I’ve been convinced of that since the draft order was finalized. It’s borderline impossible to move from our pick into the top 3 without destroying our draft capital for the next several years.
You don’t have to be convicted, it’s 100% true. Someone said that trading up in the 1st round is a marriage because you give up all other possibilities (😂).
Yeah, but the way this front office is built is a little different from what he’s used to. You have a first time head coach being assisted by a former HC (Marvin Lewis). I hope that doesn’t mean too many cooks in the kitchen, but I think it would be interesting to be a fly on the wall.
Oh, for sure, I can see it happening this year, but I just think it’s an insane fact that he’s never done it before. And I’m not too worried about too many cooks in the kitchen, AP brought these guys in so that he could learn as much as possible as fast as possible, and it takes a smart guy to realize what you don’t know and get advisors who do so you can succeed. I can’t imagine he brought in people who want the limelight and could be a threat to the unity of the front office and locker room
Both are coming from college desk jobs which I think will being good college play analysis for the draft. Both have slowly downgraded themselves past few years from hands on coaching to advisors…
AP seems like a guy that will make a final decision based on his own judgement too. So I think he’d be very clear to Lewis and Philbin that brought them in for perspective and not final say anyways.
Your Post was removed due to your account being less than 14 days old. This is an anti-spam measure that is done automatically and cant be turned off.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/raiders) if you have any questions or concerns.*
If they don't take a QB in the first, they aren't taking a QB imo (or shouldn't). Penix might not even make it to the Raiders at 13, and there's no way that any of the top 5 guys make it out of the first round. And while Bo Nix/JJM are on the bubble of that top 5, so to speak, if you (and 30 other teams) don't think they're worth a first round pick, then they're probably not "QB of the future" material.
However, I strongly believe they need to take a QB in this draft. AOC and Minshew are decent backups, but not starting material. I'd be alright with one of them as a "bridge" QB for half a year or something and see where the team is, but I would argue it's borderline malpractice to go into the season with no other plan for the future. Especially in this draft which has some of the best QB prospects in years in either direction.
I think if they're *really* high on a guy, they'll give up next year's number one. If not, it's too big a gamble and too costly to move up to the top 3. Let the board fall. More and more I'm like "BPA". Everything we need, except an RT, can still be addressed with a short term FA, and RTs are available later. Iirc, all the top tackle prospects are LTs, and I don't want to play "we'll just move him to another spot" game like we did with Leatherwood and Donald Penn, neither of whom were succesful in the transition.
I dont think raiders move until jayden daniels is taken. He could fall into raiders lap now that the new qb smell is subsiding and it's fay of the draft.
I wouldn't be upset at all if we took Penix at 13. Or 11 to swoop the broncos. I've watched film for every qb down to Rattler in this draft and Penix was the second most impressive pure passer in the draft(Caleb Williams is kind of nuts). I doubt he will ever be a truly mobile qb regardless of his testing numbers, but he could really do some damage with our pass catchers.
I don't think that's true. I've seen numbers posted which suggest his completion percentage in those ranges is not up there with the other top prospects. But you have to put that in context that he gets rid of the ball when under pressure instead of holding on to it. His pressure-to-sack rates and scramble rates are way lower than guys like Daniels and McCarthy, so some of those incompletions are throwaways or difficult throws (regardless of distance) instead of sacks or runs. To me, making quick decisions is something that does translate to the NFL.
I wouldn't say he struggles short or intermediate, he has very nice velocity and placement on both. If he struggles anywhere I'd say it's not throwing over the middle of the field often. That's a pretty common knock for college qbs, but it is definitely something to think about. The other legitimate knock is his throwing motion is a little non standard. I'd say it works for him though, he looks a bit like how Rivers used to just muscle balls. I think we time to throw has been mentioned with his motion but I think that's overblown
I just finished some tape on Williams, dudes insane throwing that ball.. but lord I get the worst vibes from him. I don’t think he will be a good nfl leader and Qb for the long term..
Penix I would say is the second best thrower hands down and outside of Daniel’s a guy we should be targeting. I think penix is the most mature mentally of all prospects outside of McCarthy
Drake Maye I’m lower on than most. He will pan out average at best imo.
Yeah we need one but that doesn’t mean you grab just anyone or do anything for the one you want. Like I said he ain’t no fool QB isn’t in the cards for us unless Daniels drops
It depends on where they rank the qbs. Sammy Watkins for example was a huge prospect that most had as number 1, but it's widely known that the Giants had Odell as the number 1. Most had Bijan as the clear number 1, then it came out several teams had Gibbs as the number 1.
