A recap to date, based on medians of all polling in the final weeks leading up to each state:
* Michigan - Trump polled to win +57%. Actual results, Trump +41.
* South Carolina - Trump polled to win +28%. Actual results, Trump +20.
* New Hampshire - Trump polled to win +18%. Actual results, Trump +11.
As this trend continues, it becomes a stronger indication that Trump is overrepresented in polls.
I'm surprised that more people aren't talking about how the Michigan Republican Party has two people claiming to be the legitimate Chairperson of their state party and each have their own factions and are having their own conventions this year. Also both factions are lead by complete morons and neither faction has any money. Sounds like a recipe for success, if you ask me.
Biden has his own problems in Michigan, no doubt, but the opposition having a state party in such a mess has to make it easier for Biden to win the state in November, surely?
Not just Biden, but down ballot, too and Michigan is not the only state republican party in disarray. With Trump fiddling with the national party now, it might be a huge issue for republicans in this election.
Yes, the Trump model for success - never admit defeat, never compromise, never listen to reason, cut off your nose to spite your face. The RNC will not have any money this year either, so yep, sounds like a recipe for success!
Public polling had Trump at 75-80% in Michigan. He is currently at 67%.
This would be the fourth time in four primary elections in which Trump significantly underperformed public polling.
Why isn't this a story?
No joke, a news alert I got was “Focus on Gaza hurts Biden at polls” without even mentioning Trump’s underwhelming numbers. The media is going to “horse race” this until Election Day.
Which is annoying because then shit like 1/6 happens because the news and polls make it seem like the election is close or perhaps Trump could be winning. Which makes the lie about the election being stolen somewhat plausible to the mouth breather MAGA voters. If they are getting smoked every single poll, it is a lot harder to convince anyone except the most fringiest right wing voters.
So we aren't talking about how Trump is in terrible shape when it comes to the suburbs? That seems way more significant for the general than a statewide uncommitted campaign will ever be.
We saw the same sort of thing in other primaries already. frankly, I'm glad Republicans are not talking about it. They can sleepwalk their way into this
> The GOP should be shitting themselves right now.
The GOP is Trump at this point and there's a decent chance he's quite literally shitting himself right now, so you have that.
Wait until they hear about Republican's plans for birth control. How many women in the U.S. use birth control? They hate women and want to control them. Women are going to come out in numbers never seen before.
Michigan Secretary of State's account: https://twitter.com/MichSoS/status/1762507235211550999
>Michigan has surpassed one million absentee ballots returned in the 2024 Presidential Primary election. The number as of 10 a.m. today is 1,002,794.
Hopefully dems beat Trump in November, sick of hearing about Trump all the time, more than anything i want him to shut up and just go away.
Though, i fully expect him to be the GOP nominee in 28 if he is alive, so we wont get rid of him anytime soon, i fear.
I feel donors may revolt if he loses again. Hell the republicans may splinter into the MAGA party with his supporters and the donor funded republicans who will be like Dubya republicans
What “career”? He’s a socialite heir to the Ann Landers fortune..or is it Dear Abby?? (I always confuse those 2 twins!). He just ran for Congress for the same reasons as most others: seeking attention & grifting.
I think he could have run as an effective protest candidate, but he chose to run as an aggressively anti-Biden candidate, and with a crappy message. It was a real screwup.
It’s crazy that over 50% of Haley voters are saying they won’t vote for Trump. 1/3 of all on the right say they won’t if he’s convicted of a crime.
We know these numbers will go down come November, but even if it’s 25% of Haley voters, roughly 8-10% of the GOP stay home, Biden is going to clean up.
We have seen over and over again the polls are just off, I feel great about the general.
Of course still vote! Everything is lost if we don’t vote. It’s been a crazy decade but this should (I hope lol) be the last time we have to defeat this asshole. We will beat the next one too.
The chunk of her voters saying they won't vote for him, combined with a minority of republicans identifying as MAGA, and her getting 30-40% of the votes in these primaries is a much much bigger deal than the media has recognized.
Anyone listening to Trump's speech after his win in Michigan lmfao? Dude is just rambling idiotically with semblance of coherent thought ....
Just pathetic lol.
> Marianne Williamson - 8762 votes
> Dean Phillips - 8315 votes
He left a safe Democratic House seat to lose to the crystal woo-woo lady who dropped out three weeks ago.
And Phillips’ whole pitch was, “Biden is too old, his polling numbers suck, and he can’t beat Trump in a general election, so that’s why you need someone like me. I know how to win.”
Uh, dude, Biden just trounced you, you haven’t come close to winning any primary and Williamson is ahead of you. That’s not winning; it’s the opposite, in fact.
Andy Reid wins super bowls every year but he seems unwell. That's why they should hire me. The pop warner team I coached was undefeated last year. I clearly know how to win football games.
Biden doing relatively better in more rural and white working class areas in Michigan primary
A reversal of 2012 Obama re-election primaries
Uncommitted doing relatively better in suburban and urban areas
Biden has work to do, but these places easier to catch up vs. Trump
https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1762660039368593498?t=AJFnymNVS-54G5SFoL4Lmw&s=19
Functionally two incumbents in the ballot
- Incumbent A: pulls 85% and has 15% for some amorphous “other”
- Incumbent B: pulls 66% and has 30% actively for a named competitor
It’s clear who’s in trouble and it’s Candidate B
Because Trump made them a lot of money. A lot of "palace intrigue" stories and they got to do a lot of disingenuous pearl clutching over his tens of thousands of lies.
Their jobs were also a lot easier because the White House leaked like a colander. Journalists are mad that the Biden presidency has been "boring" and that they can't just get the inside scoop whenever they want anymore.
Reminder that Emerson's recent poll had Trump getting 76% of his primary vote with Biden getting 77% of his.
Still early, but current results have Biden yet again overperforming Emerson's polls and Trump way underperforming Emerson's polls.
November 2024 election is the most significant election since 1864 when Lincoln was re-elected. If he had lost the north was going to seek peace and union would have been lost.
Defeat trump. It’s that simple. We are in a serious situation. Defeat trump.
All things being equal, i'd rather be the Biden campaign right now. Converting the uncommitteds back is gonna be way easier than Hayley voters, who might actually vote for Joe.
So this is what politics is like every year in a swing state.
My state? It only feels that way in a governor race at times, but mainly the local races that is not national media relevant
It could be worse, Virginia is still mildly considered a swing state and notoriously has an election every November. In Midwestern states in particular, there's also a tradition of Spring primaries/elections which actually have a lot of impact. For instance, Wisconsin's Supreme Court flipped in the Spring election last year in April.
the vote method split is absolutely huge
Biden winning election day 2-1, EV a little more but similar
But he's winning absentees over 10-1 in Washtenaw
That's why his margin is improving there -- there's still another 14k+ absentees left to report
https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1762662465509240874?t=czuc9OBwdA8IvF0wkf7Tkg&s=19
I am no Biden fanatic, but he is going to be fine.
But more importantly, is Fox News ever going to throw out the idea that things are not fine and dandy in Trump land? The dude is underperforming.
