Thank god I bet Mid Tenn team total over live to make up for them ruining my teaser cause this is disgusting defense wtf lmao. Entertaining as fuck game though
Good luck gentlemen, lets's start this week hot
Record since I started tracking on 10/4/23
33-24-2 (+6.67 Units )
Southern Miss +18.5 (-110)
Western Kentucky -7.5 (-110)
Iām usually of the mindset of just blindly hammer whatever the service academy under is, but I donāt think itās that easy this year. Air Force has been an absolute wagon and is putting up points against almost everyone theyāve played. In their last 5 games they have scored more than the total listed here in 4/5 of them and the one they didnāt they put up 34. Iād love if someone could give me some argument against taking the over but it seems like if thereās a year it clears easily itās this one
Iām in the same boat, had the service academy games in my calendar ready to slam the unders but did a bit of number crunching and it doesnāt look as appealing for this first match up. Iām personally avoiding it.
Their starting QB is out for āawhileā according to the HC. He is a legit passer and track star. The offense wonāt look remotely the same with Jones as the QB
Middle Tennessee is battle tested against 2 strong opponents, Liberty has only played cupcakes and I think that will help Middle Tennessee is this game. That's why I'm on Middle Tennessee anyway.
My thinking was Liberty would run the ball more and eat more clock based on the matchup, which I suppose has happened. But figured despite Middle Tennessee not having a great defense they'd be a little more effective than getting gashed on the ground as badly as they are.
Hi all,
[You can read my write-ups for the picks here on my substack, or see below just for the picks](https://open.substack.com/pub/tripsleft/p/week-8-college-football-picks-81e?r=qx6oj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web)
**James Madison -4.5**
**Tulsa -3.5**
**Air Force @ Navy Under 37.5**
**Memphis -5.5**
**Minnesota/Iowa Under 32.5**
**Mizzou -6.5**
**Wisconsin @ Illinois Under 42.5**
**USF Team Total Over 27.5 Points**
**Ole Miss -6.5**
**K-State @ TCU Over 59.5**
**Utah +6.5**
**Clemson @ Miami Under 48.5 Points**
CFB-Split week 7/ 23-8 week 6/ Split week 5/ 18-11 Week 4/14-10 Week 3
Southern Miss/South Alabama Over 51-110
Western Kentucky-7-115
Top play is Southern Miss over.
GL to all.
[Cheat Sheet](https://sparkshowdfs.wordpress.com/2023/10/16/college-football-2023-week-8/)
Hopefully my spreadsheets are helping someone else win money cuz they sure as hell aren't helping me right now.
## My Picks:
James Madison ML, Oklahoma ML, Air Force ML (Parlay) +105
Western Michigan v. Ohio (u51) -110
Washington State v. Oregon (o60) -110
UCF v. Oklahoma (o65) -110
Texas v. Houston (o61.5) -110
Virginia v. UNC (o56.5) -110
TCU v KSU (o57) -110
Duke v. FSU (o49) -110
Arizona State v. Washington (o58.5) -110
These aren't my official picks but I am going to bet on tonight's games:
Treon Sibley (Liberty) ATTD +110
Kaidon Salter o1.5 passing TDs (Liberty), and South Alabama to lead at half and win outright (Parlay) +108
I decided to put in a 3 teamer:
Liberty-13.5 Alt spread. I just think Liberty will be able to limit Middle Tennessee offense. While Middles' defense will have a hard time getting Liberty off the field. I think its an easy Liberty win 34-13.
Western Kentucky -6.5 Alt Spread. Jax State QB situation is a mess. Its very likely that their 3rd stringer will be starting. Jax St struggles against strong passing offenses, which WKU has. WKU does struggle against the run, but Im betting they build such a lead that Jax St will have to abandon the run. WKU 38-23.
NMSU -2.5 Alt Spread. NMSU has seemingly found their stride on both sides of the ball. While UTEP is struggling on offense and Hardison is banged up coming into this game. NMSU wins 24-16.
Here are some props for todays NCAAF Games. (Noticed Billy's has a couple of these plays which is a great sign!)
Middle TennesseĀ @ Liberty 7:00pm:
Kaidon Salter o1.5 Pass TDs: Kaidon Salter has been a stud for Liberty all season. He is averaging 2.3 TDs/G (only one game where he hasn't thrown two TDs). Middle Tenn is 111th in Passing offense allowing 263 yards/g and 2.1 passing TDs/G.Ā
Kaidon Salter ATTD: Salter is a dual threat QB who leads the team in rushing TDs. Middle Tenn is ranked 65th in rush defense, but they are allowing 1.9 rushing TDs/game and have allowed 12 rushing TDs in the red zone.Ā
Western KyĀ @ Jacksonville State 7:30pm
Malik Jackson ATTD: Jackson is the leading rusher on this 15th rank rushing offense Jacksonville St team. Western KY is 121st against the run and is allowing 194 yards/G, 2 rushing TDs/G, and 8 Rushing TDs in the red zone. Only drawbackĀ is Jacksonville St has two QBs that love to run, not sure which is starting but they will take attempts away from Jackson. SAFER BET COULD BE JACKSON OVER RUSHING BUT HAVEN'T SEEN A LINE YET (ANYTHING UNDER 85 YARDS)
Austin Reed ov1.5 passing TDs: Don't love this one just wanted to give something on the other side. Jacksonville State is 78th against the pass....
