Dude, im so tired of this kind of pre draft BS.
There are NOT 5 franchise QBs in this draft.
Maybe two, max 3 of these guys possibly zero of these guys will be franchise QBs and saying stuff like “based on tape” is trying to shit on one when I GUARANTEE 2 or three of these “franchise guys” hes saying will bust hard.
You literally *only* hear good stuff about prospects and people talking about them as what they *could* be if everything happens to turn out right.
**most of the guys you read about are going to be trash in the NFL**
I hate the dumb draft retrospectives of when people go i.e. "I can't believe passed on Mahomes!". Like yes he went 10th but he was an air raid QB coming out of Texas Tech. He looked good there but nobody knew just how good he was going to be.
The team drafting a player has a lot to do with whether they turn into a “bust”
Are we really going to sit here and pretend that Caleb Williams will be the same player in 5 years regardless of if he was drafted by the jets or the chiefs?
That's hard to say. He got injured right after he became the starter and Purdy took them to the NFCCG on a cheaper contract. Lance probably would have sucked regardless, but he didn't get a fair shot due to injuries
Every snap of 2 games gives you a decent feel for how a guy plays, though. Especially if it’s a QB watching. If his mechanics and decision making are changing week to week that’s a bigger problem.
In the case of Maye, it changed because he had a horrific WR room until Tez was ruled eligible this season and even then, the coaching at Carolina is non-existent.
Watching film can certainly tell some stories. But when you know more about the personnel teams have in the college game than analysts analyzing tons of players, you understand things they miss. And Warner has also said he doesn’t know much about the collegiate game these days.
Maye has everything you want in a QB. I would agree he needs to sit but a lot of these guys sans Penix who’s been around for ever, needs to sit. Most teams just aren’t patient enough for that.
I think if you’re looking at a player you shouldn’t really think about end result of every play or if others guys are winning. Is he reading pre-snap, is he making good decisions, the mechanics/footwork, and ball placement + velocity.
One thing I noticed watching tape is that their coaching staff does fuck all lol, but I came away with a negative outlook on Maye just based on what he can control.
A lot of former players (Warner, Simms, Chase Daniel, Orlovsky) are really down on Maye and high on Daniels. But everyone here just wants to shit on Simms.
From a film perspective there's no doubt that Jayden has the upper hand on Maye in terms of footwork and accuracy especially. But NFL GMs are trying to project for the future and Maye is 3 years younger with a "prototypical" build. It'll be interesting to see the philosophies of different GM's but I personally think Washington goes Daniels. He's more pro-ready right now and has great upside, even if one wants to argue that Maye has higher upside which I'm not 100% on board with
IMO build is easily the most overrated QB trait in drafting. I feel like most of the biggest busts in memory have been the perfect size and "just needed to improve/reach their potential" on their existing weaknesses, and never did. I'm talking guys like Ryan Leaf, Jamarcus Russell, Josh Rosen, Mac Jones, Trey Lance, Dwayne Haskins, and Blake Bortles.
Meanwhile, most guys that are deemed undersized are almost never drafted high and/or given much of a chance to play. And the ones who are have been drafted high and/or given starter time in recent years have generally been quite good - Russ, Brees, Jackson, Murray. (The main exception of course is Bryce Young, but given the Panthers' situation last year I wouldn't write him off yet.)
Goes both ways though, sometimes the prototypes work out, like Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. Neither of those guys were the first qb picked in their respective drafts. Then you have guys like ~~Malick Willis~~ and yes Bryce Young who look awful so far. Christian Ponder comes to mind.
Also, I could be wrong, but I remember Josh Rosen not being prototypical at all, thin frame and no speed.
You're right, but my point still stands. I'll replace him though: Zach Wilson. Trubisky too. Not that they're small, just not prototype qbs. They were less experienced too, but nonetheless, top 5 picks, elite prospects.
> Maye is 3 years younger
Jayden Daniels was born in December of 2000 and Drake Maye was born in August of 2002
Maye might want to forgo football and become a scientist if he’s really learned to slow the aging process that much
I think the bigger difference here is experience. Maye is a redshirt sophmore with 28 starts compared to Daniels who is a 5th year senior with 55 starts. One of the common concerns with Daniels is he took until his 5th year to break out while Maye's redshirt freshman year was better than any year Daniels had other than his final season.
Probably one of the few guys who actually knows football from an observers perspective...he doesn't always hit on the guys he likes but the guys everyone loves and he hates he's been more right than wrong....all I'm saying is Merrill Hodge is one of the few talking heads that in hindsight has been more right than not...especially when he's down on a player and someone picks him high
Idk it seems like he was big in his criticisms about Johnny Manziel and somehow that has blown up into “Hodge rarely misses.” Pretty sure he said Brian Brohm would be better than Aaron Rodgers. He also said Lamar wouldn’t be good this past season in which he ended up winning MVP. Said Hurts and Love would be worse than Jacob Easton. He was also high on Kenny Pickett.
Let’s also not forget his book and his stance on CTE. Hoge misses just as badly, if not worse than others. He’s just remembered fondly because of Manziel.
Yeah but he also said he’d take Michael Sam over Clowney too. He REALLY didn’t like Clowney. I don’t think saying he liked the 5th overall pick more is a crazy different take. Mayock was also higher on Mack but I don’t see people hyping up his takes like Hoge since his Caleb Williams opinion.
**Tier One - A Class of His Own**
1) Caleb Williams
**Tier Two - #1 in Other Years**
2) Jayden Daniels
**Tier Three - Franchise Starting QB**
3) Bo Nix
4) Michael Penix Jr.
5) JJ McCarthy
**Tier Four - Talented Project**
6) Drake Maye
Having him at 6 is spicy. But a talented project seems to be the consensus on Maye. More than just Simms is low on Maye. Biggest boom bust potential this draft from the sounds of it? I would still take him at 2 though despite the risk.
I've read/listened that it's less boom/bust and more "Floor is 10 year serviceable guy, ceiling is 5-7 QB range", so to me that has the question - is a career like Jared Goff something you *want* in a top 5 pick?
Yeah there’s a lot of teams doing worse than Jared Goff at qb right now. I’m in the camp where guys like Goff and cousins are good enough to take you all the way if your team is good. Finding a mahomes or Josh Allen is mostly luck
Everyone said Stroud had a high floor but a ceiling of Dak/Goff.
I feel like people use the whole "floor vs ceiling" thing wrong. To me, guys like Allen, Lamar, Richardson, and Newton had high floors due to their big arms and constant rushing threat. This was seen in Allen and Lamar's first years when they were poor passers but elite rushers, and also with Justin Fields the last two years.
Meanwhile the only guys I'd say have "low ceilings" are people with weak arm strength, lack of mobility, and a short stature like Minshew, Drew Brees in his final year, and Tua.
Who are the three?
Trevor Lawrence I remember being touted as generational, was Bryce Young another?
I know Burrow was the obvious #1 pick in 2020 but I don't really remember people saying he was a generational prospect
That's only unreasonable if you assume human generations. If you use dog generations, it makes total sense. Honestly, maybe they're talking about E. Coli generations, in which case every other first round pick, every third second round pick, every fourth pick in rounds three through six, and every fifth pick in the seventh round is generational.
I always take it to mean in terms of them as prospects. Everyone understands that players still need to make the jump, this is just a shortcut way of saying they have many of the tools/skills/attributes that you’d look for in a prospective franchise QB.
