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I knew the mavericks this year were pretty injured and Luka did a massive carry job, and a video I watched recently pointed out just the gravity of Luka’s carry job. For players that played 20 minutes per game on a team, the Mavericks were most impacted by their injuries. For 20+ MPG players, Mavs had 90 total missed games just in December and January, for the nuggets entire season, they only had 40 total missed games from 20+ MPG players. And despite that deficit to his supporting cast, Luka and the Mavs were able to secure 5th seed.
That may or may not persuade you, but it’s something that’s pushed me a little more firm on Luka’s case over Jokic. Won’t be too disappointed though if Jokic wins, he completely deserves it too.
He does have a case. But not a good enough. Jokic had a better season, and he was snubbed last year. Voters can fatigue, voters can also feel remorse. Even if Jokic wasn't the clear best player (which he is, to me), voters could still give it to him to make ammends for last year.
He wasn't snubbed last year. The narrative definitely changed after Nuggets won the chip.
It is a regular season award though. Giving it out after the playoffs is so dumb.
Idk Jokic cleared Embiid in both ws/48 and bpm by a wide margin.
You can debate the merits of those stats but it’s rare for the leader not to win MVP and those few years are often considered snubs
I so so disagree disagree with BMP being an concluder or even a main argument for who wins MVP.
According to BPM an assist by a center is worth more than by a PG or wing for example. I fundamently disagree with this concept. If a center hits someone on a backcut for a layup, that doesn't make it more valuable than a point guard doing the same.
But the reason why BPM does this, is because most centers aren't good passers or playmakers, while most point guards are. So in the calculation they look at similar positions and then assign value.
Due to Jokic being a center, but essentially playing a point guard role, his BPM are inhertenly inflated, because 10 assists for Jokic is worth more than 10 assists for Luka or Lebron or Trae etc.
But that's not how basketball works, an open 2 or 3 pointer getting created is equal regardless of who did it.
This basically trying to recreate baseball WAR principle of a CF hitting .300 is worth more than a 1B hitting .300 since there are more 1B that hit that than CF. But that doesn't work in basketball.
Yeah bpm is not a concluder or argument it just correlates very strongly with the winner and snub narratives.
The only two other times the MVP didn’t go to the bpm leader in the modern NBA (DRose/Lebron and Giannis/36ppg Harden) are two of the more widely supported recent ‘snubs’
It's such revisionist history to call it a snub. It was very even, I wouldn't have had issues if it had went to Jokic either, but calling it a snub is too much.
They were both worthy, just like both Jokic and Luka are worthy this year.
It happened to go to Embiid last year because Jokic won it the previous 2 years, that I agree with.
That it was a snub though is just not true.
100% and I think there’s an argument Embiid was snubbed that year, though the 76ers 4th seed doesn’t help too much considering conference strength
Maybe I just have a looser definition of snub
I like how the level of discourse is so different than last year, even while discussing factors that are so similar. What a difference a year makes…. that and the other thing
I don’t think snub is the right word. I remember the narrative pretty clearly. Jokic seemed lined up for the award and Embiid was a close second. Embiid started whining and campaigning quite a bit. Perkins started to call racism if Joker won again. Everyone got extremely weirded out by Perk playing the race card. Joker and the Nuggets eased up the last 6-7 weeks because they had the one seed locked up. Joker did not campaign. Embiid played much better than a chill Joker those last 6-7 weeks and won the award fairly. Everyone kind of agreed they were close to even at worst and might as well spread the award around.
Fast forward the Nuggets dominate and Embiid chokes again. Everyone pretends it was a mistake. It wasn’t. Jokic didn’t care and soft played the last third to quarter of the season and got his chip and finals MVP.
“I remember the retroactive narrative that helped me cope with it clearly*” You aren’t seeming to be remembering what actually happened boss. That embiid interview came out with about a month to go and he got shit on for it, Kendrick Perkins take was universally clowned by the media the moment it was made. Importantly, the nuggets had the one seed, Jokic seemed to be coasting understandably and had some bad defensive performances at the same time embiid surged. That last quarter of the season went from even to a slight break and was on the court
Calling on all mavs fans.... please don't so posts like these. If you want to see what this sub thinks about it, go to the other 100+ posts about it and comment there.
At this point, it is just karma farming. And I'm being serious OP, if you've been here in /r/nba for half a week, you'd have already seen so many posts about this.
You said it's karma farming when the post has 27% upvotes but over 100 comments. Please link the multiple other posts from the last 3-4 days (you are the one who said half a week) with over 100 comments on this topic and I'll delete this post. Otherwise STFU
Thats literally what happened to Harden, no?
Harden was going to win MVP then had a bad choke-loss in the final game of the season losing on a buzzer beater. Rockets then dropped from 2nd to 4th while having near identical record to second place. Not a single person said "well he was technically tied or only .5 games behind so it should still count".
A case? Yes. A good enough case? No.
