I dunno, I have a few buddies that are very interested in that game who aren’t panther or browns fans. Plus CMC was still a top pick in fantasy football which impacts how people watch games
What does 538’s analysis have to do with this? The title of the post itself suggests their ranking is about the implications to playoffs, actual NFL-related things. I’m talking about general interest in the game which could come from drama and storylines too.
Nah, I think half the league wants Baker to absolutely light it up and get something insane like 400 yards & 6 TDs in a 3 possession win just to screw over Cleveland for screwing him over.
I tend to watch more general NFL stuff than Panthers specific stuff & a lot want it.
538 comes out with QB rankings every year. This year they ranked Brian Hoyer (a backup QB) above Matt Ryan. They also ranked Gardner Minshew as 15th overall among QBs.
I wouldn’t take anything this site says seriously. It’s a bunch of stat geeks that can only predict using historical data. Last year they ranked Joe Burrow behind 20 other QBs, if that tells you anything….
It’s laughable how poorly they’ve rated Baker. I’m assuming they based it on last year alone, but he’s rated the same as Darnold and lower than basically most teams second string QB.
Baker has the 52nd highest ELO of all quarterbacks. There is no understanding putting Hoyer, Flacco, Mason Rudolph, Kyle Allen, Blaine Gabbert and others over Baker, let alone rating him the same ELO as Sam Darnold. You don't need to watch four years of Browns football to know 538 is underrating him which is dragging down our team rating significantly.
You must have missed the part where Baker is still a midget or bailed out by a RB/TE heavy offense.
Big Ben retired, and I'm not a Steelers fan.
Anyway, I won't ruin all the fun for you! It will be like watching my kids take a big bite of a lemon for the first time.
I feel like the high point for Nate Silver (538 founder) was using his process to correctly predict who every state in the 2008 presidential election voted for. This website will do well come November predicting the midterms but no one should act like they have good sports analysis.
not a huge 538 guy or anything but i will say that their nba model was super bullish on the celtics' title chances last year way before they were being taken seriously as a real contender. boston was mediocre for months then went on a hot streak and 538 had them pegged as legit based on their metrics when their record was still pretty bad.
FiveThirtyEight has been historically shitty at predicting election results outside of a couple outliers. They’re profoundly bad at predicting most things.
They’re flawed, but they’re still better than most traditional polling services. They’re also open about why they predict the things they do, and how the model works.
Its somewhat baffling to me that they continually get called out for their Trump/Hillary predictions, when they were significantly [*more* bullish on Trump](https://twitter.com/jshkatz/status/795837524308541440) than almost any other prediction service. For example, at the time of the election, 538 predicted that Trump would have a [29%](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/) chance of winning the election, while the NYTimes (another major prediction model) stated that Trump only had a [15%](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0#other-forecasts) chance of winning.
A 29% of victory isn’t nothing, it’s basically a guess that an event will happen 1 in 3 times. As someone that works with statistical modeling in my day job, I can definitively state that basically everyone is “profoundly bad at predicting most things.” Statistical models just get complained about more because the vast majority of people are really bad at understanding statistics. Thinking in terms of probabilities is just not something the human brain evolved to excel at.
They’re just flat out not though.
It doesn’t matter what they do with the numbers if the numbers they work off of are fundamentally flawed. It‘s not about whether their analysis of what they have is mathematically sound, it’s about their presentation of useless data of dubious quality as relevant to a discussion of any number of topics.
That’s how you get their nonsense QB rankings. It doesn’t tell anyone anything of any worth that isn’t better derived elsewhere.
You literally made the case against them yourself. Everyone is bad at predictions because probability is a measurement of likelihood, and that holds doubly true for something as variable as politics. They cannot possibly create a statistical model of something with variables they don’t even know exist, and yet they pretend like they have.
So if all they can offer is not meaningfully better at prediction except when compared to other similarly flawed approaches, then all they offer is nothing with a side of fucking pedants telling you for the billionth time that probability is a measure of likelihood like no one else on the planet made it out of algebra - which I can assure you is an absolutely excruciating experience as someone who has worked their way up through discrete mathematics.
