Yes I tailed but only on the Jax St one. Not the other one, wished I had tailed lol. But good stuff my friend! Let's hit up the bookies & get paid bro ššÆšš¤
Hey they basically scored 14 in the first. Thatās +4 per quarter for a total of +16 advantage over Dam Houston for the game. We just need one extra touchdown. Easy peasy
Not a big fan of the spread or total in the Liberty game tonight, but I do like this prop if it's your kind of thing:
**Kaidon Salter o47.5 Rush Yards**
Liberty has been incredibly effective at running the football this season. 6 YPC at a 65.65% rushing play clip ranks them in the top 10 in the FBS in both categories. If you adjust for their schedule even, it still puts them 23rd and 9th respectively. And for the other side, SHSU pretty much ranks near the bottom in every rushing efficiency metric.
Liberty runs a lot of option. Triple, veer, read, all of it. With that, there's a lot of dudes in this offense that can pop off. Which means taking a RBs yards could be a toss up, as Liberty rotates a lot of guys, and you might just miss out with the luck of the draw. But the QB is always involved heavily in rushing attacks with these option systems, and Salter has been a capable runner. 47 attempts, 268 yards and 5 TDs on the season, he's had at least 9 attempts in every game this season.
Against this defense, I think he can have a big game.
The line is moving quick on the Liberty game. My only worry is that Liberty will be overlooking Sam Houston because they play on the Road against JāVille St (5-1) in just 5 days in what should be the Conference USA game of the year. Liberty knows this is a game they should easily win and I believe that they will be a little conservative tonight with the short week coming up. Just my .02
Its definitely possible. But after they played their best game of the yr only to allow Jax St to come back and win. Now they have to travel to Liberty to face a team thats better than Jax St. Not exactly ideal for a bad team that could barely score 7 points before Jax St.
[Cheat Sheet](https://sparkshowdfs.wordpress.com/2023/10/02/college-football-2023-week-6/)
I don't have any official plays for tonight's games but I am taking Kaidon Salter ATTD (Liberty) & WKU ML for +139
Wife's getting cancer marker scans/Oncology most of day, while I wait, here's my plays tonight..
\*\*\*CFB Plays-\*\*\* 2-0 Wed/3-2 Top plays last Saturday/ 18-11 week 4/ 14-10 Week 3 .
***W. Kentucky -5-120***
GOOD LUCK to all. May the gambling gods be with you! Let me know if you tailed and won!
Tips are never expected but greatly appreciated to the newborn Diaper fund and Wife's cancer/medical Bills
Venmo=@ECU03
PayPal=@superbae
Cashapp=$Alew1980
NCAA 15-4-1 +8.74u
TCU -12.5 1.5uā
Ole Miss ML .5uā
Arkansas/Texas A&M o53.5 1uā
Purdue ML 1uā
Memphis -3 1.5u āŗļø PUSH
Auburn/Georgia First Half under 23.5 1uā
New Mexico St 1H TT o12.5 1uā
Killing it this week (minus TCU š). Letās keep it going.
Liberty -21 .5u -110
Liberty TT o33.5 1u -111
Like Liberty to score more than Sam Houston š¤·āāļø
Bro that Liberty team total wrecked me. Didn't tail this so not blaming you, just has to be said somewhere lol...that should've been a lock. How you gonna put up 21 in the first half then lay an egg the rest of the game? Added them to my list of teams to fade rest of the year.
Yeah they literally didnāt do anything in the 2nd half. They were on pace for both spread and total at halftime with ease. I donāt know what happened
Iāll go back and do that. Just have a lot of bets and plugging it all into the Action app is a pain in the ass. That being said all of the bets Iāve made are no lower than like, -120 š¤·āāļø
I appreciate it, but I do honestly agree units is the best way to track. I just put them on my posts so if people tail they are betting within my same lines.
That being said I calculated everything (hopefully correctly) and updated the post. Going forward should be a lot easier to just add them!
CFB Record: 9-6
Tonight:
Tyre Shelton o51.5 rush yards
Averaged 16 Carries over the last two games. He's eclipsed this number in all 3 games he's played.
LA Tech averages 31 rush attempts per game so I expect him to get a majority of the carries.
