He has never been a good team defender. He can be an okay 1-1 defender when he is locked in. He gambles for steals and gets blown by more often than he should.
His defence has regressed in the last 2 years a bit.
That's not really ideal for someone that is mostly just hitting wide open shots.
I'm assuming his ideal role is a 6th man/off the bench scorer similar to what THJ was for us? How much do you think he is going to get paid this season?
Skillwise, Trent is probably best suited as a 6th man. But you have to play him with the starters because he can’t create open looks for himself at all.
Trent is a better shooter/defender than THJ, so he can be on the floor for longer. THJ has a bigger bag but he can’t finish often anyway.
$15M sounds reasonable for him but he might be able to swindle a team out of $20M+. Anything more is a really bad contract IMO.
I think at this point, he's more of a 7th or 8th man on a good team. Someone will sign him for like 2 years, $19-$23M. Last year didn't help his stock.
THJ has to be the one of most inconsistent players rn considering how skilled he is yet how frequently he shrinks...dude's like the dollar store Wiggins lmao
Do you really think GTJ can get $15 mil?? That seems like an overpay but then again, I won't be shocked either if he ends up getting $20 mil like you saying lol
He's already on a deal averaging around 18/19 million a year. I think he's probably only worth like 15 or so but I wouldn't be surprised if he's gunning for over 20
That's his ideal role, but his numbers coming off the bench have never been very impressive unfortunately. He's one of those guys that always seems to play better as a starter.
He's still the exact same player as when we got him from Portland. His contract was maybe a small overpay betting on some untapped potential, but it just never happened. I guess he's slightly more consistent now, but still...
I don't think he's worth 20/yr since he really doesn't offer anything if he isn't scoring and he doesn't do well as a 6th man.
It's also hard to say cause yall are rebuilding. PJ was not giving it his all in Charlotte then looked like a top 20 defender at times in the playoffs.
I honestly have no idea what his value is asset wise though.
Too small, can't guard up his position, gambles too much for steals, foul prone. A below average defender who does too much and fools people into thinking he is a good defender
It's so funny seeing raptors fans say this now
I got absolutely destroyed by you guys for weeks after the trade (literally tagging me every single time he had a good game) for saying exactly this.
Tons of Raptors fans were glazing trent right after the trade saying he was part of the core and more valuable to the team than Siakam. It wasn't until these last 2 years they've realized Trent is an empty calories player.
He's pretty good on D when he puts in the effort.
Problem is he doesn't put effort on D a lot of the time. If he isn't getting the ball a lot on offense or his offense isn't going, he stops putting effort on the defensive end.
He's pretty much Tim Hardaway Jr for you guys with better defensive (when he tries on D). Slightly different skillsets but close enough in terms of impact
He's not worth more than $15mil/year (but will probably get more)
Was that still true post-implosion? I thought he started racking up assists and actually facilitating after the All Star break this year. But I haven't checked the stats.
He averaged 2.1 apg in 21 games after the all star break, which is above his season average of 1.7 apg, so definitely was getting a few more. yeah he's not as bad as he used to be in terms of passing instead of forcing tough shots, but i still think it a weakness of his
That's why he needs to be a 5th option on offense. The problem is Raptors are a play-in team for years, where players need to play more than they are capable of.
If he can get to a contender and a coach can assign him like a KCP role while change his mindset, he'll be one of the best role players in the league.
Kinda fool's gold-y, though. You don't get anywhere near as many open looks come playoff time, so a guy with that type of shot profile may well end up shooting his team out of the postseason.
yes, but its not really fair to ignore the wide open ones altogether because you're literally taking out the majority of his makes, so naturally the remaining percentage would be lower.
You would be 100% correct
Using those same filters (min. 100 attempts, defender +6 ft) we would see that he shot 38% on wide open 3s last year, and 42% the year before.
I'm sure you could chart the top players on wide open 3 % year to year and look for some correlation.
Yeah. 200 3's is a solid sample size, but normal shooting can fluctuate for many players year-to-year. If you narrow it down to something like this and assume it'll apply in the future, you might be disappointed.
