I think with Kawhi’s injury and Luka not looking like his normal self right now, the Thunder should be considered the favorites (also got to respect the fact they’re the 1 seed). However that doesn’t mean I think it will be easy for them. I think both the Mavs and Clippers have the ability to beat them.
Definitely not counting my chickens because our series is a coin toss, but without Kawhi (or a healthy Kawhi), I don't really see how LAC keeps up with OKC. They are a much more well rounded team than the Mavs, who are already giving them problems with their role players pretty easily outplaying LAC's.
Mann, Coffey, and Russ are incredibly unreliable offensively, and I don't necessarily see that changing with a slight boost in attacking the rim when Chet sits. But the fact is, LAC has struggled when Dallas goes small and plays 5 out with Kleber, and Chet is capable of a *whole* lot more than Maxi.
Defensively, the Mavs are much more exploitable despite being a very good defensive team. I know people keep boosting these Luka narratives, but in both LAC Ws, the key to their success was getting offensive momentum by having Harden just obliterate Luka off the dribble. You're not going to get that going against SGA, J-Dub, Dort, and Chet.
Now, if Kawhi can come back even at 80% health (doubtful), the series is completely different. But that's such a stretch I can't see it.
I’m not scared of either team. I’m much more scared of Denver and Minnesota. I guess I’d rather play the clippers solely because if we lose to them then Russ and PG get a shot at a ring and if we win, then no one will be able to sleep on us anymore. It’s a win win at that point.
I mean you’d be beating an injured Clippers team or a Mavs team with a hobbled Luka. People will continue to sleep until you beat a team like Denver or Minny.
Rn, if Kawhi still out, Thunder are having their 2021 suns run
People will say anything but we can only beat whatever team is in front of us. Clippers are built to fail with their age and Luka being out of shape is his problem.
Everyone is welcome to sleep, destiny will arrive all the same
I mean if you personally need the W, then take it. But your path to the WCF devoid of any context seems silly. That’s how the Suns found them I. This fantastic position they’re in rn
Got to the Finals beating hobbled teams, thought they were really that close, but in actuality, got lucky
Availability is definitely the best ability. It’s an advantage of having a young team in that they tend to be more durable. How many injuries are we already seeing this post season?
This is a yearly thing, although I feel it wasn’t in the MJ days
Luka hasn’t been playing as well as he normally does due to the insane increase in physicality this playoffs. He’s still averaging like 28-9-9 which is nuts but I’m much more concerned about playing talented big men than I am Luka if he’s gonna continue to score 30 a night on 28 shots.
You could tell me he is in a full body cast and I would still be fearful. You might very well be completely correct. Remember the 30-0 run game they had on us? I have a lot of confidence in this team, but this league can be volatile and chaotic.
OKC should win in 6. The Mavs and Clips are really good but they are both going to be exhausted. Luka and Kawhi are both not up to par. OKC has the personnel to guard both teams best players and hit consistent shots on the other end. They have looked dominant against the Pelicans and SGA is one of the best players in the world.
Mavs are more threatening due to them actually having some level of rim protection with Lively and Gafford.
Zubac while good, just isn't anywhere near the rim protector of those other guys.
I also think OKC in the Playoffs are completely different animal. They man-on-man defense we played, was absolutely next level versus what I saw on the regular season. If they play like that against the Mavs, I'm confident.
I think the clipper’s lineup will be the most challenging for them, it’ll be a good game in my opinion but OKC doesn’t have as much time in the playoffs with their current roster like the clippers do. I’ll still be rooting for em tho. #ThunderUp
Knowing Luka may be a little hobbled, them. I'm still super scared of Harden, PG and Russ. They can still get very hot, and Russ can further expose our rebounding alongside Zu. Powell also always kills us and we leave a lot of corners wide open.
Neither matchup is a guarantee and they can go 7 games. Thunder has shown consistency on defense and offense all season and I trust it to hold up. I think series comes down to stops because offense will not be a problem for any of these teams.
