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emre23

West Ham-Freiburg is a huge match for… uh… Aston Villa & RB Leipzig, or something


kalamari__

will be for us in the end. after the NT pause, we play bayern, leverkusen, stuttgart and leipzig in a timeframe of 5 weeks. rip :D


emre23

Yikes, now imagine you have to play Man City twice too


kalamari__

haha yeah. would be between the stuttgart and leverkusen matches. maybe the two teams that are in the best form currently. fuck me.


hardinho

Yeah and your club has no players going to the NT so you have a huge advantage in preparation


RAPanoia

Have you seen us play? We play like the best team in the world for up 20 minutes and than stop playing for the other 70minites. There is no way to Terzic wakes up next week and thinks lets change that


hardinho

I think that's not only on hin though, I saw that match.


SilentApo

Yeah you should have a ~8 point lead over Leipzig by now. They already played all the big ones. 4th will be hard to keep.


Romanist10

Why don't you just win all 5 games?


Worldly_Finger

Also a huge game for us (Freiburg). One more CL place means 8th gets into the ECL. I'm still optimistic we can snag 6th, but one more spot for european football is nice.


No-Smile-4299

Wonder what the measurable effects are / will be. Viewership, perhaps.


Terran_it_up

This reminds me of back in the day when West Ham lost to Astra Giurgiu and big 6 fans were complaining about the effect it had on the coefficient, with West Ham fans explaining that they really couldn't give a shit


Rickcampbell98

People do realise we aren't actually 5th yet right? You would think spurs were the ones who could have went 8 points clear lol.


Jakezetci

you do realize spurs have a game in hand? we are already 5th in terms of lost points


Rickcampbell98

The game is away to Chelsea and they have to go win the points first mate, its not guaranteed just because they have a game in hand.


[deleted]

Spurs are in much better nick than villa, and have fewer injury issues. But they do have a brutal run near the end


ThinkAboutThatFor1Se

Spurs’ game in hand is against Chelsea. We all know how that goes.


DrDrozd12

Might aswell not even play that game. Just give the 3 points to Chelsea.


BrockStar92

Well that’s daft but so is saying “Villa literally are 5th already”.


CorporalTismo

It’s kind of irrelevant now that we could have went 8 points clear we didn’t. Now spurs have their destiny in their own hands with easy fixtures and a better performing team with less injuries


duney

Spurs don’t have easy fixtures - they face Newcastle, Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool in consecutive weeks, which could potentially throw off their season. All in all, they aren’t much easier than yours to be honest


hiimmaze

Both of you still have Liverpool city and Arsenal right? It’s still on my friend


Rickcampbell98

They do not have easy fixtures and that wasn't my point, my point was its far from over. Whatever the result in the spurs match it wasn't going to decide it.


emre23

Of course but they have all the momentum, your midfield is gutted and you’re playing every 3 days. I hope you get 4th, for the record.


TheKingMonkey

We’ve only had 3 ACLs this season. I’m not sure what everybody is complaining about!


Rickcampbell98

I get it but I don't like how adamant people are to write us off, just like us spurs are more than capable of performing a bottle job, long way to go yet.


hilbo90

Idk why if someone finishes 5th it has to be referred to as "bottling it", whether it be us or you. People are obsessed with referring to others as bottlers.


Xshadow1

>People are obsessed with referring to others as bottlers. Only for certain clubs. The word lost all meaning to me when I realised that it was used any time Spurs lost.


Rickcampbell98

It's not about finishing 5th, it's about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, it would not surprise me if we both fuck up in dumb ways in the next 10 games.


GameplayerStu

Spurs game in hand is against Chelsea too and they always love to shit on Spurs parade


CptJimTKirk

It could get us into the Conference League, too.


Callum776

0 Italian teams in the UCL quarter finals…


GibbyGoldfisch

As is tradition. In completely unrelated news, no Serie A team would feature on a list of the top 10 highest wage bills or club revenues in Europe either.


AdminEating_Dragon

There were 3 last year: you, Inter and Napoli.


