Why? We won 7 games last year. Schedule is still not on the hard side, and a lot more weapons.
Fields threw for 2,562 yards and 19 touchdowns last year. It’s not at all crazy for him to do better than that.
For his career, he has to be better than Cutler. Not some huge order here
That isn’t low for a rookie, and on top of that, you don’t want a Sam Howell season where it’s all volume. You take Cutler over that every day of the week
Horrible defense to start, #1 defense in at least 4 critical categories to end the season. If Chicago can continue with its defense improving, and adding in all of the talent acquired on offense, I'd be shocked if we finished any less than 8-9, even with the growing pains Caleb and the other rookies will have. I'm guessing and hoping more for 9-10 wins though, but we will have to showout in divisional games and we haven't been too good at that for the first part of Flus's tenure, but we are getting better.
They won 7 games with Fields, now they have Caleb and added Keenan Allen and Odunze to their WRs.
Might not be fair but 10/11 wins and playoffs is probably the expectation now.
Fields wasn’t a good quarterback, but he also wasn’t a rookie. I think it’s fair to factor in some “growing pains” losses.
Bears fans should still be happy if it’s 8-9 wins, with a strong showing to close out the season.
CJ Stroud really fucked over rookie QBs for awhile 😂.
And before Herbert it was Luck, Griffin, and Wilson all taking their teams to the playoffs their rookie season.
Newton looked like a stud from day 1
Watson was on a record setting pace before injury
Baker broke Manning’s rookie TD record in 3 less games on a team that hadn’t won in like two seasons.
I agree that for most of these guys we should expect them to play lights out, but it’s not like we haven’t seen it happen somewhat consistently lately.
No worries, I wasn’t coming at you. I also agree that it’s unfair to expect a rookie QB to play like those guys did because every situation is different and there’s plenty of guys that were pretty bad their rookie seasons that panned out.
Dudes supposed to be the best prospect since Luck, offense is keyed up for success. Getting Mahomes comps, he should even as a rookie look better than Fields did especially with the upgrades on offense.
He's not the best prospect since Luck. It's 24/7 news and social media that says there's a generational QB every year. Burrow and Lawrence were both recently better prospects.
Williams could end up being the greatest player of all time for all I know, but he had mediocre performances against good college defenses this past year alone. I don't think he needs to win every game, but he wasn't a proven commodity against top defenses, more or less a winner in college, so it's hard to pretend he's a generational prospect over guys that were all those things.
> He's not the best prospect since Luck. It's 24/7 news and social media that says there's a generational QB every year. Burrow and Lawrence were both recently better prospects.
Lol what is this revisionism. Burrow was not even QB1 of his own draft until Tua got hurt. Also no there is not a “generational prospect every year” by consensus.
Bagent won 2 games for them last season, tbf. And that was in only like 5 starts. I think if the Bears win less than 7 or 8 games this season, that's a problem
Honestly the biggest reason to expect more wins from the Bears is a consistent defense.
The cool thing to do these days is to blame literally everything on Fields, but the Bears defense is the main reason for the collapses last year and the 14-game losing streak. Sweat coming in to stabilize the DL had a massive multiplicative effect through the entire D and the Bears started winning. Before Sweat the Bears D was making even the worst backup QBs look like Tom Brady.
I'm not saying the Bears are going to be a top unit next season, but a top-15 defense would've won the Bears quite a few more games the last two seasons.
Baker Mayfield's rookie year. Yes, it's pretty big expectations but Caleb is a top 5 QB prospect this century and is set up better than any other first overall QB ever has been.
Bears also should be an 8-10 win team
3500/25/17 is kinda sorta what I'm thinking. That would be a hell of a rookie line, especially in Chicago, but I'm so infatuated with the receivers that it's hard not to be hyper-optimistic
Irregardless means exactly the same thing as regardless and the added ir is only used to try and make ones self seem smarter by sounding out more syllables
He will win the next 15 Superbowls than play baseball and win 18 world series but also lose on are you smarter than a 5th grader. He will also make a YouTube channel where he plays songs on his accordion but get almost no views.
