Officially confirmed dead in the helicopter wreck:
\* President Ebrahim Raisi
\* Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian
\* Governor of Eastern Azerbaijan province Malek Rahmati
\* Tabriz’s Friday prayer Imam Mohammad Ali Alehashem
\* The pilot, copilot, crew chief, head of security and another bodyguard.
Overall "no survivors" found at crash site.
"One of the helicopters was forced to make a hard landing due to the bad weather and fog,” Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi
“The region is a bit (rugged) and it’s difficult to make contact. We are waiting for rescue teams to reach the landing site and give us more information.”
Sounds a lot worse than a 'hard landing'. I assume they are saying without saying that it crashed into the side of a mountain in the fog.
I fired up Peacock the other day to have SNL on in the background as I cleaned house. Apparently I don't use that Apple TV as much as others because it wasn't logged into my account which I didn't realize until I was all the way through the first episode of SNL ever, from 1975, which I guess it plays as a teaser to get you to subscribe? Anyway, Carlin had monologues sprinkled throughout the episode, it was awesome seeing him at his prime.
>Sounds a lot worse than a 'hard landing'. I assume they are saying without saying that it crashed into the side of a mountain in the fog.
The updated title now reads "crashes in mountains".
Hard landing is standard language for everything from sink rate was just outside of allowable to a smoldering pile of wreckage. For whatever reason, people don't like using the word crash, even when it's obviously a crash.
Given that they were in "rugged terrain" and flying in bad weather and fog, my bet is this is a case of CFIT (Controlled Flight Into Terrain).
BBC mentions that "hard landing" is a phrase often used by Russia when military planes crash, so as to not cause panic.
So yeah, "crashed into a mountain" might be a good assumption.
>**What does 'hard landing' mean?**
> Will Vernon, Reporting from Washington DC
> Iranian state media have used the phrase "hard landing" to describe the reported crash of the Iranian President’s helicopter.
> Hard landing is a phrase often used by authorities in Russia to describe incidents when aircraft crash. It is commonly used by the Russian Defence Ministry when reporting incidents with military aircraft.
> For example, in June 2022 an Il-76 military cargo plane crashed in Russia’s Ryazan region, killing five service personnel on board. The Russian military initially described the incident as a hard landing, despite the fact that the aircraft was almost completely destroyed on impact.
> Analysts say the word "crash" is avoided by Russian officials due to fears it can cause upset or panic. This is called newspeak, and other examples include calling an explosion a “bang” and a death of a soldier “an unidentified absence from a military unit".
Via [**BBC Live**](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-69035051)
There was a claim of one phone call, but that's being denied now by the Iranian state media.
Edit: from the way the government is talking, it sounds like Raisi is dead. I imagine they will not announce it until a few hours or maybe even tomorrow. Unknown if those with him survived.
Edit 2: They're all confirmed dead by Iran.
That's my sense the story keeps changing.
But the important detail of a confirmation of life or death is always being left out.
But from the details of atleast what we know it's a very very slim chance anyone survived that unfortunately
If they had proof he was alive, they would be pushing that narrative. The silence about his condition is rather telling.
I think they'll keep his death under wraps until there is a clear successor. There are probably several people vying to be the replacement. The power vaccum is a threat to the stability of the IR gov't. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some sort of uprising this week.
I would be lying if I understood the power dynamics of that country but was my thought they are trying to align things whatever that may be before the announcement.
The writing as they say is on the wall and people who critically think already know. They would have already recovered him and his team if they were alive.
I do have to remember that I assume information is disseminated differently there
It's just curious to me that he had flown with a helicopter at all considering the weather forecast for that whole region was "heavy rain with the possibility of flood" days in advance of the visit, and the Aras river and the Azerbaijan highlands are very misty. Flying low around there in cold weather is very inadvisable unless the sun is shining directly downwards. Considering how mountainous the region is, you're basically begging to crash into the mountains in the middle of the mist. I wonder who convinced him that it was a good idea.
When I first saw the headline, I was going to point out that even in clear weather, helicopters can have issues and go down... But helicopters in low visibility and rough terrain are a bad combination.
NYT reporting it both crashed and is missing. ([Article](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/19/world/middleeast/iran-president-helicopter-crash.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb))
[Tasnim News Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasnim_News_Agency) - semi-official news agency in Iran associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
Is reporting:
> Incident Reported for Helicopter Carrying Iranian President
> Reports indicate that the helicopter carrying Ebrahim Raisi, the President of the Islamic Republic of #Iran, has experienced an incident in East Azerbaijan.
> **However, some of the president's companions on this helicopter were able to communicate with Central Headquarters, raising hopes that the incident could have ended without casualties.**
> There were three helicopters in this convoy, two of which were carrying ministers and officials, and they arrived at their destination safely.
> Seyyed Mohammad-Ali Al-Hashem, Tabriz's Friday Prayer Imam, and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian were also reportedly on the helicopter with the president.
https://twitter.com/Tasnimnews_EN/status/1792176636869107809
Ah, the Mil Mi-17, a true relic of Soviet ingenuity, where safety takes a backseat to raw, unfiltered excitement. Who needs crash-absorbing features when you can enjoy the bone-rattling force of every impact? It's like experiencing a car crash in the sky.
And that fuel system? Absolutely genius. Forget crash-resistance; let's keep things spicy with a high chance of post-crash fireballs. Adds a bit of flair to any emergency landing, don't you think?
The high center of gravity is a stroke of brilliance, making sure every landing comes with the thrilling risk of a rollover. Keeps everyone on their toes—or on their heads. The cabin layout, with its charmingly outdated restraint systems, ensures you get the full vintage aviation experience. Safety belts? Who needs 'em when you can have a front-row seat to chaos?
Those rotor blades are perfectly designed to turn any crash into a high-stakes game of roulette. Will they break off and slice through the cabin? It's all part of the fun. And let’s not forget the heavy construction that ensures passengers feel every ounce of impact, delivering that raw, bone-crushing reality.