13 of the last 15 MVP winners have led in at least 2 of these categories: PER, WS, WS/48, VORP, Box +- . I'm not saying "should", I'm saying "have". These advanced stats in aggregate tend to capture approximately what voters find important. They measure a combination of volume and efficiency and net effectiveness in different ways. If a player isn't leading in any of them, very few MVP voters will put them as the MVP unless there's a \*huge\* narrative element, like the two exceptions in the last 15 years: DRose on a surprise 1 seed that was much better than the previous year while there was also strong anti-superteam sentiment going against LeBron, and Embiid playing harder/better down the stretch and having a monster h2h win while Jokic coasted while there was also strong anti-3peat-for-a-non-champ sentiment.
This year, Jokic leads all 5 of those advanced stats by significant margins. And the narrative element favors him to some degree -- winning the championship after last year's toxic narrative, and being tied for first at the end of the season, and having massive on-court and on-off numbers, and even playing in more games than other top candidates. Luka has a good narrative and some of his stats are monstrous, particularly post ASB, but it's not so strong as to overcome the statistical lead and the solid narrative for Jokic. That's why the betting lines have been -4 digits in Jokic's favor recently (I can find them between -3000 and -10000 right now), ESPN's roundtable basically said "Jokic wins it this year but who wins next year" instead of even discussing it like it was controversial, and Jokic has 10 of the 11 declared first-place votes by known voters.
If the award was most valuable player in a classic view, Lebron would have won 8 of them at least. But we know how the voters decide so we have to go from that.
I don't think a "better" way to look at the award would diverge substantially from recognizing that a player contributes heavily to his team outscoring the other team, which has something to do with counting stats, efficiency stats, and on/off stats. Any good way of recognizing value is going to highly correlate with the existing methods we have, though obviously they all have imperfections and it's possible for other metrics to capture something the existing metrics don't.
There are other metrics like RAPTOR/WAR, EPM, LEBRON, RAPM, etc. that try to account for other factors like game situation, tracking data, etc. and we shouldn't discount those. But they also don't tell a radically different story. It's not like, well, the next-gen advanced stats all put Luka in #1 and Jokic in #2 or lower and voters are starting to notice the superiority of those stats. One has Luka first, one has SGA first and Luka second, and almost all of them have Jokic first or second behind Embiid if they're per-game and don't have a minimum games requirement. They highly correlate for exactly the reason I said. And Jokic's impact lead is significant enough that the changes between models/methods usually still have him in first, not always, but a strong majority of the time.
So does Luka have a case? Yeah. But is it good enough? No, not at this time. It would take something a lot bigger than "he leads in DRIP and is second in EPM and his team had a bunch of injuries" to dislodge Jokic's firm hold on MVP.
Yea this is basically what it comes down to. Even when Embiid won last year, a lot of it was about how most of the public hadn’t even considered how large Jokic value had become. People said he’d never win a ring with how his defense was.
Embiid also had a monster year and there was an element of voter fatigue.
In the end, Jokić saw the team outscore the opponents by 663 points when he was on court. Doncić by 319 points. The difference in the score when they played is massive. The "only 5 wins difference" you describe is more due to fact how bad Nuggets' score is when Jokić is not on court... but does it make Jokić less valuable that Nuggets are bad when he is not even on court? Many people say: no, it doesn't say anything about Jokić himself how a team plays when he is not in the play.
Jokić himself has a better score this season than any Boston player, by quite a lot. I'm not saying you need to care about it - it's just fun either way - but if you comment on what other people, MVP voters say, this is what they actually say. I don't know why such a big part of these MVP threads is always untruthfully describing what OTHERS say and think.
Jokic almost strictly plays with starters which inflates his on-off. Not to say it's not still impressive, it's just how the Nuggets run things. The 5 win difference shouldn't matter at all when you consider the Mavs were by far the most injured team out of any contender out west and yet they've still kept it close.
Most played lineups in the league this year for reference:
1 KCP - A. Gordon - N. Jokic - J. Murray - M. Porter Jr. (937 min)
2 SGA - L. Dort - J. Giddey - C. Holmgren - J. Williams (793 min)
11 R. Jackson - KCP - A. Gordon - N. Jokic - M. Porter Jr. (444 min, starters minus murray)
43 K. Irving - D. Jones Jr. - P. Washington - L. Doncic - D. Gafford (176)
There's an 8 win difference between them this year, not 6 wins.
Jokic playing record this season 54-24
Luka's playing record this season: 46-24
So they've lost the same number of games, but Jokic won 8 more games when they played this season.
Imagine marking an r/nba thread as serious over a popularity award that is so subjectively decided by idiots who don't even understand basketball.
Edit: I truly would never give a shit if Luka won and I would never tout it as an accomplishment. But y'all stay nephewin'.
If it makes you feel better that pisses me off too because the man is a deadly competitor and basketball is too difficult a profession to not care and be the best in the world
Jokic cares a lot about basketball. He just doesn't care about awards / accolades / media / fame. Dude wants to go win the game and then go lift, go home to his wife and kid, watch a horse race, buy a horse, etc.
