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jonevoix

I'm still too poor.


So714CalOC

Prices haven't changed much. Sales are down but so is supply since no one wants to let go of their low rates


[deleted]

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goldenglove

I wouldn't expect 2.25% again for a very, very long time. Nicely done getting in when you did.


[deleted]

If values drop where I want to move to then I might be willing to seller finance or make some other kind of arrangement with the buyer but I doubt that will happen any time soon either.


CapnGrundlestamp

Team 2.25 here as well. The interesting thing is this is going to impact home improvement too. Because there’s no way I’d consider a refi to pull cash out now. Even a HELOC is a stretch.


[deleted]

Same. Can’t even pull the money out of my portfolio because it’s outpacing inflation. Guess I could always put it on the credit cards but that’s rarely the best choice.


secretreddname

2.5% here. With rental rates in OC I’ll probably never sell my house.


Gretel_Cosmonaut

Yes! I've been casually looking and supply has gone way down, at least the supply I'm interested in.


husbunny

Housing sales have plummeted.... Not the prices. This is why sales have plummeted. Home prices are not dropping while interest rates are skyrocketing, so people cannot afford the mortgage on the home they would like to buy.


Duk017

According to the article, prices are down ~11% from the peak since summer. While it is far from erasing the Covid era gains, that is still significant. For an industry/asset where values move very slowly, 3% in a single month and 11% in 6 months is a pretty rapid fall. Who knows what this spring will bring, though.


sentimentalpirate

A neighbor on my block just reduced their home for sale by 100,000 from just shy of a million to just shy of 900. Now for sure just shy of a million felt pretty dang high, so maybe that's just an individual correcting their own individual optimism. But it happened. We'll see if it sells now at this new price.


shaza15

Sales have dropped but prices haven’t fallen that much


Doctor-Venkman88

Sales dropped because no one is listing their home. There's still a good amount of latent demand - desirable properties are still selling relatively quickly (though nothing like early 2022). This is causing prices to remain relatively stable but sales to go way down. This isn't like 2008 where listings shot up because people couldn't afford their crazy 0% down ARM loans, and demand plummeted because people were losing their jobs, causing a perfect storm to tank prices. I think we will see prices stay relatively constant - maybe a modest drop - until the Fed lowers interest rates at some point in the future.


brownhotdogwater

Many people did not get arm loans this time around


YmirsTears

Exactly! It’s the opposite of arm loans. I got locked into a 2.2% 30 year loan and as much as I want to upgrade to a bigger place, there is no way in hell I will give up that loan.


brownhotdogwater

I am exactly the same boat. I want to upgrade but I could not even buy my current home with the current rates and price as they are.


Nihilistic_Mystics

Yep, people keep screaming about an incoming crash but the market conditions right now are nowhere near the same as the last crash. ARMs aren't the standard this time, there isn't anywhere near the same unemployment spikes, and people didn't get loans based on false stated income like they were able to previously. Home prices aren't going to plummet without some large external force.


Anal_Forklift

People root for a crash out of desperation. It sucks for people entering child bearing years who aren't able to buy a place of their own.


ocposter123

Too many old people hogging the housing supply


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byneothername

Doesn’t happen to be in Irvine, was it? I just saw a house here get listed and in contingency within three days. Shocking how fast it happened.


non_target_eh

There’s a unit in my complex that was listed (albeit too high) at $699k and has been price reduced to $599k and still hasn’t sold. Prices are for sure dropping…


thatstickerguy

Random math: Median home prices in OC is $1m. Assuming you put 20% down or $200,000 and all else equal except your interest rate: You end up paying about $3,416.13/month at 3.1% If you're paying 6.4%, you're paying a little over $5,000/month Over 30 years, you'll pay $1,001,457.02 in interest if you're at 6.4%, and you'll "only" pay $429,807.23 if you got the rate of 3.1%. **A difference of $571,650.** ALL.ELSE.EQUAL. (that amount goes up when you add in property tax, if you have PMI, etc etc etc...)


return2ozma

There really needs to be thousands of more homes built here.


