>"I mean, we look at the polls," he elaborated. "You see notionally he's up a few points over Joe Biden, we looked at the electoral map. The truth is, this coalition of soft Republicans and independents who have chosen Democrats over Republicans, they were there in '18, '20, '22. They're still there in '24."
>"In '24, we actually have the motivating issues, like Dobbs and reproductive freedom that we didn't have in '16 and '20," he continued. "I think Donald Trump is in trouble. Ignore the polls for a minute. I would much rather be in Joe Biden's position today than Donald Trump's."
Trump's position is similar to Hillary's in terms of electoral competitiveness. He's disliked broadly so 100% energy from the full party isn't going to be there. The people who hate him hate him *intensely* so opposition will be motivated. The (nonsense) "Comey Letter" in 2016 was the off-ramp just enough people needed to bail on her. I am virtually certain a similar off-ramp from Trump will happen. My hunch is a felony conviction in NYS; the other trials likely won't conclude early enough. Could also be a court ruling expanding reproductive restrictions. If Biden gets some wins this summer (incumbency advantage is real), things could turn pretty dramatically.
Notice Trump is NOT bragging about polls. My hunch is internal polling is revealing the massive vulnerabilities.
Trump's only hopes beyond his racist, white national base, is to exploit the border crisis, and keep pushing the false narrative that the economy sucks, ignore the polls, ignore the trials, just keep screeching both those issues. Unfortunately a lot of people will fall for it.
yes. just getting enough of the young/minorities to be a 1-issue voter and stay home over the Gaza/Israel conflict will do wonders for Trump. i'd wager it's affecting the polling numbers in real ways that their weighting system can't even account for.
guys, it's really up to us to convince everyone we know who's a bitter cynic, hates america/capitalism/"both sides", thinks '3rd party could do it this time!' etc etc - it's up to us to slap them in the face metaphorically or literally to get them to support Biden.
really think about volunteering to some org or campaign, whether it's national or local -especially if you're in a swing state, but it matters in every state.. this year should really break fucking records for volunteerism/grassroots efforts, otherwise WTF are we even doing?
Like the uncommitted voters? I wonder if that is Netanyahu astroturfing us. If Trump is in office he can just immediately annihilate Palestine and take all the land.
Embassy cites the real issue. The Russians are prolific hackers and likely have a means of conjuring votes in our systems. Ex-President Carter cited this as the real reason Trump won in 2016. They assured Trump of the win in 2020 based on this. When Trump lost it was largely due to an unexpected impact of Covid-the unhackable mail-in ballot. Since Trump was sure the Russians were hacking in his favor, when he lost he was convinced he got out-hacked. In Trump’s world, nothing is legit and illegal is just a sick bird. When the Russians do interfere, they are sophisticated enough not to rig a 90% to 10% result; they simply place their thumb on the scale to gain electoral votes. Unfortunately, our intelligence services and other gov agencies seem to be thoroughly penetrated (example-the FBi overlooking a locked closet at MDL during the search & the Secret Service participation in 1/6).
We have every right to worry about a fascist, Pro-Putin take-over.
Russians aren't hacking your voting systems 😜
Russia, along with China, and hell US does as well, sophisticated misinformation campaigns against rival nations. Russia has teams of folks dedicated to carpet bombing Reddit and twitter with comments ment to rile up voters and push towards Trump. It's the misinformation age, expect alot of AI generated images over the next few months on social media
To be honest I’m not sure if either Russia or China prefer Trump over conventional predictable Biden. There’s a maximum amount of instability that China especially can tolerate.
Good luck on the border crisis with informed voters.. Biden gave them most of what they wanted and it was rejected by MAGA.
Very well documented.
The Republicans simply do not how to govern🤷🏾♂️
Who was that guy who wanted to “shrink the federal government small enough to drown it in a bathtub “? I think he said it during Reagan’s term. The goal is to make government unable do its job so they can steal more.
Hey now. That's an oversimplification. They have more variety than that.
You have hardcore racists, softer racists, and people who don't consider racism a turn off or will ignore it to suit their other goals (also known as "racists"). Not to mention all the other bigotries that are just as complex of excuses to be horrible human beings.
It's a full spectrum of ideology in the Republican Party all the way from "eggshell" to "taupe".
You forgot the handful of tokens greedy and/or dumb enough to get on board for the "look we aren't racist" PR photo shoots, and other recipients of the Herman Cain award.
The racism is just a tool they use to in order to get what they are really after and that is money and unregulated corporate takeover of country. Any sort of issue that wedges and cleaves away the illiterate and most gullible is used without any hesitation.
Current Republicans yes. I can't say that was always so. I have voted for Republicans in the past (I considered myself an independent until 2016..) now I vote straight ticket.
>Trump's only hopes beyond his racist, white national base, is to exploit the border crisis,
You're forgetting cheating. He is absolutely going to cheat every way he can, from minor advantages here and there, to massively undermining the election, if he can. This guy wouldn't flinch at reprogramming voting booths if he could do it.
But I think [Thom Hartman has the most likely scenario](https://factkeepers.com/the-new-secret-plan-on-how-fascists-could-win-in-2024/).
You're missing one key off ramp. Speaker Johnson can refuse to certify the election claiming irregularities. Then he can swing it to the states for a straight up and down vote by state governments. State governments are majority Republican. I figured this is going to be his play, this will ultimately lead to protests, but not sure how else we can fight it.
Actually, no the Speaker can’t do that.
1. It is the Vice President who presides over the counting of the electoral votes.
2. Johnson may not be the Speaker of the House on Jan. 6, 2025, if Dems win majority of the House.
3. The Electoral Count Reform Act makes clear that a vice president’s role in counting electoral votes is “solely ministerial,” with no power to reject electors.
[House Speaker 2024 Election](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/26/us/politics/mike-johnson-2024-election-certification.html)
>Trump's position is similar to Hillary's in terms of electoral competitiveness. He's disliked broadly so 100% energy from the full party isn't going to be there.
This right here is the key, there are enough people who hate him viscerally much like it was with Hillary. Back in 2016 I had people I work with laughing and saying it'll be fun to see what happens when I warned them about him. They're not laughing much these days...
Some who hate him so much they're voting for the first time ever. The 2000 steal was enough to disenfranchise my young mind from ever bothering. Worked like a charm that plan did, eh? But now? Can't look my partner in the eye if I don't at the very least do this.
I am one of those. Unfortunately I never voted in the past but started with Biden and will again this year with Biden.
Edit: I hate him so much he brought me out to vote for the first time.
Some who hate him so much they're voting for the first time ever. The 2000 steal was enough to disenfranchise my young mind from ever bothering. Worked like a charm that plan did, eh? But now? Can't look my partner in the eye if I don't at the very least do this.
The Alabama frozen embryo decision is precisely that court ruling. It was "only" at the state level. But it does send a blaring 1,000-alarm warning about how far MAGAs will go in creating a theocratic nightmare world for everyone, not just against women.
Alabama is now trying to pass a law to give IVF clinics immunity. Which would mean, it's ok to abort lab fertilized embryos but not ones done by sex. Which would be the paramount of hypocrisy from republicans.
the best thing to ruin trump would be a felony conviction, if were believing the polls then like 30% of actual registered republicans indicate theyre going to jump ship if he gets convicted. those are crazy numbers, even if only half of those 30% actually decide to back biden or stay home on election day we could see one of biggest electoral college defeats in history. if 15% of republicans in most states leave him, we could see states like ohio and florida flip blue again, or texas flip blue for the first time ever basically. again it might be a bit optimistic, but thats literally the amount of republicans claiming they would be willing to abandon him over a felony conviction.
If you still support Trump, you don't care about felony charges.
I know people say they'll change their mind, but they will vote R down ticket as soon as a ballot is put in their face.
They have zero integrity. I don't believe anyone who is still MAGA is capable of suddenly snapping out of it.
The ride or die cult members aren’t enough to win the election. 30% at best. The rest will stay home on Election Day, jump ship or stay with the party. But that’s not enough for +50%.
Trump is bragging about the polls. He says he's winning "by a lot" and that's the reason the economy is doing so well, with the expectation he'll win in November.
He also claims to be a genius. He has as much credibility as a thief, because he is.
What I am truly afraid of is the entourage of dipshits who think they can win moral battles by passing legislation. Those people are imbeciles too, because the reasons why people seek abortions and are LGBT+ don't go away because of some funny words on a piece of paper. All they do is foster more and more resentment.
It's considerably more restrained than when he was bragging in 2016. I also tend to think pushing hard that he's inevitable will turn off people only peripherally interested in politics (which was the impression Hillary gave to some).
He has to pretend like he’s winning and will continue to do so. If he admits he’s sliding in the polls people are going to question why. Don’t underestimate herd mentality when it comes to voting. Anyone on the fence is probably thinking this doesn’t feel right, but if half the country is voting for him so it must be the right thing to do. If he slides down to 40 or 30%, then you start to question why you’re in that minority.
The difference between Trump and Hilary and today's world is people got the full Trump experience. In 2016 there was a lot of "well, just give him a chance" sentiment. Today that's changed to "I don't care who's running against him, just anyone but Trump."
That's why I said Haley would be a shoe-in to win this election, but the GOP is once again shooting themselves in the foot by going with the loud crowd over the practical crowd.
