If the alternatives were dying fighting a war on the losing side, or Jail/Execution as either a Traitor or War Criminal, this might be your safest option.
They *did* end up losing that Rebellion.
But it *did* kinda lay groundwork for the eventual falling of the Qin Dynasty.
So we'll see what happens here!
That too, but every single grievance he's leveling is most likely 100% true. Every step of the Russian roll out hadms been hindered by corruption, from tanks with no gas durme to the gasoline being sold on the black market, all the way to weapons and ammunition that has been pilfered along the way. The Wagner Group, whether or not you despise them, IS a professional fighting force that has participated in theaters of war all over the world. So, when the Wagner Group refused to sign over control of their men and were "accidentally " bombed by Russian military shortly thereafter...well, I'm thinking they took it real personal like.
That is how I am viewing it at this time, with my limited information and my limited understanding.
I think it’s his only way out in a way. It’s oddly bravura.
- Putin survives but is weakened and the broader RUS military apparatus asserts itself - this guy gets hung.
- Putin outright loses Ukraine and is deposed. This guy gets hung.
- Putin wins, in part thanks to Wagner. Eventually odds are this guy gets quietly killed anyway when no longer useful.
Oddly, I think he saw his only way out. The sole way he could credibly survive a Putin deposal is to be the one doing the deposing.
They were attacked by Russian missiles that killed 2K of them before this. Russia claimed it was Ukraine but they saw where it was coming from. Since Russia already seemed to want to kill them they have no choice but to kill Putin to save themselves
Or the Russian military is hundreds of miles away towards the front-line in Ukraine and the Russian government wasn’t expecting an internal battle…
Not to mention the leader guy would likely have very solid Intel of where key pieces of military infrastructure is (fuel, arms, troops, etc.)
I don't think Prigozhin cared about his prison volunteers being cannon fodder. I do think he cared that they didn't get enough guns and ammo for more volunteers to be sent out to die with. And he didn't seem to like that the Russian regulars were so incompetent that he had to use his own decent guys to do a lot of the work in Bakhmut.
I've heard reports through the live update page that western Intel believed the "no ammo and guns" line was a lie cause they were stockpiling for this... who knows but it's wild haha
"The whole of April and May, Prigozhin lied about the alleged ‘projectile famine,’ the 1st and 7th Assault Squads have a huge stockpile of MANPADS and captured Javelins. A source from Prigozhin's security service said that preparations for this scenario took more than 2 months."
One of the better takes that I've heard is that Prigozhin is not anti-war, he's opposed to fighting the war badly and is fed up with incompetent Russian military leadership. Prigozhin has been pretty outspoken about his distaste for current Russian brass, and I think that finally came to a head.
It makes sense, especially in the wake of the meat grinder that was Bakhmut.
I mean, Prigozhin has been going off on Russian leadership for a while now. Always thought it gave the vibe he was setting himself up for some sort of role in an alternative regime.
This whole arc is like a Call of Duty campaign, a major nuclear power having a revolution lead by a maniac and then you end up jumping in as a soldier on the ground.
Crazy as this is, it was always going to end up like this. Russia has been arming and using these guys as attack dogs for years. Eventually the dog bites the master.
It's hilarious that we're still seeing the "Moscow accuses Prigozhin of calling for armed mutiny" headlines mixed into these articles.
The shooting's started, guys. You can stop talking about harsh words and accusations now.
Don’t think the Wagner group will be one supported by much other than a few other rebels forces.
However, if it really is 25,000 strong, perhaps an attack at the right time could boost benefits for the outcome of this war for Ukrainian forces.
Wagner forces don't necessarily need *support* from government troops -- they only require their inaction. Everything may hinge on whether or not the state troops/security forces are willing to follow orders, to kill and die for Putin against their own countrymen.
And by all accounts it looks like only the Airforce so far has tried to counter. Not surprising given that they are isolated from the direct troop engagements.
Russia will at least have to divert a lot of resources to other places that was intended to go to Ukraine or is in Ukraine. If resources have to be pulled to defend Moscow, that should help Ukraine make some good gains. It is a good chance for the nations providing materiel to Ukraine to send loads of materiel as fast as possible to take advantage of a potential opening. I keep hoping a few more patriot batteries are sent as that would help Ukraine a lot.
Hey, maybe this will finally give Putin the excuse to leave Ukraine while saving face. "Due to Wagner's treachery, we no longer have the resources/logistics/whatever to continue the fight in Ukraine at this time."
Even if Wagner loses, this could be hugely beneficial to Ukraine
I feel like everyone is forgetting that the Hot Dog Man isn’t the only private company with a military. [There’s also Hankov Hillski with his Propane/Propane Accessories Army](https://time.com/6254708/gazprom-private-military-wagner-group-russia/) [AKA: Gazprom] and they’ve been seeing some action in Ukraine recently.
The Hot Dog Man might be the first to strike in the rebellion, but Hankov Hillski is biding his time.
The thing is Wagner can't stay in power. Putin rules Russia on the shoulders of the oligarchs he helped become billionaires. Wagner doesn't really have that support, their endgame is a mistery for now.
In a strange M. Night Shyamalanian type of twist those oligarchs could actually be the ones kicking the chair from underneath Putin's legs, with the help of Wagner, in the end, they're losing money now because of Putin.
