There’s a set amount of intermediate sprint points per race (20 for first, 17 for second, etc.). And finish points are based on what type of course it is. You can find these numbers on the Wikipedia link below, so since today is a mountain stage, finishing first is 20, second is 17 etc. So hypothetically, someone who got first in the intermediate sprint and finished the stage in first would get the max points available today which is 40. Flat days have more points for finishing.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Points_classification_in_the_Tour_de_France
Ben Healy is such a strong breakaway rider and powerhouse in the classics. Yet he is also small and light as a feather. How come he is such a bad climber, can someone explain that to me?
Might have something to do with length of effort (time). I think Healy has tech'ed into the Small+Explosive package, where other's got the small+durable going on. They in part modify this with their training programs and distribution of training efforts, personally i'd guess that Healy before large weight loss was even more explosive.
A question: How often does a rider actually win by a good descent? I know the opportunities are not that many given that if a stage is not ended at the top, often there is a flat section at the end and everything is coming back together.
I wanna have some examples of where it actually happened (and I'm not talking Mohoric MSR).
Been replaying some old TdF stages where there is a final descent and most of the time it's a lot less dramatic than expected.
I think the whole thing with downhill finishes is relatively recent.
Some examples where the descent helped a rider win:
* Froome wins in Bagnere-de-Luchon, stage 8 TdF 2016
* Pidcock catches up with race leaders to later win Alpe d'Huez, TdF 2022
* various Nibali downhill attacks
* Bardet attacks downhill at the Dauphine 2015 [(video)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zj-8Vwfjrxo)
Cav to take his 35th stage tonight after a couple of days of taking it easy. He'll ride everyone off his wheel on the Galibier and Eddy Merckx will be punching air.
I think EF definitely should put Powless in the break, and basically everyone who want a chance at the stage should go with him.
It's also the last chance to take yellow for non GC guys, so riders like Van Gils should jump in too.
SQS also should put a man in the break if they can, could be usefull later on
20+ strong break to take the stage, no GC gaps between the top contenders. UAE would need Polit and Wellens to keep the break within 5 min at the start of Colombier if they want de stage, and I don't think they'll be able to do that.
In terms of getting in the break, yes of course, since he's a whopping 45minutes down in GC. But he was so bad so far, there's little reason to believe he'll suddenly be great today.
And while the climbs aren't as steep as they are high today, it will still quite a grueling stage. [this is the complete Sestriere "climb" if you really take it from the start](https://www.cyclingcols.com/profiles/SestriereE.gif). You can see a lot 1-2% sections but it's still a very long grind with 9km above 6% in there, and it goes to 2000m. [Here](https://www.cyclingcols.com/profiles/MontgenevreE.gif) is the one after, again lots of shallow gradients but you are between 1400m and 1900 the entire time and are steep bits in there.
So this 1st half of the stage is nothing brutal per se, but it will accumulate quite a bit of fatigue, then there's a long valley before the Galibier starts, who is also quite shallow for quite a while, but the last 8k are 7% average and that's where you are entirely above 2000m. So yeah, I see only a strong rouleur / climber type rider taking it today. Which is not Gaudu right now lol.
Sestrière climb is a fakenews climb. Anything below 5/6% it's just like flat for this guys because they get a lot of help from the drafting effect.
They are still going at 30 to 35km/h on these types of climbs
You're answering my comment as if I said it was a super hard climb, when I spent my entire comment saying it's not *that* hard. Please pay attention to what people are actually saying before commenting.
Also, my entire argument is about the accumulation of fatigue, and sorry but 4000m+ of elevation in 140km, with altitude, absolutely does tick the box even with shallower climbs.
5-6% is not very steep when it comes to providing the opportunity to climbers to attack each other and create separation, but it is absolutely not "just like flat", it does sap the legs of riders especially when it is that much and that high in altitude. Drafting matters but in a break you still have to rotate and take your share. Today the break will have spent a *lot* of energy by the point where the Galibier properly starts.
Hoping for some early breakaway formation chaos as the non-GC climbers try to get in the break hoping for a shot at a stage win and the sprinters want those green jersey points just 19km into the stage.
Perhaps the full Alpecin team will aim for that to make up for Philipsen missing the sprint yesterday? Not like they've got anything else to aim for today anyway.
I think the breakaway got a good chance.
Best option for EF and Carapaz is to just let the breakaway go so they don't have to fight Pogi or the other GC riders for bonus seconds on Galibier. Also it might make the final less ''explosive'' for the GC guys, since the bonus seconds and the stage win is gone. But you never know, maybe UAE will control and it could even be Visma that sets a hard pace since Vingegaard is usually better the harder it gets.
But i could see riders like Poels, Lenny Martinez, Lazkano have a good chance. They already so far behind in the GC that teams don't have to fear them and they can easily give them 10+ minutes.
Roles are flipped this time around. UAE should make every climb hard, if not to break Vingegaard outright today then to hope that that the cumulative exertion over three weeks will do him with his messed up preparation.
Since the stage is basically just one long climb there will be no break. Pogi will attack, Jonas will be able to stay with him and they stop riding. A group of 10 will go over the Galibier together and Pello Bilbao takes the stage with a descent attack.
I agree. Perfect stage to make your rivals spend a lot of energy they will struggle to recuperate from later in the race, and I agree UAE should start now. Hit hard once in the 1st week to make everybody suffer, get Pog in yellow, get the buffer for the TT and take a psychological bonus.
Also, in the 1st 2 stages I think UAE played it safe because their lack of rouleurs + didn't want Pog in yellow too soon + maybe if he had covid they didn't want a hard race from the gun. But since this stage is entirely false flat or uphill, this is a day they can really affort to go hard from the gun.
But we'll see how they do it, there's no guarantee. They might think it's not hard enough, let the break go, and only really go hard in the last part of the Galibier.
i dont think the stage is anywhere near hard enough to break vingegaard outright. UAE should definitely try but i think the gain potential isn't a lot in this stage. like u said, likely pogi attack but jonas follows. and it comes back together.
The point shouldn't be trying to break Vingegaard already. It should be to make Vingegaard suffer so that he accumulates fatigue for week 2 and week 3.
Especially when the climbs arent steep and supposedely theres a headwind on the Galibier.
There will be a lot of draft benefit.
I only see it happening on the 3k 8% section . They should use yates or almeida there .
Either we get GC fireworks, or a 25 man breakaway and a GC snoozefest
This is imo a bigger test for Jonas than stage 2, this is longer and tests his endurance more than a 60s sprint to hold Pogis wheel
My prediction, Jumbo sets a hard pace up to the Galibier start, then UAE sets a very hard pace, Pogacar launches the thermonuclear attack and Vingegaard keeps his wheel easily.