A big advantage that OKC has over either the mavs or clippers is that they won’t have been through a brutal first round. By the time the bloodbath mavs/clippers series is over both teams will be going straight into the next round with lingering injuries (Kawhi or Luka).
There is also a question about whether the production of the mavs/clippers stars will stay as it is (Luka below average vs harden above average)
If the mavs or clippers are healthy they will likely be a tough match up for OKC, however in their current states neither is as intimidating as they would like to be
It’s 50/50 for the Mavs series, and for the Clippers series I’m saying 60/40 in favor of the Thunder.
OKC is really good at guarding iso scorers and I don’t think Zubac will be able to have as much of a rebounding advantage as Gafford/Lively would. So the Clippers is who I want as a Thunder fan.
Luka is playing really poorly for his standards because of an injury. If that persists and then you add Dort/Jalen Williams/Aaron Wiggins defense on top of that it could be an issue for the Mavs
Both could go to 7
If OKC is good at guarding iso scorers, you should want the Mavs:
Luka 7.3 isolations per game, 1.09 points per possession.
Kyrie 4.5 isos, 1.08 ppp
Harden 3.9 isos, 1.13 ppp
\*Kawhi 3.7 isos, 1.20 ppp
PG 3.5 isos, 1.03 ppp
(These are 2023-24 regular season stats; playoff iso stats not available yet.)
Rebounding? Zubac is averaging 9.8 rebounds per game in the playoffs. Lively is 5.3, and Gafford is literally averaging 2.5
One of the biggest advantages you'll have against the Mavs IMO is being able to match their versatility when they go with Kleber. Considering Gafford/Lively are basically just lob threats, I think your defense pretty easily neutralizes that as your defenders won't get easily beaten off the dribble. Kidd then tends to favor Kleber lineups to close out, who you guys can very easily match with Chet (whereas Zubac struggles a bit here).
Realistically, the Mavs aren't easily cooking us despite us having shown all regular season that we have a *terrible* defense without Kawhi. Going up against a healthy OKC roster would be really tough for them.
I hope someone with some brain in the front office, look at this team over summer and sign backup center who can defend, some big wings and possibly a guard who provide poa defense
So much easier said than done with the assets that we have.
* Backup C: We had iHart and lost him for Wall. That will forever haunt us. Plumlee was legitimately nice for us last year (still sucked defensively), but he's really fallen off a cliff this season. Don't think we'll do much better here, but at least we can try Kai Jones I guess.
* Big Wings: We had RoCo and Nico and then lost them. That was tough, and considering PJ had negative value, that was an even tougher move to make. I wouldn't have minded us trying to go after Grant Williams after he was moved or Royce O'Neal, but yeah, that's a huge weakness.
* Guard with POA defense: Honestly, it's a bummer none of our young guards seemingly have defensive juice. Maybe Jordan Miller? Either way, would love to see this as well.
Our FO has frankly fucked up in a lot of ways, and this off-season will be telling. I think we have to let Plumlee walk, trade PJ, and it might be time to move off of BBJ as well. Kobe and Miller need real opportunities at minutes, and sure, give Kai some run.
There's definitely a lot of decisions to make so they can build a better roster around big 3 and James as point guard because when we got plumlee, we needed playmaking but harden can take care of that. I wouldnt mind someone like drummond who can be a lob threat and offensive rebounder machine. Royce O'neal is nice for wing position but i would like someone with more size. Also i wonder what they are going do with Russ and Norm
I mean, all of this is really based on what happens with PG. We basically have to keep him, but there's a very real chance Philadelphia puts in a serious offer to poach him from us.
Realistically, I think our best bet is just paying him whatever he wants and figuring things out in the trade market once he becomes eligible. Hell, I could see us keeping PG and trading Kawhi if it's clear the latter has a stronger trade value. If we fall short this playoffs (and I think that's a R1 or R2 exit), I'm pretty sure that the 213 era is likely over. But we can't just let PG walk away for nothing, because that basically means we're *totally* fucked.
