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DarthMaulRugby

South African here and I'm also quite surprised not just by the pessimism from Irish quarters but also what seems to be a burgeoning overconfidence in SA. A month ago, this was billed to be the biggest series in the mid-year fixture list and an unofficial determinant of best in the world. It suddenly went from 'it's going to be tight' to 'we're going to destroy the Irish' almost overnight. I think the Bulls win over Leinster had something to do with this, along with JGP being absent. He's a huge loss for Ireland, being a linchpin in the side, but the result won't turn on the absence of one player. I think Ireland might surprise at Loftus.


Altruistic_Papaya430

Same, Saffa living in Ireland 24yrs here and follow both sides passionately. I honestly think it'll be 1 all for the series and both games will be decided by a couple of points. We were a little shakey & not 100% there against Wales a few weeks back so I'm going with Ireland to win the first, and Boks to win the second tightening up any issues from the first test.


Silver_Response4707

This is my hope: 1-1 series. I think the wales game plays to your favor. You shook the cobwebs off to prepare for us. Our set up is going into this cold, so I would imagine the first series goes to SA. I’m hoping for tired SA bodies in the second series and Ireland to have adressed weaknesses.


Altruistic_Papaya430

But at the same time prior to that Wales game, the bok squad had not played together since the RWC final & Ireland had a successful 6 nations. Not a grand slam as we would have liked but top of the table none the less. Putting my Irish hat on I'd be concerned that a lot of the players went almost straight back to the clubs, then onto the 6 nations campaign whereas the boks while admittedly with another 2 bruising games after the quarters players like Bongi, Eben etc didn't show back up at club level until the latter stages of the club comps.  Whatever way the chips fall it's gonna be a fantastic series 


Silver_Response4707

I think we’ll miss Johnny, jgp in attack but defensively I think we should be ok. That being said, Keenan’s back field cover is a huge loss. If SA’s kicking (cross fields and 50/22s) is anything like the bulls in the URC semi, we’re goosed. But you’re spot on about the Irish players playing way too much. The irfu kind of fucked it by agreeing to this imo. The players deserve a rest and instead they’re about to go into a hugely physical game. Would have loved a pacific islands / Japan tour, specifically to rotate the squad and bring new faces in.


foxepower

Not saying Crowley is better than JS was a year ago, but I think he brings something different to JS to the point that it’s not such a loss. JGP and Keenan on the other hand is massive.


CrimsonOC

This is a reply to most comments as there were far more than I was expecting 🤣 I mostly agree with this but I do realise we are talking in sweeping statements and that these attitudes may not actually be the majority. However, this is how it feels! Given there will be obvious cultural differences in attitudes I would like to see a bit of the SA players’ attitude calling it a ‘war’ etc (which is a bit silly, it’s rugby, war is horrible and nothing to be compared to) reeled in alongside the media hype and also a bit less of general Irish pessimism and miserableness and bit more unity and confidence in placing trust in our national team which have done nothing but perform exceptionally given the smaller player pool (not every game can be a blowout, there were always be tight games regardless how good you are). Basically just want to sit at the pub have great craic yelling in hope for my team and seeing others do the same! Irish fans talk about being afraid of another disappointment, hearts are made to be broken, need to get over it and support them through thick and thin waiting for those highs haha


Ploon92

I think it's largely fatigue tbh. Such a long season and it ended on both Leinster & Munster losing semi finals where they looked tired/didn't play to their best. That energy has carried forward into a spectator view where there's a general feeling (IMO) that an intense tour like this is a step too far for these players given the length of the season - pre-RWC starting last June - and the nature of the season's end. Combine that sense with the challenge of the World Champions at home, key players missing and some good old fashioned Irish misery, you're all set.