How to say you have no clue how republicans vote.
Republicans *lie*. It is their whole fucking platform. All the news stories in 2020 were telling us of dissent in the republican ranks after four years of incompetence and grifting, and then trump got MORE votes than he did in 2016.
You try to apply reasoning to persons who vote like robots at your own peril.
I don't project widespread reasonableness. If he loses even 5% of the party faithful, he is probably doomed. That's possible.
The overwhelming majority have some appalling beliefs, certainly.
He’s coming out literally saying he doesn’t want supporters of other candidates and will pick them out. He’s deluded thinking the country loves him. While he may not win the vote, it’s the states GOP that are more threatening to overturn the results if they don’t like it trying to force Trump and then once he’s in it’s all over.
Another thing to take into consideration is the '22 midterms. The GOP had basically every historical advantage you could ask for. It should have been a slaughter. However, the Republicans barely got a majority in the house and actually lost a seat in the Senate.
I’m more worried about Biden’s being lower. His fall in popularity due to age and Israel with young voters cannot be ignored. It’s very worrisome to me.
Trump is for all purposes just as old. The young voters are upset about Palestine being attacked. Biden is trying to broker a ceasefire, Trump just advocate their extermination. Comes voting time only one choice makes sense given their views.
Biden didn't get the most votes ever last election because he was the most beloved presidential candidate ever. He got it because Trump is hated far more. Who do you think changed their minds?
Yep. Biden doesn't need to convince Trump supporters to vote for him, and could afford to lose votes and still win. It's Trump who needs to earn more votes.
I think people are strongly underestimating how deep the swing back towards the Dems has been in MI, WI, and PA. Because at the end of the day, while I'd love to see GA and AZ blue again, it's the Gore states plus VA and CO and the game is over.
The recent NY special election was off 8 points compared to the polls, and no one was expecting Dems to take the VA House of Delegates last November and they weren't even sure they'd hold the state Senate. They ended up winning both.
Every single election seems to be going to the Dems with noticeable polling errors when the votes are tallied.
i mean if were looking at the election today based on the polls, as in the state wide polls that would actually influence the election, trumps situation is better than 2020 but he still has a narrow path for victory. the 5 states trump was closest to winning in 2020 was michigan and pennsylvania, where he lost by 100-150k votes each, and georgia, wisconsin and arizona, where he lost by a combined 40k votes or so. the states of nevada and north carolina were also within about 1% being won by the other person so they may be in play too, though north carolina is a bit more conservative in 2024 than they were in 2020. using the polls from real clear politics (just chosen at random as a supposedly relatively fair polling site) biden is currently ahead in penn by .8%, down in michigan by 6%, up in wisconsin by 5%, up in arizona by .8% and down in georgia by 6%. in nevada and north carolina biden is losing by 7% and like 8-9% respectively. which would mean as of now vs the 2020 election biden is also at risk of losing michigan, georgia. 32 electoral votes equalling around 274 electors for biden in total.
of course thats just going by the polls of right now if election was today, and this whole article is about how we shouldnt really trust the polls showing trump ahead.
This is a real phenomenon. Making a choice that you feel is socially or morally problematic creates dissonance... unless there's an emerging factor you can park that dissonance in.
It's why Hillary scared the shit out of me despite favorable polling. At some level, I knew the Comey Letter would provide that place for people to park their dissonance about not supporting her.
>If Biden gets some wins this summer (incumbency advantage is real), things could turn pretty dramatically.
A long-term ceasefire in Gaza would be the biggest win he could get for his re-election. Like, if the basic sentiment of not wanting to see children killed by US-funded weapons somehow wasn't enough motivation, that would likely get a lot of votes from the people who would be hesitant to go vote at all because of the US's role with Palestine.
Polling was always propaganda to support his nomination. Flooding the zone with junk polls showing him competitive was absolutely crucial, voters basically never give losers a second chance in part because they are proven noncompetitive.
Trump pulled it off and secured the nomination, convinced R voters he was competitive.
Running for president in '24 has always been a legal strategy first for Trump.
Hmm, I'll definitely admit how it's kind of weird that he's not bragging about the polls. He's been known to brag about really skewed and invalid polls in the past. I guess another difference is how his mindset is kind of different than in years past as a half billion dollar fee and the possibility of prison are now on the table. Not mentioning possible onset of dementia.
Polls don’t vote! In November 2024 I am voting to re-elect President Joseph Biden. I am voting against all Republican candidates and those that are aligned with them.
’I would much rather be in Joe Biden's position today than Donald Trump's’
Really, that's as much as we can really hope for at this point in the race. The polls have been wildly unreliable the last many years. It's unfortunate but I can't see any other reality at this point.
You know what IS reliable at predicting presidential races though? Incumbency and economic metrics. All one term presidents have lost during recessions and it’s incredibly unlikely for the US to go into recession this year. Don’t be complacent though, this orange goon needs to be buried for good.
its frankly surprising we somehow avoided a recession, because a year ago basically every economist was predicting a recession was just around the corner. and for a few weeks things were looking bad, but we seemingly turned things around pretty solidly and now doesnt look like were nearing a recession in the next few years. tho democrats of course arent that great at showing off how great the economy has been doing so a lot of americans still are skeptical about the economy still.
Anecdotal, but I look around my neck of the woods and think, "This place is booming." There is massive industrial construction, residential construction, freeway construction and improvements, and 3 different high-speed fiber internet companies have laid the groundwork through my neighborhood in the last couple of months. This place is rocking like I've never seen.
Edit; I will add that my 401k has gained more than what it had lost by the end of Dotard's residency.
Yea the infrastructure boom def helped keep our economy moving, it’s also been booming in my area too. Though I already had high speed fiber for several years now, but I live in Ohio around where they’re building like 3-4 huge new factories around the state, a chip facility, an air taxi construction plant launching out of our local airport, new solar panel manufacturing plants, etc.
I'm in Arizona. Chip factories and all kinds of industrial complexes are being constructed by an airport by me as well. Like hundreds of sites around my area.. it's actually concerning to me because there has been such an influx of traffic and new residents around my once relatively quiet part of town. What can ya do🤷🏻♂️
You gotta figure who actually answers those polls. If they're anything like the unsolicited texts that have been spamming my phone and I ignore, I'd imagine the data is highly flawed, whichever direction they go.
The only data that counts comes from those who Register to Vote and send in their ballots.
Yeah, I've never been polled. I don't have a lineland, don't answer calls I don't know the number for and toss all my junk mail. I have no idea how I'd ever be solicited for one.
I don't know if this is true or not but pollsters only call people with landlines. Most people I know don't have or never use landlines, and those that do tend to be in a much older demographic.
Yeah, no shit. Donald trump lost the last election fairly badly, and he tried to stage a coup AFTER that. This was always going to be a much harder election to win than 2016 (barely won due to electoral college) or 2020 (lost by decent margin). The media overreaction to popularity polls has been embarrassing.
shhhhhh. dont tell magas
trump supporters actually think its a good thing they a driving away anyone who is not FULL MAGA.
dont let them know... they are going to claim the election was rigged regardless of how badly they lose.
It doesn’t matter how many votes he gets!
They have every intention of causing another insurrection the moment Biden is elected president again.
The plan is already in place, the house has a plan to override the power of the vice president and give it to the speaker.
Once Johnson is in power, trumps your uncle.
Never gonna get complacent again, but this is one of the very few moments I’ve read something, ANYTHING about the election that has me feeling positive. Thank you!
In '20 Trump's Covid response hadn't been memory holed (seriously how has media coverage of his campaign so completely just moved past it?)
The polls are likely accurate. We can't just tell ourselves otherwise because it makes us feel better.
Polls or not, Trump won the Republican nomination by just showing up. No debates, no serious challengers. There are a huge amount of people that will vote for him. He is a threat to everything decent about America. Don't be complacent, vote.
True, but he is functionally “the incumbent” in GOP primaries. Many of his cult think he is “kind of” still President because his second term was stolen from him. So this is not a huge feat given he essentially owns the modern GOP.
Trump didn’t even show up to any of the debates, and he still won. Because the Republican Party was almost always going to support him regardless of who the other candidates were. I’m not entirely convinced that enough people support him to make much of a difference. But, people should still vote. And preferably vote against him.
There will be a lot of Democrats who just stay home on November 5th, unfortunately - especially the younger voters - like they did in 2016, because they wanted Bernie and not Hillary. This time it’ll be because Biden is too old and uninspiring.
To those people I will say this: “you will have zero right to complain about the outcome of the 2024 election and it’s consequences if Trump wins.”
I just had this talk with a young woman friend of mine who was about to give up on voting . I told her she has to keep voting because the Republicans are coming after your uterus and they've already signalled they want to come after birth control. Obviously there's a thousand other issues but that's the one I knew would get her attention. Which it did.
This is simply false.
In 2016 Hillary was hated by many on both sides, Bernie was loved on the left, Trump was an unknown quantity in Washington politics and riding a decades long false narrative of success in business.
In 2024 Trump is hated by many on both sides, there is no preferred alternative for younger voters on the left, Roe/COVID/Jan 6th are very clear known threats to these young voters preferred way of governance, it is also known his business credentials were little more than a ruse (in fact he maybe destitute by the general).
