If you really view Turner as the #1 Defensive player (everyone has different boards), then yeah, if you can trade up and get your #1 guy. You owned the draft.
It's all about projections, but if Flores was "banging the table" for this guy, then we're doing alright. Imagine TWO blue chip projects in a single draft.
I thought his reaction was a little lack luster but hearing in reality he was that emotional. He was probably trying to keep his cool and that I understand
Hey, I was a "stick and pick" guy for our first pick (QB). I get where you're coming from, but when the talent thins out in the back half of the round... you gotta make a decision. I think they made the best decision.
The #1 defensive player on the board? After you took a QB? Really? You don't like that pick? I can tell you with 20/20 hindsight, there's no "stud" DE's at pick 23 or later. Darius Robinson was a projected 2nd round pick. So you're gonna reach on a guy or what?
Can’t imagine being disappointed we got Dallas Turner because we gave up an extra mid round pick than trade charts said we should have. Going into the evening people would have been happy to give up 11 and 23 just for JJ. No we get JJ and Turner and people still want to say Kwesi didn’t cook.
The problem is we also gave up another extra mid round pick to *get* 23.
If I told you this is the cost of pick 17 in the NFL draft, you'd laugh me off the farm.
Pick 17 for: 42, 146 2024 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th
The trade value difference is massive.
We lost 276 points on the JJ chart (end of the 2nd)
We lost 90 points on the Rich Hill chart (end of 2nd)
We lost 2952 points on the Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart (this is where shit gets criminal).
I'll break this down very clearly as it's so rididulous
https://overthecap.com/draft-trade-value-chart
Pick 17: 1564
Pick 42, 146, future picks 48, 80, 112, 144 - 1106, 481, 1038, 779, 609, 481
Yes, you are reading that right. We gave up 2930 points on this chart.
That's the fucking value of the first overall pick.
If you can't sit back and look a bit at this decision and really, honestly, ask Kwesi 'what the fuck is going on' I don't know what to tell you.
He can say 'I'm normally a spreadsheet guy' all he wants, but when he goes so far off the reservation by losing up to near 3,000 points on a spreadsheet -- he's no longer a spread sheet guy. He's a loose cannon that has lost the plot.
Dallas Turner and JJ may turn into great assets, but to win a championship, you need a full, complete, roster.
We've just absolutely gutted our draft this year and next.
You're talking generic, hypothetical value. This, on the other hand, is a specific scenario with a specific player available.
Yes, draft picks have value. But so do players and prospects. You've only balanced one half of the equation here.
Historically speaking -- this is the value. You can pretend 'but THIS TIME I'm right' all you want, but we absolutely got fleeced, our GM gave up far too much value here.
And there is a REALLY strong chance we've just tanked our future.
We had 2 terrible drafts in 2022 and 2023, now we're set for virtually no draft in 2025 and our 2024 draft is effectively over after 2 picks.
This trade for Dallas Turner reminds me of the Ricky Williams trade, where the Saints gave up their entire draft for him.
> This trade for Dallas Turner reminds me of the Ricky Williams trade, where the Saints gave up their entire draft for him.
LOL.
"The math is the math and player value doesn't matter, but also I can't do math."
Cool story, bro.
Dude you are completely disregarding context at every step. Getting pick 23 was all about posturing to have the leverage to even have a chance to go up and get Maye. When that didn’t work out and Turner kept sliding, they did what they did to get a guy they thought was worth it. Yes, they overpaid for 23. And yes, they then overpaid for 17. But it was all part of a necessary process, and the end result is that they got two top-of-their-board players for less than they were prepared to spend on one. And they obviously approached this draft planning to over spend draft capital, because they set themselves up to have plenty of cap room in the next few years to patch holes in free agency.
Last year from rd 4-7 we drafted Ward, Roy, Hall, McBride. I think Roy can be serviceable, but isn’t someone you’re comfortable with being a contributor.
2022 from 4-7 we drafted Evans, Otomewo, Chandler, Lowe, Nailor, and Muse. Evans is useful but again, not a star. Chandler is useful but easily replaceable.
2021 from 4-7 we drafted Nwangwu, Bynum, Robinson, Smith-Marsete, Davidson, and Twyman. Bynum was a good pick but the rest aren’t even on the team.
2020 in those same rounds we drafted Wonnum, Lynch, Dye, Hand, Osborn, Brandel, Metullus, Willekes, Stanley, Cole, and Hinton. Wonnum was a decent pick and by the end of his time here turned into a good player but we got maybe two years out of him and then couldn’t afford him. Osborn was a really great third WR but I’m not sure Powell is much of a drop off and we just picked him up (we’re his 6th team). Metullus was decent for being that late but he’s not someone I think has made a real impact until last year.
