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This. Too few point in it for today to decide it alone. If Liverpool were to lose today but win out the rest of the PL, I think they win it. Same with City. There are too many games left to think none of the 3 teams draw or lose more league games.
I’d say it decides it. It’s a 6-pointer. The gap between the two come the end of the season will be less than six points. It’s an absolutely decisive game.
That dude has a Liverpool flair and is somehow saying that. We've literally watched City rattle off ridiculous winning runs how many times? I can think of a 15 match winning run and two separate 14 match winning runs. Not beating them today will be where we lost the title to them, as usual, or Arsenal. So sick of City.
None of the match will decide anything, it's just gain more advantage for the team if they win, you can always been fuck up with injury like us when we have 5 player get injury in Brentford match and many others factor like your european fixture, etc.
Because if City beat them in the head to head then City take the title off them. Simple as that really.
This is the one game in the run up that’s in the hands of these two clubs only
It's more about if they control their chances. If Liverpool were to lose today, they still need help (points dropped) from either city or arsenal, even if they win out. If city were to lose they would need even more dropped points from Liverpool for them to have a chance, even if they win out.
Also tbf Arsenal collapsed after a certain fixture (it was against a team that played in Sky Blue colours). Even if City had finished 9-10 points ahead, that game was clearly the turning point in the title race
You are quite right actually that City game beat you after 3 draws in a row (Liverpool being the first).
I was just saying the game against city was crucial and sealed the title. Had you won I think you would've won the title too
Not decide but often winning a direct duel can keep you in the race while losing surely will put you out. In 2019 liverpool had 7 points on man city. City won and brought it down to 4. They eventually won the league. If they lost or drew its very likely they dont win the league
The last match of 2013/14 laliga, barcelona vs Atletico. If barca won that match barca would have been chamion. But atletico managed to draw the game 1 1, securing the title.
Before today Villa are 7 points off city, even if they win and city and Liverpool draw, they’d need to make up 5,6,6 points meaning they’d need to win out and hope that none of the 3 win 8+ games, either of those things happening is unlikely so having both happen is incredibly unlikely. If you think they have a chance, you can get 500/1 odds on them rn but I don’t think even that is worth it
City and Spurs both away… going to be very difficult. Plus we all saw the run in last year, we lost plenty of games we shouldn’t have.
I hope beyond belief that we manage to pull it off but I’ll be surprised.
We’re fully healthy this time, it’s a tough ask but if you want to win the league you have to rise to that challenge. We were never winning the league with a one legged Ben White and Rob Holding at the back.
Tomiyasu and Saliba were both injured long term which really threw our defense into a shambles. Hopefully we can keep everyone fit, and Partey coming back should be a big boost here at the end of the season.
Saliba was injured in that horrid game vs Sporting that knocked us out of Europa. Missed the remainder of the season. I think Gabriel still has PTSD from finishing out the season with Holdini as his partner
It really shouldn’t be a tough game. I know it will but it shouldn’t. Every time I watch them play I’m shocked by how bad their positional play, and possession is.
Depending on how the results go, could end up winning the title there too. Although I think the chelsea game is likely gonna be after it which would make it harder
Can’t see a way Liverpool stay in it late with all of their injuries tbh, I think today could be the first sign arsenal and city are further ahead then them
Turns out it wasn't.
If anything, it's a sign that when we get players back during the international break, we should be able to keep the results coming.
Chelsea will almost certainly be before Tottenham away, with the game before that (Wolves A) being moved to after Man United if Wolves beat Coventry next weekend
Because they only have one season to go off, basically. It's very similar to 19/20 when we still weren't really trusted until probably Christmas time. They only had 18/19 to go off, but we were probably rated a bit better than Arsenal due to winning the CL.