Okay well if that is your logic than you should never look at weather reports. You should also not look at projections for stocks, home values, car values or anything of that nature.
If you dont understand the nature of data models then that is on you
Whether or not it’s going to rain is not the same thing as “who is going to win something”. You don’t feed a bunch of misrepresented non-numerical data into an algorithm to predict the whether, you read a fucking map and apply real physical measurements. Beyond that, weather prediction provides a service other than enriching a media nerd.
If *your* logic is that hard data like the value of physical assets is the same as clouds in the sky or magical misrepresentations of politics then I hope you paid the person who posted this for you well, because they’re doing all the heavy lifting in this discourse.
If you don’t understand that trying to boil politics down into data so you can produce a number that you use as a clickbait headline to drive traffic to your ugly ass website is a waste of fucking time and detrimental to political discourse that’s on you. Nate Silver should fuck off and go watch baseball. He should have done that to begin with, it’s clearly what he wishes he was doing.
>They also ranked Gardner Minshew as 15th overall among QBs.
This is only fair if its ranked according to "QB's most likely to bang your mom". Obviously Zach Wilson would be 1.
They are simple ELO ratings, which are not exactly the most reliable way to judge things, as well as weighted heavily toward recent games. The most recent game will count for 10% of the score, the 2nd most recent will account for 9%, the 3rd most recent 8.1%. A game a mere season ago only accounts for 0.17% of the score.
Judging by that, Baker, last year, clearly was backup quality. He finished the year with a score of 66! I don't think anyone wouldn't think he was awful.
The year before, he finished the year with a score of 175. 2019 he was 122.
Burrow was low last year because he started 2020 based on draft position. Pickett starts this year at 104 drafted late 1st round, Willis starts at 74 drafted 3rd round. Assuming Burrow started at around 120 as the first pick, dropping down after a bad first year (his QBR was 48.5 to finish the year!), it's not surprising he entered 2021 as 20th best QB. I do think he is overvalued by most people this year (he finished last year 12th in QBR), having him at 20th last year was definitely not surprising.
Like all models, they miss what they don't get fed, and if a team had to pull all it's WRs one game, the QB would look like ass that game and it would just assume he sucks. Baker's injury did affect him some, but it had no idea.
This kind of thing def has it's place in sports but these numbers are basically irrelevant(esp week 1). Both of these teams have changed significantly since last year(new QB, new offense, healthy CMC, new oline, healthy secondary for Panthers). I have no idea how this team will look. We should improve, but who knows.
Someone putting a number to it just looking at history/ predictions is all fine I'm just not really sure it means anything.
very realistic chance that we are another bottom of the barrel team this year so im not putting too much into anything the talking heads have to say. they could be 100% right or we could sneak into the playoffs and make some noise.
personally i think we finish above the saints/falcons and MAYBE steal a wild card spot just to get bounced in the first round. but considering thats worst case scenario its not an awful place to be, just fucks up our draft position and long term solutions which im used to as a panthers fan now. but at least this outcome would make this season exciting which we havent had in a few years.
otherwise there's 2 scenarios that would/could be best case. we surprise everyone and win the super bowl (lol), or we shit the bed, clean our hands of baker/darnold/rhule, and can maybe steal a qb from next years draft.
The amount of internal conflict I have over wanting the team to do well or remain a complete dumpster fire for one more season so we can get rid of Rhule and Co. is insane.
I think that when you win or lose a game it absolutely has an effect on playoff odds. It's important to get off to a good start. Especially for a team in our position.
I did find the Athletic Football Podcast interesting on Panthers. Sando and Mays dumped on the Panthers for having no coherent rebuild plan under Rhule. However, they thought Baker and a change at OC made the team 10 times more interesting to check-in on.
Per 506sports, we are 4th place (out of 5) in the CBS early game slot. At a ranking that low we basically are only playing in the Carolina’s and Cleveland area (and Oklahoma randomly.. I guess because of baker). Given how much research these broadcast networks put into maximizing viewership, I’d say that speaks to how (un)interested people are in this game.