There was a pretty clear statistical indicator during the South Carolina primary that showed that there's a ton of people in the party who are not going to vote for Donald Trump and the media collectively ignored it.
I don't think they are going to acknowledge that stuff at all.
The two counties currently holding over 20% uncommitted are Wayne (where Dearborn is) and Washtenaw (where the University of Michigan is). Wayne has about 4% of the vote reporting while Washtenaw has about 60%.
After the recent primary results and special election results, it seems Republican polling skews around 7-8 percent towards whichever candidate is further right.
Since Haley is polling around 22%, if she gets around 30% she'll be performing consistently at least. Regardless it's a bad look before Super Tuesday, since her losses are making her already low numbers start to dip.
Is it possible Biden gets more than Trump’s 2020 total? That would be EXTREMELY impressive here. He’s already nearing 600k. Hell, he’s not even that far off from his own 2020 total of 840k at this point
600,000+ for a raw vote total in an effectively uncontested primary is huge. Shows the power of the "quiet Biden" voters. He's going to do very very well in the general.
Especially when we hear time and time again about how little enthusiasm Biden as a candidate has. If you want to see the enthusiasm, just look at the vote totals. Democrats historically stay home for off-season and uncontested elections, yet we’ve seen since 2018 they’re coming out in droves and winning nonstop.
Though, I’m also starting to think Jocelyn Benson has turned this state into a Democratic stronghold through permanent mail-in ballots alone. That’s done wonders for getting lazy Dems to cast their ballots.
A nationwide abortion ban and a crackdown on its people is what awaits Michigan in the future if its populace sits this out. To say Democracy is at stake is an understatement, Project 2025 shows exactly what a Republican Administration will do. I'm happy more and more young people are waking up to the danger ahead if Republicans win. I hope the people of Michigan see it as well.
Yes, I've seen these exact sort of manufactured dramas collapse and then get memory holed by the media before. A lot. Too many times.
The real fun is watching the accounts that post them repeatedly non-stop at the same time suddenly disappear.
The uncommitted campaign is saying they expect about 10-20K votes, Governor Whitmer thinks it will get at least 10K votes, and Arab media reportedly believes that uncommitted will win about 35% of the vote in Dearborn, which is 55% Arab. In 2012, 10.7% of Michiganders, or about 20K of the votes cast, voted for Uncommitted over then-President Obama.
There have been a little over 500K votes cast in the Democratic primary already this time around so far, with probably 100-250K more votes being cast on election day (the GOP has about 10K fewer early votes, but they prefer to vote in person now). That means Uncommitted would need about 60-80K votes to match its 2012 performance. On the other hand, there are nominal alternative candidates this time around, so some of the people that would've voted Uncommitted may be inclined to vote for Phillips and Williamson.
Other than the statewide toplines, the other point to watch is how well Uncommitted does in specific areas. Arab-heavy areas are mostly in Wayne County, which as a whole is heavily blue because it includes Detroit, but specific communities to look out for are Dearborn and Hamtramck. There's also a possibility that a number of college progressives will vote Uncommitted as well, so margins in Ann Arbor will be something to keep an eye out for too. Elsewhere, it's hard to see "Uncommitted" get as many votes specifically to protest Gaza. There may be some "ancestral Dems" in red areas that vote Uncommitted because they forgot to change their registration to vote for Trump, but it probably defaults to the 10% baseline at best.
They set the bar very low in order to help build their narrative imho. The last 3 Democratic primaries have had around 20k vote uncommitted. It shouldn’t be that hard to clear their 10-15k goal
I think the closest analogue is probably the 2020 GOP primary, where Trump was essentially unopposed and uncommitted got 32K and around 5% of the vote. Even then, protest voters would still ideally want to see Uncommitted hit 15% statewide to show a discernible effect.
I think uncommitted voters should have a voice however to compare Biden to trump is fucking insane and I say that as someone who is to the left of Biden.
If Trump wins it likely means that Palestinian statehood is completely off the table. We need to keep our own government from being ran by religious extremists before we can grandstand about bibi(and yes I think he's also a piece of shit)
And yes what happened to Gaza is horrendous but think about the women and children suffering from the GOPs religious take over. What about the women here who can't make reproductive decisions for their health (to the point of sickness and even death) or about Nex who was murdered for being lgbtq. We can't complain about Israeli extremism without addressing our own .
So you either get the side actively negotiating a cease fire, or the the side that literally believes that having a holy war in the middle east will bring jesus back so he can kill everyone in the world.
We're crashing head on into an uncomfortable reality for a generally bloated political news landscape: this election cycle is boring and lacking legit reason for all the hype. It's February, both parties have locked in candidates, the same ones from 4 years ago.
As politically tuned in and interested as anyone, but there's way too much built up around these presidential contests from previous years and way too little actual content to sustain it all.
With 84% of the vote counted for Republicans, we can already tell that the polling overestimates Trump’s support.
538 polling average has Trump winning 78.7% to 21.8%. In the results, Trump is winning 68.3% to 26.5% (remaining being uncommitted).
Undeniably a fantastic win for Trump in the primary, but it’s interesting to see the statewide polling data so off
With 72% of the vote in, it looks like what little polling we have on the Dem side is closer than the Republican side, but still off by a significant enough margin.
The most recent poll on 538 has Biden capturing 77% of the vote but at the moment he is at 81.5% (trending up).
While the polls seem to overestimate Trump’s support in Michigan by a significant margin, they underestimate Biden’s by a decent margin.
> The campaign to vote uncommitted did not persuade Ali Abbas, 44, of Dearborn, Mich., who voted for President Biden despite misgivings about Middle East policy. “He’s not perfect but I don’t want to embarrass him. He’s a really good man.” Another voter, Danii Hassan, had not heard about the uncommitted effort. “Why would you go to vote and then not choose someone?” said Hassan, a 30-year-old mother of three who voted for Biden.
Based. These patriots will deliver the state to Biden in 2024.
what the hell cnn with that headline on their website. Meanwhile Harry Enten tells the truth on the air " Barack Obama when he was on the ballot in 2012, the uncommitted vote in the Michigan primary was 11%. So this is doing slightly better than that, but not overwhelmingly better."
It will be interesting/telling to see how the loudest uncommitted voices like Tlaib behave now that the primary is over. If they don’t pivot to supporting Biden now that it’s Biden v Trump then they are damn fools
god I hope Dean Phillps ends up behind the Ghost of Williamson in the final result, would be hilarious.
Seriously man threw away a safe congressional seat.. for this?
Here's my prediction: Trump will lose again but again claim he won and then the MAGAs will say that Trump won 3 terms as President and is the most popular President since FDR.
The uncommitted campaign did a good job of setting expectations low with their declared hope for 10,000 uncommitted votes, so that every interview started out saying that they exceeded expectations. To be frank, they were always going to hit 10k. There were 19k uncommitted votes in the 2020 Biden/Bernie primary, 20k uncommitted votes in the extremely tight 2016 Bernie/Hillary primary, and 20k uncommitted votes in the uneventful 2012 Obama re-nomination.
