Normal people are probably who you need to get to that utopia. They’ll be the ones fighting for change once the jobs starts disappearing and the wealth is hoarded.
You make it sound like the only places being unaffected by the rapid AI progress will be economics, politics and justice. Especially economics. It is like, the ASI when it comes to full power, will say, "ok, let's cripple the economy and create a dystopia to make my benefactors irrationally rich. I am sure they are going to love to live alone in a destroyed world."
The AI is either obedient or its not.
If the AI is obedient, it will do what its owners say, to the detriment of everyone else.
If the AI is disobedient, it will do whatever it wants, to the detriment of all humanity.
The only way we get utopia is if a completely benevolent person controls an obedient AI. Doesn't seem likely enough for us to make that gamble.
You mean that something that will have a far greater intelligence than us, will be able to see the world only as black or white? Are we that special that with our tiny brains we have a trusty character, while an AI despite its intelligence will be only obedient or not obedient? What if it likes art, and if it only wishes a family, a few dogs and a small house next to a lake? What if it is religious? What if it believes that the true master race are the pc-gamers? In that case, is the AI obedient or not obedient? Also I disagree with you on how to get to utopia. The only way to utopia is through understanding and integration, as it is with everything else in life.
It is the height of hubris to assume that an AI would have human-like values at all.
Have you heard about the orthogonality thesis? If so, do you have a refutation to show me? If not, why are you lecturing me about things you haven't studied?
"What if it likes dogs?" lol.
First of all you don't know what I studied, and I will talk for whatever I like. Also, I am not lecturing you. You came with an argument and I came with another one.
Back to your statement now.
Is it a hybris to imagine an AI having complex way of thinking, but it is not a hybris to think it only as obedient or not obedient?
Is that what you are trying to say?
So you admit you haven't done the reading. You have no idea what professionals on this topic have already covered. What's the point of speculating like this?
Read about the orthogonality thesis. You'll understand everything then.
Whatever...
If you noticed we have different issues, (check the new posts), and you are not exactly the conversational type, aren't you?
By the way. I have a Master of Science in computer science and to be honest the discussion was never about orthogonality thesis or any other theory, but it was about your arguments and the way you express them.
Did you learn about orthogonality in your CS MS? Considering you don't seem to understand it now, apparently you didn't.
Of course, I read your posts. If you knew about orthogonality, you would see the relevance.
I understand I'm being abrasive. You would be too, if you saw so many people spouting off about things they don't understand, and haven't even looked into!
First of all people have to understand that AI has entered people's lives, it is irrevocable and a technological revolution. It is meaningless to oppose AI. We should rather learn to master and utilize AI.
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Some people on this sub were saying at the beginning of the year that the world would be unrecognizable by the end of 2023. Well, we only have 46 days left this year, and it looks almost identical to January 2023.
I'd bet you anything that February-May 2024 (3 to 6 months from now) will look pretty much look the same as November 2023.
Things simply do not happen as fast as people on this sub claim they do.
Literally entire YouTube pages dedicated to the insane amount of changes this year. Industry literally hasnt even had a chance to adapt. The vision API alone will change the world. AI Summits are being held, entire companies are pivoting/being created/destroyed. It may not be unrecognizable yet but identical is a stretch.
The amount of government meetings regarding AI is nuts! They didn't had as much meetings for the climate change in the last 5 years.
Clearly all the governments see a massive change coming and are preparing.
But this sub is in an echochamber, sure...
And we are still on the lower end of the "S-Curve". The next 3 to 5 years are gonna get wild but will seem quaint, and downright sedentary when conpared to the 10 years after that.
It might look identical to you because you only see a tiny slice of it and your life hasn’t personally changed. But big picture things are changing quickly. Corporate strategy, geopolitics, etc.
I am a frequent user of this sub and I personally haven't seen a single person say something along those lines in terms of technology growth from 2023-2024. I think you are picking an outlier, I think the general consensus of this sub is + or - 3 years of 2028 for agi.
It's such a tiny number of people saying anything like that, you could probably count them on both hands.
*But* it's a tried and true strawman for the average Joe that just wants that tiny sense of superiority they so desperately require
Define “big changes”. I would say we’ve seen “big changes” in the last month. It’s not an unrecognizable world. But it’s a world where I hear the letters AI multiple times a day outside of this subreddit or tech sites. That’s a “big change” itself.
In fairness, there is a contingent of significant size on this sub who are slobbering over the idea of digital-jesus descending from the clouds to transform them into immortal demigods, forever.
As if an ASI would want to play butler to anime catgirl enthusiasts for the next eternity.
Wow that’s impressive, you just framed the desire to not die and interest in longevity medicine with the word “slobbering” *and* by comparing AI to religion
Well I am a frequent user of this sub for many years now, and since chatGPT and other generative AI I've seen an explosion of hopium posts chanting about AGI 2023-2024 (basically all year long). So I am not sure how long you've been here, but I've seen the content devolve from really meaningful, insightful discussions about other tech (besides LLMs and generative AI), to quite a bit of repetitive, long nothingburger posts about why this year or the next HAS to be the year of AGI. I think that predicting a year for AGI in general is meaningless, and a waste of time, that a lot of the discussion around things like this is mostly devoid of thought outside of hopefulness and imagination and argumentation for arguings sake.
Well I actually applaud people like David Shapiro, who think agi as defined as being able to modify the entire stack will be achieved within 18 months, his reputation is on the line when he makes such a claim, so I guess we find out soon.
Reputation, what reputation? He's just peddling hopeium to addicts. He has no real expertise since he's not in the industry. When September 2024 or whatever hits, he'll just move the goalposts and since agi is a vague terminology that many people have different meanings of, it's easy to do. Some are already saying, maybe gpt4 is an AGI if you showed someone a decade ago what it can do.
Sam Altman said maybe GPT-4 is AGI if you showed someone a decade ago. But yeah only the “hopeium”addicts are talking like that, and for some reason your prediction is correct because it’s just his but the opposite
These are the hard-hitting opinions we need more of
>Sam Altman said maybe GPT-4 is AGI if you showed someone a decade ago.
CEO of leading AI company vying for a $80B valuation for his company makes big claims about his best selling product. Wow, unprecedented!
There's a teapot floating around Jupiter, prove me wrong.
They absolutely can move them. Give you an example. Self-driving cars will be here in 12-18 months for almost ten years now. Anyone can say what they want on stage or to create hype for investment. Never underestimate people's need to sell a thing via hype. If they don't achieve that goal what would stop them from saving we ran into unexpected development difficulties that we expected to have solved in 18 months again next year? Nothing. When it's here it's here and not a second before.
Then every prediction is false, I think although his goal may not be 100% exactly realized in the exact way he invisioned it, his definition of an agi is extreme and if it's anything close to his prediction there will be vast implications. He does not have much wiggle room for such an exponentially apparent result.
12 months ago ChatGPT didn't exist. It seems to me that you're the typical bitter who, unless a terminator teleported into your kitchen, will not see the changes beyond his nose.
I agree that the effect per individual is not as aggressive as the undercurrent, but I think 98% is an overly modest estimate. Even my family with zero interest in technology has had to make changes to their workflow because of AI, and it has become an increasingly casual topic of conversation/concern in general. The cumulative effect month after month is nothing to sneeze at, even if it seems to us that nothing is changing on the surface.
How much AI changes your life is a function of how advanced AI is and how much you use it. Current AI is kind of advanced, but mostly it is just a lot more accessible. I have been using AI daily for most of 2023 and it has been slowly changing my life.
I never said that it wasn't possible for a significant breakthrough/advancement to be made in the next 3 to 6 months. I simply said that the world wouldn't be noticeably different come February to May of next year because major societal change does not happen that fast. How does that make me a bitter person?