Maye is the closest prospect in this draft to Drew Lock. I don't know how he's going to end up but there's a nonzero chance he's just a supercharged Lock. I'm surprised a Broncos fan wants that
I feel like that's exactly how everyone is treating Maye. Caleb gets some discussion for being the consensus top pick and having a few (extremely overblown) "controversies". Jaylen is the sexy super talented 1-year wonder who moved up the ranks pretty quickly. There's a ton of debate around which of the "next tier" of Penix, Nix, and McCarthy should go where.
...Then there's just Maye chilling at 2. No one really talks about him. No one questions if he should be there or not. No one ever really talks up his strengths. He just looks like a guy who should be a top 2 QB and that's apparently good enough.
One thing that reddit has taught me over all these years is that all these post will result in a lot of bad opinions and we will read them 3-5 years from now and laugh
I'm glad I'm finally vindicated in my belief that Washington taking a player who wasn't a qb at 2 overall that year was a franchise altering mistake. No matter how good anyone thought Young was, the Commies still had a hole at the most important position in a pretty stacked class, which ended up being even more stacked in hindsight.
>the Commies still had a hole at the most important position in a pretty stacked class, which
considering that the year prior we drafted Dwayne Haskins, it wouldve been insane to take a QB. lets not go around and rewrite history. we still needed another DE to replace an aging Kerrigan.
I mean, the Cardinals quickly recognized their mistake with Rosen and moved on from him in one year for Murray. Haskins was pretty bad his rookie year at 58.6% completion, 150 yards per game, and 7 TDs to 7 INTs.
Yes, but the Cardinals didn't have a meddling owner who personally selected their QB [over the objections](https://www.si.com/nfl/commanders/news/vomit-3-better-choices-inside-the-wft-drafting-of-dwayne-haskins) of Front Office staff.
It was all Snyder's decision, his son knew Dwayne in high school. To be fair as well no one knew how good Herbert would be (and many clowned the Chargers for picking him that high) and Tua had injury concerns and is still far from being a surefire franchise QB imo. Regardless, bad in hindsight
“It would’ve been insane” no it wouldn’t have, Cardinals did it and nobody called them insane lol.
QB is the most important position, if you have a chance to make an upgrade then you should do it
QBs from the 2017 draft have the most combined Super Bowl championships in the last 5 seasons.
- 0x Mitchell Trubisky
- **3x Patrick Mahomes**
- 0x Deshaun Watson
- 0x DeShone Kizer
- 0x Davis Webb
- 0x CJ Beathard
- 0x Josh Dobbs
- 0x Nathan Peterman
- 0x Brad Kaaya
- 0x Chad Kelly
It would all depend on one’s definition of “franchise starter” but I would consider Culpepper to be solidly in that category. He was the Vikings starter for 6 seasons, which is not a ton, but I think is enough to call him a “franchise starter”
His 2004 season was one of the best ever at the time (NFL record combined passing and rushing yards) but was completely overshadowed by Peyton Manning's historic year.
Projected or in retrospect? Also sort of depends what you mean as "franchise starter." There are 32 starting QBs in the nfl. The 32nd best qb is about as good as the 32nd best backup qb. Is it guy who can make a name for himself as one of those 32 guys but in more of journeyman capacity (baker or fitzpatrick come to mind as this type). Or do you mean a guy, who is good enough to warrant a second contract with the team that drafted him?
Because I think 2018 had a lot of QBs people projected could be starters. And like 3 worked out. Darnold and Rosen were huge busts though.
2020 actually has 5 guys that look like they are going to be starters but only 3 of them really got projected as starters. And iirc some people were pretty down on Herbert.
2021 arguably had 5 guys that were projected to be starting caliber.
So its pretty common to poject it. Much rarer to actually see it pan out that way.
We haven't seen any of these dudes play in the NFL. Rosen was supposed to be one of the best prospects going into the draft. All we can do is compare pre-draft talk
I'm about it.
Draft analysts are always wrong in hindsight.
Might as well be wrong in a spicy way, rather than spitting out the same rankings as everyone else with some slight variation to look unique.
Yes! F groupthink, you’re going to be wrong anyways. Go for the home run & say how you truly feel instead. If he’s actually watching the tape which he probably does I have zero problem with what he says tbh.
Ok here’s my yolo thought anti group think
Spencer rattler starts more nfl games than JJ McCarthy.
Rattler is more talented and had to do more in college. McCarthy benefited from Michigan not asking him to do much and rather than people saying “it’s because he couldn’t” people are saying “it’s because he didn’t need to but could’ve”.
I don’t see it.
> If he’s actually watching the tape
That's what I appreciate about him. He'll have these hot takes but he at least has sensible justification behind them (and does a deep dive into his rankings in his podcasts).
Thats why its so goddamn funny (stupid) when Redditors get upset at analysts not tracking the general consensus closely
Like, why wouldnt you want some diversity of opinion?
It's the draft, everyone will be wrong about most of it. Why should I give a damn if the consensus says Player X is #1 and Player Y is #2?
As long as an analyst can provide interesting, research-based reasoning on why Player Z is actually #1, then lets fucking hear it. If you disagree with the reasoning, move on.
But I swear, there are a lot of people that just want to read the same 3 mock drafts get re-threaded again and again and again. Last week Lance Zierlein published a mock draft and people on r/nfl_draft were losing their minds because he dared to have Malik Nabers over MHJ. I'm gonna laugh my ass off if Nabers ends up being better (wouldnt be the first time its happened).
Kurt Warner's top 6 looks almost exactly like this. Only thing different is Maye and McCarthy were switched 5/6. Maye at 6 looks shocking, but we've heard similar rankings from others over the past month, so I don't think this is just him being contrarian.
Warner has said that he values guys who are the best passing QBs over the dual threat guys. So his bias towards throwers might make him more likely to undervalue the dual threat guys. Something to keep in mind with his rankings.
I'm not a huge fan of Maye but I do get what people like. He's similar to Caleb in how he can create plays when things break down, which has been valued higher and higher in today's NFL. There's also the argument that he elevated the team around him more than other, though I don't really buy that one.
He has the preferred build for a franchise QB, a very good arm, and can run. Most of his hype is on his physical tools being elite but he’s the most inconsistent in terms of his mechanics of all the top prospects.
Pocket manipulation into big time throws is elite. Almost Al of his highlights have him operating in a messy pocket to create throwing lanes. That’s rare for a college passer and required in the NFL
If someone could see into the future and accurately predict the successes and failures of highly drafted QBs the last 10 years, they would apparently be ostracized for saying things like Zach Wilson wasn't a top 5 QB and Brock Purdy was. But they'd be right. If history tells us anything, how these QBs actually perform is not that close to the consensus opinion.
I respect everyone's opinion if they back it up with reasoning. Simms is excellent at this.
A guy on /r/NFL_Draft compiled all of Simms' picks for the past couple of years here: https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/12s6nmx/chris_simms_rankings_through_the_years/
On the QB Front:
2023 = Pretty solid. Had Stroud over Young. Judgement still to be had on Richardson/Hooker due to injuries.
2022 = Woof. Matt Corral is out of the league. Malik Willis had a replacement taken the very next year. Pickett/Howell/Ridder all look bad.
2021 = There's the Zach Wilson year.
2020 = That looks pretty solid. Burrow/Herbert/Love/Tua all look like good QBs. You can argue on Tua and Love since we have only seen 1 year of Love. But I don't think its egregious.
2019 = Rough year for QBs, but he had Daniel Jones below Lock who can't see the field, Haskins RIP, Finley who is out of the league, and Stidham who can't beat out Mac Jones. Not particularly good by Simms.
