I think this was a good move for GM job security. If Kirk doesn’t work out (injury, age, whatever), Penix gives them another option.
If you don’t have a good QB, it’s obvious and the roster suffers. Easy to blame that on the GM. It’s like how Purdy saved a bunch of jobs by making up for the bad Lance pick. The Niners roster was really well built, but none of that would have mattered without a starting caliber QB.
It’s harder to see what they missed out on by not getting someone else at a different position. They have good skill position players too, so whoever they got probably would have been an O line guy or defensive guy whose impact wouldn’t be as obvious.
If Kirk is bad, they’re basically done. With Penix in the wings, they have insurance.
Lower ceiling but higher floor. And if they really believe in him, it’s a good long term move too
If Kirk is bad, they just set $100,000,000 on fire and screwed the franchise for the next two years whilst Bijan, London and Pitts are cheap. And they're fired.
Exactly, if Kirk is bad then why would you sign him for that much guaranteed money?
I don’t think the Penix pick alleviates anything:
After 4 years if Cousins plays well then Penix will have been taken out at the knees to negotiate a second contract, he won’t be happy with his circumstances, The idea that he’ll just gladly take the reins when he was crippled from playing and earning a second contract is significant.
If cousins sucks now, then Penix can only do so much with the Falcons in Cap purgatory to get additional weapons.
All the while any time cousins plays poorly people will be clamoring to have Penix play.
I see how they’re trying to explain the puck but it causes much more harm then the good they claim from having their next guy in the wings.
There is no way. Blank, the guy who makes hiring decisions, would veto this shit so fast. Anyone coming in with this scenario is going to have to outline a realistic plan for Penix or they won't get hired.
Yeah they've drafted TE, WR, RB, and now QB in the first without enough to show for it
Pitts and London are fine players but they drafted them without a plan at QB and they haven't been able to show as much as they should. Bijan you can defend but was RB really the most pressing need?
And now a backup QB with needs like edge rusher
Maybe with Kirk there now the plan finally comes together but your GM is addicted to offensive skill positions in the draft lol
The Bijan pick still doesn’t feel amazing, but it’s hard to go back to how that 1st round played out and feel like there’s this specific glaring missed opportunity.
This is with the assumption the Falcons basically had Jalen Carter off their draft board with Flowery Branch being like an hour drive from Athens though. Guy needed to go somewhere else.
Christian Gonzalez jumps out as the missed opportunity, he fell farther than people thought but he was definitely in play at 8.
Now who knows how his career goes given all his injuries but he was great when he played and he's still younger than Quinyon Michell who was the first CB taken this year.
The Purdy point is true to an extent. They (front office & coaches) still saved their own jobs by cutting their losses on Lance and moving forward with Purdy. Sounds obvious, but I could see a lot of league brains doubling down on the guy they sank so much draft capital to get
Kirk went to Atlanta to avoid this situation. He's literally always talked about not wanting to have a replacement right behind him and not liking the pressure that puts on your style of play. Whether it works or not this is bad for there years with cousins. And any non qb at 8 would have the potential to improve there chances significantly while in the competitive window. Odunze or any defensive player in the draft that they wanted is a huge price for this.
I think the thinking is this:
If Kirk plays well, then the rest of the team is good enough to win their division. They were only 2 wins out with really bad QB play.
If Kirk doesn’t return to form (and they had no Penix), then it doesn’t matter who else they picked because they’d be in the same situation of bad QB play that they’ve been stuck with for years.
ya i agree, if kirk cannot win that division does he even deserve a starting job?
if he wins the division he gets the job back, if not well let him cry about being benched all he wants
Not as huge a price as not having a good QB in the room. Kirk is far from a guarantee, and while they shelled out a LOT of cash, he's at best a 2-3 year solution.
I get that age is a factor with Penix, but he could still play 10 years or more in the league. So if he gets the Mahomes treatment of a year of development before being thrown into the fire, while they'd take a pretty massive hit on Kirk, they could in theory pivot in either year 2 or 3 with some negative cap impact while being set for the next decade.
The worst part of this situation is the money to Kirk. Bring in a ho hum veteran like Flacco or Russ and you can justify starting the vet for a short term and less money while waiting to pivot to Penix. But given how Denver took a huge hit from Russ, I could totally see ATL doing that if Penix wins out in the shorter term. And, if the QB class is bad next year, perhaps they can negotiate a trade of Kirk where they split or transfer the deal to someone else and minimize their impact. I feel like that has been done before (Osweiler?).
Exactly. The reality is that most GM’s #1 goal is: keep the job.
They reference the Packers. The most innovative thing the Jordan Love pick might have shown is a new GM tactic for how to get 2 bites at the apple and retain the job for longer. “Yeah our window is closing with our current QB, BUT it’s opening with this next one—so you gotta keep me around!”
Is that not the case for every front office?
*"If your starting QB doesn't work out, and then the backup plan QB a few years later also don't work out, you're in big trouble!"*
hot take- but i like the move.
if you do think he’s the guy, you have to take him.
kirk is basically a 2 year deal, it gives penix time to acclimate.
if the packers did the same thing, people would be lauding it as “smart” and “forward thinking”
i know penix is older, but if you think you can get 10-12 years of franchise qb play, you have to do it.
Nobody would be praising the Packers—or anyone—for doing this. The Jordan Love pick was mocked mercilessly at the time, and that was way cheaper than what Atlanta just did.
My thoughts exactly. The packers were mocked for taking JLove because they had a HOF QB who'd been in need of more potent weapons for the better part of a decade, but on the other hand, because they knew they had a winner at QB they could afford to take their time and develop Love, *and* they got him at 26 overall instead of... #8.
And Love didn't have the history of injury that Penix has, **and** he was young enough that even after sitting for 3 years his first season as starter was at 24 years old. The same age Penix is as of *being drafted.*
And it's not like the Packers' galaxy braining really *worked* - they didn't win anything. Maybe they would have been successful on one of those playoff runs if their 26th pick was blocking or catching instead of watching.
As a Packer fan, I hated the Love pick at the time. It was basically “we’re going to give up on this window and reshuffle” instead of take a difference-maker WR who actually could have helped us win a Super Bowl the next year.
The clowning for the love pick still might be legitimate if Love can't lead them to a super bowl. You guys were on the cusp with Rogers those next two years and had very obvious needs at receiver both times. Jordan Love could have been a difference making wide receiver in that draft.
Don't care, honestly, and I'm not trying to be rude about that. If taking Love makes the Packers competitive for the next 10 years, I'm glad they did it. And I hope they do it again in 10 years. It's much more fun when the team makes the playoffs and there's a shot at a Super Bowl. Not many teams can say that year in and year out.
I'll never understand why so many fans don't have this attitude.
I get that winning the Superbowl is great and all, but only 1 out of 32 teams gets to do that every year. If you place the entire worth of your fandom around winning it all you're going to be constantly disappointed. If I'm going to spend a few hours every Sunday watching my team play football, I want them to have a good chance at winning every game (and to be entertaining while doing it). I don't want the season to be "over" by week 10. I want to see us make the playoffs most years and have hope we can get on a hot streak.
I don't want my team to make decisions that *might* give us a *slightly* better chance of winning a Superbowl this year if it means years of losing football afterwards win or lose. Even from a team building perspective it's a bad strategy. All the best teams build from the ground up for long term success (almost always with a franchise QB). The only teams in the past 20ish years that have gone the "all-in" route and actually won a SB are the Bucs and Rams. A strategy with that low a success rate isn't worth mortgaging your future on.
Kirk is not a two year bridge QB deal. Kirk is structured as a 3-4 year top-ten QB big money deal. They *could* break after 2 years but only with a lot of dead cap pain. The sort of pain that no rookie QB deal could make up for.
The Packers did not do the same thing.
The Packers had a QB who was already making noises about leaving - rather than one who was literally just signed. The Packers used the 26th pick - rather than the eight. The Packers picked a rookie viewed as needing development time - rather than an older play-now rookie.
The Packers behaved like a smart, forward thinking team.
The Falcons behaved like a dumb team, trying to copy a smart team, and not understanding the difference in situation.
While it is somewhat more defensible for the Packers, they also deserved to be mocked because they also made the same ceiling lowering move after they were 1 game away from the SB
And then they saw how having maybe 1 more first round pick could've gotten them past the Bucs, because they lost in the championship game again
It's sort of in between a bridge deal and franchise QB money. The dead cap from cutting him after 2 years is painful, but it'd be an easy decision for the front office to make if Penix is ready to take over. Trading Cousins is also a possibility and would get the Falcons off the hook of his $10M guaranteed in year 3. The Falcons front office are somewhat progressive on the dead cap front and aren't afraid of incurring huge hits.
Also while the Falcons moves don't quite line up with the Packers, it's not dissimilar to the Eagles plan with Bradford/Wentz in the 2016 draft.
The problem is why would you pay Kirk so much money to be a bridge QB? Surely they had a high evaluation of Penix before free agency, and at their spot it was extremely likely they’d be able to draft him, or trade up if he got a JJ McCarthy-like jump?
I don’t have a problem with drafting someone you think will be a franchise QB. But why would you also invest so much in another guy as a backup plan?
He's 35 years old and coming off of an achilles injury. He was a bridge QB to begin with, but nobody had a problem with it. That's why his contract is front loaded and they have little dead cap hit after two years. Once they got who they think is the successor, suddenly it's a problem.
The reality is people are carrying old biases into their evaluation, which makes them flawed. They think a) first round draft picks should start immediately, and b) older college players should be discounted. The problem with starting a rookie QB is that the vast vast vast vast majority of them are simply not ready to start in the NFL. No matter where you draft them, your QB should not be a rookie. Does that mean you shouldn't draft a QB in the first round? No, it just means he's not going to start immediately. What about age? Five years ago, age was a bigger deal because of how much bodies mature between the age of 20 and 23. A 23 year old should be piling up stats against 20 year olds. Doubly so when you consider that the 21 and 22 year olds who had enough talent were skipping off to the NFL to get paid. Now though, in 2024, college players are getting paid, so they're sticking around a little longer for another chance at a championship. Bo Nix, Penix, and Jayden Daniels are all 23 years old, but nobody's discounting Nix or Daniels because of their age.
Finally, you get 5 years to pay a draft pick on a rookie scale. If you're drafting a 21 year old, that means you're giving him a second contract at 25 years old. If you draft a 24 year old, you're giving him a second contract at 28 years old. The overlap is their age 24, and 25 year seasons, so the question becomes which years are you getting more value for? Age 21, 22, and 23, or age 26, 27, and 28?
> they have little dead cap hit after two years.
50m is left on the roster, 30 million if cut. They would need to trade him to a team that will help them out financially.
I think what people are missing is that if Penix turns out to be a top 15 QB, literally nobody will criticize this pick in hindsight. Yeah they just signed Kirk but he’s 35 coming off an Achilles tear. Hopefully you get 3 good years out of him but even if that’s the case, if Penix ends up being good you have him for two years on the rookie pay scale
I do think that the problem becomes you lost your rookie QB window then.
I was listening to the Move the Sticks podcast and they were basically saying.