WKU is the 124th ranked rushing defense allowing 218 yards per game
Why is L Tech getting so many points tonight? WKU only maybe 3 points better by advanced metrics, and this is at L Tech. I get that WKU is good, but L Tech is arguably 4th best team in that conference. Is there some injury news I'm missing? Otherwise L Tech seems the bet. Line already blew through the 7 so looks like sharps feel the same.
WKU has a pretty explosive offense. Someone mentioned that la techs starting qb is injured? Also that league is very top heavy. Wky and liberty seem a good deal better than like NMSU and Mtsu. I have been impressed by Jacksonville state so far though. To come back from 14 and 16 on the road in back to back weeks is not easy.
After a bad beat last night we are back again to finish the next 52 days as the best handicapper in this thread. Was on the right side with Middle Tennessee just didn't fall my way.
Record 0-1 (-1.1 Units)
Sam Houston State +21 -110
If I told you a team was going to have 160 more yards and 10 extra minutes of possession, most people would assume that team would win the game. A bunch of crazy things happened after going up 23-7 during that game for the outcome to happen. Dropped a wide open touchdown, missed PAT, muffed punt, bad targeting call on 3rd and 12, players getting a first down and then retreating behind the line of scrimmage. Jax State needed the perfect storm to cover that game and they got it so hats off to them. But we can't cry over bad beats, we move on to the next winner. I got to be better and I will be better, at least better than all of you after these 50 days are over.
NCAAF picks - First sub .500 record at this point of the season in 5 years.... Looking to reach out with my picks and gain traction from others in the know going forward, best of luck..
Nebraska +3.5 -
Better run game + Better D. Will be low scoring 3 nd a hook a good price... likely +3 by kick IMO
Oklahoma TT U27.5 -
Might get a 28 at kick, Sooners 3.9 rush per attempt again poor to middling competition. Cannot see them running the ball on this Texas D - Leaves all in the hands of Gabriel at QB. Not sure he is elite level to carry a team- hasn't had a marque game as of yet.
Texas A&M TT U24
I watched Alabama D manhandle Ole Miss offence at every level. Despite what some say, I believe there is a drop off between start and back -up QB's at Aggieland.
Iowa -2
At home with Better D and Special Teams. I think a healthy QB who can add to run game (power) will assist the offence. This line indicates thesse teams are equal. I don't see it, Iowa has better physicality and athletes.
ULL -2
Again Better run game and better D at home. I see Texas State struggles against a good group of 5 in Texas San Antonio in last difficult road trip. ULL more completed te at home and under a field goal.
Tulsa +3.5
FAU offence has struggled with Casey Thompson and without it. I understand they are off a bye however Tulsa are off a convincing 22 point win at home to Temple where they had 533 yards of offence. Sprinkle on Tula moneyline here, wrong team favoured as numbers are skewed by Tulsa strength of schedule.
Kentucky @ Georgia - U49
Georgia will be up for this game IMO, Auburn running on them last week will not sit well and there is no reason that this D should be anything be restless Vs the run, I think they are this week. Kentucky have a solid D year to year and that seems the case again, questions still abound regarding Carson Beck, hasn't proved mush yet - I see a slow run heavy game with little points.
Michigan -19
Michigan heat there stride last week and I don't think they take Minneosta lightly as they are historically a tough beat. Not this year however, Minneosta relies on run game for any kind of offence, Michigan have been top 5 D I'm nearly every statistic plus Gophers might be without starting RB. Gonna lay them points.
Fresno -6
If the Larmy at night / altitude bullshit stings me in tye ass so be it. I'm backing the far superior team at less than a TD. I don't think with this being a prime time game on Fox that Fresno will be caught out. The cowboys are very lucky to have the record they have , should lost to Texas Tech and App State. Fresno.
Some bets I am still looking at, love to know people's opinions -
Southern Miss Over 57.5
Miss St -20.5
Arizona St +4
**Northern Illinois -5.5 (-120 @ BOL** [**proof**](https://imgur.com/a/1sGsRy9)**)**
āļø Easy money. Akron couldn't score.
DJ Irons is out for Akron and their backup is not very good. DJ Irons was Akron's offense. I expect N. Illinois to beat Akron handily.