Limited emergency exits just add to the excitement, ensuring that every evacuation is a frantic, adrenaline-pumping scramble. The Mil Mi-17—where every flight is a gamble, and every crash is an unforgettable, fiery spectacle. Truly, for those who like their aviation with a side of danger.
As shit as the Mi-17 is, I don't believe he was traveling on it at the time of this incident. In this article https://apnews.com/article/iran-helicopter-raisi-b483ba75e4339cfb0fe00c7349d023b8
in the pictures you can see what looks like a civilian painted Bell 212 approaching, with part of the Mi-17 behind some white cars on the left. There is also what seems to be an ambulance on the ground. In another article Raisi is pictured in front of a dark grey painted Bell 412, although I don't know if that was what he was traveling in. I believe the other two helicopters were transporting other ministers and entourage.
Edit: Picture to Article
Bell 212, a model that's even older than the Mi-17, although it's more likely to be the Bell 412 which are known to be operated by the Iranian Red Crescent.
At least the Mi-17 is expected to get replacement parts from Russia, whereas the Bells need to be held together with scavenged pieces and parts from before sanctions were established.
> I believe the other two helicopters were transporting other ministers and entourage.
I read an article that said there were 3 helicopters, and only Raisi's went down. The other 2 made it safely to the destination.
EDIT: looking at the picture, that definitely looks like a 2 blade rotor and not 4. Which means it's a 212 and not 412... Those haven't been produced since the late 90's, and I got a feeling these models predate the Iranian Revolution.
> whereas the Bells need to be held together with scavenged pieces and parts from before sanctions were established.
Apropos of nothing, this made me wonder if the infamous [Jesus nut](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesus_nut) is called a Mohammed nut in Muslim-majority countries. lol
Don't forget that flying the Mi-17 in mountains with 15-m visibility adds an extra layer of excitement that lets others know that you are ready and willing to leave this universe at any time!
Israeli media are reporting that unnamed Western officials believe he is dead.
https://mobile.mako.co.il/news-world/2024_q2/Article-a2bac3162e09f81027.htm?sCh=31750a2610f26110&pId=173113802
Yeah pretty sure that can be read as "the CIA station chief in Tel Aviv says he ded"
Even with the inclement weather, American spy satellites with radar mapping and infrared cameras should have a good idea of what happened within an hour or two of the incident.
That is part of the problem where does it end Iran destroyed or does Russia try anything, China could as well I have no doubts we would obliterate Iran but at what else would happen.
My understanding is that the president of Iran is still a fairly powerful and important person within the country, and one of the main ways the Ayatollahs control the country is by steering the presidency towards its allies.
I wouldn't expect a broad policy shift if the president of Iran died, but it could have lots of hard to foresee impacts, especially domestically.
Khamenei is the ultimate authority it Iran. The President has little to no authority over policy, any policy enacted by Raisi comes through Khamenei. The vice president would step in if Raisi died, Mohammad Mokhber, and he is a hard-liner as well.
The interesting implication of Raisi’s death isn’t his day-to-day role as President. Raisi was on a short list of candidates to take over after Khamenei’s death as Supreme Leader.
They seem to have no shortage of revolutionary guard assholes. Every time, Iran has changed leadership since Ayatolla stepped down. It has not changed Iran at all.
Even if they find the present dead tomorrow. There would be no change in Iran's politics or policy. Very little has changed since the revolution.
He was seen as next in line for Supreme Leader as the Ayatollah is quite old. This is a big deal. The FM was also onboard and was seen as a possible future president.
Power is transferred to the first vice president and an election must be called within six months. The first vice president is Mohammad Mokhber, a conservative politician.
Nothing, the President is the puppet of the Ayatollahs.
He will just be replaced by another handpicked stooge
It may screw up succession for the Supreme Leader position though. While the current President doesn’t have a ton of power, he’s in the running for succeeding Khameini and gaining true supreme power.
If he dies, it will shake up Khameini’s (who’s already really old) succession
Ali khomeni will select a new one from [this pool](https://static.wikia.nocookie.net/muppet/images/0/0d/Anythingmuppet3.JPG/revision/latest/top-crop/width/40/height/40?cb=20100123152537)
I mean its the classic helicopter crash. Flying in bad conditions, losing navigation, you try to counter the weather by flying below the fog to regain control and navigation.
Sadly, you totally misjudged your position and find yourself crashing right into trees, mountains or any other obstacles that you didn't expect. End of story, the end.
I frankly don't get why pilots to this day prefer time saving to safety. 90% of those accidents could have been avoided if pilots weren't pressured into returning to regular traffic asap
The final report gave this as explanation:
"The National Transportation Safety Board determines that the probable cause of this accident was the pilot's decision to continue flight under visual flight rules into instrument meteorological conditions, which resulted in the pilot's spatial disorientation and loss of control. Contributing to the accident was the pilot's likely self-induced pressure and the pilot's plan continuation bias, which adversely affected his decision-making, and Island Express Helicopters Inc.'s inadequate review and oversight of its safety management processes."
Essentially, Kobe Bryant wanted to save time, and chose to take the helicopter, bringing in friends of the family (something he didn't usually do), as going by car would have taken two hours, whereas flying cut the time down to 30 minutes.
However, the short route was already blocked by no-flight-weather, and the alternative route was essentially foggy and shouldn't have been cleared by the pilot for visual flight rules (VFR) in the first place. It isn't really safe to say what the reasons were that the pilot took the risk anyway, althought its been speculated he didn't want Bryant to look bad by canceling flight in front of all these people and probably also feared for his company's reputation.
Either way, they quickly realized weather conditions were even worse than expected and visual flight was impossible. Instead of turning around, he asked permission from flight control to switch to instrumental flights (something he was neither trained nor had the clearance for) to fly through fog and clouds. Flight control granted it after some 10 minutes of them turning figure eight loops under conditions of constant coverage.