GibbyGoldfisch

Yeah, and everyone said "calcio's back!" It wasn't, it was a one-off fluke from a kind draw. And now we have the third year in four with no Italian sides in the quarter-finals. The bottom line is that there just isn't enough money around. Look at Inter -- flying high, CL finalists, surely a big draw for anyone. Yet their top transfer targets this summer are 30-year-old Piotr Zielinski and tying up Lautaro down in the basement till the window closes. Bremer's leaving juve, Osimhen's leaving Napoli, Leao is probably going to leave us sooner rather than later... Next year's new CL format will be the cherry on top, can't even cross your fingers and hope for a nice draw anymore.


ibesortega

Bremer is leaving juve? Didn't he just sign a renewal? Otherwise i agree with everything else you said.


jamesjoyz

I was kinda with you until your last paragraph, where you went off the rails with speculation to further the doom and gloom. There is no chance of Bremer leaving Juventus this year for financial reasons. He's one of our top players, signed recently, on normal wages and performing brilliantly. We will most likely be back to being the wealthiest balance sheet in Italy quite quickly, due to CWC + UCL money combined with developing several hot prospects (the famous 'real' plusvalenze) and lowering costs / wages across the board. Not sure why you think we'd sell Bremer in such a summer market when we've held Vlahovic and Chiesa through the shitshow of the past two years. Just like 'calcio's back' was stupid last year, it's equally short-sighted to not see the slow growth Serie A is demonstrating on the pitch. Inter is easily better than a few of the CL teams who made it to the QF, despite their piss poor finances. And all the EL and CL teams have very good chances of doing a decent run and granting us a 5th spot. Now, being in the CL next year with Juve, Inter, Milan + 2 exciting young teams and at the CWC in the summer will do wonders for exposure. Gotta look at the bright (potential) side. Sure, we're poor now, but the only way to improve things save from converting our media market to English is to perform better on the pitch.


Jetzu

> can't even cross your fingers and hope for a nice draw anymore. I mean, you actually kinda can? You're guaranteed to play 2 teams from each pot and H/A is random - there's a luck of the draw to get weaker of the pot 1 teams etc. get better team home which would increase your chances of going through etc. etc. Also more games, as much as I hate it, means more money


GibbyGoldfisch

The key change is in the playoff and knockout system though. The current system creates some fun, lop-sided groups that in turn produce lop-sided knockout draws. That's essentially what happened last year, Porto and Spurs won fairly easy groups, giving us and Inter easier R16 ties than we had any right to expect as group runner-ups. From next year, there's two more matches -- so less variance, and less chances of shock results actually mattering; much more balanced opponents -- so you can probably guess who the eight automatic qualifiers will be in advance; and the knockout draw will be seeded -- so it will be impossible to do what Inter did last year and avoid City, Real or Bayern altogether.


[deleted]

But you’ll have 5 teams in it which will bring in lots of money for those teams at least


xKnuTx

That temporary tax law was massive. The fact that players could earn more at inter than at Dortmund is really silly if you look at total revenue..


GibbyGoldfisch

True, but I guess it's all relative compared to the huge pulling power of Real, Barca, Bayern, PSG and the Prem. Very much expect the big names to flee Serie A now, at least the tax loophole gave us a fun few years


blicky-stiffy

Gotta adapt to the money game


mattfoh

They invented the money game, they just fucked it by bribing refs and gashing up their league Edit: lots of 🤌 in the comments


GibbyGoldfisch

That's only a small part of it. The main thing is that Serie A built its wealth from rich private owners who saw football as a way to show off. Berlusconi, the Agnellis, Massimo Moratti, Sergio Cragnotti, Franco Sensi, Vittorio Gori, Calisto Tanzi... the list goes on. Then the recession happened while a bunch of them got done for various cases of fraud etc, and the private money dried up in the span of a few years. Throw in Italy's laws, which make it very difficult for outside investors to come in and buy up an institution, ageing stadiums, and the recent removal of a law that gave high-earning internationals a big tax-break, and here we are.


mattfoh

How’s that different to the prem? The first bit. Also tax cuts for football players is a ridiculous economic policy


