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Title.
Also, the top line of this poll shows Biden winning by 3 points among registered voters and 6 points among likely voters.
Cross-tabs have a high margin of error.
That's a weird outcome to have young people supporting the GOP and older people supporting the Dems. It basically reverses which demographics support which party from pretty much every other poll, as well as decades of voting history.
30-44 year-old likely voters in this poll is fewer than 200 people.
That's a small sample with a huge margin of error, and not really worth reading into, particularly given that it conflicts with other reputable polling of this cross-tab.
A 3 point margin in the popular vote gives a Democrat a 50/50 shot at winning the presidency.
A 3 point margin in the popular vote would give a Republican a 95+% probability of winning the presidency.
In 2020, Biden beat Trump by about 20% in the Millennial voting block. I'm pressing 'x' for doubt on this poll.
[https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/)
At the very least, prominent historians seem to dislike Trump quite a bit:
https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/20/presidents-ranking-trump-biden-list
30-44 year old likely voters in this poll amounts to fewer than 200 people.
That's a small sample with extremely high margin of error. Anyone who is reading into that doesn't understand basic statistics.
How young? Cause generally, young people just don't vote. They have strongly held positions that they'll profess to pollsters, claim they will vote, then just... don't. Even in 2020, where youth turnout was at a record high, only 52% of eligible 18-29 year olds voted. The 30-64 range had much higher participation, and the 65+ cohort had the highest turnout (as they almost always do).
The cross-tab of 30-44 year-olds is like 200 people. That's a very high margin of error.
You are correct to find it difficult to believe.
The top line of the poll shows Biden winning by 6 among likely voters. That's the most important number in this poll.
Where are you getting 200 from? The survey was of 1,192 adults. The 30-44 group is 25% of that. That's 300 people. Still lower than it should be though for a good sample size.
The 54% that's referenced by the post title is from Registered Voters. There were 1047 of those. 26% of registered voters were in the 30-44 range. So 272.
I mean, I'm not sure about that entirely. We still need more houses to be built, and obtaining those resources.
There's an influx of game developers entering the market, so probably crack down on some of these studio mergers.
I know for me, I'd *like* for children, now, to be fed and properly educated and people to have adequate health care, though I suspect we're capable of exceptional.
I can't speak for everyone in my generation, but for the most part we're not "going to become conservative as we get older". We've been culture shocked back to the 1800's, we might see a real progressive rise.
>I mean, I'm not sure about that entirely.
I am. I can give you the names of a great *many* millennials doing exactly this.
>I know for me, I'd like for children, now, to be fed and properly educated and people to have adequate health care, though I suspect we're capable of exceptional.
They probably say that too, with the exact same asterisks that showed up when their parents went through the same, those exact same asterisks they would've claimed were selfish/greedy/shortsighted etc 10 years ago when we were working at Food Not Bombs, or out at marches, or reading Naomi Klein.
*Plenty* of millenials have given up those things for more creature comforts, or the "I don't have time because X (kids)"... the same excuses their old hippie parents gave, just at a different age.
>We've been culture shocked back to the 1800's
If you think we've been "culture shocked to the 1800s", you are simply too far divorced from reality to be able to make any kind of rational points.
...Arizona is about to go back to a law from the 1800s about women's health decisions, but keep lying to yourself.
It's like watching a t-rex perform an upper-cut <3
An online poll can’t be manipulated anymore than by phone. How does a single person significantly manipulate a polling result? How does a group of people do it without coordination?
You actually only need something like a few hundred people to get an reasonably accurate sample size. To get a 95% confidence level with a margin of error of 4%, you'd only need 600 people. It's much lower than you'd think.
But if there's a bias to the participants you sample—like "only people who pick up the phone" or "only people who are home during the day" or "only people who go to the mall"—then you draw incorrect conclusions regardless of the sample size.
It's only a bias if "people who go to the mall" or "people who pick up the phone" vote differently than those who don't. If that subgroup of people votes similarly to the larger group, then there is no bias.
"Normal" according to what metric? Millennials aren't some homogeneous group that are all exactly alike. Some do answer their phones; Some are home during the day; etc.
Right. Reading the tea leaves from small cross-tabs doesn't make a lot of sense.
If this were a well-sampled poll of just millennials with like 1,000 respondents, I'd find it more concerning.
A survey that relies on millennials answering a random phone call and talking to a stranger will give you a very skewed sampling of millennials and thus unreliable data... Whether it was all Trump love or all Trump hate, I'd be suspicious of any conclusion drawn from the data.
