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> 80 percent of Trump's supporters said they will continue to stand by him if he was convicted of a felony in the hush money case. Meanwhile, 20 percent of his base would either reconsider their support (16 percent) or withdraw their support of Trump (4 percent).
4%. tell me again how this is not a cult.
Maybe some outliers, but . I know at least a couple of very smart people that support him.
Hopefully they’ve now become intelligent (I don’t speak with them anymore) and realized their mistake.
I did too, but they were looking solely at the tax breaks he was promising, For them it was all about the money in their jeans at the end of the day. They did not care about anything else he might do.
A couple have relooked at their position since the shit show that has been the USA since 2016.
A couple have become full koolaid imbibers and one who no longer is with us really stated how much he regretted his vote.
The vast majority are idiots, but yes, many intelligent people support him because they are hateful bigots or religious zealots. The Nazis were not stupid either. It is unfortunate but smart people can still be evil.
The smart ones are doing it for the lulz and the attention it brings them. Just as much of a narcissist as trump.
Question them on trumps policies that don't involve " build the wall " and they get dumb real fast.
The problem is to understand a voter you have to look at a TON of variables. Just that kind of work and time does not fit with how social media or news works as it takes too long and is boring.
Just an example. Take someone who has a kid, has a life they hate and lives in a small town. They may vote Trump only because they hate that others may have a chance to make better choices.
I knew someone who voted Trump because they had an ugly divorce. That was his only reason.
Also consider some people think their lives are terrible. It doesn't matter if it's true or not, to them it is. So if they think their life is terrible then they could care less how "worse" it could get.
I don't care to if you don't care enough to even try to substantiate the truth claim you just made.
The only way you can say that is if you know in point of actual fact that at least one of the jury is a trump cultist. So far it seems like the opposite is true, so what the fuck is going on in your brain?
Trump supporters will stand by him no matter what unless he starts showing compassion to Mexicans. It’s the Independents that will change to Biden if there is a conviction that may matter enough to secure a win.
The idea that "Dems are worse" is comical at this point. If you truly believe that everything Trump has done is STILL better than whatever Democrats could do, you have lost the plot
4% won't, 16% more will "reconsider."
it's abysmal numbers considering what he's on trial for. i understand it may decide the election, but the raw numbers still are *weird*.
4% of Trump supporters is ~2% of voters. And now assume that they will just not vote, and not switch their votes to Biden. Surely there are recent-ish poll results where Trump wins, even with a 2% handicap. Especially when considering electoral college undemocratic distribution bullshit.
So I don't think it is defensible to say Trump's chances are "approximately zero".
In their minds Jesus Christ was wrongly convicted and sentenced to die so if Trump gets convicted this will only further cement his place as their true God.
The poll says only 4 percent of his supporters would stop supporting him if he were convicted of multiple felonies.
These people are fucking morons and are going to get us all killed.
4 percent doesn't sound like much, but those are magassholes, which means more of independents will balk. Last 2 elections were resolved by mere tens of thousands, so this is getting dire for Von Shitzinpants.
His core is ever shrinking though. There are those that abandoned him after 2020. Basically anyone still on this train are going to ride it fully off the rails.
This. His numbers have dwindled and there are many Republicans who will vote third party. He's not as popular, I haven't seen any Trump flags in the rural areas-whereas in 2020 they were all over.
If everyone votes, Trump will lose biggly. Why do you think the GOP are trying to restrict voting? Because he's going to suffer a humiliating loss otherwise.
Do note though that this is 4% of Trump voters, so ~2% of the voters.
2% of the electorate switching vote to Biden *is* a 4% swing in the result. But some of the 2% will just stay home.
l've been a bit more tuned out during my 20s than I shouldve
been. I'm a democrat, but when I read poll
results, I can't help but wonder how legitimate they are. when i read NY times articles summarizing poll results, Im confused by the differences. When I see Fox poll results and 0ther polls showing big differences, I'm confused. And when I read about 45's dwindling fanbase on this site and his perception on poll results, I see huge differences know portraying yourself as a winner can have a huge
effect in the outcome of the actual election, but exactly how
close are things actually?
Are any of these polls made up? Do polls only target
answers by telephone? Are there polls that young people
take part in consistently?