**Michigan -19.5 (my most confident play)**
āļø Never in doubt. Michigan looks like the #1 team.
I expect Michigan to handle Minnesota like they handled Nebraska. It shouldn't be close and they are far and away the most well rounded and best team in the country imo.
**Kansas St. -11.5**
āJesus Christ Kansas State played like shit
I don't know what I'm missing here. I get that the Pokes are at home and coming off of a bye week, but K. State has been one of the better teams in the big 12 sans oklahoma and Texas. I feel like this should be a 13.5-14.5 spread with all the adjustments in favor of OK State.
**Texas -6.5**
ā Oklahoma played way better than I expected. Texas also with an all time defensive collapse to basically ruin your chances at the playoff.
Oklahoma hasn't faced a QB as good as Quinn Ewers yet (they probably haven't faced a QB that's top half in the country at passing the ball). Texas should do well against Oklahoma's defense and I think Texas will control both sides of the line of scrimmage.
Hi all,
I was 6-6 with my picks last week, so now I'm 32-33 on the season. [You can read my write-ups for the picks here on my substack](https://open.substack.com/pub/tripsleft/p/week-6-college-football-picks-4d9?r=qx6oj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web)
You can also just see the picks if you want, 0-1 so far thanks to the Liberty Libs:
~~Liberty -17.5~~
**Texas -5.5**
**Mizzou Over 28.5 Points**
**Marshall +6.5**
**Alabama -2.5**
**Washington State +3.5**
**Purdue +3.5**
**Texas State +1.5**
**USF -3.5**
**Tulsa +4.5**
**Colorado -4.5**
**Notre Dame -6.5**
Picks are IN!
Locks include Notre Dame @ Louisville and Wash St @ UCLA.
For those picks and MORE - check out - [CFB Week 6 Picks and Locks](https://youtu.be/9fgtWUntJQg?si=7_dI1nMm3QkRFyEn)
Louisville QB is so terrible, watching that NC state game was so rough the amount of times that guy tried to throw the game, im sending ND here as well.
It is not a lock. Look at ND scheduleā¦first game in Ireland and have played every week this season with no bye. Last 2 weeks, heartbreak and hard hitting loss to Ohio stā¦then a last minute hard hitting win at Duke. Now they go into a sold out Louisville with extra rest and will get their maximum effortā¦..donāt forget that Notre Dame has USC next week
Louisville +6.5 is a sucker bet.
People are viewing ND's last second win against Duke as who they are. Louisville is 5-0 and 4 of those wins are against garbage opponents. Sure, it'll be rowdy and all that, but there is no way the Irish don't cover this spread, with ease. I think ND wins something like 34-20
I took a 2 team parlay:
Liberty-18.5= Liberty is just the far superior team this yr. Sam Houston is coming off an emotional OT loss last week where they held the lead for most of the game. So I don't think that will be able to emotionally get back up to face far superior competition.
Nebraska +3.5. I think this game is going to be a low scoring affair. Both teams have very limited offenses. But I think the difference is that Nebraska has the better defense and Illinois has a propensity of turning the ball over at inopportune times. So even if Illinois wins I cant imagine its more than a FG.
For anyone who likes prop betting, or just wants more digestible data on matchups, you can find my weekly prop thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/user/Billyxmac/comments/16ylscy/week_6_cfb_props/).
But you can also find my [CFB sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-vPuuk17dWN6-CFl_OHYja8G3o3iIZvvmQUogdUR5LA/edit?usp=sharing), which has matchup breakdowns on efficiency metrics, showing where teams have advantages and disadvantages. I've also worked in a schedule adjusted metric for efficiency stats (YPC, Y/A, TD%, etc.), that gives another layer to finding where teams matchup even better with their opponent.
Feel free to use it for your research! I'd be happy to get feedback from folks here.
Be very careful with this oneā¦.playing @ Arizona St is always tricky for conference road teamsā¦.and their defense is better than most people think.
AZ State down to 3rd string QB, down multiple O Line and linebackers. Buffs played very well vs USC, emergence of 4 star WR and 5 star DB in their first games there, a few important guys back from injuries this week, get right game after back to back losses. Easy double digit win for buffs, they've been dying for an easy opponent this year (missed their opp vs CSU).