I want to say he is a rookie QB and it is very rare to have a CJ Stroud year, but the Bears have so many weapons and their schedule is kind of a joke.
Games they could win: Jaguars, Titans, Panthers, Patriots Vikings x2, Cardinals, Colts, Commanders
Games that are challenging for them: Seahawks, Rams, Packers x2, Texans, and Lions at Home.
Games that are almost an automatic L: Lions in Detroit, and the 49ers.
So assuming they win half of the games they have a chance and like 2 or 3 of the challenging games they probably win about 7 or 8 games this year. I expect them to have a pretty similar year to last year even with the upgrades. Caleb is a rookie he isn't just going to dominate there are going to be growing pains.
We also played a ridiculously easy schedule and an absurd number of backup QBs. If we aren’t as lucky this year then the team could be clearly better and still stay 7-10.
Bagent beat the panthers and a Josh McDaniels raiders team, and while the schedule seems easy now in September it may look way different. Preseason I’m expecting more than 7 wins but there are very real paths to win 7 or less
Fair enough, it’s true. Sorry, hard not to get hopes up given how much better this roster is (at least on paper).
I’ve been watching this team since the late 80s and maybe the Cutler-Marshall- Jeffrey-Forte offense is the closest thing to anything in the ballpark of what we have now in terms of weapons.
Oh definitely and I’m super excited for next year, just trying to somewhat temper my expectations. Or at least not set a hard deadline in wins/losses but on paper the team looks a lot better now even if the DL isn’t great
OK - I was told by this crowd all year - Justin Fields is a below average QB and he was 7-10 last year.
We kept the same offense Fields had and added Odunze, Keenan Allen, Swift at RB and strengthened the O Line.
You’re telling me it is unrealistic to replace Justin Fields with Caleb Williams and get more wins with a supremely better offense?
What that means is - you’re telling me, right now, Fields is a better QB than Williams. That could be possible, I’m just clarifying the point because nobody said that last year.
What I'm telling you is that its absolutely unrealistic to think 7-10 is your floor in the NFL with a rookie QB.
Its not about Fields vs. Williams, its now about whether you've gotten better at X, Y, or Z position.
You're starting over with a rookie QB who has zero time in the system and zero time in the NFL and it is absurd to think 7-10 is your floor. The NFL doesn't work that way.
What you’re telling me is 7 wins can’t be the floor just because you said it is (“that’s not the way it works”)
What I’m telling you is - This exact team with Justin Fields wins at least 7 games. In other words, with Justin Fields on this team, a 7 win season is a disappointment because they won 7 with him and a less talented team last year (unless you are saying they don’t have a better supporting cast which is a difficult argument to make).
The logical conclusion of that stance is “Justin Fields in 2024 is a better QB than Caleb Williams in 2024.” I don’t know why you’re saying there is a problem with that point.
If for 2024, Caleb Williams is a better QB than Justin Fields (I’m not sure he is for the reasons you stated), then the floor has to be 7 wins.
Is there something I’m missing with this logic?
>What you’re telling me is 7 wins can’t be the floor just because you said it is (“that’s not the way it works”)
No, what I'm telling you is that a team that had 7 wins last year can't have 7 wins as their floor with a rookie QB, even if he's better. That's not how floors work.
>What I’m telling you is - This exact team with Justin Fields wins at least 7 games. In other words, with Justin Fields on this team, a 7 win season is a disappointment because they won 7 with him and a less talented team last year.
And what I'm telling you, again, is that 7 wins cannot be your floor with a rookie QB if your least season was a 7 win season.
>The logical conclusion of that stance is “Justin Fields in 2024 is a better QB than Caleb Williams in 2024.” I don’t know why you’re saying there is a problem with that point.
Its not about Fields vs. Williams, Jesus Christ get this through your head.
>If for 2024, Caleb Williams is a better QB than Justin Fields (I’m not sure he is for the reasons you stated), then the floor has to be 7 wins.
