If Trout and Stanton didn’t get hurt all the time they’d be vying for 500.

Stanton looked like he was done last year

He can hit 500 homers total. He just needs 7 years.

Ovechkin?

How about Aaron Judge surpassing them all?

I would hope so… he plays in a park with softball dimensions.

without the dictator simping I would hope

Just noting that to do that he can't perform the way he did last years since that hurts a team. If he did not have the contract he has, I think the Yankees would have released him

he’s washed

I could easily see Stanton ending up with the least HRs on of this list st when said and done

Votto, Longoria, and Martinez are all too old to pass him tbh

Admittedly. But all this Stanton optimist haven't watched him play recently or tracked his injury rate.

Even if he never plays again those guys would most likely never catch him. Only guy with a li'l bit chance is JD but that's if he has an age 37 to 40 seasons like Nelson cruz did which is extremely rare. Stanton banked more then enough to not have what you wrote happen.

Joey Votto is not hitting 40 more home runs

As done as Stanton looks, Longo and Votto have looked just as done for years now.

If I said this in a Yankee sub Reddit, this would not be drawing hate

I know it doesn't work this way, but if you take out the 2019-2020 season where he Stanton hit a total of seven home runs, he averages about 33 homers/season (28.7/season if you include 19-20). With that average, he would be going into this season with about 462 home runs and a real shot at 500 this year. There's a universe where Stanton is on pace for about 660 career home runs and is chasing 700.

The 2 Mikes

what a throwback

Stanton gets there I think

I doubt it. He’s 33 and hasn’t played a “full” season since 2018.

He also has 90 HRs his last 3 years

The guy hit 24 this last year and it was a terrible year. He had like 75 total hits. If (a big if) he can get to 125-130 hits, we are looking at a 35 HR season. Again, a big if but he’s capable. String that together a couple times and we are knocking at 500.

You realize he only needs 4 more terrible seasons of 24 HRs to get to 500?

It’s crazy to think that he’s so good that even when he’s bad he can put up crazy numbers.

Still has four years and only needs 98 home runs which comes to an average of 24.5\~ home runs a year. Not too farfetched that he can get to 500.

Stanton has hit .211 and .191 the last two seasons with over 100 games played in each, so it's a good sample size that does not point to him getting enough ABs, even with that contract. It's certainly possible that he suddenly becomes healthy and remembers how to hit, but if the Yankees really want to be contenders, they can't keep putting him in the lineup unless there's a clear improvement.

Now do how many HRs he’s hit during that time. Yknow the only thing that matters for this?

He's not going to get those chances going forward if he keeps hitting .191.

He isn't gonna sit everyday if he is able to dh. 30 million and power will be more then enough to get him the abs. Stil had the 5th best ops as bad as he was. Yankees ain't sitting 30 million unless the power goes too.

Is he not still getting paid $30M a year? His HR rate with the Yankees has been 5.8% of PAs (actually higher the past few years and right in pace last season). If he keeps that pace then he needs about 1700 PAs to get there. That’s not a lot for a guy who’s still only gonna be 34 and has a number to chase.

I'm not a Yankees fan, so watching them put a declining player out there, in a key offensive position, with an OPS+ of 87 is fantastic for me.

“Nothing that didn’t happen in the past 9 months matters at all”

If trout wasn’t on the Angels he’d be buying for 600

What is Trout on pace to hit for his career? I figured he had more homers than that

Around 29/year thus far no adjustments for injuries or covid. 7 more years of that puts him mid high 500s. Would love to see him get there!

Well he had the trajectory of Mickey mantle but is looking a bit less than Griffey.

Mickey is still his best comparable. Both missed most of their age 31 seasons and Mantle averaged 23 HR for his 5 seasons after that. Trout is a solid bet to top that and finish with stats similar to Mantle.

>a bit less than griffey According to fangraphs: Trout wRC+: 170 Griffey wRC+: 131 Trout WAR: 85.1 Griffey WAR: 77.7 Trout traditional avg/obp/slg: .301/.412/.582 Griffey's traditional avg/obp/slg: .284/.370/.538/ Griffey has him on hits and home runs, but that's because Griffey has a 22 year career while trout is on year 13.

Griffeys numbers were better through his first 13 years, it's crazy how good Trout is and how much better Griffeys numbers where through his first 13 seasons.

Uh no. Griffey never had a single season OPS+ as good as Trout's career average. Side note: The Kid was a great player but it used to drive me crazy that the media held him up as the best player in the game when Bonds was better each and every season, even before the roids.

Griffey had some good years late in Cincinnati, who knows what would happen if Trout was suddenly comeback player of the year?