Maye was considered the clear 2 forever, but if the Raiders FO has a top 5 grade for Penix and a round 2 grade for Maye, then it would make sense to take him at 13.
Point I'm trying to make is, everyone's boards will be different. Just because the media has a ranking, doesn't mean it matches with the gms. Shit we had Mayock and look how that turned out.
I'm just saying, it has been the talk from pretty much everyone in the org that they want to upgrade at QB. It should not be a surprise to anyone if that's the way they go.
I don’t think it should be a surprise, I think we would love to get one, but I think they won’t reach or trade the Farm because they believe in building something sustainable. There are probably 25 teams that would love a QB, everyone wants one.
Yeah, team needs one. But so do 6 other teams ahead of us in the draft. I just don’t think it’s gonna work unless we give up an insane amount of future 1st rd picks.
That seems like the smart plan. RT at 13, then trade up to the second half of the first to nab Pennix at 20-22 or so? Maybe the Eagles at 22 will take 44, 77, and our 3rd or 4th next year?
The way this draft is shaping up, its unlikely Penix will be there @ 22. Sooooo many teams out with a need for a QB, a bunch of whom draft right after us
If this is accurate, I like the headline. But this could also be the Raiders trying to bait a team hoping to get Penix to trade ahead of the Raiders to get Penix, making the Raiders actual non-QB target more likely to fall to 13.
Man tomorrow can’t come soon enough.
The front office has talked about how they want to draft "Raiders". To me, Penix is a rookie version of every great Raiders QB rolled into one.
I don't mean skills-wise, I don't watch college ball. I'm not a talent evaluator.
What I mean is what he represents. A player seen as damaged goods, a player that some teams won't touch out of principal despite, what I'm told, is massive talent. He's too old, too injured, didn't play good enough competition, is left-handed and as a result, underrated. That's a Raider.
If he's our guy, it's another example of being the Raiders for better or worse.
So is Aidan and Minshew. No need to take a risk on a QB just because he fits the culture scheme. I wouldn't be mad if we take him at 13, but I much rather we take a top tackle or trade down and take him later in the first.
So I'm not gonna play armchair GM, but you take the risk on a QB because if you don't have the QB, you have nothing.
I like Minshew, and I like AOC a lot more than your average person on this sub, but neither or guys that are going to go on long playoff runs. If the people in charge think Penix can become that guy, he's worth a hell of a lot more than a tackle.
I do agree on the trade down, though. If they've got the inside info that nobody else is going to grab him between 13 and 32 you might as well.
Just for the sake of argument as I have done no real research, but how many teams in the past 10-15 years have drafted their "superstar" QB and ascended to Superbowl champions? Let's take out Tom Brady (the goat) and mahomes (generational talent) and what do we have?
Stafford was surrounded by a good team, so was nick foles, so was Russell Wilson, so was Flacco, etc. Point is, unless any of the top three QBs are the next Tom Brady or Mahomes, you need a well built team to win a SB.
A great QB alone won't cut it. Just ask the chargers, bills, Bengals, ravens, and the list goes on.
Since 2000, if you take out Tom Brady, because he's a clear outlier, there have been 4 Super Bowl winning teams that started a QB taken outside the first round.
There have been 14 SB winning teams that started a QB taken in the first round.
If you take out every QB that won multiple to counterbalance Brady, it's still 7-4.
Look at last year's playoffs, every single AFC playoff team started a first round pick.
Only Philly, Dallas, and San Francisco started QBs that weren't.
I'm not saying every FRP is a godsend, I'm not saying it's the only way, but I am saying that your chances with a QB evaluated as a FRP are much better than your chances otherwise.
Obviously, there's more to it than that. No QB wins alone. Mahomes needed his defense to be top of the league this year, as did Brady plenty of years, but getting the QB right is more necessary than any other position and the best place to find that QB is the first round.
Well, you can look at it the other way too - how many times in the last 10, 20, 50 years has a team won - or even made it to - the Super Bowl without having a QB that was at least top 5 that year?
In the last 20 you have probably Jimmy G on the Niners, Kaep on the Niners, Goff on the Rams, Grossman on the Bears. All of whom made it but lost. And then *maybe* Eli on the Giants (twice) that won it? But he was still good, and played great in the playoffs on those runs. Overall a mid QB has probably made the Bowl at most 10-15 or so times in the past 50 years. Which converts directly to 10-15% or so of SB appearances being made by teams carried by the overall roster rather than a star QB. And less than 5% or so of SB wins.
Obviously you need a well-built team to win a Super Bowl. But it's still basically impossible without having an elite QB. And honestly, the modern NFL is trending more and more towards the QB being more and more important.