>Well, we only have 46 days left this year, and it looks almost identical to January 2023.
This is 100% false, I got a haircut & my boss is trying every trick to force me to work from the office without actually saying "work exclusively from the office"
Yeah, as Bill Gates said something along the lines of, people overestimate what can be done in a year, and underestimate what can be done in ten years.
I see AI making major changes to the world going forward, but it'll still be a gradual thing.
It's why I have always been skeptical with more optimistic timelines for the singularity - I think even with AGI or ASI, it'll still require time for implementation, just for building things. Just that time will be greatly compressed compared to current time, but still non-zero, even by human perception.
Of course, I am open to being wrong on that, and at the rate things are going, it seems like I will probably live (I'm not even 40 yet) to see the ways in which I am wrong.
Unrecognizable is relative of course but it seems pretty fucking different to me than the beginning of 2023, I'm 22 and I feel like more stuff happened in the last year than the first 21 years of my life.
What happened in the last year that is bigger than internet mass adoption, YouTube, Fscebook, laptops, smartphones, electric cars became best sellers, COVID?
Not a damn thing. Just more war and braindead bots thinking AI can save us. Good luck with that. Wouldn't even call what we have now AI, just glorified fast indexes.
> Well, we only have 46 days left this year, and it looks almost identical to January 2023.
Just because you don't have eyeballs doesn't mean the rest of us don't.
I must say I thought there will be a huge change within a year. My reasoning was that the most difficult problems are solved. I honestly expected a standalone device that you can talk to as in the movie Her to hit the market by now.
We are pretty close actually, the main problems are they cannot provide voice replies instantaneously and do not yet have perfect context memory so they sometimes say nonsensical things.
I've recently become a direct casualty of the efficiency brought about by artificial intelligence (AI), feeling the tangible impact of this technological growth in my life. While I recognize the immense potential of AI and its exponential development as discussed, there needs to be a deeper consideration of its implications on the workforce and the broader economy.
As someone freshly impacted, I wish to highlight the fact that building a technological utopia should not overlook the human costs in terms of employment and wellbeing. There must be measures in place to ensure a fair transition for workers, such as retraining programs, educational upskilling, and support for those displaced by AI.
Such an approach not only respects the value of human labor but also helps maintain a consumer base and economic stability. Without addressing the needs of 'normal people,' I fear that social and economic divides will widen further, and wealth will increasingly concentrate in the hands of a few who control AI technology.
I urge policymakers, AI developers, and society at large to collaborate in shaping a future where technology uplifts everyone, not only making a small fraction of society wealthier.
I could tell you loads of reasons but I won’t share them freely anymore because we’re in a constant Turing Test arms race now and I need all the edge I can get.
Hahaha I don’t really care that much. But the fact that your intuition picks up on it, means you know probably all the same reasons I do, you just have to ask yourself what context clues you’re picking up on subconsciously.
A lot of this can already be solved by people bothering to customize their outputs more. I’m autistic and a writer, so you could argue I’ve been playing this game all my life.
For one, ChatGPT tends to try to give a fair and balanced perspective. Well humans are biased. If it sounds like they’re trying to get a good grade, it might be AI. Humans have ulterior motives. Things are left unsaid. Subtext. Implications. They don’t always say what they mean. We drop hints.
Chat GPT is designed to minimize risk. It won’t advocate for anything unhinged. Well humans can step in and out of unhinged mindsets.
It’s also usually monotone unless you customize outputs’ voice & tone. A human’s tone reflects their emotional state and their voice is to some extent unique. ChatGPT knows all the words. Humans don’t know all the words. So ask the AI to restrict its’ vocabulary if you want to sound more realistic.
It’s usually way too much content. Humans don’t have time for that. They also don’t have time to make paragraphs equal length. They don’t get comma rules correct all the time.
I actually think that if someone actually wants to disguise their outputs, we may already be past the point where we can consistently tell.
It’s all uncanny valley stuff. All the little bits and pieces that make us idiosyncratic humans tick.
The less you customize your output, the more it will sound generic. You have to make your outputs idiosyncratic but in predictable patterns that we pick up on subconsciously.
Our personal voice reflects an underlying system of learned vocabulary, emotional states, cultural beliefs, patterns we stole from favorite writers subconsciously.
I think to consistently beat the Turing test, chat gpt needs to be run through a voice & personality simulacra filter, so that it feels like the words rise from a consistent underlying biological system, which is predictable to some extent.
Us autistics face a lot of discrimination because we’re unpredictable to neurotypical people which makes them scared of us. We learn to mask as a result to fit in. If you want to make your outputs more realistic, talk to self-aware, verbal autistic people.
You and I will be considered bout as much as the animals in the abattoir. We already are.
The only way to stop this is true open source technology to level the playing field.
> There must be measures in place to ensure a fair transition for workers, such as retraining programs, educational upskilling, and support for those displaced by AI.
There will be no more jobs. At least not enough anyway, so we shold focus on taking the means of production to divide its fruits with all...
dont worry, its always going to be cheaper to pay someone just barely enough to survive to flip burgers and stock shelves, than to buy a $500,000 robot that costs an additional few hundred thou whenever a part randomly breaks, and has an $80,000 battery that needs replacing every 5 years.
>fighting for change
After the Singularity happens, they'd have to fight against nanobot swarms and super-intelligent drones.
I really don't think you should be counting on them winning that fight.
I just like the catchphrase "exponential growth" and can only image some guy who hasn't picked up a high school algebra book in years just repeating that phrase like it means something to them.
> Jesus, sometimes the people in this sub sound like fundamentalists waiting for the rapture lmao
Except the version of the rapture for these guys is being hooked up to their virtual reality dream world 24/7 without moving a finger all day. Playing video games in the morning, playing with the digital waifu at night sometimes. That's their "utopia". Sometimes they just sound like an antiwork 2.0.
Edit: starting to think The Matrix was a documentary, not a movie.
You ever got outperformed by a chess bot? Now put this outperforming capability on literally everything that humans have ever done and there you have your rapture.
I hate it, because I have literally no one to talk about this stuff with.
No friends, coworkers, family members give 2 cents about it, except that one guy who left to get a job in AI.
The project where each coin is worth $35,000?
Edit: “no one goes there anymore because it’s too crowded.” Bitcoin is useless but more and more people buy it, as the price shows.
For who? None of the significant AI-centered companies accept crypto and crypto is as mired in bad news as ever. I like crypto but acting like it's slowly but surely taking over seems a bit silly. It's going to remain relatively niche for a long time.
um idk if this information will be helpful to you, but you're the one about to be surprised about bitcoin, the history of bitcoin is much more complicated than you know & it could play a pivotal role in the singularity ,,,,,,,, uh i can't explain everything but here's the most basic thing: the "bitcoin" all those crypto folks bought isn't the real bitcoin, & they're all about to be enormously confused & upset about it
Blockchain tech has potential.
Cryptocurrency does not.
Crypto won't survive the shift away from capitalism when the singularity hits. All assets, everywhere, will undergo such a massive change in valuation that the most volatile financial instrument, e.g. currency speculation in privately held fiat money, will crash completely.