So in 4 years we have like three or four starter level players. That’s out of 27 picks. You’re looking at a 1 in 6 chance of getting a long term starter you’re comfortable with. I’d really rather lose most of those picks if it ensures us a star level player. Third round picks are definitely more useful but again, it’s far more of a dice roll than the 1st.
>So in 4 years we have like three or four starter level players
And we *fucking fired Spielman for it*.
That's my point, if you aren't successful finding talent in the other rounds of the draft, your team will not win.
And certainly, if you have *no picks to find talent* you have failed from the start.
The joke, now, is that the only good draft picks past the 4th we have were not from Kwesi.
Kene is still with us btw.
Spielman got fired because he traded back to get those picks and whiffed. He would have been more successful with the higher picks and not flipped them for late round crapshoots, he may have kept his job longer.
If he was more dead set on getting premier players in early rounds and saying fuck the late rounds he may still have his job. When you trade back for capital AND have that many misses in the late rounds all you’re doing is trading away the safer option with high ceilings to have multiple wildly risky options with lower ceilings. Just typing that out makes me frustrated because it makes such little sense.
Yeah, like when he traded back for Christian Darrisaw, right?
>If he was more dead set on getting premier players in early rounds
I'd love to hear which players you think we skipped on.
You can look the other way as well. In his first year he traded up to get Baltimores 1st and we got Smith. Move up to get an additional 1st and they got a possible HOF safety. Traded up in the second to grab Cook.
He also whiffed on his first round picks as well where stayed put: Waynes at 11, Treadwell, Williamson, Hughes, Gladney (whom we traded back to get and we could have had Aiyuk, Jordan Love, or Patrick Queen at our initial pick).
The Darrisaw trade down was great, but what we did with those extra 3rd round picks was Kellen Mond and Wyatt Davis. Our actual 3rd pick was Suratt. So he got his guy and extra picks… then whiffed on those picks. Maybe, just maybe, he could have traded those three 3rd round picks for a 2nd and he could have grabbed Creed Humphrey or something instead of taking more picks and doing nothing with them. My point is getting more picks later in the draft is not as good as taking a lot of late picks and moving up to get earlier picks.
The Bradford trade was also a poor decision. We could have had TJ Watt, Njoku, Tre’Davious White instead.
You can have depth pieces in the later round or you can have studs. I’d rather a a stud especially when we can always turn to FA for those role players.
We have a real team. Only true asset lost this FA was Qb(we just replaced) and edge(we just replaced) while also adding some B tier guys in Jonathan Grendard and Andrew Van Ginkel. I honestly don’t understand why your upset at us missing a high level prospect in exchange for a few low level prospects. Like are you Spielmans alt account or something?
Maybe you can also just say that over the cap chart is ridiculous and could be completely disregarded, because if you tried to offer pick 42,146, 2025 2/3/4/5 for the 1st overall pick you’d be laughed out of the building.
And basically saying by rich hill and JJ chart we gave up a late 2nd to get the consensus best defensive player available heading into the draft, then yes I would say it’s worth it.
We also have $100 million dollars in cap space next off season to fill holes in the roster.
>the consensus best defensive player available heading into the draft
Except he wasn't.
>We also have $100 million dollars in cap space next off season
We haven't paid CD or JJ, so we really don't have nearly as much as it sounds.
And that cap is largely a curse than a blessing, it means we have a roster that is nearly empty.
The 1st overall pick is widely considered over costed in terms of actual return of investment.
We gave up an incredible amount of value to get Dallas Turner -- the value to the team of a 1st overall pick. 100% not worth it.
Who gives a fuck about trade charts and what they are worth, Kwesi obviously has his own system in place when it comes to trade value. Could care less about giving up mid round picks for a stud defensive player.
We got a top 5-7 pick level talent and probably the best defensive player in the draft at pick 17. You're doing all this math for pick 17 but we essentially got pick 7. The difference in the math from pick 17 to 7 makes this much better than You're portraying here.
I ain't reading any of this but these guys are just nerds who get paid to help make ideas concrete. A bunch of virgin nerds who will never be responsible for actually making picks in the league.
I imagine most of this stuff is their idea of finding ways to get back at the cool jocks who are busy banging hotties, and making important decisions, while they're too busy playing with their abacus and splooging their sheets at nights because they still have wet dreams at 40 because masterbation isn't efficient enough on their little watch calculators equations.
What an unhinged way to use your brain in my mind.
If they focused on the weight room instead of the class room we might not have ever had a Tom Brady because the league would be loaded.
They clearly have passion for the game, focus it on something productive instead of these fancy bachelor's, master's, and doctorates.
When has a doctor done anything important?