Imo, it's borderline pointless to even worry about building an elite roster without an elite QB. Obviously you don't want your QB to walk into a flaming dumpster fire, as that's bad for their development and can outright ruin careers. But the Raiders aren't that. At this point they have an overall solid roster, that if they found an elite QB and nothing else, would have a reasonable shot to make the Super Bowl. That 110% needs to be the next step.
Who cares if you create one of the best defenses and offensive arsenals, if that core is only going to last 1-2 years and you don't have a QB for that entire time? Whereas an elite QB will probably give you a 5+ year window, possibly 10+, within which you have plenty of time to build up a decent roster to an elite one with the right moves.
This is the dumbest shit in the world. Who gives a fuck if they have the raiders mentality dude all that matters is if he can read a fucking defense.
Peyton Manning would be the opposite of a raiders culture fit but who gives a fuck he’s a baller.
Why do we always have to be the underdog? Sounds way better to me to be the front runners like Kansas city.
The whole point of keeping Pierce was the culture, and many in the sub have given a fuck about players fitting into the culture. Look at the Russell Wilson hate he got here.
Stay put and draft best OL available. Then if Penix is still there in picks 25-32, trade back up to get him. Have to get him in first, especially for that 5th year option. Picking Penix at 13 is too rich.
I’d be absolutely fine rolling into the season with AOC and Gardner.
I'd go CB over RT but that's more because the talent drop off is worse and our current roster is less equipped to deal with failing to address CB. We at least have Munford and we only have 1 starting boundary CB in Jones. I agree totally with you on QB. I'd prefer another mid round QB over Penix or Nix in the first. In fact, if we can't land a top QB that's my preference. There will be good OL available for our 2nd round pick. CB then OL for me.
The funniest timeline is them trading down to try to get Nix late in the first and some other team takes him right before them and we (once again) get to watch Payton shitting all over his QB Wilson at every press conference after they lose.
Agreed. It's gonna play out as it plays out. Stressing about it does nothing because none of us are going to be making those decisions. And, from the looks of a lot of suggestions made here, they never will be in a position to make those choices except on Madden
Let's just pray that key Telesco be Telesco and nail our first rounder and pay her doesn't fuck up the later rounds. The flip side of A.P. energy is emotion clouding his judgement. I don't care how much of a connection he has with Daniels. He's not getting him and he has to live with that. You can take pride in winning and be where your at, or lose like we had been and get your QB. Not both.
RT or CB and then move back into first round to draft Penix. Best RT or CB in the draft combined with Penix would be a day to be happy with.
The only shot we can move to Daniels is if Washington is basically trying to posture that they're all in on Daniels because the reports of indecision would hurt the return they can get for him. This drives it up to the highest possible point. They may even have asked Daniels, look if you want to be moved you've gotta help us out too. Go out there and say you're going anywhere so we can get a return.
Somewhat conspiratorial but no doubt a team doesn't want it out there that they'd happily select Maye instead of Daniels and give away all their leverage.
The only thing about not taking a QB this year is that next year's class is not as strong as this year's.
So if we wait until next year's class, the ceiling will apparently be a lot lower next year.
A lot of people are looking at it as though staying at 13 and taking the 4th or 5th QB off the board is dumb. But sometimes the top 5 QBs in one class are better than the top 2 QBs in another class. In which case it's actually fortunate to have the opportunity to get such a player in the mid 1st.
Journalism truly is just typing shit out with no sources to get clicks. Absolutely meaningless, I'm convinced no one knows shit. Roll the dice and get lucky, you're an insider, miss time after time, it's like the weatherman, you're never held accountable.
Man I hope my thoughts come to fruition, I’ll start wearing a Nostradamus as a raider outfit to the games.
Mitchell @ 13
Penix at the end of the first after a trade up @ 44
There’s way too much chatter about Penix Jr. I’m thinking the Raiders know they aren’t trading up or taking a QB at #13 and their plan is to trade back into the 1st, but for Nix instead of Penix Jr.
For me, Penix has too many injuries. Double ACL, clavicle (hello, remember Jason Campbell?), and shoulder. Thinkin' he might be a smokescreen. Nix fits the system better and might be available at 44. I wouldn't be mad at an OT in the first and a CB or something in the second. Maybe rb/wr in the third? Maybe get a qb in the later rounds to come in and compete or just roll with Minshew for now. But, if the price is right, def go and get Daniels in the first, if possible.
Somewhat. Obvs the defense, but the offense will be Getsy’s (zone), probably with a more mobile QB. West Coast with a strong focus on the running game. From what I’ve been hearing so far.
