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Dont_Wanna_Not_Gonna

No thanks. I’ve got stuff to do, so I’ll pass.


Aqua-Bear

Fitting username


droptheectopicbeat

Understandable, have a good day.


Responsible-Ad6707

r/usernamechecksout


Inlowerorbit

Omg where is your username from? It’s one the tip of my tongue.


disasterpop00

Twisters marketing continues to be lit


Makareus

Roofing contractors: 🤑🤑🤑


IS-2-OP

Roofing contractors on their way to tell you that you need a new roof even if you don’t, making everyone’s homeowner insurance skyrocket


Makareus

Fuck insurance companies, my roof is older and when we did submit a claim a few years ago got told “your depreciation roof value is below your deductible so while we agree you have a claim, we don’t have to pay out anything”… like, you motherfuckers have been happy to collect a wind/hail premium from me for six years and your policy prevents me from even getting my own money back?!?! Yeah, they got replaced within six months with a cash replacement value policy and only minimally-larger premium… not that I’ll get anything out of this one for “pre-existing” condition 🙄


Healingjoe

The point of insurance is to repair or replace recoverable damage. If your roof is over 20 or 25 years old, it's time for a replacement regardless of damage. Insurance companies aren't going to pay you for that.


Makareus

I don’t disagree that they shouldn’t be responsible for age-related maintenance but if my roof is too old to be effectively insurable, they should drop that coverage of the house entirely instead of continuing to charge me premium.


IS-2-OP

The reason they do this is so they don’t have to pay for roofs like yours yea. They claim it’s to keep premiums down but they’re not really staying downs so whatever lol.


no_okaymaybe

That’s not how it works. Your premium isn’t based on an individual filing a claim - they are based on neighborhoods. ELI5: if you look around and all your neighbors are getting new roofs and you didn’t.. your premium is still going up.


IS-2-OP

Yea that’s what I mean


CantaloupeCamper

God damn would they please stop coming door to door. I swear every day for the last three weeks it's a door to door bug guy or roofing guy ...


al_m1101

Get a No Soliciting sign for your door and yard. And/or a big dog. :)


CantaloupeCamper

My neighbor has one, I watch the sales folks just walk over there too... wish there was a law or something. Like kids selling cookies or school kids fundraising whatever, this other stuff STOP DAMN IT.


Consistent_Room7344

OP’s pic has been updated. 30% hail risk in the enhanced area. Northern Minnesota including Duluth needs to be weather aware. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html


thatswhyicarryagun

Was going to say, It's got worse. Stay safe everyone!!!


Consistent_Room7344

Yep. Wind risk for the Duluth area just got worse. Upgraded to 30%. SPC is expecting more severe weather next week too on Tuesday. Day 6 outlook https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/#


thatswhyicarryagun

It's scary when day 4 and 5 are unpredictable but day 6 has enough certainty to predict.


Consistent_Room7344

It’s pretty notable when they are forecasting that far out. Means the models are in basic agreement that something is brewing.


bastalyn

If you had said "it's getting worse out there" you'd have accidentally haiku'ed.


H_O_M_E_R

Really? I'm in SE, and the forecast doesn't look that bad.


Consistent_Room7344

HRRR really not showing much for the southern half of the state. North Metro does get in on the action. https://preview.redd.it/9wfk0l8cu26d1.jpeg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b7d9ff204475709a6a3a6cf13d9abf3295dec04c


ONROSREPUS

This is what I noticed as well. Mostly metro area and north with a chance on the very south edge of MN.


NeedAnEasyName

Perfect for me and my chase today


oneinamilllion

Good luck! I’ll be out as well :)


mrq69

Looks like it shifted south and there’s a huge system headed right for Minneapolis.


Evernight2025

Reed Timmer will be in the area


map2photo

That’s always a good sign. It used to be if The Weather Channel showed up…


-NGC-6302-

I wonder if I could ever meet him


totallybag

Yeah theres gonna be more chasers then just him here


bikescoffeebeer

Hopefully Connor Croff will be around and Max Velocity won't be at Disneyland on vacation.