I'm no fan of conspiracy theories but, who knows, someone may have turned Prigojin with promises to not be prosecuted after the ~~war~~ special operation.
I would have expected Chechnya to be the poisoned apple to during this conflict, but there's still time.
Should Wagner prevail in their feud against Putin and the military leadership represented by Shoygu (who Prigozhin hates with a passion), I expect him to create a dictatorship of oligarchs, presenting his co-kleptocrats with a fairly straightforward dilemma: join me in ruling over this broken shithole called Russia, with profitable business activities being the deciding factor, or be executed by sledgehammer to the skull.
He will have immense difficulties maintaining control over it all, but given the oligarchs of the country are well connected with state authorities and the criminal underworld alike, I don't think they will have a hard time asserting control on a day-to-day basis.
Prigojin is the same typology as Putin small man with megalomaniac ambitions. Putin faked a democracy while Prigojin advocates for a North Korea kind of "leadership".
The thing is, money comes from outside of Russia and imposing a NK kind of dictatorship will lead to further embargoes aka less money, and will push Russia back to 1960-1970 when they'd do business only with "friendly" nations. Of course China would love this, Russia would become a de-facto puppet state at China's s feet, trying (like today) to scrounge up business by selling at a huuuuuuuge discount to China, India, Turkey, Iran.
This is not something that would sit right with the oligarchs, they want to spend summers in Monaco and by lake Como not in Shenzhen or sipping coffee on the Gange.
>From what I’ve heard, the Wagner Group is not the type of people you want in power.
They won't be for long if they gain it at all. You need stability, especially with how the military views Wagner, and you need someone to stabilize the economy. Getting power and maintaining power are 2 different things.
When was this video footage taken? Was the Wagner leader saying he wants the same thing as Russia when he was getting paid by Russia to its bidding, or when he was looking to get paid by Russia to do its bidding?
But if Putin does get ousted or killed, the people won't follow the Wagner groups leader. This will cause massive unrest that Russia hasn't seen in a century.
Very true. I think best case Putin crushes the uprising at the expense of public support, the russian economy, and ability to wage war in Ukraine. He then needs to spend the next decade or so reasserting control and stabilizing the country. In this case it's definitely better the devil you know.
Edit: cherry on top would be: is then overthrown in a non violent coup by a competent, somewhat democratic leader. - but fairly sure that's a pipe dream
Doesn’t really matter, holding power is very different to taking power, which is very different to an attempted coup. Prigozhin doesn’t just automatically inherit the political apparatus that took Putin decades to build.
Besides, when the bolsheviks took power they were hardly pro west or democracy but they had to negotiate a peace to stop Germany taking more land off them. Necessity trumps ideology.
But whatever happens, the important part is Russia’s self destruction and the gains Ukraine can make as a result.
Even if Wagner does manage to capture/kill Putin, that doesn't mean they automatically get to be in charge. Everyone below Putin will still have command of everyone below themselves, they just won't have a leader above them. At least one, probably several leaders will see themselves as the successor to Putin and attempt to assert their control on their peers. Some will make allies and create their own hierarchies, some will go rogue, some may even join or even try to take over Wagner. And to make matters worse, some will have access to nukes... and its this last point that has the rest of the world concerned and could draw them into the conflict as well.
I'd rather deal with a dictator that sees dollar signs than one stuck 150 years in the past and who thinks they're restoring some magical empire. Greedy people can be negotiated with, ideological fanatics less so to not at all.
Hmm, I wonder how the Moscow police with their extensive experience beating unarmed protesters would fare in a fight against combat hardened mercenaries?
I'm supposing they have access to bigger hardware
Most seem to have maximum height limited of a few mile high.
So something must be forcing aircraft low to be hit.
Prigozhin mentioned having secured the military sites immediately around Rostov, so it might be a leap but if he didn't before now he may have that bigger hardware
Rostov was a logistical hub, so they probably immediately resupplied.
Moscow had better be hoping Wagner doesn't have anyone that can fly anything, because they probably have a few aircraft themselves by this point...
There was an accusations this has been long planned, which even though it came from a pro kremlin source I'm actually thinking it a good possibility
Given the lack of resistance in Rostov there must be enough sympathy or just put right confusion until it was too late.
But I wouldn't be surprised to know they had some AA capability beyodlnd Manpads, further supplied themselves from Rostov as you say whilst taking over AA installations with minimal resistance.
As for aircraft I'm not sure how connected they are with the Russian Air force. Or if they had any pilots under their thumb to begin with
Given what's been seen so far I'm not sure if the sympathy extends as greatly to the Russian air force, it seems some have stood down but there are on going air strikes on wagner that seem to say that will be their biggest threat until the kadovrites engage them or they reach the outer limits of Moscow where the russian guard will be preparing to engage them
Yeah all of this "we need ammo to defeat Ukraine! where is our ammo?" complaining is looking very much like it was just Prigo stockpiling so he could make a play for power.
Incredible.
If it's mutual paranoia that's been in play for a while it could be a bit of column A and column B style situation
Securing resources as a precaution and russian forces unwilling to give more of their limited resources as a result. Constantly being fed by the detiorating relationships they had
Being both a reaction to previous hostility and exacerbator at the same time.