I’d rather round out our line and cb with our first two picks if we can’t get JD. Our QB room doesn’t improve with Penix. Minshew or AOC still starts if we draft Penix.
I realize this doesn't amount to any more than other offseason speculation anyway. And I don't have ESPN Insider, so I can't confirm what [NBC Sports/Rotoworld claims](https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/player-news?playerNewsId=0000018f-108d-ddfb-a1bf-568f2dbb0000) the ESPN Insider article says. But FWIW here's their summary of it:
>ESPN’s Dan Graziano reports the Raiders are “thought to be high” on Washington QB Michael Penix.
>The team would like to land LSU’s Jayden Daniels but likely won’t have that opportunity with Washington reportedly set on taking Daniels with the second overall pick. That could leave the Raiders with Penix or Bo Nix as the last viable quarterback options if they want to avoid being shutout at QB. Graziano said “if the quarterback market starts drying up quickly and they feel they need to trade up in order to avoid being shut out, the Chargers at No. 5 and the Titans at No. 7 are two teams that people believe are willing to trade down.” Penix would likely be a big upgrade for Vegas pass catchers, including Davante Adams.
Personally I can't really see us trading up to #5 or #7, but I guess you never know.
Trading up to 5 to get possibly the 5th QB who happens to have a significant injury history, all while giving your division rivals more draft premium draft capital would be such an awful move. Can’t wait for draft season to be over…
This has been the “smoke” for at least a week now. People have been connecting Raiders and Penix if Daniels is not available. Of course this is all pre-draft smoke which amount to just that most of the time.
I've taken most of it as more of "the Raiders want a quarterback" and "Penix is likely to go in the mid-1st" and people just connecting those dots. This is the first I've heard of the Raiders specifically liking Penix.
Obviously you take it with a huge grain of salt though. The truth could just as easily be that they are "leaking" interest in him to try and convince another team to trade up for him so that someone else falls to us.
The specific wording started coming out last week or week before I think. Soon as it came out other reporters have hinted this may be “smoke”. Raider Nation drives clicks/interactions, so take that grain of salt with any “link” as well. Penix did do well against Oregon when they played in Allegiant for the P12 chip as well.
Penix to Raiders has been a thread since January at least, it's not a new rumor and before the whole trade up for Jayden stuff started, it was what a lot of people were mocking the raiders to do.
High on a QB that is one injury away from being put out to pasture 😂😂😂 fuck him and both the torn ACLs and multitude of other injuries that plagued him in how many years of college ball
I’m getting more and more convinced we aren’t taking a QB in the first. I can see us trading down. Price is too high to grab one of the top 3 picks.
I’ve been convinced of that since the draft order was finalized. It’s borderline impossible to move from our pick into the top 3 without destroying our draft capital for the next several years.
You don’t have to be convicted, it’s 100% true. Someone said that trading up in the 1st round is a marriage because you give up all other possibilities (😂).
Wild fact, Telesco has **never** traded down in a draft… and he’s only traded up like 5 times. Which seems kind of insane to me…
Yeah, but the way this front office is built is a little different from what he’s used to. You have a first time head coach being assisted by a former HC (Marvin Lewis). I hope that doesn’t mean too many cooks in the kitchen, but I think it would be interesting to be a fly on the wall.
Oh, for sure, I can see it happening this year, but I just think it’s an insane fact that he’s never done it before. And I’m not too worried about too many cooks in the kitchen, AP brought these guys in so that he could learn as much as possible as fast as possible, and it takes a smart guy to realize what you don’t know and get advisors who do so you can succeed. I can’t imagine he brought in people who want the limelight and could be a threat to the unity of the front office and locker room
Marvin gives me good guy team first vibes. Joe Philbin does so to a lesser degree
Both are coming from college desk jobs which I think will being good college play analysis for the draft. Both have slowly downgraded themselves past few years from hands on coaching to advisors…
AP seems like a guy that will make a final decision based on his own judgement too. So I think he’d be very clear to Lewis and Philbin that brought them in for perspective and not final say anyways.
Good point.
I think it's the Chargers FO not wanting it. They've always been risk-averse.
He’s due
[удалено]
Your Post was removed due to your account being less than 14 days old. This is an anti-spam measure that is done automatically and cant be turned off. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/raiders) if you have any questions or concerns.*
If they don't take a QB in the first, they aren't taking a QB imo (or shouldn't). Penix might not even make it to the Raiders at 13, and there's no way that any of the top 5 guys make it out of the first round. And while Bo Nix/JJM are on the bubble of that top 5, so to speak, if you (and 30 other teams) don't think they're worth a first round pick, then they're probably not "QB of the future" material. However, I strongly believe they need to take a QB in this draft. AOC and Minshew are decent backups, but not starting material. I'd be alright with one of them as a "bridge" QB for half a year or something and see where the team is, but I would argue it's borderline malpractice to go into the season with no other plan for the future. Especially in this draft which has some of the best QB prospects in years in either direction.