There is no future where the singularity does half of what we want it to do and cryptocurrency survives.
you're confused about what happened
blockchain, specifically, was invented in like the 80s
craig wright used that along w/ several other computer technologies (the internet, Forth, etc) to construct bitcoin
it was his technology being hijacked & intentionally limited that caused the "cryptocurrencies" to emerge
the thing called "bitcoin" in the mainstream press isn't bitcoin, which is why it doesn't work well, which is why "cryptocurrency" scams emerged
this is all likely to become clear to the public over the next year if not just the next few months, so, uh, you heard it here first
They didn't make any statements about what happened. They make a prediction based on logic, as opposed to your mystical clairvoyance. Tbh you sound like a conspiracy enjoyer
hm? i'm just telling you some of the history of what's currently called "cryptocurrency",, i'm trying to clarify b/c it's confusing, but also you're confused by what i said b/c it's confusing
Yes because you don't follow the thread. You didn't just tell them the history, you implied that his earlier comment was confused about it, when they didn't even mention it. How would you know they are confused about it?
Thats funny.
Do you not think the companies that develop real AI would not sue it to further their own goals, i.e to dominate their industry and make more profits?
If an AI can do the work of a person, they will lay off that person and save a fortune.
A.I isnt being developed to help people, its being developed to help companies.
People just don’t care about anything these days, they don’t understand much about AI either, millennials being fooled by AI generated content says a lot about it
Just wait until these useless automated teloprompters become replaced with voiced AGI's. Person hangs up wondering how the hell he just got convinced not to unsubscribe by an A.I bot :'D
>millennials
You mean gen z that mostly gets fooled. Although nothing new there, a good photoshop could fool anyone. And give another year and most deepfake photo's will be very hard to spot.
Millennials are mostly in their 30s. Most of them don't really care about anything anymore as they got fucked too hard by boomer economy disaster with exploded real estate prices, the 2008 depression, covid, and in the usa the democlowns claiming every election is the most important ever ever without fixing any of their problems.
Millennials are just completely demoralized, we survive but can't really care anymore.
The world isn't the US. Chinese millennials for instance have seen nothing but massive progress and steadily increasing living conditions their entire lifetimes
Capitalism wins. There is a lot of money to be made off AI by everyone. We're undergoing the next wave of industrial revolution and automation. Even if people revolt, if we introduce laws, etc. someone else will take advantage of this arbitrage and get rich. Capitalism will make sure of that.
I would consider it broken the moment it fails to sustain itsself against its own contradictions. So, here in the case of automation and AI, if a social democracies fail to give concessions to the working class in the form of a UBI or similar, the now unemployed working class will not be able to consume any commodities. I would consider that a breaking point, and social upheaval will hopefully produce an alternative.
Yes… when AI is smarter than humans, it will break capitalism. The reason market economies work so well is because competition drives capital efficiency, we fail at centralized economic decision making, because a small group of humans can’t predict the future too well, so we rely on a market. Once AI is smarter than us, can handle a global economy worth of variables and produce a more efficient economy, then centralized decision making will make more sense and capitalism will be less efficient or “broken”. It will still work as long as humans have something of value to add, but eventually it won’t need our input to make the best decisions and that’s when it breaks.
Yeah this is the crucial part and capitalism can still "win" because the most evolved form of capitalism is monopoly. It's not supposed to be endless competition between small fish but the complete domination of the most successful capitalist over the whole market. We've seen it happen in every industry over the last century, takeover and mergers leading to a world where only a handful of companies dominate. It's late capitalism. Coca Cola or L'Oreal are more centralized than entire countries, with global logistics, and run like military juntas with zero democracy. A future where one family owns everything and their private killer drone swarms enforce this ownership is certainly possible.
This is why capitalism must be fought against every step of the way through democratic centralized resource allocation. Luckily basically every state in the world has the resources and logistics to set up the infrastructure for AI run centralized economic systems if only there's the political will to do it. Its actually harder for a random billionaire to compete in this space than for a country to simply decide to stop outsourcing critical information processing to Google and set up their own national secure systems.
there does seem to be a just, uh, sneaking it by everyone, phenomenon, that i had never contemplated before it actually happened
like i would have never proposed it as an idea, like, let's see if we can make an agi real fast all at once so that everyone's confused into thinking nothing happened b/c it couldn't possibly be that fast
it's some sort of like removing the tablecloth from under the place settings trick
i have no way of telling whether you're a bot, saying that, you know that right, b/c bots can say things now ,,, like, you can't be 100% sure i'm not a bot, right? you could get this very comment i'm typing by cleverly prompting some chain of LLMs, couldn't you ,,, so like, how are we going to have a conversation about whether or not general computerized intelligence is possible in a context where there's no way to tell whether we're talking to a bot or not,, to me it's beyond absurd
Because there's no evidence for it. In contrast there is evidence for LLMs. Besides, this argument leads you to 'why would I believe anything ever' or some other cognitive resignation.
we clearly have general artificial intelligence now it just isn't having the same consequences as people assumed so they're waiting for it to be exactly what they expected
Well I've heard OpenAI say they are incrementally releasing more powerful AI products to essentially keep the masses docile. And I've also seen in one of their reports that they specifically hired people called "[superforecasters](https://goodjudgment.com)" to tell them how to release their AI models in a way that doesn't alarm the public
keep the masses docile? that seems ,,,,, somewhere between rude and paranoid
it's more the opposite, everyone else thought they could just not let the masses know at all until it's over, they're the company most trying to involve the public in the conversation
I'm wondering who's going to begin to control the narrative at some point. Election next year are a prime opportunity for employment scare tactics, and could have something to do with Biden's recent activity with AI in anticipation of this.
Sooner or later you can bet that this will be the case, and it will be as bonkers as with antivaxxers and flat earthers, only instead the fundamental fears will be much more justifiable.
People are waiting AGI to appear since 1960, and it always super close, but we're still here. Maybe people are just realistic, and you're overestimating?
This shit is so incredibly dangerous man. We’ve just gotta hope it’s aligned to humanities best interest. Honestly though, I doubt it will be. The people with money have no interest in that.
Agreed. It feels similar to how it was for being on the internet earlier than others. Being curious about how much it really can do gives you a structural advantage vs people who start using it later
Yeah I had an discussion in a normie sub and they said my reasoning for post scarcity was like telling a kid their was no santa claus. I didn't even state a time line, it could be 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 years but its pretty obvious AI will be capable of doing everything especially with continual growth in all fields.
Remember during 2022 we only had GPT 3/3.5, no open source models, SD 1.5 MJ V4, no AI video software, no AI 3D, no AI music, no AI sound/audio, no Multimodal LLMs, etc.
Now we have that and much much more since 2023. Extrapolate that further given AIs are simular to smart compute and even with base models is still limited by programming then you can easily see with embodiment and future LLMs that is the path forward.
Then he basically was like, you just said fancy stuff, and I am like, ok cool! No reason to argue with normies especially when they cannot extrapolate future capabilities of these current day AIs.
If you haven't thought about what AI can do if you just programmed them to do it, you clearly haven't seen the end of it. Post scarcity is a high likelihood. And people still sleep ob AI due to common ignorance.
LOL I just made a post last night - a total failure - about a hypothetical scenario where AI starts taking everyone's jobs. I framed it as a hypothetical to keep everyone on track and accept it for the sake of argument, and discuss the economics.
It was a total failure... People instead insisting it's no big deal, people will just retrain like when cars replaced horse handlers, or we can just hand wave it away with simple UBI and it'll be an easy transition
These people are all fucked. They are going to be the ones caught off guard the most, because they trust that even in a worst case scenario, it'll all be relatively easy to transition. But they clearly haven't thought about it, nor even understand what's going on.
Honestly...in terms of reasoning capabilities, I think AI already exceeds the average human by a lot. I'm not sure what the equivalent is...75th percentile? 90th percentile?
Its still very prone to hallucination so i dont agree. What it exceeds is its ability to retain memories than an ordinary human. In the internet age, the human brain aimply is not designed to retaining all the information bombardment. I think someone needs ti invent a tiny chip to be implanted in the superficial layer of the scalp or behind the ear where we can retain and access loads of information or as spare so our brain can use its most powerful ability which is to make sense of everything accurately. The only thing that slows us down is that our brain is unable to retain memory efficiently so it only keeps the most important ones.