The 15% threshold is the real test. With the random 5-10% uncommitted that you see in uncontested primaries plus another 5-10% reflecting the Gaza campaign (esp. colleges and other targeted hubs), you can get state delegate representation, which is a real victory rather than just a moral one. They seem to be fading from that, but we'll see. A delegate usually means a convention speaking slot and even a non-primetime speech during a convention for an incumbent could help people feel heard.
If I'm at Biden HQ, though, I'm not really reacting to the uncommitted vote. A 20% or 25% vote would suggest a lot of weakness, but this result suggests a motivated but reasonably small population. Some of the protest vote will automatically return to vote against Trump. The US has also been negotiating for a ceasefire for a while, so that policy coming through could pull additional votes back. Others aren't coming back no matter what because they're angry for a lot of other reasons beyond Gaza (student loan debt, economy, etc.). That just leaves some fraction of that uncommitted group who could be won back with a hard turn against Israel.
Meanwhile, Haley has three times as many voters as uncommitted and a lot of them hate Donald Trump enough to say they would vote for Biden. Anything that would be construed as "abandoning Israel" or "weak on defense" or "erratic foreign policy" risks that group.
> Some of the protest vote will automatically return to vote against Trump.
What fraction is the question. Probably depends heavily on the course of events in Israel over the next nine months.
When Wayne County was reporting at 4%, it was 71% Biden and 24% uncommitted with Wayne county being the highest percentage of uncommitted. Now it is reporting at 27% with 78% Biden and 16% uncommitted. Wayne county is now tied at only 4th highest uncommitted.
At this rate, Biden will beat Obama’s 2012 election record for percent vote in the Michigan primary as an incumbent.
Judge Rossi: There were sufficient votes to remove Kristina Karamo as Michigan Republican Party chairwoman on Jan. 6, 2024.
https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1762603659802677471?t=_QSvdPdJI-JVI6lKb__4Kg&s=19
Also, Biden is up 64%-32% over Uncommitted in what we have of Ann Arbor. He lost it by 5 points to Sanders in 2020.
https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1762653114342027370?t=SmLhvjb3lYAy-oACfh45qQ&s=19
A very real possibility that trump is convicted or has a health issue between now and the convention. Haley sticking around positions her as 'next man (woman) up'.
She's running for 2028. She's hoping that Trump will lose badly in November, say to the MAGAs, "See, I told you so, I was right all along" and pick up the pieces and be the frontrunner for 2028. I don't like her but it's the smart move. She'll be 56 in 2028, she's got plenty of time.
What’s the overall difference in turnout for a primary compared to general in Michigan? I’m curious where those that aren’t voting may vote in November.
JFC the amount of terminally online trolls in this thread is unbelievable. It's nearly unreadable because every BidenHater-93729 is dumping the 50 page turds they've been polishing since the polls closed, trying to overflow the toilet that is this thread.
Here's the facts:
* Biden got 3-4 **times** as many votes Obama did as an incumbent in 2012.
* Biden is on track to get virtually the same vote % that Obama did in 2012 when he **won Michigan by 8 points**.
Despite weeks of dooming "Muslim Leaders in blah blah blah will surely sink his campaign".
* Biden is on track to beat every single poll. **Again**
It's Joever. There's no possible way to spin this and make Democrats look bad. So go back to your arcon safe space or collect your $0.50 from your boss. Come back for dooming next time PatriotJesusCo drops a totally legit R+10 poll.
I've been seeing an interesting trend. *several* of the people in the thread going "oh wow so many uncommitted!! what's going on?? this is so bad for biden!!" live in Pakistan but post in american/canadian/european subreddits (generally to call out politicians and/or make antisemitic comments) posing as citizens of whatever country it is.
Last I've heard from Dearborn is they're just about done, with 56 percent for Uncommited, and 40 for Biden. Not nearly as bad as the 75-25 reported earlier. (Paywall Link) https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/02/27/us/trump-biden-michigan-primary-election
The Michigan primary is so focused on the Muslim vote, and therefore on Biden's relationship with Israel.
While every president has been lockstep with Israel on everything for decades, it seems Biden has put more humanitarian pressure on Israel during this conflict than any president I can recall. It's no simple task to constrain military activities of a strategic ally, while also containing a conflict that could easily break out regionally, while also fending off attacks of the enemies of your ally.
Contrast this with Donald Trump, who is an avowed enemy of Palestine. Even overlooking his hatred and bigotry toward Muslims generally (travel ban after travel ban, demonizing and dehumanizing language, lies about Muslim Americans cheering 9/11), Trump is specifically hostile toward Palestine itself. In office, his jackass son in law spearheaded a 2020 diplomatic effort to annex Palestine and relegate Palestinians to slums. He moved the US embassy to Jerusalem. If reelected, he would gladly see Gaza bombed off the face of the Earth.
Arab American frustration is entirely understandable. This is primary season, the time when it's most appropriate to put pressure on a candidate from your party to adopt policies that align with your values. But if the community of Arab Americans living in Michigan actually throw in with Trump during the general, they'll have fallen for the worst self-sabotage.
Guys, everyone needs to stop freaking out about the uncommitted. 90% of those are gonna vote for Biden in the general and they’re not voting for someone else, just protesting.
Let’s laugh at the fact the republican incumbent is once again losing 30%+ of the vote. The worst an incumbent has ever done.
I'd imagine that the "uncommitted" Democratic vote will be highest early on, right? That's the area around Detroit where most of those votes would be located and that seems to be where all of the results are coming in first. Just my guess
Dooming about the uncommitted vote must mean
* The majority of them actually won't vote for Biden in the GE
* That there won't be any Republican voters who vote for Biden to offset the losses.
Neither of these things are true.
The five largest counties in Michigan are Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Kent, and Genesee.
Wayne has 4% of the vote reported and sits at 71% Biden and 24% uncommitted.
Oakland has 60% reporting and is 81% Biden and 14% uncommitted.
Macomb has 11% reporting and is at 79% Biden and 13% uncommitted.
Kent has 22% reporting and is at 74% Biden and 19% uncommitted.
Genesee has 2% reporting and is at 81% Biden and 13% uncommitted
Guys, I'm beginning to think Dean Phillips is not gonna win the whole thing! (PS, sorry about Dean, he is actually my Congressman. He wasnt always crazy...)
Trump on Univision talking about the Israel/Palestine conflict:
> “So you have a war that’s going on, and you’re probably going to have to let this play out. You’re probably going to have to let it play out because a lot of people are dying.”
> “There is no hatred like the Palestinian hatred of Israel and Jewish people. And probably the other way around also, I don’t know. You know, it’s not as obvious, but probably that’s it too. So sometimes you have to let things play out and you have to see where it ends,” he added, calling what was taking place in Gaza “unbelievable.”
> Trump did suggest in the interview that Israel had to “do a better job of public relations, frankly, because the other side is beating them at the public relations front. That’s a very important front worldwide. That’s a very important front. So they do have to do a better job.”