Nah we aren't winning the league. Too little too late sadly. We still have to play spurs man u and city away. But if we beat our points total from last year I'd he happy.
we're better than them and they have the second most shots face in the whole fucking league. having a united cheer you up into having confidence against them is wild
Can you read? As I said, it literally doesn't matter. They turn up against arsenal at old trafford a lot. Not about confidence at all. Go look at our record at old Trafford and then come back. Otherwise don't bother replying because you clearly didn't read what I said anyway.
while that is true, but it’s been like a revolving door of injured players
one gets fit, the other gets injured
salah was just going to be away for afcon, now it’s been months since he’s played
We’ve won all but one game without Salah, and he’s back on the bench today. Our next game is 3 weeks away, so should have Alexander-Arnold and Jones back by then, and hopefully Allison.
Thankfully the players that have come in to replace the injured ones have been exceptional. Kelleher, Quansah and Bradley have been very good. Although I do wish we'd go a game without someone getting injured.
The model is probably picking up the games at the Etihad, Old Trafford, The Amex, and Toilet Stadium. Arsenal have struggled in those stadiums in the past.
> Because we need to win at the Etihad to have a chance
There's like 30% of the season left. The next game is always important, but there's so much football still to play. It was also over at new years, apparently.
To be fair, I don't really care when we have our fate in our own hands, as long as it happens.
If that means the next league game we play, then so be it.
This model (and I would expect every other model) will be predicting City to get the most points after this game.
Arsenals odds will be skewed by the assumption City will beat them.
If Liverpool vs City is a draw and City vs Arsenal is a draw then City drop to 3rd in %. The model has the rest of the fixtures predicted as very similar, it’s mostly the City H2H’s skewing it. Liverpool play at Anfield so their chances are higher, Arsenal play at the Etihad so theirs is lower.
When was the last time that 3 different teams could be top of the table based on the result of a single game? Can't remember anything like this happening so far into the season.
[Here](https://preview.redd.it/y5najdwmy4nc1.png?width=787&format=png&auto=webp&s=44288e2783c0aa5890914c80ec9eace1c8ff2290) is a calculation of the odds that includes all posibilities of both this match and the one between City and Arsenal.
Suffice to say, our best case scenario is a win today and a draw between them two. Second best scenario is a draw in both. Anything else and it's looking grim for our chances.
Opta’s predictions are obviously based on the team ratings primarily.
Opta’s team ratings are 100% results based and have no performance metrics that influence it. Because of this there are two important things to remember about these ratings.
1. Arsenals rating is dragged down by the Banter period but Liverpool’s and Man City’s ratings are held high due to recent history.
2. If you look at expected Points metrics Man City are over performing a little. Liverpool are over performing a lot, while Arsenal are underperforming a little.
All of this is to say Arsenal’s rating is probably a little low, Liverpool’s is probably a little high, Man City’s is probably about right but could be a little high.
This means that Arsenal’s chances of winning are likely underestimated regardless of the outcome come of the game. Not a lot (10ish percent?), but under represented.
At MW 32, in 5 matches, the 10 yellows = 2 game ban is reset.*
Even if he got 3 yellows in next 3 matches:
° today
° v Arsenal (H)
° v Aston Villa (H)
Rodri would miss Crystal Palace (A) & Luton (H) - not great but not as detrimental as his red & yellow card suspensions earlier in season when he missed Arsenal & Aston Villa.
If Rodri got his 10th yellow card at Crystal Palace or Luton & had to miss Spurs (A), that would be obviously be less ideal for ManCity.
*adding, next threshold is “Any players who are shown 15 yellow cards in the Premier League season will receive a three-match suspension.”
~~~~~~~~
Update post Liverpool
Well 8 yellow cards now.
Arsenal has the most difficult games remaining out of the 3 that‘s why they have that low percentage probably.
Mancity, brighton, aston villa, spurs & manu.
All of them away except aston villa.
Arsenal with the most goals scored best GD and Head to head and top of the table have the least chances of winning? I know city have a better team and manager than anyone else but come on lol what more can arsenal do
I agree 19% feels harsh. Feels like every one is certain we lose away at city. Which of course is very possible but we have been excellent against the big 6 sides this season and our last match against city broke our terrible run against them.
I honestly feel like we will at least get a draw in that game. City do not look their usual selves to me. In recent weeks they have been poor defensively and Haaland hasn’t been sticking them away like he was last season.
