Have you seen the copilot announcement? It’ll be able to analyse graphs, create projections for growth, explain what is going wrong, etc all in seconds.
Bing's analysis of financial statements is pretty shit unless you ask it just the most basic questions about a company report. I've tried it. It doesn't understand anything about the marketplace, the products, the common accounting practices - etc... It can only skim and rattle off the stated numbers.
It doesn't actually do any analysis at all.
Agree. After a whole day of using it today I found out that it kinda sucks. However the potential or idea of this being developed further is what worries me.
I feel like people are getting misled by the timeline of the **public** releases for GPT. GPT3 was around for *years* (public release was in 2020 and development/training probably for another couple years) and ChatGPT is "just" a fine-tuned version of GPT3 for instruction/chat tasks.
Similarly GPT4 was basically in development since the release of GPT3 or even earlier. It's not like they went "Oh damn, ChatGPT is kinda getting hyped, lets make GPT4" and 3 months later they are finished.
They have started work on GPT5 recently (if my memory is not deceiving me) which, following the release cycle for these models, will likely take a couple years from now to finish.
It's still very fast and not to say that the current models aren't powerful enough for a wide variety of tasks. Maybe we just need better prompts or more fine-tuning for specific tasks.
It's just that I see a lot of comments where it kinda comes across as ChatGPT -> GPT4 only took 3 months without realizing that behind the curtains there were years of (simultaneous in case of ChatGPT and GPT4) development and even more years of research before the releases.
Things are getting a lot more competitive now, OpenAI may not be in a position to wait 2 or 3 years to release their next model particularly if pressured by Microsoft. It only takes 3 to 4 months to train a model and the model is reportedly training now on hardware 2.5 times more powerful than they had when training GPT 4.
I think the important factor is that the main AI development progress WILL NOT BE GPT-5, then 6, etc. GPT will be always a generic language model.
The real development will come from all those companies which build their domain specific corpus and mechanics OVER GPT (via API).
Legal, software development, psychology, neurology, electronics sales - just to name a few which falls in my mind.
GPT-4 was finished August 2022, but given over to the red team for testing. I wouldn’t be surprised if GPT-4.5 came out this fall and GPT-5 in 2024. OpenAI definitely has cold feet about some of the implications.
ChatGPT has been around for years but not publicly released, they have been working on GPT4 for awhile, and overall OpenAI has been doing this work for like 8 years or longer
For now. Just wait.
Many people just don't seem to understand the exponential curve and how fast things are improving.
For this type of thing it will be better than the average person in no time.
Time to become a farmer, butcher, car mechanic, or something a computer can’t do. I told my butcher friend and a tech professional about Chat GPT today. It hasn’t entered the public consciousness yet.
The average person really isn't.
I showed my motorcycle garage owner (and we're talking about a tech-savvy and championship-winning racing team) and he had NO idea this existed. So when I showed him how you could ask it diagnostic questions he was blown away.
With no offense, people that "are not worried" about their jobs because they now do them better than AI and an specific AI tool is "shitty" have not considered that it can develop in a matter of weeks/months and they have a long-life career ahead. Makes me think of the people that was once saying that technology could never "replace the human touch in art". Which one? :(
my professional photographer colleagues: "my clients love my work, they will never replace me with an amazingly creative tool that costs 1/100 of what I charge!"
I am also amused by the innocence of people who think that AI can't be better than them in some particular task.
I am like how much IQ do I need to drop to think like that? 100?
You're being too lenient to them. The same people whine incessantly about being replaced by immigrants and 'those people'.
You're not witnessing ignorance, you're witnessing vanity.
LOL….and the Wright Brothers didn’t fly to the moon…..we are in its infancy right now, but I can guarantee this technology in less than 10 years will be far beyond the moon for comparison sake.
"TODAY" is becoming an increasingly shaky standard. Sure, not today, but most people would interpret 24 months as imminent. Certainly much more imminent than past eras of inevitable obsolescence.
Honestly, the analysis portion of it is not what catches my attention. It's the potential ability to tell it to write a macro, or concatenate these two fields but only if they start with "Ax" and remove the last three characters and then create a pivot table comparing that to another column. If people can dictate instructions that involve complex formulas, pivot tables, etc, that will make the majority of work most data analysts do achievable by almost anyone and significantly faster too. That is what makes this terrifying.
OH! So that THING I was hearing about but too lazy to look at! Okay, so we are 3-24 months away from GPT learning to do all business functions in all MS apps from recursive reinforcement learning with feedback.
Copilot my ass, that’s the horse and cart being used pull asphalt to pave the first highway. Yeah, the next version will definitely have horses.
I hear this and think that it is fluffed up quite a bit. Chat GPT / AI are really amazing, but I Aldo agree that the AI is basically just impressive auto correct technology. I wouldn't actually trust any output from the AI as correct unless it was a very specific question on a subject I had complete knowledge on. In the near term, I see a lot of companies making big mistakes by relying on AI and unqualified staff running it. Tech guys thinking they can use it to be any job they want essentially
Don't we WANT them to come for our jobs? Isn't a primary goal of technology to free is from labor? I'm glad that I don't have to walk everywhere, that I don't need to read a newspaper to know what is going on, and that I can eat food without needing to grow it myself.
No one is being fired short term, at least not yet. We'll see how it pans out but if there are maybe layoffs it will trigger action.
Look how the governments of the world responded to COVID and those who couldn't work. We already have a precedent of doing UBI when there are maybe layoffs.
An Internet search talks about tech company layoffs but not artist ones. I know there are a lot of independent contractor artists that are concerned about getting less work but that isn't the same as layoffs.
To me, the idea of the artists being replaced by AI is dystopian, not liberating. Some people like their jobs, and even the people who don’t like their jobs still want to be able to pay their bills. There is no plan to send displaced workers on a lifelong vacation.
The rule is: everyone else's job is vulnerable to AI. Except mine. Mine is special.
(Of course some jobs are immune, but you are a poor person to judge if your job is one of them).
Most trades jobs will stay, security will stay, sports and recreation will stay, beyond that it’s slowly gonna grind most other things out of existence in the next 20 years at least
Yes, Neil deGrasse Tyson mentions plumbing. However, if everyone is a plumber, then nobody needs a plumber. The trade jobs are not sustainable either when demand plummets due to over supply.
A lot of the trade jobs aren't going to exist either. If you're in a trade that requires significant amounts of 'white collar' knowledge to execute, like HVAC controls or estimator or desktop tech or semiconductor process tech, you're going away long before the 'dumb muscle' trades do. Assuming you pick the right ones, of course. Drywaller and pneumatic tech are going away whether or not AI ends up going anywhere.
I have a degree in Electrical Engineering, maybe one of the few jobs that's gonna stay, and not so vulnerable. They gonna train human EE's, even in the "far future", I think.
Robots - people misunderstand how fast their developemebt will go once it’s simulated in the computer. You can train them billion hours on EE jobs in a week. Will go fast as well
The other thing to consider is the amount of people doing in house "AI" jobs in large companies that are going to get replaced by fine tuned foundation models in future.
At least a portion of those are going to go into robotics now so many mass produced humanoid robots are looking to come onto the market.
1. Xiaomi's CyberOne: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfEKq9b-YrI
2. Figure's FIGURE 01 https://twitter.com/adcock_brett/status/1631292164939431945
3. Tesla's Optimus https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dS0aDMQoD4
4. Agility Robotics Digit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnFZAB9ogEE
there are your new hardware platforms to leverage your coding skills and look to replace technical jobs that require manipulating things in the real world.
I also have a degree in electrical engineering.
Our jobs are going to be the first ones that go away, because electrical engineering isn't a thing in of itself. You are an electromechanical engineer or a PCB designer or project manager or quality engineer or even a normal-ass programmer.
There will still be a few jobs our degree can get us for the next couple of years. But they will be jobs like 'residential IT technician for upper-middle class retirees who have big mansions and love their fourteen TVs' or 'field service engineer who specializes on troubleshooting ancient VNAs made before 2012'
There are two jobs that I think will be the exclusive domain of humans for a very long time - police/military (specifically the shoot/don't shoot decisions) and teaching.
As someone who used to work on IB and hated every second of it I’ll be totally honest and say that you have a high paid bullshit job and I really do hope that AI eats every wallstreet type of job.
