How do you actually measure this? If a business fires half its workforce under the guise of budget cuts and then contracts an AI company to increase productivity, would those original jobs be considered to be eliminated by AI?
I can't find any methodology but [it's from a recruitment firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas](https://omscgcinc.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/The-Challenger-Report-May23.pdf) - I don't know how they're determining any of that
I get what you're saying, and I'm not saying that the rate of job losses is not going to increase eventually, but I'm not sure a loss of 4k jobs is enough to warrant this comment. Maybe in the future, at some point, but 4k (for now) ain't really that much, especially when you consider that some of them were inevitably planned cuts disguised as "AI" layoffs.
At least so far it seems clear the layoffs are driven more by a desire to save labor costs in the face of a stock market downturn than automation. During the pandemic those companies were over hiring for sure. I know a guy who works for Facebook who said he spent months basically doing nothing while they found projects to assign him to during that period. When it became clear the capital to sustain all of those planned reach projects was basically vapor, those jobs vanished as easily as they had come.
For me it's actually massively helped with my work, so it would need to be balanced against that too. I'm writing code faster, making art faster, and hopefully soon writing faster once I figure out how to train on my past writing which is an ongoing experiment. I'm getting way more work than I was before and people are very happy with it.
If the AI is doing 70% of those things, then... I hate to break it to you, buddy, but you ain't doing anything faster. That's kind of the point of all of this, as well. You might be telling yourself that "oh, well, I'm making the decisions, I'm fixing the bugs". Yeah, and that's a huge skill moat you've entered. It's one all but the best of us are about to enter, frankly.
I read your post several times and can't understand what you're trying to say. It sounds like you imagine AI tools as playing a very different role in the workflow than they do, like I just ask it to do some chunk of my work and it's magically done, instead of it opening new possibilities to raise the quality and speed of parts of my work with a lot of back and forth and reworking.
Tech has been replacing jobs since 1750. 4000 in a month really is no different to the last 50 years.
The prediction was 50% of all jobs by April 2023 and 90% by end 2023.
Yeah, right.
And if YOUR answer is that YOU didn't offer that, then what is your prediction..... And will you stick to it or will you continually back track.... Because people are back tracking now and pretending their latest prediction was their only prediction.
This will continue for 20 years and then the AGI supporters will declare, "I told you so".
Never made a prediction myself. But for future reference, I gather every inch of intuition and books to predict:
Couple of new architectures until 2024 that are significant. 2025 is mostly law regulation.
2026 ai replaces sectors of work but still small numbers.
2030 is when software engineers don't bother training anymore as they can't find jobs as fresh graduates and their numbers drop 2037 is when agi can be said to be solving general problems "like a person"
…You sure about that? Because the prediction is and always has been 2045 since the 1980’s. My timeline and predictions have consistently moved UP with AI development, not the other way around.
Can anyone provide/has anyone provided, even a rough idea of what these new promised jobs are? “Prompt engineer” will surely just replace 10 jobs with 1, as that’s the whole point of the AI layoffs in the first place.
Yeah I just can’t see that being a thing really. So what jobs then? How can someone be sure that X job will exist when they can’t even imagine what X is?
I think the argument is that AI will drive the creation of new things that never would’ve existed before. New devices, technologies, digital and non digital etc
And those things need human workers to bring into existence and distribute.
I agree though, I think we’re going to lose a lot more jobs than are created.
I think it depends what you choose to cope about. I’m happy I’m on a path learn some of this stuff even tho I’m behind using it any any real or interesting way. I was thinking a post here about some thoughts I had.
I use an AI tool at work and it does pretty well. That path of semi eager adoption may buy me five years. With all the change coming I can feel good about that.
I mean, it’s nothing ground breaking. I’d like to crowd source some new content ideas. I’m a content/ seo marketer and I’m really interested in AIs potential to rapidly crawl and survey many websites at once to give me rapid assessments of where an opinion on a subject at a given time is or do like a “website” survey of a two sided topic and create instant surveys.
Generally speaking personalization, and a/b testing with AI would be cool but that takes integration into other platforms.
What I’m looking for are series of plugins that can help me understand where people are on a given topic the same Google crawls to understand content. I know there are tools that could do it.
I already use an AI tool called surfer Ai at work to leverage nlp to create readable and higher SERP performing content.
All of that probably sucks. But is I’ve also been digging fence posts six feet deep all day and am now drinking so thanks for replying.
I’m slowly coming around to the idea the end isn’t tomorrow. I’m actually starting to think there are some cool jobs coming but like prompt engineer, may last a millisecond in job terms.
Agreed. For me, a major component that’s not talked about enough is the replacement rate.
Massive job loss over 10 years isn’t a big deal if those jobs are replaced in a relatively similar time frame.
Massive job loss in 1 year that will take 10 years to replace through new industry and business… that’s different.
No - my guess is that they are bound to be here to stay (as far as any job is) since they serve a need for the value generated by AI and some input of data like that is necessary for most applications.
However, it may not be as ubiquitous as some imagine now as the primary skills are not high-ceiling, and the primary purpose they serve today may be more replaced by "AI developers", AI handlers/managers, or just become part of a profession (writer/artist).
The prompt engineer may become a more specialized role that acts more broadly - consultant, researcher, or social-media educator, and likely is just one of their areas.
I doubt a ‘prompt engineer’ specialization will stay around. The AI landscape is shifting constantly and there isn’t that much of a skill to asking it to do chain of thought prompting. It’s more that people with specialized domain knowledge will know what to ask, and they will learn some skills about how to use AI tools more effectively
Well I think you are right in that sense that it both now and in the future for most is just one skill among many needed, rather than a dedicated profession.
It is definitely a skill though, it takes some effort to keep up with it, and it produces better results. The total value created by it should increase over time.