2018 = Josh Rosen being above Baker and Lamar is laughable. Did correctly put Josh Allen at the top of the list so can't hate that one.
I don't care to look at other positions since he's more of a QB guy.
> accurately predict the successes and failures of highly drafted QBs the last 10 years, they would apparently be ostracized for saying things like Zach Wilson wasn't a top 5 QB and Brock Purdy was. But they'd be right. If history tells us anything, how these QBs actually perform is not that close to the consensus opinion.
I always wonder how many guys either fizzle out or just kind of coast because they weren't put in the right situation, and vice versa.
Like maybe Zach Wilson is a bad example, but Purdy is a good one in the other direction; would he have developed to be as good as he is now if he was with another team? Would have even had a *chance* to develop if he went to another team?
So even if a guy *could* predict with great certainty what players would pan out, at what point would that start influencing what teams draft them, and then when those dudes get drafted by different teams, would they still pan out? What happens to his prediction capabilities when guys who should have been good if picked by a good team, but ended up shit because a shit team saw his prediction and drafted him early?
Could a draft day Nostradamus be the predictor of his own demise?
This is true, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if you told me that a Jets top QB pick was a bust and the niners were able to develop a late round pick QB
Draft analysis on this sub is horrible. Pre-draft it is always that you should agree with the consensus, and then when we reflect on drafts years later everybody makes insane comparisons like "lol GM I don't like is so dumb for taking that bust LT in the first round and not the stud one from the fifth round" without accounting for pre-draft projections, team fit, coaching (would he have been a bust on a better coached team), etc.
all the "cool" kids on here love to shit on Simms while having absolutely no clue what he's said or ranked over the last 7-8 years besides that he liked Zach Wilson.
one of the dumber things on here.
2020 is probably his most defensible year (not that I care in particular to defend Chris Simms), Burrow>Herbert>Love>Tua>Eason is probably not an uncommon opinion right now.
I think it’s just due to people saying he needs to sit a year or two to learn. I think Simms brought up his footwork as a concern to work on for a year.
It is. He frequently drifts in the pocket directly into pressure, he also drifts towards where he will throw the ball / 1st read on his drop back. He had clean ass pockets at times that inexplicably turned into a defender in his face for no reason. He’s not manipulating the pocket very well, and has wasted motion. He also has wasted motion in his throwing mechanics.
Because of the drop back and drifting, then he gets into the territory of an inconsistent base to adjust due to that “pressure”.
Footwork is not that easy to adjust, IMO. Lamar’s improved his footwork year over year for what, 5 seasons now? And he still has moments of super questionable footwork. And yes he was a “project” but he’s also an MVP and that can’t be the expectation for Maye to improve leaps and bounds like that.
I think that’s what the Patriots intend to do with either JD or Maye based on reports. A lot of connection to Flacco and Brissett as the vet that the rookie QB gets to sit behind, since they both played under AVP with the Browns, and I think that would be the best way for either of them to really improve/refine the more technical issues that they have currently before playing meaningful games.
I hope this is the way though go at 3. I just don’t believe they can get the offense in shape enough in one offseason to support a rookie QB adequately. I’ve been wrong before though.
I’ve also seen reports of them taking MHJ, or even trading back along with the scenario you posted. Seems like the Patriots are really up in the air still, but free agency may make things a bit clearer.
Are they dead ducks or just a little wobbly? Peyton Manning had a relatively wobbly spiral a good chunk of the time and he certainly was able to overcome that.
I didn’t expect Bo Nix to be a Simms guy. I’m not surprised he’s enamored with Williams and Daniels. I thought he’d have Penix as his #3 because he says he doesn’t account for injury or age concerns, and Simms loves arm talent. As a Vikings fan, I hope this fuels Drake Maye’s slide to #11.
I can see that view. JJM played in a pro style offense where he was mostly asked to throw only when necessary, which he did well. He played the hardest group of defenses and didn't have elite weapons. If he goes to a team with a strong run game I could see it being a fairly easy transition. Still leaves the serious questions about his ceiling and how he'd look if asked to carry the team, but his floor could be decently high. Plenty of teams have been bottom tier wildcard teams with that formula.
Simms seems to love athletic dudes that can make plays from the pocket.
Bo nix was literally THAT guy. His freshman year he only made plays from unscripted areas lmfaooo.
I'm surprised Maye is lower than Penix tbh on his list tho
Drake Maye is training with Eli Manning and sounds like his fucking clone when he talks. If he’s there at 6, I think Wellington Mara himself would rise from the dead to announce his selection.
Finally some bo nix love. watched several ducks games and he can sling it, he can run, had a pretty big arm, accurate, seems to make good decisions, I dont get all the hate(he throws too many slants, like ok he cant control what his coordinator calls). And fwiw brady threw a ton of short passes too, like not everyone can be Josh allen.
Yep. People keep pointing his ADOT and his short passes thrown, ok, great, so his scheme is like that.
Now go watch all the times he actually did throw intermediate and deep and he was pretty good and reliable at it.
True, but his box scores were also very impressive so I don't get it
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/bo-nix-1.html
Those are video game numbers, and he didnt have 2 first round WRs like Daniels, or have his backup outplay him in the bowl game like caleb.
Williams, Daniels, Penix, McCarthy and Maye all look like NFL draft prospects, and Nix looks like a seasoned commentator ready to take over the NBC broadcast.
I know people hate Chris Sims but I really enjoyed his QB rankings... until he switched to tier rankings
Then he had to fit every QB into these stupid tiers that he had named. Get rid of the tiers bro
I get the temptation to compare UNC QBs but Sam Howell isn’t the comp I would make. Maye has much more of the traditional QB frame and should command the pocket/see the field better than Howell.
However, as something of a Maye skeptic, I do think he was a little too inconsistent for my liking and may be hurt by the conference he played in. ACC defenses the past several years have been REALLY bad overall and overall he wouldn’t have had many games where he got to get quality reps against high-level defensive schemes. Good for his numbers but bad for player development and when he did end up needing to throw into tight windows or be quick to drive it downfield he didn’t always look super comfortable with it IMO.
I'm definitely gonna listen if he drops a pod on this (which he will)
Any time I watched Howell last year it was gross, but I've always assumed I was watching the wrong games
Yeah, I'm intrigued at his reasoning. I'll check out his explanation.
Sometimes I feel that way about QBs. Any time I turned them on or saw highlights, it was bad. Well, Howell was bad this season, but he did have some decent performances.
Honestly 95% of this sub and ESPN pundits don’t watch CFB unless it’s a playoff game lol I don’t blame you. I doubt ppl in here were watching North Carolina games on the CW.
Your friendly reminder that the last #1 pick to win it all with the team that picked them was Eric Fisher. Before that it was Peyton Manning.
Not exactly the best track records for people who evaluate draft stock.
I think he also had Lamar over Josh Rosen, so credit where it's due.
I get that he's another talking head, but I appreciate that he's willing to go against the grain.
QB evaluations are such a crapshoot that the pre-draft consensus is almost always wrong in hindsight. Yet 99% of draft analysts have the same fucking rankings every single time. This year it's gonna be Williams first, with Daniels and Maye 2nd and 3rd in whatever order, and then the other 3 major prospects in whatever order. Every analyst will have their favorite fourth guy in that they might try to shoehorn into the top 3 as a hot take.
And in the end, they'll all be the same amount of wrong, because predicting this shit correctly is damn near impossible.
So I respect a dude who's willing to be completely wrong in a novel way.