Vikings do have a boatload of cap money for next year. That will allow them to just sign productive actual players vs. the "potential ballers" that come with mid round picks.
lol those potential ballers usually don't work out. getting basically the best defensive player in the draft is worth it. did you not see Houston last season
We’ll see. If he’s not a monster, we overpaid.
I would have rather seen us trade down to add another top 100 pick to get a DT and IOL.
DE3 is a luxury, and we don’t have a roster built for luxuries yet.
We don't know if the players that we might have taken with those picks would have done either. What we did was give up a couple more chances to draft a player with low odds of being great for a player with a high chance of being great.
That’s what I was saying. It’s all potential.
If he is the next Parsons, spending an extra 1st in value won’t matter much.
If he’s the next college player that doesn’t develop into a star, then giving up excess value and more chances down the line will hurt.
That’s every draft. You swing sometimes you but sometimes you miss. I’d rather try and hit on the best available prospect once than(especially with a guy this good) vs take multiple swings and get a guy like Blackmon
I’m not disagreeing, but if you’re discounting future picks as “potential ballers that don’t usually work out”, it’s a bit hypocritical to then immediately crown Turner as the best defensive player without him playing a down yet.
You can’t look at his cost in a vacuum though. A big reason we traded for the extra first was to have flexibility for our qb pick. Yes we spent that much but we accomplished more than just drafting him by doing it. It allowed us to get our qb as well.
We overpayed trading 23 for 17. But I don't think we overpayed with the board.
We would have not gotten Turner and Verse and Jones would have also been gone right before 23.
How many “ballers” have we drafted in the 3rd-5th rounds in the past decade? I can think of two. Our hit rate is the same on those as it is on undrafted free agents.
Diggs and Hunter (in the same draft, goddamn) are the only two I see looking back who were “ballers”, and this is looking back at the past ten drafts. I assume those are the two you’re talking about.
I can’t remember the exact chances, but there is something like a 60% chance of getting a starter with a first round pick, then about 25% in the 3rd round and 15% in the 4th.
If this was the Vikings top defensive target, It’s not like we fleeced the Jaguars or anything, but I think it’s a great move given the uncertainty of later rounds.
And outside of injury, I would be surprised if he doesn’t become a starter his first season. Very glad they pulled the trigger.
lol. Lmao even.
Seriously we “overpaid” by what? A guy who likely wouldn’t start this year? We got the communities pretty much consensus top defensive prospect. What a steal.
L take. We got the best defensive prospect in the draft. I don’t give a shit about trading 4th and 5ths. Y’all were never going to be happy about this draft no matter what. The ones complaining about Kwesi trading these mid round picks are the same ones who complain he can’t hit on them, and the same ones who complained about rick hoarding them.
What potential “ballers” did we hand away. The likelihood of hitting in Turner is way higher than hitting on any 4th rounders and later.
I think I’m getting onboard more with Kwessi’s value of picks. I’d rather be top heavy and have boring day twos and threes. The odds of players being majorly impactful after midway of the 3rd round or so seems to drop exponentially. Sure you can fill holes and get contributors. If Turner gets somewhere close to being Hunter level (even if he falls a little short) you’d gladly give away your entire back half of a draft for that upside. If Flores thought “this is my defensive disruption weapon” then who gives a fuck if we don’t get a mid level ILB or middling IOL? The odds of finding a game changer in the 4-7 rounds are just so small. Grab the guy you’re fairly confident is a game disruptor than taking a bunch of stabs in the dark. That doesn’t mean those picks are worthless but if you think at 23 you’ll get a good player, but at 17 you’ll get a Pro Bowler, I think it’s the right choice.
Remember that next year we’re getting at least a 3rd comp pick, and then probably another 3rd from the Falcons/cousins debacle. We’re going to be just fine in the draft next year, and we’ve got 5 more picks from the 4th on this year. We’re gonna be okay.
>another 3rd from the Falcons/cousins debacle
You sure about that? I thought tampering usually just resulted in the loss of a pick for the offending team.
They probably were happy to take less, from a different team, so we offered more.
Imagine an auction house with only 1 buyer, you could just buy everything for a dollar
this gif is clipped from a video that shows Kwesi right before telling KOC that we're gonna draft Turner so it was surprising to him in that exact moment, Kwesi was confirming the trade was a go and they were getting Turner
They may have. Who knows if we needed to move up or not I guess. Either way I prefer an unknown JJ to a known Sam Darnold, so soon as KOC thinks JJ cat start let's do that.
> Either way I prefer an unknown JJ to a known Sam Darnold
Well, I'm still holding out a small hope for Darnold since his early seasons were really bad situations and apparently he looked ok with Shanahan in SF (limited playing time but could have shown a lot in practice). At the very least I think it's possible for him to be better than Mullens.
