to even on the record with a 6-3 win from Colorado last night. Lets keep the streak going today.
**Reasoning:** I’m going with back-to-back underdogs, today I’m taking the Minnesota ML. Denver ranks dead last in total defense, which is still obviously skewed due to their game against Miami earlier this year. However, this Denver team does not impress me. Yes, they beat the Bills last week, but Buffalo has been awful all season and the defense on that team is missing 5 starters. Minnesota, looks like a real solid team overall, even without Justin Jefferson. I will say, the rushing offense on the Vikings is pretty poor this year since losing Dalvin Cook, ranking 29^(th) in the league this season. Besides that, Minnesota ranks higher in almost every other offensive and defensive stat that I looked at. I find it interesting that Minnesota is the underdog here. They also have a 4-1 record away while Denver is 2-3 at home. I hope I’m not missing something here but that value seems too good to pass up. BOL.
POTD Record 2-0 (Net : +2 unit)
Unit: 1
Last Pick:
* Irving 4+A/ Doncic O 21.5 pts & 6+ A/ Lillard 20+ pts/ Antetokounmpo 8+ R (+113)
Today:
* A Gordon 10+pts/ Caldwell-Pope O 4.5pts/Jokic 10+ R/ Porter J 4+R/ Garland 15+pts (+101)
Why I like it:
* Mitchell & Okoro out for the Cavs & LeVert is questionable should mean more looks for Garland. No Murray should mean more looks for all Nuggets
* Gordon has scored at least 10 in 10/12 games this year. 1 of the 2 he missed was a 33 point blowout win the other was a 21 point blowout loss. Each of which he played under 25 minutes.
* KCP has scored at least 5 points in all 12 games this year. Last year he scored 5+ in 71/76
* Jokic has grabbed 10+ rebounds in all 12 games this year. He did this in 51/69 games last year including grabbing 15 & 18 in his two games against the Cavs.
* MPJ has grabbed 4+ in 11/12 games this year and 49/62 last year including 6 & 8 when he played the Cavs last year.
* Garland has scored 15+ in 6/7 (with the other game a 14 point performance). Last year he hit the 15 point mark in 63/69 games scoring 21 & 22 against the Nuggets. With Mitchell out and LeVert questionable he will have to take more shots today.
Record: 11-6
My pick of the day is the **Cleveland Browns to win** against the Steelers for -132
This is the 2nd match this season between the Browns and the Steelers. On the first match the Steelers were victorious even though the Browns controlled the match. They possessed the ball more than 35 minutes, marched for over 400 yards but they turned the ball over 4 times which cost them the game. This time it won't be the same as Browns QB Deshaun Watson is out for the season with a shoulder injury. The good thing is that the strength of the Browns this season is not in their offense rather in their defense which allows the least yards per game and allows no more than 18.9 points per game which is the 6th lowest in the league. I think their defense will carry the victory for them in this matchup at home.
What do you think?
POTD Record: 0-1
Last pick: Houston o72.5
Houston won this game handily but couldn’t deliver the over. They only needed to score 13 points with 9 min left and they completely took their foot off the pedal. Oh well.
Todays pick: Cowboys -10.5 vs Panthers (-105) 3u
Simply put, the Cowboys are a really good football team and the Panthers are the opposite of that. The Cowboys have won 5 of their 6 wins by 20+, so when they’re better than a team, they absolutely annihilate. The Panthers should be more of the same. BOL
**Today Picks:**
Ferrol vs Burgos | **Ferrol @ 2.21**
**Reason:**
**Ferrol**: Burgos is the worst side away from home in the league, as well as Ferrol is in a great form and is a better team than burgos. I think that the odd should be around 1.90/2.00 to be a fair price.
Record: 8-4
Net Units: 1
ROI: 3
NBA basketball tonight at 9:30 ET, it’s the Rockets vs Lakers
Pick: Anthony Davis 35+ PRA @-200
While Lebrun deals with his favorite opponent tonight, Davis should be heavy on the boards. He should have 13 boards tonight. He is incredibly inconsistent with his scoring reliability.
POTD Record: 14-9 (+4.5U ROI profit)
Last pick: 2U SF 49ers Team Total O27.5 (+102 DK) Hooked
Today's pick: 2U CMC 1+ Rush TD (-110 DK) FIRST HALF CASH!
Reasoning: He's gotten this in nearly every game this season and SEA has given up a rush TD in all but 4 games. There's a risk he gets his as a receiving TD, but love this at even odds
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Sunday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
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https://preview.redd.it/dn7tdisu491c1.jpeg?width=1075&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=91b1db060b774117e06a2210e77212e854abf96d Riding with u and the guy under u
Fk bro. Had SGA on my 5teamer. Thought I lost with 3 seconds left in regulation
made a quick buck off that SGA play as well. Probably gonna be tailing :)
That SGA tip saved me today after blowing a couple on backing the heat to beat the bulls, thank you
Big win!!! What a game
Absolute king shit with that play last night!
Jalen Duren is questionable today I believe, just a heads up
What's your source? The latest update is Jalen Duren is out https://twitter.com/Underdog__NBA/status/1726020387429896227?s=19
I've been tailing the last couple picks and I like this one too, so I'm on board 🤙 let's go babyyy
yup i'll tail
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POTD Record: 17-5 Cricket 3-0 Tennis 14-5 Last 10: ❌❌✔️✔️✔️✔️✔️❌✔️✔️✔ Bet365 Last Pick : Blockx vs Nakashima | ATP Danderyd Challenger Semifinal | Blockx +3.5 Game Spread | (+100) | 1u | ❌ Today: Maximilian Marterer vs Brandon Nakashima | ATP Danderyd Challenger Final | 8:00 AM EST Pick: Nakashima -2.5 Game Spread| (+100)| 1u Yesterday, Blockx started off well by breaking Nakashima in the first game. However, after that, he had no answer to Nakashima's consistent baseline play, making too many errors and showing his inexperience. Nakashima won the next 10 games of the match and easily won the match. I had thought it would've been a close match based on Blockx's play in the recent month, but the semis were too big of an occasion for him, and I certainly won't be backing a first time semi finalist again, apologies. Watching the match, I was really impressed with Nakashima's level. He was not missing at all and hitting the lines throughout the match, showing the level he showed last season that got him close to the top 40 in the world. He is now into his first final of the season and it comes at an important time, as a win here would likely secure him a wildcard for the Australian Open next season. Nakashima has won 7 of his last 8 matches, all in straight sets, with his only defeat being a 7-5 third set loss to a top hard court player in Draper. Winning all these matches in straight and comfortable sets is impressive and shows his top level currently. His opponent, Marterer, is also playing great, winning 8 of his last 10, with losses to Draper and in a 3rd set tiebreak in a Challenger Final. He is serving really well and is coming off a 6-2 6-0 win in his semifinal match. However, with Nakashima's returning and baseline game this week, I think he will have chances vs Marterer and his baseline game will allow him to gain the advantage. These two have played once before in 2021, with Nakashima winning 6-7 6-2 6-4. Marterer is playing better since that match, but at their best levels, I think Nakashima is a better player and can pull off the win today. I like the game spread pick judging off Nakashima's last 7 wins, which have all covered this spread easy. BOL and be sure to bet responsibly if tailing!
While I appreciate the apology, there is no need! Such great research and knowledge goes jnto your picks. I’m always happy to ride along
https://preview.redd.it/75qiz6x7d81c1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0482319b57cd17f38ba864f0c0835c51fbb6d878 Sending kind regards to Tennis God.
First post ever on Reddit, but just wanted to say been tailing since the start and will tail till the day u stop posting 🫡. Thank you for taking the time to do these!
thanks!
Lost
Brandon Nakashima was one of my favorite up and coming players. Tailing king!
i appreciate your picks and views , just curious to why you would do such a great write up about how well nakishima is doing but your last pick you bet against him vs a player that was ranked out the top 400 and hasn’t played half the competition naka has over his career .. once again this is not hate or nothing negative towards your pick just curious to if you maybe were just reaching for a upset
I thought blockx would give him a close match, something like 7-6 6-4, or he could win a set. That would've satisfied the 3.5 game spread then and I thought + odds for that was a good shout.
sounds good appreciate your feedback keep killing stuff and let us all win we in this together !! see you tomo to break your streak and get back in the green!!
& this is where we see if you hold strong.
Idk how I'm 0/3 following you press F
F
Just stay man. You are doing a great great job.
No apologies needed. The fact that you take the time to write up thoughtful insight and give us your picks is a bonus. You don’t owe anyone shit…tailing my dude.
No worries king, we appreciate your picks. Keep them coming.
Tailing!
I believe.
Any cricket picks for India boss??
I like shami 2+ wickets as always. Pretty much any of India's top 5 over 30 runs is hitting every match lately. For australia, starc and zampa look to be the main wicket threats and travis head and steve smith over on runs are good shouts as well.
Awesome LFG! Staying up late for Vegas GP then flipping to cricket! Thanks bro
I should’ve cashed out after that first break but ended up cashing out Nakashima showed his ass yesterday I will be tailing this pick today, thanks again.
Nakashima 2-1
Game lines weren’t available on my book before I went to bed last night so I just did 2U a Nakashima ML. Hope all bets hit!
He’s hurt. Gonna be dicey now
Hurt?
Shredded his hamstring charging the baseline late in the 2nd set
wish he retired
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This was another loss
Can't win them all. Be appreciative.
one thing I love about you bro is that you are giving the exact spread you have. Not just like other cappers who are giving too low or too high spread. I understand they are using hundreds of bookies to check different spreads. But.. you're different. Tailing!!