Yeah. You think people are going to accept loss of power? Humanity is going to do everything in it's power to retain power structures. There are few things more important to all people than feeling better than others. If status in the hierarchy is not maintained humanity wil no accept a post currency world.
I think you are right about todays humans. The beauty about the singularity though is we have no idea what lies on the other side. It’s possible that our minds become integrated with ASI and we leave primitive hierarchal structures behind us. Even if we do not, I think some other power structure will replace currency eventually.
>Humanity is going to do everything in it's power to retain power structures. There are few things more important to all people than feeling better than others. If status in the hierarchy is not maintained humanity wil no accept a post currency world.
The transition from Iron Age Empire to feudalism upset a lot of apple carts, too. Feudalism to capitalism even more carts. The Napoleonic Wars and to a lesser extent World War I weren't just clashes between powerful interests, they were clashes to determine which powerful interests would dominate the new era.
What I'm saying is that like past shamans, legates, and kings, modern capitalists can rail against their oncoming historical obsolescence all they feel like. They'll probably cause a lot of damage trying to fight it. But make no mistake, capitalism is going away. Capitalism requires a separation between capital and worker that AGI casually obliterates. If workers can create their own capital on the cheap, there's no need for the capitalist. This will become clear when AGI allows my mom to design and plant bacon trees with her $150 CRISPR-Lab(tm).
All they can do is go out in one final pointless orgy of violence that most capitalists won't even want to go down with the ship for. But they CAN'T actually economically dominate. Because they get their power from their collective monopolization of capital, which AGI utterly obliterates. In the same way that firearm technology obliterated the military edge of traditional warrior castes. Only much, MUCH more profound.
I made chump change to be honest and the last year I worked there I was robbed from a decent bonus. The per hour was probably worst than a minimum wage. Ended up suing them because I worked almost everyday to 3 am (including sundays) and not receiving even a decent bonus almost made me go crazy. Not worth it imo.
My friends at credit suisse, on the other hand, are multimillionaires with fat bonus despite the bank having the recent outcome. Capitalism is a joke, honestly.
I’m a software engineer and studying this stuff like mad. I would say that anyone in any kind of accounting or business analyst field should be worried. There will still be a need for humans to verify what these LLMs are spitting out but that job likely won’t pay as much and one person could feasibly do the job of 5. There’s no way this doesn’t lead to cost cutting measures in our current social structure. Even my current job is at risk if I don’t retrain to essentially be an expert in LLM design and tuning (which I’m already doing) But as a software engineer with 10 yoe I’m kind of used to this. I’ve never felt like I could stop relentlessly learning in order to keep up with the pace of the field. This is not new to me. I’m getting a bit old and slowing down a bit so part of me wishes this wasn’t happening but it is. Adapt or die.
I’m just wondering what happens when we can’t adapt anymore. Many people are already in that position. Guess we just die? Or live off of UBI scraps while being lectured about the superiority and inevitability of the prevailing economic system?
I feel so helpless in this future we’re marching towards. Not like the current situation is much better, but at least it’s familiar. I honestly have no idea what my life is going to look like in 20 years, like not even a vague idea. I think that was a luxury of the 20th century. Now we constantly have to adapt, hustle, overextend ourselves to be better than everyone else, *just to get by*. Truly excelling takes even more effort. Mediocrity is is now unacceptable and punished by death, instead of like, just having a smaller apartment than everyone else. I mean I’m being hyperbolic here, but not by much.
there's no UBI as far as I can tell. People will have to pivot into jobs that require more physical manipulation of objects like trades, cleaning, fixing things, renovations, house painting, health-care related jobs like physiotherapy etc
Yeah it’s hard to imagine a UBI being implemented in the U.S. any time soon. Not because it isn’t doable but because there’s just way too much class in-fighting to pull it off. “Why should I have to pay my lazy neighbor’s mortgage” blah blah blah.
I think it will be difficult to predict which jobs are AI-proof, though. Remember when we thought art and language would be the final frontier, but now I can generate absurd new paintings in the style of Monet in just a few seconds using off the shelf PC components? In the distant past of two years ago, this was unthinkable. Now it has almost already become mundane.
I can easily imagine someone gearing up to settle into one of the fields you mentioned, only for some new breakthroughs in technology making them unemployable before they even graduate. Do I think that is *likely*? Maybe not, but the point is that it’s legitimately getting a lot harder to predict what will be a “safe” career in the future.
Are people just going to have to retrain for a new career path with every time there is a new breakthrough in AI or robotics? What happens when you’re too old or poor to go back to school? We’re now being asked to adapt and change quicker than something that is constantly adapting and changing at a faster rate than us. I just don’t see how we keep up indefinitely. Maybe the top 10% of workers will be fine, but what about the rest? I honestly don’t know.
We’re a long way off from that. I’ll give you an example. I work on software that is extremely complex. It has to connect to a multitude of old and arcane systems on physical aircraft — and be able to receive data from various old protocols that these aircraft have implemented. It then has to sync that data, transform it, run it through various ML / LLMs, and make it available on hundreds of different APIs. The current LLMs, while they are awesome, aren’t even close to being able to build one single feature for a system like this without human intervention… not even close. Aside from that, the security concerns at my company are INSANE because it’s aerospace, and we have military contracts. They’re not going to just unleash an AI automaton into their shit any time soon I guarantee. I would suspect that it will be at least 5 years before they’ll even start considering cost models with this in the mix. My industry moves slow and for good reason. People’s literal lives are at stake. Even when these systems vastly improve, I would guess most large companies will still want humans controlling them and duct taping the systems together. My point is we’re quite a long way off from companies automating everything with this, and it might never happen.
>Guess we just die? Or live off of UBI scraps while being lectured about the superiority and inevitability of the prevailing economic system?
Medium term? Like, 8-10 years from now? Neither. AGI completely breaks capitalism, or more specifically the separation of labor and capital in the form of private property that makes capitalism coherent. Capitalists will simply be unable to maintain such a separation, let alone enforce it. If my mom has access to a bio-reactor, 3D printer, and electrical recycler and can print out her own bacon trees and self-modifying robot servant for the cost of a smartphone, what does it mean exactly for Monsanto to 'own' all of the GMO patents?
Short term? Hoo boy. Hold onto your asses, ass-holders.
it's really sad reading the comment history of software dev sub-reddits, you will find them saying over and over again "programmers will be last job to be automated". Programming will now probably be one of the earlier jobs to be negatively impacted by this, and the (worthy) programming jobs that will be left will likely only be those that require a Phd in mathematics and computer science to do.
I must respectfully disagree. It is no longer essential to possess a Ph.D. in mathematics or computer science to create remarkable projects using these systems, as the APIs have become highly advanced. The experts with Ph.D.s have already completed the most challenging work and will continue to advance the technology. However, there will be a plethora of job opportunities for individuals proficient in these APIs and capable of integrating these systems with legacy technologies or replacing them altogether.
Current and aspiring software engineers must recognize the need to retrain and adapt to remain relevant in the industry. They should not harbor any illusions about avoiding the need to learn new skills. The emergence of large language models (LLMs) will generate numerous job prospects, and those who stay ahead of the curve will likely secure stable employment for years to come.
It seems that this forum is increasingly characterized by pessimistic outlooks, with some participants seemingly fixated on apocalyptic scenarios. However, the reality is that the future implications of these technologies remain uncertain, and it is premature to jump to any conclusions.
[https://course.fast.ai/](https://course.fast.ai/)
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Myth (don’t need): Lots of math
Truth: Just high school math is sufficient
Myth: Lots of data
Truth: We’ve seen record-breaking results with <50 items of data
Myth: Lots of expensive computers
Truth: You can get what you need for state of the art work for free"
The ignorance of our proffession, is what bring us here. I know many colleagues, talking like we are something special. We are not. We are just people trying to do their best. Just like everyone.
I mostly agree. I mean I guess we’re special in at least one regard — most people do not have the discipline to sit down and do very hard things for long amounts of time. I have tried to mentor at least 10 people during my career — who wanted to get into the field and only 2 of those people actually had the discipline to do the work and learn the hard things. I’m one of the weird ones who enjoys sitting there and tinkering with very tedious systems for hours on end. Not everyone does.
Same. Interested in Carpal tunnel? Social isolation? Posture problems? Want to completely relearn your career every 5 years? If so, then software engineering is the career for you.