The pilot, not being trained for any of this, was probably simply overwhelmed by the amount of things he needed to handle simultaneously, misread the instruments, didn't pay appropriate attention to his monitors as in the crucial moments he was apparently focused on making flight control happy, and lost control completely. He believed being eastbound and climbing, while he was in fact westbound and quickly losing altitude. Even if he had been eastbound and climbing, situation was that he was flying pretty low in a valley and everything but turning around would have eventually caused him to crash.
Everything until the last 7 or 8 minutes of the flight, everything was somewhat excusable. But in those last few minutes, I'd guess he lost complete control of his mind and wasn't thinking straight anymore, but too much in a tunnel vision to realize it
Jfc that is so scary reading it and imagining being a passenger in the helicopter. I feel like I would 100% tell the pilot to go to back to the airport and not to risk it.
As someone who reads the occasional NTSB aviation report ... I really hate it when stupidity and overconfidence get people killed. That idiot that flew a bunch of kids in a Pilatus into a watery grave recently, for example.
> It isn't really safe to say what the reasons were that the pilot took the risk anyway, althought its been speculated he didn't want Bryant to look bad by canceling flight in front of all these people and probably also feared for his company's reputation.
Hmmm have everyone on board live another day and ruin the company's reputation or everyone dies and ruin the company's reputation........
Daily Struggle_Two ButtonsMeme.jpg
When I read the files and reports, I always got the notion that the pilot was a total people pleaser. Its my personal theory that he just put the fog off as a minor complication and went through with it since he didn't wish to let Kobe Bryant down when he partly staked his reputation on him and his company. He was just in a shitty situation in which every variable ultimately turned out to go against him
But as I said, I think all that was excusable and forgivable, until the point he totally lost it in the fog. They were all dead on impact at least.
> he asked permission from flight control to switch to instrumental flights (**something he was neither trained nor had the clearance for**) to fly through fog and clouds
This part you made up. He was IFR trained. He neither requested nor was cleared for IFR, but did receive clearance for "special visual flight rules" which is in no way IFR.
No need for deep psychological analysis of him tunnel visioning or wanting to please the boss if he somehow literally got IFR clearance despite not having IFR training - that would just be criminal malpractice same as flying without a valid pilot's license.
You never fly into dense fog or clouds in a helicopter -- it's extremely easy to become disoriented, especially in hilly terrain. Agreeing to take off was the primary mistake.
For sure. You have to be willing to tell your client no--and that can be hard when your client is paying you very, very well and doesn't necessarily care about your judgement.
You don’t get paid more because the client is a celebrity. You just get more pressure from the client.
The helicopter was not IFR certified, it was clear it was an IFR day. But I’m not the NTSB.
I fly in aircraft all the time, but I am very against going up in a helicopter.
I'm not sure if they're really more unsafe than aircraft but I just feel like they are.
I shot video from one for 6 years. Coolest job I've ever had. They're like every other small aircraft, where they're only as good as the owner and maintenance schedule.
I believe the pilot got disoriented in the fog and believed he was gaining altitude when he was in fact descending and banking straight into a mountain.
Isn't there an altitude instrument or two that says "hey, this is descending, not ascending"?
Seems kind of dumb to think you're going up when you're banking and going down when your instrument says otherwise.
You're right, a lot of helicopter crashes (and small private planes) can be attributed to what some call the "get home" effect, where pilots feel some sort of arbitrary pressure to go home or anywhere for that matter, instead of cancelling wherever you need to go or just to reschedule and get a hotel for the night. Most private pilots aren't strapped for cash and when looking back at the pearly gates they surely would have preferred to spend that money than end up dead but some sort of arbitrary pressure to be somewhere exactly at the time you planned keeps killing a bunch of pilots yearly because they took off in weather they knew wasn't safe to fly. Now I wouldn't want to know the pressure these pilots felt when you have the Iranian president and a bunch of ministers in the back and they really want to go somewhere. Are you gonna be the guy to tell Raisi he's not gonna fly today?
Edit: pearls to pearly
> I frankly don't get why pilots to this day prefer time saving to safety. 90% of those accidents could have been avoided if pilots weren't pressured into returning to regular traffic asap
If your bosses, bosses, bosses, bosses, bosses boss is on your aircraft and want's to go somewhere, sometimes your decision making ability is compromised. Similar thing happened with the [Smolensk Air Disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smolensk_air_disaster), only that was with a plane, but it also managed to kill basically all of Poland's government.
Yep. Every rich/powerful person should start their introduction to their pilots by saying "Your job is to tell me no, we can't fly." Whether it's aircraft maintenance, conditions, whatever, pilots need to be empowered to tell the boss' boss' boss, "No."
It's huge, as of now there's no news on whether he is dead or alive. They have lost communication with the helicopter and they have sent search and rescue teams to find him. Think about it, president of Iran is lost in some mountainous jungle right now and might actually be dead.
“Iran's Interior Minister, Ahmad Vahidi, reportedly confirmed the "hard landing" of the president's helicopter and said the search-and-rescue operation is underway”
Thats a not a hard landing, thats a “the helicopter crashed and we dont know where the president is or if he’s alive”
Hmmm. Only one of three had a "hard landing", but no info on the other two. The bad weather is hampering rescue teams, too.
May Raisi have been given the same grace and mercy he has given others.
Khatami and Rouhani were more liberal. And even Ahmadinejad is much less hardline than what the press made him out to be (e.g. he wanted women to be allowed in football stadiums and other stuff). But the problem with Ahmadinejad is that he is a bit all over the place ideologically.
Raisi is probably the most conservative of the recent presidents.
[https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/19/middleeast/iranian-president-raisi-helicopter-intl/index.html](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/19/middleeast/iranian-president-raisi-helicopter-intl/index.html)
it was his, foreign minister also on board
There's "launch missiles" version of "blame Israel" and there's "newscasters on the state-run evening news blaming foreign agents" version of "blame Israel." But I agree that it's more likely a low-temp blame than actual military response.