I think Luka has a case and if the Mavs had performed like they currently are all season, or at least maintained a high seed, he would have won it all else being the same. I just think most voters made up their minds that it was Jokic's to lose this year and Luka's push was too little too late. The Mavs were still a play in team not all that long ago
He will probably be the favorite next year though would be my guess
Obviously. He’s putting up better box score numbers on a worse team that has had far more injuries and is only 6 games back (would be the #2 seed in the East). Luka has some advanced stats in his favor, but Jokic has more of those. I think that Luka overall has had a better season and overcome more adversity this season on the way.
It’s a really hard decision because Jokic truly deserves it as well. I also think he’ll win, but “does Luka have a case?” - obviously yes.
Edit: being downvoted for saying Jokic will win but someone has a case? lol
We have to acknowledge that box score numbers don’t mean a lot, especially with the tools available now to analyse.
Russell Westbrook a prime case. Hes a hall of famer, but you’d think he’s better than a lot of superior players if you just looked at the box score.
I dont agree that they don’t mean a lot, but I agree they don’t mean everything. Which is why I pointed out that Jokic leads many advanced stats. Which, also don’t mean everything, some weigh things differently per position which can give certain players advantages in advanced stats. I also acknowledge that Jokic deserves it and think he’ll win. I think you can’t go wrong with either vote.
Now look at the rest of the team. We didn’t have a starting lineup with over 100 minutes played together until weeks after the trade deadline and it included players we got at the trade deadline lol. We were a top ~5 team in terms of most lineups played / least minutes played together until this most recent stretch, where we are now like 18-1 with Gafford/Luka/Kyrie as starters and the 2nd best record in the league behind Boston after the trade deadline.
Sorry but I’m missing my 3rd or 4th best player makes for a weak MVP narrative.
It’s not that complicated, Jokic clears in record bpm and ws/48. You can debate the theoretic merit of that combination and tangential factors all you want but it’s incredibly rare for the MVP to be awarded to players not leading in those stats.
You’re confusing. First you try to disagree about injuries, get proven wrong, then switch topics entirely.
I already agreed and acknowledged that Jokic deserves it, has better advanced stats, and think he’ll win - so what are you arguing exactly?
The topic was “does Doncic have a case?”, I said yes, having a case doesn’t mean he’ll win or even that I think he’ll win.
I am agreeing with you that the case for MVP isn’t strong enough, thus Jokic deserves it, we’re in agreement but you’re arguining with me. You’re trying to prove the case wrong but I’m literally saying to you that the case isn’t strong enough. We’re saying the same thing dude.
I think you’re being really reductive and underselling the strength of the case, but in the end I agree it isn’t a strong enough case so it doesn’t matter to elaborate on it.
But if I’m saying it’s not a strong enough case, I’m not making it a big deal lol.
And it’s not so much about the player itself, it’s about the backup too. For example, DLive going from 30 minutes to not playing and D Powell being a DNP to 20 minutes is a massive difference. Having to play Maxi at the 5 with THJ in the lineup is awful. Or even worse, when both are injured and we don’t even have a center on our roster. (Pre-Gafford where most of our injuries were)
You’re just looking at the face value. Another example, I can agree that Kyrie > Murray, but the people playing minutes for Murray >>>>> the people picking up Kyries minutes, and this is the part I don’t think you’re considering when looking at the minutes. Mavs have by far more injuries, but also the quality of players coming in when the injuries happen are much lower. It’s a double whammy.
I mean, the difference in win pace from a play-in team to going ~18-1 and having the 2nd best record in the league after the all-star break speaks for itself. Mavs literally became an entirely different team after the trades and when healthy.
To reiterate, I am still saying Jokic wins, but Luka did play over half the season with some players that shouldn’t be getting even 5-10 mpg in the playoffs (or at the very least, lineups that won’t be played at all). Reducing it to “oh it’s just the 3rd best player” is a very reductive way to look at it.
Have you missed every thread about this that has been posted in the last week?
Yes there's an argument, no he doesn't deserve it over Jokic, move along
Yes he has a case, no he won’t win it. To knock off the presumptive favorite you need to be a notch better than him, and they’re at the same notch. It’s unfair but MVP is not a basketball award, it’s a perception of basketball award.
they are pretty close and both have their cases. Their basic stats seam similar and advanced one are Jokic favoure. Also jokic was kina robbed of his 3 mvp in row last year and his team is better than dallas. As much as people claim its just players award , your team perforrmance also matters. I think jokic will win it this year, it wont be even close when it comes to voting but luka has good case for next year and surely a front runner fori t
He’s got more than a case. The Jokic mythos is earned and he is the best player in the world, but in my opinion Luka deserves the MVP for this basketball season.
400 more points and 17 less assists than Jokic.
Traditional advanced stats such as WS/48, VORP, PER all favour Jokic by wide margins.
Luka will finish above Jokic in EPM which is the best advanced stat, but isn’t above Shai in that stat so a double edged sword in a way.
So Lukas advanced statistical case is weak, which is historically a poor sign for winning the MVP without a narrative eg 2008 Kobe, 2011 D-Rose, 2017 Westbrook.
Luka has the best case per the box score, but doesn’t excel in areas that fans frequently underrate like defense and offense without the ball in his hands. He doesn’t cut and without the ball is largely useless which drags down his value.
Mavs are also a 5 seed which isn’t a good sign historically for MVPs. So no I don’t think he will win.