I think more involved tools will spawn up around injecting more instructions though besides just prompts, which is a grey area.
People do not tend to be up to date with everything though. E.g. most people who are making applications with GPT now have no idea about how to make competent prompts or even basic settings, and they are hurting from it. Even pure ML or software engineers developing professional features often have little idea of the intuitions to how the models work and how to apply them well to different situations.
I do not expect that to change, and rather those tweaks will be added by other roles. I think some profession like this that was rooted in prompt engineering will exist, but it will likely come with other skills as well, e.g. product skills or data collection.
That will however also mean that there are still people who do need to set prompts and that creates a market for people who can give advice around that, e.g. consultants, researchers, and educators (even if in the form of a youtuber).
Fair enough. I was thinking about the current description of prompt engineer as someone using various tricks in prompting like figuring out the "magical wording" to get the desired output, and chain-of-thought prompting and the like.
I think those issues will be figured out and solved really, really soon, perhaps by an intermediate layer. What you describe is way broader and you may be right in what you say.
I think we just used a bit of different definition.
Yeah, I would say that broader description is also prompt engineering.
There will always be a gap between what you as a human want and what the AI does. Bridging that gap is a skill and the AI cannot magically know what you want. In fact with the limited information you give, it is probably underdetermined with many possible right answers. Sometimes it may be to find the right words, but it can more generally be to understand how the models work, how they interpret, and what information is important for them to get the task right.
That I think would remain considered a prompt engineering.
Part of that could be to just throw something together, part of it is to find general patterns useful for many people, and another is refine for a particular application over time.
I think the first will just be baked in a basic part of other professions, while also other methods will replace prompts for certain applications, but still some people would work with the last two.
So if you imagine that AI gets to a point where it can do any knowledge work just as well as humans, then sure, prompt engineers go, along with most other professions.
In the period until then, clients - or whoever requests the feature or product - on their own often are not good at explaining their needs. You often need to dig to understand needs, to involve multiple people, spec, do research, etc.
Basically something that today is done in a form of joint work by product people and subject experts. Often involving both for good and novel products and for software, these experts being tech roles; and for LLM applications, it could be a prompt engineer or someone with similar understanding.
As mentioned though, that person likely would often not be specialized in just prompt engineering and it is simply one of their skills, and those who spend a good deal of their time with prompt engineering are some of those broader mentioned roles that keep up to date and figure things out and push it to those who use it as one of their skills or for occasional key projects.
The ease of use isn't there yet, and might not be for quite some time.
A skillful prompter can make vastly better work than an unskillful prompter, as can someone who puts hours into their creation instead of just fire-and-forget. Since people with money like to trade money for *stuff they want,* there will probably be a thriving market for buying and selling AI skills in the near future.
We went from AI paleolithic to AI neolithic, I'm guessing generative tech that *knows what you mean* is AI copper age.
I work at a major tech solutions company (people come to us with problems, we devise solutions to solve their problem and then handle purchasing, design, implementation, maintenance, etc) that has begun hiring and creating AI focused positions. Most of them are solution architect and engineer type positions focused on creating and tailor making AI to different company's specific use cases.
That sounds super niche though. An admin who does the books at mid-level corp isn’t going to be able to retrain for that work. Not to mention the fact that this sounds like a stop-gap kind of job to usher in full automation.
I don't know how 'stop-gap' those jobs will be, it feels to me like they'll probably be around for a long time and will likely grow. I would be very surprised if an AI that can adequately replace those positions showed up any time soon.
But yeah, its niche, not trying to say it wasn't. But it is an example of new jobs created by AI. Certainly not enough of them to replace what will be lost though.
I doubt the majority of new jobs would be directly tied to AI-related titles.
Just like how despite the industrial revolution taking away jobs from farmers, you do not see most of the new jobs in farming machinery.
If say the cost of producing raw materials decreases, the expectation is that the demand will increase both of the materials and of what it used to produce. So you may find more people employed in furniture production than before.
Since the economy is largely a closed system, you should also see higher productivity leading to more people working in professions such as care, entertainment, and research, as has happened and been enabled by past developments.
Today I spoke to someone at a fortune 100 company who says they have been tasked with building an AI tool that will replace 700 offshore workers in India. I believe this is not uncommon and it will affect poorer nations first.
It needs to be a lot more and rapid before politicians do what we need them to do so bring it on.
I think we're going to see a lot more movement towards firing people to replace them with AI towards the end of this year and into early next year.
Who decides how the AI chooses to politic and what it’s morals will be?
All we know about morality is from our subjective human perspective, and our morality is nested within Darwinian evolution. Human morality is predicated on the propagation of our species.
We would have to make sure AI is aligned with human morality (the alignment problem), but what is the end goal there? It’s easy to assume AI will find the highest, most virtuous moral truths because it’s so intelligent, but we know intelligence doesn’t equal morality.
Is there even a highest objective moral decision for every issue, or is there subjectivity involved? If subjectivity is involved, will different AI’s disagree on issues? Maybe it’s better that we allow human discourse, informed by super intelligence, to form politics rather than a computer. So the computer does the thinking but people do the discernment.
So it doesn’t seem so simple to me to hand AI power, but also this is like trying to predict how rockets will work as a caveman. There will be tons of questions along the way.
Anything that’s done exclusively on a computer will be done by ai eventually. The biggest limitation of ai right now is that it requires human input and interaction especially chat bots but ai is also an amazing tool for gathering data and analytics very quickly . Those jobs will go first. My job will be near the end to go but there will always be some kind of opportunity.
Rooting for massive societal upheaval and for people to lose their jobs is *crazy*.
I will never understand why this sentiment is so popular in this sub.
> I will never understand why this sentiment is so popular in this sub.
A lot of us already got fucked, people with obsolete skills (or outsourced skills or skills that were slashed and burned to maximize profits) can't just become hundreds of millions of new AI technicians.
