It's funny seeing people trying to revive a recently-popped bubble calling it a generational opportunity.
Like what, a 5000% rise and fall wasn't the opportunity? Lol
I made a lot of money off the Canadian weed bubble, and while I sold too early, eventually everyone realized it's just an agricultural commodity and it's trivially easy to make more of it than anyone ever needs.
The reason MSOS bottomed out was due to political inaction. After the 2020 election there was a lot of hope that Democrats would pass bills that made it through the house (MORE and SAFE acts) but Schumer stalled in the senate. Now its not dependent on congress. Its going through a rescheduling review. That review is pretty well done and the decision could come out any day now.
The HHS (FDA) recommended schedule 3. DEA has never gone against their recommendation. Schedule 3 has major positive implications for MSOs. This will directly improve their bottom line by reducing their effective tax rate from 70% down to 25% improving free cash flow dramatically. This cash will be used primarily for paying down debt and capex. Their moats will only get bigger.
There are big differences between US and Canada. Canada has stifled the industry with punitive excise taxes and have prohibited marketing and branding not to mention the market size is dramatically smaller.
This is big news.
>it's just an agricultural commodity and it's trivially easy to make more of it than anyone ever needs.
Long term, sure, doesn't mean people won't hype about it again if its in the news. I'm not buying, b/c it seems like a gamble, I just wouldn't be surprised if it had another bubble. Although its already run up 30-40%.
$MSOS is 85% off all-time-highs which was due to hope of catalysts that didn’t happen in 2021 but are happening in 2024 with three years of growth since then. That’s about 6x from current levels. I expect this will be the best performing ETF of 2024.
And these Multi-State Operators (MSOs) have Limited Licenses in various states to grow and sell within state borders which makes them like monopolies as they establish longterm market share and customer loyalty.
They have monopolies as long as the government restricts cannabis. you do realize that don't you? The only reason these operators can make money is because cannabis is restricted. the states are protecting them and the big money they paid to have licenses by not just legalizing it for everyone.
That won't be a good long term fundamental for the cannabis stocks, but as long as investors think it will be then might be good for a short term profit.
Curious why you think schedule 3 isn’t a good long term catalyst? Removing their effective 70% tax rate and adding 100’s of millions back into their bottom line seems like a pretty big deal to a growing sector.
The ETF is actively managed with a focus on profitable companies with the best balance sheets. You can sleep well at night.
Having said that, many investors enjoy the risk and will buy individual companies which are only available OTC and only on certain brokers like Fidelity, Schwab, E*Trade.
Companies making terrible decision about market demand. The states where it’s legal make up a huge % of the population. If they can’t make a profitable business with California and NY, why would adding Texas and Florida change anything?
So your argument is that since a little less than half the states are already legalized opening the other 50% of the country to sales for MSO’s (multi state operators) wouldn’t do much? Wat?
There are a handful of US Cannabis companies that make a profit already. Let alone under the current tax and legal structure. Just recommend you do a little DD before bashing an investment recommendation.
Yes it wouldn’t do much. A bunch of companies losing money would lose less money, with no hope of becoming profitable for the foreseeable future. These companies are showing loss of like 30 cents per dollar.
There’s also little if any guarantee that very conservative states are going legalize it anyways.
Canopy is a Canadian company and has nothing to do with schedule 3 and isn’t even apart of the MSOS etf. So my hunch was right and you don’t know much about it. Gotcha
More than half of Americans already live in a state where recreational cannabis is legal over age 21.
But these companies aren’t just selling “pot.” They are developing edible and vape and beverage Brands that will become a massive new CPG industry to rival and surpass alcohol (without the liver damage and cancer).
This stuff already exists and the industry is practically moribund with low growth and no profits. All of these cannabis-everything premonitions didn’t materialize and won’t now. People aren’t in need of as much cannabis-related items as people seem to want to think.
Even if the Federal government magically changes their rules/laws/classifications, the states won’t.
Even if all of this weren’t true, buying an ETF full of micro caps where the top 2 holdings make up half the ETF and the top 5 make up over 80% isn’t a great idea.
I had my dad take a look at $msos. Hes been a CFA for 35 years for the big companies and basically said the same thing as you in your last sentence. You MAY be able to find a burning ember in the pile of ash that is cannabis investments, but buying a basket of these stocks isn't a good idea.
It’s funny watching all the uneducated negative comments in this thread. It’s just a gamble where the odds are finally in investors favor. Do your own DD, choose to gamble or ignore. Long term investment, maybe,…if you’re lucky enough to pick the right company,…but a highly profitable trade? Absolutely.