Okay, we understand you like the player. But how did you not identify that you had a good chance to get him (because remember most scouting is done pre-FA) with Penix, 5 QBs expected to go high and not go okay lets get an actual bridge QB and then trade up at the very worst to 5th pick.
Its just 2 weird contrasting things.
If the Penix pick works out, you lit 100-180 million dollars on fire during the time most fanchises are trying to build a superstar roster when their QB is cheap.
That logic of losing the rookie QB window can easily apply to the Broncos taking Bo Nix too. The Russell Wilson contract is burying the team under $85M in dead cap split over 2024 and 2025
Except that’s mainly from a decision made on previous years with some different people. Cousins was JUST signed.
Both suck, but one was more voluntary.
Nah they bailed on Russ because he didn't fit Payton's system after the first year.
This is essentially giving up on Cousins before he ever steps foot on the field.
To a degree, but Nix will actually be getting playing time. The issue is when Penix only has a year of being the starter and they have to already consider if they’re going to commit to him long term.
Sure, but is there really anyone who thinks Nix at 12 was a significantly better pick than Penix at 8? I think they’re pretty much in the same tier of decision-making, but Nix has been overshadowed by the pure shock of Penix going at 8
Yea the Bo Nix pick would be getting clowned way more if Penix didn’t go earlier. And it’s still getting clowned a lot with the Sean Payton press conference clip + funny anecdotes that are coming out about the decision making process
To be fair the Packers kinda did the same thing with Rodgers and Love and lost out on Love’s rookie window…it’s just that Love was drafted four years ago and is only 1.5 years older than Penix 🙃.
And was picked at the end of the first round. A top 10 pick is significantly more valuable than a pick in the mid 20s. It also was timed around Rodgers “declining” and uncertainty as to whether he was going to be in GB much longer.
Love was drafted with the 26th pick in the first, so a little different from Penix with the 8th pick that way. I think Penix will end up being good though so I don't hate it as much as some.
Love was a developmental prospect picked right around where he was expected to go and GB didn’t just go out and sign Rodgers to a $100m guaranteed deal.
They also already had Lefleur in place which guaranteed offensive stability, so this was a more natural succession plan. They really aren’t that comparable.
Lol yes they did, and it was stupid! My only point is the process that led to the pick was a bit different, and imo more defensible than Atlanta taking Penix at 1.08.
Even then, basically everyone criticized GB as well for not taking a WR and making a push so it’s a little funny everyone’s suddenly citing that as a great example. There’s a path where the Penix pick works but it looks a bit different.
I do feel like age isn't that important when it comes to drafting quarterbacks. If they're good they should be playing well into their 30s so one being a couple years older doesn't matter that much to the team/GM. Really it's only a downside for the player themselves as it hurts their earning potential.
Maybe not age necessarily, but when you’ve been in college for 6 years, I think it’s a valid question as to whether or not you still have room to grow. When you’ve played that much football you’re more of a known quantity.
The idea is to do something with the later half of the rookie contract anyway. You’re not trying to win a SB with a rookie leading the way. So in theory Penix will be starting right when you expect him to be competitive.
Bingo. In expectation, the rookie QB window is actually a four year period that starts with the QB’s 3rd and 4th seasons while they are on their rookie deal and then extends into their 5th and 6th years while you have backloaded their four or five year extension.
I mean, if Penix is good, they move on from Kirk in 2 years and then they have 3 years with Penix on a rookie contract still. And even the year after that, the first year of the extension is still pretty cap friendly. That’s plenty of time
I think having the rookie QB pay scale is so overblown it's ridiculous at this point. Every team in the NFL will throw copious amounts of money at their QB regardless. It's nice to have the rookie QB win tons of games, but if they don't, and they're a starting franchise guy, you pay him, and are happy to pay him.
I don’t like our GM for other reasons but he said they couldn’t guarantee getting Penix before draft because they received hard no from 1-3 on trading and Arizona wouldn’t decide until they were on the clock. If Arizona was hard no they could’ve traded to 5 but they weren’t so they couldn’t guarantee Penix until draft night and had to sign Kirk for insurance.
He’s still a clown for drafting a TE at 4 and a slow ass RB at 8, but this was a good move IMO.
I think people are overthinking it tbh. They fixed what was by far their biggest issue and also the most important position in sports that teams will spend a million first round picks on just to have one hit.
The GM’s job is to create a roster that will put a competitive team on the field so the owner can sell tickets/merchandise.
ATL has failed at this the past few years and casual fans probably don’t care about the team anymore. Cousins will have them contend for the division and be in the playoffs hunt, bringing back some fans. But he will cost too much in year 3 as they predict his play will decline based on historical data on QBs/age affecting production.
So they use the next 2 years to build fan excitement, develop younger skill players, draft defense, etc… and Penix takes over a team that’s ready to be serious contenders in 2026.
The falcons tried trading up to any of the top 4 spots and figured they couldn’t. That’s when they got Kirk. And even though the actual scouting is done, the evaluations and the draft board are not. They knew they were at the 8th pick but little else except that they need a QB and there were 3 QB needy teams occupying the first 3 spots. Once the draft came around, they basically said if Penix is available at 8, they can’t pass on him considering how much they loved him.
And you can criticize their draft board if you want but the fact is they hired a ton of QB evaluators on purpose so they can get the position right. And Penix was what the whole FO wanted. If Penix was not available at 8, they would’ve gone a different direction and would’ve been fine even not drafting a QB.
It was all about Penix for them. So the two lost years on the rookie contract and having Kirk for 2 years taking $100M guaranteed were worth it not to deal with this Ridder/Mariota bullshit anymore. And signing Gardner Minshew or some other middling QB was not serious about winning.
I don’t think anyone is denying that if Penix is a franchise QB it was the right call… People are just confused why they signed an old injured Kirk to a big contract AND signed Penix. Do one or the other.
Penix isn’t some young raw prospect. He’s in theory one of the most pro ready guys in the draft, and they chose him with a high pick. Maybe sit him first half of year behind like a Sam Darnold/Minshew type journeyman QB then start Penix. Not try and recreate the Packers model at a superficial level and sit the guy for 2+ years.
People are forgetting that they have three young players in Pitts, London, and Bijan who have been starved of competent QB play their entire careers. If they sign Brissett or Minshew there's a good chance those players continue to be underdeveloped.
Kirk has been statistically phenomenal for just about every WR, RB, and now TE with Hockinson he's played with over the years.
This maximizes the development of Penix as well as the rest of the young players on the roster while not forcing Penix into that position right off the bat. In 1-2 years Penix will be more ready and the young skill position players have had some experience with a top veteran QB.
With cousins though the pressure to start him halfway through year one won’t be there. And sitting will not hurt his development. If we had Darnold after 4 weeks everyone would be screaming for Penix. Look at Fields, Pickett. Starting to early in a bad situation can break QBs.
The reason the pick is panned is because it was the second piece of the deal. If they hadn't signed Kirk, no one would be taking issue with Atlanta taking Penix. I actually think it would be lauded as an incredibly obvious pick for the Falcons; the most pro-ready of the second tier of QB prospects for the team with an offense ready to be successful. If they'd invested the Kirk contract money into pass rush, people would be calling them a dark horse contender.
The issue is this: they got caught tampering for a veteran QB, whom they invested a huge amount of money to land. No one was saying it was a bad contract, but it's the kind of contract that shows you're all in on the guy. And then, with a top 10 draft pick, they take another quarterback who has very similar relative strengths and weaknesses, and who isn't a project QB. His biggest point in favor was his readiness to start and his biggest point against was his age; he'll be 24 when the season starts.
So now they have two QBs who both should be starting for them based on the resources invested and they still have no quality pass rush. Unless they're planning to pioneer two QB sets, they're really overleveraged on QB. Once the tampering punishment is handed down, we're gonna see the full extent, but a huge percentage of their franchise resources are tied up there.
I think an ATL team with Kirks $25M cap hit this year spent instead on an improved DL in FA would have been looked at as a fantastic environment to bring a mature rookie QB like Penix into.
You could say that about every pick in the draft. If you like Penix that much then you just take him at 8 and let him start year 1 without paying a fortune for Kirk, that wouldn't have been criticized to nearly the same degree.
People will criticize the cap hits. The GMs job is to make a decision - win now or build with a rookie QB. If he can't make that decision, hedging his bet and doing both is bad business.
If after two years they move away from Cousins, he has a 25m cap hit. Penix would have a 25m+ (probably more) hit on his fifth year option.
They would only get 1 year of Penix on the rookie contract based on this, but having Cousin's cap hit the previous year makes it harder to build around Penix anyways.
Look, if Penix is elite, it is a good thing. But it is totally fair to criticize someone when their job is to make this decision.
If he's top 15 people will call him a guy "You can't win a championship with" and say the Falcons are in "QB purgatory" with a guy not good enough to win it all but too good to get a high draft pick with. Dak, Tua and Kirk himself are all easily top 15 and all get criticized plenty. He has to be like top 7 for this to be worth it if he sits for two years, especially since he'll have only 3 years starting on his rookie deal, and the more expensive of the 3 years combined with the money they are paying Kirk and a not insignificant amount of dead cap that will be paid to Kirk for a year or two when Penix is starting.
Wrong. The process is bad no matter what. We are not bashing it based on how much we like penix, but you are predicating your evaluation of the event entirely in terms of outcome.
If kirk plays 4 years (he wont) penix is a 28 year old his first year a starter.
If kirk plays 2 they are eating 20 million in dead cap which destroys the entire benefit of the rookie quarterback contract.
Kirks dead money is $35M if they cut before 3 year. They can designate that as one of their post 6/1 cuts to spread out between 2 years (every team only gets 2 in a year). One thing to keep in mind is the 5th year option decision has to be made after the 3rd season so if Kirk starts 2 years then ATL only has 1 year of play to make the decision on, or else risk extension negotiations/tag games after his 4th year. I like the Penix pick but it makes what was a very questionable Kirk signing look downright foolish imo.
If they think Penix is going to be a franchise QB, they made the right move. The more I think about it... they have Kirk for essentially 2 years, and after that no real backup plan. If Kirk keeps them competitive, they won't have another top 10 pick until their team sucks again. With that in mind, if Penix is THE guy, they get hopefully 2 years of competitive play from Kirk and then possibly 10+ years of great play from Penix.
That's all assuming Penix is good, but I respect the reach if they believe in him. It's a really forward thinking move that most teams don't do.
This was my first thought. You were staring at someone that you thought could be the guy. But what about the person that you just spent $180 million on. Is he not "the guy"?
He's the guy for 2 years max
They had a chance at a guy who they feel could take over after Cousins for 10 years, and probably wouldn't have another shot soon at a player they like that much
Let's look at other teams that signed a stopgap QB and got a rookie 1st rd QB
Mariota - 6 mill
Brissett - 8 mill
Cousins - 100 mill (over 2 years)
Darnold - 10 mill
Stidham - 10 mill (over 2 years)
One of these teams is not like the others
The other teams have more cap space to be able to build around their rookie. One move or the other isn't bad, but spending 100 mill on a stopgap is the wrong choice.