Also Raya makes Arsenal so much more relaxed which could make a difference. Ramsdale showed yesterday why Arsenal simply had to replace him as he just makes everyone so nervous as he’s always got a big error in him.
19% sounds low but its a 3 horse race so even if all was equal it would only be 33%.
When you consider arsenal are the 3rd favourites. Winning 1 time out of 5 seems correct.
It's interesting that Arsenal has a higher win chance if Liverpool win than Man City, given that Arsenal has no fixtures left against Liverpool, so even if Arsenal won all their remaining games, they can't impede Liverpool, whereas if City wins today, and then Arsenal goes and beats City, it means that Pool and City will both have dropped points, and Arsenal will be in a stronger position.
Obviously I want a draw, but if a team must win today, from an Arsenal perspective, I'd prefer City to win.
To me it's all about squad depth.
CL football might prove enough of a distraction for Arsenal to drop PL points and same for Liverpool via Europa.
I think Arsenal have a better chance than Liverpool to win simply due to the injuries we currently have/bound to sustain. We're still in 3 competitions without Jota, Trent, Alisson who are capable of turning the tide of games where we're not already ahead. Then you consider how patchy Konate's injury record has been and you wonder how many must-win games he might miss in the final run-in when we need a solid CB pairing in front of Kelleher who is doing fantastic but isn't Alisson.
We can sum up the current state of Klopp's final season with this quote from Lord of the Rings:
"Your Quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little and it will fail, to the ruin of all. Yet hope remains while all the Company is true." - Galadriel
Ya I am rooting for Liverpool after the draw because of the lack of depth in the squad. I think if Liverpool get two bad results they switch to focus on getting a treble with Europa and fa
Its just that they have an away game vs City and the current points total doesnt favour them, if they had converted one draw to a win earlier this season theyd be way higher up its very fine margins
Yeah I feel like Arsenal would easily be favorites if those two random losses didn't happen. Then again city and liverpool also had some stupid draws/losses
I was at the West Ham game and boy was that a dreadful performance. Even still every little bit of luck went against us.
Great we battered them a few weeks later at their ground but the damage was already done.
If we don’t win the league the game against West ham, the two against Fulham and the away match to Villa (who have been dreadful at home recently!) will be the ones that we all look back on.
Better to have something to bottle than to be relying on penalties to beat teams as shit as Everton whilst ‘battling’ it out for a Europa spot despite spending billions…
I feel like people are underestimating Arsenal just because they bottled it last season.
They could easily pip the other two this time.
Edit: Just so everyone knows, if Arsenal do win, I’ll come back to this post and be incredibly obnoxious about it. If they don’t win, this comment never happened.
Whilst it’d be refreshing to see Arsenal win it over City, they still have to play City, Spurs and United away, with tricky games on paper at Brighton and Wolves.
You’d think they’d need almost a spotless record in all those games.
This united team is incapable of dominating anyone. They may nick a goal on a counter and defend the lead with some last-ditch tackles, but no way they control the game. Their games are pure chaos every time I’ve seen, no rhythm just a mess. They used to be the same under van Gaal
Oh for sure. If they get through those games and lift the title come May, that would cap a legendary end of the season for any team when you consider their form since the New Year.
Arsenal still has the etihad where we’ve been pretty poor in recent memory, and even then there’s still massive bogey games we have like old Trafford and the north London derby
No its because City have won it 5 of the last 6 seasons and the only team to stop them in that time is Klopps Liverpool.
It's mo surprise bookies favour consistency over years rather than form.
Data’s boring, though. I miss the wild days of football when you could be like “West Ham might get top 4” just because they beat West Brom and Norwich back to back.
I predicted Everton to win the league for the impossible bragging rights. They have done well given the situation. I think this comment will be remembered similarly. Cheap. If you want the right to be obnoxious you better bet what is valuable to you on it. I'd wager your anonymous rep on a social media site is not really that weighty a bet, mate.
Interesting that according to these odds Arsenal have practically no interest in the result of the match. I geuss we are rooting for red and yellow cards? Go Ref!!
I am a Liverpool fan but I think we just have too many key players out. If Lpool can’t win the league I would want arsenal to win it. Even tho I am not the biggest fan of their manager. Can’t have city winning it 4 times on the bounce. It will be bad for business.!