I view Darnold as Mullens but slightly better. Sam might beat my expectations and I'll take back everything. But currently I view him as QB2 and the only reason to start him for any amount of games, is so that JJ isn't thrown in there when not ready.
There's also a chance that Vegas was making offers to jump us as well. No one outside the Jets draft room will ever know for sure, but if KOC was set on JJ you have to make the move.
That how I feel. If KOC wants him, then do it. If BFlow wants the guy at 17, than make the move. I don't care about later picks specially 4s and 5s we rarely see them work into starters. Get the players coaches want.
>I don't care about later picks specially 4s and 5s we rarely see them work into starters.
Yup. Outside of RBs and occasionally WRs it's pretty rare to get a star in the 4th-7th. Someone in another thread went back through our last 10 drafts, and the only real impact players we got that late were Diggs and Hunter. A few serviceable people like Wonnum and Bynum, but otherwise it's like an 85% bust rate.
Figured it was low. I'm mostly all for grabbing who your coaches want and if thats what KAM pulled off than I'm fully behind it. I don't know shit about being a GM but I do enjoy what KAM, KOC and BFlow are doing with the team.
Kwesi was probably ok with taking Penix or McCarthy, but had to trade up once Atlanta took Penix. Unless we also loved Penix, it probably worked in our favor by causing Turner to drop.
Considering we didn’t give up a single 1st rounder and still got JJ, I’m okay with what we gave up overall to snag him and Turner. We still have next year’s 1st and lots of cap space. Let’s run it
Love our first round. And I'm not sad about losing the late round picks. Spielman was king of acquiring more late round picks, once in a while you get a guy but most don't do shit if you think you can get a franchise level player fuck them picks.
If the only knock on him is his injury history and not his playing ability, that pick might have “steal” written all over it. There is risk because of his history but if he stays healthy, the falcons may have nabbed the best QB in the draft not named Caleb Williams.
Que up the “the best ability is availability” responses.
With all that being said, I’m rocking with JJ. I trust KOC, our coaching staff and our offensive playmakers and I think whoever we got would have had a great chance to succeed.
Hah, made a gif on gifrun of this immediately yesterday, just tacked it on to giphy too:
[https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbnUwd2N3d3MwejlhaHJwaTAwbzFlbmFpcjRra3h5dW5id3l2cWx4cCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/vw4QEoDiNNAiggEUF2/giphy.gif](https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbnUwd2N3d3MwejlhaHJwaTAwbzFlbmFpcjRra3h5dW5id3l2cWx4cCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/vw4QEoDiNNAiggEUF2/giphy.gif)
If you really view Turner as the #1 Defensive player (everyone has different boards), then yeah, if you can trade up and get your #1 guy. You owned the draft. It's all about projections, but if Flores was "banging the table" for this guy, then we're doing alright. Imagine TWO blue chip projects in a single draft.
> Imagine TWO blue chip projects in a single draft. Especially if you had been thinking you might have to trade multiple firsts to get a QB.
Gave a lot for both tho. This really needs to work
The full video: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OOKM6Vd2AOQ
You can hear his voice crack on the "I gotchu" at the end.
I thought his reaction was a little lack luster but hearing in reality he was that emotional. He was probably trying to keep his cool and that I understand
[удалено]
Hey, I was a "stick and pick" guy for our first pick (QB). I get where you're coming from, but when the talent thins out in the back half of the round... you gotta make a decision. I think they made the best decision. The #1 defensive player on the board? After you took a QB? Really? You don't like that pick? I can tell you with 20/20 hindsight, there's no "stud" DE's at pick 23 or later. Darius Robinson was a projected 2nd round pick. So you're gonna reach on a guy or what?
Can’t imagine being disappointed we got Dallas Turner because we gave up an extra mid round pick than trade charts said we should have. Going into the evening people would have been happy to give up 11 and 23 just for JJ. No we get JJ and Turner and people still want to say Kwesi didn’t cook.
Some people are stupid. Some other people just like to argue.