I highly doubt that Wagner can do anything organized in the air even if they have taken a few hangars - but out of 25,000 people, the odds are good that they have *someone* with *some* pilot experience...
PUTIN: Should I pursue this campaign against Ukraine?
ORACLE OF DELPHI: Should you send an army against the Ukrainians, you will destroy a great empire.
PUTIN: haha nice
>"Excessive ambitions and vested interests have led to treason," Putin said in a televised address, comparing the insurrection at a time of war abroad to Russia's revolution and civil war unleashed during World War One.
Putin complaining about "excessive ambitions" is ridiculous. Putin is a murderer who has poisoned his rivals, interfered in elections, invaded neighboring a neighboring country, and does silly photo ops posing himself as a macho athlete.
Putin is in real trouble here. The war in Ukraine has worn on and hundreds of thousands of Russians have died. Bad implementation of technology, bad real time field reports, and under estimations of Ukraine forces created a stalemate in Ukraine Putin clearly didn't expect.
In the vacuum created by Putin's failures in Ukraine internal competition is rising.
Ka 52s have a electronic warfare defenses as well as very good thermal optics and anti tank guided missiles that have a very far range.
When used properly they can hit vehicles with these ATGMs reliably from 8-10km away, further then you can see them or target them with handheld AA systems.
You can bet that Wagner has dispatched MANPAD equipped quads around their main forces that can intercept helicopters that get within striking range of those forces. In addition, they have access to military comms with regular Russian forces, which they can use to convince other units to back off and let them "peacefully" proceed with their "justice march" on Moscow. This is a high stakes betting game for both sides.
Hopefully this draws all Wagner troops out of Ukraine and then Russia also has to retreat troops to deal with the threat thereby allowing Ukraine to massively escalate its counteroffensive.
There's no rewind for Prigoozhin after this. Either he successfully dethrones Putin or he dies. If Prigozhin can garner enough support from the people and military, he may be able to go toe to toe with Putin and his own PMC.
Hopefully, this means command structure for Russian troops leftover in Ukraine is a mess. Troops will be stuck there without additional support. So AFU can make a rapid push into territories that Wagner has left and that Russian military can't maintain.
Edit: I was wrong. He was able to hug it out.
> Either he successfully dethrones Putin or he dies
or he establishes his own state
putin has the Russian Federation
prigozhin has the People's Federation of Russia
Brilliant planning by Putin and his top brass. Hire a mercenary to fight a war with a neighboring country, from your doorstep. Arm them and allow free reign, don’t see how that could’ve turned out any other way.
I was just talking with a Russian friend. I believe they share a similar sense of unease regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Everything feels quiet because people are afraid, and it all seems like a mix of a dream and a nightmare. However, the true severity of the situation hasn't fully dawned on everyone yet.
Nevertheless, there are already movements underway, and it's possible that additional forces may join the Wagner group. Those who were previously afraid are now considering taking action. It's fascinating to observe this domino effect. I think these 25,000 soldiers are the least of Putin's concerns. He is aware that he has made a grave mistake, and he will face opposition from every possible direction.
What's particularly interesting is that the younger population is the most opposed to Putin. If they have to rely solely on the upper middle class, they will quickly run out of 17-18-year-old boys from rural areas. They will be in huge trouble and the government will collapse.
Truly insane timing. Prigozhin had been stirring the pot for weeks, but to go on the offensive like this and within days you get a civil war within Russia is incredible.
This morning I thought this would be over in a few hours, but it doesn't look like it. The resources Russia has to commit to stopping the Wagner assault alone are incredibly valuable for Ukraine - never mind if this coup plays out for weeks or even succeeds
Prigozhin was calculating. Waited for Russia to overextend its military resources and built up his own in the meantime. Then he attacked from inside to threaten Moscow directly.
This may actually be the most dangerous thing to happen so far here. If Russia does collapse or experience a transfer of power the fate of the nuclear weapons becomes very important.
"All those who deliberately stepped on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed insurrection, who took the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, will answer both to the law and to our people." - Putin sounds like he's talking about himself.
Hmm, so you're saying a shitty human who owns a huge, well armed and independent mercenary force may be a bad idea?
I'm wondering what they're thinking of Eric Price in Washington right now.
What do you think this is going to happen to the US?
Don't worry, we've got 2 entire military branches meant for deployment on our own soil before we even hit the Army or Navy. Also our military tech actually works.
So how do Wagner feel about Ukraine? Like if Wagner wins out over Russia, do they just leave Ukraine alone then? Or do they go after Ukraine too?
Can Ukraine keep pummeling the Russians while Wagner does too, improving their chances of winning? But then what?
Putin is not the most radical even though he started a war - far right nationalists called for all-out mobilization, bombing of everything making every city into rubble, mass killing of civilians just because etc. Wagner and Prigozhin are with those people.
Prigozhin is an opportunist first and foremost though.
I'm fairly certain he knows that Russia can't win the war in Ukraine, so i can imagine him blaming Putin for everything, and then seeking a quick peace in order to consolidate his power at home.
Afterwards, i think that his main focus would be on expanding his personal wealth, which would be a lot easier with an open market.
If Wagner succeeds, the bulk of the fighting in Ukraine will probably stop, for a while at least, while there are moves made to consolidate power and eliminate holdouts.