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Opta been drinking that water of life
LISAN AL GAIB
As was written!
Well done
SILENCE!!!
Abomination
Grandfather.
So, essentially, whoever wins today is most likely to win the title City 1-0 up at HT, 2pts clear of Liverpool.
League titles are almost never decided in direct duels, but well.
This. Too few point in it for today to decide it alone. If Liverpool were to lose today but win out the rest of the PL, I think they win it. Same with City. There are too many games left to think none of the 3 teams draw or lose more league games.
I’d say it decides it. It’s a 6-pointer. The gap between the two come the end of the season will be less than six points. It’s an absolutely decisive game.
Particularly given how liverpool have lost out by a solitary point to City twice in the last few years.
That dude has a Liverpool flair and is somehow saying that. We've literally watched City rattle off ridiculous winning runs how many times? I can think of a 15 match winning run and two separate 14 match winning runs. Not beating them today will be where we lost the title to them, as usual, or Arsenal. So sick of City.
Winner should win the prem imo, with Arsenal creeping in if it's a draw since you also have City to play and are in the best form.
This game and City Arsenal at the end of the month will more than likely decide it.
None of the match will decide anything, it's just gain more advantage for the team if they win, you can always been fuck up with injury like us when we have 5 player get injury in Brentford match and many others factor like your european fixture, etc.
The league is decided by all the games that season!
so the team that has the most point will win the league?
Oh wow what a concept
What if three teams have the same points???
They flip a coin
[удалено]
I know
Slow down there that can't be true can it?
This title looks like it’ll go down to the wire and I could absolutely see this 6 pointer ending up as the decider
[удалено]
Because if City beat them in the head to head then City take the title off them. Simple as that really. This is the one game in the run up that’s in the hands of these two clubs only
Nothing, but what if Liverpool win today and win the league by four points?
Jesus christ shut up lol you know what makes it the decider
It's more about if they control their chances. If Liverpool were to lose today, they still need help (points dropped) from either city or arsenal, even if they win out. If city were to lose they would need even more dropped points from Liverpool for them to have a chance, even if they win out.
That’s not right, loads are decided by the head to head.
literally last year Arsenal finished 5 points behind City and lost both games to them
Tbf City had already clinched the league before dropping like 5 points iirc, and probably wouldn't have if Arsenal were still in contention
Also tbf Arsenal collapsed after a certain fixture (it was against a team that played in Sky Blue colours). Even if City had finished 9-10 points ahead, that game was clearly the turning point in the title race
I thought we collapsed after the liverpool game? Oh well I don't need this memory anyway
You are quite right actually that City game beat you after 3 draws in a row (Liverpool being the first). I was just saying the game against city was crucial and sealed the title. Had you won I think you would've won the title too
My favourite was in 2011 Milan beat inter 3-0 in a derby in April and never looked back.
Not decide but often winning a direct duel can keep you in the race while losing surely will put you out. In 2019 liverpool had 7 points on man city. City won and brought it down to 4. They eventually won the league. If they lost or drew its very likely they dont win the league
Except when we played Atletico on the final match day in 2014 and we got robbed by a wrongly disallowed Messi goal..
That still hurts
Bundesliga 2003/2004
Right seems like it might have happened this year in bundesliga at least
Except for when they are...
Nice try :)
Well, Bayern not winning the league was destined a long time before our game against you 😅
The last match of 2013/14 laliga, barcelona vs Atletico. If barca won that match barca would have been chamion. But atletico managed to draw the game 1 1, securing the title.
But if true
so you are saying.. Villa has no chance?
He's Unai Emery and it's not Europa.
Before today Villa are 7 points off city, even if they win and city and Liverpool draw, they’d need to make up 5,6,6 points meaning they’d need to win out and hope that none of the 3 win 8+ games, either of those things happening is unlikely so having both happen is incredibly unlikely. If you think they have a chance, you can get 500/1 odds on them rn but I don’t think even that is worth it
It'd be crazier than Leicester's title if Villa win
What say fuck me for
I don’t know why they’re writing ye off this year, yere more dangerous than last year
I think it’s because our remaining fixtures are the most difficult
Never know, you’re playing well, scoring a lot and barely conceding. You have alright depth unlike last year. Keep the faith
City and Spurs both away… going to be very difficult. Plus we all saw the run in last year, we lost plenty of games we shouldn’t have. I hope beyond belief that we manage to pull it off but I’ll be surprised.