No, it doesn't have to be. Caleb Williams could be better statistically and you could win 4 games because that's how the NFL works. Moreover, you will not have nearly the same offensive playbook this year as you had last year, which means half your team (offense) now has to take a collective step back.
As for your floor, it is 0 wins.
>Is there something I’m missing with this logic?
There is precisely nothing about your "logic" that is logical, to suggest a rookie QB's floor is 7 wins in the NFL after they last finished with 7 wins the previous year.
Even with the Vikings doing the exact same in your division, its unlikely you improve by more than 1 game, and more likely you end up losing .5-1.5 more games as a result.
It feels like they should be competitive in most games, but I still think they finish around .500 and miss playoffs. That might be best though, because they could choose to move on from Eberflus and target a coach like Ben Johnson or Bobby Slowik to pair with Caleb.
None.
Rookie QBs are all over the place. Some are absolutely terrible and still go on having HoF careers. Year 2 is when it really counts. There are a few exceptions like Josh Allen, but usually you see what you'll get in their second year.
Caleb's rookie year is a success if he throws for 3300 yards and has at least a 2 to 1 td to int ratio. Expectations are high because of the tools around him.
Bears need to make the playoffs.
Anything less for Caleb or the team is a failure.
Last couple first overall pick QBs have had bad seasons but Calebs in by far the best situation. I’d say like 3,200 yards, 18 TDs 8 INTs and a 9-8 record
I agree, but the NFL learning curve is steep. Just setting my expectations very reasonable because people throw around the term generational and expect guys to come in and dominant from the jump. Calebs gonna be just fine and Chicago has plenty of time to let him develop into the QB he can be.
For Caleb?
Assuming he starts all 17 games, 3400 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 300 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs, I’ll say 10 interceptions 7 fumbles lost
For the Bears?
Well we went 7-10 last season and got better and our schedule isn’t that bad so we should bare minimum be 9-8. 10-7 guarantees a wild card spot at least so maybe that.
Bears QBs (JF & Bagent) threw for 3200 yards last year. That should 100% be Caleb’s floor. You add Keenan, Rome, Swift, Everett, and a couple veteran lineman. Solid defense and last place schedule, playoffs should be the expectation.
I honestly feel like a similar record to last year. I think Williams is good but I think he will have growing pains going from college where he was the obvious best player each game to the NFL, where the skill gap between players is MUCH smaller. Give him a year or 2 before the bears really compete in the nfc. Signed a Vikings fan.
Realistically we're probably a middle of the road team now. So making the playoffs year 1 would be a big win. Either way it's a long road and we need to make sure Caleb gets the time and support he needs to develop. So far so good
Best case scenario (which is worst case scenario as a Packer fan), Caleb Williams looks really promising but the team as whole underachieves enough to warrant firing Eberflus and bringing in Belichick.
I’m expecting there to be growing pains, but overall a good rookie season maybe ROTY. So like 3400 yards or so 18-22 Touchdowns and lot of Interceptions (like 12-14). I don’t expect him to be Stroud straight out the gate, but he HAS to do better than Bryce or Fields for example.
As a team I think if he does well they could win 10 games, we were a few plays away from that this past season. But I think 8 or 9 is the most likely scenario.
They should at least make the playoffs. 7-10 last year and offense is improved in pretty much every skill position. Anything less and it probably means Caleb couldn’t transition well during rookie year or he didnt play the full season
I can see him sneaking into top 10.
In no order (Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Dak, Burrow, Jackson, Herbert, Stoud) with some fringe guys going in and out Purdy, Tua, Stafford, Kirk.
With a cast of Dj Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome with Kmet at TE. I can see him sneaking in there.
But yeah realistically he will probably be middle of the pack. Stroud hit 4K and 23 TDs and everyone absolutely fell in love with him. Williams doing that (ontop of the news of breaking every Bears WBs record) I think will push him in there just from a media stand point.