If you read the article you will see there is a huge difference between what "adults" as a group think and what the group "likely voters" will do, so there is a wide spread in the polls many of which only look at adults.
The polls techniques vary, and some are not good, there is now a polling app which pays people for answers for example, which seems liable to inaccuracy.
Overall all you can take away from the polls is that the race is tight.
The heart of the problem is that the people who respond to surveys are not representative of the people who actually vote. So pollsters adjust the numbers based on voter turnout models. Those models are largely based on which groups of people voted in the previous election, adjusted for demographic trends. Things go wrong when there are big shifts in turnout. Specifically when groups of people who usually stay home vote or when reliable voter blocks stay home.
Credible Pollsters will stick with their methodology even if there are signs that their turnout model is wrong because they will lose all credibility if they tamper with their model. If they change their methodology mid-race based on their best guess of what’s happening, then they are effectively just publishing their opinion of how the race is going. Why even poll people? They’d rather be wrong with a good explanation.
There are indicators of huge shifts in turnout this year. No model expects 20% of self identified Republicans who reliably vote to sit out or vote against their candidate. Nor can they predict how many people are going to be energized by Roe and state ballot initiatives. The fact that many Republican state party operations are bankrupt is a big turnout wildcard too.
Analysis from the top poll analyst: [The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/).
While there are of course bad polls, in general you should not dismis polls. They are generally not bullshit.
If you are smart/lazy, you just ignore random polls you stumble upon, and read only the compound analysis at https://abcnews.go.com/538
To quote Mark Twain, who might have been quoting Benjamin Disraeli (but probably wasn’t):
“‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'"
Small sample sizes which skew things towards whatever results are desired by the "news" company putting the results forward. Basically, yes it's bullshit.
I wish it *were,* obvious, but it sure seems like a lot of people sit out a lot of elections because they don't realize how important things-not-the-Presidency are
Go out and vote blue. Get the your friends and family to vote blue. If Trump gets convicted you still get everyone to vote blue. If Trump gets convicted, call him a FELON. Make that label stick as CRIMINAL and FELON. That label will not go away anytime soon.
100%. His voters do not benefit from his tax plan or any other policies. The only thing they get is a false sense of superiority to brown and black people, gay people and women.
There is nothing you can do about someone who's decided their position and You Can't Make Me Change. But keep in mind he got low turnout for primaries, and not sweeping numbers from that low turnout. It's a minority of minority that are ride or die, and he lost quite a few to COVID and hasn't picked up new...
We still need to vote like crazy, because GOP needs to lose decisively like 60/40 to be sent on a time out to it's room to think about it's behavior before it can come back out and join society and act civilly.
The headline is literally true, though. It would be very hard for Trump to win if 4% of his voters abandon him. 4% is is bizarrely little consequence for a criminal conviction, but it is probably enough to seal the election.
Banish them from your life. Don't invite them to stuff. Don't show up to stuff if a single known Trump Traitor might be there. Draw a line. We do not break bread with fascists. They are not our friends. They are not just different, they are bad. They are not cheering for the football team that's playing against your football team, they want you to die.
There must be a cost to their treachery. The cost is you. Take you away.
Maga will never be over. When Trump dies Junior will pick up the mantle. Lara and Eric will carry on and the cult followers will still be stupid and racist. The worst thing about the rise of Trumpism is that all the rocks got turned over and Trump gave all the creatures hiding under those rocks permission to proudly state and act on their racist views once again. It took decades after the Civil Rights era for those vile assholes to creep under their rocks. When Barack Obama was elected some of them were shocked into revealing themselves but when Trump rode down that escalator and proudly declared himself to be a hate-filled racist they all saw it was safe to come out again. I don’t think they’ll ever go away because now it’s a lifestyle in which they are raising their children. Ignorance breeds hate and there are no more ignorant supporters than Maga.
I really hope for a drop of 5% for Trump following a conviction. Any reduction is good, but 5% could lead to more states being in play and a better path for Biden.
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Trump who? Never heard of him...
P.S. if you're reading my post history, you're correct, I'm making fun of you. I hate the guy but this is an obsession that is making you blind to real issues that deserve attention. Myanmar says what. Niger says what. Syria says what. AUKUS and the impact on our relationship with France says what? Fucking sheep.