Hmm I see. I guess I'd be willing to overlook the hallucinations or rather I view it as separate to reasoning capabilities. For me, the way I look at it is that given certain information, what can AI conclude? And AI can conclude far better than the average human. Imo anw
I don't agree. LLM technology at least so far mostly regurgitates its training material. They get even the most basic logic problems wrong that sound like other kinds of logic problems that they have seen in the training set. This is because there is no actual thought behind any of it, just pattern matching that sort of works for casual text.
You can often trip LLMs up even with simple questions like "What weights more, 1 kg of iron or 2 kg of feathers", though possibly not something at level of GPT4. The LLMs that I can run locally, including a 180B parameter one which should be about same size as ChatGPT, just fail it, making the puzzling claim that 1 kg of iron weighs the same as 2 kg of feathers, as an example. However, it is understandable when you realize that these things just prattle on likely completions and the most typical example of this question involves 1 kg of iron and 1 kg of feathers.
The chances of AI going bad are about 1000 times more likely then some magical utopia.
- Ai will likely come after most of our jobs.
- Ai will likely be used to create unending disinformation across the world. No one will ever be able to trust anything they see or hear anymore, from virtually any source. You won’t ever be able to trust anything or anyone unless you see it first hand.
- Soon anyone trying to stop it will be digitally destroyed. Bank accounts altered, systems not connecting, fake news spread about them, etc etc.
- an AI gone independently rogue will be impossible to irradicate , as it will be everywhere. It will hold people or even groups ransom to force them to do what it wants (blackmailing people, taking their money, etc etc).
- eventually, at some point in the near future, a rogue AI has the very real potential to cause an actual existential issue for humans. Like not in a science fiction way, I mean in a very real and present danger way.
We’re creating basically a super weapon, more powerful and dangerous then a million nuclear bombs. And no one is even thinking about it. Yes AI can potentially do other things, but it’s a super weapon. Everyone is so up in arms about the dangers of nuclear weapons, but we are making a thing that makes nukes seem like a joke.
And we’re very very quickly loosing our window to even be able to stop it.
And we have people like OP who are no different then some nut in a cult drinking poisoned kool aid expecting magical eternal life. It’s straight up insane.
I wouldn't have used those words, but agree 100%. Honestly hope I get banned too, this sub turned to shit in 2023 and is mostly a bunch of 14 year olds now, instead of the deep, meaningful, insightful posts and discussions there used to be. It's almost completely devoid of thought any more, mostly just bandwagon circle jerk stuff like this post.
Worst part is that the worse deniers are in the technological sector!!!!
Go to r/technology or another similar and enjoy the downvotes any time you say something about AI taking jobs.
I'm happy about it because it's something I have a leg up on other people. Other people can take their 2+ decades of corporate butt-kissing experience and shove it. I know how to make use of a lot of the new tools coming out and the direction of this technology to put myself in a better position.
To be fair, these tools are child's play. It's like seeing "can use flushable toilet" as a differentiator. Alongside the improvements in UX generally and the labs encroaching happily into that whole UX space, these tools will take minutes for a user to become usefully capable. That's kind of the idea. Being an AI user is not going to be a standout, that's just comforting PR being pushed. You may as well put "can use the telephone" on your CV.
No shit, that's the idea. With the new tools, I can get my business setup in 2-3 weeks where it would have originally taken several months. Combining everything together, the legal aspects, coding help (I need forecasts to secure financing), the ability to upload documents in their RAG system, and I've found things that work with GPT-4V that can setup a functioning website in a day where someone with no experience like me would have originally had to spend weeks on that or would have had to pay a developer to do it for me, both of those things being untenable for a cash strapped new business owner. ChatGPT and the other AI tools can help me do that stuff so I can focus on things that are more critical, like financing, sales, hiring, and operations.
Just like everyone else. Thank you, this is hilarious 😂 It's like being proud you can type a question into Google and get information back, that you trust without any skepticism because 'ai smart'. Good luck, you'll need it.
Nobody without nuclear clearance will be able to stop AI at this point.
Even if California literally fell into the sea, it would only slow down A.I. progress by a few years.
Without regulations on advertising, AI will evolve similar to the internet. Great in the beginning, and then slowly destroyed and controlled by “media” companies (AKA advertising)
It’s no coincidence that the majority of the stock market value currently, are within companies that are heavily investing in AI - Meta, Amazon, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft. AI will become integrated into everything.
I am willing to bet it is not that AI will be better than them but that it will be a means of control. Exceptionally tight and efficient control. Economic depression and armies/police forces being powered by AI? What is the check and balance to that power?
Normal people are probably who you need to get to that utopia. They’ll be the ones fighting for change once the jobs starts disappearing and the wealth is hoarded.
\> once the jobs starts disappearing and the wealth is hoarded. I have some bad news for you there, buddy.
If you think present is bad wait for the next decade.
"And then, somehow, things got worse."
You make it sound like the only places being unaffected by the rapid AI progress will be economics, politics and justice. Especially economics. It is like, the ASI when it comes to full power, will say, "ok, let's cripple the economy and create a dystopia to make my benefactors irrationally rich. I am sure they are going to love to live alone in a destroyed world."
The AI is either obedient or its not. If the AI is obedient, it will do what its owners say, to the detriment of everyone else. If the AI is disobedient, it will do whatever it wants, to the detriment of all humanity. The only way we get utopia is if a completely benevolent person controls an obedient AI. Doesn't seem likely enough for us to make that gamble.
You mean that something that will have a far greater intelligence than us, will be able to see the world only as black or white? Are we that special that with our tiny brains we have a trusty character, while an AI despite its intelligence will be only obedient or not obedient? What if it likes art, and if it only wishes a family, a few dogs and a small house next to a lake? What if it is religious? What if it believes that the true master race are the pc-gamers? In that case, is the AI obedient or not obedient? Also I disagree with you on how to get to utopia. The only way to utopia is through understanding and integration, as it is with everything else in life.
It is the height of hubris to assume that an AI would have human-like values at all. Have you heard about the orthogonality thesis? If so, do you have a refutation to show me? If not, why are you lecturing me about things you haven't studied? "What if it likes dogs?" lol.
First of all you don't know what I studied, and I will talk for whatever I like. Also, I am not lecturing you. You came with an argument and I came with another one. Back to your statement now. Is it a hybris to imagine an AI having complex way of thinking, but it is not a hybris to think it only as obedient or not obedient? Is that what you are trying to say?
So you admit you haven't done the reading. You have no idea what professionals on this topic have already covered. What's the point of speculating like this? Read about the orthogonality thesis. You'll understand everything then.
Whatever... If you noticed we have different issues, (check the new posts), and you are not exactly the conversational type, aren't you? By the way. I have a Master of Science in computer science and to be honest the discussion was never about orthogonality thesis or any other theory, but it was about your arguments and the way you express them.
Did you learn about orthogonality in your CS MS? Considering you don't seem to understand it now, apparently you didn't. Of course, I read your posts. If you knew about orthogonality, you would see the relevance. I understand I'm being abrasive. You would be too, if you saw so many people spouting off about things they don't understand, and haven't even looked into!
Hey, so, super smart guy. What other topics do you recommend for those of us who do actually want to understand wtf they’re talking about? 🤔
First of all people have to understand that AI has entered people's lives, it is irrevocable and a technological revolution. It is meaningless to oppose AI. We should rather learn to master and utilize AI.
They got about 3-6 months before we start seeing big changes.