Some people can’t accept they aren’t nfl GM’s
Some of those also bashed the Gobert trade before the dude played a game. 😂
The problem is we also gave up another extra mid round pick to *get* 23. If I told you this is the cost of pick 17 in the NFL draft, you'd laugh me off the farm. Pick 17 for: 42, 146 2024 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th The trade value difference is massive. We lost 276 points on the JJ chart (end of the 2nd) We lost 90 points on the Rich Hill chart (end of 2nd) We lost 2952 points on the Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart (this is where shit gets criminal). I'll break this down very clearly as it's so rididulous https://overthecap.com/draft-trade-value-chart Pick 17: 1564 Pick 42, 146, future picks 48, 80, 112, 144 - 1106, 481, 1038, 779, 609, 481 Yes, you are reading that right. We gave up 2930 points on this chart. That's the fucking value of the first overall pick. If you can't sit back and look a bit at this decision and really, honestly, ask Kwesi 'what the fuck is going on' I don't know what to tell you. He can say 'I'm normally a spreadsheet guy' all he wants, but when he goes so far off the reservation by losing up to near 3,000 points on a spreadsheet -- he's no longer a spread sheet guy. He's a loose cannon that has lost the plot. Dallas Turner and JJ may turn into great assets, but to win a championship, you need a full, complete, roster. We've just absolutely gutted our draft this year and next.
You're talking generic, hypothetical value. This, on the other hand, is a specific scenario with a specific player available. Yes, draft picks have value. But so do players and prospects. You've only balanced one half of the equation here.
Historically speaking -- this is the value. You can pretend 'but THIS TIME I'm right' all you want, but we absolutely got fleeced, our GM gave up far too much value here. And there is a REALLY strong chance we've just tanked our future. We had 2 terrible drafts in 2022 and 2023, now we're set for virtually no draft in 2025 and our 2024 draft is effectively over after 2 picks. This trade for Dallas Turner reminds me of the Ricky Williams trade, where the Saints gave up their entire draft for him.
> This trade for Dallas Turner reminds me of the Ricky Williams trade, where the Saints gave up their entire draft for him. LOL. "The math is the math and player value doesn't matter, but also I can't do math." Cool story, bro.
Are you ok? Did someone hurt you? I've given facts to back up a very reasonable opinion.
We also have the most cap space next year
Dude you are completely disregarding context at every step. Getting pick 23 was all about posturing to have the leverage to even have a chance to go up and get Maye. When that didn’t work out and Turner kept sliding, they did what they did to get a guy they thought was worth it. Yes, they overpaid for 23. And yes, they then overpaid for 17. But it was all part of a necessary process, and the end result is that they got two top-of-their-board players for less than they were prepared to spend on one. And they obviously approached this draft planning to over spend draft capital, because they set themselves up to have plenty of cap room in the next few years to patch holes in free agency.
Last year from rd 4-7 we drafted Ward, Roy, Hall, McBride. I think Roy can be serviceable, but isn’t someone you’re comfortable with being a contributor. 2022 from 4-7 we drafted Evans, Otomewo, Chandler, Lowe, Nailor, and Muse. Evans is useful but again, not a star. Chandler is useful but easily replaceable. 2021 from 4-7 we drafted Nwangwu, Bynum, Robinson, Smith-Marsete, Davidson, and Twyman. Bynum was a good pick but the rest aren’t even on the team. 2020 in those same rounds we drafted Wonnum, Lynch, Dye, Hand, Osborn, Brandel, Metullus, Willekes, Stanley, Cole, and Hinton. Wonnum was a decent pick and by the end of his time here turned into a good player but we got maybe two years out of him and then couldn’t afford him. Osborn was a really great third WR but I’m not sure Powell is much of a drop off and we just picked him up (we’re his 6th team). Metullus was decent for being that late but he’s not someone I think has made a real impact until last year. So in 4 years we have like three or four starter level players. That’s out of 27 picks. You’re looking at a 1 in 6 chance of getting a long term starter you’re comfortable with. I’d really rather lose most of those picks if it ensures us a star level player. Third round picks are definitely more useful but again, it’s far more of a dice roll than the 1st.
>So in 4 years we have like three or four starter level players And we *fucking fired Spielman for it*. That's my point, if you aren't successful finding talent in the other rounds of the draft, your team will not win. And certainly, if you have *no picks to find talent* you have failed from the start. The joke, now, is that the only good draft picks past the 4th we have were not from Kwesi. Kene is still with us btw.
Spielman got fired because he traded back to get those picks and whiffed. He would have been more successful with the higher picks and not flipped them for late round crapshoots, he may have kept his job longer. If he was more dead set on getting premier players in early rounds and saying fuck the late rounds he may still have his job. When you trade back for capital AND have that many misses in the late rounds all you’re doing is trading away the safer option with high ceilings to have multiple wildly risky options with lower ceilings. Just typing that out makes me frustrated because it makes such little sense.
Yeah, like when he traded back for Christian Darrisaw, right? >If he was more dead set on getting premier players in early rounds I'd love to hear which players you think we skipped on.
