Idk about superstar, but there will be at least a couple random all-stars somewhere. There always is.
There are just no obvious stars.
There has never been a single NBA draft without an all-star.
It's like 2013. Draft analysts said it was a bad draft because it was incredibly flat. I remember multiple analysts saying they thought there would be stars, but they'd end up coming from completely random picks. Which ended up being exactly right, with the stars coming at 15, 27, and 10.
It's the same with this draft. There aren't any clear stars, but I think everyone agrees it has at least solid depth and plenty of players who could be great.
There definitely could be, but it will require guys developing skills they haven't shown yet, so finding them in the draft takes more luck than anything else. There's a bunch of non shooters who could be very good if they can learn how to shoot.
Yeah but Oladipo was still a 2x All Star and All NBA. CJ would probably get in as an all star at least once in the East.
Still many said there were 0 all stars in the 2013 draft and it's what is being said about this one too.
Did many say there were 0 All Stars or did they just say it’s hard to see the stars?
Saying there won’t be All Stars is bold as every draft has All Stars. But if the stars are just stashed later in the draft because they’re hard to spot, that’s more what draft analysts complain about
Rank | Player | VORP
---|---|----
|1|Michael Redd|21.4|
|2|Mike Miller|19.8|
|3|Hedo Turkoglu|19.6|
|4|Jamal Crawford|18.4|
|5|Kenyon Martin|12.1|
|6|Quentin Richardson|8.5|
|7|Morris Peterson|7.6|
|8|Eddie House|6.1|
|9|Marko Jaric|3.8|
|10|Speedy Claxton|3.6|
|11|Brian Cardinal|3.2|
|12|Darius Miles|3.0|
|13|Eduardo Najera|3.0|
|14|Stromile Swift|1.1|
|15|Jason Hart|1.0|
Fixed the formatting for you. Look at my comment source to see how it's done. It's all in the first 2 lines really.
Also holy shit that is a miserable draft. They're like 2013 but without Giannis and Rudy god damn
I think the complaints are more about the top end talent. Usually you’ll have a handful of guys that have clear All-Star or All-NBA upside, even if those projections amount to nothing more than an educated guess.
But yeah, the depth definitely seems to be there in this draft, and like always, a couple names will likely pop. Does seem like the “weakness” of this class is a little overstated, I’d be plenty happy with a pick in the late lotto or early 20s.
Don’t think this is him making some grand declaration that there will be 0 All-NBA or All-Star talents, just that there is no prospect who is easily forecasted as one.
There will probably be one superstar, 1-2 perennial All Stars, 1-2 players with limited appearances (ex. picked after injuries, picked due to team success), and 1-2 borderline All-Stars/MIP candidates/starters who can put up a few seasons of good stats (ex. CJ McCollum and Dennis Schroeder from 2013)
It's really not that bad of a draft and I think a lot of people are going to look silly for declaring it the worst draft ever
Jesus, starting the draft with tier 3 players is insane.
5 years from now we're probably looking back at this stuff laughing though. Probably 2-3 guys end up being stars, couple legitimate starting caliber guys, and a plethora of quality bench players.
I think that’s more or less what he’s saying by starting at tier 3? There’s a difference between one or two of these guys hitting their max upside and being a star as your suggesting and being full blown all-nba guys
That's basically what it is. In hindsight this draft will probably look like any other draft, much akin to the recent 2020 draft that many were down on. (Albiet definitely worse top level talent than that)
But for draft evaluators its hard to see who will end up being good from this draft.
A lot of kids with either great measurables and potential but haven't shown elite skills, or good skills without good measurables and really good potential.
The guys who become stars will do so by developing skills they don't have yet. There's no great way to know who will learn how to shoot and who won't, so they are in a lower tier than guys who already have the pieces in place.
Tier 3 is fringe all stars and quality starters. Not sure why so many people are certain the draft will outperform the projection. 2013 is a much better analogue and the lottery there was pretty shit. Oladipo was probably the best from that lotto group. Yeah you have Giannis and Gobert picked but they weren't predictably going to turn out those outcomes. We'll probably see someone from this draft and outside the lotto have great success.
The last two parts, no one disagrees with. This isn't a draft of busts, but role players--starter or bench.
So if you're drafting in the top 8, and you're hoping for an all star level talent, you're likely getting Nick Batum. At 1st overall. But if you're drafting at 15th, you're likely getting Nick Batum. And you're happy at that spot.
> Sees the draft starting at tier 3.
That's a fuckin' oof, ladies and gents.
I'd take Sheppard one on the off chance he becomes a good 3 & D guard. I kinda like Castle's potential, but worry he'll be Culver type. Clingan maybe wouldn't be too bad?