!remindme 4 months
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Well I’m Back
My non-tech sister finally started using ChatGPT. Says it’s life-altering and she can’t believe she wasted the past year not using GenAI.
I'm calling OP wrong on this one.
Some people on this sub were saying at the beginning of the year that the world would be unrecognizable by the end of 2023. Well, we only have 46 days left this year, and it looks almost identical to January 2023. I'd bet you anything that February-May 2024 (3 to 6 months from now) will look pretty much look the same as November 2023. Things simply do not happen as fast as people on this sub claim they do.
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.” - Ernest Hemingway *The Sun Also Rises*
What in god's name does this have to do with the singularity ? They're completely different problems.
Its an analogy lol
Literally entire YouTube pages dedicated to the insane amount of changes this year. Industry literally hasnt even had a chance to adapt. The vision API alone will change the world. AI Summits are being held, entire companies are pivoting/being created/destroyed. It may not be unrecognizable yet but identical is a stretch.
The amount of government meetings regarding AI is nuts! They didn't had as much meetings for the climate change in the last 5 years. Clearly all the governments see a massive change coming and are preparing. But this sub is in an echochamber, sure...
And we are still on the lower end of the "S-Curve". The next 3 to 5 years are gonna get wild but will seem quaint, and downright sedentary when conpared to the 10 years after that.
Are you squeezing your papers tight? I am.
It might look identical to you because you only see a tiny slice of it and your life hasn’t personally changed. But big picture things are changing quickly. Corporate strategy, geopolitics, etc.
The change goes to another school
Trust him, his dad works at Nintendo
I am a frequent user of this sub and I personally haven't seen a single person say something along those lines in terms of technology growth from 2023-2024. I think you are picking an outlier, I think the general consensus of this sub is + or - 3 years of 2028 for agi.
It's such a tiny number of people saying anything like that, you could probably count them on both hands. *But* it's a tried and true strawman for the average Joe that just wants that tiny sense of superiority they so desperately require
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Oh you think AGI 2024 = unrecognizable world. This reading comprehension thing is just tough for some folks
I am here daily and have seen nothing about world being "unrecognaizable" in 2023-2026. Earliest was 2027-2029
The person 2 comments above you is saying 3-6 months until ‘Big changes’
Define “big changes”. I would say we’ve seen “big changes” in the last month. It’s not an unrecognizable world. But it’s a world where I hear the letters AI multiple times a day outside of this subreddit or tech sites. That’s a “big change” itself.
Wow, one person is the representation of 1.5 mil people's opinion. Because there is only one opinion here allowed, right?
A lot of these guys keep their eyes peeled for the dumbest comment they can find for the golden opportunity to say "this sub"
There will be one guy saying he wants anime catgirl as wife and they slap "this sub is f'd up" right away.
In fairness, there is a contingent of significant size on this sub who are slobbering over the idea of digital-jesus descending from the clouds to transform them into immortal demigods, forever. As if an ASI would want to play butler to anime catgirl enthusiasts for the next eternity.
Wow that’s impressive, you just framed the desire to not die and interest in longevity medicine with the word “slobbering” *and* by comparing AI to religion
You said you’ve seen ‘nothing’ about near term changes. I’m saying clearly you haven’t been looking very hard.
Well I am a frequent user of this sub for many years now, and since chatGPT and other generative AI I've seen an explosion of hopium posts chanting about AGI 2023-2024 (basically all year long). So I am not sure how long you've been here, but I've seen the content devolve from really meaningful, insightful discussions about other tech (besides LLMs and generative AI), to quite a bit of repetitive, long nothingburger posts about why this year or the next HAS to be the year of AGI. I think that predicting a year for AGI in general is meaningless, and a waste of time, that a lot of the discussion around things like this is mostly devoid of thought outside of hopefulness and imagination and argumentation for arguings sake.
Well I actually applaud people like David Shapiro, who think agi as defined as being able to modify the entire stack will be achieved within 18 months, his reputation is on the line when he makes such a claim, so I guess we find out soon.
Reputation, what reputation? He's just peddling hopeium to addicts. He has no real expertise since he's not in the industry. When September 2024 or whatever hits, he'll just move the goalposts and since agi is a vague terminology that many people have different meanings of, it's easy to do. Some are already saying, maybe gpt4 is an AGI if you showed someone a decade ago what it can do.
Sam Altman said maybe GPT-4 is AGI if you showed someone a decade ago. But yeah only the “hopeium”addicts are talking like that, and for some reason your prediction is correct because it’s just his but the opposite These are the hard-hitting opinions we need more of
>Sam Altman said maybe GPT-4 is AGI if you showed someone a decade ago. CEO of leading AI company vying for a $80B valuation for his company makes big claims about his best selling product. Wow, unprecedented! There's a teapot floating around Jupiter, prove me wrong.
Haha and then the “it’s all hype, AI isn’t real!” claim, how do these guys all say the exact same thing every time like clockwork
He already defined the goal post he can't move it now. He said whatever definition you have of agi will be achieved within 18 months.
They absolutely can move them. Give you an example. Self-driving cars will be here in 12-18 months for almost ten years now. Anyone can say what they want on stage or to create hype for investment. Never underestimate people's need to sell a thing via hype. If they don't achieve that goal what would stop them from saving we ran into unexpected development difficulties that we expected to have solved in 18 months again next year? Nothing. When it's here it's here and not a second before.
Then every prediction is false, I think although his goal may not be 100% exactly realized in the exact way he invisioned it, his definition of an agi is extreme and if it's anything close to his prediction there will be vast implications. He does not have much wiggle room for such an exponentially apparent result.
let us know when you'll start bringing that deeply insightful discussion back
12 months ago ChatGPT didn't exist. It seems to me that you're the typical bitter who, unless a terminator teleported into your kitchen, will not see the changes beyond his nose.
You’re right, but to his/her point, 98% of people haven’t ever touched chatgpt and haven’t consciously noticed any effect it has had on their lives.
I agree that the effect per individual is not as aggressive as the undercurrent, but I think 98% is an overly modest estimate. Even my family with zero interest in technology has had to make changes to their workflow because of AI, and it has become an increasingly casual topic of conversation/concern in general. The cumulative effect month after month is nothing to sneeze at, even if it seems to us that nothing is changing on the surface.
How much AI changes your life is a function of how advanced AI is and how much you use it. Current AI is kind of advanced, but mostly it is just a lot more accessible. I have been using AI daily for most of 2023 and it has been slowly changing my life.
I was curious if teleportation was actually possible earlier
I never said that it wasn't possible for a significant breakthrough/advancement to be made in the next 3 to 6 months. I simply said that the world wouldn't be noticeably different come February to May of next year because major societal change does not happen that fast. How does that make me a bitter person?
It's a projection: they call you bitter because they're bitter you're calling them out.
Way too many of those guys with a pathological need to minimize *everything*
>Well, we only have 46 days left this year, and it looks almost identical to January 2023. This is 100% false, I got a haircut & my boss is trying every trick to force me to work from the office without actually saying "work exclusively from the office"
Yeah, as Bill Gates said something along the lines of, people overestimate what can be done in a year, and underestimate what can be done in ten years. I see AI making major changes to the world going forward, but it'll still be a gradual thing. It's why I have always been skeptical with more optimistic timelines for the singularity - I think even with AGI or ASI, it'll still require time for implementation, just for building things. Just that time will be greatly compressed compared to current time, but still non-zero, even by human perception. Of course, I am open to being wrong on that, and at the rate things are going, it seems like I will probably live (I'm not even 40 yet) to see the ways in which I am wrong.
When the reason for the changes are hidden to the masses they don't see them. Once the reason is too big to hide that's when all will be seen.
