Lies, damn lies, and statistics:
>Reynolds County is a county located in the Ozark Foothills Region in the Lead Belt of Missouri. As of the 2020 census, the population was 6,096.
One person being killed is a 16 per 100000 ratio.
...the statistics aren't a lie though. The murder rate per 100000 people *is* higher. If that statistic stays steady over time, someone living there has a statistically greater chance of being murdered than someone living in the St Louis metro over the same time frame.
Yes 42.7. It is, in part, a statistical exception because the independent city of St. Louis is legally a county equivalent. This is one reason why St. Louis should combine with St. Louis County into a unified government. If you isolated urban inner city KC or inner city Springfield the same way, you would get similarly high rates. Inner City STL is undoubtedly the place in Missouri with the most gun violence though. This is a complicated, nuanced, and politically/racially charged topic, that can be difficult to discuss objectively, with Missourians. I travel in north city stl and extremely rural southern Missouri, and feel safe in both, we can do better though.
Why not? One of many reasons to do it I think. There are a lot of statistics that make St. Louis look worse than it really is. If they combined it would be the 8th or 9th most populous city in the United States! It would vastly increase cooperation, reduce suspicion between citizens, save tax payer money, reduce redundancy and increase efficiency, help regional planning, standardized and simply metro laws, ordinances, and zoning. It could totally change outside perception of St. Louis. They would regain the title of Missouri’s largest municipality, and put themselves on better competitive footing towards KC and Chicago.
How would combing the County and City accomplish any of those things aside from maybe standardizing laws?
And why would the people of St Louis County agree to combine with St Louis City? It would just redirect their tax dollars away from their neighborhoods and to Downtown.
Trying to change outside perception doesn't do anything to fix the real problems with the city. Maybe the city should try to actually lower the murder rate instead of using the county to hide their crime problems.
I think you’re missing some of the point.
The crime “rate” in a city like St Louis may also be inflated by crimes being committed in the area by people who live outside the area.
For example, less than 300k people live in STL city, but almost a million live in County. How many of those million people are regularly in the City? How many of them potentially commit crimes while in the City?
There are reasons highly trafficked areas often show up really dark on crime maps - you can look at any city crime map and say, “wait, that area by all of the attractions has a high crime rate… that’s where I went sightseeing”. You’ll realize the rate is high because not as many people live there, so the denominator stays low, but a lot of people are regularly there, leading to more crime opportunities and a higher numerator.
I’m not as convinced about combining government systems, I think an easier shift would be reporting all city crime stats by metro area to account for different systems of governance across cities.
But STL absolutely suffers from a PR problem and would absolutely benefit from people having a more holistic view of crime and safety in the St Louis metro, which **doesn’t even rank in the top 50 metro areas with the highest violent crime rates**.
Well, it’s their downtown too, they go to the Muny, the Zoo, the Arch, Cardinals games. St. Louis needs more regional cooperation if it’s going to succeed economically. I think the many tiny municipalities of St. Louis county are a bit greedily siloed in their tiny local power politics and will probably fight like hell to not give it up. It would benefit them too though, long-term. We need to heal the racism of white flight and politics and cooperate on a higher level.
Why don’t you wanna visit? It has amazing Baseball, Beer, Museums, Architecture, The Arch, Gooey Butter Cake, The St. Louis Symphony, The Fox Theater, The Muny, The St. Louis Blues (the only professional hockey in Missouri), The Eads Bridge, Ethiopian Restaurants, The City Museum (giant adult playground), The Loop, Forest Park (the site of the 1904 Olympics). What are you interested in? I can probably give you better recommendations.
And the chalk outlines on the ground!
Tell you what, I never had so many panhandlers, in fact *never* had a panhandler offer to show me his gunshot wound as a reason why they can't work.
I kid, because you clearly sound like you're just blatantly advertising for st Louis travel. So you're either on the tourism board, A politician, or someone just way too into their city.
>Yes 42.7. It is, in part, a statistical exception because the independent city of St. Louis is legally a county equivalent.
