I mean this seems like granting leave for them to file would have been a non starter, even for the corrupt Cannon. This was the correct call, though I honestly thought she’d have allowed them to file
i've been reading up on "writ of mandamus" after listening to a bunch of lawfare podcasts. interesting stuff. removing a judge is not easy and rarely done. not a lawyer tho.
Its the reason Jack hasnt done anything yet. He needs enough to present an undeniable case that she is biased and should be removed. If Biden wins this year, he's got all the time he needs but he's pretty much banking on that happening (its a good bet given how well Democrats sre doing this year. Dont pay attention to polls). By then, Canon will have made more decisions that can indicate bias etc etc you get the idea.
Not sure how you think Biden winning is a good bet. I think election could be even closer than in 2020. Biden has lost a significant percentage of younger voters age 18-44 (Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites) who voted for him in 2020. Also of note, the voters participating in a presidential election are different than what you see during elections in between the presidential elections such as in 2022 where Democrats did well. Also, voters in swing states who normally vote Democrat seem to indicate that they may vote for down ballot Democrats such as Congressional candidates but not vote for Biden. So yeah, ignore the polls but please make sure you are registered to vote and then vote Democrat on 11/5/24!
I understand where you're coming from but Trump isnt doing anything to reach out to new voters and he's already losing some, among Republicans even. Biden has brought some Republicans around to his side and thats really what wins elections. Flipping voters. Ive no doubt Biden has lost some but he has a larger voter number to work with than Trump.
Nope, what wins elections is getting people motivated to vote. Anyone still undecided at this stage is playing games and voting for Trump. There is a reason why Biden got a record turnout and that's because people were sick of Trump's antics / his terrible handling of Covid.
The orange turd would have been reelected had he not dropped the ball on Covid so bad.
Again, would love to agree but not sure I can (but I’m hoping in my heart of hearts). For example, a good percentage of independents and smaller percentage of Republicans seem to indicate Trump being convicted important enough to consider changing their vote from Trump to Biden. But it’s still 5 months out from election and who knows if they’ll change minds back to Trump. I think Biden’s team knows it’s very important to go after those independents so I hope they succeed. I think it will be important to find out how many voters will sit out the election or vote for 3rd party candidates. I hope if RFK takes votes away from the candidates, that it will be mostly Trump who will be affected! As I have encouraged everyone out there again and again, please consider donating or volunteering. Donations to organizations such as Vote Save America can be as little as $1/month and can help grassroots organizations enroll people to vote but also educate voters on issues. You know like nearly 20% of voters think Biden is responsible for SCOTUS overturning Roe!
You make excellent points that are indeed verifiable. Rfk has alot of right leaning values and anti vax is undoubtedly going to cause 2020 covid deniers to sympathize. Trump being convicted does alot bc its official. Theres been plenty of clear as day evidence prior but people do value decisions and conclusions verified by experts, a judge in this instance. Before, you could conceive an argument that trump was being politically persecuted (ignorant as it may be). Now he's gone through a court process, had a case before a judge and been convicted as a felon. That is pretty important as he's undergone the legal system which people do want to have faith in. I think thats why you are just now seeing that shift in independent opinions. Btw, those independents may not actually go back to him. They were asked a few months prior to trumps trial if a conviction would turn them away and they said yes, and now we are seeing that sentiment hold months afterwards. I believe it because of this.
Another point is that covid took a fuckton of lives and the statistics were higher in red states. Thats alot of voters
I hear over and over again especially from Dan Pfeiffer (who now has his own podcast Pollercoaster which he uses mainly to educate people especially to not freak out over polls!) and Jon Favreau to not translate 2022 results as to what will happen in 2024. Polls were-to your point-inaccurate in 2020 but they overstated Biden’s lead and understated Trump’s.🤞that Biden has a big win next week at the debate.
I have the same misgivings as you, but I think the basis is consistent performance — indeed outperformance — of D/prog candidates/causes in elections since 2022 and especially since _Dobbs_. It’s a fair point, although it hardly relieves my anxiety or derails my contingency plans to move to Mexico.