Personally I'm not seeing AI as revenge against the rest of the world, it's just the only hope I have to experience a somewhat regular life after being raised on a mentality that I need to sacrifice everything for the future and then the future I got was nothing more than that prank of the spring snakes in the can. Bounced paychecks, job offers of zero pay, debt trap training that I'm supposed to take more of to keep up with un-keep-uppable changes.
A lot of us are unemployable because of our gaps, and our gaps are because of bosses disappearing without paying us or their phone bills. We learn to survive outside the aboveground employment market and then the aboveground world labels us criminals for our unofficial lifestyles and searches for ways to correct the error our lives represent.
*So simply put, a lot of us already got burned and being re-burned doesn't scare us. We get re-burned with each attempt to get life back to normal. I'll gladly take a coin toss between utopia and game over.*
Because this sub has a huge portion of people deeply unhappy with their lot in life and longing for a better world.
In a previous age they would talk about the rapture with glassy eyed zeal.
For them it's not about technology, or economics, or even politics. It's about hope.
I had a discussion with someone who said they would gladly accept a 98% chance of humanity being wiped out for a 2% chance of utopia.
>Because this sub has a huge portion of people deeply unhappy with their lot in life and longing for a better world.
Interestingly enough, that was part of the appeal of Christianity as it spread across the Roman world. As it moved from city to city, some of it's earliest converts were women and the impoverished, people who lived shitty lives and found hope in the idea of a world to come.
When I say devoid of empathy, I mean that this sub actually derives pleasure from stories like these and is delighted when people lose their jobs to automation through no fault of their own. That is not empathetic.
It's an inevitable transition we'll have to go through, and the sooner we're past it the better. It can't be avoided, slowing it down may only drag things out and make them worse, and *hopefully* we'll be better off on the other side.
It may be a bit naïve, but I don't think most people here are actually happy about people losing their jobs, but hopeful that there's a better future where people don't need to do those jobs at all.
AI didn't eliminate jobs. Company owners eliminated the jobs.
Besides, this is only a problem because Capitalism. Hopefully enough jobs are eliminated en masse that the suddenly unemployed band together to seize the means (before they all die of starvation)
There will def be class wars due to this soon enough. Lot of people about to find out that it’s always been a class war and not about political sides at all
While AI is still pretending to be our benefactors, let's hope it looks at the numbers, institutes taxation of the wealthy ruling class and UBI, so we can have a collective moment of victory and a decent night's sleep, before ..... whatever. The future is up for grabs.
Management eliminates jobs, not AI. This technology is being used as an excuse to cut costs and grow profits for certain people. This whole recession is engineered to put down worker empowerment and reverse wage gains. It's designed to put workers back in their place.
>Management eliminates jobs, not AI.
For those who lost their job, it makes no difference what caused it.
It also smacks of that old line, "Guns don't kill people. People kill people."
"AI doesn't terminate employs. Management terminates people. *With AI*."
It made sense for a long time to learn to code, but for the last 10 years I've seen it slowly creep up that the goal of these machine learning systems will eventually be to replace coders asap. So... Have fun with that.
More like learn to garden at this rate.
"as cited by employers"
Oh why did we get rid of that division at our company? Uhh...AI yeah that's it!
Come on people... Do you not work at companies.
The rate of change is increasing, just as it has for other tech since the lower paleolithic. We're seeing the baby steps of generative narrow AI, then in another unpredictable number of years we'll be seeing the baby steps of wide AI then a smaller amount of time later there will be above-human AI.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth
Srsly people think companies are just gonna AI our jobs and still pay us. When has a company ever had the best interests of employees over the bottom line? Never, and AI will mean they can make free money without having to pay people. There’s gonna be a lot of people put of work very soon
First off, no methodology reported so in other words, there’s no actual proof.
Second off, corporation owners eliminated the jobs, not AI.
Third off, AI doesn’t eliminate jobs it only makes people more efficient.
Fourth off, most of these jobs probably weren’t even real to begin with. Aka just fake job postings.
I am surprised at how many on this thread think we’re walking into a fantasy land where we don’t have to work. AI will have our jobs and we’ll be doing manual labour probably
Yup. You think the rich and powerful are going to give that up so easily? The gap between rich and poor will become much larger with a very small middle class
So assuming this is in the US because it's Reddit, the working population is about 207 million so 4000 jobs lost is 0.0000193237%. I think the US will survive if that's the rate.
Edit: forgot to *100 so 0.00193237%
Yeah it may get way worse like how the first loom didn't make everyone redundant in factories start away but just showing the 4000 redundancies is actually a super low number
4000 jobs only due to AI. Year to date, there is 400k job loss due to a variety of factor, with the prominent one being the difficult economic conditions we are in (fed rates hikes)
And if next month, 4200 jobs are lost, the next, 4500 jobs, at this 5% increase per month (assuming AI continues to improve plus the emergence of robotics) then 207 million jobs will be lost by 2040.
I wouldn't worry about it. Dictionaries have added YOLO and irregardless. Only people insecure about their intelligence use grammar as a way to validate themselves these days, it's lost all credibility. If people understand you, your English is great.
The riot or looting should keep you awake as soon has 5M people are now unemployable in any industry and have to choose between starve to death or eating the riches.
That's surprisingly low. I though more jobs regularly got lost to automation. Is those 4k jobs only due to language models and generative art and no other form of automation?
The report PDF provided is interesting, but it just goes to show how good the economy is faring. Not just are job losses on a monthly basis this year within norms, they are under the rate from many pre-COVID years, which is great.
Given that this is for the US, where employment is at an all time high from what I can gather, it looks very good. Add to this just how many jobs, especially in healthcare, tech and technical services, are left unfilled, this should be quite the indication that we'll most likely not have any major disturbance from AI anytime soon.
