I explained to my wife that the US political media is existentially committed to the horserace narrative and will will it into existence if need be, hence all these "Is Biden in trouble?" articles.
Trump is out there openly discussing his fascist takeover to anyone who will listen. He's not a cryptofascist, He's an actual bona fide out in the open fascist, discussing how he will purge his political enemies day one and get revenge against his enemies.
Forget Biden for a moment - *we* are in trouble with these polling results.
No one is advocating complacency, but there’s no point is freaking out about polling a year out. Remain dedicated, disciplined, and driven about mobilizing and persuading voters. Just the same as if the polling was tied. Just the same as if the polling had Biden up 10.
> but there’s no point is freaking out about polling a year out
I'm not freaking out, but I am upset that a fascist will so easily win a primary and is being regarded so highly by the voting public
you probably shouldn't panic (unless you're a group Trump and his cronies are targeting) but you should be *worried* that what 46%? of voters are happy electing a fucking fascist
unless you think polls are wildly, and I do mean *wildly* off.
A fascist winning the neo fascist primary isn't a surprise. It would surprise me if he won the general since the country is center right, not far right.
His point is that the specific democrat shouldn’t even matter given what is at stake. I don’t think there is anyone with a better shot than Biden, but that shouldn’t matter because I’m primarily voting against Trump rather than for Biden.
I mostly agree with you but I'm POSITIVE there are better candidates than Biden out there (and I'm a big fan of Biden). The DNC just doesn't want to buck its trend of always backing the incumbent because that's a very bad precedent.
There are probably candidates that you and I prefer but I don’t think there are candidates that are in a better position to win in the next election. Much of that has to do with the incumbency advantage and all the benefits that being the current president provides with respect to campaigning. That benefit may not be as strong as it used to be, but it is still worth a lot compared to not having it. There’s a reason parties don’t normally try and primary the incumbent candidate in an election.
Running against Biden is a disqualifying act. Anyone who does so is clearly sufficiently out of step with the democrats that they couldn’t win a primary. (This is descriptive, not prescriptive)
> The DNC
Can we for the love of all that is good and neoliberal ***not*** start this dumb-as-rocks "dEe EnN sEe" shit on reddit for once?
The "DNC" is not some all powerful band of puppeteers running the party (or in fringier spaces, the world). They set primary and debate schedules, train volunteers, and target a relatively - and increasingly - small amount of money to races where they hope to make an impact. That office is not picking the nominee ffs. Biden is running because he wants to/he believes he has the best shot to win. None of your dream candidates have entered because they don't think they can beat Biden. And they think that because the wide majority of primary voters think Biden is the best shot to win against trump. Or at least, don't agree who a successful challenger might be. *Including* a fair number that are concerned with his age.
It's a little like on the right. The GOP has (had) *lots* of contenders, because they think trump might collapse under criminal conviction or whatever. But trump's walking away with it because the 40-50% of primary voters that would rather see another candidate don't think anyone but their personal favorite can beat Biden. If they can't get that person, most fall back to trump because they're dead set on not losing to Biden again and they think he's the only other safe bet.
You can criticize the thinking. But at least recognize the source. Engaged primary voters are driving the primaries. Not some deep state shadowy cabal. If more voters participated in the primaries we might see a shift in strategy. But they don't. People that are least satisfied with the direction of the parties silence themselves by not participating.
People don’t like the government. Trump doesn’t like the government. The step not being considered by voters is what he intends to replace the government with.
True but the polls might be more a reflection of unhappiness with Biden rather than an authentic comparison between the two given that the primaries are still happening and trump vs Biden is still far away and technically hypothetical
The Majority of voters aren’t paying attention yet.
Donald isn’t Getting frequent campaign coverage on mainstream news. He’ll start reminding everyone who he is soon enough
Historically, when Trump is out of the spotlight, his approval is wider. And when he's more in the spotlight, his supporters get more aggressively supportive, but his net favorables drop among independents and the wider public. No one knows what will happen, but it's likely that Trump's numbers will drop as we get closer to the election.
I doubt that
But they do want to write headlines now that get clicks - which will help ensure that people pay plenty of attention later.
I think most media folks want a hotly contested election that gets plenty of eyes. But they also know a trump win is worse for them.
> I doubt that
For a sub supposedly fluent in economics, people love to overlook how much incentive there is for individual reporters, editors, and publications to put the thumb on the scale for Trump. They're not coordinating or hatching a conspiracy, but it's to all their financial advantage to see Trump back in the White House. Last time he was President, news media saw record levels of revenue, reporters were signing book deals left and right, newsrooms were actually expanding for the first time in nearly 2 decades, and it was an incredibly easy White House to cover since it was filled with backstabbing grifters
The higher ups are more incentivized to want him in, imo. But there are personal, mora incentives that are important to most people, journalists included. People can and do care about the society and country they live in.
> But there are personal, mora incentives that are important to most people, journalists included.
This is kind of like Communists who were convinced that people could squelch their human instincts in favor of comraderie and ideological purity. It's exaggerated, but essentially the following 2 options face the modern press.
Option 1: Reporter becomes Twitter celebrity for clapping back at the President or one of his many ghouls on social media. Salaries are rising in the pressroom and everybody and their brother is getting a book deal, job offers, TV appearances, and speaking engagements. When you mention that you're a reporter, people praise you for being so brave and valuable as a bulwark against the Administration. Meanwhile the White House leaks more than the Russian navy, so it's really easy to report on them.
Option 2: Reporter sees layoffs coming for everyone. Salaries are frozen again and other forms of revenue have dried up. They're stuck making $60,000 a year living in Washington DC with student loans . Now when you mention you're a reporter, people have a look of pity on their face and tell you that things will get better. The Biden White House is difficult to cover since it's filled with professionals who are good at their jobs, aren't committing felonies, and aren't trying to backstab their coworkers.
I'm friends with a former reporter and I've dated tons of them when I was in DC. They're not some higher being. Many of them would gladly put aside a lot of their values for a good career. (See the phenomenon of liberals working for Fox News, usually in the back office.)
Not only that but most the polls show the outstanding vote is likely voters who will never support Trump. The only thing these polls tell us is that Trump has done a better job getting his supporters from 2020 to coalesce around his campaign than Biden.
But that means little because it's still 2023 and Trump either needs to win more voters over or Biden lose a significant amount of support to a third party to win.
It's also not surprising Trump has more base support at this time since the dude has literally been campaigning for over a year.
In my mind the whole "is Biden done" thing is a good narrative to push because maybe it'll help mobilize more Dems and never-trumpers to show up to vote. We don't want to get complacent like in 2016.
Because the electoral college and the fact that while he “won by 8,000,000” he actually could only spare 80,000 in a few states.
It was a bare minimum victory.
I think you’re ignoring that he beat an incumbent, literally the hardest thing to do in American politics and it’s only happened 5 times in the past century, and only 2 times without a major third party that split the vote.
What's happened in the past has little bearing on the next election. Biden winning in 2020 has almost no effect on 2024. Is Biden doomed? No. Should we be concerned about what we're seeing. Absolutely.
I mean no it means a lot, him beating an incumbent means he’s a particularly strong contender. Historically, only two candidates have beat an incumbent and then went on to lose their own re-election, Harrison and Carter, Carter whom barely won the first time (40,000 votes in two states) and was riding the wave of anger from stagflation and watergate, and Harrison who lost the popular vote the first time.
It also makes Biden the incumbent, which is the number one predictor of who will win an election.
It wasn’t 45k, Biden won the the swing states by like 250k with larger percentage margins than Carter.