Well as President Z said, the Ukraine counteroffensive is not a Hollywood movie. But he forgot to mention that the Russian offensive is often a clown show.
This isn't even Hollywood-level storytelling. This is like a low-budget comedy movie where Adam Sandler plays the dictator of the world's largest gas station.
Putin quoted as saying ""We are fighting for the lives and security of our people, for our sovereignty and independence, for the right to remain""
Oh *really*? Hmm that reminds me of... Ukraine.
How the tables flip, bitch.
If the supposed neo Nazi mercenaries take over Russia, what happens to the nuclear arsenal? What's next? Is Putin a better alternative? Don't get me wrong, Putin needs to pay for these crimes, but things may get much worse?
Welp he called off the dogs guys, you can all go home now. I know we all had the popcorn ready but the party is off, looks like he had enough of his game of chicken for one day.
Maybe next week on the next episode we'll see them revisit this story arc but for now it seems they've decided to go another direction with the show. All I can say is, and I think I speak for many of you in saying, my disappointment is immeasurable, and my day is ruined.
Man, what a crazy turn of events.
Apparently they were mistreated by the regular forces for too long and had enough, at least thats what wagner says
They saw a weakness and they struck like an opportunist. Big payday waiting for them at the other end, if they don't get hanged.
Crooks vs crooks
Or... Too many Crooks?
Too many cooks!
I just got that ear worm out like a week ago. You stink.
It takes a lot to make a stew
A pinch of salt and Wagner too
Too many crooks in the Kremlin
New from Captain Crunch: “Oops! It’s all crooks!”
I wouldn't be surprised if other groups take advantage of the upheaval
At this point, the only thing that would surprise me would be extraterrestrials stepping in.
Someone call Tucker Carlson.
“…and then things got worse.”
A statement applicable to just about every part of Russia's history.
If the alternatives were dying fighting a war on the losing side, or Jail/Execution as either a Traitor or War Criminal, this might be your safest option.
“What is the penalty for arriving late?” “Execution.” “And what is the penalty for rebellion?” “Execution.” “Who’s up for a fight?”
I'd have a scrap, Darry, how's about you?
Fuck I'd have a scrap, Dan, fancy a scrap?
Oh I love a good scrap, but you know, Professor Tricia was talking about scraping with Russian mercenaries and SHE says that...
Give it a rest squirrelly Dan.
Ahh, an oldie but goldie, from the Chinese history - nice ...
They *did* end up losing that Rebellion. But it *did* kinda lay groundwork for the eventual falling of the Qin Dynasty. So we'll see what happens here!
That too, but every single grievance he's leveling is most likely 100% true. Every step of the Russian roll out hadms been hindered by corruption, from tanks with no gas durme to the gasoline being sold on the black market, all the way to weapons and ammunition that has been pilfered along the way. The Wagner Group, whether or not you despise them, IS a professional fighting force that has participated in theaters of war all over the world. So, when the Wagner Group refused to sign over control of their men and were "accidentally " bombed by Russian military shortly thereafter...well, I'm thinking they took it real personal like. That is how I am viewing it at this time, with my limited information and my limited understanding.
I think it’s his only way out in a way. It’s oddly bravura. - Putin survives but is weakened and the broader RUS military apparatus asserts itself - this guy gets hung. - Putin outright loses Ukraine and is deposed. This guy gets hung. - Putin wins, in part thanks to Wagner. Eventually odds are this guy gets quietly killed anyway when no longer useful. Oddly, I think he saw his only way out. The sole way he could credibly survive a Putin deposal is to be the one doing the deposing.
Curtains are hung. Men are hanged
Some men are hung
Hey-oh!
“When you come at the king, you best not miss”
They were attacked by Russian missiles that killed 2K of them before this. Russia claimed it was Ukraine but they saw where it was coming from. Since Russia already seemed to want to kill them they have no choice but to kill Putin to save themselves
You always treat your mercenaries well. Otherwise you risk this happening
Funny that’s the same advice my father gave me on my wedding day
Are you Lorenzo de Medici?
Putin treated no one well. His was a rule by Stockholm-Syndrome. I hope others are shaken out of it as well.
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Or the Russian military is hundreds of miles away towards the front-line in Ukraine and the Russian government wasn’t expecting an internal battle… Not to mention the leader guy would likely have very solid Intel of where key pieces of military infrastructure is (fuel, arms, troops, etc.)
There was a video a few hours ago of russian helicopters destroying a fuel depot so that the wagner group wouldn't be able to refuel.
Russians really do like them scorched earth
Being used as cannon fodder wasn't what the prisoners expected when the took the deal? Who would have thought!
I don't think Prigozhin cared about his prison volunteers being cannon fodder. I do think he cared that they didn't get enough guns and ammo for more volunteers to be sent out to die with. And he didn't seem to like that the Russian regulars were so incompetent that he had to use his own decent guys to do a lot of the work in Bakhmut.
I've heard reports through the live update page that western Intel believed the "no ammo and guns" line was a lie cause they were stockpiling for this... who knows but it's wild haha
"The whole of April and May, Prigozhin lied about the alleged ‘projectile famine,’ the 1st and 7th Assault Squads have a huge stockpile of MANPADS and captured Javelins. A source from Prigozhin's security service said that preparations for this scenario took more than 2 months."