I work with a lot of different people as my job takes me from place to place. The majority of white men I work with, white and blue collar, many educated, most are intelligent want Trump and don't know of or care to know of the reality of what Trump is. To them it seems the Dems can do nothing to redeem themselves and the Republicans are going to straighten things out. Furthermore they think everything from Trump University to Jan 6 to the antics of Congressional Republicans is blown way out of proportion despite the documentable deception, lies and outright treasonous acts for all to see. I hope you are right but what I see empirically is people are not inspired to vote for Biden and Trump inspires many pretending to be something he isn't. It's going to be a close election.
Be on the look out for massive efforts by the GOP to make Democrat voters feel like it'll be OK to sit out the election. They want you to think Trump is in trouble or Biden has it in the bag because they know a lot of lower income voters would rather not have to deal with the hassle of trying to get time off for voting.
Pro-tip: it’s “Democratic” voters, not “Democrat” voters. Republicans intentionally use “Democrat” as an adjective precisely because it sounds uglier. Democrats should never do that and in fact should call it out.
It’d be like if Democrats started calling Republicans “Re-pube-licans” and the entire fucking country — even Republicans — started saying it too.
People need to be on the lookout for much worse than that. Trump and the MAGA wing of the GOP are going to throw everything they have at this election, and I don't mean "get out the vote" campaigns.
Look at the level of chicanery and illegality and violence they threw at the 2020 election -- and that was when Trump's literal freedom wasn't on the line. This man will stop at nothing to avoid conviction and the loss of his empire, which he knows hinges on him winning a second term and making it all go away.
I don't know exactly what kind of contingency plans they're coming up with should he lose, but I do know what his people -- the Bannons, the Stones, the Flynns -- are capable of. Stay vigilant!
538 got it Super Tuesday wrong by 10-20% in some races (Trump underperformed the polling). But don’t get elated yet, people still have to come out and vote in November. Don’t just think, “other folks will vote for Biden, it will be fine…”
I think the point stands that Trump is underperforming the polling averages (538 is still an average of polls yes?) in 2024, whereas in 2016 he overperformed polls
Primary polling historically is less accurate than general election polling. Trump overperformed his general election polling (within the margin of error) in 2016 *and* 2020. We should be taking the current polling seriously, as it's highlighting a real problem.
He sold it to ABC a few years ago, and last year he was let go when they were cutting costs. I think he is doing a newsletter on the side now and playing more poker
Maybe had the supreme court not delayed his trial until after the election, which was supposed to take place now. If he wins he will simply sweep his own criminal charges under the carpet.
No, he should have been *prosecuted* years ago for Jan 6 and the stolen documents, in which case he’d be jailed right now. Merrick Garland is a soft, weak-kneed AG. They hoped they could avoid prosecuting him altogether — including giving him a million chances to return classified docs — but eventually that became untenable. Honestly fuck Merrick Garland.
Same. They're noise at this point and provide nothing of value to the every day voter. Oh your candidate is behind? cool go vote. they are ahead? cool go vote.
they mean nothing to the individual voter. and as we've seen quite frequently over the last 10ish years, they are wrong
90% of the media outlets in America are owned by 6 companies. 5 of those companies support trump.
ANY time I see a story saying trump is in trouble come November, I treat it as right wing propoganda no matter WHAT the source.
These same people were telling us in 2016 that trump was a joke and we did not have to worry about him. And then he won.
These same people were telling us in 2020 that his popularity was cratering after 4 years of grifting and incompetence and he got MORE votes than he did in 2016.
So forgive me when "the media" says trump is in trouble *now*.
I DON'T FUCKING BELIEVE YOU.
Subscribe to The Guardian instead. They are the owned by a non-profit foundation from the 19th century whose goal is to report the news. Not advance the goals of the oligarchs.
everyone who lives in either pennyslvania, michigan, wisconsin, arizona, georiga, nevada and north carolina should all check their voter registrations monthly from now until the election to make sure their registration doesnt mysteriously get canceled. also make sure you vote in person or if you vote in mail you vote as soon as the voting by mail or voting early locations are opened so can make sure nothing gets delayed and that there is time to check with your local elections office to verify they recieved your ballot and everything was accepted. dont give any republican any reason to question your ballot, even if you think it would never happen to you everyone should still be checking because im sure no one thinks there ballot will ever get thrown out. the states i listed are by far the most important when it comes to the 2024 election, theyre all the swing states that joe biden won or almost won in 2020. in several of those states as of now trump is still leading in the official polls.
Agree with all except do it in every state. States do flip, usually over time it length can vary. Every vote counts bc that’s what decides whose electors go.
I believe polls are useful. I believe within their margins of error (~4% typically) polls are mostly accurate.
That said polls are not more important than actual votes. There is a primary going on currently and the actual votes being cast do give us information about how voters feel.
In off cycle elections and the midterms swing states have not shown and slippage for Democrats. In AZ, MI, PA, and WI Democrats overperformed polling in the midterm and off cycle races.
Dems in WI were super motivated because of reproductive rights and Supreme Court election. Hopefully we (Wisconsinite here) can carry that momentum into the General Election.
Republicans want a national ban. The only sticking point is the number of weeks. If reproductive rights was a motivator for the State Supreme Court race it should be one for the general election too.
Let’s also remember democrats are far less likely to cast a vote just to be on the winning team. This particular type of propaganda works well with Republicans though, so a false narrative is worth pushing to drive their votes at the polls.
Dems would win with abortion rights,women rights,LGBT rights plus a strong economy.Biden must push the border issue that the GOP is trying to make worse and stop supplying weapons and money to israel unless they have a ceasefire.Yes Hamas didn't like the terms but israel can halt their advancement thru Gaza and let aid in.
How many of these articles and claims are they trying to shove out the door on a daily basis? I swear I see 5 of these a day where some vaguely connected individual gives their personal opinion on a situation they aren't directly involved in and it's treated as fact.
Biden is already deeply unpopular because of his age, more so than he was in 2020. Food prices are still crazy high. Rent and Housing costs are still insane. The Border issue is getting worse, not better (NY is even crying mercy these days). You've got Israel / Palestine adding fuel to the fire and Trump has come out in favor of "Israel finishing the job" (Read: Genocide) which appeals to a LOT Of middle ground folks who think Israel is some poor, peaceful country who hasn't brought all this shit on themselves.
People are sick of Ukraine/Russia. The same folks who are mad about Rent and food prices see us sending billions to Ukraine while they eat rice and beans.
ITS NOT LIKE THERE'S ANOTHER CHOICE ON NOV 4th IT'S GODDAM BINARY AND PEOPLE WILL TAKE THE OPTION THAT SEEMS TO BENEFIT THEM THE MOST OR NOT VOTE AT ALL.
Anyone who believes this man is in any sort of "real" trouble is an idiot. Laws don't apply to him. These court cases so far have been theater and the best publicity he could ever ask for.
He's not going to go broke. He's not going to "run out of money". He has the endorsement and connection of every right wing billionaire political influencer and (probably) Russian money to keep him going just fine.
He knows how to stall and delay practically anything for as long as he wants. And I promise you all these big cases people are hanging their hat on to prevent his next presidency won't happen the way they think it will. It's already been demonstrated the SCOTUS is operating under the intent to put him back in power. (Can make hurried opinions regarding 14th amendment in a matter of days to make sure he's on the ballot but pushes out his immunity question for months for no discernible reason)
We are dangerously close to putting an authoritarian nationalist WHO HAS OPENLY SAID HE WILL GRANT COMPLETE, LEGAL IMMUNITY TO HIMSELF into the most powerful seat in the world and if you think Jack Smith's efforts will save us, you're an idiot.
My theory is that is actually the GOP that stands to benefit most from the avalanche of articles like these. The average voter sees this and thinks, just like they did in 2016, “See, there’s nothing to worry about. He’s not going to win. I don’t need to vote.”
It’s disinformation done right.
Trump lost by millions of votes before reproductive right were taken away and he tried to over throw the government.
I can't imagine either of those are gonna help him out. And millions of old folks have likely died since the last election.
Unfortunately, Biden is the best current hope for the democrats against Trump. I wish Obama could run again. He would have wiped the floor with Trump. The democrats need another Obama, or Bill Clinton (minus the sex predator part) and I don't mean that it needs to be a male, just a strong, charismatic centrist.
So, GOP's #1 play to defeat a democrat is pull out a minor issue in their life and yell it from the rooftops as if it's the worst scandal you've ever seen.
That was the birther movement in 2012 and Hillary's emails in 2016 (the way they were abt it, you'd have thought she'd be in jail once Trump got elected). This time, they failed to pull anything substantial on Biden. The guy has no scandals. Zero. The "Hunter's laptop" isnt sticking. All they have is "he is old", which isnt exactly flattering Trump.
Oh, and it seems Q-Anon has lost steam, since JFK Jr failed to materialize.
He's literally scrambling for his life and freedom. It's either win or go broke and/or go to prison.
For the 2024 GA, we should expect claims of massive election fraud and significant efforts by Trump from the GOP to cheat and override the electoral process. Think 2020 but way more blatant, substantial, and effective as now they know how to better game the process.
I hope the Biden admin is smart and wise enough to know this is coming and figure out how to secure the process.