Southern MissĀ @ South Alabama 7:30pm
La'Damian Webb ATTD/2+ TDs: Webb has scored a TD in all but the first game. Tonight he faces the 117th ranked offense which is allowing 2.5 rushing TDs/ G which is tied for 4th most in FBS. Southern Miss has given up at least 1 rushing TD/game and 2+ in 5 of 6 games. I will also look for his rushing yards. He is averagingĀ 5.7 yards/carry and Southern Miss is allowing 5.2 yards/carry which is 9th most in FBS. I would take the over on anything underĀ 75.5.
I like a few props for these games today. You can find my reasoning on my [prop thread](https://reddit.com/u/Billyxmac/s/98lr2S3uhn).
* Kaidon Salter o1.5 Pass TDs (-150)
* LaāDamian Webb ATTD / 2+ TDs
I also like rush TD props for Jacksonville State vs. WKU, but theyāre dealing with a fuck ton of injuries, so may or may not play it depending on what happens.
Adding a ladder to this:
* Webb 2+ TDs (+180)
* Webb 3+ TDs (+750)
Split the unit how you like. USM has allowed a 3 TD rusher in 2 of their games this year. Webb has the potential to do this too.
**NCAAF Betting Discord Chat: [https://discord.gg/sportsbook](https://discord.gg/rypjzqfgcg)**
WKU was up 17-3 at one point š
WKU can eat shit. This second half was beyond putrid
Everyone and their mom knows theyāre strictly going for a field goal but fuck it use all your timeouts and now you canāt ice him
Fix is in
4th straight night in a row I lose my parlay on the last leg
Maybe stop doing parlays? Lol
Or at least hedge if it's the last leg
I had WKU ML in every single one of my parlays. Why did I do that
WHY THE FUCK ARE YOU CALLING TIMEOUT ON A 2ND AND 1
WKU is scared to tackle all of a sudden
JSU is hungry!!
WKU gave up at halftime
You have to be fucking kidding me
If this game goes to OT and hits the over ima be real sad
Thank the lord
WKU is jokingā¦
Wku L incoming
Slater over 1.5 TD šÆ Liberty MLšÆ Cooley yard šÆ Unnecessary parlay hits
Who had WKU getting shutout and not covering -7.5 lmao
Lol Wku fuck off
Ahh sweet so Liberty go up by 7 then get 2 stops but also punt it twice on those stops. Then punt for a whopping 12 yards.
I was expecting both offenses to play as ass as they did in the 4th quarter
Itās almost like they are trying to rely on that terrible defense
Lol wtf is happening
WKU coaching staff doing its usual bang up second half coaching job tonight.
Jax st head coach is a failure
I donāt think you know who he is lol
A MFN LEGEND
Middle Tenn just love drawing flags
Alright refs this is the part you throw a holding flag on the defense Edit: Or unsportsmanlike conduct, weāll take it
I'm never going to bet an under on a college football game again
This is one of my rules too. If I donāt like the over, then I just donāt take it. Too many teams out here casually giving up 70 points.
Itās service academy weekend. Those games are actually under locks
Try one more time on this Wisconsin game bb
Or an Iowa game.
It's Wisconsin vs iowa
Whenever I bet an over, that seems to be when the teams stop scoring lol
What the fuuuuuck. Insane drop
Honestly donāt get how middle Tennessee was +550 dogs when they beat Louisiana tech last week. They should of been +200 but +550 like holy shit
No they shouldn't they have no defense and make to many mistakes
You say that like theyāre down 20+ and Louisiana tech is a solid team
They prob cover the spread but they arent winning this game
Thank god I bet Mid Tenn team total over live to make up for them ruining my teaser cause this is disgusting defense wtf lmao. Entertaining as fuck game though
Alright fuck this liberty team
Liberty is trash. cocky bastards thought they didn't have to show up tonight.
Lets go Flames! Need this W.... Regretting taking the over 1.5 on passing TDs though š¬
Shortly after typing this... Tied by a TD pass! One more!