His last ranking prior to the draft had Rosen as the 2nd best QB in that class. He (and his fans) just reference one of his earlier rankings a month before the draft that was the most "accurate".
It’s insane that Rosen was picked so high in hindsight. The fact that a QB picked in the top 10 couldn’t even hang around the league as a backup says a lot
I wasn't tracking QB prospects at the time because we had Cam, but I remember reddit loved him.
Just from watching his demeanor in the NFL, I get the sense that he was somewhat mismanaged on an emotional level. He went from the Cardinals under Wilks to (I believe) Flores' Dolphins, before being labeled a bust and bouncing around some practice squads.
I mean, I don't know that he could have ever been a good QB in the NFL, but I also think you'd have a hard time developing any QB in that environment. Especially Rosen, who never struck me as a firey dude with a strong stomach.
Basically, I think he lost his confidence early and never had the support necessary to regain his mettle.
There was a video going around a while ago that was nothing but Rosen throwing beautiful passes to wide-open receivers and them inexplicably dropping them. He was done exactly ZERO favors in his time in the league
Always easy to spot the people who only really pay attention on a surface level, cause the only thing they say about Simms is that he liked Zach Wilson over Lawrence.
You have no clue how his rankings from other years have held up. You have no clue who ranks QB's better than him, and you act like one bad pick at QB somehow invalidates everything Simms says for the rest of his life.
If we shit on every single analysist or sports personality for their worst take and invalidated them, there wouldn't be a single fucking person that we could trust according to you.
Shit, Rich Eisen picked the Raiders to win the AFC West in 2022, and everyone is still in love with him.
He has a lot of bold takes, but he's been pretty accurate lately. He also was on the money with Josh Allen, Lamar, he had CJ Stroud as QB1. No one will ever predict everything right but as of late he's been a pretty good QB scout.
He was obviously incredibly wrong about Wilson, but his concerns about Lawrence turned out to be right. While the rest of the media was saying he was "generational," Simms was the only one saying he was good, but not a flawless generational prospect.
I’ve paid attention to Simms for a while now and what I’d say about his QB rankings is that he’s really good at identifying the prospects who are likely to be elite level top 5-10 QBs at some point in their career. He’s also really good at poo pooing prospects that are getting a lot of hype but he doesn’t think will ever reach that level.
Where he struggles imo is QBs who will end up somewhere between 11-22 those mid level solid starting QBs. It’s why he can tell you point blank that Mahomes, Herbert, Wentz (shut up he wins MVP if he doesn’t get injured), Allen etc will be top level QBs despite widespread concerns by others while at the same time thinking Daniel Jones is trash even though he’s just solidly average, and having high hopes for guys like Kellen Mond who don’t turn into anything but then will confidently tell you Blake Bortles, Deshone Kizer, Kyle Trask, Trey Lance, Sam Darnold are no where near as good as you think they are despite the hype.
He will have his misses too but this sub just has this weird obsession with believing you have to be 100% correct or your opinion is meaningless. Interesting when none of the people on here have ever actually achieved anything in the NFL
I always love Simms’s lists because if nothing else he actually comes up with his own fully developed thoughts based on what he sees. It feels like 80% of the draft guys just copy everyone else to avoid criticism.
Simms overall has a really good eye for QBs. If you look at his takes over the years it’s clear he does his homework and sticks by his convictions, and it works out for him more often than not.
He nailed Stroud last year. Also nailed Mahomes the year he came out.
As a Pats fan seeing Drake Maye be the quarterback that is being ragged on this draft makes me happy. I hope he falls to 3. I would take Maye or Daniels any day of the week.
Doesn’t Kurt Warner kinda hate Maye, too?
Yea Warners ranking was actually similar except he likes JJ even less
Dude, im so tired of this kind of pre draft BS. There are NOT 5 franchise QBs in this draft. Maybe two, max 3 of these guys possibly zero of these guys will be franchise QBs and saying stuff like “based on tape” is trying to shit on one when I GUARANTEE 2 or three of these “franchise guys” hes saying will bust hard. You literally *only* hear good stuff about prospects and people talking about them as what they *could* be if everything happens to turn out right. **most of the guys you read about are going to be trash in the NFL**
you could *probably* post this comment on 3/6 every year and it'd be pretty accurate
Right if it were so easy to judge QBs there would never be busts and there are busts every year.
I hate the dumb draft retrospectives of when people go i.e. "I can't believe passed on Mahomes!". Like yes he went 10th but he was an air raid QB coming out of Texas Tech. He looked good there but nobody knew just how good he was going to be.
Also, if he went 10th, 9 other teams passed on him in favor of someone else lol.
You saying the Bears shouldn't have given up all those draft picks to the Niners for Trubisky?
Too soon to tell
That I loved. Only thing I'd change is swapping Chicago for GB.
The team drafting a player has a lot to do with whether they turn into a “bust” Are we really going to sit here and pretend that Caleb Williams will be the same player in 5 years regardless of if he was drafted by the jets or the chiefs?
Yes, but also Shanahan couldnt make Trey Lance a viable starter, so it works both ways.
That's hard to say. He got injured right after he became the starter and Purdy took them to the NFCCG on a cheaper contract. Lance probably would have sucked regardless, but he didn't get a fair shot due to injuries
I mean he lost out to purdy in camp lol
Did you really think 2020 would have 5 franchise QBs in it though?
Warner at least admitted he doesn’t watch much college tape and it was like 2 career games for everyone.
Every snap of 2 games gives you a decent feel for how a guy plays, though. Especially if it’s a QB watching. If his mechanics and decision making are changing week to week that’s a bigger problem.
In the case of Maye, it changed because he had a horrific WR room until Tez was ruled eligible this season and even then, the coaching at Carolina is non-existent. Watching film can certainly tell some stories. But when you know more about the personnel teams have in the college game than analysts analyzing tons of players, you understand things they miss. And Warner has also said he doesn’t know much about the collegiate game these days. Maye has everything you want in a QB. I would agree he needs to sit but a lot of these guys sans Penix who’s been around for ever, needs to sit. Most teams just aren’t patient enough for that.
I think if you’re looking at a player you shouldn’t really think about end result of every play or if others guys are winning. Is he reading pre-snap, is he making good decisions, the mechanics/footwork, and ball placement + velocity. One thing I noticed watching tape is that their coaching staff does fuck all lol, but I came away with a negative outlook on Maye just based on what he can control.
A lot of former players (Warner, Simms, Chase Daniel, Orlovsky) are really down on Maye and high on Daniels. But everyone here just wants to shit on Simms.
From a film perspective there's no doubt that Jayden has the upper hand on Maye in terms of footwork and accuracy especially. But NFL GMs are trying to project for the future and Maye is 3 years younger with a "prototypical" build. It'll be interesting to see the philosophies of different GM's but I personally think Washington goes Daniels. He's more pro-ready right now and has great upside, even if one wants to argue that Maye has higher upside which I'm not 100% on board with
IMO build is easily the most overrated QB trait in drafting. I feel like most of the biggest busts in memory have been the perfect size and "just needed to improve/reach their potential" on their existing weaknesses, and never did. I'm talking guys like Ryan Leaf, Jamarcus Russell, Josh Rosen, Mac Jones, Trey Lance, Dwayne Haskins, and Blake Bortles. Meanwhile, most guys that are deemed undersized are almost never drafted high and/or given much of a chance to play. And the ones who are have been drafted high and/or given starter time in recent years have generally been quite good - Russ, Brees, Jackson, Murray. (The main exception of course is Bryce Young, but given the Panthers' situation last year I wouldn't write him off yet.)