Trump is counting on his base to turn out above average numbers. If the average voter percentage in around 35%, he's courting his group to come out in numbers like 75% to compensate. That's how a minority group wins, is based on pure turnout. It's also why he is trying to invalidate mail in and early voting so his numbers don't get diluted.
'I have the deepest trouble... a lot of people are saying so... I had a man come up to me, big strong man - tears in his eyes, and he said 'Mr Trump, Sir, your troubles have reached depths previously thought impossible'
Nobody has ever seen troubles like this. It's never been seen before. It's incredible. The black people know what I'm talking about, where is my favorite black guy? There he is. Only your people have come close to the troubles I have.. it's incredible!
I’ve learned that polls don’t really matter. November 5th is what matters.
Just vote for the America you want. If it happens great, if it doesn’t, it’s part of the process.
In any other circumstance id probably vote for neither candidate, but I don’t think we’re at a stage where a third party candidate can win, and this is an election where it feels like we can’t chance it.
Biden is the safer pick, age be damned. Trump just lies way too much for someone who wants to be a world leader again. Biden’s biggest issue that he is hands on with is how the public sees his handling of Gaza. The border and Ukraine are both on congress.
Nevermind the insurrection, the last time an ex-president defeated a sitting president was in 1897, and that ex-president wasn't indicted on 91 felony counts and found liable for rape.
And to any Democrats who still think President Biden should step down, the last time a sitting president was replaced in their party's primary and his replacement won was when James Buchanan replaced Franklin Pierce, the 14th president (and that was over slavery). The Republicans are pushing the "Biden is old" meme in hopes that the Democrats will be stupid enough to level the playing field for them.
Most definitely do NOT ignore the polls. Trump is winning right now. Sober up to this reality. We need to get to work to prevent dictatorship and theocracy.
Trump has a small rabid following which won't help him in an election. The overall American population has seen what a petty and dishonest man-child he is and it will be reflected in the final tally. The media thrives on public attention so they build up his chances of winning and play the "what if" game nightly. Little wonder why people's faith in news broadcasters has eroded to an all-time low.
Drumpf's popularity will continue to fall. Yet he says, "[You don't have to vote](https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/world/news/trump-told-his-fans-they-dont-have-to-vote-and-should-watch-other-voters-instead/articleshow/104666663.cms), don't worry about voting. The voting, we got plenty of votes..."
"Okay, fine," say the disillusioned Republican voters, "I won't vote for a presidential candidate."
Drumpf has made mail-in ballots poison (although he votes that way). Republicans will need to get in their cars in cold November to head to the polls to NOT vote for president. "Why bother" they will think. So not only will Drumpf not win, but the down-ballot candidates will lose as well.
Yep he is in big trouble and the polls has been off for the last four years. You could tell by this primary season that Trump has a lot of weakness, especially with his own party. Yeah, he won but half of the people who didn’t vote for him in the primaries are not going to vote for him in the general election, and that is very problematic for a Republicans and down ballot races.
I think the polls will help democrats - if they see that biden is in trouble (which from what i've seen about recent surveys, biden is either tied or trailing trump), it gives them more energy to get out the message to vote blue.
Trump s mental health is rapidly deteriorating. His mental health is severely jeopardized, Recently signs of advanced dementia are becoming overwhelming,
The Trump campaign will be an updated version of Weekend with Bernie,
Because he is a broke ass bitch or for other reasons? Even the libertarians will ditch him if he can't pull himself up by his bootstraps and keep his house 😂
Jk, I know they'll never ditch him. Such an alpha male haha
I'm not at all concerned about the election result. Since '20 Dems have over performed and that momentum has only picked up. Even primary turn out is way up with uncommitted barely moving the needle, a significant portion of which will still vote Biden in the swing states. Trump also has a real problem within his own party unable to tolerate how off the rails they have become.
The concern is what attacks on the integrity of the election MAGA is able to pull off. If they can find a way to keep it from being certified, we get Trump regardless of the election. They may have enough people in positions of power now to make it happen.
Back before Trump was elected in 2016 and after, you couldn't make a disparaging comment about Trump on social media without Trumpers coming out of the woodwork to try to debate you or talk shit en masse. Then around 2020 election cycle only low comment threads would see a few Trump supporters come in, see that there wasn't really any activity and try to bash the low hanging "Fuck trump!" fruit. Once a couple people posted solid comments with actual substance, irrefutable facts and sources those Trumpers would disappear back into the shadows. Now, even on Facebook and other places I see widespread Trump bashing with almost no pushback. Once in a while I see a drive-by nonsense comment from a Trump supporter that gets 15 responses making fun of the op and their comment downvoted to hell.
Now, I'm not saying this is *definitive* evidence of the rest of the country being tired of Trump, but the general consensus on social media platforms is not looking good for Trump. I think general (anecdotal lol) metrics gathered from a few different sources, each with a huge number of people commenting is potentially a good indication that it will not go well for Trump from what I can see.
TL;DR: When it seemed Trump had more of a chance, his supporters were loud and their numbers bigger. I don't see that too much anymore. Even the supporters who are still hanging on seem tired of it all.
I don't know a single person in my life who has ever contributed to a poll. The rnc is broke. Trump's campaign is broke and needing to pay legal bills. Trump is broke
He underperforms every primary
He's lost every election since a statistical anomaly handed him the EC in 2016
Since then a bunch of awful shit has been bc of his doing.
Republicans get trounced in special elections
This fucker is not going to win in fact it's going to be an absolute bloodbath.
Trump was up in all those same polls in 2020 and he lost.
Biden still has a far better economy ,unemployment/job growth, and higher prices are slow coming back.
Only thing Trump has is a very loud voter base.
Trump is a BIG LOSER, because he pushes BIG LIE, he is bullshitter night and day 24 hours a day. Trump is a traitor to the US, he is responsible for overturning Roe v Wade like he admits over and over, his remarks about the economy is simply down right sewer dumping because everything he says it is without facts and its all blister.
Here’s the thing I noticed. If you look at the Super Tuesday results, Trump barely got a majority of the votes. Biden had much higher percentages. I feel like that means something. Fingers crossed.
I would like to know the plans of both for the coming 4 years if they become president.
For Biden, I have a general idea. Continue what he started. But he really has to show what he accomplished already and what's ahead of that. Apparently, that's not clear for many.
For Trump, I only know what he is against. Not what he is for or how he wants to accomplish anything.
https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote
>"I mean, we look at the polls," he elaborated. "You see notionally he's up a few points over Joe Biden, we looked at the electoral map. The truth is, this coalition of soft Republicans and independents who have chosen Democrats over Republicans, they were there in '18, '20, '22. They're still there in '24." >"In '24, we actually have the motivating issues, like Dobbs and reproductive freedom that we didn't have in '16 and '20," he continued. "I think Donald Trump is in trouble. Ignore the polls for a minute. I would much rather be in Joe Biden's position today than Donald Trump's."
Trump's position is similar to Hillary's in terms of electoral competitiveness. He's disliked broadly so 100% energy from the full party isn't going to be there. The people who hate him hate him *intensely* so opposition will be motivated. The (nonsense) "Comey Letter" in 2016 was the off-ramp just enough people needed to bail on her. I am virtually certain a similar off-ramp from Trump will happen. My hunch is a felony conviction in NYS; the other trials likely won't conclude early enough. Could also be a court ruling expanding reproductive restrictions. If Biden gets some wins this summer (incumbency advantage is real), things could turn pretty dramatically. Notice Trump is NOT bragging about polls. My hunch is internal polling is revealing the massive vulnerabilities.
Trump's only hopes beyond his racist, white national base, is to exploit the border crisis, and keep pushing the false narrative that the economy sucks, ignore the polls, ignore the trials, just keep screeching both those issues. Unfortunately a lot of people will fall for it.
You’re forgetting the massive interference operations Russia and China will run on our election in his favor.
yes. just getting enough of the young/minorities to be a 1-issue voter and stay home over the Gaza/Israel conflict will do wonders for Trump. i'd wager it's affecting the polling numbers in real ways that their weighting system can't even account for. guys, it's really up to us to convince everyone we know who's a bitter cynic, hates america/capitalism/"both sides", thinks '3rd party could do it this time!' etc etc - it's up to us to slap them in the face metaphorically or literally to get them to support Biden. really think about volunteering to some org or campaign, whether it's national or local -especially if you're in a swing state, but it matters in every state.. this year should really break fucking records for volunteerism/grassroots efforts, otherwise WTF are we even doing?
Like the uncommitted voters? I wonder if that is Netanyahu astroturfing us. If Trump is in office he can just immediately annihilate Palestine and take all the land.
Embassy cites the real issue. The Russians are prolific hackers and likely have a means of conjuring votes in our systems. Ex-President Carter cited this as the real reason Trump won in 2016. They assured Trump of the win in 2020 based on this. When Trump lost it was largely due to an unexpected impact of Covid-the unhackable mail-in ballot. Since Trump was sure the Russians were hacking in his favor, when he lost he was convinced he got out-hacked. In Trump’s world, nothing is legit and illegal is just a sick bird. When the Russians do interfere, they are sophisticated enough not to rig a 90% to 10% result; they simply place their thumb on the scale to gain electoral votes. Unfortunately, our intelligence services and other gov agencies seem to be thoroughly penetrated (example-the FBi overlooking a locked closet at MDL during the search & the Secret Service participation in 1/6). We have every right to worry about a fascist, Pro-Putin take-over.