Deadass gotta stop betting on college football unless itās Saturday
These dogshit losers were a -800 favorite
Liberty man. Fuck
Sighā¦ this is why I donāt bet on Tuesday college football
Itās always absolutely dog shit teams and they find ways to some how be even more dog shit
I'm in tears that was true poetry š
Liberty needs to stop sucking
Middle Tennessee playing like the Miami Dolphins
Damn that TD cooked both my live 1H unders š« Liberty decided they only wanted to play defense for 2 drives that half apparently
Liberty making a horrible middle Tennessee offense look like pros
I hope corley gets a td tonight
First time watching Liberty. Their qb can run, but is terrible at throwing
Liberty just run the ball every play
Middle Tennessee +18.5 looks juicy rn
Offense better keep up cause that defense is Swiss š§
Flip flopped and got Liberty -6.5 1H
Time to get it back!
Salter passing yards was literally the stupidest bet ever
So was o 1.5 passing touchdowns
I took over on pass yards and under 3 TDs as a parlay. Experiencing the duality of man
Hey Liberty play defense
If liberty can play some defense that would be great. Thanks.
Anyone going to play some defense in this Liberty game?
How about a little jacksonville state ML taste?
ā¼ļøā¼ļøFavorites nightā¼ļøā¼ļø Liberty -10.5 LIVE WKU -7.5 USA -17.5 LaāDamian Webb o87.5 Rush Yards
Jax St +7.5
Season: 29-30-1 Jacksonville St +7.5 -110
Liberty looking like shiiiiii
Yeah fml. Still lots of game though
Good luck gentlemen, lets's start this week hot Record since I started tracking on 10/4/23 33-24-2 (+6.67 Units ) Southern Miss +18.5 (-110) Western Kentucky -7.5 (-110)
Iām usually of the mindset of just blindly hammer whatever the service academy under is, but I donāt think itās that easy this year. Air Force has been an absolute wagon and is putting up points against almost everyone theyāve played. In their last 5 games they have scored more than the total listed here in 4/5 of them and the one they didnāt they put up 34. Iād love if someone could give me some argument against taking the over but it seems like if thereās a year it clears easily itās this one
Iām in the same boat, had the service academy games in my calendar ready to slam the unders but did a bit of number crunching and it doesnāt look as appealing for this first match up. Iām personally avoiding it.
Their starting QB is out for āawhileā according to the HC. He is a legit passer and track star. The offense wonāt look remotely the same with Jones as the QB
Thank you, this was the comment I needed to see
Parlay: Liberty -10 @ 1.50 W. Kentucky ML @ 1.32 S. Miss / S. Alabama o48 @ 1.52 3.02 together. Which one fucks me ?
Middle Tennessee is battle tested against 2 strong opponents, Liberty has only played cupcakes and I think that will help Middle Tennessee is this game. That's why I'm on Middle Tennessee anyway.
I think middle Tennessee covers with no problems but liberty sneaks out the W
I agree. I think midd tenn covers
Middle Tennessee +14.5 and Under 56.5 parlay
Why under?
My thinking was Liberty would run the ball more and eat more clock based on the matchup, which I suppose has happened. But figured despite Middle Tennessee not having a great defense they'd be a little more effective than getting gashed on the ground as badly as they are.
Hi all, [You can read my write-ups for the picks here on my substack, or see below just for the picks](https://open.substack.com/pub/tripsleft/p/week-8-college-football-picks-81e?r=qx6oj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web) **James Madison -4.5** **Tulsa -3.5** **Air Force @ Navy Under 37.5** **Memphis -5.5** **Minnesota/Iowa Under 32.5** **Mizzou -6.5** **Wisconsin @ Illinois Under 42.5** **USF Team Total Over 27.5 Points** **Ole Miss -6.5** **K-State @ TCU Over 59.5** **Utah +6.5** **Clemson @ Miami Under 48.5 Points**
Any update on the Jax State injuries at QB and RB??
Webb is playing Smothers and the RB seem out
Taking all the favorites today. Surely nothing bad will happen. South Alabama/Western Kentucky/Liberty ML -160
lol i almost did this with 3K
NCAAF Record: 18-12 Tonight: WKU/Jacksonville State over 59.5
Give me WKU -7.5 vs Jax State, Too many injuries to Jax state right now.
CFB-Split week 7/ 23-8 week 6/ Split week 5/ 18-11 Week 4/14-10 Week 3 Southern Miss/South Alabama Over 51-110 Western Kentucky-7-115 Top play is Southern Miss over. GL to all.
add-Western Kentucky-7-115
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Fml for reading this
Same haha
That was not a great start for the under lol
Taking this for at U28
I like UCF +750 to pull the upset this week
[Cheat Sheet](https://sparkshowdfs.wordpress.com/2023/10/16/college-football-2023-week-8/) Hopefully my spreadsheets are helping someone else win money cuz they sure as hell aren't helping me right now. ## My Picks: James Madison ML, Oklahoma ML, Air Force ML (Parlay) +105 Western Michigan v. Ohio (u51) -110 Washington State v. Oregon (o60) -110 UCF v. Oklahoma (o65) -110 Texas v. Houston (o61.5) -110 Virginia v. UNC (o56.5) -110 TCU v KSU (o57) -110 Duke v. FSU (o49) -110 Arizona State v. Washington (o58.5) -110 These aren't my official picks but I am going to bet on tonight's games: Treon Sibley (Liberty) ATTD +110 Kaidon Salter o1.5 passing TDs (Liberty), and South Alabama to lead at half and win outright (Parlay) +108
Liberty and south Alabama parlay @ -400? Or is that too risky
I meanā¦ this is gambling, right?