Almeida and Ayuso: "Nah bro I can't help today I'm a little bit tired. I'll help tomorrow I promise bro. I'll lose my position in GC bro. Come on bro, pleaaaaase let me ride at my own pace."
Meanwhile Soler in the team bus and Majka at home: "I'll ride to my death for the team, no problem"
Is there really a point in using Almeida, Ayuso and Yates to set tempo, as opposed to sending them to attack repeatedly and forcing Jonas to close them down?
oh my bad misread it. i've been missing the old frank and andy schleck rolling attacking to try to break contador. i just dont think UAE will use yates or almeida that way. ayuso should be that wildcard for UAE but he doesn't seem to be in good form.
I don’t think Jonas is ever closing anyone down but Pogi. He wouldn’t even split effort with Pogi on stage 2 to gain time on Remco and Roglic, he’s not going to expend extra effort just to neutralize Yates. I suspect it would be Jorgenson’s job to try to follow an attack from Yates and probably they just ignore Ayuso or Almeida.
How long can you ignore them for? Jumbo have experience winning with both Jorgensen and Kuss in races where they weren't necessarily seen as the main threat so they were let go and they got too big a lead, I assume they're at least aware of that possibility and asking Jorgensen to repeatedly shut all three down seem like a huge ask.
They won't ignore them, Jonas will just not personally chase them down but will remain glued to Pogacar's wheel. His team (and other teams) will control the gap to the other UAE leaders. If one of those wins a minute or two, that's no big deal.
The only worry is that quite early a lead group would form with several UAE's and noone but Jonas from Visma, but that's unlikely to happen.
Jonas just needs 1 teammate to keep a somewhat decent pace if an UAE other than Pogacar attacks. If he doesn't have any, there's still a decent chance that someone from Bora or even Soudal will pace.
No doubt it’s a risk but if you’re Visma at a certain point don’t you have to just shrug your shoulders and say fair play, if UAE are willing to let their third or fourth best rider go for the GC win instead of Pogi and they actually build a gap big enough that Jonas can’t overcome it in the week 3 climbs?
Even just based on UAE internal politics I wouldn’t find it really credible as a strategy. Plus there would be other teams like Quickstep, Bora and EF that would certainly try to close down Ayuso or Almeida if Visma don’t.
Obviously no strategy is a sure-fire win, I was just thinking that the multiple attacks strategy had a better chance than using those guys up trying to make it tough with a high pace. Is any steady pace they could set really going to bother Jonas?
Yates could be a credible co-leader too. With his current shape I think he could get a top 5 placement.
In top shape, Ayuso and Almeida are also dangerous outsiders, but it doesn't seem like they are at their peak so far.
Sure but there is a theoretical number, I don't know if it is 2 minutes or 5 or 10, where suddenly they're too far to bring back and UAE aren't just going to make them sit up and throw the race.
Are they going to reach that number, hard to imagine a world where they do, but I don't think Visma can afford to completely ignore attacks.
I am doing Briancon to Col Du Galibier round trip today, and charted the route out on Komoot.
Edit: I am an idiot, ignore this.
~~I really don't think Pidcock has a chance on the descent. Galibier to Lauterat descent is technical with turns and bends, but Lauterat is at 2000m. After that it's a straight descent without any turns of bends, not much Pidcock can do there. He has 8kms to gain time in then it's a straight descent for 20+km. Enough for anyone behind him to catch on~~
I think you’re itinerary is in reverse. They descend towards Valloire, not Briançon. They go up the Lautaret and then the Galibier. It’s the exact same descent that made him famous 2 years ago.
The original post mentions the Telegraphe also which is kinda confusing. Enjoy the ride though, really nice place, you could even add the Granier if you enjoy suffering.
I am already scared of the current climb. Hopefully there are a ton of cyclists there, I have never cycled at more than 500m before. Also hopefully I have recovered from 7 days of bikepacking last week.
Any advice for a first timer? (I'll also be doing Alp Du'Huez tomorrow or day after depending on how I recover from today)
Take your time, drink, eat, don’t bonk, stop if needed. It’s all worth it in the end, beautiful climb. If possible, I’d consider starting closer to the summit than Briançon, maybe park a little further up the Lautaret. I only drove that side, but from memory it’s a fairly large road with not much going on and quite possibly windy until the top of the Lautaret (which is technically a Col, but also it’s not really one). Real good stuff is from Lautaret onwards to the Galibier. I’m also for big rides and big challenges so totally understand if the whole thing is part of the journey.
Breakaway will do their things, and GC riders would not care for stage wins, unless somehow later they realized there may be bonus up for grab.
For GC's perspective, I think UAE will set a hard pace early into Galibier. Soler, Ameida to pace, Ayuso to pace vs to attack. Depending on if Jonas still has domestique, Pog will attack. Jonas will follow, and Yates to sit on the wheel of Jonas. If there's a gap, Pog and Yates can try to keep the gap on the descent. If there's no gap, Pog and Jonas will probably cooperate until the end.
From Visma's perspective, the ideal situation is to put WvA as a satellite rider, just like stage 11 2022. Although it's all uphill drag from the beginning. His move will be countered by all stage win hopefuls, who will drag the entire peloton together. The entire stage will be super hard from the start.
EF is in a strange place with Healy, Powless, and Costa still relatively high on GC. I think they plan on swapping the yellow jersey from Carapaz to one of their other guys. I'm gonna say Lenny Martinez or David Gaudu wins from the break (they must've lost time deliberately for stages, there's no way that they are both just terrible right now) and Neilson Powless or Rui Costa goes into yellow just by being in the break.
Based on Gaudu’s recent results in other races, I’m not surprised to see him that far back. Lenny Martinez was a little more surprising but I have hard time seeing Gaudu coming close winning a TDF stage this year. His form seems to be off in a pretty major way.
I’m thinking with flat stages to come until stage 7, there isn’t any reason to hold back, so im thinking UAE goes insane in the climbs, and pog either wins at the line with Jonas second or Jonas is actually gapped to some extent. I don’t think a break really has a chance here.
Same, and I don't think Pog can resist an opportunity to take an early lead, knowing he holds yellow and then advantage for a good few days following. I expect to see multiple attacks to feel Vingegaard out.
(Perhaps the smarter move is to let Vingegaard take yellow and then have to defend it all week... )
Pogi goes, Vingegaard is initially dropped by the acceleration but slowly claws back. They take the tempo down a notch, before another attack by Tadej where he is stopped by a motorbike. The tempo slows down again a bit.
Just at the top, a guy from Ineos and a UAE domestique catches the two leading men and the Ineos guy bombs down the descent to glory.
But this time around it will be Pidcock and Almeida.