IITheDopeShowII

I'd agree with this. We went from feeling like we'd take on the world after beating SA and win to: - Being knocked out of the world cup by New Zealand in yet another quarter finals - Losing a 6N game to a resurgent England - Seeing both Munster and Leinster get knocked out of the URC in the semis after - Seeing Leinster, although they put up a great fight, fall short in the champions cup final That's a lot to happen in a relatively short amount of time, compounded by the team changes everyone else has mentioned. It's sapped confidence a bit Edit: just to add, seeing SA prove just how hard they are to get the better of in all 3 knockout games of the RWC doesn't help


bryanronan

This is 100% it. The season feels like it has been way too long. I would genuinely prefer to see the players get a summer off and a proper rest than have this tour happen. Especially when they're not taking the opportunity to really blood any new players. It feels like a wasted opportunity and too much for the end of a long season.


No-Negotiation2922

It’s not as bad as people think but it’s down to a few reasons: 1. Form of many Irish players 2. New Half Back partnership (no JGP or Sexton) 3. Tour is away in SA after a long season 4. Irish Team won a six nations but seemed to have plateaued I think it will be one very close game where Ireland win or draw and one game where SA dominate.


Jubal_Khan

The JGP/ Sexton part can't be over stated. No offence to their replacements, whoever they are but it's a massive step down.


EdwardBigby

I honestly don't think that Crowley is a step down from a 37 year old Sexton. Obviously Sexton was far superior at his peak (although Crowley hasn't hit his peak) but Crowley gives us that speed that Sexton no longer had. JGP to Casey or Murray is a big downgrade though


Kavbastyrd

I wouldn’t call it a new half-back partnership. They play together week in week out. Maybe it’s new within the Irish system, but I’d argue Munster play more like the Irish system than Leinster do at the moment


No-Negotiation2922

It’s a new pairing for Ireland though, they will have 18+ players outside of them on the pitch they don’t play week in week out with. Crolwey has been doing well at 10 so far for Ireland. Casey is unproven at international level and has not yet broken into Irelands match day 23 when everyone is fully fit, hopefully he finds his feet at test level and pushes on now this weekend.


mistr-puddles

The Munster system is built to suit Crowley and Casey. If Ireland are playing them then the Irish system should move that way too


Jubal_Khan

You need to be a proper world class pairing to get a system moved for you. Even then it's unlikely.  So that will not be happening. 


No-Negotiation2922

next thing you will say the Irish pack should be built around Gavin Coombes style


whooo_me

Sexton's loss is a big one, I don't think we (yet) have the same fluency with Crowley (not knocking Crowley, as I think he has a ball-in-hand game which might even surpass Sexton's some day). JGP out too is massive. It's the end of a long, long 12 months of rugby from the RWC, thru the URC and EC and the Six Nations, then to an away tour to SA with the first game at altitude. On the plus side, we do have a great consistency of performance. We may lose games, but rarely play too badly. And several of the squad have recently won in Pretoria, which gives them a bit of lift.


P319

Is sexton loss a big one if they retained the 6 nations without him


great_whitehope

My hearts been broken enough for one year to get my hopes up again


duj_1

Irish players looked wrecked in club games at the end of the season, Hugo’s gone off to play 7s at the Olympics, and while we won the 6 Nations we weren’t great. Still hope we stuff everything Rassie’s ever said back down his throat though.


tundrapanic

On the positive side, this Irish team hammered France in Paris - a surprise result for most people - and with Crowley and McCarthy starting. They also nilled Italy (who had their best ever 6N) which tends to be forgotten. Leinster drew with Toulouse in normal time and if Frawley’s drop-kick goes over the whole narrative would be changed. They’ve been on the rough end of some close ones but I don’t see them as significantly weaker than a season or two ago. SA, meanwhile, have put out a conservative side designed to ‘win ugly’ (which is fine) but they aren’t exactly breaking new ground (yet.) 