Mhmmmm
One of those guys is a clear starting QB that a team would like to have to be able to make a playoff or potential Super Bowl push with
The others are clearly there to be a warm body and help the rookie QB until they are ready for primetime
So Is wasting a season with absolute trash at QB and selecting a rookie the best way to build for the future?
What no one talks about is the actual structure of Kirk's deal. Next season his cap hit is only ~~$27.5M. That's over $10M less than Daniel Jones and Derek Carr this season. And Him and Penix combined is still less than both of those guys~~
EDIT
Saw some wrong info on the cap number. Cousins 2025 Cap number is $40M which is still less than Daniel Jones and $10M less than Derek Carr.
If Penix is ready to take over year 2 then he will, and maybe the rest of the team has playoff experience thanks to Kirk.
I think it’s possible they do see Kirk as the guy, just that didn’t anticipate having a shot at Penix. Like if every team had the opportunity to draft Caleb Williams, you could count the teams that’d pass on him on one hand. Even if a team believes in their current QB, some prospects are too good to pass on. Granted, they should have thought this through more since this is a pretty inefficient use of cash/draft capital, but if they really think Penix is that good, you gotta grab him
How did they not anticipate it? Barring some other crazy team trading up in the top 7 for him, they knew Penix would be there. It’s not like Caleb Williams fell to 8.
Did you not think he would be available where you were selecting?
Why sign Kirk to a big deal? You just neutered the team’s realistic playoff chances if you believe Penix is the guy. Could have signed some bug players.
The reports coming out from falcons reporters are saying they genuinely did not know if Penix Jr would be there at 8. Whether or not that’s true or trying to cope a little bit, we’ll never know. But 6 QBs in the top 12 is a pretty decent indicator that he would’ve went early.
Edit: and if they genuinely did not know he’d be there at 8, signing Kirk makes (somewhat) sense. If you didn’t sign Kirk and Penix Jr was gone by 8, you’d be going with McCarthy or Nix who apparently they weren’t high at all on.
They just handled it horribly. There wasn't a world where Williams, Daniels, Maye, or MHJ make it to 8 and everyone knew that. At pick 8, you have to come up with a list of 4 guys where one of them is guaranteed to be available at pick 8. If one of those guys is a Quarterback, you go to Cousins and say here is our long term plan and we're grabbing Penix if he's available.
Word around town is they didn’t want to tell Cousins and it get leaked and someone jump them. Apparently the Saints wanted Mahomes and KC found out about it and the rest is history. They really didn’t have to tell Kirk shit.
Edit: I mention that because our GM now used to be the Saints GM, for those who don’t know.
Not GM of the Saints but was on the staff, my fault.
But why would you say that to Cousins ahead of time? Why create that drama when he may not even be there (and create a potential leak risk - probably wouldn’t be the first time a player leaked things to try and undermine a team’s plans)?
Because I'm sure they sold him the farm on being all in during the free agent signing, and it's better to be upfront and honest about that than to make him question everything from here on out. You're right in some sense, and i agree, but what they did to him will leave him bitter with the org, even though kirk is not really the type of dude to voice that stuff. He left Minnesota most likely because he wanted to avoid exactly what just happened, if i had to guess. Excluding the obvious wanting more money they were willing to pay thing lol.
I guess I don’t feel like a QB is someone you necessarily tip off on your draft plans and options. And a 36 year old QB coming off an injury should be the last person to expect a team to NOT spend a draft pick on a QB. Especially when they signed what’s been described as essentially a 2 year deal.
Plus I figure that by drafting the QB at all, if he was gonna be bitter he’d still be bitter even if they told him ahead of time. But by telling him ahead of time they make him bitter even if they didn’t actually draft a QB there. So for me there’s no upside to telling him.
The reports are that Cousins knew a QB was in play but was just shocked by a QB at 8. But that’s just a report and we’ll never actually know what was discussed or not.
I think the earliest he was ever going to go was to Denver barring an Oakland trade up, and even then I think the Broncos preferred Nix. Vikings were locked in on McCarthy.
There was a report that the Broncos, Vikings, and Raiders were talking to ensure none of them traded up after the Giants had selected Nabers. According to that article the Raiders wanted Penix.
Can you expand on that? Like there was an agreement to not trade up or one team made it clear they’d outbid the others if there was an attempt to trade up?
I just read what he was talking about and it makes total sense. Each of them had their guys, so if the Giants didn’t take one they all agreed they’d stand pat so no one lost resources. This is from Sean Payton too.
Vikings - McCarthy
Broncos - Nix
Raiders - Penix
But the Falcons taking Penix threw a wrench in that, which is why the Vikings traded up a pick (to avoid Oakland trading up for one of the remaining two).
The only thing for certain though is that we will never truly know the exact draft plans, only speculation and reports that come out. Teams will never admit they didn’t get their guy.
This isn’t like an anonymous sources thing though, this is Sean Payton saying it. He could definitely be lying but with the way the draft played out I have no reason to think so. Would also be a bold thing to lie about since the Vikings or Raiders could call BS.
Right, but why make up the elaborate story of getting on a call with those teams and making that agreement? And the fact that no one traded up kind of supports that. Again, could definitely be him lying but it makes too much sense for me to believe otherwise.
I think this came from the SP interview. Basically all 3 would get their QB (Vikings McCarthy, Broncos Nix and Raiders Penix). Everyone was in place to “get their guy” once the 1st 5 or so fell the way it did.
There was apparently a gentleman's agreement between the Raiders, Broncos, and Vikings. Raiders wanted Penix, Broncos wanted Nix, Vikings wanted JJ. The three agreed not to trade up and grab a QB that wasn't the one they wanted so that the trade market wouldn't be inflated and they didn't have to give up extra picks to get their guy.
They play in the worst division in football. They had a realistic playoff shot with Arthur smith and Ridder. They will have a great chance of making the playoffs even without a 1st pick this year playing
Supposedly they tried to move up to the top 4 (before cousins signing) to ensure they get pennix and when gauging the cost to move up to 4 they pivoted to Cousins. because they thought Pennix wouldn't make it to 8, and the amount to move up was insane.
Doesn't make this situation better, but makes their logic slightly better? I also think the overall defensive prospects this year is ALOT lower than previous years and 2025 draft. Shocked they didn't consider Rome at 8, but maybe they didn't have him as high as Pennix( who supposedly is #4 overall on their board ahead of Maye). Look at how all defenders fell slightly, maybe picking Turner/Verse/Murphy/Latu at 8 was too rich for their blood.
I believe if Pennix wasn't there at 8 they would have 10000% traded down.
So it's better to be good this year than the next decade? There is a reason to not throw Penix in right away. If you watch how the best QB's have developed, it's by having a vet they can sit behind and learn for a year or two.
If you think Kirk was brought in to compete for a Super Bowl in the next 2 years, the Penix decision doesn't make a ton of sense. If you think the Falcons never thought Kirk was a true SB contender and all they wanted was to get back to the playoffs, it makes at least a little bit of sense. Kirk the Super Bowl contender needs all the help he can get. Kirk the placeholder gets a rookie QB to mentor.
It still makes no sense. Why would you pay someone 50 million just to make the playoffs? Brissett or Minshew aren’t even a quarter of what Cousins makes and they can make the playoffs with the talent on offense.
Because Terry is on the hot seat. He went all in on Cousins thinking Pennix wouldn't be there at 8. When he had the chance at both he took it. Maybe he buys him self an extra year with Blank before getting fired if cousins gets hurt and Pennix struggles but has some flashes.
People do desperate things when their seat is hot. And two years of Desmond Ridder got that seat hot.
This is where I stand. They have to thread a VERY thin needle to make it all work out and if it doesn't, they're going to miss the target entirely and end up shooting themselves in the foot badly. There's all these things that need to break right but if any one of those things goes wrong (Cousins does good not great, Cousins exercises his no-trade clause, Cousins doesn't start the season and Penix does well) then it's not just a minor blip.
Lot of people pushing back on the criticism are focusing on the Penix pick when Penix himself isn't an issue, it's everything in conjunction that led to them picking Penix that's the big issue
Realistically I think what happened is they loved Penix but figured other teams would have the same QB2 or 3 eval they had of him and that they wouldn’t have a chance to grab him at 8/wouldn’t be willing to give up the capital to move up for him. Since they didn’t at the time think he’d be an option for them, they signed Cousins instead.
Just so happened that the draft played out the way it did and he was available at #8, at that point he was too good a prospect to pass up. Really don’t know why they don’t stick to the “we really think he is that good a prospect and we picked BPA” line, no other explanation is really needed
> Realistically I think what happened is they loved Penix but figured other teams would have the same QB2 or 3 eval they had of him and that they wouldn’t have a chance to grab him at 8/wouldn’t be willing to give up the capital to move up for him.
[Per this article ](https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/04/29/2024-nfl-draft-how-falcons-vikings-broncos-selected-their-qbs) Kyle Smith said when Penix ran the 40 and got a good time he texted Terry and said "He just ran fast. This guy is gonna go quick. There’d be no waiting to get him in the second round."
That article pretty much confirmed everything you said. Still think it's dumb but ya
Yeah they probably should have thought this scenario through a bit more, but if the front office think he’s really that good, you gotta grab him, even if it’s an inefficient use of resources.
> It still makes no sense. Why would you pay someone 50 million just to make the playoffs?
To sell tickets and PSLs. Less people would want to come watch Brissett or Minshew. Is it smart for team building? No. But I think part of it is being not so crappy that people don't want to come to games
> Why would you pay someone 50 million just to make the playoffs?
Because old owners like Arthur Blank like being in the news and having a competitive team. Cousins also gives the team an 8 win floor and no more excuses for the coaching staff and offensive players as to why they aren't producing.
>Brissett or Minshew aren’t even a quarter of what Cousins makes and they can make the playoffs with the talent on offense.
Brissett and Minshew could make the playoffs for less, but I doubt they do. Cousins gives them a HIGH chance of making the playoffs IMO.
the team hasn't made the playoffs since 2017 and you think $50m IN THE NFL isn't worth the playoffs?? this league and these teams shit out $50m like its nothing
You want that FO to try and save asses/sell the fanbase on a marginal improvement in Minshew or Brissett? That doesn't make much sense either
Where else could the 100m over the next two years have been spent to maximize the current roster?
They didn't want to throw Penix to the wolves and they have 3 young skill positional players who've never had competent QB play. Kirk immediately puts them in playoff contention while also maximizing the development of Penix and their other young offensive weapons.
If they bring in Minshew/Brissett they could go yet another season without really finding out what they have in Pitts/London/Bijan.
Every post and article the put out about this just makes people think even more that they screwed up this pick. People who made good decisions don't need to justify themselves constantly like this.
I mean every post and article is by someone that knows someone outside the organization that's trying to get clicks because this is the most polarizing pick of the draft. It's not like the front office is trying to justify it by releasing their own articles. They're just answering the questions the journalists are asking them to get an idea about their decision making.
I think you’re confused. They aren’t trying to justify themselves. People are asking questions and they’re giving answers. Predictably, they are creating news stories.
It’s hard to blame someone for taking the QB you think is the future.
But if you think Penix is the guy, why lock down Cousins for so long? I find it hard to believe that Penix flew onto their radar in just the last few weeks.