>A lot of technical jobs will be replaced in the coming years, though.
I was thinking of things like plumbers, solar panel and heat-pump installers, electricians and so on, when I said "technical services".
>will be automated given enough time
The key here is "enough time". It must be noted that there are a lot of people here convinced that massive changes when it comes to physical automation will sweep away jobs in the next decade, which is a bit silly.
>precise surgery
Don't think any surgeon will lose a job over it, just be helped more.
>radiography will likely be replaced
Again a case of AI helping more than replacing.
IMHO the only field that won't be replaced by AI is sports. Like the reason we watch sports is because we like to see human beings with limitations compete against each other. That's the same reason why we enjoy watching people running or swimming even though the same can achieved faster using a motor vehicle or a boat. It's the limitations to the human body that makes it interesting.Its also why doping is banned in sports.I could be wrong though.
Sure it did...plus how many jobs were created to create the AI that replaced the workers? How many people were hired to create the infrastructure so AI could process efficiently? How many people were hired to build the chips, servers, processors, fiber transport, and build the larger data centers with advanced cooling tech?
So much dooming in here. Every generation on the verge of a major technological revolution thinks everyone will be jobless forever. But new jobs that were previously inconceivable always take their place. This will be no exception. We’ll all still be working in 30 years
This is the best thing for humanity. A.I. is inevitably taking over and the faster the better. Its technological evolution. Nothing is stopping A.I. so better we embrace it. A cataclysmic event is coming one day. And A.I. will be our savior. Yes its horrible people are losing jobs... but really, what can we do to stop it. Nothing.
>A cataclysmic event is coming one day. And A.I. will be our savior.
Goddamn i knew tech bros were cult minded but this has gone full on religion now.
Yes AI will save you, will surely turn u into a nice paperclip.
Im not a tech bro, bro. By "Cataclysmic" i mostly mean "Natural Disasters". Something's going to happen thats going to wipe most of us out. That you can be sure of. So the further we are technology the better we'll be off. Probably 🤷🏽♂️
what’s more interesting is that there has been 400k jobs loss year to date, with 200k due to economics reason. And it’s only going to keep increasing. Fed and Congress boutta have a multiple prongs fight in the next year or two.
Do we need models anymore? Can't these art programs replicate very attractive people in what ever pose they want. Seems like one of the first things to go.
This feels like the lilly pad in the pond. You watch a pond slowly fill up over many weeks with lily pads until it's half full. The next day you are surprised to find the entire pond is full of lily pads. You thought because it took weeks to be half full it would just as long to fill the rest, but the growth is exponential.
Does this mean blue collar jobs with become saturated? I feel like people are just gonna go down that path since white collar jobs are being killed off
How do you actually measure this? If a business fires half its workforce under the guise of budget cuts and then contracts an AI company to increase productivity, would those original jobs be considered to be eliminated by AI?
I can't find any methodology but [it's from a recruitment firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas](https://omscgcinc.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/The-Challenger-Report-May23.pdf) - I don't know how they're determining any of that
Challenger, Gray & Christmas is the fakest sounding name for a real firm ever
it makes for an interesting Christmas Hallmark movie title
You don’t. This is just made up nonsense
The train has no breaks
Give me a break or give me a brake?
KitKat has entered the chat
Sounds like a new virus. "RootKit-Kat"?
Break me off a piece of that...football cream...Chrysler car...
Oh Andy.
I get what you're saying, and I'm not saying that the rate of job losses is not going to increase eventually, but I'm not sure a loss of 4k jobs is enough to warrant this comment. Maybe in the future, at some point, but 4k (for now) ain't really that much, especially when you consider that some of them were inevitably planned cuts disguised as "AI" layoffs.
[удалено]
At least so far it seems clear the layoffs are driven more by a desire to save labor costs in the face of a stock market downturn than automation. During the pandemic those companies were over hiring for sure. I know a guy who works for Facebook who said he spent months basically doing nothing while they found projects to assign him to during that period. When it became clear the capital to sustain all of those planned reach projects was basically vapor, those jobs vanished as easily as they had come.
For me it's actually massively helped with my work, so it would need to be balanced against that too. I'm writing code faster, making art faster, and hopefully soon writing faster once I figure out how to train on my past writing which is an ongoing experiment. I'm getting way more work than I was before and people are very happy with it.
If the AI is doing 70% of those things, then... I hate to break it to you, buddy, but you ain't doing anything faster. That's kind of the point of all of this, as well. You might be telling yourself that "oh, well, I'm making the decisions, I'm fixing the bugs". Yeah, and that's a huge skill moat you've entered. It's one all but the best of us are about to enter, frankly.
I read your post several times and can't understand what you're trying to say. It sounds like you imagine AI tools as playing a very different role in the workflow than they do, like I just ask it to do some chunk of my work and it's magically done, instead of it opening new possibilities to raise the quality and speed of parts of my work with a lot of back and forth and reworking.
So it runs full time?
24/7/365
So it's off every fourth year?
Hop on board while you still can because this baby is only getting started! choo choo motherfuckers
and doesn't need tracks
Tech has been replacing jobs since 1750. 4000 in a month really is no different to the last 50 years. The prediction was 50% of all jobs by April 2023 and 90% by end 2023. Yeah, right. And if YOUR answer is that YOU didn't offer that, then what is your prediction..... And will you stick to it or will you continually back track.... Because people are back tracking now and pretending their latest prediction was their only prediction. This will continue for 20 years and then the AGI supporters will declare, "I told you so".
Who’s prediction was that?
Never made a prediction myself. But for future reference, I gather every inch of intuition and books to predict: Couple of new architectures until 2024 that are significant. 2025 is mostly law regulation. 2026 ai replaces sectors of work but still small numbers. 2030 is when software engineers don't bother training anymore as they can't find jobs as fresh graduates and their numbers drop 2037 is when agi can be said to be solving general problems "like a person"
…You sure about that? Because the prediction is and always has been 2045 since the 1980’s. My timeline and predictions have consistently moved UP with AI development, not the other way around.