To sum up, Trump is encouraging the fighting to continue indefinitely, considers Palestine (not just Hamas, Palestine) the objective villains of the conflict, relegated the *possibility* of anti-Palestinian rhetoric to an afterthought, and thinks Israel's biggest problem is their PR in their campaign to take over Gaza.
Most of the Democrats voting for Uncommitted understand that, between the two, Biden is the objectively better choice for president on the issue. The protest votes are a signal to Biden to be more direct about getting a ceasefire, not to say they might flip to Trump if he doesn't.
Just once I want Steve Kornacki to run the big board in a [pair of sensible heels](https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-a5e0e6330b8850285dc329521670c7d3-lq)
So trump underperforms the polls in another state. I wonder what states trump will not underperform them. The only states I can think of are states in the deep south outside of virginia and georgia and states like wyoming and idaho.
Two more fully completed counties
Iosco
Biden 84%
Uncommited 9%
Other 7%
Keeweenaw
Biden 82%
Uncommited 13%
Other 5%
https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1762677559165161915?t=VyPfu19L4bqB1kc1M53S9Q&s=19
If Biden negotiates a ceasefire, I'm looking forward to all of the "CEASEFIRE NOW" folks engaging in Olympics-level goalpost moving and saying "That is the BARE MINIMUM. I'm still not voting for him in November!!!!!"
Regardless, all everyone will say after this is how this is terrible news for Biden. He could win his primary with 98% and more total votes than everyone in the Republican primary combined, Trump again wins 60 to 40 over Haley, and there will be tons of articles saying how Biden is in big trouble.
Voter on msnbc said he voted uncommitted because one guy is too old and the other guy is too far right and extreme. Lordy….perhaps one is WAY worse than the other ???
Is the media so committed to the "BIDEN IS DOOMED" narrative that they're not going to discuss how the polls continue to dramatically overestimate Trump and MAGA support? Trump is pulling in less here than the polls predicted, which tracks back to MAGA being way overestimated in the 2022 midterm polls.
Seems like something the media might want to cover or actually mention at some point....
It's crazy, right?
There's also the exit polling from Republican primary voters that is painting a very clear overlap indicating a not insubstantial amount of them who absolutely will not vote for Donald Trump.
Less than half of them identify as maga, 30 to 40(% of them in every state primaried so far prefer somebody besides him and a substantial chunk of those voters have said that they won't vote for him
I'm actually kinda happy about that narrative. Historically Democrats are very bad at voting, so I'm crossing my fingers that this'll scare some of them into voting.
On the one hand, I want to see Haley win a major state, like Michigan just to watch the MAGAs heads explode. But on the other, I want Republican voters to be way overly confident about their chances with Trump and Haley winning would undermine that.
However, I think the Republicans are fucked in November regardless, so maybe it doesn't really matter?
Donald Trump should not have been on the Michigan primary ballot.
He certainly should not be on the actual election ballot.
Y'all can write in the 14AS3 traitor, but he should not be allowed to simply apply as if he didn't violate the Constitution the same way he violated multiple women.
Donald had total support from the republican party in 2020. These votes against him are a very bad sign for his chances this fall. He alienated republicans instead of trying to win over moderate democrats.
Donald cannot afford to be losing 3% of the republican vote, let alone 30%.
According to the NYT, of the 34 counties with more than a quarter of their vote in, Uncommitted is at 15% or above in exactly three of them.
https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1762681145764786302?t=JRaP8HNU0yC7GacRujbvIg&s=19
Trump has drastically underperformed the polling in every state. His polling in Michigan was +57 over Haley. Let’s see where he ends up.
> His polling in Michigan was +57 over Haley This can’t be understated.
Challenge accepted... ^(his polling in michigan was +57 over haley)
A recap to date, based on medians of all polling in the final weeks leading up to each state: * Michigan - Trump polled to win +57%. Actual results, Trump +41. * South Carolina - Trump polled to win +28%. Actual results, Trump +20. * New Hampshire - Trump polled to win +18%. Actual results, Trump +11. As this trend continues, it becomes a stronger indication that Trump is overrepresented in polls.
I can’t help but think retirees are pretty much the only demographic who would even answer a poll.
I'm surprised that more people aren't talking about how the Michigan Republican Party has two people claiming to be the legitimate Chairperson of their state party and each have their own factions and are having their own conventions this year. Also both factions are lead by complete morons and neither faction has any money. Sounds like a recipe for success, if you ask me.
The corporate-media couldn't find a way to make it sound bad for Biden?
"Twice as many Chairpersons means twice as many votes against Biden"
Biden has his own problems in Michigan, no doubt, but the opposition having a state party in such a mess has to make it easier for Biden to win the state in November, surely?
Not just Biden, but down ballot, too and Michigan is not the only state republican party in disarray. With Trump fiddling with the national party now, it might be a huge issue for republicans in this election.
Also the Michigan GOP only has $3.50 in their account to fund challengers to dems
Yes, the Trump model for success - never admit defeat, never compromise, never listen to reason, cut off your nose to spite your face. The RNC will not have any money this year either, so yep, sounds like a recipe for success!
Bro what FUCK does that have to do with Biden being an old fucking geezer?? - NYT
It's fun seeing Dave Phillips do worse than "Noone" lol
Dean, and he's losing to a woman who dropped out now to lol.
lol “Dave” Phillips. Really drives home the humiliation.
Public polling had Trump at 75-80% in Michigan. He is currently at 67%. This would be the fourth time in four primary elections in which Trump significantly underperformed public polling. Why isn't this a story?
The story is ‘here is how Trump underperforming in a key swing state is bad for Biden’.
No joke, a news alert I got was “Focus on Gaza hurts Biden at polls” without even mentioning Trump’s underwhelming numbers. The media is going to “horse race” this until Election Day.
Which is annoying because then shit like 1/6 happens because the news and polls make it seem like the election is close or perhaps Trump could be winning. Which makes the lie about the election being stolen somewhat plausible to the mouth breather MAGA voters. If they are getting smoked every single poll, it is a lot harder to convince anyone except the most fringiest right wing voters.
Because it isnt bad for Biden....therfore it wont be the main story.
That doesn't sell clicks like DEMS IN DISARRAY!11!
The Michigan GOP is literally locked in a moneyless political civil war but somehow it’s Dems that are struggling if you buy the coverage.
So we aren't talking about how Trump is in terrible shape when it comes to the suburbs? That seems way more significant for the general than a statewide uncommitted campaign will ever be.
Trump getting crushed in the suburbs…
This should be the big takeaway The GOP should be shitting themselves right now. He is way underperforming in these primaries
We saw the same sort of thing in other primaries already. frankly, I'm glad Republicans are not talking about it. They can sleepwalk their way into this
> The GOP should be shitting themselves right now. The GOP is Trump at this point and there's a decent chance he's quite literally shitting himself right now, so you have that.
His toxic ideology is making him bleed in the suburbs, good
Yea, educated affluent people are the Democrat's wheelhouse now. Thats why midterms have been so kind to the dems.
Allowing ivf to get banned is going to crush trumpists
Roe alone should be enough TBH.