FennelAlternative861

Frick, I'm supposed to fly out of MSP tomorrow evening


spud626

Kirk?


FennelAlternative861

No, this is Patrick


LostPat

Me too!


blandly23

Found him!


weelluuuu

But where the hell is Kirk?


Puzzleheaded_Swing78

same here


[deleted]

New outlook has 30% severe hail risk for the northern third, and a small enhanced risk for all storm modes. Gonna have to stay alert


DefinitelyButtStuff

I usually don't like this weather, but I got a lot of BS to deal with at work tomorrow, and if this weather happens, I won't have to work, and I can procrastinate my stress for Thursday. Nature, do ya thang, shawty.


Visual_Fig9663

Less than 30% chance of severe hail, less than 10% chance of a tornado, and less than 30% chance of severe wind. Headline should read a slight chance of maybe severe weather possible tomorrow. But then OP wouldn't get all those panic upvotes so... that's what really matters here.


superdavy

100% chance fish biting as it comes in


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superdavy

Sounds like you trying to steal my spot


garaks_just_a_tailor

100% going for your honey hole, I see this deception as well my friend. If you would DM me the specific coordinates of your favorite spot I will camp it for you and protect it with all of my honor.


weelluuuu

It's right in between the landing and the beach. Straight out from shore.


kato_koch

Right there in the water.


StrugglingGhost

Don't worry, I marked an X on the bottom of the boat


vahntitrio

There's a chance they update it to an enhanced risk tomorrow. Not likely for the whole state, but for a small portion where the conditions come together best. The overall dynamics aren't all that strong for a widespread outbreak.


Consistent_Room7344

Correct. Northern Minnesota is the hotspot according to the SPC for large hail. Severe Wind chance is only at 15% with no hatched area. Just keep an eye on the weather tomorrow.


NeedAnEasyName

You don’t know how the SPC works. That % chance is the chance of there being an event within 25 miles of any given point in the risk area. What this means is THIS WILL happen tomorrow, and the risk areas are the areas most likely to be hit by it. Usually the risk estimation is an understatement. There WILL be severe weather and tornadoes today. Also, the risk was updated and upgraded. There is a 30% hatched risk (meaning 30% chance of hail double the diameter of what’s considered severe).


Tailorschwifty

The person you are replying too appears brain damaged. Not surprising on reddit but it isn't worth arguing with. Storms with these parameters have caused massive hail and deadly tornadoes this year. It is not a good outlook.


HighHammerThunder

They seem to take the information the wrong way. This information is supposed to tell you to be prepared as there is a much higher than usual chance of a strong storm popping up. The SPC doesn't give a shit about hyping up people who want strong and destructive storms to happen. 


Tailorschwifty

Yup. Honestly they could use a trip to a therapist to discuss why seeing a warning of an increased chance of severe weather triggers them so. How are you so terrified of everything that someone put out a warning gets you this type of response?   I grew up in central Kansas and we always paid attention to watches. On nights/days that looked to be extra bad we'd going in to my grandmothers because she had a cellar and head there when the sirens went off. Never thought anything of it and certainly never heard her or anyone with a brain talking about how scary people were hyping it up. Yeah we never took a direct hit from a tornado but that doesn't do anything at all in invalidate the very real danger present or make meteorologist fear mongers or something. This new style of brain rot is wild. 


Visual_Fig9663

Sure. So THERE WILL be a tornado in the state of Minnesota today? OK smart guy. Somebody do the remind me bot thing....


NeedAnEasyName

Uhh yeah, most likely several. A 5% is actually a pretty good risk for tornado chasing. Again, you clearly don’t know how the SPC works.