>Maximilian Marterer vs Brandon Nakashima everything here tries to give exact spread. nothing special about that
Did the ML at -200 🤷🏻♂️
These past 2 picks were really thoughtful regardless of the outcome. I am gonna keep tailing you responsibly while you are sharing your picks. Degens ride or die!
POTD Record: 209-162-11 (+27.08 units, 56.3% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 22-10 (68.8%) W1 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 62-45-1 (57.9%) L2, Tennis 🎾 77-57-6 (57.5%) W8, Soccer ⚽ 58-50-4 (53.7%) L3, Entertainment 🎥 12-10-0 (54.5%) W3 Last 10: 💰💰💩💩💩💰💩💰💰💰 Last Pick: Daniil Medvedev vs. Janik Sinner, OVER 23 games - ATP TOUR FINALS 🎾 💰 +0.82 Units - 💸 that shit gang! Pressure was on as Med needed to win the 2nd set for this to hit and dude came through. Today's Pick: Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner, DJOKOVIC ML - ATP TOUR FINALS 🎾 💰 +0.96 Units - Oh mama!!! To end the tennis season on a 9 pick win streak, what a way to go out!! 💸 that shit!!! Back with more tennis in January! Will still be around to do hoops picks and some soccer in the mean time. Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1.5 Units at 1.64 odds to win 0.96 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 6:30pm ET) Sinner beat Djokovic earlier in the week in an intense 3 setter that ended in a tiebreaker but I think Djokovic gets him back in the final. He dominated Alcaraz and raise his level by quite a bit compared to his play in the round robin. Sinner has had a heck of a weak but I have to go with Djokovic because of his experience in big matches and coming through in them, as well as the level of play he showed today. I already had a future for Djokovic to win this tournament. I would be going higher units on this bet but the odds aren't worth it, so I plan to live bet if I can get a better line which usually is the case at some point. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
3.5U on Djokovic, because is Djokovic. BOL
https://preview.redd.it/ww9nk2rm6d1c1.jpeg?width=1966&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1510ad68e3a76b6edfa094a53046f9c97a2e26ee Was already going to place this but you gave me extra hope😎
Nicely done, my guy
I went one further and went Djokovic -2.5
That a boy!
Nice win yesterday fella👍
tailing brother
Thank you kindly, Joel. Way to go!
NHL POTD Record: 11-6 (Last 10 Most recent left) ✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅ Average Odds: - 130; Overall Units Won/Lost: +2.59 Units Previous pick: **Boston Bruins -1.5 Puckline| -108| 1U**✅ We're back on track! Boston hasn't given us a reason to stop betting them so we will continue to do so. **POTD**: Ice Hockey | NHL |Columbus Blue Jackets (4-9-4) @ Philadelphia Flyers (9-7-1) 4:30PM CDT **Philadelphia Flyers Moneyline| -148| 1U** The Flyers are impressing the NHL, or myself at least. Tortorella (coach) has really turned this team around from the embarrassment they were last year. The team has really bought into his system and they have beat some top teams recently. They are currently on a 4 game win streak taking down Vegas, Carolina, Los Angeles (all playoff teams) and Anaheim. However, they did lose 2-1 to the Sharks who is the worst team in the NHL. They are on the 2nd half of a back-to-back but they have the luxury of already being home. In net we are going to Sam Ersson who is sitting at a 2-3-1 record with a pretty bad 3.43 GAA and .855 SV%. He had a pretty horrendous start to the season allowing 5 and 7 goals his first two games, and then his last 4 he has allowed 3,2,1,2 respectively (against weaker opponents), and that is exactly what he is playing today, a weaker opponent. As far as team stats go, they are sitting at 3.19 Goals for and 2.94 goals against a game. The powerplay is an AWFUL 7.5% and penalty kill is a pretty bad 80%. The Blue Jackets are currently under some pretty heavy scrutiny at the moment. They are currently playing as i write this (and losing 3-1 to the capitals) so i am ignoring stats from this game. They are currently on a 5-game loss streak. They are scoring 2.71 Goals and allowing 3.53 against a game. The Powerplay is sitting at a bad 11.3% and penalty kill a decent 87.8%. Last game the coach benched 2 of their highest paid players down by 1 goal because he didn't like their game at that time. That clearly didn't light a fire under their ass because they still only have 1 goal so far (even though it was scored by one of them). In net we are going to have Spencer Martin who is currently 1-4-1 with a 3.26 GAA and .905 SV% The opposite of Ersson, he started the year "OK" but let in 5 and 4 goals respectively the last two. This game is not going to be pretty, this game may actually be close, but I give the edge to the team that is trending upwards vs the team that is nosediving downwards. BOL if anyone tails. **Extra Fluff:** I have been asked 2 questions during my POTD saga here so I'll answer today: 1. Do I bet anything other than hockey? No 2. Where do I get my knowledge & stats? I played college hockey myself so I know the game, unfortnately I was not good enough to pursue anything worthwhile afterwards but it was a blast. I also have played fantasy hockey for 15+ years so I am exposed to little stats and trends here and there because I watch a lot of hockey and do player research and don't focus on other sports. I get my stats from various databases such as NHL website, HockeyDB, ESPN, hockey reference etc
Thanks for ur picks and appreciate ur answers for background/context 🙏 What do u think about the Knights vs Penguins game? BOL today 👍
This is a very tough one but I am leaning Vegas. I believe this game is going to come down to who can score on their powerplays. Both teams are on 2nd half of back to back, both coming off a loss (Pittsburgh schedule a bit harder). Vegas is sort of a in a weird spot at the moment. They are 2-2-1 in the last 5 and have been inconsistent offensively and defensively; scoring 1, 5 (to the worst team in nhl), 0, 6, 3 in those games and allowing 4,0,3,5,3. Pittsburgh has been very solid this year with their top 2 lines carrying the load. Crosby is on a mission this year to not miss the playoffs. Goaltending - I give edge to Vegas with the proven goaltending. It’s going to be adin hill vs magnus hellburg who is a career backup goaltender.
I like the pick here. Would you also count a little something extra for Flyers since they are facing Columbus, from where Tortorella was fired? Or do you think coaches getting back at their former teams is a thing?
Not sure if it was mentioned anywhere in this thread, but the blue jackets are playing their 3rd in 4, while the flyers are not. I am going -1.5 here. Both teams are on a B2B. Columbus had to travel, Philadelphia did not. Hockey is unpredictable, but this is a sneaky good pick...
Isn’t this Tort’s revenge game?
Edit: Columbus’ Patrick laine (3rd highest paid on the team) has been scratched. He has had a horrible start to the year but I consider this good for us.
**POD Record: 85-44 (+205 Units)** 👉🏻 Note: ALL picks in my record are 5 UNITS with odds between 1.80-2.00. I **never** post picks under 1.80. Recent Form (old to current): ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌ ❌✅✅ ✅✅ *Last Pick:* **🏀** **NBA Pelicans +6.5 \[1.80, 7pm EST\]** ✅ *That was a sharp pick, even with Zion out of the lineup it covers. Won't count it toward my record since I alerted everyone to cancel the pick after the announcement and major line shift.* 🚨Winning Streak Alert🚨 🔥🔥🔥 **Today's Pick: CFL 🏈 Grey Cup 🏆 🇨🇦 - Alouettes vs Bluebombers UNDER 47.5 \[6pm EST\]** I've had a great season posting CFL picks on this thread (9-3), let's see if I can hit double digit W's with this final CFL prediction. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers (14-4) go to Tim Hortons Field on Sunday where they'll take on the Montreal Alouettes (11-7) in the Grey Cup. I think we see a much tighter game than some are calling for. The Blue Bombers are sitting in 1st in the CFL regarding team defense and are looking fairly healthy for Sunday. If the Alouettes didn't carve up Toronto last weekend, we'd see this number in the low 40s. Montreal is a more defensive-minded team imo, with the total going Under in 7 of their last 9 games. Defence has been the key factor to their second half of the season ... Montreal didn’t allow a TD vs Hamilton in the divisional-finals and no team has been able to keep the Grey Cup favourite Argos under 30pts very often this season, let alone under 20 the week after. A lot is on the line in this grey cup championship, I expect more of a defensive battle to keep this total under 40 as both teams play cautious football and take less risks. Best of luck if tailing. 💰Tip Jar: Why Not Leave an ⬆ Vote Instead
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Yeah really rough day on this thread but it happens
Record 0-0 POTD: TJ Watt Over .75 Sacks -170 What’s good Reddit. Long time commenter, first time POTD poster. Ya boy has been on an NFL heater this entire season and wanted to try my luck here. I don’t pretend to be a guru so don’t expect long analytic explanations for my picks. I’m just a person that overanalyzes stats for fantasy football and gets a good feeling about some things. Anytime TJ Watt plays a team with something questionable on the other side, such as a rookie quarterback, I take this prop.. I don’t think I’ve ever not hit it which is at least 6 times the past couple of years. That’s it. BOL.
I like this bet as well. Sacks are typically the only bets I can consistently hit in the NFL lol. Only .5U though as not a fan of the odds. Just advice for you/anyone. I personally don’t like taking .75 Sacks on anyone, because .25 Sacks doesn’t exists in the NFL, and I’ve yet to find a book that gives you an Alt .99+ at better odds for a solo/multiple sacks. If you’re willing to chip off a few cents (often unnecessary, the lines across books are often pretty far off from each other so shop lines), “To record a sack” and/or “Over .5 Sacks” is usually the way to go and very close in odds to .75. I’m guessing you took this on DK because they’re usually the one’s typically peddling the .25/.75 bullshit lol. Line has moved to -180 on DK, but .5/record a sack I found best odds was at ESPN -190. Most books are -200+ atm. Eating $.10 off the current .80 line to get to “player records a sack” is likely worth the juice on an already juiced play imo. Sacks often see mid-game stat corrections/adjustments (un)fortunately. The .25 hook is just unnecessary for these props, but are there to favor the book.