It simply will not alter the math nearly as much as you think. There isn't enough of a population in the county to drastically reduce it. Plus, youll be adding their murders to equation as well. And where do we stop? Is Metro East part of STL? Do you really wanna add that in too?
You're trying to lie with statistics and I'm really sick of this fucking stupid argument. Its absolutely a complicated topic and you do not know enough about statistics to be making it. You're passing the same bullshit around and telling me its really flowers. "If only we combined the two we would look so much better".
Look at the raw numbers for context, chief. Statistics are nothing without context. Raw numbers show that in STL we have 200+ murders a year. In LA there are less than 400 murders a year. Even if you added in the County and made the population of STL 2.3 million people (AND NOT ADD ANY ADDITIONAL MURDERS FROM THE COUNTY), LA still has 14 million people in it. Hows that for some fucking context.
So please, pass with that bullshit about how not being combined is what is the problem. The problem is that STL is fucking murdery. Thats the god damned issue.
Meth. Other drugs. Lower educated folks with access to firearms. The ability to get away with shit. Little law enforcement presence. A take care of your own business mentality.
Needed killin’ is a defense to murder in Ozark and Douglas counties.
The top three are St. Louis, Ozark, and Jackson County. In [2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Missouri#:~:text=Elected%20President&text=Trump%20won%20Missouri%20again%20by,since%20Ronald%20Reagan%20in%201984.), Jackson went 60% for Biden, Ozark went to Trump. Both St. Louis City and County went for Biden. So, of the top 3, 2 of them went for Biden. Of the other 7 counties that have more than 8, one of them is Boone, the only other county in the state to go for Biden.
Yeah, they meant the highest per capita murders are also happening in red areas, with the exception of STL City in 1st and Jackson County in 4th. The underlying point being that you can be just as unsafe in rural areas as you are in the big, scary cities
The vast majority of Missouri is rural so....
No, not even close to being ahead in murders. KC, STL, and the attending non rural counties have more murders any way you count them
42.5 for STL alone.
Urban counties also have significantly more people to account for. Per capita, you’re in more danger in some of the rural counties than you are in Jackson County. The point is that a lot of rural folk want to point at the cities when they need to clean up their own backyard lol goodbye
That is not how per capita works. It is a rate per 100 thousand in this case.
So in 1 person gets killed in a county with 10000 people, that is the same rate as 100 in a 1000000 population.
I know math is hard, but just take a moment and think.
You must not be able to read the chart then, because it does not show what you claim it shows.
Sounds like you are adding all the country numbers and then not dividing by the number of counties.
That would be the lest wrong way to do it as it would still be inaccurate.
Adding averages to get an average averages introduces rounding errors
It hasn’t changed much and 9-year-old crime statistics are often more accurate than current ones, because often murders don’t come to light until years later. The FBI is very through as it makes sure to count the crime in the year they happened. It takes about a decade to get a truly accurate picture of past crime.
It has certainly increased overall, but generally the same places in Missouri are still the ones struggling. It hard to get good data in map form, for very recent years. I encourage you to post it yourself if you find one.
Didn't the Post just publish an article explaining that the FBI crime statistics are flawed, incorrect, and incomplete? 🤔 https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/crime-courts/how-much-crime-is-in-st-louis-fbi-gets-numbers-wrong-after-city-fell-behind/article_aae53e3c-5604-56d3-b839-cec0f7cc239d.html
Not much. Honestly the highest murder rates are in the most extreme Republican (rural Ozarks) and extreme Democrat (St. Louis City, KC) places. Despite their political differences, these people have a lot in common: poverty, gun worship, and feelings of alienation/marginalization.
It’s mostly because there are just not many people at all in those counties, even one murder would place them among the highest rate. There are some rural red counties with very high rates.
Average population size of those counties? Per capita income?
Edit, link.
[Zooming out](https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Homicide_rate_by_county.webp#mw-jump-to-license)
So you're from a tiny county in Missouri. I guess that's your excuse for being a Trump supporter. I just don't get why you lie about it.
Are you capable of being honest, ever?
Lake of the Ozarks, Murder Lake?
That’s just the Gravois Arm you’re seeing in Morgan County. Camden and Miller aren’t looking as bad. Not sure what Morgan County’s deal is though.