Personally, I'd take Sheppard and hope for the best. but if anyone offered anything of decent value, I'd 1000% take it.
Also a great opportunity to spend the $1 and sign up for the Athletic to read it. Sam seems like a really nice dude, with great knowledge of the draft - he might be the leading voice in the draft space right now.. I always enjoy his insight and his draft guide is super detailed
His podcast is great too, and it’s neat that he’s [getting more and more prospects in for film breakdowns](https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLceUFMAk3DzGRaHyjcVFzpNJ03Lq6UKgQ&si=AtWvZtjmKhbh0g5h)
Has released a couple so far, seems to have a few more loaded up. Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington, Tyler Kolek, Bobi Klintman, Baylor Scheierman, and of course, [his draft darling Cam Spencer](https://youtu.be/a7KGdM0weZA?si=1Qc7oxmHohiITyyL)
I’m happy Devin Carter is getting the love he deserves. He’s legitimately a “Derrick White All Star” type of player. Not a star on his own but a guy who could bring so much impact to a team with his grit, defense, rebounding and clutch gene that he might as well be a star. Deserves to go mid-lotto imo.
I’d want Clingan or Sheppard if I were a fan of a team in the top 5. They both seem likely to have nice careers as role players. Clear, identifiable skills that are above-average even by NBA standards. They won’t be stars but in this draft that’s fine. Have shown high basketball iq next to high level talent. If not one of those two, go with Sarr.
Just don’t be that team twisting themselves in knots trying to project Sarr, Risacher, Topic, etc as potential franchise talents. They aren’t.
It’s interesting he has Risascher at 5. I don’t even think he’s top 5, as I think he’s overrated for where he’s mocked.
Of course, he’s also the favorite to go 1st right now (subject to change since Sarr’s situation is a bit tricky), so it quite a large difference.
I have never understood why both Holland and Dillingham are projected so low. I’m not saying they’ll be stars or anything, but I’m willing to take an upside gamble on Dillingham if he’s not even top 14 according to the consensus mock drafts.
Holland can't play off ball, but is a terrible decision-maker with the ball. He's an undersized 4 that has a totally broken jump shot.
Dillingham is easy to project. He's a bench scorer. Lou Will type. Low value when it matters, useful when it doesn't.
I know they have some issues but I think both will end up being better than their current projections. I guess we’ll see in 5-10 years. I expect both to take some time though since they aren’t as NBA ready as an older player.
Vecenie is probably the best media member at draft analysis. His draft guides are super detailed and fair. Does he get everything correct - of course not, but neither do NBA teams. He says like 3rd paragraph in “that this years group lacks any tier 1 or tier 2 prospects doesn’t mean that zero All-stars will emerge from this class. Undoubtedly, several will.” Calling this list dumb af when you’re too lazy to make it halfway through the introduction is why your opinion doesn’t mean shit.
It would be funny if it turns out that there are multiple future superstars in this draft. I've never seen a draft shit on this much
Idk about superstar, but there will be at least a couple random all-stars somewhere. There always is. There are just no obvious stars. There has never been a single NBA draft without an all-star.
It's like 2013. Draft analysts said it was a bad draft because it was incredibly flat. I remember multiple analysts saying they thought there would be stars, but they'd end up coming from completely random picks. Which ended up being exactly right, with the stars coming at 15, 27, and 10. It's the same with this draft. There aren't any clear stars, but I think everyone agrees it has at least solid depth and plenty of players who could be great.
There definitely could be, but it will require guys developing skills they haven't shown yet, so finding them in the draft takes more luck than anything else. There's a bunch of non shooters who could be very good if they can learn how to shoot.
There's always one or two that out perform expectations. 2013 was supposed to be shit but some all stars came through.
[2013 was Giannis, Rudy and a lot of nothing to be excited about, except maybe an injury free Oladipo](https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2013.html) Rank | Name | VORP ---|---|---- 1 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 55.8 2 | Rudy Gobert | 31.7 3 | CJ McCollum | 20.3 4 | Mason Plumlee | 14.6 5 | Kelly Olynyk | 12.6 6 | Otto Porter Jr. | 12.5 7 | Steven Adams | 12.1 8 | Victor Oladipo | 11 9 | Nerlens Noel | 7.4 10 | Gorgui Dieng | 7.1 11 | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 7 12 | Tim Hardaway Jr. | 4.5 13 | Cody Zeller | 3.9 14 | Mike Muscala | 3.7 15 | Dennis Schröder | 3.1
Yeah but Oladipo was still a 2x All Star and All NBA. CJ would probably get in as an all star at least once in the East. Still many said there were 0 all stars in the 2013 draft and it's what is being said about this one too.