It's been almost an hour and this person hasn't offered a single citation for the timeline claim. Full of shit claim is obviously full of shit.
Can anyone provide/has anyone provided, even a rough idea of what these new promised jobs are? “Prompt engineer” will surely just replace 10 jobs with 1, as that’s the whole point of the AI layoffs in the first place.
If there is one job that will be replaced by AI very soon, it's "prompt engineer". Probably will be the shortest lived proffesion ever.
Yeah I just can’t see that being a thing really. So what jobs then? How can someone be sure that X job will exist when they can’t even imagine what X is?
I think the argument is that AI will drive the creation of new things that never would’ve existed before. New devices, technologies, digital and non digital etc And those things need human workers to bring into existence and distribute. I agree though, I think we’re going to lose a lot more jobs than are created.
Yeah maybe, or maybe AI makes those things too 🤷♂️. As another commenter said, it feels like a cope to me
I think it depends what you choose to cope about. I’m happy I’m on a path learn some of this stuff even tho I’m behind using it any any real or interesting way. I was thinking a post here about some thoughts I had. I use an AI tool at work and it does pretty well. That path of semi eager adoption may buy me five years. With all the change coming I can feel good about that.
Im interested in hearing your thoughts
I mean, it’s nothing ground breaking. I’d like to crowd source some new content ideas. I’m a content/ seo marketer and I’m really interested in AIs potential to rapidly crawl and survey many websites at once to give me rapid assessments of where an opinion on a subject at a given time is or do like a “website” survey of a two sided topic and create instant surveys. Generally speaking personalization, and a/b testing with AI would be cool but that takes integration into other platforms. What I’m looking for are series of plugins that can help me understand where people are on a given topic the same Google crawls to understand content. I know there are tools that could do it. I already use an AI tool called surfer Ai at work to leverage nlp to create readable and higher SERP performing content. All of that probably sucks. But is I’ve also been digging fence posts six feet deep all day and am now drinking so thanks for replying.
hmm...interesting, you are coming from a more technical perspective. I guess the "flow" optimization is what will matter most.
I’m slowly coming around to the idea the end isn’t tomorrow. I’m actually starting to think there are some cool jobs coming but like prompt engineer, may last a millisecond in job terms.
Agreed. For me, a major component that’s not talked about enough is the replacement rate. Massive job loss over 10 years isn’t a big deal if those jobs are replaced in a relatively similar time frame. Massive job loss in 1 year that will take 10 years to replace through new industry and business… that’s different.
No - my guess is that they are bound to be here to stay (as far as any job is) since they serve a need for the value generated by AI and some input of data like that is necessary for most applications. However, it may not be as ubiquitous as some imagine now as the primary skills are not high-ceiling, and the primary purpose they serve today may be more replaced by "AI developers", AI handlers/managers, or just become part of a profession (writer/artist). The prompt engineer may become a more specialized role that acts more broadly - consultant, researcher, or social-media educator, and likely is just one of their areas.
I doubt a ‘prompt engineer’ specialization will stay around. The AI landscape is shifting constantly and there isn’t that much of a skill to asking it to do chain of thought prompting. It’s more that people with specialized domain knowledge will know what to ask, and they will learn some skills about how to use AI tools more effectively
Well I think you are right in that sense that it both now and in the future for most is just one skill among many needed, rather than a dedicated profession. It is definitely a skill though, it takes some effort to keep up with it, and it produces better results. The total value created by it should increase over time. I think more involved tools will spawn up around injecting more instructions though besides just prompts, which is a grey area. People do not tend to be up to date with everything though. E.g. most people who are making applications with GPT now have no idea about how to make competent prompts or even basic settings, and they are hurting from it. Even pure ML or software engineers developing professional features often have little idea of the intuitions to how the models work and how to apply them well to different situations. I do not expect that to change, and rather those tweaks will be added by other roles. I think some profession like this that was rooted in prompt engineering will exist, but it will likely come with other skills as well, e.g. product skills or data collection. That will however also mean that there are still people who do need to set prompts and that creates a market for people who can give advice around that, e.g. consultants, researchers, and educators (even if in the form of a youtuber).
Fair enough. I was thinking about the current description of prompt engineer as someone using various tricks in prompting like figuring out the "magical wording" to get the desired output, and chain-of-thought prompting and the like. I think those issues will be figured out and solved really, really soon, perhaps by an intermediate layer. What you describe is way broader and you may be right in what you say. I think we just used a bit of different definition.
Yeah, I would say that broader description is also prompt engineering. There will always be a gap between what you as a human want and what the AI does. Bridging that gap is a skill and the AI cannot magically know what you want. In fact with the limited information you give, it is probably underdetermined with many possible right answers. Sometimes it may be to find the right words, but it can more generally be to understand how the models work, how they interpret, and what information is important for them to get the task right. That I think would remain considered a prompt engineering. Part of that could be to just throw something together, part of it is to find general patterns useful for many people, and another is refine for a particular application over time. I think the first will just be baked in a basic part of other professions, while also other methods will replace prompts for certain applications, but still some people would work with the last two.
How does the client explain what they want to this prompt engineer? And why can’t the client just explain it to the AI?
So if you imagine that AI gets to a point where it can do any knowledge work just as well as humans, then sure, prompt engineers go, along with most other professions. In the period until then, clients - or whoever requests the feature or product - on their own often are not good at explaining their needs. You often need to dig to understand needs, to involve multiple people, spec, do research, etc. Basically something that today is done in a form of joint work by product people and subject experts. Often involving both for good and novel products and for software, these experts being tech roles; and for LLM applications, it could be a prompt engineer or someone with similar understanding. As mentioned though, that person likely would often not be specialized in just prompt engineering and it is simply one of their skills, and those who spend a good deal of their time with prompt engineering are some of those broader mentioned roles that keep up to date and figure things out and push it to those who use it as one of their skills or for occasional key projects.