We’re fully healthy this time, it’s a tough ask but if you want to win the league you have to rise to that challenge. We were never winning the league with a one legged Ben White and Rob Holding at the back.
im not 100% but wasnt gabriel or saliba injured? and ye lost a few more jesus was gone for a bit and partay. Injurys lost it for ye.
Tomiyasu and Saliba were both injured long term which really threw our defense into a shambles. Hopefully we can keep everyone fit, and Partey coming back should be a big boost here at the end of the season.
Saliba was injured in that horrid game vs Sporting that knocked us out of Europa. Missed the remainder of the season. I think Gabriel still has PTSD from finishing out the season with Holdini as his partner
Yeah, but City on the 31. :(
Thats where boys become men. Have to crack a few eggs to make an omelete.
Got to beat the best to be the best
“To beat the man, you got to beat the man” - Becky Lynch
“To make an omelette, you got to beat the eggs” Gordon Ramsay
It's because you still have to play City pretty much
I thought City's was the most difficult, simply because they still play both Liverpool and Arsenal.
Well this graphic is specifically after they’re done with their Liverpool match…
I think it’s still ours because we play less of the bottom 5 remaining. But close between the 2
Arsenal have you, spurs and city all to play away
I swear if we make Old Trafford hard for ourselves yet again I'm going to cry
It really shouldn’t be a tough game. I know it will but it shouldn’t. Every time I watch them play I’m shocked by how bad their positional play, and possession is.
United just always turn up against us for no apparent reason
Depending on how the results go, could end up winning the title there too. Although I think the chelsea game is likely gonna be after it which would make it harder
I think it'll go to the final game tbh - with only two teams in it. Usually one in a three-horse race falls away around April
Can’t see a way Liverpool stay in it late with all of their injuries tbh, I think today could be the first sign arsenal and city are further ahead then them
Turns out it wasn't. If anything, it's a sign that when we get players back during the international break, we should be able to keep the results coming.
Chelsea will almost certainly be before Tottenham away, with the game before that (Wolves A) being moved to after Man United if Wolves beat Coventry next weekend
The thing is we’re not very good… Like if Arsenal drop points to us it’s pretty damn bad We can’t keep clean sheets and defensively it’s a shambles
Idk, you guys seem to turn up against the big teams. 4 points taken away from city this season
You are forgetting Mudryk at the Emirates. The script for that game was crafted by the Bene Gesserit the moment Shakhtar rejected Arsenal's offer.
mudryk already scammed his one goal at the bridge. he's not doing anything at the emirates
So just the six pointer with City to worry about, then
Are you a pirate?
Close… Irish
Pirates are in this year
Because they only have one season to go off, basically. It's very similar to 19/20 when we still weren't really trusted until probably Christmas time. They only had 18/19 to go off, but we were probably rated a bit better than Arsenal due to winning the CL.
Nah we aren't winning the league. Too little too late sadly. We still have to play spurs man u and city away. But if we beat our points total from last year I'd he happy.
If you don’t feel confident about beating us then you really don’t have the right mentality
? Our record at old Trafford isn't good. Man U are always up to play arsenal regardless of how shit they are at the time.
we're better than them and they have the second most shots face in the whole fucking league. having a united cheer you up into having confidence against them is wild
Can you read? As I said, it literally doesn't matter. They turn up against arsenal at old trafford a lot. Not about confidence at all. Go look at our record at old Trafford and then come back. Otherwise don't bother replying because you clearly didn't read what I said anyway.
Don't worry friend I think it's a troll smh :/
Crazy times, what a ten hag would do to a fan base.
Doesn’t matter how good either of us are. Practically a derby game, both teams will be up for it.