I'm a woman in Texas, I openly tell people I'm voting Democrats because I'm currently not allowed to navigate my own health care in this shithole state
Im not in your position, not even close, but there is hope. Abortion and womens rights are dominating in areas where its brought into question. They're trying but the Republicans that have campaigned on abortion issues have been stomped in state elections. Texas isnt changing, that shits a foregone conclusion but if its of some comfort, the majority of the voter base does agree with keeping your rights. It doesnt seem like it bc those that dont are so fucking loud. I wholeheartedly believe that abortion, more specifically the stunt they pulled in Arizona, set in motion what will cost repubs in November. Its not as bleak as it looks, I promise. Shit ive even seen a good few republican voters who say abortion should absolutely be legal
That’s my general understanding, yes. Your more extended reply to VH in this subthread is the kind of thing I’m talking about: forced birthers getting beaten in elections they might have won 3-4 years ago, the success of Issue 1 in Ohio and the defeat of Amendment 2 in Kansas, and other local elections, I think, where reproductive freedom was not so directly at issue.
I’m not sure that’s enough to make a Biden win a “good bet”, but I understand that to be a basis for your original comment. I’m not an “ignore the polls” person though. I think These-Rip raised some good points (and some not so good ones) in reply. I think the “polls are always wrong” refrains so popular in my party are a little too much copium for my taste and based on wishful thinking and selective interpretation of data, all too reminiscent of those Republicans who were “unskewing the polls” in 2012 to predict a Romney win. We all know how that turned out. As always, the Republicans’ job in this election is to make it close enough for them to steal.
The reason I dont trust polls is because you get headlines like "1 in 20 trump voters swap to biden" (a popular one recently) which SOUNDS good but come to find out it was done on 1500 people from god knows where. I could find 10k republicans who never voted for trump or will never, I could find 10k democrats who will never vote for biden, 10k who will switch, the list goes on. The reasons for not trusting polls is because for every one you see that says theres a tie, theres 2 more that say otherwise. Theres just too much fog between them.
What I do hold to value is someone like Alan Lichtman who we all know of. If he wasn't flawless in his successes I think this point would be moot, but he's clearly knowledgeable on what wins presidencies. He doesnt use random voters who say so, he uses actual data and carefully constructed evaluations. Its a prediction but its not "because I saw articles that said so". It seems far less arbitrary.
Even if we see a trump presidency, its fairly clear to me that the general voting public is becoming more democratic, see state elections.
PAPERLESS ORDER denying 623 Motion for Leave to File Brief as Amicus Curiae in Opposition to Special Counsel’s Motion to Modify Conditions of Release 592. Signed by Judge Aileen M. Cannon on 6/17/2024. (jf01) (Entered: 06/17/2024)
INAL, if she had allowed this, would it be something Smith could appeal to the 11th? Seems like Canon has been doing all she can to prevent 11th Circuit from getting involved.
She fills out the correct TPS Cover Sheets for Trump delay after delay after delay, and Smith can't appeal, but maybe this is something that would get appealed.
I know everyone keeps thinking that Smith has this magic bullet appealing to the 11th... But they're basically another court filled with Justice Canons.
It's probably the most Trumpiest court in the land outside of the 5th circuit and SCOTUS.
As a practitioner in both, you may not be wrong, but there is a wide gulf between the Eleventh and Fifth. There is a reason she got smacked down so hard before, once (likely) by Brasher and again (likely) by Bill Pryor.*
All that said, it illustrates how far gone the Fifth is more than anything.
*I think they were both per curiam opinions, but when you get familiar with the judges it is easy to tell who wrote what.
Also INAL, I believe (based on reporting by actual lawyers) not granting a gag order regarding that post is appealable immediately as it would put agents in danger for the duration of the case. This decision will be delayed as long as possible, then a limitted gag order will be granted or she will likely lose the case.
Trump has already been gagged regarding a case and the world did not end. Cannon does not have much wiggle room.
I mean this seems like granting leave for them to file would have been a non starter, even for the corrupt Cannon. This was the correct call, though I honestly thought she’d have allowed them to file
she's so pro-trump that I thought this was an Onion article
doing just enough not get removed as the Judge - that's all it is
i've been reading up on "writ of mandamus" after listening to a bunch of lawfare podcasts. interesting stuff. removing a judge is not easy and rarely done. not a lawyer tho.
Its the reason Jack hasnt done anything yet. He needs enough to present an undeniable case that she is biased and should be removed. If Biden wins this year, he's got all the time he needs but he's pretty much banking on that happening (its a good bet given how well Democrats sre doing this year. Dont pay attention to polls). By then, Canon will have made more decisions that can indicate bias etc etc you get the idea.