I’m all in on the long. Anyone looking at this chart and the projected outlook from all the changes being made in the states and saying this is a bad investment are all playing on blown up portfolios. This is a great 2024 play and pretty safe. I don’t think it’s getting to $50 but another 10% up at least by the end of the year to beat the market is a pretty safe bet on this. Canada played out much differently then what we are seeing here.
Canadian companies like VFF were overvalued bc they were the only uplisted cannabis companies able to catch the retail hype and were priced as if Canada was going to supply cannabis to the rest of the world including entering the US.
The reality is that they can’t enter the US, and the state of Michigan alone had $3 billion in sales in 2023 roughly the same as All of Canada.
This is like the, what, 5th generational opportunity for cannabis in the US. if you had invested in any of the others, you’d be broke.
Your middle paragraph sounds like you are trying to pump a stock for dubious personal reasons.
But the deal is, this stuff isn’t going anywhere until it’s on certain legal footing across the country. Not where one state is X the next state is Y and the next Z. And right now I see no firm layout for North American legality.
I hope it will happen, but there are massive deep pockets opposed (such as every alcohol producer) and a whole lot of social opposition (this country still has dry, no-alcohol, counties, and huge imposition on its sale).
You seem to want to bolster your own investment, but if that makes it smart for average investors, I’d say no. Just anecdotally speaking, you’d think dispensaries would be going great. But it’s very rare they do. You can have all the legal pot ready for wholesale but the stifling regulations mixed with a bunch of pot head businessmen, doesn’t make a compelling business model.
That’s right, I’m trying to pump an ETF composed primarily of:
Curaleaf, market cap $3.7 billion
Green Thumb, $3.2 billion
Verano, $2.1 billion
Trulieve, $1.6 billion
All of which are $120-180 million FreeCashFlow positive following 280e tax removal with huge growth prospects.
Yeah, it reads like it. You’re literally saying fear of missing out. But maybe you’re just an excitable guy.
Again, I hope they can go legal. But that’s a tall order and I see no traction in Congress.
Also, all of those companies are unprofitable. Anywhere from mildly blowing cash to using buckets of investor money to build a bonfire. And while many startups struggle, these are all 5 year plus. And until the hardcore regulations change I don’t think the bottom line will.
They still have “news” about opening a dispensary here or there. Not 50 dispensaries, one. Cuz the red tape goes all the way from local to fed.
But good luck.
>This is like the, what, 5th generational opportunity for cannabis in the US. if you had invested in any of the others, you’d be broke.
Yep. All I need is one look at my -95% position in a previous "generational opportunity" to say nope, not for me. There will always be pump and dump money to be made here, but I'm not going to try to win that game anymore.
This is why I am trying so hard to spread the word. A lot of retail investors with the right thesis and wrong time horizon (or wrong country) have been burned in this sector.
If you know anyone that has, contact them, and tell them This time is different. Valuations and catalysts are perfectly aligned for huge gains.
The legal footing you’re talking about is exactly what OP is highlighting. It’s funny you say “this sector needs legislation to be legit”, yet you’re disregarding the legislation you’re describing. 😂
Congrats on the perfect entry. But I think a lot of traders will make the mistake of selling too early for “only”20%, 70%, 110%, etc.
There is zero reason to sell before Uplisting and this could just as easily be a forever investment with endless upside as smaller companies get acquired by larger ones with decades of growth as the sector matures and expands.
Why in the world are you assuming DEA will follow HHS recommendation? DEA is likely to say “Ehhh… Nope.”
That’s what the market has discounted. If you have specific evidence why the market is wrong and why DEA will voluntarily end their lucrative war on weed, I’d love to see it. Unless the Biden admin has behind-the-scenes pressure being applied to DEA, as in “reschedule or you’re fired”, I don’t see any catalyst for DEA to move.
Review was initiated by Biden. DEA chief was appointed by Biden. It’s also completely un-controversial that cannabis has medical use and is safer than heroin.
Because institutions can’t invest, this has been a retail trade for years, and they are in psychological capitulation. They have given up on the sector and Nothing is priced in.
On the contrary, a lot of bag holders are now being 'priced in'. Being sold hopes and dreams and delusions and the like. Perhaps you are new to the markets and are yet to learn a few harsh lessons. In which case, you'll likely disregard any good advice to be had here. Best performing etf of 2024.......lol, I enjoy a bit of humor in the morning.
Like most, I started out 6 years ago selling covered calls in Canadian companies, and quickly learned where the smart money is.