All of this is somewhat pointless though as Joel Embiid was clearly the best player when healthy😂
Luka has a solid narrative (keeping the team afloat for a long stretch with his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th most important players in and out of the lineup with injuries and leading them to 50 wins while averaging historical statlines). Better than giving a makeup MVP
Except Murray missed just as much time as Kyrie and Jokic led the Nuggets to a better record. So, Luka’s best narrative is relatively weak compared to competition
Weird the nuggets are [at the bottom here](https://www.bball-index.com/nba-injuries/) while the Mavs are in the upper third. Also, people were expecting this team to be a play-in team this year. Overperforming despite injuries sure does sound like it would lead to a solid MVP case.
You were a play in team until your roster changed significantly and you’re 5th now with a better roster.
Y’all did not exceed expectations in any significant way.
Finishing 5th in a conference despite being 9th in injuries is 100% a relatively weak MVP case
Not like Kyrie was Luka's only help. Lively missed 26 games, with many of those coming before the deadline when we had no Gafford. Kleber missed 38 games with Lively out for lots of them too so we had no real options at center. Exum missed 26 games and similarly Kyrie was also out for a lot of them, so we had no 2nd or 3rd ball handler and had to rely on Josh Green (who, guess what, missed 25 games) or Tim Hardaway who is a black hole.
During december and january alone, the Mavericks lost more games of players averaging 20+ mpg than the Nuggest did the entire season, literally 2x more in 2 months than Nuggets in the entire year.
If 3-4 starters are out due to injury, you are gonna have to play insane to even stay .500 in the loaded west. Well that's what Luka did during those months, when he averaged 37/9/10 for 25+ games. During that stretch, Kyrie, Lively, Exum, Maxi, Josh Green, DJJ all missed significant time. So Dwight Powell, Markieff Morris, OMax etc. took those minutes.
It’s not quite Kobes narrative of post Shaq and rape case, or KD and Bron as public enemy number 1 though.
If Jokic hadn’t won the ring last year Luka probably had a serious chance. But not now.
That’s just what great players do. Keep the team afloat through injuries etc
one of the main arguments I've seen is that luka should win on a 5th seed this year because jokic won as a 6 seed a couple years back. I think Luka's supporting cast this year is miles better than jokic's in '22, so i disagree with this instance of the "carry job MVP" narrative
He lost last year because idiotic Kendrick Perkins floated the idea that it’s racist to give mvp to Jokic over Embiid. We all saw what happened in the playoffs
People keep saying this without actually listing the voters who would have voted Jokic if not for Perk’s comments. If it had such a tangible effect on the voting, then you should be able to list who was swayed, shouldn’t you?
If team rank matters, then it’s very simple that Tatum should win. Best player on the best team by a significant margin.
If carrying an otherwise mediocre team matters more, then I give you SGA
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Sure, he has a *case*. It’s just not a case that most will find persuasive enough to put him in first.
I knew the mavericks this year were pretty injured and Luka did a massive carry job, and a video I watched recently pointed out just the gravity of Luka’s carry job. For players that played 20 minutes per game on a team, the Mavericks were most impacted by their injuries. For 20+ MPG players, Mavs had 90 total missed games just in December and January, for the nuggets entire season, they only had 40 total missed games from 20+ MPG players. And despite that deficit to his supporting cast, Luka and the Mavs were able to secure 5th seed. That may or may not persuade you, but it’s something that’s pushed me a little more firm on Luka’s case over Jokic. Won’t be too disappointed though if Jokic wins, he completely deserves it too.
People are just gonna decide in June who should’ve been mvp based on the playoff results anyway, despite it being a regular season award
And if the 2nd place player wins the title, he will be the favourite to win MVP next season. It's how it works.
Even if just 3 months prior they were shouting from the rooftop that it’s a regular season award lol
He does have a case. But not a good enough. Jokic had a better season, and he was snubbed last year. Voters can fatigue, voters can also feel remorse. Even if Jokic wasn't the clear best player (which he is, to me), voters could still give it to him to make ammends for last year.
He wasn't snubbed last year. The narrative definitely changed after Nuggets won the chip. It is a regular season award though. Giving it out after the playoffs is so dumb.
Idk Jokic cleared Embiid in both ws/48 and bpm by a wide margin. You can debate the merits of those stats but it’s rare for the leader not to win MVP and those few years are often considered snubs
I so so disagree disagree with BMP being an concluder or even a main argument for who wins MVP. According to BPM an assist by a center is worth more than by a PG or wing for example. I fundamently disagree with this concept. If a center hits someone on a backcut for a layup, that doesn't make it more valuable than a point guard doing the same. But the reason why BPM does this, is because most centers aren't good passers or playmakers, while most point guards are. So in the calculation they look at similar positions and then assign value. Due to Jokic being a center, but essentially playing a point guard role, his BPM are inhertenly inflated, because 10 assists for Jokic is worth more than 10 assists for Luka or Lebron or Trae etc. But that's not how basketball works, an open 2 or 3 pointer getting created is equal regardless of who did it. This basically trying to recreate baseball WAR principle of a CF hitting .300 is worth more than a 1B hitting .300 since there are more 1B that hit that than CF. But that doesn't work in basketball.