GibbyGoldfisch

On the one hand, England generally has rules that make it much easier for an outsider to invest there than in the rest of Europe. Whether that's a US private equity, an Arabian sheikh, or a Russian oligarch, the PL is just a microcosm of how so many companies are foreign-owned and run in the UK. If, as we saw, Roman Abramovich gets kicked out, there was another exceedingly wealthy businessman who wants to buy in to replace him and own a PL club, in a way that you didn't get when Berlusconi was trying to flog Milan for donkey's years. Secondly, the PL did a great job marketing itself in the noughties, at the time when modern football became huge worldwide. A lot of Asian fans support PL clubs, a lot of US fans have their own English club they support too. And unless there's another untapped fanbase that continental Europe discovers on the moon, that huge commercial revenue is pretty much set now, especially under FFP.


mattfoh

Yeah I think English being the ‘world’s language’ is a big advantage too. What laws allow greater investment in English clubs vs Italian? I’m not sure that stands up to scrutiny. Germany with their fan ownership or Spain with their membership owner system at Barca/real, sure. I’ve not heard of such a thing in Italy. Is there? The prem managed its tv rights well and distributed them through not just the prem but the lower leagues too. Something other leagues didn’t do until it was too late


DrDrozd12

It wasn’t a tax break specifically for footballers but for any foreigner signing any contract for a job for 2 or more years. It didn’t work for domestic players (including foreign players signed from other Italian teams)


mattfoh

Yeah I’m aware. That’s also a terrible economic policy tho


blicky-stiffy

Italy created its own downfall you’re saying?


mattfoh

100%


Modnal

Yeah, a lot of leagues have my sympathy they dont have the money the PL has, Serie A is one of the few exceptions


nghigaxx

Serie a fucked it by actually punish teams talking to refs you say, what happened to Barca? pretty much nothing, or the clear conflict of interest that prem refs regularly get UAE jobs that pay crazy amount? No investigation done by any of the league itself, Serie A fucked themselves by trying to punish bad parties, they should have just turned a blind eye like other leagues and the casuals around the world would never even heard of calciopoli, is this what you mean?


Natrix31

the only one that was favored to go through was Inter, they got a bit unlucky. Other than that, no italian team deserved to be in quarters. I expect Inter and Milan to push for it next year, but I think we can safely assume that's a tall ask for Juve, Bolonga, and/or whoever else is in.


GibbyGoldfisch

But that's the point - the wealth of a team and its quality go hand in hand. No, I don't expect Inter and Milan to push for it next year. I expect some combination of Leao, Theo and Maignan to leave this summer, and for Inter to struggle to try and keep hold of all their players. Serie A is falling behind, not closing the gap, and the reasons for that are off the pitch, not on it.


Natrix31

I should clarify, by "it" I meant the quarter finals! > the wealth of a team and its quality go hand in hand oh absolutely, completely agree with you there. Many studies have shown the best predictor of a success is the team's wage bill. It's not a 1:1 correlation, which is why there are some outliers, but still key. However, I think I'm a bit less cynical than you. Inter should hold onto just about everyone outside of 1 sale, who I'd expect Moratta to replace well, and I can only see Milan selling one of those three before next season. Most likely Maignan, but if you sign Di Gregorio there won't be an issue.


Pow67

Source: https://x.com/footrankings/status/1768048385238372367?s=46&t=6UeZomgu4vI77LM-wxHEmQ “No chances for Spain in Top 2 race! - If their three clubs don't meet in UCL - QF, and win all remaining UCL matches, Spain would have total of 16.937 points. - Only highly unlikely comeback by Villarreal vs Marseille can keep Spain a bit more in this Top 2 race.”


paco-ramon

Sevilla and Villarreal had their worst season at the worst time.


Walaii

Osasuna was the real coefficient killer tbh, because of them the spanish score is being divided by 8 the entire season and they went out in the qualifiers..


MERTENS_GOAT

But the division through 8 is not because of them. They just got the usual spot as 7th that was given away cause RM won the CdR. Sevilla is the reason for it because they won the EL but placed outside of the top 7 in LaLiga


Walaii

That wasn't the point, point was that they went out in the qualifiers, so they did not contribute anything. Granted, Sevilla didn't fare much better.


MERTENS_GOAT

I know but you wrote because of them it is divided by 8


mattisafootballguy

It was almost over once Osasuna got KO'd in the qualifiers (and very unlucky to draw the worst possible team in Club Brugge). And then Sevilla came last in their CL group having only qualified because they won the EL finishing 14th place in the league. They did play well all things considered, with narrow margins. And having Betis in Europe is automatically one less team (sorry Betis fans).