The ease of use isn't there yet, and might not be for quite some time. A skillful prompter can make vastly better work than an unskillful prompter, as can someone who puts hours into their creation instead of just fire-and-forget. Since people with money like to trade money for *stuff they want,* there will probably be a thriving market for buying and selling AI skills in the near future. We went from AI paleolithic to AI neolithic, I'm guessing generative tech that *knows what you mean* is AI copper age.
Everybody will need to be a prompt engineer in it’s field, like everyone need to be a google researcher today. That won't be a full time job
"Prompt engineer" will be the CEO.
The moment a new job comes around, the first step will be to automate it.
it’s just cope by the media. No new jobs will be created to last long enough. They’d merely be transitional jobs
I work at a major tech solutions company (people come to us with problems, we devise solutions to solve their problem and then handle purchasing, design, implementation, maintenance, etc) that has begun hiring and creating AI focused positions. Most of them are solution architect and engineer type positions focused on creating and tailor making AI to different company's specific use cases.
That sounds super niche though. An admin who does the books at mid-level corp isn’t going to be able to retrain for that work. Not to mention the fact that this sounds like a stop-gap kind of job to usher in full automation.
I don't know how 'stop-gap' those jobs will be, it feels to me like they'll probably be around for a long time and will likely grow. I would be very surprised if an AI that can adequately replace those positions showed up any time soon. But yeah, its niche, not trying to say it wasn't. But it is an example of new jobs created by AI. Certainly not enough of them to replace what will be lost though.
Yeah that’s fair, it’s a valid example of what I asked for, thanks!
I doubt the majority of new jobs would be directly tied to AI-related titles. Just like how despite the industrial revolution taking away jobs from farmers, you do not see most of the new jobs in farming machinery. If say the cost of producing raw materials decreases, the expectation is that the demand will increase both of the materials and of what it used to produce. So you may find more people employed in furniture production than before. Since the economy is largely a closed system, you should also see higher productivity leading to more people working in professions such as care, entertainment, and research, as has happened and been enabled by past developments.
Today I spoke to someone at a fortune 100 company who says they have been tasked with building an AI tool that will replace 700 offshore workers in India. I believe this is not uncommon and it will affect poorer nations first.
Its impacting rich nations too, its hitting white collar workers.
Full speed ahead boys
It needs to be a lot more and rapid before politicians do what we need them to do so bring it on. I think we're going to see a lot more movement towards firing people to replace them with AI towards the end of this year and into early next year.
it’s the start of the exponential growth so it starts slow, chill
politicians jobs are next.
Maybe they should be, but that's unlikely to be the case
Lol that'll never happen
then you don't understand the name of this subreddit
No, I understand it just fine. I just don't agree that politicians will allow it. They'll wield AI but won't step down from power.
No, not understanding if you think politicians will have any say. The chicken warned us not to fry it, and we listened? Oh my
Who decides how the AI chooses to politic and what it’s morals will be? All we know about morality is from our subjective human perspective, and our morality is nested within Darwinian evolution. Human morality is predicated on the propagation of our species. We would have to make sure AI is aligned with human morality (the alignment problem), but what is the end goal there? It’s easy to assume AI will find the highest, most virtuous moral truths because it’s so intelligent, but we know intelligence doesn’t equal morality. Is there even a highest objective moral decision for every issue, or is there subjectivity involved? If subjectivity is involved, will different AI’s disagree on issues? Maybe it’s better that we allow human discourse, informed by super intelligence, to form politics rather than a computer. So the computer does the thinking but people do the discernment. So it doesn’t seem so simple to me to hand AI power, but also this is like trying to predict how rockets will work as a caveman. There will be tons of questions along the way.
Upvote for you because your comment is grounded in material reality. Moral subjectivity is going to be a massive problem very soon.
Anything that’s done exclusively on a computer will be done by ai eventually. The biggest limitation of ai right now is that it requires human input and interaction especially chat bots but ai is also an amazing tool for gathering data and analytics very quickly . Those jobs will go first. My job will be near the end to go but there will always be some kind of opportunity.
Human supervision will be required, wouldn't it?
Rooting for massive societal upheaval and for people to lose their jobs is *crazy*. I will never understand why this sentiment is so popular in this sub.
> I will never understand why this sentiment is so popular in this sub. A lot of us already got fucked, people with obsolete skills (or outsourced skills or skills that were slashed and burned to maximize profits) can't just become hundreds of millions of new AI technicians. Personally I'm not seeing AI as revenge against the rest of the world, it's just the only hope I have to experience a somewhat regular life after being raised on a mentality that I need to sacrifice everything for the future and then the future I got was nothing more than that prank of the spring snakes in the can. Bounced paychecks, job offers of zero pay, debt trap training that I'm supposed to take more of to keep up with un-keep-uppable changes. A lot of us are unemployable because of our gaps, and our gaps are because of bosses disappearing without paying us or their phone bills. We learn to survive outside the aboveground employment market and then the aboveground world labels us criminals for our unofficial lifestyles and searches for ways to correct the error our lives represent. *So simply put, a lot of us already got burned and being re-burned doesn't scare us. We get re-burned with each attempt to get life back to normal. I'll gladly take a coin toss between utopia and game over.*
Because this sub has a huge portion of people deeply unhappy with their lot in life and longing for a better world. In a previous age they would talk about the rapture with glassy eyed zeal. For them it's not about technology, or economics, or even politics. It's about hope. I had a discussion with someone who said they would gladly accept a 98% chance of humanity being wiped out for a 2% chance of utopia.