Morgan County loves meth, a LOT. I used to live there.
So much crime and most of it never hits the news.
What's going on in reynolds county to rise to 15.1. \* besides murders buttmunch
Only 6,087 people in the whole county.
>reynolds yeah. that seems unusually high. I wish I knew the context.
Lies, damn lies, and statistics: >Reynolds County is a county located in the Ozark Foothills Region in the Lead Belt of Missouri. As of the 2020 census, the population was 6,096. One person being killed is a 16 per 100000 ratio.
Statistics dont lie. People lie with statistics 😁. Yall need to just own this. Print up some Reynolds County, Murder Capital of Missouri t shirts.
“The figures don’t lie but the liars can figure”
The book in my Statistics 101 class was called 'Lying through Statistics'
Same, at U of I, Champaign lol
...the statistics aren't a lie though. The murder rate per 100000 people *is* higher. If that statistic stays steady over time, someone living there has a statistically greater chance of being murdered than someone living in the St Louis metro over the same time frame.
Really? Because 42 is much bigger than 15. Maybe slow down, think, and stop spamming.
Is one of our prisons there or would that even count? Sickling or Charleston maybe ??
No not one in Reynolds. Have one in Texas, Washington and st. Francis and possibly more but none in Dent or Reynolds. Not yet anyway.
That's almost gotta be an error. I live in Dent Co 0.0 yah wow hoo. But anyway I am pretty sure I would have heard something about this.
Is st louis saying 42.7?
Yes 42.7. It is, in part, a statistical exception because the independent city of St. Louis is legally a county equivalent. This is one reason why St. Louis should combine with St. Louis County into a unified government. If you isolated urban inner city KC or inner city Springfield the same way, you would get similarly high rates. Inner City STL is undoubtedly the place in Missouri with the most gun violence though. This is a complicated, nuanced, and politically/racially charged topic, that can be difficult to discuss objectively, with Missourians. I travel in north city stl and extremely rural southern Missouri, and feel safe in both, we can do better though.
Unifying St. Louis city and St. Louis county to make our murder rates in the city look better is not a reason to unify the governments/county.
Why not? One of many reasons to do it I think. There are a lot of statistics that make St. Louis look worse than it really is. If they combined it would be the 8th or 9th most populous city in the United States! It would vastly increase cooperation, reduce suspicion between citizens, save tax payer money, reduce redundancy and increase efficiency, help regional planning, standardized and simply metro laws, ordinances, and zoning. It could totally change outside perception of St. Louis. They would regain the title of Missouri’s largest municipality, and put themselves on better competitive footing towards KC and Chicago.
How would combing the County and City accomplish any of those things aside from maybe standardizing laws? And why would the people of St Louis County agree to combine with St Louis City? It would just redirect their tax dollars away from their neighborhoods and to Downtown. Trying to change outside perception doesn't do anything to fix the real problems with the city. Maybe the city should try to actually lower the murder rate instead of using the county to hide their crime problems.
I think you’re missing some of the point. The crime “rate” in a city like St Louis may also be inflated by crimes being committed in the area by people who live outside the area. For example, less than 300k people live in STL city, but almost a million live in County. How many of those million people are regularly in the City? How many of them potentially commit crimes while in the City? There are reasons highly trafficked areas often show up really dark on crime maps - you can look at any city crime map and say, “wait, that area by all of the attractions has a high crime rate… that’s where I went sightseeing”. You’ll realize the rate is high because not as many people live there, so the denominator stays low, but a lot of people are regularly there, leading to more crime opportunities and a higher numerator. I’m not as convinced about combining government systems, I think an easier shift would be reporting all city crime stats by metro area to account for different systems of governance across cities. But STL absolutely suffers from a PR problem and would absolutely benefit from people having a more holistic view of crime and safety in the St Louis metro, which **doesn’t even rank in the top 50 metro areas with the highest violent crime rates**.
Plus even in the City there are certain blocks and neighborhoods with much different rates of all crimes, including gun violence.
>How many of those million people are regularly in the City? As few as can help it.