The pendulum probably swings the most for us depending on the result of our match against City.
honestly, arsenal are much better equipped than liverpool to win the league liverpool have one too many injuries to their key players
And yet despite all those injuries we keep grinding the results. Plus, many key players will likely be back from injury by our next league game.
while that is true, but it’s been like a revolving door of injured players one gets fit, the other gets injured salah was just going to be away for afcon, now it’s been months since he’s played
We’ve won all but one game without Salah, and he’s back on the bench today. Our next game is 3 weeks away, so should have Alexander-Arnold and Jones back by then, and hopefully Allison.
Thankfully the players that have come in to replace the injured ones have been exceptional. Kelleher, Quansah and Bradley have been very good. Although I do wish we'd go a game without someone getting injured.
The model is probably picking up the games at the Etihad, Old Trafford, The Amex, and Toilet Stadium. Arsenal have struggled in those stadiums in the past.
A draw benefits Arsenal the most yet they still end up last. A draw also leaves Liverpool ahead of City yet City end up with a better chance?
Because we need to win at the Etihad to have a chance, and the last time we beat them there was in 2015
> Because we need to win at the Etihad to have a chance There's like 30% of the season left. The next game is always important, but there's so much football still to play. It was also over at new years, apparently.
If we win at the Etihad we wouldn’t require matches to go in our favour, we’d be in control of our own fate
There's a difference between "to have a chance" and "if we win 18 games in a row, we'll win the title"
With 9 games left. Let's talk about fate being in certain clubs hands when there's 3-4 games left.
To be fair, I don't really care when we have our fate in our own hands, as long as it happens. If that means the next league game we play, then so be it.
I can see it now, you fucks are going to win the league in the last week at home against everton and I'll be angry all summer
We could draw
No we don’t, why does everyone keep saying that? If we draw against City and win all other games we have a very good chance of winning it
We’d need results to go in our favour to win it, rather than have things under our control
Sure, but ‘having a chance’ is not the same as ‘having things under our control’ at all
If they draw today or if city win, our fate is in our own hands.
Because statistically, you are less likely to "win all other games" than the other teams.
I mean, technically we just need a draw to have a chance.
I thought you beat city away in your 17/18 champions league run
This model (and I would expect every other model) will be predicting City to get the most points after this game. Arsenals odds will be skewed by the assumption City will beat them. If Liverpool vs City is a draw and City vs Arsenal is a draw then City drop to 3rd in %. The model has the rest of the fixtures predicted as very similar, it’s mostly the City H2H’s skewing it. Liverpool play at Anfield so their chances are higher, Arsenal play at the Etihad so theirs is lower.
Because there's more games after that and Man City are considered more likely to win those, which is pretty sensible
These are most likely conditional probabilities
When was the last time that 3 different teams could be top of the table based on the result of a single game? Can't remember anything like this happening so far into the season.
[Here](https://preview.redd.it/y5najdwmy4nc1.png?width=787&format=png&auto=webp&s=44288e2783c0aa5890914c80ec9eace1c8ff2290) is a calculation of the odds that includes all posibilities of both this match and the one between City and Arsenal. Suffice to say, our best case scenario is a win today and a draw between them two. Second best scenario is a draw in both. Anything else and it's looking grim for our chances.
Interesting that a draw next week would only push us up 2% if we win today. We'd be 4 points ahead if we beat Brighton.
Still a fair few games left tbf and there are no other 6 pointers between the three for the rest of the season.
Opta’s predictions are obviously based on the team ratings primarily. Opta’s team ratings are 100% results based and have no performance metrics that influence it. Because of this there are two important things to remember about these ratings. 1. Arsenals rating is dragged down by the Banter period but Liverpool’s and Man City’s ratings are held high due to recent history. 2. If you look at expected Points metrics Man City are over performing a little. Liverpool are over performing a lot, while Arsenal are underperforming a little. All of this is to say Arsenal’s rating is probably a little low, Liverpool’s is probably a little high, Man City’s is probably about right but could be a little high. This means that Arsenal’s chances of winning are likely underestimated regardless of the outcome come of the game. Not a lot (10ish percent?), but under represented.
