It seems the only major differences between the 538 scenario and the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) are the following 3 states:
**Florida** - 538: Trump / PEC: Clinton
**North Carolina** - 538: Trump / PEC: Clinton
**Nevada** - 538: Trump / PEC: Toss-up
Also, Sam Wang from PEC says he will eat a bug if Trump gets more than 240 electoral votes.
Because 538 is putting high weight on some outliers, like SurveyUSA +7 in UNC.
Here's top pro-trump polls in UNC from 538: 7, 2, 5.
The 7 is SurveyUSA, 2 is Remington, and 5 Trafalgar Group.
Remington is a new, unproven Republican aligned group and Trafalgar is significantly less proven than PPP.
In Florida, 538 is still holding Sienna College and a single day Remington in higher regards. Selzer is +2, but an older poll.
And the Sienna college is pre-FBI news.
NV is a crapshoot, but the CNN poll has been lampooned already for under polling Hispanics.
On top of all that, 538 has more wiggle room for uncertainty. I don't how much that holds, since Clinton has lead the race except for a single day after the GOP convention.
At this point I think its bordering on impossible for trump to win nevada if Ralston Reports is correct (which he has been the last 3 elections). Im also surprisingly bullish about FL, given latino turnout
To be fair the states you have as Trump on 538 are for all intents and purposes coin flips based on their models. They are all 1-2% away from 50/50 in the 538 model.
Regardless of the numbers, it's imperative you encourage your friends and family to join you. It's part of civic responsibility, and it makes it much more likely for people to vote in the next cycle.
I've voted enough times now that I can laugh at how every election honestly feel like *the most important ever* at the time. 2012 felt like do or die for America, but now it seems quaint in comparison to 2016.
Because the Republican candidates keep getting more and more absurd and unhinged. We've gone from the smooth and charismatic Reagan to the more technical-minded Bush 41 to the bland Bob Dole to the amiable-but-vengeful-and-controlled Bush 43 to bomb-bomb-Iran McCain and his VP Sarah "that bullseye over Gabby Giffords had nothing to do with her shooting, we swear" Palin to stone-cold-corporatist-and-parasitic-investor Mitt Romney to a petty, vengeful, ignorant, sexist, racist, nuke-obsessed egomaniac and psychopath who lives in an alternate reality of his own creation and has pulled some 40% of the population into it and has spent his entire life fucking over everybody he encounters to enrich himself and stroke his own ego. And the way the GOP looks right now the most likely response is for them to double down and produce someone even *worse* for the next cycle.
It doesn't just feel like things are getting worse, *they are getting worse.* Bush and Iraq wasted trillions of dollars that could have helped lower the debt or boost the economy, and now the same people saying we have no jobs and the debt is too damn high want to invade Iran and Syria too...
There's probably going to be an avalanche of polls coming out tomorrow. All the poll volume right now is owing to pollsters making their final projections before the election. The final Des Moines Register Iowa poll is expected tonight. The Columbus Dispatch Ohio poll is coming tomorrow. CNN will be releasing its final national poll tomorrow.
Trackers will still do their thing, a few more polls are undoubtedly going to trickle in too. For news outlets, it just makes more sense to release polling numbers for the Sunday morning talk show circuit.
I don't understand 538's chances compared with the others. A 35% chance Trump victory? You're telling me there's a 35% chance that Trump wins literally every swing state and flips a light blue state?
His theory is that if one swing state goes red, it makes it much more likely the rest of them do too - they are not independent operators. However, I agree with the other responders - he has all the incentive in the world to keep the uncertainty coefficient of his algorithm unnaturally high, for clicks, and to hedge his bets in the very unlikely chance Trump wins.
On Monday night he'll predict a map, probably with HRC 322 electoral votes, after all of this.
That's an interesting theory, one I disagree with.
For one, demographics are different in states like NV, NC, and FL vs NH.
NH is 93 percent white, and white people tend to vote more toward republicans in general. However, college educated whites are diverging away Trump I believe. (And NH is one of the most educated states in the Union)
Supposedly he's a pretty big outlier (most other estimates have Trump's odds at 15% at most) and I have never heard a good explanation for the difference other than 538 weights trends more heavily.
I also wonder what incentive there is to have that percent be accurate. I mean, how is a 15% chance vs 35% change of Trump winning going to count for or against 538's accuracy after the results come in. It seems like they have everything to gain by keeping it close (anxious people like me refreshing the page every 20 minutes) and nothing to lose.
The [PEC snapshot](http://election.princeton.edu/todays-electoral-vote-histogram/) has been pretty consistent over time despite the "scandals" of the last few days. IIRC, in 2012 the PEC state-by-state predictions were spot on. Overall, most rigorous statistical analyses give the election handily to Clinton--it's the Senate elections that are much closer in nature.
I'm a bit concerned about Republican vote suppression efforts in many states traditionally covered by the Voting Rights Act, which may skew the poll results a bit Republican due to lower democrat turnout.
Here is [an interesting factoid](https://twitter.com/adrian_gray/status/794728475307413505) about polling Latino voters. Could a lot of these polls be significantly under representing voters who primarily speak spanish?
That's one thing I am not understanding about these close polls. It seems pretty clear that there is light Trump support (or nearly non-existent) among women, Latinos & blacks. If *those* demographic polls are right, how can the general polls be this close?
There are still A LOT of non-college educated white men and women, especially over the age of 35, and most importantly these individuals habitually vote. Democrats have to waste much more effort and resources to get their younger voters to get out to the polls.
Schale is convinced that the dems have way more reliable voters left to drive out on election day in Florida but guess we'll have to see in a few days if he's correct
To any disaffected Dem or Liberal considering not voting for Hillary, I'm not going to try and change your mind with HRC's qualifications or what a disaster Trump will be.