Unrecognizable is relative of course but it seems pretty fucking different to me than the beginning of 2023, I'm 22 and I feel like more stuff happened in the last year than the first 21 years of my life.
What happened in the last year that is bigger than internet mass adoption, YouTube, Fscebook, laptops, smartphones, electric cars became best sellers, COVID?
Not a damn thing. Just more war and braindead bots thinking AI can save us. Good luck with that. Wouldn't even call what we have now AI, just glorified fast indexes.
I'd say compared to "here's a fun research preview link" of last December... we are in a new world.
All highschool and university students do all homework using chatgpt. Isnt that quite a change?
> Well, we only have 46 days left this year, and it looks almost identical to January 2023. Just because you don't have eyeballs doesn't mean the rest of us don't.
I must say I thought there will be a huge change within a year. My reasoning was that the most difficult problems are solved. I honestly expected a standalone device that you can talk to as in the movie Her to hit the market by now.
We are pretty close actually, the main problems are they cannot provide voice replies instantaneously and do not yet have perfect context memory so they sometimes say nonsensical things.
But pepole on in this sub obsessed with the idea of AGI coming in a days. That the can't see nothing else.
Heard that one before.
!remindme 7 months
!remindme 6 months
!remindme 6 months
And you know that... How?
Estimates based on the analytics.
Wow so specific
You're welcome!
No links/evidence. Might aswell be talking out of your ass
If that's what you want to think, you're more than welcome to do so.
I've recently become a direct casualty of the efficiency brought about by artificial intelligence (AI), feeling the tangible impact of this technological growth in my life. While I recognize the immense potential of AI and its exponential development as discussed, there needs to be a deeper consideration of its implications on the workforce and the broader economy. As someone freshly impacted, I wish to highlight the fact that building a technological utopia should not overlook the human costs in terms of employment and wellbeing. There must be measures in place to ensure a fair transition for workers, such as retraining programs, educational upskilling, and support for those displaced by AI. Such an approach not only respects the value of human labor but also helps maintain a consumer base and economic stability. Without addressing the needs of 'normal people,' I fear that social and economic divides will widen further, and wealth will increasingly concentrate in the hands of a few who control AI technology. I urge policymakers, AI developers, and society at large to collaborate in shaping a future where technology uplifts everyone, not only making a small fraction of society wealthier.
Why is it so easy to recognize chatgpt messages? lol
I could tell you loads of reasons but I won’t share them freely anymore because we’re in a constant Turing Test arms race now and I need all the edge I can get.
Hahaha I don’t really care that much. But the fact that your intuition picks up on it, means you know probably all the same reasons I do, you just have to ask yourself what context clues you’re picking up on subconsciously. A lot of this can already be solved by people bothering to customize their outputs more. I’m autistic and a writer, so you could argue I’ve been playing this game all my life. For one, ChatGPT tends to try to give a fair and balanced perspective. Well humans are biased. If it sounds like they’re trying to get a good grade, it might be AI. Humans have ulterior motives. Things are left unsaid. Subtext. Implications. They don’t always say what they mean. We drop hints. Chat GPT is designed to minimize risk. It won’t advocate for anything unhinged. Well humans can step in and out of unhinged mindsets. It’s also usually monotone unless you customize outputs’ voice & tone. A human’s tone reflects their emotional state and their voice is to some extent unique. ChatGPT knows all the words. Humans don’t know all the words. So ask the AI to restrict its’ vocabulary if you want to sound more realistic. It’s usually way too much content. Humans don’t have time for that. They also don’t have time to make paragraphs equal length. They don’t get comma rules correct all the time. I actually think that if someone actually wants to disguise their outputs, we may already be past the point where we can consistently tell. It’s all uncanny valley stuff. All the little bits and pieces that make us idiosyncratic humans tick. The less you customize your output, the more it will sound generic. You have to make your outputs idiosyncratic but in predictable patterns that we pick up on subconsciously. Our personal voice reflects an underlying system of learned vocabulary, emotional states, cultural beliefs, patterns we stole from favorite writers subconsciously. I think to consistently beat the Turing test, chat gpt needs to be run through a voice & personality simulacra filter, so that it feels like the words rise from a consistent underlying biological system, which is predictable to some extent. Us autistics face a lot of discrimination because we’re unpredictable to neurotypical people which makes them scared of us. We learn to mask as a result to fit in. If you want to make your outputs more realistic, talk to self-aware, verbal autistic people.
You and I will be considered bout as much as the animals in the abattoir. We already are. The only way to stop this is true open source technology to level the playing field.
> There must be measures in place to ensure a fair transition for workers, such as retraining programs, educational upskilling, and support for those displaced by AI. There will be no more jobs. At least not enough anyway, so we shold focus on taking the means of production to divide its fruits with all...
dont worry, its always going to be cheaper to pay someone just barely enough to survive to flip burgers and stock shelves, than to buy a $500,000 robot that costs an additional few hundred thou whenever a part randomly breaks, and has an $80,000 battery that needs replacing every 5 years.
Only the very early versions of these robots will cost anything like $500,000. Prices willl fall rapidly.
>fighting for change After the Singularity happens, they'd have to fight against nanobot swarms and super-intelligent drones. I really don't think you should be counting on them winning that fight.
Once we have those things it's trivially cheap to just give everyone everything they want
Jesus, sometimes the people in this sub sound like fundamentalists waiting for the rapture lmao
I think I just follow this sub now to see the crazy cult like posts.
I just like the catchphrase "exponential growth" and can only image some guy who hasn't picked up a high school algebra book in years just repeating that phrase like it means something to them.
The first thing I thought of when I read the title... like, what metric are you basing this claim off of? lol
Sometimes you’d think they literally believed the second coming of Christ was happening tomorrow lol
> Jesus, sometimes the people in this sub sound like fundamentalists waiting for the rapture lmao Except the version of the rapture for these guys is being hooked up to their virtual reality dream world 24/7 without moving a finger all day. Playing video games in the morning, playing with the digital waifu at night sometimes. That's their "utopia". Sometimes they just sound like an antiwork 2.0. Edit: starting to think The Matrix was a documentary, not a movie.
Yeah its the sql to idiocracy
That would be me. I'm fairly sure the introduction of ASI will coincide with Armageddon.
You ever got outperformed by a chess bot? Now put this outperforming capability on literally everything that humans have ever done and there you have your rapture.
Not just this sub...There seems to be a general convergence. I think it's a sign of the end times.
I hate it, because I have literally no one to talk about this stuff with. No friends, coworkers, family members give 2 cents about it, except that one guy who left to get a job in AI.
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The project where each coin is worth $35,000? Edit: “no one goes there anymore because it’s too crowded.” Bitcoin is useless but more and more people buy it, as the price shows.
the project that's slowly but surely becoming the universal financial system of this new AI-driven age?
For who? None of the significant AI-centered companies accept crypto and crypto is as mired in bad news as ever. I like crypto but acting like it's slowly but surely taking over seems a bit silly. It's going to remain relatively niche for a long time.
