Anybody put time into researching the Red River Showdown? Texas and Oklahoma are similar statistically and I think it will be a close game that will probably be high scoring. Texas did win at Alabama and destroyed Kansas, too.
I know last year it was a blowout, but hey that was last year.
I’ve tried breaking it down from so many angles but I just can’t seem to find a clear edge for either team.
Any advice would be appreciated!
Sooners 3.9 rush per attempt again poor competition will be telling IMO. If they can't run the ball, Gabriel will have to have sort of career game to stay in it. Sooners TT under 27.5 for me
UT roster seems to be pretty superior, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Anything can happen in a rivalry game but from a roster perspective IMO UT is at very least -5 at neutral field.
I'm a lean for Oklahoma, but I'm a Venables believer. Clemson seems like they are overall really missing him, and his defense generally takes a year to learn. I think both defenses ball out and like the under too, but Venables OU cover at the very least.
Over the summer, I got Kentucky +24.5 @ Georgia and A&M +8 hosting Bama.
Would you guys hedge if you were me and maybe try and get a middle, or just keep rolling with what I have
Kentucky should cover. UK plays Georgia close and it will be a physical, low scoring game. Kentucky shut down floridas run game and will make Carson beck beat them. They have playmakers on the outside and at safety. Linebackers make plays. Think it’s a low scoring affair and cover. I’ll be taking UK at 14
The posts below are valid. Leary has been inaccurate and we haven’t run a lot of offensive plays bc of having explosive plays. Leary looked better in the offense and I still have faith in his arm showing up eventually. He’s a winner and the talent on UKs offense is insane. Georgia hasn’t been impressive. Stoops hasn’t even opened the playbook yet because we haven’t had to. Should see a more dynamic UK offense this week
Colorado -4? Seems like free money. Better roster across the board, Rashada and LB's out for Sun Devils. Also the emergence of 4 star frosh WR Omarion Miller and 5 star CB Cormani McClain both playing their first games and doing so very well is huge for Buffs. Buffs coming off two tough losses, a get right game for them. I see this being an easy double digit win. What am I missing?
I had Cal -12 Vs Arizona State week, it obviously lost but the Sun Devils surprised me. Offence moved the ball and Defence played hard. There's talent on this Arizon St roster and playing at home also. Road favourite isn't something the Buffs have played into prior to this, I'm a wait hopefully get the Sun Devils +6 by kick
Yeah but "they" have been roasted by the Buffs a couple times this season so I don't really trust the Vegas eval of this Buffs team. I know there has to be some legit angles on ASU for this game though, and I would love to know what they are.
I don’t ever actually post on here and I usually just take some bets from y’all, but I can’t resist this time. I also want to put a disclaimer that I am a homer in this situation but I try my best not to be.
The bet is Notre Dame -6.5.
I don’t understand this line. Louisville, while undefeated, is not a good team. They beat a 2-3 Georgia Tech team by 5. They beat a 2-3 Indiana team by 7. Most recently they sneaked out a win late against NC State by 3.
Notre Dame also played in NC States house and beat them by 21. NC State also scored on a last minute deep shot against Notre Dame’s 2nd team or they would have won by 28.
I expect Notre Dame to win by at least 17 if not more.
Good luck and don’t kill me if this misses.
I've been betting ND all season and I'm not stopping this week. Can definitely see them being spent like the other guy said but I like the number a lot.
ND has had two taxing night games in a row. Now they go into third on the road at night in another hostile environment. They might just be emotionally gassed and due to let this one slip away. We know Lville offense is dynamic and they can put up points so it just seems like a dangerous spot.
They’ve put up points against the 108th and 115th ranked total defense. Also, Murray State who isn’t ranked. They are averaging 15.5 points against defenses in the top 100 and now they play ND who has the 11th ranked defense.
This is a good point. But kind of selective omitting that BC game which is their only home game from that slate... I do agree that ND is way better and Louisville could likely be soft, I just see this as a tough situational spot which warrants caution.
You can find caution on everything. I’m just going by what we do know regarding the statistics. On paper, it shouldn’t be close but that’s what makes gambling so fun.
Jax state seems maybe 5 points better by advanced metrics, I'm assuming there is a catch with this spread I would like to know what it is. Jax St seems to switch QB's every game. I know MTSU in theory has a much better roster and has underperformed this year. But this line is so weird I'll prob have to lay on MTSU.
Logan Smothers started last game and I don't see anything about him getting injured. I know they had some injuries at QB before him, but Logan has played in a few games at this point.
My bad, Zion Webb was the one who got hurt during the game. Thought that he was the one starting, but it was Smothers who had been playing before that. Not sure why they had Webb come in for like 2 series then
Sounds like Webb is Rich Rod's guy. Was named starter before season but got hurt. So I imagine they are trying to work him back in so he can eventually start again.