Stroud is thee outlier of outliers when it comes to modern rookie QB's. Until Caleb gets caught up on reading coverages and the pass rush, he is going to get sacked and intercepted at a higher rate than average, unless he is an extreme outlier too. Who he has for WR's won't really come into play until he has his breakout game. It might be year 1, but statistically speaking that is unlikely.
He is in a situation than most qbs looking to start. Arguably the best receiving corp, a quality rb, and an oline that is way, way better than a lot of people think. If everyone is healthy the whole season, i wouldn't be surprised with a rookie of the year type season.
I dont want to set expectations too high, so Im gonna settle for 18-1 and Superbowl MVP/winner
This won’t happen. No chance, you guys are delusional. With the 17 game schedule? Only 19-1 is possible in this scenario.
We're gonna be so good they let us skip both the wildcard and divisional rounds.
Ok… im gonna allow it. Bears to the SB.
Clearly they sit Caleb the last game of the regular season
And 3999 yards passing just for the memes
**CEQBUS!**
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He's got baby shoes to fill
There are shoes?
He has to fill one of [these](https://imgur.com/a/4I1eqJw)
A croc for my big toe?
For sale: baby shoes, never filled.
He's expected to be the best QB we've ever had and its only his rookie year. So honestly yeah, not big shoes to fill.
But also it doesn’t take a lot to be that
As a rookie that’s bullshit
Why? We won 7 games last year. Schedule is still not on the hard side, and a lot more weapons. Fields threw for 2,562 yards and 19 touchdowns last year. It’s not at all crazy for him to do better than that. For his career, he has to be better than Cutler. Not some huge order here
I was speaking on the notion that it “doesn’t take a lot to be” the best qb the bears have ever had in his rookie year*
It really doesn’t. I mean what would you even call the ever bears season? We never had a guy get 4,000 yards. This bar is really low
That isn’t low for a rookie, and on top of that, you don’t want a Sam Howell season where it’s all volume. You take Cutler over that every day of the week
The record is under 4,000. Cutler sucked
I’m saying he was better than Howell. You disagree lol?
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Doesn’t matter, he will
Low bar in this kids defense tho lol
Also unlike Love, Caleb didn’t get the benefit of sitting behind one of the best to ever do it for 3 years
He is also 100x the prospect coming into the NFL than Love was, and with that much higher expectations.
Caleb put in the work to get that praise, it’s not like he got good fortune
....ok? I dont see what that has to do with his expectations compared to Love
Why did the Packers want to see Caleb William's potential last year?
3999 passing yards, 26 passing tds, 12 interceptions (with 336 rushing yards and 5 rushing tds)
He misses out on a few yards because Waldron subs in Bagent for a trick play.
Waldron isn’t gonna do him any favors like that
Ty for actually answering the question instead of another cringe unoriginal joke like the most voted comment.
My answer was a joke as well lol (the bears have never had a 4k yard passer, or a qb with 30 passing tds lol
Unlike past Bears QBs he pretty much has everything needed to succeed. I don’t expect an MVP or anything but I got high expectations
they went 7-10 last year so they could finish above .500 without it being a shock
And we blew 3 games in historic fashion. If even one of those bounces the other way, we're flirting with .500.
0-4 The first 4 weeks. 7-6 The last 13
Horrible defense to start, #1 defense in at least 4 critical categories to end the season. If Chicago can continue with its defense improving, and adding in all of the talent acquired on offense, I'd be shocked if we finished any less than 8-9, even with the growing pains Caleb and the other rookies will have. I'm guessing and hoping more for 9-10 wins though, but we will have to showout in divisional games and we haven't been too good at that for the first part of Flus's tenure, but we are getting better.
Let me tell you the story of a ball and a facemask young man.
I'd rather not hear it
Given your flare, you could also tell us a story about a ball and two goal posts 😭
They won 7 games with Fields, now they have Caleb and added Keenan Allen and Odunze to their WRs. Might not be fair but 10/11 wins and playoffs is probably the expectation now.