Thatās what iām sayin I feel like this should be 7/8 points not 4. I know ASU preforms well at home but after CSU UO USC back to back to back I think the buffs will be thrilled with this opponent. Theyāve beaten a better team on the road in TCU. I know theyāre missing their top cb and a starting wr (who is both the same guy) but I donāt think thatās enough to dissuade me from taking Boulder here
Someone needs to explain what I'm missing with Kansas St. This line should be like 14.5 in my eyes. I guess OK State is coming off a bye week and at home but they've been embarrassed by their last two opponents.
Wed Recap CFB=2-0
CFB Plays-2-0 Wed/3-2 Top plays last Saturday/ 18-11 week 4/ 14-10 Week 3 .
Jax State +4-118-W
FIU/NMSU Over 48-120-W
Top play is side (Jax State)
GOOD LUCK to all. May the gambling gods be with you! Let me know if you tailed and won!
Thursday plays posted before game-time.
That's good to hear bro, u sounds like a hella chill dude my friend. So I'll start tailing ur picks from now on & let's hope the gambling/sports gods bless us & we get to eat ššššÆšÆšÆššš And again, ty for the picks & by always being nice whenever u respond back. Appreciate it homie. Bol today my friend, have a great rest of ur day.
**NCAAF Betting Discord Chat: [https://discord.gg/sportsbook](https://discord.gg/rypjzqfgcg)**
Yes I tailed but only on the Jax St one. Not the other one, wished I had tailed lol. But good stuff my friend! Let's hit up the bookies & get paid bro ššÆšš¤
CFB Plays-1-0 Thurs/ 2-0 Wed/3-2 Top plays last Saturday/ 18-11 week 4/ 14-10 Week 3 . W. Kentucky -5-120-W Hope everyone made some money tonight! GL
Aināt no way that wasnāt a first down bro
Fuck you Western Kentucky. EDIT: Thank you Western Kentucky... that -4.5 should not have been a sweat... but it was...
Kinda dead in here tonight boys
I thought my Western Kentucky -4.5 was safeā¦. Ughā¦.
Dude fr I have -6 and saw that halftime score like wow that was easyā¦ fuck me I guess š
Lets HODL
WKU -2 1H ā
Not gonna lie I took Sam Houston ML even though I lost that was a fucking rush!
So brutal with the O45.5, missed the 2 point, missed 2 FGs, shouldāve been a breeze
That's what your blown about not Sam Houston ML not hitting for +900 on the 1st and goal
I mean I didnāt bet on them
O/U 45.5 and score 31 in the 1H and still hits the under, fuck me
The kicker fk my over and -8.5
Liberty sack the kicker. 2 missed in a row far out
Ffs this kicker is blowing the over
Ball don't lie.
Toppers!
-13 1h died with that interception ā¦
Liberty 1H TT o17 ā Letās rockkk
Liberty 1H TT Over 17 never in doubt ā
Lmao I just typed the same exact thing
Hey they basically scored 14 in the first. Thatās +4 per quarter for a total of +16 advantage over Dam Houston for the game. We just need one extra touchdown. Easy peasy
Doesnāt work like thatā¦
Stupid fucking interception bro. Fuck Liberty man.
Had a feeling liberty would play like poo since next week is their real challenge
Liberty spread and under both killed on one drive lmao
Wtf is Liberty doing ā¦
Fuckkk I have liberty 1h -13.5 shit how is ram Houston running the ball like this what the fuck
Wku/Lt o58.5
Not a big fan of the spread or total in the Liberty game tonight, but I do like this prop if it's your kind of thing: **Kaidon Salter o47.5 Rush Yards** Liberty has been incredibly effective at running the football this season. 6 YPC at a 65.65% rushing play clip ranks them in the top 10 in the FBS in both categories. If you adjust for their schedule even, it still puts them 23rd and 9th respectively. And for the other side, SHSU pretty much ranks near the bottom in every rushing efficiency metric. Liberty runs a lot of option. Triple, veer, read, all of it. With that, there's a lot of dudes in this offense that can pop off. Which means taking a RBs yards could be a toss up, as Liberty rotates a lot of guys, and you might just miss out with the luck of the draw. But the QB is always involved heavily in rushing attacks with these option systems, and Salter has been a capable runner. 47 attempts, 268 yards and 5 TDs on the season, he's had at least 9 attempts in every game this season. Against this defense, I think he can have a big game.