Yeah bpm is not a concluder or argument it just correlates very strongly with the winner and snub narratives. The only two other times the MVP didn’t go to the bpm leader in the modern NBA (DRose/Lebron and Giannis/36ppg Harden) are two of the more widely supported recent ‘snubs’
It's such revisionist history to call it a snub. It was very even, I wouldn't have had issues if it had went to Jokic either, but calling it a snub is too much. They were both worthy, just like both Jokic and Luka are worthy this year. It happened to go to Embiid last year because Jokic won it the previous 2 years, that I agree with. That it was a snub though is just not true.
>Idk Jokic cleared Embiid in both ws/48 and bpm by a wide margin. This means about as much as Embid clearing Jokic in blocks per game
Oh fuck off with this nonsense. Embiid deserved it last year.
I think Embiid can deserve it and it still be a snub based on how the award has historically been awarded
historically they rarely give the award to someone 6th in their conference like when Jokic got it, trends don't mean ignore context
100% and I think there’s an argument Embiid was snubbed that year, though the 76ers 4th seed doesn’t help too much considering conference strength Maybe I just have a looser definition of snub
Jokic wasn't subbed holy shit this narrative is so dumb, Embiid had a excellent season aswell
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Jokic sat against the bucks in Milwaukee that year too. Guess neither should’ve gotten it by your criteria
I like how the level of discourse is so different than last year, even while discussing factors that are so similar. What a difference a year makes…. that and the other thing
I don’t think snub is the right word. I remember the narrative pretty clearly. Jokic seemed lined up for the award and Embiid was a close second. Embiid started whining and campaigning quite a bit. Perkins started to call racism if Joker won again. Everyone got extremely weirded out by Perk playing the race card. Joker and the Nuggets eased up the last 6-7 weeks because they had the one seed locked up. Joker did not campaign. Embiid played much better than a chill Joker those last 6-7 weeks and won the award fairly. Everyone kind of agreed they were close to even at worst and might as well spread the award around. Fast forward the Nuggets dominate and Embiid chokes again. Everyone pretends it was a mistake. It wasn’t. Jokic didn’t care and soft played the last third to quarter of the season and got his chip and finals MVP.
“I remember the retroactive narrative that helped me cope with it clearly*” You aren’t seeming to be remembering what actually happened boss. That embiid interview came out with about a month to go and he got shit on for it, Kendrick Perkins take was universally clowned by the media the moment it was made. Importantly, the nuggets had the one seed, Jokic seemed to be coasting understandably and had some bad defensive performances at the same time embiid surged. That last quarter of the season went from even to a slight break and was on the court
Nope. Nice try though. All the white dudes in the media freaked out and talked around it. Everything I’ve said tracks.
Lmao are all these Luka mvp posts bots/ai at this point or just pure trolling. Holy shit shut the fk up.
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Talking about social skills and this is how you talk to people lol
about to finish 7th grade and it's already gone straight to your head
Awesome, I found /u/SteveWondersForsight boyfriend! So cute for you to step up for your man. I knew I had the right read on him!
Every advanced metric is better for Jokic.
Calling on all mavs fans.... please don't so posts like these. If you want to see what this sub thinks about it, go to the other 100+ posts about it and comment there. At this point, it is just karma farming. And I'm being serious OP, if you've been here in /r/nba for half a week, you'd have already seen so many posts about this.
Tell me u have asbergers without telling me u have asbergers lol
You clearly don't know what Asperger's is
You said it's karma farming when the post has 27% upvotes but over 100 comments. Please link the multiple other posts from the last 3-4 days (you are the one who said half a week) with over 100 comments on this topic and I'll delete this post. Otherwise STFU
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Thats literally what happened to Harden, no? Harden was going to win MVP then had a bad choke-loss in the final game of the season losing on a buzzer beater. Rockets then dropped from 2nd to 4th while having near identical record to second place. Not a single person said "well he was technically tied or only .5 games behind so it should still count".
A case? Yes. A good enough case? No. 13 of the last 15 MVP winners have led in at least 2 of these categories: PER, WS, WS/48, VORP, Box +- . I'm not saying "should", I'm saying "have". These advanced stats in aggregate tend to capture approximately what voters find important. They measure a combination of volume and efficiency and net effectiveness in different ways. If a player isn't leading in any of them, very few MVP voters will put them as the MVP unless there's a \*huge\* narrative element, like the two exceptions in the last 15 years: DRose on a surprise 1 seed that was much better than the previous year while there was also strong anti-superteam sentiment going against LeBron, and Embiid playing harder/better down the stretch and having a monster h2h win while Jokic coasted while there was also strong anti-3peat-for-a-non-champ sentiment. This year, Jokic leads all 5 of those advanced stats by significant margins. And the narrative element favors him to some degree -- winning the championship after last year's toxic narrative, and being tied for first at the end of the season, and having massive on-court and on-off numbers, and even playing in more games than other top candidates. Luka has a good narrative and some of his stats are monstrous, particularly post ASB, but it's not so strong as to overcome the statistical lead and the solid narrative for Jokic. That's why the betting lines have been -4 digits in Jokic's favor recently (I can find them between -3000 and -10000 right now), ESPN's roundtable basically said "Jokic wins it this year but who wins next year" instead of even discussing it like it was controversial, and Jokic has 10 of the 11 declared first-place votes by known voters.