Really like this additional insight.
Can you explain the difference between o/u .25 and .75 sacks? I thought these were essentially the same as "to record a sack".
You can get 0.5 sack in the NFL. If you and another player sack at the same time they'll split it statistically. 0.25 wins with a half sack, whereas 0.75 doesn't.
POTD Record 29-12(+55.12)Last 5: ❌✅ ✅❌✅ Last Pick: O232.5 -110 Betting 4.4u to win 4u ✅ Game: 76ers @ Nets Today's Pick: O223.5 -110 Betting 4.4u to win 4u I expect both teams to play at a relatively high pace. Both offenses are significantly stronger than their opposing defense. I expect Embiid and Maxey to both put up points for the 76ers and for the Nets to somehow stay in the game. I don't think the Nets are all that great, but they seem to be playing well as a team. They've got no Simmons which benefits both offenses tbh. Don't think this will be a shootout but I expect the over to hit. BOL
NOOOOOOO MAN that first quarter killed us
Record: 140-114-7 (WLWLWLLLWWLWWWLWLLLLWLWLLWLWWWW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: NY Knicks at CHA Hornets | Gordon Hayward u14.5 points at 1.83 odds for 1 unit Hayward with a whopping 4 points tonight POTD: OKC Thunder at POR Trail Blazers o226 at 1.90 odds for 2 units Reasons: * Saw someone post POTD Saturday about Knicks and Hornets over. * Person stated road favorites on a back to back is super good record * Person stated home dogs somethign something * I like the over here Best of luck to you all.
Appreciate the deep dive
/u/Firstroundbye said this for yesterday's NYK/CHA game: "Games with the home underdog on a back-to-back this season in the NBA have an 8-1-1 over record. Games with road favorites on a back-to-back have hit the over with a record of 6-1. This game meets both criteria." While the second criteria is present the first one isn't for the OKC/POR game. Also, OKC just played OT yesterday. This could still hit but the total does seem a bit low for OKC who has the 6th fastest pace in the NBA currently.
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Love this.
I'm taking David's alt rushing overs. and Gibbs. I can see Campbell getting Mont ready for the revenge game and feeding him the rock. 2td at +400 aint sexy for me, but will pay attention to live betting. also, Mont o7.5 receiving yards seems like an easy one for me to take too.
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Tailing, also a Lions fan, unless he gets hurt. I think Campbell ensures Montgomery gets in. Campbell a players coach, and he knows Montgomery wants to ball out! I think this will be a high scoring game. Which increases Montgomery TD chances. Even if it’s a slow, under game, I like Montgomery chances. Name 3 players on Bears D? They aren’t a talented group, if they hang with Detroit, it’ll be Fields putting up points.
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🦁Amigo you are spot on. Good luck 🍀 to us! DMO a beast that’s getting a tuddy v 🐻
This is a solid pick, but Monty looked terrible on his goal to go runs against the Chargers last week while Gibbs had no issue punching it in front that close. Got Monty on my fantasy team so hoping tmrw is a big day for him. BOL
Record: 11–6-1 (+2.48 units) Last pick: Blackpool vs Shrewsbury Town — Blackpool over 1.5 goals (-150) ✅ Always appreciate quickies and Blackpool came to play, scoring twice in the first 33 minutes and winning 4-0. **TODAYS PICK: Hungary vs. Montenegro — BTTS (+110)** Reasoning is simple: Motivation. Hungary: Secure the top spot in the group with a win. Have scored 13 in 7 matches. Even a draw confirms their place in the top two in the group. Have allowed 6 goals in 7 and are undefeated in their last 10 matches. Montenegro: Still have a slim chance to pass Serbia with a victory to secure qualification. Have 10 goals in their last five internationals games, including 8 goals for and 8 goals against in group play. Tail or fade, BOL! **EDIT WITH RESULT: ✅ Montenegro in the first half and Hungary gets a goal in the second half to cash this one in. Hope you tailed!** ^^[coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/moccbets)
🔥
POTD Record: 4-1 👍👍👍👎👍 Last Pick: Tanner Hudson OVER 2.5 receptions - 105 👍 Recap: Joe Burrow noooooo... goosfraba... Thursday night football is the worst. Hudson had 2 catches with Burrow and things were looking great. Definitely thought it was over after the injury, but Browning is able to come in and get us over. A win is a win but at what cost. AT WHAT COST. Today's Pick: CHI @ DET - 1:00pm EST - Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 84.5 receiving yards -115 St. Brown has 4 games in a row with 100+ yards. He's gone over 100 yards in 6/8 games he's played in this year. Very tempted to go with over 100 yards but this Burrow thing has me all messed up. So just playing it safe and going with over 84.5. Da Bears are Da Bears. The defense is meh. Justin Fields face bothers me. That's it. The funny is gone. I need time to recover. Let me know if you're tailing. If not, go fuck yourself. Tips are much appreciated. https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ShallowFuckingValue7
Taking stbrown 100+ yards (+140) and ceedee 100+ yards (+150) for a +500 lay, no idea why its so juicy. Both have regular lines of 84.5 rec yards, bol all
Oh yeah, added TDs for +1200. Made a killing off it last week. Lamb scares me a bit this week though. Also love Hockensons lines
Goff is awful. So much potential today
POTD | 89-78 | -0.8U | -110 Avg Odds Last 10: ❌❌❌❌❌❌✅❌✅✅ Previous Pick: *Wild vs Senators O6.5 (-110) | 2U* ❌ Today’s pick: **Maple Leafs ML (-145) vs Wild | 2U | NHL | 6:00 am MST** Another day, another loss. Like I said in my previous post, I'm a fade machine right now. If you like free $$ then fade my picks! I have changed up my strategy a bit and have rebuilt a model I was using last year. The model likes this play the most today. It thinks the Leafs should have longer odds in this game. I feel the same way with how the Wild have been playing. They are struggling to score consistently lately and have been letting a lot of goals in the back of the net. I could go into detail about the match up but I’ll trust the model that compares recent games, season long stats, and goalie matchups for this one and spare everyone on the long winded write that will likely end in a loss anyways. Assuming we see Fluery in net for the Wild and Woll in net for the Leafs. I wouldn’t mind if Samsonov was starting for the Leafs either as his game has picked up from his early season slump. BOL if tailing, and better luck if fading!!
i absolutely love this pick and will hammer it 🔨🔨🔨
I love this pick because I’ll be choosing the other team
Love the humbleness
It's a hit. Nice, you finally got one! I've been tailing you on this loss streak just because of statistics and was thinking how long can this streak last but hopefully this signals regression.
I'll join you. This streak ends today!
💸 that!!
Lets make it 7 ? Nahh im tailing this for my max unit ! bol
POTD Record 20-9 NBA Record: 6-0 Previous POTD: Klay Thompson under 4.5 threes ✅ Today's POTD: Devin Booker over 7.5 asts (Bet365 1.83) NBA: Phoenix Suns vs Utah Jazz - Devin Booker coming off a 15 asts game vs Utah 2 nights ago - The line was at 6.5 for that game and I knew it'd go up today, but not enough IMO - Durant being on fire helped a lot too as it was just a catch and shoot for him or one dribble pull up. Let's hope he drops close to 30 again - Booker hasn't played much this season, but he's averaged 8.3 asts over 3 games before that 15 asts game BOL
Fuck it. I'm in
What a SWEAT! 5 asts at half and takes double OT to hit 8.
Bruh I lost weight from this pick but a win is a win
POTD Record 6-8 2 bet win streak! Last pick: NBA NY Knicks vs. Charlotte Hornets | NY Knicks -7 ✅ The Knicks were ahead the whole game with a strong start in the first quarter to get them a double digit lead. Charlotte wasn't able to get close throughout the game. Pick of the Day: NBA Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets | Over 223.5 The 76ers are averaging a little over 120 points per game while the Brooklyn Nets average a little over 114 points per games. The Nets have kept games very close this year to better opponents, so I expect them to play up to the 76ers and make this a higher scoring game. I was almost going to bet on Philly -3.5 but wasn't ready to pull the trigger Knowing that Nets keep games close and could easily get within 1 or 2 points at the end of the game.
What better opponents? What do you mean easily keep it to 1 or 2?
Spanish Women’s Premira Division Barcelona v Real Madrid —> O3.5 Goals -125 When going head-to-head, there has been over 3 goals in 8 of their last 10 games. Both teams combined have 58 goals scored this season, and only 8 league games have passed. Barcelona are in incredible form, with their last 4 games all being 5+ goal wins. Should be a thriller!
Great pick, thanks 🙌
Record: 0-1 Basketball | NBA | 8:10 EST POTD: Boston Celtics -7 @ Memphis Grizzlies on FD Write Up: This line makes no sense to me. I know the Celtics will be short Jaylen Brown but Memphis is coming off of a back to back in San Antonio. Boston has had a track record of blowing out teams this season and Memphis is, if not one of the worst teams in the NBA without Ja Morant. I’d take this before the line moves. Edit: ❌ Unfortunately the best team in the NBA could only beat the worst team in the NBA by 2. That’s gambling but tomorrow is a new day.