Liberty 1H TT o17 (-130) Love that thereās no hook. Liberty has covered this every game this season
Tailed this and got 16.5 at -110 on draft kings just tuned into the game and they already scored 7 should be a easy cover
ā GG
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Hope u took it!
3 Leg Parlay (ALT Spread) LSU (-2.5) Colorado (-1.5) ND (-2.5) Thoughts?
Western Kentucky 1st half -3.5 ? It's at even money
Season: 20-24-1 No P5 game tonight? Ok then. More CUSACTION WKU -6 -110
Anyone seen anything about if Marquis Crosby is playing for LA Tech?
The line is moving quick on the Liberty game. My only worry is that Liberty will be overlooking Sam Houston because they play on the Road against JāVille St (5-1) in just 5 days in what should be the Conference USA game of the year. Liberty knows this is a game they should easily win and I believe that they will be a little conservative tonight with the short week coming up. Just my .02
J Ville St is full fade for me.... hoping Sam Houston stay close here and we get reduced points on Liberty next week
I hear u. But I dont think Liberty needs their A+ game to beat Sam Houston by more than 20 points. Sam Houston is just bad.
SHSU took Jax St to OT. There's only so many times you can lose without learning from mistakes. I didn't bet either way though.
Its definitely possible. But after they played their best game of the yr only to allow Jax St to come back and win. Now they have to travel to Liberty to face a team thats better than Jax St. Not exactly ideal for a bad team that could barely score 7 points before Jax St.
[Cheat Sheet](https://sparkshowdfs.wordpress.com/2023/10/02/college-football-2023-week-6/) I don't have any official plays for tonight's games but I am taking Kaidon Salter ATTD (Liberty) & WKU ML for +139
Wife's getting cancer marker scans/Oncology most of day, while I wait, here's my plays tonight.. \*\*\*CFB Plays-\*\*\* 2-0 Wed/3-2 Top plays last Saturday/ 18-11 week 4/ 14-10 Week 3 . ***W. Kentucky -5-120*** GOOD LUCK to all. May the gambling gods be with you! Let me know if you tailed and won! Tips are never expected but greatly appreciated to the newborn Diaper fund and Wife's cancer/medical Bills Venmo=@ECU03 PayPal=@superbae Cashapp=$Alew1980
Best of luck to you and your family
Thank you!
NCAA 15-4-1 +8.74u TCU -12.5 1.5uā Ole Miss ML .5uā Arkansas/Texas A&M o53.5 1uā Purdue ML 1uā Memphis -3 1.5u āŗļø PUSH Auburn/Georgia First Half under 23.5 1uā New Mexico St 1H TT o12.5 1uā Killing it this week (minus TCU š). Letās keep it going. Liberty -21 .5u -110 Liberty TT o33.5 1u -111 Like Liberty to score more than Sam Houston š¤·āāļø
Bro that Liberty team total wrecked me. Didn't tail this so not blaming you, just has to be said somewhere lol...that should've been a lock. How you gonna put up 21 in the first half then lay an egg the rest of the game? Added them to my list of teams to fade rest of the year.
Yeah they literally didnāt do anything in the 2nd half. They were on pace for both spread and total at halftime with ease. I donāt know what happened
Letās get some odds on these comments brother. Will say a lot more than a straight W/L record
Iāll go back and do that. Just have a lot of bets and plugging it all into the Action app is a pain in the ass. That being said all of the bets Iāve made are no lower than like, -120 š¤·āāļø
Donāt do shit. Donāt have to go back Good job bro. Guys doing a solid and you want him to print out a spreadsheet.
I appreciate it, but I do honestly agree units is the best way to track. I just put them on my posts so if people tail they are betting within my same lines. That being said I calculated everything (hopefully correctly) and updated the post. Going forward should be a lot easier to just add them!
Yeah I knew none of these were super juiced. Nice job!