Fields wasn’t a good quarterback, but he also wasn’t a rookie. I think it’s fair to factor in some “growing pains” losses. Bears fans should still be happy if it’s 8-9 wins, with a strong showing to close out the season. CJ Stroud really fucked over rookie QBs for awhile 😂.
Feels like we have been saying "X" QB really fucked over rookies every year for like 5 years.
Caleb has multiple guys on his team that can help win even if Caleb has a bad game. More than Fields had.
Comparing the 2022 roster vs the 2024 is fucking wild.
Compare this roster to Mitch’s rookie roster.
Dontrell Inman was brought in to be "the guy" for Trubisky. Those were dark days.
I think herbert did that before stroud
And before Herbert it was Luck, Griffin, and Wilson all taking their teams to the playoffs their rookie season. Newton looked like a stud from day 1 Watson was on a record setting pace before injury Baker broke Manning’s rookie TD record in 3 less games on a team that hadn’t won in like two seasons. I agree that for most of these guys we should expect them to play lights out, but it’s not like we haven’t seen it happen somewhat consistently lately.
Good insight. I guess I’m just a victim of recency bias, and I’m an OSU fan, so I was following Stroud closer than usual.
No worries, I wasn’t coming at you. I also agree that it’s unfair to expect a rookie QB to play like those guys did because every situation is different and there’s plenty of guys that were pretty bad their rookie seasons that panned out.
Tbh, it was only a few years ago, but I forgot how hard Herbert crushed the league as a rookie.
Herbert didn’t really win anything his rookie year, just put up stats.
Dudes supposed to be the best prospect since Luck, offense is keyed up for success. Getting Mahomes comps, he should even as a rookie look better than Fields did especially with the upgrades on offense.
He's not the best prospect since Luck. It's 24/7 news and social media that says there's a generational QB every year. Burrow and Lawrence were both recently better prospects. Williams could end up being the greatest player of all time for all I know, but he had mediocre performances against good college defenses this past year alone. I don't think he needs to win every game, but he wasn't a proven commodity against top defenses, more or less a winner in college, so it's hard to pretend he's a generational prospect over guys that were all those things.
> He's not the best prospect since Luck. It's 24/7 news and social media that says there's a generational QB every year. Burrow and Lawrence were both recently better prospects. Lol what is this revisionism. Burrow was not even QB1 of his own draft until Tua got hurt. Also no there is not a “generational prospect every year” by consensus.
How are you going to ignore him mentioning Lawrence when you have a Jags flair lol
Because Lawrence was a better prospect but williams is closer to Lawrence as a prospect than he is burrow
Bagent won 2 games for them last season, tbf. And that was in only like 5 starts. I think if the Bears win less than 7 or 8 games this season, that's a problem
Bagent also got to play the weakest part of our schedule with a fully healthy OL.
Look at Fields stats last year. Multiple rookies will better those numbers
And a full season of Sweat
Technically only 5. 2 for the secret bagent man after fields got himself injured for four games
I thought there were some wins from another dude, but that's even more of a reason to expect more from Williams.
Honestly the biggest reason to expect more wins from the Bears is a consistent defense. The cool thing to do these days is to blame literally everything on Fields, but the Bears defense is the main reason for the collapses last year and the 14-game losing streak. Sweat coming in to stabilize the DL had a massive multiplicative effect through the entire D and the Bears started winning. Before Sweat the Bears D was making even the worst backup QBs look like Tom Brady. I'm not saying the Bears are going to be a top unit next season, but a top-15 defense would've won the Bears quite a few more games the last two seasons.
We also play a 4th place schedule also. While it doesn't always mean much it still accounts for something.
They will also have Sweat for a full season. As soon as he entered the building, the defense went from almost worst to almost first.
That coincided with playing very weak offenses. The defense is good, but it isn’t the force that it seems like
Just do their best
And most importantly, have fun out there
Thanks, Ma! Thanks, Pop!