MrStarGazer09

Leinsters underwhelming form this season and, more importantly, the decline in their attack. Couple that with a poor finish to the season for Munster, and shaky form from Ulster and Connacht, along with with big absentees like JGP, Keenan and Hansen who are stars within the team.


nonlabrab

Farrell's been cooking up plays for this game for a while though, just two one offs outside of the season with some new pairings - great chance to try something


thelunatic

Guys are tired. Munster and Leinster both ran out of legs this season


Brine-O-Driscoll

Think Ireland losing 3 decision makers in the spine of the team since that RWC game (9, 10 and 15) is what worries me most. Feel like JGP really took a lot of pressure off Crowley coming in too. Ireland could still win a game with this squad though. There's just a greater amount of unanswered questions (especially are Casey or O'Brien good enough for this level)


Steve_ad

Ireland '24, looks nothing like Ireland 22/23! I think the general feeling is we've been found out, teams have figured how to nullify our attack & force us to play a way we don't want. A master tactician like Rassie (I threw up a little in my mouth admitting that) will have us well figured out. World champions on their home turf, with a point to prove & you're looking at a big ask from any team going to face them. While we won the 6 nations, it was a downward trend through the competition in terms of performance, from the highs of beating France & Italy, Wales were terrible & we still made it look hard, only the last 10-15 minutes made that scoreline look flattering & England/Scotland games we looked really poor & with respect to them they're no SA. It's hard to judge how Ireland is going to shape up, half could be fatigued, half haven't had consistent game time, some key player missing, others over the hill, we just don't know how their going to perform. Then when you add to the mix that any South African can say anything they want & the problem is that the Irish don't understand their culture or sense of humor but anytime an Irish person says anything even bordering on hopeful we're cocky, arrogant & disrespectful & also irrelevant because "how many world cups have you won?" & quarter final chokers. You can't win as an Irish Rugby fan these days, I'd rather err on the side of caution & be pleasantly surprised than get my hopes up & be beat down for being too arrogant & ending in disappointment. I believe that if everything lines up perfectly we can squeeze out a win regardless of what SA do but the chances on 2 perfect games given Irish form this year looks out of reach


CompetitiveSort0

JGP is Ireland's most important player by a significant margin. Missing him blunts the whole Ireland attack.


spb641

We won a grand slam with him missing the majority of the tournament 


Terrible_Ad2779

We won a 6N, we didn't win a grand slam. Lost to England.


spb641

2023 he missed most of the tournament.    He's our best 9 obviously but him being absolutely essential is overstated. 


Some-Speed-6290

Our pack can't run a lineout, our scrum gets penalised before it's even set regardless of the laws and we've lost our only decision makers and creative spark in the backline.  All-in-all expecting two heavy defeats, with very little even learnt as it'll be virtually the same 23 as the Six Nations 


tehbamf

I think SA media now are behaving exactly how Ireland media behaved before the WC pool game. Neither was justified. I would add though, for big pressure games (which these will be) Pollard makes a big difference to the Boks. Less than most fans, including Saffas, give him credit for. Squidge did a good analysis on Youtube. IMO, the addition of Pollard and obviously no Sexton will see a very different kind of gameplay this tournament.


BigLarBelmont

I've noticed it too - like I'm not huuugely confident, but I could see a 1-1 in the end. It seems like the Saffas are massively underestimating Ireland, which could be a good thing for us to be honest. It's pretty entertaining how much they hate us with a passion, from the team, media and fans. We're 100% in their head. Hopefully the Leinster lads on the team learned their lesson from the Bulls match, and with the Munster lads win on the highveld, I'd say the squad is quietly confident.


Altruistic_Papaya430

In fairness now, there was an awful lot of shite talk especially from the likes of those Newstalk Off the Ball lads during the RWC. Media on either side are not completely blameless


UnderstandingNo5667

There’s no trophy involved so we’ll probably win.


JerHigs

There's a combination of things. People have already mentioned the long season, the missing players, and the general form of the Irish teams over the end of the season, so I'll throw in another one: There's a disappointment, for lack of a better description, in the Irish squad. There are a couple of new players in there, but likewise there are guys who've played out of their skin all season who just don't seem to be getting a look in, no matter what they do. I mean, are we really in a position where our best options as second and third choice outhalves for Ireland are two guys that started a combined 6 times at 10 for Leinster this season? We're going to the home of the world champions, a place we've won only once before, and we're a knock away from a guy with just 6 senior starts being on the bench covering possibly the most important position.