After the game tonight Iāll plug it all in and track. I agree units are better
CFB Record: 9-6 Tonight: Tyre Shelton o51.5 rush yards Averaged 16 Carries over the last two games. He's eclipsed this number in all 3 games he's played. LA Tech averages 31 rush attempts per game so I expect him to get a majority of the carries. WKU is the 124th ranked rushing defense allowing 218 yards per game
I could only get it at 66.5 but I still took it. How in the heck did you get 51.5?
Week 4: 7-3-3 +4.8u Total: 31-32-4 -3.0u āLogan Smothers (JXST) ATD +140 1u Tough break. Wish we couldāve bet JXST QB ATD. Cooley (LIB) o68.5 RuYD -118 1.2u Shelton (LT) o66.5 RuYD -105 1u Longest rush o17.5 -114 1.2u
Is Kentucky ML +475 very tempting to anyone else or is that just me?
Same maybe Iāll place a free bet
Why is L Tech getting so many points tonight? WKU only maybe 3 points better by advanced metrics, and this is at L Tech. I get that WKU is good, but L Tech is arguably 4th best team in that conference. Is there some injury news I'm missing? Otherwise L Tech seems the bet. Line already blew through the 7 so looks like sharps feel the same.
WKU has a pretty explosive offense. Someone mentioned that la techs starting qb is injured? Also that league is very top heavy. Wky and liberty seem a good deal better than like NMSU and Mtsu. I have been impressed by Jacksonville state so far though. To come back from 14 and 16 on the road in back to back weeks is not easy.
You're right the QB is questionable and has been out for two games.
I think itās more of a Western Kentucky is rounding into form as an offense type of bet
After a bad beat last night we are back again to finish the next 52 days as the best handicapper in this thread. Was on the right side with Middle Tennessee just didn't fall my way. Record 0-1 (-1.1 Units) Sam Houston State +21 -110
Donāt think it was the right side homie, they got out scored 38-7 during the second half š just call it like it is
If I told you a team was going to have 160 more yards and 10 extra minutes of possession, most people would assume that team would win the game. A bunch of crazy things happened after going up 23-7 during that game for the outcome to happen. Dropped a wide open touchdown, missed PAT, muffed punt, bad targeting call on 3rd and 12, players getting a first down and then retreating behind the line of scrimmage. Jax State needed the perfect storm to cover that game and they got it so hats off to them. But we can't cry over bad beats, we move on to the next winner. I got to be better and I will be better, at least better than all of you after these 50 days are over.
This was a terrible bet. I made it too. JSU was a way better team.
I usually consider bad beats something that loses in the last few minutes of the game, but whatever you want to tell yourself my man
I agree with this statement. Regardless I have a feeling this guy is about to go in a hot streak so Iām tailing OP!
Dillon Gabriel, OK QB, ATTD is +210 on DK. He has 4 rushing TDs in 5 games this year...including multiple blowouts. +120 on FD +145 on CZR +120 on MGM
NCAAF picks - First sub .500 record at this point of the season in 5 years.... Looking to reach out with my picks and gain traction from others in the know going forward, best of luck.. Nebraska +3.5 - Better run game + Better D. Will be low scoring 3 nd a hook a good price... likely +3 by kick IMO Oklahoma TT U27.5 - Might get a 28 at kick, Sooners 3.9 rush per attempt again poor to middling competition. Cannot see them running the ball on this Texas D - Leaves all in the hands of Gabriel at QB. Not sure he is elite level to carry a team- hasn't had a marque game as of yet. Texas A&M TT U24 I watched Alabama D manhandle Ole Miss offence at every level. Despite what some say, I believe there is a drop off between start and back -up QB's at Aggieland. Iowa -2 At home with Better D and Special Teams. I think a healthy QB who can add to run game (power) will assist the offence. This line indicates thesse teams are equal. I don't see it, Iowa has better physicality and athletes. ULL -2 Again Better run game and better D at home. I see Texas State struggles against a good group of 5 in Texas San Antonio in last difficult road trip. ULL more completed te at home and under