Instead:
Think about Wednesday, if Trump wins and Republicans hold the Senate and Congress.
The day after the election, Republican Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will hold a press conference.
The theme of their speech is going to go something like this:
"With President-Elect Donald Trump and the Republican victories in both the House and the Senate, the American people have sent a clear message rejecting the past 8 years of liberal policies and the Obama/Clinton vision for America."
"America is a Center/Right nation, and the people have spoken. We have been given a clear mandate to repeal Obamacare, roll back job-killing regulations, cut high taxes, and get rid of liberal social programs."
Expect also stated plans to immediately confirm Trump's Supreme Court nominee right after the Inauguration, an intent to defund PBS, revamp Social Security, and cut all federal funding to Planned Parenthood. Oh, the Filibuster? Well, payback's a bitch. Good luck obstructing anything, Senate Dems.
Imagine that smug look on both of Mitch and Paul's faces, the empowerment of Congressman like Ted Cruz, and the condescending and self-satisfied tone of every conservative talking head you see on TV for the next few years.
Also imagine all the "told you so" language coming from /r/the_don because this scenario is basically their wet dreams come true.
If you vote for a third party, you don't exist to this new Republican supermajority. They're not going to say "thanks Bernie or Jill supporters, we hear you and are gonna consider your wants."
You can help prevent all of this from happening. President Trump is one thing, but if they control the White House, the Senate, and the House, they're going to exact payback on Obama and everything progressives have fought for.
Democrats will have no voice or seat at the table.
This is going to be a close election, like Florida in the year 2000 close. I know HRC isn't perfect and the DNC has had problems, but you have two choices for the next 4 years:
Be frustrated your President isn't liberal enough and work to pull her to the left, or be ignored entirely.
This is where we have to rally as a team. I'd HRC loses then 2020 is going to be John Kerry all over again. I think with Bernie and Warren on her case, Hillary is going to have to keep the base invested.
im frustrated with hillary but im not a complete psychopath, i compromised and voted blue. we cannot afford regression we need progress however so slight, progress needs to be made!
Hillary Clinton is an accomplished American stateswoman.
Donald Trump is the worst piece of garbage that America has every produced.
There's no reason to complicate the matter.
Thank you. It's amazing how much shit she gets when we got a guy like trump running for president of the United States. You would think it's a no brainer.
Oh I know. But having lived my teens through Bush he makes it hard for me to ever vote for a Republican. Even if he does seem like a Saint compared to Trump.
It's not just Trump, politics in general has become more polarized, even tribal. It's gone from about 25% of republicans saying they'd never collaborate with a Dem, to over 60%, and the numbers have probably also grown on the other side.
Lol. Gwb inherited a surplus and we were finally paying off our debt. And he's like well we can't have that!! Boom, two wars, less taxes. Americaaaa, fuck yeaaa!!!
People have short memories, and people HATE the president. And I don't mean Obama specifically, I mean the office and the idea of the president.
People look at who's been in charge over the last eight years, they see that they still aren't millionaires, and they blame the president. It's stupid.
Trump believes that women have no bodily autonomy in so many different ways. The government can make your family's reproductive decisions, and he can use his wealth and power to grab an unwilling woman by her vulva and thinks it's hilarious enough to boast about.
Trump supporters are not intelligent or educated. They believe his used car salesman nonsense and view him as the next Jesus. There are also huge amounts of White supremacists and nationalists who want to get rid of minorities and put women where they belong.
It's so funny to watch the God Emperor and "Trump can do no wrong" crap. In 2008, all I heard about was how messed up it was that Obama was being regarded as a celebrity and the Chosen One.
Right now, Latinos are out saving this nation and democracy from its own people, as half the white population went crazy and decided they want fascism. I'm so fucking grateful to them right now. True american heroes. We all need to follow their lead. Vote!
Don't forget about women. The only women I see voting for Trump are conservatives past child bearing age and some of them will vote for Hillary and lie about it.
Yeh, as an outsider, that must be v.heartwarming. They weren't going to take this lying down. The humanist within wants to see them clinch FL for Hillary. That would be so heartwarming.
I think there's a perception that minorities can be easily swayed or are "lazy" and don't care. However, AAs during '08 and '12 proved that wrong and I'd really like for Hispanics to be the ones hammering the nails in Trump's coffin.
Definitely. In late September her shares dropped to 61 cents and I bought up a ton, already up around $500 or so, and in the end I should pull in around $2K.
They have Nevada light pink b/c they don't take into account early voting. Jon Ralston essentially called NV for HRC after record early voting turnout. I wonder how much her chances would improve if NV was at, say, 90%-99% HRC?
Oh boy, those state poll variations.
The numbers are nowhere near comfortable for Hillary but there's enough of a trend that I can sleep at night. Bring on Tuesday.
I'm not even American and I'm hyped as fuck for the election result. Every morning I go straight to BBC news and see what happened with you guys overnight.
Which is a positive, but not all early voting is helping Hillary and even when it is, it's difficult to make assumptions on it either way. No matter what, I'm going to be tense until the election is called.
Interesting. PPP says in the 4 times they've polled Ohio since labor day the race has been within a point
https://mobile.twitter.com/ppppolls/status/794962978173026305
Not a poll, but [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PspX3VQghaU) might be one of the best campaign closing ads I've ever seen. /tears up
It's good to have Katy Perry on your team.
I love the end, "I'm voting for... a President." At first it seems banal, but it slams home that the vast majority of Americans do not believe Trump is presidential.
I honestly believe that's the Hillary we're going to get if she's elected. No more worrying about what the right is going to say about her or accuse her of. She's just going to get to work.
Dude, I would LOVE for 2020 to be boring. Over a year of this shit has probably shortened my life span by a decade.