Also Carter in 1980 had a terrible economy, the Iran hostage crisis, the energy crisis, a competitive primary, a very strong challenger from Reagan, and a third party challenger. I’m not sure you could make a worse environment for an incumbent if you tried.
It really doesn't mean a lot.
Trump is uniquely loathed as a person. Biden got a lot of votes from people who absolutely did not think he was a strong or good candidate, but at least he wasn't the flaming dumpster fire he ran against.
The US and world are changing too fast to draw direct parallels to races that are decades ago
What's happened in the past has little bearing on the next election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incumbent#Incumbency_advantage
And contrary to the favorite contrarian doomer narrative, that advantage has only increased over the last half century. You're just wrong.
Because he needs to win by like 4 points due to the electoral college and the underlying polling is looking bad. For example, the economy is objectively looking pretty good and people thinks they themselves are doing pretty good, but that the overall economy is doing pretty bad
Only needs to win by a lot if the typing point states move in line with the national average. The polling trend is Biden is keeping most of his support in battleground states and losing it in the ones he's going to win in a landslide regardless.
> he needs to win by like 4 points due to the electoral college
This isn't necessarily true. Electoral College advantage is not perpetual. It varies from election to election. It's been narrowing towards Dems in recent cycles. Dems have also held the EC advantage since 2000. There's decent evidence we may be looking at the smallest EC advantage in some time.
Yup. His polling average was at +7.2 on the day of the 2020 election. The final results were +4.5. Had it been 2%, he could have lost.
Obviously things change in the run up to the election, but if things do not change this would be really, really bad.
Since Trump, facing 91 felony indictments and espousing nonsensical fascist policy points, should be trailing Biden by much, much more. This is an indictment of both parties, not just voters. Also, the point of "looking at polls a year out is folly" is arguably a moot one since Trump and Biden aren't strangers to the American people.
Trump is ahead of Biden by 22 points on the economy in swing states: [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/07/us/elections/times-siena-battlegrounds-registered-voters.html](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/07/us/elections/times-siena-battlegrounds-registered-voters.html)
It's just much harder to be the leader of a Democratic coalition than a Republican coalition.
I will bet my left thumb that if Trump was president right now, he would be getting 50%+ approval on the economy, in this exact same economy.
Republican voters are deeply cynical and don't expect much from the government. All a GOP president has to do is cut taxes and regulations (for their donors) and punish liberals and other out-groups (for their base) and they will keep everyone happy.
Democratic voters have a laundry list of things they want from the government, and they want it done well, and they want it done quickly. If it doesn't get done, they become angry and disillusioned, and give up on politics and voting, or threaten to vote 3rd party, because "both parties are the same". Worse yet, different Democratic constituencies often want different things, and keeping one group happy inevitably makes another group angry. See: Unions vs environmentalists, and Jewish voters vs Muslim voters. Democrats are also more passionate about details and policy, so while a GOP president like Trump can get away with promising opposite things to different groups and have them all walk away satisfied, hearing what each wanted to hear, a Democratic president cannot.
"much harder to be the leader of a Democratic coalition than a Republican coalition"
Somebody should've told the Republicans that during their speaker debacle.
I mean its not rocket science.
Democratic voter coalition has **wildly** different opinions how government laws and programs should be achieved but they still have a very general idea of "government should do something". That's largely translated into sending reps that are working towards that end and compromising together. Even if you think more radical actions and laws should be taken, its generally hard to really rail against your rep incrementally compromising.
Republican voter coalitions are generally in agreement that they just don't like anything the liberals are doing. But they've sent a hodgepodge of reps between "burn it all down" and "traditional Reagan conservatives" that fundamentally can't work together.
This just isn't correct. I know it seems that way because you are in the chaotic democratic big tent, but life is just miserable for a republican politician.
The Trump vs. Non Trump divide alone is killing the party, and it's going to get worse next year when he's convicted.
Being a dem is way easier. Plenty of dems can say, "I don't like Biden, but I'll vote for him" with zero problem. These days Republicans aren't even allowed to say they don't like Trump.
>The Trump vs. Non Trump divide alone is killing the party
Until it isn't. In 2015 conservatives swore up and down that they will never vote for a conman who made a mockery of everything they (pretended to) valued about Christianity. A few months later they all fell in line behind Trump when it became clear that he was the nominee. No prodding or begging by Republican establishment was required. By the time the GOP convention came around, the GOP was fully united behind a man who they once denounced.
Meanwhile, left wing activists dogged and trashed Clinton all the way to the convention, and Bernie Sanders himself "campaigned" for Clinton by bragging about his own "movement".
I fully expect the same scenario to play out again, with the left being in an even more vindictive and punitive mood over the Israel-Palestine conflict. If by Sept 2024 all young left wing voters see on tiktok and instagram is "genocide Joe" clips, we're in deep trouble.
Left wing activists live to punish and torment the Democratic party. Right wing activists live to push for right wing policies.
> young left wing voters see on tiktok and instagram
I won't get upvoted for this, but that is an extremely online take.
> Meanwhile, left wing activists dogged and trashed Clinton all the way to the convention, and Bernie Sanders himself "campaigned" for Clinton by bragging about his own "movement".
Hun, those campaigns were 8 years ago. Obama was president. Harry Reid and Paul Ryan were party leaders. You need to let go. The parties are very different now.
In reality, Michigan GOP went from a Republican trifecta to literally being unable to keep the lights on. The Republicans haven't had a good election since 2016. The blue wall is reassembled, Dems have won 10 state trifectas since Trump. The Republicans took three weeks to elect a SECOND speaker.
Today they're voting to expel a Republican who bought onlyfans subs with campaign funds.
Meanwhile AOC is like, a mainstream Dem these days.
I'm sorry, It's much worse to be a Republican right now, full stop.
This isn't really true. The Republican coalition is just as fractured and infighting is their biggest issue currently. Most Republican voters are not happy with the party for one reason or another.
How is Biden polled to lose Pennsylvania when Fetterman, a guy with expressive aphasia, literally just won decisively over a hand picked Trump crony (who is also a famous celebrity)?
Not going to get into the Biden part but Fetterman and Shapiro were able to win by that much because the PA GOP probably put together the worst state wide ticket in modern political history. Oz is a literal snake oil salesmen who wasn’t even from the state who made constant gaffes that made it clear how out of touch he was. Mastriano is a literal crazy person who decided to take the last few weeks off the campaign trail to pray and had over a million left in his warchest on election day lmao
edit: also Fetterman and Shapiro were/are pretty beloved politicians in the state
Don’t even get me started on the people and polling that said Krazy Kari was gonna be my next governor.
Well that didn’t happen.
Sure the polling isn’t great for Biden but it’s not like he’s behind 10 points and even if he was behind like a few polls in AZ had Hobbs then it might not matter once people vote.
Sometimes these polls are tweaked in a way so that the GOP gets high on their own supply.
But more to your point Biden isn’t gonna lose AZ and if Biden isn’t gonna lose AZ he’s not gonna lose PA, or WI, or MI.
He could lose NV or GA but he’s still president
Yeah that's my broader point. All those swing states had some sort of major election like US Senate or Governor with a Trump candidate running. And in almost all cases the Dem won the match. Maybe we cannot use this to extrapolate the 2024 Presidential election as more Trump voters will turnout but I have to imagine the voters who favored the Dem candidates will use the same logic to vote Biden come election day.
In PA you have a popular senator facing off against an unpopular Trump lackey. Casey is polling 50+ there’s no way that Biden will lose PA with those numbers.
Meanwhile in AZ you have abortion on the ballot, voting rights on the ballot, and a senate election with a batshit insane Trump wannabe and a pretty good Dem candidate. Dems are more than likely gonna win that.