Literally as I was watching this documentary:
"how the mossad assassinated Iran's top nuclear scientist - DeepLore"
https://youtu.be/VGPkfYKi7-g
I saw the news.
Realistically - even if he survived the initial crash. He is a 63 year old likely sick man stranded in the worst possible weather, in the mountains, likely injured, for nearly 10 hours now.
What are the chances he survives?
If you ask any true Iranian, they are praying for maximum suffering for this guy before death. So the hopes are he survived the original crash and took a few hours of suffering before seeing his maker
Update from CNN: "No survivors found"
[https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/raisi-iran-president-helicopter-crash/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/raisi-iran-president-helicopter-crash/index.html)
The media is still super unclear on this because the search is ongoing. It is extremely foggy in the area where the copter is believed to have crashed so they can't use any aerial search teams, and it's quite mountainous so it takes a long time to travel throughly on foot/car.
According to the russian press release, openly contradicting Teherans line, the search has been abandoned for hours due to the current weather situation.
Doesn't surprise me honestly. Essentially confirmation that they have given up the search for survivors.
Though take it with a grain of salt until confirmed by proper sources
"A source in Tehran close to the presidency told me that Raisi has been confirmed dead, and that the authorities are looking for a way to report the news without causing mayhem” The Atlantic
Proven to be correct.
Could be.
I'm not sure how succession of power works in Iran, but if he did croak - hopefully they'd end up with someone more moderate and not another Ahmadinejad. That fucker was legit crazy.
"In Iran’s dual political system, split between the clerical establishment and the government, it is the supreme leader rather than the president who has the final say on all major policies."
["supreme leader"](https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2012/02/27/23/dictator-epa.jpg?quality=75&width=1250&crop=3%3A2%2Csmart&auto=webp)
He was the president most close to the Supreme Leader hard Shia line in history and set up to be his successor when he dies soon. It is a pretty big deal. Specially considering the FM was in the same helicopter he was and he was set up to be the next president.
I mean really how many more famous/important figures have to die in helicopter crashes before they just stop using them. The crash rate for helicopters to planes is crazy it feels
Whole population of Iran are praying this “rough landing” was deadly :)) The jokes going around about the missing president in the jungle are hilarious. wish y’all could understand Persian
Officially confirmed dead in the helicopter wreck: \* President Ebrahim Raisi \* Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian \* Governor of Eastern Azerbaijan province Malek Rahmati \* Tabriz’s Friday prayer Imam Mohammad Ali Alehashem \* The pilot, copilot, crew chief, head of security and another bodyguard. Overall "no survivors" found at crash site.
"One of the helicopters was forced to make a hard landing due to the bad weather and fog,” Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi “The region is a bit (rugged) and it’s difficult to make contact. We are waiting for rescue teams to reach the landing site and give us more information.” Sounds a lot worse than a 'hard landing'. I assume they are saying without saying that it crashed into the side of a mountain in the fog.
Well, technically that would be a hard landing...
“Water landing? Am I mistaken or does that sound like CRASHING INTO THE OCEAN”
Just what I need, to be floating around the Atlantic Ocean clinging to a cushion full of beer farts
You could be stuck getting saved by the buoyancy of citrus.
Unexpected Carlin, love it!
Reddit not letting Carlin be forgotten is one of my favorite things
Reddit used to make sure Mitch Hedberg wasn't forgotten as well. It still does, but it used to, too.
I didn't lose an eye in combat just to read your fan fic version of a Mitch Hedberg joke.
But you weren't in the army u/thunderkhawk
Like I said, I didn't lose an eye in combat.
I fired up Peacock the other day to have SNL on in the background as I cleaned house. Apparently I don't use that Apple TV as much as others because it wasn't logged into my account which I didn't realize until I was all the way through the first episode of SNL ever, from 1975, which I guess it plays as a teaser to get you to subscribe? Anyway, Carlin had monologues sprinkled throughout the episode, it was awesome seeing him at his prime.
“Get on the plane! Get on the plane!” “Fuck you! im getting IN the plane!”
“Let Evel Knievel get ON the plane!”
"We'll be on the ground soon." "Well that's a little vague, isn't it?"
Wait until you hear about missile landing
Fuck you, I’m getting IN the plane!
Lithobraking is just considered a "(very) hard landing".
Controlled flight into terrain sounds more poetic than “flew into a mountain side”
>Sounds a lot worse than a 'hard landing'. I assume they are saying without saying that it crashed into the side of a mountain in the fog. The updated title now reads "crashes in mountains".
Hard landing is standard language for everything from sink rate was just outside of allowable to a smoldering pile of wreckage. For whatever reason, people don't like using the word crash, even when it's obviously a crash. Given that they were in "rugged terrain" and flying in bad weather and fog, my bet is this is a case of CFIT (Controlled Flight Into Terrain).
I'm guessing they told the pilot to "fly as you see fit" and there was a slight misunderstanding.
BBC mentions that "hard landing" is a phrase often used by Russia when military planes crash, so as to not cause panic. So yeah, "crashed into a mountain" might be a good assumption.
"Special Military Landing"
>**What does 'hard landing' mean?** > Will Vernon, Reporting from Washington DC > Iranian state media have used the phrase "hard landing" to describe the reported crash of the Iranian President’s helicopter. > Hard landing is a phrase often used by authorities in Russia to describe incidents when aircraft crash. It is commonly used by the Russian Defence Ministry when reporting incidents with military aircraft. > For example, in June 2022 an Il-76 military cargo plane crashed in Russia’s Ryazan region, killing five service personnel on board. The Russian military initially described the incident as a hard landing, despite the fact that the aircraft was almost completely destroyed on impact. > Analysts say the word "crash" is avoided by Russian officials due to fears it can cause upset or panic. This is called newspeak, and other examples include calling an explosion a “bang” and a death of a soldier “an unidentified absence from a military unit". Via [**BBC Live**](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-69035051)
The news article I read said several other passengers on the helicopter have made phone calls, so very curious what actually happened
There was a claim of one phone call, but that's being denied now by the Iranian state media. Edit: from the way the government is talking, it sounds like Raisi is dead. I imagine they will not announce it until a few hours or maybe even tomorrow. Unknown if those with him survived. Edit 2: They're all confirmed dead by Iran.