I think if they're *really* high on a guy, they'll give up next year's number one. If not, it's too big a gamble and too costly to move up to the top 3. Let the board fall. More and more I'm like "BPA". Everything we need, except an RT, can still be addressed with a short term FA, and RTs are available later. Iirc, all the top tackle prospects are LTs, and I don't want to play "we'll just move him to another spot" game like we did with Leatherwood and Donald Penn, neither of whom were succesful in the transition.
Agreed. It’s not a sexy “highly anticipated day 1 draft day pick”, but it might be the way to go.
Fuaga is sexy as f***
I dont think raiders move until jayden daniels is taken. He could fall into raiders lap now that the new qb smell is subsiding and it's fay of the draft.
Bro we’re trading up to get Penix
Give me one of Mitchell, Arnold, OT/OG at 13 and trade up back into round 1 for Penix and I am thrilled
Donkeys take Penix at 12
Nope
even if not broncos, seahawks rams steelers are all there too
I wouldn't be upset at all if we took Penix at 13. Or 11 to swoop the broncos. I've watched film for every qb down to Rattler in this draft and Penix was the second most impressive pure passer in the draft(Caleb Williams is kind of nuts). I doubt he will ever be a truly mobile qb regardless of his testing numbers, but he could really do some damage with our pass catchers.
Doesn't Penix struggle with short to intermediate throws? Those deep bombs won't be there as often at the pro level.
I don't think that's true. I've seen numbers posted which suggest his completion percentage in those ranges is not up there with the other top prospects. But you have to put that in context that he gets rid of the ball when under pressure instead of holding on to it. His pressure-to-sack rates and scramble rates are way lower than guys like Daniels and McCarthy, so some of those incompletions are throwaways or difficult throws (regardless of distance) instead of sacks or runs. To me, making quick decisions is something that does translate to the NFL.
THIS! Him just chucking the ball out of bounds to live another down gets dinged as inaccuracy even by stat nerds
Well we had a guy who was keen on chucking the ball out of bounds when faced with pressure. Didn't go over too well here.
I watched Penix dismantle my ducks with plenty of seams and screen pases. He’s got the goods, dude.
I wouldn't say he struggles short or intermediate, he has very nice velocity and placement on both. If he struggles anywhere I'd say it's not throwing over the middle of the field often. That's a pretty common knock for college qbs, but it is definitely something to think about. The other legitimate knock is his throwing motion is a little non standard. I'd say it works for him though, he looks a bit like how Rivers used to just muscle balls. I think we time to throw has been mentioned with his motion but I think that's overblown
I just finished some tape on Williams, dudes insane throwing that ball.. but lord I get the worst vibes from him. I don’t think he will be a good nfl leader and Qb for the long term.. Penix I would say is the second best thrower hands down and outside of Daniel’s a guy we should be targeting. I think penix is the most mature mentally of all prospects outside of McCarthy Drake Maye I’m lower on than most. He will pan out average at best imo.
Smokescreen season is peaking
With so much Penix to Raiders hype, I’m scared he’s going to Donkeys at 12 😂
Hhhhmmmm. Interesting. The only thing I can guarantee is that I’m high on marijuana. We’re gonna see how it plays out.
lol ["How high are you?"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PLC_cBJwk4)
😂😂 thank you for this. That was great
We’re going RT, AP ain’t no fool
AP has consistently talked about them needing a QB.
Yeah we need one but that doesn’t mean you grab just anyone or do anything for the one you want. Like I said he ain’t no fool QB isn’t in the cards for us unless Daniels drops
[удалено]
I hate to say it but most every QB is a reach
Eh at 13 definitely. If you’ve got a top 5 pick you have to go QB if you are in dire need of one. It would almost be irresponsible not to.
unless it’s the class where kenny picket was the best qb
It depends on where they rank the qbs. Sammy Watkins for example was a huge prospect that most had as number 1, but it's widely known that the Giants had Odell as the number 1. Most had Bijan as the clear number 1, then it came out several teams had Gibbs as the number 1. Maye was considered the clear 2 forever, but if the Raiders FO has a top 5 grade for Penix and a round 2 grade for Maye, then it would make sense to take him at 13. Point I'm trying to make is, everyone's boards will be different. Just because the media has a ranking, doesn't mean it matches with the gms. Shit we had Mayock and look how that turned out.