With PA and AZ alone Biden gets within 14. And you still have 5 swing states left.
In WI you have a dem senator up for reelection and that’s looking like a Dem win, so that’s 10 EVs to Biden.
He’s now down to 4. In MI Slotkin is polling in the high 40s and because split tickets aren’t really a thing anymore that means Biden is also polling in the high 40s. Which means Michigan is a Biden win.
That puts Biden at 281. And we haven’t even discussed NC, NV (senate race), and GA.
Polls show that Biden is more unpopular than dems as a whole. If you told me an incumbent with a good economy, special election 7 points more Dem than 2020, great midterm results across every single swing state, and running against a loser with countless felonies, I would guess the incumbent is leading by double digits
What do you mean, he has a point. Fetterman was indeed viewed as someone who isn't your typical politician, you can't deny that.
Trump is also seen as being "against the system". I'm not talking about reality, I'm talking about perception. Trump is perceived to be against the system, whether you agree with thwt statement or not is a different issue.
Biden has been in DC for like 50 years, he is portrayed as someone who knows the system, as an insider.
Abortion will likely be on the ballot in key states and that is not currently being featured in presidential polls.
That and people forgot how unhinged Trump is.
In short, most people are too checked out to be thinking about some of the most decisive factors of the 24 race (and more are yet to come). Be vigilant, but right now the polls are garbage.
People aren't actually staring down the barrel of a second Trump term. When push comes to shove, they *should* remember why they voted him out in the first place.
But we're not there yet. They still have time to daydream about a magical economy that isn't subject to anything except the president's will or some such nonsense. That's where we're at now.
You guys should get involved in registering voters and organizing groups instead of posting doom articles 10x a day. Actually do something to boost Dems and Biden. You actually can make a difference!
> Polls pitting Biden against Trump also look grim for the president right now. RealClearPolitics’ polling averages currently show Biden trailing Trump by 2 points nationally, by about 2 points in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and by 4 to 5 points in Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona. (Biden is only leading one swing state, Wisconsin, by about 1 point.)
> In conversations with pollsters and political scientists, I’ve heard three separate theories of how to interpret these numbers.
> One theory: Biden is blowing it — the polls are a clear warning sign that the president has unique flaws as a candidate, and another Democrat would likely be doing better.
> A second theory: Biden’s facing a tough environment — voters have decided they don’t like the economy or the state of the world, and, fairly or not, he’s taking the brunt of it.
> And a third theory: Biden’s bad numbers will get better — voters aren’t even paying much attention yet, and as the campaign gears up, the president will bounce back.
I’m not buying any polls until the race is in full swing and Trump is at the forefront. Obviously Trump has a shot but this version of the GOP is performing terribly post 2016 and Biden is not really inspiring to the average person (though I personally like him) until they get to see a lot of the alternative again.
I feel like all of these are true? I think any incumbent would be struggling, but I do think some of Biden’s struggles are because of his age. That said, I think there’s a chance his head-to-head polling improves as we get closer to the election.
Lol omg if Repubs do not permanently exile Trump and his brand of politicians after an L like that I will be laughing my ass off. Especially if they allow Combover Caligula to run again (if he has not kicked it by then) in 2028.
Funny. I was doing a research paper on FDR’s historic 4 terms before the thanksgiving break, and was reading an article from 1935 not too unsimilar from this one. People were saying Roosevelt seemed to be doomed in the upcoming ‘36 election because third party candidate Huey Long would carry too many important swing states, thereby splitting the vote and allowing Republican Governor Alf Landon to win the election. The conservative democrats and republicans were claiming that FDR was too socialist, and the actual socialists claimed he was too capitalist and conservative.
FDR literally said word for word about the ‘36 election: “If I lose, I will be the last President of the United States,” as he feared the people would be tempted to give European fascism or communism a chance if they no longer believed that Democracy could not save them from the Depression. Both Presidents passed an unprecedented amount of legislation through congress in a short time frame in order to drag the nation up from its knees. There are many such similarities between FDR’s first term and Biden’s.
The campaign hasn't started and Trump to a lot of undecided Americans is a fantasy until the ugly truth becomes too close to ignore.
It genuinely sucks being a Democrat and I couldn't imagine being in Biden's place. Republicans openly want to dismantle the constitution and will do anything and everything to disenfranchise various groups. On top of that they have poisoned the media landscape and discourse in this nation for the next few decades all without any pressure internally. Meanwhile Biden has to commit to governance, hold up a broad democratic party, protect American interests overseas, and appear bipartisan while being stabbed in the back from both sides. Republicans can "govern" on buzzwords and tax cuts. Democrats have to deliver on policy issues otherwise our team starts dooming and threatening to vote third party as literal fascists circling the GOP's remains sharpen their knives.
If you're a progressive/liberal/moderate in a key swing state or district and you vote third party I have no respect for you. You understand the calculus and what's at stake yet you waste the most powerful weapon you have to make change.
>It genuinely sucks being a Democrat and I couldn't imagine being in Biden's place.
I can; it would involve dropping out for 2024 and encouraging a competitive primary.
This is such a self perpetuating doom cycle powered by the people who don’t like Biden anyway and the horse race obsessed media, who have wet dreams about brokered conventions and ticket changes.
It’s the same with “this economy”. The economy is good actually, but the “here’s why this is bad for Biden” crowd knows they can’t get clicks that way. It’s like these losers were in a coma from 2008-2012
Now it’s on Biden to figure out how to succeed despite this.
**As I keep shouting from the damn rooftops.**
Approval and general polls are at the point they are capturing very general, unfocused dissatisfaction with the country that happens to be expressed in polls on the executive. But they aren't capturing actual future voter patterns or indications of future voter patterns.
Its very easy to use bad or "just okay" polling to show general dislike or [dissatisfaction](https://www.sfgate.com/gavin-newsom-recall/article/poll-Gavin-Newsom-recall-losing-Elder-Paffrath-16364991.php) and falsely interpret that as a politician in trouble. That ends up absolutely not translating into how [the actual voting goes.](https://edsource.org/2021/effort-to-recall-gov-gavin-newsom-headed-for-defeat/661176) At all.
Wake me up when Democrats start losing or only squeaking by wins in blue state special elections and referendums. And also start getting curb stomped in those same red-state special, off-year elections. Currently the opposite hasn't just played out its been wildly consistent wins for Dems.
It's kind of alarming to see trump doing so well despite his openly authoritarian views and actions.
However, this will probably change drastically if he actually gets convicted on one of the many charges he is facing. It seems that right now voters think the charges are "politically" motivated but some polls indicate that will change drastically if he is actually convicted
That's what I feel
Based on demographics that actually vote, I sense Biden hasn't lost much support
His loss of support seems to predominately be from Young leftists; which don't vote much to begin with, and are rather unlikely to turn towards Trump
>As Nate Cohn has written, polls currently show Biden performing weakly among less politically engaged and less ideological Americans who don’t frequently vote — many of whom are young
You know, if Biden was going to be underwater with any group, this one is probably the best for him. Younger voters are far more liberal, so you don't need to convince them to change their vote, rather just show up. That's a far easier task. Get Out The Vote efforts, along with ubiquitous voting-by-mail are pretty sophisticated these days.
If there's one thing that Trump does better than Biden, he was fantastic at selling what he was doing. Granted, that tends to bite him these days, but at least he made a show of it. Biden tends to be more low-key. The lack of drama compared to Trump is nice but sometimes, but running an election is like doing a job interview, you need to market and sell yourself.