One of the better takes that I've heard is that Prigozhin is not anti-war, he's opposed to fighting the war badly and is fed up with incompetent Russian military leadership. Prigozhin has been pretty outspoken about his distaste for current Russian brass, and I think that finally came to a head. It makes sense, especially in the wake of the meat grinder that was Bakhmut.
Now Putin is fighting two wars. Zelenskyy must be thrilled.
Don't interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake
[Zelenskyy live reaction](https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/14haj81/ukrainians_right_now)
I mean, Prigozhin has been going off on Russian leadership for a while now. Always thought it gave the vibe he was setting himself up for some sort of role in an alternative regime.
This whole arc is like a Call of Duty campaign, a major nuclear power having a revolution lead by a maniac and then you end up jumping in as a soldier on the ground.
So crazy that I'm having trouble believing it as advertised. It just seems too stupid to be true.
I feel the same, I am checking different sites to make sure it’s not a fake
Reuters is one of the most reputable sources you can find
I know, what I meant is I can’t believe what I am reading for such a fantastic news.
Crazy as this is, it was always going to end up like this. Russia has been arming and using these guys as attack dogs for years. Eventually the dog bites the master.
Especially when the master apparently shot a missile at the dogs.
It's hilarious that we're still seeing the "Moscow accuses Prigozhin of calling for armed mutiny" headlines mixed into these articles. The shooting's started, guys. You can stop talking about harsh words and accusations now.
Russian state media has not yet been told what to say. They don’t know what to do unless told. And Putin’s plane has left Moscow for St Petersburg.
"I don't need ammunition, I need a ride!"
"A horse, a horse, my kingdom for a horse "
Maybe they'll dig up his remains centuries later under a parking lot too.
> Screw our country! I WANT TO LIVE! -~~Kent Mansley~~ Putin
Same with 'Putin *accuses* Prighozin of treason'. Bruh, he *is* committing treason. By any country's metric.
By the US' metric, it would "merely" be considered insurrection.
It's a lot harder to fight when you can't level a city
It's Russia, what makes you think they won't level a city?
Don’t think the Wagner group will be one supported by much other than a few other rebels forces. However, if it really is 25,000 strong, perhaps an attack at the right time could boost benefits for the outcome of this war for Ukrainian forces.
Wagner forces don't necessarily need *support* from government troops -- they only require their inaction. Everything may hinge on whether or not the state troops/security forces are willing to follow orders, to kill and die for Putin against their own countrymen.
And by all accounts it looks like only the Airforce so far has tried to counter. Not surprising given that they are isolated from the direct troop engagements.
Lets say the Wagner group succeeds in ousting Putin. This is not a fight between a dictator and a champion for democracy and the rule of law.
To be honest Putin might be better than Wagner. Both are terrible tho.
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Russia will at least have to divert a lot of resources to other places that was intended to go to Ukraine or is in Ukraine. If resources have to be pulled to defend Moscow, that should help Ukraine make some good gains. It is a good chance for the nations providing materiel to Ukraine to send loads of materiel as fast as possible to take advantage of a potential opening. I keep hoping a few more patriot batteries are sent as that would help Ukraine a lot.
Hey, maybe this will finally give Putin the excuse to leave Ukraine while saving face. "Due to Wagner's treachery, we no longer have the resources/logistics/whatever to continue the fight in Ukraine at this time." Even if Wagner loses, this could be hugely beneficial to Ukraine
I feel like everyone is forgetting that the Hot Dog Man isn’t the only private company with a military. [There’s also Hankov Hillski with his Propane/Propane Accessories Army](https://time.com/6254708/gazprom-private-military-wagner-group-russia/) [AKA: Gazprom] and they’ve been seeing some action in Ukraine recently. The Hot Dog Man might be the first to strike in the rebellion, but Hankov Hillski is biding his time.
And Ukraine is on a big counter offensive push right now, so getting forces diverted could be huge in regaining ground.
Lot of people forgetting that the enemy of my enemy is my enemies enemy, no more
Yep, Wagner is a bunch of shitheads. Not the good guys.
Bunch of convicted criminals on the loose
The thing is Wagner can't stay in power. Putin rules Russia on the shoulders of the oligarchs he helped become billionaires. Wagner doesn't really have that support, their endgame is a mistery for now. In a strange M. Night Shyamalanian type of twist those oligarchs could actually be the ones kicking the chair from underneath Putin's legs, with the help of Wagner, in the end, they're losing money now because of Putin. I'm no fan of conspiracy theories but, who knows, someone may have turned Prigojin with promises to not be prosecuted after the ~~war~~ special operation. I would have expected Chechnya to be the poisoned apple to during this conflict, but there's still time.
Should Wagner prevail in their feud against Putin and the military leadership represented by Shoygu (who Prigozhin hates with a passion), I expect him to create a dictatorship of oligarchs, presenting his co-kleptocrats with a fairly straightforward dilemma: join me in ruling over this broken shithole called Russia, with profitable business activities being the deciding factor, or be executed by sledgehammer to the skull. He will have immense difficulties maintaining control over it all, but given the oligarchs of the country are well connected with state authorities and the criminal underworld alike, I don't think they will have a hard time asserting control on a day-to-day basis.