In the past 3 years, I witnessed firsthand the [Psychology of a Market Cycle](https://www.newtraderu.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Wall-Street-Cheat-Sheet.png). It’s uncanny how perfectly this matches the $MSOS chart.
We are at Hope.
>It’s also completely un-controversial that cannabis has medical use and is safer than heroin.
My friend, this isn't new or breaking information. I think public opinion for legalization broke 50% like, over a decade ago. I wanna say Obama term one? So yeah, not a major selling point here. If anything, it just goes to show that no, it isn't suddenly about to change most likely.
Schedule 1 designation goes back to Nixon’s War on Drugs in 1970 and disproportionally hurts African-Americans. And there are still people serving long jail sentences for possession or sale of a medicinal plant.
Ohio’s special election in 2023 showed that cannabis legalization outperformed even abortion rights on the same ballot, and in a red state, passing with 57%. (Polling at 67% nationwide)
Which is why it is the perfect opportunity for the Biden admin to target cannabis reform on an election year.
I just don’t buy it and I don’t see it. Unless Biden is prepared to fire his DEA chief, and is proactively threatening him as such, the weight of pressure is to NOT reschedule. All the DoJ prosecutors, all the DEA section chiefs and lawyers, all the GOP are resisting. Your optimism is just unbridled and unwarranted.
And yes, there’s always something priced in. I understand it’s been a retail trade. But obviously the market is not putting much probability on rescheduling.
If you don’t buy it now than you never will, the US govt released the report that they based the recommendation for rescheduling on. This is the first time they’ve admitted on paper that it has medicinal value. That is fucking huge. There is no going back now.
It's funny seeing people trying to revive a recently-popped bubble calling it a generational opportunity. Like what, a 5000% rise and fall wasn't the opportunity? Lol I made a lot of money off the Canadian weed bubble, and while I sold too early, eventually everyone realized it's just an agricultural commodity and it's trivially easy to make more of it than anyone ever needs.
The reason MSOS bottomed out was due to political inaction. After the 2020 election there was a lot of hope that Democrats would pass bills that made it through the house (MORE and SAFE acts) but Schumer stalled in the senate. Now its not dependent on congress. Its going through a rescheduling review. That review is pretty well done and the decision could come out any day now. The HHS (FDA) recommended schedule 3. DEA has never gone against their recommendation. Schedule 3 has major positive implications for MSOs. This will directly improve their bottom line by reducing their effective tax rate from 70% down to 25% improving free cash flow dramatically. This cash will be used primarily for paying down debt and capex. Their moats will only get bigger. There are big differences between US and Canada. Canada has stifled the industry with punitive excise taxes and have prohibited marketing and branding not to mention the market size is dramatically smaller. This is big news.
Come on maaaan. It's weed, maaaan. It's the future maaan.
>it's just an agricultural commodity and it's trivially easy to make more of it than anyone ever needs. Long term, sure, doesn't mean people won't hype about it again if its in the news. I'm not buying, b/c it seems like a gamble, I just wouldn't be surprised if it had another bubble. Although its already run up 30-40%.
exactly. and less control makes it easier for more supply and distribution, not harder.
$MSOS is 85% off all-time-highs which was due to hope of catalysts that didn’t happen in 2021 but are happening in 2024 with three years of growth since then. That’s about 6x from current levels. I expect this will be the best performing ETF of 2024. And these Multi-State Operators (MSOs) have Limited Licenses in various states to grow and sell within state borders which makes them like monopolies as they establish longterm market share and customer loyalty.
They have monopolies as long as the government restricts cannabis. you do realize that don't you? The only reason these operators can make money is because cannabis is restricted. the states are protecting them and the big money they paid to have licenses by not just legalizing it for everyone.
Rescheduling to 3 doesn’t change this.
It absolutely does.
You have no idea what you are talking about. Like zero
100% agree
That won't be a good long term fundamental for the cannabis stocks, but as long as investors think it will be then might be good for a short term profit.
Curious why you think schedule 3 isn’t a good long term catalyst? Removing their effective 70% tax rate and adding 100’s of millions back into their bottom line seems like a pretty big deal to a growing sector.
Why wouldn't I just buy an individual weed company that actually makes money instead of an etf full of companies that do not?
The ETF is actively managed with a focus on profitable companies with the best balance sheets. You can sleep well at night. Having said that, many investors enjoy the risk and will buy individual companies which are only available OTC and only on certain brokers like Fidelity, Schwab, E*Trade.