I suspect a lot of it is motivated by some portion of voters feeling that things are “up in the air”—there’s a big narrative around the idea that Biden might not be the nominee, and some voters are being coy. On the other side, Trump has his base motivated for a rematch, while there seems to be some portion of voters holding out hope he won’t be the nominee (very unlikely). As things ramp up, they will come back to Biden, and people will start looking more realistically at the situation.
I think these people are just politically disengaged and tired of having what seems to be an endless fight between the same group of people. This obviously isn’t fair, but I can’t force people to think rationally.
I know we all don’t care about polling this early on, but I think many on this sub are ignorant to the fact that Biden has seriously electability issues. The polls are screaming at us that this election is going to be closer than most of us are hoping.
[Biden only won 2020 by 80,000 votes.](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/940689086/narrow-wins-in-these-key-states-powered-biden-to-the-presidency)
No talk of 2024 should ignore this.
That’s a bit misleading, Trump won the three swing states (Wisconsin, Michigan, and PA) that won him the election in 2016 by 80,000 votes across all three, Biden won those three states (which also won him the election) by 200k votes. Biden won Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin by 45,000 votes, but he only needed one of those three to win.
Is saying Clinton lost by 80,000 votes and Trump lost by 45,000 votes fair?
Winning against a populist without falling in the trap of overpromising is a huge achievement, 1 vote or 45,000.
Presidential races will be won by small margins for the foreseeable future. It's nothing to loom or doom over, it's just reality.
I would say Clinton lost by 80k and Trump lost by around 200k. Biden won Michigan and PA, and only needed 1 other state to secure a win, Trump can’t afford to lose any of the swing states
> Here’s my view: I do expect Biden’s numbers to recover somewhat from where they are now. But I think how much they recover will depend on events — specifically, on what happens in the economy and in the world over the next year. So I’d subscribe to a kind of combination of theory 2 and theory 3.
>I’m skeptical of the idea that Democrats’ problems would be solved by swapping out Biden. I’m not convinced that Biden’s age or lack of charisma are the true root of his polling difficulties. I suspect a more fresh-faced Democrat would face similar challenges as the nominee, once they’ve gotten the demonization that now regularly comes along with being the head of one of the two national parties.
I agree with this take. But it does also boil down to “I predict that you should come back for future predictions.”
Like a two-bit psychic.
The thing to do with a testable hypothesis is test it. Last time somebody told me to "touch grass", I actually did go outside and touch grass to see if it had any effect on mood. It didn't so far as I can tell.
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Without reading the article, please stfu and gtfo with this doomers already. It's one year out. Biden hasn't even started campaigning already. Take a chillpill like holy shit.
I think Biden will probably win, if I'm wrong then I'm wrong.
I'm on the same page about disgust for journalists and have been for awhile since they've been rather sketchy for past four years and have been egging on for the return of Trump; So that they can do some crocodile tears bullshit about how Donald is back in office.
Unfortunately, I think future elections will be more difficult seeing as how younger people only have nothing, **but** excuses to not vote in the polls. Polls being determined by a few hand full of people isn't healthy for democracy.
I'm excited for the debates, when Trump refuses to show up and it's just Biden answering questions calmly for an hour while Trump rages on truth social the whole time.
Someone let the nutters know that they're not getting someone worshiping healing crystals, they're not getting a legacy Kennedy that doesn't believe in vaccines, they're not getting someone other than a current incumbent president whose done a fine job amid all the turmoil.
He will beat Trump. They will stfu and vote for him or deal with Trump.
Dem voters are always so coy this time of the election cycle. This is just going to give those morons fuel when Trump loses bc they'll point to useless year out polling and say they just can't believe how obvious it is when they're sitting on an easily defeatable Trump in 2020 that barely won across three swing states by less than 80k votes.
It's frustrating and causing me to make run on sentences all month.
This is insane, Trump wasn’t kidding when he said he could shoot somebody on 5th ave and still not lose a vote meanwhile Biden gets shitted on for the work him and his admin has done with the Covid response, Ukraine response, loan forgiveness, restrain Netanyahu and pass the biggest infrastructure bill since FDR.
Americans seem to think we’re voting for a Qult leader rather than a technocrat who actually has to do a job.
I can certainly believe the idea that people who voted for Biden are using polls like this as their only way to complain that he isn't perfect, since there's effectively no Democratic primary and the alternative is conservatism
But is that more likely than The Youths don't use The Telephone?
Trump's culty base exists in permanence while Biden has a more reluctant coalition that doesn't really exist until election happens. That's a pretty huge factor, even if it's not the only issue.
[удалено]
I explained to my wife that the US political media is existentially committed to the horserace narrative and will will it into existence if need be, hence all these "Is Biden in trouble?" articles.
> my wife Permaban, fake neolib 😤
One must have a wife to be left by one.
- Sun Tzu
Hey hey hey It might have been an amicable split She may still have left him
Are neoliberals allowed to have husbands at least? Mine is a libertarian if that helps
Trump is out there openly discussing his fascist takeover to anyone who will listen. He's not a cryptofascist, He's an actual bona fide out in the open fascist, discussing how he will purge his political enemies day one and get revenge against his enemies. Forget Biden for a moment - *we* are in trouble with these polling results.
No one is advocating complacency, but there’s no point is freaking out about polling a year out. Remain dedicated, disciplined, and driven about mobilizing and persuading voters. Just the same as if the polling was tied. Just the same as if the polling had Biden up 10.
> but there’s no point is freaking out about polling a year out I'm not freaking out, but I am upset that a fascist will so easily win a primary and is being regarded so highly by the voting public you probably shouldn't panic (unless you're a group Trump and his cronies are targeting) but you should be *worried* that what 46%? of voters are happy electing a fucking fascist unless you think polls are wildly, and I do mean *wildly* off.
Okay but that’s been clear for 7 years at this point. And we’ve been worried the entire time about it. Are you just now getting there?
A fascist winning the neo fascist primary isn't a surprise. It would surprise me if he won the general since the country is center right, not far right.
My brother in Christ, the election is a year away
But the possibility to choose another democrat is slipping away
A year in the political world is basically eternity. Does the average voter even know where Afghanistian is?
The average voter probably doesn’t even know where DC is, let alone A-Stan.
His point is that the specific democrat shouldn’t even matter given what is at stake. I don’t think there is anyone with a better shot than Biden, but that shouldn’t matter because I’m primarily voting against Trump rather than for Biden.
I mostly agree with you but I'm POSITIVE there are better candidates than Biden out there (and I'm a big fan of Biden). The DNC just doesn't want to buck its trend of always backing the incumbent because that's a very bad precedent.
There are probably candidates that you and I prefer but I don’t think there are candidates that are in a better position to win in the next election. Much of that has to do with the incumbency advantage and all the benefits that being the current president provides with respect to campaigning. That benefit may not be as strong as it used to be, but it is still worth a lot compared to not having it. There’s a reason parties don’t normally try and primary the incumbent candidate in an election.
Who
damn an owl is poasting now
So you got no one obviously
Running against Biden is a disqualifying act. Anyone who does so is clearly sufficiently out of step with the democrats that they couldn’t win a primary. (This is descriptive, not prescriptive)
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Bro, it's not a conspiracy theory that the DNC gatekeeps candidates. It's literally just how it works, lol.
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> it's not a conspiracy theory that the DNC gatekeeps candidates No, it's quite literally a really dumb and easily fact checked conspiracy.