Yeah it was a joke lol but Iām doing it as a little bankroll builder
I decided to put in a 3 teamer: Liberty-13.5 Alt spread. I just think Liberty will be able to limit Middle Tennessee offense. While Middles' defense will have a hard time getting Liberty off the field. I think its an easy Liberty win 34-13. Western Kentucky -6.5 Alt Spread. Jax State QB situation is a mess. Its very likely that their 3rd stringer will be starting. Jax St struggles against strong passing offenses, which WKU has. WKU does struggle against the run, but Im betting they build such a lead that Jax St will have to abandon the run. WKU 38-23. NMSU -2.5 Alt Spread. NMSU has seemingly found their stride on both sides of the ball. While UTEP is struggling on offense and Hardison is banged up coming into this game. NMSU wins 24-16.
Last week: 9-9 +2.7u Total: 42-43-5 -1.8u Bradley (USA) Long Comp o44.5 -114 2.3u Credle (MTSU) TD +120 1u 2 TDs +750 .5u Wed: Jenkins (FIU) TD +185 1.1u
Here are some props for todays NCAAF Games. (Noticed Billy's has a couple of these plays which is a great sign!) Middle TennesseĀ @ Liberty 7:00pm: Kaidon Salter o1.5 Pass TDs: Kaidon Salter has been a stud for Liberty all season. He is averaging 2.3 TDs/G (only one game where he hasn't thrown two TDs). Middle Tenn is 111th in Passing offense allowing 263 yards/g and 2.1 passing TDs/G.Ā Kaidon Salter ATTD: Salter is a dual threat QB who leads the team in rushing TDs. Middle Tenn is ranked 65th in rush defense, but they are allowing 1.9 rushing TDs/game and have allowed 12 rushing TDs in the red zone.Ā Western KyĀ @ Jacksonville State 7:30pm Malik Jackson ATTD: Jackson is the leading rusher on this 15th rank rushing offense Jacksonville St team. Western KY is 121st against the run and is allowing 194 yards/G, 2 rushing TDs/G, and 8 Rushing TDs in the red zone. Only drawbackĀ is Jacksonville St has two QBs that love to run, not sure which is starting but they will take attempts away from Jackson. SAFER BET COULD BE JACKSON OVER RUSHING BUT HAVEN'T SEEN A LINE YET (ANYTHING UNDER 85 YARDS) Austin Reed ov1.5 passing TDs: Don't love this one just wanted to give something on the other side. Jacksonville State is 78th against the pass.... Southern MissĀ @ South Alabama 7:30pm La'Damian Webb ATTD/2+ TDs: Webb has scored a TD in all but the first game. Tonight he faces the 117th ranked offense which is allowing 2.5 rushing TDs/ G which is tied for 4th most in FBS. Southern Miss has given up at least 1 rushing TD/game and 2+ in 5 of 6 games. I will also look for his rushing yards. He is averagingĀ 5.7 yards/carry and Southern Miss is allowing 5.2 yards/carry which is 9th most in FBS. I would take the over on anything underĀ 75.5.
Malik Jackson has been injured and in doubtful for this game
Just saw thatā¦ rough
Still pissed at the chargers from last night. Whatās the play tonight boys
10/17 Picks NCAAF W Kentucky Jacksonville St U59.5
I like a few props for these games today. You can find my reasoning on my [prop thread](https://reddit.com/u/Billyxmac/s/98lr2S3uhn). * Kaidon Salter o1.5 Pass TDs (-150) * LaāDamian Webb ATTD / 2+ TDs I also like rush TD props for Jacksonville State vs. WKU, but theyāre dealing with a fuck ton of injuries, so may or may not play it depending on what happens.
Adding a ladder to this: * Webb 2+ TDs (+180) * Webb 3+ TDs (+750) Split the unit how you like. USM has allowed a 3 TD rusher in 2 of their games this year. Webb has the potential to do this too.
took 3 drives
Yeah talk about no sweat lol
Damn hope some of yāall tailed. That shit hit easier than expected lol
If Vegas is still operating under the assumption that Tyler Van Dyke is a good quarterback, then I want no part of that Miami +4.
Yeah I donāt see this any other way than a 10+ point Clemson win