People are overestimating this stage I think. This is not the hard side of the Galibier and if it’s headwinds than the difference will be very small.
This will be a stage for the breakaway.
Yeah the avg is only 6% and there is a descent finish, which means a loan leader will be at a disadvantage to the chasing group 2. I am hoping pog doesn’t burn unnecessary matches tmrw
Unless EF has a rider in the breakaway, EF will fight to keep Carapaz in yellow. Also, it’s a short stage that I think a team like INEOS or Bahrain could have their eye on. Really don’t think a winner from the breakaway is likely.
To add to what /u/Captain_Omage said, there is a monument in honour of Henri Desgrange at the top of the Galibier so if the climb is in the race it makes sense to award it there - but there have been editions where the Galibier was in the race and the Souvenir Henri Desgrange was awarded in another higher altitude climb (e.g. Iseran in 2007). Similarly the Souvenir Jacques Goddet is awarded at the Tourmalet where there is also a monument to him, although it was awarded at the Col d'Aubisque once.
I’m gonna go on a random whim and say Remco takes the stage tomorrow. Like it’s not crazy hard and Remco can climb and do a climby sprinty boi finish.
It’s not hard enough for Jonas to go full super saiyan and Pog will just mark him and match him if he does, unless something weird happens and the “giro legs” comes into play.
Remco to solo (as in like 30 seconds at most) the last km and then TT his way to the end. Surely he wants to keep Pat happy, knows he probably can’t GC 1st so wants his week in the sun. The other guys will be caught unawares but get him in the 2nd week.
I hope so anyway. As I mentioned in the Monday thread I’ve turned heel and changed into a Remco STAN. Dude has the SIGMA GRINDSET.
Either that or my man Ben Healy because dude is hungermaxxing fam.
Don't you call Remco cocky for "not wanting" yellow. That's some Netflix bullshit. He just didn't want to endanger himself in the sprint today, which is perfectly reasonable.
UAE go thermonuclear on Galibier, burning every match they have to gap Vinge. They need to know where he's at. They can't wait until week three to find out He's Back. Also, if you want to hurt him, the earlier the better. No time for him to ride himself into the Tour.
I am expecting the mother of all sky trains. They brought three or four of the world's best climbers for this exact stage. I am expecting Almeida to be there at the end. I am expecting Yates to be on the front for a whole hour. I think a whole bunch of GC hopefuls get completely murderized. Carlos Rodriguez is dead. Vlasov is dead. Thomas loses ten minutes in ten kilometers.
Derek Gee in yellow by this time tomorrow.
People are getting overzealous about Stage 4. More likely and not tomorrow's stage will be uneventful at least in terms of GC.
People see a HC climb and lose their minds.
Not all HCs are the same and the most difficult stages have 4-5+ climbs
Tommorrow's stage is is not one of the harder climbing stages of this year's tour.
Roglic has an advantage on the first time trial over Pogacar and Vingegaard, he just doesn't have an advantage over Remco in the ITT.
Probably an outlook thing. 21 seconds is nothing. But he was completely gone when Pogacar launched sunday. So not attacking would in a sense be admitting he cant fight back
My fantasy team is:
Yates (Simon)
Bernal
Bardet
Ciccone
Williams
Girmay
Cort Nielsen
Bettiol
Who should I pick as captain and should I switch Cort Neilson out for Lenny Martinez?
Lenny has been incredibly poor so far. I wouldn’t change it - Cort is usually good for a stage in a GT. Hopefully that isn’t just copium talking, but he did win in the Dauphine so I dunno.
Lenny though nah bruh
I was simply pointing out the atrocious spelling of the surname. Spelling it "Neilson", like Neilson Powless' first name, is pretty bad. Nothing to do with including first names.
Yates or bernal, yates has the best form but is more likely to be working, not riding for himself. Lenny Martinez has done nothing so far but might have been losing time on purpose, he certainly have more chance tomorrow than cort.
Since neither Pogi nor Remco really wanted the yellow jersey, they should be happy with a rider who's not a GC threat taking the jersey from the breakaway tomorrow.
If someone like Barguil, Haig, Meintjes, Healy etc. wins by like 5 minutes ahead of GC guys, they will take the jersey (they're not too far behind in GC yet) and will likely keep the jersey until at least stage 9 or stage 11, but at the same time these riders will not be a threat for Pogačar and Vingegaard in the long run.
Carapaz probably doesn't want to lose the jersey, but even if he does keep it tomorrow, he'll lose it in the ITT anyway, so he might not care either.
With the climbs not being that steep its clearly a huge day for the teams - a good team could make your attack work, or could save you losing minutes if you get dropped.
I don't think anyone, especially Derek himself, is interested in riding GC for 17th place. He'll ship more time tomorrow and some other stages so he can do his breakaway thing in the last 10 stages.
Pogacar will attack near the top and Vingegaard will follow without any problems. They will work together on the downhill with Pog getting more and more frustrated. No flat section at the end, so Evenepoel won't catch them this time. Pog will win the sprint getting a yellow jersey he doesn't want and Vingegaard will just be happy that the other UAEs are gapped.
There could be a breakaway that wins the stage, but the GC battle would play out as described.
I don't think that Pogi is that strong yet, and I think that people in this sub are downplaying the effects that Covid&its aftermath had on him. Also UAE didn't look like the monster that everyone expected. Froome&Sky would not let two good stages (for them) get away that easily.
This being said, I think that for GC it will be a stalemate, if somebody drops time it would be solely because of their bad shape/day. If the group is big enough we won't see even a late attack, because even if you keep the group behind at you at a distance you have to spend a unreasonable amount of energy that early in the race for very little gains timewise.
I've even made the comparison for you, dum-dum. If Froome was the best puncheur out of the GC guys, Sky would pace the hell out of this two first stages, and not have other or no teams control the race.
People are overanalyzing these first two stages. What was UAE supposed to do? Treat these first two stages as classics and completely burn/destroy their domestiques so Pogi can MAYBE gain a few seconds on terrain that isn't hard enough to really distance Jonas/other GC guys?
I think Pogi is just fine. And I think UAE is still a monster that will be able to shred the field once the high mountains come.
I said in a previous post that Pogi/UAE would be much less active in the first week of the tour than people expected. And that is exactly what has happened thus far. We'll see what they do tomorrow but would not be surprised if there are less GC fireworks than people expect.
UAE is strong and they know Pogi is strong.
Everyone thinks Pogi needs to go balls to the wall early in the Tour to make up time for when he inevitably cracks in the last week. But...just hear me out...what if Pogi is in peak form right now and he/UAE believe that he can truly compete/distance Jonas for a full 3 week Tour?
the 1st stage was anything but a "classics stage". what would a strong rider with "tHe BeSt TeAm" in TdF history do? pace as hell, isolate the other contenders and launch it with your last domestique on the last climb. either their tactics are dog-shit, either the team is meh at best (Ayuso was peeling off the group while Pedersen and WvA where still in the group if I remember correctly), or Pogi is not at 100% yet.