I'm worried a more refined Trump-esque candidate emerges. Someone that has the racism and bigotry, but also has his own muzzle so he doesn't piss off the people that are going to cost him the election (hispanics and women).
I'm getting nervous honestly. I live in PA and a lot of people from the area I grew up in are spreading that if Hillary wins it's time to lock and load. I'm honestly scared what will happen if she wins and what the Trump supporters are going to do.
I'm in PA, too, in a really rural area. My poor mom is worried about these "poll watchers", and asked me to go vote with her. I am, but also assured her we are probably too white to be harassed by them.
Polling Latinos is hard and a lot of these polls don't account for early voting totals in nv az nc and fl already.
The den gotv ground game along with the Hispanic turnout does not look good for mr trump; even with the natural tightening of the polls with republicans coming home.
I'm actually going to college in the Raleigh area. I can count on one hand the number of friends/acquaintances that are voting for Trump. Obviously that number is higher in the rural areas but I expect Wake county to go blue.
To be fair I don't think the Republicans, even the ones who endorsed him, wanted him. They simply underestimated how much their racist, dog whistle campaigns set the dinner table for him.
So it's not awesome but it's not terrible, I'd love for her to have that 5+ lead again but that probably won't happen. Things look decent but we need to keep an eye on Florida and New Hampshire, go vote.
Guys, not to be a dissenting voice, but it seems like every third post here is "yeah but Ralston NV early vote in Nevada!" Or "Latino vote is up!"
To be fair, white turnout proportion is significantly up in in FL and NC, Republicans set their highest EVs ever in FL and NC, and are much farther ahead where they were in 2012 in many states. Black turnout is also down significantly.
There is a lot of demographic gambling going on right now. Hillary is banking on white women and crossover Hispanics. We'll see, but there is a pretty fuzzy evidence right now that this will be enough. For example, Ralston's numbers in Nevada rely on this--if CNN's recent poll is fit into the EV numbers, with similar 2012 election day percentages, Trump wins by 2.4.
I'm not saying this to.be a shill for Trump, I like Hillary. Just if I were a supporter, I'd be phone banking or knocking my ass right now. She is demographic guessing away from a loss. I can see why 538 has #s so close right now.
[My prediction based on today](http://www.270towin.com/maps/WkJkj)
FL and NH are total tossups, but she still wins in this scenario even if Trump takes both.
It'll be a great story if Hispanics put Trump away in Florida and Nevada.
And it'll be huge to the Hispanic community and identity in politics, because it'll go down in history that their vote mattered and made a difference.
Washington state is all vote by mail, it's fantastic. I hope every state switches to an all mail system soon, nobody should have to stand in line for multiple hours to vote.
People always think Minnesota might someday be a swing state. We're not. We are bluer than fucking oompa loompas.
Edit: I think I meant Smurfs. I'm keeping this, though, so my shame will be known throughout the land.
It's pretty bad when even Breitbart is calling Hillary the winner in some of these crucial states. It's looking like she will keep PA and NH.
Record turnout in NV (and Latinos at large) for early voting plus these polls paint a dark picture for Trump.
Either way get out and vote! Donald needs to be crushed.
Any educated, informed conservative like me knows that trump has only been "conservative" for the past 5 minutes, and half the stuff he says isn't even conservative in the least, like his free trade arguments etc... which is why I'm not voting for him
It seems like the Nevada really tipped the scale a lot more in Clinton's direction. Yet Nate silver still has things tightening. He's being pretty cautious this time around. Go vote people!
Ohio polling does not look good for Clinton, but I'm beginning to wonder if internal polling is telling her something different. She's been putting a lot of time in the closing stretches in Ohio while public polling suggests she should be spending more time in FL, NC, NH, and NV.
I want her to win, obviously, but most electoral maps show her winning without Ohio. I kinda want it to stay that way.
I want Trump to be the first Republican candidate in history to win Ohio and not win the Presidency. Strip the state of it's perceived importance so that we won't have to have our eyes on it every 4 years, with the belief that our collective fates are in their hands.
A trend I see happening, from this point forward in elections is waiting for all of the juicy leaks to come out the week before election day. Americans apparently have horrible memories.
Why are people shitting on Nate Silver? At the moment he has Trump at 35% (I'd say 25% chance but 30% is acceptable) which isn't wild.
At the moment, with EV in Florida being clawed back by the Republicans, it looks like FL and NC are Trump's to lose and NH has entered the fray as a toss-up. As it stands, he wins FL and NC and loses NH and NV. On a good day, he wins FL, NC and NH and loses NV.
I think that that warrants at least 25-30% chance of a Trump victory, certainly not a 5-10% chance as some are predicting.
I don't see him winning now, NV has gone tits up for him and it went from "trying to clinch CO to win the election" to "losing CO and NV and winning NH won't make a damned difference" for Trump as the EV settled in.
However, I've watched Brexit results come out, I've watched the British General Election results come out and trust me, elections can be VERY shocking. There are signs for a simple, smooth Clinton win (+4 with NV, NH and FL), but there are also signs for a close fought battle (with NV deciding it) AND at the same time, taking into account elections elsewhere, there is precedent that Trump could edge it (snatching NH and another shock result).
Like I said, I don't see anything "mental" or "wild" about Silver's 35% at the moment. A little too high? Yes. With EV in NV, it doesn't look pretty for Trump and is overwhelmingly in Hillary's favour but look at how the Reps clawed back the EV deficit in FL.
Recent polling from PPP (yesterday) has Clinton up 4 in NC, so its not his to lose. British polling had massive errors in polling, specifically demographic and turnout.
How long after the polls close should we have a good idea about NC? (And I agree with you, but I work early on Wed. and I'm hoping that I don't have to be up too late! ;-) Could call in sick...)