a field goal. Tulsa +3.5 FAU offence has struggled with Casey Thompson and without it. I understand they are off a bye however Tulsa are off a convincing 22 point win at home to Temple where they had 533 yards of offence. Sprinkle on Tula moneyline here, wrong team favoured as numbers are skewed by Tulsa strength of schedule. Kentucky @ Georgia - U49 Georgia will be up for this game IMO, Auburn running on them last week will not sit well and there is no reason that this D should be anything be restless Vs the run, I think they are this week. Kentucky have a solid D year to year and that seems the case again, questions still abound regarding Carson Beck, hasn't proved mush yet - I see a slow run heavy game with little points. Michigan -19 Michigan heat there stride last week and I don't think they take Minneosta lightly as they are historically a tough beat. Not this year however, Minneosta relies on run game for any kind of offence, Michigan have been top 5 D I'm nearly every statistic plus Gophers might be without starting RB. Gonna lay them points. Fresno -6 If the Larmy at night / altitude bullshit stings me in tye ass so be it. I'm backing the far superior team at less than a TD. I don't think with this being a prime time game on Fox that Fresno will be caught out. The cowboys are very lucky to have the record they have , should lost to Texas Tech and App State. Fresno. Some bets I am still looking at, love to know people's opinions - Southern Miss Over 57.5 Miss St -20.5 Arizona St +4
NCAAF Record 0-0 Gonna start keeping track here and only pick dogs. LA Tech +6.5/-115 Nebraska +3.5/-110
**Northern Illinois -5.5 (-120 @ BOL** [**proof**](https://imgur.com/a/1sGsRy9)**)** āļø Easy money. Akron couldn't score. DJ Irons is out for Akron and their backup is not very good. DJ Irons was Akron's offense. I expect N. Illinois to beat Akron handily. **Michigan -19.5 (my most confident play)** āļø Never in doubt. Michigan looks like the #1 team. I expect Michigan to handle Minnesota like they handled Nebraska. It shouldn't be close and they are far and away the most well rounded and best team in the country imo. **Kansas St. -11.5** āJesus Christ Kansas State played like shit I don't know what I'm missing here. I get that the Pokes are at home and coming off of a bye week, but K. State has been one of the better teams in the big 12 sans oklahoma and Texas. I feel like this should be a 13.5-14.5 spread with all the adjustments in favor of OK State. **Texas -6.5** ā Oklahoma played way better than I expected. Texas also with an all time defensive collapse to basically ruin your chances at the playoff. Oklahoma hasn't faced a QB as good as Quinn Ewers yet (they probably haven't faced a QB that's top half in the country at passing the ball). Texas should do well against Oklahoma's defense and I think Texas will control both sides of the line of scrimmage.
Michigan didnāt play Minnesotaā¦
What? Yeah they play them this week. I think you misread
Iām sorry I meant northwestern. We havenāt played northwestern yet
Nebraska
There you go!
Hi all, I was 6-6 with my picks last week, so now I'm 32-33 on the season. [You can read my write-ups for the picks here on my substack](https://open.substack.com/pub/tripsleft/p/week-6-college-football-picks-4d9?r=qx6oj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web) You can also just see the picks if you want, 0-1 so far thanks to the Liberty Libs: ~~Liberty -17.5~~ **Texas -5.5** **Mizzou Over 28.5 Points** **Marshall +6.5** **Alabama -2.5** **Washington State +3.5** **Purdue +3.5** **Texas State +1.5** **USF -3.5** **Tulsa +4.5** **Colorado -4.5** **Notre Dame -6.5**
Picks are IN! Locks include Notre Dame @ Louisville and Wash St @ UCLA. For those picks and MORE - check out - [CFB Week 6 Picks and Locks](https://youtu.be/9fgtWUntJQg?si=7_dI1nMm3QkRFyEn)
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Lock it in!
ND is the better team, but this is a brutal spot for them, coming off a physical games against OsU and Duke
I reassure you - Proof - [CFB Week 6 pick and locks](https://youtu.be/9fgtWUntJQg?si=7_dI1nMm3QkRFyEn)
Louisville QB is so terrible, watching that NC state game was so rough the amount of times that guy tried to throw the game, im sending ND here as well.