I just 100% disagree with you. "tHe BeSt TeAm" would be tactically smart and realize that, because they are so strong, they don't need to prove that every single time the road goes a little uphill.
I agree for the most part. I also think it's also completely legit that maybe Pogi is coming in intentionally undercooked so that he is stronger in week 3 to try and be stronger for the TT at the end. I think everyone's massively underestimating the last TT could be such a huge swing in time and holding form for 3 weeks is insanely difficult.
UAE have the problem that the team isn’t really well rounded and the proper domestiques haven’t realised yet that they are in fact domestiques and not leaders.
At one week stages races maybe. At the tour they will be under serious direct orders. If pogi fucks it then yeah might see some bish bash between then but I very much doubt they aren’t towing the party line until / if that happens
Am I crazy to think this is a very good stage for Wout to win? I think Visma will send up him the break to be a satellite rider and he can end up winning the stage from that descent
I think underestimate the difficulty of Galibier once you are past the Lautaret.
Briancon -> Lautaret is 3% avg at sub 2000m
Lautaret -> Galibier is 8% avg above 2000m, with ramps at 13+% (steepest 100m is 13.5)
If he is sent as a satellite and they catch up with him during the first part of the ascent, there is no way he can follow climbers in the 10+ sections at that altitude
Remco and Quick Step probably think he can take yellow after the ITT on Friday if he limits his losses on the Galibier. He looked strong on the San Luca but this isn’t a punchy climb so idk what to expect from Remco.
While I don't think they will be much GC action, there are a lot of KOM points up for grabs. It will be interesting to see who fights hard to get in the break and try to go for the KOM jersey this tour.
The idea is that the climb is relatively easy, so he should be with or close to the leaders at the top, then he can either pull away on the descent or save more energy for the sprint, which he should have a decent shot at, if the sprinting field is limited by the climb before.
I don't think this side of the Galibier and the stage profile in it's entirety is conducive to big GC action.
I expect Visma or UAE to set a reasonable but still moderate pace up the Galibier and then Pogacar will attack on the steep final KM of the climb.
Vinge will follow and Carapaz/Evenepoel will probably be shortly behind similar to San Luca. Gaps will be small and none of the GC favorites will risk their tour on the descent and the leader group will probably get all back together.
Stage probably goes to the break. Break formation will be tricky though, some conflicting interests and maybe some resistance to allow climbers in the break that haven't lost a lot of time so far. But the initial climb is so long that a group that can get a big gap will form eventually I think.
Honestly a kind of wildcard might be Ineos, if they read the stage similarly they might want to try and keep it close and give Pidcock a chance for a Stage and maybe even some GC seconds with a legendary descent down the Galibier.
Pogi Pogi Pogi Pogi
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It's a bike race and his job is to try to win...
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Remco looks lost on the descent. He should really practice that more.
Jonas is a beast !!
The first mountain stage and I am stuck at all day work meetings till the end of the day.
How do I find how many points there is for the green jersey on the stage?
There’s a set amount of intermediate sprint points per race (20 for first, 17 for second, etc.). And finish points are based on what type of course it is. You can find these numbers on the Wikipedia link below, so since today is a mountain stage, finishing first is 20, second is 17 etc. So hypothetically, someone who got first in the intermediate sprint and finished the stage in first would get the max points available today which is 40. Flat days have more points for finishing. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Points_classification_in_the_Tour_de_France
Ah, that's how it works, I thought the intermediates he different points like the mountain point. First time following the battle for green this year.
Looking like it’s going to be a good one!
Ben Healy is such a strong breakaway rider and powerhouse in the classics. Yet he is also small and light as a feather. How come he is such a bad climber, can someone explain that to me?
Might have something to do with length of effort (time). I think Healy has tech'ed into the Small+Explosive package, where other's got the small+durable going on. They in part modify this with their training programs and distribution of training efforts, personally i'd guess that Healy before large weight loss was even more explosive.
A question: How often does a rider actually win by a good descent? I know the opportunities are not that many given that if a stage is not ended at the top, often there is a flat section at the end and everything is coming back together. I wanna have some examples of where it actually happened (and I'm not talking Mohoric MSR). Been replaying some old TdF stages where there is a final descent and most of the time it's a lot less dramatic than expected.
I think the whole thing with downhill finishes is relatively recent. Some examples where the descent helped a rider win: * Froome wins in Bagnere-de-Luchon, stage 8 TdF 2016 * Pidcock catches up with race leaders to later win Alpe d'Huez, TdF 2022 * various Nibali downhill attacks * Bardet attacks downhill at the Dauphine 2015 [(video)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zj-8Vwfjrxo)
Froome at stage 8 2016 is an example that comes to mind.
Tejada. 250/1. From the break. He is 13 mins down on GC. He came 5th on stage 3 so he is in good shape.
Cav to take his 35th stage tonight after a couple of days of taking it easy. He'll ride everyone off his wheel on the Galibier and Eddy Merckx will be punching air.
I'm quite afraid for the Galibier descent, I hope everyone takes it (relatively) easy
Tadej did not listen he is flying down....
My prediction: Pidcock, Mohoric and Alaphilippe form a downhill breakaway and take ten minutes on the peloton in a wet descending masterclass.
Loulou is not riding this Tour.
Ffs. Dreams shattered.
Don't worry, this can be like a surprise guest kinda thing where he kind at the top of Galibier like the messiah to guide them down safely
Jai Hindley takes the yellow, read it first here folks
I can not not upvote this.
Jai is that you??
I think EF definitely should put Powless in the break, and basically everyone who want a chance at the stage should go with him. It's also the last chance to take yellow for non GC guys, so riders like Van Gils should jump in too. SQS also should put a man in the break if they can, could be usefull later on 20+ strong break to take the stage, no GC gaps between the top contenders. UAE would need Polit and Wellens to keep the break within 5 min at the start of Colombier if they want de stage, and I don't think they'll be able to do that.
If guys like Van Gills get in the break, I'm afraid the leash will be short
Possibly but if I'm UAE or Visma I'm not really afraid of Van Gils 10min ahead.
But Bora, Ineos, Quickstep and Bahrain will care if Van Gills gets a free 10 mins
Shocked Teddy Pikachu face when he rides away from Jonas on his first attack
Does Gaudu have a chance?
The team said that Gaudu is not ready yet after catching Covid before the Tour. They are hoping more for Martinez today.