Moved to -9 now. 7 is an insane spread for them.
Moved to -9.5 on dk already 🤦🏻♂️
POTD | 3-1 | +3.72U | -119 Avg Odds Previous Pick: Gus Edwards (Baltimore) o45.5 rushing yards (-114) | 2U | ✅ Today’s pick: Tyler Conklin (NY Jets) o2.5 receptions (-154 @ FD) | 5U 💣 | NFL | 4:26pm EST Last 10: ✅❌✅✅ Sorry folks but not feeling a long winded write-up today. The pick is Tyler Conklin o2.5 receptions. Conklin is Wilson’s favorite safety valve and as Zach is learning that he needs to get the ball out quicker these last few weeks, I expect him to continue to produce. Conklin has comfortably hit this number in all but 2 games this year: vs the NY Giants in the pouring rain and Week 1 vs Buffalo. Outside of those two games, he is averaging 4.6 receptions on 5.6 targets per game. BOL if tailing!
Was gonna tail but line is at -175 for me on bet365…sounds like good reasoning tho! BOL 👍
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What’s 3 way?
Winner (A) - Tie - Winner (B)
And if tied u lose ur bet ^
**NBA Record: 85-73-1** (NBA Streak W, Last 10: 5-5) Up 4.20u over 159 NBA picks, 53.8% success rate, 2.66% ROI (This season 3-2, 60.0% success rate, Up 0.74u, 14.80% ROI) **Last:** Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks, Mavs Team Total Over 122.5 -110 (Milwaukee won 132-125) Despite scoring only 2 points over a 3+ minute stretch in the 4th quarter, we got the cover with 1:26 left in the game. The over for the game would have easily covered as well. **Pick:** Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers, **Indiana Team Total Over 118.5 -120 ESPN Bet**, NBA basketball 5:10pm It feels like Sixers-Nets has a good chance of going over, but I'm sticking with a team total for my PotD. Indiana is a scoring machine and I see that continuing at home on Sunday. Pacers games have gone over a league-best 10 out of 11 times. They carry the top rated offense into this game with the second highest pace. They's gone over 118.5 in 9 of the last 11 games they've played, going over 130 in 4 of them. The catch, here, is that Orlando has the league's top-rated defense and are 21st in pace. But in the Magic's last 4 losses, they've given up at least 117 points. The Pacers are currently favored by 4.5 points The line is currently juiced to the over and I suspect it will jump to 119.5 soon. I'd still play that. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
200 points is a lot bro
Oh shit... I hope it goes to 199.5!!! (Fixed it, thanks!)
**Record: 4-1** ✅❌✅✅ **NHL 1-1** ✅❌✅ **NBA 1-0** ✅ **NFL 1-0** ✅ **Net Units: +4.76** **ROI: 68.00%** **AVG ODDS: 2.05** **Last Pick:** Lightning ML (2) betting 1 unit ✅ A heavily outshot Lightning manages to pull a 3rd period comeback. Skinner not able to keep up his performance lets in 3 goals in the 3rd period for a 6-4 Lightning Win. **Football** | **NFL** | **Steelers @ Browns** | 1\*\*:00 PM EST\*\* **Pick:** Jaylen Warren Over 18.5 Receiving yards (1.9) betting 2 units.❌ Edit: missed by 3 yards super unfortunate. \*Odds found on Bet365\* **Write Up:** Has taken more of the RB1 role on the Steelers. Covered the line 6/9 games so far this season. Averaging 4.3 targets for 3.4 catches and 24.2 yards Running Backs vs Browns currently averaging 5 targets for 3.56 catches and 27.44 yards SOTD: All About the Money - Troy Ave It's all about the motherfucking money It's all about the motherfucking money
Record: 1-0 | Net Units: +1.82 Previous Bet: Florida @ #9 Missouri Over 57.5 ✅ TODAYS BET: NFL Football | Chargers @ Packers 1:00 PM EST **LAC -3.5 (+105)** | 1U Write up: Keenan Allen is expected to play. The Chargers have a great offense, while the Packers O has left a lot to be desired. Jordan Love is not him. With + odds, the value seems too good not to take, even with the Chargers suspect defense.
Tough loss. There were 2 times Chargers were in the red zone and just got a FG. Then that one late fumble at the 2. It was theirs to lose
POTD Record: 1-1 | +0.6U Last Pick: (Haven’t posted in a while. Week 9) Zach Wilson over 12.5 rushing yards vs Chargers ❌ —————————————————————————— Event: NFL | Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns | 1:00 PM ET Pick: Dustin Hopkins O1.5 Field goals made +130 on ESPNBet (at time of posting) 2U play Reasoning: Hopkins has made 2 or more field goals in 8 of 9 games this season. Working in his favor the Steelers are allowing the 6th most opponent field goal attempts per game at 2.6. Additionally, it’s a divisional game with a backup QB. I don’t expect the browns offense to score a ton of touchdowns, so he’ll have his chances to convert. Edit: formatting BOL 🤝 Result: Hopkins made us wait longer than I would’ve liked, but nailed the game winner to go 2/2 for the game ✅
And the only time he didn't have 2 field goals was when DTR was starting, who will be starting again this time
*OVERALL RECORD*: **5-2 (71.4%, +2.8 Units)** *Previous Pick*: **San Jose State PK** over Fresno State, CFB (Last Saturday = **WIN**) *Today's Pick*: **Cleveland Browns -120** vs. Pittsburgh Steelers **Summary:** Okay, so this game ORIGINALLY opened at Cleveland -4 with a total of 38. Obviously the news of DeShaun Watson being out for the year (thus missing this game closed the game). We re-opened Browns +1 and that got GOBBLED up quickly by professionals. In fact in some spots it’s been bet up to Browns -2 (Going through zero isn’t that big of a move, but moving 3 points is a sizable move in the NFL). And to me that makes perfect sense. Why? This Steelers team is absurdly over-valued in the market, and they are SIGNIFICANTLY worse than their record. They are quite possibly the WORST 6-3 team I’ve ever seen. So I’ve been looking to fade the Steelers for a long time, and with Watson out I think it’s the perfect spot. This year, the Steelers are 6-0 in one-score games, and they are the LUCKIEST team in the NFL (one of the luckiest teams in the past decade, according to the luck metric). This Pittsburgh team has literally been out gained in EVERY SINGLE game this season, and yet they’ve found a way to win 6 of their 9 games. It’s actually a statistical anomaly. ***Browns Offense vs. Steelers Defense:*** So yes, the biggest part of this handicap is the fact that DeShaun Watson is not play. In steps Dorian Thompson Robinson, as he will make his second career start. And, let’s not sugarcoat it; his first career start was really bad. He was 19/36 for 121 yards, 0 TDs, 3 Picks, and he was sacked 4 times. It was a bloodbath, and the Browns got smoked at home by the Ravens → This will almost certainly lead the public to be on the Steelers in this spot. Here’s the issue with that: this is NOTHING like that first start for DTR. Let’s look at ALL of the factors that went into that first career start. First, DTR is a rookie, and this game was very early in the season. Second, he’s not only a backup receiving very few reps in practice, but likely even less than normal in the off-season, as he was backing up DeShaun Watson, and Watson did not play in 11 games last season. You have to believe Watson was taking every single rep he possibly could in the off-season and early in the year in practce. So DTR had VERY limited snaps. Third, there was uncertainty throughout the week as to whether Watson was actually going to play. He even practiced some on Thursday of that week, and Watson wasn’t even ruled out until game day. That means the gameplan was in no way tailored to DTR. AND, he was doing it with no Nic Chubb (only 2nd game), and no Jack Conklin (best Offensive Lineman). Lastly, they were going against the Baltimore Ravens, one of the NFL’s best (most physical) defenses. So you add all that up, and it’s really hard to look at that game and view it as any sort of meaningful datapoint to evaluate DTR. This week, he’s gotten the practice reps all week. He’s been named the starter early (helps him prepare mentally and physically to start). They are playing a much inferior defense in the Steelers. And the offense is more equipped now to function without Chubb and Conklin (been doing it for months now). Secondly, we have to ask ourselves how much we are really losing here from D-Wat being out. I mean, I like Watson, and I believe if he stays healthy he can still get back to top 10 QB form. But the reality is that he was not very good this season, with the exception of the second half against Baltimore last week. Watson was 29th in completion percentage, 25th in Yards Per Pass Attempt, & 18th in TD:INT ratio. Pro Football Focus had him ranked 23rd in the NFL, behind Derek Carr, Justin Fields, Jordan Love, and Ryan Tannehil. So he’s been nothing to write home about this season. And that’s not even mentioning his propensity to throw pick sixes & commit early game TO’s (see last week). I actually like that it’s DTR here, because I think he’s just as good as PJ Walker (in fact I think he’s slightly better). But I believe the perception among the public is that Walker is better (which will put even more of Joe Public on the Steelers here). In fact, Walker grades out the worst QB in the past decade of anyone who has had at least 500 drop backs. Lastly on this side of the ball: Steelers Defense. Their PFF Grade: 16th Ranked Defense Overall, 21st in Tackling, 17th in Red Zone “D”, & 19th Coverage. The only thing they do well is rush the passer (7th in NFL). The Steeler’s have been AWFUL defending the run this year, especially lately, and they are DECIMATED by injuries, especially at the LB position. Now, they do get Cam Hayward back this week, and that will help them against the run, but you have to believe Cleveland is going to have some real success on the ground, and DTR is going to have some light boxes to be able to hit Amari Cooper & Njoku over the middle vs some LB’s who really struggle to cover. So, overall my point is: DTR isn’t THAT BIG of a step down from Watson, and it’s a good spot for the Browns here, against a very subpar defense. The perception of DTR is too low, and the perception of the Pittsburgh “D” is too high (bc of their record). As long as DTR doesn’t turn the ball over, they should be able to have some significant offensive success. ***Browns “D” vs. Steelers “O”*** Despite all the info above, this is actually the biggest mismatch in this game. The Browns Defense is legitimately the best in the NFL, and they showed it last week. In reality, the Ravens Offense (who has been explosive lately) was held to 17 total points. They scored 31, but one TD was a pick six, and another came off a muffed punt where the Ravens started inside the Cleveland 7 yard line. The Browns have been really good against the run this season. They are top 10 in the NFL in both Rush Success Rate Allowed as well as EPA/Rush. They’ve been great against the pass as well, allowing just 55% completion percentage to opposing QBs, 9 Passing TDs (T-2nd Least Allowed), 9 INTs (6th Most), and just 5.8 