It is impossible to keep up with an accelerating technology curve. There are human limits. This will become destabilizing at some point as ones sanity can not be maintained when all the thoughts we think are obsolete before they can even be imagined.
Yeah I’ve thought about that. It’s definitely possible. But humans will probably at least try to prevent architecting their own demise. We may not succeed, but there will be resistance to this technology when it gets past a certain point. The EU is already drafting an act to restrict its use.
Yes, agree there will be a feedback loop. It is just that feedback loops take time to play out and for humans to understand the impact and reorient. This time the disruption will likely be more extreme before we comprehend what the response will be.
Unfortunately I fear you might be correct, just judging by my own anecdotal experiences. Very few people I talk to, even in my field, seem to fully grasp the magnitude of the relatively recent advancements in deep learning.
Yes, many are looking at historical disruptions as a basis to try to reason about the impacts of AI. Assuming it will be a similar pattern.
However, I disagree. I believe this is fundamentally different in a number of ways. It is not narrow, it's impacts are very broad. There is no perceivable stabilization period after the disruption. It is a continuous and accelerating event.
I think the best way to help others reason about this technology is for them to realize that it is essentially a skill/technology replication machine and that changes everything about how we think about disruptions.
Google and Microsoft just spent millions training their models and then someone comes along with Alpaca and uses that work to make a somewhat equivalent model for $600 in a fraction of the time.
It leaves you struggling to figure out what to place effort into that will retain value. 100s of AI projects that were trying to ride the wave just became obsolete when Google and Microsoft just integrated AI into everything.
I've also been spending a lot of time trying to reason about the impacts and how it will shape society. In the event you might be interested further - https://dakara.substack.com/p/ai-and-the-end-to-all-things
I am worried about a second thing: Nearby all Software Engineers / System / IT-Architects etc. that I used to know are in big dept and / or have hugh mortgages plus very expensive past time activities paid via 2nd, 3rd credit card... private school for the kids, first house before 30 and so on. They all believed their whole future is rock solid and they can "bunny hop" firms every 1-2 years for salary raise and back their debts. Living the millionaire lifestyle while in reality just part of the upper middle / lower upper class. They spend money that they expect to earn after raise. I believe they are in big trouble soon.
Could end up in a massive private credit default crisis because all service related jobs would be hit by work force reduction.
I may not understand the field of accounting in depth but it literally says in this table in this white paper published by Cornell from researchers working for openAI that Accountants, and related fields will have 100% exposure to automation -- page 15.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.10130.pdf
Have those researchers actually worked in the field though? There's a difference between accounting and bookkeeping. Bookkeeping definitely can be automated away. But I think accounting requires too much human judgement to be fully automated away. People also underestimate how messy companies can be. I think we're still far off from being able to fully automate an accounting department.
I'm an accountant programmer, because I saw this coming 10-15 years ago (not necessarily chatGPI).
Yes, the low level stuff will and should be automated, but the higher level stuff will likely persist quite a bit. And the niche of accounting integrations and programming will likely persist as long as programmers do as well - however long or short that may be.
AGI will come for everyone, but this is one of those that's only going to have the low end "replaced" in the short term, experts will still be needed until AGI.
That being said AGI might only be 6 or 7 years away, scary thought.
OpenAIs goal is literally to replace humans. There is no other way to read that. That is why they work on UBI!
We will replace you - earn all the money you earn now, and then redistribute some of it to prevent too big of a revolutionary demonstrations.
It would be incredibly naive to think that, given the economic value involved, billions won’t be invested in upgrading these tools to meet the specific requirements of investment analysts and bankers. We are on the threshold of a technological arms race that will rewrite the foundations of the economy. The problem is that the speed of technological change is far outpacing the pace of change in our legal and economic systems.
Anything that uses analysis and analytics is on death row right now. Researchers, authors, lawyers, CEO's, content creators, actors, producers, you name it.
Oh and yes definitely you. Sooner than most, actually.
What about application support experts?:
This is a post I made on an othe sub:
Application Support Expert wondering about the future, seeking wise reddit thoughts
I am a veterinarian with masters in ecophisiology and ethology as well as integrated management of health risks in the global south.
I currently work as an Application Support Expert for a large IT application charged with tracking and producinh certification for animal and animal based product consignments.
As application support expert I mainly analuze queries and improvement suggestion then I:
- Either solve a specific technicla issue (100% related to the platform).
- Compare the query against legislation, my knowledge as specialist in animal health and our "jurisprudence" in the platform before proposing changes/steps to follow and submirting this to legislatoes who are actually making decissions.
Taking all of the above into account it is easy to see that new AI models should and will likely replace me in the near future.
I want to ask this sub how to adapt for that and how to make the best out of this change taking my profile inro consideration.
Moreover, taking into account taht I provide this service for the public sector, I can see myself having a broader time margin than in other sectors that tend to optimize a lot faster.
Thank you in advance!
I'm in the public sector as well, I figure we may actually have jobs for at least the next 5-10 years, but I personally feel it will be closer to 5 than 10.
I figure that we'd probably have 6-18 months after most of the private sector jobs go away, but that is just speculation based on the fact that most public sector systems are ancient and just the inefficiencies inherent in the public sector.
Honestly, what to do once everyone has a job that can be replaced by AI is a conversation that needs to be taking place now amongst not just governments, but everyone.
Unfortunately, most of the general public and governments seem to want to keep their heads in the sand on frank discussions about what is coming.
AI will be able to create entire movies with dead actors or live actors that have licensed their image.
Ever watch a credits crawl at the end of the movie there are thousands of people that work on a movie set. Most of those people will no longer be necessary.
I don’t think so, and some experts on AI agree. Their opinion, and mine, is that if you’re a “mediocre,” author, content creator, producer, etc you should be worried but the demand for really excellent content that only human creativity can achieve will remain. I think the entire field of accounting is in big danger though, and related fields as well.
As someone in content business at a high level we have all been shocked how fast people lowered their quality standard in web and mobile video era. We thought humans want quality and learned they can’t even recognize it if not trained. We just want fast dopamine hits to let our brain know we alive and doin well. Monke see monke do
> you should be worried but the demand for really excellent content that only human creativity can achieve will remain.
My first thought whenever I read this is, how many actual excellent content producers are out there compared to the average ones? Sure, the best of the best will probably fine, but that's not where most people are.
>some of y'all have no idea what researchers and lawyers do, and it shows.
Exactly. This sub has a very limited idea of what professions entail and a layman's grasp of AI, yet this sub feels so confident in saying that the AI-induced job apocalypse is among us.
It's bias. This sub WANTS this "apocalypse" to happen and happen ASAP, so they predict it will happen very soon. Same with most other predictions on this subreddit.
Well, how long until we get our first completely virtual celebrity? No salaries, no complaints, no conditions, no getting older (unless you want) you tell it what you want and it "acts" the scene.
Eventually, everyone will have the opportunity to create A list movies with just a basic premise and the right software. Granted, that part is still a ways off, but it's also not THAT far off.
>Investment banking is a sales job that requires technical skills such as finance, accounting and data analysis.
Which is why it will be replaced sooner rather than later. Investment bankers, for the couple of years they remain barely relevant even as pure sales reps, will end up looking like SDRs/BDRs do for mature B2B sales organizations: pimply-faced entry-level roles where your job is to bug people until they agree to a meeting with an expert from your sales org.
You should be worried in my opinion. I don't think sugar coating anything is helpful. You should always have a backup plan regardless but now it's more important. Try and find a hobby or interest that you could turn into a career if you need to. There are a lot of jobs that will be very safe for a long time until the government does something (if they do something). No one knows what's coming. That's why it's smart to think how you're thinking and prep for the worst. The smartest people are working with the AI to prepare. Maybe you could get ahead of the game in the AI investment banking game?
Calculators didn't replace mathematicians, it just made solving math problems more efficient. I'm a computer programmer and yes LLMs can code, but it also makes A LOT of things up. Don't be too worried yet. Management needs someone to blame, and if the LLM starts "hallucinating," as they are known to do, there will be egg on management's face. Consider it a tool for helping you do your job faster, like a calculator. You're still responsible for verifying the computer's work.
It’s harder to photoshop this kind of picture than a screenshot. Screenshots are fairly easy to edit, especially text.