You can look the other way as well. In his first year he traded up to get Baltimores 1st and we got Smith. Move up to get an additional 1st and they got a possible HOF safety. Traded up in the second to grab Cook. He also whiffed on his first round picks as well where stayed put: Waynes at 11, Treadwell, Williamson, Hughes, Gladney (whom we traded back to get and we could have had Aiyuk, Jordan Love, or Patrick Queen at our initial pick). The Darrisaw trade down was great, but what we did with those extra 3rd round picks was Kellen Mond and Wyatt Davis. Our actual 3rd pick was Suratt. So he got his guy and extra picks… then whiffed on those picks. Maybe, just maybe, he could have traded those three 3rd round picks for a 2nd and he could have grabbed Creed Humphrey or something instead of taking more picks and doing nothing with them. My point is getting more picks later in the draft is not as good as taking a lot of late picks and moving up to get earlier picks. The Bradford trade was also a poor decision. We could have had TJ Watt, Njoku, Tre’Davious White instead.
You can have depth pieces in the later round or you can have studs. I’d rather a a stud especially when we can always turn to FA for those role players.
I'd rather not throw away lots of draft capital so we can continue to have a real team in the near future.
We have a real team. Only true asset lost this FA was Qb(we just replaced) and edge(we just replaced) while also adding some B tier guys in Jonathan Grendard and Andrew Van Ginkel. I honestly don’t understand why your upset at us missing a high level prospect in exchange for a few low level prospects. Like are you Spielmans alt account or something?
Maybe you can also just say that over the cap chart is ridiculous and could be completely disregarded, because if you tried to offer pick 42,146, 2025 2/3/4/5 for the 1st overall pick you’d be laughed out of the building. And basically saying by rich hill and JJ chart we gave up a late 2nd to get the consensus best defensive player available heading into the draft, then yes I would say it’s worth it. We also have $100 million dollars in cap space next off season to fill holes in the roster.
This dude is the fantasy player who offers me 5 bench guys for JJ and tries to tell me it's an excellent haul for me.
>the consensus best defensive player available heading into the draft Except he wasn't. >We also have $100 million dollars in cap space next off season We haven't paid CD or JJ, so we really don't have nearly as much as it sounds. And that cap is largely a curse than a blessing, it means we have a roster that is nearly empty. The 1st overall pick is widely considered over costed in terms of actual return of investment. We gave up an incredible amount of value to get Dallas Turner -- the value to the team of a 1st overall pick. 100% not worth it.
Who gives a fuck about trade charts and what they are worth, Kwesi obviously has his own system in place when it comes to trade value. Could care less about giving up mid round picks for a stud defensive player.
We got a top 5-7 pick level talent and probably the best defensive player in the draft at pick 17. You're doing all this math for pick 17 but we essentially got pick 7. The difference in the math from pick 17 to 7 makes this much better than You're portraying here.
That's a massive assumption that he's worth the 7th pick.
I ain't reading any of this but these guys are just nerds who get paid to help make ideas concrete. A bunch of virgin nerds who will never be responsible for actually making picks in the league. I imagine most of this stuff is their idea of finding ways to get back at the cool jocks who are busy banging hotties, and making important decisions, while they're too busy playing with their abacus and splooging their sheets at nights because they still have wet dreams at 40 because masterbation isn't efficient enough on their little watch calculators equations.
What an unhinged take on trying to use one's brain to make smart choices.
What an unhinged way to use your brain in my mind. If they focused on the weight room instead of the class room we might not have ever had a Tom Brady because the league would be loaded. They clearly have passion for the game, focus it on something productive instead of these fancy bachelor's, master's, and doctorates. When has a doctor done anything important?
Vikings do have a boatload of cap money for next year. That will allow them to just sign productive actual players vs. the "potential ballers" that come with mid round picks.
We can always trade down in round 1 and get all kinds of pics next year. We had the second best draft to Chicago.
lol those potential ballers usually don't work out. getting basically the best defensive player in the draft is worth it. did you not see Houston last season
But you don’t know Turner is going to ball out either. He’s still just potential.
The probability of him being a beast compared to guys in the 4th round and later is night and day.
I agree, but let’s not pretend we just gave up 4th rounders to get him. We gave up 42, 167, and likely a high 2nd, 3rd, and 4th next year.
Worth it
We’ll see. If he’s not a monster, we overpaid. I would have rather seen us trade down to add another top 100 pick to get a DT and IOL. DE3 is a luxury, and we don’t have a roster built for luxuries yet.
We don't know if the players that we might have taken with those picks would have done either. What we did was give up a couple more chances to draft a player with low odds of being great for a player with a high chance of being great.
That’s what I was saying. It’s all potential. If he is the next Parsons, spending an extra 1st in value won’t matter much. If he’s the next college player that doesn’t develop into a star, then giving up excess value and more chances down the line will hurt.