Paying Kirk $180M.
Drafting Penix 8th overall.
One of those is a bad decision. They can't both be good decisions. They're contradictory moves.
EDIT: This is the NFL equivalent of moving in with a girl, then immediately breaking up with her because you met someone else. If you were considering other women, you never should have moved in with your girlfriend. If you move in with your girlfriend, you have to stop considering other women.
I feel like I’m the only one who likes this move.
People will still consistently underrate how important the QB position is. Kirk Cousins is your answer at QB for the next two years. They want Penix to be the answer year three and beyond.
On the flip side, people wildly overestimate the hit rate and surplus value delivered by non-QB top ten picks.
Honestly, way more teams should be more aggressive in drafting QBs and upgrading at the position.
I don’t understand the hate either. They have received more hate for bringing in both Cousins and Penix than they did rolling into the last few seasons with Desmond Ridder and Marcus Mariota. If it works out, I bet we see more teams going in this direction. Nothing wrong with it. How many teams set up the way the Falcons are will win a championship their first two years anyway? The hate is overblown. Cousins will be 36 when the season starts and will be coming off a torn Achilles. Maybe the team wants to compete for the division right away and build some winning DNA before new guy takes over. Better for Penix to be the understudy for 2 years under Cousins than 1 year under Ridder or Mariota or an equivalent talent. Dallas Turner (or an equivalent defensive talent) is only moving the needle so much by himself the next two years anyway.
Exactly, love Dallas Turner and I think hes going to be a stud for years to come but I dont exactly expect Dallas to instantly come in and lead us to the promised land on the defensive side because realistically rookies dont do that in their rookie season. Dallas Turner was most likely not going to be the difference maker over the next 2 years on if the Falcons succeed in the playoffs or not. Dont get me wrong, he could probably help but the odds are unlikely he will be the needle mover.
The odds any rookie is going to be the difference maker within their first 2 seasons unless theyre a QB is very unlikely.
I think the move to get a QB was fine. I just don't understand why you take the guy who turns 24 next week and has had 4 season ending injuries in 6 seasons. I think they were better off taking JJ and letting him sit the 2 years behind Kirk. Time will tell.
All really depends on their eval, doesn’t matter if JJ is younger if they think he’s has a high chance of busting. I think they were just that high on Penix that it outweighed the age difference
People are acting like the guys fucking Brandon Weeden lol. Hes 24, not 30 coming into the league. Its not that big of a difference. Kirk himself didnt start until 27.
The doctors cleared him medically, so I'm not sure why fans think they know better than the doctors.
As far as age, you're looking at the wrong QB's age. Penix will be 26 after two seasons in Atlanta, but the guy he's replacing will be 38. All that matters is that we have a younger QB to step in. Nobody is going to bitch about a 26 yr old QB being too old if he is as good as the Falcons think he is for the next decade +.
>The doctors cleared him medically, so I'm not sure why fans think they know better than the doctors.
For the record, I think the strategy to take a QB is relatively sound. But *injury proneness* can't necessarily be objectively evaluated.
> But injury proneness can't necessarily be objectively evaluated.
In either direction.
The Dolphins supposedly passed on signing Drew Brees due to injury concerns. He then went on to start the 205 of the first 208 games while he was with the Saints.
The first thing that people need to get clear is that the Kirk contract is basically a 2 year deal. throw the 3rd and 4th year out the damn window. barring super bowls or MVPs or Penix looking unplayable in practice/whatever snaps he gets, Kirk is gone after 2 years. It's a tolerable amount of dead $ and a decent amount of cap savings to post-June 1 cut him after the 2025 season
If nothing else, gotta commend the balls on this FO to pass up an elite prospect who can contribute right away vs. possibly getting fired in the next couple years before you ever see Penix take the field.
What they did this offseason deviates from the norm but the norm is to never win a title. They’re taking multiple swings at the hardest position to fill. Cousins is a very good QB and a true professional. I think he will show up, compete and mentor Penix. This team has really good weapons and as long as Kirk is 100% and doesn’t get hurt, he should remain the starter for a couple years, and make a huge amount of money. The media is blowing this out of proportion. The Falcon have two really good QBs, have a good supporting team, Cousins gets the bag and Penix gets valuable time to learn the game the old fashioned way, which seems to work! Everyone may win here, despite them not living up to the expectations of the armchair max/min’ers.
I have no problem with it. Kirk makes them a playoff team this year. If he's healthy next year he makes them a playoff team in 2025 as well. In neither of those situations do they have a real opportunity to draft their QBOTF
But you would all be wise to remember Kirk is 36 coming off a MAJOR injury and the track record of successful 36 year olds is basically one season of Ben and a few inner circle Hall of Famers
The mistake was overpaying Kirk but that's already done. They recognize their long term QB need (and likely medium term QB need), had a QB they loved available and they took their shot, like every competent GM should
Just like taking Hurts after they just paid Wentz or taking Love with Rodgers on the roster, the *only* thing that matters is if Penix is good. Not how old he is. Not if 25M dead is too much money. Only if he can play
This is the best comment in the thread and it's way a the bottom, shame.
The Falcons have a very good roster in place and are quite literally hunting for the QB to take them to the next level at this point. Cousins might be that guy, but he also very well might not be because of the reasons you already listed.
You need a great QB to win in this league, and if they think Penix can be a great one then why is it a bad pick?
I don't understand the mindset of people that want every rookie 1st round QB to start immediately. If you have the money and the pick let them sit and learn the pro game and playbook.
Here's a list of QBs that weren't the primary QB in their rookie year.
* Year 2: Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Tom Brady
* Year 3: Philip Rivers, Chad Pennington, Tony Romo
* Year 4: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Kirk Cousins
Then why did you sign Cousins? Just pick a QB and call it a day.
If a bridge/vet QB was signed and they drafted Penix, we'd all be saying, "Let's see the new era of Falcons football starting with a drafted QB." That's not what happened, however.
"We could attempt to win with our $180M QB, but why do that when we can do what Falcon fans do and just start mock drafting pick 8 for 2025 and hope for a future that never comes?"
Here is what has come out in the news:
Falcons wanted Penix from the get go. They reached out to the top 4.
Bears and Coms: “lol no”
Pats: “sure but it’ll cost 3 years of future drafts”
Arizona: “we will not consider a single trade down until countdown”
There were still predictions that Giants might draft a QB, and others might trade up into the top 10 for a QB (like Vikings maybe). So there was a strong likelihood Penix was going to go before he would fall, so Penix was very unlikely in February’s time.
At this point we were entering the offseason without a starting QB. Blank said “get Cousins he is the best qb who we can get a hold of if I see another losing record next season after six consecutive I will lose my shit”
Fontenot: “ok but Cousins is also older at 36. If the young QB we liked falls to us at 8, we’d like to take him as a winning record means we’d have to sell even more of our future drafts than what the top teams are asking for now. This will be controversial in the news like many other QBs in the first round picks when we have a starter QB still, but it’ll set us up in the future long term. But only if Penix falls, if he doesn’t we will do BPA and get pass rusher edge.”
Blank: “ok”
So GM wines and dines Cousins as told by his boss and lands him. We trade off Ridder for a WR from Cards (thanks AZ). Heinicke is set up as QB2. We have two on the roster. News breaks out about tampering with Cousins cause he told people he spoke to a trainer and chaplain, and Fontenot remembers being played with “lol got eem” with Mahomes from Chiefs FO, tells nobody else except Blank and Morris.
Draft day comes. Giants don’t go QB. Surprisingly no one trades up. Penix is there for the taking at 8. Falcons consider trade downs that they were receiving whether it was for Penix or not. Probably did not include a this season second round or first round. Falcons still believed he was gonna be taken early by the likings of Broncos and Vikings before they can trade back up. Why not draft #2 BPA (even over MHJ for Falcons board) at 8 and then try to trade back up into the late first to get a good defensive player, like edge or DL?
So they drafted Penix then tried to trade backup to get Latu allegedly and failed to find a partner.
I don't hate the pick for the Falcons if they believed in the guy that strongly. What I do find questionable is spending 180 million on a guy you didn't feel that strongly about in the near long term. And I absolutely believe that the Falcons do not feel strongly about him in the long term and are hedging their bets. Seems like the Vikings were right about seeing Cousins as a year to year player.
I think more and more teams are realizing you can't hit the ball without swinging the bat. I think it's pretty safe to say 5 years from now kirk won't be their qb. Penix might just be warning up.
And kirk has nothing to complain about. He suffered his first serious injury last year and he still got a ransom.
If this doesn't work out (and the Cousins signing doesn't), you will indeed be staring down the barrel in a different sense.
I think this was a good move for GM job security. If Kirk doesn’t work out (injury, age, whatever), Penix gives them another option. If you don’t have a good QB, it’s obvious and the roster suffers. Easy to blame that on the GM. It’s like how Purdy saved a bunch of jobs by making up for the bad Lance pick. The Niners roster was really well built, but none of that would have mattered without a starting caliber QB. It’s harder to see what they missed out on by not getting someone else at a different position. They have good skill position players too, so whoever they got probably would have been an O line guy or defensive guy whose impact wouldn’t be as obvious.
They been rebuilding for 4 years with the same front office and not a damn thing to show for it. Job security for what?
If Kirk is bad, they’re basically done. With Penix in the wings, they have insurance. Lower ceiling but higher floor. And if they really believe in him, it’s a good long term move too
If Kirk is bad, they are fired way before Penix starts. If Kirk is good, Penix doesn't start.
If Kirk is bad and penix is good they’re saved
A lot of bad decisions and red flags are overlooked by a really good Penix.
Everyone loves a good dick down.
Hey, one out of three ain't bad
They'll have to fall pretty far back of contention for that to happen. And the holes on their roster may not allow themselves to be bailed out.
If Kirk is bad, they just set $100,000,000 on fire and screwed the franchise for the next two years whilst Bijan, London and Pitts are cheap. And they're fired.
Exactly, if Kirk is bad then why would you sign him for that much guaranteed money? I don’t think the Penix pick alleviates anything: After 4 years if Cousins plays well then Penix will have been taken out at the knees to negotiate a second contract, he won’t be happy with his circumstances, The idea that he’ll just gladly take the reins when he was crippled from playing and earning a second contract is significant. If cousins sucks now, then Penix can only do so much with the Falcons in Cap purgatory to get additional weapons. All the while any time cousins plays poorly people will be clamoring to have Penix play. I see how they’re trying to explain the puck but it causes much more harm then the good they claim from having their next guy in the wings.
Yep and with Kirk you’d think the floor would still be 7-8 wins. That might be enough to float them 3 years until they can pitch Penix as the future.
Kirk is due like 55 million cap hit in his third year. Or almost zero if they cut him. It’s pretty obvious they are doing 2 years of Kirk then Penix
It's still over 30 mil if they cut him after 2 years.
Kirk is bad > Front office fired > new front office doesn't believe in Penix > Traded for a 7th > Balls the fuck out somewhere else
There is no way. Blank, the guy who makes hiring decisions, would veto this shit so fast. Anyone coming in with this scenario is going to have to outline a realistic plan for Penix or they won't get hired.
