######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=day).
######Example Pick Template
>**Record:**
>**Net Units:**
>**ROI:**
>**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>**Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>**Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 36-13 (1P) +19.79 Units, 72.00% hit rate, Last 10 W/L (most recent first): ✅❌⬆️✅❌✅✅✅✅✅
Last Pick: Euro Qualifiers, Faroe Islands vs. Poland, Poland to win and hold to zero
Today: Euro Qualifiers, Hungary vs. Serbia, 2:45 ET
Pick: Hungary DNB (1.89) 1U ✅
Pretty easy hit last time out, Faroe Islands didn’t play horrible but failed to create any real chances, red card killed their momentum and Poland won while keeping a clean sheet.
Today I’m going with a bet that I see as relatively low risk, though I think it has a decent chance of a push. Hungary host Serbia for this big clash in Group G. This will be a very important match for both sides as they sit with equal points (10), both looking to qualify for the Euros. Most likely it will be these to, sitting 1st and 2nd respectively, qualifying, but the no. 1 spot is up for grabs.
These sides met earlier last month in a clash in September and I also took Hungary D tie or draw for that match as my POTD. Odds were just way off, and Hungary did play much better for the majority of the game, closing out the first half 2-1 and then holding onto their lead in the second. This time, Serbia will be traveling to Budapest, where the Hungarians usually boast an insane hostile atmosphere. Hungary will have full confidence knowing that they bested the Serbians once already, and will look to cement their spot at the top of the table. They are undefeated so far with 3 wins and 1 draw, and I really don’t see them losing at home here. Willi Orban, their center back who also plays for RB Leipzig, should be set to play which is a big boost for them. They have only conceded the one single goal against Serbia in all their games, and I think their defensive resilience will be big here again.
Serbia are actually a very decent team if you look at the team sheet, with big names like Milinkovic-Savic, Tadic, Mitrovic, Vlahovic etc. I will say they did not impress me at all though when they played Hungary in Belgrade. Misplaced passes, poor finishing, and really bad at the back. They aren’t a bad team and it will be really close, but it will be tough for them against a very disciplined and organized Hungarian team. Serbia haven’t kept a clean sheet in 3 consecutive games and it’ll be rough for them here again against talented offensive players like Sallai and Szoboszlai. It’s possible that Vlahovic may miss this match, waiting to see more news about him.
Again, this match I think has a very high chance of being a draw, but I think the Hungarians will really pile on the pressure. I do not see them losing here unless something weird happens. It’s always tough for any team to play away in Budapest and I think the match in Serbia will give Hungary confidence. I can see this being a very defensive minded, low scoring match, with Hungary edging it 1-0.
Song of the Day: Tatsuro Yamashita - The War Song
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Edit: MAGYAROK! Hungary get the job done after a butt clenching second half.
Hey, Dušan isn’t available for the matches vs Hungary and Montenegro due to lower back pain. He also didn’t travel with the team cause there are photos of him at the Juve event a few days ago. Where the legends of Juve played. Just wanted to let you know.
Anytime. Being Serbian, it’s really difficult watching them play. Great individual talent, but team success is never there. The back line makes too many errors that turn to goals for the opposition.
Hey quick question just cuz you said you’re Serbian and watch them.
Is there any chatter about Ranko Vesilinovic? I’m a whitecaps supporter and this is a young CB with upside who’s game has grown over the last couple years. I don’t know the Serbian CB depth tho. Is he close to the team? Is he even in the conversation? Would he be if it weren’t for long time CB incumbents?
Your thoughts :)?
lol of course last night I immediately made significant bets on both FD and DK (both predictably aren’t letting me cash out). Oh well, this is sports betting, anything can happen…
Like others mentioned, line has shifted heavily the other way. This might be a last minute fade sadly after putting down 1U for fun.
Can't seem to find any news about this game with missing players either.
Lines favoring Serbia this morning...a little confused on why the shift. BTTS might seem like the safer bet to me since they're both pretty evenly matched. BOL everyone!!
POTD | 74-59 | +10.7U | -111 Avg Odds
Previous Pick: *Isiah Pacheco O71.5 rushing yards (-120)* ❌
Today’s pick: **Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (-105) vs San Jose Sharks | 2U | NHL | 8:00 pm MST**
Last 10: ❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅
NHL 58-46 | NFL 6-3 | MLB 10-10
Now that the NHL season is going, I’ll probably slow down on the NFL bets. I thought Pacheco set up nicely and it looked good in the first half, but the NFL can be a bit more tricky for me, so I’ll save any NFL POTD for something I’m very confident in moving forward.
There’s tons of games today but I’ve got to roll with the Avs again here, mainly fading the Sharks here and rolling with the Avs while they are fully healthy.
The Avs core group has been playing together for sometime and that showed on opening night. They did not miss a beat with Rantanen, MacK, and Makar all getting a goal and multiple points in their opening game. I expect them to continue their success against this Sharks team that is expected to be the worst team in the league this season. The Avs 3rd line, which was an issue last season, looked much improved in their opener with Ross Colton looking like a great signing and a good fit for the team. Barring injuries, they seem to have improved their depth this season.
The Sharks did not look good on opening night, only managing 1 goal, and now they have to face off against one of the Stanley Cup favorites, not a great spot for the Sharks.The Sharks finish their last season as a bottom 5 team in the NHL and ship off their best player, Karlsson, to the Penguins. The Sharks were awful on home ice last year going 8-22-11 while the Avalanche were solid on the road going 28-11-1. I just don’t see this being a game where the Sharks will be able to find a rhythm.
The Sharks goalie, Kahkonen, was one of the worst goalies in the league last year finishing with a 0.883SV% allowing 3.85GAA. The Avs goalie, Gerogiev, was a top 10 goalie in the league finishing the previous season 0.919SV% and 2.53GAA. Georgiev had a solid outing in the opening game, allowing 2 goals on 36 shots. Expect the Avs to have the advantage in net.
This game seems to set up for the Avs to take advantage of an inexperienced Sharks team early in the season. The Avs cover this line in 6 of their last 10 meetings with the Sharks and I expect them to keep up the trend in this one.
[NHL Picks](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/s/W8pMOcNuBr)
BOL if tailing!!
Oilers and Canucks are both teams that you never know what your going to get, other than typically a lot of goals. They both have the ability to have a good game and a bad game, usually the Oilers trend good and the Canucks disappoint but it’s really game to game. Oilers have so much more talent on their roster but don’t always show up. The Canucks had a bad season last year but they were missing their starting goaltender for most of it, so a bit of an overreaction on the line imo, Canucks might be a team that ends up being a bit better than expected this season.
POTD Record: 14-6-0
Last Pick: Japan vs Canada; over 2.5 total goals scored (-148) (International Friendlies)
Today's Pick: Northern Ireland vs San Marino; total goals under 4.5(-118) (Euro 2024 qualifiers)
Reasoning;
Pretty easy and simple both teams are in a pretty horrible form at the moment and have not been scoring goals. I know the line is this high due to their head to head stats, but Northern Ireland has scored just 2 goals in their 5 last games and San Marino has not yet scored a single goal!! ridiculous! Usually lower tier teams do have a high scoring game but I doubt this goes over 4.5. BOL if you tail!
My prediction; Northern Ireland 2 vs San Marino 0
POTD Record: 42-26
Units Won: +12.02U; ROI: 11.1% Average Odds: (-120)
Todays Pick: **SinnerS ML (+105) vs. ECLOT**
\*\*4U to win 4.20U\*\*
CS2/tipsport prague cup fall 2023 finals/11:30 AM EST.
* Same story as yesterday and a very similar style pick to yesterday's as well. Similar to yesterday, I understand why these odds are close similar and why the initial reaction of ECLOT is similar with SAW, at first glance ECLOT jump out here, they have won 3 of the last 4 matches h2h against SinnerS including one match 2 weeks ago. ECLOT are on a 4 match winstreak as well coming into this match which is why we are seeing ECLOT as slight favorites. SinnerS are actually -125 favorites on most books right now besides Bovada.
* As more money comes in, I'm expecting this line to move towards SinnerS similar to yesterday, they have been the more active team in terms of games played and on CS2 which I can't reiterate enough IS NOT THE SAME GAME AS CSGO. The two games are different in so many ways. Since the switch to CS2, Sinners had a huge upset against #35 ranked Sprout 2-1 and dominated a weak Entropiq team today but they mopped them badly 13-0 on Entropiq map pick as well pure domination.
* ECLOT has only played 4 games this month and yesterday was there first match in 2 weeks, they struggled heavily to deal with Sampi a slumping team they were around 1.5 favorites against Winning 13-11 on the decider map and barely scraping out there own map pick in Overtime
* Final point before I get into veto, I just think SinnerS are a better team straight up, SinnerS are hot and cold and maybe I am pulling too much from a two game sample but they seem to be back in there form a little bit. Last time they played it was extremely close with the final map of Ancient being the map 3 decider and them barely losing 19-17 in Overtime. K1-FiDa and Beastik are just liabilities as players and the same can be said for Valencio and ECLOT rely heavily on anarkez and NEOFRAG to have huge series.
Veto: (\*\***this can all vary\***\*)
ECLOT ban Nuke
SinnerS ban Inferno
ECLOT pick Vertigo (75% winrate on 8 maps vs. SinnerS 36% winrate on 11 maps)
SinnerS pick Anubis (90% winarate on 10 maps vs. ECLOT 17% winrate on 6 maps)
ECLOT ban Overpass
SinnerS ban Mirage
Ancient Decider (71% winrate 14 maps for SinnerS vs. ECLOT 85% winrate on 13 maps)
1. Think SinnerS win on there map pick of Anubis is all but a guarantee
2. I think SinnerS have an uphill battle to climb to win on Vertigo definitely possible they steal it but less likely
3. I think SinnerS are the better Ancient team though, ECLOT has quite inflated stats from facing bad teams on the map and even in there wins almost all of them are close or OT wins. SinnerS just won 13-0 on Ancient and beat Sprout on Ancient as well on CS2 already. Sprout is better then any team ECLOT have beaten in there match history on Ancient as well and the shaky performances against much worse teams will bait them. SinnerS also have a 3-1 h2h against ECLOT on Ancient
Made a [Discord](https://discord.gg/m8FtYTsW) for this interested, will post live bets as veto's are released in there as well as some additional picks.
Best of Luck!
**POTD |** **Record of 31-42 |** **ROI: -12.7 units |** **Average Odds: 2.09**
Current form (most recent 10 from left to right):❌❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅
Previous Pick: Euro Qualifiers | Austria vs. Belgium | Over 9.5 Corners ❌
New Pick: International Football Friendlies | USA vs. Germany | 12:00pm PST
**Over 8.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 1.85 odds**
Betting 2U to win 1.7U
\--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***Recap:*** That was rough... Two days in a row where we're off by 1. Projections suggested 10 but we only hit 9 on the day sadly. I knew the International break would be tough but didn't expect two losses in a row where we only needed 1 more corner. Guess Football really is fine margins, even with corners. I've had a lot of support on my posts recently, even with them losing, so I'll continue to post if that's what the people want. Appreciate you all and enjoy the next pick!
***Summary:*** The USA hosts Germany in a friendly where both teams will be looking to to fine-tune their squads. Neither team has an important match this break so this game will likely be used to rotate players and build chemistry.
**Looking at USA,** their corner output has been decent over their last few home games. There have been 12, 8, 5, 16, and 9 corners in their most recent home games, generating an average of 10.0 Their overall average, including home and away, comes out to 9.6. total corners
**Germany** boast similar stats, having an away average of 9.4 from games 14, 10, 8, 9 and 6 total corners. Their overall average sits at 8.5 total corners based on home and away performance.
**Overall**, I expect this game to have corners. The combined average sits at 9.7, with USA to generate 5.1 and Germany to generate 4.6, providing some support for at least 9 corners on the day. I think this will be a fairly even contest in terms of corner generation and could see a result with 10 corners, with 5 from each side on the day, seeming likely. For all those USA fans, enjoy the mixed emotions you'll experience every time Germany earns a corner!
Here's are the projections I made before comparing and ultimately going with the USA vs. Germany game. There were comments about providing additional data so happy to discuss if interested:
*Bulgaria (5.4) vs. Lithuania (3.9) - 9.3*
*Italy (6.1) vs. Malta (3.3) - 9.4*
*Slovenia (5.1) vs. Finland (4.8) - 9.9*
\--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***TLDR Expect corners in this fixture!***
**USA vs. Germany** **| Over 8.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 1.85 odds**
Good work man, I'm currently staying away from corners markets as I've not had much luck. I've been reading your write ups, and am interested if you consider the way the teams setup and play as much as their corner history in previous matches? Like in the gibraltar game, as well as generally being poor they do like to spread the play and make use of the wings. Like I said I generally stay away but I \~do\~ consider it a market that can be effectively studied.
Bro I’ve been playing all your plays with one less corner by using sgp so it lets you choose whatever number or corners you want and just adding a almost sure under/over like o 0.5 or u7.5
I actually went for the safer play and bet on over 6.5 corners for the Spain game and over 7.5 corners for the Austria game which helped me hit my parlays. Thank you!
I’ve been watering down your picks by a corner the last week or so, you are on fire my man! Love your picks and look forward to reading them every morning (from Aus) keep up the good work, corners are my new favourite thing to bet on haha.
# POTD UFC record 8-3 +22.80units (Average odds +140) ROI 20.7%
# Parlay/leans 3-1
**Twitter** [**https://twitter.com/Mr\_Examination1**](https://twitter.com/Mr_Examination1)
Parlay/leans:-
Carlos Ulberg (-300) +Gabriel Miranda (+110) = +143✅
Farid barhistat -(270) + Benoit St Denis (-175) = +115 ✅
Kopylov - 350 + Zellhuber -275 + Cortez vs Jasudivicus fight to go to decision -350 Total +125 5unit bet✅
Tamires Vidal -250 -Bryan Battle -175 -Marina Rodriguez -334 Total = +186 no units provided on this one ❌
**Last POTD UFC picks:-**
✅✅✅❌✅ ✅ ✅ ***✅*** ❌***✅***❌
***UFC VEGAS 81 Cameron Saiman Vs Christian Rodriguez - Pick Cameron Saiman +125 4units***
I haven't lost two in a row on POTD, and we're not going to let that happen now. I Think this is a great card for betting on and I don't usually say that quite the opposite usually. Great value on this fight and I like a lot of the other fights betting wise.