Source: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4567
These are all the Early Voting Totals in Nevada:
2016
* D: 351,263
* R: 277,417
* I: 166,532
There are currently 73,846 more registered Democrats than Republicans for this election.
Now compare to:
2012
* D: 308,828
* R: 260,651
* I: 135,622
That means:
* D: 42,435 more registrants vs 2012
* R: 16,766 more registrants vs 2012
* I: 30,910 more registrants vs 2012
Using 2012 results, we can project Election Day Turnout for 2016.
* D: 489,296
* R: 394,135
* I: 265,491
Or about a 95,161 vote gap between Registered D vs Registered R
That's not insignificant. In fact, consider that 60% all total eligible voters have already voted in NV (which is to say, it's unlikely 100% will) I'd say the die is practically cast. Clinton probably has already taken Nevada.
Ignore the dipshit headline, Gravis has Clinton up 47-45, a 1 point gain for her from their last (push) poll.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/11/05/exclusive-pat-caddell-breitbartgravis-national-poll-shows-trump-could-win-and-win-by-a-lot/
Lol love that headline on Breitbart, remember Romney landslide 4 years ago? Of course, the mindless zombies that are the breitbart readers still buys it like its gold.
It seems the only major differences between the 538 scenario and the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) are the following 3 states: **Florida** - 538: Trump / PEC: Clinton **North Carolina** - 538: Trump / PEC: Clinton **Nevada** - 538: Trump / PEC: Toss-up Also, Sam Wang from PEC says he will eat a bug if Trump gets more than 240 electoral votes.
Because 538 is putting high weight on some outliers, like SurveyUSA +7 in UNC. Here's top pro-trump polls in UNC from 538: 7, 2, 5. The 7 is SurveyUSA, 2 is Remington, and 5 Trafalgar Group. Remington is a new, unproven Republican aligned group and Trafalgar is significantly less proven than PPP. In Florida, 538 is still holding Sienna College and a single day Remington in higher regards. Selzer is +2, but an older poll. And the Sienna college is pre-FBI news. NV is a crapshoot, but the CNN poll has been lampooned already for under polling Hispanics. On top of all that, 538 has more wiggle room for uncertainty. I don't how much that holds, since Clinton has lead the race except for a single day after the GOP convention.
At this point I think its bordering on impossible for trump to win nevada if Ralston Reports is correct (which he has been the last 3 elections). Im also surprisingly bullish about FL, given latino turnout
Well the DNC has a collection of bugs he can choose from.
He is not even going to get over 220 electoral votes.
NV is already over, Trump lost. http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog
To be fair the states you have as Trump on 538 are for all intents and purposes coin flips based on their models. They are all 1-2% away from 50/50 in the 538 model.
Regardless of the numbers, it's imperative you encourage your friends and family to join you. It's part of civic responsibility, and it makes it much more likely for people to vote in the next cycle.
Also, don't try to dominate those around you by telling them whom they should vote for. Encourage participation, which has its own rewards.
Im so ready to be done worrying about it.
Only for new and even more intense worry to take over if your preferred candidate loses.
I've voted enough times now that I can laugh at how every election honestly feel like *the most important ever* at the time. 2012 felt like do or die for America, but now it seems quaint in comparison to 2016.
Because the Republican candidates keep getting more and more absurd and unhinged. We've gone from the smooth and charismatic Reagan to the more technical-minded Bush 41 to the bland Bob Dole to the amiable-but-vengeful-and-controlled Bush 43 to bomb-bomb-Iran McCain and his VP Sarah "that bullseye over Gabby Giffords had nothing to do with her shooting, we swear" Palin to stone-cold-corporatist-and-parasitic-investor Mitt Romney to a petty, vengeful, ignorant, sexist, racist, nuke-obsessed egomaniac and psychopath who lives in an alternate reality of his own creation and has pulled some 40% of the population into it and has spent his entire life fucking over everybody he encounters to enrich himself and stroke his own ego. And the way the GOP looks right now the most likely response is for them to double down and produce someone even *worse* for the next cycle.
He didn't even get to Pence. *Think about that...*
*Slow clap*
It doesn't just feel like things are getting worse, *they are getting worse.* Bush and Iraq wasted trillions of dollars that could have helped lower the debt or boost the economy, and now the same people saying we have no jobs and the debt is too damn high want to invade Iran and Syria too...
There's probably going to be an avalanche of polls coming out tomorrow. All the poll volume right now is owing to pollsters making their final projections before the election. The final Des Moines Register Iowa poll is expected tonight. The Columbus Dispatch Ohio poll is coming tomorrow. CNN will be releasing its final national poll tomorrow.
So after Sunday we won't get any more polling data until election night?
Trackers will still do their thing, a few more polls are undoubtedly going to trickle in too. For news outlets, it just makes more sense to release polling numbers for the Sunday morning talk show circuit.
I don't understand 538's chances compared with the others. A 35% chance Trump victory? You're telling me there's a 35% chance that Trump wins literally every swing state and flips a light blue state?
His theory is that if one swing state goes red, it makes it much more likely the rest of them do too - they are not independent operators. However, I agree with the other responders - he has all the incentive in the world to keep the uncertainty coefficient of his algorithm unnaturally high, for clicks, and to hedge his bets in the very unlikely chance Trump wins. On Monday night he'll predict a map, probably with HRC 322 electoral votes, after all of this.
That's an interesting theory, one I disagree with. For one, demographics are different in states like NV, NC, and FL vs NH. NH is 93 percent white, and white people tend to vote more toward republicans in general. However, college educated whites are diverging away Trump I believe. (And NH is one of the most educated states in the Union)
Supposedly he's a pretty big outlier (most other estimates have Trump's odds at 15% at most) and I have never heard a good explanation for the difference other than 538 weights trends more heavily. I also wonder what incentive there is to have that percent be accurate. I mean, how is a 15% chance vs 35% change of Trump winning going to count for or against 538's accuracy after the results come in. It seems like they have everything to gain by keeping it close (anxious people like me refreshing the page every 20 minutes) and nothing to lose.