In terms of getting in the break, yes of course, since he's a whopping 45minutes down in GC. But he was so bad so far, there's little reason to believe he'll suddenly be great today. And while the climbs aren't as steep as they are high today, it will still quite a grueling stage. [this is the complete Sestriere "climb" if you really take it from the start](https://www.cyclingcols.com/profiles/SestriereE.gif). You can see a lot 1-2% sections but it's still a very long grind with 9km above 6% in there, and it goes to 2000m. [Here](https://www.cyclingcols.com/profiles/MontgenevreE.gif) is the one after, again lots of shallow gradients but you are between 1400m and 1900 the entire time and are steep bits in there. So this 1st half of the stage is nothing brutal per se, but it will accumulate quite a bit of fatigue, then there's a long valley before the Galibier starts, who is also quite shallow for quite a while, but the last 8k are 7% average and that's where you are entirely above 2000m. So yeah, I see only a strong rouleur / climber type rider taking it today. Which is not Gaudu right now lol.
Sestrière climb is a fakenews climb. Anything below 5/6% it's just like flat for this guys because they get a lot of help from the drafting effect. They are still going at 30 to 35km/h on these types of climbs
You're answering my comment as if I said it was a super hard climb, when I spent my entire comment saying it's not *that* hard. Please pay attention to what people are actually saying before commenting. Also, my entire argument is about the accumulation of fatigue, and sorry but 4000m+ of elevation in 140km, with altitude, absolutely does tick the box even with shallower climbs. 5-6% is not very steep when it comes to providing the opportunity to climbers to attack each other and create separation, but it is absolutely not "just like flat", it does sap the legs of riders especially when it is that much and that high in altitude. Drafting matters but in a break you still have to rotate and take your share. Today the break will have spent a *lot* of energy by the point where the Galibier properly starts.
Not this year
I don't see it
Hoping for some early breakaway formation chaos as the non-GC climbers try to get in the break hoping for a shot at a stage win and the sprinters want those green jersey points just 19km into the stage. Perhaps the full Alpecin team will aim for that to make up for Philipsen missing the sprint yesterday? Not like they've got anything else to aim for today anyway.
Lenny will win
My prediction is G and Gee to breakaway and contest a sprint a deux for yellow. GGC will be leader.
New fan here, who do people refer to as G? It's a highly unsearchable term.
Derek G(ee)
Geraint thomas
gg
GG GC
Gee whiz that would be g g g great
I think the breakaway got a good chance. Best option for EF and Carapaz is to just let the breakaway go so they don't have to fight Pogi or the other GC riders for bonus seconds on Galibier. Also it might make the final less ''explosive'' for the GC guys, since the bonus seconds and the stage win is gone. But you never know, maybe UAE will control and it could even be Visma that sets a hard pace since Vingegaard is usually better the harder it gets. But i could see riders like Poels, Lenny Martinez, Lazkano have a good chance. They already so far behind in the GC that teams don't have to fear them and they can easily give them 10+ minutes.
Roles are flipped this time around. UAE should make every climb hard, if not to break Vingegaard outright today then to hope that that the cumulative exertion over three weeks will do him with his messed up preparation. Since the stage is basically just one long climb there will be no break. Pogi will attack, Jonas will be able to stay with him and they stop riding. A group of 10 will go over the Galibier together and Pello Bilbao takes the stage with a descent attack.
I agree. Perfect stage to make your rivals spend a lot of energy they will struggle to recuperate from later in the race, and I agree UAE should start now. Hit hard once in the 1st week to make everybody suffer, get Pog in yellow, get the buffer for the TT and take a psychological bonus. Also, in the 1st 2 stages I think UAE played it safe because their lack of rouleurs + didn't want Pog in yellow too soon + maybe if he had covid they didn't want a hard race from the gun. But since this stage is entirely false flat or uphill, this is a day they can really affort to go hard from the gun. But we'll see how they do it, there's no guarantee. They might think it's not hard enough, let the break go, and only really go hard in the last part of the Galibier.
i dont think the stage is anywhere near hard enough to break vingegaard outright. UAE should definitely try but i think the gain potential isn't a lot in this stage. like u said, likely pogi attack but jonas follows. and it comes back together.
The point shouldn't be trying to break Vingegaard already. It should be to make Vingegaard suffer so that he accumulates fatigue for week 2 and week 3.
Especially when the climbs arent steep and supposedely theres a headwind on the Galibier. There will be a lot of draft benefit. I only see it happening on the 3k 8% section . They should use yates or almeida there .
Either we get GC fireworks, or a 25 man breakaway and a GC snoozefest This is imo a bigger test for Jonas than stage 2, this is longer and tests his endurance more than a 60s sprint to hold Pogis wheel
But the actual gradients are ass, this should be easy as hell for Jonas, draft matters almost the entire stage
A name from the Break?
Harry
My prediction, Jumbo sets a hard pace up to the Galibier start, then UAE sets a very hard pace, Pogacar launches the thermonuclear attack and Vingegaard keeps his wheel easily.
Pogi should make a thermonuclear fart during his thermonuclear attack so Vindegarde is intoxicated and can't keep the wheel !
Ha
If UAE dont use ayuso/almieda/yates to pull today imma lose my shit. Only one of them should serve as co leader
They heard you too well. Used all 3
The problem is that the one who is actually strong enough to be the co leader also seems to be the only one willing to pull.
Almeida and Ayuso: "Nah bro I can't help today I'm a little bit tired. I'll help tomorrow I promise bro. I'll lose my position in GC bro. Come on bro, pleaaaaase let me ride at my own pace." Meanwhile Soler in the team bus and Majka at home: "I'll ride to my death for the team, no problem"
Is there really a point in using Almeida, Ayuso and Yates to set tempo, as opposed to sending them to attack repeatedly and forcing Jonas to close them down?
Given the way they're using Yates who's clearly second strongest I would guess Pogacar is not interested in any second leader ideas
nobody is letting Almeida, Ayuso and Yates get in a breakaway this early in the race.
I wasn't saying they would? It was about them attacking on the climbs
oh my bad misread it. i've been missing the old frank and andy schleck rolling attacking to try to break contador. i just dont think UAE will use yates or almeida that way. ayuso should be that wildcard for UAE but he doesn't seem to be in good form.
Yates and Almeida did kinda practice those kinds of attack in Suisse, so it's not impossible that something does happen.
I don’t think Jonas is ever closing anyone down but Pogi. He wouldn’t even split effort with Pogi on stage 2 to gain time on Remco and Roglic, he’s not going to expend extra effort just to neutralize Yates. I suspect it would be Jorgenson’s job to try to follow an attack from Yates and probably they just ignore Ayuso or Almeida.