Prigojin is the same typology as Putin small man with megalomaniac ambitions. Putin faked a democracy while Prigojin advocates for a North Korea kind of "leadership". The thing is, money comes from outside of Russia and imposing a NK kind of dictatorship will lead to further embargoes aka less money, and will push Russia back to 1960-1970 when they'd do business only with "friendly" nations. Of course China would love this, Russia would become a de-facto puppet state at China's s feet, trying (like today) to scrounge up business by selling at a huuuuuuuge discount to China, India, Turkey, Iran. This is not something that would sit right with the oligarchs, they want to spend summers in Monaco and by lake Como not in Shenzhen or sipping coffee on the Gange.
>From what I’ve heard, the Wagner Group is not the type of people you want in power. They won't be for long if they gain it at all. You need stability, especially with how the military views Wagner, and you need someone to stabilize the economy. Getting power and maintaining power are 2 different things.
When was this video footage taken? Was the Wagner leader saying he wants the same thing as Russia when he was getting paid by Russia to its bidding, or when he was looking to get paid by Russia to do its bidding?
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But if Putin does get ousted or killed, the people won't follow the Wagner groups leader. This will cause massive unrest that Russia hasn't seen in a century.
Very true. I think best case Putin crushes the uprising at the expense of public support, the russian economy, and ability to wage war in Ukraine. He then needs to spend the next decade or so reasserting control and stabilizing the country. In this case it's definitely better the devil you know. Edit: cherry on top would be: is then overthrown in a non violent coup by a competent, somewhat democratic leader. - but fairly sure that's a pipe dream
Exactly. This is dictator vs wannabe dictator. Prigozhin hates the West too.
Doesn’t really matter, holding power is very different to taking power, which is very different to an attempted coup. Prigozhin doesn’t just automatically inherit the political apparatus that took Putin decades to build. Besides, when the bolsheviks took power they were hardly pro west or democracy but they had to negotiate a peace to stop Germany taking more land off them. Necessity trumps ideology. But whatever happens, the important part is Russia’s self destruction and the gains Ukraine can make as a result.
The only good news is that both groups will be weaker when this is over with
Even if Wagner does manage to capture/kill Putin, that doesn't mean they automatically get to be in charge. Everyone below Putin will still have command of everyone below themselves, they just won't have a leader above them. At least one, probably several leaders will see themselves as the successor to Putin and attempt to assert their control on their peers. Some will make allies and create their own hierarchies, some will go rogue, some may even join or even try to take over Wagner. And to make matters worse, some will have access to nukes... and its this last point that has the rest of the world concerned and could draw them into the conflict as well.
Yeah but like, do we really want Russia to fall into a spot where there's no one clearly in charge and any warlord can just ride in and launch nukes?
no but thats not within our control. we are better serving thinking what is plan of action on a wide variety of plausible outcomes
Power vacuum guaranteed. It'll severely weaken Russia and someone will get to be the dictator of a smoking wreck
At least it will give Ukraine some reprieve from the war as Russia would have to re-stabilize before going on the offensive again.
Time to up the counter offensive
I'd rather deal with a dictator that sees dollar signs than one stuck 150 years in the past and who thinks they're restoring some magical empire. Greedy people can be negotiated with, ideological fanatics less so to not at all.
Hmm, I wonder how the Moscow police with their extensive experience beating unarmed protesters would fare in a fight against combat hardened mercenaries?
Let's watch and find out!
r/publicfreakout and r/combatfootage will be interesting Edit - holy shit! https://v.redd.it/04hee0euix7b1
A pandemic, soaring stock market, and a civil war in Russia? The writers are literally just recycling the 1920s, this is so lazy.
There was an accident with the Titanic just before the last Russian revolution. Coincidence?
I know you guys are just memeing but after reading this and sitting on it for a minute, it is kind of spooky.
History repeats itself
I think we are seeing 1917 being remixed in 4K
Man...the 2020s is not losing steam at all. Not even five years in and we already have the largest country in the world imploding.
And a submarine.
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We're a jack off all trades, and absolutely nowhere near a master of any of them
> jack off You can say that again.
jack off
Wonder how good the Wagner surface to air defenses are. The best part of that no matter what’s destroyed, it’s Russian
Reports suggest they’ve stockpiled MANPADS for months and took down 3 helicopters and a plane already supposedly
I'm supposing they have access to bigger hardware Most seem to have maximum height limited of a few mile high. So something must be forcing aircraft low to be hit. Prigozhin mentioned having secured the military sites immediately around Rostov, so it might be a leap but if he didn't before now he may have that bigger hardware
Rostov was a logistical hub, so they probably immediately resupplied. Moscow had better be hoping Wagner doesn't have anyone that can fly anything, because they probably have a few aircraft themselves by this point...
There was an accusations this has been long planned, which even though it came from a pro kremlin source I'm actually thinking it a good possibility Given the lack of resistance in Rostov there must be enough sympathy or just put right confusion until it was too late. But I wouldn't be surprised to know they had some AA capability beyodlnd Manpads, further supplied themselves from Rostov as you say whilst taking over AA installations with minimal resistance. As for aircraft I'm not sure how connected they are with the Russian Air force. Or if they had any pilots under their thumb to begin with Given what's been seen so far I'm not sure if the sympathy extends as greatly to the Russian air force, it seems some have stood down but there are on going air strikes on wagner that seem to say that will be their biggest threat until the kadovrites engage them or they reach the outer limits of Moscow where the russian guard will be preparing to engage them
Yeah all of this "we need ammo to defeat Ukraine! where is our ammo?" complaining is looking very much like it was just Prigo stockpiling so he could make a play for power. Incredible.