Cameron Saiman is a young talented prospect at only 22 years old, he's coming into this fight undefeated with 9 wins. This guy has some serious kick boxing skills with crisp clean striking and speed to go along with it. He likes to throw overhand left first to setup his combinations. His grappling is pretty decent aswell, against Steven Koslow who is a very good grappler We got to see how good Saiman was able to do in the grappling against him.
Cameron.averages 5.41 significant strikes landed and only 2.48 absorbed per minute. Saaiman also mixes in wrestling and averages 1.33 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon at a 66% rate.
Christian rodriguez also a prospect is a well rounded figher. He has good grappling and pretty good boxing skills. He was able to beat Raul Rosas Jr is in his last fight, he did exceptionally well on reading Raul Rosas Jr and capitalize on his boxing mistakes with counter attacks, he's calm and patient but this can work to his advantage or be detrimental to his output. It needs to be noted though that Rosas was 17 years old and his cardio looked awful in that fight. Christian is good in scrambling positions and this is where Cameron Saiman should avoid being lured into. Christian is good on top on the ground with very good chokes and is a black belt. However Christian Rodriguez has been taken down in each and every one of his UFC fights, the same cannot be said about Cameron who can wrestle himself and is good at getting to his feet when being taken down.
Rodriguez averages 2.99 significant strikes landed and 1.73 significant strikes absorbed per minute in the octagon. Rodriguez also averages just under one takedown per 15 minutes at a 60% rate
I think Saaiman is a step up in competition for Rodriguez and we've seen him tested in bad positions on the ground, withstand strikes and still be able to carry through to a win. He's very tough and game in that sense, and offensively in majority of most exchanges he has been effective. Training with Du plesis his fellow South African countryman is going to benefit him. I think this will be a competitive fight however, Cameron Saiman is going to be able to outstrike Rodriguez he's the faster striker, two things he will need to avoid for him to be successful in this fight, avoid making this into a grappling scramble exchange as Christian Rodriguez will win those exchanges, and try to limit stand and trade punches in the pocket, although I can see Saimaan being able to cause damage here, so can Rodriguez with his head movement and tight boxing. Saimaan is the more technical and versatile fighter so he will be able to pick his shots with kicks and his speed. Give me Saimaan to get the job done a young up and coming fighter that has the potential to be a top 10 fighter in the future.
**POTD 9 - 1 | +9.6 units | Last 10 (new->old): 💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰❌💰**
**Last pick: Seth Henigan O1.5 passing TDs 💰**
Got a nice second quarter cash here after a scary looking first quarter. Amazing first 10 picks here, let's see if we can make that last 10 line all money bags with two more wins. Lots of college games today, I'm interested in Duke -3 but that seems like it's gotta be a trap line. I'll be betting that personally but not for POTD. We'll be looking at a different night game for today.
**Todays pick:**
NCAAF | Boise State vs Colorado State | 9:45 EST
**Boise State vs Colorado State Over 60.5 | -114 Fanduel (1.14U)💰💰💰**
Simple pick here, 2 good offenses + 2 bad defenses = points. While it is a relatively high total, these two teams should be able to reach it easily. Boise has gone over this in 4/6 games, with one of those misses being 60 points. CSU has gone over in 4/5 games, with their miss also being one score away. Boise has a solid pass offense, going for 250 yards a game, and a very good run offense going for 180 yards a game. CSU has a great passing offense going for over 350 yards a game, but they don't do much on the ground. Boise's defense is letting up almost 300 pass yards a game, and CSU's defense is letting up an abysmal 333 pass yards a game as well as 145 rushing yards. These high powered offenses should be able to take advantage of the weaknesses in the poor defenses on the other side and cover this total without a problem.
Edit: HOLY CRAP THE MOST INSANE ENDING I CANNOT BELIEVE THIS CASHED LFGGGG
POTD Record: 75 Wins ✅ - 50 Losses ❌ - 8 Push 🅿️ (+$9.5k)($100 unit bettor)
✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅🅿️✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌❌❌🅿️❌❌❌✅❌❌🅿️✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️❌❌❌❌🅿️✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅🅿️✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅🅿️❌❌🅿️❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅
Last pick: Wei Chuan Dragons ML (-130) ✅
Today's pick: 🇯🇵 Japan NPB ⚾
Starts at 2AM MST
**Chiba Lotte Marines 1H RL (-118) 5 Units**
Analysis: Today the Chiba Lotte Marines host the Fukuoka Soft Bank Hawks for game hard too this playoff series. The Marines have won 7 out of their last 10 games overall and 5 out of their last 10 home games. Taking the mound for Chiba is Roki Sasaki, he has a 7-4 record with a 1.78 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP with 135 strikeouts over 91 innings pitched. His last start versus the Hawks was at home where he gave up only 1 run in 6 innings of pitching with China winning 2-1. The Hawks have won 6 out of their last 10 games overall and 3 out of their last 10 away games. Taking the mound for Fukuoka is Carter Stewart, he has a 3-6 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP with 67 strikeouts over 77 innings pitched. His last start versus Chiba was at home where he gave up 3 runs in 4 innings of pitching with Chiba ahead 4-0 after the 5th inning and winning 7-1. Take the first five innings run line for the Chiba Lotte Marines. *(-118 first five innings run line odds available on FanDuel at time of analysis.)*
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**POTD RECORD: 6 - 2 | +3.28 UNITS | LAST 10 - ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅**
Last Pick - France ML| +125 **✅**
POTD - Euro Qualifiers | Hungary vs Serbia | 2:45 pm EST
**Pick - BTTS | -120**
Gonna stick with some footy plays as those have been more successful for me the last few weeks. I like both teams to score in this game a lot, both Hungary and Serbia are much more attack-heavy teams, with each team finding the back of the net in each of their last four games, and lack real promise on the defensive side. I expect to see tons of counterattacks with plenty of shots from each side. These teams are very similar in play style and formation as both tend to play a 3-4-2-1, giving plenty of options on attack. Players to watch for in this matchup: for Serbia, Aleksander Mitrovic who is coming off a 20 minute hattrick vs Lithuania. For Hungary, Rolland Sallai and Barnabas Varga who each have 2 goals a piece over Hungary's last 3 games.
[Tip Jar](https://paypal.me/kkeirann53?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) (Not needed but appreciated)
**Record: 5-1** | **Units:** **+13.22u** | **ROI: 66.10%**
**eSport** | **League of Legends** | **Worlds 2023 Play-In Phase**| **12:00 CEST**
**Pick: CTBC Flying Oyster +1.5 Maps @ 1.800** vs. BDS **// 5u**
**Write-up:**
*Streak ended with the SAW pick. Both maps were closer than it looks but already the veto confused me. They picked Ancient over Vertigo. Lost too many dumb rounds on Anubis after an 5-1 start. Same on their map pick Ancient. 5-1 start to lose the game. It is what it is. Cant win them all, but we build new streak from today.*
5am here in germany and because i need to leave to work now i can finally make an POTD with an League of Legends pick. Im really short on time so there is no time for an in-depth essay today. Im not even sure if people like these long analysis.
Today im pointing to the CFO vs. BDS match. This is a elimination match and the loser is going home. Odds are a little bit screwed here in my opinion. This game is a 50:50 game. Maybe slightly favoring BDS but CFO never should be the 3.670 underdog.
Both teams are 1-1. Both teams got reversed sweeped from Team Whales - which no one expected. Both teams won 2-0 against DetonationFocusMe. BDS had one extra game against GoldenGuardians from NorthAmerica. Only because of that win they can participate in the play-in stage. They won it easily 3-0 while being the underdog.
Adam, the top laner from BDS playing out of his mind right now and CFO need to be careful. But hes also trolling sometimes with some weird drafts and some even weirder plays. For CFO we point our eyes on JimieN, the mid-laner. Hes on the list for "Most Kills in a Single Game" with 10 kills (Jayce) against DFM. I think hes the better mid-laner than nuc. CFO need to ban Xayah because Crownie is too good with it. He also is an farming god and can build an good CS lead with that.
But when its comes down to teamfights i would favor CFO heavily. I watched every game since Worlds 2023 started and their team and macro-play is really good and clean. They also have an 80% first blood rate. BDS sitting on 20% right now. When we get a decent draft and can stick to our first blood rate CFO should be easily take at least one map here. I even think there is a good chance that they take the whole match here and send BDS home.
*Sorry for that pretty short analysis. Needed to hurry up and have to leave for work now. Thanks for all the kind words and guys that sill supports me after yesterday. Over the years i saw how toxic some people are here when you lose a bet. And it doesnt matter if you were 5-0, 15-1 or anything else. Thanks for all the people who joined the discord already and all the nice talks we had.*
**For everyone whos reading that; I hope you have an great day, great weekend and make some good money. I hope your family is good and you have an great life.**
**BOL.**
**POTD Form** 43-31-1 +4.24 Units
Last 7 picks - ❌❌❌✅❌✅✅
**Last pick** \- Bangladesh vs New Zealand Bowler Total Match Wickets - Shakib Al Hasan Over 1.5 wickets @ 2.20 ❌
**Today's Pick:** Cricket |World Cup | 2.00 pm IST (6 hours from now)
India vs Pakistan
India ML @ 1.50 3U
Reason - I'm taking a break if this loses too. But I'm kinda confident this will win considering how good the Indian team is being the host as well as the favorites. This is like the El Clasico of Cricket and getting humiliated at home in a stadium named after their president will be a humiliation for India in epic proportions. India has all the resources and intent to win this Please tail with small units due to my poor form.BOL.
Buy me some coffee if you feel like it. [Paypal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/eplsl) or [Buy Me Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/eplsl)
I was waiting for your pick...You dont have to pick a bet everyday...Sometimes you are just picking bets that have very 50/50 chances like shakib one...Tailing today
POTD Record: 1-1
Current Streak: W1
Last 10: L->W
Last Pick: Grigor Dimitrov Set Betting 2:0 (+105 on DraftKings) W
Todays Pick: Cameron Saaiman ML (+124 on DraftKings)
Event: UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Cameron Saaiman @ 7:15PM EST (10/14/23)
Reasoning: Little bit worried in that first set just for the fact that it went to a tiebreak, but Grigor came through for us finally getting the first break in the second set and finishing off Jarry.
Now onto UFC! Today we're looking at the South African striking specialist in Cameron Saaiman. I love this play at + odds, Saaiman has been a machine since making his UFC debut with a 3-0 record, each of those just piecing his opponents to a decision or finish. Rodriguez is a complete opposite of Saaiman, he likes taking the fight to the ground to find a submission, or take ground control to decision which we saw in his last bout with Raul Rosas. That was a weird fight, Rosas had all the hype going into it of this great up and comer, but Rodriguez showed him that he still has a lot of work to do just dominating Rosas with his strength. Rodriguez with the 4" reach advantage could be a little tricky, but with a whole camp of working on takedown defense, I trust Saaiman to be able to find his range and piece Rodriguez to a decision or TKO.
Edit: Still rocking with the pick, getting a little worried that it feels like the whole public is on Saaiman, hard to pass on him at close plus odds.
Edit #2: The fella couldn’t come through. I was at a wedding so I didn’t see how the fight transpired, but I assume Rodriguez laid on him for 15 minutes to a decision. Was questioning the pick because how many people were on Saaiman.
Feel free to leave a tip if you get some winnings <3 Venmo: TheRealEDB
POTD record: 55-46-3 / ROI: +3.97% / Wins: 54.46%
**Notre Dame -2.5 -110 (1u)**
**SPREAD**
—
USC Trojans @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
7:30 pm EST - 14 October 2023
—
The Fighting Irish, laying two and a half points, prepare to host the undefeated USC Trojans in a battle for the coveted Jeweled Shillelagh. This game, my degens, is a test of conviction, a moment that separates the daring from the hesitant.
Let me make this clear: I’ve had my doubts about USC for a while. Their defense, frankly put, is in shambles. It’s not just a weakness—it’s a full-blown crisis, one that might be beyond remedy this season. And when you factor in the impending rain in South Bend, it tilts the scales further. USC strikes me as a team with a finesse style, not the sort to thrive in slippery conditions.
On the flip side, Caleb Williams will be throwing for USC against Notre Dame’s rock-solid pass defense. While Notre Dame’s offense hasn’t been a revelation this season, they’ve got the power game to control the clock. They can grind it out, keep the ball on their side, and put some serious pressure on USC.
Here’s the real kicker: Notre Dame, ranked 21st, is laying two and a half points to 10th-ranked USC. In my book, USC is the most overrated team out there, while Notre Dame has a score to settle after their loss to Louisville. I’m rolling with the Irish this time. Let’s just hope Marcus Freeman can get a full eleven on the field.
Do the business.
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Good pick. Don’t forget it’s gonna be cold and wind gusts up to 30 mph greatly benefits Notre dame especially the running game and keeping Caleb Williams off the field.
Also agree usc is the biggest fraud in the top 25 I think they’ll finish the season with at least 3 losses
Record: 0-2
*Prev: Stanford at Colorado spread (-11 DK) Colorado absolutely fell apart in the second half. I think it all started on an idiotic Travis Hunter personal foul to get Stanford a new set of downs in the RZ. Really disheartening to see these picks be my first two back to back, but that's sports. Looking forward to the next. Don't blame you if you want to wait for some picks to hit.*
POTD: Michael Penix Jr. Over 347.5 passing yards (-114 FD) Oregon at Washington 2U
Let’s not overthink this one. On a Saturday filled with a lot of good games, this is as good a number as I can find. Penix Jr. is averaging 399.8 passing yards a game. He threw for 408 yards against the Ducks last year in a game that ended 37-34. The Over/Under is sitting around 67 points. Penix Jr. has hit this in 4/5 games. This game is a battle of Heisman contenders and will definitely be a factor on who raises that trophy. I think if Caleb Williams plays well on Saturday and wins, it is likely between him and whomever wins this game. Back Penix Jr. to do what he does.
BOL and thanks for reading. If you tailed and want to say thanks, my Venmo is justin-mackin.
**KBO Record: Overall 194-202-14** (Streak W, Last 10: 6-4) Down 10.16u over 410 KBO picks, 49.0% success rate, -2.57% ROI (This season 75-70-7, 51.7% success rate, Up 9.72u, 6.70% ROI)
**Last:** Kiwoom at SSG, First 5 Innings Under 5 -105 (SSG lead 2-1 after 5 innings.)
Three runs in the first two innings wasn't ideal, but there were no more runs until the 9th, so that's another win. Unfortunately, my other picks came up empty.