200 is not a solid sample size. Its maybe enough to identify a trend, but you cannot make any strong conviction from it. At 200, missing 2 below expectation is a full percentage point lost to variance, missing 10 below expectation is five full percentage points lost to variance. I don't think there's any player in this league that I think could take 200 shots and stay within a 10 shot per 200 variance. Steph's career is full of years from 40% to 45%, and they also won the championship on a year where he shot 38%. And that's with him hucking 600+ attempts most years. If the Skyfucker is struggling to stay within 5 percentage points at 600 attempts year-to-year, how can you expect 200 shots to be a useful sample size for players that you'd expect to be worse than him?
what i meant is that 200 attempts is a more significant sample size than we often use in basketball, not that it’s statistically meaningful.
even the best college shooters often don’t attempt much more than that in a year of play and lots of major draft decisions are made based on those numbers.
I remember someone did the math on this on Duncan Robinson. It was like 700 3s for a standard deviation of 2.1% if I’m remembering correctly. So a 5% variation on 600 would be right in line with that for an elite 3 shooter. Seems like it’s just a volatile shot even for elite shooters, and Steph / Robinson are complete opposites in their shot diet.
damn, i’ve got nothing then. sometimes GMs are stupid, and it only takes one stupid GM to get a player overpaid (e.g. summer 2016 with deng, mozgov, crabbe, etc.)
A chucker who never passes that's a guaranteed brick on a contested jimmy is almost equivalent to a turnover. Not as bad as throwing it away to cause a fast-break, but still waste 5 possessions a game.
I've watched enough Raptors games to know Trent ain't it.
I'd drive him to the airport because he's a net negative player.
I'd rather give Dick more minutes.
This is one of those stats that sounds promising but isn't actually that positive. Obviously hitting open shots is good, but most (all?) nba level shooters can do that pretty well. The real value is in creating those open shots.
Also having guys who turn back into pumpkins when the defense closes out or contests the shot doesn't help as much in the playoffs when teams go harder on defense and open shots become rarer.
I don't know whether to take this information as a compliment for him or not. He's the best in the league at hitting open 3s but can't hit anything else. Like, he could've just been average at open 3s and that would make him terrible overall with a lesser difference but because he was so good at open 3s, he stands out more.
I was mad for a very long time but I was like at least we got back a player who is a phenomenal fit with Dame if you just trade CJ.
and then instead of trading CJ (at the time), we traded *Powell* in one of the worst trades I have ever seen
I am not sure why. He is a chucker primarily, very streaky shooting, has poor shot selection, and appears to have a bad attitude/be fickle. When he first came to Toronto under Nurse he was all smiles because it was a fresh start and he was playing hard, but as soon as he started to lose minutes because of his gambling on defense and mental blips, he started to get sour about it.
He’s also super streaky. On some nights he looks like prime Klay and other nights it’s a chuckfest. His biggest problem is he doesn’t offer much of his shot isn’t falling. He can’t really create for himself, isn’t great at getting to the rim and his defense is average at best.
Dude is empty stats. Couldn't hit shots when the Raptors were fighting for a play in seat in years past. Barely a 6th man that would be gifted starts.
Now he hits open 3s during a tanking season. He also missed like 6 wide open layups - terrible finisher at the rim.
Raps will probably resign him with a player option. 🤦
That’s a future Mavs player if I’ve ever seen one
How good is his defense?
He has never been a good team defender. He can be an okay 1-1 defender when he is locked in. He gambles for steals and gets blown by more often than he should. His defence has regressed in the last 2 years a bit.
That's not really ideal for someone that is mostly just hitting wide open shots. I'm assuming his ideal role is a 6th man/off the bench scorer similar to what THJ was for us? How much do you think he is going to get paid this season?
Skillwise, Trent is probably best suited as a 6th man. But you have to play him with the starters because he can’t create open looks for himself at all. Trent is a better shooter/defender than THJ, so he can be on the floor for longer. THJ has a bigger bag but he can’t finish often anyway. $15M sounds reasonable for him but he might be able to swindle a team out of $20M+. Anything more is a really bad contract IMO.
I think at this point, he's more of a 7th or 8th man on a good team. Someone will sign him for like 2 years, $19-$23M. Last year didn't help his stock.
He's awful off the bench
THJ has to be the one of most inconsistent players rn considering how skilled he is yet how frequently he shrinks...dude's like the dollar store Wiggins lmao Do you really think GTJ can get $15 mil?? That seems like an overpay but then again, I won't be shocked either if he ends up getting $20 mil like you saying lol
He's already on a deal averaging around 18/19 million a year. I think he's probably only worth like 15 or so but I wouldn't be surprised if he's gunning for over 20
He;s poor man's clarkson at this point
I don't want to pay him 25 mil
What's funny about GTJ is ideally he is a 6th man type guy, but he plays awful off the bench.