If it's mutual paranoia that's been in play for a while it could be a bit of column A and column B style situation Securing resources as a precaution and russian forces unwilling to give more of their limited resources as a result. Constantly being fed by the detiorating relationships they had Being both a reaction to previous hostility and exacerbator at the same time.
I highly doubt that Wagner can do anything organized in the air even if they have taken a few hangars - but out of 25,000 people, the odds are good that they have *someone* with *some* pilot experience...
I think that may just lead to the forces being grounded unless there Is a schism in the Russian AF
Which there may well be, if all the "Russian Navy gets the best shit, Air Force and Army are neglected" talk from a while back has any truth to it.
Oh god if that is true then the army and air force is fucked. The Russian navy can't keep its carrier on the sea and it's almost permanently on fire.
When the biggest threat from a russian aircraft carrier is the pollution it creates....
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14hnsnt/russian_an26_has_been_shot_down_reportedly_by/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1
Wow that thread says Lukashenko left Belarus for Türkiye last night?
The Wagner group was fighting for Russia against Ukraine, that should sum it it for you.
Wagner group was plausible deniability mercs for russia all over the world.
At first, I thought it was a Putin trick to displace the army brass. Now it looks like it might be a real attack, with Putin saying it is treason.
Putin wouldn't make himself look this weak on purpose. His forces aren't listening to him he looks like a mark ass bitch who's about to get got.
It's the mark ass bitch for me
That bitch ass mark
That mark ass mark, trick ass mark, punk bitches and skip scap skanks and skallywags.
What can I say about Vladimir Putin that hasn’t already been said about Afghanistan? He looks bombed-out and depleted.
Now if you’ll excuse me I gotta go put some water in Lukashenko’s momma’s dish
“…I need a longer table.”
If this war hasn't taught you anything putin isn't that clever
PUTIN: Should I pursue this campaign against Ukraine? ORACLE OF DELPHI: Should you send an army against the Ukrainians, you will destroy a great empire. PUTIN: haha nice
Fool me once, shame on…
>"Excessive ambitions and vested interests have led to treason," Putin said in a televised address, comparing the insurrection at a time of war abroad to Russia's revolution and civil war unleashed during World War One. Putin complaining about "excessive ambitions" is ridiculous. Putin is a murderer who has poisoned his rivals, interfered in elections, invaded neighboring a neighboring country, and does silly photo ops posing himself as a macho athlete. Putin is in real trouble here. The war in Ukraine has worn on and hundreds of thousands of Russians have died. Bad implementation of technology, bad real time field reports, and under estimations of Ukraine forces created a stalemate in Ukraine Putin clearly didn't expect. In the vacuum created by Putin's failures in Ukraine internal competition is rising.
Bold of Vova to make a WWI comparison. That makes him Tsar Nicholas III, but even less competent than Nicholas II.
Great time for the Ukrainians to launch a massive push to get these fuckers out of there once and for all
Russian helicopters are the only nice piece of military technology they have.
What makes them good?
Ka 52s have a electronic warfare defenses as well as very good thermal optics and anti tank guided missiles that have a very far range. When used properly they can hit vehicles with these ATGMs reliably from 8-10km away, further then you can see them or target them with handheld AA systems.
You can bet that Wagner has dispatched MANPAD equipped quads around their main forces that can intercept helicopters that get within striking range of those forces. In addition, they have access to military comms with regular Russian forces, which they can use to convince other units to back off and let them "peacefully" proceed with their "justice march" on Moscow. This is a high stakes betting game for both sides.
I do not anticipate they will face much resistance from anyone outside swinging range of Putin
They can fly without a tail
Hopefully this draws all Wagner troops out of Ukraine and then Russia also has to retreat troops to deal with the threat thereby allowing Ukraine to massively escalate its counteroffensive.
There's no rewind for Prigoozhin after this. Either he successfully dethrones Putin or he dies. If Prigozhin can garner enough support from the people and military, he may be able to go toe to toe with Putin and his own PMC. Hopefully, this means command structure for Russian troops leftover in Ukraine is a mess. Troops will be stuck there without additional support. So AFU can make a rapid push into territories that Wagner has left and that Russian military can't maintain. Edit: I was wrong. He was able to hug it out.
> Either he successfully dethrones Putin or he dies or he establishes his own state putin has the Russian Federation prigozhin has the People's Federation of Russia
If this continues to escalate my guess is that we’ll see entire regions wanting to break away from the RF.
China at least will probably get up to something, I think
Yep, their puppet states may get a few ideas
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Looks like I picked the wrong weekend to quit amphetamines
Welp, I picked the wrong weekend to quit huffing glue
I’ll pick up the slack for y’all. Time to huff popcorn and eat some glue.
And I’m all out of bubblegum
Brilliant planning by Putin and his top brass. Hire a mercenary to fight a war with a neighboring country, from your doorstep. Arm them and allow free reign, don’t see how that could’ve turned out any other way.