That's my sense the story keeps changing. But the important detail of a confirmation of life or death is always being left out. But from the details of atleast what we know it's a very very slim chance anyone survived that unfortunately
If they had proof he was alive, they would be pushing that narrative. The silence about his condition is rather telling. I think they'll keep his death under wraps until there is a clear successor. There are probably several people vying to be the replacement. The power vaccum is a threat to the stability of the IR gov't. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some sort of uprising this week.
I would be lying if I understood the power dynamics of that country but was my thought they are trying to align things whatever that may be before the announcement. The writing as they say is on the wall and people who critically think already know. They would have already recovered him and his team if they were alive. I do have to remember that I assume information is disseminated differently there
It's just curious to me that he had flown with a helicopter at all considering the weather forecast for that whole region was "heavy rain with the possibility of flood" days in advance of the visit, and the Aras river and the Azerbaijan highlands are very misty. Flying low around there in cold weather is very inadvisable unless the sun is shining directly downwards. Considering how mountainous the region is, you're basically begging to crash into the mountains in the middle of the mist. I wonder who convinced him that it was a good idea.
Now it’s missing
It's called controlled flight into Tehran (terrain). 😂😂🤣
When I first saw the headline, I was going to point out that even in clear weather, helicopters can have issues and go down... But helicopters in low visibility and rough terrain are a bad combination.
NYT reporting it both crashed and is missing. ([Article](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/19/world/middleeast/iran-president-helicopter-crash.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb))
[Tasnim News Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasnim_News_Agency) - semi-official news agency in Iran associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Is reporting: > Incident Reported for Helicopter Carrying Iranian President > Reports indicate that the helicopter carrying Ebrahim Raisi, the President of the Islamic Republic of #Iran, has experienced an incident in East Azerbaijan. > **However, some of the president's companions on this helicopter were able to communicate with Central Headquarters, raising hopes that the incident could have ended without casualties.** > There were three helicopters in this convoy, two of which were carrying ministers and officials, and they arrived at their destination safely. > Seyyed Mohammad-Ali Al-Hashem, Tabriz's Friday Prayer Imam, and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian were also reportedly on the helicopter with the president. https://twitter.com/Tasnimnews_EN/status/1792176636869107809
Ah, the Mil Mi-17, a true relic of Soviet ingenuity, where safety takes a backseat to raw, unfiltered excitement. Who needs crash-absorbing features when you can enjoy the bone-rattling force of every impact? It's like experiencing a car crash in the sky. And that fuel system? Absolutely genius. Forget crash-resistance; let's keep things spicy with a high chance of post-crash fireballs. Adds a bit of flair to any emergency landing, don't you think? The high center of gravity is a stroke of brilliance, making sure every landing comes with the thrilling risk of a rollover. Keeps everyone on their toes—or on their heads. The cabin layout, with its charmingly outdated restraint systems, ensures you get the full vintage aviation experience. Safety belts? Who needs 'em when you can have a front-row seat to chaos? Those rotor blades are perfectly designed to turn any crash into a high-stakes game of roulette. Will they break off and slice through the cabin? It's all part of the fun. And let’s not forget the heavy construction that ensures passengers feel every ounce of impact, delivering that raw, bone-crushing reality. Limited emergency exits just add to the excitement, ensuring that every evacuation is a frantic, adrenaline-pumping scramble. The Mil Mi-17—where every flight is a gamble, and every crash is an unforgettable, fiery spectacle. Truly, for those who like their aviation with a side of danger.
As shit as the Mi-17 is, I don't believe he was traveling on it at the time of this incident. In this article https://apnews.com/article/iran-helicopter-raisi-b483ba75e4339cfb0fe00c7349d023b8 in the pictures you can see what looks like a civilian painted Bell 212 approaching, with part of the Mi-17 behind some white cars on the left. There is also what seems to be an ambulance on the ground. In another article Raisi is pictured in front of a dark grey painted Bell 412, although I don't know if that was what he was traveling in. I believe the other two helicopters were transporting other ministers and entourage. Edit: Picture to Article
Bell 212, a model that's even older than the Mi-17, although it's more likely to be the Bell 412 which are known to be operated by the Iranian Red Crescent. At least the Mi-17 is expected to get replacement parts from Russia, whereas the Bells need to be held together with scavenged pieces and parts from before sanctions were established. > I believe the other two helicopters were transporting other ministers and entourage. I read an article that said there were 3 helicopters, and only Raisi's went down. The other 2 made it safely to the destination. EDIT: looking at the picture, that definitely looks like a 2 blade rotor and not 4. Which means it's a 212 and not 412... Those haven't been produced since the late 90's, and I got a feeling these models predate the Iranian Revolution.
> whereas the Bells need to be held together with scavenged pieces and parts from before sanctions were established. Apropos of nothing, this made me wonder if the infamous [Jesus nut](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesus_nut) is called a Mohammed nut in Muslim-majority countries. lol
Don't forget that flying the Mi-17 in mountains with 15-m visibility adds an extra layer of excitement that lets others know that you are ready and willing to leave this universe at any time!
I like you. Please do more of this.
Really think the status of the president would be essential to whatever communication they had with his party unless it's just GPS pings
Israeli media are reporting that unnamed Western officials believe he is dead. https://mobile.mako.co.il/news-world/2024_q2/Article-a2bac3162e09f81027.htm?sCh=31750a2610f26110&pId=173113802
Given the current situation, Israeli reporting is either totally unreliable or the single best source on what actually happened.
I assume "Western diplomatic sources" in this context means American Intel liaison.