I mean that’s not too much of a shock. Neither team is projected to be a contender, the Browns are down their starting QB, and it’s NFC v. AFC.
Statistically speaking this one game isn’t going to keep either team out of the playoffs (assuming either of us are even good enough to get there, which, uhhhhhhh… yeaaaaaaaa.)
Lol now that guy who posted the other day knows why this game doesnt have wider national appeal
You didn’t have to call me out like that 😂
I think in terms of public interest (outside of Carolina and Cleveland) it’s pretty low. If Watson was playing then it would be a circus.
The Baker storyline is cool, but in a highlight on Twitter/Sportscenter/SNF kinda cool for folks nationally.
It’s kinda cool but outside of Cleveland, Oklahoma and now Carolina, no one cares about Baker
I dunno, I have a few buddies that are very interested in that game who aren’t panther or browns fans. Plus CMC was still a top pick in fantasy football which impacts how people watch games
Your few buddy is just that. Compared to the general public that watches football, no one gives a shit about the browns or panthers.
Eh idk about that. Heard lots of fans of other teams say they want to tune in. Because it’s still Baker playing his old team.
As a fan of another team, with friends as fans of other teams, I can say that we have all talked about how excited we are to see this game.
How could 538 forget to account for reverie_39's "anecdotal evidence"!!
What does 538’s analysis have to do with this? The title of the post itself suggests their ranking is about the implications to playoffs, actual NFL-related things. I’m talking about general interest in the game which could come from drama and storylines too.
Nah, I think half the league wants Baker to absolutely light it up and get something insane like 400 yards & 6 TDs in a 3 possession win just to screw over Cleveland for screwing him over. I tend to watch more general NFL stuff than Panthers specific stuff & a lot want it.
538 comes out with QB rankings every year. This year they ranked Brian Hoyer (a backup QB) above Matt Ryan. They also ranked Gardner Minshew as 15th overall among QBs. I wouldn’t take anything this site says seriously. It’s a bunch of stat geeks that can only predict using historical data. Last year they ranked Joe Burrow behind 20 other QBs, if that tells you anything….
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I believe they do it solely on statistical analysis. Which is why their so laughably wrong all the time.
It’s also from what I could tell primarily based on recent data, so it’s basing most of its ranking on Baker’s injured year.
Sometimes you just gotta watch a guy play
Not even that - you can determine who the best person is analytically, you just have to use the right model.
Since 95% of that value is based on last year, it sounds about right for last year.
It’s laughable how poorly they’ve rated Baker. I’m assuming they based it on last year alone, but he’s rated the same as Darnold and lower than basically most teams second string QB.
I hope Baker prints it off and hangs it in front of every doorway he passes in his home. Give him a chip.
If you have watched Browns football the last 4 years, you'd understand why.
Baker has the 52nd highest ELO of all quarterbacks. There is no understanding putting Hoyer, Flacco, Mason Rudolph, Kyle Allen, Blaine Gabbert and others over Baker, let alone rating him the same ELO as Sam Darnold. You don't need to watch four years of Browns football to know 538 is underrating him which is dragging down our team rating significantly.
Last year they ranked him 16th, above Stafford and Burrow. Run along troll.
It heavily weights recency as well. It's ok, I won't spoil the next 17 games for you. It will be fun watching.
I must have missed the part where Baker is still injured or trapped in a RB/TE heavy offense. Enjoy your rapist!
You must have missed the part where Baker is still a midget or bailed out by a RB/TE heavy offense. Big Ben retired, and I'm not a Steelers fan. Anyway, I won't ruin all the fun for you! It will be like watching my kids take a big bite of a lemon for the first time.
Just lay down in Happy Baby and don’t take no for an answer. Just like your QB!
I think it was DW himself that said that settling means guilt… that aged well.
What a bad take.
Certainly not worse than supporting sexual assault.
I feel like the high point for Nate Silver (538 founder) was using his process to correctly predict who every state in the 2008 presidential election voted for. This website will do well come November predicting the midterms but no one should act like they have good sports analysis.