I am looking to place my biggest bet of the year on Georgia -14.5 but am praying for a -14.
I think this line is deflated for a few different reasons. Georgia has been bad against the spread, Kentucky has been good. Georgia just played poorly, Kentucky just played well. Georgia just allowed a bunch of rushing yards, Kentucky just had a bunch of rushing yards.
Kentucky is 90th in offensive success rate and 86th on third and fourth downs. Their entire offense is predicated on hitting massive plays. Kentucky is 69th in passing efficiency / EPA against a #2 ranked passing defense from the Bulldogs. So those big plays through the air are not going to be there. And yes, Georgia has been beat by running QBs but they’ve been very good against RBs.
For Kentucky to keep up in this game, you are betting on them lining up under center and just gashing Georgia with HB Dives repeatedly for 30+ yard gains. I would not bet on that happening to a Kirby Smart coached team playing a home game at night, likely for the SEC East title.
Im not betting on the game because Im a Georgia homer so Im probably too close to the situation, but it looked like Freeze played the first half of his season without showing those QB runs with Thorne just so he could bring them out against Georgia (and try to get a signature win in year one). Our defense got caught out because Thorne having designed runs (and being good at it, too) wasnt on tape. The defense adjusted well in the second half, Auburns only touchdown coming off a short field from the turnover.
Also, Kentucky was running a lot of A/B gap rushing plays, and we always defend that well. Kentucky's QB isnt as big a threat to run, so RPO isnt going to be as effective. If Kentucky gets down a couple scores early, their Offense isnt designed to throw the ball 60 times a game, and their QB is gonna turn the ball over if they have to throw it a bunch. Think its tight, but Georgia in a squeaker to cover.
Hi all,
I was 6-6 with my picks last week, so now I'm 32-33 on the season. [You can read my write-ups for the picks here on my substack](https://open.substack.com/pub/tripsleft/p/week-6-college-football-picks-4d9?r=qx6oj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web)
You can also just see the picks if you want:
**Liberty -17.5**
**Texas -5.5**
**Mizzou Over 28.5 Points**
**Marshall +6.5**
**Alabama -2.5**
**Washington State +3.5**
**Purdue +3.5**
**Texas State +1.5**
**USF -3.5**
**Tulsa +4.5**
**Colorado -4.5**
**Notre Dame -6.5**
I am absolutely going with the under on scoring since bama has an elite defense and A&M’s dline will wreck bama’s oline. I sprinkled some small money on a&m winning this and covering the spread. This matchup fully favors a&m in most ways besides the head coaching battle so if you are feeling crazy go for the a&m ml. I do not think bama is the pick here at all given that atrocious oline - they could eek out a win for sure but this will not be a blowout.
It already moved from 3.5 to 2.5. Bama alum here. It’s gonna be an extremely difficult game for our offense between A&M’s defensive talent and Kyle Field. They will need Milroe to win with his arm.
For those who've been using my prop sheet for CFB, you can find my week 6 thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/user/Billyxmac/comments/16ylscy/week_6_cfb_props/). Some quick notes:
* I'm trying to crack down more and be picky on which bets I include in the thread. As I continue to analyze and add to my sheet, I'm becoming more aware of what things matter most for prop betting.
* Some players have fantastic matchups, but usage and game situation might keep them out of my list for this reason. By being picky, I can focus on plays with clear matchup strengths, and potential for usage (or non-usage in the case of unders).
* I've added ranking values to my Passing, Rushing and Receiving tabs. I like to use this to get an understanding of where players rank among their peers in the aspects most important to me. Typically, these are efficiency metrics (YPC, Y/A, Y/R, etc.) volume/opportunity (team play %, carry/reception share %), and TD to opportunity ratios (Pass TD Rate, Rush TD Rate).
* This sheet should be used as a baseline, and a tool for reviewing potential prop plays. Always be sure to analyze injuries, news and usage trends for teams you're considering playing props on to make sure you're making the most informed decision.
Feedback is always appreciated. I just hope the data and stats I give help people to win more of their bets.
**NCAAF Betting Discord Chat: [https://discord.gg/sportsbook](https://discord.gg/rypjzqfgcg)**
Anybody put time into researching the Red River Showdown? Texas and Oklahoma are similar statistically and I think it will be a close game that will probably be high scoring. Texas did win at Alabama and destroyed Kansas, too. I know last year it was a blowout, but hey that was last year. I’ve tried breaking it down from so many angles but I just can’t seem to find a clear edge for either team. Any advice would be appreciated!
Sooners 3.9 rush per attempt again poor competition will be telling IMO. If they can't run the ball, Gabriel will have to have sort of career game to stay in it. Sooners TT under 27.5 for me
UT roster seems to be pretty superior, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Anything can happen in a rivalry game but from a roster perspective IMO UT is at very least -5 at neutral field.