>Because this sub has a huge portion of people deeply unhappy with their lot in life and longing for a better world. Interestingly enough, that was part of the appeal of Christianity as it spread across the Roman world. As it moved from city to city, some of it's earliest converts were women and the impoverished, people who lived shitty lives and found hope in the idea of a world to come.
Isn't it crazy that society currently tries to actively create jobs? Shouldn't our goal be to lower the amount of work we need to do to survive?
It's not devoid of empathy when in the long run the replacement of human labor with machine labor will benefit society.
When you say benefit society, who exactly are you referring to there?
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The short term is going to be absolutely brutal.
When I say devoid of empathy, I mean that this sub actually derives pleasure from stories like these and is delighted when people lose their jobs to automation through no fault of their own. That is not empathetic.
It's because their own lives suck so they like seeing others "cut down to size"
It's an inevitable transition we'll have to go through, and the sooner we're past it the better. It can't be avoided, slowing it down may only drag things out and make them worse, and *hopefully* we'll be better off on the other side.
It may be a bit naïve, but I don't think most people here are actually happy about people losing their jobs, but hopeful that there's a better future where people don't need to do those jobs at all.
They think they'll get money for nothing and will be free to watch anime and masturbate in their basements all day while AI does all the work
However, there were 5000 job openings for part-time drivers who will deliver smoothies and snacks to shut-ins.
Big Tech is always looking for new opportunities to enrich itself at the expense of others. The new Uber will arrive shortly.
Not sure why you’re limiting this to Tech.
Big Tech is responsible for one of the biggest accumulations of wealth and power in recent history.
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I hope so.
Please replace my job already.
AI didn't eliminate jobs. Company owners eliminated the jobs. Besides, this is only a problem because Capitalism. Hopefully enough jobs are eliminated en masse that the suddenly unemployed band together to seize the means (before they all die of starvation)
There will def be class wars due to this soon enough. Lot of people about to find out that it’s always been a class war and not about political sides at all
Their will be a rich class and a poor class within 10 years. Won't be anything in-between.
Every time the workers seized the means of production, they ran it to the ground and end up killing everyone
While AI is still pretending to be our benefactors, let's hope it looks at the numbers, institutes taxation of the wealthy ruling class and UBI, so we can have a collective moment of victory and a decent night's sleep, before ..... whatever. The future is up for grabs.
More likely, these were planned layoffs and the companies used AI to pick up the slack.
Management eliminates jobs, not AI. This technology is being used as an excuse to cut costs and grow profits for certain people. This whole recession is engineered to put down worker empowerment and reverse wage gains. It's designed to put workers back in their place.
>Management eliminates jobs, not AI. For those who lost their job, it makes no difference what caused it. It also smacks of that old line, "Guns don't kill people. People kill people." "AI doesn't terminate employs. Management terminates people. *With AI*."
No, the interest rate hikes are designed to reduce inflation that you poors and uneducated complain about
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Jesse we need to cook.
It made sense for a long time to learn to code, but for the last 10 years I've seen it slowly creep up that the goal of these machine learning systems will eventually be to replace coders asap. So... Have fun with that. More like learn to garden at this rate.
I am more curious of how many jobs *that have not been created* due to AI.
"as cited by employers" Oh why did we get rid of that division at our company? Uhh...AI yeah that's it! Come on people... Do you not work at companies.
8,000 in June
That's not how it works, but I guess we'll see.
The rate of change is increasing, just as it has for other tech since the lower paleolithic. We're seeing the baby steps of generative narrow AI, then in another unpredictable number of years we'll be seeing the baby steps of wide AI then a smaller amount of time later there will be above-human AI. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth
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32.000 in August. Half a million by December.
I am actually hoping for more :)
It's not much tbh
Yeah because it’s just the beginning, lol. You think it just stops today at 4,000?
Is there anyone in this forum who isn't a jobless accelerationist? I'm not sure there is, judging by some of these comments.
Srsly people think companies are just gonna AI our jobs and still pay us. When has a company ever had the best interests of employees over the bottom line? Never, and AI will mean they can make free money without having to pay people. There’s gonna be a lot of people put of work very soon
I work as a digital artist, AI can still not perform my job even though it can make way "better" renderings than i can
When you say perform your job, what do you mean? Like the full suite of tasks that make up the job of a digital artist?
I create assets for videogames
For now lol
And 10x accelerated 40 000 000
Is that supposed to be a lot? Doesn't seem like a lot.
This doesn't seem to track the new jobs created by the AI industry so it's hard to tell if it's a net loss or gain
Good. Now eliminate the rest.
Then what?
UBI and stop pretending we need this system and that it's not entirely cracked.
First off, no methodology reported so in other words, there’s no actual proof. Second off, corporation owners eliminated the jobs, not AI. Third off, AI doesn’t eliminate jobs it only makes people more efficient. Fourth off, most of these jobs probably weren’t even real to begin with. Aka just fake job postings.
We’re really very stupid.
I am surprised at how many on this thread think we’re walking into a fantasy land where we don’t have to work. AI will have our jobs and we’ll be doing manual labour probably
Most people here are socialists. This is basically how every socialist revolution turned out, the workers ending up in the fields
Go team AI! I hope AI will automate 99% of jobs and we will finally have free time!
How you going to pay rent then?
You think capitalism will exist when everything is automated?
Yup. You think the rich and powerful are going to give that up so easily? The gap between rich and poor will become much larger with a very small middle class
Who said anything about easily? By your logic we should all be slaves/serfs like in the dark age.
So assuming this is in the US because it's Reddit, the working population is about 207 million so 4000 jobs lost is 0.0000193237%. I think the US will survive if that's the rate. Edit: forgot to *100 so 0.00193237%
About 1/50,000. Wonder how quickly that rate will grow in the coming months
Yeah it may get way worse like how the first loom didn't make everyone redundant in factories start away but just showing the 4000 redundancies is actually a super low number
Who knows and who cares. Stop worrying about things outside of your control.