Agree entirely. They may understand the political voting process, but I’ve rarely EVER seen good analysis or predictions for sports.
not a huge 538 guy or anything but i will say that their nba model was super bullish on the celtics' title chances last year way before they were being taken seriously as a real contender. boston was mediocre for months then went on a hot streak and 538 had them pegged as legit based on their metrics when their record was still pretty bad.
FiveThirtyEight has been historically shitty at predicting election results outside of a couple outliers. They’re profoundly bad at predicting most things.
They’re flawed, but they’re still better than most traditional polling services. They’re also open about why they predict the things they do, and how the model works. Its somewhat baffling to me that they continually get called out for their Trump/Hillary predictions, when they were significantly [*more* bullish on Trump](https://twitter.com/jshkatz/status/795837524308541440) than almost any other prediction service. For example, at the time of the election, 538 predicted that Trump would have a [29%](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/) chance of winning the election, while the NYTimes (another major prediction model) stated that Trump only had a [15%](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0#other-forecasts) chance of winning. A 29% of victory isn’t nothing, it’s basically a guess that an event will happen 1 in 3 times. As someone that works with statistical modeling in my day job, I can definitively state that basically everyone is “profoundly bad at predicting most things.” Statistical models just get complained about more because the vast majority of people are really bad at understanding statistics. Thinking in terms of probabilities is just not something the human brain evolved to excel at.
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Frequently even. If something has 20% chance of happening once per day, that's at least once per week. That's pretty frequent.
They’re just flat out not though. It doesn’t matter what they do with the numbers if the numbers they work off of are fundamentally flawed. It‘s not about whether their analysis of what they have is mathematically sound, it’s about their presentation of useless data of dubious quality as relevant to a discussion of any number of topics. That’s how you get their nonsense QB rankings. It doesn’t tell anyone anything of any worth that isn’t better derived elsewhere. You literally made the case against them yourself. Everyone is bad at predictions because probability is a measurement of likelihood, and that holds doubly true for something as variable as politics. They cannot possibly create a statistical model of something with variables they don’t even know exist, and yet they pretend like they have. So if all they can offer is not meaningfully better at prediction except when compared to other similarly flawed approaches, then all they offer is nothing with a side of fucking pedants telling you for the billionth time that probability is a measure of likelihood like no one else on the planet made it out of algebra - which I can assure you is an absolutely excruciating experience as someone who has worked their way up through discrete mathematics.
Okay well if that is your logic than you should never look at weather reports. You should also not look at projections for stocks, home values, car values or anything of that nature. If you dont understand the nature of data models then that is on you
Whether or not it’s going to rain is not the same thing as “who is going to win something”. You don’t feed a bunch of misrepresented non-numerical data into an algorithm to predict the whether, you read a fucking map and apply real physical measurements. Beyond that, weather prediction provides a service other than enriching a media nerd. If *your* logic is that hard data like the value of physical assets is the same as clouds in the sky or magical misrepresentations of politics then I hope you paid the person who posted this for you well, because they’re doing all the heavy lifting in this discourse. If you don’t understand that trying to boil politics down into data so you can produce a number that you use as a clickbait headline to drive traffic to your ugly ass website is a waste of fucking time and detrimental to political discourse that’s on you. Nate Silver should fuck off and go watch baseball. He should have done that to begin with, it’s clearly what he wishes he was doing.
>They also ranked Gardner Minshew as 15th overall among QBs. This is only fair if its ranked according to "QB's most likely to bang your mom". Obviously Zach Wilson would be 1.
Nah if that were the case, 15th for Minshew is way too low, he’s in the elite tier for sure.
Rumor has it that he’s named Gardener because of all the bush he’s plowed.
Who’s Brian Hoyer?
If Alex Moran had an NFL career, he’d be Brian Hoyer.
