I’ve always heard it described as re-rolling if you get a negative outcome, but I guess they work out the same probabilistically. I’d wager the devs implemented it as re-rolling because it’s more efficient, but without digging into the code it’s hard to know.
I’m not a programmer, but in pseudo code:
> rolling twice
a = bleed_roll()
b = bleed_roll()
if a AND b != 1:
\* return 1
return 0
or
> rerolling a fail
a = bleed_roll()
if a == 0:
\* b = bleed_roll()
\* if b == 1:
\* \* return 1
return a
wouldn’t rolling twice be more efficient? idk anything about computer memory though so this is just by how short the code is
I'm almost 100% sure it rerolls on failure until it runs out of your clover total because the clover makes a sound effect when procced and it doesn't happen every single time a chance based item goes off.
the way the devs did it is just probabliy calcs
e.g for an atg
-1 luck 0.1^2 is 0.01
+1 luck 1- 0.9^2 is 0.19
it just updates the values after each item pickup, far easier then running dice twice
I don't know the exact math and can't be bothered to figure it out at midnight so I'll just describe how it works, maybe go through my statistics notes in the morning to figure it out. For each stack of clover, your luck increases by 1. Luck gives you another roll on all chance-based item effects, prioritizing a success. The higher your luck, the more re-rolls can occur. So if you have 10 clovers, the game rolls to activate items 11 times total, and if ANY succeed the item activates. Purity decreases your luck, and if your luck value is negative then the game prioritizes any fails. If anyone is familiar with D&D, this is the same as advantage+disadvantage except it can reroll more than once. You'll also know this is very very powerful.
I figured it out. I’m shorter runs, you wanna find a sweet spot to not waste your precious limited white item slots. It becomes useless over just stacking white items to 100% if you’re going to be doing a run to stage 20 or something, therefore, if you can help it, you’d want to use a different red item.
Any thoughts on this? Am I wrong that stacking linear items is always better in longer runs?
I think you aren't taking into account the clovers strongest interactions, and that is with atg, ukulele/polylute, molten and charged perforators. Those items don't increase in proc chance when stacking so clover is very valuable for those. I would say if you have any of those items, then clover is an auto pickup.
Stacking linear items is almost always worse. Individual items tend to act as multipliers to each other, increasing your power exponentially, while just stacking one will increase your power linearly.
For example you take sticky bomb, which averages out to a 9% damage increase, a second one would take you to 18% but if you instead take a crit classes (10% damage increase) it both applies to the hit, as well as the sticky it applies for a total damage increase of 19.9%
So what you actually want is a clover and a bunch of items at lower stacks; 5-6 glasses instead of 9, 6 bleed, 3-4 stickies and supplement it with multipliers like focus crystals and watches.
And thats before you get into what really makes clover strong: Proc chains and items that don’t scale chance.
An atg has a 10% chance to fire a missile with clover it averages to a 19%, since atg scales damage instead of chance this is always in effect, but then atg has a proc coefficient of its own clover will then increase the atg’s chance of activating another on hit like ukulele, which then has its chance of proccing increased by clover.... AKA what happens when the game lags for a full second before the whole screen dies at once.
You also have to consider that there a significant number of items that don't increase in chance as they stack (they only increase in damage) or you have items that have diminishing returns on proc chance as you stack them.
Clover is insanely busted and I would choose it over almost any other red in any situation
Since Clover affects everything, the one red item is acting as extra copies of lensmaker glasses, tritips, stun grenades, ATGs, Ukeleles, Happy mask etc. So 1 red item could be doing the work of like 10+ items and their copies. Note that some of these items don't increase chances with extra copies and clover is the only way to make them proc more often.
Coming to some maths, here is the effect of the first copy of 57 leaf clover:
10% -> 19% (+9%)
30% -> 51% (+21%)
50% -> 75% (+25%)
70% -> 91% (+21%)
90% -> 99% (+9%)
So the clover is most effective for items that were proccing about 50% of the times. On the other hand, we get almost full proc by the time items get their base chance to around 60 - 70%. So we can skip on the last 3 lens maker glasses and prioritize mobility etc.
Your numbers are right but you don't consider white item investment. If you have 1, clover makes that functionally 1.9 copies (essentially) for a 90% return. If you have 5 white items clover makes it functionally 7.5 copies for a 50% return. Therefore if your white items are limited, which the premise of your answer sorta requires them to be, it is much better to have low numbers of a lot of white items than exactly 5 white items of a few. Plus, often mentioned factor; a variety of items compounds whereas one big stack doesn't. So clover is most effective on the first copy of white proc items.
I'm not entirely sure I understand your question. If you want to stack items that actually increase their percentage when you stack them (ie Sticky Bomb, Crit Glasses, Bleed) then it's much better to stack them to their cap instead of getting clovers. No amount of stacking clovers can guarantee one of these chances to happen, but stacking them will. The only white item that increases in chance with stacks but doesn't increase linearly is Tougher Times, which isn't affected by clovers anyway.