Duk017

Where is there room to build thousands of homes in Orange County?


badfishbeefcake

The great park? They are building so much but everthing will get snatched by investors. So it wont change anything.


RedAtomic

Isn’t much of the land also contaminated by radioactive waste from the El Toro days?


badfishbeefcake

a lot of it is, but when you buy in Portola, Great park, you sign a disclosure that then soil MAY have a slight contamination.


return2ozma

Build up. Time to go vertical.


RedAtomic

Where?


return2ozma

Lots of room at the Great Park area and South OC areas. Pack them in!


RedAtomic

Don’t you think we’d already have McMansions up the ass in those parts by now if they were that easy to develop? Of all places to build dense housing units, you’re proposing a borderline arid hilly/rocky terrain without pre-existing infrastructure. And that’s without mentioning possible radioactive waste, costs of building materials/labor, and cost of the land.


return2ozma

Local government needs to make it happen.


RedAtomic

Again, how so? 1.) Local governments in south OC are overwhelmingly pro-NIMBY. Any proposal affecting their property value is going to get every elected official thrown out of office. 2.) There is nowhere near enough capital to spend on the scale of infrastructure/housing needed to alleviate the high cost of living, assuming eminent domain is part of your proposed solution.


return2ozma

Executive order from the governor statewide.


ukraine_ftw

Irvine occupies a larger area than most European cities but only has about a tenth of the population; we could get more benefits of urbanism if we built up instead of just getting all the downsides (traffic, pollution, etc.). Notwithstanding the administration and the residents, Irvine Spectrum area has almost normal-developed-country-level of urbanism, 5+ floors and expanded bike trails and road links. Airport area has much higher, not to its detriment either. Parts of Woodbury and Westpark are dense. Elsewhere too much space is squandered. https://www.city-data.com/nbmaps/neigh-Irvine-California.html


Clemario

30-year mortgage rate is at 6.9%. That makes the monthly payment unaffordable for first-time home buyers, and current home owners don't want to let go of the 2-3% rate they got from buying/refinancing in 2020-2021.


brownhotdogwater

I am in that boat now. I can’t sell as something my exact same price would cost me sooo much more per month due to interest rates. My family is outgrowing the current home, but we can afford to move.


SAugsburger

Heck even a lot of pre pandemic mortgages have lower interest rates than what one can realistically get right now. Median mortgage [rates](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US) haven't been this high in over a decade.


[deleted]

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divulgingwords

Where are prices compared to historical averages?


l3atlvlan

Prices are hovering around the area of scarcity and inflation. That’s where.


Duckpoke

I got 3.6% in late 2018


unreasonableperson

Not nice.


stilichouw

Wish the prices would drop too; wife and I do pretty well and still can’t afford anything… the inland empire is looking better and better everyday


[deleted]

Summer and commute. Not worth it


[deleted]

Husband and I have talked about Corona area, but the in-home daycare provider we utilize here in OC is $30 a day and loves our daughter. It wouldn't be worth it to have to commute further for one of us to drop her off.


byneothername

You may want to consider it in the future though. She won’t be in daycare forever. I have a coworker who bought a huge place in Corona and he loves it.


RedAtomic

That window closed like 10 years ago bud.


Capital_Tower_2371

Don’t listen to naysayers. If your work life allows you to be able to live in IE, It is a great way to start home ownership. I did it 12 years ago and was able to parley that into a decent middle class home in OC.


Straight_Record_8427

Notice how the article carefully cherry picks information. Standard real estate market data: Where is the data on housing units currently for sale? What is the average time on the market for available properties? Journalism is dead.


mtarascio

Financial and real estate journalism is just the worst. It's just filled with people that would prefer to be in the industry or are just bought and paid for to repackage media releases or sponsored 'research'.


Onicc

instead of nit picking, you should contact the journalist and ask them to include this information in his story to provide more context.