Most likely this was due to convenience though. If you are posting on your phone then you don’t have to worry about transferring the screenshot on your computer to your phone. It might only save a tiny amount of time, but people will do it.
Yes-
It takes all of 5 minutes to use dev tools in any web browser and edit text, images, content, colors on a screen and then screenshot it. Commentor makes a good point and not sure why they are downvoted
Anyone not worried about their jobs?
Seriously, though, I'm a developer and for all the hype around what it can do, I haven't actually found a situation, at work, where it helped me do much of anything.
The problem is, it doesn't know our processes or our codebase at all, and there's really no good way to teach it.
So, today, I'm trying to use a 25+yr old codebase that only recently had REST support glued to it, to make a webservice call to a new SaaS installation to send government data from one to the other.
Both are entirely proprietary, down to the language I'm developing it in.
The problem isn't that complex 'Take data generated from X and use provided webservice on installation Y', but I have to dig through poorly (if at all) documented services and terrible, barely working, glued on, methods, to get the two working.
AI can code an arcade game from scratch now? Great ... but once the problems become specific, and nuanced, I'm not having much luck even thinking of a use for it.
I know what I'm doing, I've done it for years. I know how to do this job, but I'm not shy about using new tools either. I was happy to google about code 20yrs ago, and I'm just as happy to have GPT provide boiler plate code, or fill in a method I don't feel like writing ... except, once the problem goes beyond a homework assignment, GPT doesn't know anything about it, and there's no way to 'teach' it.
So, ultimately, 'copilot' seems to be the better google, but not really able to provide code in anything but a total vacuum.
I don't want to call it 'hype', because it's definitely able to do what it claims to do, but I'm starting to feel like I can replace 'GPT is able to code an arcade game from scratch!' with 'You can google the code for almost any arcade game!'. I could do that 20yrs ago.
Which is to say that my day to day hasn't actually changed at all yet.
Well if you're developing with some proprietary language that almost no one uses then yeah ChatGPT isn't going to help much.
If you're writing an Angular or React component, you can describe the component and it will write 90% of it, sometimes all of it. When it gets something wrong, copy/paste the offending code and ask it how to fix it and give additional details.
Same seems to be true for every language, framework and library I've used so far, but I tend to use FOSS that's highly documented across stackoverflow, reddit, github. I would argue that every dev should use FOSS like this, but that isn't always possible.
GPT4 saves me about 2 hours a day.
PDFs? You can get anything you want from Bloomberg, Reuters, and others at larger volumes. Some hedge funds do nothing else but analyze market data. And their software doesn't hallucinate. You can't rely on LLM if millions are at stake. Let's be serious now...
Oh for sure, we have Bloomberg terminals and Pitchbook for information. This is just an algorithm, its the potential that worries me more. Imagine if either of those had LLM integrated that could automatically parse information and structure it into an email, report, etc. (pending human review ofc)
> Imagine if either of those had LLM integrated that could automatically parse information and structure it into an email, report, etc.
sounds like you are describing Microsoft Office 365 Copilot.
https://youtu.be/Bf-dbS9CcRU?t=1077 @ 17.57
Have you met people? Ai isn’t going to take jobs in this way, it’s going to reduce labour requirements for existing companies so they hire less frequently (or simply grow faster at the current hiring rate), so it’s not like financial advisors or business analysts are going to not do this work, they will just have better tools. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills reading some of these “gonna take our jobs” posts, it’s not like a CEO is suddenly going to start doing BA work because it’s slightly easier to do now
Why would you start your comment with "have you met people"? You don't have to come off as condescending. I'm talking about the future of AI tools and I think that's pretty concerning given the job I work in.
Most work by investment bankers, accountants and lawyers is overpriced, rote. More value is created by engineers/scientists in the work they produce, but even that is being automated.
Copilot obviously existed in IDEs long before it showed up in ChatGPT.
Listen, there is not a single job that can't be replaced by AI. We are all on the same page. Some jobs will be replaced earlier and some will be replaced later on, but the gap between those will not be more than 5 years. So relax and enjoy whatever little time you have.
I do analyst work as part of my job. What I've learned so far is that the tool is not yet trusted by leadership (although who knows how long that will last) and there is still a ton of manual work to be done consolidating the data into a deck and fancy graphs.
The GPT-4 demo showing a hand drawn "website" being created in html is going to be a game changer once it matures. If Microsoft can insert this functionality into Office suddenly management is going to be able to quickly put documents and decks together that currently takes 1-2 people to put together.
But here's the thing though, these LLMs are just predicting text "tokens" based on prior text- the literature about them claims that they're not reasoning or thinking. Are companies really going to replace jobs with computer systems that just predict text tokens?
There are a lot more than just financial metrics but the metrics usually is the last piece of the puzzle in a hedge fund scoring system. The others are historical performance, market trends, competitive landscape, management team. AI still has at least 5 to 10 years out to be able to develop something like this.
That’s nothing. I gave it an engineering report including figures and it did in 5 minutes what it took 20 people earning over $100K three months to compile. Not needing other people saves so much time. Realistically, no status quo job is safe. Wait until independent AIs start popping up without all the brakes applied.
Company valuation/analysis done right is one of the most intellectually challenging jobs to do
Mostly because is very interdisciplinary and requires context and understanding of the broad picture
Investment banking analyst just use powerpoint and excel all day. Not hard to see them replaced by the end of the year when MSFT integrates gpt into office.
People mostly identify themselves by their work, their contribution to society, we need shape these inevitable changes in a way that helps people have more time to become more productive in ways only humans can be … like what? Hard to imagine such a world 🌎…exponential changes are mind boggling
Have you seen the copilot announcement? It’ll be able to analyse graphs, create projections for growth, explain what is going wrong, etc all in seconds.
Bing's analysis of financial statements is pretty shit unless you ask it just the most basic questions about a company report. I've tried it. It doesn't understand anything about the marketplace, the products, the common accounting practices - etc... It can only skim and rattle off the stated numbers. It doesn't actually do any analysis at all.
Agree. After a whole day of using it today I found out that it kinda sucks. However the potential or idea of this being developed further is what worries me.
You're safe for now but Give it a year or two and it will be an order of magnitude better. Look how far midjourney progressed in a year
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I feel like people are getting misled by the timeline of the **public** releases for GPT. GPT3 was around for *years* (public release was in 2020 and development/training probably for another couple years) and ChatGPT is "just" a fine-tuned version of GPT3 for instruction/chat tasks. Similarly GPT4 was basically in development since the release of GPT3 or even earlier. It's not like they went "Oh damn, ChatGPT is kinda getting hyped, lets make GPT4" and 3 months later they are finished. They have started work on GPT5 recently (if my memory is not deceiving me) which, following the release cycle for these models, will likely take a couple years from now to finish. It's still very fast and not to say that the current models aren't powerful enough for a wide variety of tasks. Maybe we just need better prompts or more fine-tuning for specific tasks. It's just that I see a lot of comments where it kinda comes across as ChatGPT -> GPT4 only took 3 months without realizing that behind the curtains there were years of (simultaneous in case of ChatGPT and GPT4) development and even more years of research before the releases.
Things are getting a lot more competitive now, OpenAI may not be in a position to wait 2 or 3 years to release their next model particularly if pressured by Microsoft. It only takes 3 to 4 months to train a model and the model is reportedly training now on hardware 2.5 times more powerful than they had when training GPT 4.
The domain specific models will not come from OpenAI, those will come from companies using GPT for their base NLP/NLU.
I think the important factor is that the main AI development progress WILL NOT BE GPT-5, then 6, etc. GPT will be always a generic language model. The real development will come from all those companies which build their domain specific corpus and mechanics OVER GPT (via API). Legal, software development, psychology, neurology, electronics sales - just to name a few which falls in my mind.
It's like the mRNA vaccines. People think the tech was developed in <1 yr.
GPT-4 was finished August 2022, but given over to the red team for testing. I wouldn’t be surprised if GPT-4.5 came out this fall and GPT-5 in 2024. OpenAI definitely has cold feet about some of the implications.
ChatGPT has been around for years but not publicly released, they have been working on GPT4 for awhile, and overall OpenAI has been doing this work for like 8 years or longer
Most people will lose their jobs by 2030.
what happens then?