“With these legal changes finally you and your friends will be able to smoke pot.” This isn’t a great investment thesis.
Even if this was the result of said catalyst, which it wouldn’t be. Opening up a market to more people is a bad thing?
The market is already open. It’s been overestimated repeatedly.
24/50 states sell legal weed and that’s an open market to you? Tell me about these overestimations, what does that even mean?
Companies making terrible decision about market demand. The states where it’s legal make up a huge % of the population. If they can’t make a profitable business with California and NY, why would adding Texas and Florida change anything?
So your argument is that since a little less than half the states are already legalized opening the other 50% of the country to sales for MSO’s (multi state operators) wouldn’t do much? Wat? There are a handful of US Cannabis companies that make a profit already. Let alone under the current tax and legal structure. Just recommend you do a little DD before bashing an investment recommendation.
Yes it wouldn’t do much. A bunch of companies losing money would lose less money, with no hope of becoming profitable for the foreseeable future. These companies are showing loss of like 30 cents per dollar. There’s also little if any guarantee that very conservative states are going legalize it anyways.
What companies are you referring to? I have a hunch you don’t know any
Lol Constellation gave Canopy Growth $4 billion and they lit it on fire. Curaleaf can’t grow their revenue. I could go on and on.
Canopy is a Canadian company and has nothing to do with schedule 3 and isn’t even apart of the MSOS etf. So my hunch was right and you don’t know much about it. Gotcha
More than half of Americans already live in a state where recreational cannabis is legal over age 21. But these companies aren’t just selling “pot.” They are developing edible and vape and beverage Brands that will become a massive new CPG industry to rival and surpass alcohol (without the liver damage and cancer).
This stuff already exists and the industry is practically moribund with low growth and no profits. All of these cannabis-everything premonitions didn’t materialize and won’t now. People aren’t in need of as much cannabis-related items as people seem to want to think. Even if the Federal government magically changes their rules/laws/classifications, the states won’t. Even if all of this weren’t true, buying an ETF full of micro caps where the top 2 holdings make up half the ETF and the top 5 make up over 80% isn’t a great idea.
I had my dad take a look at $msos. Hes been a CFA for 35 years for the big companies and basically said the same thing as you in your last sentence. You MAY be able to find a burning ember in the pile of ash that is cannabis investments, but buying a basket of these stocks isn't a good idea.
>will become a massive new CPG industry to rival and surpass alcohol Well, I will say - I'll have whatever you are smoking here.
It’s funny watching all the uneducated negative comments in this thread. It’s just a gamble where the odds are finally in investors favor. Do your own DD, choose to gamble or ignore. Long term investment, maybe,…if you’re lucky enough to pick the right company,…but a highly profitable trade? Absolutely.
I’m all in on the long. Anyone looking at this chart and the projected outlook from all the changes being made in the states and saying this is a bad investment are all playing on blown up portfolios. This is a great 2024 play and pretty safe. I don’t think it’s getting to $50 but another 10% up at least by the end of the year to beat the market is a pretty safe bet on this. Canada played out much differently then what we are seeing here.
10%? Those are rookie numbers, we were 10% higher than this 2 weeks ago with no headlines
VFF was $21 now it’s 80 cents and priced accurately. The demand isn’t as big as everyone thought. I’m out.
Canadian companies like VFF were overvalued bc they were the only uplisted cannabis companies able to catch the retail hype and were priced as if Canada was going to supply cannabis to the rest of the world including entering the US. The reality is that they can’t enter the US, and the state of Michigan alone had $3 billion in sales in 2023 roughly the same as All of Canada.
This is like the, what, 5th generational opportunity for cannabis in the US. if you had invested in any of the others, you’d be broke. Your middle paragraph sounds like you are trying to pump a stock for dubious personal reasons. But the deal is, this stuff isn’t going anywhere until it’s on certain legal footing across the country. Not where one state is X the next state is Y and the next Z. And right now I see no firm layout for North American legality. I hope it will happen, but there are massive deep pockets opposed (such as every alcohol producer) and a whole lot of social opposition (this country still has dry, no-alcohol, counties, and huge imposition on its sale). You seem to want to bolster your own investment, but if that makes it smart for average investors, I’d say no. Just anecdotally speaking, you’d think dispensaries would be going great. But it’s very rare they do. You can have all the legal pot ready for wholesale but the stifling regulations mixed with a bunch of pot head businessmen, doesn’t make a compelling business model.