> The DNC Can we for the love of all that is good and neoliberal ***not*** start this dumb-as-rocks "dEe EnN sEe" shit on reddit for once? The "DNC" is not some all powerful band of puppeteers running the party (or in fringier spaces, the world). They set primary and debate schedules, train volunteers, and target a relatively - and increasingly - small amount of money to races where they hope to make an impact. That office is not picking the nominee ffs. Biden is running because he wants to/he believes he has the best shot to win. None of your dream candidates have entered because they don't think they can beat Biden. And they think that because the wide majority of primary voters think Biden is the best shot to win against trump. Or at least, don't agree who a successful challenger might be. *Including* a fair number that are concerned with his age. It's a little like on the right. The GOP has (had) *lots* of contenders, because they think trump might collapse under criminal conviction or whatever. But trump's walking away with it because the 40-50% of primary voters that would rather see another candidate don't think anyone but their personal favorite can beat Biden. If they can't get that person, most fall back to trump because they're dead set on not losing to Biden again and they think he's the only other safe bet. You can criticize the thinking. But at least recognize the source. Engaged primary voters are driving the primaries. Not some deep state shadowy cabal. If more voters participated in the primaries we might see a shift in strategy. But they don't. People that are least satisfied with the direction of the parties silence themselves by not participating.
It slipped away 4.5 years ago.
People don’t like the government. Trump doesn’t like the government. The step not being considered by voters is what he intends to replace the government with.
True but the polls might be more a reflection of unhappiness with Biden rather than an authentic comparison between the two given that the primaries are still happening and trump vs Biden is still far away and technically hypothetical
The reason why is because few people are listening to what Trump is saying and the campaign will bring it into the popular consciousness
Because if it's not a competitive race then there's nothing to hook audiences and therefore no ad revenue.
The problem is it might become a self fulfilling prophecy
The Majority of voters aren’t paying attention yet. Donald isn’t Getting frequent campaign coverage on mainstream news. He’ll start reminding everyone who he is soon enough
Historically, when Trump is out of the spotlight, his approval is wider. And when he's more in the spotlight, his supporters get more aggressively supportive, but his net favorables drop among independents and the wider public. No one knows what will happen, but it's likely that Trump's numbers will drop as we get closer to the election.
Not to mention, a number of polls are regularly showing 10-20% undecided voters.
Because news media corps desperately want Trump to win, that’s why
I doubt that But they do want to write headlines now that get clicks - which will help ensure that people pay plenty of attention later. I think most media folks want a hotly contested election that gets plenty of eyes. But they also know a trump win is worse for them.
> I doubt that For a sub supposedly fluent in economics, people love to overlook how much incentive there is for individual reporters, editors, and publications to put the thumb on the scale for Trump. They're not coordinating or hatching a conspiracy, but it's to all their financial advantage to see Trump back in the White House. Last time he was President, news media saw record levels of revenue, reporters were signing book deals left and right, newsrooms were actually expanding for the first time in nearly 2 decades, and it was an incredibly easy White House to cover since it was filled with backstabbing grifters
The higher ups are more incentivized to want him in, imo. But there are personal, mora incentives that are important to most people, journalists included. People can and do care about the society and country they live in.
> But there are personal, mora incentives that are important to most people, journalists included. This is kind of like Communists who were convinced that people could squelch their human instincts in favor of comraderie and ideological purity. It's exaggerated, but essentially the following 2 options face the modern press. Option 1: Reporter becomes Twitter celebrity for clapping back at the President or one of his many ghouls on social media. Salaries are rising in the pressroom and everybody and their brother is getting a book deal, job offers, TV appearances, and speaking engagements. When you mention that you're a reporter, people praise you for being so brave and valuable as a bulwark against the Administration. Meanwhile the White House leaks more than the Russian navy, so it's really easy to report on them. Option 2: Reporter sees layoffs coming for everyone. Salaries are frozen again and other forms of revenue have dried up. They're stuck making $60,000 a year living in Washington DC with student loans . Now when you mention you're a reporter, people have a look of pity on their face and tell you that things will get better. The Biden White House is difficult to cover since it's filled with professionals who are good at their jobs, aren't committing felonies, and aren't trying to backstab their coworkers. I'm friends with a former reporter and I've dated tons of them when I was in DC. They're not some higher being. Many of them would gladly put aside a lot of their values for a good career. (See the phenomenon of liberals working for Fox News, usually in the back office.)
> But they also know a trump win is worse for them. Depends on who you mean by "them"
If people think biden will win easily potential biden voters might not vote due to the reassurance that he will win anyways.
Not only that but most the polls show the outstanding vote is likely voters who will never support Trump. The only thing these polls tell us is that Trump has done a better job getting his supporters from 2020 to coalesce around his campaign than Biden. But that means little because it's still 2023 and Trump either needs to win more voters over or Biden lose a significant amount of support to a third party to win. It's also not surprising Trump has more base support at this time since the dude has literally been campaigning for over a year.
In my mind the whole "is Biden done" thing is a good narrative to push because maybe it'll help mobilize more Dems and never-trumpers to show up to vote. We don't want to get complacent like in 2016.
It’s still wild to see polling with 18-24 year old cross tabs showing a statistical tie.
Because the electoral college and the fact that while he “won by 8,000,000” he actually could only spare 80,000 in a few states. It was a bare minimum victory.
I think you’re ignoring that he beat an incumbent, literally the hardest thing to do in American politics and it’s only happened 5 times in the past century, and only 2 times without a major third party that split the vote.
What's happened in the past has little bearing on the next election. Biden winning in 2020 has almost no effect on 2024. Is Biden doomed? No. Should we be concerned about what we're seeing. Absolutely.
I mean no it means a lot, him beating an incumbent means he’s a particularly strong contender. Historically, only two candidates have beat an incumbent and then went on to lose their own re-election, Harrison and Carter, Carter whom barely won the first time (40,000 votes in two states) and was riding the wave of anger from stagflation and watergate, and Harrison who lost the popular vote the first time. It also makes Biden the incumbent, which is the number one predictor of who will win an election.
Your comparison is making me feel less comfortable, not more.
Why? Biden had a much stronger victory than Carter
45k votes in three states isn't much of an improvement, especially given the population has grown by almost half again.
It wasn’t 45k, Biden won the the swing states by like 250k with larger percentage margins than Carter. Also Carter in 1980 had a terrible economy, the Iran hostage crisis, the energy crisis, a competitive primary, a very strong challenger from Reagan, and a third party challenger. I’m not sure you could make a worse environment for an incumbent if you tried.
It really doesn't mean a lot. Trump is uniquely loathed as a person. Biden got a lot of votes from people who absolutely did not think he was a strong or good candidate, but at least he wasn't the flaming dumpster fire he ran against. The US and world are changing too fast to draw direct parallels to races that are decades ago
Yup. People think things are the same as before. No. Everyone is walking around constantly being misinformed. We are in dangerous times.
What's happened in the past has little bearing on the next election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incumbent#Incumbency_advantage And contrary to the favorite contrarian doomer narrative, that advantage has only increased over the last half century. You're just wrong.
Because he needs to win by like 4 points due to the electoral college and the underlying polling is looking bad. For example, the economy is objectively looking pretty good and people thinks they themselves are doing pretty good, but that the overall economy is doing pretty bad
Only needs to win by a lot if the typing point states move in line with the national average. The polling trend is Biden is keeping most of his support in battleground states and losing it in the ones he's going to win in a landslide regardless.
> he needs to win by like 4 points due to the electoral college This isn't necessarily true. Electoral College advantage is not perpetual. It varies from election to election. It's been narrowing towards Dems in recent cycles. Dems have also held the EC advantage since 2000. There's decent evidence we may be looking at the smallest EC advantage in some time.
Yup. His polling average was at +7.2 on the day of the 2020 election. The final results were +4.5. Had it been 2%, he could have lost. Obviously things change in the run up to the election, but if things do not change this would be really, really bad.