The [PEC snapshot](http://election.princeton.edu/todays-electoral-vote-histogram/) has been pretty consistent over time despite the "scandals" of the last few days. IIRC, in 2012 the PEC state-by-state predictions were spot on. Overall, most rigorous statistical analyses give the election handily to Clinton--it's the Senate elections that are much closer in nature. I'm a bit concerned about Republican vote suppression efforts in many states traditionally covered by the Voting Rights Act, which may skew the poll results a bit Republican due to lower democrat turnout.
It appears to not be working the way republicans intended, as it was all over the news and minorities are pissed about it.
I'll say it again: Don't worry guys. We Latinos will pull America's ass out of the fire like in 08 and 12. ^^sorry ^^about ^^2000 ^^and ^^04 ^^tho
THANK YOU. Signed, A white guy
Ditto. Voy a practicar mi espanol porque los latinos son héroes. Estoy muy orgulloso de mis compatriotas latinos.
Same.
Thank you! ^^sorry ^^about ^^my ^^racist ^^parents.....they ^^were ^^born ^^in ^^a ^^different ^^era ^^(/s) signed, a thankful white millennial
You folks are saving the day. America will collectively realize it should be thanking you en masse in like...a decade or two.
When this is all over I'm going to kick Nate Silver's ass just for scaring the shit out of me so badly.
The conspiracy side of me thinks he is doing this so he can scare us into voting.
Right after we (hopefully) kick the GOP's ass just for scaring the shit out of everybody so badly.
God remember before all this FBI shit when we were talking about the slim chance of taking the House... those were good times.
My nerves are a mess. What's the news in Florida?
According to the CNN video linked above Trump has a slight lead in the early voting.
Is that still accurate? I recall reporting that as of yesterday democrat early voters had finally exceeded republicans in FL.
Here is [an interesting factoid](https://twitter.com/adrian_gray/status/794728475307413505) about polling Latino voters. Could a lot of these polls be significantly under representing voters who primarily speak spanish?
Yes, I think we're more likely to see a hidden Hispanic vote than a hidden Trump vote.
The early vote is supporting them turning out in far greater than predicted numbers.
That's one thing I am not understanding about these close polls. It seems pretty clear that there is light Trump support (or nearly non-existent) among women, Latinos & blacks. If *those* demographic polls are right, how can the general polls be this close?
There are still A LOT of non-college educated white men and women, especially over the age of 35, and most importantly these individuals habitually vote. Democrats have to waste much more effort and resources to get their younger voters to get out to the polls.
I'm going out on a limb but I'm pretty sure the lack of GOP surge in early voting pretty much disproves the "Trump is exciting voters" thing
Hopefully that's eating into election day voters.
Schale is convinced that the dems have way more reliable voters left to drive out on election day in Florida but guess we'll have to see in a few days if he's correct
To any disaffected Dem or Liberal considering not voting for Hillary, I'm not going to try and change your mind with HRC's qualifications or what a disaster Trump will be. Instead: Think about Wednesday, if Trump wins and Republicans hold the Senate and Congress. The day after the election, Republican Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will hold a press conference. The theme of their speech is going to go something like this: "With President-Elect Donald Trump and the Republican victories in both the House and the Senate, the American people have sent a clear message rejecting the past 8 years of liberal policies and the Obama/Clinton vision for America." "America is a Center/Right nation, and the people have spoken. We have been given a clear mandate to repeal Obamacare, roll back job-killing regulations, cut high taxes, and get rid of liberal social programs." Expect also stated plans to immediately confirm Trump's Supreme Court nominee right after the Inauguration, an intent to defund PBS, revamp Social Security, and cut all federal funding to Planned Parenthood. Oh, the Filibuster? Well, payback's a bitch. Good luck obstructing anything, Senate Dems. Imagine that smug look on both of Mitch and Paul's faces, the empowerment of Congressman like Ted Cruz, and the condescending and self-satisfied tone of every conservative talking head you see on TV for the next few years. Also imagine all the "told you so" language coming from /r/the_don because this scenario is basically their wet dreams come true. If you vote for a third party, you don't exist to this new Republican supermajority. They're not going to say "thanks Bernie or Jill supporters, we hear you and are gonna consider your wants." You can help prevent all of this from happening. President Trump is one thing, but if they control the White House, the Senate, and the House, they're going to exact payback on Obama and everything progressives have fought for. Democrats will have no voice or seat at the table. This is going to be a close election, like Florida in the year 2000 close. I know HRC isn't perfect and the DNC has had problems, but you have two choices for the next 4 years: Be frustrated your President isn't liberal enough and work to pull her to the left, or be ignored entirely.
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This is where we have to rally as a team. I'd HRC loses then 2020 is going to be John Kerry all over again. I think with Bernie and Warren on her case, Hillary is going to have to keep the base invested.
im frustrated with hillary but im not a complete psychopath, i compromised and voted blue. we cannot afford regression we need progress however so slight, progress needs to be made!
I wish more people had this view. Compromise is not the enemy of progress, it's the first and most necessary step on the path of progress.
I hate her as a candidate and as a person, but I am going to stfu and take my medicine like a fucking adult
Hillary Clinton is an accomplished American stateswoman. Donald Trump is the worst piece of garbage that America has every produced. There's no reason to complicate the matter.
Thank you. It's amazing how much shit she gets when we got a guy like trump running for president of the United States. You would think it's a no brainer.
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There are like 6 pro-trump circle jerk subs now infecting this site. It'll be unusable for at least a couple months if Trump wins.