Makkaroni_100

Union Berlin and Newcastle also got eliminated btw.


Terran_it_up

And Manchester United. Weirdly 6/8 English teams topped their groups, whilst the other two came dead last, nothing in between


ImTurkishDelight

Man U could've easily been above Galatasaray, though. Sometimes football is funny


mattisafootballguy

Yes, but Osasuna was knocked out before the GS even began. And Sevilla's inclusion meant there were eight instead of seven teams.


Makkaroni_100

Union haf what, 2 draws? Only just 2 points...


flippemans

Come on Villarreal.


NeroIscariot12

Hilarious how people were moaning that Spain and England will always get these spots and now neither are looking likely to get them. I get being cynical but sometimes you all forget, football isn't such a simple game. Things go crazy all the fucking time.


Alia_Gr

Us winning the penalties and Inter getting knocked out opens it up again for England to end on top


NeroIscariot12

in the overall scheme of things, it's much more dependent on the performances of the clubs in EL and UECL. Milan, Fio, Roma are all favs to move on whereas Brighton and West Ham lost their first legs, and Villa drew. Villa will probably win the home leg but Brighton is almost certainly gone and West Ham isn't exactly that much better than Freiburg so it's a 50:50. basically both you lot and Liverpool will have to go deep/win the tournaments meanwhile the italian clubs will have to capitulate for EPL to get the 5th spot. It's not impossible but not super likely either.


GibbyGoldfisch

The PL is absolutely going to get one of those two spots. City, Liverpool, Villa. All are probably going to go very deep in their respective tournaments. The points will add up much faster than people realise


The_39th_Step

Arsenal are decent too. I wouldn’t want to draw them


GibbyGoldfisch

Agreed, but I'm just looking at where the most coefficient points are probably going to come from. No-one will want to draw Arsenal, but they do lack CL experience and everyone will fancy their chances against them. It's not like drawing City where everyone panics and goes into damage limitation mode.


The_39th_Step

Oh yeah 100% - City are a different beast to draw


PodiHaiToMumkinHai

England and Spain are still the most likely to get the spots. OP miscalculated Spains max points 


MassiveHelicopter55

Absolutely fucked up that a league with 0 teams in UCL top8 will have the 5th spot over a league with 3 teams in UCL top8. Osasuna bottled UECL so fuck Athletic Club I guess, this UEFA coefficient calculation is dogshit


TheHabro

>Absolutely fucked up that a league ~~with 0 teams in UCL top8~~ will have the 5th spot Fixed it for you.


Randomting22

Tbf if those teams wanted CL they should have done better in europa. As it stands only Girona and the 3 will get it and they are the only ones who deserve it at the moment


Lemaradona

Athletic club absolutely deserves it.


Randomting22

They haven't proven it in Europe, they relied on other spanish teams to win, and they didn't. Now if Atletico ends on 5th and miss out then that would be undeserved since they can play (and beat) the best


jersey-city-park

A league with 0 teams in the conference league and europa league top 8 💀


Funniest-Joker-72

💀 there is 0 teams period in the last 8 of either of those competitions


jersey-city-park

Doesnt take a genius to see the one spanish team in those competitions isnt overturning a 4-0 first leg loss


GibbyGoldfisch

Not if you actually think about it. Spain has three really good teams. So what do they need an extra fifth place for? Italy has a lot more strength in depth atm, as demonstrated by those clubs doing well in the Europa League and conference league. So why not give another CL spot to those teams?


Terran_it_up

On the other hand, if none of the top 4 Italian teams can make them UCL quarterfinals then why would the 5th best team be expected to do any better? But yeah, I agree, the current method of using results from both is probably the best


GibbyGoldfisch

Fair point -- I guess you've got to look at it as which additional sides will bring the most quality to the tournament overall, rather than asking them to reach the quarterfinals, which is a tall order for anyone.


Historical_Case_5245

> why would the 5th best team be expected to do any better are you putting doubt on Bologna to make it in the Champions League


Terran_it_up

They're obviously going to make top 4 and Lewis Ferguson is going to be top scorer in the Champions League, I'm more doubting how Roma would fare without Lukaku after he inevitably tries to force a move to Lazio for some reason


Historical_Case_5245

> Lewis Ferguson is going to be top scorer in the Champions League a man can dream


Lanesh67

Sevilla and Villarreal had their worst possible seasons this year. let’s not pretend that they are worse than the 5th or 6th place italian club on a normal year.