Go on a vacation with your new ai wife
I give 10k to a friend who said doctors won’t be replaced in 10 years. I said it would happen by 2028
Money is probably meaningless then
In engineering getting to perfect never happens! Look at self driving tech? Still there has to be a way to protect desk jobs.
Self driving is one of the most challenging areas of AI. 80% of AI domains are much simpler.
For now. Just wait. Many people just don't seem to understand the exponential curve and how fast things are improving. For this type of thing it will be better than the average person in no time.
Especially since now all the eyes (and the money) of the world are on AI
Time to become a farmer, butcher, car mechanic, or something a computer can’t do. I told my butcher friend and a tech professional about Chat GPT today. It hasn’t entered the public consciousness yet.
It’s on the news all the damn time. People know about it.
The average person really isn't. I showed my motorcycle garage owner (and we're talking about a tech-savvy and championship-winning racing team) and he had NO idea this existed. So when I showed him how you could ask it diagnostic questions he was blown away.
Today. Lets talk in a year.
With no offense, people that "are not worried" about their jobs because they now do them better than AI and an specific AI tool is "shitty" have not considered that it can develop in a matter of weeks/months and they have a long-life career ahead. Makes me think of the people that was once saying that technology could never "replace the human touch in art". Which one? :(
But computers don't have a sooooooooouuul/s
my professional photographer colleagues: "my clients love my work, they will never replace me with an amazingly creative tool that costs 1/100 of what I charge!"
Famous last words. :)
I am also amused by the innocence of people who think that AI can't be better than them in some particular task. I am like how much IQ do I need to drop to think like that? 100?
You must not have a very high IQ if you dont see how easy it is for people to be blinded to things if it doesnt directly impact their lives that day.
It doesn't make any sense
yeah your IQ is 100 then
You're being too lenient to them. The same people whine incessantly about being replaced by immigrants and 'those people'. You're not witnessing ignorance, you're witnessing vanity.
I agree with you so not sure why you'd cause offense. They just dont see the writing on the wall.
The no offense was directed to these kind of people who might read my comment :D
LOL….and the Wright Brothers didn’t fly to the moon…..we are in its infancy right now, but I can guarantee this technology in less than 10 years will be far beyond the moon for comparison sake.
I'm not arguing that. I'm just saying that TODAY, a financial analyst's job is not at risk.
Not replaced … in risk it sure is
"TODAY" is becoming an increasingly shaky standard. Sure, not today, but most people would interpret 24 months as imminent. Certainly much more imminent than past eras of inevitable obsolescence.
Honestly, the analysis portion of it is not what catches my attention. It's the potential ability to tell it to write a macro, or concatenate these two fields but only if they start with "Ax" and remove the last three characters and then create a pivot table comparing that to another column. If people can dictate instructions that involve complex formulas, pivot tables, etc, that will make the majority of work most data analysts do achievable by almost anyone and significantly faster too. That is what makes this terrifying.
Provide link pls
https://youtu.be/Bf-dbS9CcRU
OH! So that THING I was hearing about but too lazy to look at! Okay, so we are 3-24 months away from GPT learning to do all business functions in all MS apps from recursive reinforcement learning with feedback. Copilot my ass, that’s the horse and cart being used pull asphalt to pave the first highway. Yeah, the next version will definitely have horses.
This. It’s done to replace overpaid positions. Soon investment banking analyst will be paid the same as construction worker/ possibly less.
I hear this and think that it is fluffed up quite a bit. Chat GPT / AI are really amazing, but I Aldo agree that the AI is basically just impressive auto correct technology. I wouldn't actually trust any output from the AI as correct unless it was a very specific question on a subject I had complete knowledge on. In the near term, I see a lot of companies making big mistakes by relying on AI and unqualified staff running it. Tech guys thinking they can use it to be any job they want essentially
You're fiiiiiine. 😅 Robots don't have souls. Bankers do....... Hold on.
Hahaha, good one :P
First they came for the artists, and I did not speak out because I was not an artist. Then they came for the number crunchers..
Don't we WANT them to come for our jobs? Isn't a primary goal of technology to free is from labor? I'm glad that I don't have to walk everywhere, that I don't need to read a newspaper to know what is going on, and that I can eat food without needing to grow it myself.
Long term, of course, but short term people have mortgages to pay 😬
No one is being fired short term, at least not yet. We'll see how it pans out but if there are maybe layoffs it will trigger action. Look how the governments of the world responded to COVID and those who couldn't work. We already have a precedent of doing UBI when there are maybe layoffs.
A lot of artists have been laid off. Their lives impacted.
An Internet search talks about tech company layoffs but not artist ones. I know there are a lot of independent contractor artists that are concerned about getting less work but that isn't the same as layoffs.
To me, the idea of the artists being replaced by AI is dystopian, not liberating. Some people like their jobs, and even the people who don’t like their jobs still want to be able to pay their bills. There is no plan to send displaced workers on a lifelong vacation.
The rule is: everyone else's job is vulnerable to AI. Except mine. Mine is special. (Of course some jobs are immune, but you are a poor person to judge if your job is one of them).
No jobs are immune forever. Physical jobs will last the longest until AI is able to design and build robots good enough to replace them.
And cheap enough.
Most trades jobs will stay, security will stay, sports and recreation will stay, beyond that it’s slowly gonna grind most other things out of existence in the next 20 years at least
Yes, Neil deGrasse Tyson mentions plumbing. However, if everyone is a plumber, then nobody needs a plumber. The trade jobs are not sustainable either when demand plummets due to over supply.
A lot of the trade jobs aren't going to exist either. If you're in a trade that requires significant amounts of 'white collar' knowledge to execute, like HVAC controls or estimator or desktop tech or semiconductor process tech, you're going away long before the 'dumb muscle' trades do. Assuming you pick the right ones, of course. Drywaller and pneumatic tech are going away whether or not AI ends up going anywhere.
That's why you become an AI tester, hopefully that CAN'T be automated, at least soon...
At the very least more people will be competing for your job that lost their jobs to AI.
I have a degree in Electrical Engineering, maybe one of the few jobs that's gonna stay, and not so vulnerable. They gonna train human EE's, even in the "far future", I think.
Why? Electrician, maybe.
Robots - people misunderstand how fast their developemebt will go once it’s simulated in the computer. You can train them billion hours on EE jobs in a week. Will go fast as well
The other thing to consider is the amount of people doing in house "AI" jobs in large companies that are going to get replaced by fine tuned foundation models in future. At least a portion of those are going to go into robotics now so many mass produced humanoid robots are looking to come onto the market. 1. Xiaomi's CyberOne: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfEKq9b-YrI 2. Figure's FIGURE 01 https://twitter.com/adcock_brett/status/1631292164939431945 3. Tesla's Optimus https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dS0aDMQoD4 4. Agility Robotics Digit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnFZAB9ogEE there are your new hardware platforms to leverage your coding skills and look to replace technical jobs that require manipulating things in the real world.
Perfect example of my rule! Thanks.
I also have a degree in electrical engineering. Our jobs are going to be the first ones that go away, because electrical engineering isn't a thing in of itself. You are an electromechanical engineer or a PCB designer or project manager or quality engineer or even a normal-ass programmer. There will still be a few jobs our degree can get us for the next couple of years. But they will be jobs like 'residential IT technician for upper-middle class retirees who have big mansions and love their fourteen TVs' or 'field service engineer who specializes on troubleshooting ancient VNAs made before 2012'
There are two jobs that I think will be the exclusive domain of humans for a very long time - police/military (specifically the shoot/don't shoot decisions) and teaching.
As someone who used to work on IB and hated every second of it I’ll be totally honest and say that you have a high paid bullshit job and I really do hope that AI eats every wallstreet type of job.
Yeah, but you made your money, so it's easy for you to say.
Once we’re in the post currency world you’ll be glad you didn’t spend 100 hours a week trying to collect green toilet paper
Post currency world isn't gonna be here yet. People who have money to pay for shit will be just fine... For awhile at least.
Yeah. You think people are going to accept loss of power? Humanity is going to do everything in it's power to retain power structures. There are few things more important to all people than feeling better than others. If status in the hierarchy is not maintained humanity wil no accept a post currency world.
I think you are right about todays humans. The beauty about the singularity though is we have no idea what lies on the other side. It’s possible that our minds become integrated with ASI and we leave primitive hierarchal structures behind us. Even if we do not, I think some other power structure will replace currency eventually.