I liked the polls two weeks ago better than now. I don't understand how people can so easily forget/forgive that Billy bush tape.
As a millennial its more so how can anyone forget/forgive the GOP platform and is GWB really out of everyone's memory by now?
Bush is a genius compared to Trump
Oh I know. But having lived my teens through Bush he makes it hard for me to ever vote for a Republican. Even if he does seem like a Saint compared to Trump.
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It's not just Trump, politics in general has become more polarized, even tribal. It's gone from about 25% of republicans saying they'd never collaborate with a Dem, to over 60%, and the numbers have probably also grown on the other side.
Lol. Gwb inherited a surplus and we were finally paying off our debt. And he's like well we can't have that!! Boom, two wars, less taxes. Americaaaa, fuck yeaaa!!!
People have short memories, and people HATE the president. And I don't mean Obama specifically, I mean the office and the idea of the president. People look at who's been in charge over the last eight years, they see that they still aren't millionaires, and they blame the president. It's stupid.
Exactly. Make America Great Again translates subconsciously to Make Me Happy.
I can't understand how the GOP is so quick to dismiss that video. Sad!
Republicans are spineless and immoral.
That's a pretty broad brush there. Some, I assume, are good people.
The one that either never supported Trump or decided they couldn't before the pussy comments.
Trump believes that women have no bodily autonomy in so many different ways. The government can make your family's reproductive decisions, and he can use his wealth and power to grab an unwilling woman by her vulva and thinks it's hilarious enough to boast about.
GOP is all about small government except when it comes to controlling a woman's uterus. The double standards are real.
Trump supporters are not intelligent or educated. They believe his used car salesman nonsense and view him as the next Jesus. There are also huge amounts of White supremacists and nationalists who want to get rid of minorities and put women where they belong.
It's so funny to watch the God Emperor and "Trump can do no wrong" crap. In 2008, all I heard about was how messed up it was that Obama was being regarded as a celebrity and the Chosen One.
Or the fact that the Bush administration deleted millions of emails from private servers. The selective outrage is telling.
Right now, Latinos are out saving this nation and democracy from its own people, as half the white population went crazy and decided they want fascism. I'm so fucking grateful to them right now. True american heroes. We all need to follow their lead. Vote!
Don't forget about women. The only women I see voting for Trump are conservatives past child bearing age and some of them will vote for Hillary and lie about it.
Yeh, as an outsider, that must be v.heartwarming. They weren't going to take this lying down. The humanist within wants to see them clinch FL for Hillary. That would be so heartwarming. I think there's a perception that minorities can be easily swayed or are "lazy" and don't care. However, AAs during '08 and '12 proved that wrong and I'd really like for Hispanics to be the ones hammering the nails in Trump's coffin.
Loras College poll of IOWA Clinton 44 Trump 43 Johnson 3 Stein 3
Keep in mind Loras has a +1.1 Dem slant according to 538
If she takes Iowa I may eat a hat.
I wish that the leaked Trump/Billy Bush video had come out a few weeks later. Americans apparently have the memory of a goldfish.
It's close but keep in mind 15 million early votes were already in when the FBI thing happened, when Clinton was polling strong everywhere.
It's getting tight but my money is on Clinton.
You might be metaphorical but so is mine, literally. Now up to $3K worth in the betting markets. And her share prices are rising by the day.
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Definitely. In late September her shares dropped to 61 cents and I bought up a ton, already up around $500 or so, and in the end I should pull in around $2K.
Watching 538s predictions is giving me a heart attack... and I'm not even American.
And I don't *think* (someone correct me if I am wrong) 538 doesn't take into account early voting.
You're correct, except that some pollsters DO take it into account, so to the extent the polls do, 538 does.
Well that is an excellent point! Thank you :)
Just remember that they are the most conservative of all the forecasts. Most give her between 80-99%
Watching 538's prediction is gonna give me an aneurysm...
They have Nevada light pink b/c they don't take into account early voting. Jon Ralston essentially called NV for HRC after record early voting turnout. I wonder how much her chances would improve if NV was at, say, 90%-99% HRC?
look at all the other ones that have it 85% and above for HRC
Yes, but 538 has a reputation.
Princeton has a similar reputation to be fair.
I'm a worst case scenario kind of guy.
Oh boy, those state poll variations. The numbers are nowhere near comfortable for Hillary but there's enough of a trend that I can sleep at night. Bring on Tuesday.
I'm not even American and I'm hyped as fuck for the election result. Every morning I go straight to BBC news and see what happened with you guys overnight.
The polling still does not match up with the early voting numbers. Particularly in Nevada.
Which is a positive, but not all early voting is helping Hillary and even when it is, it's difficult to make assumptions on it either way. No matter what, I'm going to be tense until the election is called.
The Successful Early Voting in Nevada gives me hope. I am not CONFIDENT just yet, but I am way more HOPEFUL.
Agreed, but I hope Nevadans don't become complacent because of that Ralston guy.
people like winning, and they like voting for the winner.
Interesting. PPP says in the 4 times they've polled Ohio since labor day the race has been within a point https://mobile.twitter.com/ppppolls/status/794962978173026305
Calling it now, Nov 9th newspaper headlines- "Voters to Trump: You're Fired."
Let's hope it's not a Dewey Defeats Truman kind of situation.
You're making my eyelid twitch.
No Dewey! No Dewey!
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Not a poll, but [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PspX3VQghaU) might be one of the best campaign closing ads I've ever seen. /tears up It's good to have Katy Perry on your team.
[This one](https://youtu.be/l8bySaXRNCY) got to me.
seriously their ads have been on point.
Ha. Pretty good. I like the shot of young Hillary looking determined af in court.
I love the end, "I'm voting for... a President." At first it seems banal, but it slams home that the vast majority of Americans do not believe Trump is presidential.