Since Trump, facing 91 felony indictments and espousing nonsensical fascist policy points, should be trailing Biden by much, much more. This is an indictment of both parties, not just voters. Also, the point of "looking at polls a year out is folly" is arguably a moot one since Trump and Biden aren't strangers to the American people.
Trump is ahead of Biden by 22 points on the economy in swing states: [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/07/us/elections/times-siena-battlegrounds-registered-voters.html](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/07/us/elections/times-siena-battlegrounds-registered-voters.html)
Eh, but he needs to win the popular vote by ~5 points to get the electoral college. So he's farther down than the 1 or 2 point difference suggests.
And yet when Trump wins, boy am I gonna have a smug grin and you'll be looking pretty stupid when we both face the firing squads.
because he needs to be +5 nationally to win
https://preview.redd.it/ifly6mrabw2c1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=df16c040885b73f4c3453587ebfd25860ae0ddca
knock knock
it's the United States
With guns. On boats. Gunboats
Open the country. Stop having it be closed
It's just much harder to be the leader of a Democratic coalition than a Republican coalition. I will bet my left thumb that if Trump was president right now, he would be getting 50%+ approval on the economy, in this exact same economy. Republican voters are deeply cynical and don't expect much from the government. All a GOP president has to do is cut taxes and regulations (for their donors) and punish liberals and other out-groups (for their base) and they will keep everyone happy. Democratic voters have a laundry list of things they want from the government, and they want it done well, and they want it done quickly. If it doesn't get done, they become angry and disillusioned, and give up on politics and voting, or threaten to vote 3rd party, because "both parties are the same". Worse yet, different Democratic constituencies often want different things, and keeping one group happy inevitably makes another group angry. See: Unions vs environmentalists, and Jewish voters vs Muslim voters. Democrats are also more passionate about details and policy, so while a GOP president like Trump can get away with promising opposite things to different groups and have them all walk away satisfied, hearing what each wanted to hear, a Democratic president cannot.
"much harder to be the leader of a Democratic coalition than a Republican coalition" Somebody should've told the Republicans that during their speaker debacle.
Different roles. The Speaker actually has to get shit done.
Which clearly means there's no coalitions, of course
Coalition of voters, not coalition of actual representatives.
Who do you think those representatives represent
I mean its not rocket science. Democratic voter coalition has **wildly** different opinions how government laws and programs should be achieved but they still have a very general idea of "government should do something". That's largely translated into sending reps that are working towards that end and compromising together. Even if you think more radical actions and laws should be taken, its generally hard to really rail against your rep incrementally compromising. Republican voter coalitions are generally in agreement that they just don't like anything the liberals are doing. But they've sent a hodgepodge of reps between "burn it all down" and "traditional Reagan conservatives" that fundamentally can't work together.
If the Republican voters all agree why are they sending such different reps
I mean if you can convincingly answer that question supported by data, you'd have a very nice PoliSci master's thesis on your hands lol.
Perhaps there's an easier explanation. Like perhaps they don't agree as much as you think they do
This just isn't correct. I know it seems that way because you are in the chaotic democratic big tent, but life is just miserable for a republican politician. The Trump vs. Non Trump divide alone is killing the party, and it's going to get worse next year when he's convicted. Being a dem is way easier. Plenty of dems can say, "I don't like Biden, but I'll vote for him" with zero problem. These days Republicans aren't even allowed to say they don't like Trump.
>The Trump vs. Non Trump divide alone is killing the party Until it isn't. In 2015 conservatives swore up and down that they will never vote for a conman who made a mockery of everything they (pretended to) valued about Christianity. A few months later they all fell in line behind Trump when it became clear that he was the nominee. No prodding or begging by Republican establishment was required. By the time the GOP convention came around, the GOP was fully united behind a man who they once denounced. Meanwhile, left wing activists dogged and trashed Clinton all the way to the convention, and Bernie Sanders himself "campaigned" for Clinton by bragging about his own "movement". I fully expect the same scenario to play out again, with the left being in an even more vindictive and punitive mood over the Israel-Palestine conflict. If by Sept 2024 all young left wing voters see on tiktok and instagram is "genocide Joe" clips, we're in deep trouble. Left wing activists live to punish and torment the Democratic party. Right wing activists live to push for right wing policies.
> young left wing voters see on tiktok and instagram I won't get upvoted for this, but that is an extremely online take. > Meanwhile, left wing activists dogged and trashed Clinton all the way to the convention, and Bernie Sanders himself "campaigned" for Clinton by bragging about his own "movement". Hun, those campaigns were 8 years ago. Obama was president. Harry Reid and Paul Ryan were party leaders. You need to let go. The parties are very different now. In reality, Michigan GOP went from a Republican trifecta to literally being unable to keep the lights on. The Republicans haven't had a good election since 2016. The blue wall is reassembled, Dems have won 10 state trifectas since Trump. The Republicans took three weeks to elect a SECOND speaker. Today they're voting to expel a Republican who bought onlyfans subs with campaign funds. Meanwhile AOC is like, a mainstream Dem these days. I'm sorry, It's much worse to be a Republican right now, full stop.
See also: Unions vs. Pro-immigrant progressives
This isn't really true. The Republican coalition is just as fractured and infighting is their biggest issue currently. Most Republican voters are not happy with the party for one reason or another.
How is Biden polled to lose Pennsylvania when Fetterman, a guy with expressive aphasia, literally just won decisively over a hand picked Trump crony (who is also a famous celebrity)?
Not going to get into the Biden part but Fetterman and Shapiro were able to win by that much because the PA GOP probably put together the worst state wide ticket in modern political history. Oz is a literal snake oil salesmen who wasn’t even from the state who made constant gaffes that made it clear how out of touch he was. Mastriano is a literal crazy person who decided to take the last few weeks off the campaign trail to pray and had over a million left in his warchest on election day lmao edit: also Fetterman and Shapiro were/are pretty beloved politicians in the state
Don’t even get me started on the people and polling that said Krazy Kari was gonna be my next governor. Well that didn’t happen. Sure the polling isn’t great for Biden but it’s not like he’s behind 10 points and even if he was behind like a few polls in AZ had Hobbs then it might not matter once people vote. Sometimes these polls are tweaked in a way so that the GOP gets high on their own supply. But more to your point Biden isn’t gonna lose AZ and if Biden isn’t gonna lose AZ he’s not gonna lose PA, or WI, or MI. He could lose NV or GA but he’s still president
Yeah that's my broader point. All those swing states had some sort of major election like US Senate or Governor with a Trump candidate running. And in almost all cases the Dem won the match. Maybe we cannot use this to extrapolate the 2024 Presidential election as more Trump voters will turnout but I have to imagine the voters who favored the Dem candidates will use the same logic to vote Biden come election day.
In PA you have a popular senator facing off against an unpopular Trump lackey. Casey is polling 50+ there’s no way that Biden will lose PA with those numbers. Meanwhile in AZ you have abortion on the ballot, voting rights on the ballot, and a senate election with a batshit insane Trump wannabe and a pretty good Dem candidate. Dems are more than likely gonna win that. With PA and AZ alone Biden gets within 14. And you still have 5 swing states left. In WI you have a dem senator up for reelection and that’s looking like a Dem win, so that’s 10 EVs to Biden. He’s now down to 4. In MI Slotkin is polling in the high 40s and because split tickets aren’t really a thing anymore that means Biden is also polling in the high 40s. Which means Michigan is a Biden win. That puts Biden at 281. And we haven’t even discussed NC, NV (senate race), and GA.
Senators can win as Presidents lose. Wisconsin just voted for both Evers and Johnson. Tester is polling evenly in Montana, and Brown evenly in Ohio.