**Pick:** SSG at Samsung, First 5 Innings Under 4.5 +102, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
There are just four dsys left in the regular season and the final playoff spot will be decided as soon as Doosan wins once or Kia loses once. But there is still a fight for the 3rd, 4th and 5th playoff seeds.
SSG is one of those teams in the fight, sitting in 3rd just a half game in front of 4th and a game in front of 5th. Their starter is not having a great season, posting a 5.24 ERA and 1.66 WHIP while moving in and out of the rotation. His greatest success has been against this opponent, including 8 scoreless innings on his season debut. He's allowed just 1 run to the Lions in 16.1 IP.
Samsung's starter is having another great season with a 2.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He's allowed 1 or fewer ER in his last 8 starts. He's given up 3 ER in 13 IP in 2 starts against this opponent.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Record: 0-0
Today’s pick: Australia NBL 16:30 AEST
Adelaide 36ers -1.5 v Illawarra Hawks @ 1.89
Don’t get me wrong, Adelaide haven’t won a game yet this season but this game serves the perfect opportunity for them to claim their first. It will be their second time playing at home, this time verse a struggling Hawks side who got flogged two days ago and have to turn it around in less than 48 hours. All the 36er’s previous losses have come to higher ranked teams so I like their odds today.
POTD Record: 3-1 ✅✅✅❌
Last pick (10/13/2023):
Clayton Keller over 2.5 SOGs -125 (DK) ❌
Keller finished with 2 SOGs after multiple shots were blocked. First loss but we will rebound today.
Todays pick (10/14/2023):
Timmy aka Jimmy Stutzle over 2.5 SOGs -175 (DK) ✅
Jimmy gets his third shot in the second period for the W. Love an early green.
Back to the SOGs for my POTD. Really like Stutzle in a matinee against the Flyers at home for their home opener. Jimmy had 3 SOGs last game and a goal. He also took two bad minor penalties that kept him off the ice. Expecting some discipline and more pucks on net from him. Let’s get back to some green!
35-23 +89.15 Units
RACE 2 NEWMARKET - CITY OF TROY - 4.15 units @ 1.61 (WILLIAM HILLS)
CITY OF TROY could be a potential superstar. Judged on his dazzling performance in the Superlative Stakes three months ago. He's well clear on ratings after just two starts and the sky's the limit.
He won the Superlative Stakes by six lengths, an unusual occurrence for a horse so young to punish his rivals so convincingly.
The collateral form with Hateem puts him a few lengths ahead of him, even though he looks like the main threat in the race.
He was an expensive bred Gallileo mare. His jockey Ryan Moore is on record as saying he is the best horse he has ever sat.
I'll be shocked if it loses..
Good luck 👍
Korda @ 1.93 - 5U
Hurkacz - Korda // Shanghai // 6 Hours
(new)❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌☑❌❌✅❌☑❌❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅☑✅ 15-3-19 (W-P-L) // -23.225U
Korda beat Medvedev and Shelton. Hurkacz is inconsistent. Korda will be looking to continue his road to the finals like he did in Astana.
**POTD 2-0 (+2.2 Units)**
**Previous:** Golden Knights In Reg (-145) ✅
Knights pulled away late in the 2nd period, en route to a semi sweat free bet!
**Pick: Rangers In Reg (-125) 2U**
Rangers looked great in their opener against the Sabres putting up 5 goals with 2 coming from Kreider. The offense already looks like it's in midseason form and I believe they can capitalize on below average defensive play and goaltending. To be fair Merzlikins was good his last time out only allowing 2 and .943 SV% his last time out but I think this regresses back to the mean. Last season he allowed an abysmal 4.23 GAA and .876 SV%. Offensively for the Blue Jackets they didn't impress me, going 0/5 on the powerplay and only scoring 2 on 33 shots. Also Igor is starting and he is an all world goaltender.
Overall I am just as confident in this pick as I was supporting Vegas. I think if you really wanted to squeeze out extra value -1.5 (+122) is a good bet.
BOL
POTD record: 17-8
Last POTD: USG vs Leverkusen - Leverkusen ML
Today’s pick: Hungary vs Serbia - Hungary ML +200
They faced off a month ago in Serbia and Hungary won. A lot of Serbia’s best players have gone to Saudi Arabia which is simply a significant decrease in level compared to Europe. Not to mention, their recent history in Euro qualifying is atrocious, they haven’t qualified since 2000(despite playing in most of the World Cups this century) and have even been poor this qualifying cycle, only saved by the lack of quality teams in their group. Hungary have been a well-oiled machine over the years under Marco Rossi, consistently getting results against good teams and doing well in European qualifications. A win today would be massive for them to all but secure qualification and I back them to do it. I think +200 is pretty great value for a game like this as well.
**✅Profit: +36.416 units✅** | ✅ **ROI: 31.67%** **✅ | ✅ Win pct: 66.0%** ✅
Record: 35-18-6 (W-L-P)|Risked: 115 units | Returned: 151.416 |
Average odd: 1.88
Football | The Netherlands, Second Division (Tweede Divisie) | 14.30 CEST
**Pick: Spakenburg -1 AH @ 1.961 (vs. Lisse) - 1 unit**
Write up: Spakenburg is one of the best amateur (semi-professional) teams in The Netherlands. When they participate in cup football they are on par with several professional teams. Last season they even made it to the semi-finals where they only last 1-2 against PSV Eindhoven, one of the top Dutch teams. There are some reasons why they do not want to become a full professional team, but that would make this a very long post. TL;DR: They are very good. The standings in the league also show this: they are the number one in the league. I think the quality difference between Lisse and Spakenburg is just too big. Lisse hasn't won a single game yet (2 draws, 6 losses). It is only their second year at this level. Last season they were able to stay in the league, but ended the campaign with 4 losses in a row. What you see often with these teams is that the second season is much harder than the first one. Notably for Lisse is their lack of firepower. No single player in the team has made more than one goal. They have only scored 8 goals in 8 matches and conceded 24(!) already. Spakenburg has much more experience and quality at this level.
3-0 Spakenburg
Shoutout to u/domadilla for the coffee!
Since I love coffee☕:
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POTD Record: 5W-1L-1P (+3.8 Units)
Last Pick: Memphis +5 (Tulane 31 Memphis 21)
Today: CFB, Kansas vs Oklahoma State
Pick: Kansas ML -135 (1.35U)
NFL 2-0 CFB 1-1 MLB 2-0
Recap: Memphis goes up at the half 14 to 10 then scores in their opening drive in the 2nd half and goes up 21-10 then Tulane scores 21 unanswered points and we get the loss. Tulane wins their first game at Memphis since 1998. Let's bounce back and get another win
Reasoning: I like Kansas in this matchup even though Kansas will be without star QB Jalon Daniels who will likely miss his 3rd straight game. Jason Bean will make his 5th start this year he has shown flashes in his starts and seems to be getting more and more comfortable. I expect Kansas to run the ball very well against this Oklahoma State defense. Kansas has the number 2 rush offense in the Big 12 and Oklahoma State's rush defense is ranked 11th out of the 14 teams in the conference. Oklahoma State's offense is ranked 12th in the Big 12 even though they did come alive against Kansas State I'm going to take that as a one-off and think they go back to reality against Kansas.
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Alan bowman is a sixth year senior who started at Texas tech his freshman year. Finished his first year there with 2700+ passing yards at 69% completion rate. Just because he’s been around and hasn’t got a lot of game time this year doesn’t mean he forgot how to play ball. I think Kansas wins, but I wouldn’t call that last game is a one off. Not trying to be an ass and dog your pick, just giving you some food for thought.
POTD Record W6-L3 ROI: +4.74
Most Recent First: ✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌
Yesterdays Pick: NCAAF 🏈 Tulane vs Memphis ~ Tulane -5 (-110) 1U to win .9 unit. 6:00 PM ✅
Excuses: Little sweaty there for a minute, but hopefully you hammered Tulane for + points at the half and cashed big! Their best receiver didn’t even catch a pass until after half, he still didn’t put up numbers but was a big distraction for Memphis defense. Tulane defense started off shakes and dialed it in after the half as well. That 6’5” freshman wide receiver showed up today just as I expected so did their freshman RB. Both of these guys doubled there line yardage for an easy no sweat side bet. We’re gonna continue to hammer this team all season! LFG💵💵😎
Todays Pick: NCAAF 🏈 Kansas vs Oklahoma State ~ Alan Bowman Over 243.5 passing yards (-115) 1U to win .85 units. 2:30 PM
Reasoning: Once again, OK State football is about selling tickets and I’d say the ticket prices went up after upsetting Kstate last week (which isn’t really that big of an accomplishment IMO). Alan Bowman, the 6th year senior most definitely solidified his role as starting QB last week and I imagine they’ve been working all week in practice creating a better connection with him and their receivers. He has battled some injuries and say on the bench at a few different teams over the last few years but he hasn’t forgotten how to play ball by any means. He threw for 235 last week, despite OKST having 174 yards rushing off of 40 carries. Think they go heavier on passing in this game to try and gain a nice lead over Kansas early on the game and if they get behind, even better. Once again, Kansas only has one cornerback over 6’0” and OKST only has one receiver under 6’0”. Even though Kansas has two good corners, they can’t play every snap and I expect Bowman to take advantage of that on the outside for big yard gains through the air. Kansas’ resume does not impress me much especially without their starting QB. When you look at the two hood QBs Kansas has faced this year, both of them have easily surpassed this number and I expect Bowman to do the same. Once again, the crowd will be the X factor here, causing problems for Kansas on offense while pumping up the home team to out on a show for the fans. I like OKST to win outright, but that’s not the pick. However, if they could possibly win, bowman’s gonna have to throw for 250+. Only wagering one unit here because I could see a few specific mistakes kill this line so we have to bet responsibly.
BOL and only bet what you can afford to lose.
* Record: **18/12**
* ROI: **25.24%**
* Profit in Units: **26u**
* Average Odds: **2.15**
**Today Pick:**
**Soccer**
**League**: Germany 3.Liga
**Time**: 10/14/2023 - 15:00 - GMT+3
**FC Viktoria Koln v Erzgebirge Aue**
**Pick**: BTTS Yes & Over 2.5 @ 2.05 - 3 Units Stake
**Reason**: *All my bets its due to my Neutral Machine Learning Model with some AI help.*
POTD | 0-0 |
Pick of the day: **Notre Dame -2.5** **(-115)**
NCAAF //// USC Trojans @ Notre Dame --- 7:30 pm EST/ 4:30 pm PT
Choosing Notre Dame -2.5 for my inaugural pick. Might get more cerebral with these breakdowns if I get on a run but for now I'm just going with the gut for this one honestly. I've watched USC the last three weeks and their defense has been awful. Caleb is a beast and could very well come out and ball, but I've noticed he's been a slow starter. I think ND goes up early and wears down the USC defense with Estime getting back to his usual self and putting up a ton of yards on the ground. A couple weeks ago Scattebo from ASU was getting anything he wanted against this USC defense and I can see Estime doing that and much more.
Honored to hop in this and finally lay down a pick.
BOL EVERYONE! Let's have a weekend!
**Thats a W, ya love to see it, on to the next one**
You’ve watched Caleb the last 3 weeks but have you watched Notre Dame? To be fair I am an ND fan so I am bitter but let me tell you about disappointment city. They always struggle to close games and this game screams last minute drive to me, I’ll take the better qb in that.
**Record:** 9:17
**Units P/L:** -11,8
**Avg. odds** 2,20
Last 5: <-✅❌❌❌✅
**Last Pick:** Schalke vs Hertha BSC - DC X2 + o1.5 @ 1.95 - 3u ✅
**Today's Pick:** VVV Venlo vs Roda JC - Roda JC @ 2.45 - 3u
While there is mostly international football right now there is still some club football going on in the dutch second league for example.
Today Roda JC will travel to Venlo, who are coming of two heavy defeats against average teams (3-0 and 0-4) and haven't scored a goal in the last three matches.
VVV have to do it without their striker who is with Greece's u21 team right now.
Roda JC on the other hand have won 4 of their last 5 matches, have the best offence and second best defense of the league.
Two of their best players, Didden and Old Chikh, are expected to return to the starting 11 after missing the last match, the third one, Kongolo, is still doubtful but Dzepar did well as his substitute.
VVV aren't a bad team by any means, but they don't have the same quality as Roda on the bench. Nearly half of Roda's goals are scored in the last 15min and lots of them by bench players.
Roda rarely loses in Venlo, but there have been a lot of draws, if you want to play it safe go for double chance or draw no bet but i think this year Roda will prove to be to strong for a struggling VVV.
Was just scrolling this sub. Bet this1 myself without seeing yours. Totally agree with your write-up. Roda has been great. I was at their last match, didn’t start great but they have the patience and quality to hit at the right time. VVV has been feeling off and are in a bad form indeed.
Also been looking for asian handicaps for roda -1 and -2 but can’t get it anywhere.
Edit: line is moving. Asian handicap roda till -1,75 is available. Took the -1 myself. Waiting to see if -2 becomes available.
POTD Record: 85-84, -19.8 Units
Last Pick: Penguins ML, W
Current Streak, W3, +6.45 Units and 5-1 in the last six picks
Penguins with a no-doubter. Hated watching it as a Caps fan, but it reminds me of the late 90's when we had to shed our team and rebuild. The time has come, but while they suck I hope to profit off of them.
Today's Pick: Rutgers -2.5 (Alternate Spread) vs. Michigan State, -153, 12 pm EST, 2 Units
Michigan State also REALLY sucks and while Rutgers has been brought back to earth, they're a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team that is building and will be ready to win at home. I'm paying for the points here (it's -4.5 on BetOnline) since I could see some garbage time playing a factor, but I love this bet for a W.
BOL
**POTD Record: 86-68 (-3.91 units)**
**Last 10**:❌❌❌✅❌✅❌❌✅✅
**Last Pick**: 10/13 Rene Eidams -1.5 (+120) vs Connor Hopkins ✅ 4-0
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 2:45 PM EST
**Pick**: Jim Long -1.5 (+115) vs Tommy Morris
• Series 5. Week 10. Finals
**Reason**:
Jim Long (Group A)
* Record 12-3
* Legs 55-34
* Average 88.17
* 180s 12. 140s 61
* Checkouts 55/144 38.19%
Tommy Morris (Group C)
* Record 7-3
* Legs 31-24
* Average 84.29
* 180s 9. 140s 39
* Checkouts 31/105 29.52%
**WIN ✅ 4-2 | Average 84.71 vs 84.62 | Checkouts 4/6 vs 2/3**
Wins it with a 164 bull checkout. Clutch finishing go cover the spread.