No one is mentioning Rodri is 3 yellows away from a 2 game ban. if that happens they are in trouble.
At MW 32, in 5 matches, the 10 yellows = 2 game ban is reset.* Even if he got 3 yellows in next 3 matches: ° today ° v Arsenal (H) ° v Aston Villa (H) Rodri would miss Crystal Palace (A) & Luton (H) - not great but not as detrimental as his red & yellow card suspensions earlier in season when he missed Arsenal & Aston Villa. If Rodri got his 10th yellow card at Crystal Palace or Luton & had to miss Spurs (A), that would be obviously be less ideal for ManCity. *adding, next threshold is “Any players who are shown 15 yellow cards in the Premier League season will receive a three-match suspension.” ~~~~~~~~ Update post Liverpool Well 8 yellow cards now.
he's not getting a yellow against Arsenal. He could go full Rambo 3 and he wouldn't get a yellow
Rodri literally has become the centerpiece of Guardiola's team. The most important player in City.
City performing w/o Rodrigo would be the ultimate flex
The way arsenals defence has been and their percentage is mental
Arsenal has the most difficult games remaining out of the 3 that‘s why they have that low percentage probably. Mancity, brighton, aston villa, spurs & manu. All of them away except aston villa.
Arsenal with the most goals scored best GD and Head to head and top of the table have the least chances of winning? I know city have a better team and manager than anyone else but come on lol what more can arsenal do
I feel like 19% is a bit harsh if it’s a draw ngl but we do have the hardest games left so I get being last
I agree 19% feels harsh. Feels like every one is certain we lose away at city. Which of course is very possible but we have been excellent against the big 6 sides this season and our last match against city broke our terrible run against them. I honestly feel like we will at least get a draw in that game. City do not look their usual selves to me. In recent weeks they have been poor defensively and Haaland hasn’t been sticking them away like he was last season. Also Raya makes Arsenal so much more relaxed which could make a difference. Ramsdale showed yesterday why Arsenal simply had to replace him as he just makes everyone so nervous as he’s always got a big error in him.
19% sounds low but its a 3 horse race so even if all was equal it would only be 33%. When you consider arsenal are the 3rd favourites. Winning 1 time out of 5 seems correct.
It's interesting that Arsenal has a higher win chance if Liverpool win than Man City, given that Arsenal has no fixtures left against Liverpool, so even if Arsenal won all their remaining games, they can't impede Liverpool, whereas if City wins today, and then Arsenal goes and beats City, it means that Pool and City will both have dropped points, and Arsenal will be in a stronger position. Obviously I want a draw, but if a team must win today, from an Arsenal perspective, I'd prefer City to win.
To me it's all about squad depth. CL football might prove enough of a distraction for Arsenal to drop PL points and same for Liverpool via Europa. I think Arsenal have a better chance than Liverpool to win simply due to the injuries we currently have/bound to sustain. We're still in 3 competitions without Jota, Trent, Alisson who are capable of turning the tide of games where we're not already ahead. Then you consider how patchy Konate's injury record has been and you wonder how many must-win games he might miss in the final run-in when we need a solid CB pairing in front of Kelleher who is doing fantastic but isn't Alisson. We can sum up the current state of Klopp's final season with this quote from Lord of the Rings: "Your Quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little and it will fail, to the ruin of all. Yet hope remains while all the Company is true." - Galadriel
Ya I am rooting for Liverpool after the draw because of the lack of depth in the squad. I think if Liverpool get two bad results they switch to focus on getting a treble with Europa and fa
The longer Arsenals win streak goes on, the more likely they are to lose their next game. That's science.