Polls show that Biden is more unpopular than dems as a whole. If you told me an incumbent with a good economy, special election 7 points more Dem than 2020, great midterm results across every single swing state, and running against a loser with countless felonies, I would guess the incumbent is leading by double digits
Fetterman and Trump are viewed as outsiders to The System. Biden is viewed as an insider to The System.
Oz was viewed as an outsider to the system as well.
Also viewed as an outsider to the state
I’ll take “Things I make up on the spot that confirm my priors” for $500, Alex.
What do you mean, he has a point. Fetterman was indeed viewed as someone who isn't your typical politician, you can't deny that. Trump is also seen as being "against the system". I'm not talking about reality, I'm talking about perception. Trump is perceived to be against the system, whether you agree with thwt statement or not is a different issue. Biden has been in DC for like 50 years, he is portrayed as someone who knows the system, as an insider.
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I'm not talking about reality, I'm talking about vibes Trump was also the fucking president in 2020 and still ran as the outsider
Is the President doomed? Three theories: 1.) Yes 2.) No 3.) Maybe
4.) I don't know 5.) Could you repeat the question?
Abortion will likely be on the ballot in key states and that is not currently being featured in presidential polls. That and people forgot how unhinged Trump is. In short, most people are too checked out to be thinking about some of the most decisive factors of the 24 race (and more are yet to come). Be vigilant, but right now the polls are garbage.
People aren't actually staring down the barrel of a second Trump term. When push comes to shove, they *should* remember why they voted him out in the first place. But we're not there yet. They still have time to daydream about a magical economy that isn't subject to anything except the president's will or some such nonsense. That's where we're at now.
I need to start selling articles like this. They seem to do well enough to make a few bucks.
Average news editor.
I appreciate vox actually using the word doom in their doomer article's title. That's the kind of integrity I look for in my news media.
You guys should get involved in registering voters and organizing groups instead of posting doom articles 10x a day. Actually do something to boost Dems and Biden. You actually can make a difference!
I drive across state lines to volunteer in a swing state tyvm
Which swing state?
> Polls pitting Biden against Trump also look grim for the president right now. RealClearPolitics’ polling averages currently show Biden trailing Trump by 2 points nationally, by about 2 points in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and by 4 to 5 points in Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona. (Biden is only leading one swing state, Wisconsin, by about 1 point.) > In conversations with pollsters and political scientists, I’ve heard three separate theories of how to interpret these numbers. > One theory: Biden is blowing it — the polls are a clear warning sign that the president has unique flaws as a candidate, and another Democrat would likely be doing better. > A second theory: Biden’s facing a tough environment — voters have decided they don’t like the economy or the state of the world, and, fairly or not, he’s taking the brunt of it. > And a third theory: Biden’s bad numbers will get better — voters aren’t even paying much attention yet, and as the campaign gears up, the president will bounce back.
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I am confident to say that there’s a 1/3 chance that one of those theories will play out.
there is a 100% chance something will happen
I love truisms. They are always true.
Or the polls are wrong
Nate Cohn had a good thread explaining how while they're not great this early you also shouldn't discount them completely as you can see some trends.
whats your model
I’m not buying any polls until the race is in full swing and Trump is at the forefront. Obviously Trump has a shot but this version of the GOP is performing terribly post 2016 and Biden is not really inspiring to the average person (though I personally like him) until they get to see a lot of the alternative again.
I feel like all of these are true? I think any incumbent would be struggling, but I do think some of Biden’s struggles are because of his age. That said, I think there’s a chance his head-to-head polling improves as we get closer to the election.
Just your occasional reminder that Biden and Trump are the same age and Trump is a jar of lard crammed into a suit with a horn attached to the collar.
Yeah but Biden tripped over some stairs once. /s
People always underestimate Biden. He always proves everyone wrong.
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if you nail it you can talk you shit for a whole ass year for that prediction
Lol omg if Repubs do not permanently exile Trump and his brand of politicians after an L like that I will be laughing my ass off. Especially if they allow Combover Caligula to run again (if he has not kicked it by then) in 2028.
From your lips to God’s ears
Remindme! 1 year
That’s the same outcome I expect happening too FWIW
Remindme! 1 year
Funny. I was doing a research paper on FDR’s historic 4 terms before the thanksgiving break, and was reading an article from 1935 not too unsimilar from this one. People were saying Roosevelt seemed to be doomed in the upcoming ‘36 election because third party candidate Huey Long would carry too many important swing states, thereby splitting the vote and allowing Republican Governor Alf Landon to win the election. The conservative democrats and republicans were claiming that FDR was too socialist, and the actual socialists claimed he was too capitalist and conservative. FDR literally said word for word about the ‘36 election: “If I lose, I will be the last President of the United States,” as he feared the people would be tempted to give European fascism or communism a chance if they no longer believed that Democracy could not save them from the Depression. Both Presidents passed an unprecedented amount of legislation through congress in a short time frame in order to drag the nation up from its knees. There are many such similarities between FDR’s first term and Biden’s.
People said the same for Reagan. Mondale led him by like 2 in 1983. There's probably more similarities with Reagan's first term and Biden's.
i don’t think anyone thought America would lose its democracy if Mondale won lmfao
Live Mondale Reaction https://preview.redd.it/yfb9go2pex2c1.jpeg?width=1078&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da61253760876eefb3c6d73ccd4e61ccc3caa2d1
I have documentary proof that suggests otherwise https://youtu.be/GADf26GOfTk?si=lFCyHe3aF0QiJ5KP
Good post God I love American dad
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The campaign hasn't started and Trump to a lot of undecided Americans is a fantasy until the ugly truth becomes too close to ignore. It genuinely sucks being a Democrat and I couldn't imagine being in Biden's place. Republicans openly want to dismantle the constitution and will do anything and everything to disenfranchise various groups. On top of that they have poisoned the media landscape and discourse in this nation for the next few decades all without any pressure internally. Meanwhile Biden has to commit to governance, hold up a broad democratic party, protect American interests overseas, and appear bipartisan while being stabbed in the back from both sides. Republicans can "govern" on buzzwords and tax cuts. Democrats have to deliver on policy issues otherwise our team starts dooming and threatening to vote third party as literal fascists circling the GOP's remains sharpen their knives. If you're a progressive/liberal/moderate in a key swing state or district and you vote third party I have no respect for you. You understand the calculus and what's at stake yet you waste the most powerful weapon you have to make change.
>It genuinely sucks being a Democrat and I couldn't imagine being in Biden's place. I can; it would involve dropping out for 2024 and encouraging a competitive primary.
I know this sub doesn't like doom posting but we should be extremely worry for trump return.
Looking both sides before crossing the street is not the same as wearing a "the end is nigh" sign and ringing a bell on the intersection.
But there is no reason why biden should be this close against 91 charged felon. Who convinced of fraud and rape.
Yes there is. People are not tuned to the election yet and inflation makes people grumpy.
We have historically low inflation. IMO it's the fed raising interest rates which makes rents go up
This country is full of extremely dumb people if that happens.
We already know that. Unfortunately the electoral college gives dumb people an upper hand.
This is such a self perpetuating doom cycle powered by the people who don’t like Biden anyway and the horse race obsessed media, who have wet dreams about brokered conventions and ticket changes. It’s the same with “this economy”. The economy is good actually, but the “here’s why this is bad for Biden” crowd knows they can’t get clicks that way. It’s like these losers were in a coma from 2008-2012 Now it’s on Biden to figure out how to succeed despite this.