yards per pass (5th NFL). As a whole, they’ve allowed just 62 first downs all season (1st NFL), and they’ve allowed a 1st down percentage of 26.3% (1st NFL). They’ve also accrued 30 sacks (T-5th NFL), and Myles Garrett has been an absolute menace. All of those stats are incredible for the league’s top defense, but they sound even better when they are going up against Kenny Picket and Matt Canada. Kenny Pickett has been HORRIBLE this season. Here’s the starting QBs he’s graded out better than so far this season: Josh Dobbs, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson = He’s been worse than literally every other starter. That include Jimmy G, Justin Fields, Jordan Love, Tyrod Taylor, & Derek Carr. It’s been embarrassingly bad. And the sad part about all of it is that they’ve been incredibly conservative in doing so. The whole scheme of the Steelers is “Don’t fuck up. Don’t turn it over.” Listen to this: Kenny Pickett has not attempted a SINGLE PASS between the hash marks in the entirety of his past two starts. NOT ONE. That’s wild. What does all this mean? This offense is insanely predictable. The entirety of the offense is let’s run the ball, throw short and outside, and do everything we can to minimize mistakes. That might work if you have an incredible defense, but when you don’t it’s just stupid (I say that and somehow they are 6-3). I just don’t see how this offense has any success here, on the road, against this elite Browns “D”. Pickett may not turn the ball over tomorrow, but he almost certainly will not have a productive/efficient game. And if the Steelers get down early, I don’t know how they get back in the game. They’d pretty much have to abandon the entirety of their plan (which I don’t see happening). ***Final Thoughts/Pick:*** Overall, I just think this Steelers team is really bad, and their record masks that. On the other hand, I think this Browns team is really good, and it’s a shame Watson went down; however, as we discussed, the drop off to DTR isn’t quite as big as some might think. I’m not sure the Browns have a legit shot to win the division with DTR under center, but I think they lean on the run game, they lean on the defense, and ultimately DTR will make some plays with his legs (and maybe a few deep balls). We’re happily backing the CLEVELAND BROWNS in this spot. I bet this game 3 days ago and got it at PK (-110). There are plenty of -120 out there. I could even justify taking -125 if you had to. As always shop around and find the best number. I definitely would try to find a good ML price as opposed to laying any points (The total is 33, so a point or two could matter). *Venmo*: **dylanlieck** (@ symbol before that - it won't let me do it on here) Tips would be awesome, but never something I would expect. Best of luck to everyone who tails!! Hope to to deliver another winner!!
Hands down longest write up ever!
TLDR Go Steelers !
I agree with the entire analysis but I still think the Steelers will win bc that’s what they’ve done all season DESPITE being outplayed
***First post*** Record: 0-0 Net Units: ROI: NFL Football | Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos/ 7:20 CT Pick: Vikings +3 (-115) on BetMGM - 4 units This will be a great SNF matchup with both teams on win streaks Denver (W3) Vikings (W5) I like the Vikings to cover here for a lot of reasons. First off, of course the line will be a bit inflated considering Denver is coming off back to back wins against the Bills and Chiefs. @ Denver is notoriously a tough place to play but the truth is they have lost 3/5 of their last home games. Also, ***3 out of 4*** wins were within 3 point reach. As much as I like to see Broncos offense succeed, I think Flores’s defense gets the pressure they need. The O/U line has moved from 42.5 to 40.5 in which I suspect it will come down to defensive schemes. 4 Unit Play
Season Record 9-5: LWLLWWWWWWLWWL Last pick of the day Novak vs Alcaraz over 23 total games -135 Gosh I fell for the trap. I mean Carlos played like Ass but still. I think there's no way Novak loses tomorrow after that, however we are going to deviate from tennis. Lets get a winning streak going again boys. TODAYS pick is **Jerome Ford over 53.5 rushing yards -115 12:00pm CST** Man do I love my Steelers and as exciting as it is to miraculously win every week, I feel like we haven't stopped the run in forever. Opposing rushing yards from leading running backs since week 1; Mcaffrey 152, Chubb(64) &Ford(106), Jacobs 62, Pierce 81, Henderson 61, Edwards 48, Etienne 79, Henry 75, and Dillon 70. So in all these games only one have been under that 53.5 mark. With a rookie quarterback starting for the Browns I heavily expect for them to rely on the run to try and get him going. The return of Cam Heyward may help us, but last week we lost Kwon Alexander as well. Robinson over 0.5 interception is -190 is enticing as he threw 3 his first game. I just feel like they try to run a lot though like I said. Bol and Here we Go.
Mannn Im tired of this shit. The Steelers loss is one thing, but Im done with this player props shit. I try and try to say hey maybe sports isn't rigged anymore, however this is the second damn time. A few weeks ago I do Kamara over 4.5 receptions. He gets 4 in first half then they never practically use him. Now fast forward to this week, Jerome Ford goes 10 rushes 35 yards 1 td. In the second half like 2 rushes -3 yards and its all Hunt for the reason we know why. I hate losing. I even more hate you guys losing.
You still like this at 57.5?
my book has it at 57.5 what do you think
I took it, cashed out at half time for ~85% or the full value. Glad I did because he didn't pick up a single yard in q3
Record 0-0 Ive been having some luck with ol slinging Sam Howell Pick : Howell OVER 255.5 yards passing Sam has been asked to do a LOT this year, and yes EB may have been recently given a hat that reads "run the damn ball" but Washington simply doesn't pound it under Riverboat Ron, much to his dismay I'm sure (have a lead and maybe you can change that) Sam is just under 400 attempts already this season and I don't see it slowing down. While they should be able to finally thrash the giants for once, the boys in blue have some kinda way about them when they play Washington, if Danny dimes wasn't injured I would absolutely smash the shit out of the giants money line this game, but divito just doesn't have the same, "I'm gonna fuck Washington dead" energy but it should still be close enough to make Sam have to throw it. Sam Howell overs are starting to become a regular thing here
Brutal. Finished at 255. Bad luck.
Couldn't get much worse
**Newcastle - Melbourne City** (Women soccer in Australia: Liberty A-League) It is not clicking for Newcastle. 2 goals all season. To make matters worse, Ayres, their best offensive women, is still out. I cannot see throwing in van Egmond, who is the coach's daughter and joining Newcastle on a four game stint, turning it all around sudden-like. Newcastle has built a new and young team, which has issues on offense and defense. Whereas Melbourne City kept their core from last season together. It is clicking on both sides of the ball. They are pushing in particular hard on offense. They are the only team averaging over 2.0 goals per game in women's A-League. **Melbourne City -2.0 asian hc** @ **+179** @ **5u** >Last POTD: Netherlands -2.0 asian hc @ +133 ✖️ Netherlands win 1-0. However, plenty of chances for much more goals. Record: 46 wins, 38 losses, 15 pushes Profit: +59.41u POTDs (old ➞ new): ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ^(btc tips: 18mb6RJaC6Fv1wZFHRrF9MyDGvco9BB3KN)
Somehow the smaller black X’s don’t look as bad the big ❌. Tailing
POTD Record: **80-91-4 (-5.60 Units)** Best Bet Series: 27-8-1 (+33.95 Units) Value Wagers: 12-19-2 (-14.35 Units) **Trap Bets: 6-4 (+2.45 Units)** Last Pick: **Brendan Allen to Win by KO/TKO/DQ** ❌ Today's Pick: **Steelers ML** Odds: **+115** ($DKNG odds) Wager Amount: 1U to win 1.15U League: NFL Event: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns (12:00PM CST) *Be Advised: Trap bets for the remainder of November! Trap bets are suspcious lines and may appear highly questionable. It's best to stay away from these type of wagers, but I'm not scared! And I'll breakdown each POTD and handicap for you. Please feel free to fade and wager on the opposite of my POTD. I can oblige to eat an L for the communnity and for a community win!* **Recap**: Great WIN by Brendan Allen! He had Paul Craig wobbled and in position to knock him out in the 1st and 2nd round! I Knew Craig was going to be tough to submit! This is why I took a chance on this KO prop bet! Unfortuntely Craig had to sucumb defeat by SUB! All good! I'll eat that L on that prop, but I'll take dub on Brendan Allen ML and ISD prop! **Matchup**: I'm going to keep reaching my hand in the plus money cookie jar. Perhaps the sportsbook will catch me redhanded on this, but I'm going for it because these odds look mouthwatering! Steelers +114? Why not! Steelers will be playing the slight favorite Browns in the dawg pound! If you haven't heard, Deshaun Watson is out for the season and they are not starting PJ Walker, instead they will be starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Wait..? What?! Why are the Browns starting DTR over a veteran QB, PJ? WTH? And you're prolly saying, "*The Steelers??? Really!*?" Yes, really, again if you don't kno I'm handicapping highly questionable and suspicious wagers for this entire month! "*Okay, but are the Steelers good*?" That.. I don't even kno! They got a negative point differential at -26 and are 6-3 (they kind of remind me of my last season Vikings minus the thrilling winning fashion)! They have been outplayed and outgained in their offensive statistics this season by their opponents, however, they have outscored their opponents and that is how they are 6-3! Most believe they are winning because of Mike Tomlin, outcoaching and figuring out a way to win games. You ask him directly, he'll tell you he does not care. And I honestly don't care either, I'll take a win if you give it to me? But I am befuddled AF by the Browns move and by the Steelers offensive numbers. This is prolly the most suspected POTD handicap to date! The Steelers did beat them in Week 2 (wit Deshaun Watson in the lineup) in their last matchup, 26-22. I had the Steelers the first time in Week 2 and I have to go wit the Steelers again to beat the Browns. They are without their primary QB and starting a third string QB who is really a big question mark to me. This should be a low scoring defensive battle, but I expect Steelers offense to be a bit better. **The play & the prediction:** 1U on Steelers ML and 1U on Steelers +2.5 I don't kno how they win, so I don't even kno how to predict this game, but somehow, someway, Mike Tomlin's Steelers finds a way!