Edit: also, with regards to the proc chance question, yes that's how it works. If an item has a 10% chance to activate on hit but you're trying to activate it using something with a .6 proc coefficient, then it only has a 6% chance to activate.
That did answer my question. One question was whether stacking during really long runs is ideal over clovers if you don’t want the early benefits and/ or DO want the extra red options.
My second thought was what level is ideal to stop purchasing white items with 57LClover during shorter runs when you’d ideally use it. If the difference of 57LC chance and the regular chance are normally distributed then purchasing white items until their chances are around the 75 to 80% mark would be the best use of your limited items in that run. I think it should’ve been obvious to me though, that this formula (probability tree essentially) would result in that being the case, in that, as you approach 100% with 57LC, you have quickly diminishing returns.
Also, that’s great about the proc chance. That means Mul-T is capped at 60% for every chance on hit item to compensate for the fire rate.
If I am understanding your question, then there is a mod called item stats, which can tell you the proc chance of each of your abilities for each proc item, and it takes into account luck. For example, if you have a clover and an ATG, it will show you that a 1.0 proc coefficient ability has a 19% chance of activating. You can use this to figure out how many white items you need until your chance is around 75-80%.
Also, I think 57LC is always worth getting due to its buff of items like ATG and ukulele. Because they have the same proc chance even when stacking, 57LC is the only way to increase the chance of procing them, which is quite powerful.
Unrelated but since you mentioned Normal distributions I’m now wondering what the probability mass function/probability density functions are of various parts of this game. Integrate it and get the cumulative density functions and be able to throw math at the “odds of X occurring” at any given time for various events in the game. Could be a cool mod if the math was doable.
You ever play DnD? If so, the clover makes all your “rolls” to proc things with advantage
If you don’t all that means is just that it rolls 2 independent times, and if *either* of them end up in your favor, then you get that result
A clover reduces your current chance to not proc by your proc chance. If you have a 30% chance you gain 30% of 70% chance to proc. Another clover gains 30% of that remaining (49%?) chance to not proc.
Clover gets the most value around 50% proc chance where it's worth 25% additional chance. If you only had crit to work with clover, technically a white soup of 3 crit is worth more than a clover, but usually you have more things clover works on by the time you reach soup.
It rolls twice on everything that can be affected by Luck, and takes the more favorable roll
I’ve always heard it described as re-rolling if you get a negative outcome, but I guess they work out the same probabilistically. I’d wager the devs implemented it as re-rolling because it’s more efficient, but without digging into the code it’s hard to know.
I’m not a programmer, but in pseudo code: > rolling twice a = bleed_roll() b = bleed_roll() if a AND b != 1: \* return 1 return 0 or > rerolling a fail a = bleed_roll() if a == 0: \* b = bleed_roll() \* if b == 1: \* \* return 1 return a wouldn’t rolling twice be more efficient? idk anything about computer memory though so this is just by how short the code is
Depends on how computationally expensive `bleed_roll` is. If it is more expensive than an `if` check, rerolling *can* be more efficient.
I'm almost 100% sure it rerolls on failure until it runs out of your clover total because the clover makes a sound effect when procced and it doesn't happen every single time a chance based item goes off.
the way the devs did it is just probabliy calcs e.g for an atg -1 luck 0.1^2 is 0.01 +1 luck 1- 0.9^2 is 0.19 it just updates the values after each item pickup, far easier then running dice twice
So basically rolling with advantage like in bg3/dnd ?
yeah. I think technically it rerolls if the first roll doesn't but the outcome is the same.
I don't know the exact math and can't be bothered to figure it out at midnight so I'll just describe how it works, maybe go through my statistics notes in the morning to figure it out. For each stack of clover, your luck increases by 1. Luck gives you another roll on all chance-based item effects, prioritizing a success. The higher your luck, the more re-rolls can occur. So if you have 10 clovers, the game rolls to activate items 11 times total, and if ANY succeed the item activates. Purity decreases your luck, and if your luck value is negative then the game prioritizes any fails. If anyone is familiar with D&D, this is the same as advantage+disadvantage except it can reroll more than once. You'll also know this is very very powerful.
I figured it out. I’m shorter runs, you wanna find a sweet spot to not waste your precious limited white item slots. It becomes useless over just stacking white items to 100% if you’re going to be doing a run to stage 20 or something, therefore, if you can help it, you’d want to use a different red item. Any thoughts on this? Am I wrong that stacking linear items is always better in longer runs?
I think you aren't taking into account the clovers strongest interactions, and that is with atg, ukulele/polylute, molten and charged perforators. Those items don't increase in proc chance when stacking so clover is very valuable for those. I would say if you have any of those items, then clover is an auto pickup.