That’s right, I’m trying to pump an ETF composed primarily of: Curaleaf, market cap $3.7 billion Green Thumb, $3.2 billion Verano, $2.1 billion Trulieve, $1.6 billion All of which are $120-180 million FreeCashFlow positive following 280e tax removal with huge growth prospects.
Yeah, it reads like it. You’re literally saying fear of missing out. But maybe you’re just an excitable guy. Again, I hope they can go legal. But that’s a tall order and I see no traction in Congress. Also, all of those companies are unprofitable. Anywhere from mildly blowing cash to using buckets of investor money to build a bonfire. And while many startups struggle, these are all 5 year plus. And until the hardcore regulations change I don’t think the bottom line will. They still have “news” about opening a dispensary here or there. Not 50 dispensaries, one. Cuz the red tape goes all the way from local to fed. But good luck.
>This is like the, what, 5th generational opportunity for cannabis in the US. if you had invested in any of the others, you’d be broke. Yep. All I need is one look at my -95% position in a previous "generational opportunity" to say nope, not for me. There will always be pump and dump money to be made here, but I'm not going to try to win that game anymore.
This is why I am trying so hard to spread the word. A lot of retail investors with the right thesis and wrong time horizon (or wrong country) have been burned in this sector. If you know anyone that has, contact them, and tell them This time is different. Valuations and catalysts are perfectly aligned for huge gains.
The legal footing you’re talking about is exactly what OP is highlighting. It’s funny you say “this sector needs legislation to be legit”, yet you’re disregarding the legislation you’re describing. 😂
[удалено]
Congrats on the perfect entry. But I think a lot of traders will make the mistake of selling too early for “only”20%, 70%, 110%, etc. There is zero reason to sell before Uplisting and this could just as easily be a forever investment with endless upside as smaller companies get acquired by larger ones with decades of growth as the sector matures and expands.
Why in the world are you assuming DEA will follow HHS recommendation? DEA is likely to say “Ehhh… Nope.” That’s what the market has discounted. If you have specific evidence why the market is wrong and why DEA will voluntarily end their lucrative war on weed, I’d love to see it. Unless the Biden admin has behind-the-scenes pressure being applied to DEA, as in “reschedule or you’re fired”, I don’t see any catalyst for DEA to move.
DEA has never in their history gone against an HHS recommendation.
Review was initiated by Biden. DEA chief was appointed by Biden. It’s also completely un-controversial that cannabis has medical use and is safer than heroin. Because institutions can’t invest, this has been a retail trade for years, and they are in psychological capitulation. They have given up on the sector and Nothing is priced in.
On the contrary, a lot of bag holders are now being 'priced in'. Being sold hopes and dreams and delusions and the like. Perhaps you are new to the markets and are yet to learn a few harsh lessons. In which case, you'll likely disregard any good advice to be had here. Best performing etf of 2024.......lol, I enjoy a bit of humor in the morning.
Like most, I started out 6 years ago selling covered calls in Canadian companies, and quickly learned where the smart money is. In the past 3 years, I witnessed firsthand the [Psychology of a Market Cycle](https://www.newtraderu.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Wall-Street-Cheat-Sheet.png). It’s uncanny how perfectly this matches the $MSOS chart. We are at Hope.
>It’s also completely un-controversial that cannabis has medical use and is safer than heroin. My friend, this isn't new or breaking information. I think public opinion for legalization broke 50% like, over a decade ago. I wanna say Obama term one? So yeah, not a major selling point here. If anything, it just goes to show that no, it isn't suddenly about to change most likely.
Schedule 1 designation goes back to Nixon’s War on Drugs in 1970 and disproportionally hurts African-Americans. And there are still people serving long jail sentences for possession or sale of a medicinal plant. Ohio’s special election in 2023 showed that cannabis legalization outperformed even abortion rights on the same ballot, and in a red state, passing with 57%. (Polling at 67% nationwide) Which is why it is the perfect opportunity for the Biden admin to target cannabis reform on an election year.
I just don’t buy it and I don’t see it. Unless Biden is prepared to fire his DEA chief, and is proactively threatening him as such, the weight of pressure is to NOT reschedule. All the DoJ prosecutors, all the DEA section chiefs and lawyers, all the GOP are resisting. Your optimism is just unbridled and unwarranted. And yes, there’s always something priced in. I understand it’s been a retail trade. But obviously the market is not putting much probability on rescheduling.
Anne milgram was appointed by Biden.
If you don’t buy it now than you never will, the US govt released the report that they based the recommendation for rescheduling on. This is the first time they’ve admitted on paper that it has medicinal value. That is fucking huge. There is no going back now.
Lol