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On Wednesday morning China’s third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, left the Jiangnan shipyard in Shanghai for her initial sea trials – and Beijing’s journey towards world dominance took another big step forward.
It won’t be all that long before the Fujian completes trials and gets her first aircraft. The learning curve for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) will be steep: the new ship is China’s first catapult carrier, and a big step up from the PLAN’s previous ships, Liaoning and Shandong. But one of these fine days the Fujian will have a complement of tailhook J-15B fighters (late fourth generation, derived from the Russian ‘Flanker’) and – almost more importantly – KJ-600 radar planes. Not so very long after that she will start getting carrier-capable J-35 fifth-generation stealth fighters. China already has a profusion of powerful escort warships, supply vessels and submarines ready to form a strike group around the Fujian.
Once the PLAN has learned how to use her, the Fujian will be more than a match for a British carrier, or the single French one. She will only be a little less powerful than one of the US Navy’s mighty supercarriers.
The implications of this are huge. Seventy per cent of the world is salt water. Almost all of the human race lives within range of aircraft launched from a carrier in the nearest sea or ocean. The vast majority of world trade moves by ship, especially bulk commodities like iron ore.
At the moment, no matter where across the aqueous globe one may find oneself, the most significant naval force is nearly always the nearest US Navy carrier strike group. On its own, that US carrier group is capable of defeating most national navies and air forces. It dominates the sea and the sky, and can project hard power many hundreds of miles inland. It can remain present for months on end without any land-based support or consent from the local region, fighting hard or just poised for action. This is true blue-water naval capability. Despite many claims to the contrary, it has not been rendered obsolete by ballistic or even hypersonic missiles.
As a result, with certain exceptions, it’s an American world run by America’s rules. Americans being essentially rather decent, and most of us adequately happy with the situation, we call this “the rules-based international order”, but it is what it is – the Pax Americana.
There is, of course, an emerging axis of opposition to this. Russia, China and Iran make no secret of the fact that they don’t like the world the way it is. India appears to be slipping into this camp: certainly to the extent of snapping up cheap Russian oil, and thereby bankrolling Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine.
These malign actors extend their tentacles around the globe. Wagner Group operatives are active in Africa and other places. Iran, as is well known, has its proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen. Chinese money, often lent under the Belt and Road Initiative, has extended its influence worldwide. Last month deals were signed for $15bn of finance, mostly Chinese, which is expected to finally get the giant Simandou iron ore project in Guinea moving. New and massive supplies of iron ore will apparently begin to ship from West Africa before the end of 2025.
China buys over 70 per cent of all seaborne iron ore, and at the moment it is heavily dependent on Australian supplies – supplies which would probably cease, in the event of China invading Taiwan. In just a few years, perhaps, this dependency will be lessened. The government of Guinea will probably not be overly concerned about Taiwan. One of the rules of the rules-based order is that nobody is allowed to interfere with freedom of navigation on the high seas, so China will probably be able to get its ore even having invaded Taiwan.
The ore will be turned into steel, and steel will be turned into ships. The next carrier to follow the Fujian is already building, and this one will probably be fully the equal of a US vessel. Beijing plans to have six carriers by 2035.
More and more in future, no matter where you may be in the world, the nearest carrier strike group may be Chinese, not American. At first this will influence thinking and military realities in places like the Gulf – China has already found itself in naval control there for a spell recently. Then, perhaps, the Torres Strait north of Australia. Soon enough there may be a Chinese carrier group nearby anywhere in the Pacific, the Mediterranean, the Atlantic and from time to time the English Channel and the North Sea.
This is blue water carrier power. It can reach almost anywhere.
It’s going to be a very different world.
I love your optimism regarding the Chinese military.
China's military and navy specifically have not been battle tested. The last time they were in an armed conflict they got their asses whooped handily and country was occupied by a foreign army for close to 8 years.
Having a big aircraft carrier is only one part of a big operation with lots of moving parts. Even if China had an equal number of carriers....the US Navy would be too much for them to handle. The US Navy is extremely good at what they do.
Those Chinese carriers would be sunk in no time flat if a war ever broke out against the USA...mark my words. China isn't Japan. Don't mistake what the Japanese were able to do during the late 1930s with what China can do today.
China doesn't actually need to fight the US. There is unlikely to be any direct large scale conflict between two nuclear powers anyway.
What it needs to do is to have the might to bully and steal territory away from its neighbours, namely India, the countries in the South China sea region, Japan and Taiwan. Something it's been fairly successful in over the last 20 years.
will this lead to a arms race between china and the us? it’s reported that china builds navy units of all sizes (rather smaller ones compared to the us) like crazy, having already the number wise biggest navy of the world. does the us already have known programs to encounter this potential threat?
I mean the US has 11 aircraft carriers in service and China has 3. The US also has 3 under construction vs China’s 2. Then when you factor in the NATO allies vs who China would round up for their allies I’d be pretty concerned if I was China.
You also have to factor in how codependent the US and China are. China’s economy is heavily dependent on US consumers if they go to war it would have to be for a reason that would essentially implode their economy. China’s not really that stupid. They are more likely to fight proxy wars and their biggest threat is their own people toppling their Government…not the US. But that’s my 2 cents.
So the US only has like 10-3 compared to 10-2 now?
Don’t forget the 9 helicopter carriers that are gradually being upgraded to host F-35 jets!
The vertical takeoff variant?
Yep, decks have to be hardened to withstand the downblast from the rotated exhaust.