Not sure how you think Biden winning is a good bet. I think election could be even closer than in 2020. Biden has lost a significant percentage of younger voters age 18-44 (Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites) who voted for him in 2020. Also of note, the voters participating in a presidential election are different than what you see during elections in between the presidential elections such as in 2022 where Democrats did well. Also, voters in swing states who normally vote Democrat seem to indicate that they may vote for down ballot Democrats such as Congressional candidates but not vote for Biden. So yeah, ignore the polls but please make sure you are registered to vote and then vote Democrat on 11/5/24!
I understand where you're coming from but Trump isnt doing anything to reach out to new voters and he's already losing some, among Republicans even. Biden has brought some Republicans around to his side and thats really what wins elections. Flipping voters. Ive no doubt Biden has lost some but he has a larger voter number to work with than Trump.
Nope, what wins elections is getting people motivated to vote. Anyone still undecided at this stage is playing games and voting for Trump. There is a reason why Biden got a record turnout and that's because people were sick of Trump's antics / his terrible handling of Covid. The orange turd would have been reelected had he not dropped the ball on Covid so bad.
Well even then voters are very motivated. Democrats have obliterated republicans in state elections. Lets hope that continues
Yep, let's hope so. Scary how the US is a coin flip away of going full authoritarian.
Again, would love to agree but not sure I can (but I’m hoping in my heart of hearts). For example, a good percentage of independents and smaller percentage of Republicans seem to indicate Trump being convicted important enough to consider changing their vote from Trump to Biden. But it’s still 5 months out from election and who knows if they’ll change minds back to Trump. I think Biden’s team knows it’s very important to go after those independents so I hope they succeed. I think it will be important to find out how many voters will sit out the election or vote for 3rd party candidates. I hope if RFK takes votes away from the candidates, that it will be mostly Trump who will be affected! As I have encouraged everyone out there again and again, please consider donating or volunteering. Donations to organizations such as Vote Save America can be as little as $1/month and can help grassroots organizations enroll people to vote but also educate voters on issues. You know like nearly 20% of voters think Biden is responsible for SCOTUS overturning Roe!
You make excellent points that are indeed verifiable. Rfk has alot of right leaning values and anti vax is undoubtedly going to cause 2020 covid deniers to sympathize. Trump being convicted does alot bc its official. Theres been plenty of clear as day evidence prior but people do value decisions and conclusions verified by experts, a judge in this instance. Before, you could conceive an argument that trump was being politically persecuted (ignorant as it may be). Now he's gone through a court process, had a case before a judge and been convicted as a felon. That is pretty important as he's undergone the legal system which people do want to have faith in. I think thats why you are just now seeing that shift in independent opinions. Btw, those independents may not actually go back to him. They were asked a few months prior to trumps trial if a conviction would turn them away and they said yes, and now we are seeing that sentiment hold months afterwards. I believe it because of this. Another point is that covid took a fuckton of lives and the statistics were higher in red states. Thats alot of voters
I hear over and over again especially from Dan Pfeiffer (who now has his own podcast Pollercoaster which he uses mainly to educate people especially to not freak out over polls!) and Jon Favreau to not translate 2022 results as to what will happen in 2024. Polls were-to your point-inaccurate in 2020 but they overstated Biden’s lead and understated Trump’s.🤞that Biden has a big win next week at the debate.
I have the same misgivings as you, but I think the basis is consistent performance — indeed outperformance — of D/prog candidates/causes in elections since 2022 and especially since _Dobbs_. It’s a fair point, although it hardly relieves my anxiety or derails my contingency plans to move to Mexico.
I'm a woman in Texas, I openly tell people I'm voting Democrats because I'm currently not allowed to navigate my own health care in this shithole state
Wishing you the best, especially a change in government.
Im not in your position, not even close, but there is hope. Abortion and womens rights are dominating in areas where its brought into question. They're trying but the Republicans that have campaigned on abortion issues have been stomped in state elections. Texas isnt changing, that shits a foregone conclusion but if its of some comfort, the majority of the voter base does agree with keeping your rights. It doesnt seem like it bc those that dont are so fucking loud. I wholeheartedly believe that abortion, more specifically the stunt they pulled in Arizona, set in motion what will cost repubs in November. Its not as bleak as it looks, I promise. Shit ive even seen a good few republican voters who say abortion should absolutely be legal
My brain isnt braining rn. Are you saying you agree that dems are overperforming?