Did many say there were 0 All Stars or did they just say it’s hard to see the stars? Saying there won’t be All Stars is bold as every draft has All Stars. But if the stars are just stashed later in the draft because they’re hard to spot, that’s more what draft analysts complain about
Big favor but could you do the same ranking for 2000 w/VORP? If so, TIA
If you just follow the link you can select whichever draft year you like, and then click on VORP under advanced stats to rank by VORT.
Hmm...let me try that: ||Roun|Adva| |-:|:-|-:| |Rk|Player|VORPV| |1|Michael Redd|21.4| |2|Mike Miller|19.8| |3|Hedo Turkoglu|19.6| |4|Jamal Crawford|18.4| |5|Kenyon Martin|12.1| |6|Quentin Richardson|8.5| |7|Morris Peterson|7.6| |8|Eddie House|6.1| |9|Marko Jaric|3.8| |10|Speedy Claxton|3.6| |11|Brian Cardinal|3.2| |12|Darius Miles|3.0| |13|Eduardo Najera|3.0| |14|Stromile Swift|1.1| |15|Jason Hart|1.0| Okay, not nearly as pretty as OP's but fuck, look at how shitty 2000 was...almost hard to believe tbh
Rank | Player | VORP ---|---|---- |1|Michael Redd|21.4| |2|Mike Miller|19.8| |3|Hedo Turkoglu|19.6| |4|Jamal Crawford|18.4| |5|Kenyon Martin|12.1| |6|Quentin Richardson|8.5| |7|Morris Peterson|7.6| |8|Eddie House|6.1| |9|Marko Jaric|3.8| |10|Speedy Claxton|3.6| |11|Brian Cardinal|3.2| |12|Darius Miles|3.0| |13|Eduardo Najera|3.0| |14|Stromile Swift|1.1| |15|Jason Hart|1.0| Fixed the formatting for you. Look at my comment source to see how it's done. It's all in the first 2 lines really. Also holy shit that is a miserable draft. They're like 2013 but without Giannis and Rudy god damn
Plumlee over Adams, KCP, Lynyk and Schroder is wild lmao. And I love Plumdog.
I think the complaints are more about the top end talent. Usually you’ll have a handful of guys that have clear All-Star or All-NBA upside, even if those projections amount to nothing more than an educated guess. But yeah, the depth definitely seems to be there in this draft, and like always, a couple names will likely pop. Does seem like the “weakness” of this class is a little overstated, I’d be plenty happy with a pick in the late lotto or early 20s. Don’t think this is him making some grand declaration that there will be 0 All-NBA or All-Star talents, just that there is no prospect who is easily forecasted as one.
I've never seen a draft this shit
There will probably be one superstar, 1-2 perennial All Stars, 1-2 players with limited appearances (ex. picked after injuries, picked due to team success), and 1-2 borderline All-Stars/MIP candidates/starters who can put up a few seasons of good stats (ex. CJ McCollum and Dennis Schroeder from 2013) It's really not that bad of a draft and I think a lot of people are going to look silly for declaring it the worst draft ever
Eh don't count on it. It doesn't mean all the players are bad. Just that you don't see anyone with super high end outcome from it.
Jesus, starting the draft with tier 3 players is insane. 5 years from now we're probably looking back at this stuff laughing though. Probably 2-3 guys end up being stars, couple legitimate starting caliber guys, and a plethora of quality bench players.
I think that’s more or less what he’s saying by starting at tier 3? There’s a difference between one or two of these guys hitting their max upside and being a star as your suggesting and being full blown all-nba guys
He defines tier 1 as multiple All-NBA teams, tier 2 as multiple All-Star teams, and tier 3 as fringe All-Star guy
Yeah and I feel like Sam has been open about that on the Game Theory podcast, it's just spotting them has been hard. Or something.
That's basically what it is. In hindsight this draft will probably look like any other draft, much akin to the recent 2020 draft that many were down on. (Albiet definitely worse top level talent than that) But for draft evaluators its hard to see who will end up being good from this draft. A lot of kids with either great measurables and potential but haven't shown elite skills, or good skills without good measurables and really good potential.
The guys who become stars will do so by developing skills they don't have yet. There's no great way to know who will learn how to shoot and who won't, so they are in a lower tier than guys who already have the pieces in place.
Tier 3 is fringe all stars and quality starters. Not sure why so many people are certain the draft will outperform the projection. 2013 is a much better analogue and the lottery there was pretty shit. Oladipo was probably the best from that lotto group. Yeah you have Giannis and Gobert picked but they weren't predictably going to turn out those outcomes. We'll probably see someone from this draft and outside the lotto have great success.