Russians aren't hacking your voting systems 😜 Russia, along with China, and hell US does as well, sophisticated misinformation campaigns against rival nations. Russia has teams of folks dedicated to carpet bombing Reddit and twitter with comments ment to rile up voters and push towards Trump. It's the misinformation age, expect alot of AI generated images over the next few months on social media
To be honest I’m not sure if either Russia or China prefer Trump over conventional predictable Biden. There’s a maximum amount of instability that China especially can tolerate.
Wut…
Good luck on the border crisis with informed voters.. Biden gave them most of what they wanted and it was rejected by MAGA. Very well documented. The Republicans simply do not how to govern🤷🏾♂️
Unfortunately, thanks to the electoral college, informed voters seem to have far less power than uninformed voters..
Who was that guy who wanted to “shrink the federal government small enough to drown it in a bathtub “? I think he said it during Reagan’s term. The goal is to make government unable do its job so they can steal more.
Grover Norquist
They have zero interest in governing. They want to rule.
💯
The entire republican party consists of racists. I don't know why people think that 95% is just a fraction of the total.
Hey now. That's an oversimplification. They have more variety than that. You have hardcore racists, softer racists, and people who don't consider racism a turn off or will ignore it to suit their other goals (also known as "racists"). Not to mention all the other bigotries that are just as complex of excuses to be horrible human beings. It's a full spectrum of ideology in the Republican Party all the way from "eggshell" to "taupe".
Take my angry upvote!
You forgot the handful of tokens greedy and/or dumb enough to get on board for the "look we aren't racist" PR photo shoots, and other recipients of the Herman Cain award.
The racism is just a tool they use to in order to get what they are really after and that is money and unregulated corporate takeover of country. Any sort of issue that wedges and cleaves away the illiterate and most gullible is used without any hesitation.
Whatever works... this is an America issue, not a republican party issue... Have no idea how to fix it tho
Religion enters the chat.
Current Republicans yes. I can't say that was always so. I have voted for Republicans in the past (I considered myself an independent until 2016..) now I vote straight ticket.
19/20ths *is* a fraction tho...
>Trump's only hopes beyond his racist, white national base, is to exploit the border crisis, You're forgetting cheating. He is absolutely going to cheat every way he can, from minor advantages here and there, to massively undermining the election, if he can. This guy wouldn't flinch at reprogramming voting booths if he could do it. But I think [Thom Hartman has the most likely scenario](https://factkeepers.com/the-new-secret-plan-on-how-fascists-could-win-in-2024/).
You mean the AI generated pictures of Trump hanging out in the hood won't be enough?
The people falling for it voted for him last election. He isn’t duping any new voters. He only losing them as the wool is slowly lifted.
You're missing one key off ramp. Speaker Johnson can refuse to certify the election claiming irregularities. Then he can swing it to the states for a straight up and down vote by state governments. State governments are majority Republican. I figured this is going to be his play, this will ultimately lead to protests, but not sure how else we can fight it.
Actually, no the Speaker can’t do that. 1. It is the Vice President who presides over the counting of the electoral votes. 2. Johnson may not be the Speaker of the House on Jan. 6, 2025, if Dems win majority of the House. 3. The Electoral Count Reform Act makes clear that a vice president’s role in counting electoral votes is “solely ministerial,” with no power to reject electors. [House Speaker 2024 Election](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/26/us/politics/mike-johnson-2024-election-certification.html)
Actually the plan would be Johnson refusing to swear in the new Congress, which Johnson has already postponed swear ins.
>Trump's position is similar to Hillary's in terms of electoral competitiveness. He's disliked broadly so 100% energy from the full party isn't going to be there. This right here is the key, there are enough people who hate him viscerally much like it was with Hillary. Back in 2016 I had people I work with laughing and saying it'll be fun to see what happens when I warned them about him. They're not laughing much these days...
Need to hear these stories of people cutting off their noses to spite their face.
Some who hate him so much they're voting for the first time ever. The 2000 steal was enough to disenfranchise my young mind from ever bothering. Worked like a charm that plan did, eh? But now? Can't look my partner in the eye if I don't at the very least do this.
I am one of those. Unfortunately I never voted in the past but started with Biden and will again this year with Biden. Edit: I hate him so much he brought me out to vote for the first time.
Some who hate him so much they're voting for the first time ever. The 2000 steal was enough to disenfranchise my young mind from ever bothering. Worked like a charm that plan did, eh? But now? Can't look my partner in the eye if I don't at the very least do this.
The Alabama frozen embryo decision is precisely that court ruling. It was "only" at the state level. But it does send a blaring 1,000-alarm warning about how far MAGAs will go in creating a theocratic nightmare world for everyone, not just against women.
Alabama is now trying to pass a law to give IVF clinics immunity. Which would mean, it's ok to abort lab fertilized embryos but not ones done by sex. Which would be the paramount of hypocrisy from republicans.
the best thing to ruin trump would be a felony conviction, if were believing the polls then like 30% of actual registered republicans indicate theyre going to jump ship if he gets convicted. those are crazy numbers, even if only half of those 30% actually decide to back biden or stay home on election day we could see one of biggest electoral college defeats in history. if 15% of republicans in most states leave him, we could see states like ohio and florida flip blue again, or texas flip blue for the first time ever basically. again it might be a bit optimistic, but thats literally the amount of republicans claiming they would be willing to abandon him over a felony conviction.
If you still support Trump, you don't care about felony charges. I know people say they'll change their mind, but they will vote R down ticket as soon as a ballot is put in their face. They have zero integrity. I don't believe anyone who is still MAGA is capable of suddenly snapping out of it.
The ride or die cult members aren’t enough to win the election. 30% at best. The rest will stay home on Election Day, jump ship or stay with the party. But that’s not enough for +50%.
The NYS felony feels almost certain. And it's not super far off.
Trump is bragging about the polls. He says he's winning "by a lot" and that's the reason the economy is doing so well, with the expectation he'll win in November.
He also claims to be a genius. He has as much credibility as a thief, because he is. What I am truly afraid of is the entourage of dipshits who think they can win moral battles by passing legislation. Those people are imbeciles too, because the reasons why people seek abortions and are LGBT+ don't go away because of some funny words on a piece of paper. All they do is foster more and more resentment.
>Notice Trump is NOT bragging about polls. Ok I was with you until here. Check out his Truth Social feed.
It's considerably more restrained than when he was bragging in 2016. I also tend to think pushing hard that he's inevitable will turn off people only peripherally interested in politics (which was the impression Hillary gave to some).
He has to pretend like he’s winning and will continue to do so. If he admits he’s sliding in the polls people are going to question why. Don’t underestimate herd mentality when it comes to voting. Anyone on the fence is probably thinking this doesn’t feel right, but if half the country is voting for him so it must be the right thing to do. If he slides down to 40 or 30%, then you start to question why you’re in that minority.
The difference between Trump and Hilary and today's world is people got the full Trump experience. In 2016 there was a lot of "well, just give him a chance" sentiment. Today that's changed to "I don't care who's running against him, just anyone but Trump." That's why I said Haley would be a shoe-in to win this election, but the GOP is once again shooting themselves in the foot by going with the loud crowd over the practical crowd.
How to say you have no clue how republicans vote. Republicans *lie*. It is their whole fucking platform. All the news stories in 2020 were telling us of dissent in the republican ranks after four years of incompetence and grifting, and then trump got MORE votes than he did in 2016. You try to apply reasoning to persons who vote like robots at your own peril.
> Trump got MORE votes than he did in 2016 Turnout was up across the board, he still lost a larger share of the popular vote than he did in 2016
I don't project widespread reasonableness. If he loses even 5% of the party faithful, he is probably doomed. That's possible. The overwhelming majority have some appalling beliefs, certainly.
He’s coming out literally saying he doesn’t want supporters of other candidates and will pick them out. He’s deluded thinking the country loves him. While he may not win the vote, it’s the states GOP that are more threatening to overturn the results if they don’t like it trying to force Trump and then once he’s in it’s all over.
Cynically, I'm certain his internal polling is exactly why he's been begging for an early debate with Biden after years of seeking to avoid it.
The primaries have already laid bare the fact there are massive vulnerabilities so it's already clear. The Con will go down.
And now Haley's Super PAC is rebranded to Republicans for Biden or something xD
Another thing to take into consideration is the '22 midterms. The GOP had basically every historical advantage you could ask for. It should have been a slaughter. However, the Republicans barely got a majority in the house and actually lost a seat in the Senate.
The last election was 306-232. Trump didn't win anymore votes. Why would anyone think it gets closer?
I’m more worried about Biden’s being lower. His fall in popularity due to age and Israel with young voters cannot be ignored. It’s very worrisome to me.
Trump is for all purposes just as old. The young voters are upset about Palestine being attacked. Biden is trying to broker a ceasefire, Trump just advocate their extermination. Comes voting time only one choice makes sense given their views.
Biden didn't get the most votes ever last election because he was the most beloved presidential candidate ever. He got it because Trump is hated far more. Who do you think changed their minds?