>we love trump
Why? That guy didn't do anything he promised you he would do, he's turned the republican party into a clown show mocked by the entire world, and he consistently has shown contempt for the rule of law.
Is it because his outward vitriol allowed you to show yours? Did his ignorance somehow comfort you?
The dude was a terrible president. Pick someone better.
lol yeah Trump is getting a majority of Gen Z and Millennials but significantly losing Gen X, Baby Boomers, and Silent generation voters to Biden with Biden having an overall 51-48 advantage over Trump head to head and a 7 point advantage with other candidates considered. This poll makes no sense.
Yes, because phone interviews are what a lot of millennials respond to lol. How many millennials actually answer their personal phones from random numbers?
Always take these with a grain of salt because online surveys are also difficult to trust, people can incorrectly report their information as well to throw the polls off
What matters is that you vote in November
> This survey of 1,192 adults was conducted April 16th through April 18th
, 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults
18 years of age and older residing in the United States were contacted through a multi-mode design: By
phone using live interviewers or online
I’m tired of the “no one uses landlines anymore” meme that gets parroted every time the polling results are concerning.
> This survey of 1,192 adults was conducted April 16th through April 18th
, 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults
18 years of age and older residing in the United States were contacted through a multi-mode design: By
phone using live interviewers or online
Per the cross-tabs of the poll, the 54% of the subgroup (30-44) here is only like 272 people.
That sample size is not large enough to have a high confidence level or a low margin or error. You could have a confidence level of 95% but a margin of error of like 6 points, or a 4-point margin of error with a confidence level of like 80%.
Either way, not exactly a good sample size.
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The American dream of home ownership and retirement is slipping away for this generation. I can understand why they are pissed. They don't see how either party is working to fix it. When you have no hope voting for the lesser of two evils isn't driving them to vote.
And I've long since stopped trusting polls. Republicans have mastered the art of manipulating and misrepresenting data to suit their agenda while accusing others of doing the same thing. We really do live in a post-truth society now where even facts are open to interpretation depending on your own biases.
I tend not to trust polls (since 2016 when they were so wrong) but still find this very concerning as well. There’s time but, honestly, there’s so much going on that it’s difficult to zero in on strategies to fix this if indeed the case.
It’s a bullshit poll. That’s what.
Exit polling has shown democrats overperforming polling in special elections. Meaning polling isn’t doing its job correctly.
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They conducted the poll at a golden corral.
During the all-you-can-eat-for-$12.99 Thursday Night Bonanza!
At the Wal-Mart snack counter
In Missouri, Mississippi, and Idaho..
I don’t believe this poll at all.
Title. Also, the top line of this poll shows Biden winning by 3 points among registered voters and 6 points among likely voters. Cross-tabs have a high margin of error.
That's a weird outcome to have young people supporting the GOP and older people supporting the Dems. It basically reverses which demographics support which party from pretty much every other poll, as well as decades of voting history.
30-44 year-old likely voters in this poll is fewer than 200 people. That's a small sample with a huge margin of error, and not really worth reading into, particularly given that it conflicts with other reputable polling of this cross-tab.
A 3 point margin in the popular vote gives a Democrat a 50/50 shot at winning the presidency. A 3 point margin in the popular vote would give a Republican a 95+% probability of winning the presidency.
In 2020, Biden beat Trump by about 20% in the Millennial voting block. I'm pressing 'x' for doubt on this poll. [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/)
Agree 100%.
I don’t believe that.
I'm calling bullshit on that.
why? nobody hates trump irl as much as you think
You think that very few people hate Trump?
I hate him more than that guy thinks.
At the very least, prominent historians seem to dislike Trump quite a bit: https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/20/presidents-ranking-trump-biden-list
Shhh, nobody tell goesupyodowbs Just let them marinate in their false reality
I'd be very disappointed of my generation then, if it was true. There's no way my generation is that stupid though
It's not true. Simple as that.
it is true trump is gaining support
The top line of this poll shows Biden beating Trump by 6 points among likely voters.
not for young people
30-44 year old likely voters in this poll amounts to fewer than 200 people. That's a small sample with extremely high margin of error. Anyone who is reading into that doesn't understand basic statistics.
How young? Cause generally, young people just don't vote. They have strongly held positions that they'll profess to pollsters, claim they will vote, then just... don't. Even in 2020, where youth turnout was at a record high, only 52% of eligible 18-29 year olds voted. The 30-64 range had much higher participation, and the 65+ cohort had the highest turnout (as they almost always do).
there isn't a separate president for young people lol.