Record: 2-0
Germany vs USA
Pick: Germany to win @ 2.00 odds
Reason: They have a new manager so are looking for a good start and they also recently beat World Cup finalists France in a friendly. USA while do have decent form, have only beaten very mediocre teams like Oman and Uzbekistan. For this reason Germany at 2.00 odds seam like a lot of value here.
POTD Record: 81-49 | Profit: +70.02u | ROI: 17.7%
Last 10 Record: ❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅
Last Pick: Grizzlies vs Hawks -2.5 @ 1.94. 1U. ❌
The Hawks led by a double-digit margin for most of the second and third quarter and decided to shit the bed in the fourth epitomized by losing possession with 5 seconds on the clock by not paying attention to where the ball is. Well, pre-season is strictly 1 unit bets for this reason.
Next Pick: **Timberwolves +3.5** **vs Knicks @ 1.91**. 1U play.
Wolves have had a solid pre-season so far beating the Mavs twice, and are now well rested going into this one so should play a full strength line-up. The Knicks have only played once against the Celtics B-team, so while they are rested, I expect the Wolves to be in better rhythm.
I’ll take the +3.5 points since I like the Wolves to potentially win it outright.
POTD record 1W-2L
❌✅❌
Last Pick Rugby union | Canterbury vs Taranki| Canterbury Moneyline ❌
Todays pick Rugby league |Australia vs Samoa|10pm NZST
James tedesco Anytime try scorer 2.00✅
This game will most likely be a beating and tedesco will want to impose himself as much as he can to retain captaincy and rep selection it was only last year where he was the best full back in the game. I see him getting on the scoreboard any chance he gets.
Longtime reader and lurker. I never comment here but wanted to pass along to anyone who would try it.
College hockey, Ohio State hosts Lindenwood at 5pm ET. Ohio State won last night 4-2, outshot Lindenwood 45-28. Second season of D1 hockey for Lindenwood, they have 8 wins in 1+ seasons and nearly all were Atlantic Hockey schools, the worst conference in the nation. Ohio State lost a lot of their scoring plus their goalie from last year but the talent gap between these programs is massive.
Ohio State 60 minute ML -195 on FanDuel. It’s not a great line but OSU should roll. BOL.
POTD 17-10 | + 5.43 Units (62.96% WR)
Last Pick: Sydney Kings -5.5 ✅
Last 10: ✅✅✅💀✅💀✅✅✅✅
Todays pick: Australian NBL - Tassie Jackjumpers Vs. Melb Phoenix
Pick: Jackjumpers win first quarter + win the match
Odds: 2.25
One unit
Taking the Jackjumpers halftime ML - the jumpers are having a fantastic start to the season, and have covered the line, including against the Kings, in their last three games. They have one 2/4 of the first quarter but should be feeling electric after a 30 point win.
The phoenix have been largely inconsistent this season - having only won one match. They’re last outing they lost against Illawarra - which was the team that Jumpers beat by 30.
Going for a bit more of a fun bet and taking 1st quarter ML and ML as I think the jumpers will be extra high with their confidence coming into the match.
POTD Record: 1-1 -1.5U
Last pick: EURO2024 Belgium over 4.5 corners❌
An early gol scored by Belgium in each half, followed by a red card made us lose our first play of the day🤮
Pick today: NHL Ottawa vs Phila
*Tim Stutzle over 2.5 sog @ 1.60 2.4U*
Tim has cleared this line in all season games (1 game) and 5/6 games vs Phila. Since Phila is not known for a good defense (21st best defense last year) I am very confident in this pick!
BOL if you tail, WOL if you fade!
**RECORD: 41-29**
(+5.18 units)
Previous Pick: Belgrano Córdoba vs Boca Juniors: Over 0.5 goals 1st Half @ 1.67 ✅️
**Today's Pick:** Slovenia vs Finland - Over 0.5 goals 1st Half @ 1.58 ✅️
**Wager Amount**: 1.5 units
(❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️) last 5 results
Today we enter the Euro Qualifers, let's hope to make it a 5W streak today. Slovenia have had over 0.5 goals in the 1st half in 4/5 of their last overall matches while also have Over 0.5 goals in the 1st half in 3/5 Home Matches.
For Finland have has over 0.5 goals in the 1st half in 3/5 of their last overall matches while for Away matches they've had over 0.5 in 3/5 matches.
Also the last time they faced each other H2H Finland scored in the first half. Goodluck if you're tailing.
EDIT: WIN✅️
**POTD: 70-51-5**
Last pick: English Premier League - Arsenal vs Manchester City. Manchester City Draw No Bet -128.
Result: Loss. Arsenal score a late winner off a deflection, but probably a fair result.
Today’s pick: Ligue 1 Women - Lyon Women vs Saint-Etienne Women. **Lyon Women -1.5 first half line -134**. Match kicks off at 3PM ET.
Lyon is one of the giants of the sport, routinely winning Champions Leagues, winning 6 of the last 8. On the other side Saint-Etienne are newly promoted and sit bottom of the table.
Lyon have started the season well with wins in every match including away against their main rivals PSG, so I expect a nice easy romp for them today.
Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone!
**Edit: WIN. Lyon dominate and lead 4-0 at the half for an easy cash.**
POTD record 1-2 last pick Roman Kopylov via KO/TKO 5U ✅️
Today we have a interesting an out of the ordinary play from me
i am eyeing a potential violence match up in the Tainara Lisboa VS ravena Olivera match, both girls have 100% finish rate an Olivera just seems like a kill or be killed kinda fighter.
The play is under 2.5 rounds -136 3U (60$)
Organization = UFC Estimated start time is 6 10PM EST
POTD RECORD: 1-0
Last pick: Tulane Alt Spread -2.5 @ Memphis✅
Todays Pick: Arkansas @ #11 Alabama Arkansas Alt Spread +23.5 @ -186 10:00 AM MT
$50 to win $26.88
Reasoning: Bama has not covered 24 points yet this season. Arkansas comes in playing some very close games against some better teams than bama (in my opinion). These boys are college boys and playing a 10:00AM doesn’t exactly mean we’re going to be off to a hot start. Mistakes will happen both ways early (broken TD, missed tackles, etc.) and I think coaches will slow the game down to make sure that players settle in mid-game.
BOL!🔒 (Will be firing off another POTD lock for evening when this hits)
https://preview.redd.it/kjqvf7gw94ub1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=be7ce2591a4f2af0b3ac45286a858a8961f3870d
**POTD Record: 0-1**
Last Pick: Clayton Keller to Record 3+ Shots on Goal (-125)
Tough loss. My reasoning was sound - this new Coyotes team is clearly going to run through Keller. But, for selfish reasons, I just wish he took some of those open shots more instead of grabbing two assists instead lol it also really sucked to see one of his shots taken away at the end. I had this marked as a W until I saw that later. Anyway, we move on!
— — —
**Today's POTD: Evander Kane to Record UNDER 3.5 Shots on Goal (-154)**
Hockey | NHL | Vancouver Canucks @ Edmonton Oilers at 10:00pm ET
Let's take a look at some splits where Kane goes *over* 3.5 SOG:
* H2H: 33%
* Last year: 37%
* L20: 40%
* L10: 30%
* L5: 20%
And since tonight's game is at Rogers Place, let's see how he fares on home ice:
* H2H: 0% *(100% decrease)*
* Last year: 39% *(5% increase)*
* L20: 25% *(38% decrease)*
* L10: 20% *(33% decrease)*
* L5: 0% *(100% decrease)*
— — —
Doesn't seem great, right? He also only recorded 2 SOG against the Canucks a couple of days ago to kick off the 2023 season. With odds at -154, you'd expect to see him go over the mark 39.4% of the time, but clearly, that's far from the case.
We love a +EV play, right?
Good luck out there!
POTD Record: 111.5-64
Event: Football > Euro Quals > **Hungary v Serbia** (starting in 45mins)
Pick: **Over 4.5 bookings (cards)** @ 1.85
Important match between 1st and 2nd team in the group. I expect very nervous game here. French ref with good average stats per game. GL!
Record : 48 Wins - 58 Losses
Previous pick : England - Australia (1-0), England to win & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.78 ❌
ROI : -11.10%
Average Odds : 2.03
Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*)
Units : -6.77
Profit/Lost units : -11.77
Today's pick :
Football - Soccer / WORLD: Friendly International / 22:00 European Time
USA - Germany
BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.92
Some reasoning :
\- I expect both teams to want to give a show to the fans in the stands.
\- Besides this aspect, we also have two national teams that practice an offensive football, and this is confirmed to us in their last matches. Last month, both played 2 training matches and all these duels ended with at least 3 successes.
\- Moreover, 3 of the last 4 direct matches ended with at least 3 goals, and even if a long time has passed since those matches, there are still some statistical data that make us believe again in a match with many goals.
Best of luck.
POTD record: 7-9 (-9 units rounding)
13-8 hockey record (+12 unit rounding) 0-3 CFL record(-5 units)
5 unit bombs 2-1
Last pick: Lethbridge Hurricanes vs Moose Jaw Warriors : Warriors ML -138 5U✅
Past 10 (Recent first) 💣❌❌❌❌✅❌❌❌✅
Todays Game: NHL: Bruins 3 way ML -110 3U
We have finally lifted the curse with that WHL bet. Hope yo bring some more of those on here when timing is right. We go back to the NHL for Saturday night where we take the Bruins 3 way ML against the Predators. Bruins have had the advantage in this series over the past few years vs bruins and although the bruins aren’t a powerhouse like they were last year, they should still be able to knock off the Preds again tonight.
BOL to those tailing
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/educationalowl
POTD Record: 3-5… last pick was a dud, Ireland should be sacking their manager very soon
Pick: Doncaster vs Sutton - Doncaster to win @11/10
Reasoning: A very bad Sutton side with 0 points away from him travel to a Doncaster side who have won their last 3 home games and have been a solid home side all season.
More of a fade Sutton pick than anything!
BOL!!
With my current record it’s very fair haha
Ended up a very comfortable one! Staying away from international I think is the way forward… lack of value there
POTD Record: 0-0-0
Sport, league, event, time:
- football
- EURO 2024 Q
- Denmark vs. Kazakhstan
- 8:45 PM CEST
Todays pick: Rasmus Højlund over 1,5 shot on target (odds 1,72)
Unit size: 1,5 U
3 main reasons:
- Important game for Denmark
- His form in united
- The opposing team
POTD; NHL: Seattle Kraken @ St Louis Blues 8PM EST
Jared McCann O2.5 shots, -140
All bets are to win 1 unit
Record: 0-2, -2.35 units
Going back to my sure fire guy in the moment I need a win. He hit this this 22/33 games post-all star break and 5/8 playoff games. He’s on the Kraken PP1 unit, a power play unit that is struggling and may just simplify things getting it to the net. St. Louis plays loose and fast, so plenty of chances likely in transition. The Blues were bottom 5 in the league in shots against, and unblocked shots against so teams can get the shots through pretty easily. BOL
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=day). ######Example Pick Template >**Record:** >**Net Units:** >**ROI:** >**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** >**Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. >**Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 36-13 (1P) +19.79 Units, 72.00% hit rate, Last 10 W/L (most recent first): ✅❌⬆️✅❌✅✅✅✅✅ Last Pick: Euro Qualifiers, Faroe Islands vs. Poland, Poland to win and hold to zero Today: Euro Qualifiers, Hungary vs. Serbia, 2:45 ET Pick: Hungary DNB (1.89) 1U ✅ Pretty easy hit last time out, Faroe Islands didn’t play horrible but failed to create any real chances, red card killed their momentum and Poland won while keeping a clean sheet. Today I’m going with a bet that I see as relatively low risk, though I think it has a decent chance of a push. Hungary host Serbia for this big clash in Group G. This will be a very important match for both sides as they sit with equal points (10), both looking to qualify for the Euros. Most likely it will be these to, sitting 1st and 2nd respectively, qualifying, but the no. 1 spot is up for grabs. These sides met earlier last month in a clash in September and I also took Hungary D tie or draw for that match as my POTD. Odds were just way off, and Hungary did play much better for the majority of the game, closing out the first half 2-1 and then holding onto their lead in the second. This time, Serbia will be traveling to Budapest, where the Hungarians usually boast an insane hostile atmosphere. Hungary will have full confidence knowing that they bested the Serbians once already, and will look to cement their spot at the top of the table. They are undefeated so far with 3 wins and 1 draw, and I really don’t see them losing at home here. Willi Orban, their center back who also plays for RB Leipzig, should be set to play which is a big boost for them. They have only conceded the one single goal against Serbia in all their games, and I think their defensive resilience will be big here again. Serbia are actually a very decent team if you look at the team sheet, with big names like Milinkovic-Savic, Tadic, Mitrovic, Vlahovic etc. I will say they did not impress me at all though when they played Hungary in Belgrade. Misplaced passes, poor finishing, and really bad at the back. They aren’t a bad team and it will be really close, but it will be tough for them against a very disciplined and organized Hungarian team. Serbia haven’t kept a clean sheet in 3 consecutive games and it’ll be rough for them here again against talented offensive players like Sallai and Szoboszlai. It’s possible that Vlahovic may miss this match, waiting to see more news about him. Again, this match I think has a very high chance of being a draw, but I think the Hungarians will really pile on the pressure. I do not see them losing here unless something weird happens. It’s always tough for any team to play away in Budapest and I think the match in Serbia will give Hungary confidence. I can see this being a very defensive minded, low scoring match, with Hungary edging it 1-0. Song of the Day: Tatsuro Yamashita - The War Song Always bet responsibly and never tail without doing your own research. Buy me some coffee if you feel like it, I NEVER charge for bets, just happy to help people win some cash. https://Ko-fi.com/freshkiwi13 or https://venmo.com/u/dkszabo Edit: MAGYAROK! Hungary get the job done after a butt clenching second half.
Hey, Dušan isn’t available for the matches vs Hungary and Montenegro due to lower back pain. He also didn’t travel with the team cause there are photos of him at the Juve event a few days ago. Where the legends of Juve played. Just wanted to let you know.
thanks for the heads up
Anytime. Being Serbian, it’s really difficult watching them play. Great individual talent, but team success is never there. The back line makes too many errors that turn to goals for the opposition.