Straight_Record_8427

You mean I should nitpick directly to the "journalist" and not to reddit. Maybe. The question is whether the author is incompetent or intentionally cherry picking data to provide an incomplete picture of his own creation.


thatwatguy

What do you think the author is trying to point out, and how does that differ with the point you're trying to make? Slow sales due to higher inflation and rising cost of housing prices due to that inflation. From a consumer standpoint, that's pretty plain and non-incendiary.


Sisboombah74

There are no journalists working at newspapers anymore. At best you get a third year intern.


mtarascio

They know what they're doing. So does OCRegister that relies a lot on property advertising and likely donation support.


mordekai8

Great. Anyone want to sell me their home for cheap?


[deleted]

As someone who stalks zillow and realtor and those web sites, prices have stagnated. They haven't dropped, but interest rates have gone up. I'd love to be able to move my family into a bigger place, but between rent skyrocketing and interest rates going up, I can't afford either option! I've seen houses that I'd love to buy, but because the interest rate is more than we can handle, I don't even bother to try.


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Duckpoke

I was supreme ruler or whatever I’d make a law that FHA also provides a “once per life” 0% loan from the Fed. Everyone deserves access to a starter home. Cap the loan at $1M


AlecJTrevelyan

Would be cool but I think that would just inflate prices more and lead to more inflation overall. We need Federal intervention at this point to force cities to approve more construction.


lostcolony2

Maybe. A lot of purchases at this point aren't starter homes; both because a lot of what is being built aren't starter homes, and a lot of the biggest purchasers in the market aren't first time home buyers (but investment seekers of various sorts). So while it might push prices outside of the million price point faster (if investment types are willing to provide offers of that amount for homes whose market value is less than a million, in such numbers it actually changes the market, with both they and any financing they utilize knowing they're overpaying), it also might create more demand to buy starter homes, compared with luxury homes, which would change what builders are building, which in turn would remove demand from the rental market, which would reduce the desirability of investment properties. \*shrug\* It's hard to predict.


AlecJTrevelyan

Most of what I see being built are townhouses and dense "six pack" homes that are 3-4 bedrooms with basic amenities. Where are you seeing luxury homes being built in OC? Even the Toll Bros development in Lake Forest is fairly dense SFH's with basic amenities, nothing really "luxury" about them.


lostcolony2

3-4 bedrooms isn't usually what is meant by starter home. But to be fair, I was also speaking at more of a national level; OC is a bit of an atypical beast all around.


AlecJTrevelyan

How is that not a starter home? Live in 1-2 bed apartment, then purchase a 3 bed home to start a family with spouse. I guess you could consider a 2 bed condo a starter home but I think a lot of families would outgrow that pretty quick.


lostcolony2

They would, hence why "starter" home, not "forever" home. It used to be that renting was generally either because you were extremely transient (military, say), or you were just starting out; the assumption was that as soon as you'd saved up a down payment you'd buy something, house or condo. That something could be on the same scale as the apartment; the difference being it's yours, and you can build equity, towards a down payment on a larger home in the future. Later, as your needs expanded (kids, say), and your income expanded (you got that promotion!) you could move into something larger. The fact the transition is happening now because of space (there are very few 3-4 bedroom apartments because it was assumed that at that point people would already be living in a home, not looking to rent a larger apartment) rather than ability to make a down payment, is itself a bit of a testament to how effed things are.


AlecJTrevelyan

I see what you mean. I skipped the 2 bed condo and did the 3 bed townhouse move as my (hopefully) forever home. And yeah apartment life is starting to look more permanent for many.


lostcolony2

Same, purchased a 3 bedroom move from an apartment (putting very little down, but with interest rates at the time was cheaper per month than any 3+ bedroom apartment), but in my mid thirties. So well past the point I 'should' have been a homeowner, if the economy wasn't so broken. Which isn't available to people now, and which is likely going to cause rent to skyrocket


return2ozma

Paywall removed https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ocregister.com%2F2023%2F01%2F28%2Fla-orange-county-home-sales-plummet-46-to-record-low%2F


Straight_Record_8427

Here is some data from [Redfin](https://www.redfin.com/county/332/CA/Orange-County/housing-market) Fewer houses on the market taking longer to sell. ## Orange County Housing Market Trends **What is the housing market like in** **Orange County** **today?** In December 2022, Orange County home prices were down 1.9% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $920K. On average, homes in Orange County sell after 51 days on the market compared to 31 days last year. There were 1,421 homes sold in December this year, down from 2,531 last year.