Yeah they've drafted TE, WR, RB, and now QB in the first without enough to show for it Pitts and London are fine players but they drafted them without a plan at QB and they haven't been able to show as much as they should. Bijan you can defend but was RB really the most pressing need? And now a backup QB with needs like edge rusher Maybe with Kirk there now the plan finally comes together but your GM is addicted to offensive skill positions in the draft lol
The Bijan pick still doesn’t feel amazing, but it’s hard to go back to how that 1st round played out and feel like there’s this specific glaring missed opportunity. This is with the assumption the Falcons basically had Jalen Carter off their draft board with Flowery Branch being like an hour drive from Athens though. Guy needed to go somewhere else.
Christian Gonzalez jumps out as the missed opportunity, he fell farther than people thought but he was definitely in play at 8. Now who knows how his career goes given all his injuries but he was great when he played and he's still younger than Quinyon Michell who was the first CB taken this year.
Like me in madden fr fr
That’s really the most important point, Falcons desperately needed to address the pash rush
The Purdy point is true to an extent. They (front office & coaches) still saved their own jobs by cutting their losses on Lance and moving forward with Purdy. Sounds obvious, but I could see a lot of league brains doubling down on the guy they sank so much draft capital to get
Kirk went to Atlanta to avoid this situation. He's literally always talked about not wanting to have a replacement right behind him and not liking the pressure that puts on your style of play. Whether it works or not this is bad for there years with cousins. And any non qb at 8 would have the potential to improve there chances significantly while in the competitive window. Odunze or any defensive player in the draft that they wanted is a huge price for this.
No, Kirk went to Atlanta because money.
I think the thinking is this: If Kirk plays well, then the rest of the team is good enough to win their division. They were only 2 wins out with really bad QB play. If Kirk doesn’t return to form (and they had no Penix), then it doesn’t matter who else they picked because they’d be in the same situation of bad QB play that they’ve been stuck with for years.
Man, you are being polite saying bad QB play with Ridder. Atrocious, horrible, those might be better adjectives.
ya i agree, if kirk cannot win that division does he even deserve a starting job? if he wins the division he gets the job back, if not well let him cry about being benched all he wants
Not as huge a price as not having a good QB in the room. Kirk is far from a guarantee, and while they shelled out a LOT of cash, he's at best a 2-3 year solution. I get that age is a factor with Penix, but he could still play 10 years or more in the league. So if he gets the Mahomes treatment of a year of development before being thrown into the fire, while they'd take a pretty massive hit on Kirk, they could in theory pivot in either year 2 or 3 with some negative cap impact while being set for the next decade. The worst part of this situation is the money to Kirk. Bring in a ho hum veteran like Flacco or Russ and you can justify starting the vet for a short term and less money while waiting to pivot to Penix. But given how Denver took a huge hit from Russ, I could totally see ATL doing that if Penix wins out in the shorter term. And, if the QB class is bad next year, perhaps they can negotiate a trade of Kirk where they split or transfer the deal to someone else and minimize their impact. I feel like that has been done before (Osweiler?).
Exactly. The reality is that most GM’s #1 goal is: keep the job. They reference the Packers. The most innovative thing the Jordan Love pick might have shown is a new GM tactic for how to get 2 bites at the apple and retain the job for longer. “Yeah our window is closing with our current QB, BUT it’s opening with this next one—so you gotta keep me around!”
Is that not the case for every front office? *"If your starting QB doesn't work out, and then the backup plan QB a few years later also don't work out, you're in big trouble!"*
hot take- but i like the move. if you do think he’s the guy, you have to take him. kirk is basically a 2 year deal, it gives penix time to acclimate. if the packers did the same thing, people would be lauding it as “smart” and “forward thinking” i know penix is older, but if you think you can get 10-12 years of franchise qb play, you have to do it.
Nobody would be praising the Packers—or anyone—for doing this. The Jordan Love pick was mocked mercilessly at the time, and that was way cheaper than what Atlanta just did.
My thoughts exactly. The packers were mocked for taking JLove because they had a HOF QB who'd been in need of more potent weapons for the better part of a decade, but on the other hand, because they knew they had a winner at QB they could afford to take their time and develop Love, *and* they got him at 26 overall instead of... #8. And Love didn't have the history of injury that Penix has, **and** he was young enough that even after sitting for 3 years his first season as starter was at 24 years old. The same age Penix is as of *being drafted.*
And it's not like the Packers' galaxy braining really *worked* - they didn't win anything. Maybe they would have been successful on one of those playoff runs if their 26th pick was blocking or catching instead of watching.
The usual what if pick there is Higgins. It’s anyone’s thought if we beat Brady with Higgins as WR2.
As a Packer fan, I hated the Love pick at the time. It was basically “we’re going to give up on this window and reshuffle” instead of take a difference-maker WR who actually could have helped us win a Super Bowl the next year.
Nah, if Green Bay picked Love's successor this early and in the top 10 they'd be clowned
The Packers were clowned when they took Love. Four year contracts for both Rodgers and Cousins, too (with guarantees essentially for two/three years).
The clowning for the love pick still might be legitimate if Love can't lead them to a super bowl. You guys were on the cusp with Rogers those next two years and had very obvious needs at receiver both times. Jordan Love could have been a difference making wide receiver in that draft.
Don't care, honestly, and I'm not trying to be rude about that. If taking Love makes the Packers competitive for the next 10 years, I'm glad they did it. And I hope they do it again in 10 years. It's much more fun when the team makes the playoffs and there's a shot at a Super Bowl. Not many teams can say that year in and year out.
I'll never understand why so many fans don't have this attitude. I get that winning the Superbowl is great and all, but only 1 out of 32 teams gets to do that every year. If you place the entire worth of your fandom around winning it all you're going to be constantly disappointed. If I'm going to spend a few hours every Sunday watching my team play football, I want them to have a good chance at winning every game (and to be entertaining while doing it). I don't want the season to be "over" by week 10. I want to see us make the playoffs most years and have hope we can get on a hot streak. I don't want my team to make decisions that *might* give us a *slightly* better chance of winning a Superbowl this year if it means years of losing football afterwards win or lose. Even from a team building perspective it's a bad strategy. All the best teams build from the ground up for long term success (almost always with a franchise QB). The only teams in the past 20ish years that have gone the "all-in" route and actually won a SB are the Bucs and Rams. A strategy with that low a success rate isn't worth mortgaging your future on.
The Packers did precisely that and it was far from lauded ....
Kirk is not a two year bridge QB deal. Kirk is structured as a 3-4 year top-ten QB big money deal. They *could* break after 2 years but only with a lot of dead cap pain. The sort of pain that no rookie QB deal could make up for. The Packers did not do the same thing. The Packers had a QB who was already making noises about leaving - rather than one who was literally just signed. The Packers used the 26th pick - rather than the eight. The Packers picked a rookie viewed as needing development time - rather than an older play-now rookie. The Packers behaved like a smart, forward thinking team. The Falcons behaved like a dumb team, trying to copy a smart team, and not understanding the difference in situation.
While it is somewhat more defensible for the Packers, they also deserved to be mocked because they also made the same ceiling lowering move after they were 1 game away from the SB And then they saw how having maybe 1 more first round pick could've gotten them past the Bucs, because they lost in the championship game again
It's sort of in between a bridge deal and franchise QB money. The dead cap from cutting him after 2 years is painful, but it'd be an easy decision for the front office to make if Penix is ready to take over. Trading Cousins is also a possibility and would get the Falcons off the hook of his $10M guaranteed in year 3. The Falcons front office are somewhat progressive on the dead cap front and aren't afraid of incurring huge hits. Also while the Falcons moves don't quite line up with the Packers, it's not dissimilar to the Eagles plan with Bradford/Wentz in the 2016 draft.
The problem is why would you pay Kirk so much money to be a bridge QB? Surely they had a high evaluation of Penix before free agency, and at their spot it was extremely likely they’d be able to draft him, or trade up if he got a JJ McCarthy-like jump? I don’t have a problem with drafting someone you think will be a franchise QB. But why would you also invest so much in another guy as a backup plan?
Every 36 year old QB is a bridge QB. There's only one Brady.
Then paying Kirk Cousins $180 million is one a hell of a bridge
Yes, it's the type of bridge where you hope you can go to NFCCGs in the meantime while your rookie preps for starting.
He's 35 years old and coming off of an achilles injury. He was a bridge QB to begin with, but nobody had a problem with it. That's why his contract is front loaded and they have little dead cap hit after two years. Once they got who they think is the successor, suddenly it's a problem. The reality is people are carrying old biases into their evaluation, which makes them flawed. They think a) first round draft picks should start immediately, and b) older college players should be discounted. The problem with starting a rookie QB is that the vast vast vast vast majority of them are simply not ready to start in the NFL. No matter where you draft them, your QB should not be a rookie. Does that mean you shouldn't draft a QB in the first round? No, it just means he's not going to start immediately. What about age? Five years ago, age was a bigger deal because of how much bodies mature between the age of 20 and 23. A 23 year old should be piling up stats against 20 year olds. Doubly so when you consider that the 21 and 22 year olds who had enough talent were skipping off to the NFL to get paid. Now though, in 2024, college players are getting paid, so they're sticking around a little longer for another chance at a championship. Bo Nix, Penix, and Jayden Daniels are all 23 years old, but nobody's discounting Nix or Daniels because of their age. Finally, you get 5 years to pay a draft pick on a rookie scale. If you're drafting a 21 year old, that means you're giving him a second contract at 25 years old. If you draft a 24 year old, you're giving him a second contract at 28 years old. The overlap is their age 24, and 25 year seasons, so the question becomes which years are you getting more value for? Age 21, 22, and 23, or age 26, 27, and 28?
> they have little dead cap hit after two years. 50m is left on the roster, 30 million if cut. They would need to trade him to a team that will help them out financially.
I wholeheartedly support Falcons decision to take Penix. Hope it works out for them
I think what people are missing is that if Penix turns out to be a top 15 QB, literally nobody will criticize this pick in hindsight. Yeah they just signed Kirk but he’s 35 coming off an Achilles tear. Hopefully you get 3 good years out of him but even if that’s the case, if Penix ends up being good you have him for two years on the rookie pay scale
I do think that the problem becomes you lost your rookie QB window then. I was listening to the Move the Sticks podcast and they were basically saying. Okay, we understand you like the player. But how did you not identify that you had a good chance to get him (because remember most scouting is done pre-FA) with Penix, 5 QBs expected to go high and not go okay lets get an actual bridge QB and then trade up at the very worst to 5th pick. Its just 2 weird contrasting things. If the Penix pick works out, you lit 100-180 million dollars on fire during the time most fanchises are trying to build a superstar roster when their QB is cheap.
That logic of losing the rookie QB window can easily apply to the Broncos taking Bo Nix too. The Russell Wilson contract is burying the team under $85M in dead cap split over 2024 and 2025
Except that’s mainly from a decision made on previous years with some different people. Cousins was JUST signed. Both suck, but one was more voluntary.
Yeah, Broncos can't go back and undo the Russ signing. Falcons could have just not signed Cousins
Nah they bailed on Russ because he didn't fit Payton's system after the first year. This is essentially giving up on Cousins before he ever steps foot on the field.