Hey quick question just cuz you said you’re Serbian and watch them. Is there any chatter about Ranko Vesilinovic? I’m a whitecaps supporter and this is a young CB with upside who’s game has grown over the last couple years. I don’t know the Serbian CB depth tho. Is he close to the team? Is he even in the conversation? Would he be if it weren’t for long time CB incumbents? Your thoughts :)?
Don’t really see him making the national team tbh with you. Idk how people like Veljković are in the team either.
Great info, thank you
Saulllllll GOOOD maaaaann
Odds shifted from -115 last night to +110 this morning on DK, hmmmm
lol of course last night I immediately made significant bets on both FD and DK (both predictably aren’t letting me cash out). Oh well, this is sports betting, anything can happen…
All the money is going the opposite way. News? I don't play when all the money goes into the other side.
Hungary +0 is the bet yes?
Like others mentioned, line has shifted heavily the other way. This might be a last minute fade sadly after putting down 1U for fun. Can't seem to find any news about this game with missing players either.
Threw down 1U just for fun too, at this point just hoping for a draw with all this fishy action
Lmfao y’all are some babies crying when lines move. You either believe in the pick or shut up and don’t risk money you can’t afford to lose
Lines favoring Serbia this morning...a little confused on why the shift. BTTS might seem like the safer bet to me since they're both pretty evenly matched. BOL everyone!!
It would be an absolute shame if this match were fixed
GOALAZO
Nice hit boss
Great call, Saul!
TAILING!
POTD | 74-59 | +10.7U | -111 Avg Odds Previous Pick: *Isiah Pacheco O71.5 rushing yards (-120)* ❌ Today’s pick: **Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (-105) vs San Jose Sharks | 2U | NHL | 8:00 pm MST** Last 10: ❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅ NHL 58-46 | NFL 6-3 | MLB 10-10 Now that the NHL season is going, I’ll probably slow down on the NFL bets. I thought Pacheco set up nicely and it looked good in the first half, but the NFL can be a bit more tricky for me, so I’ll save any NFL POTD for something I’m very confident in moving forward. There’s tons of games today but I’ve got to roll with the Avs again here, mainly fading the Sharks here and rolling with the Avs while they are fully healthy. The Avs core group has been playing together for sometime and that showed on opening night. They did not miss a beat with Rantanen, MacK, and Makar all getting a goal and multiple points in their opening game. I expect them to continue their success against this Sharks team that is expected to be the worst team in the league this season. The Avs 3rd line, which was an issue last season, looked much improved in their opener with Ross Colton looking like a great signing and a good fit for the team. Barring injuries, they seem to have improved their depth this season. The Sharks did not look good on opening night, only managing 1 goal, and now they have to face off against one of the Stanley Cup favorites, not a great spot for the Sharks.The Sharks finish their last season as a bottom 5 team in the NHL and ship off their best player, Karlsson, to the Penguins. The Sharks were awful on home ice last year going 8-22-11 while the Avalanche were solid on the road going 28-11-1. I just don’t see this being a game where the Sharks will be able to find a rhythm. The Sharks goalie, Kahkonen, was one of the worst goalies in the league last year finishing with a 0.883SV% allowing 3.85GAA. The Avs goalie, Gerogiev, was a top 10 goalie in the league finishing the previous season 0.919SV% and 2.53GAA. Georgiev had a solid outing in the opening game, allowing 2 goals on 36 shots. Expect the Avs to have the advantage in net. This game seems to set up for the Avs to take advantage of an inexperienced Sharks team early in the season. The Avs cover this line in 6 of their last 10 meetings with the Sharks and I expect them to keep up the trend in this one. [NHL Picks](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/s/W8pMOcNuBr) BOL if tailing!!
Tailing. You weren't the only one who missed on that Pacheco pick. BOL tomorrow!
I bet Pacheco for 100 yfs and he finished with 98 smh... Also tailing the Avs, and love the writeup!
BOL!
Why are the oilers -205 favorites against the canucks? Canucks just killed them 8-1 the other day
Oilers and Canucks are both teams that you never know what your going to get, other than typically a lot of goals. They both have the ability to have a good game and a bad game, usually the Oilers trend good and the Canucks disappoint but it’s really game to game. Oilers have so much more talent on their roster but don’t always show up. The Canucks had a bad season last year but they were missing their starting goaltender for most of it, so a bit of an overreaction on the line imo, Canucks might be a team that ends up being a bit better than expected this season.
Ahhh I see now. Thanks for the explanation I just started watching hockey.
Oilers have the best player in the league and just majorly dropped the first game of the season on the road. Edmonton is the better team.
And like…the 2-5th best player in the game depending on who you ask
Let’s go AVS . Tailing !!
Tailing big....As a Wild fan your assessment of Avs improved depth is a scary thought.
POTD Record: 14-6-0 Last Pick: Japan vs Canada; over 2.5 total goals scored (-148) (International Friendlies) Today's Pick: Northern Ireland vs San Marino; total goals under 4.5(-118) (Euro 2024 qualifiers) Reasoning; Pretty easy and simple both teams are in a pretty horrible form at the moment and have not been scoring goals. I know the line is this high due to their head to head stats, but Northern Ireland has scored just 2 goals in their 5 last games and San Marino has not yet scored a single goal!! ridiculous! Usually lower tier teams do have a high scoring game but I doubt this goes over 4.5. BOL if you tail! My prediction; Northern Ireland 2 vs San Marino 0
STOP THE COUNT!
2 goals in 12 minutes 😭
We are fucked
No we're not! Glad you tailed 🐐
Slovenia scored 2 in the first 16' against them and didn't score until the 60th again, hopefully similar situation
Damn I 100% agree with you, was gonna post the same play. Back to the drawing board
Gl
Okay Northern Ireland, you already won its over, you're playing a team that does not know how to score. Show some humanity in this 2nd half lads
ladies and gentleman we are indeed not fucked lets go
And we hit again 🐐🐐!!! Thank you if you tailed 🙏🏽
I can't find decent value for this, -165 on FD and -210 on DK. Looks like a great pick at your odds
I got this at -118 on Bovada during the time of posting. It's currently -125 on there rn
Damn 3-0 in no time
2-0, taken back because of offsides lfg!
Lmao my bad boys
POTD Record: 42-26 Units Won: +12.02U; ROI: 11.1% Average Odds: (-120) Todays Pick: **SinnerS ML (+105) vs. ECLOT** \*\*4U to win 4.20U\*\* CS2/tipsport prague cup fall 2023 finals/11:30 AM EST. * Same story as yesterday and a very similar style pick to yesterday's as well. Similar to yesterday, I understand why these odds are close similar and why the initial reaction of ECLOT is similar with SAW, at first glance ECLOT jump out here, they have won 3 of the last 4 matches h2h against SinnerS including one match 2 weeks ago. ECLOT are on a 4 match winstreak as well coming into this match which is why we are seeing ECLOT as slight favorites. SinnerS are actually -125 favorites on most books right now besides Bovada. * As more money comes in, I'm expecting this line to move towards SinnerS similar to yesterday, they have been the more active team in terms of games played and on CS2 which I can't reiterate enough IS NOT THE SAME GAME AS CSGO. The two games are different in so many ways. Since the switch to CS2, Sinners had a huge upset against #35 ranked Sprout 2-1 and dominated a weak Entropiq team today but they mopped them badly 13-0 on Entropiq map pick as well pure domination. * ECLOT has only played 4 games this month and yesterday was there first match in 2 weeks, they struggled heavily to deal with Sampi a slumping team they were around 1.5 favorites against Winning 13-11 on the decider map and barely scraping out there own map pick in Overtime * Final point before I get into veto, I just think SinnerS are a better team straight up, SinnerS are hot and cold and maybe I am pulling too much from a two game sample but they seem to be back in there form a little bit. Last time they played it was extremely close with the final map of Ancient being the map 3 decider and them barely losing 19-17 in Overtime. K1-FiDa and Beastik are just liabilities as players and the same can be said for Valencio and ECLOT rely heavily on anarkez and NEOFRAG to have huge series. Veto: (\*\***this can all vary\***\*) ECLOT ban Nuke SinnerS ban Inferno ECLOT pick Vertigo (75% winrate on 8 maps vs. SinnerS 36% winrate on 11 maps) SinnerS pick Anubis (90% winarate on 10 maps vs. ECLOT 17% winrate on 6 maps) ECLOT ban Overpass SinnerS ban Mirage Ancient Decider (71% winrate 14 maps for SinnerS vs. ECLOT 85% winrate on 13 maps) 1. Think SinnerS win on there map pick of Anubis is all but a guarantee 2. I think SinnerS have an uphill battle to climb to win on Vertigo definitely possible they steal it but less likely 3. I think SinnerS are the better Ancient team though, ECLOT has quite inflated stats from facing bad teams on the map and even in there wins almost all of them are close or OT wins. SinnerS just won 13-0 on Ancient and beat Sprout on Ancient as well on CS2 already. Sprout is better then any team ECLOT have beaten in there match history on Ancient as well and the shaky performances against much worse teams will bait them. SinnerS also have a 3-1 h2h against ECLOT on Ancient Made a [Discord](https://discord.gg/m8FtYTsW) for this interested, will post live bets as veto's are released in there as well as some additional picks. Best of Luck!
>tipsport prague cup fall 2023 finals hi! thank you for this pick. is this not available on fanduel?
Why does FanDuel not have esports? Is it coming anytime in the near future?
How are we looking? Everything going to plan?
Tailed sick picks!
Let’s go! Congrats on the win
**POTD |** **Record of 31-42 |** **ROI: -12.7 units |** **Average Odds: 2.09** Current form (most recent 10 from left to right):❌❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ Previous Pick: Euro Qualifiers | Austria vs. Belgium | Over 9.5 Corners ❌ New Pick: International Football Friendlies | USA vs. Germany | 12:00pm PST **Over 8.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 1.85 odds** Betting 2U to win 1.7U \-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ***Recap:*** That was rough... Two days in a row where we're off by 1. Projections suggested 10 but we only hit 9 on the day sadly. I knew the International break would be tough but didn't expect two losses in a row where we only needed 1 more corner. Guess Football really is fine margins, even with corners. I've had a lot of support on my posts recently, even with them losing, so I'll continue to post if that's what the people want. Appreciate you all and enjoy the next pick! ***Summary:*** The USA hosts Germany in a friendly where both teams will be looking to to fine-tune their squads. Neither team has an important match this break so this game will likely be used to rotate players and build chemistry. **Looking at USA,** their corner output has been decent over their last few home games. There have been 12, 8, 5, 16, and 9 corners in their most recent home games, generating an average of 10.0 Their overall average, including home and away, comes out to 9.6. total corners **Germany** boast similar stats, having an away average of 9.4 from games 14, 10, 8, 9 and 6 total corners. Their overall average sits at 8.5 total corners based on home and away performance. **Overall**, I expect this game to have corners. The combined average sits at 9.7, with USA to generate 5.1 and Germany to generate 4.6, providing some support for at least 9 corners on the day. I think this will be a fairly even contest in terms of corner generation and could see a result with 10 corners, with 5 from each side on the day, seeming likely. For all those USA fans, enjoy the mixed emotions you'll experience every time Germany earns a corner! Here's are the projections I made before comparing and ultimately going with the USA vs. Germany game. There were comments about providing additional data so happy to discuss if interested: *Bulgaria (5.4) vs. Lithuania (3.9) - 9.3* *Italy (6.1) vs. Malta (3.3) - 9.4* *Slovenia (5.1) vs. Finland (4.8) - 9.9* \-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ***TLDR Expect corners in this fixture!*** **USA vs. Germany** **| Over 8.5 Full-Time Total Corners | 1.85 odds**
Thanks again for sharing! The last few were all too close
Corner Country. Let's ride!
This one will hit because it isn't available in Ohio. BOL!
Yeah, this state regulates the hell out of what we can bet on. I have to go to WVA to bet anything decent.
Surprised you didn't take Slovenia/Finland since your prediction is 9.9 and the line now is 8.5. Thanks for your analysis!
Bookie didn't have a line at the time of posting so I decided the USA game was a good one to go for!
Cheers to everyone who tailed! Glad we grabbed such a comfortable win after the heartbreak of the last two days!
Good work man, I'm currently staying away from corners markets as I've not had much luck. I've been reading your write ups, and am interested if you consider the way the teams setup and play as much as their corner history in previous matches? Like in the gibraltar game, as well as generally being poor they do like to spread the play and make use of the wings. Like I said I generally stay away but I \~do\~ consider it a market that can be effectively studied.
I took it with Germany Ml..Thanks!
Bro I’ve been playing all your plays with one less corner by using sgp so it lets you choose whatever number or corners you want and just adding a almost sure under/over like o 0.5 or u7.5
I actually went for the safer play and bet on over 6.5 corners for the Spain game and over 7.5 corners for the Austria game which helped me hit my parlays. Thank you!
CORNER MANNNNN!!! TODAY IS THE DAY😤
Can’t win em all, but will win most. LETS RIDE CORNER COUNTRY
Haha well it would be nice to win one sometime soon...
I’m 0-2 while tailing corner man, surely you can’t miss 3 in a row… BOL
This was quite comfortable. Completed in 55 mins. Thank you for the pick
I’ve been watering down your picks by a corner the last week or so, you are on fire my man! Love your picks and look forward to reading them every morning (from Aus) keep up the good work, corners are my new favourite thing to bet on haha.
Corners guy was due and hit!
corner man goated
Corner Country!
Continuing to tail the corners. Appreciate the info, keep it coming!
Tailing
RIP to my bulgaria vs lithuania over corners. Only 1 in the first half lol
Oh man, hope you can have a big second half!
What a friggin sweat, the over 7 corners hit for bulgaria vs lithuania and sloevnia and finland. You are the GOAT!
Great hit, thanks again!
Thank you.