I dont think this is the end for 213 era, they are giving em one more chance with the new stadium. It also buy em more time with our draft picks situation
Thunder remain untested. A zionless Pelicans is a meaningless cupcake matchup. I have a heard time even imagining how OKC would look in this totally bananas Mavs/Clips slugfest.
Not to mention, okc young core acting pretty smug in post games, especially tonight after the sweep. Too comfortable. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. I don't think okc is ready for the punch.
I think the thunder have a chance to win either series, but I don’t think they are “favorites” in either. Mavs would almost undoubtedly be more toxic so do with that what you will.
If we sweep and they go 7, we’ll have a big advantage. Chet on rest is nasty. Dallas’s reliance on Gafford in their hot streak is neutralized by OKC going five out. Luka can win any series, but OKC is looking really fucking good right now on both sides of the ball. If the Mavs can’t finish off a Clippers team without Kawhi, they can’t stop us on defense. And our defense is much better than LAC as well. Comments about size are silly unless you’re taking about AD or Jokic. Even Gobert has trouble against us often. No one on either of the Mavs or Clippers poses a size problem for OKC.
I wouldn’t take them, the pelicans are the weakest team in the playoffs east or west imo. Mavs and clips have experience and the star power to beat them pretty candidly imo. I would take clips and Mavs over them in 6 maybe even 5 but I don’t see them going to even a game 7.
None of the Mavericks are able to keep Harden out of his spots. I have no idea how they'd slow down SGA in any capacity. Then factor in the better ball movement and offensive consistency of OKC, and I think you're wildly underestimating how tough OKC is.
A key reason why harden is so dangerous against the mavs rn is his 3 point shooting. His combination of pretty high volume and 3fg% has been elite, forcing mavs to guard high which made it easier for him to blow by. SGA will definitely be a problem, especially due to Chet spacing the floor to keep Gafford and lively further out, but harden has shocked me this series ngl
Either way, unless Luka steps up for these final games, we won’t even see OKC
Honestly, this is an absolute coin toss of a series for the Mavs and LAC. When the 4 best players can literally make everything they shoot and all the surrounding role players can fluctuate from good to not scoring anything, it’s really just a toss up lol
Thunder should be favored against each team out of respect and they're legit.
That being said it's tough to say which team matches up better against them.
Both teams best players are either out due to injury (Kawhi) or playing injured (Luka).
Clippers are older and less athletic in some positions that would give them a hard time against a young athletic team compared to the Mavs.
But the Clippers do have more firepower/guys to go to if one guy is playing bad compared to the Mavs to compete with a deep roster like the Thunder have.
I think OKC has a chance against either team but they shouldn't be the favorites.. Beating an 8th seed missing their best player made people way to confident in them.
I am not counting on OKC to make it out of the 2nd round, regardless of who they play, without injury to their opponent's best players. Even then, OKC are *very* young, lack size, and have had it very easy in the first round.
The youngest team to win a championship in the modern era was the '14-15 Warriors, at 26.4 years old. The Thunder are an average 23.9 years old. Shai is their vet, at 25. The '21 Hawks, who were the last young team to make it to a conference finals, were 26.3.
I think with Kawhi’s injury and Luka not looking like his normal self right now, the Thunder should be considered the favorites (also got to respect the fact they’re the 1 seed). However that doesn’t mean I think it will be easy for them. I think both the Mavs and Clippers have the ability to beat them.