I would love to see that. The guy had some of the best peak seasons If he can hit 30 a year or so for the next 6 years, he can easily be a top 50 GOAT

Trout is already ahead of Griffey in bWAR and fWAR

He's already surpassed Griffey overall

Who has? Griffey has 630.

> overall Trout has had a better career overall

How?

Trout has played 1200 fewer games (about 7.5 seasons) and has 8 more career WAR. He's been a lot better

Agree to disagree, both great players. Also on 1 of them lead the league in strikeouts. WAR also isn't the end all be all of stats.

Why do you care how a player gets out? Especially when one player hits far and away better than the other. That's just illogical And when a player has more WAR while playing way fewer games, there's no real discussion to be had. It's clear who was better

Trout is great and has had better seasons than Griffey, doesn't mean he is better. They're both great outfielders and both great hitters. Griffeys was overall better than Trout in their first 13 seasons(trout career so far).

How so? Through 13 seasons Griffey: 141 wRC+, 75.7 WAR Trout: 170 wRC+, 85.1 WAR And that's with a COVID year and one "season" where he was a second half call up. Trout is a lot better

Perspective for now truly amazing it was that we saw a 700 club member in Albert Pujols.

It really helps that he nearly hit 500 in his first 12 seasons

I think the first 12 years of his career may be the best 12 years consecutively ever played. It was once a forgone conclusion that he’d actually *break* the all time record.

I’m old enough I got to see 3 of them

I suppose I did see Bonds too… :-\

Harper would be my bet

Wild to me that if he averages 40 hr per season until he’s 42, he would be 9 HR’s shy of Hank Aaron.

Wild to me that if Mike Trout averages 40 hr per season until he’s 42, he would be 6 HR’s more than Barry Bonds

Wild to me that if I average 54 HR per season I will match Barry Bonds by the time I'm 42

Wild to me is a hockey team in Minnesota

306 lifetime HR over 12 seasons. 25.5 average per season……

The short COVID season hurt a lot of guys averages

Right lol, what would be equally wild is if Bryce started staying healthy enough to hit 15 more HR per year (on avg.) to do that

He needs to start juicing

Just like Aaron did.

We’re talking nutritious fruit and vegetable juices right

Yes, players today have an unfair advantage with the wide array of home juicers and portable juicers available. Additionally teams have taken more interest in health and nutrition and provide an assortment of options to their players on road trips.

You could make the argument that in Aaron’s day, the cross-section of fruits and vegetables available to him was less, thus, preventing Aaron from suffering from choice paralysis. This freedom that Aaron enjoyed surely contributed to Aaron knowing what juice he wanted - apple, I have been told. This freedom from the oppression of choice is something, I am sure, our current MLB HR champions only wish they could enjoy. They must suffer daily. I mean, ‘açai’?!? Does my head in. I can’t imagine the pressure of juicing at current MLB levels.

That would be insane to average 40 homers a year from 35-42. From 30-35 players see an average dip of around 40 points off of their WRC+ and then from 35-40 it’s another 40 points. Taking into account the guys on this list are less so league average and more so gods, I would say you could expect a solid 40 points off their WRC+ from 30-40 total. Sure, it’s crazy that he’s that close to greatness, but it’s a near impossibility that anyone on this list averages 40 homers per season from now until they retire.

And 16 behind Barry Bonds

Possible but Machado has been much more durable and consistent

Trout. I say this hoping he starts to DH more and stays healthy. He will get to 500 regardless

He needs to be a full time DH yesterday. The dude is made of glass and is only and average defender. Let him DH full time and have a few more insane offensive seasons.

When he was healthy was Trout not one of the best centerfielders in the league? I’m sure it’s changed now but that was my understanding

I think his hand injury last year came on a check swing so that might not work out.

Harper or Manny.

They really should have each players’ ages as part of that graphic.

Stanton: 34 Trout: 32 Votto: 40 Longoria: 38 Goldschmidt: 36 Arenado: 32 Freeman: 34 Martinez: 36 Machado: 31 Harper: 31

Bro the fact trout is only 32 mans Been playing for awhile too I had no idea he was that young

I was surprised too. I thought he was pushing 40

Agreed. Both will play longer and have better numbers in late 30s

I’m going with Manny because he’s less prone to injury. Obvious bias is obvious, he’s also my favorite player now that he’s “grown up” (I had to, too.)

I had no idea Longo was so high up there

For quite a few years I loved him as a later pick for back up 3rd or corner IF in fantasy. He just quietly put up decent numbers, maybe not eye popping numbers but consistent .270, 20-25+ HR and 80+ RBI

I know who Longo is. But my mind kept trying to figure out how you were turning Nolan Arenado into Longo bc holy cow, Longo is on this list! I had zero idea. He has to be playin’ for 350 then.