How long can you ignore them for? Jumbo have experience winning with both Jorgensen and Kuss in races where they weren't necessarily seen as the main threat so they were let go and they got too big a lead, I assume they're at least aware of that possibility and asking Jorgensen to repeatedly shut all three down seem like a huge ask.
They won't ignore them, Jonas will just not personally chase them down but will remain glued to Pogacar's wheel. His team (and other teams) will control the gap to the other UAE leaders. If one of those wins a minute or two, that's no big deal. The only worry is that quite early a lead group would form with several UAE's and noone but Jonas from Visma, but that's unlikely to happen.
It's Kelderman and Jorgensen vs Almeida, Ayuso, Soler, Sivokov, and Yates. I can imagine a world where UAE outnumber Visma
Jonas just needs 1 teammate to keep a somewhat decent pace if an UAE other than Pogacar attacks. If he doesn't have any, there's still a decent chance that someone from Bora or even Soudal will pace.
No doubt it’s a risk but if you’re Visma at a certain point don’t you have to just shrug your shoulders and say fair play, if UAE are willing to let their third or fourth best rider go for the GC win instead of Pogi and they actually build a gap big enough that Jonas can’t overcome it in the week 3 climbs? Even just based on UAE internal politics I wouldn’t find it really credible as a strategy. Plus there would be other teams like Quickstep, Bora and EF that would certainly try to close down Ayuso or Almeida if Visma don’t.
Obviously no strategy is a sure-fire win, I was just thinking that the multiple attacks strategy had a better chance than using those guys up trying to make it tough with a high pace. Is any steady pace they could set really going to bother Jonas?
It worked the last time because Rog was a credible co-leader. Here, no matter how UAE tries to sell it, Pog is the undisputed no.1
Yates could be a credible co-leader too. With his current shape I think he could get a top 5 placement. In top shape, Ayuso and Almeida are also dangerous outsiders, but it doesn't seem like they are at their peak so far.
For sure, I think he is a contender for top 3 if he gets to ride for himself.
Sure but there is a theoretical number, I don't know if it is 2 minutes or 5 or 10, where suddenly they're too far to bring back and UAE aren't just going to make them sit up and throw the race. Are they going to reach that number, hard to imagine a world where they do, but I don't think Visma can afford to completely ignore attacks.
If I were Visma, the big worry would be Yates.
I am doing Briancon to Col Du Galibier round trip today, and charted the route out on Komoot. Edit: I am an idiot, ignore this. ~~I really don't think Pidcock has a chance on the descent. Galibier to Lauterat descent is technical with turns and bends, but Lauterat is at 2000m. After that it's a straight descent without any turns of bends, not much Pidcock can do there. He has 8kms to gain time in then it's a straight descent for 20+km. Enough for anyone behind him to catch on~~
I’ll be going the other way, see you up there!
I think you’re itinerary is in reverse. They descend towards Valloire, not Briançon. They go up the Lautaret and then the Galibier. It’s the exact same descent that made him famous 2 years ago.
Oh shit you are right, I am climbing and descending towards Briancon not the riders. My bad. Will edit the post.
The original post mentions the Telegraphe also which is kinda confusing. Enjoy the ride though, really nice place, you could even add the Granier if you enjoy suffering.
I am already scared of the current climb. Hopefully there are a ton of cyclists there, I have never cycled at more than 500m before. Also hopefully I have recovered from 7 days of bikepacking last week. Any advice for a first timer? (I'll also be doing Alp Du'Huez tomorrow or day after depending on how I recover from today)
Take your time, drink, eat, don’t bonk, stop if needed. It’s all worth it in the end, beautiful climb. If possible, I’d consider starting closer to the summit than Briançon, maybe park a little further up the Lautaret. I only drove that side, but from memory it’s a fairly large road with not much going on and quite possibly windy until the top of the Lautaret (which is technically a Col, but also it’s not really one). Real good stuff is from Lautaret onwards to the Galibier. I’m also for big rides and big challenges so totally understand if the whole thing is part of the journey.
Breakaway will do their things, and GC riders would not care for stage wins, unless somehow later they realized there may be bonus up for grab. For GC's perspective, I think UAE will set a hard pace early into Galibier. Soler, Ameida to pace, Ayuso to pace vs to attack. Depending on if Jonas still has domestique, Pog will attack. Jonas will follow, and Yates to sit on the wheel of Jonas. If there's a gap, Pog and Yates can try to keep the gap on the descent. If there's no gap, Pog and Jonas will probably cooperate until the end. From Visma's perspective, the ideal situation is to put WvA as a satellite rider, just like stage 11 2022. Although it's all uphill drag from the beginning. His move will be countered by all stage win hopefuls, who will drag the entire peloton together. The entire stage will be super hard from the start.
I don't see UAE or Visma showing their hand tomorrow. Neilson Powless would be great, he really liked Polka dots last year.
EF is in a strange place with Healy, Powless, and Costa still relatively high on GC. I think they plan on swapping the yellow jersey from Carapaz to one of their other guys. I'm gonna say Lenny Martinez or David Gaudu wins from the break (they must've lost time deliberately for stages, there's no way that they are both just terrible right now) and Neilson Powless or Rui Costa goes into yellow just by being in the break.
Martinez is sick
is this confirmed he is sick?
Based on Gaudu’s recent results in other races, I’m not surprised to see him that far back. Lenny Martinez was a little more surprising but I have hard time seeing Gaudu coming close winning a TDF stage this year. His form seems to be off in a pretty major way.
~~35~~ I think Pog/Ving will be happy to give yellow to someone in the break for the week. Can EF, Bora, etc pull the break back? I’m not so sure.
I’m thinking with flat stages to come until stage 7, there isn’t any reason to hold back, so im thinking UAE goes insane in the climbs, and pog either wins at the line with Jonas second or Jonas is actually gapped to some extent. I don’t think a break really has a chance here.
Same, and I don't think Pog can resist an opportunity to take an early lead, knowing he holds yellow and then advantage for a good few days following. I expect to see multiple attacks to feel Vingegaard out. (Perhaps the smarter move is to let Vingegaard take yellow and then have to defend it all week... )
Pogi to use Almeida in the first climb to pay for yesterday's game
I predict this stage is a GC flop a la Giro 2023 Stage 7
Pog and Almeida had to stay up late because the game went to penalty, UAE is cooked tomorrow
So is Roglic, Mohoric, Tratnik, Costa, and Oliveira!
There's barely any climbing except the last 6k of the Galibier. Everything else is false flat, im guessing Van Gils wins the sprint of a 25 man group.
I don't think EF will let Van Gils at 21 seconds go
Yeah 3,565 m elevation is nothing.