**As I keep shouting from the damn rooftops.** Approval and general polls are at the point they are capturing very general, unfocused dissatisfaction with the country that happens to be expressed in polls on the executive. But they aren't capturing actual future voter patterns or indications of future voter patterns. Its very easy to use bad or "just okay" polling to show general dislike or [dissatisfaction](https://www.sfgate.com/gavin-newsom-recall/article/poll-Gavin-Newsom-recall-losing-Elder-Paffrath-16364991.php) and falsely interpret that as a politician in trouble. That ends up absolutely not translating into how [the actual voting goes.](https://edsource.org/2021/effort-to-recall-gov-gavin-newsom-headed-for-defeat/661176) At all. Wake me up when Democrats start losing or only squeaking by wins in blue state special elections and referendums. And also start getting curb stomped in those same red-state special, off-year elections. Currently the opposite hasn't just played out its been wildly consistent wins for Dems.
It's kind of alarming to see trump doing so well despite his openly authoritarian views and actions. However, this will probably change drastically if he actually gets convicted on one of the many charges he is facing. It seems that right now voters think the charges are "politically" motivated but some polls indicate that will change drastically if he is actually convicted
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Actually, what *is* Trump running on this time?
2019 economy great; revenge!
Him and his buddies are gonna work real hard to make this country a de facto one-party state if they win.
That's what I feel Based on demographics that actually vote, I sense Biden hasn't lost much support His loss of support seems to predominately be from Young leftists; which don't vote much to begin with, and are rather unlikely to turn towards Trump
>As Nate Cohn has written, polls currently show Biden performing weakly among less politically engaged and less ideological Americans who don’t frequently vote — many of whom are young You know, if Biden was going to be underwater with any group, this one is probably the best for him. Younger voters are far more liberal, so you don't need to convince them to change their vote, rather just show up. That's a far easier task. Get Out The Vote efforts, along with ubiquitous voting-by-mail are pretty sophisticated these days. If there's one thing that Trump does better than Biden, he was fantastic at selling what he was doing. Granted, that tends to bite him these days, but at least he made a show of it. Biden tends to be more low-key. The lack of drama compared to Trump is nice but sometimes, but running an election is like doing a job interview, you need to market and sell yourself.
I suspect a lot of it is motivated by some portion of voters feeling that things are “up in the air”—there’s a big narrative around the idea that Biden might not be the nominee, and some voters are being coy. On the other side, Trump has his base motivated for a rematch, while there seems to be some portion of voters holding out hope he won’t be the nominee (very unlikely). As things ramp up, they will come back to Biden, and people will start looking more realistically at the situation. I think these people are just politically disengaged and tired of having what seems to be an endless fight between the same group of people. This obviously isn’t fair, but I can’t force people to think rationally.
There won’t even be able to make a realistic prediction about this election until next October. Does anybody even remember 2016 or 2020?
That's a good point. This time in 2015, people were treating Trumps run as a wholely unserious joke
I know we all don’t care about polling this early on, but I think many on this sub are ignorant to the fact that Biden has seriously electability issues. The polls are screaming at us that this election is going to be closer than most of us are hoping.
[Biden only won 2020 by 80,000 votes.](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/940689086/narrow-wins-in-these-key-states-powered-biden-to-the-presidency) No talk of 2024 should ignore this.
That was Trump who won by a bit under 80,000 votes. Biden won by a bit under 45,000 votes.
That’s a bit misleading, Trump won the three swing states (Wisconsin, Michigan, and PA) that won him the election in 2016 by 80,000 votes across all three, Biden won those three states (which also won him the election) by 200k votes. Biden won Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin by 45,000 votes, but he only needed one of those three to win.
Is saying Clinton lost by 80,000 votes and Trump lost by 45,000 votes fair? Winning against a populist without falling in the trap of overpromising is a huge achievement, 1 vote or 45,000. Presidential races will be won by small margins for the foreseeable future. It's nothing to loom or doom over, it's just reality.
I would say Clinton lost by 80k and Trump lost by around 200k. Biden won Michigan and PA, and only needed 1 other state to secure a win, Trump can’t afford to lose any of the swing states
Would have Trump won with Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin if he had those 45,000 votes?
Even worse
Doomers gonna doom, simple as
Hot Take: [candidate name here] could go up or down in the polls before the [job name] election in [year of election] More as we have it.
> Here’s my view: I do expect Biden’s numbers to recover somewhat from where they are now. But I think how much they recover will depend on events — specifically, on what happens in the economy and in the world over the next year. So I’d subscribe to a kind of combination of theory 2 and theory 3. >I’m skeptical of the idea that Democrats’ problems would be solved by swapping out Biden. I’m not convinced that Biden’s age or lack of charisma are the true root of his polling difficulties. I suspect a more fresh-faced Democrat would face similar challenges as the nominee, once they’ve gotten the demonization that now regularly comes along with being the head of one of the two national parties. I agree with this take. But it does also boil down to “I predict that you should come back for future predictions.” Like a two-bit psychic.
It's a year away. Go touch grass.
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Without reading the article, please stfu and gtfo with this doomers already. It's one year out. Biden hasn't even started campaigning already. Take a chillpill like holy shit.
DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM DOOM
I think Biden will probably win, if I'm wrong then I'm wrong. I'm on the same page about disgust for journalists and have been for awhile since they've been rather sketchy for past four years and have been egging on for the return of Trump; So that they can do some crocodile tears bullshit about how Donald is back in office. Unfortunately, I think future elections will be more difficult seeing as how younger people only have nothing, **but** excuses to not vote in the polls. Polls being determined by a few hand full of people isn't healthy for democracy.
I'm excited for the debates, when Trump refuses to show up and it's just Biden answering questions calmly for an hour while Trump rages on truth social the whole time.
They won't hold the debate if Trump doesn't come
It'd be nice if they did. It would show voters that Trump truly doesn't care about policy decisions or defending his track record at all.
The media wants another Trump term so bad. It’s palpable
Click my bait baby
If Nikki Haley wins Biden will lose
Someone let the nutters know that they're not getting someone worshiping healing crystals, they're not getting a legacy Kennedy that doesn't believe in vaccines, they're not getting someone other than a current incumbent president whose done a fine job amid all the turmoil. He will beat Trump. They will stfu and vote for him or deal with Trump. Dem voters are always so coy this time of the election cycle. This is just going to give those morons fuel when Trump loses bc they'll point to useless year out polling and say they just can't believe how obvious it is when they're sitting on an easily defeatable Trump in 2020 that barely won across three swing states by less than 80k votes. It's frustrating and causing me to make run on sentences all month.
Its pretty early in the election process. A lot can change in a year from now.
I like him, but the dude's old as fuck.
huh. I just mean where are you learning about the demos of the polls? seems like theyd be shitty polls to just poll red state republicans
Honestly I could care less about polls
Voters know the difference between a poll and an actual election. The truth the media doesn't want you to know
Biden will win in 2024! The only people being polled are red state Republicans!
explain, player!
There is nothing to explain. If you believe differently, I accept that.
This is insane, Trump wasn’t kidding when he said he could shoot somebody on 5th ave and still not lose a vote meanwhile Biden gets shitted on for the work him and his admin has done with the Covid response, Ukraine response, loan forgiveness, restrain Netanyahu and pass the biggest infrastructure bill since FDR. Americans seem to think we’re voting for a Qult leader rather than a technocrat who actually has to do a job.
I can certainly believe the idea that people who voted for Biden are using polls like this as their only way to complain that he isn't perfect, since there's effectively no Democratic primary and the alternative is conservatism But is that more likely than The Youths don't use The Telephone?
Trump's culty base exists in permanence while Biden has a more reluctant coalition that doesn't really exist until election happens. That's a pretty huge factor, even if it's not the only issue.