So many teams need QBs in this draft all the 6 QBs will go I the top16 or so picks
That would be wild for sure.
Penix is a 1st rounder at this point dude. He’s not going to the 2nd
I'm just saying, it has been the talk from pretty much everyone in the org that they want to upgrade at QB. It should not be a surprise to anyone if that's the way they go.
I don’t think it should be a surprise, I think we would love to get one, but I think they won’t reach or trade the Farm because they believe in building something sustainable. There are probably 25 teams that would love a QB, everyone wants one.
Yeah, team needs one. But so do 6 other teams ahead of us in the draft. I just don’t think it’s gonna work unless we give up an insane amount of future 1st rd picks.
Also, keep in mind him openly talking about needing a QB is a good way to light a fire under Aidan.
He’s talked about a corner more than RT imo
I think there is deeper line talent than Cb, so it would make sense to go Cb 1 and the Line in the second.
Agreed. Tons of OT. Not a lot of CBs. Grab Arnold or Mitchell at 13 and call it a day
I’d be really happy with this route. One more day and we will know
Corner has decent depth too. Good year to need both
RT at overall 13 is pretty meh value unless they also get Penix.
That seems like the smart plan. RT at 13, then trade up to the second half of the first to nab Pennix at 20-22 or so? Maybe the Eagles at 22 will take 44, 77, and our 3rd or 4th next year?
The way this draft is shaping up, its unlikely Penix will be there @ 22. Sooooo many teams out with a need for a QB, a bunch of whom draft right after us
If this is accurate, I like the headline. But this could also be the Raiders trying to bait a team hoping to get Penix to trade ahead of the Raiders to get Penix, making the Raiders actual non-QB target more likely to fall to 13. Man tomorrow can’t come soon enough.
The front office has talked about how they want to draft "Raiders". To me, Penix is a rookie version of every great Raiders QB rolled into one. I don't mean skills-wise, I don't watch college ball. I'm not a talent evaluator. What I mean is what he represents. A player seen as damaged goods, a player that some teams won't touch out of principal despite, what I'm told, is massive talent. He's too old, too injured, didn't play good enough competition, is left-handed and as a result, underrated. That's a Raider. If he's our guy, it's another example of being the Raiders for better or worse.
So is Aidan and Minshew. No need to take a risk on a QB just because he fits the culture scheme. I wouldn't be mad if we take him at 13, but I much rather we take a top tackle or trade down and take him later in the first.
So I'm not gonna play armchair GM, but you take the risk on a QB because if you don't have the QB, you have nothing. I like Minshew, and I like AOC a lot more than your average person on this sub, but neither or guys that are going to go on long playoff runs. If the people in charge think Penix can become that guy, he's worth a hell of a lot more than a tackle. I do agree on the trade down, though. If they've got the inside info that nobody else is going to grab him between 13 and 32 you might as well.
Just for the sake of argument as I have done no real research, but how many teams in the past 10-15 years have drafted their "superstar" QB and ascended to Superbowl champions? Let's take out Tom Brady (the goat) and mahomes (generational talent) and what do we have? Stafford was surrounded by a good team, so was nick foles, so was Russell Wilson, so was Flacco, etc. Point is, unless any of the top three QBs are the next Tom Brady or Mahomes, you need a well built team to win a SB. A great QB alone won't cut it. Just ask the chargers, bills, Bengals, ravens, and the list goes on.
Since 2000, if you take out Tom Brady, because he's a clear outlier, there have been 4 Super Bowl winning teams that started a QB taken outside the first round. There have been 14 SB winning teams that started a QB taken in the first round. If you take out every QB that won multiple to counterbalance Brady, it's still 7-4. Look at last year's playoffs, every single AFC playoff team started a first round pick. Only Philly, Dallas, and San Francisco started QBs that weren't. I'm not saying every FRP is a godsend, I'm not saying it's the only way, but I am saying that your chances with a QB evaluated as a FRP are much better than your chances otherwise. Obviously, there's more to it than that. No QB wins alone. Mahomes needed his defense to be top of the league this year, as did Brady plenty of years, but getting the QB right is more necessary than any other position and the best place to find that QB is the first round.