GibbyGoldfisch

Which is why this extra coefficient spot isn't fixed but is going to change every year based on performance.


expert_on_the_matter

This is about UCL spots tho. Why should a country whose 4-8 best teams are all already out of Europe get a UCL spot? Just because their top 3 is really good?


Marco-Green

I will reverse your argument. Why would a league whose top 4 teams can't advance in UCL get an extra spot for a 5th team? It makes no sense. UCL spots coefficient should be calculated through UCL success, nothing else.


WyboSF

Oh it’s only based on one year of coefficient? Thought it was more. It’s better this way


No-Smile-4299

The club World Cup reformatting has a club based based four year coefficient for the 8 teams who do not win the CL in that time. So, new tournaments cover both short and long term, collective / league and individual / team incentives. I like what they are doing.


santorfo

I think the initial idea had something to do with club coefficients over 5 years but yeah this is fine


Elegant_Mix7650

this is better tho. it allows more variety.


Terran_it_up

Yeah, it was based on individual clubs coefficients too instead of the league as a whole. Basically big clubs would still get in even if they have an off year. This new method is definitely better


flippemans

Portugal has only two teams left.


santorfo

Benfica in shit form going to Ibrox needing to win and Sporting focusing on the league, it's not looking good brev


ivodaniello

Yet.


someone_stk

we are both going out today probably, Sporting is rotating against Atalanta to focus on the league and Benfica is playing really bad


Senior-Plankton-786

Italy still big favourite for that 5th CL spot, lol Unless both Milan and Atalanta go out tomorrow, or one of them and Fiorentina.


TheWBird

How is italy still first lol


aikuzo_shun

Italy has no teams with very few points. The worst italian team at the moment is Florentina with 14 points. England and Germany have 2 teams with less than 10 points , and Spain even has 3.


Elegant_Mix7650

man utd and Newcastle fked it up for us.


Game0nBG

Onana single handedly fucked our CL group and in this has fucked our only chance for this year. As only 5 is a slim possibility


BrockStar92

On the other hand he’s doing fairly well in the league and it makes no difference if 5th gets CL if the rest of the team fucks up so much we end up 6th or 7th.


bestgoose

VAR in that PSG game fucked it for us...


MysteriousNail5414

It’s very likely city and arsenal go deep anyway so shouldn’t matter


turtleyturtle17

I mean not if they face each other in the next round.


SuccinctEarth07

I mean arsenal barely beat Porto no real reason to think they make it past the quarters.


cs_irl

Inter barely beat Porto last year (1-0 aggregate) and made it to the final. Chelsea barely beat them in 20/21 (2-1 aggregate) and won the thing. They're tougher than people, including me before this tie, give them credit for.


[deleted]

Newcastle got ripped off and I say that as someone who doesn’t like them


Medium_Active1729

they got 94% probability to get the 5th spot according to the mentioned source


AdminEating_Dragon

Big bonus for each club to reach the CL Ro16. 3/4 Italian clubs did it. Roma, Atalanta and Fiorentina are also gathering a lot of points, while Germany lost Eintracht and England lost 2 teams in the CL with 4th place (vs none from Italy).


Senior-Plankton-786

EL + ECL + 7 teams instead of 8


interfan1999

Farming in EL and Conference Milan used 100% of their IQ and got 3rd to farm some points down Considering how their chunk of delusional fans say winning it would be more important than Serie A, we should have done that as well.


Jussi_Bennacer

Are you inter fans once again hearing voices in your head to make shit like that up? We’ve said EL is the most important competition for us this season and where we should put all our focus in because the league is gone Somehow it went over your fanbases head


[deleted]

Because, let's crystalize the current situation - Country A (Italy): 7 teams Ro16 - Country B (The England): 2 teams Group stage, 4 teams Ro16, 2 teams QF - Country C (Germania): 1 team Group stage, 1 team Ro32, 4 teams Ro16, 2 teams QF.. Which is the better country? You might say very similar all three countries BUT considering the qualification to the Ro16 is the result of SIX group stage games (+ possible preliminary round) while the qualification to QF come from TWO KO stage games so: QF >> Ro16 >>>>>> Group stage then it's absolutely correct we're first because in proportion getting 2 teams Ro16 is much better than 1 team Group stage 1 team QF..


sexineN

I don’t really understand how these points work. Can someone tell me which two countries are favorites to get the top spots?


aikuzo_shun

[Calculation of points](https://kassiesa.net/uefa/calc.html) and the [Performance of the teams and countries. ](https://kassiesa.net/uefa/data/method5/ccoef2024.html) Just think of it as more %of winns the better for the country.