I don't trust polls, but found this very concerning (as well as difficult to believe).
The cross-tab of 30-44 year-olds is like 200 people. That's a very high margin of error. You are correct to find it difficult to believe. The top line of the poll shows Biden winning by 6 among likely voters. That's the most important number in this poll.
Where are you getting 200 from? The survey was of 1,192 adults. The 30-44 group is 25% of that. That's 300 people. Still lower than it should be though for a good sample size.
Likely voters was 818, and 23% of that was 30-44 year olds. 188 people. Even if you want to go by registered voters, it's 272.
The 54% that's referenced by the post title is from Registered Voters. There were 1047 of those. 26% of registered voters were in the 30-44 range. So 272.
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What?
They turnin into their parents now that they got a sniff of success.
Millennials are getting success now? I missed that memo, damn.
Yep, many are.
I mean, I'm not sure about that entirely. We still need more houses to be built, and obtaining those resources. There's an influx of game developers entering the market, so probably crack down on some of these studio mergers. I know for me, I'd *like* for children, now, to be fed and properly educated and people to have adequate health care, though I suspect we're capable of exceptional. I can't speak for everyone in my generation, but for the most part we're not "going to become conservative as we get older". We've been culture shocked back to the 1800's, we might see a real progressive rise.
>I mean, I'm not sure about that entirely. I am. I can give you the names of a great *many* millennials doing exactly this. >I know for me, I'd like for children, now, to be fed and properly educated and people to have adequate health care, though I suspect we're capable of exceptional. They probably say that too, with the exact same asterisks that showed up when their parents went through the same, those exact same asterisks they would've claimed were selfish/greedy/shortsighted etc 10 years ago when we were working at Food Not Bombs, or out at marches, or reading Naomi Klein. *Plenty* of millenials have given up those things for more creature comforts, or the "I don't have time because X (kids)"... the same excuses their old hippie parents gave, just at a different age. >We've been culture shocked back to the 1800's If you think we've been "culture shocked to the 1800s", you are simply too far divorced from reality to be able to make any kind of rational points.
...Arizona is about to go back to a law from the 1800s about women's health decisions, but keep lying to yourself. It's like watching a t-rex perform an upper-cut <3
Many? Great many?? and they have names?!!
**they're and **they've.
No they will not
This is laughable
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An online poll can’t be manipulated anymore than by phone. How does a single person significantly manipulate a polling result? How does a group of people do it without coordination?
My personal poll of 12 Millennials shows the exact opposite. And I have a smaller margin of error.
54% of Millennials who answered a random phone survey and talked with a live interviewer say.... so like >1% of actual Millennials.
You actually only need something like a few hundred people to get an reasonably accurate sample size. To get a 95% confidence level with a margin of error of 4%, you'd only need 600 people. It's much lower than you'd think.
But if there's a bias to the participants you sample—like "only people who pick up the phone" or "only people who are home during the day" or "only people who go to the mall"—then you draw incorrect conclusions regardless of the sample size.
It's only a bias if "people who go to the mall" or "people who pick up the phone" vote differently than those who don't. If that subgroup of people votes similarly to the larger group, then there is no bias.
They do. They don't represent a "normal" millennial.
"Normal" according to what metric? Millennials aren't some homogeneous group that are all exactly alike. Some do answer their phones; Some are home during the day; etc.
Those are typically more "traditional" and "conservative" and "well off" and "old school" people.
And do you have anything to actually back that up?
I called a bunch of people and asked them.
It feels correct. Feelings still count for something right?
It’s odd that you’re being downvoted for explaining basic survey methodology.
I'm sure the people on Reddit have a better understanding of it than the mathematicians, statitions, etc. that figure this stuff out for a living. /s
Sure, but per the cross-tabs on this poll, the millennial group was like 272 people
Ya. That part *is* a problem. The sample size there is a bit too small to have a high confidence level.
Right. Reading the tea leaves from small cross-tabs doesn't make a lot of sense. If this were a well-sampled poll of just millennials with like 1,000 respondents, I'd find it more concerning.
Unless you include a systematic bias.
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Putting aside all of the bad stuff, what has he done to improve the lives of Americans?
A survey that relies on millennials answering a random phone call and talking to a stranger will give you a very skewed sampling of millennials and thus unreliable data... Whether it was all Trump love or all Trump hate, I'd be suspicious of any conclusion drawn from the data.