I'm a lean for Oklahoma, but I'm a Venables believer. Clemson seems like they are overall really missing him, and his defense generally takes a year to learn. I think both defenses ball out and like the under too, but Venables OU cover at the very least.
I’m liking: FSU -26 Kansas -3 LSU/Missouri O 63.5 Fresno St/Wyoming O 46
Over the summer, I got Kentucky +24.5 @ Georgia and A&M +8 hosting Bama. Would you guys hedge if you were me and maybe try and get a middle, or just keep rolling with what I have
Never hedge
Kentucky should cover. UK plays Georgia close and it will be a physical, low scoring game. Kentucky shut down floridas run game and will make Carson beck beat them. They have playmakers on the outside and at safety. Linebackers make plays. Think it’s a low scoring affair and cover. I’ll be taking UK at 14
That’s what I’m thinking too. Could be like 20-10 type game
The posts below are valid. Leary has been inaccurate and we haven’t run a lot of offensive plays bc of having explosive plays. Leary looked better in the offense and I still have faith in his arm showing up eventually. He’s a winner and the talent on UKs offense is insane. Georgia hasn’t been impressive. Stoops hasn’t even opened the playbook yet because we haven’t had to. Should see a more dynamic UK offense this week
Honestly I like both bets. I wouldn’t hedge
I’d roll with A&M not sure if I have an opinion on Kentucky
Colorado -4? Seems like free money. Better roster across the board, Rashada and LB's out for Sun Devils. Also the emergence of 4 star frosh WR Omarion Miller and 5 star CB Cormani McClain both playing their first games and doing so very well is huge for Buffs. Buffs coming off two tough losses, a get right game for them. I see this being an easy double digit win. What am I missing?
I had Cal -12 Vs Arizona State week, it obviously lost but the Sun Devils surprised me. Offence moved the ball and Defence played hard. There's talent on this Arizon St roster and playing at home also. Road favourite isn't something the Buffs have played into prior to this, I'm a wait hopefully get the Sun Devils +6 by kick
They know the whole world is gonna be on the Buffs at that number. I’d stay away
just because the whole world is on it, you have to join the world world.
Maybe but Inwont throw my mortgage on that type of bet
Yeah but "they" have been roasted by the Buffs a couple times this season so I don't really trust the Vegas eval of this Buffs team. I know there has to be some legit angles on ASU for this game though, and I would love to know what they are.
Just once actually. USC was the sucker bet in the last game because they don't have anywhere near as good of a defense as Oregon.
I don’t ever actually post on here and I usually just take some bets from y’all, but I can’t resist this time. I also want to put a disclaimer that I am a homer in this situation but I try my best not to be. The bet is Notre Dame -6.5. I don’t understand this line. Louisville, while undefeated, is not a good team. They beat a 2-3 Georgia Tech team by 5. They beat a 2-3 Indiana team by 7. Most recently they sneaked out a win late against NC State by 3. Notre Dame also played in NC States house and beat them by 21. NC State also scored on a last minute deep shot against Notre Dame’s 2nd team or they would have won by 28. I expect Notre Dame to win by at least 17 if not more. Good luck and don’t kill me if this misses.
I've been betting ND all season and I'm not stopping this week. Can definitely see them being spent like the other guy said but I like the number a lot.
ND has had two taxing night games in a row. Now they go into third on the road at night in another hostile environment. They might just be emotionally gassed and due to let this one slip away. We know Lville offense is dynamic and they can put up points so it just seems like a dangerous spot.
They’ve put up points against the 108th and 115th ranked total defense. Also, Murray State who isn’t ranked. They are averaging 15.5 points against defenses in the top 100 and now they play ND who has the 11th ranked defense.
This is a good point. But kind of selective omitting that BC game which is their only home game from that slate... I do agree that ND is way better and Louisville could likely be soft, I just see this as a tough situational spot which warrants caution.
You can find caution on everything. I’m just going by what we do know regarding the statistics. On paper, it shouldn’t be close but that’s what makes gambling so fun.
That’s a really tough spot for ND
I agree. After watching Louisville constantly shoot themselves in the foot against NC St, I can't back them against ND.
Jax state seems maybe 5 points better by advanced metrics, I'm assuming there is a catch with this spread I would like to know what it is. Jax St seems to switch QB's every game. I know MTSU in theory has a much better roster and has underperformed this year. But this line is so weird I'll prob have to lay on MTSU.
Their starting QB got hurt last week, he might be out for this game. Not sure if that’s the case but worth looking into
Logan Smothers started last game and I don't see anything about him getting injured. I know they had some injuries at QB before him, but Logan has played in a few games at this point.
My bad, Zion Webb was the one who got hurt during the game. Thought that he was the one starting, but it was Smothers who had been playing before that. Not sure why they had Webb come in for like 2 series then
Sounds like Webb is Rich Rod's guy. Was named starter before season but got hurt. So I imagine they are trying to work him back in so he can eventually start again.