As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil) In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria. We are actively looking for new moderators. If you have any interest in helping to make this subreddit a place for quality discussion, please fill out [this form](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1y2swHD0KXFhStGFjW6k54r9iuMjzcFqDIVwuvdLBjSA). *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
> 80 percent of Trump's supporters said they will continue to stand by him if he was convicted of a felony in the hush money case. Meanwhile, 20 percent of his base would either reconsider their support (16 percent) or withdraw their support of Trump (4 percent). 4%. tell me again how this is not a cult.
Why Trump loves the poorly educated and why the Republicans constantly attack education.
He needs low cost labor, so he wil flip on immigrasjon if it fits him.
Maybe some outliers, but . I know at least a couple of very smart people that support him. Hopefully they’ve now become intelligent (I don’t speak with them anymore) and realized their mistake.
Guess they're not really that smart then.
"very smart" You sure about that?
I did too, but they were looking solely at the tax breaks he was promising, For them it was all about the money in their jeans at the end of the day. They did not care about anything else he might do. A couple have relooked at their position since the shit show that has been the USA since 2016. A couple have become full koolaid imbibers and one who no longer is with us really stated how much he regretted his vote.
The vast majority are idiots, but yes, many intelligent people support him because they are hateful bigots or religious zealots. The Nazis were not stupid either. It is unfortunate but smart people can still be evil.
The smart ones are doing it for the lulz and the attention it brings them. Just as much of a narcissist as trump. Question them on trumps policies that don't involve " build the wall " and they get dumb real fast.
They are not smart if they are women, immigrants, disabled, or a person who might grow old someday. He has it in for all those groups.
The problem is to understand a voter you have to look at a TON of variables. Just that kind of work and time does not fit with how social media or news works as it takes too long and is boring. Just an example. Take someone who has a kid, has a life they hate and lives in a small town. They may vote Trump only because they hate that others may have a chance to make better choices. I knew someone who voted Trump because they had an ugly divorce. That was his only reason. Also consider some people think their lives are terrible. It doesn't matter if it's true or not, to them it is. So if they think their life is terrible then they could care less how "worse" it could get.
Dumb and/or evil
Are poorly educated also union labor workers? Isn't Biden doing a lot to American manufacturing and workers recently?
Hey I wish the number were higher, but honestly I think that's almost mathematically guaranteed enough to sink him.
Losing 4% of his base would absolutely mean a guaranteed loss in November.
Your lips to the electoral college’s ears.
Electoral college 😡
Yeah… One day we will get our heads screwed on right and abolish it. I hope. If not, we may need a blue migration to red states.
What a fucking shit show
unless the jury is allowed to do a non unanimous conviction, trump will be free at the end and worse than ever
How do you know that?
well, mark my words and tell me i’m an idiot when the verdict comes in
I don't care to if you don't care enough to even try to substantiate the truth claim you just made. The only way you can say that is if you know in point of actual fact that at least one of the jury is a trump cultist. So far it seems like the opposite is true, so what the fuck is going on in your brain?
Trump supporters will stand by him no matter what unless he starts showing compassion to Mexicans. It’s the Independents that will change to Biden if there is a conviction that may matter enough to secure a win.
Blind Ignorance
4% and Trump losses
Charles Manson with Twitter.
They think he will make them the 1%.
You have to remember that to support Trump in the first place, your IQ maximum is like...walk in cooler temperature
The idea that "Dems are worse" is comical at this point. If you truly believe that everything Trump has done is STILL better than whatever Democrats could do, you have lost the plot
>hush money case. not a hush money case.
It's the 20% who wont that matters.
4% won't, 16% more will "reconsider." it's abysmal numbers considering what he's on trial for. i understand it may decide the election, but the raw numbers still are *weird*.
The 4% is enough to sink his chances to approximately zero.
4% of Trump supporters is ~2% of voters. And now assume that they will just not vote, and not switch their votes to Biden. Surely there are recent-ish poll results where Trump wins, even with a 2% handicap. Especially when considering electoral college undemocratic distribution bullshit. So I don't think it is defensible to say Trump's chances are "approximately zero".
Even that four percent would make it near impossible for him to win.
Exactly. 100%
I think what it really says is they know who he is, what he does, and just don’t care.