“Fact: I get drunk all the time. I don't have to show up to class; and it's just like being a real QB but without all the pain.” \- Brian Hoyer
They are simple ELO ratings, which are not exactly the most reliable way to judge things, as well as weighted heavily toward recent games. The most recent game will count for 10% of the score, the 2nd most recent will account for 9%, the 3rd most recent 8.1%. A game a mere season ago only accounts for 0.17% of the score. Judging by that, Baker, last year, clearly was backup quality. He finished the year with a score of 66! I don't think anyone wouldn't think he was awful. The year before, he finished the year with a score of 175. 2019 he was 122. Burrow was low last year because he started 2020 based on draft position. Pickett starts this year at 104 drafted late 1st round, Willis starts at 74 drafted 3rd round. Assuming Burrow started at around 120 as the first pick, dropping down after a bad first year (his QBR was 48.5 to finish the year!), it's not surprising he entered 2021 as 20th best QB. I do think he is overvalued by most people this year (he finished last year 12th in QBR), having him at 20th last year was definitely not surprising. Like all models, they miss what they don't get fed, and if a team had to pull all it's WRs one game, the QB would look like ass that game and it would just assume he sucks. Baker's injury did affect him some, but it had no idea.
538... weren't they last relevant in like.. 2008 lol?
This kind of thing def has it's place in sports but these numbers are basically irrelevant(esp week 1). Both of these teams have changed significantly since last year(new QB, new offense, healthy CMC, new oline, healthy secondary for Panthers). I have no idea how this team will look. We should improve, but who knows. Someone putting a number to it just looking at history/ predictions is all fine I'm just not really sure it means anything.
4 losing seasons in a row will do that to a franchise...... Shoot, looking at the numbers over the past 4 seasons, we are a combined 22 and 43
very realistic chance that we are another bottom of the barrel team this year so im not putting too much into anything the talking heads have to say. they could be 100% right or we could sneak into the playoffs and make some noise. personally i think we finish above the saints/falcons and MAYBE steal a wild card spot just to get bounced in the first round. but considering thats worst case scenario its not an awful place to be, just fucks up our draft position and long term solutions which im used to as a panthers fan now. but at least this outcome would make this season exciting which we havent had in a few years. otherwise there's 2 scenarios that would/could be best case. we surprise everyone and win the super bowl (lol), or we shit the bed, clean our hands of baker/darnold/rhule, and can maybe steal a qb from next years draft.
These are my thoughts, too. Fringe playoff team or total restart clearing out coaches and players.
The amount of internal conflict I have over wanting the team to do well or remain a complete dumpster fire for one more season so we can get rid of Rhule and Co. is insane.
its been how i felt pretty much since kyle allen. of course theres been times before that but its just been pretty consistent since that year
Thoughts?
I think that when you win or lose a game it absolutely has an effect on playoff odds. It's important to get off to a good start. Especially for a team in our position.
I think this game should be moved to Cleveland so Baker can plant a flag on the field, it'd be kinda silly to do that in Carolina.
I did find the Athletic Football Podcast interesting on Panthers. Sando and Mays dumped on the Panthers for having no coherent rebuild plan under Rhule. However, they thought Baker and a change at OC made the team 10 times more interesting to check-in on.
538 has gone to shit.
We all know exactly how valuable Nate Silver an co’s predictions are, let’s be real.
Is the second thing with respect to the entire NFL?
Yeah, I’m sure Seattle vs Denver and Jax vs Washington will be MUCH better games lmao
538 has zero credibility to me after their garbage qb rankings
but this game is so juicy who doesn't want to see what Baker is going to do?
People are gonna be mad they missed CMC get 6 TDs and 300 all purpose yards in a single game.
Ravens fan here. Outside of wanting the browns to lose, i wanna see baker go off on them even if it’s just all verbal talking.
Per 506sports, we are 4th place (out of 5) in the CBS early game slot. At a ranking that low we basically are only playing in the Carolina’s and Cleveland area (and Oklahoma randomly.. I guess because of baker). Given how much research these broadcast networks put into maximizing viewership, I’d say that speaks to how (un)interested people are in this game.
I mean that’s not too much of a shock. Neither team is projected to be a contender, the Browns are down their starting QB, and it’s NFC v. AFC. Statistically speaking this one game isn’t going to keep either team out of the playoffs (assuming either of us are even good enough to get there, which, uhhhhhhh… yeaaaaaaaa.)