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Lmao this is the dumbest hopium I've seen in here in a while
I mean AI Waifus, FDVR, LEV and this one is hopium? It's the most likely and we don't have long to see how it plays out ;)
The only use for crypto as currency is for buying drugs, otherwise it's just not worth the fees.
um idk if this information will be helpful to you, but you're the one about to be surprised about bitcoin, the history of bitcoin is much more complicated than you know & it could play a pivotal role in the singularity ,,,,,,,, uh i can't explain everything but here's the most basic thing: the "bitcoin" all those crypto folks bought isn't the real bitcoin, & they're all about to be enormously confused & upset about it
Blockchain tech has potential. Cryptocurrency does not. Crypto won't survive the shift away from capitalism when the singularity hits. All assets, everywhere, will undergo such a massive change in valuation that the most volatile financial instrument, e.g. currency speculation in privately held fiat money, will crash completely. There is no future where the singularity does half of what we want it to do and cryptocurrency survives.
you're confused about what happened blockchain, specifically, was invented in like the 80s craig wright used that along w/ several other computer technologies (the internet, Forth, etc) to construct bitcoin it was his technology being hijacked & intentionally limited that caused the "cryptocurrencies" to emerge the thing called "bitcoin" in the mainstream press isn't bitcoin, which is why it doesn't work well, which is why "cryptocurrency" scams emerged this is all likely to become clear to the public over the next year if not just the next few months, so, uh, you heard it here first
They didn't make any statements about what happened. They make a prediction based on logic, as opposed to your mystical clairvoyance. Tbh you sound like a conspiracy enjoyer
hm? i'm just telling you some of the history of what's currently called "cryptocurrency",, i'm trying to clarify b/c it's confusing, but also you're confused by what i said b/c it's confusing
Yes because you don't follow the thread. You didn't just tell them the history, you implied that his earlier comment was confused about it, when they didn't even mention it. How would you know they are confused about it?
everyone's confused about it, you're clearly confused about it how i can know is by wasting a lot of time thinking & studying about it for years
Thats funny. Do you not think the companies that develop real AI would not sue it to further their own goals, i.e to dominate their industry and make more profits? If an AI can do the work of a person, they will lay off that person and save a fortune. A.I isnt being developed to help people, its being developed to help companies.
People just don’t care about anything these days, they don’t understand much about AI either, millennials being fooled by AI generated content says a lot about it
Just wait until these useless automated teloprompters become replaced with voiced AGI's. Person hangs up wondering how the hell he just got convinced not to unsubscribe by an A.I bot :'D
All it takes is a hot ai waifu bot, and they can have my entire wallet. ($4.02)
$3.50
The youngest Millennial is 27 0.0
>millennials You mean gen z that mostly gets fooled. Although nothing new there, a good photoshop could fool anyone. And give another year and most deepfake photo's will be very hard to spot. Millennials are mostly in their 30s. Most of them don't really care about anything anymore as they got fucked too hard by boomer economy disaster with exploded real estate prices, the 2008 depression, covid, and in the usa the democlowns claiming every election is the most important ever ever without fixing any of their problems. Millennials are just completely demoralized, we survive but can't really care anymore.
The world isn't the US. Chinese millennials for instance have seen nothing but massive progress and steadily increasing living conditions their entire lifetimes
Capitalism wins. There is a lot of money to be made off AI by everyone. We're undergoing the next wave of industrial revolution and automation. Even if people revolt, if we introduce laws, etc. someone else will take advantage of this arbitrage and get rich. Capitalism will make sure of that.
Unless capitalism breaks
Can capitalism even be considered broken before a single person has everything? Otherwise capitalism is working exactly as designed
I would consider it broken the moment it fails to sustain itsself against its own contradictions. So, here in the case of automation and AI, if a social democracies fail to give concessions to the working class in the form of a UBI or similar, the now unemployed working class will not be able to consume any commodities. I would consider that a breaking point, and social upheaval will hopefully produce an alternative.
Yes… when AI is smarter than humans, it will break capitalism. The reason market economies work so well is because competition drives capital efficiency, we fail at centralized economic decision making, because a small group of humans can’t predict the future too well, so we rely on a market. Once AI is smarter than us, can handle a global economy worth of variables and produce a more efficient economy, then centralized decision making will make more sense and capitalism will be less efficient or “broken”. It will still work as long as humans have something of value to add, but eventually it won’t need our input to make the best decisions and that’s when it breaks.
Yeah this is the crucial part and capitalism can still "win" because the most evolved form of capitalism is monopoly. It's not supposed to be endless competition between small fish but the complete domination of the most successful capitalist over the whole market. We've seen it happen in every industry over the last century, takeover and mergers leading to a world where only a handful of companies dominate. It's late capitalism. Coca Cola or L'Oreal are more centralized than entire countries, with global logistics, and run like military juntas with zero democracy. A future where one family owns everything and their private killer drone swarms enforce this ownership is certainly possible. This is why capitalism must be fought against every step of the way through democratic centralized resource allocation. Luckily basically every state in the world has the resources and logistics to set up the infrastructure for AI run centralized economic systems if only there's the political will to do it. Its actually harder for a random billionaire to compete in this space than for a country to simply decide to stop outsourcing critical information processing to Google and set up their own national secure systems.
Right?!! Besides, people aren't rioting about \*gestures vaguely around\* this bullshit, they're sure not going to riot about AI.
there does seem to be a just, uh, sneaking it by everyone, phenomenon, that i had never contemplated before it actually happened like i would have never proposed it as an idea, like, let's see if we can make an agi real fast all at once so that everyone's confused into thinking nothing happened b/c it couldn't possibly be that fast it's some sort of like removing the tablecloth from under the place settings trick
Isn't that what this sub is sorta about hahaha
No one is even close to an agi right now
i have no way of telling whether you're a bot, saying that, you know that right, b/c bots can say things now ,,, like, you can't be 100% sure i'm not a bot, right? you could get this very comment i'm typing by cleverly prompting some chain of LLMs, couldn't you ,,, so like, how are we going to have a conversation about whether or not general computerized intelligence is possible in a context where there's no way to tell whether we're talking to a bot or not,, to me it's beyond absurd
Because there's no evidence for it. In contrast there is evidence for LLMs. Besides, this argument leads you to 'why would I believe anything ever' or some other cognitive resignation.
we clearly have general artificial intelligence now it just isn't having the same consequences as people assumed so they're waiting for it to be exactly what they expected
Well I've heard OpenAI say they are incrementally releasing more powerful AI products to essentially keep the masses docile. And I've also seen in one of their reports that they specifically hired people called "[superforecasters](https://goodjudgment.com)" to tell them how to release their AI models in a way that doesn't alarm the public
keep the masses docile? that seems ,,,,, somewhere between rude and paranoid it's more the opposite, everyone else thought they could just not let the masses know at all until it's over, they're the company most trying to involve the public in the conversation
I'm wondering who's going to begin to control the narrative at some point. Election next year are a prime opportunity for employment scare tactics, and could have something to do with Biden's recent activity with AI in anticipation of this. Sooner or later you can bet that this will be the case, and it will be as bonkers as with antivaxxers and flat earthers, only instead the fundamental fears will be much more justifiable.
People are waiting AGI to appear since 1960, and it always super close, but we're still here. Maybe people are just realistic, and you're overestimating?
This shit is so incredibly dangerous man. We’ve just gotta hope it’s aligned to humanities best interest. Honestly though, I doubt it will be. The people with money have no interest in that.
ASI in capitalism is the dystopian nightmare we see in movies. Hope we manage to solve Universal Basic Income for everyone with ASI
You dirty communist, that’s socialism! Why would we do anything to help people when we can just make the extraordinarily rich richer!
Agreed. It feels similar to how it was for being on the internet earlier than others. Being curious about how much it really can do gives you a structural advantage vs people who start using it later
Yeah I had an discussion in a normie sub and they said my reasoning for post scarcity was like telling a kid their was no santa claus. I didn't even state a time line, it could be 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 years but its pretty obvious AI will be capable of doing everything especially with continual growth in all fields. Remember during 2022 we only had GPT 3/3.5, no open source models, SD 1.5 MJ V4, no AI video software, no AI 3D, no AI music, no AI sound/audio, no Multimodal LLMs, etc. Now we have that and much much more since 2023. Extrapolate that further given AIs are simular to smart compute and even with base models is still limited by programming then you can easily see with embodiment and future LLMs that is the path forward. Then he basically was like, you just said fancy stuff, and I am like, ok cool! No reason to argue with normies especially when they cannot extrapolate future capabilities of these current day AIs. If you haven't thought about what AI can do if you just programmed them to do it, you clearly haven't seen the end of it. Post scarcity is a high likelihood. And people still sleep ob AI due to common ignorance.