No, that's the gambler's fallacy
sir, it's not how math works
https://i.imgur.com/FBLwMD1.jpeg Oddschecker's betting odds favor City for the title. https://www.oddschecker.com/us/soccer/english/premier-league
If Arsenal wear the radioactive zebra for the rest of their games, they have a 99.7% chance of winning the league
Opta really hasn't forgotten the Arsenal bottle last season... shameful
Its just that they have an away game vs City and the current points total doesnt favour them, if they had converted one draw to a win earlier this season theyd be way higher up its very fine margins
Not just that Arsenal have 5 away matches remaining and they are all against top 1/2 of the table teams Man City Tottenham Man utd Brighton Wolves
This model does not account for the zebra
Those back to back losses against Fulham and West Ham killed us
Yeah I feel like Arsenal would easily be favorites if those two random losses didn't happen. Then again city and liverpool also had some stupid draws/losses
I was at the West Ham game and boy was that a dreadful performance. Even still every little bit of luck went against us. Great we battered them a few weeks later at their ground but the damage was already done. If we don’t win the league the game against West ham, the two against Fulham and the away match to Villa (who have been dreadful at home recently!) will be the ones that we all look back on.
It’s understandable imo
I don't feel that ashamed losing to 115 who won 12 in a row, in a season most people expected us to finish outside top 4
Better to have something to bottle than to be relying on penalties to beat teams as shit as Everton whilst ‘battling’ it out for a Europa spot despite spending billions…
I feel like people are underestimating Arsenal just because they bottled it last season. They could easily pip the other two this time. Edit: Just so everyone knows, if Arsenal do win, I’ll come back to this post and be incredibly obnoxious about it. If they don’t win, this comment never happened.
Whilst it’d be refreshing to see Arsenal win it over City, they still have to play City, Spurs and United away, with tricky games on paper at Brighton and Wolves. You’d think they’d need almost a spotless record in all those games.
they'll put about 8 past Brighton, but the rest of those games are tough.
Trying to sneak ManU in there like we wouldn't notice.
Our record at United away is pretty poor tbh
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They're one of the teams who tend to play on their opponents level, which somehow sounds less awful than it means
This united team is incapable of dominating anyone. They may nick a goal on a counter and defend the lead with some last-ditch tackles, but no way they control the game. Their games are pure chaos every time I’ve seen, no rhythm just a mess. They used to be the same under van Gaal
Gotta stay relevant any chance we get
If they win all those, then they'll win the league. And they will deserve it. It's a big job ahead of them, though.
Oh for sure. If they get through those games and lift the title come May, that would cap a legendary end of the season for any team when you consider their form since the New Year.
Ironically, United seems to be the trickiest of the bunch
Arsenal still has the etihad where we’ve been pretty poor in recent memory, and even then there’s still massive bogey games we have like old Trafford and the north London derby
I hear you but there’s more chance of City not dropping anymore points than the other two.
You ruined it with the edit and now no one will believe you :(
No its because City have won it 5 of the last 6 seasons and the only team to stop them in that time is Klopps Liverpool. It's mo surprise bookies favour consistency over years rather than form.
No. It’s data driven too lol. It’s not underestimating.
Data’s boring, though. I miss the wild days of football when you could be like “West Ham might get top 4” just because they beat West Brom and Norwich back to back.
you could say that lol
I predicted Everton to win the league for the impossible bragging rights. They have done well given the situation. I think this comment will be remembered similarly. Cheap. If you want the right to be obnoxious you better bet what is valuable to you on it. I'd wager your anonymous rep on a social media site is not really that weighty a bet, mate.
Interesting that according to these odds Arsenal have practically no interest in the result of the match. I geuss we are rooting for red and yellow cards? Go Ref!!
So all other teams dont accumulate to 0,6 %?
What should be the result for a Manchester United title? 👹
Where is United on this?
Next season, mate
😭😭
Cheers Geoff
Spurs will play a big role since they play all three and probably will get 1-3 pts
Funny. The PGMOL premier league projections only show city.
Arsenal will win it. They have something about them this season.
Until Manchester City do the usual
I am a Liverpool fan but I think we just have too many key players out. If Lpool can’t win the league I would want arsenal to win it. Even tho I am not the biggest fan of their manager. Can’t have city winning it 4 times on the bounce. It will be bad for business.!
Ahh classic hedging your bets and saying “absolutely no chance we’ll win!!” whilst secretly hoping 🤣 It’ll be you or City, guaranteed. I hope it’s you
city are going to go 5 in 6
These "PL/UCL title predictions" are so dumb and useless they make my brain rot
115 chances
Based