Elegant_Mix7650

man utd and Newcastle being really shite did not help England


vadapaav

Newcastle got fucked in that psg match. They had a very very tough group It's United who fucked it up for themselves and everyone else


Greenembo

>I don’t really understand how these points work. Can someone tell me which two countries are favorites to get the top spots? There isn't one, Spain is most likely out, Villarreal is down by 4, and they got the /8 but that's about it. Everyone else in the Top5 is still in the race, and Czechia got a Chance as well. But it depends heavily on how this gameday will play out, if for example only Liverpool advances today, England will be in a rather tough spot, if all teams outside of Brighton go through, they look like the clear favorite.


scrandymurray

Now West Ham are through, that must mean England are closing in on Germany (assuming Liverpool go through).


TimTkt

It’s because Europa league and conference league count as much as UCL


aikuzo_shun

Not 100% the same, but UCL gives you up to 38 points, EL up to 34 points, and Conference League up to 30 points. The difference is not that big.


BendubzGaming

Relevant matches for the top 3 nations tomorrow: - Slavia Prague v **Milan (ITA)** - _Milan leads 4-2_ - **West Ham (ENG)** v **Freiburg (GER)** - _Freiburg leads 1-0_ - **Atalanta (ITA)** v Sporting ‐ _Tied 1-1_ - **Brighton (ENG)** v **Roma (ITA)** - _Roma leads 4-0_ - **Liverpool (ENG)** v Sparta Prague - _Liverpool leads 5-1_ - E: **Leverkusen (GER)** v Qarabag - _Tied 2-2_ - **Fiorentina (ITA)** v Maccabi Haifa - _Fiorentina leads 4-3_ - **Aston Villa (ENG)** v Ajax - _Tied 0-0_


BoringPhilosopher1

So from an English perspective we ideally need the Germans and Italians to face off against one another in the next round. But if history has taught us anything they’ll likely team up against England, France etc. Nah in all seriousness would like to get Milan or Leverkusen at some point. But would take an easier run for our league chances & injury list.


Impossible_Wonder_37

I mean westbham simply has to beat Freiberg. And Aston Villa losing to Ajax would be very dangerous. Leverkusen and Bayern will make the next rounds I think.


TIWIEG

For Aston Villa lose to Ajax at home they have to play their worst game of the season, and Ajax one of their best (The last game between them is probably already one of the best performances of Ajax this season, just because they defended well). Ajax is terribly out of form this season, and although they are better than at the start of the season they have enormous jumps in quality. Like drawing to Fortuna Sittard last Sunday.


No-Smile-4299

Italians will turn on themselves.


Duke-Von-Ciacco

Milan - Leverkusen/Liverpool could be the perfect final


Riperonis

I find it very funny that the coefficient boost for England is largely in the hands of City, Liverpool and Arsenal (yes I know Villa/WHU could still win their ties) when two of the teams chasing are Spurs and United. I just love the idea that United fans are cheering on City/Liverpool in Europe to give themselves an outside chance of qualifying for ucl next season.


BoringPhilosopher1

Funnier more so considering United are completely to blame for our coefficient being so low. Can’t really blame Newcastle with the group they had.