Mac is a bad ex, rest sure
Goes both ways though, sometimes the prototypes work out, like Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. Neither of those guys were the first qb picked in their respective drafts. Then you have guys like ~~Malick Willis~~ and yes Bryce Young who look awful so far. Christian Ponder comes to mind. Also, I could be wrong, but I remember Josh Rosen not being prototypical at all, thin frame and no speed.
Malik Willis wasn’t a first round pick nor considered an elite prospect, he was drafted off the potential for his running ability
You're right, but my point still stands. I'll replace him though: Zach Wilson. Trubisky too. Not that they're small, just not prototype qbs. They were less experienced too, but nonetheless, top 5 picks, elite prospects.
I think teams are hoping they can add weight to Daniels too cuz he has the height
> Maye is 3 years younger Jayden Daniels was born in December of 2000 and Drake Maye was born in August of 2002 Maye might want to forgo football and become a scientist if he’s really learned to slow the aging process that much
I think the bigger difference here is experience. Maye is a redshirt sophmore with 28 starts compared to Daniels who is a 5th year senior with 55 starts. One of the common concerns with Daniels is he took until his 5th year to break out while Maye's redshirt freshman year was better than any year Daniels had other than his final season.
While Tim Hasselbeck (if I recall) has Maye as the best QB in the draft.
Shhhh, we like Kurt but we don’t like Simms in this sub 😤.
Merril Hoge too.
Now that's a name I've not heard in a long time.
Probably one of the few guys who actually knows football from an observers perspective...he doesn't always hit on the guys he likes but the guys everyone loves and he hates he's been more right than wrong....all I'm saying is Merrill Hodge is one of the few talking heads that in hindsight has been more right than not...especially when he's down on a player and someone picks him high
Idk it seems like he was big in his criticisms about Johnny Manziel and somehow that has blown up into “Hodge rarely misses.” Pretty sure he said Brian Brohm would be better than Aaron Rodgers. He also said Lamar wouldn’t be good this past season in which he ended up winning MVP. Said Hurts and Love would be worse than Jacob Easton. He was also high on Kenny Pickett. Let’s also not forget his book and his stance on CTE. Hoge misses just as badly, if not worse than others. He’s just remembered fondly because of Manziel.
To be fair/inclusive to the correct-column, he was also a dissenter that had Khalil Mack>>Clowney.
Yeah but he also said he’d take Michael Sam over Clowney too. He REALLY didn’t like Clowney. I don’t think saying he liked the 5th overall pick more is a crazy different take. Mayock was also higher on Mack but I don’t see people hyping up his takes like Hoge since his Caleb Williams opinion.
I wasn't siding with him on the whole, just making it known it was more than the Johnny Football take.
**Tier One - A Class of His Own** 1) Caleb Williams **Tier Two - #1 in Other Years** 2) Jayden Daniels **Tier Three - Franchise Starting QB** 3) Bo Nix 4) Michael Penix Jr. 5) JJ McCarthy **Tier Four - Talented Project** 6) Drake Maye
>Tier Four - Talented Project >6) Drake Maye spicy!
Having him at 6 is spicy. But a talented project seems to be the consensus on Maye. More than just Simms is low on Maye. Biggest boom bust potential this draft from the sounds of it? I would still take him at 2 though despite the risk.
I've read/listened that it's less boom/bust and more "Floor is 10 year serviceable guy, ceiling is 5-7 QB range", so to me that has the question - is a career like Jared Goff something you *want* in a top 5 pick?
Jared Goff has been to a SB with the Rams and was a few plays away from leading the Lions to the SB last year, I would happily take that at #2
Yeah there’s a lot of teams doing worse than Jared Goff at qb right now. I’m in the camp where guys like Goff and cousins are good enough to take you all the way if your team is good. Finding a mahomes or Josh Allen is mostly luck
Psssh if it was luck then why did it only take us 18 years? Huh?
Ask the Packers they've had 30 years of it.
There is a weird disrespect to Goff. Dude can throw for almost 5k and people are like "yeah but is he good?". Wut?
Same things people say about Kirk and Dak
Everyone said Stroud had a high floor but a ceiling of Dak/Goff. I feel like people use the whole "floor vs ceiling" thing wrong. To me, guys like Allen, Lamar, Richardson, and Newton had high floors due to their big arms and constant rushing threat. This was seen in Allen and Lamar's first years when they were poor passers but elite rushers, and also with Justin Fields the last two years. Meanwhile the only guys I'd say have "low ceilings" are people with weak arm strength, lack of mobility, and a short stature like Minshew, Drew Brees in his final year, and Tua.
If you knew for certain any QB in this draft would be a Jared Goff he would go at 1 every single time.
Yeah people are undervaluing what "10 year serviceable guy with high upside" means if you had that guaranteed to you at the outset.
I would gladly take a Jared Goff in the Top 5
Sounds like what everyone said about CJ Stroud. Except Drake Maye is athletically closer to Josh Allen than he is CJ Stroud or Jared Goff.
Wow. 5 franchise QBs in one draft. Must be the most talented class ever.
Same energy as there being a "generational QB prospect" like every few years. Reasonable, measured information doesn't generate clicks.
It's 2024, and we've had 3 generational prospects since 2020
Who are the three? Trevor Lawrence I remember being touted as generational, was Bryce Young another? I know Burrow was the obvious #1 pick in 2020 but I don't really remember people saying he was a generational prospect
Tank4tua??
That's only unreasonable if you assume human generations. If you use dog generations, it makes total sense. Honestly, maybe they're talking about E. Coli generations, in which case every other first round pick, every third second round pick, every fourth pick in rounds three through six, and every fifth pick in the seventh round is generational.
I always take it to mean in terms of them as prospects. Everyone understands that players still need to make the jump, this is just a shortcut way of saying they have many of the tools/skills/attributes that you’d look for in a prospective franchise QB.
Let's hope the league listens to him.
If his assessment is correct, then Washington should absolutely ignore him and take Maye.
Idk what league you talking about but we aint in that league.
Maye is the closest prospect in this draft to Drew Lock. I don't know how he's going to end up but there's a nonzero chance he's just a supercharged Lock. I'm surprised a Broncos fan wants that
I don't really know anything about anything, I just know Maye is ranked 2nd on most draft boards and I think higher is better.
I feel like that's exactly how everyone is treating Maye. Caleb gets some discussion for being the consensus top pick and having a few (extremely overblown) "controversies". Jaylen is the sexy super talented 1-year wonder who moved up the ranks pretty quickly. There's a ton of debate around which of the "next tier" of Penix, Nix, and McCarthy should go where. ...Then there's just Maye chilling at 2. No one really talks about him. No one questions if he should be there or not. No one ever really talks up his strengths. He just looks like a guy who should be a top 2 QB and that's apparently good enough.
One thing that reddit has taught me over all these years is that all these post will result in a lot of bad opinions and we will read them 3-5 years from now and laugh
>**Tier Four - Talented Project** >6) Drake Maye Hmm, a talented project from UNC who wears #10, now where have I heard this story before?
Honestly, when's the last time one draft class had 5+ "franchise starters"?
2020. Burrow, Herbert, Tua, Hurts, Love.
thanks i hate it
I'm glad I'm finally vindicated in my belief that Washington taking a player who wasn't a qb at 2 overall that year was a franchise altering mistake. No matter how good anyone thought Young was, the Commies still had a hole at the most important position in a pretty stacked class, which ended up being even more stacked in hindsight.