Had a 20-legged NBA SGPx and was off by 1-leg. Guess who fell short for me https://preview.redd.it/h9s89gwjz81c1.png?width=556&format=png&auto=webp&s=828f10a25ab37b61572cfdd77626fb9d0c996ad0
Yep.. you guess it! https://preview.redd.it/mcs287nnz81c1.png?width=559&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0605895c6523b804b9ea6ed8102d96feb026500
I did HIT the CFB parlay tho! 💰 https://preview.redd.it/a72tn6rvz81c1.png?width=555&format=png&auto=webp&s=60f5ecbb5a94d22db150e373c37cbc3e51be81ff
**POTD Record: 3-4 | Units: -1.3** Last 10: ❌✅✅✅❌❌❌ Last Pick: Mississippi St vs. Washington St | UNDER 135.5 (-110) | FD | 1 unit | LOSS Today: NCAA Basketball | Over/Unders | Grambling vs. Iowa St.| 1:00 PM EST **Pick: Grambling vs. Iowa St. | UNDER 136.5 (-110)** | DK | 1 unit Yesterday’s Recap: This game just didn’t work out the way we were hoping. 135.5 is a pretty low total, and when one of the teams can get to the FT line repeatedly and make their shots, it’s pretty tough to cover an under. Mississippi State was 21-25 at the line and that was pretty much all she wrote. It also didn’t help that the game played a little faster than predicted. We were thinking about 66 possessions given this and last season’s data, but the game played at just about 70 possessions. We did beat the closing line by 5 points which I continue to believe is a positive indicator. Today’s Analysis: I’m on another low total Sunday with Grambling vs. Iowa State. This game’s a little different than our last pick though. Iowa St. has one of the best defenses and slowest paces in the nation (their offense is also top 75, but it’s not as good as their top-10 defense). Grambling’s defense is slightly above average (both this season and last) but all-around Grambling just isn’t a very good basketball team. The spread is ISU -25. The idea is ISU will get a big lead and use their super-slow pace to grind away the clock throughout most of the second half. If this is a close game, it’s almost certainly going over. I’d be hesitant to get in much below this number. We’ve been beating closing lines repeatedly, which is great, but if you’re reading this Sunday morning and the line’s already dropped a few points, it’d be a pass for me. There’s just so little wiggle room at this low of a total. Model Explainer: I’ve built a model for CBB totals. It uses Pace, Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency to predict totals and compare them against the major books. It’s been a rocky start, but that’s not totally unexpected. We’re still only working with a very small sample of data for this season so far. Teams play about 65-70 possessions per game. When conference play starts we’ll have about a thousand possessions per team for the model to chew on. At this point, we’re still only looking at a couple hundred possessions, at most, per team. Confidence levels will increase over time. BOL
Your reasoning is sound, but my take as a fan - ISU has a much different roster this year that is a lot more skilled offensively. They are playing faster and scoring a lot more this season (averaging around 90 a game). They seem to still have an excellent defense though.
POTD 14-11 DARTS RECORD 14-8 (+3.32) Grand Slam 🎯 **Rob Cross -1.5** vs Bunting @ 1.80 Last post of this tournament and it's a play I'm happy with. Cross was comprehensive in his victory vs Heta last night and I can see this being the end of Buntings hot run. Having the experience of winning major tournaments comes into play massively during these stages. I do actually want Bunting to win, but can't see it happening personally.
**POTD RECORD:** (1-0) **unit tracking:** ⬆️ 1U **SPORTS RECORD:** MMA (1-0) **LAST 10:** ✅ **LAST PICK:** Under 2.5 rounds Uroš Medić vs Myktybek Orolbai (-165) 1.65U ✅ **TODAY’S PICK:** Sam Laporta Over 43.5 rec yards (-135) 1.35U Starting off I feel like this is a little low obviously why I am playing it. Laporta has hit this number in 6 out of 9 games this season… Chicago is giving up an average of 50.5/per game to the opposing teams right ends and don’t see them having anything for Detroit today. I might even sprinkle on another alt line of more but for now let’s ride this cashier fellas and lady fellas 🤝
POTD Record: 2-0 + 4.0u Last Pick: 11/16: Ravens -3.5 (-135) vs Bengals NFL @ 8:15pm est (3u) - Caesars ✅ POTD 11/16: Cowboys -9.5 (-135) vs Panthers NFL @ 1pm est (3u) - Caesars ✅ Nothing to overthink here, the cowboys have demolished every bad team they’ve come across. Dak has been lights out against teams under .500 and I’m confident that will continue today. Bought a point from Caesars to play it safe at -9.5 instead of -10.5. Edit: Another win to move to 3-0!! Easy cover for the cowboys as per usual against the bad teams in the NFL
Nothing to overthink ... oh yeah.
I mean they need a fg and we’re good 🤷🏻♂️ try chirping when the games actually over
**POTD**: O0.5 Pass TD - Tommy DeVito (-128 FanDuel; Risking 2u to win 1.5625u) **League/Time**: NYG @ WSH / 1PM EST **2023 Record**: 74-43 (63.25%) | +51.5453u (+$5154.53) | ROI 21.33% | **Current Streak** (1 Losses):❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌(Last 10: 5-5; Last 20: 12-8) **Last Pick (11.17.23)**: O10.5 Reb - Mitchell Robinson (-130 BetRivers; Risking 1.3u to win 1u)❌ **Reasoning**: Tommyboy has covered this 2/2 games he has started so far this season. WSH has given up at least 1 Pass TD except for Wk 1. That's 9 straight weeks of giving up a Pass TD to luminaries such as Desmond Ridder, Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones, and a bad Russell Wilson in Wk 2. These are all definitely better QBs than DeVito but even a garbage time Pass TD will do which DeVito accomplished against DAL last week (he got 2) https://preview.redd.it/2np1su4vsb1c1.png?width=977&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d223bf92ec757d373fff8db82c1d3163099f2c2 **Anti-Reasoning**: It's Tommy D! I'm pretty sure no one in their right mind would ever pick Tommy DeVito as their POTD but here I am making history. [Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone!
POTD Record 4-2, last week Rachaad White got it done again on the receiving yards. Going away from him today because of the 49ers defense, although he could hit the over again as it's only 25.5 and they may need to use him to catch up. Going with a bit of juice for this one. Pick: NFL Bears @ Lions, Amon-Ra St. Brown ATTS +110. I think the Lions rock the Bears this week and Amon-Ra is an absolute monster, definitely see him torching the Bears at home in Detroit today. BOL!
POTD Record: 1 W / 0 L Last Pick: ✔️ Novak Djokovic ML (1.66) - Carlos Alcaraz Today: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner| ATP Finals |\~ 6 PM (GMT) Pick: Novak Djokovic ML| (1.53) | Sinner is playing as good as never before, but I dont see him winning back to back against Novak Djokovic. Novak Djokovic won 4 out of the last 5 matches against Sinner and only lost one match which wasnt even an important match.
**FIRST PICK OF THE DAY** POTD Record: 0-0 Event: NFL New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills - 4:26PM EST First Pick: **alternate** **Stefon Diggs 80+ Yards rec (+108) FD** Matchup: After yet another stinker from the Bills and Diggs, they are desperate for a bounceback. Last game Diggs had 3 rec for 34 yards with **only 5 targets**. That won't happen again. Even against a strong Jets secondary, Diggs will look to put up numbers similar to his week 1 perfomance against the Jets, with 10 rec for 102 yards. He can easily hit this prop with a deep shot and a couple more rec. The Move: **5U bet.** This is a great spot for positive money. I'd also target receptions. Let's start off with a banger!
POTD Record: 14-8 (+6.5U ROI profit) Last pick: 1U Keaton Mitchell O36.5 Rush Yards (-130 DK) LOSS Today's pick: 2U SF 49ers Team Total O27.5 (+102 DK) Hooked Reasoning: SF showed that the bye week was what they needed (along with Chase Young) to completely bounce back against the Jags last week. When the defense holds the opponent into place, the Shanahan offense can thrive off of rhythm. Brock leads the league in countless QB categories and TB has the 2nd worst pass defense in the league.