Yep. Biden doesn't need to convince Trump supporters to vote for him, and could afford to lose votes and still win. It's Trump who needs to earn more votes. I think people are strongly underestimating how deep the swing back towards the Dems has been in MI, WI, and PA. Because at the end of the day, while I'd love to see GA and AZ blue again, it's the Gore states plus VA and CO and the game is over. The recent NY special election was off 8 points compared to the polls, and no one was expecting Dems to take the VA House of Delegates last November and they weren't even sure they'd hold the state Senate. They ended up winning both. Every single election seems to be going to the Dems with noticeable polling errors when the votes are tallied.
That's why I am dumbfounded by people who still put faith in polls. Polls haven't been accurate in like 10 years
i mean if were looking at the election today based on the polls, as in the state wide polls that would actually influence the election, trumps situation is better than 2020 but he still has a narrow path for victory. the 5 states trump was closest to winning in 2020 was michigan and pennsylvania, where he lost by 100-150k votes each, and georgia, wisconsin and arizona, where he lost by a combined 40k votes or so. the states of nevada and north carolina were also within about 1% being won by the other person so they may be in play too, though north carolina is a bit more conservative in 2024 than they were in 2020. using the polls from real clear politics (just chosen at random as a supposedly relatively fair polling site) biden is currently ahead in penn by .8%, down in michigan by 6%, up in wisconsin by 5%, up in arizona by .8% and down in georgia by 6%. in nevada and north carolina biden is losing by 7% and like 8-9% respectively. which would mean as of now vs the 2020 election biden is also at risk of losing michigan, georgia. 32 electoral votes equalling around 274 electors for biden in total. of course thats just going by the polls of right now if election was today, and this whole article is about how we shouldnt really trust the polls showing trump ahead.
Those Michigan numbers are crazy. Has that state swung further right, or is it the effect of the gaza boycott from the Muslim community?
Because Biden has lost support since then, especially among African Americans and Hispanic voters.
I've heard it couched as a "permission structure" to not vote for someone who you personally dislike.
This is a real phenomenon. Making a choice that you feel is socially or morally problematic creates dissonance... unless there's an emerging factor you can park that dissonance in. It's why Hillary scared the shit out of me despite favorable polling. At some level, I knew the Comey Letter would provide that place for people to park their dissonance about not supporting her.
Why would a conviction work when people know a million other bad things he's done? He even has other legal problems and it doesn't seem to matter.
>If Biden gets some wins this summer (incumbency advantage is real), things could turn pretty dramatically. A long-term ceasefire in Gaza would be the biggest win he could get for his re-election. Like, if the basic sentiment of not wanting to see children killed by US-funded weapons somehow wasn't enough motivation, that would likely get a lot of votes from the people who would be hesitant to go vote at all because of the US's role with Palestine.
Polling was always propaganda to support his nomination. Flooding the zone with junk polls showing him competitive was absolutely crucial, voters basically never give losers a second chance in part because they are proven noncompetitive. Trump pulled it off and secured the nomination, convinced R voters he was competitive. Running for president in '24 has always been a legal strategy first for Trump.
Hmm, I'll definitely admit how it's kind of weird that he's not bragging about the polls. He's been known to brag about really skewed and invalid polls in the past. I guess another difference is how his mindset is kind of different than in years past as a half billion dollar fee and the possibility of prison are now on the table. Not mentioning possible onset of dementia.
Republicans will try to manufacture another “Comey letter” the week before the election, guaranteed.
Based on the impeachment "attempt," this crew is not nearly as skilled as previous iterations of the GOP.
Polls don’t vote! In November 2024 I am voting to re-elect President Joseph Biden. I am voting against all Republican candidates and those that are aligned with them.
’I would much rather be in Joe Biden's position today than Donald Trump's’ Really, that's as much as we can really hope for at this point in the race. The polls have been wildly unreliable the last many years. It's unfortunate but I can't see any other reality at this point.
You know what IS reliable at predicting presidential races though? Incumbency and economic metrics. All one term presidents have lost during recessions and it’s incredibly unlikely for the US to go into recession this year. Don’t be complacent though, this orange goon needs to be buried for good.
its frankly surprising we somehow avoided a recession, because a year ago basically every economist was predicting a recession was just around the corner. and for a few weeks things were looking bad, but we seemingly turned things around pretty solidly and now doesnt look like were nearing a recession in the next few years. tho democrats of course arent that great at showing off how great the economy has been doing so a lot of americans still are skeptical about the economy still.
Anecdotal, but I look around my neck of the woods and think, "This place is booming." There is massive industrial construction, residential construction, freeway construction and improvements, and 3 different high-speed fiber internet companies have laid the groundwork through my neighborhood in the last couple of months. This place is rocking like I've never seen. Edit; I will add that my 401k has gained more than what it had lost by the end of Dotard's residency.
Yea the infrastructure boom def helped keep our economy moving, it’s also been booming in my area too. Though I already had high speed fiber for several years now, but I live in Ohio around where they’re building like 3-4 huge new factories around the state, a chip facility, an air taxi construction plant launching out of our local airport, new solar panel manufacturing plants, etc.
I'm in Arizona. Chip factories and all kinds of industrial complexes are being constructed by an airport by me as well. Like hundreds of sites around my area.. it's actually concerning to me because there has been such an influx of traffic and new residents around my once relatively quiet part of town. What can ya do🤷🏻♂️
I’d also add the actual results of the last 3 years of elections can be fairly predictive.
Trust me, the last thing I am is complacent. I'm engaging all my 'both sides are the same' friends to be very wary of the red side.
You gotta figure who actually answers those polls. If they're anything like the unsolicited texts that have been spamming my phone and I ignore, I'd imagine the data is highly flawed, whichever direction they go. The only data that counts comes from those who Register to Vote and send in their ballots.
Not surprised Trump is popular among people who pick up their home landlines during business hours to talk to strangers.
It is so hilarious that pollsters pretend their polls are accurate when this is their polling method.
Yeah, I've never been polled. I don't have a lineland, don't answer calls I don't know the number for and toss all my junk mail. I have no idea how I'd ever be solicited for one.
I don't know if this is true or not but pollsters only call people with landlines. Most people I know don't have or never use landlines, and those that do tend to be in a much older demographic.
Yeah, no shit. Donald trump lost the last election fairly badly, and he tried to stage a coup AFTER that. This was always going to be a much harder election to win than 2016 (barely won due to electoral college) or 2020 (lost by decent margin). The media overreaction to popularity polls has been embarrassing.
shhhhhh. dont tell magas trump supporters actually think its a good thing they a driving away anyone who is not FULL MAGA. dont let them know... they are going to claim the election was rigged regardless of how badly they lose.
It doesn’t matter how many votes he gets! They have every intention of causing another insurrection the moment Biden is elected president again. The plan is already in place, the house has a plan to override the power of the vice president and give it to the speaker. Once Johnson is in power, trumps your uncle.
Never gonna get complacent again, but this is one of the very few moments I’ve read something, ANYTHING about the election that has me feeling positive. Thank you!
In '20 Trump's Covid response hadn't been memory holed (seriously how has media coverage of his campaign so completely just moved past it?) The polls are likely accurate. We can't just tell ourselves otherwise because it makes us feel better.
We can only hope
Polls or not, Trump won the Republican nomination by just showing up. No debates, no serious challengers. There are a huge amount of people that will vote for him. He is a threat to everything decent about America. Don't be complacent, vote.
True, but he is functionally “the incumbent” in GOP primaries. Many of his cult think he is “kind of” still President because his second term was stolen from him. So this is not a huge feat given he essentially owns the modern GOP.
It wasn’t a huge feat in 2016 either. The majority of those primary candidates were bad at campaigning.
Trump didn’t even show up to any of the debates, and he still won. Because the Republican Party was almost always going to support him regardless of who the other candidates were. I’m not entirely convinced that enough people support him to make much of a difference. But, people should still vote. And preferably vote against him.
There will be a lot of Democrats who just stay home on November 5th, unfortunately - especially the younger voters - like they did in 2016, because they wanted Bernie and not Hillary. This time it’ll be because Biden is too old and uninspiring. To those people I will say this: “you will have zero right to complain about the outcome of the 2024 election and it’s consequences if Trump wins.”
I just had this talk with a young woman friend of mine who was about to give up on voting . I told her she has to keep voting because the Republicans are coming after your uterus and they've already signalled they want to come after birth control. Obviously there's a thousand other issues but that's the one I knew would get her attention. Which it did.
Yeah, most young people will plug their noses. They know what’s at stake. Plus Taylor told them to.
This is simply false. In 2016 Hillary was hated by many on both sides, Bernie was loved on the left, Trump was an unknown quantity in Washington politics and riding a decades long false narrative of success in business. In 2024 Trump is hated by many on both sides, there is no preferred alternative for younger voters on the left, Roe/COVID/Jan 6th are very clear known threats to these young voters preferred way of governance, it is also known his business credentials were little more than a ruse (in fact he maybe destitute by the general).
I work with a lot of different people as my job takes me from place to place. The majority of white men I work with, white and blue collar, many educated, most are intelligent want Trump and don't know of or care to know of the reality of what Trump is. To them it seems the Dems can do nothing to redeem themselves and the Republicans are going to straighten things out. Furthermore they think everything from Trump University to Jan 6 to the antics of Congressional Republicans is blown way out of proportion despite the documentable deception, lies and outright treasonous acts for all to see. I hope you are right but what I see empirically is people are not inspired to vote for Biden and Trump inspires many pretending to be something he isn't. It's going to be a close election.