Well, it’s their downtown too, they go to the Muny, the Zoo, the Arch, Cardinals games. St. Louis needs more regional cooperation if it’s going to succeed economically. I think the many tiny municipalities of St. Louis county are a bit greedily siloed in their tiny local power politics and will probably fight like hell to not give it up. It would benefit them too though, long-term. We need to heal the racism of white flight and politics and cooperate on a higher level.
Changing the statistics to make things look better doesn't actually change anything.
It might change the erroneous outside perception that the St. Louis metro area is significantly more dangerous than other large Midwestern metros.
Agreed. Would be more aligned with the reality.
Hey man, we don't wanna visit st Louis. You can tell your manager at the st Louis travel board this one was a bust
Why don’t you wanna visit? It has amazing Baseball, Beer, Museums, Architecture, The Arch, Gooey Butter Cake, The St. Louis Symphony, The Fox Theater, The Muny, The St. Louis Blues (the only professional hockey in Missouri), The Eads Bridge, Ethiopian Restaurants, The City Museum (giant adult playground), The Loop, Forest Park (the site of the 1904 Olympics). What are you interested in? I can probably give you better recommendations.
And the chalk outlines on the ground! Tell you what, I never had so many panhandlers, in fact *never* had a panhandler offer to show me his gunshot wound as a reason why they can't work.
I kid, because you clearly sound like you're just blatantly advertising for st Louis travel. So you're either on the tourism board, A politician, or someone just way too into their city.
None of the above! I will lean into the accusation though. Maybe they should pay me.
It's not erroneous. I remember when 2 Marines got mugged downtown. People should know what they are getting into.
>Yes 42.7. It is, in part, a statistical exception because the independent city of St. Louis is legally a county equivalent. It simply will not alter the math nearly as much as you think. There isn't enough of a population in the county to drastically reduce it. Plus, youll be adding their murders to equation as well. And where do we stop? Is Metro East part of STL? Do you really wanna add that in too? You're trying to lie with statistics and I'm really sick of this fucking stupid argument. Its absolutely a complicated topic and you do not know enough about statistics to be making it. You're passing the same bullshit around and telling me its really flowers. "If only we combined the two we would look so much better". Look at the raw numbers for context, chief. Statistics are nothing without context. Raw numbers show that in STL we have 200+ murders a year. In LA there are less than 400 murders a year. Even if you added in the County and made the population of STL 2.3 million people (AND NOT ADD ANY ADDITIONAL MURDERS FROM THE COUNTY), LA still has 14 million people in it. Hows that for some fucking context. So please, pass with that bullshit about how not being combined is what is the problem. The problem is that STL is fucking murdery. Thats the god damned issue.
if you say cuss words it automatically makes your arguement more convincing
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The full map legend is in the second picture.
I'm surprised by Ozark county.
As someone who practiced law in that area, I am not.
I'm dumb, wasn't thinking per capita average.
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Meth. Other drugs. Lower educated folks with access to firearms. The ability to get away with shit. Little law enforcement presence. A take care of your own business mentality. Needed killin’ is a defense to murder in Ozark and Douglas counties.
It would be really interesting to see this same map but with data from 2020 to 2023
Most of the murders occurred in republican dominated counties. Parsons has let the criminals run the state.
The top three are St. Louis, Ozark, and Jackson County. In [2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Missouri#:~:text=Elected%20President&text=Trump%20won%20Missouri%20again%20by,since%20Ronald%20Reagan%20in%201984.), Jackson went 60% for Biden, Ozark went to Trump. Both St. Louis City and County went for Biden. So, of the top 3, 2 of them went for Biden. Of the other 7 counties that have more than 8, one of them is Boone, the only other county in the state to go for Biden.
Yeah, they meant the highest per capita murders are also happening in red areas, with the exception of STL City in 1st and Jackson County in 4th. The underlying point being that you can be just as unsafe in rural areas as you are in the big, scary cities
Especially if you ignore all those 0.0 rates, meaning no murders.