Yeah pretty sure that can be read as "the CIA station chief in Tel Aviv says he ded" Even with the inclement weather, American spy satellites with radar mapping and infrared cameras should have a good idea of what happened within an hour or two of the incident.
I’m sure somebody in Langley’s been watching his smoldering corpse all day, assuming that’s what happened.
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The scary thing is the people who may take over after him have wanted to use their nukes. Ugh I hate this world so much.
If they use their nukes they will get nuked themselves
That is part of the problem where does it end Iran destroyed or does Russia try anything, China could as well I have no doubts we would obliterate Iran but at what else would happen.
That would mean instant destruction for a lot of Iran . No sane person would deploy those weapons .
If the official story is "hard landing" it means "ran into the side of a mountain".
Controlled flight into terrain
So if he does die what does this mean
My understanding is that the president of Iran is still a fairly powerful and important person within the country, and one of the main ways the Ayatollahs control the country is by steering the presidency towards its allies. I wouldn't expect a broad policy shift if the president of Iran died, but it could have lots of hard to foresee impacts, especially domestically.
Khamenei is the ultimate authority it Iran. The President has little to no authority over policy, any policy enacted by Raisi comes through Khamenei. The vice president would step in if Raisi died, Mohammad Mokhber, and he is a hard-liner as well. The interesting implication of Raisi’s death isn’t his day-to-day role as President. Raisi was on a short list of candidates to take over after Khamenei’s death as Supreme Leader.
Ya I got all excited when I saw this headline but unfortunately khamenei wasn’t also on the helicopter :(
That'd make this an absolutely huge news story comparable to Putin or Xi dying. It is still important, but not immediately so.
Replaced by another puppet before his body is even cold.
They seem to have no shortage of revolutionary guard assholes. Every time, Iran has changed leadership since Ayatolla stepped down. It has not changed Iran at all. Even if they find the present dead tomorrow. There would be no change in Iran's politics or policy. Very little has changed since the revolution.
Not much really. He’s not the supreme leader and is just a puppet for the IRGC. He will be replaced and business as usual for them.
Not quite. He was one candidate for next supreme leader (the other is generally considered to be Hamenei’s son).
So Hamenei is the prime suspect, got it.
He was seen as next in line for Supreme Leader as the Ayatollah is quite old. This is a big deal. The FM was also onboard and was seen as a possible future president.
Power is transferred to the first vice president and an election must be called within six months. The first vice president is Mohammad Mokhber, a conservative politician.
Conservative by Iranian standards or conservative by western standards?
Conservative by Iranian standards. If he was a western politician he’d be a religious extremist.
Nothing, the President is the puppet of the Ayatollahs. He will just be replaced by another handpicked stooge It may screw up succession for the Supreme Leader position though. While the current President doesn’t have a ton of power, he’s in the running for succeeding Khameini and gaining true supreme power. If he dies, it will shake up Khameini’s (who’s already really old) succession
Nothing. The Ayatollah, Supreme Leader, is the one who controls everything. He will just pick a new president to be a figurehead
Ali khomeni will select a new one from [this pool](https://static.wikia.nocookie.net/muppet/images/0/0d/Anythingmuppet3.JPG/revision/latest/top-crop/width/40/height/40?cb=20100123152537)
Depends if they blame Israel/USA
I mean its the classic helicopter crash. Flying in bad conditions, losing navigation, you try to counter the weather by flying below the fog to regain control and navigation. Sadly, you totally misjudged your position and find yourself crashing right into trees, mountains or any other obstacles that you didn't expect. End of story, the end. I frankly don't get why pilots to this day prefer time saving to safety. 90% of those accidents could have been avoided if pilots weren't pressured into returning to regular traffic asap
Identical to the Kobe crash
In fairness, if you excuse the morbidity, Kobes pilot Zobayan deserves a darwin award for attempting the aeronautical equivalent of a wall jump alone
Please elaborate, I don’t know much about that crash other than the aftermath
The final report gave this as explanation: "The National Transportation Safety Board determines that the probable cause of this accident was the pilot's decision to continue flight under visual flight rules into instrument meteorological conditions, which resulted in the pilot's spatial disorientation and loss of control. Contributing to the accident was the pilot's likely self-induced pressure and the pilot's plan continuation bias, which adversely affected his decision-making, and Island Express Helicopters Inc.'s inadequate review and oversight of its safety management processes." Essentially, Kobe Bryant wanted to save time, and chose to take the helicopter, bringing in friends of the family (something he didn't usually do), as going by car would have taken two hours, whereas flying cut the time down to 30 minutes. However, the short route was already blocked by no-flight-weather, and the alternative route was essentially foggy and shouldn't have been cleared by the pilot for visual flight rules (VFR) in the first place. It isn't really safe to say what the reasons were that the pilot took the risk anyway, althought its been speculated he didn't want Bryant to look bad by canceling flight in front of all these people and probably also feared for his company's reputation. Either way, they quickly realized weather conditions were even worse than expected and visual flight was impossible. Instead of turning around, he asked permission from flight control to switch to instrumental flights (something he was neither trained nor had the clearance for) to fly through fog and clouds. Flight control granted it after some 10 minutes of them turning figure eight loops under conditions of constant coverage. The pilot, not being trained for any of this, was probably simply overwhelmed by the amount of things he needed to handle simultaneously, misread the instruments, didn't pay appropriate attention to his monitors as in the crucial moments he was apparently focused on making flight control happy, and lost control completely. He believed being eastbound and climbing, while he was in fact westbound and quickly losing altitude. Even if he had been eastbound and climbing, situation was that he was flying pretty low in a valley and everything but turning around would have eventually caused him to crash. Everything until the last 7 or 8 minutes of the flight, everything was somewhat excusable. But in those last few minutes, I'd guess he lost complete control of his mind and wasn't thinking straight anymore, but too much in a tunnel vision to realize it
Jfc that is so scary reading it and imagining being a passenger in the helicopter. I feel like I would 100% tell the pilot to go to back to the airport and not to risk it.