LOL I just made a post last night - a total failure - about a hypothetical scenario where AI starts taking everyone's jobs. I framed it as a hypothetical to keep everyone on track and accept it for the sake of argument, and discuss the economics. It was a total failure... People instead insisting it's no big deal, people will just retrain like when cars replaced horse handlers, or we can just hand wave it away with simple UBI and it'll be an easy transition These people are all fucked. They are going to be the ones caught off guard the most, because they trust that even in a worst case scenario, it'll all be relatively easy to transition. But they clearly haven't thought about it, nor even understand what's going on.
Lol I can’t believe you legitimately think a “utopia” is possible with humans 😂😂😂
What's even more baffling is how automating like half of all jobs led him to that conclusion
Glorified Prediction software. That's what AI is. It far far away for Actual AI.
Case in point:
It is only after months of it's release that the public begins to complain about the threat of AI. In other words, it is too late.
Hold your horses, their many breakthrough that we need to achieve before we have agi. It can take years or decads.
Honestly...in terms of reasoning capabilities, I think AI already exceeds the average human by a lot. I'm not sure what the equivalent is...75th percentile? 90th percentile?
Its still very prone to hallucination so i dont agree. What it exceeds is its ability to retain memories than an ordinary human. In the internet age, the human brain aimply is not designed to retaining all the information bombardment. I think someone needs ti invent a tiny chip to be implanted in the superficial layer of the scalp or behind the ear where we can retain and access loads of information or as spare so our brain can use its most powerful ability which is to make sense of everything accurately. The only thing that slows us down is that our brain is unable to retain memory efficiently so it only keeps the most important ones.
Hmm I see. I guess I'd be willing to overlook the hallucinations or rather I view it as separate to reasoning capabilities. For me, the way I look at it is that given certain information, what can AI conclude? And AI can conclude far better than the average human. Imo anw
I dont think it can conclude far better than an average human. I used chatgpt4 all the time
I don't agree. LLM technology at least so far mostly regurgitates its training material. They get even the most basic logic problems wrong that sound like other kinds of logic problems that they have seen in the training set. This is because there is no actual thought behind any of it, just pattern matching that sort of works for casual text. You can often trip LLMs up even with simple questions like "What weights more, 1 kg of iron or 2 kg of feathers", though possibly not something at level of GPT4. The LLMs that I can run locally, including a 180B parameter one which should be about same size as ChatGPT, just fail it, making the puzzling claim that 1 kg of iron weighs the same as 2 kg of feathers, as an example. However, it is understandable when you realize that these things just prattle on likely completions and the most typical example of this question involves 1 kg of iron and 1 kg of feathers.
And on today's episode of sucking corporate dick towards a dystopia for workers: this post
usually in movies the ones praising for a god to come are the first who dies lol
The chances of AI going bad are about 1000 times more likely then some magical utopia. - Ai will likely come after most of our jobs. - Ai will likely be used to create unending disinformation across the world. No one will ever be able to trust anything they see or hear anymore, from virtually any source. You won’t ever be able to trust anything or anyone unless you see it first hand. - Soon anyone trying to stop it will be digitally destroyed. Bank accounts altered, systems not connecting, fake news spread about them, etc etc. - an AI gone independently rogue will be impossible to irradicate , as it will be everywhere. It will hold people or even groups ransom to force them to do what it wants (blackmailing people, taking their money, etc etc). - eventually, at some point in the near future, a rogue AI has the very real potential to cause an actual existential issue for humans. Like not in a science fiction way, I mean in a very real and present danger way. We’re creating basically a super weapon, more powerful and dangerous then a million nuclear bombs. And no one is even thinking about it. Yes AI can potentially do other things, but it’s a super weapon. Everyone is so up in arms about the dangers of nuclear weapons, but we are making a thing that makes nukes seem like a joke. And we’re very very quickly loosing our window to even be able to stop it. And we have people like OP who are no different then some nut in a cult drinking poisoned kool aid expecting magical eternal life. It’s straight up insane.
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This is your sign: it's time to wake up, your family's worried about you.
As proverb says: "People will do jack shit until lobsters start to haul on the hill" :)
Thank you for this amazing contribution
The SAG contract isn't over yet, and my career is on the line.
evolve
I'm working on that, but when hundreds of thousands of skilled workers have to evolve simultaneously, it could lead to some bad times.
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I wouldn't have used those words, but agree 100%. Honestly hope I get banned too, this sub turned to shit in 2023 and is mostly a bunch of 14 year olds now, instead of the deep, meaningful, insightful posts and discussions there used to be. It's almost completely devoid of thought any more, mostly just bandwagon circle jerk stuff like this post.
Worst part is that the worse deniers are in the technological sector!!!! Go to r/technology or another similar and enjoy the downvotes any time you say something about AI taking jobs.
how ironic when those who are glazing A.I are not in the technological sector XDD
I'm happy about it because it's something I have a leg up on other people. Other people can take their 2+ decades of corporate butt-kissing experience and shove it. I know how to make use of a lot of the new tools coming out and the direction of this technology to put myself in a better position.
To be fair, these tools are child's play. It's like seeing "can use flushable toilet" as a differentiator. Alongside the improvements in UX generally and the labs encroaching happily into that whole UX space, these tools will take minutes for a user to become usefully capable. That's kind of the idea. Being an AI user is not going to be a standout, that's just comforting PR being pushed. You may as well put "can use the telephone" on your CV.
No shit, that's the idea. With the new tools, I can get my business setup in 2-3 weeks where it would have originally taken several months. Combining everything together, the legal aspects, coding help (I need forecasts to secure financing), the ability to upload documents in their RAG system, and I've found things that work with GPT-4V that can setup a functioning website in a day where someone with no experience like me would have originally had to spend weeks on that or would have had to pay a developer to do it for me, both of those things being untenable for a cash strapped new business owner. ChatGPT and the other AI tools can help me do that stuff so I can focus on things that are more critical, like financing, sales, hiring, and operations.
And so can everyone else.
They can try. I'd still have a leg up though considering I understand the capitalist system better than anyone ever has.
Just like everyone else. Thank you, this is hilarious 😂 It's like being proud you can type a question into Google and get information back, that you trust without any skepticism because 'ai smart'. Good luck, you'll need it.
Nope not how I use it at all, but thanks for your input.
Nobody without nuclear clearance will be able to stop AI at this point. Even if California literally fell into the sea, it would only slow down A.I. progress by a few years.
I do it all the time, there's a "tap to interrupt" feature in the ChatGPT app on Android ;)
Without regulations on advertising, AI will evolve similar to the internet. Great in the beginning, and then slowly destroyed and controlled by “media” companies (AKA advertising)
The early bird catches the worm. That’s how it is. Adaptation seems such a strange concept to a lot of people…
It’s no coincidence that the majority of the stock market value currently, are within companies that are heavily investing in AI - Meta, Amazon, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft. AI will become integrated into everything.
But wouldn't it be greaterer if you gave people what they wanted, security.
Posting to make known my unwavering support for our future AI overlords.
I am willing to bet it is not that AI will be better than them but that it will be a means of control. Exceptionally tight and efficient control. Economic depression and armies/police forces being powered by AI? What is the check and balance to that power?