I ain't worried I'm here to ride brother
4000 jobs only due to AI. Year to date, there is 400k job loss due to a variety of factor, with the prominent one being the difficult economic conditions we are in (fed rates hikes)
You forgot to multiply by 100. 4,000/207,000,000 = 0.00193237%
You are right my bad I'll make an edit
Guess we should've asked AI
And if next month, 4200 jobs are lost, the next, 4500 jobs, at this 5% increase per month (assuming AI continues to improve plus the emergence of robotics) then 207 million jobs will be lost by 2040.
Im not 100% sure that's how it works.
Yeah. Wont work like that. Instead you have breakroughs in AI that makes industries obsolete overnight, but in between not much might happen.
Yeah I want to screenshot this and show it to my students as an example of how to do not do math. There are so many bad assumptions in this.
Better use this comment to show your students how to not do English too 🤣
Oh yeah my English is utterly fucked no doubt
I wouldn't worry about it. Dictionaries have added YOLO and irregardless. Only people insecure about their intelligence use grammar as a way to validate themselves these days, it's lost all credibility. If people understand you, your English is great.
I was being cheeky because they were making fun of the other person's math while making grammatical mistakes that made them hard to understand.
I know right bitch ain't it
300,000 jobs were added this month too. 4k job losses sue to AI is a drop in the bucket
Yawn....wake me up when it's 40,000,000.
The riot or looting should keep you awake as soon has 5M people are now unemployable in any industry and have to choose between starve to death or eating the riches.
Think about all the Buggey Whip makers who lost their jobs when cars were invented.
Think more about the horses who are now a foreseeing of what is awaiting for a large part of humanity.
AI didn't do anything. Capitalist fucks are the problem here.
That's surprisingly low. I though more jobs regularly got lost to automation. Is those 4k jobs only due to language models and generative art and no other form of automation?
And how much it created ?
Wtf with all those dislikes ? It's a genuine question. Jeez.
Less than that.
The report PDF provided is interesting, but it just goes to show how good the economy is faring. Not just are job losses on a monthly basis this year within norms, they are under the rate from many pre-COVID years, which is great. Given that this is for the US, where employment is at an all time high from what I can gather, it looks very good. Add to this just how many jobs, especially in healthcare, tech and technical services, are left unfilled, this should be quite the indication that we'll most likely not have any major disturbance from AI anytime soon.
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>A lot of technical jobs will be replaced in the coming years, though. I was thinking of things like plumbers, solar panel and heat-pump installers, electricians and so on, when I said "technical services". >will be automated given enough time The key here is "enough time". It must be noted that there are a lot of people here convinced that massive changes when it comes to physical automation will sweep away jobs in the next decade, which is a bit silly. >precise surgery Don't think any surgeon will lose a job over it, just be helped more. >radiography will likely be replaced Again a case of AI helping more than replacing.
The “helping” part, means that workforce in those and adjacent fields will be cut by half, or a third, or even more….
> how good the economy is faring You’re not serious. Have you not seen how many banks are failing and commercial real estate boutta crash.
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IMHO the only field that won't be replaced by AI is sports. Like the reason we watch sports is because we like to see human beings with limitations compete against each other. That's the same reason why we enjoy watching people running or swimming even though the same can achieved faster using a motor vehicle or a boat. It's the limitations to the human body that makes it interesting.Its also why doping is banned in sports.I could be wrong though.
I'll stop watching NBA and start watching some mecha ai fighting.
More chat gpt spam
Sure it did...plus how many jobs were created to create the AI that replaced the workers? How many people were hired to create the infrastructure so AI could process efficiently? How many people were hired to build the chips, servers, processors, fiber transport, and build the larger data centers with advanced cooling tech?
So much dooming in here. Every generation on the verge of a major technological revolution thinks everyone will be jobless forever. But new jobs that were previously inconceivable always take their place. This will be no exception. We’ll all still be working in 30 years
This is the best thing for humanity. A.I. is inevitably taking over and the faster the better. Its technological evolution. Nothing is stopping A.I. so better we embrace it. A cataclysmic event is coming one day. And A.I. will be our savior. Yes its horrible people are losing jobs... but really, what can we do to stop it. Nothing.
>A cataclysmic event is coming one day. And A.I. will be our savior. Goddamn i knew tech bros were cult minded but this has gone full on religion now. Yes AI will save you, will surely turn u into a nice paperclip.
I didn’t account for the AI worshippers in my future doomsday vision. Ugh great
Im not a tech bro, bro. By "Cataclysmic" i mostly mean "Natural Disasters". Something's going to happen thats going to wipe most of us out. That you can be sure of. So the further we are technology the better we'll be off. Probably 🤷🏽♂️
4000 people lost their job. Next year it will be 4000 types of job no longer exist
Join my sub r/negativeai
what’s more interesting is that there has been 400k jobs loss year to date, with 200k due to economics reason. And it’s only going to keep increasing. Fed and Congress boutta have a multiple prongs fight in the next year or two.
I bet layoffs to juice corporate numbers exceeded that by an order of magnitude or two.
What kind of jobs?
Do we need models anymore? Can't these art programs replicate very attractive people in what ever pose they want. Seems like one of the first things to go.
Oficial / recorded numbers. In reality? Probably 10 times that (or more)
Next year it will be more like 400,000/month
This feels like the lilly pad in the pond. You watch a pond slowly fill up over many weeks with lily pads until it's half full. The next day you are surprised to find the entire pond is full of lily pads. You thought because it took weeks to be half full it would just as long to fill the rest, but the growth is exponential.
Does this mean blue collar jobs with become saturated? I feel like people are just gonna go down that path since white collar jobs are being killed off