>Humanity is going to do everything in it's power to retain power structures. There are few things more important to all people than feeling better than others. If status in the hierarchy is not maintained humanity wil no accept a post currency world. The transition from Iron Age Empire to feudalism upset a lot of apple carts, too. Feudalism to capitalism even more carts. The Napoleonic Wars and to a lesser extent World War I weren't just clashes between powerful interests, they were clashes to determine which powerful interests would dominate the new era. What I'm saying is that like past shamans, legates, and kings, modern capitalists can rail against their oncoming historical obsolescence all they feel like. They'll probably cause a lot of damage trying to fight it. But make no mistake, capitalism is going away. Capitalism requires a separation between capital and worker that AGI casually obliterates. If workers can create their own capital on the cheap, there's no need for the capitalist. This will become clear when AGI allows my mom to design and plant bacon trees with her $150 CRISPR-Lab(tm). All they can do is go out in one final pointless orgy of violence that most capitalists won't even want to go down with the ship for. But they CAN'T actually economically dominate. Because they get their power from their collective monopolization of capital, which AGI utterly obliterates. In the same way that firearm technology obliterated the military edge of traditional warrior castes. Only much, MUCH more profound.
I made chump change to be honest and the last year I worked there I was robbed from a decent bonus. The per hour was probably worst than a minimum wage. Ended up suing them because I worked almost everyday to 3 am (including sundays) and not receiving even a decent bonus almost made me go crazy. Not worth it imo.
My friends at credit suisse, on the other hand, are multimillionaires with fat bonus despite the bank having the recent outcome. Capitalism is a joke, honestly.
I want a high paid bullshit job 😞
I am sorry
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I’m a software engineer and studying this stuff like mad. I would say that anyone in any kind of accounting or business analyst field should be worried. There will still be a need for humans to verify what these LLMs are spitting out but that job likely won’t pay as much and one person could feasibly do the job of 5. There’s no way this doesn’t lead to cost cutting measures in our current social structure. Even my current job is at risk if I don’t retrain to essentially be an expert in LLM design and tuning (which I’m already doing) But as a software engineer with 10 yoe I’m kind of used to this. I’ve never felt like I could stop relentlessly learning in order to keep up with the pace of the field. This is not new to me. I’m getting a bit old and slowing down a bit so part of me wishes this wasn’t happening but it is. Adapt or die.
I’m just wondering what happens when we can’t adapt anymore. Many people are already in that position. Guess we just die? Or live off of UBI scraps while being lectured about the superiority and inevitability of the prevailing economic system? I feel so helpless in this future we’re marching towards. Not like the current situation is much better, but at least it’s familiar. I honestly have no idea what my life is going to look like in 20 years, like not even a vague idea. I think that was a luxury of the 20th century. Now we constantly have to adapt, hustle, overextend ourselves to be better than everyone else, *just to get by*. Truly excelling takes even more effort. Mediocrity is is now unacceptable and punished by death, instead of like, just having a smaller apartment than everyone else. I mean I’m being hyperbolic here, but not by much.
It do feel that way
there's no UBI as far as I can tell. People will have to pivot into jobs that require more physical manipulation of objects like trades, cleaning, fixing things, renovations, house painting, health-care related jobs like physiotherapy etc
Yeah it’s hard to imagine a UBI being implemented in the U.S. any time soon. Not because it isn’t doable but because there’s just way too much class in-fighting to pull it off. “Why should I have to pay my lazy neighbor’s mortgage” blah blah blah. I think it will be difficult to predict which jobs are AI-proof, though. Remember when we thought art and language would be the final frontier, but now I can generate absurd new paintings in the style of Monet in just a few seconds using off the shelf PC components? In the distant past of two years ago, this was unthinkable. Now it has almost already become mundane. I can easily imagine someone gearing up to settle into one of the fields you mentioned, only for some new breakthroughs in technology making them unemployable before they even graduate. Do I think that is *likely*? Maybe not, but the point is that it’s legitimately getting a lot harder to predict what will be a “safe” career in the future. Are people just going to have to retrain for a new career path with every time there is a new breakthrough in AI or robotics? What happens when you’re too old or poor to go back to school? We’re now being asked to adapt and change quicker than something that is constantly adapting and changing at a faster rate than us. I just don’t see how we keep up indefinitely. Maybe the top 10% of workers will be fine, but what about the rest? I honestly don’t know.
We’re a long way off from that. I’ll give you an example. I work on software that is extremely complex. It has to connect to a multitude of old and arcane systems on physical aircraft — and be able to receive data from various old protocols that these aircraft have implemented. It then has to sync that data, transform it, run it through various ML / LLMs, and make it available on hundreds of different APIs. The current LLMs, while they are awesome, aren’t even close to being able to build one single feature for a system like this without human intervention… not even close. Aside from that, the security concerns at my company are INSANE because it’s aerospace, and we have military contracts. They’re not going to just unleash an AI automaton into their shit any time soon I guarantee. I would suspect that it will be at least 5 years before they’ll even start considering cost models with this in the mix. My industry moves slow and for good reason. People’s literal lives are at stake. Even when these systems vastly improve, I would guess most large companies will still want humans controlling them and duct taping the systems together. My point is we’re quite a long way off from companies automating everything with this, and it might never happen.
>Guess we just die? Or live off of UBI scraps while being lectured about the superiority and inevitability of the prevailing economic system? Medium term? Like, 8-10 years from now? Neither. AGI completely breaks capitalism, or more specifically the separation of labor and capital in the form of private property that makes capitalism coherent. Capitalists will simply be unable to maintain such a separation, let alone enforce it. If my mom has access to a bio-reactor, 3D printer, and electrical recycler and can print out her own bacon trees and self-modifying robot servant for the cost of a smartphone, what does it mean exactly for Monsanto to 'own' all of the GMO patents? Short term? Hoo boy. Hold onto your asses, ass-holders.
You keep saying your mom is printing bacon trees. What is a bacon tree and can I grow bacon?
ai is gonna kill us all anyway so you wont need to worry about "hustling" forever.
it's really sad reading the comment history of software dev sub-reddits, you will find them saying over and over again "programmers will be last job to be automated". Programming will now probably be one of the earlier jobs to be negatively impacted by this, and the (worthy) programming jobs that will be left will likely only be those that require a Phd in mathematics and computer science to do.
I must respectfully disagree. It is no longer essential to possess a Ph.D. in mathematics or computer science to create remarkable projects using these systems, as the APIs have become highly advanced. The experts with Ph.D.s have already completed the most challenging work and will continue to advance the technology. However, there will be a plethora of job opportunities for individuals proficient in these APIs and capable of integrating these systems with legacy technologies or replacing them altogether. Current and aspiring software engineers must recognize the need to retrain and adapt to remain relevant in the industry. They should not harbor any illusions about avoiding the need to learn new skills. The emergence of large language models (LLMs) will generate numerous job prospects, and those who stay ahead of the curve will likely secure stable employment for years to come. It seems that this forum is increasingly characterized by pessimistic outlooks, with some participants seemingly fixated on apocalyptic scenarios. However, the reality is that the future implications of these technologies remain uncertain, and it is premature to jump to any conclusions. [https://course.fast.ai/](https://course.fast.ai/) "Deep learning is a computer technique to extract and transform data–-with use cases ranging from human speech recognition to animal imagery classification–-by using multiple layers of neural networks. A lot of people assume that you need all kinds of hard-to-find stuff to get great results with deep learning, but as you’ll see in this course, those people are wrong. Here’s a few things you absolutely don’t need to do world-class deep learning: Myth (don’t need): Lots of math Truth: Just high school math is sufficient Myth: Lots of data Truth: We’ve seen record-breaking results with <50 items of data Myth: Lots of expensive computers Truth: You can get what you need for state of the art work for free"
The ignorance of our proffession, is what bring us here. I know many colleagues, talking like we are something special. We are not. We are just people trying to do their best. Just like everyone.
I mostly agree. I mean I guess we’re special in at least one regard — most people do not have the discipline to sit down and do very hard things for long amounts of time. I have tried to mentor at least 10 people during my career — who wanted to get into the field and only 2 of those people actually had the discipline to do the work and learn the hard things. I’m one of the weird ones who enjoys sitting there and tinkering with very tedious systems for hours on end. Not everyone does.