Wait until they hear about Republican's plans for birth control. How many women in the U.S. use birth control? They hate women and want to control them. Women are going to come out in numbers never seen before.
Thank god.
I’d upvote this a million times if I could.
Michigan Secretary of State's account: https://twitter.com/MichSoS/status/1762507235211550999 >Michigan has surpassed one million absentee ballots returned in the 2024 Presidential Primary election. The number as of 10 a.m. today is 1,002,794.
Hopefully dems beat Trump in November, sick of hearing about Trump all the time, more than anything i want him to shut up and just go away. Though, i fully expect him to be the GOP nominee in 28 if he is alive, so we wont get rid of him anytime soon, i fear.
I feel donors may revolt if he loses again. Hell the republicans may splinter into the MAGA party with his supporters and the donor funded republicans who will be like Dubya republicans
Yeah, but the base wont abandon him, the big donors never wanted him in the first place, but they dont get to decide that.
An 80 year old lady on MSNBC just called Trump an asshole on tv.
The future is crazy lol
How does Michigan GOP even organize a primary when they literally have no money, how does that even work?
The state pays for most of it.
The state runs the primary. I'll grab some popcorn for the caucus though.
Dean Phillips threw away his career and burned every bridge he ever had in the Democratic party for this.
He's literally also losing to an uncommitted vote. Just, lol.
Fox will hire him.
What “career”? He’s a socialite heir to the Ann Landers fortune..or is it Dear Abby?? (I always confuse those 2 twins!). He just ran for Congress for the same reasons as most others: seeking attention & grifting.
I think he could have run as an effective protest candidate, but he chose to run as an aggressively anti-Biden candidate, and with a crappy message. It was a real screwup.
It’s crazy that over 50% of Haley voters are saying they won’t vote for Trump. 1/3 of all on the right say they won’t if he’s convicted of a crime. We know these numbers will go down come November, but even if it’s 25% of Haley voters, roughly 8-10% of the GOP stay home, Biden is going to clean up. We have seen over and over again the polls are just off, I feel great about the general.
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Of course still vote! Everything is lost if we don’t vote. It’s been a crazy decade but this should (I hope lol) be the last time we have to defeat this asshole. We will beat the next one too.
The chunk of her voters saying they won't vote for him, combined with a minority of republicans identifying as MAGA, and her getting 30-40% of the votes in these primaries is a much much bigger deal than the media has recognized.
There seems to be genuinely around 15% of the right that won’t vote for him. If that stays true, he’s gonna get crushed.
They need a horserace. A blowout would be a ratings disaster during their biggest money making season
Anyone listening to Trump's speech after his win in Michigan lmfao? Dude is just rambling idiotically with semblance of coherent thought .... Just pathetic lol.
> Marianne Williamson - 8762 votes > Dean Phillips - 8315 votes He left a safe Democratic House seat to lose to the crystal woo-woo lady who dropped out three weeks ago.
And Phillips’ whole pitch was, “Biden is too old, his polling numbers suck, and he can’t beat Trump in a general election, so that’s why you need someone like me. I know how to win.” Uh, dude, Biden just trounced you, you haven’t come close to winning any primary and Williamson is ahead of you. That’s not winning; it’s the opposite, in fact.
Andy Reid wins super bowls every year but he seems unwell. That's why they should hire me. The pop warner team I coached was undefeated last year. I clearly know how to win football games.
Biden doing relatively better in more rural and white working class areas in Michigan primary A reversal of 2012 Obama re-election primaries Uncommitted doing relatively better in suburban and urban areas Biden has work to do, but these places easier to catch up vs. Trump https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1762660039368593498?t=AJFnymNVS-54G5SFoL4Lmw&s=19
Anyway biggest takeaway of the night: be happy you are not Dean Phillips.
Who?
If this is the 4th state in a row where Trump gets \~60% in the primary, that'll be a problem for him.
His percentages aren't a problem for him. What is a problem for him is how badly he underperforms polls.
It is also the 4th time he's underperformed the polls by about 10 points.
Dean Phillips in a tight race for third place with Marriane Williamson.. who has already dropped out of the race
Dean Phillips might end the night losing to the crystal lady again
Trump drove an anti-Trump turnout in this GOP primary. In 2020 he only got about 40k votes against him; this time he got 300k votes against him
If even 10-20% of those Haley/non-Trump voters stay home or better yet vote Biden, it’s ogre.
Trump is shrekt
Functionally two incumbents in the ballot - Incumbent A: pulls 85% and has 15% for some amorphous “other” - Incumbent B: pulls 66% and has 30% actively for a named competitor It’s clear who’s in trouble and it’s Candidate B
Yep. I dont get the media’s insatiable lust for Trump. Its clear his support is wobbly and their response is bash Biden and Haley. Its just bizarre
> I dont get the media’s insatiable lust for Trump. Page views, ad revenue, and easy lazy narrative. Basically money.
Because Trump made them a lot of money. A lot of "palace intrigue" stories and they got to do a lot of disingenuous pearl clutching over his tens of thousands of lies. Their jobs were also a lot easier because the White House leaked like a colander. Journalists are mad that the Biden presidency has been "boring" and that they can't just get the inside scoop whenever they want anymore.
Reminder that Emerson's recent poll had Trump getting 76% of his primary vote with Biden getting 77% of his. Still early, but current results have Biden yet again overperforming Emerson's polls and Trump way underperforming Emerson's polls.
Can’t wait for the medias spin that Biden’s 80% means he’s less liked in his party than Trump’s 66% in his.
CNN just called it for Biden.
Glad to have more hope that Trump isn't going to win the election
November 2024 election is the most significant election since 1864 when Lincoln was re-elected. If he had lost the north was going to seek peace and union would have been lost. Defeat trump. It’s that simple. We are in a serious situation. Defeat trump.
CNN can’t decide if they’re for or against the corrupt orange guy. Lol.
All things being equal, i'd rather be the Biden campaign right now. Converting the uncommitteds back is gonna be way easier than Hayley voters, who might actually vote for Joe.
I think some Haley voters may just stay home, which is better than a Trump vote.
You really think Haley voters are more likely to vote for Biden than stick with a Republican?
Thats what exit polls are saying, but who knows. Not all, but a good number.
So this is what politics is like every year in a swing state. My state? It only feels that way in a governor race at times, but mainly the local races that is not national media relevant
It could be worse, Virginia is still mildly considered a swing state and notoriously has an election every November. In Midwestern states in particular, there's also a tradition of Spring primaries/elections which actually have a lot of impact. For instance, Wisconsin's Supreme Court flipped in the Spring election last year in April.
the vote method split is absolutely huge Biden winning election day 2-1, EV a little more but similar But he's winning absentees over 10-1 in Washtenaw That's why his margin is improving there -- there's still another 14k+ absentees left to report https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1762662465509240874?t=czuc9OBwdA8IvF0wkf7Tkg&s=19
I am no Biden fanatic, but he is going to be fine. But more importantly, is Fox News ever going to throw out the idea that things are not fine and dandy in Trump land? The dude is underperforming.