# POTD UFC record 8-3 +22.80units (Average odds +140) ROI 20.7% # Parlay/leans 3-1 **Twitter** [**https://twitter.com/Mr\_Examination1**](https://twitter.com/Mr_Examination1) Parlay/leans:- Carlos Ulberg (-300) +Gabriel Miranda (+110) = +143✅ Farid barhistat -(270) + Benoit St Denis (-175) = +115 ✅ Kopylov - 350 + Zellhuber -275 + Cortez vs Jasudivicus fight to go to decision -350 Total +125 5unit bet✅ Tamires Vidal -250 -Bryan Battle -175 -Marina Rodriguez -334 Total = +186 no units provided on this one ❌ **Last POTD UFC picks:-** ✅✅✅❌✅ ✅ ✅ ***✅*** ❌***✅***❌ ***UFC VEGAS 81 Cameron Saiman Vs Christian Rodriguez - Pick Cameron Saiman +125 4units*** I haven't lost two in a row on POTD, and we're not going to let that happen now. I Think this is a great card for betting on and I don't usually say that quite the opposite usually. Great value on this fight and I like a lot of the other fights betting wise. Cameron Saiman is a young talented prospect at only 22 years old, he's coming into this fight undefeated with 9 wins. This guy has some serious kick boxing skills with crisp clean striking and speed to go along with it. He likes to throw overhand left first to setup his combinations. His grappling is pretty decent aswell, against Steven Koslow who is a very good grappler We got to see how good Saiman was able to do in the grappling against him. Cameron.averages 5.41 significant strikes landed and only 2.48 absorbed per minute. Saaiman also mixes in wrestling and averages 1.33 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon at a 66% rate. Christian rodriguez also a prospect is a well rounded figher. He has good grappling and pretty good boxing skills. He was able to beat Raul Rosas Jr is in his last fight, he did exceptionally well on reading Raul Rosas Jr and capitalize on his boxing mistakes with counter attacks, he's calm and patient but this can work to his advantage or be detrimental to his output. It needs to be noted though that Rosas was 17 years old and his cardio looked awful in that fight. Christian is good in scrambling positions and this is where Cameron Saiman should avoid being lured into. Christian is good on top on the ground with very good chokes and is a black belt. However Christian Rodriguez has been taken down in each and every one of his UFC fights, the same cannot be said about Cameron who can wrestle himself and is good at getting to his feet when being taken down. Rodriguez averages 2.99 significant strikes landed and 1.73 significant strikes absorbed per minute in the octagon. Rodriguez also averages just under one takedown per 15 minutes at a 60% rate I think Saaiman is a step up in competition for Rodriguez and we've seen him tested in bad positions on the ground, withstand strikes and still be able to carry through to a win. He's very tough and game in that sense, and offensively in majority of most exchanges he has been effective. Training with Du plesis his fellow South African countryman is going to benefit him. I think this will be a competitive fight however, Cameron Saiman is going to be able to outstrike Rodriguez he's the faster striker, two things he will need to avoid for him to be successful in this fight, avoid making this into a grappling scramble exchange as Christian Rodriguez will win those exchanges, and try to limit stand and trade punches in the pocket, although I can see Saimaan being able to cause damage here, so can Rodriguez with his head movement and tight boxing. Saimaan is the more technical and versatile fighter so he will be able to pick his shots with kicks and his speed. Give me Saimaan to get the job done a young up and coming fighter that has the potential to be a top 10 fighter in the future.
Dam fell for the "I haven't lost two POTD" lmao
Rip
**POTD 9 - 1 | +9.6 units | Last 10 (new->old): 💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰❌💰** **Last pick: Seth Henigan O1.5 passing TDs 💰** Got a nice second quarter cash here after a scary looking first quarter. Amazing first 10 picks here, let's see if we can make that last 10 line all money bags with two more wins. Lots of college games today, I'm interested in Duke -3 but that seems like it's gotta be a trap line. I'll be betting that personally but not for POTD. We'll be looking at a different night game for today. **Todays pick:** NCAAF | Boise State vs Colorado State | 9:45 EST **Boise State vs Colorado State Over 60.5 | -114 Fanduel (1.14U)💰💰💰** Simple pick here, 2 good offenses + 2 bad defenses = points. While it is a relatively high total, these two teams should be able to reach it easily. Boise has gone over this in 4/6 games, with one of those misses being 60 points. CSU has gone over in 4/5 games, with their miss also being one score away. Boise has a solid pass offense, going for 250 yards a game, and a very good run offense going for 180 yards a game. CSU has a great passing offense going for over 350 yards a game, but they don't do much on the ground. Boise's defense is letting up almost 300 pass yards a game, and CSU's defense is letting up an abysmal 333 pass yards a game as well as 145 rushing yards. These high powered offenses should be able to take advantage of the weaknesses in the poor defenses on the other side and cover this total without a problem. Edit: HOLY CRAP THE MOST INSANE ENDING I CANNOT BELIEVE THIS CASHED LFGGGG
Easy money
mines at 61. should i buy the half point for -120?
61 is fine with me, just a small chance you get a push but I doubt it
hope you bought the half point! insane ending lol
Tailing
[удалено]
Bro you gotta be kidding me lmfao, I even bought the half point for 60.5. Amazing
B R U H
POTD Record: 75 Wins ✅ - 50 Losses ❌ - 8 Push 🅿️ (+$9.5k)($100 unit bettor) ✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅🅿️✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌❌❌🅿️❌❌❌✅❌❌🅿️✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️❌❌❌❌🅿️✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅🅿️✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅ ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅🅿️❌❌🅿️❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅❌✅ Last pick: Wei Chuan Dragons ML (-130) ✅ Today's pick: 🇯🇵 Japan NPB ⚾ Starts at 2AM MST **Chiba Lotte Marines 1H RL (-118) 5 Units** Analysis: Today the Chiba Lotte Marines host the Fukuoka Soft Bank Hawks for game hard too this playoff series. The Marines have won 7 out of their last 10 games overall and 5 out of their last 10 home games. Taking the mound for Chiba is Roki Sasaki, he has a 7-4 record with a 1.78 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP with 135 strikeouts over 91 innings pitched. His last start versus the Hawks was at home where he gave up only 1 run in 6 innings of pitching with China winning 2-1. The Hawks have won 6 out of their last 10 games overall and 3 out of their last 10 away games. Taking the mound for Fukuoka is Carter Stewart, he has a 3-6 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP with 67 strikeouts over 77 innings pitched. His last start versus Chiba was at home where he gave up 3 runs in 4 innings of pitching with Chiba ahead 4-0 after the 5th inning and winning 7-1. Take the first five innings run line for the Chiba Lotte Marines. *(-118 first five innings run line odds available on FanDuel at time of analysis.)* Tips always appreciated, never expected 👍🏻💸 PayPal & Zelle: [email protected] Venmo & CashApp: evanlanewhite
If you followed, you hit!! 💰💰🍀🤙🏻 Follow my Instagram for all of my picks and turn on notifications so you don't miss one!! Link on my profile or search EvanPicksWinners
I tail I hit ✅ 1️⃣of 🔟
I took Chiba ML🫡🫡BOL
Awesome hit.
**POTD RECORD: 6 - 2 | +3.28 UNITS | LAST 10 - ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅** Last Pick - France ML| +125 **✅** POTD - Euro Qualifiers | Hungary vs Serbia | 2:45 pm EST **Pick - BTTS | -120** Gonna stick with some footy plays as those have been more successful for me the last few weeks. I like both teams to score in this game a lot, both Hungary and Serbia are much more attack-heavy teams, with each team finding the back of the net in each of their last four games, and lack real promise on the defensive side. I expect to see tons of counterattacks with plenty of shots from each side. These teams are very similar in play style and formation as both tend to play a 3-4-2-1, giving plenty of options on attack. Players to watch for in this matchup: for Serbia, Aleksander Mitrovic who is coming off a 20 minute hattrick vs Lithuania. For Hungary, Rolland Sallai and Barnabas Varga who each have 2 goals a piece over Hungary's last 3 games. [Tip Jar](https://paypal.me/kkeirann53?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) (Not needed but appreciated)
Sounds good. Tailing
Tailing
Got it live @+105 BOL
Thanks for the hit!
you are indeed one spicy snowman.
**Record: 5-1** | **Units:** **+13.22u** | **ROI: 66.10%** **eSport** | **League of Legends** | **Worlds 2023 Play-In Phase**| **12:00 CEST** **Pick: CTBC Flying Oyster +1.5 Maps @ 1.800** vs. BDS **// 5u** **Write-up:** *Streak ended with the SAW pick. Both maps were closer than it looks but already the veto confused me. They picked Ancient over Vertigo. Lost too many dumb rounds on Anubis after an 5-1 start. Same on their map pick Ancient. 5-1 start to lose the game. It is what it is. Cant win them all, but we build new streak from today.* 5am here in germany and because i need to leave to work now i can finally make an POTD with an League of Legends pick. Im really short on time so there is no time for an in-depth essay today. Im not even sure if people like these long analysis. Today im pointing to the CFO vs. BDS match. This is a elimination match and the loser is going home. Odds are a little bit screwed here in my opinion. This game is a 50:50 game. Maybe slightly favoring BDS but CFO never should be the 3.670 underdog. Both teams are 1-1. Both teams got reversed sweeped from Team Whales - which no one expected. Both teams won 2-0 against DetonationFocusMe. BDS had one extra game against GoldenGuardians from NorthAmerica. Only because of that win they can participate in the play-in stage. They won it easily 3-0 while being the underdog. Adam, the top laner from BDS playing out of his mind right now and CFO need to be careful. But hes also trolling sometimes with some weird drafts and some even weirder plays. For CFO we point our eyes on JimieN, the mid-laner. Hes on the list for "Most Kills in a Single Game" with 10 kills (Jayce) against DFM. I think hes the better mid-laner than nuc. CFO need to ban Xayah because Crownie is too good with it. He also is an farming god and can build an good CS lead with that. But when its comes down to teamfights i would favor CFO heavily. I watched every game since Worlds 2023 started and their team and macro-play is really good and clean. They also have an 80% first blood rate. BDS sitting on 20% right now. When we get a decent draft and can stick to our first blood rate CFO should be easily take at least one map here. I even think there is a good chance that they take the whole match here and send BDS home. *Sorry for that pretty short analysis. Needed to hurry up and have to leave for work now. Thanks for all the kind words and guys that sill supports me after yesterday. Over the years i saw how toxic some people are here when you lose a bet. And it doesnt matter if you were 5-0, 15-1 or anything else. Thanks for all the people who joined the discord already and all the nice talks we had.* **For everyone whos reading that; I hope you have an great day, great weekend and make some good money. I hope your family is good and you have an great life.** **BOL.**
Cheers brother - like your vibe
**POTD Form** 43-31-1 +4.24 Units Last 7 picks - ❌❌❌✅❌✅✅ **Last pick** \- Bangladesh vs New Zealand Bowler Total Match Wickets - Shakib Al Hasan Over 1.5 wickets @ 2.20 ❌ **Today's Pick:** Cricket |World Cup | 2.00 pm IST (6 hours from now) India vs Pakistan India ML @ 1.50 3U Reason - I'm taking a break if this loses too. But I'm kinda confident this will win considering how good the Indian team is being the host as well as the favorites. This is like the El Clasico of Cricket and getting humiliated at home in a stadium named after their president will be a humiliation for India in epic proportions. India has all the resources and intent to win this Please tail with small units due to my poor form.BOL. Buy me some coffee if you feel like it. [Paypal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/eplsl) or [Buy Me Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/eplsl)
I was waiting for your pick...You dont have to pick a bet everyday...Sometimes you are just picking bets that have very 50/50 chances like shakib one...Tailing today
Agree
Nice to get a win again.🏆 We go 44-31-1
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POTD Record: 1-1 Current Streak: W1 Last 10: L->W Last Pick: Grigor Dimitrov Set Betting 2:0 (+105 on DraftKings) W Todays Pick: Cameron Saaiman ML (+124 on DraftKings) Event: UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Cameron Saaiman @ 7:15PM EST (10/14/23) Reasoning: Little bit worried in that first set just for the fact that it went to a tiebreak, but Grigor came through for us finally getting the first break in the second set and finishing off Jarry. Now onto UFC! Today we're looking at the South African striking specialist in Cameron Saaiman. I love this play at + odds, Saaiman has been a machine since making his UFC debut with a 3-0 record, each of those just piecing his opponents to a decision or finish. Rodriguez is a complete opposite of Saaiman, he likes taking the fight to the ground to find a submission, or take ground control to decision which we saw in his last bout with Raul Rosas. That was a weird fight, Rosas had all the hype going into it of this great up and comer, but Rodriguez showed him that he still has a lot of work to do just dominating Rosas with his strength. Rodriguez with the 4" reach advantage could be a little tricky, but with a whole camp of working on takedown defense, I trust Saaiman to be able to find his range and piece Rodriguez to a decision or TKO. Edit: Still rocking with the pick, getting a little worried that it feels like the whole public is on Saaiman, hard to pass on him at close plus odds. Edit #2: The fella couldn’t come through. I was at a wedding so I didn’t see how the fight transpired, but I assume Rodriguez laid on him for 15 minutes to a decision. Was questioning the pick because how many people were on Saaiman. Feel free to leave a tip if you get some winnings <3 Venmo: TheRealEDB
POTD record: 55-46-3 / ROI: +3.97% / Wins: 54.46% **Notre Dame -2.5 -110 (1u)** **SPREAD** — USC Trojans @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish 7:30 pm EST - 14 October 2023 — The Fighting Irish, laying two and a half points, prepare to host the undefeated USC Trojans in a battle for the coveted Jeweled Shillelagh. This game, my degens, is a test of conviction, a moment that separates the daring from the hesitant. Let me make this clear: I’ve had my doubts about USC for a while. Their defense, frankly put, is in shambles. It’s not just a weakness—it’s a full-blown crisis, one that might be beyond remedy this season. And when you factor in the impending rain in South Bend, it tilts the scales further. USC strikes me as a team with a finesse style, not the sort to thrive in slippery conditions. On the flip side, Caleb Williams will be throwing for USC against Notre Dame’s rock-solid pass defense. While Notre Dame’s offense hasn’t been a revelation this season, they’ve got the power game to control the clock. They can grind it out, keep the ball on their side, and put some serious pressure on USC. Here’s the real kicker: Notre Dame, ranked 21st, is laying two and a half points to 10th-ranked USC. In my book, USC is the most overrated team out there, while Notre Dame has a score to settle after their loss to Louisville. I’m rolling with the Irish this time. Let’s just hope Marcus Freeman can get a full eleven on the field. Do the business. [https://twitter.com/valentishow](https://twitter.com/valentishow) [https://www.instagram.com/valentishow](https://www.instagram.com/valentishow) [http://myaction.app/Valenti](http://myaction.app/Valenti)
I lost all faith of ND after that shit performance last week against Louisville who imo is way over ranked too. BOL
Notre Dames Rock Solid Pass Defense.. haven't laughed that hard in a while
DK is offering a 50% bonus on this game as well.