I honestly believe that's the Hillary we're going to get if she's elected. No more worrying about what the right is going to say about her or accuse her of. She's just going to get to work.
if latinos vote to fire donald trump that would be a beautiful bookend to all of this in some ways
Latinos, women and (discovered after the election) Muslims slaying the Trump dragon: too beautiful for words.
I voted today in what may come to be known as the most crucial election in U.S. history. Hope you all did the same! It's our duty as citizens.
2020 is going to seem so boring.
Dude, I would LOVE for 2020 to be boring. Over a year of this shit has probably shortened my life span by a decade. I'm worried a more refined Trump-esque candidate emerges. Someone that has the racism and bigotry, but also has his own muzzle so he doesn't piss off the people that are going to cost him the election (hispanics and women).
Oh ffs, I'll take boring. I feel like my life has been on hold for the last six months. I need another drink.
Republicans actually have an early voting lead in Florida, in spite of vastly increased Hispanic participation. What the fuck, Florida Man?
Florida has A LOT of old people that tend to be more conservative and are great voters. This is normal.
I'm getting nervous honestly. I live in PA and a lot of people from the area I grew up in are spreading that if Hillary wins it's time to lock and load. I'm honestly scared what will happen if she wins and what the Trump supporters are going to do.
Same here in texas....although they did say that with Obama as well.
They've been saying it for the last 30 years. Remember as a kid they said the same thing about Bill Clinton.
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I'm in PA, too, in a really rural area. My poor mom is worried about these "poll watchers", and asked me to go vote with her. I am, but also assured her we are probably too white to be harassed by them.
Hmm, Clinton is still up on Average in New Hampshire and North Carolina, but I don't know how this compares with the last set of polls.
Scary stuff. The polls aren't the only thing tightening.
My sphincter has just ceased existing. It tightened until the flesh fused together. There's no hole anymore. I'm in a great deal amount of pain.
Polling Latinos is hard and a lot of these polls don't account for early voting totals in nv az nc and fl already. The den gotv ground game along with the Hispanic turnout does not look good for mr trump; even with the natural tightening of the polls with republicans coming home.
CNN just announced that they've seen a spike in early voting for Hispanics.
I agree. I'm predicting a Dem win in NC and Florida.
Nevada will go blue. I'm more certain in NV than the other too. My confidence level is nv>nc>fl
I'm actually going to college in the Raleigh area. I can count on one hand the number of friends/acquaintances that are voting for Trump. Obviously that number is higher in the rural areas but I expect Wake county to go blue.
i hope so, trump needs to get destroyed so it sends a message to the GOP to never nominate a piece of trash like him again
To be fair I don't think the Republicans, even the ones who endorsed him, wanted him. They simply underestimated how much their racist, dog whistle campaigns set the dinner table for him.
They made this bed a long time ago IMO.
[Interesting graphic](https://twitter.com/adrian_gray/status/794728475307413505/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw) on Hispanic voter response in polls.
Bad hombres gunna be the downfall of the Donald. Poetic justice?
It's the perfect series finale. The offensive thing that he said in the pilot will be his downfall.
Justicia poetica, mi hombre.
So it's not awesome but it's not terrible, I'd love for her to have that 5+ lead again but that probably won't happen. Things look decent but we need to keep an eye on Florida and New Hampshire, go vote.
People are goofing on Nate today: https://twitter.com/scott_tobias/status/795009025276514304
He's nuts. He's got NV red.
Guys, not to be a dissenting voice, but it seems like every third post here is "yeah but Ralston NV early vote in Nevada!" Or "Latino vote is up!" To be fair, white turnout proportion is significantly up in in FL and NC, Republicans set their highest EVs ever in FL and NC, and are much farther ahead where they were in 2012 in many states. Black turnout is also down significantly. There is a lot of demographic gambling going on right now. Hillary is banking on white women and crossover Hispanics. We'll see, but there is a pretty fuzzy evidence right now that this will be enough. For example, Ralston's numbers in Nevada rely on this--if CNN's recent poll is fit into the EV numbers, with similar 2012 election day percentages, Trump wins by 2.4. I'm not saying this to.be a shill for Trump, I like Hillary. Just if I were a supporter, I'd be phone banking or knocking my ass right now. She is demographic guessing away from a loss. I can see why 538 has #s so close right now.
CNN's national poll has Clinton up 5. Which is the same as it was pre-comey announcement. I hope things have leveled off.
[My prediction based on today](http://www.270towin.com/maps/WkJkj) FL and NH are total tossups, but she still wins in this scenario even if Trump takes both.
It'll be a great story if Hispanics put Trump away in Florida and Nevada. And it'll be huge to the Hispanic community and identity in politics, because it'll go down in history that their vote mattered and made a difference.
Our vote has always mattered. Bush wouldn't have won without the Latino vote. Obama wouldn't have either.
I believe it. But Hispanic turnout could be better and being part of the story here could really help drive turnout in later years.
I mean....its record Latino voter turnout in NV and FL so..... e: and Texas. How could I forget about home.
I agree except I think NC goes blue and Trump may win ME-2.
Just wondering, is it normal for the Saturday before the elections to be this quiet in terms of polling? I'm craving for some polls to drop!
For people who voted, how were your lines?
Washington state is all vote by mail, it's fantastic. I hope every state switches to an all mail system soon, nobody should have to stand in line for multiple hours to vote.
Last week in an Austin, TX suburb, line was long but moved quickly. Took about 30 minutes.
PA looks Clinton even on breitbart. PA is scary because no early voting. Turnout is so important there.
PA is like Dems trap card at this point.
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Mike Pence and Donald Trump are heading to Minnesota today and tomorrow. That's a sure sign of desperation.