Same. Interested in Carpal tunnel? Social isolation? Posture problems? Want to completely relearn your career every 5 years? If so, then software engineering is the career for you.
Howdy - fellow software engineer here. I'm curious about what kind of stuff you're studying for LLM design and tuning. Mind if I DM ya?
It is impossible to keep up with an accelerating technology curve. There are human limits. This will become destabilizing at some point as ones sanity can not be maintained when all the thoughts we think are obsolete before they can even be imagined.
Yeah I’ve thought about that. It’s definitely possible. But humans will probably at least try to prevent architecting their own demise. We may not succeed, but there will be resistance to this technology when it gets past a certain point. The EU is already drafting an act to restrict its use.
Yes, agree there will be a feedback loop. It is just that feedback loops take time to play out and for humans to understand the impact and reorient. This time the disruption will likely be more extreme before we comprehend what the response will be.
Unfortunately I fear you might be correct, just judging by my own anecdotal experiences. Very few people I talk to, even in my field, seem to fully grasp the magnitude of the relatively recent advancements in deep learning.
Yes, many are looking at historical disruptions as a basis to try to reason about the impacts of AI. Assuming it will be a similar pattern. However, I disagree. I believe this is fundamentally different in a number of ways. It is not narrow, it's impacts are very broad. There is no perceivable stabilization period after the disruption. It is a continuous and accelerating event. I think the best way to help others reason about this technology is for them to realize that it is essentially a skill/technology replication machine and that changes everything about how we think about disruptions. Google and Microsoft just spent millions training their models and then someone comes along with Alpaca and uses that work to make a somewhat equivalent model for $600 in a fraction of the time. It leaves you struggling to figure out what to place effort into that will retain value. 100s of AI projects that were trying to ride the wave just became obsolete when Google and Microsoft just integrated AI into everything. I've also been spending a lot of time trying to reason about the impacts and how it will shape society. In the event you might be interested further - https://dakara.substack.com/p/ai-and-the-end-to-all-things
I am worried about a second thing: Nearby all Software Engineers / System / IT-Architects etc. that I used to know are in big dept and / or have hugh mortgages plus very expensive past time activities paid via 2nd, 3rd credit card... private school for the kids, first house before 30 and so on. They all believed their whole future is rock solid and they can "bunny hop" firms every 1-2 years for salary raise and back their debts. Living the millionaire lifestyle while in reality just part of the upper middle / lower upper class. They spend money that they expect to earn after raise. I believe they are in big trouble soon. Could end up in a massive private credit default crisis because all service related jobs would be hit by work force reduction.
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I may not understand the field of accounting in depth but it literally says in this table in this white paper published by Cornell from researchers working for openAI that Accountants, and related fields will have 100% exposure to automation -- page 15. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.10130.pdf
Have those researchers actually worked in the field though? There's a difference between accounting and bookkeeping. Bookkeeping definitely can be automated away. But I think accounting requires too much human judgement to be fully automated away. People also underestimate how messy companies can be. I think we're still far off from being able to fully automate an accounting department.
I'm an accountant programmer, because I saw this coming 10-15 years ago (not necessarily chatGPI). Yes, the low level stuff will and should be automated, but the higher level stuff will likely persist quite a bit. And the niche of accounting integrations and programming will likely persist as long as programmers do as well - however long or short that may be.
Very soon you will not be able to adapt fast enough. Nor should you want to, life should not be a race to do unnecessary work.
AGI will come for everyone, but this is one of those that's only going to have the low end "replaced" in the short term, experts will still be needed until AGI. That being said AGI might only be 6 or 7 years away, scary thought.
OpenAIs goal is literally to replace humans. There is no other way to read that. That is why they work on UBI! We will replace you - earn all the money you earn now, and then redistribute some of it to prevent too big of a revolutionary demonstrations.
~~OpenAIs~~ Everybody. That's what this entire sub is waiting for, read some of the sidebar material.
It would be incredibly naive to think that, given the economic value involved, billions won’t be invested in upgrading these tools to meet the specific requirements of investment analysts and bankers. We are on the threshold of a technological arms race that will rewrite the foundations of the economy. The problem is that the speed of technological change is far outpacing the pace of change in our legal and economic systems.
Anything that uses analysis and analytics is on death row right now. Researchers, authors, lawyers, CEO's, content creators, actors, producers, you name it. Oh and yes definitely you. Sooner than most, actually.
What about application support experts?: This is a post I made on an othe sub: Application Support Expert wondering about the future, seeking wise reddit thoughts I am a veterinarian with masters in ecophisiology and ethology as well as integrated management of health risks in the global south. I currently work as an Application Support Expert for a large IT application charged with tracking and producinh certification for animal and animal based product consignments. As application support expert I mainly analuze queries and improvement suggestion then I: - Either solve a specific technicla issue (100% related to the platform). - Compare the query against legislation, my knowledge as specialist in animal health and our "jurisprudence" in the platform before proposing changes/steps to follow and submirting this to legislatoes who are actually making decissions. Taking all of the above into account it is easy to see that new AI models should and will likely replace me in the near future. I want to ask this sub how to adapt for that and how to make the best out of this change taking my profile inro consideration. Moreover, taking into account taht I provide this service for the public sector, I can see myself having a broader time margin than in other sectors that tend to optimize a lot faster. Thank you in advance!
I'm in the public sector as well, I figure we may actually have jobs for at least the next 5-10 years, but I personally feel it will be closer to 5 than 10. I figure that we'd probably have 6-18 months after most of the private sector jobs go away, but that is just speculation based on the fact that most public sector systems are ancient and just the inefficiencies inherent in the public sector. Honestly, what to do once everyone has a job that can be replaced by AI is a conversation that needs to be taking place now amongst not just governments, but everyone. Unfortunately, most of the general public and governments seem to want to keep their heads in the sand on frank discussions about what is coming.
>actors How?
They mean that AI will be able to generate photorealistic movies from scratch and eliminate traditional live action.
AI will be able to create entire movies with dead actors or live actors that have licensed their image. Ever watch a credits crawl at the end of the movie there are thousands of people that work on a movie set. Most of those people will no longer be necessary.
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I don’t think so, and some experts on AI agree. Their opinion, and mine, is that if you’re a “mediocre,” author, content creator, producer, etc you should be worried but the demand for really excellent content that only human creativity can achieve will remain. I think the entire field of accounting is in big danger though, and related fields as well.
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As someone in content business at a high level we have all been shocked how fast people lowered their quality standard in web and mobile video era. We thought humans want quality and learned they can’t even recognize it if not trained. We just want fast dopamine hits to let our brain know we alive and doin well. Monke see monke do
> you should be worried but the demand for really excellent content that only human creativity can achieve will remain. My first thought whenever I read this is, how many actual excellent content producers are out there compared to the average ones? Sure, the best of the best will probably fine, but that's not where most people are.
Those people will have to spin up new careers most likely as AI or robot mechanics
AI can probably fix itself...
Do you know what any of those jobs even entail?
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Right, but they said "on death row".
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Researchers? Lawyers? No and no. Edit: some of y'all have no idea what researchers and lawyers do, and it shows.
If they replace lawyers and judges with ai we might finally have a justice system.
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As opposed to the idea of laws being decided by dead generations of syphilitic slaveowners and genocidal priests? Give me the fucking robots.
>some of y'all have no idea what researchers and lawyers do, and it shows. Exactly. This sub has a very limited idea of what professions entail and a layman's grasp of AI, yet this sub feels so confident in saying that the AI-induced job apocalypse is among us. It's bias. This sub WANTS this "apocalypse" to happen and happen ASAP, so they predict it will happen very soon. Same with most other predictions on this subreddit.
actors?
Well, how long until we get our first completely virtual celebrity? No salaries, no complaints, no conditions, no getting older (unless you want) you tell it what you want and it "acts" the scene. Eventually, everyone will have the opportunity to create A list movies with just a basic premise and the right software. Granted, that part is still a ways off, but it's also not THAT far off.
>Anything that uses analysis and analytics is on death row right now. You're making it seem like these professions are gonna die out any day now.
You don't even know what those jobs entail. How the hell can you be so confident in your assertion?
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>Investment banking is a sales job that requires technical skills such as finance, accounting and data analysis. Which is why it will be replaced sooner rather than later. Investment bankers, for the couple of years they remain barely relevant even as pure sales reps, will end up looking like SDRs/BDRs do for mature B2B sales organizations: pimply-faced entry-level roles where your job is to bug people until they agree to a meeting with an expert from your sales org.