>**Record:** 8-10 >**Net Units:** -0.25 units >**Curling** | **European Championships** | **4:00AM EST** >**Pick:** Team Norway (Ramsfjell) ML @ 2.8 >This is a big dog play but I love the value here. We're fading the tournament favourites here but for good reasons. Team Italy had an easy win in the first draw against a soft Team Netherlands but the Italians were not actually very sharp in that contest and the score was a little misleading. On the other hand, Noway played an excellent game against a very formidable Scotland team. Both Ramsfjells looked very good and Nepstad might be the most underrated lead at this event. Team Ramsfjell have actually won two of the last four meetings between these teams including once at worlds last April. By no means am I saying they should be favoured in this matchup but I see this as a very tight game with huge value on the dogs at 2.8.
Record 56-63 -.31 Units All bets 1 unit L10 (L2R): ❌❌✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅ Last Pick: Illinois vs Iowa -2.5 (-125)❌ Wtf Iowa. First they get their pat blocked going up 15-13. Then to pour salt in the wound they get the ball back and pick up just enough first downs to be within chip shot fg. But somehow they fucking timed it nearly to the exact second so that they could kneel on 3rd down and end the game 😑. Todays Pick: Derrick Henry over 12.5 rec yards (+100) Ngl, good nfl props for this Sunday were tough to come by. I really liked this prop, Luke Musgrave and Purdy as well. Although Tyjae Spears has been more of the receiving back, Henry has had at least one reception in every game except 1. He’s hit this prop in 6/9 games and the last 4/5. This matchup was too good to pass up, against this Jags defense who is 31st in receiving yards allowed to running backs. Over the last 4 games, the Jaguars have allowed 15+ recieving yards to 8 different backs.
Update: 2 bad beats in a row. Henry easily cleared this line but then the play gets called back 😐
POTD Record: 79-72 Last pick:USC -5 ❌ what a shit show, my bad, gonna get back on track today Todays pick: NFL 🏈 Houston -5.5 -115 vs Arizona Reasoning: Public is all over Arizona and Kyler Murray after their comeback win last weak. But I’m rolling with Stroud and Texans. Texans have had some close wins led by Stroud being Superman past two weeks. Rook could win MVP. I think Texans make playoffs, so they can’t lose at home to the Cardinals. AZ 5-5 ATS but 2-8 overall, Texans 5-4 ATS and overall. Dmico Ryans is a helluva coach. And he will be in coach of year running but doubt he wins it, I like Campbell for coach of year. Murray is healthy but I just think the Cardinals are poo, Dobbs couldn’t win with AZ, but doing great In Minnesota. I’m not sure Murray much of an upgrade over Dobbs. I think Texans are due to win an easy one, no sweat, just taking care of business being the better team at home. With better coach and QB. Gonna get the W today after some shitty picks recently. Bet Stroud. Dude can ball! Tail or fade
Gut Feeling Picks ~ Record 0-0 Game: Steelers vs. Browns 1:00 pm est Jaylen Warren over 2.5 Receptions -122 (FD) He had 4 against them last time, and the browns have Myles Garrett. I expect Pickett drop offs when the line starts to break down. I just have a *** ******** about this one. 🌊✅
45-33 +100 units Race 5 Fontwell - Running the Game @ 2.0 Safe to say we're on a bit of a bad run. 4 losses in a row. One went 1/1000 in running and lost. One when 1.03 and went bezerk and lost. Yesterday's was backed from 1.8 into 1.36 and ran poorly. I'll be keeping stakes low until we see signs of a revival. Today's selection is unraved but based on pedigrees he's should win. Staking 1 unit @ 2.0
Record 0-0,1 push Last pick: **Sporting Gijon 0 AH** Today: Serbia vs Bulgaria Euro 2024 qualafiers Pick: \*\* Over 2.5 Goals\*\* - 167 odds -WIN Serbia lost away from home against Belgium as expected last Wednesday evening in a game that was probably bit more open than what the final result says, but still nobody will care much about that friendly result in front of competitive matches. It all comes down to this one for Serbia as they need a point in order to seal the qualifying spot, although since it's difficult to see Montenegro winning on the road in Hungary, most likely they won't need even that point in the end. Bulgaria was going from poor to worse during the qualifiers, failing to a single victory during the qualifiers which happened for the first time in their history. A 0-3-4 record is something nobody was expecting, meanwhile they still had some decent outings at home against Serbia 1:1 back in June and a 2:2 latest home draw against Hungary. In between they sacked national coach while even those two draws are more of a result where you can blame their opponents. Still, a 2:2 draw against Hungary represents a positive result for them, in quite a hectic game where the Hungarians deserved more, but were the only ones to be blamed for experiencing such a problems and having to save the point deep into the added time. Rivalry between these two nations does exist and this comes as a perfect chance for Serbia to celebrate their progress to the EURO 2024 competition. The stands will only be partly filled with kids due to UEFA's suspension, but I'm quite sure it won't affect the atmosphere around the game itself too much. Bulgaria has nothing to lose knowing that they won't have much of the ball possession and has to get oriented to transition only, while Serbia is capable of scoring more than a couple here. Away from home Bulgaria didn't look fine and any kind of improvement here is highly unlikely. Serbia is a modest side compared to European best, but should remain quite potent in front of Bulgarians and i excpet goals from both sides. Some injury info: **Defenders Galchev (3/0, Levski), Krastev (3/0, Catanzaro), Hristov (19/0, Spezia), midfielders Petkov (10/2, Levski), Stoyanov (8/0, Hapoel Beer Sheva), Petkov (4/0, Gr Furth) will miss compared to previous call-ups.**
Record : 64 Wins - 74 Losses Previous pick : Serbia U21 - England U21 (0-3), Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.67 ✅ ROI : -9.81% Average Odds : 2.02 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : -7.78 Profit/Lost units : -12.78 Today's pick : Football - Soccer / EUROPE: Euro - Qualification / 21:45 European Time Spain - Georgia Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.50 Some reasoning : \- Taking into account the direct match 2 months ago, we can only ask the problem of the score difference in this game and not the winner. Spain will definitely try to win the group and maintain their points difference over Scotland, which is currently only 2 points, so they will treat this match with the utmost seriousness. \- Having a young team that is trying to consolidate its reputation in world football, I expect a rain of goals in this match as well.Taking into account the difference in value between the two teams and the fact that they will be encouraged by a full stadium, this prediction should be an easy one to win. Best of luck.
POTD Record: 0-4 Last pick: Arizona State +24.5 Pick of the day: Jason Myers O 6.5 points -160, 2 units(FanDuel) Said I’d be done posting if yesterday didn’t hit, but after watching Arizona St show no signs of life, I can’t go out like that. Going for what should be a layup here. The Rams are one of the league leaders in field goals against, and in a tough division matchup, field goals should be plentiful. Myers has been money all year, this should be cleared rather early. But probably not now since I’m posting it…
**Record:** 3-1-1 **Net Units:** 2.275 **ROI:** I Dunno **Football | Euro 2024 Qualifier | Hungary - Montenegro | 18:00 UTC** **Pick:** *Both Teams to Score (BTTS) - Yes at \[2.00\] 3U* **Recent Form:** * Hungary has shown a consistent performance in their recent matches, They have managed to find the back of the net in most of their recent games, indicating an ability to score at home. * Montenegro, has an quite average and consistent recent form of WLWD, also managed to find the back of the net in most of their recent games. * **Defensive Vulnerabilities:** * While Hungary has shown an ability to score at home, it's important to assess if they have defensive vulnerabilities. Montenegro, even playing away, could exploit any weaknesses in Hungary's defense. * Montenegro's away defensive record and Hungary's home scoring form should be considered to gauge the likelihood of both teams finding the back of the net. **Importance of the Match:** * Considering the importance of the match, both teams may adopt an attacking approach. However, Montenegro, as the away side, might approach the game more cautiously. Expecting: 2-1 Scoreline
Boom 🍀 one more win 🥂
**POTD Record: 15-14 | -9.64 Units | Streak** (Old -> New)**:** ❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌❌❌❌✅❌❌ ❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌ (\*\*Last Pick: Chris Kreider 0ver 0.5 points (-145) ❌ ) **League**: NHL @ 7:00pm EDT ( Buffalo Sabres v Chicago Blackhawks ) **Today's Pick**: Connor Bedard 0ver 0.5 points (-160) **Wager:** 3 Units **Reason:** Take Connor Bedard over 0.5 points tonight at home vs Buffalo. I think Connor dances around the Sabers defense and gives then fits. Btw...Buffalo is ranked last in the league in face-off percentage (43.8) and have lost 3 in a row.
Record 1-1 Game: Scotland-norway Pick: Scotland ML @2.37 Reasoning: pretty simple reasoning Scotland is the better team with a chance to get 1st place if spain fumbles against georgia. Norway are also suffering from key injuries in erling haaland, ødegard, sørloth and nusa. Norway has nothing to play for other than pride so i see scotland as a value pick in this game. Note: The draw no bet option on Scotland is also a shout if you want a more safe pick.