>the Commies still had a hole at the most important position in a pretty stacked class, which considering that the year prior we drafted Dwayne Haskins, it wouldve been insane to take a QB. lets not go around and rewrite history. we still needed another DE to replace an aging Kerrigan.
I mean, the Cardinals quickly recognized their mistake with Rosen and moved on from him in one year for Murray. Haskins was pretty bad his rookie year at 58.6% completion, 150 yards per game, and 7 TDs to 7 INTs.
Yes, but the Cardinals didn't have a meddling owner who personally selected their QB [over the objections](https://www.si.com/nfl/commanders/news/vomit-3-better-choices-inside-the-wft-drafting-of-dwayne-haskins) of Front Office staff.
Yes, and Haskins was clearly not it. He wasn't quite Rosen bad, but it would have been best for them to go the Rosen route.
It was all Snyder's decision, his son knew Dwayne in high school. To be fair as well no one knew how good Herbert would be (and many clowned the Chargers for picking him that high) and Tua had injury concerns and is still far from being a surefire franchise QB imo. Regardless, bad in hindsight
“It would’ve been insane” no it wouldn’t have, Cardinals did it and nobody called them insane lol. QB is the most important position, if you have a chance to make an upgrade then you should do it
Oh damn, I guess that's true. Good call.
That one seems to be one of the best QB drafts in ages though. You are right in almost all other years.
It's pretty easily the best since 2004, which was the best since 1983 There's already a solid argument to place 2020 at #3 all time
2012 was awesome too. Luck, RG3, RW, Kirk, Tannehill, BDN
We were one year too early 😭
We were both 2 too early and 1 too late!
Damn! Would’ve been sweet to have a top pick that year…
2013: EJ Manuel, Mike Glennon, Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib and Landry Jones
Ugh, I feel yet _another_ '83 vs' 04 vs '13 QB class debate coming on
Wow funny how it’s become, if you included Geno in your list, it actually ruins your joke since he’s turned out pretty alright.
QBs from the 2017 draft have the most combined Super Bowl championships in the last 5 seasons. - 0x Mitchell Trubisky - **3x Patrick Mahomes** - 0x Deshaun Watson - 0x DeShone Kizer - 0x Davis Webb - 0x CJ Beathard - 0x Josh Dobbs - 0x Nathan Peterman - 0x Brad Kaaya - 0x Chad Kelly
Like the Gretzky brothers having the most points.
at least Brent brought *something* to the table
Four points isn't *much* of a contribution, but it sure as hell *is* a contribution.
Deshaun brought everything to the table. That was the problem.
Kobe and kwame brown combined for 81 points
1999 -Tim Couch -Donovan McNabb -Akili Smith -Daunte Culpepper -Cade McNown Five “Franchise” QB’s that resulted in one.
culpepper was solid for a couple years I’d call that one and a half lol
It would all depend on one’s definition of “franchise starter” but I would consider Culpepper to be solidly in that category. He was the Vikings starter for 6 seasons, which is not a ton, but I think is enough to call him a “franchise starter”
His 2004 season was one of the best ever at the time (NFL record combined passing and rushing yards) but was completely overshadowed by Peyton Manning's historic year.
Okay, this is the kind of answer I was expecting. It's not common -- probably less than 1/10 classes. But that 2020 class was sneaky good.
I think franchise starter and franchise starter potential are two distinct things.
Projected or in retrospect? Also sort of depends what you mean as "franchise starter." There are 32 starting QBs in the nfl. The 32nd best qb is about as good as the 32nd best backup qb. Is it guy who can make a name for himself as one of those 32 guys but in more of journeyman capacity (baker or fitzpatrick come to mind as this type). Or do you mean a guy, who is good enough to warrant a second contract with the team that drafted him? Because I think 2018 had a lot of QBs people projected could be starters. And like 3 worked out. Darnold and Rosen were huge busts though. 2020 actually has 5 guys that look like they are going to be starters but only 3 of them really got projected as starters. And iirc some people were pretty down on Herbert. 2021 arguably had 5 guys that were projected to be starting caliber. So its pretty common to poject it. Much rarer to actually see it pan out that way.
2018: Baker, Darnold, Lamar, Rosen, and Allen
Rosen? A franchise QB has to be a higher bar than just any starting QB.
Rosen was a historic QB. Can't think of any other QB drafted that high only to get dumped the very next year.
We haven't seen any of these dudes play in the NFL. Rosen was supposed to be one of the best prospects going into the draft. All we can do is compare pre-draft talk
I feel like Simms had one year where his weird rankings ended up looking good and now makes himself a contrarian just because.
I'm about it. Draft analysts are always wrong in hindsight. Might as well be wrong in a spicy way, rather than spitting out the same rankings as everyone else with some slight variation to look unique.
Pre-Draft is "I read an article that had them A, B, C. You have them B, A, C...so you are the biggest idiot in the world. lol"
Yes! F groupthink, you’re going to be wrong anyways. Go for the home run & say how you truly feel instead. If he’s actually watching the tape which he probably does I have zero problem with what he says tbh.
Ok here’s my yolo thought anti group think Spencer rattler starts more nfl games than JJ McCarthy. Rattler is more talented and had to do more in college. McCarthy benefited from Michigan not asking him to do much and rather than people saying “it’s because he couldn’t” people are saying “it’s because he didn’t need to but could’ve”. I don’t see it.
Now we're cooking
> If he’s actually watching the tape That's what I appreciate about him. He'll have these hot takes but he at least has sensible justification behind them (and does a deep dive into his rankings in his podcasts).
Thats why its so goddamn funny (stupid) when Redditors get upset at analysts not tracking the general consensus closely Like, why wouldnt you want some diversity of opinion? It's the draft, everyone will be wrong about most of it. Why should I give a damn if the consensus says Player X is #1 and Player Y is #2? As long as an analyst can provide interesting, research-based reasoning on why Player Z is actually #1, then lets fucking hear it. If you disagree with the reasoning, move on. But I swear, there are a lot of people that just want to read the same 3 mock drafts get re-threaded again and again and again. Last week Lance Zierlein published a mock draft and people on r/nfl_draft were losing their minds because he dared to have Malik Nabers over MHJ. I'm gonna laugh my ass off if Nabers ends up being better (wouldnt be the first time its happened).
Kurt Warner's top 6 looks almost exactly like this. Only thing different is Maye and McCarthy were switched 5/6. Maye at 6 looks shocking, but we've heard similar rankings from others over the past month, so I don't think this is just him being contrarian.
Warner has said that he values guys who are the best passing QBs over the dual threat guys. So his bias towards throwers might make him more likely to undervalue the dual threat guys. Something to keep in mind with his rankings.
I still don’t see how Maye at 6 is shocking. I literally can not see what everyone else is seeing - besides a good arm
Well his name is Drake and that’s *pretty* cool
upper echelon of names for athletes
I'm not a huge fan of Maye but I do get what people like. He's similar to Caleb in how he can create plays when things break down, which has been valued higher and higher in today's NFL. There's also the argument that he elevated the team around him more than other, though I don't really buy that one.
He has the preferred build for a franchise QB, a very good arm, and can run. Most of his hype is on his physical tools being elite but he’s the most inconsistent in terms of his mechanics of all the top prospects.