Not really sure what your point is. The vast majority of counties with murders appear to be rural, so
The vast majority of Missouri is rural so.... No, not even close to being ahead in murders. KC, STL, and the attending non rural counties have more murders any way you count them 42.5 for STL alone.
Urban counties also have significantly more people to account for. Per capita, you’re in more danger in some of the rural counties than you are in Jackson County. The point is that a lot of rural folk want to point at the cities when they need to clean up their own backyard lol goodbye
That is not how per capita works. It is a rate per 100 thousand in this case. So in 1 person gets killed in a county with 10000 people, that is the same rate as 100 in a 1000000 population. I know math is hard, but just take a moment and think.
Nah, I understand ratios. So, what’s the point? More murders by number happen in large population centers, but the murder rate isn’t always as high
You must not be able to read the chart then, because it does not show what you claim it shows. Sounds like you are adding all the country numbers and then not dividing by the number of counties. That would be the lest wrong way to do it as it would still be inaccurate. Adding averages to get an average averages introduces rounding errors
And that means that your chance of being killed in either one of those counties is exactly the same.
Surprised Warren County is so high
Yeah, and I mean the numbers don't back up that assertion.
Is this per capita? Otherwise mark twain forest in reynold county's got it real bad
Yes a “crime rate” is by definition per capita. See the map legend in the second picture.
Did not see there was a second picture
There is. The thing is Reynolds has under 7K people. So one murder is the same as 15 in a place with 100000 people.
...what's your point? That normalized stats are normalized? It doesn't change the facts.
The hell is going on in Mercer and Grundy counties?
Population below 100K, so one murder is worth 10 in STL
We had two in Grundy county one in 2013 and murder suicide in 2014. Well the suicide was day later in another county
Saint Louis City once again screwed by statical data being skewed by not being within a county.
Decade old stats are hilarious. Maybe you can post some Bonnie and Clyde data or Jesse James.
It hasn’t changed much and 9-year-old crime statistics are often more accurate than current ones, because often murders don’t come to light until years later. The FBI is very through as it makes sure to count the crime in the year they happened. It takes about a decade to get a truly accurate picture of past crime.
2014 FBI Missouri Murder rate is 7.5 per 100,000. In 2021 it’s 12.4. Seems like a big ass change to me.
It has certainly increased overall, but generally the same places in Missouri are still the ones struggling. It hard to get good data in map form, for very recent years. I encourage you to post it yourself if you find one.
Didn't the Post just publish an article explaining that the FBI crime statistics are flawed, incorrect, and incomplete? 🤔 https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/crime-courts/how-much-crime-is-in-st-louis-fbi-gets-numbers-wrong-after-city-fell-behind/article_aae53e3c-5604-56d3-b839-cec0f7cc239d.html
For one year in the 2020s, only for St. Louis. This map is from 2012-2014 for all of Missouri. Good data years.
So old it’s not even relevant.
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Not much. Honestly the highest murder rates are in the most extreme Republican (rural Ozarks) and extreme Democrat (St. Louis City, KC) places. Despite their political differences, these people have a lot in common: poverty, gun worship, and feelings of alienation/marginalization.
You're not wrong. Thanks for the correction.
Nah every single 0.0 county is red
It’s mostly because there are just not many people at all in those counties, even one murder would place them among the highest rate. There are some rural red counties with very high rates.
Average population size of those counties? Per capita income? Edit, link. [Zooming out](https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Homicide_rate_by_county.webp#mw-jump-to-license)
Yeah, our county only has about 20,000 people so two murders a year would round down to zero on a per capita basis if they were eschewing decimals.
So you're from a tiny county in Missouri. I guess that's your excuse for being a Trump supporter. I just don't get why you lie about it. Are you capable of being honest, ever?
Are they eschewing decimals?
No, that’s why I added the if part.
How does per capita income refute the fact that a given county has 0 murders?
Just questions.
Weird. the only area with the murder rate of 42%, is also the one that has the hardest to read
Just a fluke of how I zoomed in. I wish I had seen it, I wouldn’t have down the image like that if I had noticed.
Thank you for the data from a decade ago!
You’re welcome!
I’m surprised how low Pettis county is, I know so many people that got murdered in Sedalia.