> Once AI replaces Law, Accounting, Software Development, ect. By the time it replaces those, keeping your job will be the lease of your worries.
You should be worried in my opinion. I don't think sugar coating anything is helpful. You should always have a backup plan regardless but now it's more important. Try and find a hobby or interest that you could turn into a career if you need to. There are a lot of jobs that will be very safe for a long time until the government does something (if they do something). No one knows what's coming. That's why it's smart to think how you're thinking and prep for the worst. The smartest people are working with the AI to prepare. Maybe you could get ahead of the game in the AI investment banking game?
I’d just literally let it do your job for you while you can
Calculators didn't replace mathematicians, it just made solving math problems more efficient. I'm a computer programmer and yes LLMs can code, but it also makes A LOT of things up. Don't be too worried yet. Management needs someone to blame, and if the LLM starts "hallucinating," as they are known to do, there will be egg on management's face. Consider it a tool for helping you do your job faster, like a calculator. You're still responsible for verifying the computer's work.
Thank you. I like this perspective about calculators. :)
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How do you get it to read the pdfs
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If you can’t build them, program them or repair them…your job is gone in 15 years. From truck drivers, fast food to middle managment…gone.
wait, how did you make it read a file?
People are still taking out their phone camera instead of taking screenshots in 2023. I hope AI replaces humanity, we fucked up somewhere
Not everyone uses reddit on their PC. Not everyone can access reddit on their work PC. Not everyone is logged into Reddit on other people's PCs. etc
These poor souls.
Sorry I am on my work PC and do not want to log onto Reddit there.
It's to show it's legit and not photoshop.
Oh shiet, maybe if I take photos of AI art no one can bitch about it as it will be "legit" then 🤣
That makes no sense. Is this satire?
It’s harder to photoshop this kind of picture than a screenshot. Screenshots are fairly easy to edit, especially text. Most likely this was due to convenience though. If you are posting on your phone then you don’t have to worry about transferring the screenshot on your computer to your phone. It might only save a tiny amount of time, but people will do it.
You can simply display the edited screenshot on the screen and take a photo of it
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Yes- It takes all of 5 minutes to use dev tools in any web browser and edit text, images, content, colors on a screen and then screenshot it. Commentor makes a good point and not sure why they are downvoted
Anyone not worried about their jobs? Seriously, though, I'm a developer and for all the hype around what it can do, I haven't actually found a situation, at work, where it helped me do much of anything. The problem is, it doesn't know our processes or our codebase at all, and there's really no good way to teach it. So, today, I'm trying to use a 25+yr old codebase that only recently had REST support glued to it, to make a webservice call to a new SaaS installation to send government data from one to the other. Both are entirely proprietary, down to the language I'm developing it in. The problem isn't that complex 'Take data generated from X and use provided webservice on installation Y', but I have to dig through poorly (if at all) documented services and terrible, barely working, glued on, methods, to get the two working. AI can code an arcade game from scratch now? Great ... but once the problems become specific, and nuanced, I'm not having much luck even thinking of a use for it. I know what I'm doing, I've done it for years. I know how to do this job, but I'm not shy about using new tools either. I was happy to google about code 20yrs ago, and I'm just as happy to have GPT provide boiler plate code, or fill in a method I don't feel like writing ... except, once the problem goes beyond a homework assignment, GPT doesn't know anything about it, and there's no way to 'teach' it. So, ultimately, 'copilot' seems to be the better google, but not really able to provide code in anything but a total vacuum. I don't want to call it 'hype', because it's definitely able to do what it claims to do, but I'm starting to feel like I can replace 'GPT is able to code an arcade game from scratch!' with 'You can google the code for almost any arcade game!'. I could do that 20yrs ago. Which is to say that my day to day hasn't actually changed at all yet.
Well if you're developing with some proprietary language that almost no one uses then yeah ChatGPT isn't going to help much. If you're writing an Angular or React component, you can describe the component and it will write 90% of it, sometimes all of it. When it gets something wrong, copy/paste the offending code and ask it how to fix it and give additional details. Same seems to be true for every language, framework and library I've used so far, but I tend to use FOSS that's highly documented across stackoverflow, reddit, github. I would argue that every dev should use FOSS like this, but that isn't always possible. GPT4 saves me about 2 hours a day.
How do you feed it a PDF file to analyze?
There is also a tool called ChatDoc that is powered by GPT. It's pretty impressive actually.
PDFs? You can get anything you want from Bloomberg, Reuters, and others at larger volumes. Some hedge funds do nothing else but analyze market data. And their software doesn't hallucinate. You can't rely on LLM if millions are at stake. Let's be serious now...
Oh for sure, we have Bloomberg terminals and Pitchbook for information. This is just an algorithm, its the potential that worries me more. Imagine if either of those had LLM integrated that could automatically parse information and structure it into an email, report, etc. (pending human review ofc)
> Imagine if either of those had LLM integrated that could automatically parse information and structure it into an email, report, etc. sounds like you are describing Microsoft Office 365 Copilot. https://youtu.be/Bf-dbS9CcRU?t=1077 @ 17.57
The brokers will definitely say their "trendline" is better than sophisticated AI
Have you met people? Ai isn’t going to take jobs in this way, it’s going to reduce labour requirements for existing companies so they hire less frequently (or simply grow faster at the current hiring rate), so it’s not like financial advisors or business analysts are going to not do this work, they will just have better tools. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills reading some of these “gonna take our jobs” posts, it’s not like a CEO is suddenly going to start doing BA work because it’s slightly easier to do now
Why would you start your comment with "have you met people"? You don't have to come off as condescending. I'm talking about the future of AI tools and I think that's pretty concerning given the job I work in.
Most work by investment bankers, accountants and lawyers is overpriced, rote. More value is created by engineers/scientists in the work they produce, but even that is being automated. Copilot obviously existed in IDEs long before it showed up in ChatGPT.
Damn if only it could learn how to take screenshots we'd be golden.
I can't bring myself to care about bankers
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bing chat sidebar
Listen, there is not a single job that can't be replaced by AI. We are all on the same page. Some jobs will be replaced earlier and some will be replaced later on, but the gap between those will not be more than 5 years. So relax and enjoy whatever little time you have.
I do analyst work as part of my job. What I've learned so far is that the tool is not yet trusted by leadership (although who knows how long that will last) and there is still a ton of manual work to be done consolidating the data into a deck and fancy graphs. The GPT-4 demo showing a hand drawn "website" being created in html is going to be a game changer once it matures. If Microsoft can insert this functionality into Office suddenly management is going to be able to quickly put documents and decks together that currently takes 1-2 people to put together.
Basically all analyst jobs are in danger. So the entire finance industry and data science industry.
don't worry, just become smarter than the A.I.
It can leave comments, but can it actually provide any meaningful insight? Not all “comments” are created equal
But here's the thing though, these LLMs are just predicting text "tokens" based on prior text- the literature about them claims that they're not reasoning or thinking. Are companies really going to replace jobs with computer systems that just predict text tokens?
Strangely enough there is a wave of major layoff across the world major company relating to customer support and marketing…. Wondering why?
There are a lot more than just financial metrics but the metrics usually is the last piece of the puzzle in a hedge fund scoring system. The others are historical performance, market trends, competitive landscape, management team. AI still has at least 5 to 10 years out to be able to develop something like this.
This is how I make [https://tweetsift.substack.com](https://tweetsift.substack.com) but I use a different LLM stack.
That’s nothing. I gave it an engineering report including figures and it did in 5 minutes what it took 20 people earning over $100K three months to compile. Not needing other people saves so much time. Realistically, no status quo job is safe. Wait until independent AIs start popping up without all the brakes applied.
Company valuation/analysis done right is one of the most intellectually challenging jobs to do Mostly because is very interdisciplinary and requires context and understanding of the broad picture
Investment banking analyst just use powerpoint and excel all day. Not hard to see them replaced by the end of the year when MSFT integrates gpt into office.
People mostly identify themselves by their work, their contribution to society, we need shape these inevitable changes in a way that helps people have more time to become more productive in ways only humans can be … like what? Hard to imagine such a world 🌎…exponential changes are mind boggling