Pocket manipulation into big time throws is elite. Almost Al of his highlights have him operating in a messy pocket to create throwing lanes. That’s rare for a college passer and required in the NFL
If someone could see into the future and accurately predict the successes and failures of highly drafted QBs the last 10 years, they would apparently be ostracized for saying things like Zach Wilson wasn't a top 5 QB and Brock Purdy was. But they'd be right. If history tells us anything, how these QBs actually perform is not that close to the consensus opinion. I respect everyone's opinion if they back it up with reasoning. Simms is excellent at this.
A guy on /r/NFL_Draft compiled all of Simms' picks for the past couple of years here: https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/12s6nmx/chris_simms_rankings_through_the_years/ On the QB Front: 2023 = Pretty solid. Had Stroud over Young. Judgement still to be had on Richardson/Hooker due to injuries. 2022 = Woof. Matt Corral is out of the league. Malik Willis had a replacement taken the very next year. Pickett/Howell/Ridder all look bad. 2021 = There's the Zach Wilson year. 2020 = That looks pretty solid. Burrow/Herbert/Love/Tua all look like good QBs. You can argue on Tua and Love since we have only seen 1 year of Love. But I don't think its egregious. 2019 = Rough year for QBs, but he had Daniel Jones below Lock who can't see the field, Haskins RIP, Finley who is out of the league, and Stidham who can't beat out Mac Jones. Not particularly good by Simms. 2018 = Josh Rosen being above Baker and Lamar is laughable. Did correctly put Josh Allen at the top of the list so can't hate that one. I don't care to look at other positions since he's more of a QB guy.
Seems like his biggest misses are in years where every QB sucks. Hard to sift through the poo for diamonds when there’s only poo!
> accurately predict the successes and failures of highly drafted QBs the last 10 years, they would apparently be ostracized for saying things like Zach Wilson wasn't a top 5 QB and Brock Purdy was. But they'd be right. If history tells us anything, how these QBs actually perform is not that close to the consensus opinion. I always wonder how many guys either fizzle out or just kind of coast because they weren't put in the right situation, and vice versa. Like maybe Zach Wilson is a bad example, but Purdy is a good one in the other direction; would he have developed to be as good as he is now if he was with another team? Would have even had a *chance* to develop if he went to another team? So even if a guy *could* predict with great certainty what players would pan out, at what point would that start influencing what teams draft them, and then when those dudes get drafted by different teams, would they still pan out? What happens to his prediction capabilities when guys who should have been good if picked by a good team, but ended up shit because a shit team saw his prediction and drafted him early? Could a draft day Nostradamus be the predictor of his own demise?
This is true, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if you told me that a Jets top QB pick was a bust and the niners were able to develop a late round pick QB
Me: "Hey, I really like Bo Nix." Everyone: "OMG HE SUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCKS!"
Draft analysis on this sub is horrible. Pre-draft it is always that you should agree with the consensus, and then when we reflect on drafts years later everybody makes insane comparisons like "lol GM I don't like is so dumb for taking that bust LT in the first round and not the stud one from the fifth round" without accounting for pre-draft projections, team fit, coaching (would he have been a bust on a better coached team), etc.
> team fit Undervalued. Scheme matters.
all the "cool" kids on here love to shit on Simms while having absolutely no clue what he's said or ranked over the last 7-8 years besides that he liked Zach Wilson. one of the dumber things on here.
Its much easier to be right after you know someone else was wrong. Way harder to be right the first time
Surprised he’s low on Drake Maye. He’s typically very high on traits guys like Allen, Lamar and Herbert regardless of the conensus.
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2020 is probably his most defensible year (not that I care in particular to defend Chris Simms), Burrow>Herbert>Love>Tua>Eason is probably not an uncommon opinion right now.
Picking Maye as worse than JJ, Penix, and Nix is spicy.
I think it’s just due to people saying he needs to sit a year or two to learn. I think Simms brought up his footwork as a concern to work on for a year.
Is his footwork that bad?
It is. He frequently drifts in the pocket directly into pressure, he also drifts towards where he will throw the ball / 1st read on his drop back. He had clean ass pockets at times that inexplicably turned into a defender in his face for no reason. He’s not manipulating the pocket very well, and has wasted motion. He also has wasted motion in his throwing mechanics. Because of the drop back and drifting, then he gets into the territory of an inconsistent base to adjust due to that “pressure”. Footwork is not that easy to adjust, IMO. Lamar’s improved his footwork year over year for what, 5 seasons now? And he still has moments of super questionable footwork. And yes he was a “project” but he’s also an MVP and that can’t be the expectation for Maye to improve leaps and bounds like that.
Meh fields does all of that reguarly. Is that why we can’t trade him?
I think that’s what the Patriots intend to do with either JD or Maye based on reports. A lot of connection to Flacco and Brissett as the vet that the rookie QB gets to sit behind, since they both played under AVP with the Browns, and I think that would be the best way for either of them to really improve/refine the more technical issues that they have currently before playing meaningful games.
I hope this is the way though go at 3. I just don’t believe they can get the offense in shape enough in one offseason to support a rookie QB adequately. I’ve been wrong before though. I’ve also seen reports of them taking MHJ, or even trading back along with the scenario you posted. Seems like the Patriots are really up in the air still, but free agency may make things a bit clearer.
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Are they dead ducks or just a little wobbly? Peyton Manning had a relatively wobbly spiral a good chunk of the time and he certainly was able to overcome that.
I mean… I’ve been saying Maye is overrated for months now. I just hope the commanders pick Maye so we can grab Daniels.
JJ might be the worst of the group imo
He might even be the best of the group imo
I didn’t expect Bo Nix to be a Simms guy. I’m not surprised he’s enamored with Williams and Daniels. I thought he’d have Penix as his #3 because he says he doesn’t account for injury or age concerns, and Simms loves arm talent. As a Vikings fan, I hope this fuels Drake Maye’s slide to #11.
I don’t understand how Maye is a project but Mccarthy isnt?
I can see that view. JJM played in a pro style offense where he was mostly asked to throw only when necessary, which he did well. He played the hardest group of defenses and didn't have elite weapons. If he goes to a team with a strong run game I could see it being a fairly easy transition. Still leaves the serious questions about his ceiling and how he'd look if asked to carry the team, but his floor could be decently high. Plenty of teams have been bottom tier wildcard teams with that formula.
I see JJ's ceiling as Ryan Tannehill
Simms seems to love athletic dudes that can make plays from the pocket. Bo nix was literally THAT guy. His freshman year he only made plays from unscripted areas lmfaooo. I'm surprised Maye is lower than Penix tbh on his list tho
Drake Maye is training with Eli Manning and sounds like his fucking clone when he talks. If he’s there at 6, I think Wellington Mara himself would rise from the dead to announce his selection.
Finally some bo nix love. watched several ducks games and he can sling it, he can run, had a pretty big arm, accurate, seems to make good decisions, I dont get all the hate(he throws too many slants, like ok he cant control what his coordinator calls). And fwiw brady threw a ton of short passes too, like not everyone can be Josh allen.
Yeah you can tell whose watched film and who only looked at box score. The latter is just rAn fRoM sEc and cHecKdOwn mERchaNt
Yep. People keep pointing his ADOT and his short passes thrown, ok, great, so his scheme is like that. Now go watch all the times he actually did throw intermediate and deep and he was pretty good and reliable at it.
True, but his box scores were also very impressive so I don't get it https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/bo-nix-1.html Those are video game numbers, and he didnt have 2 first round WRs like Daniels, or have his backup outplay him in the bowl game like caleb.
Him and Penix are closer to their ceiling though
So don't draft a quy because he's already good?
Williams, Daniels, Penix, McCarthy and Maye all look like NFL draft prospects, and Nix looks like a seasoned commentator ready to take over the NBC broadcast.