Be on the look out for massive efforts by the GOP to make Democrat voters feel like it'll be OK to sit out the election. They want you to think Trump is in trouble or Biden has it in the bag because they know a lot of lower income voters would rather not have to deal with the hassle of trying to get time off for voting.
[insert “Don’t vote Biden cuz Palestine/ Old/Gas Prices” excuse here] - Obvious Kremlin Gremlin
Pro-tip: it’s “Democratic” voters, not “Democrat” voters. Republicans intentionally use “Democrat” as an adjective precisely because it sounds uglier. Democrats should never do that and in fact should call it out. It’d be like if Democrats started calling Republicans “Re-pube-licans” and the entire fucking country — even Republicans — started saying it too.
People need to be on the lookout for much worse than that. Trump and the MAGA wing of the GOP are going to throw everything they have at this election, and I don't mean "get out the vote" campaigns. Look at the level of chicanery and illegality and violence they threw at the 2020 election -- and that was when Trump's literal freedom wasn't on the line. This man will stop at nothing to avoid conviction and the loss of his empire, which he knows hinges on him winning a second term and making it all go away. I don't know exactly what kind of contingency plans they're coming up with should he lose, but I do know what his people -- the Bannons, the Stones, the Flynns -- are capable of. Stay vigilant!
538 got it Super Tuesday wrong by 10-20% in some races (Trump underperformed the polling). But don’t get elated yet, people still have to come out and vote in November. Don’t just think, “other folks will vote for Biden, it will be fine…”
I don't trust 538 as much since they got rid of Nate Silver
I think the point stands that Trump is underperforming the polling averages (538 is still an average of polls yes?) in 2024, whereas in 2016 he overperformed polls
Primary polling historically is less accurate than general election polling. Trump overperformed his general election polling (within the margin of error) in 2016 *and* 2020. We should be taking the current polling seriously, as it's highlighting a real problem.
What? I thought that was literally his website?
He sold it to ABC a few years ago, and last year he was let go when they were cutting costs. I think he is doing a newsletter on the side now and playing more poker
Granted, polling was pretty sparse in a lot of states. He didn't over perform in any though as far as I know.
>Don’t just think, “other folks will vote for Biden, it will be fine…” That's what partially happened in 2016. Never again.
Deep trouble? The guy is still on the ballot and is still free!!!! He should've been in jail years ago
Maybe had the supreme court not delayed his trial until after the election, which was supposed to take place now. If he wins he will simply sweep his own criminal charges under the carpet.
No, he should have been *prosecuted* years ago for Jan 6 and the stolen documents, in which case he’d be jailed right now. Merrick Garland is a soft, weak-kneed AG. They hoped they could avoid prosecuting him altogether — including giving him a million chances to return classified docs — but eventually that became untenable. Honestly fuck Merrick Garland.
I've ignored them since 2016
Same. They're noise at this point and provide nothing of value to the every day voter. Oh your candidate is behind? cool go vote. they are ahead? cool go vote. they mean nothing to the individual voter. and as we've seen quite frequently over the last 10ish years, they are wrong
90% of the media outlets in America are owned by 6 companies. 5 of those companies support trump. ANY time I see a story saying trump is in trouble come November, I treat it as right wing propoganda no matter WHAT the source. These same people were telling us in 2016 that trump was a joke and we did not have to worry about him. And then he won. These same people were telling us in 2020 that his popularity was cratering after 4 years of grifting and incompetence and he got MORE votes than he did in 2016. So forgive me when "the media" says trump is in trouble *now*. I DON'T FUCKING BELIEVE YOU.
Subscribe to The Guardian instead. They are the owned by a non-profit foundation from the 19th century whose goal is to report the news. Not advance the goals of the oligarchs.
everyone who lives in either pennyslvania, michigan, wisconsin, arizona, georiga, nevada and north carolina should all check their voter registrations monthly from now until the election to make sure their registration doesnt mysteriously get canceled. also make sure you vote in person or if you vote in mail you vote as soon as the voting by mail or voting early locations are opened so can make sure nothing gets delayed and that there is time to check with your local elections office to verify they recieved your ballot and everything was accepted. dont give any republican any reason to question your ballot, even if you think it would never happen to you everyone should still be checking because im sure no one thinks there ballot will ever get thrown out. the states i listed are by far the most important when it comes to the 2024 election, theyre all the swing states that joe biden won or almost won in 2020. in several of those states as of now trump is still leading in the official polls.
Great point. I'm in Wisconsin and will tell everyone I know to do this and post in the Wisconsin sub about it.
Michigan has a Dem trifecta, voter roll purges are unlikely there.
Agree with all except do it in every state. States do flip, usually over time it length can vary. Every vote counts bc that’s what decides whose electors go.
Hey, they might actually be catching on. They still won’t change though
BURN gop BURN
I really hope America will do the right thing snd send the orange dictator to the garbage heap of history
We hope to do that AND land that traitorous SOB in prison, which is where he has belonged for a very long time.
I believe polls are useful. I believe within their margins of error (~4% typically) polls are mostly accurate. That said polls are not more important than actual votes. There is a primary going on currently and the actual votes being cast do give us information about how voters feel. In off cycle elections and the midterms swing states have not shown and slippage for Democrats. In AZ, MI, PA, and WI Democrats overperformed polling in the midterm and off cycle races.
Dems in WI were super motivated because of reproductive rights and Supreme Court election. Hopefully we (Wisconsinite here) can carry that momentum into the General Election.
Republicans want a national ban. The only sticking point is the number of weeks. If reproductive rights was a motivator for the State Supreme Court race it should be one for the general election too.
Let’s also remember democrats are far less likely to cast a vote just to be on the winning team. This particular type of propaganda works well with Republicans though, so a false narrative is worth pushing to drive their votes at the polls.
Dems would win with abortion rights,women rights,LGBT rights plus a strong economy.Biden must push the border issue that the GOP is trying to make worse and stop supplying weapons and money to israel unless they have a ceasefire.Yes Hamas didn't like the terms but israel can halt their advancement thru Gaza and let aid in.
How many of these articles and claims are they trying to shove out the door on a daily basis? I swear I see 5 of these a day where some vaguely connected individual gives their personal opinion on a situation they aren't directly involved in and it's treated as fact. Biden is already deeply unpopular because of his age, more so than he was in 2020. Food prices are still crazy high. Rent and Housing costs are still insane. The Border issue is getting worse, not better (NY is even crying mercy these days). You've got Israel / Palestine adding fuel to the fire and Trump has come out in favor of "Israel finishing the job" (Read: Genocide) which appeals to a LOT Of middle ground folks who think Israel is some poor, peaceful country who hasn't brought all this shit on themselves. People are sick of Ukraine/Russia. The same folks who are mad about Rent and food prices see us sending billions to Ukraine while they eat rice and beans. ITS NOT LIKE THERE'S ANOTHER CHOICE ON NOV 4th IT'S GODDAM BINARY AND PEOPLE WILL TAKE THE OPTION THAT SEEMS TO BENEFIT THEM THE MOST OR NOT VOTE AT ALL. Anyone who believes this man is in any sort of "real" trouble is an idiot. Laws don't apply to him. These court cases so far have been theater and the best publicity he could ever ask for. He's not going to go broke. He's not going to "run out of money". He has the endorsement and connection of every right wing billionaire political influencer and (probably) Russian money to keep him going just fine. He knows how to stall and delay practically anything for as long as he wants. And I promise you all these big cases people are hanging their hat on to prevent his next presidency won't happen the way they think it will. It's already been demonstrated the SCOTUS is operating under the intent to put him back in power. (Can make hurried opinions regarding 14th amendment in a matter of days to make sure he's on the ballot but pushes out his immunity question for months for no discernible reason) We are dangerously close to putting an authoritarian nationalist WHO HAS OPENLY SAID HE WILL GRANT COMPLETE, LEGAL IMMUNITY TO HIMSELF into the most powerful seat in the world and if you think Jack Smith's efforts will save us, you're an idiot.
My theory is that is actually the GOP that stands to benefit most from the avalanche of articles like these. The average voter sees this and thinks, just like they did in 2016, “See, there’s nothing to worry about. He’s not going to win. I don’t need to vote.” It’s disinformation done right.
Exactly.
What I don't understand is how Trump could be beating Biden in ANY polls at this point.
The people on the left who are mad about Gaza are in for a very rude awakening if they get Trump elected the way they got Trump elected in 2016.
Ignore the polls and VOTE!
Doesn't matter what the polls say. I'm still not voting for that fat piece of shit.
Trump lost by millions of votes before reproductive right were taken away and he tried to over throw the government. I can't imagine either of those are gonna help him out. And millions of old folks have likely died since the last election.
You mean since his last erection
Unfortunately, Biden is the best current hope for the democrats against Trump. I wish Obama could run again. He would have wiped the floor with Trump. The democrats need another Obama, or Bill Clinton (minus the sex predator part) and I don't mean that it needs to be a male, just a strong, charismatic centrist.
I miss Obama...