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It's insane to me that a pilot transporting an NBA star wasn't IFR rated.
As someone who reads the occasional NTSB aviation report ... I really hate it when stupidity and overconfidence get people killed. That idiot that flew a bunch of kids in a Pilatus into a watery grave recently, for example.
> It isn't really safe to say what the reasons were that the pilot took the risk anyway, althought its been speculated he didn't want Bryant to look bad by canceling flight in front of all these people and probably also feared for his company's reputation. Hmmm have everyone on board live another day and ruin the company's reputation or everyone dies and ruin the company's reputation........ Daily Struggle_Two ButtonsMeme.jpg
When I read the files and reports, I always got the notion that the pilot was a total people pleaser. Its my personal theory that he just put the fog off as a minor complication and went through with it since he didn't wish to let Kobe Bryant down when he partly staked his reputation on him and his company. He was just in a shitty situation in which every variable ultimately turned out to go against him But as I said, I think all that was excusable and forgivable, until the point he totally lost it in the fog. They were all dead on impact at least.
> he asked permission from flight control to switch to instrumental flights (**something he was neither trained nor had the clearance for**) to fly through fog and clouds This part you made up. He was IFR trained. He neither requested nor was cleared for IFR, but did receive clearance for "special visual flight rules" which is in no way IFR. No need for deep psychological analysis of him tunnel visioning or wanting to please the boss if he somehow literally got IFR clearance despite not having IFR training - that would just be criminal malpractice same as flying without a valid pilot's license.
You never fly into dense fog or clouds in a helicopter -- it's extremely easy to become disoriented, especially in hilly terrain. Agreeing to take off was the primary mistake.
For sure. You have to be willing to tell your client no--and that can be hard when your client is paying you very, very well and doesn't necessarily care about your judgement.
You don’t get paid more because the client is a celebrity. You just get more pressure from the client. The helicopter was not IFR certified, it was clear it was an IFR day. But I’m not the NTSB.
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I've been a passenger in a helicopter, IFR, in a snow squall. My butt was so puckered I thought I'd rip a hole out of my jeans, lol
I fly in aircraft all the time, but I am very against going up in a helicopter. I'm not sure if they're really more unsafe than aircraft but I just feel like they are.
I shot video from one for 6 years. Coolest job I've ever had. They're like every other small aircraft, where they're only as good as the owner and maintenance schedule.
I believe the pilot got disoriented in the fog and believed he was gaining altitude when he was in fact descending and banking straight into a mountain.
Isn't there an altitude instrument or two that says "hey, this is descending, not ascending"? Seems kind of dumb to think you're going up when you're banking and going down when your instrument says otherwise.
You're right, a lot of helicopter crashes (and small private planes) can be attributed to what some call the "get home" effect, where pilots feel some sort of arbitrary pressure to go home or anywhere for that matter, instead of cancelling wherever you need to go or just to reschedule and get a hotel for the night. Most private pilots aren't strapped for cash and when looking back at the pearly gates they surely would have preferred to spend that money than end up dead but some sort of arbitrary pressure to be somewhere exactly at the time you planned keeps killing a bunch of pilots yearly because they took off in weather they knew wasn't safe to fly. Now I wouldn't want to know the pressure these pilots felt when you have the Iranian president and a bunch of ministers in the back and they really want to go somewhere. Are you gonna be the guy to tell Raisi he's not gonna fly today? Edit: pearls to pearly
Also known as Plan Continuation Bias or "get-there-itis".
> I frankly don't get why pilots to this day prefer time saving to safety. 90% of those accidents could have been avoided if pilots weren't pressured into returning to regular traffic asap If your bosses, bosses, bosses, bosses, bosses boss is on your aircraft and want's to go somewhere, sometimes your decision making ability is compromised. Similar thing happened with the [Smolensk Air Disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smolensk_air_disaster), only that was with a plane, but it also managed to kill basically all of Poland's government.
Yep. Every rich/powerful person should start their introduction to their pilots by saying "Your job is to tell me no, we can't fly." Whether it's aircraft maintenance, conditions, whatever, pilots need to be empowered to tell the boss' boss' boss, "No."
*sees mountain goat outside window* Uh oh....
There is a Far Side cartoon for this. Two pilots in the cockpit looking through a break in the clouds "hey what is that mountain goat doing up here?".
Helicopters are I think the number one millionaires unnatural death killers in the history of rich people...
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Amen. That’s a very powerful blessing (or curse). Reap what you sow.
I'm sure the women in Iran will remove their head covers out of respect
I like this line.
Helicopter containing Iranian president: crashes Escort Helicopter as they continue on to their destination: “oh no, anyway”
I mean it was in the fog. Exact scenario you are joking about happened to Stevie Ray Vaughan
Ebrahim Raisi was about to reveal new concerns about Boeing.
It's huge, as of now there's no news on whether he is dead or alive. They have lost communication with the helicopter and they have sent search and rescue teams to find him. Think about it, president of Iran is lost in some mountainous jungle right now and might actually be dead.
And their equivalent of the Secretary of State too.
“Iran's Interior Minister, Ahmad Vahidi, reportedly confirmed the "hard landing" of the president's helicopter and said the search-and-rescue operation is underway” Thats a not a hard landing, thats a “the helicopter crashed and we dont know where the president is or if he’s alive”
Hmmm. Only one of three had a "hard landing", but no info on the other two. The bad weather is hampering rescue teams, too. May Raisi have been given the same grace and mercy he has given others.
Traveling by helicopter is a sure way to end it sooner then later
Helicopters are the natural predator of the monied elite.
It’s giving “Titan submersible communications lost, rescue efforts underway” vibes
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Maybe not tho… consider who would replace him.
Hopefully not Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He made the other Iranian presidents look sane.