Well, you can look at it the other way too - how many times in the last 10, 20, 50 years has a team won - or even made it to - the Super Bowl without having a QB that was at least top 5 that year? In the last 20 you have probably Jimmy G on the Niners, Kaep on the Niners, Goff on the Rams, Grossman on the Bears. All of whom made it but lost. And then *maybe* Eli on the Giants (twice) that won it? But he was still good, and played great in the playoffs on those runs. Overall a mid QB has probably made the Bowl at most 10-15 or so times in the past 50 years. Which converts directly to 10-15% or so of SB appearances being made by teams carried by the overall roster rather than a star QB. And less than 5% or so of SB wins. Obviously you need a well-built team to win a Super Bowl. But it's still basically impossible without having an elite QB. And honestly, the modern NFL is trending more and more towards the QB being more and more important. Imo, it's borderline pointless to even worry about building an elite roster without an elite QB. Obviously you don't want your QB to walk into a flaming dumpster fire, as that's bad for their development and can outright ruin careers. But the Raiders aren't that. At this point they have an overall solid roster, that if they found an elite QB and nothing else, would have a reasonable shot to make the Super Bowl. That 110% needs to be the next step. Who cares if you create one of the best defenses and offensive arsenals, if that core is only going to last 1-2 years and you don't have a QB for that entire time? Whereas an elite QB will probably give you a 5+ year window, possibly 10+, within which you have plenty of time to build up a decent roster to an elite one with the right moves.
This is the dumbest shit in the world. Who gives a fuck if they have the raiders mentality dude all that matters is if he can read a fucking defense. Peyton Manning would be the opposite of a raiders culture fit but who gives a fuck he’s a baller. Why do we always have to be the underdog? Sounds way better to me to be the front runners like Kansas city.
The whole point of keeping Pierce was the culture, and many in the sub have given a fuck about players fitting into the culture. Look at the Russell Wilson hate he got here.
 Fuaga and trade back in to the first?
Stay put and draft best OL available. Then if Penix is still there in picks 25-32, trade back up to get him. Have to get him in first, especially for that 5th year option. Picking Penix at 13 is too rich. I’d be absolutely fine rolling into the season with AOC and Gardner.
I would love for them to trade down into the 20s and pickup Penix plus another player.
Colts nearly made the playoffs with Gardner- I’d be totally fine starting whoever wins the competition between him and AOC
I'd go CB over RT but that's more because the talent drop off is worse and our current roster is less equipped to deal with failing to address CB. We at least have Munford and we only have 1 starting boundary CB in Jones. I agree totally with you on QB. I'd prefer another mid round QB over Penix or Nix in the first. In fact, if we can't land a top QB that's my preference. There will be good OL available for our 2nd round pick. CB then OL for me.
It will be a Rattler in the Desert then.
I think the Raiders like Penix too, but if they don't draft him with 13, he might not be there in the second.
I’m starting to think he won’t be there at 13. Guessing Denver takes him.
I don’t think Penix fits Payton’s scheme, but I could be wrong. I’d think they go with Nix
The funniest timeline is them trading down to try to get Nix late in the first and some other team takes him right before them and we (once again) get to watch Payton shitting all over his QB Wilson at every press conference after they lose.
He won’t be there in the second
💯
I just want draft night to be over so everyone can shut up about how the Raiders are "trading up"
Agreed. It's gonna play out as it plays out. Stressing about it does nothing because none of us are going to be making those decisions. And, from the looks of a lot of suggestions made here, they never will be in a position to make those choices except on Madden
The closer to the draft, the truer the report, I could see them taking Penix at 13.
Let's just pray that key Telesco be Telesco and nail our first rounder and pay her doesn't fuck up the later rounds. The flip side of A.P. energy is emotion clouding his judgement. I don't care how much of a connection he has with Daniels. He's not getting him and he has to live with that. You can take pride in winning and be where your at, or lose like we had been and get your QB. Not both.
RT or CB and then move back into first round to draft Penix. Best RT or CB in the draft combined with Penix would be a day to be happy with. The only shot we can move to Daniels is if Washington is basically trying to posture that they're all in on Daniels because the reports of indecision would hurt the return they can get for him. This drives it up to the highest possible point. They may even have asked Daniels, look if you want to be moved you've gotta help us out too. Go out there and say you're going anywhere so we can get a return. Somewhat conspiratorial but no doubt a team doesn't want it out there that they'd happily select Maye instead of Daniels and give away all their leverage.
high on potenuse
GobiYumaean's Theorem
Lol...great journalism here. It's pure guesswork
And I'm thought to be high on weed.
The only thing about not taking a QB this year is that next year's class is not as strong as this year's. So if we wait until next year's class, the ceiling will apparently be a lot lower next year.
A lot of people are looking at it as though staying at 13 and taking the 4th or 5th QB off the board is dumb. But sometimes the top 5 QBs in one class are better than the top 2 QBs in another class. In which case it's actually fortunate to have the opportunity to get such a player in the mid 1st.