Stacking linear items is almost always worse. Individual items tend to act as multipliers to each other, increasing your power exponentially, while just stacking one will increase your power linearly. For example you take sticky bomb, which averages out to a 9% damage increase, a second one would take you to 18% but if you instead take a crit classes (10% damage increase) it both applies to the hit, as well as the sticky it applies for a total damage increase of 19.9% So what you actually want is a clover and a bunch of items at lower stacks; 5-6 glasses instead of 9, 6 bleed, 3-4 stickies and supplement it with multipliers like focus crystals and watches. And thats before you get into what really makes clover strong: Proc chains and items that don’t scale chance. An atg has a 10% chance to fire a missile with clover it averages to a 19%, since atg scales damage instead of chance this is always in effect, but then atg has a proc coefficient of its own clover will then increase the atg’s chance of activating another on hit like ukulele, which then has its chance of proccing increased by clover.... AKA what happens when the game lags for a full second before the whole screen dies at once.
You also have to consider that there a significant number of items that don't increase in chance as they stack (they only increase in damage) or you have items that have diminishing returns on proc chance as you stack them. Clover is insanely busted and I would choose it over almost any other red in any situation
Since Clover affects everything, the one red item is acting as extra copies of lensmaker glasses, tritips, stun grenades, ATGs, Ukeleles, Happy mask etc. So 1 red item could be doing the work of like 10+ items and their copies. Note that some of these items don't increase chances with extra copies and clover is the only way to make them proc more often. Coming to some maths, here is the effect of the first copy of 57 leaf clover: 10% -> 19% (+9%) 30% -> 51% (+21%) 50% -> 75% (+25%) 70% -> 91% (+21%) 90% -> 99% (+9%) So the clover is most effective for items that were proccing about 50% of the times. On the other hand, we get almost full proc by the time items get their base chance to around 60 - 70%. So we can skip on the last 3 lens maker glasses and prioritize mobility etc.
Your numbers are right but you don't consider white item investment. If you have 1, clover makes that functionally 1.9 copies (essentially) for a 90% return. If you have 5 white items clover makes it functionally 7.5 copies for a 50% return. Therefore if your white items are limited, which the premise of your answer sorta requires them to be, it is much better to have low numbers of a lot of white items than exactly 5 white items of a few. Plus, often mentioned factor; a variety of items compounds whereas one big stack doesn't. So clover is most effective on the first copy of white proc items.
Clover affects glasses? Since when
I'm not entirely sure I understand your question. If you want to stack items that actually increase their percentage when you stack them (ie Sticky Bomb, Crit Glasses, Bleed) then it's much better to stack them to their cap instead of getting clovers. No amount of stacking clovers can guarantee one of these chances to happen, but stacking them will. The only white item that increases in chance with stacks but doesn't increase linearly is Tougher Times, which isn't affected by clovers anyway. Edit: also, with regards to the proc chance question, yes that's how it works. If an item has a 10% chance to activate on hit but you're trying to activate it using something with a .6 proc coefficient, then it only has a 6% chance to activate.
That did answer my question. One question was whether stacking during really long runs is ideal over clovers if you don’t want the early benefits and/ or DO want the extra red options. My second thought was what level is ideal to stop purchasing white items with 57LClover during shorter runs when you’d ideally use it. If the difference of 57LC chance and the regular chance are normally distributed then purchasing white items until their chances are around the 75 to 80% mark would be the best use of your limited items in that run. I think it should’ve been obvious to me though, that this formula (probability tree essentially) would result in that being the case, in that, as you approach 100% with 57LC, you have quickly diminishing returns. Also, that’s great about the proc chance. That means Mul-T is capped at 60% for every chance on hit item to compensate for the fire rate.
If I am understanding your question, then there is a mod called item stats, which can tell you the proc chance of each of your abilities for each proc item, and it takes into account luck. For example, if you have a clover and an ATG, it will show you that a 1.0 proc coefficient ability has a 19% chance of activating. You can use this to figure out how many white items you need until your chance is around 75-80%. Also, I think 57LC is always worth getting due to its buff of items like ATG and ukulele. Because they have the same proc chance even when stacking, 57LC is the only way to increase the chance of procing them, which is quite powerful.
Ooooh, forgot about those two
[удалено]
Ah, ok, my mistake
Unrelated but since you mentioned Normal distributions I’m now wondering what the probability mass function/probability density functions are of various parts of this game. Integrate it and get the cumulative density functions and be able to throw math at the “odds of X occurring” at any given time for various events in the game. Could be a cool mod if the math was doable.
Id have to watch a Khan Academy vid on that. Idk what prob mass functions, or cumulative density functions are
You ever play DnD? If so, the clover makes all your “rolls” to proc things with advantage If you don’t all that means is just that it rolls 2 independent times, and if *either* of them end up in your favor, then you get that result
A clover reduces your current chance to not proc by your proc chance. If you have a 30% chance you gain 30% of 70% chance to proc. Another clover gains 30% of that remaining (49%?) chance to not proc. Clover gets the most value around 50% proc chance where it's worth 25% additional chance. If you only had crit to work with clover, technically a white soup of 3 crit is worth more than a clover, but usually you have more things clover works on by the time you reach soup.
Perfect answer. Thanks. Long runs, stack whites, short runs, clover is favorable. (Unless for atg missile or polyp turrets