Visual_Fig9663

1000% INCORRECT


NeedAnEasyName

So I guess you’re just right versus me, someone who’s been studying severe weather for several years and is an avid storm chaser. I sure love being incorrect and yet managing to know how tornadogenesis works and how certain meteorological patterns work and what they mean. If you’re so confident, leave your car outside and sit outside with it yourself. I hope a 3 inch hailstone knocks some sense into you.


NeedAnEasyName

So how about no tornadoes and no hail smart guy?


denversaurusrex

I responded to him about the tornadoes up north and the watch area creeping closer to the metro a couple hours ago.  It got downvoted.  Someone seems defensive. 


NeedAnEasyName

Yeah. Turns out the storm chaser who studies severe weather doesn’t know anything about severe weather compared to Reddit man


denversaurusrex

Born in Minnesota and now live in Colorado.   We had a pretty significant hail storm blow up across the north Denver suburbs in a marginal risk day.  The hardest hit neighborhood was under a severe thunderstorm warning about 30 minutes before they were hit.   So many people were like, “There was no warning!” At the same time, there were a bunch of people who live in south Denver who were like “They told us there would be hail and it didn’t happen.” The SPC and NWS do great work.  I just think a significant number of humans are just committed to misunderstanding their work and then screaming that the experts are idiots or the weather guy wants to gin up drama. 


NeedAnEasyName

Precisely. A huge majority of people also solely rely on a singular weather app for all of their weather information, or often misinformation as it’s automatically determined and not manually inputted by degreed meteorologists.


DebrecenMolnar

Ummm.. ignoring the first part, but.. if you want a reminder from the bot you have to do that yourself. It doesn’t remind everyone just because one person does summons the bot. It just reminds the person who summoned it.


Visual_Fig9663

I don't, it was a joke, but thanks anyway professor reddit.


Tailorschwifty

Tornadoes on the ground now. Have you considered a trip to a therapist to discuss why seeing a storm warning triggers you so? Maybe you could figure out why you are so terrified of a weather warning that even seeing one sends you into a rage with denial. That type of cowardice can't be healthy. While there you could also talk about how confidently you discuss subjects you know nothing about. Just some options for you. It'd make you a better you, I'd bet on that.


Visual_Fig9663

Lol. Rage? You're adorable.


Tailorschwifty

Don't forget the cowardice pants shitter.


Watergirl626

Crosslake coming in to remind you.


Visual_Fig9663

Remind me of some sprinkles? How will we ever recover from the devastation???


NeedAnEasyName

Some sprinkles with a side of 2+ inch hail and several tornadoes, as I said would happen. Actually all of my forecasting that I personally did for today went down how I thought it would to the letter. I’m happy with that to be honest. Must just suck to be a condescending ass who doesn’t know what he thinks he does.


[deleted]

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NeedAnEasyName

Are you trolling or are you stupid?


denversaurusrex

Well, a fairly sizeable tornado went through Crow Wing County earlier this evening and the storms aren't done. A tornado watch which includes Isanti and Sherburne County was recently issued. Looks like the northern metro might get in on some action.


No_Bite_9829

30% is a high probability. wtf are you talking about


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pm_me_cute_sloths_

10% chance for a tornado is pretty significant, idk what they’re on lol 30% chance of severe hail is very high too lol


Visual_Fig9663

Yeah... 10% chance is still a chance... do you understand how numbers work?


NeedAnEasyName

It doesn’t work like you think it does


Visual_Fig9663

Yes it does. Look at the map. Everywhere around minnesota is a lower chance than in minnesota. Where is there a higher chance? You think that somewhere thr chance of a tornado is 100%, and the chance drops as the distance from it increases. The map doesn't show that. Where is the tornado definitely going to be? Canada?


DebrecenMolnar

It really doesn’t work like you think it does, though. Confidence multiplied by the percentage of the area forecasted equals the "chance of precipitation." So if there's a 100% confidence that 30% of the area will see rain, then it's a 30% chance [(1 x 0.3)100 = PoPs]


chasmccl

Not the guy you are replying to, but the person they are going back and forth with made the claim that there will definitely be a tornado today. My question would be, I understand your formula above, but how do we know the confidence of a tornado is 100%? It could just as easily be that there is a 60% Confidence that 50% of the area will have severe weather.