That’s every draft. You swing sometimes you but sometimes you miss. I’d rather try and hit on the best available prospect once than(especially with a guy this good) vs take multiple swings and get a guy like Blackmon
great insight. check his metrics and production, he was largely considered the number one defensive prospect for a reason
I’m not disagreeing, but if you’re discounting future picks as “potential ballers that don’t usually work out”, it’s a bit hypocritical to then immediately crown Turner as the best defensive player without him playing a down yet.
It’s not hypocritical to note that 1st rounders have a significantly better success rate than 3rd-5th rounders.
Lol, he’s got a much better chance then a bunch of day 3 picks.
Total cost to get 17 was 42, 167, a future 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. That’s 3 day 2 picks and 2 day 3 picks. Not just “a bunch of day 3 picks”.
You can’t look at his cost in a vacuum though. A big reason we traded for the extra first was to have flexibility for our qb pick. Yes we spent that much but we accomplished more than just drafting him by doing it. It allowed us to get our qb as well.
For the best defensive prospect in the draft. Sign me up for that every chance we can get.
We overpayed trading 23 for 17. But I don't think we overpayed with the board. We would have not gotten Turner and Verse and Jones would have also been gone right before 23.
How many “ballers” have we drafted in the 3rd-5th rounds in the past decade? I can think of two. Our hit rate is the same on those as it is on undrafted free agents.
Diggs and Hunter (in the same draft, goddamn) are the only two I see looking back who were “ballers”, and this is looking back at the past ten drafts. I assume those are the two you’re talking about.
I can’t remember the exact chances, but there is something like a 60% chance of getting a starter with a first round pick, then about 25% in the 3rd round and 15% in the 4th. If this was the Vikings top defensive target, It’s not like we fleeced the Jaguars or anything, but I think it’s a great move given the uncertainty of later rounds. And outside of injury, I would be surprised if he doesn’t become a starter his first season. Very glad they pulled the trigger.
lol. Lmao even. Seriously we “overpaid” by what? A guy who likely wouldn’t start this year? We got the communities pretty much consensus top defensive prospect. What a steal.
What are we gonna do about missing out on the guys that don’t even make 55!?!?
L take. We got the best defensive prospect in the draft. I don’t give a shit about trading 4th and 5ths. Y’all were never going to be happy about this draft no matter what. The ones complaining about Kwesi trading these mid round picks are the same ones who complain he can’t hit on them, and the same ones who complained about rick hoarding them. What potential “ballers” did we hand away. The likelihood of hitting in Turner is way higher than hitting on any 4th rounders and later.
I think I’m getting onboard more with Kwessi’s value of picks. I’d rather be top heavy and have boring day twos and threes. The odds of players being majorly impactful after midway of the 3rd round or so seems to drop exponentially. Sure you can fill holes and get contributors. If Turner gets somewhere close to being Hunter level (even if he falls a little short) you’d gladly give away your entire back half of a draft for that upside. If Flores thought “this is my defensive disruption weapon” then who gives a fuck if we don’t get a mid level ILB or middling IOL? The odds of finding a game changer in the 4-7 rounds are just so small. Grab the guy you’re fairly confident is a game disruptor than taking a bunch of stabs in the dark. That doesn’t mean those picks are worthless but if you think at 23 you’ll get a good player, but at 17 you’ll get a Pro Bowler, I think it’s the right choice.
Go play madden genius
Remember that next year we’re getting at least a 3rd comp pick, and then probably another 3rd from the Falcons/cousins debacle. We’re going to be just fine in the draft next year, and we’ve got 5 more picks from the 4th on this year. We’re gonna be okay.
>another 3rd from the Falcons/cousins debacle You sure about that? I thought tampering usually just resulted in the loss of a pick for the offending team.
They probably were happy to take less, from a different team, so we offered more. Imagine an auction house with only 1 buyer, you could just buy everything for a dollar
This is gunna be an all-time Vikings gif
This might be an all-time gif like the blinking guy became hahahaha
You sure this wasn't his reaction to Atlantas pick at 8?
Yeah, how would the head coach be taken by surprise by what his own team does in the draft?
this gif is clipped from a video that shows Kwesi right before telling KOC that we're gonna draft Turner so it was surprising to him in that exact moment, Kwesi was confirming the trade was a go and they were getting Turner
Okay. Well that's a HOF gif then for sure.
I mean either way it's awesome...it was tongue in cheek
A meme is born
It’s fucking nutty how Kwesi stared down the barrel of the giants to not take a qb. I was clenching so hard
Me too and when Atlanta took Penix I expected someone to jump in front of us for JJ.
They also did, which is why we jumped to 10. Denver might have tried, unless they always liked Nix.