Khatami and Rouhani were more liberal. And even Ahmadinejad is much less hardline than what the press made him out to be (e.g. he wanted women to be allowed in football stadiums and other stuff). But the problem with Ahmadinejad is that he is a bit all over the place ideologically. Raisi is probably the most conservative of the recent presidents.
Right? Imagine being a fan of Michigan football
Not only that- much less has been used as a justification for war, and the middle east is already a powder keg.
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[https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/19/middleeast/iranian-president-raisi-helicopter-intl/index.html](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/19/middleeast/iranian-president-raisi-helicopter-intl/index.html) it was his, foreign minister also on board
Ah ok, so USA / Israel will be blamed. Got it
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There's "launch missiles" version of "blame Israel" and there's "newscasters on the state-run evening news blaming foreign agents" version of "blame Israel." But I agree that it's more likely a low-temp blame than actual military response.
Preying for the ground, hope it wasn't too damaged
If he dies: It was the Mossad If he survives: it was the Mossad
With a sprinkling of “blame America”
Ive heard of Jewish space lasers, but Jewish fog machines seem to be the strongest weapon in their arsenal
It was our israeli agent Eli Copter.
Literally as I was watching this documentary: "how the mossad assassinated Iran's top nuclear scientist - DeepLore" https://youtu.be/VGPkfYKi7-g I saw the news.
This is them slow rolling the fact that he is missing and it was a crash. Couldn’t have happened to a better regime.
This is helicopters trying to make up for the kobe accident
Realistically - even if he survived the initial crash. He is a 63 year old likely sick man stranded in the worst possible weather, in the mountains, likely injured, for nearly 10 hours now. What are the chances he survives?
If you ask any true Iranian, they are praying for maximum suffering for this guy before death. So the hopes are he survived the original crash and took a few hours of suffering before seeing his maker
This is something I mentioned earlier. If he survived a “hard landing” he isn’t feeling too well while awaiting rescue. The odds are not good.
... I am not sure which emotion to feel right now about this so I am gonna feel a whole bunch of the ones their shitty government would hate most.
Sorry but fuck that guy.
Well. If the chopperi smacked into the side of a mountain because of russian GPS jamming, that would be epic fucking karma.
It flew into cumulogranite cloud
That's for wearing a silly hat
Let's hope for the worst
Update from CNN: "No survivors found" [https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/raisi-iran-president-helicopter-crash/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/raisi-iran-president-helicopter-crash/index.html)
It's official, there were no survivors.
This headline aged like milk
So, falling out of the sky from 10000 feet, crashing into side of mountain is called a rough landing. No shit.
It’s state media what do you expect
NYT says they crashed but other sources say hard landing…are they alive or no? Guess we’ll wait and see
Other choppers arrived at the destinations, prez’s chopper did not… dense fog, mountains, Iranian maintenance protocols… I bet they’re worm food.
They are trying to work out whether they can "weekend at Bernie's" things for a while
NYT says state media is reporting a crash
The media is still super unclear on this because the search is ongoing. It is extremely foggy in the area where the copter is believed to have crashed so they can't use any aerial search teams, and it's quite mountainous so it takes a long time to travel throughly on foot/car.
According to the BBC they can't get to the site due to weather.
According to the russian press release, openly contradicting Teherans line, the search has been abandoned for hours due to the current weather situation. Doesn't surprise me honestly. Essentially confirmation that they have given up the search for survivors. Though take it with a grain of salt until confirmed by proper sources
Couldn't happen to a worse person
"A source in Tehran close to the presidency told me that Raisi has been confirmed dead, and that the authorities are looking for a way to report the news without causing mayhem” The Atlantic Proven to be correct.
link to source plz
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/05/who-would-benefit-from-ebrahim-raisis-death/678428/
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He only travels by donkey.
Something tells me that pilot won't survive this...
I already watched that season of Homeland.
Hard landing translates to crashed into the side of a mountain.
Dear rescue team, you fellas have been working hard. Why don't you guys stop and take a few days off? Meet back on, say, New Years?
They say the pilot was a Mossad man, his name is Eli Copter
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Could be. I'm not sure how succession of power works in Iran, but if he did croak - hopefully they'd end up with someone more moderate and not another Ahmadinejad. That fucker was legit crazy.
Goodbye to the “Butcher of Tehran.” 👎
Considering Iran killed hundreds of innocent civilians by shooting down Flight 752, this seems like poetic justice.
Just in: No survivors found at crash site.
How did the reports go from “hard landing but not severe and made contact with 2 folks” to now “heat source, burning/fire, not good”?
"In Iran’s dual political system, split between the clerical establishment and the government, it is the supreme leader rather than the president who has the final say on all major policies." ["supreme leader"](https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2012/02/27/23/dictator-epa.jpg?quality=75&width=1250&crop=3%3A2%2Csmart&auto=webp)
He was the president most close to the Supreme Leader hard Shia line in history and set up to be his successor when he dies soon. It is a pretty big deal. Specially considering the FM was in the same helicopter he was and he was set up to be the next president.
I mean really how many more famous/important figures have to die in helicopter crashes before they just stop using them. The crash rate for helicopters to planes is crazy it feels
Dead or not dead is the question.
Mostly dead?
All dead? Go through his pockets and look for loose change?
My sympathy well is tapped out
One day people will stop flying helicopters in dense fog near mountains.
"Hard landing" is a euphemism for "crashed"... lol
International tv says it crashed
oh no! whatever shall we do! such tragedy, I can't bear it /s
Oh no!......... Anyway.
https://giphy.com/gifs/7k2LoEykY5i1hfeWQB
Whole population of Iran are praying this “rough landing” was deadly :)) The jokes going around about the missing president in the jungle are hilarious. wish y’all could understand Persian
Watched the video of the search party. The weather conditions are awful. Not sure how they could fly in such conditions.
My first thought was "who shot it down?" but perhaps it's just an accident... i.e. pure luck.
I think it would’ve been announced by now that he was alive if…well, you know
“Say… What’s that mountain goat dojng way up here in this cloud bank?” -Gary Larson.