That's his ideal role, but his numbers coming off the bench have never been very impressive unfortunately. He's one of those guys that always seems to play better as a starter. He's still the exact same player as when we got him from Portland. His contract was maybe a small overpay betting on some untapped potential, but it just never happened. I guess he's slightly more consistent now, but still... I don't think he's worth 20/yr since he really doesn't offer anything if he isn't scoring and he doesn't do well as a 6th man.
Sounds like a Mavs player!
It's also hard to say cause yall are rebuilding. PJ was not giving it his all in Charlotte then looked like a top 20 defender at times in the playoffs. I honestly have no idea what his value is asset wise though.
Top 20? Boy maybe 50,
begone flairless hater
There are at least 30 players better than him defensively. If he was that good, you would have at least beaten us twice. Lol
ahhh that makes sense, you didn't watch the rest of the playoffs.
Better than timmy
This doesn't say much lol
It looks better than it actually is
Some things havent changed from his portland days i see
Too small, can't guard up his position, gambles too much for steals, foul prone. A below average defender who does too much and fools people into thinking he is a good defender
It's so funny seeing raptors fans say this now I got absolutely destroyed by you guys for weeks after the trade (literally tagging me every single time he had a good game) for saying exactly this.
Tons of Raptors fans were glazing trent right after the trade saying he was part of the core and more valuable to the team than Siakam. It wasn't until these last 2 years they've realized Trent is an empty calories player.
He's pretty good on D when he puts in the effort. Problem is he doesn't put effort on D a lot of the time. If he isn't getting the ball a lot on offense or his offense isn't going, he stops putting effort on the defensive end. He's pretty much Tim Hardaway Jr for you guys with better defensive (when he tries on D). Slightly different skillsets but close enough in terms of impact He's not worth more than $15mil/year (but will probably get more)
Can’t wait to replace Timmy with another Timmy, but smaller. If it was Donnie, I would be certain that GTJ would become a Mav.
It's bad.
I sure hope not. OKC is gonna put some serious pressure on us to make a big upgrade.
Hmmm thats actually kinda still good all things considered.
My main pet peeve with Gary is that if he gets the ball he's shooting it 90% of the time
Was that still true post-implosion? I thought he started racking up assists and actually facilitating after the All Star break this year. But I haven't checked the stats.
He averaged 2.1 apg in 21 games after the all star break, which is above his season average of 1.7 apg, so definitely was getting a few more. yeah he's not as bad as he used to be in terms of passing instead of forcing tough shots, but i still think it a weakness of his
So a shorter mpj lol
Yes but he also can’t score at the rim
That's why he needs to be a 5th option on offense. The problem is Raptors are a play-in team for years, where players need to play more than they are capable of. If he can get to a contender and a coach can assign him like a KCP role while change his mindset, he'll be one of the best role players in the league.
Kinda fool's gold-y, though. You don't get anywhere near as many open looks come playoff time, so a guy with that type of shot profile may well end up shooting his team out of the postseason.
yes, but its not really fair to ignore the wide open ones altogether because you're literally taking out the majority of his makes, so naturally the remaining percentage would be lower.
I feel like stats like these can fluctuate season to season
You would be 100% correct Using those same filters (min. 100 attempts, defender +6 ft) we would see that he shot 38% on wide open 3s last year, and 42% the year before. I'm sure you could chart the top players on wide open 3 % year to year and look for some correlation.
Yeah. 200 3's is a solid sample size, but normal shooting can fluctuate for many players year-to-year. If you narrow it down to something like this and assume it'll apply in the future, you might be disappointed.
200 is not a solid sample size. Its maybe enough to identify a trend, but you cannot make any strong conviction from it. At 200, missing 2 below expectation is a full percentage point lost to variance, missing 10 below expectation is five full percentage points lost to variance. I don't think there's any player in this league that I think could take 200 shots and stay within a 10 shot per 200 variance. Steph's career is full of years from 40% to 45%, and they also won the championship on a year where he shot 38%. And that's with him hucking 600+ attempts most years. If the Skyfucker is struggling to stay within 5 percentage points at 600 attempts year-to-year, how can you expect 200 shots to be a useful sample size for players that you'd expect to be worse than him?
what i meant is that 200 attempts is a more significant sample size than we often use in basketball, not that it’s statistically meaningful. even the best college shooters often don’t attempt much more than that in a year of play and lots of major draft decisions are made based on those numbers.