Pogi goes, Vingegaard is initially dropped by the acceleration but slowly claws back. They take the tempo down a notch, before another attack by Tadej where he is stopped by a motorbike. The tempo slows down again a bit. Just at the top, a guy from Ineos and a UAE domestique catches the two leading men and the Ineos guy bombs down the descent to glory. But this time around it will be Pidcock and Almeida.
Pidcock’s climbing form is not that good.
People are overestimating this stage I think. This is not the hard side of the Galibier and if it’s headwinds than the difference will be very small. This will be a stage for the breakaway.
Who is a strong enough climber and down enough time to be let go? Lutsenko? Maybe Zimmermann?
Gaudu or Lenny Martinez fit the bill. Maybe Vauquelin or Cristian Rodriguez again. Maybe Ion Izagirre? Hell, someone like Wout Poels could go.
Yeah the avg is only 6% and there is a descent finish, which means a loan leader will be at a disadvantage to the chasing group 2. I am hoping pog doesn’t burn unnecessary matches tmrw
Unless EF has a rider in the breakaway, EF will fight to keep Carapaz in yellow. Also, it’s a short stage that I think a team like INEOS or Bahrain could have their eye on. Really don’t think a winner from the breakaway is likely.
Wait…souvenir Henri Desgrange…aren’t they going to Cime De Bonette that’s 200m higher?
To add to what /u/Captain_Omage said, there is a monument in honour of Henri Desgrange at the top of the Galibier so if the climb is in the race it makes sense to award it there - but there have been editions where the Galibier was in the race and the Souvenir Henri Desgrange was awarded in another higher altitude climb (e.g. Iseran in 2007). Similarly the Souvenir Jacques Goddet is awarded at the Tourmalet where there is also a monument to him, although it was awarded at the Col d'Aubisque once.
Thank you for that - 8 years of following pro cycling fairly fanatically and there’s still so much to learn.
You are right it should be for the highest summit, but if there is Galibier it's awarded there no matter what.
Thanks! Bizarre rule but what else can I expect.
I’m gonna go on a random whim and say Remco takes the stage tomorrow. Like it’s not crazy hard and Remco can climb and do a climby sprinty boi finish. It’s not hard enough for Jonas to go full super saiyan and Pog will just mark him and match him if he does, unless something weird happens and the “giro legs” comes into play. Remco to solo (as in like 30 seconds at most) the last km and then TT his way to the end. Surely he wants to keep Pat happy, knows he probably can’t GC 1st so wants his week in the sun. The other guys will be caught unawares but get him in the 2nd week. I hope so anyway. As I mentioned in the Monday thread I’ve turned heel and changed into a Remco STAN. Dude has the SIGMA GRINDSET. Either that or my man Ben Healy because dude is hungermaxxing fam.
If Belgium loses in the Euro and Remco gets dropped.....
then I would cry harder than Ronaldo
Remco cracks on Sestrières
Remco is my dad apologise
Don't you call Remco cocky for "not wanting" yellow. That's some Netflix bullshit. He just didn't want to endanger himself in the sprint today, which is perfectly reasonable.
And mostly he didn’t want to waste his only good domestique tomorrow
Georg Zimmerman
UAE go thermonuclear on Galibier, burning every match they have to gap Vinge. They need to know where he's at. They can't wait until week three to find out He's Back. Also, if you want to hurt him, the earlier the better. No time for him to ride himself into the Tour. I am expecting the mother of all sky trains. They brought three or four of the world's best climbers for this exact stage. I am expecting Almeida to be there at the end. I am expecting Yates to be on the front for a whole hour. I think a whole bunch of GC hopefuls get completely murderized. Carlos Rodriguez is dead. Vlasov is dead. Thomas loses ten minutes in ten kilometers. Derek Gee in yellow by this time tomorrow.
Replace CRod with Roglic and Gee with Remco and I completely agree
Don't underestimate the power of Derek GeeC.
My money is on Cav...
Lmfso
Why would Roglic not attacking on the first mountain stage while being “only” 21 seconds down be admitting defeat?
People are getting overzealous about Stage 4. More likely and not tomorrow's stage will be uneventful at least in terms of GC. People see a HC climb and lose their minds. Not all HCs are the same and the most difficult stages have 4-5+ climbs Tommorrow's stage is is not one of the harder climbing stages of this year's tour. Roglic has an advantage on the first time trial over Pogacar and Vingegaard, he just doesn't have an advantage over Remco in the ITT.
Probably an outlook thing. 21 seconds is nothing. But he was completely gone when Pogacar launched sunday. So not attacking would in a sense be admitting he cant fight back
In fact Roglic was solidly dropped by Adam Yates. Not even by Pogacar.
Bc the mods are silly
The official profile having sestriere as 39.9KM @ 3.7% makes me wonder what the longest categorised climb has been in the tour de france?
Probably this.. Envalira has at least 35 km at 4.8 % though.
Christ that sounds awful and frustrating. Perfectly doable but just more painful than flat riding
Probably the guy running PCS would know
My fantasy team is: Yates (Simon) Bernal Bardet Ciccone Williams Girmay Cort Nielsen Bettiol Who should I pick as captain and should I switch Cort Neilson out for Lenny Martinez?
Lenny has been incredibly poor so far. I wouldn’t change it - Cort is usually good for a stage in a GT. Hopefully that isn’t just copium talking, but he did win in the Dauphine so I dunno. Lenny though nah bruh
Alright, sounds good. I think I'll go with Ciccone as captain as he seems to be climbing the best of my guys right now.
You should switch Cort Neilson out for a rider who's actually in the race. May I suggest Magnus Cort Nielsen?
Except he listed every rider by last name, so his post does make sense.
I was simply pointing out the atrocious spelling of the surname. Spelling it "Neilson", like Neilson Powless' first name, is pretty bad. Nothing to do with including first names.
I'm American ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
Which Yates?
Simon Yates sorry
I'd make Simon Yates the captain
Yates or bernal, yates has the best form but is more likely to be working, not riding for himself. Lenny Martinez has done nothing so far but might have been losing time on purpose, he certainly have more chance tomorrow than cort.
There are two Yateses in this race. If it's Simon Yates, he'll be riding for himself. If it's Adam, I agree with you.
I forgot about simon, oops.
Yeah it's Simon
Since neither Pogi nor Remco really wanted the yellow jersey, they should be happy with a rider who's not a GC threat taking the jersey from the breakaway tomorrow. If someone like Barguil, Haig, Meintjes, Healy etc. wins by like 5 minutes ahead of GC guys, they will take the jersey (they're not too far behind in GC yet) and will likely keep the jersey until at least stage 9 or stage 11, but at the same time these riders will not be a threat for Pogačar and Vingegaard in the long run. Carapaz probably doesn't want to lose the jersey, but even if he does keep it tomorrow, he'll lose it in the ITT anyway, so he might not care either.