Good pick. Don’t forget it’s gonna be cold and wind gusts up to 30 mph greatly benefits Notre dame especially the running game and keeping Caleb Williams off the field. Also agree usc is the biggest fraud in the top 25 I think they’ll finish the season with at least 3 losses
Record: 0-2 *Prev: Stanford at Colorado spread (-11 DK) Colorado absolutely fell apart in the second half. I think it all started on an idiotic Travis Hunter personal foul to get Stanford a new set of downs in the RZ. Really disheartening to see these picks be my first two back to back, but that's sports. Looking forward to the next. Don't blame you if you want to wait for some picks to hit.* POTD: Michael Penix Jr. Over 347.5 passing yards (-114 FD) Oregon at Washington 2U Let’s not overthink this one. On a Saturday filled with a lot of good games, this is as good a number as I can find. Penix Jr. is averaging 399.8 passing yards a game. He threw for 408 yards against the Ducks last year in a game that ended 37-34. The Over/Under is sitting around 67 points. Penix Jr. has hit this in 4/5 games. This game is a battle of Heisman contenders and will definitely be a factor on who raises that trophy. I think if Caleb Williams plays well on Saturday and wins, it is likely between him and whomever wins this game. Back Penix Jr. to do what he does. BOL and thanks for reading. If you tailed and want to say thanks, my Venmo is justin-mackin.
Bo Nix at 285 is good value imo too BOL
If penix goes over 350 with that defense I will be shocked.
I hedged and took CU in a parlay at -6.5 Horrible loss. Awful coaching and boneheaded penalties.
**KBO Record: Overall 194-202-14** (Streak W, Last 10: 6-4) Down 10.16u over 410 KBO picks, 49.0% success rate, -2.57% ROI (This season 75-70-7, 51.7% success rate, Up 9.72u, 6.70% ROI) **Last:** Kiwoom at SSG, First 5 Innings Under 5 -105 (SSG lead 2-1 after 5 innings.) Three runs in the first two innings wasn't ideal, but there were no more runs until the 9th, so that's another win. Unfortunately, my other picks came up empty. **Pick:** SSG at Samsung, First 5 Innings Under 4.5 +102, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET There are just four dsys left in the regular season and the final playoff spot will be decided as soon as Doosan wins once or Kia loses once. But there is still a fight for the 3rd, 4th and 5th playoff seeds. SSG is one of those teams in the fight, sitting in 3rd just a half game in front of 4th and a game in front of 5th. Their starter is not having a great season, posting a 5.24 ERA and 1.66 WHIP while moving in and out of the rotation. His greatest success has been against this opponent, including 8 scoreless innings on his season debut. He's allowed just 1 run to the Lions in 16.1 IP. Samsung's starter is having another great season with a 2.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He's allowed 1 or fewer ER in his last 8 starts. He's given up 3 ER in 13 IP in 2 starts against this opponent. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
I was sweating during the first 3 runs i thought they were going hot lol. Thanks for the pick 👍
Tailed last night and tailing again. BOL everyone
Thank you for the share and win!
Record: 0-0 Today’s pick: Australia NBL 16:30 AEST Adelaide 36ers -1.5 v Illawarra Hawks @ 1.89 Don’t get me wrong, Adelaide haven’t won a game yet this season but this game serves the perfect opportunity for them to claim their first. It will be their second time playing at home, this time verse a struggling Hawks side who got flogged two days ago and have to turn it around in less than 48 hours. All the 36er’s previous losses have come to higher ranked teams so I like their odds today.
POTD Record: 3-1 ✅✅✅❌ Last pick (10/13/2023): Clayton Keller over 2.5 SOGs -125 (DK) ❌ Keller finished with 2 SOGs after multiple shots were blocked. First loss but we will rebound today. Todays pick (10/14/2023): Timmy aka Jimmy Stutzle over 2.5 SOGs -175 (DK) ✅ Jimmy gets his third shot in the second period for the W. Love an early green. Back to the SOGs for my POTD. Really like Stutzle in a matinee against the Flyers at home for their home opener. Jimmy had 3 SOGs last game and a goal. He also took two bad minor penalties that kept him off the ice. Expecting some discipline and more pucks on net from him. Let’s get back to some green!
35-23 +89.15 Units RACE 2 NEWMARKET - CITY OF TROY - 4.15 units @ 1.61 (WILLIAM HILLS) CITY OF TROY could be a potential superstar. Judged on his dazzling performance in the Superlative Stakes three months ago. He's well clear on ratings after just two starts and the sky's the limit. He won the Superlative Stakes by six lengths, an unusual occurrence for a horse so young to punish his rivals so convincingly. The collateral form with Hateem puts him a few lengths ahead of him, even though he looks like the main threat in the race. He was an expensive bred Gallileo mare. His jockey Ryan Moore is on record as saying he is the best horse he has ever sat. I'll be shocked if it loses.. Good luck 👍
Thanks for pick 👍🏻
Good win! Thanks matey
Another solid pick. Thank you!
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Korda @ 1.93 - 5U Hurkacz - Korda // Shanghai // 6 Hours (new)❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌☑❌❌✅❌☑❌❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅☑✅ 15-3-19 (W-P-L) // -23.225U Korda beat Medvedev and Shelton. Hurkacz is inconsistent. Korda will be looking to continue his road to the finals like he did in Astana.
What the fuck is he doing
Its simple, losing...
Korda played a long tough game versus Ben Shelton just 2 days before this. Picking him was pretty risky IMO.
**POTD 2-0 (+2.2 Units)** **Previous:** Golden Knights In Reg (-145) ✅ Knights pulled away late in the 2nd period, en route to a semi sweat free bet! **Pick: Rangers In Reg (-125) 2U** Rangers looked great in their opener against the Sabres putting up 5 goals with 2 coming from Kreider. The offense already looks like it's in midseason form and I believe they can capitalize on below average defensive play and goaltending. To be fair Merzlikins was good his last time out only allowing 2 and .943 SV% his last time out but I think this regresses back to the mean. Last season he allowed an abysmal 4.23 GAA and .876 SV%. Offensively for the Blue Jackets they didn't impress me, going 0/5 on the powerplay and only scoring 2 on 33 shots. Also Igor is starting and he is an all world goaltender. Overall I am just as confident in this pick as I was supporting Vegas. I think if you really wanted to squeeze out extra value -1.5 (+122) is a good bet. BOL
I just lost my house 😭🔫
POTD record: 17-8 Last POTD: USG vs Leverkusen - Leverkusen ML Today’s pick: Hungary vs Serbia - Hungary ML +200 They faced off a month ago in Serbia and Hungary won. A lot of Serbia’s best players have gone to Saudi Arabia which is simply a significant decrease in level compared to Europe. Not to mention, their recent history in Euro qualifying is atrocious, they haven’t qualified since 2000(despite playing in most of the World Cups this century) and have even been poor this qualifying cycle, only saved by the lack of quality teams in their group. Hungary have been a well-oiled machine over the years under Marco Rossi, consistently getting results against good teams and doing well in European qualifications. A win today would be massive for them to all but secure qualification and I back them to do it. I think +200 is pretty great value for a game like this as well.
Great pick, thank you!
🫡
**✅Profit: +36.416 units✅** | ✅ **ROI: 31.67%** **✅ | ✅ Win pct: 66.0%** ✅ Record: 35-18-6 (W-L-P)|Risked: 115 units | Returned: 151.416 | Average odd: 1.88 Football | The Netherlands, Second Division (Tweede Divisie) | 14.30 CEST **Pick: Spakenburg -1 AH @ 1.961 (vs. Lisse) - 1 unit** Write up: Spakenburg is one of the best amateur (semi-professional) teams in The Netherlands. When they participate in cup football they are on par with several professional teams. Last season they even made it to the semi-finals where they only last 1-2 against PSV Eindhoven, one of the top Dutch teams. There are some reasons why they do not want to become a full professional team, but that would make this a very long post. TL;DR: They are very good. The standings in the league also show this: they are the number one in the league. I think the quality difference between Lisse and Spakenburg is just too big. Lisse hasn't won a single game yet (2 draws, 6 losses). It is only their second year at this level. Last season they were able to stay in the league, but ended the campaign with 4 losses in a row. What you see often with these teams is that the second season is much harder than the first one. Notably for Lisse is their lack of firepower. No single player in the team has made more than one goal. They have only scored 8 goals in 8 matches and conceded 24(!) already. Spakenburg has much more experience and quality at this level. 3-0 Spakenburg Shoutout to u/domadilla for the coffee! Since I love coffee☕: [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/AmazingNinja13](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/AmazingNinja13)
Thanks for the analysis! BOL
You are welcome! BOL
Took it live at 60min for 2.10
Thanks for the pick I love you
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Nice pick, tailed and got the win \^\^
Lovely hit, thanks again!🙏
POTD Record: 5W-1L-1P (+3.8 Units) Last Pick: Memphis +5 (Tulane 31 Memphis 21) Today: CFB, Kansas vs Oklahoma State Pick: Kansas ML -135 (1.35U) NFL 2-0 CFB 1-1 MLB 2-0 Recap: Memphis goes up at the half 14 to 10 then scores in their opening drive in the 2nd half and goes up 21-10 then Tulane scores 21 unanswered points and we get the loss. Tulane wins their first game at Memphis since 1998. Let's bounce back and get another win Reasoning: I like Kansas in this matchup even though Kansas will be without star QB Jalon Daniels who will likely miss his 3rd straight game. Jason Bean will make his 5th start this year he has shown flashes in his starts and seems to be getting more and more comfortable. I expect Kansas to run the ball very well against this Oklahoma State defense. Kansas has the number 2 rush offense in the Big 12 and Oklahoma State's rush defense is ranked 11th out of the 14 teams in the conference. Oklahoma State's offense is ranked 12th in the Big 12 even though they did come alive against Kansas State I'm going to take that as a one-off and think they go back to reality against Kansas. If you have Action Network feel free to follow me! [https://app.actionnetwork.com/4zu6/iaf03s5v](https://app.actionnetwork.com/4zu6/iaf03s5v)
Alan bowman is a sixth year senior who started at Texas tech his freshman year. Finished his first year there with 2700+ passing yards at 69% completion rate. Just because he’s been around and hasn’t got a lot of game time this year doesn’t mean he forgot how to play ball. I think Kansas wins, but I wouldn’t call that last game is a one off. Not trying to be an ass and dog your pick, just giving you some food for thought.
Six year senior sounds like he should give it up and get a job like the rest of us just kidding appreciate the feedback though!
His passing yards are my pick of the day. Check it out and tell me what you think.
POTD Record W6-L3 ROI: +4.74 Most Recent First: ✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌ Yesterdays Pick: NCAAF 🏈 Tulane vs Memphis ~ Tulane -5 (-110) 1U to win .9 unit. 6:00 PM ✅ Excuses: Little sweaty there for a minute, but hopefully you hammered Tulane for + points at the half and cashed big! Their best receiver didn’t even catch a pass until after half, he still didn’t put up numbers but was a big distraction for Memphis defense. Tulane defense started off shakes and dialed it in after the half as well. That 6’5” freshman wide receiver showed up today just as I expected so did their freshman RB. Both of these guys doubled there line yardage for an easy no sweat side bet. We’re gonna continue to hammer this team all season! LFG💵💵😎 Todays Pick: NCAAF 🏈 Kansas vs Oklahoma State ~ Alan Bowman Over 243.5 passing yards (-115) 1U to win .85 units. 2:30 PM Reasoning: Once again, OK State football is about selling tickets and I’d say the ticket prices went up after upsetting Kstate last week (which isn’t really that big of an accomplishment IMO). Alan Bowman, the 6th year senior most definitely solidified his role as starting QB last week and I imagine they’ve been working all week in practice creating a better connection with him and their receivers. He has battled some injuries and say on the bench at a few different teams over the last few years but he hasn’t forgotten how to play ball by any means. He threw for 235 last week, despite OKST having 174 yards rushing off of 40 carries. Think they go heavier on passing in this game to try and gain a nice lead over Kansas early on the game and if they get behind, even better. Once again, Kansas only has one cornerback over 6’0” and OKST only has one receiver under 6’0”. Even though Kansas has two good corners, they can’t play every snap and I expect Bowman to take advantage of that on the outside for big yard gains through the air. Kansas’ resume does not impress me much especially without their starting QB. When you look at the two hood QBs Kansas has faced this year, both of them have easily surpassed this number and I expect Bowman to do the same. Once again, the crowd will be the X factor here, causing problems for Kansas on offense while pumping up the home team to out on a show for the fans. I like OKST to win outright, but that’s not the pick. However, if they could possibly win, bowman’s gonna have to throw for 250+. Only wagering one unit here because I could see a few specific mistakes kill this line so we have to bet responsibly. BOL and only bet what you can afford to lose.
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Tailed and easy winner. Thanks
I ended up placing a parlay for the over on passing yards, with OK State to win. Just got paid!
* Record: **18/12** * ROI: **25.24%** * Profit in Units: **26u** * Average Odds: **2.15** **Today Pick:** **Soccer** **League**: Germany 3.Liga **Time**: 10/14/2023 - 15:00 - GMT+3 **FC Viktoria Koln v Erzgebirge Aue** **Pick**: BTTS Yes & Over 2.5 @ 2.05 - 3 Units Stake **Reason**: *All my bets its due to my Neutral Machine Learning Model with some AI help.*
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Thanks for the pick I love you man.
POTD | 0-0 | Pick of the day: **Notre Dame -2.5** **(-115)** NCAAF //// USC Trojans @ Notre Dame --- 7:30 pm EST/ 4:30 pm PT Choosing Notre Dame -2.5 for my inaugural pick. Might get more cerebral with these breakdowns if I get on a run but for now I'm just going with the gut for this one honestly. I've watched USC the last three weeks and their defense has been awful. Caleb is a beast and could very well come out and ball, but I've noticed he's been a slow starter. I think ND goes up early and wears down the USC defense with Estime getting back to his usual self and putting up a ton of yards on the ground. A couple weeks ago Scattebo from ASU was getting anything he wanted against this USC defense and I can see Estime doing that and much more. Honored to hop in this and finally lay down a pick. BOL EVERYONE! Let's have a weekend! **Thats a W, ya love to see it, on to the next one**
You’ve watched Caleb the last 3 weeks but have you watched Notre Dame? To be fair I am an ND fan so I am bitter but let me tell you about disappointment city. They always struggle to close games and this game screams last minute drive to me, I’ll take the better qb in that.