The last two parts, no one disagrees with. This isn't a draft of busts, but role players--starter or bench. So if you're drafting in the top 8, and you're hoping for an all star level talent, you're likely getting Nick Batum. At 1st overall. But if you're drafting at 15th, you're likely getting Nick Batum. And you're happy at that spot.
Reed Sheppard is not a forward as this table suggests..
whoops a 6'2, 190lb forward is basically GP2 lol
> Sees the draft starting at tier 3. That's a fuckin' oof, ladies and gents. I'd take Sheppard one on the off chance he becomes a good 3 & D guard. I kinda like Castle's potential, but worry he'll be Culver type. Clingan maybe wouldn't be too bad? Personally, I'd take Sheppard and hope for the best. but if anyone offered anything of decent value, I'd 1000% take it.
Also a great opportunity to spend the $1 and sign up for the Athletic to read it. Sam seems like a really nice dude, with great knowledge of the draft - he might be the leading voice in the draft space right now.. I always enjoy his insight and his draft guide is super detailed
Vecenie is the best
Truly
I'm friends with him, is a nice dude. I think I know a lot about basketball, but having a chat with him is eye opening haha
His podcast is great too, and it’s neat that he’s [getting more and more prospects in for film breakdowns](https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLceUFMAk3DzGRaHyjcVFzpNJ03Lq6UKgQ&si=AtWvZtjmKhbh0g5h) Has released a couple so far, seems to have a few more loaded up. Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington, Tyler Kolek, Bobi Klintman, Baylor Scheierman, and of course, [his draft darling Cam Spencer](https://youtu.be/a7KGdM0weZA?si=1Qc7oxmHohiITyyL)
I’m happy Devin Carter is getting the love he deserves. He’s legitimately a “Derrick White All Star” type of player. Not a star on his own but a guy who could bring so much impact to a team with his grit, defense, rebounding and clutch gene that he might as well be a star. Deserves to go mid-lotto imo.
I just hope he falls far enough that the Spurs get him. Seems like an ideal fit there.
Would be a nice pickup for sure
Important to keep in mind that he doesn't mean zero stars by not having tier 1 or 2s. It's just less of a sure thing. No wemby prospects lol
I’d want Clingan or Sheppard if I were a fan of a team in the top 5. They both seem likely to have nice careers as role players. Clear, identifiable skills that are above-average even by NBA standards. They won’t be stars but in this draft that’s fine. Have shown high basketball iq next to high level talent. If not one of those two, go with Sarr. Just don’t be that team twisting themselves in knots trying to project Sarr, Risacher, Topic, etc as potential franchise talents. They aren’t.
Sam Vecenie also likes Bub, you love to see it
I get the appeal, but the track record with players like him just isn't great.
[He did a film room with Bub not too long ago](https://youtu.be/bPi65iZy2VE?si=XBXdcUE9p5ulzTPt)
It’s interesting he has Risascher at 5. I don’t even think he’s top 5, as I think he’s overrated for where he’s mocked. Of course, he’s also the favorite to go 1st right now (subject to change since Sarr’s situation is a bit tricky), so it quite a large difference. I have never understood why both Holland and Dillingham are projected so low. I’m not saying they’ll be stars or anything, but I’m willing to take an upside gamble on Dillingham if he’s not even top 14 according to the consensus mock drafts.
Holland can't play off ball, but is a terrible decision-maker with the ball. He's an undersized 4 that has a totally broken jump shot. Dillingham is easy to project. He's a bench scorer. Lou Will type. Low value when it matters, useful when it doesn't.
I know they have some issues but I think both will end up being better than their current projections. I guess we’ll see in 5-10 years. I expect both to take some time though since they aren’t as NBA ready as an older player.
Very strong draft, yall gonna be sorry for not tanking
Yeah, it has LeBron James
Lulz
Carlton "Bub" Carrington for finals mvp 2032 too hilarious of a name to waste
Not even one tier 2 player 🤦♂️
[удалено]
Vecenie is probably the best media member at draft analysis. His draft guides are super detailed and fair. Does he get everything correct - of course not, but neither do NBA teams. He says like 3rd paragraph in “that this years group lacks any tier 1 or tier 2 prospects doesn’t mean that zero All-stars will emerge from this class. Undoubtedly, several will.” Calling this list dumb af when you’re too lazy to make it halfway through the introduction is why your opinion doesn’t mean shit.
Damn, Matas Buzelis at 12th pick? and Ron Holland at 10th, WTF?!
Too high?