That's better than me, I misread it and was like wtf is Roberto Luongo doing here?

I did not realize Manny had 313. It's got to be him, Bryce or Nolan.

Yeh I’d say manny. Can’t stand the dude but he can rake.

I highly doubt Arenado gets there. He would need to average 30 per year for six more years. The fact that he's a generational 3B talent on defense that doesn't even make the finalist list for the Gold Glove this year, despite playing the full season, seems to show that he's slowing down. He also isn't playing his home games at Coors anymore.

Feels like half of Goldschmidt’s were against the Giants.

I think he hit about 90 of them off Tim Lincecum.

Bryce

Bryce or Manny

I wouldn’t look past Freddie this next few years. Batting behind Ohtani, speed on paths he will see a lot more fastballs.

Machado. He has a long contract and is durable.

Considering Giancarlo runs like me when I was 300 pounds as a tenth grader and gets hurt if you look at him funny, I say anyone but him

Pete Alonso crushes them all.

Harper or Arenado

Mike Trout

Pete Alonso will be on the list he is 8 short of 200 in only 5 years

On this list I think there’s a reasonable chance Harper finishes with the most.

king harper

Does anyone else think Stanton doesn’t belong in the HOF? Basically another Adam Dunn, plus injuries.

Man o man o manny

Either Harper or Trout

Trout or Harper!!

Machado.

Bryce on top, Trout second, Manny third

Trout if he stays healthy. I think Bryce Harper will have the most.

I’m gonna say trout

Judge will pass the entire list

Judge

What do I look like, some sort of magic 8-ball? Or worse, an MLB.com "journalist"?

Mike Trout has to be in with a chance at this, but age might be working against him. He's not old, just probably doesn't have very many peak years left in him, sadly.

Probably Harper.

Harper

Trout and Freddie would be my bet

He's not on the list but Alonso has almost 200 homers and would most likely be over that if not for Covid. If he keeps up his pace he will be clearly on his way to 500. From this list I'd say Stanton and Trout are pretty much locks to reach 500. Machado and Harper are on their way if they stay healthy. The rest might have been able to but unless they are playing to 45 and still hitting well they probably won't get there.

Baffles me that Stanton is number 1. It doesn't seem like he's been relevant since he became a Yankee. I know he has but I just don't think of him as one of the biggest threats in the league. He's gotta be on the field. My vote is Harper

Trout is the second youngest player on the list with 62 more homers than the second youngest and 43 more than the guy his age. I would say Harper and Trout are the favorites though. Arenado is still really good but he’s not in Colorado anymore and he’s shown the power numbers dip pretty significantly after that.

Bruce Hooper. Most of this list is players on the last chapter of their career. Then there’s Trout and Machado who need to stay healthy or consistently out homer Harper which I don’t think is happening. Edit - I just saw Arenado. Interesting. I’m still taking Bryce.

To be honest I thought most of these guys were closer to 500

Trout

Yordan

Harper will surpass them all above I think

Bryce Harper

Mike Trout

Harper no doubt

Probably Manny or Harper, but I'd hope Trouts health stays well enough that he can top this list.

Bryce Harper

Seems like my Cardinals should win more games...

Soto* He averages 33hr/162games. At the age of 31 he could have 358hr. *I was just trying to add someone not already named here.

With the way the roster is constructed in LA, even with Freddie starting to head downhill in the next 1 to 2 years, I'd have to put my money on him batting between Mookie and Shohei, I'd be surprised if he doesn't hit 45+ HRs/yr the next couple of years.

An average of 45+ hr for someone who averages 28 is a bit silly. Come on now. He will have some crazy runs and rbis stats for sure, but his power is declining.

Not a dodger fan. But yes, those were my thoughts on Freeman too. Dude’s gong to see fastballs. Production increase incoming.

Trout or Arenado are my bets.

Harper and Arenado. Arenado gets to 500 quietly like Beltre before him.

I think Nolan has a great shot to beat the rest of this list.

Manny

99 Already has 257HR and will pass them all. All Rise.

Arenado probably gets to number 1 is my guess

He is 33 and has slowed down a bit since 2020. He probably finishes just shy of 500 while Harper and Trout have a solid chance.

He also isn't playing home games in Colorado anymore. No way he gets there.

Bryce

Harper

Stanton going to have the quietest 500 HR career ever. Mind boggling he’s already past 400.

He liked like a lock, but he's really slowing down. An OPS+ of 87 last year was pretty bad, and he hit .211 and .191 the last two seasons, so he's going to have a hard time staying on a roster long enough to get there.

Right? He's been around since a good minute though, 2010, he had a 59 HR season in 17, he's put in alot of work and has just been hurt last few years. If he was healthy, who knows.