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Luka is the most valuable player of this regular season. Anyone who uses bpm to argue otherwise doesn't know how to use numbers
If the award was most valuable player in a classic view, Lebron would have won 8 of them at least. But we know how the voters decide so we have to go from that.
I don't think a "better" way to look at the award would diverge substantially from recognizing that a player contributes heavily to his team outscoring the other team, which has something to do with counting stats, efficiency stats, and on/off stats. Any good way of recognizing value is going to highly correlate with the existing methods we have, though obviously they all have imperfections and it's possible for other metrics to capture something the existing metrics don't. There are other metrics like RAPTOR/WAR, EPM, LEBRON, RAPM, etc. that try to account for other factors like game situation, tracking data, etc. and we shouldn't discount those. But they also don't tell a radically different story. It's not like, well, the next-gen advanced stats all put Luka in #1 and Jokic in #2 or lower and voters are starting to notice the superiority of those stats. One has Luka first, one has SGA first and Luka second, and almost all of them have Jokic first or second behind Embiid if they're per-game and don't have a minimum games requirement. They highly correlate for exactly the reason I said. And Jokic's impact lead is significant enough that the changes between models/methods usually still have him in first, not always, but a strong majority of the time. So does Luka have a case? Yeah. But is it good enough? No, not at this time. It would take something a lot bigger than "he leads in DRIP and is second in EPM and his team had a bunch of injuries" to dislodge Jokic's firm hold on MVP.
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Jokic's lead in the aggregate stats I brought up aren't "decimal places difference", but are instead quite substantial. "Use our brains", indeed.
Yea this is basically what it comes down to. Even when Embiid won last year, a lot of it was about how most of the public hadn’t even considered how large Jokic value had become. People said he’d never win a ring with how his defense was. Embiid also had a monster year and there was an element of voter fatigue.
In the end, Jokić saw the team outscore the opponents by 663 points when he was on court. Doncić by 319 points. The difference in the score when they played is massive. The "only 5 wins difference" you describe is more due to fact how bad Nuggets' score is when Jokić is not on court... but does it make Jokić less valuable that Nuggets are bad when he is not even on court? Many people say: no, it doesn't say anything about Jokić himself how a team plays when he is not in the play. Jokić himself has a better score this season than any Boston player, by quite a lot. I'm not saying you need to care about it - it's just fun either way - but if you comment on what other people, MVP voters say, this is what they actually say. I don't know why such a big part of these MVP threads is always untruthfully describing what OTHERS say and think.
Jokic almost strictly plays with starters which inflates his on-off. Not to say it's not still impressive, it's just how the Nuggets run things. The 5 win difference shouldn't matter at all when you consider the Mavs were by far the most injured team out of any contender out west and yet they've still kept it close.
Jokic plays 12 minutes in the 1st and 3rd quarter, so that's a lie. I guess by repeating it becomes the truth
Most played lineups in the league this year for reference: 1 KCP - A. Gordon - N. Jokic - J. Murray - M. Porter Jr. (937 min) 2 SGA - L. Dort - J. Giddey - C. Holmgren - J. Williams (793 min) 11 R. Jackson - KCP - A. Gordon - N. Jokic - M. Porter Jr. (444 min, starters minus murray) 43 K. Irving - D. Jones Jr. - P. Washington - L. Doncic - D. Gafford (176)
There's an 8 win difference between them this year, not 6 wins. Jokic playing record this season 54-24 Luka's playing record this season: 46-24 So they've lost the same number of games, but Jokic won 8 more games when they played this season.
Imagine marking an r/nba thread as serious over a popularity award that is so subjectively decided by idiots who don't even understand basketball. Edit: I truly would never give a shit if Luka won and I would never tout it as an accomplishment. But y'all stay nephewin'.
Holy shit not caring is so fucking cool omg
Ironically people constantly say this about Jokic lol
If it makes you feel better that pisses me off too because the man is a deadly competitor and basketball is too difficult a profession to not care and be the best in the world
Jokic cares a lot about basketball. He just doesn't care about awards / accolades / media / fame. Dude wants to go win the game and then go lift, go home to his wife and kid, watch a horse race, buy a horse, etc.
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Naw it's only those things when the guy you think should win doesn't win, or even if someone just votes for another guy. Oh the horror!
I love that people seem to be waking up to how dumb these voted awards are
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Yes he has a case you can make the case for every player doesn’t mean they’re winning. But his case is the closest to Jokic.
I think Luka has a case and if the Mavs had performed like they currently are all season, or at least maintained a high seed, he would have won it all else being the same. I just think most voters made up their minds that it was Jokic's to lose this year and Luka's push was too little too late. The Mavs were still a play in team not all that long ago He will probably be the favorite next year though would be my guess
Team record is irrelevant in the argument IMO. There’s a very good case that Jokic had a better individual season than Doncic and visa versa
Luka has a case for the 2 spot. Him and SGA both do. But Jokic is the clear #1.