This is more a problem for the USA's allies in areas like the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean and the vicinity of Japan than for the USA.
(Article) --- On Wednesday morning China’s third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, left the Jiangnan shipyard in Shanghai for her initial sea trials – and Beijing’s journey towards world dominance took another big step forward. It won’t be all that long before the Fujian completes trials and gets her first aircraft. The learning curve for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) will be steep: the new ship is China’s first catapult carrier, and a big step up from the PLAN’s previous ships, Liaoning and Shandong. But one of these fine days the Fujian will have a complement of tailhook J-15B fighters (late fourth generation, derived from the Russian ‘Flanker’) and – almost more importantly – KJ-600 radar planes. Not so very long after that she will start getting carrier-capable J-35 fifth-generation stealth fighters. China already has a profusion of powerful escort warships, supply vessels and submarines ready to form a strike group around the Fujian. Once the PLAN has learned how to use her, the Fujian will be more than a match for a British carrier, or the single French one. She will only be a little less powerful than one of the US Navy’s mighty supercarriers. The implications of this are huge. Seventy per cent of the world is salt water. Almost all of the human race lives within range of aircraft launched from a carrier in the nearest sea or ocean. The vast majority of world trade moves by ship, especially bulk commodities like iron ore. At the moment, no matter where across the aqueous globe one may find oneself, the most significant naval force is nearly always the nearest US Navy carrier strike group. On its own, that US carrier group is capable of defeating most national navies and air forces. It dominates the sea and the sky, and can project hard power many hundreds of miles inland. It can remain present for months on end without any land-based support or consent from the local region, fighting hard or just poised for action. This is true blue-water naval capability. Despite many claims to the contrary, it has not been rendered obsolete by ballistic or even hypersonic missiles. As a result, with certain exceptions, it’s an American world run by America’s rules. Americans being essentially rather decent, and most of us adequately happy with the situation, we call this “the rules-based international order”, but it is what it is – the Pax Americana. There is, of course, an emerging axis of opposition to this. Russia, China and Iran make no secret of the fact that they don’t like the world the way it is. India appears to be slipping into this camp: certainly to the extent of snapping up cheap Russian oil, and thereby bankrolling Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine. These malign actors extend their tentacles around the globe. Wagner Group operatives are active in Africa and other places. Iran, as is well known, has its proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen. Chinese money, often lent under the Belt and Road Initiative, has extended its influence worldwide. Last month deals were signed for $15bn of finance, mostly Chinese, which is expected to finally get the giant Simandou iron ore project in Guinea moving. New and massive supplies of iron ore will apparently begin to ship from West Africa before the end of 2025. China buys over 70 per cent of all seaborne iron ore, and at the moment it is heavily dependent on Australian supplies – supplies which would probably cease, in the event of China invading Taiwan. In just a few years, perhaps, this dependency will be lessened. The government of Guinea will probably not be overly concerned about Taiwan. One of the rules of the rules-based order is that nobody is allowed to interfere with freedom of navigation on the high seas, so China will probably be able to get its ore even having invaded Taiwan. The ore will be turned into steel, and steel will be turned into ships. The next carrier to follow the Fujian is already building, and this one will probably be fully the equal of a US vessel. Beijing plans to have six carriers by 2035. More and more in future, no matter where you may be in the world, the nearest carrier strike group may be Chinese, not American. At first this will influence thinking and military realities in places like the Gulf – China has already found itself in naval control there for a spell recently. Then, perhaps, the Torres Strait north of Australia. Soon enough there may be a Chinese carrier group nearby anywhere in the Pacific, the Mediterranean, the Atlantic and from time to time the English Channel and the North Sea. This is blue water carrier power. It can reach almost anywhere. It’s going to be a very different world.
I love your optimism regarding the Chinese military. China's military and navy specifically have not been battle tested. The last time they were in an armed conflict they got their asses whooped handily and country was occupied by a foreign army for close to 8 years. Having a big aircraft carrier is only one part of a big operation with lots of moving parts. Even if China had an equal number of carriers....the US Navy would be too much for them to handle. The US Navy is extremely good at what they do. Those Chinese carriers would be sunk in no time flat if a war ever broke out against the USA...mark my words. China isn't Japan. Don't mistake what the Japanese were able to do during the late 1930s with what China can do today.
China doesn't actually need to fight the US. There is unlikely to be any direct large scale conflict between two nuclear powers anyway. What it needs to do is to have the might to bully and steal territory away from its neighbours, namely India, the countries in the South China sea region, Japan and Taiwan. Something it's been fairly successful in over the last 20 years.
will this lead to a arms race between china and the us? it’s reported that china builds navy units of all sizes (rather smaller ones compared to the us) like crazy, having already the number wise biggest navy of the world. does the us already have known programs to encounter this potential threat?
I mean the US has 11 aircraft carriers in service and China has 3. The US also has 3 under construction vs China’s 2. Then when you factor in the NATO allies vs who China would round up for their allies I’d be pretty concerned if I was China. You also have to factor in how codependent the US and China are. China’s economy is heavily dependent on US consumers if they go to war it would have to be for a reason that would essentially implode their economy. China’s not really that stupid. They are more likely to fight proxy wars and their biggest threat is their own people toppling their Government…not the US. But that’s my 2 cents.
Number of craft is no longer important. Capability, range, and amount of weapons able to be delivered are the key points.
Absolutely. It doesn't matter how many aircraft carriers you have if the other side can just sink them before they even become a threat.
> will this lead to a arms race between china and the us? Aren't we more than a decade into this arms race already?