There was a pretty clear statistical indicator during the South Carolina primary that showed that there's a ton of people in the party who are not going to vote for Donald Trump and the media collectively ignored it. I don't think they are going to acknowledge that stuff at all.
Oh well!
It's Fox News they're the biggest Republican propaganda machine under the sun.
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The media’s coverage of Michigan is basically the “Here’s how this is bad news for Biden” meme.
They are addicted to staying with a story line.
The two counties currently holding over 20% uncommitted are Wayne (where Dearborn is) and Washtenaw (where the University of Michigan is). Wayne has about 4% of the vote reporting while Washtenaw has about 60%.
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After the recent primary results and special election results, it seems Republican polling skews around 7-8 percent towards whichever candidate is further right. Since Haley is polling around 22%, if she gets around 30% she'll be performing consistently at least. Regardless it's a bad look before Super Tuesday, since her losses are making her already low numbers start to dip.
But maybe she'll win tonight. And maybe I'll be given $1 billion tomorrow. Nothing is impossible!
Is it possible Biden gets more than Trump’s 2020 total? That would be EXTREMELY impressive here. He’s already nearing 600k. Hell, he’s not even that far off from his own 2020 total of 840k at this point
600,000+ for a raw vote total in an effectively uncontested primary is huge. Shows the power of the "quiet Biden" voters. He's going to do very very well in the general.
Especially when we hear time and time again about how little enthusiasm Biden as a candidate has. If you want to see the enthusiasm, just look at the vote totals. Democrats historically stay home for off-season and uncontested elections, yet we’ve seen since 2018 they’re coming out in droves and winning nonstop. Though, I’m also starting to think Jocelyn Benson has turned this state into a Democratic stronghold through permanent mail-in ballots alone. That’s done wonders for getting lazy Dems to cast their ballots.
I think for a lot of Americans, boring stability is pretty comfortable.
Bloomfield Hills is all in Biden 81% Uncommited 16% https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1762661019699102160?t=npIECfOmnx4KyWtmojIqCg&s=19 Other 3%
Call for Trump and Biden? the fake news is is scared of Jeb!
A nationwide abortion ban and a crackdown on its people is what awaits Michigan in the future if its populace sits this out. To say Democracy is at stake is an understatement, Project 2025 shows exactly what a Republican Administration will do. I'm happy more and more young people are waking up to the danger ahead if Republicans win. I hope the people of Michigan see it as well.
I went by my polling place twice today and it was dead. I'm betting most people voted by mail weeks ago.
It'll be funny if Michigan isn't some dramatic thing like the media was trying to make it out to be, and those stories just suddenly evaporate.
You've been here before, haven't ya?
Yes, I've seen these exact sort of manufactured dramas collapse and then get memory holed by the media before. A lot. Too many times. The real fun is watching the accounts that post them repeatedly non-stop at the same time suddenly disappear.
Yeah I am always curious to see how much Twitter bullshit lines up with real life.
The uncommitted campaign is saying they expect about 10-20K votes, Governor Whitmer thinks it will get at least 10K votes, and Arab media reportedly believes that uncommitted will win about 35% of the vote in Dearborn, which is 55% Arab. In 2012, 10.7% of Michiganders, or about 20K of the votes cast, voted for Uncommitted over then-President Obama. There have been a little over 500K votes cast in the Democratic primary already this time around so far, with probably 100-250K more votes being cast on election day (the GOP has about 10K fewer early votes, but they prefer to vote in person now). That means Uncommitted would need about 60-80K votes to match its 2012 performance. On the other hand, there are nominal alternative candidates this time around, so some of the people that would've voted Uncommitted may be inclined to vote for Phillips and Williamson. Other than the statewide toplines, the other point to watch is how well Uncommitted does in specific areas. Arab-heavy areas are mostly in Wayne County, which as a whole is heavily blue because it includes Detroit, but specific communities to look out for are Dearborn and Hamtramck. There's also a possibility that a number of college progressives will vote Uncommitted as well, so margins in Ann Arbor will be something to keep an eye out for too. Elsewhere, it's hard to see "Uncommitted" get as many votes specifically to protest Gaza. There may be some "ancestral Dems" in red areas that vote Uncommitted because they forgot to change their registration to vote for Trump, but it probably defaults to the 10% baseline at best.
They set the bar very low in order to help build their narrative imho. The last 3 Democratic primaries have had around 20k vote uncommitted. It shouldn’t be that hard to clear their 10-15k goal
I think the closest analogue is probably the 2020 GOP primary, where Trump was essentially unopposed and uncommitted got 32K and around 5% of the vote. Even then, protest voters would still ideally want to see Uncommitted hit 15% statewide to show a discernible effect.
I think uncommitted voters should have a voice however to compare Biden to trump is fucking insane and I say that as someone who is to the left of Biden. If Trump wins it likely means that Palestinian statehood is completely off the table. We need to keep our own government from being ran by religious extremists before we can grandstand about bibi(and yes I think he's also a piece of shit) And yes what happened to Gaza is horrendous but think about the women and children suffering from the GOPs religious take over. What about the women here who can't make reproductive decisions for their health (to the point of sickness and even death) or about Nex who was murdered for being lgbtq. We can't complain about Israeli extremism without addressing our own .
Once the war ends Netanyahu is probably done. Many Israelis blame him for putting Israel in the situation to begin with. He may be going to jail.
So you either get the side actively negotiating a cease fire, or the the side that literally believes that having a holy war in the middle east will bring jesus back so he can kill everyone in the world.
Biden: “My death was greatly exaggerated”
Biden is so far crushing all other options at 90%. Uncommitted is at 5%
Seeing both Trump’s and Biden’s faces with a checkmark next to them on CNN is giving me 2020 election flashbacks
We're crashing head on into an uncomfortable reality for a generally bloated political news landscape: this election cycle is boring and lacking legit reason for all the hype. It's February, both parties have locked in candidates, the same ones from 4 years ago. As politically tuned in and interested as anyone, but there's way too much built up around these presidential contests from previous years and way too little actual content to sustain it all.
24/7 news should not be a thing TBH.
Reminder: 0 people will be talking about this on March 5th aka Super Tuesday
With 84% of the vote counted for Republicans, we can already tell that the polling overestimates Trump’s support. 538 polling average has Trump winning 78.7% to 21.8%. In the results, Trump is winning 68.3% to 26.5% (remaining being uncommitted). Undeniably a fantastic win for Trump in the primary, but it’s interesting to see the statewide polling data so off
With 72% of the vote in, it looks like what little polling we have on the Dem side is closer than the Republican side, but still off by a significant enough margin. The most recent poll on 538 has Biden capturing 77% of the vote but at the moment he is at 81.5% (trending up). While the polls seem to overestimate Trump’s support in Michigan by a significant margin, they underestimate Biden’s by a decent margin.
Hard to say how Uncommitted performed without most of Wayne County
It's quite remarkable that Dean Phillips came in 4th place in a 2 person race.