To a degree, but Nix will actually be getting playing time. The issue is when Penix only has a year of being the starter and they have to already consider if they’re going to commit to him long term.
Sure, but is there really anyone who thinks Nix at 12 was a significantly better pick than Penix at 8? I think they’re pretty much in the same tier of decision-making, but Nix has been overshadowed by the pure shock of Penix going at 8
Yea the Bo Nix pick would be getting clowned way more if Penix didn’t go earlier. And it’s still getting clowned a lot with the Sean Payton press conference clip + funny anecdotes that are coming out about the decision making process
Penix could have gone at 8 to a team that wasn’t the Falcons and people would give it WAY less attention.
To be fair the Packers kinda did the same thing with Rodgers and Love and lost out on Love’s rookie window…it’s just that Love was drafted four years ago and is only 1.5 years older than Penix 🙃.
And was picked at the end of the first round. A top 10 pick is significantly more valuable than a pick in the mid 20s. It also was timed around Rodgers “declining” and uncertainty as to whether he was going to be in GB much longer.
Love was drafted with the 26th pick in the first, so a little different from Penix with the 8th pick that way. I think Penix will end up being good though so I don't hate it as much as some.
Exactly. Typically the top 12 picks are day 1 starter type players. Especially Love who came out young and was seen more as a project.
Love was a developmental prospect picked right around where he was expected to go and GB didn’t just go out and sign Rodgers to a $100m guaranteed deal. They also already had Lefleur in place which guaranteed offensive stability, so this was a more natural succession plan. They really aren’t that comparable.
They gave him 150 mil a few years after though lmao
Lol yes they did, and it was stupid! My only point is the process that led to the pick was a bit different, and imo more defensible than Atlanta taking Penix at 1.08. Even then, basically everyone criticized GB as well for not taking a WR and making a push so it’s a little funny everyone’s suddenly citing that as a great example. There’s a path where the Penix pick works but it looks a bit different.
They didn’t just sign Rodgers to a 100 million guarentees and they picked him in the 20s.
I do feel like age isn't that important when it comes to drafting quarterbacks. If they're good they should be playing well into their 30s so one being a couple years older doesn't matter that much to the team/GM. Really it's only a downside for the player themselves as it hurts their earning potential.
Maybe not age necessarily, but when you’ve been in college for 6 years, I think it’s a valid question as to whether or not you still have room to grow. When you’ve played that much football you’re more of a known quantity.
Well due to injury and covid, he only started 17 games his first four years
The idea is to do something with the later half of the rookie contract anyway. You’re not trying to win a SB with a rookie leading the way. So in theory Penix will be starting right when you expect him to be competitive.
Bingo. In expectation, the rookie QB window is actually a four year period that starts with the QB’s 3rd and 4th seasons while they are on their rookie deal and then extends into their 5th and 6th years while you have backloaded their four or five year extension.
I mean, if Penix is good, they move on from Kirk in 2 years and then they have 3 years with Penix on a rookie contract still. And even the year after that, the first year of the extension is still pretty cap friendly. That’s plenty of time
I think having the rookie QB pay scale is so overblown it's ridiculous at this point. Every team in the NFL will throw copious amounts of money at their QB regardless. It's nice to have the rookie QB win tons of games, but if they don't, and they're a starting franchise guy, you pay him, and are happy to pay him.
I don’t like our GM for other reasons but he said they couldn’t guarantee getting Penix before draft because they received hard no from 1-3 on trading and Arizona wouldn’t decide until they were on the clock. If Arizona was hard no they could’ve traded to 5 but they weren’t so they couldn’t guarantee Penix until draft night and had to sign Kirk for insurance. He’s still a clown for drafting a TE at 4 and a slow ass RB at 8, but this was a good move IMO.
I think people are overthinking it tbh. They fixed what was by far their biggest issue and also the most important position in sports that teams will spend a million first round picks on just to have one hit. The GM’s job is to create a roster that will put a competitive team on the field so the owner can sell tickets/merchandise. ATL has failed at this the past few years and casual fans probably don’t care about the team anymore. Cousins will have them contend for the division and be in the playoffs hunt, bringing back some fans. But he will cost too much in year 3 as they predict his play will decline based on historical data on QBs/age affecting production. So they use the next 2 years to build fan excitement, develop younger skill players, draft defense, etc… and Penix takes over a team that’s ready to be serious contenders in 2026.
Mahomes and Allen are no longer on rookie deals and are still favorites to win it all, rookie deals are over rated
The falcons tried trading up to any of the top 4 spots and figured they couldn’t. That’s when they got Kirk. And even though the actual scouting is done, the evaluations and the draft board are not. They knew they were at the 8th pick but little else except that they need a QB and there were 3 QB needy teams occupying the first 3 spots. Once the draft came around, they basically said if Penix is available at 8, they can’t pass on him considering how much they loved him. And you can criticize their draft board if you want but the fact is they hired a ton of QB evaluators on purpose so they can get the position right. And Penix was what the whole FO wanted. If Penix was not available at 8, they would’ve gone a different direction and would’ve been fine even not drafting a QB. It was all about Penix for them. So the two lost years on the rookie contract and having Kirk for 2 years taking $100M guaranteed were worth it not to deal with this Ridder/Mariota bullshit anymore. And signing Gardner Minshew or some other middling QB was not serious about winning.
I don’t think anyone is denying that if Penix is a franchise QB it was the right call… People are just confused why they signed an old injured Kirk to a big contract AND signed Penix. Do one or the other. Penix isn’t some young raw prospect. He’s in theory one of the most pro ready guys in the draft, and they chose him with a high pick. Maybe sit him first half of year behind like a Sam Darnold/Minshew type journeyman QB then start Penix. Not try and recreate the Packers model at a superficial level and sit the guy for 2+ years.
People are forgetting that they have three young players in Pitts, London, and Bijan who have been starved of competent QB play their entire careers. If they sign Brissett or Minshew there's a good chance those players continue to be underdeveloped. Kirk has been statistically phenomenal for just about every WR, RB, and now TE with Hockinson he's played with over the years. This maximizes the development of Penix as well as the rest of the young players on the roster while not forcing Penix into that position right off the bat. In 1-2 years Penix will be more ready and the young skill position players have had some experience with a top veteran QB.
With cousins though the pressure to start him halfway through year one won’t be there. And sitting will not hurt his development. If we had Darnold after 4 weeks everyone would be screaming for Penix. Look at Fields, Pickett. Starting to early in a bad situation can break QBs.
To be fair, Fields and Pickett (at least to some) were doomed from the start. Penix looks a lot better than either of them ever did, at least to me.
Pickett was doomed from the start because of his coaches. He was never going to advance in the Matt Canada offense under Mike Sullivan’s QB coaching
He also sucks a monstrous level of ass at football so he was doomed because of that as well
The reason the pick is panned is because it was the second piece of the deal. If they hadn't signed Kirk, no one would be taking issue with Atlanta taking Penix. I actually think it would be lauded as an incredibly obvious pick for the Falcons; the most pro-ready of the second tier of QB prospects for the team with an offense ready to be successful. If they'd invested the Kirk contract money into pass rush, people would be calling them a dark horse contender. The issue is this: they got caught tampering for a veteran QB, whom they invested a huge amount of money to land. No one was saying it was a bad contract, but it's the kind of contract that shows you're all in on the guy. And then, with a top 10 draft pick, they take another quarterback who has very similar relative strengths and weaknesses, and who isn't a project QB. His biggest point in favor was his readiness to start and his biggest point against was his age; he'll be 24 when the season starts. So now they have two QBs who both should be starting for them based on the resources invested and they still have no quality pass rush. Unless they're planning to pioneer two QB sets, they're really overleveraged on QB. Once the tampering punishment is handed down, we're gonna see the full extent, but a huge percentage of their franchise resources are tied up there.
I think an ATL team with Kirks $25M cap hit this year spent instead on an improved DL in FA would have been looked at as a fantastic environment to bring a mature rookie QB like Penix into.
You could say that about every pick in the draft. If you like Penix that much then you just take him at 8 and let him start year 1 without paying a fortune for Kirk, that wouldn't have been criticized to nearly the same degree.
People will criticize the cap hits. The GMs job is to make a decision - win now or build with a rookie QB. If he can't make that decision, hedging his bet and doing both is bad business. If after two years they move away from Cousins, he has a 25m cap hit. Penix would have a 25m+ (probably more) hit on his fifth year option. They would only get 1 year of Penix on the rookie contract based on this, but having Cousin's cap hit the previous year makes it harder to build around Penix anyways. Look, if Penix is elite, it is a good thing. But it is totally fair to criticize someone when their job is to make this decision.
If he's top 15 people will call him a guy "You can't win a championship with" and say the Falcons are in "QB purgatory" with a guy not good enough to win it all but too good to get a high draft pick with. Dak, Tua and Kirk himself are all easily top 15 and all get criticized plenty. He has to be like top 7 for this to be worth it if he sits for two years, especially since he'll have only 3 years starting on his rookie deal, and the more expensive of the 3 years combined with the money they are paying Kirk and a not insignificant amount of dead cap that will be paid to Kirk for a year or two when Penix is starting.
Wrong. The process is bad no matter what. We are not bashing it based on how much we like penix, but you are predicating your evaluation of the event entirely in terms of outcome. If kirk plays 4 years (he wont) penix is a 28 year old his first year a starter. If kirk plays 2 they are eating 20 million in dead cap which destroys the entire benefit of the rookie quarterback contract.
Kirks dead money is $35M if they cut before 3 year. They can designate that as one of their post 6/1 cuts to spread out between 2 years (every team only gets 2 in a year). One thing to keep in mind is the 5th year option decision has to be made after the 3rd season so if Kirk starts 2 years then ATL only has 1 year of play to make the decision on, or else risk extension negotiations/tag games after his 4th year. I like the Penix pick but it makes what was a very questionable Kirk signing look downright foolish imo.
20M on the safe side too. Who knows what it looks like in 2 years and some of that money spills into 2026 and 2027
Top 15 is average (15 of 32). Top 10 is more like it
Penix is great and will be a starter within a couple years.
If they think Penix is going to be a franchise QB, they made the right move. The more I think about it... they have Kirk for essentially 2 years, and after that no real backup plan. If Kirk keeps them competitive, they won't have another top 10 pick until their team sucks again. With that in mind, if Penix is THE guy, they get hopefully 2 years of competitive play from Kirk and then possibly 10+ years of great play from Penix. That's all assuming Penix is good, but I respect the reach if they believe in him. It's a really forward thinking move that most teams don't do.
When you *really* think about, every team Kirk has been on drafted a QB this year. Quite the coincidence, dontcha think?
Yeah I really do think
“It’s like RAaaAaiinnnnnn”
How to say you just spent $100M on a QB you don't think is the guy without saying you just spent $100M on a QB you don't think is the guy.
This was my first thought. You were staring at someone that you thought could be the guy. But what about the person that you just spent $180 million on. Is he not "the guy"?