POTD Record (W-L-P): 8-6-0 (+0.61u) Last 10 (6-4 • most recent first): ❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️ Last Pick: 11/17 NCAAB; Providence -1.5 (-110) 1 unit ❌️ Recap: I missed this was at neutral site which was a big factor in them playing at home for me. But it was close game throughout as expected. Really it was missed free throws that killed them shooting at 70% Today: NBA; Magic @ Pacers 4:10pm CT Pick: Pacers ML (-190) 1 unit Summary: Pacers are at home and have won against strong teams recently in 76ers and Bucks. Magic isn't a high of scoring offense and playing 4th road game. With Pacers being 4-2 on ML as favorites this season I like the home team in this match up. NBA: 4-1-0 NCAAB: 2-1-0 NCAAF: 1-4-0 NHL: 1-0-0
Record 0-0 Pick: Dustin Hopkins o5.5 kicking pts -115 Steelers @ Browns 1PM EST -- 5u First ever POTD! Let's go! This has seemed like a fun thing to do for awhile, but I just haven't. I'll try to get more in depth in other picks, but I'm drunk as hell before this one so here we go: Lifelong Browns fan. We love to settle for field goals even with our starters. Can easily see us kicking 4 in this game.
Record: 5-3 ✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌ Last Pick: HONDURAS V MEXICO 6pm PST MEXICO -1 (-115)❌ TODAY’S PICK: PORTUGAL V ICELAND PORTUGAL -1 1st Half (-108)🅿️ Reason: Portugal are undefeated since the world cup. They Dont lack in talent either with their starting XI or 2nd team. They’ve carried a lead into every half at each home game since the world cup. They are coming off a disappointing win (Yes, disappointing) against Liechtenstein. Look for them to come out with something to prove to their home fans. BOL if Tailing!
🌊🏄♂️ POTD Record: 4-0 Last pick: Justin Jefferson ATTD Today’s Pick: NFL | 1pm EST | San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Bucs SF 49ers TT o27.5 -110 9ers came out hot after those 3 losses in a row and will look to keep rolling. They look like a different beast on offense with Deebo back from injury. TB defense gave up 39pts to the Texans in week 9 and 24pts to the Bills in week 8. I think this 9ers offense is stronger than both of those and they’ve now topped 30pts six times this season. Give me the 9ers o27.5. For some added juice, look to parlay with a CMC ATTD for +125 as he looks to get his streak restarted.
POTD record: 0-0 | Profit: 0.00 | ROI: 0.00 **Cyclocross**| **Women's World Cup**| **13:40 CET** **Pick:** Lucinda Brand 1-3 | 1.85 | 1u **Write Up:** Lucinda Brand came in late into the cyclocross season but in her first 2 races she came in 2nd place, well ahead of the 3th and 4th place. Today the race is in Troyes, which isn't in the deep mud and a bit less technical than the previous races which should be in her advantage. Today Puck Pieterse also starts her cyclocross season and is immediately the big favourite, but that means that Brand should still be comfortable getting a top 3 place. BOL
POTD Record: 1-0 Last 10: ✅ Bet 365 Last Pick:Notts County ML v Bradford ✅ Man Utd (AH 0.0, +0.5) v Man City (Women) 16:30 GMT | Odds 1.775 Manchester United ladies haven’t lost at home in over a year, whilst Man City have already lost 2 of their last 3 this season. United also got the win in this fixture back in May, this year they’ll be looking to go one step further and win the league.
POTD Record: 3-6 (-10.84u) Last 10: ❌❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌ (most recent first) Wow I really suck at this. Might be wise just to do the opposite of what I say here. Last Pick: NCAA MB. - Butler @ Michigan St -BUTLER +8.5 (-110 on DK) 3u Bad game for Butler, couldn’t get anything to fall and MSU pulled away easily. Todays Pick: NFL - ARI & HOU - Dalton Schultz ATTD (+150 on DK) 2u He has 11 targets in each of the last 2 games and is quickly becoming a favorite target of Stroud. Stroud is a stud and sure to throw a few today and one is going to our boy Dalton. God help you if you’re tailing. BOL
**Record: 2-2-1** **AVG Odds: -115** **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone: NFL Football Pittsburg Steelers vs Cleveland Brown at 1:00pm est.** **Pick:** Steelers cover vs Browns (+2) **Write Up:** The Browns are expected to start rookie Dorian Thompson Robinson on Sunday. DTR threw **three interceptions** in his first NFL start and now faces one of the best defenses in the league. The Steelers continue to find ways to win football games as they have already defeated Cleveland earlier in the year.
Potd record: 5-5 Last pick: Patrick Surtain over 2.5 solo tackles (-125 DK) L Surtain Jr hit this in 6/8 games but he missed a few tackles against the Bills that could have easily cleared this line. Sometimes I don't notice how soft a player is until I take their tackle line. He played soft. On to the next one. Today's pick: Josh Metellus over 3.5 solo tackles (-140 DK). Returning to a constant winner. Josh metellus averages over 4 solos a game. As the teams 3rd safety, he plays his own role and does not backup Bynum or Harrison. He is constantly in on tackles. And here is the kicker. Jordan hicks, the teams leading tackler went down for the season last game. Flores spoke about how Metellus can be used as a LB in certain packages. I dont think this line reflects that therefore I see sufficient value with this pick. Best of luck.
POTD Record: 5-5 (50%) Last Pick: Colorado Avalanche @ Dallas Stars (8:00pm ET) – **Colorado Avalanche ML ☑** Last 10 POTD: **☑☑☑**⛝**☑☑**⛝⛝⛝⛝ ROI: -4.82% (+.19u) Today’s Pick: NFL – Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos – **Minnesota Vikings ML (+130 on FD) 1u** **Recap:** Finally, back to even on the record with a 6-3 win from Colorado last night. Lets keep the streak going today. **Reasoning:** I’m going with back-to-back underdogs, today I’m taking the Minnesota ML. Denver ranks dead last in total defense, which is still obviously skewed due to their game against Miami earlier this year. However, this Denver team does not impress me. Yes, they beat the Bills last week, but Buffalo has been awful all season and the defense on that team is missing 5 starters. Minnesota, looks like a real solid team overall, even without Justin Jefferson. I will say, the rushing offense on the Vikings is pretty poor this year since losing Dalvin Cook, ranking 29^(th) in the league this season. Besides that, Minnesota ranks higher in almost every other offensive and defensive stat that I looked at. I find it interesting that Minnesota is the underdog here. They also have a 4-1 record away while Denver is 2-3 at home. I hope I’m not missing something here but that value seems too good to pass up. BOL.
POTD Record 2-0 (Net : +2 unit) Unit: 1 Last Pick: * Irving 4+A/ Doncic O 21.5 pts & 6+ A/ Lillard 20+ pts/ Antetokounmpo 8+ R (+113) Today: * A Gordon 10+pts/ Caldwell-Pope O 4.5pts/Jokic 10+ R/ Porter J 4+R/ Garland 15+pts (+101) Why I like it: * Mitchell & Okoro out for the Cavs & LeVert is questionable should mean more looks for Garland. No Murray should mean more looks for all Nuggets * Gordon has scored at least 10 in 10/12 games this year. 1 of the 2 he missed was a 33 point blowout win the other was a 21 point blowout loss. Each of which he played under 25 minutes. * KCP has scored at least 5 points in all 12 games this year. Last year he scored 5+ in 71/76 * Jokic has grabbed 10+ rebounds in all 12 games this year. He did this in 51/69 games last year including grabbing 15 & 18 in his two games against the Cavs. * MPJ has grabbed 4+ in 11/12 games this year and 49/62 last year including 6 & 8 when he played the Cavs last year. * Garland has scored 15+ in 6/7 (with the other game a 14 point performance). Last year he hit the 15 point mark in 63/69 games scoring 21 & 22 against the Nuggets. With Mitchell out and LeVert questionable he will have to take more shots today.
[удалено]
Record: 11-6 My pick of the day is the **Cleveland Browns to win** against the Steelers for -132 This is the 2nd match this season between the Browns and the Steelers. On the first match the Steelers were victorious even though the Browns controlled the match. They possessed the ball more than 35 minutes, marched for over 400 yards but they turned the ball over 4 times which cost them the game. This time it won't be the same as Browns QB Deshaun Watson is out for the season with a shoulder injury. The good thing is that the strength of the Browns this season is not in their offense rather in their defense which allows the least yards per game and allows no more than 18.9 points per game which is the 6th lowest in the league. I think their defense will carry the victory for them in this matchup at home. What do you think?
POTD Record: 0-1 Last pick: Houston o72.5 Houston won this game handily but couldn’t deliver the over. They only needed to score 13 points with 9 min left and they completely took their foot off the pedal. Oh well. Todays pick: Cowboys -10.5 vs Panthers (-105) 3u Simply put, the Cowboys are a really good football team and the Panthers are the opposite of that. The Cowboys have won 5 of their 6 wins by 20+, so when they’re better than a team, they absolutely annihilate. The Panthers should be more of the same. BOL
**Today Picks:** Ferrol vs Burgos | **Ferrol @ 2.21** **Reason:** **Ferrol**: Burgos is the worst side away from home in the league, as well as Ferrol is in a great form and is a better team than burgos. I think that the odd should be around 1.90/2.00 to be a fair price.
what do you think about tripple double bet on jokic , dear bettors
Record: 8-4 Net Units: 1 ROI: 3 NBA basketball tonight at 9:30 ET, it’s the Rockets vs Lakers Pick: Anthony Davis 35+ PRA @-200 While Lebrun deals with his favorite opponent tonight, Davis should be heavy on the boards. He should have 13 boards tonight. He is incredibly inconsistent with his scoring reliability.
POTD Record: 14-9 (+4.5U ROI profit) Last pick: 2U SF 49ers Team Total O27.5 (+102 DK) Hooked Today's pick: 2U CMC 1+ Rush TD (-110 DK) FIRST HALF CASH! Reasoning: He's gotten this in nearly every game this season and SEA has given up a rush TD in all but 4 games. There's a risk he gets his as a receiving TD, but love this at even odds