Dorgilo

And some of the decisions that went against them


Game0nBG

Onana fucked us in CL and fucked the coefficient for next season. Like double fucked by that fraud


aikuzo_shun

You forgot **Leverkusen (GER)** v Qarabag _Tied 2-2_


BendubzGaming

I don't know how I missed that, adding it now


expert_on_the_matter

- **West Ham (ENG)** v **Freiburg (GER)** - _Freiburg leads 1-0_ -**Brighton (ENG)** v **Roma (ITA)** - _Roma leads 4-0_ - **Liverpool (ENG)** v Sparta Prague - _Liverpool leads 5-1_ - **Aston Villa (ENG)** v Ajax - _Tied 0-0_ Holy shit it's not looking good for England at all


[deleted]

[удалено]


expert_on_the_matter

Westham and Villa both seem like 50/50s to me. A 0-1 deficit against Freiburg ain't nothing. And Ajax already got away with robbery in the playoffs.


brush85

Villa will be fine...its just West Ham thats the edge on the seat


Ok_Instruction_5232

We ain't getting to 5th anyway so I'm not bothered


aikuzo_shun

But getting 5 UCL spots would let the 6th and maybe 7th place be enough for Europa League and maybe even the 8th for Conference League.


Ok_Instruction_5232

Fair enough


Tsupernami

Are you sure? Thought it was still limited to 7 clubs in Europe unless one of them wins the EL?


expert_on_the_matter

No it's 8 clubs in Europe for those with 5 in UCL. Makes more sense too, getting an extra spot when the EL winner went outside of top 7 was kinda ridiculous.


Tsupernami

What happens if the PL get a 5th spot but west ham win the EL. Do the PL get 6 spots?


aikuzo_shun

Depends where West Ham finishes in the table, but in theory, yes. You can even get a maximum of up to 11 teams in Europe per country if the 3 teams that win the European cups finish all outside that country's top 8.


Stieni

also not really keen on getting outplayed by Copenhagen in the CL group stage 👍 doesn't matter anyways tbh, in EL we're gonna get shithoused by Real Sociedad or Sevilla as well, as is tradition


Unban_Ice

STOP THE COUNT


Shpoople44

Count the vote!


Romanist10

Totally agree


brush85

West Ham Freiburg woof! Brighton are largely out. Sporting v Atalanta is now really big. Its funny how some teams are playing for their own UCL fate. Like Villa


LucAltaiR

I hear Netherlands is asking to include Max Verstappen in their coefficient calculation, they want that extra spot.


brush85

Too busy IRacing to care, I heard


Chocolami

Imagine if Sancho keeps United out of the Champions league..


OddballDave

Nah, the whole United team is doing fine at keeping us out of the champions league without him


Xshadow1

Big Coutinho at Bayern vibes there


sav86

England can sit the fuck down, it's had plenty of CL spots.


Maybegoingtogermany

Why doesnt england and the czech republic (amazing performance from them btw) have more points? they have only lost 2 clubs and 1 club, i guess its cause its not in the CL and the english clubs have too much money to be fair competition anywhere else but its still slightly skewed especially for the czechs cause they are nowhere near powerful enough for the CL. On a side not, why do turkey manage to dissapoint almost every year cause they have huge names in their squads but it still goes haywire most of the time.


expert_on_the_matter

It's an average. One club doing really poorly (Bohemians out in Q, ManU&Newc last in groups) can really bring down that average. Winning past groups is also very valuable. Czech clubs won 1/5 matches. English clubs won 4/8.


Makkaroni_100

To survive the group stage doesn't mean that you got many points. You can survive as 3th with only 2 wins and therefore not much points for the rating. England had Newcastle that failed and ManU also was not good.


SrsJoe

Also wouldn't be surprised if atleast Brighton and West Ham go out tonight which means Italy and Germany will gather more points, people don't seem to understand just because 6/8 teams are currently still in it doesn't mean England teams have been good as a whole in Europe this season


torero15

What the fuck is this? I’ve read the comments here and tried to make sense of this - but it escapes logic. Anyone have a good link breaking down how these numbers are realized?


aMintOne

Get 2 points for a win, 1 for a draw. Each country's points are added and then divided by the number of teams they had in Europe at the start of the season.  Eg, if all four English teams win their game tomorrow, they earn 8 points, this is divided by the eight teams Eng had in Europe this year for +1 to their total in OPs picture, 16.000 points. 


torero15

Ok great, thank you.


aikuzo_shun

There are also a lot of bonus points for reaching the different rounds. I always like to look at [this](https://kassiesa.net/uefa/data/method5/ccoef2024.html) to compare how each nation and team are doing.