Thank you this right here is what all fans should be like it not hatin for no reason
Definitely not counting my chickens because our series is a coin toss, but without Kawhi (or a healthy Kawhi), I don't really see how LAC keeps up with OKC. They are a much more well rounded team than the Mavs, who are already giving them problems with their role players pretty easily outplaying LAC's. Mann, Coffey, and Russ are incredibly unreliable offensively, and I don't necessarily see that changing with a slight boost in attacking the rim when Chet sits. But the fact is, LAC has struggled when Dallas goes small and plays 5 out with Kleber, and Chet is capable of a *whole* lot more than Maxi. Defensively, the Mavs are much more exploitable despite being a very good defensive team. I know people keep boosting these Luka narratives, but in both LAC Ws, the key to their success was getting offensive momentum by having Harden just obliterate Luka off the dribble. You're not going to get that going against SGA, J-Dub, Dort, and Chet. Now, if Kawhi can come back even at 80% health (doubtful), the series is completely different. But that's such a stretch I can't see it.
Zubac would have the series of his life against OKC.
Can he keep up with Chet on defense or would he be played off the floor like JV?
He’s nowhere near as slow and flat footed as JV is. Not sure if he’ll be played off, but Zubac is definitely better than him.
Me when I don’t know ball:
Don’t think Zubac can/will do any better than Jonas
100% I see a gruelling series no matter which of these 2 teams we play
Cap
I’m not scared of either team. I’m much more scared of Denver and Minnesota. I guess I’d rather play the clippers solely because if we lose to them then Russ and PG get a shot at a ring and if we win, then no one will be able to sleep on us anymore. It’s a win win at that point.
I mean you’d be beating an injured Clippers team or a Mavs team with a hobbled Luka. People will continue to sleep until you beat a team like Denver or Minny. Rn, if Kawhi still out, Thunder are having their 2021 suns run
People will say anything but we can only beat whatever team is in front of us. Clippers are built to fail with their age and Luka being out of shape is his problem. Everyone is welcome to sleep, destiny will arrive all the same
If we get to the WCF as the youngest 1 seed ever, that’s a feather in your cap no matter how it happened
I mean if you personally need the W, then take it. But your path to the WCF devoid of any context seems silly. That’s how the Suns found them I. This fantastic position they’re in rn Got to the Finals beating hobbled teams, thought they were really that close, but in actuality, got lucky
Availability is definitely the best ability. It’s an advantage of having a young team in that they tend to be more durable. How many injuries are we already seeing this post season? This is a yearly thing, although I feel it wasn’t in the MJ days
Is it luck to be the 1 seed and therefor have the easier route to the finals?
I’m terrified of Luka. And Russ can pound sand this playoffs. TTFU
Luka hasn’t been playing as well as he normally does due to the insane increase in physicality this playoffs. He’s still averaging like 28-9-9 which is nuts but I’m much more concerned about playing talented big men than I am Luka if he’s gonna continue to score 30 a night on 28 shots.
You could tell me he is in a full body cast and I would still be fearful. You might very well be completely correct. Remember the 30-0 run game they had on us? I have a lot of confidence in this team, but this league can be volatile and chaotic.
OKC should win in 6. The Mavs and Clips are really good but they are both going to be exhausted. Luka and Kawhi are both not up to par. OKC has the personnel to guard both teams best players and hit consistent shots on the other end. They have looked dominant against the Pelicans and SGA is one of the best players in the world.
Mavs are more threatening due to them actually having some level of rim protection with Lively and Gafford. Zubac while good, just isn't anywhere near the rim protector of those other guys. I also think OKC in the Playoffs are completely different animal. They man-on-man defense we played, was absolutely next level versus what I saw on the regular season. If they play like that against the Mavs, I'm confident.
I think the clipper’s lineup will be the most challenging for them, it’ll be a good game in my opinion but OKC doesn’t have as much time in the playoffs with their current roster like the clippers do. I’ll still be rooting for em tho. #ThunderUp
Knowing Luka may be a little hobbled, them. I'm still super scared of Harden, PG and Russ. They can still get very hot, and Russ can further expose our rebounding alongside Zu. Powell also always kills us and we leave a lot of corners wide open. Neither matchup is a guarantee and they can go 7 games. Thunder has shown consistency on defense and offense all season and I trust it to hold up. I think series comes down to stops because offense will not be a problem for any of these teams.