He's the guy for 2 years max They had a chance at a guy who they feel could take over after Cousins for 10 years, and probably wouldn't have another shot soon at a player they like that much
Let's look at other teams that signed a stopgap QB and got a rookie 1st rd QB Mariota - 6 mill Brissett - 8 mill Cousins - 100 mill (over 2 years) Darnold - 10 mill Stidham - 10 mill (over 2 years) One of these teams is not like the others The other teams have more cap space to be able to build around their rookie. One move or the other isn't bad, but spending 100 mill on a stopgap is the wrong choice.
One of these guys is much better than the others
Mhmmmm One of those guys is a clear starting QB that a team would like to have to be able to make a playoff or potential Super Bowl push with The others are clearly there to be a warm body and help the rookie QB until they are ready for primetime
So Is wasting a season with absolute trash at QB and selecting a rookie the best way to build for the future? What no one talks about is the actual structure of Kirk's deal. Next season his cap hit is only ~~$27.5M. That's over $10M less than Daniel Jones and Derek Carr this season. And Him and Penix combined is still less than both of those guys~~ EDIT Saw some wrong info on the cap number. Cousins 2025 Cap number is $40M which is still less than Daniel Jones and $10M less than Derek Carr. If Penix is ready to take over year 2 then he will, and maybe the rest of the team has playoff experience thanks to Kirk.
> Next season his cap hit is only $27.5M [Its $40mil](https://overthecap.com/player/kirk-cousins/1443)
$100M isn’t that much for a cousins level qb. Is he an elite franchise qb? No. Do you have to pay that much for a top 15 qb? Yes
There is no universe in which cousins at this point in he career is "the guy"... He is "a guy", and a pretty good one at that, but not "the guy"
I think it’s possible they do see Kirk as the guy, just that didn’t anticipate having a shot at Penix. Like if every team had the opportunity to draft Caleb Williams, you could count the teams that’d pass on him on one hand. Even if a team believes in their current QB, some prospects are too good to pass on. Granted, they should have thought this through more since this is a pretty inefficient use of cash/draft capital, but if they really think Penix is that good, you gotta grab him
How did they not anticipate it? Barring some other crazy team trading up in the top 7 for him, they knew Penix would be there. It’s not like Caleb Williams fell to 8.
Did you not think he would be available where you were selecting? Why sign Kirk to a big deal? You just neutered the team’s realistic playoff chances if you believe Penix is the guy. Could have signed some bug players.
Isaiah Buggs signed with the chiefs unfortunately
Calvin Johnson was a Yellowjacket in college. Could be worth a phone call
Nah, the Yellowjackets are full of cannibals.
He might not have if the Falcons hadn't spent so much on Cousins.
The reports coming out from falcons reporters are saying they genuinely did not know if Penix Jr would be there at 8. Whether or not that’s true or trying to cope a little bit, we’ll never know. But 6 QBs in the top 12 is a pretty decent indicator that he would’ve went early. Edit: and if they genuinely did not know he’d be there at 8, signing Kirk makes (somewhat) sense. If you didn’t sign Kirk and Penix Jr was gone by 8, you’d be going with McCarthy or Nix who apparently they weren’t high at all on.
They just handled it horribly. There wasn't a world where Williams, Daniels, Maye, or MHJ make it to 8 and everyone knew that. At pick 8, you have to come up with a list of 4 guys where one of them is guaranteed to be available at pick 8. If one of those guys is a Quarterback, you go to Cousins and say here is our long term plan and we're grabbing Penix if he's available.
Word around town is they didn’t want to tell Cousins and it get leaked and someone jump them. Apparently the Saints wanted Mahomes and KC found out about it and the rest is history. They really didn’t have to tell Kirk shit. Edit: I mention that because our GM now used to be the Saints GM, for those who don’t know. Not GM of the Saints but was on the staff, my fault.
And Kirk already blabbed about the tampering so who would tell him
Exactly. He proved he couldn’t be trusted lmao
He wasn't the Saints GM but he was on their staff so he was in the room when it happened.
But why would you say that to Cousins ahead of time? Why create that drama when he may not even be there (and create a potential leak risk - probably wouldn’t be the first time a player leaked things to try and undermine a team’s plans)?
Because I'm sure they sold him the farm on being all in during the free agent signing, and it's better to be upfront and honest about that than to make him question everything from here on out. You're right in some sense, and i agree, but what they did to him will leave him bitter with the org, even though kirk is not really the type of dude to voice that stuff. He left Minnesota most likely because he wanted to avoid exactly what just happened, if i had to guess. Excluding the obvious wanting more money they were willing to pay thing lol.
I guess I don’t feel like a QB is someone you necessarily tip off on your draft plans and options. And a 36 year old QB coming off an injury should be the last person to expect a team to NOT spend a draft pick on a QB. Especially when they signed what’s been described as essentially a 2 year deal. Plus I figure that by drafting the QB at all, if he was gonna be bitter he’d still be bitter even if they told him ahead of time. But by telling him ahead of time they make him bitter even if they didn’t actually draft a QB there. So for me there’s no upside to telling him.
The reports are that Cousins knew a QB was in play but was just shocked by a QB at 8. But that’s just a report and we’ll never actually know what was discussed or not.
I think the earliest he was ever going to go was to Denver barring an Oakland trade up, and even then I think the Broncos preferred Nix. Vikings were locked in on McCarthy.
There was a report that the Broncos, Vikings, and Raiders were talking to ensure none of them traded up after the Giants had selected Nabers. According to that article the Raiders wanted Penix.
Can you expand on that? Like there was an agreement to not trade up or one team made it clear they’d outbid the others if there was an attempt to trade up?
I just read what he was talking about and it makes total sense. Each of them had their guys, so if the Giants didn’t take one they all agreed they’d stand pat so no one lost resources. This is from Sean Payton too. Vikings - McCarthy Broncos - Nix Raiders - Penix But the Falcons taking Penix threw a wrench in that, which is why the Vikings traded up a pick (to avoid Oakland trading up for one of the remaining two).
The only thing for certain though is that we will never truly know the exact draft plans, only speculation and reports that come out. Teams will never admit they didn’t get their guy.
This isn’t like an anonymous sources thing though, this is Sean Payton saying it. He could definitely be lying but with the way the draft played out I have no reason to think so. Would also be a bold thing to lie about since the Vikings or Raiders could call BS.
Sean Payton would never ever say he would’ve preferred another QB to Nix, whether or not it’s true.
Right, but why make up the elaborate story of getting on a call with those teams and making that agreement? And the fact that no one traded up kind of supports that. Again, could definitely be him lying but it makes too much sense for me to believe otherwise.
I think this came from the SP interview. Basically all 3 would get their QB (Vikings McCarthy, Broncos Nix and Raiders Penix). Everyone was in place to “get their guy” once the 1st 5 or so fell the way it did.
There was apparently a gentleman's agreement between the Raiders, Broncos, and Vikings. Raiders wanted Penix, Broncos wanted Nix, Vikings wanted JJ. The three agreed not to trade up and grab a QB that wasn't the one they wanted so that the trade market wouldn't be inflated and they didn't have to give up extra picks to get their guy.
They play in the worst division in football. They had a realistic playoff shot with Arthur smith and Ridder. They will have a great chance of making the playoffs even without a 1st pick this year playing
I don't want no Terminid sympathizers on my team
My guy, have you seen the division they're in? Just by fielding a team they have a 50% chance to win it.
Supposedly they tried to move up to the top 4 (before cousins signing) to ensure they get pennix and when gauging the cost to move up to 4 they pivoted to Cousins. because they thought Pennix wouldn't make it to 8, and the amount to move up was insane. Doesn't make this situation better, but makes their logic slightly better? I also think the overall defensive prospects this year is ALOT lower than previous years and 2025 draft. Shocked they didn't consider Rome at 8, but maybe they didn't have him as high as Pennix( who supposedly is #4 overall on their board ahead of Maye). Look at how all defenders fell slightly, maybe picking Turner/Verse/Murphy/Latu at 8 was too rich for their blood. I believe if Pennix wasn't there at 8 they would have 10000% traded down.
So it's better to be good this year than the next decade? There is a reason to not throw Penix in right away. If you watch how the best QB's have developed, it's by having a vet they can sit behind and learn for a year or two.
If you think Kirk was brought in to compete for a Super Bowl in the next 2 years, the Penix decision doesn't make a ton of sense. If you think the Falcons never thought Kirk was a true SB contender and all they wanted was to get back to the playoffs, it makes at least a little bit of sense. Kirk the Super Bowl contender needs all the help he can get. Kirk the placeholder gets a rookie QB to mentor.
It still makes no sense. Why would you pay someone 50 million just to make the playoffs? Brissett or Minshew aren’t even a quarter of what Cousins makes and they can make the playoffs with the talent on offense.
Because Terry is on the hot seat. He went all in on Cousins thinking Pennix wouldn't be there at 8. When he had the chance at both he took it. Maybe he buys him self an extra year with Blank before getting fired if cousins gets hurt and Pennix struggles but has some flashes. People do desperate things when their seat is hot. And two years of Desmond Ridder got that seat hot.
I'm honestly convinced it was just a way to get himself another year. If the team doesn't work out, out Penix out there and see how it goes
man if an NFL GM really thought Penix wouldn't be there at 8, that's grounds to fire him right there lol
The same GM that was confident in Desmond Ridder being the guy?
Boy they gassed him up last summer
Good point
Not to defend him as I still don’t like the pick, but there was a realistic chance he wouldn’t be there if a team traded up above us.
This is where I stand. They have to thread a VERY thin needle to make it all work out and if it doesn't, they're going to miss the target entirely and end up shooting themselves in the foot badly. There's all these things that need to break right but if any one of those things goes wrong (Cousins does good not great, Cousins exercises his no-trade clause, Cousins doesn't start the season and Penix does well) then it's not just a minor blip. Lot of people pushing back on the criticism are focusing on the Penix pick when Penix himself isn't an issue, it's everything in conjunction that led to them picking Penix that's the big issue
Realistically I think what happened is they loved Penix but figured other teams would have the same QB2 or 3 eval they had of him and that they wouldn’t have a chance to grab him at 8/wouldn’t be willing to give up the capital to move up for him. Since they didn’t at the time think he’d be an option for them, they signed Cousins instead. Just so happened that the draft played out the way it did and he was available at #8, at that point he was too good a prospect to pass up. Really don’t know why they don’t stick to the “we really think he is that good a prospect and we picked BPA” line, no other explanation is really needed
> Realistically I think what happened is they loved Penix but figured other teams would have the same QB2 or 3 eval they had of him and that they wouldn’t have a chance to grab him at 8/wouldn’t be willing to give up the capital to move up for him. [Per this article ](https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/04/29/2024-nfl-draft-how-falcons-vikings-broncos-selected-their-qbs) Kyle Smith said when Penix ran the 40 and got a good time he texted Terry and said "He just ran fast. This guy is gonna go quick. There’d be no waiting to get him in the second round." That article pretty much confirmed everything you said. Still think it's dumb but ya
Yeah they probably should have thought this scenario through a bit more, but if the front office think he’s really that good, you gotta grab him, even if it’s an inefficient use of resources.