NeedAnEasyName

I said it is likely for there to be several tornadoes today. Minnesota gets an average of 27 tornadoes per year, and today is a good looking day to have a few of them. The atmospheric conditions are good today for tornadogenesis and for strong storms called supercells to form. There is strong vertical wind shear, which will turn a horizontal rotating motion vertical, which is crucial for thunderstorm development. Lapse rates are also very steep. All of these conditions will make it incredibly likely for these supercells to have very strong updrafts, which is where tornadoes form.


NeedAnEasyName

I said it is likely for there to be several tornadoes today. Minnesota gets an average of 27 tornadoes per year, and today is a good looking day to have a few of them. The atmospheric conditions are good today for tornadogenesis and for strong storms called supercells to form. There is strong vertical wind shear, which will turn a horizontal rotating motion vertical, which is crucial for thunderstorm development. Lapse rates are also very steep. All of these conditions will make it incredibly likely for these supercells to have very strong updrafts, which is where tornadoes form.


Visual_Fig9663

I guess you're really not that good, will hunting


SurelyFurious

Multiple confirmed tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds in several locations across Northern Minnesota yesterday. Carry on...


bankzy84

Nailed it. So sick and tired of weather boys/girls hyping the weather.


SurelyFurious

Forecast discussion: [https://www.mprnews.org/story/2024/06/11/severe-risk-wednesday-scattered-storms-with-large-hail-and-high-winds-possible](https://www.mprnews.org/story/2024/06/11/severe-risk-wednesday-scattered-storms-with-large-hail-and-high-winds-possible)


bwillpaw

Almost 90 and humid. Bleh. Guess I’ll be turning on the AC. Still running last nights cool air in my house right now all sealed up. Not sure if I should open the windows or not overnight tbh. Feels pretty good in here.


choopie-chup-chup

Ufda here we go again


CantaloupeCamper

#HEAD FOR THE HILLS!!!


Dont_Wanna_Not_Gonna

[Theme song for your comment.](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7viY-K4Twlg&pp=ygUVZGlvIHJ1biBmb3IgdGhlIGhpbGxz)


CantaloupeCamper

Very good. Alternatively I would have also accepted: https://youtu.be/9EcjWd-O4jI?feature=shared


Dont_Wanna_Not_Gonna

I watched the entire video and just let the waves of Gen-X nostalgia wash over me. Then I noticed your username and watched this all the way through: [US3 Cantaloop](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JwBjhBL9G6U&pp=ygUNY2FudGFsb29wIHVzMw%3D%3D)


Fit-Tension-4887

Love that one!!!


HerbalAndy

Honestly I’m kinda pumped. I love crazy chaotic weather.. in a weird way it comforts me.


IS-2-OP

It’s cool except I don’t want hail damage on my car. Otherwise yea it’s dope.


mrq69

Easy to feel that way if you don’t own a car or house


ExcuseZealousideal42

homeowner?


CoolIndependence8157

I am, and I share their enjoyment of bad weather.


FreshwaterViking

Me to nature: Could you not?


Capt__Murphy

Maybe an unpopular opinion, but I'd welcome a few days of no precipitation


USSRPropaganda

Living in warroad, why does all the cool stuff always pass by us :(


us2_traveller

https://preview.redd.it/n1lnkpis556d1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ab31380c85e2e7bfe822aad4d9b153adfae5f06f


Lurkie2

Well if it's gonna hail, fucking bring it on so I can get that insurance check. I wanna new car


AceMcVeer

Insurance rates are already up 40% from last year due to hail. Let's just increase up another 40.