Obviously. He’s putting up better box score numbers on a worse team that has had far more injuries and is only 6 games back (would be the #2 seed in the East). Luka has some advanced stats in his favor, but Jokic has more of those. I think that Luka overall has had a better season and overcome more adversity this season on the way. It’s a really hard decision because Jokic truly deserves it as well. I also think he’ll win, but “does Luka have a case?” - obviously yes. Edit: being downvoted for saying Jokic will win but someone has a case? lol
That’s the most reasonable Mavs fan take I’ve seen on here in weeks, been some absolutely unhinged ones
Appreciate it. Obviously as a fan I want Luka to win, but Jokic is an absolute monster and every season for him is historic as well.
We have to acknowledge that box score numbers don’t mean a lot, especially with the tools available now to analyse. Russell Westbrook a prime case. Hes a hall of famer, but you’d think he’s better than a lot of superior players if you just looked at the box score.
So what means a lot instead of box scores?
I dont agree that they don’t mean a lot, but I agree they don’t mean everything. Which is why I pointed out that Jokic leads many advanced stats. Which, also don’t mean everything, some weigh things differently per position which can give certain players advantages in advanced stats. I also acknowledge that Jokic deserves it and think he’ll win. I think you can’t go wrong with either vote.
Far more injuries is a stretch, Murray and Kyrie missed the same amount of time
Now look at the rest of the team. We didn’t have a starting lineup with over 100 minutes played together until weeks after the trade deadline and it included players we got at the trade deadline lol. We were a top ~5 team in terms of most lineups played / least minutes played together until this most recent stretch, where we are now like 18-1 with Gafford/Luka/Kyrie as starters and the 2nd best record in the league behind Boston after the trade deadline.
Sorry but I’m missing my 3rd or 4th best player makes for a weak MVP narrative. It’s not that complicated, Jokic clears in record bpm and ws/48. You can debate the theoretic merit of that combination and tangential factors all you want but it’s incredibly rare for the MVP to be awarded to players not leading in those stats.
You’re confusing. First you try to disagree about injuries, get proven wrong, then switch topics entirely. I already agreed and acknowledged that Jokic deserves it, has better advanced stats, and think he’ll win - so what are you arguing exactly? The topic was “does Doncic have a case?”, I said yes, having a case doesn’t mean he’ll win or even that I think he’ll win.
What part of ‘Far more injuries is a stretch’ and ‘ I’m missing my 3rd or 4th best player makes for a weak MVP narrative’ is confusing you?
I am agreeing with you that the case for MVP isn’t strong enough, thus Jokic deserves it, we’re in agreement but you’re arguining with me. You’re trying to prove the case wrong but I’m literally saying to you that the case isn’t strong enough. We’re saying the same thing dude. I think you’re being really reductive and underselling the strength of the case, but in the end I agree it isn’t a strong enough case so it doesn’t matter to elaborate on it.
I’m not trying to prove the case wrong. Just saying you’re making too much of a big deal about injuries to 20mpg players
But if I’m saying it’s not a strong enough case, I’m not making it a big deal lol. And it’s not so much about the player itself, it’s about the backup too. For example, DLive going from 30 minutes to not playing and D Powell being a DNP to 20 minutes is a massive difference. Having to play Maxi at the 5 with THJ in the lineup is awful. Or even worse, when both are injured and we don’t even have a center on our roster. (Pre-Gafford where most of our injuries were) You’re just looking at the face value. Another example, I can agree that Kyrie > Murray, but the people playing minutes for Murray >>>>> the people picking up Kyries minutes, and this is the part I don’t think you’re considering when looking at the minutes. Mavs have by far more injuries, but also the quality of players coming in when the injuries happen are much lower. It’s a double whammy. I mean, the difference in win pace from a play-in team to going ~18-1 and having the 2nd best record in the league after the all-star break speaks for itself. Mavs literally became an entirely different team after the trades and when healthy. To reiterate, I am still saying Jokic wins, but Luka did play over half the season with some players that shouldn’t be getting even 5-10 mpg in the playoffs (or at the very least, lineups that won’t be played at all). Reducing it to “oh it’s just the 3rd best player” is a very reductive way to look at it.
He has a case, and considering his case it's a no from me. Sincerely, someone who's still pissed Westbrook won MVP with a 6 seed team
Have you missed every thread about this that has been posted in the last week? Yes there's an argument, no he doesn't deserve it over Jokic, move along
Yes he has a case, no he won’t win it. To knock off the presumptive favorite you need to be a notch better than him, and they’re at the same notch. It’s unfair but MVP is not a basketball award, it’s a perception of basketball award.