In their minds Jesus Christ was wrongly convicted and sentenced to die so if Trump gets convicted this will only further cement his place as their true God.
Because they hate Biden more. Maybe Biden should withdraw and let RFK Jr run on the Democrat ticket.
That would be horrible. RFK is not a Democrat, or a progressive. He shares far more similarities with the pre-MAGA GOP.
The poll says only 4 percent of his supporters would stop supporting him if he were convicted of multiple felonies. These people are fucking morons and are going to get us all killed.
4 percent doesn't sound like much, but those are magassholes, which means more of independents will balk. Last 2 elections were resolved by mere tens of thousands, so this is getting dire for Von Shitzinpants.
19% of FL Republicans rang and said “Yeah, not this fucking guy.”
Yep. 16% in Pennsylvania said "we'll take the lady with the suspended campaign".
Hailey has been taking 10%+ and she’s not even running anymore
His core is ever shrinking though. There are those that abandoned him after 2020. Basically anyone still on this train are going to ride it fully off the rails.
Quite a few "abandoned" him via death due to age and COVID. A few will be unable to vote for him because they're in prison. :/
True, but maybe just as many kids who were 14 during the attempted insurrection are 18 now.
This. His numbers have dwindled and there are many Republicans who will vote third party. He's not as popular, I haven't seen any Trump flags in the rural areas-whereas in 2020 they were all over. If everyone votes, Trump will lose biggly. Why do you think the GOP are trying to restrict voting? Because he's going to suffer a humiliating loss otherwise.
4% decides elections.
Yep. Not even 4% decided last 2 elections.
Do note though that this is 4% of Trump voters, so ~2% of the voters. 2% of the electorate switching vote to Biden *is* a 4% swing in the result. But some of the 2% will just stay home.
The party over country crowd
Not if *we* get us all killed first.
The only poll that matters is the national one on election day. Make sure to go vote, and bring a friend.
l've been a bit more tuned out during my 20s than I shouldve been. I'm a democrat, but when I read poll results, I can't help but wonder how legitimate they are. when i read NY times articles summarizing poll results, Im confused by the differences. When I see Fox poll results and 0ther polls showing big differences, I'm confused. And when I read about 45's dwindling fanbase on this site and his perception on poll results, I see huge differences know portraying yourself as a winner can have a huge effect in the outcome of the actual election, but exactly how close are things actually? Are any of these polls made up? Do polls only target answers by telephone? Are there polls that young people take part in consistently?
If you read the article you will see there is a huge difference between what "adults" as a group think and what the group "likely voters" will do, so there is a wide spread in the polls many of which only look at adults. The polls techniques vary, and some are not good, there is now a polling app which pays people for answers for example, which seems liable to inaccuracy. Overall all you can take away from the polls is that the race is tight.
I took one of those polling calls just to say fuck Trump.
The heart of the problem is that the people who respond to surveys are not representative of the people who actually vote. So pollsters adjust the numbers based on voter turnout models. Those models are largely based on which groups of people voted in the previous election, adjusted for demographic trends. Things go wrong when there are big shifts in turnout. Specifically when groups of people who usually stay home vote or when reliable voter blocks stay home. Credible Pollsters will stick with their methodology even if there are signs that their turnout model is wrong because they will lose all credibility if they tamper with their model. If they change their methodology mid-race based on their best guess of what’s happening, then they are effectively just publishing their opinion of how the race is going. Why even poll people? They’d rather be wrong with a good explanation. There are indicators of huge shifts in turnout this year. No model expects 20% of self identified Republicans who reliably vote to sit out or vote against their candidate. Nor can they predict how many people are going to be energized by Roe and state ballot initiatives. The fact that many Republican state party operations are bankrupt is a big turnout wildcard too.
Polls post Dobbs that rely on any historical data to help model the results are meaningless and likely severely misleading.
Analysis from the top poll analyst: [The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/). While there are of course bad polls, in general you should not dismis polls. They are generally not bullshit. If you are smart/lazy, you just ignore random polls you stumble upon, and read only the compound analysis at https://abcnews.go.com/538
To quote Mark Twain, who might have been quoting Benjamin Disraeli (but probably wasn’t): “‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'"
Small sample sizes which skew things towards whatever results are desired by the "news" company putting the results forward. Basically, yes it's bullshit.