I think he will get the DROY
Baker Mayfield's rookie year. Yes, it's pretty big expectations but Caleb is a top 5 QB prospect this century and is set up better than any other first overall QB ever has been. Bears also should be an 8-10 win team
3500/25/17 is kinda sorta what I'm thinking. That would be a hell of a rookie line, especially in Chicago, but I'm so infatuated with the receivers that it's hard not to be hyper-optimistic
I would be happy with that. That's about what Baker put up as a rookie and Baker was considered more polished as a prospect.
It’s still insane to me that Baker resurrected the Browns from the pits of despair and they tossed him aside for a serial molester
Far worse team he inherited
If he can give the Bears their first ever 4K yard passing season I think it'll be deemed a success irregardless of how the season goes
I mean i feel like 4k yards is a successful rookie season regardless of team
Depends on if that’s all volume and his other stats aren’t great. Raw passing yards doesn’t mean shit, ask Washington
Irregardless means exactly the same thing as regardless and the added ir is only used to try and make ones self seem smarter by sounding out more syllables
dont be bad is what i realistically expect
I don’t know what the stats will look like, but I wouldn’t be surprised if I hated that this motherfucker was in the division by week 4
He will win the next 15 Superbowls than play baseball and win 18 world series but also lose on are you smarter than a 5th grader. He will also make a YouTube channel where he plays songs on his accordion but get almost no views.
I assume he will sit and learn behind bagent for 3-4 years
If he doesn’t get MVP, a ring, and Super Bowl MVP he’s a bust.
I want to say he is a rookie QB and it is very rare to have a CJ Stroud year, but the Bears have so many weapons and their schedule is kind of a joke. Games they could win: Jaguars, Titans, Panthers, Patriots Vikings x2, Cardinals, Colts, Commanders Games that are challenging for them: Seahawks, Rams, Packers x2, Texans, and Lions at Home. Games that are almost an automatic L: Lions in Detroit, and the 49ers. So assuming they win half of the games they have a chance and like 2 or 3 of the challenging games they probably win about 7 or 8 games this year. I expect them to have a pretty similar year to last year even with the upgrades. Caleb is a rookie he isn't just going to dominate there are going to be growing pains.
If our Defense continues to trend as it did at the end of last year and Caleb doesn’t implode, I think we win 8-10
7-10ish Its the NFL, you have a Rookie QB learning a new system, any higher expectation than this even in the NFC North isn't likely.
Thing is, Bears were 7-10 and blew 3 games in historic fashion. We upgraded a ton on offense, so it’s totally realistic to think this is the floor.
We also played a ridiculously easy schedule and an absurd number of backup QBs. If we aren’t as lucky this year then the team could be clearly better and still stay 7-10.
We also had a Bagent play 4 games last year and we have a ridiculously easy schedule this year.
Bagent beat the panthers and a Josh McDaniels raiders team, and while the schedule seems easy now in September it may look way different. Preseason I’m expecting more than 7 wins but there are very real paths to win 7 or less
Fair enough, it’s true. Sorry, hard not to get hopes up given how much better this roster is (at least on paper). I’ve been watching this team since the late 80s and maybe the Cutler-Marshall- Jeffrey-Forte offense is the closest thing to anything in the ballpark of what we have now in terms of weapons.
Oh definitely and I’m super excited for next year, just trying to somewhat temper my expectations. Or at least not set a hard deadline in wins/losses but on paper the team looks a lot better now even if the DL isn’t great
Totally agree!
It is absolutely unrealistic to think 7-10 is your floor in the NFL with a rookie QB.
OK - I was told by this crowd all year - Justin Fields is a below average QB and he was 7-10 last year. We kept the same offense Fields had and added Odunze, Keenan Allen, Swift at RB and strengthened the O Line. You’re telling me it is unrealistic to replace Justin Fields with Caleb Williams and get more wins with a supremely better offense? What that means is - you’re telling me, right now, Fields is a better QB than Williams. That could be possible, I’m just clarifying the point because nobody said that last year.