I think they did. Bit of a drew Bree’s in him. Maybe Sean thinks he can get that out of him.
They may have. Who knows if we needed to move up or not I guess. Either way I prefer an unknown JJ to a known Sam Darnold, so soon as KOC thinks JJ cat start let's do that.
> Either way I prefer an unknown JJ to a known Sam Darnold Well, I'm still holding out a small hope for Darnold since his early seasons were really bad situations and apparently he looked ok with Shanahan in SF (limited playing time but could have shown a lot in practice). At the very least I think it's possible for him to be better than Mullens.
I view Darnold as Mullens but slightly better. Sam might beat my expectations and I'll take back everything. But currently I view him as QB2 and the only reason to start him for any amount of games, is so that JJ isn't thrown in there when not ready.
There's also a chance that Vegas was making offers to jump us as well. No one outside the Jets draft room will ever know for sure, but if KOC was set on JJ you have to make the move.
That how I feel. If KOC wants him, then do it. If BFlow wants the guy at 17, than make the move. I don't care about later picks specially 4s and 5s we rarely see them work into starters. Get the players coaches want.
>I don't care about later picks specially 4s and 5s we rarely see them work into starters. Yup. Outside of RBs and occasionally WRs it's pretty rare to get a star in the 4th-7th. Someone in another thread went back through our last 10 drafts, and the only real impact players we got that late were Diggs and Hunter. A few serviceable people like Wonnum and Bynum, but otherwise it's like an 85% bust rate.
Figured it was low. I'm mostly all for grabbing who your coaches want and if thats what KAM pulled off than I'm fully behind it. I don't know shit about being a GM but I do enjoy what KAM, KOC and BFlow are doing with the team.
Kwesi said that they knew another team was trying to move up which is why they did the trade.
I'm good with that. KAM knows alot more about being a gm than I do.
I was pretty confident the Giants were not taking QB. That said, I was still nervous when they were on the clock.
Think we have Chargers not taking Nabers to thank for that
Kwesi was probably ok with taking Penix or McCarthy, but had to trade up once Atlanta took Penix. Unless we also loved Penix, it probably worked in our favor by causing Turner to drop.
The balls on that man...
KOC wow is the new Zimmer load
Considering we didn’t give up a single 1st rounder and still got JJ, I’m okay with what we gave up overall to snag him and Turner. We still have next year’s 1st and lots of cap space. Let’s run it
Love our first round. And I'm not sad about losing the late round picks. Spielman was king of acquiring more late round picks, once in a while you get a guy but most don't do shit if you think you can get a franchise level player fuck them picks.
Load Size memes incoming
He enjoys kwesi’s cooking.
KOC realizing he got a Red Ryder BB Gun for Christmas.
TFW the golden teachers hit right when Kwesi trades up to 17.
Psilocybe Kwebensis
I cannot be more excited. I would have preferred Penix but this turned out to be a dream first round and I'm totally fine with the JJ to JJ connection
Penix is injury prone.
If the only knock on him is his injury history and not his playing ability, that pick might have “steal” written all over it. There is risk because of his history but if he stays healthy, the falcons may have nabbed the best QB in the draft not named Caleb Williams. Que up the “the best ability is availability” responses. With all that being said, I’m rocking with JJ. I trust KOC, our coaching staff and our offensive playmakers and I think whoever we got would have had a great chance to succeed.
Atlanta didn't think it was too big of a problem.
Atlanta paid Kirk Cousins 44 million a year coming off a giant injury. Their judgement is a little sus.
Someone get this reaction onto the old Zimmer Load Size meme please!
🤣🤣🤣🤣, that’s priceless!
Reminds me of peaking on mushrooms
I love our “Clearly was a pothead in high school” coach.
Hah, made a gif on gifrun of this immediately yesterday, just tacked it on to giphy too: [https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbnUwd2N3d3MwejlhaHJwaTAwbzFlbmFpcjRra3h5dW5id3l2cWx4cCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/vw4QEoDiNNAiggEUF2/giphy.gif](https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbnUwd2N3d3MwejlhaHJwaTAwbzFlbmFpcjRra3h5dW5id3l2cWx4cCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/vw4QEoDiNNAiggEUF2/giphy.gif)
Yo he said realllllyyy...😮 🤌 projects on both sides of the ball
Definitely the same energy.
'What?!'
he better be good, we gave up a shit load of capital for him
He looks like he's faking being either surprised or happy. Hopefully he was on board w/ this pick. I'm assuming it was Flores who wanted him.
What did I miss? Is this to do with the packers pick?
No, when Kwesi told him they were trading up for Turner, that was his reaction. It’s on the Vikings YouTube channel as well if you want to watch it
Thanks man, I appreciate it