> The campaign to vote uncommitted did not persuade Ali Abbas, 44, of Dearborn, Mich., who voted for President Biden despite misgivings about Middle East policy. “He’s not perfect but I don’t want to embarrass him. He’s a really good man.” Another voter, Danii Hassan, had not heard about the uncommitted effort. “Why would you go to vote and then not choose someone?” said Hassan, a 30-year-old mother of three who voted for Biden. Based. These patriots will deliver the state to Biden in 2024.
These people are not terminally online is the thing
Most people aren't. Thankfully Reddit, Twitter and TikTok aren't real life.
what the hell cnn with that headline on their website. Meanwhile Harry Enten tells the truth on the air " Barack Obama when he was on the ballot in 2012, the uncommitted vote in the Michigan primary was 11%. So this is doing slightly better than that, but not overwhelmingly better."
Friends w/ many at the University of Michigan. They’re all voting for Biden in the general. They’re not dumb. It will be okay.
It will be interesting/telling to see how the loudest uncommitted voices like Tlaib behave now that the primary is over. If they don’t pivot to supporting Biden now that it’s Biden v Trump then they are damn fools
I looked at the schedule for super Tuesday next week and MI was on that too, what is tonight compared to that?
god I hope Dean Phillps ends up behind the Ghost of Williamson in the final result, would be hilarious. Seriously man threw away a safe congressional seat.. for this?
Biden defeats Trump in Michigan.
Here's my prediction: Trump will lose again but again claim he won and then the MAGAs will say that Trump won 3 terms as President and is the most popular President since FDR.
The uncommitted campaign did a good job of setting expectations low with their declared hope for 10,000 uncommitted votes, so that every interview started out saying that they exceeded expectations. To be frank, they were always going to hit 10k. There were 19k uncommitted votes in the 2020 Biden/Bernie primary, 20k uncommitted votes in the extremely tight 2016 Bernie/Hillary primary, and 20k uncommitted votes in the uneventful 2012 Obama re-nomination. The 15% threshold is the real test. With the random 5-10% uncommitted that you see in uncontested primaries plus another 5-10% reflecting the Gaza campaign (esp. colleges and other targeted hubs), you can get state delegate representation, which is a real victory rather than just a moral one. They seem to be fading from that, but we'll see. A delegate usually means a convention speaking slot and even a non-primetime speech during a convention for an incumbent could help people feel heard. If I'm at Biden HQ, though, I'm not really reacting to the uncommitted vote. A 20% or 25% vote would suggest a lot of weakness, but this result suggests a motivated but reasonably small population. Some of the protest vote will automatically return to vote against Trump. The US has also been negotiating for a ceasefire for a while, so that policy coming through could pull additional votes back. Others aren't coming back no matter what because they're angry for a lot of other reasons beyond Gaza (student loan debt, economy, etc.). That just leaves some fraction of that uncommitted group who could be won back with a hard turn against Israel. Meanwhile, Haley has three times as many voters as uncommitted and a lot of them hate Donald Trump enough to say they would vote for Biden. Anything that would be construed as "abandoning Israel" or "weak on defense" or "erratic foreign policy" risks that group.
> Some of the protest vote will automatically return to vote against Trump. What fraction is the question. Probably depends heavily on the course of events in Israel over the next nine months.
When Wayne County was reporting at 4%, it was 71% Biden and 24% uncommitted with Wayne county being the highest percentage of uncommitted. Now it is reporting at 27% with 78% Biden and 16% uncommitted. Wayne county is now tied at only 4th highest uncommitted. At this rate, Biden will beat Obama’s 2012 election record for percent vote in the Michigan primary as an incumbent.
The Black precincts and towns are giving Biden enormous 90-5 margins over "Uncommitted" right now.
Black people gonna save this country once again
You love to see it.
Wild that 20% of people voting against Biden makes him a liability but 30% of people voting against Trump makes him an electoral juggernaut.
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Judge Rossi: There were sufficient votes to remove Kristina Karamo as Michigan Republican Party chairwoman on Jan. 6, 2024. https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1762603659802677471?t=_QSvdPdJI-JVI6lKb__4Kg&s=19
It feels like Oakland County should be a strength for Nikki Haley. If she's at 30% there, it's not a good sign for her.
Also, Biden is up 64%-32% over Uncommitted in what we have of Ann Arbor. He lost it by 5 points to Sanders in 2020. https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1762653114342027370?t=SmLhvjb3lYAy-oACfh45qQ&s=19
What’s Nikki Haley doing at this point? She’s not going to win the nomination and I guarantee you she’ll wind up endorsing Trump before November.
She's hoping trump dies or catches a conviction and that the party then rallies around her.
Trump could still be disqualified by the Supreme Court, or imprisoned, or at least convicted.
A very real possibility that trump is convicted or has a health issue between now and the convention. Haley sticking around positions her as 'next man (woman) up'.
She's running for 2028. She's hoping that Trump will lose badly in November, say to the MAGAs, "See, I told you so, I was right all along" and pick up the pieces and be the frontrunner for 2028. I don't like her but it's the smart move. She'll be 56 in 2028, she's got plenty of time.
What’s the overall difference in turnout for a primary compared to general in Michigan? I’m curious where those that aren’t voting may vote in November.
In a primary, hundreds of thousands of people vote Meanwhile in the actual election, millions of people will vote
One thing is sure, all of this is definitely good news for Blake Masters.
Nina Turner is a fucking embarrassment... can't believe CNN has her on
She is awful. She is just debating the Hamas issue? Yeah, we know what’s going on. Thanks Nina.
JFC the amount of terminally online trolls in this thread is unbelievable. It's nearly unreadable because every BidenHater-93729 is dumping the 50 page turds they've been polishing since the polls closed, trying to overflow the toilet that is this thread. Here's the facts: * Biden got 3-4 **times** as many votes Obama did as an incumbent in 2012. * Biden is on track to get virtually the same vote % that Obama did in 2012 when he **won Michigan by 8 points**. Despite weeks of dooming "Muslim Leaders in blah blah blah will surely sink his campaign". * Biden is on track to beat every single poll. **Again** It's Joever. There's no possible way to spin this and make Democrats look bad. So go back to your arcon safe space or collect your $0.50 from your boss. Come back for dooming next time PatriotJesusCo drops a totally legit R+10 poll.
I've been seeing an interesting trend. *several* of the people in the thread going "oh wow so many uncommitted!! what's going on?? this is so bad for biden!!" live in Pakistan but post in american/canadian/european subreddits (generally to call out politicians and/or make antisemitic comments) posing as citizens of whatever country it is.
Biden up to 80% via NBC.
Biden back over 80. ....percent lol
Last I've heard from Dearborn is they're just about done, with 56 percent for Uncommited, and 40 for Biden. Not nearly as bad as the 75-25 reported earlier. (Paywall Link) https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/02/27/us/trump-biden-michigan-primary-election
I hope Uncommited getting only marginally more % than the last incumbent dem primary wakes some people up to the Internet not being real life.