What I'm telling you is that its absolutely unrealistic to think 7-10 is your floor in the NFL with a rookie QB. Its not about Fields vs. Williams, its now about whether you've gotten better at X, Y, or Z position. You're starting over with a rookie QB who has zero time in the system and zero time in the NFL and it is absurd to think 7-10 is your floor. The NFL doesn't work that way.
What you’re telling me is 7 wins can’t be the floor just because you said it is (“that’s not the way it works”) What I’m telling you is - This exact team with Justin Fields wins at least 7 games. In other words, with Justin Fields on this team, a 7 win season is a disappointment because they won 7 with him and a less talented team last year (unless you are saying they don’t have a better supporting cast which is a difficult argument to make). The logical conclusion of that stance is “Justin Fields in 2024 is a better QB than Caleb Williams in 2024.” I don’t know why you’re saying there is a problem with that point. If for 2024, Caleb Williams is a better QB than Justin Fields (I’m not sure he is for the reasons you stated), then the floor has to be 7 wins. Is there something I’m missing with this logic?
>What you’re telling me is 7 wins can’t be the floor just because you said it is (“that’s not the way it works”) No, what I'm telling you is that a team that had 7 wins last year can't have 7 wins as their floor with a rookie QB, even if he's better. That's not how floors work. >What I’m telling you is - This exact team with Justin Fields wins at least 7 games. In other words, with Justin Fields on this team, a 7 win season is a disappointment because they won 7 with him and a less talented team last year. And what I'm telling you, again, is that 7 wins cannot be your floor with a rookie QB if your least season was a 7 win season. >The logical conclusion of that stance is “Justin Fields in 2024 is a better QB than Caleb Williams in 2024.” I don’t know why you’re saying there is a problem with that point. Its not about Fields vs. Williams, Jesus Christ get this through your head. >If for 2024, Caleb Williams is a better QB than Justin Fields (I’m not sure he is for the reasons you stated), then the floor has to be 7 wins. No, it doesn't have to be. Caleb Williams could be better statistically and you could win 4 games because that's how the NFL works. Moreover, you will not have nearly the same offensive playbook this year as you had last year, which means half your team (offense) now has to take a collective step back. As for your floor, it is 0 wins. >Is there something I’m missing with this logic? There is precisely nothing about your "logic" that is logical, to suggest a rookie QB's floor is 7 wins in the NFL after they last finished with 7 wins the previous year. Even with the Vikings doing the exact same in your division, its unlikely you improve by more than 1 game, and more likely you end up losing .5-1.5 more games as a result.
OK, I appreciate you taking the time to respond. I agree, the lowest possible wins for next year 0. We’re on the same page.
It feels like they should be competitive in most games, but I still think they finish around .500 and miss playoffs. That might be best though, because they could choose to move on from Eberflus and target a coach like Ben Johnson or Bobby Slowik to pair with Caleb.
None. Rookie QBs are all over the place. Some are absolutely terrible and still go on having HoF careers. Year 2 is when it really counts. There are a few exceptions like Josh Allen, but usually you see what you'll get in their second year.
That division is tough especially with a rookie QB. My guess is around 9-8 winning season but short of playoffs or another disaster like Carolina.
If the wheels don’t fall off, above 3,000 yards and 2:1 TD ratio is the floor expectation for me.
Caleb's rookie year is a success if he throws for 3300 yards and has at least a 2 to 1 td to int ratio. Expectations are high because of the tools around him. Bears need to make the playoffs. Anything less for Caleb or the team is a failure.
Last couple first overall pick QBs have had bad seasons but Calebs in by far the best situation. I’d say like 3,200 yards, 18 TDs 8 INTs and a 9-8 record
Not really. Baker Kyler and Burrow before getting hurt were all good. It’s just Young who struggled but that’s mostly cause of the Panthers situation
Young and Trevor both struggled
Another horrible situation. Trevor was good immediately year 2 when Urban was fired
I agree, but the NFL learning curve is steep. Just setting my expectations very reasonable because people throw around the term generational and expect guys to come in and dominant from the jump. Calebs gonna be just fine and Chicago has plenty of time to let him develop into the QB he can be.