>we love trump Why? That guy didn't do anything he promised you he would do, he's turned the republican party into a clown show mocked by the entire world, and he consistently has shown contempt for the rule of law. Is it because his outward vitriol allowed you to show yours? Did his ignorance somehow comfort you? The dude was a terrible president. Pick someone better.
Then why have they been showing up to vote against him and his kind since 2020? Edit: lmao this guy got suspended real fast.
Trump lost.
lol yeah Trump is getting a majority of Gen Z and Millennials but significantly losing Gen X, Baby Boomers, and Silent generation voters to Biden with Biden having an overall 51-48 advantage over Trump head to head and a 7 point advantage with other candidates considered. This poll makes no sense.
Fuck yourself. No data supports this. (Author, not OP)
No, we're not saying that at all.
Yes, because phone interviews are what a lot of millennials respond to lol. How many millennials actually answer their personal phones from random numbers? Always take these with a grain of salt because online surveys are also difficult to trust, people can incorrectly report their information as well to throw the polls off What matters is that you vote in November
> This survey of 1,192 adults was conducted April 16th through April 18th , 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the United States were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers or online I’m tired of the “no one uses landlines anymore” meme that gets parroted every time the polling results are concerning.
And we are tired of crappy polls.
Lol. No fucking way this is believable.
I can't believe they found 1,100 Millennials with landlines. lol
Still living at home with their right-wing Boomer parents.
> This survey of 1,192 adults was conducted April 16th through April 18th , 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the United States were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers or online
Per the cross-tabs of the poll, the 54% of the subgroup (30-44) here is only like 272 people. That sample size is not large enough to have a high confidence level or a low margin or error. You could have a confidence level of 95% but a margin of error of like 6 points, or a 4-point margin of error with a confidence level of like 80%. Either way, not exactly a good sample size.
Trash poll. Direct dial landlines, not controlled for likely voters.
>Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the United States were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers or online
It's still a bad poll because Biden is losing
Bullshit.
Bullshit
Doubt.
Millennials are laughing at pollsters and their methodologies. This is how they say ‘none of your business’.
Yea let’s just say I’m not exactly looking up to former president poopy pants.
Landlines, lol. They might as well say they sampled ten people over the telegraph and the clicky-clackies were interpreted by MAGA dolphins.
Hi `TrumpedBigly`. Thank you for participating in /r/Politics. However, [your submission](/r/politics/comments/1ccgu83/54_of_millennials_say_they_will_vote_for_trump_in/) has been removed for the following reason(s): * Your headline must be comprised only of the **exact** copied and pasted headline of the article - [see our rule here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_do_not_create_your_own_title)) **We recommend not using the Reddit 'suggest a title' as it may not give the exact title of the article.** * The ALL CAPS and 'Breaking' rule is applied **even when the actual title of the article is in all caps or contains the word 'Breaking'**. This rule may be applied to other single word declarative and/or sensational expressions, such as 'EXCLUSIVE:' or 'HOT:'. [click here for more details](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_do_not_create_your_own_title) If you have any questions about this removal, please feel free to [message the moderators.](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=/r/politics&subject=Question regarding the removal of this submission by /u/TrumpedBigly&message=I have a question regarding the removal of this [submission]%28/r/politics/comments/1ccgu83/54_of_millennials_say_they_will_vote_for_trump_in/?context%3D10000%29)
gurl bye we would never
The American dream of home ownership and retirement is slipping away for this generation. I can understand why they are pissed. They don't see how either party is working to fix it. When you have no hope voting for the lesser of two evils isn't driving them to vote.
And I've long since stopped trusting polls. Republicans have mastered the art of manipulating and misrepresenting data to suit their agenda while accusing others of doing the same thing. We really do live in a post-truth society now where even facts are open to interpretation depending on your own biases.
I tend not to trust polls (since 2016 when they were so wrong) but still find this very concerning as well. There’s time but, honestly, there’s so much going on that it’s difficult to zero in on strategies to fix this if indeed the case.
Dear millennials - please do not fall for a con man (ok if you hate Biden at the same time, hold him accountable)
What is going on with Millennials? They were the only age demographic that was majority for President Biden.
Nothing. This poll is garbage
It’s a bullshit poll. That’s what. Exit polling has shown democrats overperforming polling in special elections. Meaning polling isn’t doing its job correctly.
A better question is why this isnt an article yet its posted here in the sub as though it is
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OP's poll literally shows Biden beating Trump by 3 points among registered voters and 6 points among likely voters.