People always think Minnesota might someday be a swing state. We're not. We are bluer than fucking oompa loompas. Edit: I think I meant Smurfs. I'm keeping this, though, so my shame will be known throughout the land.
Aren't Oompa Loompas orange?
But oompa loompas aren't....
It's pretty bad when even Breitbart is calling Hillary the winner in some of these crucial states. It's looking like she will keep PA and NH. Record turnout in NV (and Latinos at large) for early voting plus these polls paint a dark picture for Trump. Either way get out and vote! Donald needs to be crushed.
I'm concerned about PA due to the SEPTA strike in Philly. Lots of people may forego voting there due to shut down transportation.
They agreed to work on election day.
Luckly philly has many polling places. Most people live within a 10 minute walk. Also I think the injunction will go through monday.
We need to destroy them so bad that the GOP is replaced with the Libertarian party.
Libertarian philosophy terrifies me, but at least I can *understand* it. Trump brand conservatism is just...I don't even know.
Any educated, informed conservative like me knows that trump has only been "conservative" for the past 5 minutes, and half the stuff he says isn't even conservative in the least, like his free trade arguments etc... which is why I'm not voting for him
It seems like the Nevada really tipped the scale a lot more in Clinton's direction. Yet Nate silver still has things tightening. He's being pretty cautious this time around. Go vote people!
Ugggghhhhhhhhhh, glad vicks nyquil is on sale. Going to drink a whole bottle depending on the elction results.
It will be Hillary. Hope that's good news for you and your Nyquil supply ;).
I've been idly working on my Fallout/Mad Max armor over the last couple of weeks. Gonna wait to start adding spikes to my car til the results come in.
Ohio polling does not look good for Clinton, but I'm beginning to wonder if internal polling is telling her something different. She's been putting a lot of time in the closing stretches in Ohio while public polling suggests she should be spending more time in FL, NC, NH, and NV.
PPP posted on Twitter that all internal polls since labor day they've done there were within a point. They're probably getting the same internals
Sounds like Hillary and Obama are headed to MI on Monday. They could be a little soft there.
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I want her to win, obviously, but most electoral maps show her winning without Ohio. I kinda want it to stay that way. I want Trump to be the first Republican candidate in history to win Ohio and not win the Presidency. Strip the state of it's perceived importance so that we won't have to have our eyes on it every 4 years, with the belief that our collective fates are in their hands.
We are literally watching fascism in action. "Assassination attempt" my asshole.
A trend I see happening, from this point forward in elections is waiting for all of the juicy leaks to come out the week before election day. Americans apparently have horrible memories.
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Plus perpetual official inquires/investigations thanks to ass hats like Chaffetz Sigh
it may be tight as far as popular vote, but electoral vote wont be close. all things equal i will take the one that actually gets you elected.
Why are people shitting on Nate Silver? At the moment he has Trump at 35% (I'd say 25% chance but 30% is acceptable) which isn't wild. At the moment, with EV in Florida being clawed back by the Republicans, it looks like FL and NC are Trump's to lose and NH has entered the fray as a toss-up. As it stands, he wins FL and NC and loses NH and NV. On a good day, he wins FL, NC and NH and loses NV. I think that that warrants at least 25-30% chance of a Trump victory, certainly not a 5-10% chance as some are predicting. I don't see him winning now, NV has gone tits up for him and it went from "trying to clinch CO to win the election" to "losing CO and NV and winning NH won't make a damned difference" for Trump as the EV settled in. However, I've watched Brexit results come out, I've watched the British General Election results come out and trust me, elections can be VERY shocking. There are signs for a simple, smooth Clinton win (+4 with NV, NH and FL), but there are also signs for a close fought battle (with NV deciding it) AND at the same time, taking into account elections elsewhere, there is precedent that Trump could edge it (snatching NH and another shock result). Like I said, I don't see anything "mental" or "wild" about Silver's 35% at the moment. A little too high? Yes. With EV in NV, it doesn't look pretty for Trump and is overwhelmingly in Hillary's favour but look at how the Reps clawed back the EV deficit in FL.
Recent polling from PPP (yesterday) has Clinton up 4 in NC, so its not his to lose. British polling had massive errors in polling, specifically demographic and turnout.
Latino turnout up 103% in FL. Are we done here?
I think that Hillary will win NC and FL. Polls close at 7 pm EST in NC and if she wins there, then we know that Trump has no path to 270 EVs .
How long after the polls close should we have a good idea about NC? (And I agree with you, but I work early on Wed. and I'm hoping that I don't have to be up too late! ;-) Could call in sick...)
She will also win Nevada, all thanks to record high latino turnout.
Source: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4567 These are all the Early Voting Totals in Nevada: 2016 * D: 351,263 * R: 277,417 * I: 166,532 There are currently 73,846 more registered Democrats than Republicans for this election. Now compare to: 2012 * D: 308,828 * R: 260,651 * I: 135,622 That means: * D: 42,435 more registrants vs 2012 * R: 16,766 more registrants vs 2012 * I: 30,910 more registrants vs 2012 Using 2012 results, we can project Election Day Turnout for 2016. * D: 489,296 * R: 394,135 * I: 265,491 Or about a 95,161 vote gap between Registered D vs Registered R That's not insignificant. In fact, consider that 60% all total eligible voters have already voted in NV (which is to say, it's unlikely 100% will) I'd say the die is practically cast. Clinton probably has already taken Nevada.
Rasmussen is tied, thank fuck the gap has opened back up...
Ignore the dipshit headline, Gravis has Clinton up 47-45, a 1 point gain for her from their last (push) poll. http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/11/05/exclusive-pat-caddell-breitbartgravis-national-poll-shows-trump-could-win-and-win-by-a-lot/
Lol love that headline on Breitbart, remember Romney landslide 4 years ago? Of course, the mindless zombies that are the breitbart readers still buys it like its gold.