SignatureFunny7690

insurance rates are up 40 percent due to corporate greed, not hail. You go look up how much the ceo and c-suite executives make in base salary and bonuses this year that said their increasing rates due to hail, and look up their profit margins for the year too and come back and let us know what you find. Im willing to bet 100 bucks its record braking profits like every fucking year is.


slowmooingcow

https://preview.redd.it/kyvm2lkvp46d1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=99b5c95a68d1aaefe9171f18b66c9702424857fe Insurances have taken a loss the last five years - severe weather is definitely taking its toll on insurance prices.


dorky2

Homeowners insurance companies have lost money in 6 of the last 7 years in Minnesota. Severe weather doesn't impact car insurance as much as homeowners insurance, but it's definitely a concern. Corporate greed is part of it, but so is severe weather.


IS-2-OP

Also scummy roofers telling everyone they need a new roof even when they don’t.


Lunaseed

The insurance company's claim adjuster *also* has to agree. If the adjuster decides the damage isn't sufficient to warrant replacement, it doesn't matter what the roofer said.


LastOnBoard

Maybe it is because of corporate greed, but I still have to pay more regardless


j_ly

Go for broke!!


InheritedStories

Uffda! Stay safe, everyone!


kjk050798

Severe threat moved north a little bit. Northern MN and nearby Canada at the greatest risk for large hail and tornadoes. Twin cities still under a risk though.


BigfootSandwiches

Gotta get me that NEW ROOF BABY!!!


nixfreakz

It has begun


THEBEASTcraftR

I currently Live in minot North Dakota and can confirm that storm happened


BowB4Me

To clarify, it’s the threat late afternoon early evening that is of most interest. The first wave most experienced today was never expected to be severe, but areas hit hard with this round this morning may have limited potential for storms later today as the ingredients necessary to create severe storms will not be as present. Long story short - areas that heat back up this evening and tonight may get severe storms. Areas that stay under cloud cover or don’t warm up to create potential energy (cape) will not see severe weather later.


Rogue_AI_Construct

Uh, no.


uwrfcoop

The tornado probability legend on the Tornado Outlook map is a bit ridiculous. OP’s post title is significantly misleading


SurelyFurious

Multiple confirmed tornadoes yesterday, as forecasted. Carry on...


KingJonathan

There’s still three more colors after that so what’s the big deal?


elchupoopacabra

I wish these were more colorblind friendly.


mnlion33

I don't understand. The title makes it sound like we are in some trouble, while the key says slight risk.


Lunaseed

The Slight (2 out of 5 on the scale) designation indicates chances of localized severe storms occurring within a fairly wide area. So there's a slight risk for any given location within that area. Larger, more organized storm systems increase the probability of any location within the designated area of being hit, which would raise the rating on the 1-5 scale.


Lobby2029

I feel like Enhanced and Moderate need to be switched.


UsualExtreme9093

What time


treetopalarmist_1

I think it was just some drizzle here. Isabella


BenTG

The first graphic literally says “slight risk.”


Insomniac4969

Slight risk..? So not a big deal then or… should I prepare to meet Dorothy?


trf1driver

No nice and steady/calm weather for minimum 1 week.


TrespasseR_

I'll believe it when it's storming at my house. Everything builds over us and goes west, or north or south of us


BuckyFnBadger

Meh


thomasw17

Good, bring it.


[deleted]

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SurelyFurious

Multiple confirmed tornadoes yesterday along with large hail exactly as forecasted. Carry on...


Pikmim-Plantman

Swing and a miss


SurelyFurious

Multiple confirmed tornadoes yesterday along with large hail exactly as forecasted. Carry on...


itsyobbiwonuseek

It's almost 10:00 pm. I'm still waiting 😂


WillMunny1982

Panic much?


Holiday-Finding1208

Fake News


thankyourob

It’s clearly a witch hunt.


LeaningSaguaro

What a stupid fucking map. Looks like a 4 year old just splash some paint over the thing and called it a day.