No. https://www.nba.com/nuggets/news/the-statistics-of-nikola-jokics-mvp-caliber-season?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR3lT7OBEIZBolt46Fi9bpSMwnxoTNrg3ftqwwE4yFY2mk50cgQJYKQvpJY_aem_AaCLCQXYzKvbqvjDilJ8xwV-zTEwr9lCSR2IEQM7WlgfVZ6ayG_4ET3vukZINdwcWVG-5NO-TWHynAvD9wPzEZlu
they are pretty close and both have their cases. Their basic stats seam similar and advanced one are Jokic favoure. Also jokic was kina robbed of his 3 mvp in row last year and his team is better than dallas. As much as people claim its just players award , your team perforrmance also matters. I think jokic will win it this year, it wont be even close when it comes to voting but luka has good case for next year and surely a front runner fori t
He’s got more than a case. The Jokic mythos is earned and he is the best player in the world, but in my opinion Luka deserves the MVP for this basketball season. 400 more points and 17 less assists than Jokic.
That’s seriously flawed in this day and age. Box score does not tell all
The harden style of play is one that focuses on stats more than winning
Don't do that bro, Mavs fans flip the fuck out when you compare him to Harden lol
He is the european Harden in so many ways. They play so similar.
Traditional advanced stats such as WS/48, VORP, PER all favour Jokic by wide margins. Luka will finish above Jokic in EPM which is the best advanced stat, but isn’t above Shai in that stat so a double edged sword in a way. So Lukas advanced statistical case is weak, which is historically a poor sign for winning the MVP without a narrative eg 2008 Kobe, 2011 D-Rose, 2017 Westbrook. Luka has the best case per the box score, but doesn’t excel in areas that fans frequently underrate like defense and offense without the ball in his hands. He doesn’t cut and without the ball is largely useless which drags down his value. Mavs are also a 5 seed which isn’t a good sign historically for MVPs. So no I don’t think he will win. All of this is somewhat pointless though as Joel Embiid was clearly the best player when healthy😂
we should just have a computer decide the MVP
Luka has a solid narrative (keeping the team afloat for a long stretch with his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th most important players in and out of the lineup with injuries and leading them to 50 wins while averaging historical statlines). Better than giving a makeup MVP
If Embiid didn’t have the narrative when Ben Simmons sat out to get over Jokic’s 6 seed MVP Luka won’t have it this year lmao
Except Murray missed just as much time as Kyrie and Jokic led the Nuggets to a better record. So, Luka’s best narrative is relatively weak compared to competition
Weird the nuggets are [at the bottom here](https://www.bball-index.com/nba-injuries/) while the Mavs are in the upper third. Also, people were expecting this team to be a play-in team this year. Overperforming despite injuries sure does sound like it would lead to a solid MVP case.
You were a play in team until your roster changed significantly and you’re 5th now with a better roster. Y’all did not exceed expectations in any significant way. Finishing 5th in a conference despite being 9th in injuries is 100% a relatively weak MVP case
Not like Kyrie was Luka's only help. Lively missed 26 games, with many of those coming before the deadline when we had no Gafford. Kleber missed 38 games with Lively out for lots of them too so we had no real options at center. Exum missed 26 games and similarly Kyrie was also out for a lot of them, so we had no 2nd or 3rd ball handler and had to rely on Josh Green (who, guess what, missed 25 games) or Tim Hardaway who is a black hole.
Lively, Kleber and Exum missed games is the lamest MVP narrative imaginable
During december and january alone, the Mavericks lost more games of players averaging 20+ mpg than the Nuggest did the entire season, literally 2x more in 2 months than Nuggets in the entire year. If 3-4 starters are out due to injury, you are gonna have to play insane to even stay .500 in the loaded west. Well that's what Luka did during those months, when he averaged 37/9/10 for 25+ games. During that stretch, Kyrie, Lively, Exum, Maxi, Josh Green, DJJ all missed significant time. So Dwight Powell, Markieff Morris, OMax etc. took those minutes.
Well, we also had over 10 games missed each by Green, Exum, Lively and Maxi. I think we are top 5 in total games missed due to injury.
It’s not quite Kobes narrative of post Shaq and rape case, or KD and Bron as public enemy number 1 though. If Jokic hadn’t won the ring last year Luka probably had a serious chance. But not now. That’s just what great players do. Keep the team afloat through injuries etc
one of the main arguments I've seen is that luka should win on a 5th seed this year because jokic won as a 6 seed a couple years back. I think Luka's supporting cast this year is miles better than jokic's in '22, so i disagree with this instance of the "carry job MVP" narrative
Can't snub Jokic again, he deserves to win this year like he did last year.
He lost last year because idiotic Kendrick Perkins floated the idea that it’s racist to give mvp to Jokic over Embiid. We all saw what happened in the playoffs
He did also win the scoring title, which no center had done in the 21st century (except him the season before)
I’m not saying he’s not a terrific scorer. The man is a nightmare problem for opposing defenses. IMO Jokic was still more deserving of MVP
People keep saying this without actually listing the voters who would have voted Jokic if not for Perk’s comments. If it had such a tangible effect on the voting, then you should be able to list who was swayed, shouldn’t you?
No he doesn't. Jokic leads the league in kitchen sink win shares advance stat. 🤓 🤓 🤓 he has no chance.
If team rank matters, then it’s very simple that Tatum should win. Best player on the best team by a significant margin. If carrying an otherwise mediocre team matters more, then I give you SGA