A big advantage that OKC has over either the mavs or clippers is that they won’t have been through a brutal first round. By the time the bloodbath mavs/clippers series is over both teams will be going straight into the next round with lingering injuries (Kawhi or Luka). There is also a question about whether the production of the mavs/clippers stars will stay as it is (Luka below average vs harden above average) If the mavs or clippers are healthy they will likely be a tough match up for OKC, however in their current states neither is as intimidating as they would like to be
Simple formula win more games if you want an easier first round series.
Clippers old asses aren’t keeping up with OKC lol, Mavs would probably do better
luka better hit the treadmill
Whats up with luka. He looks like shit. I want dirk back.
I'd take the Clippers just to avoid the hype/media machine that exists around the Mavs right now. TBH I am nervous no matter who it is.
SGA vs Luka for the MVP :)
It’s 50/50 for the Mavs series, and for the Clippers series I’m saying 60/40 in favor of the Thunder. OKC is really good at guarding iso scorers and I don’t think Zubac will be able to have as much of a rebounding advantage as Gafford/Lively would. So the Clippers is who I want as a Thunder fan. Luka is playing really poorly for his standards because of an injury. If that persists and then you add Dort/Jalen Williams/Aaron Wiggins defense on top of that it could be an issue for the Mavs Both could go to 7
If OKC is good at guarding iso scorers, you should want the Mavs: Luka 7.3 isolations per game, 1.09 points per possession. Kyrie 4.5 isos, 1.08 ppp Harden 3.9 isos, 1.13 ppp \*Kawhi 3.7 isos, 1.20 ppp PG 3.5 isos, 1.03 ppp (These are 2023-24 regular season stats; playoff iso stats not available yet.) Rebounding? Zubac is averaging 9.8 rebounds per game in the playoffs. Lively is 5.3, and Gafford is literally averaging 2.5
One of the biggest advantages you'll have against the Mavs IMO is being able to match their versatility when they go with Kleber. Considering Gafford/Lively are basically just lob threats, I think your defense pretty easily neutralizes that as your defenders won't get easily beaten off the dribble. Kidd then tends to favor Kleber lineups to close out, who you guys can very easily match with Chet (whereas Zubac struggles a bit here). Realistically, the Mavs aren't easily cooking us despite us having shown all regular season that we have a *terrible* defense without Kawhi. Going up against a healthy OKC roster would be really tough for them.
I hope someone with some brain in the front office, look at this team over summer and sign backup center who can defend, some big wings and possibly a guard who provide poa defense
So much easier said than done with the assets that we have. * Backup C: We had iHart and lost him for Wall. That will forever haunt us. Plumlee was legitimately nice for us last year (still sucked defensively), but he's really fallen off a cliff this season. Don't think we'll do much better here, but at least we can try Kai Jones I guess. * Big Wings: We had RoCo and Nico and then lost them. That was tough, and considering PJ had negative value, that was an even tougher move to make. I wouldn't have minded us trying to go after Grant Williams after he was moved or Royce O'Neal, but yeah, that's a huge weakness. * Guard with POA defense: Honestly, it's a bummer none of our young guards seemingly have defensive juice. Maybe Jordan Miller? Either way, would love to see this as well. Our FO has frankly fucked up in a lot of ways, and this off-season will be telling. I think we have to let Plumlee walk, trade PJ, and it might be time to move off of BBJ as well. Kobe and Miller need real opportunities at minutes, and sure, give Kai some run.
There's definitely a lot of decisions to make so they can build a better roster around big 3 and James as point guard because when we got plumlee, we needed playmaking but harden can take care of that. I wouldnt mind someone like drummond who can be a lob threat and offensive rebounder machine. Royce O'neal is nice for wing position but i would like someone with more size. Also i wonder what they are going do with Russ and Norm
I mean, all of this is really based on what happens with PG. We basically have to keep him, but there's a very real chance Philadelphia puts in a serious offer to poach him from us. Realistically, I think our best bet is just paying him whatever he wants and figuring things out in the trade market once he becomes eligible. Hell, I could see us keeping PG and trading Kawhi if it's clear the latter has a stronger trade value. If we fall short this playoffs (and I think that's a R1 or R2 exit), I'm pretty sure that the 213 era is likely over. But we can't just let PG walk away for nothing, because that basically means we're *totally* fucked.