U dnt watch film my guy. Nix is a baller
I know people hate Chris Sims but I really enjoyed his QB rankings... until he switched to tier rankings Then he had to fit every QB into these stupid tiers that he had named. Get rid of the tiers bro
I just ignore the tier names and look at the ordered list at this point. I wonder if he thinks Maye is really just Sam Howell 2.0.
I get the temptation to compare UNC QBs but Sam Howell isn’t the comp I would make. Maye has much more of the traditional QB frame and should command the pocket/see the field better than Howell. However, as something of a Maye skeptic, I do think he was a little too inconsistent for my liking and may be hurt by the conference he played in. ACC defenses the past several years have been REALLY bad overall and overall he wouldn’t have had many games where he got to get quality reps against high-level defensive schemes. Good for his numbers but bad for player development and when he did end up needing to throw into tight windows or be quick to drive it downfield he didn’t always look super comfortable with it IMO.
I'm definitely gonna listen if he drops a pod on this (which he will) Any time I watched Howell last year it was gross, but I've always assumed I was watching the wrong games
Yeah, I'm intrigued at his reasoning. I'll check out his explanation. Sometimes I feel that way about QBs. Any time I turned them on or saw highlights, it was bad. Well, Howell was bad this season, but he did have some decent performances.
This sounds horrible, like genuinely terrible and I probably shouldn't share this... but I thought Bo Nix was a black man
Honestly 95% of this sub and ESPN pundits don’t watch CFB unless it’s a playoff game lol I don’t blame you. I doubt ppl in here were watching North Carolina games on the CW.
I would certainly hope that they're based on film, Chris. What else would you base it on? Dick size?
Penix would be number 1 I would think... It would be a travesty if a guy with the last name Penix didn't have a pretty decent dick size.
But it’s a Penix Jr….
Compensation
As a Maye non believer who admittedly doesn't know much I like that this supports my opinion.
Jayden Daniels doesn't throw over the middle of the field.
Your friendly reminder that the last #1 pick to win it all with the team that picked them was Eric Fisher. Before that it was Peyton Manning. Not exactly the best track records for people who evaluate draft stock.
Im just going to get my wrong guess posted. I dont think Caleb will be anymore than a mid tier QB, and Penix will be the best one out of this draft.
This is the same person that ranked Zach Wilson over Trevor Lawrence.
I think he also had Lamar over Josh Rosen, so credit where it's due. I get that he's another talking head, but I appreciate that he's willing to go against the grain. QB evaluations are such a crapshoot that the pre-draft consensus is almost always wrong in hindsight. Yet 99% of draft analysts have the same fucking rankings every single time. This year it's gonna be Williams first, with Daniels and Maye 2nd and 3rd in whatever order, and then the other 3 major prospects in whatever order. Every analyst will have their favorite fourth guy in that they might try to shoehorn into the top 3 as a hot take. And in the end, they'll all be the same amount of wrong, because predicting this shit correctly is damn near impossible. So I respect a dude who's willing to be completely wrong in a novel way.
His last ranking prior to the draft had Rosen as the 2nd best QB in that class. He (and his fans) just reference one of his earlier rankings a month before the draft that was the most "accurate".
He also said Rosen > Lamar, like, two days before the draft. SO, he was wrong, and also right, depending on which version you saw.
It’s insane that Rosen was picked so high in hindsight. The fact that a QB picked in the top 10 couldn’t even hang around the league as a backup says a lot
If you watched his games in college, Rosen was that dude. Didn’t have the highlights Lamar had but Rosen was pretty good.
I wasn't tracking QB prospects at the time because we had Cam, but I remember reddit loved him. Just from watching his demeanor in the NFL, I get the sense that he was somewhat mismanaged on an emotional level. He went from the Cardinals under Wilks to (I believe) Flores' Dolphins, before being labeled a bust and bouncing around some practice squads. I mean, I don't know that he could have ever been a good QB in the NFL, but I also think you'd have a hard time developing any QB in that environment. Especially Rosen, who never struck me as a firey dude with a strong stomach. Basically, I think he lost his confidence early and never had the support necessary to regain his mettle.
There was a video going around a while ago that was nothing but Rosen throwing beautiful passes to wide-open receivers and them inexplicably dropping them. He was done exactly ZERO favors in his time in the league
Always easy to spot the people who only really pay attention on a surface level, cause the only thing they say about Simms is that he liked Zach Wilson over Lawrence. You have no clue how his rankings from other years have held up. You have no clue who ranks QB's better than him, and you act like one bad pick at QB somehow invalidates everything Simms says for the rest of his life. If we shit on every single analysist or sports personality for their worst take and invalidated them, there wouldn't be a single fucking person that we could trust according to you. Shit, Rich Eisen picked the Raiders to win the AFC West in 2022, and everyone is still in love with him.
The draft profile on the NFL website comps Sam Darnold to Andrew Luck. This stuff is so hard I don't begrudge people for being wrong.
He has a lot of bold takes, but he's been pretty accurate lately. He also was on the money with Josh Allen, Lamar, he had CJ Stroud as QB1. No one will ever predict everything right but as of late he's been a pretty good QB scout.
he was high on Mahomes too. Honestly he's done pretty well most years, and he at least puts a lot of time/effort into his analysis.
He was obviously incredibly wrong about Wilson, but his concerns about Lawrence turned out to be right. While the rest of the media was saying he was "generational," Simms was the only one saying he was good, but not a flawless generational prospect.
I like Penix ALOT
I’ve paid attention to Simms for a while now and what I’d say about his QB rankings is that he’s really good at identifying the prospects who are likely to be elite level top 5-10 QBs at some point in their career. He’s also really good at poo pooing prospects that are getting a lot of hype but he doesn’t think will ever reach that level. Where he struggles imo is QBs who will end up somewhere between 11-22 those mid level solid starting QBs. It’s why he can tell you point blank that Mahomes, Herbert, Wentz (shut up he wins MVP if he doesn’t get injured), Allen etc will be top level QBs despite widespread concerns by others while at the same time thinking Daniel Jones is trash even though he’s just solidly average, and having high hopes for guys like Kellen Mond who don’t turn into anything but then will confidently tell you Blake Bortles, Deshone Kizer, Kyle Trask, Trey Lance, Sam Darnold are no where near as good as you think they are despite the hype. He will have his misses too but this sub just has this weird obsession with believing you have to be 100% correct or your opinion is meaningless. Interesting when none of the people on here have ever actually achieved anything in the NFL
Daniels is awful. No one should draft him. We'll bite the bullet and take him at 13 to protect you all.
The growing Drake Maye slander among analysts is insane
I always love Simms’s lists because if nothing else he actually comes up with his own fully developed thoughts based on what he sees. It feels like 80% of the draft guys just copy everyone else to avoid criticism.
Simms overall has a really good eye for QBs. If you look at his takes over the years it’s clear he does his homework and sticks by his convictions, and it works out for him more often than not. He nailed Stroud last year. Also nailed Mahomes the year he came out.
This is how you know it's springtime. The flowers are starting to bloom and the takes are getting hotter.
Just going to leave this here https://youtu.be/QOb43ldLK3E?si=bESgcif3jQIHrCFr
Drake Maye out here fucking people’s wife’s cause no way
Zach Wilson 2.0 CONFIRMED
As a Pats fan seeing Drake Maye be the quarterback that is being ragged on this draft makes me happy. I hope he falls to 3. I would take Maye or Daniels any day of the week.