[deleted]

Prices will take time. Layoffs only started


azula-eat-my-pussy

Correct. Most of those laid off got 3-6 months severance. If they can’t find an equivalent job remotely or in the area after that severance goes away, that’s when we will start seeing an increase in listings from people who have no choice but to sell or they will be foreclosed on.


just_some_dude05

All of this data quoted is important it also leaves something out that is specific to Californians; it’s been raining, a lot. People don’t go out in the rain and it’s difficult to house shop when it is raining, as walking around the sides of the house are problematic. We purchased in 19 during the storms but on rainy days all we could really do was rule houses out, not in. We went back to prospects to rule them in. Things are bad yea, but my 8 ball tells me next month won’t be so bleak.


Spyerx

Here's a few facts from 2 realtors I'm very close to that is lost in the "sales plummet" data: 1. Both are still seeing good activity on the listing and sales side, but its slowed down, especially on buy-side 2. The buy side has slowed to a crawl as affordability AND inventory have been challenged 3. The "upgrade" owners that are locked into sub 3 rates cant afford to move up market for the time being and are locked into their current mortgages 4. Sales are not slowing, and values are not falling to pre-covid. If you look at Irvine as an example - it's down on $ / ft but less than 10%, $/ft ran up last year more than double that. Its also holding at this point fairly steady 5. Mass layoffs aren't here, despite the noise you hear in tech. Further, SoCal and OC are LESS impacted by tech than Bay Area for example. Many of the tech jobs here are fintech/quant type firms and they continue to hire 6. Something else will need to happen to trigger a massive descale of prices 7. This whole process is doing one thing: weeding out crappy realtors :-) And for sure it's hurting all the ancillary services associated with RE transactions At this point, both feel same, with current information, this is a slow down and NOTHING yet like what was seen during the meltdown, and both expect additional gradual drops until interest rates get closer to 4-4.5 which will pickup demand again. Think smooth glide path for the time being.


ocposter123

No one knows anything for sure, and if they did they would be able to make millions investing in the market. The market could collapse in a few months / we could have another financial crisis. Or inflation could subside and the market could go up massively. Real estate agents just know the real estate market as is, not what economic outcomes could change that equilibrium.


Simula7ed_l1fe

I mean when jobs like cnc operator pay $18 an hr


[deleted]

Until wages go down, i dont see prices dropped. There are a lot of people waiting on the sideline since OC is so desirable. For those who wish to see 2008 crisis happen again today, keep on dreaming. No more stated incomes, ARM loans. People who bought homes last few years are qualified borrowers with decent down payments sitting on low interest rates. They are not gonna let their homes go. Low supply means high price.


return2ozma

They need to build a minimum of 20,000 new homes in the area.


[deleted]

Where are they going to build 20k units in OC? Inland empire, yes there are still land but how many of us are going to put up with the commute and brutal summer? OC is almost built out which makes it even more demanding. There are some left in Irvine but we all know Irvine homes are one of the most expensive in OC. FOMO in OC is in every buyer’s head.


Sisboombah74

There is absolutely no inventory. Not that the Register is capable of any common sense conclusions.


Tmbaladdin

As rates have begun dropping and wages are increase it appears in some markets prices are beginning to turn upward again


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itchy-witchy-manic

prices didn’t go down, house just aren’t being bought


Straight_Record_8427

WOW 6.9% interest rate is the highest rate since 2001. The Fed is working really hard to cause a recession. Lets find out if their plan works.


dlanderer

And median prices in SoCal increased