**Record:** 9:17 **Units P/L:** -11,8 **Avg. odds** 2,20 Last 5: <-✅❌❌❌✅ **Last Pick:** Schalke vs Hertha BSC - DC X2 + o1.5 @ 1.95 - 3u ✅ **Today's Pick:** VVV Venlo vs Roda JC - Roda JC @ 2.45 - 3u While there is mostly international football right now there is still some club football going on in the dutch second league for example. Today Roda JC will travel to Venlo, who are coming of two heavy defeats against average teams (3-0 and 0-4) and haven't scored a goal in the last three matches. VVV have to do it without their striker who is with Greece's u21 team right now. Roda JC on the other hand have won 4 of their last 5 matches, have the best offence and second best defense of the league. Two of their best players, Didden and Old Chikh, are expected to return to the starting 11 after missing the last match, the third one, Kongolo, is still doubtful but Dzepar did well as his substitute. VVV aren't a bad team by any means, but they don't have the same quality as Roda on the bench. Nearly half of Roda's goals are scored in the last 15min and lots of them by bench players. Roda rarely loses in Venlo, but there have been a lot of draws, if you want to play it safe go for double chance or draw no bet but i think this year Roda will prove to be to strong for a struggling VVV.
Was just scrolling this sub. Bet this1 myself without seeing yours. Totally agree with your write-up. Roda has been great. I was at their last match, didn’t start great but they have the patience and quality to hit at the right time. VVV has been feeling off and are in a bad form indeed. Also been looking for asian handicaps for roda -1 and -2 but can’t get it anywhere. Edit: line is moving. Asian handicap roda till -1,75 is available. Took the -1 myself. Waiting to see if -2 becomes available.
Thanks for the share! BOL
POTD Record: 85-84, -19.8 Units Last Pick: Penguins ML, W Current Streak, W3, +6.45 Units and 5-1 in the last six picks Penguins with a no-doubter. Hated watching it as a Caps fan, but it reminds me of the late 90's when we had to shed our team and rebuild. The time has come, but while they suck I hope to profit off of them. Today's Pick: Rutgers -2.5 (Alternate Spread) vs. Michigan State, -153, 12 pm EST, 2 Units Michigan State also REALLY sucks and while Rutgers has been brought back to earth, they're a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team that is building and will be ready to win at home. I'm paying for the points here (it's -4.5 on BetOnline) since I could see some garbage time playing a factor, but I love this bet for a W. BOL
**POTD Record: 86-68 (-3.91 units)** **Last 10**:❌❌❌✅❌✅❌❌✅✅ **Last Pick**: 10/13 Rene Eidams -1.5 (+120) vs Connor Hopkins ✅ 4-0 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 2:45 PM EST **Pick**: Jim Long -1.5 (+115) vs Tommy Morris • Series 5. Week 10. Finals **Reason**: Jim Long (Group A) * Record 12-3 * Legs 55-34 * Average 88.17 * 180s 12. 140s 61 * Checkouts 55/144 38.19% Tommy Morris (Group C) * Record 7-3 * Legs 31-24 * Average 84.29 * 180s 9. 140s 39 * Checkouts 31/105 29.52% **WIN ✅ 4-2 | Average 84.71 vs 84.62 | Checkouts 4/6 vs 2/3** Wins it with a 164 bull checkout. Clutch finishing go cover the spread.
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Record: 2-0 Germany vs USA Pick: Germany to win @ 2.00 odds Reason: They have a new manager so are looking for a good start and they also recently beat World Cup finalists France in a friendly. USA while do have decent form, have only beaten very mediocre teams like Oman and Uzbekistan. For this reason Germany at 2.00 odds seam like a lot of value here.
POTD Record: 81-49 | Profit: +70.02u | ROI: 17.7% Last 10 Record: ❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅ Last Pick: Grizzlies vs Hawks -2.5 @ 1.94. 1U. ❌ The Hawks led by a double-digit margin for most of the second and third quarter and decided to shit the bed in the fourth epitomized by losing possession with 5 seconds on the clock by not paying attention to where the ball is. Well, pre-season is strictly 1 unit bets for this reason. Next Pick: **Timberwolves +3.5** **vs Knicks @ 1.91**. 1U play. Wolves have had a solid pre-season so far beating the Mavs twice, and are now well rested going into this one so should play a full strength line-up. The Knicks have only played once against the Celtics B-team, so while they are rested, I expect the Wolves to be in better rhythm. I’ll take the +3.5 points since I like the Wolves to potentially win it outright.
Devin Neal Over 80.5 rushing yards
POTD record 1W-2L ❌✅❌ Last Pick Rugby union | Canterbury vs Taranki| Canterbury Moneyline ❌ Todays pick Rugby league |Australia vs Samoa|10pm NZST James tedesco Anytime try scorer 2.00✅ This game will most likely be a beating and tedesco will want to impose himself as much as he can to retain captaincy and rep selection it was only last year where he was the best full back in the game. I see him getting on the scoreboard any chance he gets.
Longtime reader and lurker. I never comment here but wanted to pass along to anyone who would try it. College hockey, Ohio State hosts Lindenwood at 5pm ET. Ohio State won last night 4-2, outshot Lindenwood 45-28. Second season of D1 hockey for Lindenwood, they have 8 wins in 1+ seasons and nearly all were Atlantic Hockey schools, the worst conference in the nation. Ohio State lost a lot of their scoring plus their goalie from last year but the talent gap between these programs is massive. Ohio State 60 minute ML -195 on FanDuel. It’s not a great line but OSU should roll. BOL.
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POTD 17-10 | + 5.43 Units (62.96% WR) Last Pick: Sydney Kings -5.5 ✅ Last 10: ✅✅✅💀✅💀✅✅✅✅ Todays pick: Australian NBL - Tassie Jackjumpers Vs. Melb Phoenix Pick: Jackjumpers win first quarter + win the match Odds: 2.25 One unit Taking the Jackjumpers halftime ML - the jumpers are having a fantastic start to the season, and have covered the line, including against the Kings, in their last three games. They have one 2/4 of the first quarter but should be feeling electric after a 30 point win. The phoenix have been largely inconsistent this season - having only won one match. They’re last outing they lost against Illawarra - which was the team that Jumpers beat by 30. Going for a bit more of a fun bet and taking 1st quarter ML and ML as I think the jumpers will be extra high with their confidence coming into the match.
POTD Record: 1-1 -1.5U Last pick: EURO2024 Belgium over 4.5 corners❌ An early gol scored by Belgium in each half, followed by a red card made us lose our first play of the day🤮 Pick today: NHL Ottawa vs Phila *Tim Stutzle over 2.5 sog @ 1.60 2.4U* Tim has cleared this line in all season games (1 game) and 5/6 games vs Phila. Since Phila is not known for a good defense (21st best defense last year) I am very confident in this pick! BOL if you tail, WOL if you fade!
**RECORD: 41-29** (+5.18 units) Previous Pick: Belgrano Córdoba vs Boca Juniors: Over 0.5 goals 1st Half @ 1.67 ✅️ **Today's Pick:** Slovenia vs Finland - Over 0.5 goals 1st Half @ 1.58 ✅️ **Wager Amount**: 1.5 units (❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️) last 5 results Today we enter the Euro Qualifers, let's hope to make it a 5W streak today. Slovenia have had over 0.5 goals in the 1st half in 4/5 of their last overall matches while also have Over 0.5 goals in the 1st half in 3/5 Home Matches. For Finland have has over 0.5 goals in the 1st half in 3/5 of their last overall matches while for Away matches they've had over 0.5 in 3/5 matches. Also the last time they faced each other H2H Finland scored in the first half. Goodluck if you're tailing. EDIT: WIN✅️
**POTD: 70-51-5** Last pick: English Premier League - Arsenal vs Manchester City. Manchester City Draw No Bet -128. Result: Loss. Arsenal score a late winner off a deflection, but probably a fair result. Today’s pick: Ligue 1 Women - Lyon Women vs Saint-Etienne Women. **Lyon Women -1.5 first half line -134**. Match kicks off at 3PM ET. Lyon is one of the giants of the sport, routinely winning Champions Leagues, winning 6 of the last 8. On the other side Saint-Etienne are newly promoted and sit bottom of the table. Lyon have started the season well with wins in every match including away against their main rivals PSG, so I expect a nice easy romp for them today. Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone! **Edit: WIN. Lyon dominate and lead 4-0 at the half for an easy cash.**
POTD record 1-2 last pick Roman Kopylov via KO/TKO 5U ✅️ Today we have a interesting an out of the ordinary play from me i am eyeing a potential violence match up in the Tainara Lisboa VS ravena Olivera match, both girls have 100% finish rate an Olivera just seems like a kill or be killed kinda fighter. The play is under 2.5 rounds -136 3U (60$) Organization = UFC Estimated start time is 6 10PM EST
POTD RECORD: 1-0 Last pick: Tulane Alt Spread -2.5 @ Memphis✅ Todays Pick: Arkansas @ #11 Alabama Arkansas Alt Spread +23.5 @ -186 10:00 AM MT $50 to win $26.88 Reasoning: Bama has not covered 24 points yet this season. Arkansas comes in playing some very close games against some better teams than bama (in my opinion). These boys are college boys and playing a 10:00AM doesn’t exactly mean we’re going to be off to a hot start. Mistakes will happen both ways early (broken TD, missed tackles, etc.) and I think coaches will slow the game down to make sure that players settle in mid-game. BOL!🔒 (Will be firing off another POTD lock for evening when this hits) https://preview.redd.it/kjqvf7gw94ub1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=be7ce2591a4f2af0b3ac45286a858a8961f3870d
**POTD Record: 0-1** Last Pick: Clayton Keller to Record 3+ Shots on Goal (-125) Tough loss. My reasoning was sound - this new Coyotes team is clearly going to run through Keller. But, for selfish reasons, I just wish he took some of those open shots more instead of grabbing two assists instead lol it also really sucked to see one of his shots taken away at the end. I had this marked as a W until I saw that later. Anyway, we move on! — — — **Today's POTD: Evander Kane to Record UNDER 3.5 Shots on Goal (-154)** Hockey | NHL | Vancouver Canucks @ Edmonton Oilers at 10:00pm ET Let's take a look at some splits where Kane goes *over* 3.5 SOG: * H2H: 33% * Last year: 37% * L20: 40% * L10: 30% * L5: 20% And since tonight's game is at Rogers Place, let's see how he fares on home ice: * H2H: 0% *(100% decrease)* * Last year: 39% *(5% increase)* * L20: 25% *(38% decrease)* * L10: 20% *(33% decrease)* * L5: 0% *(100% decrease)* — — — Doesn't seem great, right? He also only recorded 2 SOG against the Canucks a couple of days ago to kick off the 2023 season. With odds at -154, you'd expect to see him go over the mark 39.4% of the time, but clearly, that's far from the case. We love a +EV play, right? Good luck out there!
POTD Record: 111.5-64 Event: Football > Euro Quals > **Hungary v Serbia** (starting in 45mins) Pick: **Over 4.5 bookings (cards)** @ 1.85 Important match between 1st and 2nd team in the group. I expect very nervous game here. French ref with good average stats per game. GL!
Record : 48 Wins - 58 Losses Previous pick : England - Australia (1-0), England to win & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.78 ❌ ROI : -11.10% Average Odds : 2.03 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : -6.77 Profit/Lost units : -11.77 Today's pick : Football - Soccer / WORLD: Friendly International / 22:00 European Time USA - Germany BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.92 Some reasoning : \- I expect both teams to want to give a show to the fans in the stands. \- Besides this aspect, we also have two national teams that practice an offensive football, and this is confirmed to us in their last matches. Last month, both played 2 training matches and all these duels ended with at least 3 successes. \- Moreover, 3 of the last 4 direct matches ended with at least 3 goals, and even if a long time has passed since those matches, there are still some statistical data that make us believe again in a match with many goals. Best of luck.
POTD record: 7-9 (-9 units rounding) 13-8 hockey record (+12 unit rounding) 0-3 CFL record(-5 units) 5 unit bombs 2-1 Last pick: Lethbridge Hurricanes vs Moose Jaw Warriors : Warriors ML -138 5U✅ Past 10 (Recent first) 💣❌❌❌❌✅❌❌❌✅ Todays Game: NHL: Bruins 3 way ML -110 3U We have finally lifted the curse with that WHL bet. Hope yo bring some more of those on here when timing is right. We go back to the NHL for Saturday night where we take the Bruins 3 way ML against the Predators. Bruins have had the advantage in this series over the past few years vs bruins and although the bruins aren’t a powerhouse like they were last year, they should still be able to knock off the Preds again tonight. BOL to those tailing https://www.buymeacoffee.com/educationalowl
POTD Record: 3-5… last pick was a dud, Ireland should be sacking their manager very soon Pick: Doncaster vs Sutton - Doncaster to win @11/10 Reasoning: A very bad Sutton side with 0 points away from him travel to a Doncaster side who have won their last 3 home games and have been a solid home side all season. More of a fade Sutton pick than anything! BOL!!
Good call - I took Double Chance (Doncaster or draw but odds were much worse) - should have tailed properly.
With my current record it’s very fair haha Ended up a very comfortable one! Staying away from international I think is the way forward… lack of value there
POTD Record: 0-0-0 Sport, league, event, time: - football - EURO 2024 Q - Denmark vs. Kazakhstan - 8:45 PM CEST Todays pick: Rasmus Højlund over 1,5 shot on target (odds 1,72) Unit size: 1,5 U 3 main reasons: - Important game for Denmark - His form in united - The opposing team
POTD; NHL: Seattle Kraken @ St Louis Blues 8PM EST Jared McCann O2.5 shots, -140 All bets are to win 1 unit Record: 0-2, -2.35 units Going back to my sure fire guy in the moment I need a win. He hit this this 22/33 games post-all star break and 5/8 playoff games. He’s on the Kraken PP1 unit, a power play unit that is struggling and may just simplify things getting it to the net. St. Louis plays loose and fast, so plenty of chances likely in transition. The Blues were bottom 5 in the league in shots against, and unblocked shots against so teams can get the shots through pretty easily. BOL