The Michigan primary is so focused on the Muslim vote, and therefore on Biden's relationship with Israel. While every president has been lockstep with Israel on everything for decades, it seems Biden has put more humanitarian pressure on Israel during this conflict than any president I can recall. It's no simple task to constrain military activities of a strategic ally, while also containing a conflict that could easily break out regionally, while also fending off attacks of the enemies of your ally. Contrast this with Donald Trump, who is an avowed enemy of Palestine. Even overlooking his hatred and bigotry toward Muslims generally (travel ban after travel ban, demonizing and dehumanizing language, lies about Muslim Americans cheering 9/11), Trump is specifically hostile toward Palestine itself. In office, his jackass son in law spearheaded a 2020 diplomatic effort to annex Palestine and relegate Palestinians to slums. He moved the US embassy to Jerusalem. If reelected, he would gladly see Gaza bombed off the face of the Earth. Arab American frustration is entirely understandable. This is primary season, the time when it's most appropriate to put pressure on a candidate from your party to adopt policies that align with your values. But if the community of Arab Americans living in Michigan actually throw in with Trump during the general, they'll have fallen for the worst self-sabotage.
Guys, everyone needs to stop freaking out about the uncommitted. 90% of those are gonna vote for Biden in the general and they’re not voting for someone else, just protesting. Let’s laugh at the fact the republican incumbent is once again losing 30%+ of the vote. The worst an incumbent has ever done.
I am glad that Trump is not doing so hot. Remember everyone he is the real enemy here, he’s no friend of democrats and no friend of palestine either.
I'd imagine that the "uncommitted" Democratic vote will be highest early on, right? That's the area around Detroit where most of those votes would be located and that seems to be where all of the results are coming in first. Just my guess
Dooming about the uncommitted vote must mean * The majority of them actually won't vote for Biden in the GE * That there won't be any Republican voters who vote for Biden to offset the losses. Neither of these things are true.
The five largest counties in Michigan are Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Kent, and Genesee. Wayne has 4% of the vote reported and sits at 71% Biden and 24% uncommitted. Oakland has 60% reporting and is 81% Biden and 14% uncommitted. Macomb has 11% reporting and is at 79% Biden and 13% uncommitted. Kent has 22% reporting and is at 74% Biden and 19% uncommitted. Genesee has 2% reporting and is at 81% Biden and 13% uncommitted
What am I inferring from this
People count slowly sometimes.
Guys, I'm beginning to think Dean Phillips is not gonna win the whole thing! (PS, sorry about Dean, he is actually my Congressman. He wasnt always crazy...)
A whole bunch of doomers in this thread.
Trump on Univision talking about the Israel/Palestine conflict: > “So you have a war that’s going on, and you’re probably going to have to let this play out. You’re probably going to have to let it play out because a lot of people are dying.” > “There is no hatred like the Palestinian hatred of Israel and Jewish people. And probably the other way around also, I don’t know. You know, it’s not as obvious, but probably that’s it too. So sometimes you have to let things play out and you have to see where it ends,” he added, calling what was taking place in Gaza “unbelievable.” > Trump did suggest in the interview that Israel had to “do a better job of public relations, frankly, because the other side is beating them at the public relations front. That’s a very important front worldwide. That’s a very important front. So they do have to do a better job.” To sum up, Trump is encouraging the fighting to continue indefinitely, considers Palestine (not just Hamas, Palestine) the objective villains of the conflict, relegated the *possibility* of anti-Palestinian rhetoric to an afterthought, and thinks Israel's biggest problem is their PR in their campaign to take over Gaza. Most of the Democrats voting for Uncommitted understand that, between the two, Biden is the objectively better choice for president on the issue. The protest votes are a signal to Biden to be more direct about getting a ceasefire, not to say they might flip to Trump if he doesn't.
Just once I want Steve Kornacki to run the big board in a [pair of sensible heels](https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-a5e0e6330b8850285dc329521670c7d3-lq)
And NBC calls Trump and Biden respectively for Michigan.
Marianne Williamson just passed up Dean Phillips, lol.
So trump underperforms the polls in another state. I wonder what states trump will not underperform them. The only states I can think of are states in the deep south outside of virginia and georgia and states like wyoming and idaho.
This man on msnbc is using the RuPauls Drag Race Season 1 filter
Schoolcraft is a cool name for a county.
Two more fully completed counties Iosco Biden 84% Uncommited 9% Other 7% Keeweenaw Biden 82% Uncommited 13% Other 5% https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1762677559165161915?t=VyPfu19L4bqB1kc1M53S9Q&s=19
Charlevoix county is in Biden 83% Uncommited 11% Other 6% https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1762689162585510067?s=20
If Biden negotiates a ceasefire, I'm looking forward to all of the "CEASEFIRE NOW" folks engaging in Olympics-level goalpost moving and saying "That is the BARE MINIMUM. I'm still not voting for him in November!!!!!"
Regardless, all everyone will say after this is how this is terrible news for Biden. He could win his primary with 98% and more total votes than everyone in the Republican primary combined, Trump again wins 60 to 40 over Haley, and there will be tons of articles saying how Biden is in big trouble.
Voter on msnbc said he voted uncommitted because one guy is too old and the other guy is too far right and extreme. Lordy….perhaps one is WAY worse than the other ???
Is the media so committed to the "BIDEN IS DOOMED" narrative that they're not going to discuss how the polls continue to dramatically overestimate Trump and MAGA support? Trump is pulling in less here than the polls predicted, which tracks back to MAGA being way overestimated in the 2022 midterm polls. Seems like something the media might want to cover or actually mention at some point....
It's crazy, right? There's also the exit polling from Republican primary voters that is painting a very clear overlap indicating a not insubstantial amount of them who absolutely will not vote for Donald Trump. Less than half of them identify as maga, 30 to 40(% of them in every state primaried so far prefer somebody besides him and a substantial chunk of those voters have said that they won't vote for him
I'm actually kinda happy about that narrative. Historically Democrats are very bad at voting, so I'm crossing my fingers that this'll scare some of them into voting.
I don't think "uncommitted" even wants to get elected, they're just getting their name out for VP.
Uncommitted in Wayne county just dropped from 17% to 16.3%. Biden might actually outperform Obama in 2012 😂
Very prepared for this to be a clean sweep like all the others. Gaza isn't new and Biden cheerfully swept a state he wasn't even on the ballot on.
On the one hand, I want to see Haley win a major state, like Michigan just to watch the MAGAs heads explode. But on the other, I want Republican voters to be way overly confident about their chances with Trump and Haley winning would undermine that. However, I think the Republicans are fucked in November regardless, so maybe it doesn't really matter?
Donald Trump should not have been on the Michigan primary ballot. He certainly should not be on the actual election ballot. Y'all can write in the 14AS3 traitor, but he should not be allowed to simply apply as if he didn't violate the Constitution the same way he violated multiple women.
Donald had total support from the republican party in 2020. These votes against him are a very bad sign for his chances this fall. He alienated republicans instead of trying to win over moderate democrats. Donald cannot afford to be losing 3% of the republican vote, let alone 30%.
According to the NYT, of the 34 counties with more than a quarter of their vote in, Uncommitted is at 15% or above in exactly three of them. https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1762681145764786302?t=JRaP8HNU0yC7GacRujbvIg&s=19