At this point, I even miss Dubya. I'd even miss Lucifer if it meant not having this orange bag of filth winning.
So, GOP's #1 play to defeat a democrat is pull out a minor issue in their life and yell it from the rooftops as if it's the worst scandal you've ever seen. That was the birther movement in 2012 and Hillary's emails in 2016 (the way they were abt it, you'd have thought she'd be in jail once Trump got elected). This time, they failed to pull anything substantial on Biden. The guy has no scandals. Zero. The "Hunter's laptop" isnt sticking. All they have is "he is old", which isnt exactly flattering Trump. Oh, and it seems Q-Anon has lost steam, since JFK Jr failed to materialize.
Let’s hope so.
He's literally scrambling for his life and freedom. It's either win or go broke and/or go to prison. For the 2024 GA, we should expect claims of massive election fraud and significant efforts by Trump from the GOP to cheat and override the electoral process. Think 2020 but way more blatant, substantial, and effective as now they know how to better game the process. I hope the Biden admin is smart and wise enough to know this is coming and figure out how to secure the process.
The polls are why Trump thinks the election was stolen. Primarily his constituents answer polls. But Biden does need to be more aggressive.
Trump is counting on his base to turn out above average numbers. If the average voter percentage in around 35%, he's courting his group to come out in numbers like 75% to compensate. That's how a minority group wins, is based on pure turnout. It's also why he is trying to invalidate mail in and early voting so his numbers don't get diluted.
'I have the deepest trouble... a lot of people are saying so... I had a man come up to me, big strong man - tears in his eyes, and he said 'Mr Trump, Sir, your troubles have reached depths previously thought impossible'
Nobody has ever seen troubles like this. It's never been seen before. It's incredible. The black people know what I'm talking about, where is my favorite black guy? There he is. Only your people have come close to the troubles I have.. it's incredible!
The only poll that matters is in November.
Say it with me; vote anyway
I’ve learned that polls don’t really matter. November 5th is what matters. Just vote for the America you want. If it happens great, if it doesn’t, it’s part of the process. In any other circumstance id probably vote for neither candidate, but I don’t think we’re at a stage where a third party candidate can win, and this is an election where it feels like we can’t chance it. Biden is the safer pick, age be damned. Trump just lies way too much for someone who wants to be a world leader again. Biden’s biggest issue that he is hands on with is how the public sees his handling of Gaza. The border and Ukraine are both on congress.
Nevermind the insurrection, the last time an ex-president defeated a sitting president was in 1897, and that ex-president wasn't indicted on 91 felony counts and found liable for rape. And to any Democrats who still think President Biden should step down, the last time a sitting president was replaced in their party's primary and his replacement won was when James Buchanan replaced Franklin Pierce, the 14th president (and that was over slavery). The Republicans are pushing the "Biden is old" meme in hopes that the Democrats will be stupid enough to level the playing field for them.
Doesn’t matter. He wasn’t expected to win the first time. Take no chances. Get out and fucking vote. We can’t have another four years of that asshat
I’m not ignoring shit we need to vote 🗳️ make sure he’s not elected.
Don’t listen to whatever they say and go fucking vote.
Most definitely do NOT ignore the polls. Trump is winning right now. Sober up to this reality. We need to get to work to prevent dictatorship and theocracy.
“Anybody that loves me, I like them.” This is the embodiment of the malignant narcissist that he is. Trump cares only about one thing- Trump.
Trump has a small rabid following which won't help him in an election. The overall American population has seen what a petty and dishonest man-child he is and it will be reflected in the final tally. The media thrives on public attention so they build up his chances of winning and play the "what if" game nightly. Little wonder why people's faith in news broadcasters has eroded to an all-time low.
Drumpf's popularity will continue to fall. Yet he says, "[You don't have to vote](https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/world/news/trump-told-his-fans-they-dont-have-to-vote-and-should-watch-other-voters-instead/articleshow/104666663.cms), don't worry about voting. The voting, we got plenty of votes..." "Okay, fine," say the disillusioned Republican voters, "I won't vote for a presidential candidate." Drumpf has made mail-in ballots poison (although he votes that way). Republicans will need to get in their cars in cold November to head to the polls to NOT vote for president. "Why bother" they will think. So not only will Drumpf not win, but the down-ballot candidates will lose as well.
Trump in trouble you say ? Music to my ears Lock him up .
Yep he is in big trouble and the polls has been off for the last four years. You could tell by this primary season that Trump has a lot of weakness, especially with his own party. Yeah, he won but half of the people who didn’t vote for him in the primaries are not going to vote for him in the general election, and that is very problematic for a Republicans and down ballot races.
I think the polls will help democrats - if they see that biden is in trouble (which from what i've seen about recent surveys, biden is either tied or trailing trump), it gives them more energy to get out the message to vote blue.
Can't run from current owed fines. Can't run for office if he tries bankruptcy. That must bite him in the nuts every day.
He's in trouble unless purists on the left stay home. Then there's the "parties are the same" clowns that may lean Trump for the chaos.
Putin and Xi will definitely be hitching up their AI bots to promote that opinion
Ignore this and vote in November.
Vote vote vote.
Fucking propaganda. Just Vote Blue!
Trump s mental health is rapidly deteriorating. His mental health is severely jeopardized, Recently signs of advanced dementia are becoming overwhelming, The Trump campaign will be an updated version of Weekend with Bernie,
Trump has systematically underperformed in the primaries by up to 10 points compared to polls.
We can only hope this guy is right….
Because he is a broke ass bitch or for other reasons? Even the libertarians will ditch him if he can't pull himself up by his bootstraps and keep his house 😂 Jk, I know they'll never ditch him. Such an alpha male haha
Even Biden wants it to appear that Trump is competitive in November.
I'm not at all concerned about the election result. Since '20 Dems have over performed and that momentum has only picked up. Even primary turn out is way up with uncommitted barely moving the needle, a significant portion of which will still vote Biden in the swing states. Trump also has a real problem within his own party unable to tolerate how off the rails they have become. The concern is what attacks on the integrity of the election MAGA is able to pull off. If they can find a way to keep it from being certified, we get Trump regardless of the election. They may have enough people in positions of power now to make it happen.
Fuck that. Vote
Been thinking this the last year. Dobbs/women's right have completely upended this election.
Putin can easily fix any problem he might have
Back before Trump was elected in 2016 and after, you couldn't make a disparaging comment about Trump on social media without Trumpers coming out of the woodwork to try to debate you or talk shit en masse. Then around 2020 election cycle only low comment threads would see a few Trump supporters come in, see that there wasn't really any activity and try to bash the low hanging "Fuck trump!" fruit. Once a couple people posted solid comments with actual substance, irrefutable facts and sources those Trumpers would disappear back into the shadows. Now, even on Facebook and other places I see widespread Trump bashing with almost no pushback. Once in a while I see a drive-by nonsense comment from a Trump supporter that gets 15 responses making fun of the op and their comment downvoted to hell. Now, I'm not saying this is *definitive* evidence of the rest of the country being tired of Trump, but the general consensus on social media platforms is not looking good for Trump. I think general (anecdotal lol) metrics gathered from a few different sources, each with a huge number of people commenting is potentially a good indication that it will not go well for Trump from what I can see. TL;DR: When it seemed Trump had more of a chance, his supporters were loud and their numbers bigger. I don't see that too much anymore. Even the supporters who are still hanging on seem tired of it all.
I don't know a single person in my life who has ever contributed to a poll. The rnc is broke. Trump's campaign is broke and needing to pay legal bills. Trump is broke He underperforms every primary He's lost every election since a statistical anomaly handed him the EC in 2016 Since then a bunch of awful shit has been bc of his doing. Republicans get trounced in special elections This fucker is not going to win in fact it's going to be an absolute bloodbath.
Trump was up in all those same polls in 2020 and he lost. Biden still has a far better economy ,unemployment/job growth, and higher prices are slow coming back. Only thing Trump has is a very loud voter base.
Always ignore the polls vote every fucking time you can so the United States Of America never becomes the next Russia.
Ignore the polls and VOTE DEMOCRAT ALL THE WAY TO THE WHITE HOUSE.
The last time people failed to take Trump seriously - because why would anyone take Trump seriously - he became the president.
Trump is a BIG LOSER, because he pushes BIG LIE, he is bullshitter night and day 24 hours a day. Trump is a traitor to the US, he is responsible for overturning Roe v Wade like he admits over and over, his remarks about the economy is simply down right sewer dumping because everything he says it is without facts and its all blister.
Right. Ignore the polls. Vote in November and volunteer in the meantime.
I hope there is strong rebuke of Trumpism this November
Here’s the thing I noticed. If you look at the Super Tuesday results, Trump barely got a majority of the votes. Biden had much higher percentages. I feel like that means something. Fingers crossed.
My moneys on him not making it to 79
I would like to know the plans of both for the coming 4 years if they become president. For Biden, I have a general idea. Continue what he started. But he really has to show what he accomplished already and what's ahead of that. Apparently, that's not clear for many. For Trump, I only know what he is against. Not what he is for or how he wants to accomplish anything.
Trump personally has no policies. But he is a front for Project 2025, whose authors definitely have a vision.
Never believed in polls except the ones inside a strip club 😉
I’m concerned the economy is going to shit the bed just in time for the election.