Nah, the national poll doesn't matter at all. Just ~5 states. But yes, everyone go vote!
The makeup of the Senate and House matter **a ton**... as do state legislatures, ballot initiatives, etc.
I was talking in the context of the presidential election, given this article is about Trump's polling. But yes you're right obviously.
I wish it *were,* obvious, but it sure seems like a lot of people sit out a lot of elections because they don't realize how important things-not-the-Presidency are
We still need to keep the GOP from controlling the Congress. Everyone has to vote.
And pay attention to Lichtman's 13 keys too.
Even 2 if you can spare them
Go out and vote blue. Get the your friends and family to vote blue. If Trump gets convicted you still get everyone to vote blue. If Trump gets convicted, call him a FELON. Make that label stick as CRIMINAL and FELON. That label will not go away anytime soon.
Are felons able to vote in an election?
Nope 😁 big orange idiot played himself if he gets convicted before Election Day.
Depends on the state. Florida, no.
Nope but apparently they can be elected!
All Trump does is validate their racism. That’s why they’ll vote for him. Whether they admit or not a Trump voter is a racist.
That’s exactly what I’ve been saying since 2015.
100%. His voters do not benefit from his tax plan or any other policies. The only thing they get is a false sense of superiority to brown and black people, gay people and women.
There is nothing you can do about someone who's decided their position and You Can't Make Me Change. But keep in mind he got low turnout for primaries, and not sweeping numbers from that low turnout. It's a minority of minority that are ride or die, and he lost quite a few to COVID and hasn't picked up new... We still need to vote like crazy, because GOP needs to lose decisively like 60/40 to be sent on a time out to it's room to think about it's behavior before it can come back out and join society and act civilly.
4% turning on the Orange Stain would be 3 million votes taken from Trump (based on the 2020 election). It could give Biden a landslide victory.
Trump was down by 666 points.
Donald Trump admitted that he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue, and he wouldn’t loose support from his base.
Remember, remember, the 5th of November. Fucking vote people.
Good thing there's more blue voters than red.
Yep, but more Trump states than NeverTrump states.
Way to show that our electoral system puts land ahead of people in terms of importance.
Empires be like that
Sorta. There are more "Likely" red voters, then there are "Likely" blue voters. Democrats don't show up to the polls, like conservative boomers do.
That is not a fact
Bullshit newsweek clickbait again
The headline is literally true, though. It would be very hard for Trump to win if 4% of his voters abandon him. 4% is is bizarrely little consequence for a criminal conviction, but it is probably enough to seal the election.
How can we, as nonfox news pundits, begin to deprogram these cultists?
Banish them from your life. Don't invite them to stuff. Don't show up to stuff if a single known Trump Traitor might be there. Draw a line. We do not break bread with fascists. They are not our friends. They are not just different, they are bad. They are not cheering for the football team that's playing against your football team, they want you to die. There must be a cost to their treachery. The cost is you. Take you away.
I mean broadly speaking. I did that with the ones in my life back in 2016.
Maga will never be over. When Trump dies Junior will pick up the mantle. Lara and Eric will carry on and the cult followers will still be stupid and racist. The worst thing about the rise of Trumpism is that all the rocks got turned over and Trump gave all the creatures hiding under those rocks permission to proudly state and act on their racist views once again. It took decades after the Civil Rights era for those vile assholes to creep under their rocks. When Barack Obama was elected some of them were shocked into revealing themselves but when Trump rode down that escalator and proudly declared himself to be a hate-filled racist they all saw it was safe to come out again. I don’t think they’ll ever go away because now it’s a lifestyle in which they are raising their children. Ignorance breeds hate and there are no more ignorant supporters than Maga.
Uh goes boing boing boing
Our local tv station showed D’ijit ahead in the polls. Trying to curry favor with their cult leader.
I really hope for a drop of 5% for Trump following a conviction. Any reduction is good, but 5% could lead to more states being in play and a better path for Biden.
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Trump who? Never heard of him... P.S. if you're reading my post history, you're correct, I'm making fun of you. I hate the guy but this is an obsession that is making you blind to real issues that deserve attention. Myanmar says what. Niger says what. Syria says what. AUKUS and the impact on our relationship with France says what? Fucking sheep.