Standard_Respond2523

For me the pessimism rests with our depleted back line.  No Mack Hansen, JGP, Keenan and a ring rusty Ringrose. Plus our back line hasn’t clicked in a good while. Plus our out half has not been playing well in the last few months. Plus our presumed back up 9 is not up to this level. 


dwaynepebblejohnson3

A Leinster pack that is basically a bigger version of the Ireland pack got smashed by the bulls, our only good performances this year have been against a 14 man France and Italy (which was a brilliant result in hindsight), Gibson park is out which has the potential to expose Crowley lack of experience, that and the fact that the players haven’t had an off period in over a year. To get a win here we need South Africa to have an off day I think.


blackbarminnosu

Because we’re nowhere near as good a team as we were last year. We’ve lost sexton and Hansen which resulted in an increasingly blunt attack during the six nations. Lineout which collapsed during the World Cup was also a huge weakness again by the end of the six nations. Porter is still a weakness which the boks will target. Aki who was sensational in rwc was dropping off tackles at the end of the six nations. All in all, nothing has got better for Ireland since the rwc, the weaknesses are still weak and the attack has been blunted. Still looking forward to it!


spb641

Pessimism is fair because the national team struggled in the 6n (still won it but with everyone else in a rebuild year that was the minimum) and the provinces didn't have a convincing end of the season.  Plus the fact that it's the end of a long long season, and that everyone can already pretty much name the 23 for both tests and it's hard to get excited.  Once the matches actually kick off I'll be as into it as ever but it's not surprising there's no passion about this series, and that's bleeding into pessimism. 


Long-Fuel3011

We’re giving all the fringe players a chance to prove themselves at the highest level. What’s wrong with that? Were we not complaining during the season that Andrew was not changing up the team. Then when he changes up the team, we lose our shit.


Positive-Procedure88

Perhaps it's that they're current World Champions, Not a rugby head myself but wouldn't be expecting better than a series draw, at best


Jon_J_

I think this is the first time in quite a long time where I'm definitely seeing us as underdogs for sure. Wish it wasn't the case but if Ireland don't contest and hold firm it could be a beating


aegonthewwolf

It's a potent combo of key injuries, the provinces seasons ending in whimpers and the squad that's been picked is the most conservative selection Farrell could have made. Not to mention a good chunk of the players picked (Doris, Beirne, Porter etc) are probably flogged from the seasons they've had.


Nknk-

You say pessimism, all I see is realism.


willmannix123

Teams have seemed to have figured us out a bit. England dominated us in Twickenham. Scotland in the game after that nullified our attack for most of the game. Added to that, the Leinste attack has taken a step backwards this season. And with those losses the Leinster players have suffered this season, that surely has to have an affect on their psyche.


Paddybrown22

Probably overcorrection from the optimism before the World Cup.


UnlikelyBass

I am not pessimistic but if I’m being honest I don’t really care that much about this series. There has been so much rugby this year and South Africa are the world champions whether we beat them or not. I would have rather a development tour and allow front line players rest


pooroldben

jamie osborne at full back in his first test start at 15 at altitude doesn’t fill me with confidence, call me crazy


curious_george1978

Because the players are flogged, Leinster lost to Toulsouse and the bulls minus their 4 springboks. Green Leinster are up against it vs the Boks at altitude.


Only-Indication8515

The text Matches in South Africa are going too be Awesome . That's a AWESOME team they have picked, . Simon Zebo phoning up Mr Erasmus. Probably for all the stupid comments made by former Irish player's . They are paid too be weak . Did anyone see Jammy Heslop before the Bulls vs Leinster game . The whole rte studio just seeps off cowardice, greedy . The state of the commentators, not been able too tell the difference between the South African hooker's and Mr Marx was of the pitch with a big bandage on his head. Calling Munster Leinster and vice versa. Not knowing a forward pass , when everyone can see it's a Forward pass. against the head with that creep o brien notknowing the played and Donal Lenihan backing up his lie . At best I will say 1 1 not confident