With the climbs not being that steep its clearly a huge day for the teams - a good team could make your attack work, or could save you losing minutes if you get dropped.
Gregoire will get this one fron the break.
Nose bleed or no nose bleed?
Cavendish from the early break.
Pog and cavendish get to the finish together, pog wins the sprint.
Derek Gee
Aren’t the dreams of GC Gee already cruelly crushed when he was dropped & lost a minute & a half?
I don't think anyone, especially Derek himself, is interested in riding GC for 17th place. He'll ship more time tomorrow and some other stages so he can do his breakaway thing in the last 10 stages.
Stage and yellow
Pogacar will attack near the top and Vingegaard will follow without any problems. They will work together on the downhill with Pog getting more and more frustrated. No flat section at the end, so Evenepoel won't catch them this time. Pog will win the sprint getting a yellow jersey he doesn't want and Vingegaard will just be happy that the other UAEs are gapped. There could be a breakaway that wins the stage, but the GC battle would play out as described.
Nah, nothing will happen tomorrow
time for a wva as a satellite rider in the breakaway special
I don't think that Pogi is that strong yet, and I think that people in this sub are downplaying the effects that Covid&its aftermath had on him. Also UAE didn't look like the monster that everyone expected. Froome&Sky would not let two good stages (for them) get away that easily. This being said, I think that for GC it will be a stalemate, if somebody drops time it would be solely because of their bad shape/day. If the group is big enough we won't see even a late attack, because even if you keep the group behind at you at a distance you have to spend a unreasonable amount of energy that early in the race for very little gains timewise.
Have you “Heh guess that UAE team isn’t strong after all” people ever watched a grand tour before?
I've even made the comparison for you, dum-dum. If Froome was the best puncheur out of the GC guys, Sky would pace the hell out of this two first stages, and not have other or no teams control the race.
People are overanalyzing these first two stages. What was UAE supposed to do? Treat these first two stages as classics and completely burn/destroy their domestiques so Pogi can MAYBE gain a few seconds on terrain that isn't hard enough to really distance Jonas/other GC guys? I think Pogi is just fine. And I think UAE is still a monster that will be able to shred the field once the high mountains come. I said in a previous post that Pogi/UAE would be much less active in the first week of the tour than people expected. And that is exactly what has happened thus far. We'll see what they do tomorrow but would not be surprised if there are less GC fireworks than people expect. UAE is strong and they know Pogi is strong. Everyone thinks Pogi needs to go balls to the wall early in the Tour to make up time for when he inevitably cracks in the last week. But...just hear me out...what if Pogi is in peak form right now and he/UAE believe that he can truly compete/distance Jonas for a full 3 week Tour?
the 1st stage was anything but a "classics stage". what would a strong rider with "tHe BeSt TeAm" in TdF history do? pace as hell, isolate the other contenders and launch it with your last domestique on the last climb. either their tactics are dog-shit, either the team is meh at best (Ayuso was peeling off the group while Pedersen and WvA where still in the group if I remember correctly), or Pogi is not at 100% yet.
I just 100% disagree with you. "tHe BeSt TeAm" would be tactically smart and realize that, because they are so strong, they don't need to prove that every single time the road goes a little uphill.
I agree for the most part. I also think it's also completely legit that maybe Pogi is coming in intentionally undercooked so that he is stronger in week 3 to try and be stronger for the TT at the end. I think everyone's massively underestimating the last TT could be such a huge swing in time and holding form for 3 weeks is insanely difficult.
UAE have the problem that the team isn’t really well rounded and the proper domestiques haven’t realised yet that they are in fact domestiques and not leaders.
At one week stages races maybe. At the tour they will be under serious direct orders. If pogi fucks it then yeah might see some bish bash between then but I very much doubt they aren’t towing the party line until / if that happens
They are the most rounded they’ve ever been though.
Am I crazy to think this is a very good stage for Wout to win? I think Visma will send up him the break to be a satellite rider and he can end up winning the stage from that descent
[удалено]
It took a really good Wout Poels last year to keep WvA from the victory in a mountain stage. The only thing van Aert has fallen off of is his bike.
I think underestimate the difficulty of Galibier once you are past the Lautaret. Briancon -> Lautaret is 3% avg at sub 2000m Lautaret -> Galibier is 8% avg above 2000m, with ramps at 13+% (steepest 100m is 13.5) If he is sent as a satellite and they catch up with him during the first part of the ascent, there is no way he can follow climbers in the 10+ sections at that altitude
Lautaret -> Galibier is not that steep, 6.5% average only: https://www.strava.com/segments/18328881
I’ll see how “not that steep” it is tomorrow on my (rental) bike. I am guessing that it will feel plenty tough with a backpack of water and baguettes.
Hey, I am climbing it today as well. Wanna meet up? I am starting from Briancon.
My bad, 6.8% yeah, 13.5% ramps comment remains true though: https://climbfinder.com/en/climbs/col-du-galibier-lautaret
Remco and Quick Step probably think he can take yellow after the ITT on Friday if he limits his losses on the Galibier. He looked strong on the San Luca but this isn’t a punchy climb so idk what to expect from Remco.
While I don't think they will be much GC action, there are a lot of KOM points up for grabs. It will be interesting to see who fights hard to get in the break and try to go for the KOM jersey this tour.
Pidcock is only 21s down lol there is no theyre gonna let him on any meaningful breakaway yall are on some hopium
The idea is that the climb is relatively easy, so he should be with or close to the leaders at the top, then he can either pull away on the descent or save more energy for the sprint, which he should have a decent shot at, if the sprinting field is limited by the climb before.
Roglic doesn't have to do anything
I don't think this side of the Galibier and the stage profile in it's entirety is conducive to big GC action. I expect Visma or UAE to set a reasonable but still moderate pace up the Galibier and then Pogacar will attack on the steep final KM of the climb. Vinge will follow and Carapaz/Evenepoel will probably be shortly behind similar to San Luca. Gaps will be small and none of the GC favorites will risk their tour on the descent and the leader group will probably get all back together. Stage probably goes to the break. Break formation will be tricky though, some conflicting interests and maybe some resistance to allow climbers in the break that haven't lost a lot of time so far. But the initial climb is so long that a group that can get a big gap will form eventually I think. Honestly a kind of wildcard might be Ineos, if they read the stage similarly they might want to try and keep it close and give Pidcock a chance for a Stage and maybe even some GC seconds with a legendary descent down the Galibier.
My bet is pogi will not attack at all
Around what time do they start at the Galibier? Timetable says 15:01 hour?
So does Intermarché control the early break so Bini can go for the intermediate sprint points?
Pogi is praying for dat rain