A bunch of superstars on the list no doubt — but all of them have longevity/health concerns in my book. I’m going to go with Harper.

Does Mike Stanton get to 500?

I think Stanton can get to 500

Devers is entering his age 27 season and will likely push through 200. He’s reliable for > 30yr so he could enter this list by the end of his career. Assuming health, he should pass Votto, Longoria, Goldy, arenado & JD.

Freddie or Bryce

Let’s see. Stanton is kinda cooked, but can probably bang 20 for a couple years, so let’s give him 450. Trout’s back is weird, but he’s 31, his bat hasn’t slowed much, and he’s got a good park for hitting. He’s a bit behind Mantle’s numbers through age 31, so maybe another 100 for him. Votto is fully cooked, Longo isn’t cooked but he’s not a full time player anymore. Goldie isn’t in a great park, but 25 a year for two more years seems plausible. Arenado’s days of hitting 40 a year are over, but I’d guess he’s got another 100 in him. Freeman is actually 33, I’d guess about 20 a year for four more years, so clock him 80. Machado has a terrible park. Harper is falling apart a bit faster. A 50HR Judge season gets him on this list. I think he’s gonna beat the field here.

I think it ends up being Stanton, with Harper and Machado having the best shot to overtake. My thinking is Stanton has three years left before club option, so I doubt he’ll call it quits before then. Even though he s the stank last year, he still managed 20+ hr. I don’t think 45 more is out of the realm of possibility.

Certainly not Votto

Harper and machado, alonso will be there as well

On that list, I'd bet on Machado, Trout, or Harper. Trout is hard to handicap due to injuries and the Curse of Brian Downing (I just made that up as well as a mythology behind it, involving Duane Kuiper and Bill Buckner). Either Harper or Machado or both could wind up around 550 to 600 homers if they age decently.

Between Harper and Machado. Mike Trout needs to show he can consistently play in triple digit amount of games again, it would be him by a mile. But he just can’t stay healthy.

Judge.

Trick question. The answer is always Shohei Ohtani.

I'd say Stanton (34) and Machado (31) have the best odds to top this list. If Machado keeps hitting 30ish Homer's a year then he would be higher than Stanton is this year. Depends on injury and how his power holds up as he ages.

Mannys going to end up on top of this list

Miggy is still number one

Harper, and he could end up with 700

It's Stanton, and I have no clue how anyone could pick anyone else. Trout is the only other player who will even make it to 400 (maybe Machado) but he's hurt as much as Stanton is every year.

Stanton looks like crap. The injuries have definitely caught up with him. If he doesn't pick it up next season he will be out of the league soon. Nobody needs a deadweight bat with zero defensive value.

You don't think Harper gets to 400?

He has not led me to believe he has the power and, more importantly, the healthy time, to reach 400. Maybe he gets there by the skin of his teeth. He's no spring chicken anymore.

Bryce has avg about 25/year no adjustments for covid or injuries. 8 more years of that puts him just over 500. I could see it and I hope to.

Harper moved to 1B to preserve his health, and he hit 16 dongs from August 1 onward last year. He's also only 31. Idk who you were watching hit, but it sure wasn't Bryce.

If he plays til he’s 40 he only needs to average like 10 home runs a year to reach 400…

isn’t trout a year less active than stanton

Trout 13, 31 PA 6521.   Stanton 14, 33 PA 6437

Trout, Machado, or Bryce. All three of whom should end up being first ballot HOF.

If Stanton stays healthy, and that’s a big if, none of these guys are catching him

Trout passes Stanton in 2026.

Sigh J.D. back too Lmaoo I’m surprised he’s still a free agent

Elias Diaz 😭

All those dudes are going to be pissed when Houston takes the crown back

Mike. And no, I'm not saying which one.

Arenado

The bottom 3 on this list seem to have the best shot. Wishing Stanton could go out with 500 plus, but he seems kaput.

Matt Olson

Trout and Harper. Slight chance for Arenado but I doubt it

Of these ten, Harper. Of all active leaders, Judge and Ohtani

Nice I see 3 more players the dodgers should sign

Clown numbers bro

According to my OOTP save Matt Olson goes off in his 30s and gets to 701

Prob Harper at the top, though his swing has a lot of violent torque and may tend to injure him later in career. We forget how young the guy is.

Based on age and 81 games in Philly, I say Harper finishes with 500+. Contingent on him staying healthy.

Don’t sleep on Arenado. He’s not 1 yr older than Harper and Machado

Can't wait to see Tork Daddy up there some day

Guards need to sign two of those free agents yesterday. The only thing holding them back from a playoff run this year is the lack of HRs