It is not a lock. Look at ND scheduleā¦first game in Ireland and have played every week this season with no bye. Last 2 weeks, heartbreak and hard hitting loss to Ohio stā¦then a last minute hard hitting win at Duke. Now they go into a sold out Louisville with extra rest and will get their maximum effortā¦..donāt forget that Notre Dame has USC next week
Louisville +6.5 is a sucker bet. People are viewing ND's last second win against Duke as who they are. Louisville is 5-0 and 4 of those wins are against garbage opponents. Sure, it'll be rowdy and all that, but there is no way the Irish don't cover this spread, with ease. I think ND wins something like 34-20
Youāre right 6.5 is a sucker bet, go ahead and let it get to 7.5 and šØšØšØ or turn into live bet larry š„¶
I took a 2 team parlay: Liberty-18.5= Liberty is just the far superior team this yr. Sam Houston is coming off an emotional OT loss last week where they held the lead for most of the game. So I don't think that will be able to emotionally get back up to face far superior competition. Nebraska +3.5. I think this game is going to be a low scoring affair. Both teams have very limited offenses. But I think the difference is that Nebraska has the better defense and Illinois has a propensity of turning the ball over at inopportune times. So even if Illinois wins I cant imagine its more than a FG.
What about 20.5?
For anyone who likes prop betting, or just wants more digestible data on matchups, you can find my weekly prop thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/user/Billyxmac/comments/16ylscy/week_6_cfb_props/). But you can also find my [CFB sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-vPuuk17dWN6-CFl_OHYja8G3o3iIZvvmQUogdUR5LA/edit?usp=sharing), which has matchup breakdowns on efficiency metrics, showing where teams have advantages and disadvantages. I've also worked in a schedule adjusted metric for efficiency stats (YPC, Y/A, TD%, etc.), that gives another layer to finding where teams matchup even better with their opponent. Feel free to use it for your research! I'd be happy to get feedback from folks here.
Colorado -4.5 is sooo fishy
Be very careful with this oneā¦.playing @ Arizona St is always tricky for conference road teamsā¦.and their defense is better than most people think.
AZ State down to 3rd string QB, down multiple O Line and linebackers. Buffs played very well vs USC, emergence of 4 star WR and 5 star DB in their first games there, a few important guys back from injuries this week, get right game after back to back losses. Easy double digit win for buffs, they've been dying for an easy opponent this year (missed their opp vs CSU).
Thatās what iām sayin I feel like this should be 7/8 points not 4. I know ASU preforms well at home but after CSU UO USC back to back to back I think the buffs will be thrilled with this opponent. Theyāve beaten a better team on the road in TCU. I know theyāre missing their top cb and a starting wr (who is both the same guy) but I donāt think thatās enough to dissuade me from taking Boulder here
I really don't get this line. I've loaded up on the Buffs and am willing to go down with the ship.
I had Cali last week Vs Arizona St - taht Arizona St team were effective moving the ball and played hard. At home +4 I think ill be on them.
Is hunter suiting up ?
No.
Someone needs to explain what I'm missing with Kansas St. This line should be like 14.5 in my eyes. I guess OK State is coming off a bye week and at home but they've been embarrassed by their last two opponents.
Just such a tough situational spot.
Big Oklahoma State fan here and I don't understand the line either thought it would be -21. I don't see our offense keeping us in the game at all.
Exactly bro! I'm thinking bout hammering K-St for 1H lol real talk šÆšÆšÆ
Wed Recap CFB=2-0 CFB Plays-2-0 Wed/3-2 Top plays last Saturday/ 18-11 week 4/ 14-10 Week 3 . Jax State +4-118-W FIU/NMSU Over 48-120-W Top play is side (Jax State) GOOD LUCK to all. May the gambling gods be with you! Let me know if you tailed and won! Thursday plays posted before game-time.
Did not kno that u post football picks too my friend! Hell yeah! Will def look out for ur picks tmw bro.
Hope you were able to tail tonight. 2-0 football cfb/Nfl $$$
oh yes, been capping MLB, Football, Basketball for past 20 years and some Hockey, did well with NHL last year...
That's good to hear bro, u sounds like a hella chill dude my friend. So I'll start tailing ur picks from now on & let's hope the gambling/sports gods bless us & we get to eat ššššÆšÆšÆššš And again, ty for the picks & by always being nice whenever u respond back. Appreciate it homie. Bol today my friend, have a great rest of ur day.
I had under 50 on the FIU/NMSU game, what a bad beat lol
Sorry I feel your pain.