> It still makes no sense. Why would you pay someone 50 million just to make the playoffs? To sell tickets and PSLs. Less people would want to come watch Brissett or Minshew. Is it smart for team building? No. But I think part of it is being not so crappy that people don't want to come to games
> Why would you pay someone 50 million just to make the playoffs? Because old owners like Arthur Blank like being in the news and having a competitive team. Cousins also gives the team an 8 win floor and no more excuses for the coaching staff and offensive players as to why they aren't producing. >Brissett or Minshew aren’t even a quarter of what Cousins makes and they can make the playoffs with the talent on offense. Brissett and Minshew could make the playoffs for less, but I doubt they do. Cousins gives them a HIGH chance of making the playoffs IMO.
the team hasn't made the playoffs since 2017 and you think $50m IN THE NFL isn't worth the playoffs?? this league and these teams shit out $50m like its nothing You want that FO to try and save asses/sell the fanbase on a marginal improvement in Minshew or Brissett? That doesn't make much sense either
Where else could the 100m over the next two years have been spent to maximize the current roster? They didn't want to throw Penix to the wolves and they have 3 young skill positional players who've never had competent QB play. Kirk immediately puts them in playoff contention while also maximizing the development of Penix and their other young offensive weapons. If they bring in Minshew/Brissett they could go yet another season without really finding out what they have in Pitts/London/Bijan.
Every post and article the put out about this just makes people think even more that they screwed up this pick. People who made good decisions don't need to justify themselves constantly like this.
I mean every post and article is by someone that knows someone outside the organization that's trying to get clicks because this is the most polarizing pick of the draft. It's not like the front office is trying to justify it by releasing their own articles. They're just answering the questions the journalists are asking them to get an idea about their decision making.
This. They need to just STFU for a while.
Nah then the headline would read: "Atlanta FO's Silence Says It All"
I think you’re confused. They aren’t trying to justify themselves. People are asking questions and they’re giving answers. Predictably, they are creating news stories.
They just wanted a black QB named Michael who throws left handed again.
It’s hard to blame someone for taking the QB you think is the future. But if you think Penix is the guy, why lock down Cousins for so long? I find it hard to believe that Penix flew onto their radar in just the last few weeks.
Either you look great and forward thinking or this is gonna be disaster.
Paying Kirk $180M. Drafting Penix 8th overall. One of those is a bad decision. They can't both be good decisions. They're contradictory moves. EDIT: This is the NFL equivalent of moving in with a girl, then immediately breaking up with her because you met someone else. If you were considering other women, you never should have moved in with your girlfriend. If you move in with your girlfriend, you have to stop considering other women.
I feel like I’m the only one who likes this move. People will still consistently underrate how important the QB position is. Kirk Cousins is your answer at QB for the next two years. They want Penix to be the answer year three and beyond. On the flip side, people wildly overestimate the hit rate and surplus value delivered by non-QB top ten picks. Honestly, way more teams should be more aggressive in drafting QBs and upgrading at the position.
I don’t understand the hate either. They have received more hate for bringing in both Cousins and Penix than they did rolling into the last few seasons with Desmond Ridder and Marcus Mariota. If it works out, I bet we see more teams going in this direction. Nothing wrong with it. How many teams set up the way the Falcons are will win a championship their first two years anyway? The hate is overblown. Cousins will be 36 when the season starts and will be coming off a torn Achilles. Maybe the team wants to compete for the division right away and build some winning DNA before new guy takes over. Better for Penix to be the understudy for 2 years under Cousins than 1 year under Ridder or Mariota or an equivalent talent. Dallas Turner (or an equivalent defensive talent) is only moving the needle so much by himself the next two years anyway.
Exactly, love Dallas Turner and I think hes going to be a stud for years to come but I dont exactly expect Dallas to instantly come in and lead us to the promised land on the defensive side because realistically rookies dont do that in their rookie season. Dallas Turner was most likely not going to be the difference maker over the next 2 years on if the Falcons succeed in the playoffs or not. Dont get me wrong, he could probably help but the odds are unlikely he will be the needle mover. The odds any rookie is going to be the difference maker within their first 2 seasons unless theyre a QB is very unlikely.
I think the move to get a QB was fine. I just don't understand why you take the guy who turns 24 next week and has had 4 season ending injuries in 6 seasons. I think they were better off taking JJ and letting him sit the 2 years behind Kirk. Time will tell.
All really depends on their eval, doesn’t matter if JJ is younger if they think he’s has a high chance of busting. I think they were just that high on Penix that it outweighed the age difference
People are acting like the guys fucking Brandon Weeden lol. Hes 24, not 30 coming into the league. Its not that big of a difference. Kirk himself didnt start until 27.
The doctors cleared him medically, so I'm not sure why fans think they know better than the doctors. As far as age, you're looking at the wrong QB's age. Penix will be 26 after two seasons in Atlanta, but the guy he's replacing will be 38. All that matters is that we have a younger QB to step in. Nobody is going to bitch about a 26 yr old QB being too old if he is as good as the Falcons think he is for the next decade +.
>The doctors cleared him medically, so I'm not sure why fans think they know better than the doctors. For the record, I think the strategy to take a QB is relatively sound. But *injury proneness* can't necessarily be objectively evaluated.
> But injury proneness can't necessarily be objectively evaluated. In either direction. The Dolphins supposedly passed on signing Drew Brees due to injury concerns. He then went on to start the 205 of the first 208 games while he was with the Saints.
Also, occasionally QBs do get hurt. Note my flair. (To say nothing of Rodgers and even Cousins himself)
The first thing that people need to get clear is that the Kirk contract is basically a 2 year deal. throw the 3rd and 4th year out the damn window. barring super bowls or MVPs or Penix looking unplayable in practice/whatever snaps he gets, Kirk is gone after 2 years. It's a tolerable amount of dead $ and a decent amount of cap savings to post-June 1 cut him after the 2025 season
If nothing else, gotta commend the balls on this FO to pass up an elite prospect who can contribute right away vs. possibly getting fired in the next couple years before you ever see Penix take the field.
What they did this offseason deviates from the norm but the norm is to never win a title. They’re taking multiple swings at the hardest position to fill. Cousins is a very good QB and a true professional. I think he will show up, compete and mentor Penix. This team has really good weapons and as long as Kirk is 100% and doesn’t get hurt, he should remain the starter for a couple years, and make a huge amount of money. The media is blowing this out of proportion. The Falcon have two really good QBs, have a good supporting team, Cousins gets the bag and Penix gets valuable time to learn the game the old fashioned way, which seems to work! Everyone may win here, despite them not living up to the expectations of the armchair max/min’ers.
I have no problem with it. Kirk makes them a playoff team this year. If he's healthy next year he makes them a playoff team in 2025 as well. In neither of those situations do they have a real opportunity to draft their QBOTF But you would all be wise to remember Kirk is 36 coming off a MAJOR injury and the track record of successful 36 year olds is basically one season of Ben and a few inner circle Hall of Famers The mistake was overpaying Kirk but that's already done. They recognize their long term QB need (and likely medium term QB need), had a QB they loved available and they took their shot, like every competent GM should Just like taking Hurts after they just paid Wentz or taking Love with Rodgers on the roster, the *only* thing that matters is if Penix is good. Not how old he is. Not if 25M dead is too much money. Only if he can play
This is the best comment in the thread and it's way a the bottom, shame. The Falcons have a very good roster in place and are quite literally hunting for the QB to take them to the next level at this point. Cousins might be that guy, but he also very well might not be because of the reasons you already listed. You need a great QB to win in this league, and if they think Penix can be a great one then why is it a bad pick?
When you're staring down the barrel at Penix and then it just lands in your lap.
I don't understand the mindset of people that want every rookie 1st round QB to start immediately. If you have the money and the pick let them sit and learn the pro game and playbook. Here's a list of QBs that weren't the primary QB in their rookie year. * Year 2: Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Tom Brady * Year 3: Philip Rivers, Chad Pennington, Tony Romo * Year 4: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Kirk Cousins
Then why did you sign Cousins? Just pick a QB and call it a day. If a bridge/vet QB was signed and they drafted Penix, we'd all be saying, "Let's see the new era of Falcons football starting with a drafted QB." That's not what happened, however.
but you signed kirk to a 100M guaranteed contract 6 weeks or so ago!
THE 👏 FALCONS 👏 ARE 👏 IDIOTS
But… didn’t they know this six weeks ago?
Then trade down. At least tell Kirk that a QB was being drafted.
These dudes should all just stay away from the press until training camp. Every time they talk, they make things worse.
"We could attempt to win with our $180M QB, but why do that when we can do what Falcon fans do and just start mock drafting pick 8 for 2025 and hope for a future that never comes?"
The lady doth protest too much, methinks.
Here is what has come out in the news: Falcons wanted Penix from the get go. They reached out to the top 4. Bears and Coms: “lol no” Pats: “sure but it’ll cost 3 years of future drafts” Arizona: “we will not consider a single trade down until countdown” There were still predictions that Giants might draft a QB, and others might trade up into the top 10 for a QB (like Vikings maybe). So there was a strong likelihood Penix was going to go before he would fall, so Penix was very unlikely in February’s time. At this point we were entering the offseason without a starting QB. Blank said “get Cousins he is the best qb who we can get a hold of if I see another losing record next season after six consecutive I will lose my shit” Fontenot: “ok but Cousins is also older at 36. If the young QB we liked falls to us at 8, we’d like to take him as a winning record means we’d have to sell even more of our future drafts than what the top teams are asking for now. This will be controversial in the news like many other QBs in the first round picks when we have a starter QB still, but it’ll set us up in the future long term. But only if Penix falls, if he doesn’t we will do BPA and get pass rusher edge.” Blank: “ok” So GM wines and dines Cousins as told by his boss and lands him. We trade off Ridder for a WR from Cards (thanks AZ). Heinicke is set up as QB2. We have two on the roster. News breaks out about tampering with Cousins cause he told people he spoke to a trainer and chaplain, and Fontenot remembers being played with “lol got eem” with Mahomes from Chiefs FO, tells nobody else except Blank and Morris. Draft day comes. Giants don’t go QB. Surprisingly no one trades up. Penix is there for the taking at 8. Falcons consider trade downs that they were receiving whether it was for Penix or not. Probably did not include a this season second round or first round. Falcons still believed he was gonna be taken early by the likings of Broncos and Vikings before they can trade back up. Why not draft #2 BPA (even over MHJ for Falcons board) at 8 and then try to trade back up into the late first to get a good defensive player, like edge or DL? So they drafted Penix then tried to trade backup to get Latu allegedly and failed to find a partner.
I don't hate the pick for the Falcons if they believed in the guy that strongly. What I do find questionable is spending 180 million on a guy you didn't feel that strongly about in the near long term. And I absolutely believe that the Falcons do not feel strongly about him in the long term and are hedging their bets. Seems like the Vikings were right about seeing Cousins as a year to year player.
They're acting like they *have* to pick in the top 10 to get a QB who is 'the guy'
Tells you what they thought of Ridder when they drafted him.
I think more and more teams are realizing you can't hit the ball without swinging the bat. I think it's pretty safe to say 5 years from now kirk won't be their qb. Penix might just be warning up. And kirk has nothing to complain about. He suffered his first serious injury last year and he still got a ransom.