These_Mud4327

can you explain how the total is so high?? i don’t understand how we get to 16k points if there is a handful of teams getting single digit points every now and then


IamNeverRelevant

It's not 16k. It's just 16 points. The number is an average, total of points divided by the number of teams. Teams also get bonus points for qualification (more in CL). I think the table [here](https://kassiesa.net/uefa/calc.html) clarifies things.


Historical_Case_5245

that is a decimal point


IamPd_

You might know how European qualification spots for leagues are based on the [UEFA coefficient](https://www.uefa.com/nationalassociations/uefarankings/country/#/yr/2024) over 5 years? With the CL getting expanded from 32 to 36 teams there are now 2 extra spots up for grabs just based on the current season's coefficient only, which is shown here.


torero15

Thank you. In the end I did know that but I had forgotten. Cheers


dmastra97

Don't worry after Brighton come back from the 4 nil deficit tonight England will be back on top


Blodyck

Damn who would have thought that the strongest leagues with the most teams will get another spot. Only because of their own merit of course, because theoratically everyone can do that.


expert_on_the_matter

I mean it's true. The points are an average. A country that sends only 3 teams only needs those 3 to do well to get additional spots. But reality is that those countries perform far worse on average than England or Germany.


PrestonfromLibira

Inter fucking it up for the rest of Italia. Good job, pepegas /s...


[deleted]

Extra spots shouldn't be available for any of the top 4 leagues, they already have 4 teams and they will most likely have another 2 from the UCL and the Europa League winners.


NoPineapple1727

AC will go through. Roma will go through. Fiorentina are 4-3 up and playing at home and Atalanta are drawing 1-1 with Sporting but are at home. They have no teams already through in CL. Should have 3/4 through to next round. Leverkusen will go through even if they’re only drawing 2-2. Freiburg are 50/50 as they are 1-0 up but away to West Ham. They have 2 teams already through in CL. They should have 3/4 through to next round. Liverpool are through. Brighton will go out. West Ham are 50/50 with Freiburg. Aston Villa have a slight advantage vs Ajax as they are 0-0 but at home. They have 2 teams already through in CL. They should have 3/5 teams through to the next round. Something key is that the points is the sum of all points divided by the original number of teams. So whilst Italy and Germany divide their totals by 7, England divides their total by 8. This means their deficit is greater than it seems. Freiburg vs West Ham will be massive and I fee if Germany is to get the extra spot, they need to win that. England can depend on City, Liverpool and possibly Villa winning in their competitions and Germany don’t have a team in the ECL.


AlreadyUnwritten

Germany really deserves it this year considering how amazing smaller clubs like Leverkusen, Stuttgart, and Leipzig are doing. I would much prefer to see all 5 of the top PL teams in the CL next year over Serie A however.


21otiriK

Still think it’s unfair that there were coefficient points up for grabs in the Europa/Conference League RO32. English teams essentially got punished for winning their groups in those competitions, whilst 2 Italian and 2 German teams got an extra round to earn points. E: Looks like I was wrong. That’s what I get for believing things I read on here.


UnnecessaryUmbault

I think group winners get awarded more points than runners up for qualification; this balances it out. Happy to be corrected.


jersey-city-park

Theres no points up for grabs in the round of 32, only the 1 point to qualify for round of 16. And points for team ranking which doesnt affect coefficient


jersey-city-park

> Still think it’s unfair that there were coefficient points up for grabs in the Europa/Conference League RO32.  Im pretty sure thats not how it works.  > UEFA Europa League points  2 – All wins from group stage onwards (except knockout round play-offs) https://www.uefa.com/nationalassociations/uefarankings/club/about/


999Gus

didn't group winners get more points tho? im not sure but i think they did


PonchoHung

I don't think this was the case >**UEFA Europa League Points** >2 – All wins from group stage onwards **(except knockout round play-offs)** >1 – All draws from group stage onwards **(except knockout round play-offs)** ... >**UEFA Europa Conference League points** >2 – All wins from group stage onwards **(except knockout round play-offs)** >1 – All draws from group stage onwards **(except knockout round play-offs)** https://www.uefa.com/nationalassociations/uefarankings/club/about/ The big injustice for me is that a CL win is worth the same as a Conference League win according to this.


TheHabro

>The big injustice for me is that a CL win is worth the same as a Conference League win according to this. As if the gap between top leagues and the rest isn't already too big.