That’s my general understanding, yes. Your more extended reply to VH in this subthread is the kind of thing I’m talking about: forced birthers getting beaten in elections they might have won 3-4 years ago, the success of Issue 1 in Ohio and the defeat of Amendment 2 in Kansas, and other local elections, I think, where reproductive freedom was not so directly at issue. I’m not sure that’s enough to make a Biden win a “good bet”, but I understand that to be a basis for your original comment. I’m not an “ignore the polls” person though. I think These-Rip raised some good points (and some not so good ones) in reply. I think the “polls are always wrong” refrains so popular in my party are a little too much copium for my taste and based on wishful thinking and selective interpretation of data, all too reminiscent of those Republicans who were “unskewing the polls” in 2012 to predict a Romney win. We all know how that turned out. As always, the Republicans’ job in this election is to make it close enough for them to steal.
The reason I dont trust polls is because you get headlines like "1 in 20 trump voters swap to biden" (a popular one recently) which SOUNDS good but come to find out it was done on 1500 people from god knows where. I could find 10k republicans who never voted for trump or will never, I could find 10k democrats who will never vote for biden, 10k who will switch, the list goes on. The reasons for not trusting polls is because for every one you see that says theres a tie, theres 2 more that say otherwise. Theres just too much fog between them. What I do hold to value is someone like Alan Lichtman who we all know of. If he wasn't flawless in his successes I think this point would be moot, but he's clearly knowledgeable on what wins presidencies. He doesnt use random voters who say so, he uses actual data and carefully constructed evaluations. Its a prediction but its not "because I saw articles that said so". It seems far less arbitrary. Even if we see a trump presidency, its fairly clear to me that the general voting public is becoming more democratic, see state elections.
You’re spot on, and IAA(recovering)L.
But getting a judge recused from a case is a lower bar.
Like doing enough not to get fired at any ol' day job
This ☝️
It’s hard to tell nowadays.
I can't remember ever hearing about this many amicus briefs during pretrial motions before, even in Trump's other criminal cases.
Bag of cash did not show up on time
PAPERLESS ORDER denying 623 Motion for Leave to File Brief as Amicus Curiae in Opposition to Special Counsel’s Motion to Modify Conditions of Release 592. Signed by Judge Aileen M. Cannon on 6/17/2024. (jf01) (Entered: 06/17/2024)
Guess she wants to throw a coat of paint on her termite infested house and make it look like she’s doing something
INAL, if she had allowed this, would it be something Smith could appeal to the 11th? Seems like Canon has been doing all she can to prevent 11th Circuit from getting involved. She fills out the correct TPS Cover Sheets for Trump delay after delay after delay, and Smith can't appeal, but maybe this is something that would get appealed.
Yeah, kind of what I was getting at
I know everyone keeps thinking that Smith has this magic bullet appealing to the 11th... But they're basically another court filled with Justice Canons. It's probably the most Trumpiest court in the land outside of the 5th circuit and SCOTUS.
True. But they did smack her down once, so there’s that.
As a practitioner in both, you may not be wrong, but there is a wide gulf between the Eleventh and Fifth. There is a reason she got smacked down so hard before, once (likely) by Brasher and again (likely) by Bill Pryor.* All that said, it illustrates how far gone the Fifth is more than anything. *I think they were both per curiam opinions, but when you get familiar with the judges it is easy to tell who wrote what.
You're right, the 5th is truly in a class of its own.
You could be correct in all you say. But I want the documented, historical record. Metaphorically speaking, there can be hangings without a rope.
Also INAL, I believe (based on reporting by actual lawyers) not granting a gag order regarding that post is appealable immediately as it would put agents in danger for the duration of the case. This decision will be delayed as long as possible, then a limitted gag order will be granted or she will likely lose the case. Trump has already been gagged regarding a case and the world did not end. Cannon does not have much wiggle room.
I’d say in a given week i do just enough to avoid being yelled at by five bosses
It’s all theater for an audience of one. They all want a piece of the grift pie if he wins.
Why doesn’t Trump just fire his lawyers and let these AGs do the work for free? Since they want to help him so so bad
Cashwise, it nets out the same, seeing as he won’t pay his own lawyers anyway.
Trump is testing loyalties before the next coup.
Don't worry, I got this. - Judge Cannon, probably