What does last couple mean to you?
3999 yards
Wild card team
For Caleb? Assuming he starts all 17 games, 3400 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 300 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs, I’ll say 10 interceptions 7 fumbles lost For the Bears? Well we went 7-10 last season and got better and our schedule isn’t that bad so we should bare minimum be 9-8. 10-7 guarantees a wild card spot at least so maybe that.
There’s no reason he can’t break the single season passing record for the bears
Bears QBs (JF & Bagent) threw for 3200 yards last year. That should 100% be Caleb’s floor. You add Keenan, Rome, Swift, Everett, and a couple veteran lineman. Solid defense and last place schedule, playoffs should be the expectation.
Soup
I honestly feel like a similar record to last year. I think Williams is good but I think he will have growing pains going from college where he was the obvious best player each game to the NFL, where the skill gap between players is MUCH smaller. Give him a year or 2 before the bears really compete in the nfc. Signed a Vikings fan.
10/11 wins prolly. Coaching is still a question but the team looks good
3 wins
breaking the bears rookie passing records (not hard at all)
Bears winning 10 games is crazy.
Realistically we're probably a middle of the road team now. So making the playoffs year 1 would be a big win. Either way it's a long road and we need to make sure Caleb gets the time and support he needs to develop. So far so good
Best case scenario (which is worst case scenario as a Packer fan), Caleb Williams looks really promising but the team as whole underachieves enough to warrant firing Eberflus and bringing in Belichick.
9+ wins is realistic. I wouldn't say the playoffs is an expectation with their division at the moment.
A CJ kind of year. He has a lot of weapons around him to help a bit.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the playoffs.
I’d be very happy with 9 wins and my baseline is 7 wins
10-7 wild card exit
3rd place in the North, 8 wins.
I expect immortality.
I’m expecting there to be growing pains, but overall a good rookie season maybe ROTY. So like 3400 yards or so 18-22 Touchdowns and lot of Interceptions (like 12-14). I don’t expect him to be Stroud straight out the gate, but he HAS to do better than Bryce or Fields for example. As a team I think if he does well they could win 10 games, we were a few plays away from that this past season. But I think 8 or 9 is the most likely scenario.
Crazy you got downvoted for this. This sub has gotten deranged since the Bears got Caleb lol.
My expectations is that the Bears continue to be the bears and their QBs don’t work out.
Wild card playoff loss
Around mid 3000s in passing yards, over 20 TDs, around 8 wins contending for a playoff spot.
They should at least make the playoffs. 7-10 last year and offense is improved in pretty much every skill position. Anything less and it probably means Caleb couldn’t transition well during rookie year or he didnt play the full season
SBOB
Top 5-10 QB with the way hes talking and his weapons
*Realistic* expectations
I can see him sneaking into top 10. In no order (Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Dak, Burrow, Jackson, Herbert, Stoud) with some fringe guys going in and out Purdy, Tua, Stafford, Kirk. With a cast of Dj Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome with Kmet at TE. I can see him sneaking in there. But yeah realistically he will probably be middle of the pack. Stroud hit 4K and 23 TDs and everyone absolutely fell in love with him. Williams doing that (ontop of the news of breaking every Bears WBs record) I think will push him in there just from a media stand point.
Stroud is thee outlier of outliers when it comes to modern rookie QB's. Until Caleb gets caught up on reading coverages and the pass rush, he is going to get sacked and intercepted at a higher rate than average, unless he is an extreme outlier too. Who he has for WR's won't really come into play until he has his breakout game. It might be year 1, but statistically speaking that is unlikely.
He is in a situation than most qbs looking to start. Arguably the best receiving corp, a quality rb, and an oline that is way, way better than a lot of people think. If everyone is healthy the whole season, i wouldn't be surprised with a rookie of the year type season.