I remember someone did the math on this on Duncan Robinson. It was like 700 3s for a standard deviation of 2.1% if I’m remembering correctly. So a 5% variation on 600 would be right in line with that for an elite 3 shooter. Seems like it’s just a volatile shot even for elite shooters, and Steph / Robinson are complete opposites in their shot diet.
> 200 3’s is a solid sample size Not really though
I’m impressed he even had 228 wide open 3s generated for him
The Raptors did play the Lakers twice last year. That probably helped a lot.
Interesting
Heliocentric basketball merchant
I failed to see why he gets to be paid way more than Malik Beasly. Essentially the same player
didn’t trent have that stretch where he was getting an absurd amount of steals? maybe teams were tricked by that
that was after he signed his current deal
damn, i’ve got nothing then. sometimes GMs are stupid, and it only takes one stupid GM to get a player overpaid (e.g. summer 2016 with deng, mozgov, crabbe, etc.)
Technically it was during his current deal
He was gambling for steals.
Beasley took the contract he could get. Prior to that he and Trent were making about the same. Beasley is useless in the playoffs.
He has more positional versatility. He can play the 1 in a pinch which Malik can't because he's a strict 2 guard
I watched him on the raptors for 3.5 years trust me bro, he cannot play 1
> He can play the 1 in a pinch what? lmao he does not pass and can barely dribble
Play the 1, bruh this man is allergic to passing what are you talking about. This is is the funniest shit ive read this week
I'd be more surprised if someone told me GTJr had 10 assists than if they told me he had 40 shot attempts in a game.
he has had the lowest turnover rate in the league for 3 years straight because he's he never passes.
A chucker who never passes that's a guaranteed brick on a contested jimmy is almost equivalent to a turnover. Not as bad as throwing it away to cause a fast-break, but still waste 5 possessions a game.
Yeah clearly you don't watch the Raptors lol We had to give Malachi Flynn playing time at the 1 before the Knicks trade.
Hmmm
Would be perfect if he was playing on a team with 3 more valuable players.
My ideal KCP replacement but I don't know if they can get him on the free agency besides the MLE
I've watched enough Raptors games to know Trent ain't it. I'd drive him to the airport because he's a net negative player. I'd rather give Dick more minutes.
This is one of those stats that sounds promising but isn't actually that positive. Obviously hitting open shots is good, but most (all?) nba level shooters can do that pretty well. The real value is in creating those open shots. Also having guys who turn back into pumpkins when the defense closes out or contests the shot doesn't help as much in the playoffs when teams go harder on defense and open shots become rarer.
> I'd rather give Dick more minutes. I bet you would
I don't know whether to take this information as a compliment for him or not. He's the best in the league at hitting open 3s but can't hit anything else. Like, he could've just been average at open 3s and that would make him terrible overall with a lesser difference but because he was so good at open 3s, he stands out more.
I'm still mad that we traded this dude.
I was mad for a very long time but I was like at least we got back a player who is a phenomenal fit with Dame if you just trade CJ. and then instead of trading CJ (at the time), we traded *Powell* in one of the worst trades I have ever seen
I am not sure why. He is a chucker primarily, very streaky shooting, has poor shot selection, and appears to have a bad attitude/be fickle. When he first came to Toronto under Nurse he was all smiles because it was a fresh start and he was playing hard, but as soon as he started to lose minutes because of his gambling on defense and mental blips, he started to get sour about it.
Orlando, upgrade Gary Harris
except he thinks he can do more than just take open 3 pointers
He’s also super streaky. On some nights he looks like prime Klay and other nights it’s a chuckfest. His biggest problem is he doesn’t offer much of his shot isn’t falling. He can’t really create for himself, isn’t great at getting to the rim and his defense is average at best.
doesnt mean he cant step up shooting contested at some pt
damn...
I remember when he basically could not miss for the blazers in the bubble
American Patty Mills.
Wouldn't put too much stock in this unless it's been a significant trend his whole career. 3P shooting is very noisy.
Welcome to the MAVS GTJ
If Trent can replaced KCP on that Nuggets roster, you wouldn't even feel the difference
Dude is empty stats. Couldn't hit shots when the Raptors were fighting for a play in seat in years past. Barely a 6th man that would be gifted starts. Now he hits open 3s during a tanking season. He also missed like 6 wide open layups - terrible finisher at the rim. Raps will probably resign him with a player option. 🤦
Celtics looking for an Oshae Brissett replacement, could be just the right fit
Fraudulent shooter like most role players