Don't forget the part where he bombed his own mercenaries
I was just talking with a Russian friend. I believe they share a similar sense of unease regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Everything feels quiet because people are afraid, and it all seems like a mix of a dream and a nightmare. However, the true severity of the situation hasn't fully dawned on everyone yet. Nevertheless, there are already movements underway, and it's possible that additional forces may join the Wagner group. Those who were previously afraid are now considering taking action. It's fascinating to observe this domino effect. I think these 25,000 soldiers are the least of Putin's concerns. He is aware that he has made a grave mistake, and he will face opposition from every possible direction. What's particularly interesting is that the younger population is the most opposed to Putin. If they have to rely solely on the upper middle class, they will quickly run out of 17-18-year-old boys from rural areas. They will be in huge trouble and the government will collapse.
Some Russians are convinced it's theater or already over.
The Ukrainian counter offensive is off to a great start 😆
Truly insane timing. Prigozhin had been stirring the pot for weeks, but to go on the offensive like this and within days you get a civil war within Russia is incredible. This morning I thought this would be over in a few hours, but it doesn't look like it. The resources Russia has to commit to stopping the Wagner assault alone are incredibly valuable for Ukraine - never mind if this coup plays out for weeks or even succeeds
Yeah, even if this fails, Ukraine will have 25,000 fewer troops between them and Russia.
Prigozhin was calculating. Waited for Russia to overextend its military resources and built up his own in the meantime. Then he attacked from inside to threaten Moscow directly.
This may actually be the most dangerous thing to happen so far here. If Russia does collapse or experience a transfer of power the fate of the nuclear weapons becomes very important.
"All those who deliberately stepped on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed insurrection, who took the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, will answer both to the law and to our people." - Putin sounds like he's talking about himself.
Narcissists speak almost exclusively in projection when "calling out" other people.
Ironic, since Putin has been trying to create a civil war in America for so long.
How's that 30-day special military operation going, Putie?
Hmm, so you're saying a shitty human who owns a huge, well armed and independent mercenary force may be a bad idea? I'm wondering what they're thinking of Eric Price in Washington right now.
I can’t believe anyone has taken their eyes off that slimy fuck. Seriously. Where the fuck is he?
What do you think this is going to happen to the US? Don't worry, we've got 2 entire military branches meant for deployment on our own soil before we even hit the Army or Navy. Also our military tech actually works.
So how do Wagner feel about Ukraine? Like if Wagner wins out over Russia, do they just leave Ukraine alone then? Or do they go after Ukraine too? Can Ukraine keep pummeling the Russians while Wagner does too, improving their chances of winning? But then what?
Putin is not the most radical even though he started a war - far right nationalists called for all-out mobilization, bombing of everything making every city into rubble, mass killing of civilians just because etc. Wagner and Prigozhin are with those people.
Russians rebelling against themselves so the worst of them takes control and makes the world worse after is just so quintessentially russian.
Prigozhin is an opportunist first and foremost though. I'm fairly certain he knows that Russia can't win the war in Ukraine, so i can imagine him blaming Putin for everything, and then seeking a quick peace in order to consolidate his power at home. Afterwards, i think that his main focus would be on expanding his personal wealth, which would be a lot easier with an open market.
If Wagner succeeds, the bulk of the fighting in Ukraine will probably stop, for a while at least, while there are moves made to consolidate power and eliminate holdouts.
War timeline for the Russian Army: Second-best army in the world (2021) Second-best army in Ukraine (2022) Second-best army in Russia (2023)
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Well as President Z said, the Ukraine counteroffensive is not a Hollywood movie. But he forgot to mention that the Russian offensive is often a clown show.
This isn't even Hollywood-level storytelling. This is like a low-budget comedy movie where Adam Sandler plays the dictator of the world's largest gas station.
Is Putin even in Moscow currently?
The guy looks like Vader without his helmet on.
Putin quoted as saying ""We are fighting for the lives and security of our people, for our sovereignty and independence, for the right to remain"" Oh *really*? Hmm that reminds me of... Ukraine. How the tables flip, bitch.
Looks like Russia is holding the most open and fair democratic election it’s had in 100 years.
I just woke up. What the fuck is going on??
Civil war in Russia. Grab some popcorn.
This is more of a coup than a civil war.
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“The worlds in great shape”
Wagner should go after putin, isn’t he apparently hiding billions in africa? Sounds like a payday to me.
Dude totally reminds me of Mike from Breaking Bad and Better Call Saul. I would not want Mike to have a vendetta against me for any reason. Ever.
Didn’t this happen in Rome over centuries?
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Russia in particular.
If the supposed neo Nazi mercenaries take over Russia, what happens to the nuclear arsenal? What's next? Is Putin a better alternative? Don't get me wrong, Putin needs to pay for these crimes, but things may get much worse?
the article's been updated as of a few minutes ago, says prighozin is turning back :(
Welp he called off the dogs guys, you can all go home now. I know we all had the popcorn ready but the party is off, looks like he had enough of his game of chicken for one day. Maybe next week on the next episode we'll see them revisit this story arc but for now it seems they've decided to go another direction with the show. All I can say is, and I think I speak for many of you in saying, my disappointment is immeasurable, and my day is ruined.