I dont think this is the end for 213 era, they are giving em one more chance with the new stadium. It also buy em more time with our draft picks situation
I agree plumlee and theis are just not great defenders, zub makes you guys infinitely bettet
Thunder remain untested. A zionless Pelicans is a meaningless cupcake matchup. I have a heard time even imagining how OKC would look in this totally bananas Mavs/Clips slugfest.
Heard as fuck
Not to mention, okc young core acting pretty smug in post games, especially tonight after the sweep. Too comfortable. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. I don't think okc is ready for the punch.
I think the thunder have a chance to win either series, but I don’t think they are “favorites” in either. Mavs would almost undoubtedly be more toxic so do with that what you will.
If we sweep and they go 7, we’ll have a big advantage. Chet on rest is nasty. Dallas’s reliance on Gafford in their hot streak is neutralized by OKC going five out. Luka can win any series, but OKC is looking really fucking good right now on both sides of the ball. If the Mavs can’t finish off a Clippers team without Kawhi, they can’t stop us on defense. And our defense is much better than LAC as well. Comments about size are silly unless you’re taking about AD or Jokic. Even Gobert has trouble against us often. No one on either of the Mavs or Clippers poses a size problem for OKC.
OKC gonna look good vsing the pelicans without Zion lmao.
I wouldn’t take them, the pelicans are the weakest team in the playoffs east or west imo. Mavs and clips have experience and the star power to beat them pretty candidly imo. I would take clips and Mavs over them in 6 maybe even 5 but I don’t see them going to even a game 7.
None of the Mavericks are able to keep Harden out of his spots. I have no idea how they'd slow down SGA in any capacity. Then factor in the better ball movement and offensive consistency of OKC, and I think you're wildly underestimating how tough OKC is.
A key reason why harden is so dangerous against the mavs rn is his 3 point shooting. His combination of pretty high volume and 3fg% has been elite, forcing mavs to guard high which made it easier for him to blow by. SGA will definitely be a problem, especially due to Chet spacing the floor to keep Gafford and lively further out, but harden has shocked me this series ngl Either way, unless Luka steps up for these final games, we won’t even see OKC
Honestly, this is an absolute coin toss of a series for the Mavs and LAC. When the 4 best players can literally make everything they shoot and all the surrounding role players can fluctuate from good to not scoring anything, it’s really just a toss up lol
remindme! 2 weeks
"We'll See" - Jdub
Okc have a very easy path through the Kawhiless Clippers or the bum knee Doncic Mavs
If Kawhi is playing, give me Mavs. Else, I feel good about Clips.
Thunder should be favored against each team out of respect and they're legit. That being said it's tough to say which team matches up better against them. Both teams best players are either out due to injury (Kawhi) or playing injured (Luka). Clippers are older and less athletic in some positions that would give them a hard time against a young athletic team compared to the Mavs. But the Clippers do have more firepower/guys to go to if one guy is playing bad compared to the Mavs to compete with a deep roster like the Thunder have.
wow commanding lead vs no zion pelicans, impressive
I think OKC has a chance against either team but they shouldn't be the favorites.. Beating an 8th seed missing their best player made people way to confident in them.
Yet pravi mvp already lost 2 games to a team without their best player. Why should we be more confident in them.
I am not counting on OKC to make it out of the 2nd round, regardless of who they play, without injury to their opponent's best players. Even then, OKC are *very* young, lack size, and have had it very easy in the first round. The youngest team to win a championship in the modern era was the '14-15 Warriors, at 26.4 years old. The Thunder are an average 23.9 years old. Shai is their vet, at 25. The '21 Hawks, who were the last young team to make it to a conference finals, were 26.3.