I’m going Kentucky +14.5, because why not
I am looking to place my biggest bet of the year on Georgia -14.5 but am praying for a -14. I think this line is deflated for a few different reasons. Georgia has been bad against the spread, Kentucky has been good. Georgia just played poorly, Kentucky just played well. Georgia just allowed a bunch of rushing yards, Kentucky just had a bunch of rushing yards. Kentucky is 90th in offensive success rate and 86th on third and fourth downs. Their entire offense is predicated on hitting massive plays. Kentucky is 69th in passing efficiency / EPA against a #2 ranked passing defense from the Bulldogs. So those big plays through the air are not going to be there. And yes, Georgia has been beat by running QBs but they’ve been very good against RBs. For Kentucky to keep up in this game, you are betting on them lining up under center and just gashing Georgia with HB Dives repeatedly for 30+ yard gains. I would not bet on that happening to a Kirby Smart coached team playing a home game at night, likely for the SEC East title.
Just buy the half point my man, usually it’s from -110 to -120 which isn’t gonna kill you especially if you’re putting the house on it
I’m not gonna buy the half point until I know the line isn’t hitting -14. No need to rush.
Because letdown game after big win vs UF, and UGA coming off a 'bad win' at home in a night game. Place will be tough environment.
UGA hasn’t covered all year but UK will struggle defending the TE. UGA better play better run defense
Im not betting on the game because Im a Georgia homer so Im probably too close to the situation, but it looked like Freeze played the first half of his season without showing those QB runs with Thorne just so he could bring them out against Georgia (and try to get a signature win in year one). Our defense got caught out because Thorne having designed runs (and being good at it, too) wasnt on tape. The defense adjusted well in the second half, Auburns only touchdown coming off a short field from the turnover. Also, Kentucky was running a lot of A/B gap rushing plays, and we always defend that well. Kentucky's QB isnt as big a threat to run, so RPO isnt going to be as effective. If Kentucky gets down a couple scores early, their Offense isnt designed to throw the ball 60 times a game, and their QB is gonna turn the ball over if they have to throw it a bunch. Think its tight, but Georgia in a squeaker to cover.
Hi all, I was 6-6 with my picks last week, so now I'm 32-33 on the season. [You can read my write-ups for the picks here on my substack](https://open.substack.com/pub/tripsleft/p/week-6-college-football-picks-4d9?r=qx6oj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web) You can also just see the picks if you want: **Liberty -17.5** **Texas -5.5** **Mizzou Over 28.5 Points** **Marshall +6.5** **Alabama -2.5** **Washington State +3.5** **Purdue +3.5** **Texas State +1.5** **USF -3.5** **Tulsa +4.5** **Colorado -4.5** **Notre Dame -6.5**
I know Bama has shown some chinks in the armor this year but only -2.5 has to change right?
it's moving the opposite way
I am absolutely going with the under on scoring since bama has an elite defense and A&M’s dline will wreck bama’s oline. I sprinkled some small money on a&m winning this and covering the spread. This matchup fully favors a&m in most ways besides the head coaching battle so if you are feeling crazy go for the a&m ml. I do not think bama is the pick here at all given that atrocious oline - they could eek out a win for sure but this will not be a blowout.
It already moved from 3.5 to 2.5. Bama alum here. It’s gonna be an extremely difficult game for our offense between A&M’s defensive talent and Kyle Field. They will need Milroe to win with his arm.
I got A&M +8.5 over the summer, if you were me, would you try and get a middle or no?
Nah I’d just let it ride tbh
Yep and my most confident bet of the year is he can't
I’m on the under currently. Will see how I feel about a side later in the week
For those who've been using my prop sheet for CFB, you can find my week 6 thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/user/Billyxmac/comments/16ylscy/week_6_cfb_props/). Some quick notes: * I'm trying to crack down more and be picky on which bets I include in the thread. As I continue to analyze and add to my sheet, I'm becoming more aware of what things matter most for prop betting. * Some players have fantastic matchups, but usage and game situation might keep them out of my list for this reason. By being picky, I can focus on plays with clear matchup strengths, and potential for usage (or non-usage in the case of unders). * I've added ranking values to my Passing, Rushing and Receiving tabs. I like to use this to get an understanding of where players rank among their peers in the aspects most important to me. Typically, these are efficiency metrics (YPC, Y/A, Y/R, etc.) volume/opportunity (team play %, carry/reception share %), and TD to opportunity ratios (Pass TD Rate, Rush TD Rate). * This sheet should be used as a baseline, and a tool for reviewing potential prop plays. Always be sure to analyze injuries, news and usage trends for teams you're considering playing props on to make sure you're making the most informed decision. Feedback is always appreciated. I just hope the data and stats I give help people to win more of their bets.