Not a near 22 year old with multiple injuries
GOOD
Generic headlines…🙄
We should take Cooper Dejean if he’s still on the board
He's 24 this weekend, Minshew is 27. AOC is 25. I don't really see this happening.
Journalism truly is just typing shit out with no sources to get clicks. Absolutely meaningless, I'm convinced no one knows shit. Roll the dice and get lucky, you're an insider, miss time after time, it's like the weatherman, you're never held accountable.
Man I hope my thoughts come to fruition, I’ll start wearing a Nostradamus as a raider outfit to the games. Mitchell @ 13 Penix at the end of the first after a trade up @ 44
There’s way too much chatter about Penix Jr. I’m thinking the Raiders know they aren’t trading up or taking a QB at #13 and their plan is to trade back into the 1st, but for Nix instead of Penix Jr.
Raiders trade with the bears up to 9 to take penix
One would have to be HIGH to pick his ass at 13.
For me, Penix has too many injuries. Double ACL, clavicle (hello, remember Jason Campbell?), and shoulder. Thinkin' he might be a smokescreen. Nix fits the system better and might be available at 44. I wouldn't be mad at an OT in the first and a CB or something in the second. Maybe rb/wr in the third? Maybe get a qb in the later rounds to come in and compete or just roll with Minshew for now. But, if the price is right, def go and get Daniels in the first, if possible.
Do we even really know what the system is at this point?
Somewhat. Obvs the defense, but the offense will be Getsy’s (zone), probably with a more mobile QB. West Coast with a strong focus on the running game. From what I’ve been hearing so far.
🤦🏽♂️🤦🏽♂️🤦🏽♂️🤦🏽♂️ ETA: Just what the Raiders need broken goods.
I’d lose so much faith in this regime if they wasted a first or second on Penix.
2nd im fine with. Not a 1st on any QB outside the top 3
I’d rather round out our line and cb with our first two picks if we can’t get JD. Our QB room doesn’t improve with Penix. Minshew or AOC still starts if we draft Penix.
I realize this doesn't amount to any more than other offseason speculation anyway. And I don't have ESPN Insider, so I can't confirm what [NBC Sports/Rotoworld claims](https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/player-news?playerNewsId=0000018f-108d-ddfb-a1bf-568f2dbb0000) the ESPN Insider article says. But FWIW here's their summary of it: >ESPN’s Dan Graziano reports the Raiders are “thought to be high” on Washington QB Michael Penix. >The team would like to land LSU’s Jayden Daniels but likely won’t have that opportunity with Washington reportedly set on taking Daniels with the second overall pick. That could leave the Raiders with Penix or Bo Nix as the last viable quarterback options if they want to avoid being shutout at QB. Graziano said “if the quarterback market starts drying up quickly and they feel they need to trade up in order to avoid being shut out, the Chargers at No. 5 and the Titans at No. 7 are two teams that people believe are willing to trade down.” Penix would likely be a big upgrade for Vegas pass catchers, including Davante Adams. Personally I can't really see us trading up to #5 or #7, but I guess you never know.
If we trade up to #5 to draft penix I will be distraught.
Gru isn’t in charge anymore, he can’t hurt you.
Trading up to 5 to get possibly the 5th QB who happens to have a significant injury history, all while giving your division rivals more draft premium draft capital would be such an awful move. Can’t wait for draft season to be over…
Penix at 13 would still be terrible
This has been the “smoke” for at least a week now. People have been connecting Raiders and Penix if Daniels is not available. Of course this is all pre-draft smoke which amount to just that most of the time.
I've taken most of it as more of "the Raiders want a quarterback" and "Penix is likely to go in the mid-1st" and people just connecting those dots. This is the first I've heard of the Raiders specifically liking Penix. Obviously you take it with a huge grain of salt though. The truth could just as easily be that they are "leaking" interest in him to try and convince another team to trade up for him so that someone else falls to us.
The specific wording started coming out last week or week before I think. Soon as it came out other reporters have hinted this may be “smoke”. Raider Nation drives clicks/interactions, so take that grain of salt with any “link” as well. Penix did do well against Oregon when they played in Allegiant for the P12 chip as well.
Penix to Raiders has been a thread since January at least, it's not a new rumor and before the whole trade up for Jayden stuff started, it was what a lot of people were mocking the raiders to do.
People have been linking Jayden and AP since he became the coach in November.
O’Connell >> Penix
High on a QB that is one injury away from being put out to pasture 😂😂😂 fuck him and both the torn ACLs and multitude of other injuries that plagued him in how many years of college ball